Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
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Speaker 1: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States
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Speaker 1: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you
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Speaker 1: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will
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Speaker 1: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
Speaker 1: Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,
Speaker 1: border and families will be protected.
Speaker 2: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security. Stock market.
Speaker 2: The futures market ended relatively flat on the S and
Speaker 2: P How much longer before the market begins to go
Speaker 2: back up. This is why everybody wants to know how
Speaker 2: much how much more pay do people have to suffer?
Speaker 3: I think we have about six more weeks so the
Speaker 3: lumber prices are finally settling. Inflation is going to be
Speaker 3: bad for a little bit longer, but it's not going
Speaker 3: to be as bad as everyone predicted it will be.
Speaker 3: You can market challenge. You have about six more weeks
Speaker 3: of pain to go through. I think it's going to
Speaker 3: be very clear very soon that we're going to have
Speaker 3: a change in terms of political structure that will bring
Speaker 3: some consistency in the market because people hate to invest
Speaker 3: whether there's uncertainty. So when you have a clear plan,
Speaker 3: clear landscape of what's going to happen, it's a lot
Speaker 3: easier to invest. There are a couple of markets that
Speaker 3: you can invest in and still do incredibly will in.
Speaker 3: But overall, the next six weeks will be tough, and
Speaker 3: then after that we'll start to smooth out and then
Speaker 3: be okay. So I know some people like, hey, should
Speaker 3: I take all of my money out? No, you still
Speaker 3: want to invest for the long term. But for those
Speaker 3: of you that are trading as well, ease up a
Speaker 3: little bit on the downside because we aren't going to
Speaker 3: have these incredible moves to the downside as much, and
Speaker 3: then once you see has fun, start to pouring a
Speaker 3: little bit more money. We'll be fine. But give us
Speaker 3: six more weeks, eight tops, and then we'll start to
Speaker 3: balance out. I believe by the end of the year
Speaker 3: we should only be up maybe six to maybe nine
Speaker 3: percent on a year in terms of the S and
Speaker 3: P five hundred, so we'll be flat. But for traders
Speaker 3: is great because the volatility is absolutely has been fantastic,
Speaker 3: like this first quarter or so. So yeah, give us
Speaker 3: six weeks and we'll be all right.
Speaker 4: Jan Hatzeus, she's a Goldman Sachs chief economist. You predicted
Speaker 4: that there's a fifteen percent chance of recession within the
Speaker 4: next twelve months, thirty five percent chance over the next
Speaker 4: two years, and so that's good news.
Speaker 3: The chief.
Speaker 4: He's a Goldman sax chief economists to be at a
Speaker 4: predition scale. So I think last week a couple of
Speaker 4: firms came out and said that we're headed towards the recession,
Speaker 4: but they NAVI gave a percentage with it. And so
Speaker 4: based on this calculations, based on obviously all of the
Speaker 4: factors that would lead to recession, they said there's a
Speaker 4: fifteen percent chance in the next twelve months and for
Speaker 4: the next two years, thirty five percent chance of a recession.
Speaker 3: So if Biden gets knocked out office and we get
Speaker 3: a Republican president with Jack lewell go back to the
Speaker 3: nineteen fifties and do every election since and see the
Speaker 3: probability of being in a recession under a Republican leader
Speaker 3: versus Democratic leader. Now, some Republicans argue Democrats caused the
Speaker 3: mess and we get to blame. That will be the
Speaker 3: case this time. But during a Republican presidency, we tend
Speaker 3: to have more recessions. So and those are like I
Speaker 3: know people look at the R words like a bad word,
Speaker 3: those are times when you can start to build generational wealth.
Speaker 3: So me personally, and when happened, I was like, our
Speaker 3: vow to never miss out on these opportunities ever again.
Speaker 3: And that's when I began to like really really hone
Speaker 3: in and master my craft around this market. When we
Speaker 3: hit the recession, everyone listening, I'm begging you to do
Speaker 3: the same, Like learn this market like the back of
Speaker 3: your hand, and you won't be able to make some
Speaker 3: incredible money. And the crazy part I didn't know how
Speaker 3: to trade then, which is a gift in the curse.
Speaker 3: But if you can invest the long term and trade
Speaker 3: in a recession. You know, for those of you who
Speaker 3: were at Apollo, you saw Troy put put up the billboard.
Speaker 3: Those are some big numbers you can hit for sure
Speaker 3: in a recession. So enjoy it. Please enjoy it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, new billboards do come.
Speaker 5: What I'm realizing too, is that a lot of these,
Speaker 5: a lot of these projections are actually guesses because if
Speaker 5: you look at the last two recessions, nobody predicted that.
Speaker 5: Nobody predicted it. You predicted coronavirus.
Speaker 3: I predicted a recession in twenty twenty, for sure. In
Speaker 3: twenty eighteen, I did.
Speaker 5: Well, why did you predict it? Because the recession was
Speaker 5: for a global pandemic. There was a mathematical calculation.
Speaker 3: Like I know people make jokes about crystal ball, but
Speaker 3: like when I went and did the mathematical calculations on
Speaker 3: when we were hit for those for the women who
Speaker 3: were trading with me in twenty eighteen, like I said, Hey,
Speaker 3: but twenty twenty and chatter if you were there, like
Speaker 3: I said, it was gonna.
Speaker 5: Hit for sure. What what mathematical equation.
Speaker 3: Are you used?
Speaker 5: I can't get that your theory huh.
Speaker 4: I said, we could have based it on your theory, right,
Speaker 4: we said every every eight years or twelve years. Right,
Speaker 4: we've been on an up trend, right, so at some
Speaker 4: point it's gonna be a pullback and somebody's gonna be
Speaker 4: a catastrophic.
Speaker 2: Based on just your Yeah.
Speaker 4: I mean, that's just that's just theoretical, right, Yeah, that's
Speaker 4: just that's just.
Speaker 5: Like you look at leadership though, that's yeah, that just
Speaker 5: happens over the court of time, That's what I'm saying.
Speaker 5: But I'm saying, nobody predicted.
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Speaker 5: Thrownavirus?
Speaker 3: No that well one person I forgot her name, Oh
Speaker 3: my god. If you go to Tim Paris's podcast, she
Speaker 3: actually did predict it in twenty eighteen.
Speaker 4: Well it was in a book.
Speaker 6: What it is?
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, and it's like what we'll call it to
Speaker 5: what was it. Bill Gates, he gave a ted.
Speaker 4: Talk and that was that was scary.
Speaker 5: He gave a ted talk that.
Speaker 3: It's easy to predict something that.
Speaker 4: Allegen allegedly allegedly.
Speaker 5: All right, China, China, do any China stocks excite you?
Speaker 3: I actually like Ali Baba. I mean I may need
Speaker 3: it to.
Speaker 4: I'm happy you said that.
Speaker 3: Maybe if it drops another twenty bucks and listen, Mike
Speaker 3: clipped us up, nikkiy clipped us up for a five
Speaker 3: year old. So if you hold any lesson, it's not
Speaker 3: going to work well. I like Ali Baba. I want
Speaker 3: to like. Tencent is not there yet. There are a
Speaker 3: couple of the stocks there that have potential, but Ali
Speaker 3: Baba is the only one right now that I'm excited about.
Speaker 3: And if it drops like twenty dollars, a lord on
Speaker 3: what it is right now?
Speaker 4: I'm with you on Ali Baba. I want to know
Speaker 4: your thoughts though, Charlie, Charlie Munger. Obviously last week, if
Speaker 4: anybody wasn't familiar with Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, he
Speaker 4: sold half his state in Ali Baba over three hundred
Speaker 4: thousand years. Did they have any impact on your feelings
Speaker 4: on Ali Babo as like, all right, Charlie, don't We
Speaker 4: don't have to agree with I mean, one of the
Speaker 4: greatest investors, but we don't always have to go with
Speaker 4: what they what they're doing, right, I will say, follow
Speaker 4: what the wealthy people are doing.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, there's certain things he may know geopolitically. And if
Speaker 3: we hit a recession, man Ali Babica fall to like
Speaker 3: an all time record low for a company with that
Speaker 3: kind of market cap, I wouldn't buy it right now.
Speaker 3: It's not a good price. But if it did fall
Speaker 3: twenty bucks lower, thirty bucks lower, I'd be happy. This
Speaker 3: definitely has to be a five year hold because geopolitically
Speaker 3: we cannot change a lot of the things that are
Speaker 3: happening there. But that's the one stock in China that
Speaker 3: I'm like, if it falls to a certain price, I mean,
Speaker 3: related to grab it, And I'll say this, I wouldn't
Speaker 3: put it in a primary account. Number two. I would
Speaker 3: probably create a separate account so for my investors and traders,
Speaker 3: Like if you have a long term account, a swing account,
Speaker 3: let's say you have like a speculation account that you
Speaker 3: don't look at every day, put it in that account.
Speaker 3: So because if you draw down twenty percent. You don't
Speaker 3: want it to bleed your main portfolio. But if you
Speaker 3: just talk it away for maybe two or three years,
Speaker 3: you may look up one day and you may be
Speaker 3: up sixty eighty percent and be happy with that with
Speaker 3: the game. But I wouldn't put it like my primary
Speaker 3: for it all.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like Ali Baba for a couple of reasons.
Speaker 4: When I start looking at it's comparison to that in Amazon.
Speaker 4: Obviously we know what AWS is for Amazon, but Ali Baba,
Speaker 4: you know, they control large percentage of the cloud service
Speaker 4: in China as well, and so when they're looking at
Speaker 4: percentages wise of what you know the cloud experision is
Speaker 4: going to look like in mainland China, they're talking about
Speaker 4: sixty percent growth by twenty twenty seven, and so if
Speaker 4: they own I think right now they control thirty percent
Speaker 4: of the cloud service on the mainland China, and so
Speaker 4: if they control that large of a percentage and there's
Speaker 4: potential growth there, it makes sense. I like it in
Speaker 4: that sense. They have almost one point three billion users
Speaker 4: on their platform, which which is you know, that's that's
Speaker 4: that's a large that's a large percentage of the world. Really,
Speaker 4: So those two reasons like it. I'll side of it
Speaker 4: being China, and obviously I've learned my lesson with you know,
Speaker 4: dealing with some Chinese stocks.
Speaker 3: I like those two factors, yah, because the geopolitical risk
Speaker 3: is the only thing that terrifies me. So for my
Speaker 3: investors and traders, like, the geopolitical stuff is worse than
Speaker 3: like a market maker deciding to like flood the market
Speaker 3: on the short side, or even like hedge funds deciding
Speaker 3: to shorten. So you're probably gonna have to hold it
Speaker 3: through this most recent recession, and then if we get
Speaker 3: another one in twenty four into twenty four early twenty five,
Speaker 3: you don't have to hold through. But if you hold
Speaker 3: it into twenty seven twenty eight, you can have a
Speaker 3: nice home run. So, but investing as considerable risks. This
Speaker 3: is not a crystal ball guarantee. I'm just telling you
Speaker 3: you're gonna have to hold it for at least five
Speaker 3: ideally ten. But yeah, if you're looking for a dark horse,
Speaker 3: Ali Baba is the one. I like.
Speaker 5: My graduates from my school being forced bad drop drop, Mike,
Speaker 5: drop drop. Did you.
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