1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:09,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news from the heart of 2 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:14,920 Speaker 1: where innovation, money and power collide in Silicon Valley and beyond. 3 00:00:15,360 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Technology with Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow. 4 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:37,600 Speaker 2: Live from New York and San Francisco. This is Bloomberg Technology. 5 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:41,600 Speaker 2: Terrify anxieties are not going away with President Trump's global 6 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:45,360 Speaker 2: levies going into effect today, including those eyewatering one hundred 7 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:47,760 Speaker 2: and four percent tarifs on China. This is both China 8 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:51,239 Speaker 2: and the EU fight back with counter tariffs on US products. 9 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 2: We cling to gains, but we fade this rally hard quickly. 10 00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 2: We're only up about a tenth of a percent on 11 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:58,840 Speaker 2: the nasat one hundred, after we managed to sell off 12 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 2: yesterday as well. And it feels as though the magnificence 13 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 2: sendmen trying to claw on Ed but no longer what 14 00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:04,760 Speaker 2: you got on the micro. 15 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 3: I want to go to a story that Bloomberg Spencer 16 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 3: Soaper broke in the last thirty minutes. That is, Amazon 17 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:16,600 Speaker 3: has started canceling orders of inventory on specific products made 18 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 3: in China. I'm talking consumer electronics, household goods. It didn't 19 00:01:20,200 --> 00:01:23,400 Speaker 3: do much to change the fortune of the stock. It's higher, 20 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:26,760 Speaker 3: as many Mag seven names are, But that is an interesting, 21 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 3: real time, real term story about the impact of tariffs 22 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 3: that are now implemented right elsewhere. There's buoyancy in some 23 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:38,160 Speaker 3: of the MAG seven names. Apple in particular for now 24 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 3: emphasize the for now why because at one point in 25 00:01:40,720 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 3: yesterday's session, Apple was hired by a similar level closed 26 00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:46,399 Speaker 3: down more than double that five percent. There is a 27 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 3: function on the Bloomberg terminal ECTR. It's our trade flow map. 28 00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:53,600 Speaker 3: The data is backward looking. We care about the relationship 29 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 3: between US and China. There is a trade deficit. The 30 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 3: US has a trade deficit with the US and China. 31 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 3: And later in the program, when it came to tech, 32 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 3: it is so important to discuss that number two hundred 33 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:06,280 Speaker 3: and sixty billion in twenty twenty three. We know from 34 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:09,080 Speaker 3: prelim data it went up in twenty twenty four. And 35 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:12,400 Speaker 3: we are talking about a US reliance on Chinese computers, 36 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 3: consumer electronics, hair dryers, electric heated blankets, and that ties 37 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:19,239 Speaker 3: into that Amazon story that spent so sober broke. 38 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 2: And Amazon just turned negative as you were talking about 39 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:25,079 Speaker 2: at ED. Let's just get the perspective of the global 40 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 2: trade war heating up China the EU both retaliating against 41 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 2: US tarifs. This is President Trump aims to bring back 42 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:34,639 Speaker 2: manufacturing in America, setting all his eyes on. 43 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 4: Apple jobs in advanced technologies. The President is looking at 44 00:02:38,200 --> 00:02:39,919 Speaker 4: all of those, he wants them to come back home. 45 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 5: But iPhones specifically, is that's something that he thinks is 46 00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 5: the kind of technology that can move to the US. 47 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 4: Absolutely, he believes we have the labor, we have the workforce, 48 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:50,040 Speaker 4: we have the resources to do it. And as you know, 49 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 4: Apple has invested five hundred billion dollars here in the 50 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 4: United States. So if Apple didn't think the United States 51 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:57,040 Speaker 4: could do it, they probably wouldn't have put up that 52 00:02:57,040 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 4: big chunk of change. 53 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 2: Well, as we all wait for more US made products, 54 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:05,360 Speaker 2: Amazon meanwhile canceling orders on some China made goods. So, 55 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:09,239 Speaker 2: according to sources and those Cadie Nines joins us from Washington, 56 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 2: and at the moment, the response is a coming thick 57 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 2: and fast, EU and China. What does the White House. 58 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:14,760 Speaker 6: Make of it? 59 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 5: Well, the White House is sticking to its guns here, Caroline. 60 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:21,160 Speaker 5: President Trump, while he has indicated he wants to make 61 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 5: a deal with China, wants China to come to him 62 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:25,079 Speaker 5: and at this point, it doesn't look like China is 63 00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 5: willing to have those conversations, as they have retaliated with 64 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:31,120 Speaker 5: this eighty four percent tariff against all US imports in 65 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 5: exchange for one hundred and four percent levies the US 66 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 5: implemented as of twelve oh one am this morning. So 67 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 5: obviously an escalation in the trade war between the two 68 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 5: largest economies and potentially has the ability to choke off 69 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 5: the vast majority of trade that happens between the US 70 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 5: and China. Already we're seeing, obviously our reporting on Amazon 71 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 5: cutting off orders of things like air conditioning units or 72 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:54,520 Speaker 5: beach shares. That is changing company behavior in terms of 73 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:56,680 Speaker 5: where they want to source their inventory from. But it 74 00:03:56,680 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 5: also has the potential ramification to affect whether or non 75 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 5: American can access supply of things that don't easily have 76 00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:06,040 Speaker 5: alternative suppliers to China. At the moment, according to data 77 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 5: from the US Trade Commission, things like laptop computers for example, 78 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 5: PC monitors, gaming consoles, all of that has about a 79 00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 5: seventy percent or more share of imports that come from 80 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:19,560 Speaker 5: China specifically, so that is where you could start to 81 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 5: see some gaps emerging as this depending on how long 82 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:26,120 Speaker 5: this continues, but the administration argues all of this has 83 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:29,320 Speaker 5: an aim, and that aim is to bring back American manufacturing. 84 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 5: As we just heard from the White House Press Secretary 85 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:34,240 Speaker 5: Caroline Levitt, but we've heard from others and the administration 86 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 5: as well. If you recalled, just this past weekend on 87 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:39,880 Speaker 5: Sunday Morning television, the Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik talked about 88 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:42,359 Speaker 5: the army of millions and millions of people screwing in 89 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 5: tiny little screws and iPhones. He says, that's the kind 90 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:46,600 Speaker 5: of thing they're bringing back to America. 91 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 3: That aim is so interesting because for the last twenty 92 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 3: four hours I listened to everybody on Bloomberg Television, read 93 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:56,560 Speaker 3: every story, and I think the market still thinks, what 94 00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 3: is the aim here? Is it revenue generation for our country? 95 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 3: Bring manufact uring back. I usually would like to go 96 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:04,279 Speaker 3: to the politics. I think I'm right in saying that 97 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 3: away from tariffs, President Trump has not yet spoken to 98 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:10,680 Speaker 3: President she at any point since he took office. Am 99 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:11,040 Speaker 3: I right? 100 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 5: He has spoken to President She and he actually invited 101 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:18,920 Speaker 5: him to his inauguration, but there hasn't been a conversation 102 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:21,600 Speaker 5: really since this escalation of the trade war. The initial 103 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 5: tariffs that went into place regarding fentanyl, which first of 104 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 5: course was ten percent and twenty percent, then the eighty 105 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 5: four percent on top that has gone into effect as 106 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 5: of midnight tonight, But there have not been direct high 107 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:34,960 Speaker 5: level talks between those two leaders. That there has been 108 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:37,880 Speaker 5: communication at some lower rungs of the Chinese and US 109 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:39,800 Speaker 5: government when it comes to trade. I guess we'll see 110 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:42,160 Speaker 5: if that phone call is scheduled, because again, the President 111 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 5: and others in the Administration and White House have made 112 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 5: clear he is looking to make a deal with China here, 113 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:50,160 Speaker 5: and we understand based off of our reporting and as 114 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 5: well as what the White House is saying, that there's 115 00:05:52,040 --> 00:05:54,320 Speaker 5: some seventy countries that have called into the White House 116 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:56,479 Speaker 5: to try to begin negotiations. It's just not clear at 117 00:05:56,520 --> 00:05:59,080 Speaker 5: this time that China is one of them. In the meantime, 118 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:02,320 Speaker 5: the Administration is our arguing that China fundamentally has been 119 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 5: messing with the US on trade and has been engaging 120 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 5: in unfair trade practices for years, and that is what 121 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:09,760 Speaker 5: they are trying to reverse, which is one of the 122 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 5: reasons they use to justify tariffs. That it's not just 123 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:16,039 Speaker 5: about bringing back American manufacturing. They also think it's about 124 00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:19,200 Speaker 5: lowering trade deficits with the US making trade fairer across 125 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:19,599 Speaker 5: the globe. 126 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:20,400 Speaker 7: In addition to the. 127 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 5: Revenue raising aspect, they also argue would be a benefit 128 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 5: of this. The thing is, if you have tariffs of 129 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 5: this level, like one hundred and four percent, that is 130 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:31,480 Speaker 5: likely to reduce important volumes according to most economists you 131 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:34,080 Speaker 5: would speak with, and that means less imports that you 132 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 5: actually can tear iff, which actually could mean that you're 133 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:39,279 Speaker 5: not bringing in the kind of revenue levels you would 134 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:41,920 Speaker 5: think that you wil Bloomberg Economics estimates that if tariffs 135 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:44,359 Speaker 5: are intact as it stands now, they could bring in 136 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 5: about three hundred billion dollars a year because of the 137 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:50,080 Speaker 5: reduction in imports. That's half of what the White Houses 138 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:51,360 Speaker 5: argued could generate. 139 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 3: Blimbers K lines, we appreciate it, Thank you very much. 140 00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:57,880 Speaker 3: Let's get more on the global tech markets perspective amid 141 00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:00,560 Speaker 3: what is an active trade war? A Sema Shah, Principal 142 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:03,479 Speaker 3: Asset Management Chief Global Strategists, joins us, Now, when you 143 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:06,159 Speaker 3: think about the mag seven, let's say Apple in particular 144 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 3: is an example, right, are you preparing for that Scenariokaylee outlined, 145 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 3: which is the onshoring of jobs in this country or 146 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 3: is this more about pricing in modeling a fundamental change 147 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 3: in how the world does trade effectively. 148 00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 6: I think everything is on the table at the moment. 149 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 6: I mean, one of the things that Cody was talking 150 00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:28,680 Speaker 6: about with regards to having a lot of those other 151 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 6: jobs that go into making the parts something to move 152 00:07:31,080 --> 00:07:33,360 Speaker 6: to the US, I mean one of the clear impacts 153 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:35,480 Speaker 6: of that is the US has got much much higher 154 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:38,840 Speaker 6: wage wages than parts of Asia, So you would be 155 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:42,679 Speaker 6: looking at significant increase in cost brushes for these companies 156 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 6: for the mag seven impact on their margins and therefore 157 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:49,160 Speaker 6: on their earnings growth potential. So there are so many 158 00:07:49,160 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 6: offsets of this, so it makes it quite difficult to 159 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 6: even fathom that you could see this complete alteration and 160 00:07:56,440 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 6: change in the way that I think the world has 161 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:01,320 Speaker 6: got accustom to thinking about trade and a product. But 162 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 6: this is all encompassing. Of course, It's not just technology. 163 00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 6: This is about every single product that you think through. 164 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:09,880 Speaker 6: Because of global trade, every single part will have elements 165 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 6: of different countries about them, and shifting it back to 166 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 6: the US is simply very inflationary. 167 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 3: I want to show the earnings calendar for the mag 168 00:08:18,440 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 3: seven and those names that have asteriskness to them are 169 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:23,960 Speaker 3: still tensative right. They haven't confirmed the date. But there 170 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:26,559 Speaker 3: is a split in the market I see this morning. 171 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 3: Many believe that we won't see a bottom in equity 172 00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:32,680 Speaker 3: markets until we have earnings calls and a revision to 173 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:35,840 Speaker 3: guidance that's been given, or a complete removal of guidance. 174 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 3: Others say that earnings and guidance is not important. All 175 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 3: we need is a strong positive piece of political news. 176 00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:47,200 Speaker 3: Where do you stand, Seema, I think we need one 177 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:47,680 Speaker 3: or the other. 178 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 6: Either one would be important. I think probably the most 179 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:53,439 Speaker 6: important would be if the administration walks back from tariffs 180 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:57,960 Speaker 6: very significantly. Then you would see the market centerment improving. 181 00:08:58,160 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 6: And I think you see markets start to write, and 182 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 6: not a very very sharp rally, because I think some 183 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 6: fundamental damage has been done here, but certainly a rally 184 00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:07,640 Speaker 6: in terms of earnings guidance. I think one of the 185 00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:09,280 Speaker 6: things that we're waiting to see is that, look, if 186 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 6: recession really is on the cards, we need to see 187 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 6: a more realistic earnings outlook for companies across all sectors, 188 00:09:16,800 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 6: including technology, and it's only once you have that realistic forecast, 189 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 6: when you have got that forward guidance talking through what 190 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:27,600 Speaker 6: the impact of tarists and this new global environment is, 191 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 6: only then can you start to think about where the 192 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:31,800 Speaker 6: floor is. And then once you know where the flora is, 193 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:33,000 Speaker 6: then you can start thinking forward. 194 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:36,080 Speaker 2: Why there are people buying if we're not sure where 195 00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 2: the floor is in the moment, why is Apple in 196 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:39,360 Speaker 2: the green for example? 197 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 6: Well, I think one of the things that we've been 198 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:44,360 Speaker 6: seeing for MAC seven has been really interesting for US 199 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:47,560 Speaker 6: is I mean, from an asset allocation portfolio perspective, we 200 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:49,400 Speaker 6: have been trying to move away from the tactical. It's 201 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:52,240 Speaker 6: very difficult to be tactical when there's such an uncertain environment, 202 00:09:52,520 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 6: so you almost go back to your strategic positioning. From 203 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:58,199 Speaker 6: a strategic perspective, we still like big tech if you're 204 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:01,440 Speaker 6: looking out over five to ten year horizon. Certainly the 205 00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:04,079 Speaker 6: outlook has deteriorated even on the long term horizon, but 206 00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 6: it's still fairly important from a global or a US 207 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:10,720 Speaker 6: growth perspective. The other part of this is is that 208 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 6: typically in this kind of environment, when there is uncertainty, 209 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 6: when there are fears about what's going to happen, to 210 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:18,439 Speaker 6: economic growth. You want companies which you've got the big 211 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:22,360 Speaker 6: balance sheets, the positive cash flow, the fairly large motes 212 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:24,840 Speaker 6: around them, and the Max seven dies still come into play. 213 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:28,679 Speaker 6: And you've already seen a very significant valuation rerating in 214 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:30,920 Speaker 6: the past couple of months, which means that at least 215 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:33,160 Speaker 6: the Max seven the big tech companies are a little 216 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:35,440 Speaker 6: bit head of the game in terms of having a 217 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 6: slightly more realistic pictures attached to them. 218 00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 2: It has to be said Apple having its worst four 219 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:42,520 Speaker 2: day sell off since the year two thousand, many saying 220 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:46,200 Speaker 2: from an RSI perspective relative strength index, it was over sold. 221 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:48,079 Speaker 2: This must be the point at which you pick up 222 00:10:48,400 --> 00:10:51,559 Speaker 2: some of these shares. But seem who are the investor 223 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:54,680 Speaker 2: base right now who are willing to buy into big tech? 224 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 2: You yourself sat in London. Are international buyers still coming in? 225 00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:00,800 Speaker 2: Are we seeing it more from not only funds in 226 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:02,079 Speaker 2: the United States? For example? 227 00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:05,800 Speaker 6: I think we have seen some retail invest is studying 228 00:11:05,840 --> 00:11:07,719 Speaker 6: to do their feed in them. They really believe in 229 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 6: the brand's perspective. So I think that's where you're seeing 230 00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:12,319 Speaker 6: a bit of a dip bike. But as I said, 231 00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 6: you know, I mean the other thing to consider is 232 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:17,200 Speaker 6: that whilst you do start to see if we see 233 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 6: some positive headlines coming through which can be sustained. Again, 234 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:22,560 Speaker 6: these are the companies which have got that long term 235 00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 6: earnings potential. So I think people have got an eye 236 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:27,040 Speaker 6: on the idea that there could be a walk back 237 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:29,360 Speaker 6: at any time. May not come, but certainly could happen 238 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:31,960 Speaker 6: at any moment. So people do still want to have 239 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 6: exposure to these companies that can potentially ride out what 240 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 6: would you most likely be still a challenging economic environment 241 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 6: for the coming months. 242 00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:42,200 Speaker 3: There's this note from Bank of America out this morning 243 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 3: that says a US bill typhoon could cost ninety nine 244 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 3: zero percent more than it currently does. But that is 245 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:53,720 Speaker 3: a goal of this administration right bring jobs, manufacturing, jobs 246 00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:56,040 Speaker 3: in tech back to the United States or to the 247 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 3: United States for the first time. Is there any upside 248 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 3: or sort of silver lining or bright outcome that you 249 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,160 Speaker 3: see with this tariff's process. 250 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:07,320 Speaker 8: I'm not sure if there's. 251 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 6: Well, look I think over a long term perspective, you know, 252 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 6: a four or five year period, then maybe yes, there 253 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:14,400 Speaker 6: could be some positive. You would have maybe a US 254 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:16,840 Speaker 6: economy which is a bit stronger, you have a manufacturing 255 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:19,640 Speaker 6: base which is more formidable, you have less reliance on 256 00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:22,600 Speaker 6: external partners, so that would be the positive, but it 257 00:12:22,640 --> 00:12:25,040 Speaker 6: really comes through in the longside. It's really in the 258 00:12:25,040 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 6: short term that you start to see this additional pain 259 00:12:27,040 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 6: coming through. So I think it's challenging to see some 260 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:32,839 Speaker 6: really good positive news coming through. I guess the one 261 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:34,960 Speaker 6: thing is though, is that you know to that point 262 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:38,600 Speaker 6: where an iPhone could be significantly more expensive, that inflation 263 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 6: pressure just puts upper pressure on the long end of 264 00:12:40,520 --> 00:12:42,520 Speaker 6: the yeelk CUB. We're already being seen that playing out 265 00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:45,160 Speaker 6: in the last couple of days, and from our perspective, 266 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 6: that may be the pressure point from the Trump administration. 267 00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:52,199 Speaker 6: They have repeatedly talked about their focus on treasury yields, 268 00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 6: so maybe this is what necessarily pushes them back from 269 00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:58,199 Speaker 6: the edge and you could see some negotiations coming through 270 00:12:58,200 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 6: in the next. 271 00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:00,800 Speaker 2: Couple of days, or of a bio straight on the 272 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:03,080 Speaker 2: bond market. At least, yealds up about nine basis points 273 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 2: in the ten ure. Simashah and Principal Asset Management, thanks 274 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:07,280 Speaker 2: so much for joining us. 275 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:07,719 Speaker 7: Coming up. 276 00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:10,560 Speaker 2: Look as companies they race to adjust plans amid the 277 00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:13,600 Speaker 2: trade tensions. Neither the US or China appears to be 278 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:15,880 Speaker 2: backing down. We'll have more on the impact for the 279 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:25,920 Speaker 2: tech sector. This has been their technology. 280 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:32,199 Speaker 9: China's paid almost seven hundred billion dollars in tariffs under me, 281 00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 9: and then they say Donald Trump hasn't been tough on China. 282 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:41,439 Speaker 2: Meanwhile, Apple's lost about seven hundred billion dollars worth of 283 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:44,720 Speaker 2: its market cap since the tariffs were imposed. Let's get 284 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:46,880 Speaker 2: more on what the one hundred and four percent tariffs 285 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:50,000 Speaker 2: on Chinese goods could mean for the tech world, and 286 00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 2: of course the eight percent counter tariff on US exports 287 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 2: to China. Riva Gujano's with US director for Roodium Group Riva. 288 00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 2: It's really interesting to understand how supply chains are going 289 00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:01,480 Speaker 2: to be impacted by all of this, because we know 290 00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:04,240 Speaker 2: that in many ways China is the assembly point for apples. 291 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:06,160 Speaker 2: Some of the products in an Apple phone are actually 292 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:07,839 Speaker 2: made in Kentucky and ship to China and then ship 293 00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:10,880 Speaker 2: back to US. But ultimately, are we in a game 294 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:12,559 Speaker 2: of chicken when it comes to US China tip for 295 00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:13,200 Speaker 2: tat right now? 296 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:16,640 Speaker 10: Well, yeah, at one hundred and four percent tariffs, I'd 297 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 10: say so. And so yeah, there are loaded assumptions on 298 00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:23,160 Speaker 10: both the US and the Chinese sides over this trade war. 299 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 10: Each side believes the others, in the weaker economic position 300 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:29,720 Speaker 10: that the other one will fold, and Beijing at this 301 00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:33,080 Speaker 10: point is basically saying bring it right. They're counting on 302 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:37,600 Speaker 10: US inventories to get shaved down. People checking their Amazon 303 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:40,760 Speaker 10: orders and seeing that they're not coming through, going to Walmart, 304 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:43,800 Speaker 10: seeing their shelves empty out, and so at that point, 305 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:47,360 Speaker 10: this is obviously going to force a conversation, but to 306 00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 10: what end. Right, there's not much fodder for real negotiation here. 307 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:54,240 Speaker 10: You could have some sort of a reset, maybe getting 308 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 10: back to let's say fifty four percent tariffs, but that's 309 00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:01,080 Speaker 10: not much of a win here right after this scale 310 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:04,600 Speaker 10: of disruption, and already supply chains as you as you mentioned, 311 00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:05,960 Speaker 10: are going to be greatly disrupted. 312 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:09,080 Speaker 2: We've heard time and time again that the US thinks 313 00:15:09,200 --> 00:15:11,960 Speaker 2: China wants to make a deal. Do you think that 314 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:14,480 Speaker 2: ultimately it does that we ever get to a better 315 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:17,760 Speaker 2: outcome in this scenario, because there are companies currently locked 316 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:19,560 Speaker 2: not knowing what to do in this scenario as to 317 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:21,720 Speaker 2: whether the tariff's a short term a long term. 318 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:25,920 Speaker 10: Look, China would of course love a real negotiation with 319 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 10: the US that spans into other domains as well, to say, 320 00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:33,000 Speaker 10: for example, okay, if the US wants to reduce its 321 00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 10: trade deficit with China, then fine, let's talk about large 322 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:39,800 Speaker 10: scale purchases. Let's talk about importing more in video semiconductors, 323 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 10: for example, which would in part then blow apart the 324 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:45,240 Speaker 10: export control regime. You can see how Beijing would be 325 00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:47,480 Speaker 10: angling for that now with that happen, I think that's 326 00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 10: very low likelihood because remember we're just talking about a 327 00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 10: conflict spiral in the trade domain right now. There is 328 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:56,040 Speaker 10: a whole other layer here when it comes to the 329 00:15:56,080 --> 00:16:00,440 Speaker 10: tech controls trajectory escalation on that front also, so how 330 00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 10: China is getting more creative with its own retaliatory toolkit, 331 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:07,880 Speaker 10: which is going to put multinationals in China, particularly tech companies, 332 00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 10: in a very difficult position in the months ahead. 333 00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:13,240 Speaker 3: So I want to stay on this point because for 334 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 3: the technology industry, tariffs are one tool or policy point, 335 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:20,320 Speaker 3: and the export of technology and the controls and those exports, 336 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 3: as you point out, were the most significant prior to 337 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:28,440 Speaker 3: last week. Do you expect both to increase? In other words, 338 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 3: where we see further specific controls by the United States 339 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:35,200 Speaker 3: on cutting edge GPUs and other technology. 340 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 10: So attention span is a question right for the current 341 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:44,160 Speaker 10: US administration, We'll have to see you as BIS under 342 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:47,440 Speaker 10: commerce is starting to ramp up, is it going to 343 00:16:47,480 --> 00:16:50,840 Speaker 10: have the latitude to patch up export controls? For example, 344 00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 10: there have been pending controls to expand chip controls to 345 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 10: cover for example, in VIDEAH twenty chips in the wake 346 00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:01,600 Speaker 10: of deep Seek's big breakthrough. But there's more than that, right, 347 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:05,760 Speaker 10: there's a bigger conversation around how do you evolve economic 348 00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 10: security standards that effectively exclude China from AI infrastructure build 349 00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:14,199 Speaker 10: outs globally. So there's a lot more that's coming on 350 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:18,440 Speaker 10: the tech front. And meanwhile, China's looking at a number 351 00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:21,640 Speaker 10: of retaliatory tools where it's singling out US big tech 352 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 10: companies as well. 353 00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:27,359 Speaker 3: It's REVA. How do you interpret China's responses China's actions. 354 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:30,720 Speaker 10: In this, Yeah, so a few things, right, So when 355 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 10: you look beyond the tip for tat on the tariffs, right, 356 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:38,720 Speaker 10: China's doing some interesting things where, for example, in it's 357 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:42,800 Speaker 10: implementing provisions for the Anti Foreign Sanctions Law, it's talking 358 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:47,400 Speaker 10: about countermeasures that include suspending IP rights for US companies 359 00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:50,920 Speaker 10: in China. That's explosive. Right, if China goes down that path, 360 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:53,720 Speaker 10: that's a very slippery slope. That's something that's going to 361 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:56,400 Speaker 10: spread alarm, not just to US companies, right, but Japanese, 362 00:17:56,440 --> 00:18:02,120 Speaker 10: European everyone, once you start to break apart those norms. Moreover, 363 00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:05,840 Speaker 10: you know, China has its anti monopoly arm sammer that 364 00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:08,760 Speaker 10: has veto power over a number of strategic m and 365 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:11,639 Speaker 10: a around the world. There are a lot of strategic 366 00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:14,240 Speaker 10: deals that are supposed to be struck as a result 367 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:16,720 Speaker 10: of these trade wars. At least that's the intent of 368 00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 10: the administration. We still don't know, for example, what's going 369 00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:22,560 Speaker 10: to happen with Intel and TSMC. Right as Intel has 370 00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 10: been struggling, do you really think that the US is 371 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:29,440 Speaker 10: going to recognize the Chinese veto over a major merger 372 00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:34,040 Speaker 10: that is based on national security arguments? So we're already 373 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:38,960 Speaker 10: vearying toward this conflict of law conundrum on that front, 374 00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:41,399 Speaker 10: as well as on the IP front, which again is 375 00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:43,280 Speaker 10: a very slippery slope for tech companies. 376 00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:47,120 Speaker 3: With Gujon, director at Roodium Group, really great having the show. 377 00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:47,600 Speaker 8: Thank you. 378 00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:58,400 Speaker 2: President Trump's AI promises. They started strong with the announcement 379 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:01,119 Speaker 2: of a five hundred billion dollar style Gate infrastructure project 380 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:04,479 Speaker 2: back in January. Remember, but his new Liberation Day agenda 381 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:08,440 Speaker 2: looks set to undermine those earlier AI ambitions. Bluemberg Opinion 382 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 2: columnists Daily writing, the Trump taroff agenda risks a cascading 383 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:15,639 Speaker 2: effect that will drag down the America AI effort. The 384 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 2: new economic order could force the American AI industry to 385 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:22,520 Speaker 2: compete on China's terms rather than harness its own strengths. 386 00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:24,719 Speaker 2: Davely is with us now. And when you say compete 387 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:28,119 Speaker 2: on China terms, ultimately it's about forcing them not to 388 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:31,880 Speaker 2: have access to the most sophistic GPUs and therefore having 389 00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:34,320 Speaker 2: to do more with less. We become more Deep. 390 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:37,040 Speaker 11: Seek absolutely exactly like Deep Sea. I mean, you remember 391 00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:39,320 Speaker 11: when there was the market sell off when deep Seek 392 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:43,879 Speaker 11: made its arrival because everyone thought, wow, China knows how 393 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 11: to do this more cheaply and with less computing power 394 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:49,919 Speaker 11: and so on. But the American response, and the response 395 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:51,679 Speaker 11: that we got from the likes of Saturn Adella at 396 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:55,000 Speaker 11: Microsoft was don't worry, because our differentiate is we can 397 00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:57,760 Speaker 11: do this on a bigger scale with more computing power. 398 00:19:57,760 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 11: We can serve more people, we can do more inferencing. 399 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,920 Speaker 11: You know, the powering of AI once you've you've trained it. 400 00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 11: Now if all of that gets more expensive, which these 401 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 11: towers seems set to do, then all of a sudden 402 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:11,959 Speaker 11: that advantage doesn't go away completely, but I think it 403 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 11: becomes just harder to deploy, and it could take longer 404 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:17,359 Speaker 11: to deploy it as well. So I've had, you know, 405 00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:18,879 Speaker 11: I've talking to a number of people who have said, 406 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,840 Speaker 11: maybe if you're a small startup in the space, you 407 00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:23,919 Speaker 11: might be thinking maybe we could try and become more 408 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 11: of a deep seek than you know, an open AI 409 00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:27,440 Speaker 11: for example. 410 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 3: Well, your core point is that the ability of a 411 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 3: Meta or an Amazon or a Microsoft to invest was 412 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:38,240 Speaker 3: built on its core businesses and that is where the 413 00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:40,800 Speaker 3: uncertainty impact comes. I think at least. 414 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:45,000 Speaker 11: Yeah, absolutely, And last earning season, all of these companies 415 00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:48,000 Speaker 11: came out and said and shared their capex plans for 416 00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:49,960 Speaker 11: the year, and they were huge. I think I tossed 417 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:51,679 Speaker 11: up at one point more than three hundred and fifty 418 00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:53,879 Speaker 11: billion dollars that is going to be spent on data 419 00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:56,800 Speaker 11: centers and you know, getting more energy and so forth. 420 00:20:57,280 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 11: That money, even if they keep at those levels, which 421 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,000 Speaker 11: I think is in question, it's not going to go 422 00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:05,040 Speaker 11: as far because building these data centers just got considerably 423 00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:07,600 Speaker 11: more expensive, even though the sort of core component of 424 00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:10,280 Speaker 11: the semiconductor right now is the subject to a tariff, 425 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:12,840 Speaker 11: although some are speculating that it might be in the 426 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:16,800 Speaker 11: not to some future. So yes, and all of that 427 00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:21,119 Speaker 11: spending was concocted and agreed to it, you know, backed 428 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:23,720 Speaker 11: by investors on the basis that companies like Apple have 429 00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,120 Speaker 11: the iPhone and it was a rowing business, or companies 430 00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:30,200 Speaker 11: like Meta have this great advertising business that just prints money. 431 00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:32,200 Speaker 11: That may not be the case anymore. 432 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:37,120 Speaker 3: Daily a Bloomberg opinion, it's a must read today. Liberation day, 433 00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:37,960 Speaker 3: Thank you very much. 434 00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:49,040 Speaker 11: This is like uncharted territory we are talking about here. 435 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:51,240 Speaker 12: It's really tough to be a technology You have to 436 00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:52,400 Speaker 12: wear a company right now. 437 00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:54,600 Speaker 13: I think the more significant area that is a factor 438 00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:58,119 Speaker 13: is the Asian nations to have deeply and better supply Chaine. 439 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:01,240 Speaker 9: Obviously, Apple is more of a because of the tariffs 440 00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:05,159 Speaker 9: and what they manufacture in China. Right the rest of 441 00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:07,919 Speaker 9: the MAC seven, more of the communication names. They're a 442 00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,400 Speaker 9: little bit better space, but it's not as if anyone's 443 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 9: in great space. 444 00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:13,320 Speaker 12: From a valuation perspective, I think the good news is 445 00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:16,000 Speaker 12: we don't have a valuation problem in tech. 446 00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:18,560 Speaker 14: Mega SIN seven is something like fifty five percent of 447 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:21,080 Speaker 14: profits coming from overseas, So while they have a lot 448 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:24,080 Speaker 14: of secular AI driven growth, they also tend to have 449 00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:26,640 Speaker 14: a lot of international driven growth. So we don't really 450 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:29,880 Speaker 14: see MAG seven coming back to the fore. If these 451 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:30,639 Speaker 14: tariffs stick. 452 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:34,040 Speaker 12: Big tech has massive recash flow generation, even if we 453 00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 12: kind of discount some of the tariff issues at hand. 454 00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:43,680 Speaker 3: Right now, that's what some of Bloomberg Television's recent guests 455 00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:45,639 Speaker 3: had to say about the impact of tariffs on the 456 00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,000 Speaker 3: tech sector. And this is what markets look like right now. 457 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:50,560 Speaker 3: Way off session highs on the Nasdaq one hundred, you know, 458 00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:53,440 Speaker 3: I go to the NAZDAK one hundred cause concentration of tech. 459 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:56,560 Speaker 3: But then as that Golden Dragon China index really interested US, 460 00:22:56,640 --> 00:23:00,639 Speaker 3: listed ADRs of many Chinese technology companies been higher two 461 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:02,920 Speaker 3: and a half percent now lowering the session, and we're 462 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:06,800 Speaker 3: trying to digest China's retaliative measures single names. This is 463 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,200 Speaker 3: what we're looking like in the green. Apple continues to 464 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:12,080 Speaker 3: push hiring. Caroline made a really important point earlier prior 465 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:15,359 Speaker 3: to this session, four straight days of declines where Apple 466 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:19,440 Speaker 3: experienced its biggest drop since the year two thousand. That's important. 467 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:20,520 Speaker 3: We should keep saying. 468 00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:20,720 Speaker 1: That, KARC. 469 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:24,000 Speaker 2: We should. But also what's interesting in another data point 470 00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,120 Speaker 2: that you and I saw today, the PC shipment data, 471 00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:30,879 Speaker 2: it actually grew the fastest quarterly pace in four years. 472 00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:35,159 Speaker 2: Has has companies stocked up inventory ahead of tariffs? Look desktops, workstations, 473 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,359 Speaker 2: portable computers. They rose more than nine percent, according to 474 00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:41,560 Speaker 2: market tracker Canalis. For more on how these tarifts are 475 00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:44,440 Speaker 2: impacting tech supply chains, We've got the perfect guest, David Warwick, 476 00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,880 Speaker 2: executive vice president over an overhaul a supply chain visibility 477 00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:50,400 Speaker 2: and risk management company, who work for Microsoft for years 478 00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:54,359 Speaker 2: overseeing their global supply chain. Have companies how long have 479 00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,800 Speaker 2: they bought in terms of inventory because they seem to 480 00:23:57,840 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 2: see the risk while investors didn't. 481 00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,399 Speaker 15: I mean, and I think everybody has known this is 482 00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:05,680 Speaker 15: coming at some level, and so what they've been trying 483 00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:06,840 Speaker 15: to do is they've been trying. 484 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:08,480 Speaker 8: To prepare as best they can. 485 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,119 Speaker 15: And you know, even this week, you know, in the 486 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:13,639 Speaker 15: last seven or ten days, what we've seen is an 487 00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:17,399 Speaker 15: increase in rates for air cargo coming out of China, 488 00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:19,920 Speaker 15: which means that you know, supply is drying up a 489 00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:21,800 Speaker 15: little bit, and people are still trying to move as 490 00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:25,920 Speaker 15: much product as they can before they were impacted by tariffs. 491 00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:28,040 Speaker 8: So I think that companies have tried to be smart, 492 00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:28,720 Speaker 8: They've tried. 493 00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:31,399 Speaker 15: To position themselves as best they can, but I'm not 494 00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:34,800 Speaker 15: sure that anybody actually saw the sheer extent of these 495 00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:35,960 Speaker 15: tariffs and what it would mean. 496 00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:40,280 Speaker 2: You are currently still advising the Microsoft's the dicens. I 497 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:43,680 Speaker 2: go to the data that shows that China is basically 498 00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:47,359 Speaker 2: ninety percent of all consoles coming from China to the 499 00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:51,520 Speaker 2: United States, and I'm interested as what on earth Xbox 500 00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:55,000 Speaker 2: executives do at this moment. Are they thinking, Okay, longer term, 501 00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,399 Speaker 2: we shift our supply chain even further away from China, 502 00:24:57,480 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 2: or do they just ride this out in the short term. 503 00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:03,199 Speaker 8: I think that it's a very challenging situation to be in. 504 00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:05,400 Speaker 15: I think that, you know, the advice that I'm giving 505 00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:08,160 Speaker 15: a lot of companies right now is basically to hurry 506 00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:12,120 Speaker 15: up and wait and making a strategic decision today could 507 00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:15,400 Speaker 15: fall apart very quickly within the next week, as we've 508 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:18,040 Speaker 15: kind of seen over the last month, Caroline, you know, 509 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:21,640 Speaker 15: we saw the Mexico, Canada dispute. We saw a lot 510 00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:24,159 Speaker 15: of things happening there very quickly. If you'd made a 511 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:28,360 Speaker 15: strategic decision to move everything overnight, you could have been 512 00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:29,679 Speaker 15: caught on the wrong side of that. 513 00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:32,440 Speaker 8: So right now, I think that you know, it's not 514 00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:33,920 Speaker 8: just the consoles. 515 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:36,000 Speaker 15: It's not just PCs, it's across the board, And I 516 00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:39,159 Speaker 15: think that companies have to be really, really thoughtful in 517 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:42,920 Speaker 15: terms of their immediate next steps versus their longer term strategies. 518 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,440 Speaker 15: If the tireff stick and if we have to ride 519 00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:48,560 Speaker 15: out this entire storm, it's a different set of decisions 520 00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:50,840 Speaker 15: that you would make if you knew that this was 521 00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:52,960 Speaker 15: going to happen for you know, maybe three months and 522 00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:54,520 Speaker 15: then start to taper off. 523 00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:56,720 Speaker 8: So it's a very challenging time for. 524 00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,240 Speaker 15: Supply chains and trying to figure out the short term 525 00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:01,600 Speaker 15: versus the media term versus the long term. 526 00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:06,960 Speaker 3: David, explain to our audience how an iPhone would be 527 00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 3: built or assembled in the United States and what the 528 00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:14,040 Speaker 3: price impact would be based on your experience. 529 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,320 Speaker 15: That's a challenging question, Ed, I'm not sure you know, 530 00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:19,639 Speaker 15: I'm not sure that I understand the full extent of 531 00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:22,520 Speaker 15: the Apple supply chain. But look, you've got to understand 532 00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:25,840 Speaker 15: that this is not about just moving a manufacturing plant. 533 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,359 Speaker 15: This is an ecosystem. The tier two suppliers, the Tier 534 00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:32,640 Speaker 15: three suppliers have all built up over time around those 535 00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:35,200 Speaker 15: specific factories in China. 536 00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:36,840 Speaker 8: Or in Vietnam or in India, and. 537 00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:39,840 Speaker 15: It takes time to develop that ecosystem. So what would 538 00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:41,679 Speaker 15: it take. Well, you have to build a factory. Then 539 00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:44,119 Speaker 15: you have to develop that ecosystem to be able to 540 00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:47,440 Speaker 15: supply that factory. You have to source your raw materials, 541 00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:51,280 Speaker 15: you have to source your semi finished goods, your sub assemblies. 542 00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,359 Speaker 8: And bring all of those in. So this isn't just 543 00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:54,840 Speaker 8: flicking a switch. 544 00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:57,680 Speaker 15: And you build a new factory and everything starts up again. 545 00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:00,719 Speaker 15: It takes time to build that ecosystem them and to 546 00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:03,200 Speaker 15: make sure that your supply chain meains intact from a 547 00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:05,000 Speaker 15: quality perspective and everything else. 548 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:07,560 Speaker 3: That was a pretty good answer, David. To be fair, 549 00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:10,159 Speaker 3: I think that sums up well. And I know Tesla 550 00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:13,760 Speaker 3: in its local supply chain in Shanghai has a similar situation. 551 00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:17,400 Speaker 3: What happens in four years time if there's a completely 552 00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:19,679 Speaker 3: different administration in the White House and all of the 553 00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:22,600 Speaker 3: tariffs get undone and the executives at the companies you 554 00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:27,200 Speaker 3: advise decided to do something extreme in adjusting their supply 555 00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:28,480 Speaker 3: chain here and now. 556 00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:32,080 Speaker 15: I think in the first case, I'll be a little 557 00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:34,320 Speaker 15: bit bored. If at all reverses, then you know, I'm 558 00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:36,520 Speaker 15: not sure what I'll be doing every day. But you know, 559 00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:40,840 Speaker 15: I think that this short term versus medium term versus 560 00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:43,320 Speaker 15: long term, I think that that is where we're caught 561 00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:46,320 Speaker 15: in a trap right now, whereby it's very difficult to 562 00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:48,960 Speaker 15: make that long term decision because to your point, a 563 00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:52,119 Speaker 15: new administration could decide to go in a very different 564 00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:55,159 Speaker 15: direction from a trade perspective, and so supply chains have 565 00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:58,520 Speaker 15: to be cautiously. We were taught some lessons over the 566 00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,919 Speaker 15: last five years through COVID. We realized that our supply 567 00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:04,760 Speaker 15: chains were ultimately fragile, and we had to find a 568 00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:08,080 Speaker 15: better way to build some resilience into those supply chains. 569 00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:10,720 Speaker 15: So we diversified a little bit. We started to move 570 00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:14,439 Speaker 15: manufacturing to other countries. We started to do very sensible things. 571 00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:17,000 Speaker 15: Did we do that to the level that we should 572 00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:19,720 Speaker 15: have done it? Maybe not, Maybe there was more room 573 00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,919 Speaker 15: to actually move things aby, But I think supply chains 574 00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:25,840 Speaker 15: now you know, we are problem solver. Supply chain practitioners 575 00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:29,640 Speaker 15: are designed to solve problems. This is another major problem. 576 00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:32,080 Speaker 15: Call it a gray swan or a black swan. It's 577 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:34,600 Speaker 15: another major problem that we have to deal with. It 578 00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:37,080 Speaker 15: will force a change in terms of high supply chains. 579 00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:40,240 Speaker 15: Think high supply chains are engineered over the coming years. 580 00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:43,360 Speaker 2: And ultimately you might have tried to front run by 581 00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:45,880 Speaker 2: moving out of China as many have take it Apple 582 00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:50,280 Speaker 2: more into India and Vietnam, and ultimately they've been tariff too. 583 00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:52,720 Speaker 2: I mean, of course to a less extent when it 584 00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:56,120 Speaker 2: comes to India. But longer term, then are we seeing 585 00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,520 Speaker 2: companies willing to hit the margin when you've got a 586 00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:02,000 Speaker 2: record gross margin of forty six point nine percent for 587 00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:05,520 Speaker 2: Apple recently. In the short term they swallow it, David, 588 00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:08,240 Speaker 2: Is that what Dyson's and Microsoft do? They take the 589 00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,200 Speaker 2: hit until they get long term charity. 590 00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,520 Speaker 15: I think in the short term, any supply chain will 591 00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:18,000 Speaker 15: look at what can be done. So if you've already 592 00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:21,400 Speaker 15: diversified to some level, and you've moved production to more 593 00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:25,000 Speaker 15: friendlier tariff countries, you would look now to say, is 594 00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:28,360 Speaker 15: there any excess capacity available? Can I move maybe from 595 00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:31,640 Speaker 15: a China to a Philippines or to Malaysia to reduce 596 00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:32,920 Speaker 15: some of that tariff burden. 597 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:35,800 Speaker 8: However, you know, the longer term. 598 00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,680 Speaker 15: Is going to be Okay, what does a tar friendly 599 00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:39,960 Speaker 15: country actually look like? 600 00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:42,680 Speaker 8: Have we actually moved the dynamics too far? 601 00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:47,160 Speaker 15: And you know, we're all hoping that this will actually 602 00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:51,160 Speaker 15: roll over. We are all hoping that the president will 603 00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:53,520 Speaker 15: do as he says and he is open to negotiation, 604 00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:56,200 Speaker 15: and the countries are coming to the table. We've heard today, 605 00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:58,959 Speaker 15: South Korea, Japan are already coming to the table. 606 00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:00,160 Speaker 8: From a supply chain. 607 00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:03,440 Speaker 15: Perspective, we're hoping that common sense will prevail and there 608 00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:06,760 Speaker 15: will be a more balanced trading agreements set setup trading 609 00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:09,920 Speaker 15: agreements put in place in the coming weeks and months, 610 00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:12,880 Speaker 15: which will alleviate some of the current pin but it 611 00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:15,920 Speaker 15: still doesn't take away from the longer term strategy nine 612 00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:18,320 Speaker 15: needs to be figured on, and that's what supply chains 613 00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:19,600 Speaker 15: are going to be working hard to do. 614 00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:22,360 Speaker 2: David. I'm going to make a really pointed question on 615 00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:25,040 Speaker 2: many of the executives you're talking to taking it seriously 616 00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:27,760 Speaker 2: that they need to build or assemble in the United 617 00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:31,120 Speaker 2: States more fully, a lot. 618 00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:34,960 Speaker 15: Of executives are certainly having the discussion, they're looking at 619 00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:39,240 Speaker 15: the implications of obviously the capital cost and also the 620 00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:41,920 Speaker 15: timeline is involved. You know, setting up a factory in 621 00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:44,240 Speaker 15: the United States to manufacture in the United States. 622 00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:46,000 Speaker 8: You don't do that overnight. 623 00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:48,840 Speaker 15: And then, as I said earlier, it's the ecosystem which 624 00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:51,400 Speaker 15: is the really important part. How long will it take 625 00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:54,200 Speaker 15: to actually, you know, bring all those things together. 626 00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:56,080 Speaker 8: I answered a question earlier. 627 00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,520 Speaker 15: On this week in a different interview where somebody said, hey, 628 00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:02,600 Speaker 15: you know, for a American med products, how are going 629 00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:04,840 Speaker 15: to be impacted by the new China tariffs? 630 00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,920 Speaker 8: And my question to that question. 631 00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:09,880 Speaker 15: Was, well, what do you mean by American made products? 632 00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:13,000 Speaker 15: You're talking about chocolate in this instance, you know, where 633 00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,200 Speaker 15: does the coca come from to make that chocolate? 634 00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:17,440 Speaker 8: It in itself is subject. 635 00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:19,840 Speaker 15: To a tariff coming into the US to manufacture in 636 00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:20,360 Speaker 15: the US. 637 00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:23,040 Speaker 8: Supply chains are complicated. Supply chains are. 638 00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:28,160 Speaker 15: Very very complex elements, and so figuring these pieces out 639 00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:31,440 Speaker 15: is everything that executives are doing right now to understand 640 00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:34,160 Speaker 15: the impact but also to understand what can be done next. 641 00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:38,640 Speaker 3: Hair dryers, toasters all come from China as well. David 642 00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:41,360 Speaker 3: Warwick from Overhaul, really great conversation. Thank you for joining US. 643 00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:43,640 Speaker 2: Care now coming up. We're going to get the VC 644 00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:46,360 Speaker 2: the private market perspective. Ben Lahra is with US VC 645 00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:49,640 Speaker 2: firm Lara Hippo is actually just closed a mammoth two 646 00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:53,680 Speaker 2: hundred million dollars round for a new fund. Amiddle this uncertainty, 647 00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:55,520 Speaker 2: how they do it? This is a broom, big technology 648 00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:07,840 Speaker 2: VC firm. Lara Hippo is just closed a two hundred 649 00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:11,800 Speaker 2: million dollar fund. It's ninth early stage one. This is 650 00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:15,560 Speaker 2: vcs and startups faced Tarif anxiety, many opting to pause 651 00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:18,800 Speaker 2: plans for IPOs. But yet the conviction is there from LPs. 652 00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:21,640 Speaker 2: Let's talk about why Nara Hippo managing partner Ben Lara 653 00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:23,920 Speaker 2: joins us. Now, Ben, how did you get this over 654 00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:25,280 Speaker 2: the line in this current environment? 655 00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:30,040 Speaker 16: Yeah, I think Look, one of the one of the 656 00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:32,800 Speaker 16: things we're proudest of is that we, over a long 657 00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:36,000 Speaker 16: period of time, have been really consistent and I think 658 00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:38,640 Speaker 16: pretty disciplined. We do one thing, we do one thing well, 659 00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:42,920 Speaker 16: which is true early stage investing. And so while markets 660 00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:46,880 Speaker 16: rise and fall, and you know, lots of things outside 661 00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:49,960 Speaker 16: of our control happened in the background, we don't tend 662 00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:53,240 Speaker 16: to get sucked into sort of hype cycles. And and 663 00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:55,480 Speaker 16: I you know, it's sort of been reflected in our returns, 664 00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:59,080 Speaker 16: and so we're fortunate that LPs continue to support us, 665 00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:02,760 Speaker 16: and you know, we're but let's say, we're happy to 666 00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:03,680 Speaker 16: have this behind us. 667 00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:07,040 Speaker 3: In this book, Ben, you know, we've discussed for many 668 00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:10,719 Speaker 3: years how early stage companies and their investors are more 669 00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:15,440 Speaker 3: like insulated from public markets and macro events until what 670 00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:19,480 Speaker 3: happened with Silicon Valley Bank and it became about operational 671 00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:22,400 Speaker 3: cash flow. Right, But you're still doing a new fund. 672 00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:25,320 Speaker 3: This report's about andresen doing a very very big fund. 673 00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:28,280 Speaker 3: Just talk to me about that environment more specifically at 674 00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:29,200 Speaker 3: the early stage. 675 00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:33,600 Speaker 16: Yeah, And actually I think the SVB crisis was for 676 00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:36,720 Speaker 16: certain funds a wake up call where you know, that 677 00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:39,200 Speaker 16: was sort of coming out of a hype cycle in 678 00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:43,200 Speaker 16: twenty one where money was flowing very freely. Companies were 679 00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:45,760 Speaker 16: raising lots of money and chasing growth at all costs. 680 00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:50,640 Speaker 16: And I think even for us at LH, we took 681 00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:54,080 Speaker 16: a moment to be very introspective and say, are we 682 00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:56,960 Speaker 16: on a company by company by company bases making sure 683 00:33:57,000 --> 00:34:00,840 Speaker 16: that folks are being really responsible and not falling prey 684 00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:04,320 Speaker 16: to lots of late stage money chasing hot companies and 685 00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:09,359 Speaker 16: driving some not great behaviors. And right now as we 686 00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:11,400 Speaker 16: sort of enter another moment of prices, I think that 687 00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:15,879 Speaker 16: some of the learnings from from that last significant sort 688 00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:19,680 Speaker 16: of blip have set at least our portfolio up in 689 00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:21,560 Speaker 16: a way where we feel like we have arms around 690 00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:24,320 Speaker 16: every company in the portfolio, where companies on a quarter 691 00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:27,359 Speaker 16: by quarter basis are burning less and less are being 692 00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:31,040 Speaker 16: are just taking more responsibility for building really sustainable long 693 00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:34,719 Speaker 16: term businesses and falling a little bit less sort of 694 00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:38,520 Speaker 16: a victim to getting on the late stage VC, you know, 695 00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:40,160 Speaker 16: sort of hamster wheel. 696 00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:44,160 Speaker 3: Well kind of companies. Where are the companies? And how 697 00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:47,160 Speaker 3: much of an unlock has AI been? Because what I 698 00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:49,200 Speaker 3: here's my in box all the time right now and 699 00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:51,799 Speaker 3: is discussed in the zeitgeist, is you don't need to 700 00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:54,719 Speaker 3: learn how to code anymore. You know, previously, if you 701 00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:57,000 Speaker 3: pitched at Y Combinator or something and you didn't code 702 00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,600 Speaker 3: or have anyone your team that was a computer science 703 00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:02,799 Speaker 3: that would be dead for you. That avenue. I think 704 00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:05,000 Speaker 3: that's changed, right, Yeah. 705 00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:08,120 Speaker 16: Look, I mean our goal has always been sort of 706 00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:10,600 Speaker 16: to find great talent as true early stage investors. That's 707 00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:13,760 Speaker 16: the key to every investment that we make, and AI 708 00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:15,880 Speaker 16: is going to be an unlock in every single industry. 709 00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:19,239 Speaker 16: And frankly, if you're not leaning in incredibly heavily to 710 00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:22,239 Speaker 16: AI as an existing business or certainly as a sort 711 00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:26,600 Speaker 16: of Denobo startup, you're missing a huge opportunity to create 712 00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:30,080 Speaker 16: efficiency and move faster. And the tools that exist now 713 00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:34,320 Speaker 16: in terms of you know, helping companies code and build 714 00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:38,200 Speaker 16: product faster are unbelievable. There are companies in our portfolio 715 00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:41,319 Speaker 16: that are writing less than five percent of code by 716 00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:44,080 Speaker 16: hand at this point and are really just prompting and 717 00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:48,160 Speaker 16: managing third party AI software who are helping them with 718 00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:51,839 Speaker 16: much smaller teams, create unbelievable leverage in their business. It's 719 00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:55,400 Speaker 16: really exciting, but it's also terrifying because it's moving so quickly, 720 00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:57,640 Speaker 16: and you know, we're kitting ourselves if we know how 721 00:35:57,640 --> 00:36:00,640 Speaker 16: this all sort of where this land and where the 722 00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:03,919 Speaker 16: value falls and what is owned by the big large 723 00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:07,240 Speaker 16: language models and what's going to be owned by application 724 00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:10,640 Speaker 16: layer companies, and so you know, we take solace in 725 00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:14,080 Speaker 16: the idea that we're going to back incredible people and 726 00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:16,560 Speaker 16: they're going to navigate through this challenging environment and we're 727 00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:18,360 Speaker 16: going to be there to help keep them on the rails. 728 00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:21,160 Speaker 2: A big personal fan of ba ble Bar, I can 729 00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:23,719 Speaker 2: imagine that's the sort of company that's having to think 730 00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:26,080 Speaker 2: about it supply chains right now. Ben. But I go 731 00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:29,959 Speaker 2: to that company because many associate you with consumer focused tech, 732 00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:33,160 Speaker 2: but you are exposed to enterprise. You've got fingers in 733 00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:36,920 Speaker 2: the fintech space in DeFi as well. You're across the board. 734 00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:40,000 Speaker 2: But when you're looking at the consumer opportunity right now, Ben, 735 00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:41,520 Speaker 2: how unnerving is that? 736 00:36:43,239 --> 00:36:43,719 Speaker 8: Yeah? 737 00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:48,560 Speaker 16: So I think that you know, we've been talking to 738 00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:52,120 Speaker 16: our sort of scaled consumer companies about tariffs and what 739 00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:55,840 Speaker 16: the implications of this could would should be over the 740 00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:58,320 Speaker 16: last several months. I think the best and most mature 741 00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:03,160 Speaker 16: businesses have been planning for this and have you know, 742 00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:05,880 Speaker 16: there's there's and have some mitigations in place. But the 743 00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:07,920 Speaker 16: reality is that there are companies that this is gonna 744 00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:11,320 Speaker 16: punch directly in the face and and it's going to 745 00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:12,879 Speaker 16: be unpleasant and they're going to need to figure out 746 00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:14,480 Speaker 16: how to manage through it. I think people are also 747 00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:16,520 Speaker 16: it's just so unclear. 748 00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:17,160 Speaker 7: You know that the. 749 00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:21,759 Speaker 16: Floor moves by the hour right now, and so I 750 00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:24,400 Speaker 16: think people don't want to over rotate and over respond 751 00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:27,680 Speaker 16: and you know, decide that they're absolutely positively pulling out 752 00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:31,360 Speaker 16: of China on a permanent basis. But it's going to 753 00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:33,319 Speaker 16: be It's something that companies are going to manage through. 754 00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:35,560 Speaker 16: People had to manage through COVID, and we saw the 755 00:37:35,560 --> 00:37:40,640 Speaker 16: best founders handle that not easily, but survive and thrive 756 00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:42,160 Speaker 16: on the backside of it. And the same is going 757 00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:45,360 Speaker 16: to happen here. I really believe that the best founders fight. 758 00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:47,480 Speaker 2: Away and then you're known for investing right here in 759 00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:49,000 Speaker 2: New York. Is that still a thesis? 760 00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:52,440 Speaker 16: Yeah, I mean we are huge believers in New York. 761 00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:54,160 Speaker 16: I grew up in New York. We started the fund 762 00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:56,759 Speaker 16: here in New York on a sort of high level 763 00:37:56,760 --> 00:38:01,239 Speaker 16: bet that New York has always had unbelievable talent, but 764 00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:04,920 Speaker 16: twenty years ago that talent naturally matriculated first to Wall Street, 765 00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,439 Speaker 16: and over time that talent now wants to go work 766 00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:10,359 Speaker 16: in tech. That's the biggest growth area that New York 767 00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:13,600 Speaker 16: has seen over the last decade in terms of job 768 00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:16,200 Speaker 16: growth and company growth. We think it's going to continue, 769 00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:20,680 Speaker 16: and we again see that sort of overlap of very 770 00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:23,400 Speaker 16: early stage in New York as a competitive edge for 771 00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:25,160 Speaker 16: US in a space where we have real right to win. 772 00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:26,400 Speaker 8: So we're going to keep doing that. 773 00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:28,840 Speaker 3: Ben Lara, Larryhip, it's great to have you back on 774 00:38:28,840 --> 00:38:32,239 Speaker 3: the program. Appreciate it. Thank you, Caroline. Some news in talking. 775 00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:34,520 Speaker 2: Tech, Yeah, time for talking tech. First up, Google ed 776 00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:37,800 Speaker 2: plans to help developers build AI assistance for a variety 777 00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:40,279 Speaker 2: of tasks at its annual Cloud Computing conference in Las 778 00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:42,960 Speaker 2: Vegas yesterday. The company said it would release the Agent 779 00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:46,239 Speaker 2: Development Kit, which can increase dependence on and revenue for 780 00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:49,920 Speaker 2: as cloud services. Plus the EU It's just presented a 781 00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:52,280 Speaker 2: plan to boost its AI industry and help it compete 782 00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:54,520 Speaker 2: more aggressively with the US and China. One of the 783 00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:57,360 Speaker 2: ways Europe plans to bolster regional AI developments is a 784 00:38:57,400 --> 00:39:00,399 Speaker 2: commitment to build a network of AI factories and create 785 00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,520 Speaker 2: specialized labs to improve the access of startups to high 786 00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:06,960 Speaker 2: quality training data. And The Energy and Commerce Committee just 787 00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:10,920 Speaker 2: approved a bipartisan bill known as Take It Down Act, 788 00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:13,839 Speaker 2: which aims to curb the spread of unauthorized deep fake pornography. 789 00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:16,719 Speaker 2: Getting the bill to the President's desk could mark one 790 00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:19,160 Speaker 2: of the most significant actions by Congress to respond to 791 00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:21,560 Speaker 2: risks and harms posed by AI ed. 792 00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:25,520 Speaker 3: Another news story we're watching, a Meta whistleblow is set 793 00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:29,360 Speaker 3: to testify before Congress, claiming that the social media giant 794 00:39:29,440 --> 00:39:33,200 Speaker 3: threaten US national security as it cozied up with China. 795 00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:36,480 Speaker 3: The former Meta executive alleges that the company brief members 796 00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:40,440 Speaker 3: of the CCP on emerging tech, which includes AI. Metas 797 00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:43,600 Speaker 3: denying those allegations. For let's bringing Bloomberg's Riley Griffin here 798 00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:45,359 Speaker 3: in SF what do we need to watch for? This 799 00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:46,359 Speaker 3: is going to happen very soon. 800 00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:49,279 Speaker 7: Yes, this is coming later today. In Washington, d C. 801 00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:52,200 Speaker 7: We're seeing Sarah wyn Williams, the author of the best 802 00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:55,680 Speaker 7: selling memoir Now Careless People, be asked to speak before 803 00:39:55,800 --> 00:40:00,600 Speaker 7: lawmakers about her what she witnessed the dealings Meta in 804 00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:05,560 Speaker 7: China back through her tenure in twenty seventeen. The interesting 805 00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:08,440 Speaker 7: thing about her prepared remarks, which we've gotten our hands 806 00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:10,839 Speaker 7: on here at Bloomberg, is that she's going to make 807 00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:14,920 Speaker 7: the case that Meta's discussions with China have actually helped 808 00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:18,560 Speaker 7: it in its AI ambitions in this global race arms 809 00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:20,440 Speaker 7: race that she's describing around AI. 810 00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:24,440 Speaker 2: What's interesting is Meta's response has been clear on all 811 00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:27,879 Speaker 2: of this, Riley, and for example, they've said that Mark 812 00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:30,520 Speaker 2: Zackerberg has been public about the company's past interest in 813 00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:34,040 Speaker 2: offering services in China, and details were widely reported beginning 814 00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:36,919 Speaker 2: over a decade ago. But the fact is this, says 815 00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:40,320 Speaker 2: Andy Stone, we do not operate our services in China today. 816 00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:44,400 Speaker 2: What will Meta's response be, particularly in this global environment 817 00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:45,799 Speaker 2: of US versus China. 818 00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:49,560 Speaker 7: Meta is holding firm that it does not offer services 819 00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:53,399 Speaker 7: like Facebook, Instagram and China. Sarah and Williams, however, will 820 00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:57,879 Speaker 7: be contending that it continues to make a great deal 821 00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:00,919 Speaker 7: of its revenue out of China. About eight billion last 822 00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:04,279 Speaker 7: year in advertising revenue came from China, and so she 823 00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:09,040 Speaker 7: is making the case that this is a present discussion. 824 00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:12,040 Speaker 7: While Meta calls this old news, Sarah and Williams is 825 00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:14,600 Speaker 7: making this about the here and now and about this 826 00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:17,279 Speaker 7: arms race and about the money that matter continues to make. 827 00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:20,040 Speaker 2: Well, we'll watch for that hearing later today. Riley Griffin, 828 00:41:20,200 --> 00:41:22,440 Speaker 2: thanks for bringing it to us. Now let's stick with 829 00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:25,680 Speaker 2: social media. Can't Look Away. It is a new film 830 00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:28,680 Speaker 2: by Bluemberg Originals, which followed a team of lawyers battling 831 00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:32,640 Speaker 2: tech giants on behalf of families. His children suffered great harm. 832 00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:35,000 Speaker 2: Link to social media, and the film is based on 833 00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:38,520 Speaker 2: the reporting by Our Burero's Varion Olivia Carvill, who joins us. 834 00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:42,800 Speaker 2: Now the reaction, of course, is to the legal battle 835 00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:46,279 Speaker 2: that is trying to hold big tech accountable. Is it 836 00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:48,040 Speaker 2: managing to in the courts right now? 837 00:41:48,560 --> 00:41:49,439 Speaker 8: We don't know yet. 838 00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:52,359 Speaker 13: There are positive signs that some of these cases are 839 00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:55,399 Speaker 13: breaking through and that we might see at least one 840 00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:59,319 Speaker 13: lawsuit pus section two thirty of the Communications Decency Act, 841 00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:02,799 Speaker 13: which is really been that immunity blanket for big tech 842 00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:06,320 Speaker 13: over the past two decades, preventing them from being held 843 00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:09,680 Speaker 13: liable for user harms like what are portrayed in the film, 844 00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:13,399 Speaker 13: And as it currently stands, it looks like we are 845 00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:15,240 Speaker 13: going to see one of these cases go to trial 846 00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:17,360 Speaker 13: later this year. So it's kind of all eyes on 847 00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:18,680 Speaker 13: the justice system right now. 848 00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:22,960 Speaker 3: Olivia Peace, could you explain what the process of making 849 00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:25,440 Speaker 3: the film was like? And it's a different medium, but 850 00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:28,120 Speaker 3: I guess the reporting that went into it from you. 851 00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:30,720 Speaker 13: Yeah, it's been a two and a half year journey 852 00:42:30,760 --> 00:42:34,440 Speaker 13: to get here. I first approached Christen Powers, Bloomberg's deputy 853 00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:36,719 Speaker 13: head of media, asking if it might be possible to 854 00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:40,040 Speaker 13: shadow this law firm, and we really dove in without 855 00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:42,799 Speaker 13: knowing where these cases were going to go or if 856 00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:45,160 Speaker 13: any of them would eventually reach trial. 857 00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:46,560 Speaker 2: So it was a leap of. 858 00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:50,560 Speaker 13: Faith by Bloomberg and the production team at DCTV, particularly 859 00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:54,839 Speaker 13: directors Met O'Neil and Perry Peltz. Documentary is a completely 860 00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:57,360 Speaker 13: different medium to print, which is what I'm used to. 861 00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:00,239 Speaker 13: It's like a jigsaw puzzle trying to pull together all 862 00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:03,440 Speaker 13: these different scenes, and you really need to have visual 863 00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:07,239 Speaker 13: segues between talking heads on camera, and that's something that 864 00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:09,600 Speaker 13: you know, It's been a huge learning process for me 865 00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:12,800 Speaker 13: trying to understand what it takes to bring a documentary 866 00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:15,520 Speaker 13: to the screens. And I also think that there needs 867 00:43:15,560 --> 00:43:18,920 Speaker 13: to be a broader message in the film and for 868 00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:21,839 Speaker 13: us with Can't Look Away, that is really the fight 869 00:43:21,920 --> 00:43:25,080 Speaker 13: for corporate accountability. Can't look Away is about, you know 870 00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:28,160 Speaker 13: exactly what that title implies, That there's a generation of 871 00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:31,200 Speaker 13: kids who are glued to their screens and quite literally 872 00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:34,560 Speaker 13: can't look away, and the lawyers and families fighting to 873 00:43:34,600 --> 00:43:36,799 Speaker 13: hold those companies accountable for this situation. 874 00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:41,680 Speaker 2: Protections continue to come though Matter has brought them to Instagram, 875 00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:44,480 Speaker 2: bringing them also to Facebook. Some of their other products. 876 00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:47,640 Speaker 2: You've had Roblock CEO joining us recently with more parental controls. 877 00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:51,240 Speaker 2: I'm interested as to the visuals that Mark Zuckerberg himself 878 00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:53,440 Speaker 2: had to be confronted with. The pictures of the children 879 00:43:53,600 --> 00:43:57,560 Speaker 2: have had tragic ends to consumption of social media. They're 880 00:43:57,600 --> 00:43:59,319 Speaker 2: getting it, do you think or not? 881 00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:00,200 Speaker 16: Well? 882 00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:03,200 Speaker 13: I think the whole conversation around social media has shifted 883 00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:05,720 Speaker 13: in recent years. We've seen it move from a question 884 00:44:05,880 --> 00:44:08,480 Speaker 13: of can these platforms how mental health? 885 00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:10,080 Speaker 2: Are they really good for our kids? 886 00:44:10,520 --> 00:44:13,720 Speaker 13: And it's moved towards this is a full blown public 887 00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:16,680 Speaker 13: health crisis for our children. And that's what I'm hearing 888 00:44:16,719 --> 00:44:19,960 Speaker 13: now from the experts because we've seen books like Jonathan 889 00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:23,759 Speaker 13: Height's Anxious Generations, Sarah wyn Williams Careless People, which we're 890 00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:27,920 Speaker 13: just talking about on this show Netflix series like Adolescents, 891 00:44:28,280 --> 00:44:32,360 Speaker 13: really pushing the cultural conversation towards is this a good 892 00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:33,960 Speaker 13: situation for our children? 893 00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:35,640 Speaker 2: Is this what we want them to be doing? 894 00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:38,600 Speaker 13: And let's just think about the facts. Ninety five percent 895 00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:41,799 Speaker 13: of kids use social media, more than a third are 896 00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:45,600 Speaker 13: showing signs of addiction. And this film was chronicling the 897 00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:48,799 Speaker 13: very extreme harms that some of those kids have experienced 898 00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:49,760 Speaker 13: in the digital world. 899 00:44:50,600 --> 00:44:53,640 Speaker 2: It's been such a long journey of reporting and now 900 00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:57,640 Speaker 2: in to the big theaters as well. Olivia Carvill, we 901 00:44:57,719 --> 00:44:59,360 Speaker 2: thank you so much. That does it for this addition 902 00:44:59,400 --> 00:45:02,600 Speaker 2: of let's just check in on these markets for a moment. 903 00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:03,040 Speaker 1: Ed. 904 00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:06,880 Speaker 2: We're currently seeing a whitsawing on the day, Magnificent sevens 905 00:45:06,880 --> 00:45:09,160 Speaker 2: staying higher to the tune of one point three percent, 906 00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:11,120 Speaker 2: but who knows how we'll close today and then as 907 00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:13,680 Speaker 2: that one hundred rebounding from yesterday's sellof This is Bloomberg 908 00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:14,239 Speaker 2: Technology