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Speaker 1: stop in Louisiana one eight seven seven Hope and Why

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Speaker 1: or text hope and Why four six seven three six

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Speaker 1: eight nine one eight hundred five to two zero zero

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Speaker 1: in Wyoming or visit one eight hundred gambler dot net

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Speaker 1: in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from

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Speaker 1: the Volume Podcast Network. I am Shad Mellman, Chief Content

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Speaker 1: Officer of the Action Network. I will be joined as

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Speaker 1: I always am, by my bff, my companion, Michael Padre

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Speaker 1: Professional Better, Simon Hunter, et Oh, Simon Chad Brother. I'm

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Speaker 1: excited for today's episode. You know how much I love

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Speaker 1: talking politics. Listen, I'm glad you're previewing it. So uh.

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Speaker 1: We have a special guest on today, Alex Keeney, who

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Speaker 1: is better known as Keen Dog and host of the

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Speaker 1: popular Star Spangled Gamblers podcast. He is a vet in

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Speaker 1: in the up and coming world of online prediction markets.

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Speaker 1: We have been talking about this at Action for years.

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Speaker 1: Since we launched, we have been writing stories about really

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Speaker 1: the political betting markets, which is where a lot of

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Speaker 1: this interest comes in and for news junkies or those

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Speaker 1: interested in betting on or investing in the world of

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Speaker 1: politics world events. Betting exchanges have become a go to

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Speaker 1: way to invest and profit on the stuff we see

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Speaker 1: every day in the news. And I will tell you

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Speaker 1: right now. And I'm gonna want to ask Alice about this,

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Speaker 1: Like the twenty presidential election and the presidential elections, those markets,

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Speaker 1: we're predicting what the outcome was going to be long

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Speaker 1: before the polls were showing it, and we're in some

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Speaker 1: cases more predictive than the polls, both with Trump and

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Speaker 1: with Biden. Um, Alex, I feel like doing a podcast

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Speaker 1: like this is a long time coming, especially now when

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Speaker 1: there's so much heat in political markets, and I know

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Speaker 1: this is broader than that. Uh, tell me how you

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Speaker 1: get into this? How did I get into it? Well?

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Speaker 1: First of all, Um, Chad Simon, thank you for for

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Speaker 1: for having me on to represent all of the political

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Speaker 1: gambling degenerates out there in the Twitter sphere. Um. I

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Speaker 1: got into it probably the way a lot of people do,

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Speaker 1: which is they clicked on a link that they thought

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Speaker 1: was a joke and it turned out to be real. So, UM,

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Speaker 1: my first trade was I was batting on whether or

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Speaker 1: not Brett Kavanaugh would make it onto the Supreme Court,

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Speaker 1: if you can remember that kind of nasty and contentious

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Speaker 1: period in politics. And I made like triple my money

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Speaker 1: on my first trade. I just figured, you know, gambling

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Speaker 1: was going to be easy. Picking winners was gonna be easy.

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Speaker 1: It would always be that way, And it turns out

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Speaker 1: that it's you know, harder than that. But uh, I

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Speaker 1: was hooked by success, as many many betters probably are.

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Speaker 1: And what is like what's your background? Were you? Are

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Speaker 1: you a trader by trade? Are you a gambling fiend? Like?

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Speaker 1: How do you even decide to click on that? I'm

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Speaker 1: like actually terrified of gambling, like it it like literally

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Speaker 1: keeps me up at night. But I know that I

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Speaker 1: win more often than I lose, so I can put

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Speaker 1: myself back to sleep. Do you have a real job? Um?

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Speaker 1: I do? I do. I live in l A, so

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Speaker 1: I do all that like fake l A stuff um

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Speaker 1: like content marketing and digital media and whatever. But um,

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Speaker 1: I actually worked in politics for m a while in

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Speaker 1: my career, and I got into TV and didn't feel

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Speaker 1: like people love me enough and TV, so I thought

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Speaker 1: I'd kind of prove them wrong by For some reason,

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Speaker 1: I thought betting on politics would be a good way

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Speaker 1: to prove prove the haters wrong. But you know, it's

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Speaker 1: my competitive side that'll show them, Alex right right, show

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Speaker 1: those beta cuts. That's a that's an industry term, like

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Speaker 1: I know we're going to talk about like the difference

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Speaker 1: between prediction markets and betting on a game at a

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Speaker 1: sports book. And before we get into sort of the

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Speaker 1: details of this specifically, can you shed any light on

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Speaker 1: what you saw in um with specifically the presidential market

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Speaker 1: between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Well, this is experience

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Speaker 1: with that. This is a very sensitive subject. I might

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Speaker 1: I might trigger some political gamblers here, um that. Well,

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Speaker 1: the thing that was so funny about the election was

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Speaker 1: is that all the you know, professional big time winners,

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars a year of winnings, all these guys

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Speaker 1: thought it was gonna be a blowout election, and all

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Speaker 1: the kind of meat heads that they wrote off as

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Speaker 1: they used to call them, maga money, you know, they

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Speaker 1: just love Donald Trump and would bet on them everywhere,

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Speaker 1: kind of had a right that it was going to

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Speaker 1: be a really close election and um, not a blowout.

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Speaker 1: So the pros I think actually lost money or or

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Speaker 1: really underperformed in that election. Um when Joe Biden you know,

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Speaker 1: did not talking conspiracy theory level almost losing an election,

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Speaker 1: but compared to you know what the mainstream media, Chuck Todd,

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Speaker 1: John King were predicting. Uh, it was a fairly close election,

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Speaker 1: so it was there was a lot of um, A

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Speaker 1: lot of money was made by people who were written

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Speaker 1: off as idiots. This is the truth. Yeah, I would

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Speaker 1: say most professionals said that if there wasn't the whole

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Speaker 1: right in ballot, probably would be a different present. That's

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Speaker 1: why the big flip happened. Where these pros they saw

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Speaker 1: what was happening At two three in the morning that

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Speaker 1: election night, the ballots started coming in that were mailed in,

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Speaker 1: and that's where they got off. So again, you're right,

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Speaker 1: a lot of pros I know, did lose big, but man,

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Speaker 1: did they get it back once the info came out there,

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Speaker 1: Like dude, there's millions of votes being counted and guess what,

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Speaker 1: a lot of them were Democratic. I mean, that was again,

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Speaker 1: we'll never see it again because I don't think wellever

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Speaker 1: another election like that with COVID obviously, but that was

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Speaker 1: really cool watching Lifetime. Like Chad talked about the Action Network,

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Speaker 1: I kept refreshing the homepage and just kept watching Biden's

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Speaker 1: odds go from what was it like plus two fifty

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Speaker 1: of the peak all of a sudden six am, seven am.

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Speaker 1: It's minus was like, holy sh it, Like this whole

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Speaker 1: thing flipped like from that three am till seven am

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Speaker 1: in the morning. That was pretty wild, right, right, Like

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Speaker 1: the way that the markets are kind of real time

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Speaker 1: up and down, there was the chance, I think that

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Speaker 1: three o'clock before dawn to start buying you know, Joe

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Speaker 1: Biden to win Georgia, Joe Biden to win Arizona. Uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, and uh a lot of his money was

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Speaker 1: made while the world was sleeping. So explain the difference

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Speaker 1: between the exchanges and the sports books and where it's

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Speaker 1: legal and sort of how betting in this framework is

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Speaker 1: different than betting on a game. Well, can I tell

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Speaker 1: you the best part first? Well, first of all, you

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Speaker 1: don't have to be right to win money, um, and

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Speaker 1: you can the answer in advance, so you don't necessarily

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Speaker 1: even need to like watch the game to know how

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Speaker 1: it's gonna end. So what I mean by that is, um,

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Speaker 1: a lot of times you're betting against you know, you

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Speaker 1: just need to be a step ahead of the news

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Speaker 1: because we're trading on effectively a stock market, right, and

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Speaker 1: so every time a new news story comes out, Uh,

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Speaker 1: the odds of just you know, you're dealing with human

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Speaker 1: beings who are on the other side of the trade.

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Speaker 1: They're panicking. They're wondering if they, you know, read Joe

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Speaker 1: Biden wrong, or if that thing that Joe Manson just

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Speaker 1: said from the Senate did he really mean what he

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Speaker 1: just said. So people are freaking out. In real time,

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Speaker 1: you have the opportunity to sell or to buy more.

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Speaker 1: And really you just need to be smarter than the

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Speaker 1: average trader in that particular market. So you don't have

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Speaker 1: to be right. You just have to be a little

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Speaker 1: bit smarter than the other people who are playing. And

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Speaker 1: sometimes that's not that hard. Um. And then in some

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Speaker 1: cases you can just learn the answer. I mean, there's

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Speaker 1: a bet right now on whether or not Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: will be indicted in Georgia by a grand jury that

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Speaker 1: doesn't have the legal authority to make a criminal indictment.

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Speaker 1: You can get the ad the answer in advance and win.

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Speaker 1: So it's um. I think in some ways it's actually

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Speaker 1: a great deal easier than sports betting. Where can I

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Speaker 1: do it? Uh? The biggest betting exchange that's legal is

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Speaker 1: a website called predict it uh, and we have a

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Speaker 1: promotion on Star Spangled Gamblers to get you like two

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Speaker 1: of matching money to start, So there's the promotional content.

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Speaker 1: Predicted is the largest legal betting exchange. They offer several

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Speaker 1: hundred bets, mostly on elections, but also on like a

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Speaker 1: wide variety of other things. Again it's a stock market, uh, prices,

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Speaker 1: you can sell, you can buy, you can sell in

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Speaker 1: and out at your level of comfort. There's a website

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Speaker 1: called Calci that has a serious amount of Silicon Valley

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Speaker 1: funny money that's building a wider net of prediction markets

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Speaker 1: so literally like the weather. Uh, it's like truly degenerate stuff,

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Speaker 1: but also you know CNBC type stuff too, in addition

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Speaker 1: to CNN type stuff. And then there's a third website

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Speaker 1: that d gens like myself know about and used, but

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Speaker 1: it's I don't think you can using the United States

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Speaker 1: anymore called poly market. It is blockchain to nominated, but

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Speaker 1: they post fascinating and profitable markets as well. So those

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Speaker 1: are your three big players. I know I want something

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Speaker 1: to jumping because I know he's got some question for you.

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Speaker 1: But you say you can find the answer before. I

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Speaker 1: don't really know what that means. Well, can I give

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Speaker 1: you example? Okay? Um, most people are really bored by

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Speaker 1: the United States Senate, like, are you kind of bored

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Speaker 1: by the time the word comes out of my mouth? Us, Senate,

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Speaker 1: I'm getting some nods here, okay, And most people are

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Speaker 1: really bored by like you know, your average cavert secretarary,

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Speaker 1: you know, Janet yelling at the Treasury or something. Well,

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Speaker 1: when Joe Biden was nominating people to be in his

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Speaker 1: in his Treasury secretaries and labor and whatever, it got

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Speaker 1: to a point where, you know, every bet has an

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Speaker 1: expiration date, it has to hit by certain date and

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Speaker 1: then it pays out. And it got to the point

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Speaker 1: where if you added up the amount of time using

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Speaker 1: Senate procedure that it takes to confirm the nominee, it's

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Speaker 1: all written down, it's all written down somewhere, and you

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Speaker 1: start adding up the time for each nominee, you could

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Speaker 1: reach the conclusion that most of them were not going

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Speaker 1: to be confirmed, at which point the smart thing to

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Speaker 1: do was to buy, you know, bets at the ten

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Speaker 1: multiple that you know that paid like a slot machine.

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Speaker 1: So again the point is, you know, if you know

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Speaker 1: the question and you know where to look for the answer, um,

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Speaker 1: oftentimes you can get a tremendous edge with you know,

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Speaker 1: just a couple of hours work. What are you're you're

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Speaker 1: just betting on the fact that other people aren't going

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Speaker 1: to do this work right, or that you know, you know,

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Speaker 1: politics probably like sports in the sense that people are

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Speaker 1: into it tend to think they know everything, and you know,

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Speaker 1: of course no one knows everything. So you know, you're

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Speaker 1: you're batting against people's hubrists. Literally, you know it's a

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Speaker 1: paramutual bet. You're betting against the guy on the other

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Speaker 1: side of the trade. What are some example of the

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Speaker 1: market you can trade in when you're doing this, like

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Speaker 1: like presidential nominees, world events. Oh yeah, I mean you

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Speaker 1: name it right now. Of course you know who's going

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Speaker 1: to be president or you know it's Rhonda Santis is

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Speaker 1: gonna win um mass mandates on airplanes? That's one you

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Speaker 1: can bet on. Who is gonna be the mayor of Philadelphia.

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Speaker 1: I don't know that you can bank that exact trade

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Speaker 1: right now, but if there's an election pending, they will

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Speaker 1: eventually be able to. Yes, the mayor of San Jose

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Speaker 1: is a trade right now, and it's it's it's it's

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Speaker 1: a good value plate too, if I may say so. Well,

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Speaker 1: like the Mayor of San Jose before you decided that

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Speaker 1: was going to be something you wanted to participate in.

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Speaker 1: How much research had you done? What made you realize

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Speaker 1: there was value? Well, um, you know there are trends

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Speaker 1: in politics. There's trends in every marketplace. One of the

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Speaker 1: trends in politics right now we're kind of very liberal

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Speaker 1: cities becoming frustrated with um, sort of progressive leadership. Not

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Speaker 1: trying to pass judgment here, that's not what we do. Um.

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Speaker 1: But you can see the trend in other cities like

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Speaker 1: San Jose and you look at, you know, a marketplace

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Speaker 1: that is giving like an eight to one shot to

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Speaker 1: the Harvard grad with experience in the business community against

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Speaker 1: sort of hockey city hall insider. You know, you can

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Speaker 1: start to see the tape replaying from some of these

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Speaker 1: other news stories we've seen so um. You know, it's

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Speaker 1: sort of that level of awareness that you probably have

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Speaker 1: as a sports better for you know, your own you know,

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Speaker 1: one eight hundred eight eight nine nine se eight nine

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Speaker 1: Are there markets where you feel like you can see

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Speaker 1: enough patterns over time you don't need to do a

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Speaker 1: lot of research before you decide to invest. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Um.

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Speaker 1: I worked on Capital Hill for five years, so I

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Speaker 1: feel like I have a pretty intuitive understanding of how

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Speaker 1: a senator will vote or uh, you know, if the

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Speaker 1: Congress is interested in something or if they're just blowing

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Speaker 1: smoke up the sort of mass of proverbial voters. Um.

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Speaker 1: But you know, it's nothing that people can't learn, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's all everything. It's public, like there's is all public information.

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Speaker 1: You know, if you if you care enough to read

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Speaker 1: the New York Times or Wall Street Journal in the morning,

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Speaker 1: you've already got an edge over most of the people

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Speaker 1: who are betting because they are not doing that, believe

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Speaker 1: it or not. What is the amount of money you

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Speaker 1: can trade on these exchanges? So the grand daddy of

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Speaker 1: them all predicted is capped by the government unfortunately at

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Speaker 1: eight fifty of that. Now there's workarounds. But Calci the

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Speaker 1: Silicon Valley you know money bags company, Uh, their limit

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Speaker 1: is k and um Polly market out there in blockchain Netherland.

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Speaker 1: There's no limit there. So um just depends on what

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Speaker 1: you want to bet on it where the action is cleared.

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Speaker 1: So the biggest market predicted as a limit of eight

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Speaker 1: and fifty bucks right, the next one, which is sort

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Speaker 1: of the venture backed, high high flying startup, you can

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Speaker 1: bet up K. So do you do this for a living?

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Speaker 1: Is this how you make the majority of your money? No? Okay,

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Speaker 1: I don't have the I don't want to sound like

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Speaker 1: a weenye man, but I couldn't imagine being one of

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Speaker 1: those guys pushing around, you know, like one to million

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Speaker 1: dollar bank roll, trying to grind out a couple of

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Speaker 1: grand a week on the You know, that hustle is

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Speaker 1: to one of them respect to you man, So in

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Speaker 1: these exchanges, then the reason I ask these questions is

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Speaker 1: because are there sharps? Are there squares? Like? How does

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Speaker 1: the market work? Yeah, they're there are a number of

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Speaker 1: people who there aren't a lot. There are a number

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Speaker 1: of people who are probably earning in the hundred thousand

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Speaker 1: dollar range during this full time. Um, there are they're

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Speaker 1: they're wonderful nicknames for the squares out there. There was

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Speaker 1: the first is the maga money. Trump's out of office,

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Speaker 1: so that kind of dumb maga money has proceeded. Now

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Speaker 1: it's the Biden squares. The Biden squares are the people

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Speaker 1: who made easy money betting on Joe Biden but in

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Speaker 1: the election and just been giving it back. So uh yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, any any time that you can bet against,

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Speaker 1: especially a partisan lightning rod of a candidate or someone

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Speaker 1: that's got kind of a cult around them, like Bernie

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Speaker 1: Sanders or something like that, you can always get good odds.

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Speaker 1: You just gotta know where to look for. Yeah. I

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Speaker 1: think a lot of political betters talk all the time

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Speaker 1: about how easy it is if you just like you

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Speaker 1: talked about, pay attention to your history, you read up

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Speaker 1: on what's happening. It's never a surprise where you know, Bush,

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Speaker 1: We've all seen the movie Vice. We saw how this

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Speaker 1: man kind of got reelected. He did his eight years.

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Speaker 1: It was no shock that when Obama came up, he

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Speaker 1: was probably gonna win. And then after Obama was done,

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Speaker 1: a lot of pro said, you know, mathematically, it's probably

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Speaker 1: a seventy percent chance that a Republican will win after

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Speaker 1: a Democrat has just served eight years. That's not because

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Speaker 1: he actually thought Trump was gonna win. They're just looking

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Speaker 1: at straight math off the book of what historically has

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Speaker 1: happened in this country. So I would like to just

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Speaker 1: broke it down there where it's like a lot of

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Speaker 1: tea leaves, like these guys who put in the Times,

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Speaker 1: they can make money off of it, Like you talked

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Speaker 1: about it's hard because most of these books are gonna

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Speaker 1: have to be off shore. Like it's just America hasn't

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Speaker 1: legalized it yet, and it's like very slow for them

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Speaker 1: to figure out how to really take bets on these

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Speaker 1: political stuff. So it is kind of cool how he's

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Speaker 1: telling people like there are ways around it in this country.

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Speaker 1: I didn't even know about these sites. Let me put

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Speaker 1: a fire point on it, it's it's legal with constraints.

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Speaker 1: The constraints can be a little bit suffocating for you know,

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Speaker 1: a company like Predicted. In a company like Calcy, the

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Speaker 1: activity is more limited than you might like. So, assuming

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Speaker 1: our audience aren't really political insiders, what would be the

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Speaker 1: attraction of exchange to our regular, every day better What

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Speaker 1: does it sound investment strategy look like on these kind

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Speaker 1: of sites. And again, I don't think that people should

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Speaker 1: be deterred by not being an insider. I mean, if

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Speaker 1: you think about some of the worst the worst political predictions,

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Speaker 1: you know they tend to come from within the political system. Right,

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Speaker 1: we had the White House telling us there was no

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Speaker 1: inflation just a couple of months ago. Well, like we

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Speaker 1: all knew that onen't true. Look, you can't make someone

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Speaker 1: be a gambler, you can't make someone become an investor.

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Speaker 1: But if you pay cursory attention to what's going on,

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Speaker 1: you know, there's simple ways that you can grind out returns.

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Speaker 1: You know, like I said, batting against cult like candidates,

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Speaker 1: batting against something happening, Usually nothing happening is the most

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Speaker 1: likely outcome. Put liquidity into the marketplace for bets that

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Speaker 1: you know are closing in a month and the outcomes

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Speaker 1: already decided, But the bet itself doesn't you know, stuff

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Speaker 1: like that easy ways to generate returns pretty passively. So

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Speaker 1: would you say there's a lot of parallels between sports

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Speaker 1: betting political betting, like you're gathering trust info, signal versus noises,

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Speaker 1: bilo sell high Like do you do a lot of

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Speaker 1: that same stuff? Yeah? Yeah, absolutely. I mean I feel

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Speaker 1: safe for doing it because I can lay off my

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Speaker 1: risk anytime I want. You know, I know about the

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Speaker 1: most I'm gonna lose if I if I pull the

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Speaker 1: ejection seat. What's interesting about betting on politics is that

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Speaker 1: unlike sports, even though it's legal, there's still a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a church and state separation, and that the

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Speaker 1: betting isn't explicitly discussed during the game. It's not explicitly

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Speaker 1: discussed during the pregame shows. The broadcast companies are still

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Speaker 1: worried about alienating part of the audience because it's still

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Speaker 1: the majority of auto is that isn't interested in betting.

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00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:07,040
Speaker 1: That's not the case in politics, right, everything is about prediction. Prediction,

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Speaker 1: prediction that is the vernacular, that is the window through

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Speaker 1: which all of this is viewed. Could there be a

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Speaker 1: concern with bigger money compromising these markets? And and do

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00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:25,640
Speaker 1: you see these markets having an impact on how elections

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00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:30,720
Speaker 1: can be discussed or potentially determined. Political gambling isn't really new.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's like new as a consumer phenomenon. But

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Speaker 1: you know, if you go to work in a shiny

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Speaker 1: suit on K Street, or you're involved in your local,

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00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 1: you know, political scene in your hometown, those people's jobs

397
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:46,479
Speaker 1: are putting money in pockets of politicians, making bets, hedging

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Speaker 1: their interests so that when the elections settled, everyone's taken

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Speaker 1: care of. So I you know, if you if we

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Speaker 1: want to play a war of memes, I think that

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00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,960
Speaker 1: this is just a consumer consumers doing what political insiders

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Speaker 1: all already do. But I think it's useful, you know,

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Speaker 1: for the national dialogue. We only talk about things that

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Speaker 1: are real. We don't talk about memes. We don't talk

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Speaker 1: about conspiracy theories. We don't blame you know, immigrants or

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Speaker 1: the white working class or whatever the newest thing that

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00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:15,800
Speaker 1: we're supposed to dislike for you know, things happening in

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Speaker 1: the world that are we perceive as bad, Like you

409
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 1: have to be right, like if you're going to be

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00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:21,879
Speaker 1: in a casino, Like, if you're gonna put money on

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00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:23,440
Speaker 1: the line, you have to be really honest about what's

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Speaker 1: going on. So I think there's a lot of utility

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Speaker 1: for that, And frankly, it's more fun like when you

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Speaker 1: when you were playing in a casino and not a

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00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 1: government building, you are having fun. So I would love

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Speaker 1: to see more of that in the political discourse, and

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Speaker 1: that's what we do at Star Spangled Gamblers. What are

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Speaker 1: strategies Okay, if you're if you're sort of being successful here,

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00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:47,200
Speaker 1: what are the strategies that successful traders are using within

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Speaker 1: these predictive marketplaces you've mentioned one or two sort of

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00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:54,280
Speaker 1: being ahead of the news or really digging into the

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Speaker 1: arcane details. What are other ways in which you can

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Speaker 1: execute successfully? Well? Think you got to know your limits too.

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Speaker 1: I mean, do you guys bet on everything or you

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00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:06,880
Speaker 1: just you know, just football and basketball but never hockey,

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00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 1: or like, how do you guys do it? I've been

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00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:11,360
Speaker 1: at all, but I'm getting really good information, so it's

428
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 1: a little different. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Like if a guy

429
00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:16,920
Speaker 1: I trust hits me up, he's like, hey, there's a

430
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:20,800
Speaker 1: cricket torment starting India in two hours. It's England Verse

431
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:24,360
Speaker 1: whoever whales that betting on in this tournament. But it's

432
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:27,119
Speaker 1: a seven day long bet. It's like I'll bet it

433
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:28,560
Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden, in seven days, I'll

434
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:31,120
Speaker 1: see the plus a thousand of my account. But yeah,

435
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:33,440
Speaker 1: it's it might be a little different. I know Chad,

436
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 1: Chad bets a decent amount, especially because he works for

437
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:39,160
Speaker 1: a gambling company, but we're probably a little different than most. Yeah,

438
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 1: I like, I am mostly football, NFL football, then n

439
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:48,520
Speaker 1: b A and I usually let my fandom dictate my

440
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 1: betting habits. Not not to mean that I'm I'm betting

441
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 1: on teams that I love, but those are the sports

442
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 1: that I'm watching the most. That's where I feel most

443
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:01,919
Speaker 1: comfortable about my level of information versus what the market

444
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 1: is predicting. And so that, combined with the information I

445
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:11,440
Speaker 1: can glean from experts like Simon or experts like Matt Moore,

446
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 1: who's one of our NBA analysts, like I can start

447
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 1: to get a better sense of what makes me comfortable.

448
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:20,680
Speaker 1: And then like the other stuff, you know, college basketball,

449
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:25,360
Speaker 1: I'll usually just tail people and and see sort of

450
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 1: where I'm comfortable. But I'm usually doing that at a

451
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 1: much lower limit. That sounds exactly right for you know

452
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,119
Speaker 1: what we're doing over here? Adding on politics, you know,

453
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 1: know your strengths, you know your weaknesses. Uh, and make

454
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,359
Speaker 1: good friends to you know, help offset the gap in

455
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:42,680
Speaker 1: between the two. And I always wanted can trading in

456
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 1: these markets make you like a smarter or more informed

457
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 1: citizen or will it simply make you more cynical? I

458
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 1: don't know. I feel like that depends on the type

459
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,000
Speaker 1: of person you are. Do you think you would become

460
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 1: a happier, jolly or person de jailing with us now?

461
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 1: Like I stay away from politics because I feel like

462
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:00,880
Speaker 1: it's such a miserable world to be because it's like,

463
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:03,920
Speaker 1: not that we've all experienced it, but we've all been

464
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 1: there where you're at a family party and you're just

465
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 1: stuck with the two crazy uncles going back and forth,

466
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 1: where it's like, God, it doesn't matter, can't we just

467
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 1: enjoy this dinner? But I can't imagine betting on it

468
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,200
Speaker 1: because you're in it seven like you're always hearing the

469
00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 1: rumors always here in the news right right, and I

470
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:21,440
Speaker 1: mean so much the game is just like not letting

471
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:24,640
Speaker 1: yourself react to it while everyone else does listen I've

472
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:26,680
Speaker 1: worked in politics for years. I know a lot of

473
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:29,840
Speaker 1: people who are you know, high level political insiders. They're

474
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:31,879
Speaker 1: not as smart as the people who were doing this.

475
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:34,120
Speaker 1: Like people who are betting on politics only get paid

476
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 1: when they're right, so they really got to be right.

477
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:39,720
Speaker 1: And they're from the weirdest occupations. But you know, as

478
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 1: you just describe yourself, that the sense of trust that

479
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:45,640
Speaker 1: you have, you know with the public school vice principle

480
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 1: in the Midwest, you know when he texts you about

481
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 1: some random election in Oregon or something. Uh, that's like

482
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 1: a lot of the fun of it. You know, it's

483
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 1: like the community and the trust and like the excitement

484
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:59,159
Speaker 1: that exists as you develop your advantage in these markets.

485
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 1: So you just into something keen. This is This is

486
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 1: the last question I think, which is you really need

487
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,160
Speaker 1: to know your stuff in order to win. It does

488
00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 1: make you a little bit more informed. One are the

489
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 1: best places to get this information that allows you to

490
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:17,160
Speaker 1: feel informed enough to make a bet? Well, I mean

491
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 1: there's there's the easy stuff and the hard stuff that

492
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 1: you know. The easy stuff is you just go to

493
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 1: Star Spangled Gamblers. Uh, you know, we cover all of

494
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:27,200
Speaker 1: this stuff with you know, all the pros or contributors.

495
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 1: You can learn what they're trading on and what they're

496
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:33,160
Speaker 1: not trading on. But you know, Politico and Um punch Bowl,

497
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:36,880
Speaker 1: you know, have morning newsletters that are very insider friendly. Uh.

498
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,199
Speaker 1: Nothing is better than watching c spans that you can

499
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,680
Speaker 1: actually get into the minds of these people and how

500
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 1: they think. Um and frankly like watching you know, shitty

501
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:49,120
Speaker 1: partisan news. That's helpful too. You know, you you watch

502
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,359
Speaker 1: Rachel Mattow every night and you'll know what you know,

503
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 1: like white ladies with cats who are upset about stuff.

504
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 1: You know, you'll understand how they're thinking and then you

505
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:58,920
Speaker 1: can anticipate how they'll vote, and you know, so there's

506
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 1: you can get an advantage. We almost anything. But that's

507
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 1: why I would start with Star Spangled Gamblers and then

508
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 1: go to Punch Book, Politico and then whatever that yeah,

509
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:09,639
Speaker 1: gets you off. You will never find anybody who's more

510
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 1: appreciative of shameless plugs and thoughtful uh inline synergistic plugs

511
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 1: than me. That was very well done. But I gotta

512
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:19,880
Speaker 1: tell you, the whole thing is fascinating, and we talked

513
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 1: about all the time, and it's become something that we

514
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 1: cover a lot of action So, Alex Keeney of the

515
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:29,440
Speaker 1: Star Spangled Gamblers podcast, I'm very glad you came on

516
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 1: to fill us in on all of this. It's only

517
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:35,880
Speaker 1: going to get more interesting with the mid terms coming up,

518
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 1: and then you know, obviously in who will be running

519
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 1: for president? And will it be Joe Biden, will it

520
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 1: be Donald Trump? Will be round to Santis mayor Pete?

521
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 1: Who knows? Before we leave? Before we leave, is there

522
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:55,640
Speaker 1: one good bet that we should go on to predict

523
00:27:55,680 --> 00:28:00,159
Speaker 1: it and make right now? The San Jose. I think

524
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:02,359
Speaker 1: there's some dumb song about San Jose which was to

525
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:11,359
Speaker 1: play do you know the way that's almost like new

526
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 1: to team me up to sing? Yeah, all right, I'll

527
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:17,160
Speaker 1: give you one d gen pick, and I'll give you

528
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:19,960
Speaker 1: one like really boring easy money pick. All right, d

529
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:22,480
Speaker 1: gen pick. I will either exit this is the biggest

530
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 1: genius you've ever had or the biggest idiot. I think

531
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:27,440
Speaker 1: the Senate is going to pass a gun control bill

532
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:30,639
Speaker 1: with a lot of Republican votes. Okay, underdog pick you.

533
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:32,920
Speaker 1: It's about a you know, three x multiple if you

534
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:35,919
Speaker 1: hit that right. So I am I am bigly to

535
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:38,480
Speaker 1: use the former president s bigly on a gun control

536
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 1: bill passing, and I might have some meg on my

537
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:43,080
Speaker 1: face if you know the obvious or the more likely

538
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:45,680
Speaker 1: thing happens, which it doesn't. Second, do you remember when

539
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 1: Congress passed a like a changing or ending daylight savings bill?

540
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 1: Do you remember that weird day on Twitter? I'm taking

541
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 1: eight cent shares on Congress, not on the eve of

542
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 1: an election, eliminating daylight savings. I just don't think anyone

543
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 1: wants to deal with thought. I think that's an easy beat.

544
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:04,200
Speaker 1: I'm taking eighty cent shares on to daylight savings time

545
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 1: remaining as it is. I like it. I like it,

546
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 1: Gun Gun build a pass daylight savings remaining as it is.

547
00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 1: Alex Keeney Star Spangled Gamblers Podcast. This is fantastic. I

548
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 1: love it. This is right up our alley. Thanks for

549
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 1: coming on the Favorites podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

550
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 1: I am Chad Moman for my bff Simon Hunter for

551
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 1: producer Matt Mitchell. Download us from Apple podcast, from Spotify

552
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:34,440
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast, rate review, subscribe, leave us

553
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 1: a five star reviews, say whatever you want and the feedback.

554
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:40,520
Speaker 1: Feedback is a gift. Until next time. I love you,