WEBVTT - Piegza: employment numbers have been consistent

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<v Speaker 1>Broadcasting live to New York, Kloomberg to Washington, d C,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg to Boston, Bluemberg twelve on its to San Francisco,

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<v Speaker 1>Bluemberg to the Country Channel one ninety and around the

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<v Speaker 1>globe the Bluemberg Radio plus Bloomberg dot Com. This is

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Surveillance. Good morning everyone, Michael McKee and Tom Keene.

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<v Speaker 1>Mr mckeat Berry. Ridholtz pulled the short straw and it's

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<v Speaker 1>with us today Economic indicators brought you by Commonwealth Financial Network.

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<v Speaker 1>When it's time to change the conversation, talk with the

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<v Speaker 1>broker dealer r I A that's ready to listen called

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<v Speaker 1>eight four six two three six three eight or visit

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<v Speaker 1>Commonwealth dot com uh to learn more. We had a

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<v Speaker 1>DP at eight fifteen, fifteen minutes ago, um a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit above but with a revision south. I'm gonna call

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<v Speaker 1>it a churning. A DP did not move markets in

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<v Speaker 1>any way, Jordan thousand, but you know the revision off

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit. Uh. We we we moved to Friday

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<v Speaker 1>and that early April one, John J. Ports thrilled to

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<v Speaker 1>tell you that Jim Glassman and Bill Gross will join us,

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<v Speaker 1>among other worthies. As we look at the American labor economy.

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<v Speaker 1>Right now, we speak with Lindsay pigs Uh on the

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<v Speaker 1>bombshell yesterday from Cheri Yelling. She is with steeple uh

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<v Speaker 1>Nicholas Lindsay, you're perfect to speak to about good data,

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<v Speaker 1>bad data, good data, bad data, good day. You know

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<v Speaker 1>the derby of market economics, Which way is the Fed tilting?

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<v Speaker 1>Is it a series of bad data points? If you

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<v Speaker 1>listen to ye Jerry yelling comments yesterday, you certainly think

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<v Speaker 1>they're airing on the side of focus on that very

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<v Speaker 1>plugging data, particularly from the consumer side. Her comments were

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<v Speaker 1>incredibly dovish, reinforcing the idea that the FED needs to

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<v Speaker 1>exercise caution, which really speaks to the idea of lower

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<v Speaker 1>for longer and really undermine the ability for the Fed

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<v Speaker 1>to even meet that new lowered bar of expected rate

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<v Speaker 1>heikes over the next nine months. Remember in March they

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<v Speaker 1>lowered that from four down to two. But now it's

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<v Speaker 1>the question of whether or not they can raise at

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<v Speaker 1>all this year. So we're looking at jobs data. The

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<v Speaker 1>preview we get from a DP looking at the private

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<v Speaker 1>sector at two hundred thousand, a little above consensus last

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<v Speaker 1>month lowered nine thousand to about two hundred and seven thousand.

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<v Speaker 1>These are fairly robust job numbers we see month after

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<v Speaker 1>month after month, and inflation ticking up to about one

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<v Speaker 1>point seven. The question to ask is what is the

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<v Speaker 1>FED waiting for? Well, I think the employment numbers have

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<v Speaker 1>been fairly consistent. I would argue against fairly ropebusts. Two

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<v Speaker 1>hundred thousand is hardly an empressive employment report. I think

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<v Speaker 1>we've only started calling two hundred thousand robusts because the

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<v Speaker 1>bar of expectations has been lowered so precipitously. But you're right,

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<v Speaker 1>we have seen stability in the labor market and as

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<v Speaker 1>the late inflation does appear to be on the rise.

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<v Speaker 1>But we need to see consistent upward momentum in prices,

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<v Speaker 1>and we've seen that stall in the latest monthly report.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think a lot of committee members are still

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<v Speaker 1>airing on the side of caution, saying, yeah, we saw

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<v Speaker 1>one to two months of rising price pressures, but that

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<v Speaker 1>may prove temporary. We need to see more tangible evidence

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<v Speaker 1>that inflation is a concern as opposed to downside risk

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<v Speaker 1>to inflation. As the global economy seems to remain under

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<v Speaker 1>significant pressure, so it's all about the wages. It is

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<v Speaker 1>all about the wages, And here too, we seem to

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<v Speaker 1>be losing a lot of talking points for the Hawks.

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<v Speaker 1>At the start of the year, we had back to

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<v Speaker 1>back months of above trend wage growth. Remember we were

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<v Speaker 1>up to two point eight. We slowed to two point five,

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<v Speaker 1>but still back to back months of pretty impressive wave chains.

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<v Speaker 1>Now as we look out the Friday, the expectation is

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<v Speaker 1>another month of slowdown to about two point two first sense,

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<v Speaker 1>so really splitting hair when you talk about returning back

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<v Speaker 1>to the two percent trends. The money question for me,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm not exciting for wisdom lendsay, but maybe you

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<v Speaker 1>can give me a guestimate is if we suddenly look

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<v Speaker 1>at a challenge first quarter without cold weather and other distractions,

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<v Speaker 1>we've got trade to worry about. Do you extrapolate that

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<v Speaker 1>slowed out out the second, third and fourth quarter. I do.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think we need to extrapolate it out for

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<v Speaker 1>the entire year. We're still looking for about trend two

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<v Speaker 1>percent growth on an annual basis. But certainly what it

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<v Speaker 1>does is it reinforces the idea that the US economy,

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<v Speaker 1>it's still on very fragile footing. As you pointed out,

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<v Speaker 1>first quarter GDP right now is estimated to come in

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<v Speaker 1>right around a half a percentage point. And there's none

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<v Speaker 1>of the usual suspects to blame. It wasn't early easter,

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<v Speaker 1>it wasn't cold weather, it wasn't uh some sort of

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<v Speaker 1>change attack policy. There really wasn't any catalysts aside from

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<v Speaker 1>weakening fundamentals that have for for really undermined that headline

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<v Speaker 1>acts in the first three months. Lindsey Nice, Thank you

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<v Speaker 1>so much. Lindsay pigs with stephil Nicholas after the bomb

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<v Speaker 1>show yesterday. You really see it in the two year

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<v Speaker 1>yield coming in over the last five successions point seven,

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<v Speaker 1>nine to two. Barry Ridholtz, there is a birthday today.

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<v Speaker 1>He is he's thirty nine years old. He is one

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<v Speaker 1>of the great voices of an institution that's really been

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<v Speaker 1>knocked around, and that would be the New York Stock Exchange.

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<v Speaker 1>Mr Paulkari is there every day in the trenches. He's

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<v Speaker 1>one of those people you see folks where you go.

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<v Speaker 1>I remember when it was really really busy and there

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<v Speaker 1>were specialists in the romance that Barry got you and

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<v Speaker 1>me into this business. Kenny pol Cary's birthday today. We

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<v Speaker 1>send birthday greetings. But Barry, who does Kenny work for anymore?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, he's he's iconic with the New York Stock Exchange.

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<v Speaker 1>It's still there, But for you as a market pro,

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<v Speaker 1>is Ken's world still there? You know? I remember the

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<v Speaker 1>first time I got the tour of the New York

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<v Speaker 1>Sto Stock Exchange, excited, bought the n y S T shirt,

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<v Speaker 1>which I still have. Uh. You go down to the Exchange.

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<v Speaker 1>All of those outer rooms have been closed. They're hurting

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<v Speaker 1>the few remaining humanoids walking around to one small room.

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<v Speaker 1>It's tumble weeds and television sets and that's pretty much it.

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<v Speaker 1>The flour the Exchange is not where the action is

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<v Speaker 1>actutely happening. It's across the across the river at a

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<v Speaker 1>bunch of server farms located right outside of the tunnel.

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<v Speaker 1>Kenney book car his birthday today, and we say greetings

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<v Speaker 1>to him and all down at the New York Stock

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<v Speaker 1>Exchange as they deal with a new world of trading

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<v Speaker 1>and the challenges of the volumes set in the other

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<v Speaker 1>debates that are out there. He's thirty nine, right, I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know. I'll take your word for it. I think

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<v Speaker 1>you should take my word for it. Out of again

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<v Speaker 1>once more and holding Kenny Bakari, UH features up nine

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<v Speaker 1>DELF features up ninety tenure yield one point eight four percent,

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<v Speaker 1>and again that two year stunning point seven nine percent

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<v Speaker 1>oil thirty eight barrel. And it is Bloomberg surveillance. This

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<v Speaker 1>hour of Bloomberg surveillance bought you by Monster White Plains.

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<v Speaker 1>Visit Mazda White Plains dot com with our news from

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<v Speaker 1>New York. Here's Michael Barr Tom Berry. Thank you very much.

0:07:30.160 --> 0:07:32.600
<v Speaker 1>US officials say the Army will announce today it will

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<v Speaker 1>be up military present in Eastern Europe. The Pentagon will

0:07:35.840 --> 0:07:39.320
<v Speaker 1>deploy and armored brigade combat team to Eastern Europe next

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<v Speaker 1>February to reassuring allies worried about threats from Russia. The

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<v Speaker 1>deployment will also send in more modern equipment. Donald Trump

0:07:47.000 --> 0:07:50.320
<v Speaker 1>says he stands behind his campaign manager, who was charged

0:07:50.320 --> 0:07:53.200
<v Speaker 1>with simple battery in Florida for allegedly we're roughing up

0:07:53.200 --> 0:07:56.000
<v Speaker 1>a reporter who tried to ask a question. A new

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<v Speaker 1>survey by the Alzheimer's Association shows many people are not

0:07:59.600 --> 0:08:02.880
<v Speaker 1>prepared for the high cost of home care or nursing

0:08:02.920 --> 0:08:06.600
<v Speaker 1>for a relative with dementia. Many relatives and friends providing

0:08:06.640 --> 0:08:10.600
<v Speaker 1>financial support or care have dipped into their retirement savings,

0:08:10.880 --> 0:08:14.400
<v Speaker 1>cut back on spending, and sold assets to pay for

0:08:14.480 --> 0:08:17.720
<v Speaker 1>expenses tied to the disease. Mark Dunham took care of

0:08:17.760 --> 0:08:20.640
<v Speaker 1>his wife for five years before she died at age

0:08:20.680 --> 0:08:24.120
<v Speaker 1>fifty four. Emotional part of watching her, you know, decline

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<v Speaker 1>from a you know, a vivacious, you know, forty year

0:08:27.200 --> 0:08:29.720
<v Speaker 1>old woman that had worked her whole career and for

0:08:29.840 --> 0:08:33.679
<v Speaker 1>Nordstrom as a merchandiser and a buyer, to you know,

0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:36.640
<v Speaker 1>not being able to dress herself anymore, or understanding that

0:08:36.679 --> 0:08:39.760
<v Speaker 1>a shower was important. The average cost of a semi

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<v Speaker 1>private room in a nursing home is more than eighty

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<v Speaker 1>thousand dollars per year. Global News twenty four hours a day,

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<v Speaker 1>powered by our two hundred journalists more than a hundred

0:08:49.360 --> 0:08:51.920
<v Speaker 1>fifty news bureaus from around the world. I'm Michael Barr, Tom,

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<v Speaker 1>Michael bar thank you so much. Signed out for the

0:08:54.400 --> 0:08:58.280
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg NBC sports reporters John Tom side of relief for

0:08:58.360 --> 0:09:01.520
<v Speaker 1>Mets fans, The great Matt harve be scare is over.

0:09:01.679 --> 0:09:05.199
<v Speaker 1>He explained what happened. I guess it started with a

0:09:05.200 --> 0:09:08.480
<v Speaker 1>bladder infection that created a blud clot in the bladder

0:09:08.480 --> 0:09:11.960
<v Speaker 1>and passing yesterday. It wasn't a great first day of

0:09:12.040 --> 0:09:15.840
<v Speaker 1>my seventh birthday, but we cleared that and then we

0:09:15.880 --> 0:09:17.760
<v Speaker 1>had a little procedure done this morning just to go

0:09:17.760 --> 0:09:19.920
<v Speaker 1>in and check the bladder and everything was clear. So

0:09:19.960 --> 0:09:21.240
<v Speaker 1>I was gonna pitch two. It is today in the

0:09:21.280 --> 0:09:23.719
<v Speaker 1>Mets final game in Florida, and then as scheduled, we'll

0:09:23.720 --> 0:09:25.840
<v Speaker 1>start the opening Sunday night in Kansas City. Mets will

0:09:25.840 --> 0:09:28.480
<v Speaker 1>be in Las Vegas tomorrow and Friday playing The Cubs

0:09:28.480 --> 0:09:30.120
<v Speaker 1>have not had a good spring. They failed to win

0:09:30.160 --> 0:09:33.200
<v Speaker 1>any of their last twelve games. The Barkley Center Islanders

0:09:33.200 --> 0:09:36.000
<v Speaker 1>shutout in Delander's legal third period. They went through shootout

0:09:36.000 --> 0:09:38.560
<v Speaker 1>and thanks to a Kyleakposso gold and the playoff goalie

0:09:38.600 --> 0:09:40.840
<v Speaker 1>Thomas Gryce, top Carolina two one. I was at a

0:09:40.840 --> 0:09:44.000
<v Speaker 1>four point lead for a wild choir playoffs spot. Devil's

0:09:44.000 --> 0:09:46.440
<v Speaker 1>also won two one over Boston. Not much defense by

0:09:46.480 --> 0:09:50.800
<v Speaker 1>the Nets. Orlando shot sixty the Magic one nine one

0:09:50.840 --> 0:09:53.760
<v Speaker 1>oh five, and I t Semis at the Garden valparasost

0:09:53.920 --> 0:09:57.439
<v Speaker 1>win seventy seventy over b y U Valpo and George

0:09:57.440 --> 0:10:00.439
<v Speaker 1>Washington of the championship game tomorrow, g W past San

0:10:00.440 --> 0:10:03.719
<v Speaker 1>Diego State six and Columbia won a c I T

0:10:03.960 --> 0:10:07.560
<v Speaker 1>final seventy three sixty seven of a. Cal Irvine Lions

0:10:07.559 --> 0:10:09.680
<v Speaker 1>have to play all four games at home. They're the

0:10:09.679 --> 0:10:12.080
<v Speaker 1>first IVY League team to win the post season tournament

0:10:12.280 --> 0:10:15.960
<v Speaker 1>since Princeton won the inn. I We at the bloomber

0:10:15.960 --> 0:10:19.760
<v Speaker 1>AGAINBC Sports Update. I'm John Stafell, Jen, thanks so much.

0:10:19.800 --> 0:10:21.719
<v Speaker 1>We look at that these bonds currencies come out of

0:10:21.760 --> 0:10:24.200
<v Speaker 1>these futures up ten, up a little more earlier, but

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<v Speaker 1>still really elevated off the bang up performance yesterday, the

0:10:27.840 --> 0:10:31.319
<v Speaker 1>Vicks closing thirteen point eight two. While you really wonder

0:10:31.360 --> 0:10:34.200
<v Speaker 1>can we get to a twelve handle of the Vicks today?

0:10:34.280 --> 0:10:37.280
<v Speaker 1>I guess that's within UM reached ten year yield one

0:10:37.679 --> 0:10:41.120
<v Speaker 1>six percent again the two year points seven nine percent

0:10:41.200 --> 0:10:45.880
<v Speaker 1>and abrupt move in the two year um as UM

0:10:45.960 --> 0:10:49.440
<v Speaker 1>Cherry Yelling, Chris Dovish yesterday at the Economic Club of

0:10:49.679 --> 0:10:53.760
<v Speaker 1>New York, Barry Riholtz and Tom King coming up. Barry

0:10:53.840 --> 0:11:02.480
<v Speaker 1>Ridholtz on investment, Bloomberg Savellance, Bloombergs brought to you by

0:11:02.520 --> 0:11:05.560
<v Speaker 1>Ancient Blanket. Ancient named the best accounting form in North

0:11:05.559 --> 0:11:08.480
<v Speaker 1>America for the sixth year in a row by Hedge

0:11:08.480 --> 0:11:19.719
<v Speaker 1>week dot Com Global Business News twenty four hours a

0:11:19.840 --> 0:11:23.040
<v Speaker 1>day at Bloomberg dot com, the Radio plus mobile app

0:11:23.120 --> 0:11:26.600
<v Speaker 1>and on your radio. This is a Bloomberg Business Flash.

0:11:27.600 --> 0:11:29.520
<v Speaker 1>And I'm Carra in Moscow. This updates brought to you

0:11:29.600 --> 0:11:33.040
<v Speaker 1>by National Railty returns on cash and rented real estate

0:11:33.080 --> 0:11:36.160
<v Speaker 1>find them at n r I a dot net. Companies

0:11:36.240 --> 0:11:39.240
<v Speaker 1>took on two hundred thousand workers in March. The increase

0:11:39.280 --> 0:11:41.880
<v Speaker 1>in employment followed a revise two hundred five thousand game

0:11:41.920 --> 0:11:44.240
<v Speaker 1>the prior month, and that was according to figures from

0:11:44.280 --> 0:11:47.960
<v Speaker 1>the ADP Research Institute. US Stock index futures, meanwhile, are

0:11:48.040 --> 0:11:51.080
<v Speaker 1>higher amid optimism. Interest rates will rise at a slower pace.

0:11:51.160 --> 0:11:53.160
<v Speaker 1>Soil is rising for the first time in five days

0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:55.560
<v Speaker 1>in New York, and we check the markets every fifteen

0:11:55.559 --> 0:11:59.120
<v Speaker 1>minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg. SNP EVENI futures

0:11:59.120 --> 0:12:00.800
<v Speaker 1>of eleven and a half a points to Downey Many

0:12:00.840 --> 0:12:03.840
<v Speaker 1>futures of a hundred three and NASDAC eveny futures of thirty.

0:12:04.120 --> 0:12:06.720
<v Speaker 1>The acts in Germany's up one point six percent. Ten

0:12:06.800 --> 0:12:09.120
<v Speaker 1>year Treasury down eight thirty seconds the yield one point

0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:11.640
<v Speaker 1>eight three percent yield on the two year point seven

0:12:11.720 --> 0:12:14.600
<v Speaker 1>nine percent. Nimex screw oil up two point three percent

0:12:14.720 --> 0:12:17.240
<v Speaker 1>or eighty nine cents at thirty nine sixteen of barrel

0:12:17.440 --> 0:12:19.720
<v Speaker 1>and Comexs gold is down to ten percent or two

0:12:19.720 --> 0:12:23.080
<v Speaker 1>dollars seventy cents at twelve thirty four eighty announced the

0:12:23.120 --> 0:12:26.199
<v Speaker 1>euro and dollar thirteen thirteen the yen's one twelve point

0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:30.000
<v Speaker 1>six one Yoga where retailer Lulu lam and Athletic up

0:12:30.080 --> 0:12:32.520
<v Speaker 1>five and a half percent in early trading after reporting

0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:35.880
<v Speaker 1>fourth quarter of profit that beat analysis estimates after improvements

0:12:35.880 --> 0:12:39.360
<v Speaker 1>of the company's supply chain cut costs, and State Street

0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:42.240
<v Speaker 1>agreed to buy General Electrics asset management unit for as

0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:44.840
<v Speaker 1>much as four hundred eighty five million dollars in cash

0:12:45.200 --> 0:12:48.600
<v Speaker 1>to expand alternative investments such as private equity and real estate.

0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:51.480
<v Speaker 1>And that's a Bloomberg business flash, Tom and Berry, Karen,

0:12:51.640 --> 0:12:56.520
<v Speaker 1>I thanks so much. It is. The following is from

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg View opinions in commentary from Bloomberg Column. I'm Paula Dwire,

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<v Speaker 1>an editor with Bloomberg View. It's conventional wisdom that Bernie

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<v Speaker 1>Sanders has pushed Hillary Clinton so far to the left

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<v Speaker 1>during the primaries on taxes, trade, minimum wages, and Wall

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<v Speaker 1>Street regulation that she will need to pivot hard back

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<v Speaker 1>to the center if she hopes to win in November.

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<v Speaker 1>Look past the stump speeches and debates, though, and you'll

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<v Speaker 1>see that Clinton's rhetoric has changed while her policy positions haven't.

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<v Speaker 1>One example is the minimum wage. When Sanders called for

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<v Speaker 1>a nationwide fifteen dollar minimum, she backed a higher wage

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<v Speaker 1>two but hers was for twelve dollars, citing economists who

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<v Speaker 1>say a fifteen dollar floor could lead to job losses

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<v Speaker 1>in some areas. She also allowed that a higher minimum

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<v Speaker 1>wage might work in more expensive cities and states, and

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<v Speaker 1>said they are free to enact one if they choose.

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<v Speaker 1>Unlike Sanders, Clinton doesn't call for breaking up big banks,

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<v Speaker 1>a position that might demand modification in a general election. Instead,

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<v Speaker 1>she proposes to close loopholes in the Dodd Frank Law,

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<v Speaker 1>and despite criticism of her well paid speeches to Goldman Sachs,

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<v Speaker 1>she has never vowed to refuse Wall Streets money. Call

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<v Speaker 1>it expediency or call it smart politics. Surprisingly, little of

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<v Speaker 1>Clinton's primary strategy will require her to do an embarrassing

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<v Speaker 1>about base in the fall. I'm Paula Dwire, an editor

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<v Speaker 1>with Bloomberg View. For more commentary and opinion, please go

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<v Speaker 1>to bloomberg View dot com. This has been Bloomberg View

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<v Speaker 1>and Bloomberg View commentaries can be here at hourly weekdays.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Bloomberg Radio. We think all of our supporters that

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<v Speaker 1>keep us going here. Of course, Investco has made a

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<v Speaker 1>huge commitment. I spent time yesterday with their team and Barry.

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<v Speaker 1>I was absolutely thrilled to meet Megan Walsh. She is

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<v Speaker 1>a world famous within dividend analysis. She's got that rare

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<v Speaker 1>distinction which she actually was a trader before she did

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<v Speaker 1>the cf A portfolio management track. And to get everybody's attention,

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<v Speaker 1>is it okay year today to be in the nine

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<v Speaker 1>percentile or one year nineties six percentile or three year

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<v Speaker 1>ninety third percentile or five year ninety four percentile. That

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<v Speaker 1>gets everybody's attention to that's not too shabby. So Barry,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not going to give you the name of the company.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a company we all know, we all use their products.

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<v Speaker 1>It pays a dividend of two point nine, it's got

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<v Speaker 1>a five year dividend growth rate of ten point one

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<v Speaker 1>two percent, but the pe is twenty two. Is Megan

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<v Speaker 1>Walsh's world price to perfection. If you're talking about dividends,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a huge spread in companies. Some are modestly priced,

0:15:38.760 --> 0:15:41.680
<v Speaker 1>some are fairly priced, and some are a little pricey.

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<v Speaker 1>And history has told us that when you buy expensive stocks,

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<v Speaker 1>especially dividend stocks, when you overpay for them, that doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>work out especially well over the long haul. And when

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<v Speaker 1>you say work out, and this is so important, folks,

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<v Speaker 1>the distinction between getting killed, which you obviously don't want

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<v Speaker 1>to do, but the other distinct should it should buy

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<v Speaker 1>them fully priced? And then you go nowhere, Yeah you

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<v Speaker 1>when you let's let's let me randomly pick a company

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<v Speaker 1>out there, um like McDonald's, right, and and we haven't

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<v Speaker 1>talked about this. I'm just randomly punched punched it in.

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<v Speaker 1>You have a hundred eleven billion dollar market cap and

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<v Speaker 1>then a forward PE of about twenty five and not

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<v Speaker 1>exactly a fast growth rate growth rate of eight point

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<v Speaker 1>five off of lower levels too. It's hard to see

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<v Speaker 1>how that's a company that that can continue to grow

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<v Speaker 1>with those those levels. By the way, I think back

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<v Speaker 1>a few years ago. And it was just two or

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<v Speaker 1>three years ago when Chapultle was on the rise, McDonald's

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<v Speaker 1>was out of favor. The stock was at multi year

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<v Speaker 1>lows and it was changed trading at a very very

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<v Speaker 1>cheap multiple. If you, if you, if we're not as

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<v Speaker 1>smart as Megan Walsh Vinvesco, I get that. What's the

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<v Speaker 1>strategy for someone who wants to play in the rithols

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<v Speaker 1>Meganwash World knows they're not gonna be Megan Walsh, but

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<v Speaker 1>at least they don't want to get hammered. You don't

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<v Speaker 1>have to be smart. You can outsource your thinking to

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<v Speaker 1>Warren Buffett. Do I want to be Peter Lynch? So

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<v Speaker 1>if you want to be Peter Lynch, or better yet,

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<v Speaker 1>Benjamin Graham, that's what I mean by outsourced you're thinking.

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<v Speaker 1>They've made it clear, they've proven that when you buy

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<v Speaker 1>inexpensive companies for the long haul, you're gonna do much

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<v Speaker 1>better than when you buy expensive companies. And by the way,

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<v Speaker 1>very often we're talking about the same exact name McDonald's

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<v Speaker 1>two years ago, McDonald's two years forward, very very different

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<v Speaker 1>risk reward pres Look at Microsoft another great example. The

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<v Speaker 1>next idea, if I'm smart enough to buy McDonald's when

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<v Speaker 1>it was a total disaster and now it's twenty five

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<v Speaker 1>times forward or whatever the ratio as you gave. Do

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<v Speaker 1>I hold it and then wait for the buy again,

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<v Speaker 1>or you're gonna do a transaction and find the next

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<v Speaker 1>smartest cheap thing. It depends on where you're sitting. If

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<v Speaker 1>you're sitting, depends on your text, right, if your that's

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<v Speaker 1>what I was, I mean, it depends on what you're sitting.

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<v Speaker 1>Are you holding this in a in a qualified account

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<v Speaker 1>or you hold it in an individual account? Are you

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<v Speaker 1>trading for P and L on a desk somewhere, or

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<v Speaker 1>or are you a long term investor who made a

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<v Speaker 1>goodbye two years ago and are probably better off just

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<v Speaker 1>letting it run for the long haul. It's always hard

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<v Speaker 1>on the radio or on television to say here's what

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<v Speaker 1>you should do. I don't know who you are. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know what your tax bracket is, I don't know

0:18:38.440 --> 0:18:40.800
<v Speaker 1>how much money you've saved for retirement. I don't know

0:18:40.840 --> 0:18:44.600
<v Speaker 1>what your risk parameters are. So just saying by McDonald

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<v Speaker 1>cell McDonald's doesn't give people a lot of insight. If

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<v Speaker 1>you're in it cheaper and and you're doing well with it.

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<v Speaker 1>There's no reason to cut and run. On the other hand,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a tough stop to buy up at this price.

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<v Speaker 1>But one alternative, and it's that doesn't work so much

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<v Speaker 1>within the oligopolin known as a industry. But one idea

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<v Speaker 1>is if you have a big name and you know

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<v Speaker 1>it's too visible, loved, etcetera shift to a mid cap

0:19:08.680 --> 0:19:14.800
<v Speaker 1>equivalency um right now. So we spoke with Tom Dorsey

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<v Speaker 1>last week. That will be that will be on Master's

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<v Speaker 1>business this weekend. Why did you see that change? Shameless

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<v Speaker 1>plug right there. One of the things that Tom has

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<v Speaker 1>been discussing is the big caps have been dominating for

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<v Speaker 1>six or seven years and at only over the past

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<v Speaker 1>quarter or two have we seen that shift from dominance

0:19:34.960 --> 0:19:38.360
<v Speaker 1>of lodge cap towards small cap. So again, if you're

0:19:38.359 --> 0:19:40.920
<v Speaker 1>a nimble trader and you want to look at better,

0:19:41.119 --> 0:19:44.800
<v Speaker 1>better rivers to fish in, small mid cap might be

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<v Speaker 1>a place to look at. But if you're a long

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<v Speaker 1>term investor and you own these things inexpensively, there's no

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<v Speaker 1>reason to guess that this is the top for McDonald's

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<v Speaker 1>and then try and see what you can find. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>guessing you're too young to remember when people sat around

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<v Speaker 1>with a blue book, which was the SMP bond book.

0:20:03.280 --> 0:20:07.080
<v Speaker 1>The bond guide came every month and your your grandfather

0:20:07.400 --> 0:20:09.520
<v Speaker 1>would drop a cigarette ashes on it as he looked.

0:20:11.040 --> 0:20:13.120
<v Speaker 1>I remember the value line books that used to call

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<v Speaker 1>I have a bad right ankle from tripping over a

0:20:17.840 --> 0:20:19.840
<v Speaker 1>thick and you would get one every and there were

0:20:19.880 --> 0:20:21.639
<v Speaker 1>the insucts would come every month. It was like a

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<v Speaker 1>loose leaf bindre. Do you create income now in bonds?

0:20:26.680 --> 0:20:29.840
<v Speaker 1>Do you have to go to prefer its you convertible?

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<v Speaker 1>So it's a philosophical shift. Number one. You have to

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<v Speaker 1>get out of the mindset. You know, my father in

0:20:36.880 --> 0:20:39.040
<v Speaker 1>law who's no longer here, BUTO the New York City

0:20:39.119 --> 0:20:43.640
<v Speaker 1>GEO bonds that were yielding twelve and four and when

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<v Speaker 1>they came up, when the bonds were finally called and

0:20:47.080 --> 0:20:49.439
<v Speaker 1>the tenure was yielding five and a half percent, he

0:20:49.520 --> 0:20:52.280
<v Speaker 1>was very angry. People would be thrilled with the five

0:20:52.320 --> 0:20:55.000
<v Speaker 1>and a half percent. You have to recognize that it's

0:20:55.119 --> 0:20:58.479
<v Speaker 1>no longer days gone by that we've had a thirty

0:20:58.560 --> 0:21:02.119
<v Speaker 1>year bond bull mark sucket the ten years at two percent.

0:21:02.480 --> 0:21:05.320
<v Speaker 1>If you want munis that gives you some opportunities. It

0:21:05.400 --> 0:21:08.000
<v Speaker 1>depends on what state you live in, but it's not

0:21:08.240 --> 0:21:10.760
<v Speaker 1>a high yield environment. Thirty seconds and Bill Gross to

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<v Speaker 1>join us Friday here on Job Today. Were thrilled about that.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you like the concept of unconstrained Do you want

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<v Speaker 1>to know what your portfolio is gonna buy? Or do

0:21:18.680 --> 0:21:21.080
<v Speaker 1>you want to give the privilege to someone who's wise?

0:21:21.119 --> 0:21:25.000
<v Speaker 1>As I'm an asset allocator, so I don't like the

0:21:25.040 --> 0:21:28.600
<v Speaker 1>idea of an unconstrained bonds. I want this guy running

0:21:28.640 --> 0:21:31.680
<v Speaker 1>my my mortgage backed securities, and I want that guy

0:21:31.760 --> 0:21:34.639
<v Speaker 1>running my corporates, and I want this guy running my

0:21:34.720 --> 0:21:37.760
<v Speaker 1>high yields, and I want to make that asset allocation

0:21:37.840 --> 0:21:42.440
<v Speaker 1>decision as opposed to a sort of nebulous thing. Although listen,

0:21:42.480 --> 0:21:45.280
<v Speaker 1>I can't argue with Bill Gross's long term track record.

0:21:45.359 --> 0:21:47.680
<v Speaker 1>It's been He's run into a few troubles over the

0:21:47.680 --> 0:21:50.320
<v Speaker 1>past few years, but his long term forty year track

0:21:50.359 --> 0:21:53.760
<v Speaker 1>record is phenomenal, and on a relative basis, he's had

0:21:53.760 --> 0:21:56.840
<v Speaker 1>a spirited year versus some of his good competitors. Yes,

0:21:58.080 --> 0:22:01.119
<v Speaker 1>Capital is well, this is wonderful, very rid holts with

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<v Speaker 1>us as we do a little more investment because McKay

0:22:03.520 --> 0:22:07.199
<v Speaker 1>and I are economics, economics, economics, all the time. Futures up,

0:22:07.200 --> 0:22:10.720
<v Speaker 1>eleven down, features up one oh four uh, and again

0:22:10.760 --> 0:22:13.600
<v Speaker 1>a two year yield. Oh it's sound flat point seven

0:22:13.680 --> 0:22:17.439
<v Speaker 1>eight percent. Let's have a song for cher yelling as

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<v Speaker 1>we go to another hour of surveillance