WEBVTT - NBA Futures Outlook (Ep. 157) 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:15.400 It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. 0:00:16.200 --> 0:00:18.680 Welcome in everybody to betting pros and is v Joey Pa, 0:00:18.840 --> 0:00:21.960 Joe Pisapia with me today? Is the wonderful, the one, 0:00:22.000 --> 0:00:24.520 the only, Mike Randall, and it's all about the NBA. 0:00:25.120 --> 0:00:25.560 That's right. 0:00:25.600 --> 0:00:29.120 The All Star Break is officially over. And thank goodness too, 0:00:29.240 --> 0:00:31.720 that dunk contest finally ended. If I had to watch 0:00:31.720 --> 0:00:34.120 one more dunk missed, I don't know what I would 0:00:34.120 --> 0:00:36.720 do with myself. But it's time to look ahead to 0:00:36.800 --> 0:00:39.480 the future. That's right, a little NBA futures. We're gonna 0:00:39.479 --> 0:00:43.720 look at the Western and Eastern Conference potential winners, maybe 0:00:43.760 --> 0:00:46.160 a little stab at some finals futures. 0:00:46.200 --> 0:00:47.519 Also, I'll look. 0:00:47.360 --> 0:00:50.840 At some awards, Who's most improved, who's the MVP. There's 0:00:50.920 --> 0:00:53.680 nobody better to talk about that within our own betting 0:00:53.720 --> 0:00:56.120 pros analyst Mike Randall, who could follow on the Twitter 0:00:56.160 --> 0:00:59.200 machine at Randall rant. Mike, it's good to talk to you, 0:00:59.280 --> 0:01:00.880 my friend. It's good to see you. And look at 0:01:00.960 --> 0:01:02.760 us doing a little NBA today. 0:01:03.400 --> 0:01:06.720 Joe, weren't we just at Flex drafts? Now we're doing NBA. 0:01:06.920 --> 0:01:09.400 Time just goes on it's the greatest force in the world. 0:01:09.440 --> 0:01:11.840 Time goes on. We're here with the NBA, and thank 0:01:11.880 --> 0:01:14.080 goodness we had games on Thursday. But we got to 0:01:14.120 --> 0:01:15.959 get over that dunk contest. I mean, I grew up 0:01:16.000 --> 0:01:18.400 with Dominique Wilkins and Michael Jordan and then we went 0:01:18.480 --> 0:01:20.880 to Spud Webb and Kobe What was that. 0:01:20.959 --> 0:01:25.039 About, geez my Kingdom for Kenny sky Walker. Yes, I mean, 0:01:25.080 --> 0:01:27.840 that's that's where we're at right now. It was it 0:01:27.920 --> 0:01:30.640 was the build up to the constantly missing dunks where 0:01:30.680 --> 0:01:32.880 I just kind of say, no, matter what they did 0:01:33.000 --> 0:01:35.120 at the end of it, Mike, it was gonna be 0:01:35.120 --> 0:01:37.839 anti climactic. And you know what, good on Dwayne Wade 0:01:38.400 --> 0:01:40.720 and I was a Kenny Smith who basically called it 0:01:40.760 --> 0:01:42.800 what it was. So I'm very proud of those guys 0:01:42.800 --> 0:01:43.560 who kept it real. 0:01:43.840 --> 0:01:44.240 For sure. 0:01:44.360 --> 0:01:47.680 The three point competition was good. All Star Game is 0:01:47.720 --> 0:01:50.680 always All Star Game. It's you know, all shooting, no defense. 0:01:50.680 --> 0:01:52.800 That's what we expect of the All Star Game. That's fine, 0:01:53.000 --> 0:01:55.280 But you know, the NBA season right now, obviously, you 0:01:55.280 --> 0:01:58.280 know we're starting to get to that stretch run. You know, 0:01:58.320 --> 0:01:59.880 this is the time of year two where you've seen 0:02:00.000 --> 0:02:02.640 g who're resting maybe rest a little less. And that 0:02:02.800 --> 0:02:04.600 is always the difficult thing with the NBA is. 0:02:04.600 --> 0:02:05.320 Can you stay healthy? 0:02:05.320 --> 0:02:07.800 Can you get these guys on the court that you want? 0:02:07.920 --> 0:02:10.359 And I want to start here at the Eastern Conference. 0:02:10.440 --> 0:02:12.520 Let's start here with some of your best bets. And obviously, 0:02:12.800 --> 0:02:14.400 as we're going through some of these, I want our 0:02:14.440 --> 0:02:17.040 mind everybody. We have all the consensus lines over at 0:02:17.040 --> 0:02:19.040 bettingpros dot com. So if you go to betting pros 0:02:19.080 --> 0:02:21.480 dot com, you can see the consensus for all the 0:02:21.520 --> 0:02:23.800 things we're going to talk about and all the places 0:02:23.800 --> 0:02:26.600 where you can find the best odds, whether it be 0:02:26.600 --> 0:02:29.280 bet MGM or another book, you can go and you 0:02:29.280 --> 0:02:31.600 can go ahead and place your wagers wherever you want to. 0:02:31.919 --> 0:02:33.800 And what's great too, is even if you're a daily 0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:35.919 NBA better too, you can always check out the prop 0:02:35.919 --> 0:02:37.680 bet cheat sheet that we have for NBA, just like 0:02:37.680 --> 0:02:40.120 we had for NFL, which gives you all of the 0:02:40.160 --> 0:02:44.480 best consensus props, the variations to between our projections and 0:02:44.560 --> 0:02:46.560 the prop numbers, and where you can bet them. So 0:02:46.639 --> 0:02:49.840 it literally is the answers to the test. It's an 0:02:49.840 --> 0:02:52.360 amazing thing that gets produced every single day here. 0:02:52.520 --> 0:02:53.800 So you have no excuse to fail. 0:02:53.840 --> 0:02:55.080 At the end of the day, you've got to go 0:02:55.200 --> 0:02:57.120 check out the prop bet cheat sheet at Bettingpros dot 0:02:57.160 --> 0:03:00.880 com for NBA. But going back to the Eastern right now, 0:03:01.080 --> 0:03:03.399 how do you see this board right now, Mike, kind 0:03:03.400 --> 0:03:05.639 of unfolding itself, and where do you want to put 0:03:05.639 --> 0:03:06.080 your money? 0:03:06.480 --> 0:03:08.680 I love the Eastern Conference, Joe, because there are so 0:03:08.840 --> 0:03:11.240 many teams that are bunched together that could win this 0:03:11.400 --> 0:03:14.120 There is really not one dominant team. Bucks has been great. 0:03:14.440 --> 0:03:16.280 I love the Bucks near and dear to my heart. 0:03:16.480 --> 0:03:18.960 But everyone else now has kind of caught up. And 0:03:19.000 --> 0:03:21.040 what's interesting is, and I'll get to my long shot 0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:23.880 in a minute, it's about styles. The best bet for 0:03:23.919 --> 0:03:26.280 me at this point is Miami. They're around plus five 0:03:26.280 --> 0:03:29.360 point fifty plus six hundred betting Pros consensus. They have 0:03:29.520 --> 0:03:32.920 perfect balance. They are six overall in defensive rating this year, 0:03:33.160 --> 0:03:35.560 eighth in offensive rating. And if you look at the 0:03:35.560 --> 0:03:38.000 structure of the team, you have Lowry at point guard. 0:03:38.200 --> 0:03:40.160 You have Jimmy Buckets who can get a big basket. 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:42.520 Bam has come back now from the injury, so they've 0:03:42.560 --> 0:03:45.280 had other players step up throughout the season. When Bam 0:03:45.360 --> 0:03:47.400 was not there. Even Max Strus coming off the bench 0:03:47.560 --> 0:03:50.120 can hit some threes. Tyler Hero, who is the leader 0:03:50.200 --> 0:03:52.000 right now for six Man of the Year. I mean, 0:03:52.040 --> 0:03:54.280 you're talking about a player who two seasons ago in 0:03:54.320 --> 0:03:58.120 the playoffs was extremely, extremely hot. They have a style, 0:03:58.200 --> 0:03:59.920 they are not afraid of anyone. They have a great 0:04:00.080 --> 0:04:03.360 coach and Eric Spolstra. They would go there and battle. 0:04:03.440 --> 0:04:05.320 And what I like about them is if they get 0:04:05.320 --> 0:04:07.960 that one seed. Getting the one seed in the Eastern 0:04:07.960 --> 0:04:10.400 Conference is going to be huge because that two to 0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:13.200 three matchup is going to be massive. So what you 0:04:13.240 --> 0:04:15.280 would like to do is see like a Chicago and 0:04:15.320 --> 0:04:17.840 a Milwaukee battle it out and then just see them 0:04:17.839 --> 0:04:20.760 in the finals. I'm not into the nets. I don't 0:04:20.800 --> 0:04:22.919 like the Sixers trying to piece it together with the 0:04:22.960 --> 0:04:26.240 process with Harden and beat although Mbats have a phenomenal year. 0:04:26.560 --> 0:04:29.400 My favorite bet in the East is Miami around plus 0:04:29.480 --> 0:04:32.159 five to fifty plus six hundred. I think they have 0:04:32.279 --> 0:04:34.719 the style, they have the team, they have the balance, 0:04:34.880 --> 0:04:37.160 and they have the bench to step up and win 0:04:37.200 --> 0:04:38.080 the Eastern Conference. 0:04:38.640 --> 0:04:40.440 And the bench is such a huge component too at 0:04:40.440 --> 0:04:42.520 this time of the year two because we're getting up 0:04:42.560 --> 0:04:45.039 there in games. So if guys, do you know, miss 0:04:45.040 --> 0:04:47.520 some minutes or even miss some games, having that death 0:04:47.640 --> 0:04:50.640 goes a long way right now to winning that Eastern Conference. 0:04:50.680 --> 0:04:52.600 And I'm with you about the nets to one hundred 0:04:52.640 --> 0:04:54.480 percent agreement there. I do not like what's going on. 0:04:54.600 --> 0:04:55.920 Let's talk go with a long shot in the East. 0:04:55.920 --> 0:04:58.279 So if that's your favorite bet, who is the team 0:04:58.400 --> 0:05:00.000 going to be a little bit further down the trophy 0:05:00.160 --> 0:05:01.440 might have a shot. 0:05:01.320 --> 0:05:04.480 Shout out to Cleveland. And what's interesting here is no 0:05:04.520 --> 0:05:07.160 one is going to buy Cleveland have plus twenty five 0:05:07.279 --> 0:05:11.000 hundred plus three thousand on betting pros consensus. Look at 0:05:11.040 --> 0:05:13.599 what they did at the trading deadline. They bring in 0:05:13.720 --> 0:05:18.120 Karris Lavert to complement Darius Garland. They have Jared Down, 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:20.479 they have Kevin Love. What they have here is very 0:05:20.480 --> 0:05:23.479 similar in college basketball. We all saw last year that 0:05:23.520 --> 0:05:27.760 the Houston Cougars made the Final Four with defense and rebounding, 0:05:27.839 --> 0:05:30.760 something that's different than what everyone else has. That's what 0:05:30.880 --> 0:05:34.000 Cleveland has. They have a throwback team with the seven footers. 0:05:34.080 --> 0:05:37.400 They have the probable rookie of the year and Evan Mobley. JB. 0:05:37.520 --> 0:05:40.320 Bickerstaff has done a tremendous job with this team. They 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:42.640 are young and they are naive coming into the All 0:05:42.680 --> 0:05:46.160 Star break four out of six all battling injuries here, 0:05:46.160 --> 0:05:48.279 they've won the last four to six throughout the season. 0:05:48.600 --> 0:05:52.240 Garland was injured, Rubio Sexton is gone. Lowry market and 0:05:52.240 --> 0:05:56.359 who should be back marketIn now makes Evan Mobley have 0:05:56.480 --> 0:05:58.560 the ability to sort of freelance a little more on 0:05:58.600 --> 0:06:01.120 the inside market. And had the repation with the Bulls 0:06:01.279 --> 0:06:03.800 as not being a defensive player. Now that he's with 0:06:03.880 --> 0:06:06.320 Cleveland and he's bumped down to the three, he's actually 0:06:06.400 --> 0:06:09.520 been great at getting in the lanes, making steals and deflections. 0:06:09.800 --> 0:06:12.360 Also keep in mind, Joe the Calves two and one 0:06:12.360 --> 0:06:15.360 against Milwaukee this year, two and zero against Miami, one 0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:18.720 and one against Chicago. They aren't sexy. No one really 0:06:18.800 --> 0:06:21.359 likes the Calves without Lebron on them. But they have 0:06:21.520 --> 0:06:23.880 the style, they have a unique way, and it would 0:06:23.880 --> 0:06:26.800 not surprise me if they had a magic ride here 0:06:27.000 --> 0:06:29.080 to the Eastern Conference. You're gonna give them to me 0:06:29.120 --> 0:06:31.640 at plus twenty five hundred. I have no problem with that. 0:06:31.920 --> 0:06:33.400 I like the Calves as my long shot. 0:06:34.480 --> 0:06:36.400 Calves is an interesting long shot, and look, you're not 0:06:36.440 --> 0:06:38.359 alone too. Have heard a lot of people over this 0:06:38.360 --> 0:06:40.600 past weekend talking up the Calves who and liking the 0:06:40.640 --> 0:06:42.760 moves that they've made here and the way that they're 0:06:42.760 --> 0:06:45.520 playing potentially, So if you like the heat, you have 0:06:45.640 --> 0:06:47.680 your long shot. We already said the Nets are a 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:49.320 bit of a trap. Is there anybody else who's towards 0:06:49.320 --> 0:06:50.560 the top of this board? I see the Nets a 0:06:50.560 --> 0:06:53.120 plus two seventy five on the betting pros consensus line. 0:06:53.120 --> 0:06:55.000 I see the seventy six or two A plus three fifty. 0:06:55.000 --> 0:06:57.440 Are they a trap? Yeah? I don't like the Nets 0:06:57.560 --> 0:06:59.680 or the Sixers, this whole thing with Kyrie, with the 0:06:59.760 --> 0:07:04.760 vat they had a fantastic matchup with Milwaukee. I remember 0:07:04.800 --> 0:07:08.159 going to that game seven last year. They're playing the Bucks. Yes, 0:07:08.240 --> 0:07:11.080 if Kevin durantz tow wasn't on the three point line, 0:07:11.120 --> 0:07:12.720 who knows. The Net's good to have won a title 0:07:12.800 --> 0:07:15.480 last year, but it seems very flimsy. The Nets don't 0:07:15.480 --> 0:07:17.680 play any defense. Now they're going to try to make 0:07:17.720 --> 0:07:20.120 a move forward, but they need a healthy Kyrie. I 0:07:20.160 --> 0:07:22.520 don't like them, and I don't like the Sixers, and 0:07:22.680 --> 0:07:25.600 B could be your MVP, but I don't know if 0:07:25.640 --> 0:07:28.720 the matchup of Harden with MBID is going to win 0:07:28.760 --> 0:07:31.920 a title. Harden dominates the ball, He's almost gonna have 0:07:32.000 --> 0:07:34.960 to subject himself to be a facilitator more. And I 0:07:35.200 --> 0:07:37.920 just don't think in this situation with two alpha dogs, 0:07:37.960 --> 0:07:40.000 the way they're set up, that's gonna work for me. 0:07:40.080 --> 0:07:42.800 I understand people like it. They like the big names 0:07:43.000 --> 0:07:45.400 stars winning the NBA more than any other league. I 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:47.640 get that. I do not like the sixers of plus 0:07:47.680 --> 0:07:49.120 three fifty. I don't want to deal with that. I 0:07:49.120 --> 0:07:51.640 don't see why you would not take the heat who've 0:07:51.680 --> 0:07:55.680 actually had a championship pedigree falling short with a solid team, 0:07:55.720 --> 0:07:58.280 a much better all around team, a much deeper team 0:07:58.360 --> 0:08:00.440 with a great coach. Why would you take six ers 0:08:00.480 --> 0:08:01.320 over them? I don't see it. 0:08:02.240 --> 0:08:04.280 All right, Let's head over to the Western Conference, where 0:08:04.320 --> 0:08:06.880 right now the consensus betting pros line has the Warriors 0:08:06.880 --> 0:08:09.880 at plus one seventy five. Some other books are DraftKings 0:08:09.920 --> 0:08:10.680 as at plus. 0:08:10.480 --> 0:08:11.200 One to eighty five. 0:08:11.280 --> 0:08:13.440 You've got them a little variance there the Suns at 0:08:13.440 --> 0:08:15.960 plus one eighty right behind them, kind of neck and neck, 0:08:16.080 --> 0:08:17.760 and there's a big drop off. Then it goes right 0:08:17.760 --> 0:08:19.640 to the Jazz at plus seven hundred. Now, the Jazz 0:08:19.640 --> 0:08:22.560 were team last year, you know, played very good defense, 0:08:22.760 --> 0:08:25.440 really played well together. But you could see there's basically 0:08:25.640 --> 0:08:27.440 the Warriors and the Suns and then the drop off. 0:08:27.480 --> 0:08:29.600 So how do you see the Western Conference board shaking out? 0:08:29.640 --> 0:08:32.319 Mike? What I actually love with the Western Conference. I 0:08:32.360 --> 0:08:35.160 don't love what happened, but I like the betting advantage 0:08:35.200 --> 0:08:37.160 is I'm going to see these Suns drop now that 0:08:37.240 --> 0:08:39.199 Chris Paul is going to be out six to eight weeks, 0:08:39.200 --> 0:08:41.480 which is Joe pretty much the rest of the regular 0:08:41.480 --> 0:08:44.079 season because it's seven weeks until the end there, it's 0:08:44.080 --> 0:08:47.360 not a totally balanced schedule. So I like the Sun's odds. 0:08:47.360 --> 0:08:48.960 I think they're going to drop. I think they're going 0:08:49.000 --> 0:08:50.440 to come back to the pack. I think they're about 0:08:50.440 --> 0:08:52.600 a five game lead over the Warriors right now, who 0:08:52.640 --> 0:08:54.839 are gonna get hot. But when Chris Paul comes back, 0:08:54.840 --> 0:08:57.360 and listen, he's thirty six years old, he's getting some 0:08:57.520 --> 0:08:59.880 valuable rest. It is the thumb on his shooting hand. 0:09:00.080 --> 0:09:02.120 But I think you're going to see the Suns develop 0:09:02.200 --> 0:09:03.960 here and their odds are going to drop. So I 0:09:04.000 --> 0:09:06.679 have no problem waiting on them and then getting them 0:09:06.720 --> 0:09:08.679 at that point. The team that I like the best 0:09:09.040 --> 0:09:12.440 are the Grizzlies. John Moran has taken his game to 0:09:12.480 --> 0:09:15.319 another level. I was saying on Twitter that you should 0:09:15.400 --> 0:09:18.160 take him over Zion Williamson. I think Morent was just 0:09:18.200 --> 0:09:21.160 a jump shot away from dominating this league, and that's 0:09:21.160 --> 0:09:23.440 what he's getting. He is going to be your most 0:09:23.440 --> 0:09:25.920 Improved Player, and the odds say that it's at minus 0:09:25.960 --> 0:09:28.800 five hundred right now. But he has a case for MVP. 0:09:29.240 --> 0:09:32.080 They are great inside with their bigs. They dominate on 0:09:32.120 --> 0:09:34.800 the boards. Desmond Bain also has a case to be 0:09:34.880 --> 0:09:38.440 most improved Player. They are a very sneaky team. Last 0:09:38.480 --> 0:09:40.800 year they're just squeaking in the playoffs. Now right now 0:09:40.800 --> 0:09:43.439 they're sitting in a fantastic spot towards the top of 0:09:43.480 --> 0:09:46.319 the Western Conference. So right now, betting pros consensus has 0:09:46.320 --> 0:09:50.160 the Grizzlies of plus twelve hundred. We've seen the Jazz before. 0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:52.920 I understand them. They're a great team. I don't see 0:09:52.920 --> 0:09:55.560 them making the finals. So the teams I like, Warriors 0:09:55.600 --> 0:09:57.439 are going to be the go ahead favorite. I don't 0:09:57.480 --> 0:10:00.000 like betting the favorite in any situation of a long 0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:02.360 sho got you go that, I'll take the Suns in 0:10:02.400 --> 0:10:04.640 a few weeks when their odds dip down. And I 0:10:04.720 --> 0:10:07.160 also like the Grizzlies with jam Morant because I believe 0:10:07.240 --> 0:10:10.200 he is good enough to carry this team right to 0:10:10.280 --> 0:10:12.920 the precipice of that Western Conference Finals. And now I 0:10:13.000 --> 0:10:15.319 just need one more series. I'll take my chances. 0:10:15.800 --> 0:10:17.160 I love it, you know, you and I see the 0:10:17.320 --> 0:10:19.120 same as like, if you're not getting good money there 0:10:19.200 --> 0:10:21.240 on the favorites, then you either stay away or you 0:10:21.320 --> 0:10:23.040 find something else you'd like to bet on. It's funny 0:10:23.040 --> 0:10:25.640 because I'm looking ahead now at the Championship odds and 0:10:25.679 --> 0:10:28.320 the Grizzlies are a plus twenty five hundred on the 0:10:28.360 --> 0:10:29.439 Betting pro consensus. 0:10:29.440 --> 0:10:30.599 So if you want to double. 0:10:30.400 --> 0:10:33.719 Down your Jama Rant narrative ear for MVP and them 0:10:33.760 --> 0:10:35.839 going to the Western Conference Finals, I mean, hey, that's 0:10:35.840 --> 0:10:37.800 an interesting long shot right there. The rest of this 0:10:37.840 --> 0:10:40.120 board looks like this. The Warriors are plus four twenty 0:10:40.120 --> 0:10:42.560 five on betting pros dot Com. Then you have the 0:10:42.559 --> 0:10:44.760 consensus line for the Suns at plus four fifty, and 0:10:44.760 --> 0:10:47.120 then it goes to the Jazz at sixteen hundred. They 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:50.080 are Grizzlies Nuggets. So that's the way somebody's Western teams 0:10:50.200 --> 0:10:52.360 shape up in order to win. So when you're looking 0:10:52.400 --> 0:10:55.280 at finals odds right now, who kind of jumps out 0:10:55.280 --> 0:10:57.559 to you at the different consensus potentially. 0:10:57.960 --> 0:11:00.920 Well, that it's gonna follow a What it's gonna come 0:11:00.960 --> 0:11:03.120 down to me, Joe, is the way they matched up. 0:11:03.160 --> 0:11:05.720 Like I said in the Eastern Conference, the nets are 0:11:05.720 --> 0:11:09.040 going to be in an enviable situation where they're gonna 0:11:09.040 --> 0:11:11.600 have to go through a ridiculous path to get to 0:11:11.640 --> 0:11:14.600 the finals. So I'm looking for teams that could match 0:11:14.679 --> 0:11:16.520 up and have a run. What are the ones that 0:11:16.559 --> 0:11:18.199 I think you have to look at? And he's kind 0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:20.920 of like my long shot for MVP. Also, let's not 0:11:21.040 --> 0:11:23.920 count out the Mavericks with Luka Doncics. The Mavericks since 0:11:24.040 --> 0:11:27.360 January first have had one of the best defenses in 0:11:27.400 --> 0:11:30.760 the NBA. They've been phenomenal and Doncic is making a 0:11:30.800 --> 0:11:34.720 push for the MVP candidacy over the last couple of weeks. 0:11:34.840 --> 0:11:37.000 So if you're looking for a long shot to make 0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:39.720 the finals, besides the ones that I mentioned, what you're 0:11:39.760 --> 0:11:42.040 looking for is a path. It is really similar to 0:11:42.080 --> 0:11:45.040 the NCAA tournament, where it's all about the matchups. Forget 0:11:45.080 --> 0:11:47.840 what has happened before. If you have a situation where 0:11:47.880 --> 0:11:50.079 things match up right and you see them going through, 0:11:50.400 --> 0:11:53.680 that's the team to grab. Doncic has everything you need 0:11:53.760 --> 0:11:56.600 as a great player. The team is playing defense, they're 0:11:56.640 --> 0:11:59.200 buying in and they have the ability even though they've 0:11:59.400 --> 0:12:02.360 lost some players. Is poorzingis gone, they've had injuries. Now 0:12:02.360 --> 0:12:04.960 it's a hardaway. That's a team who's a real deep 0:12:05.080 --> 0:12:06.760 long shot that I think you can look at. So 0:12:06.840 --> 0:12:09.120 outside of the ones that I mentioned going to the finals, 0:12:09.360 --> 0:12:11.320 I absolutely think if you want to throw a couple 0:12:11.440 --> 0:12:13.880 dollars down, take a look at the Mavericks, who are 0:12:13.960 --> 0:12:16.480 led by a star and have a style much like 0:12:16.559 --> 0:12:19.920 Cleveland that is against what is traditional now in the NBA. 0:12:20.720 --> 0:12:22.920 All Right, would you hedge it all and take you know, 0:12:23.240 --> 0:12:25.280 take it easy Golden State Warriors at the top of 0:12:25.320 --> 0:12:27.640 the board at plus four to ten or something like that, 0:12:27.720 --> 0:12:30.480 and then go ahead and take a little long shot 0:12:30.559 --> 0:12:33.360 later on as well, or would you just continue to 0:12:33.400 --> 0:12:35.160 stick with a long shot and play those odds. 0:12:35.400 --> 0:12:37.920 Yeah, I think Golden State is at the point where 0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:39.400 you got to get him now or you're not gonna 0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:39.920 get him at all. 0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:42.560 Clay Tom feels That's why I asked because they're in 0:12:42.600 --> 0:12:44.560 that four to one range basically right now. So that's 0:12:44.559 --> 0:12:46.720 why I was curious, would you lock that in and 0:12:46.760 --> 0:12:48.760 then start playing the board just to have a little 0:12:48.760 --> 0:12:50.680 bit of share, a little bit of comfort level, I guess, 0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:52.720 Or do you just say no, you know, let the 0:12:53.240 --> 0:12:55.960 let the favorite go and just keep playing a couple 0:12:56.000 --> 0:12:57.000 of the different long shots. 0:12:57.240 --> 0:12:59.840 If you want to grab the Warriors, take them now. 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:03.600 Their focus for most of the year has been defense 0:13:03.640 --> 0:13:07.520 in Curry. Now Thompson came back and they've struggled defensively. 0:13:07.800 --> 0:13:09.720 But I do Joe tend to go with the teams 0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:13.360 that have styles and have players in certain positions. Come on, 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:17.160 Looney inside tremendous, does his role rebounds. They have to 0:13:17.160 --> 0:13:19.800 get Wiggins going, but they're gonna get it right. That 0:13:19.920 --> 0:13:22.080 defense now is going to start coming back as the 0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:25.040 players get rested and get acclimated again with Thompson in 0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:27.600 the mix. So if you like the Warriors, I think 0:13:27.640 --> 0:13:29.880 you grab them now because in a few weeks, like 0:13:29.960 --> 0:13:32.600 I said, I'm gonna be on the Suns because there's 0:13:32.640 --> 0:13:35.000 gonna be recency bias. People are gonna forget about them. 0:13:35.160 --> 0:13:37.400 But what you're gonna watch is Devin Booker become more 0:13:37.400 --> 0:13:40.480 of a facilitator, McCall bridges become more of a scorer, 0:13:40.679 --> 0:13:42.600 and you're gonna see this team get better and then 0:13:42.600 --> 0:13:45.800 you're gonna put a fresh, refreshed and replenished Chris Paul 0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:47.760 back in there. So if you like the Warriors them, 0:13:47.800 --> 0:13:49.959 grab them now. I'd like to wait and grab the 0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:51.720 Suns in a little bit longer for a favorite. That 0:13:51.800 --> 0:13:53.160 is all right. 0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:54.959 So we've spoken about some of the big names in 0:13:55.000 --> 0:13:57.080 the NBA. Let's see who the biggest name is going 0:13:57.120 --> 0:13:59.360 to be this year for MVP. Top of the board 0:13:59.400 --> 0:14:01.600 right now is Joe Embiid and the consensus betting pros 0:14:01.640 --> 0:14:05.559 line plus one thirty. Then Nikola Jokich at plus three hundred, 0:14:05.760 --> 0:14:08.079 Jannis at plus three fifty, so those usual suspects, and 0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:11.800 then there's your boy John Morant right now plus one thousand, 0:14:11.880 --> 0:14:14.880 the consensus lying on him plus eighteen hundred. Over on 0:14:15.000 --> 0:14:16.920 Fandel too if you're really believe in if you want 0:14:16.920 --> 0:14:19.560 to get in there, also over on bet MGM two. 0:14:19.600 --> 0:14:21.040 We'll be waiting for those lines that come out. 0:14:21.240 --> 0:14:23.520 So tell me right now, how do you see the 0:14:23.600 --> 0:14:26.640 MVP board? How would you sprinkle at chips as it were. 0:14:27.320 --> 0:14:29.480 I'm a math guy. You know that. But there is 0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:33.200 a narrative there is in you it is there is 0:14:33.240 --> 0:14:37.080 a narrativele educator, yep, but there's a narrative base Joe 0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:39.560 to a lot of these awards, and I think there's 0:14:39.720 --> 0:14:43.240 a fatigue factor with a guy like you know, and 0:14:43.280 --> 0:14:45.880 I love Giannis. He's tremendous, but I think is he 0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:48.920 gonna get his third MVP in four years, he'd have 0:14:48.960 --> 0:14:51.400 to be head and shoulders above everyone else, which I 0:14:51.440 --> 0:14:55.440 don't see right now. Djokic has been tremendous. His statistics, 0:14:55.480 --> 0:14:58.360 his value to his team are outstanding. But the problem 0:14:58.400 --> 0:15:00.640 is the Nuggets right now are in six place. Last 0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:02.560 year when he won it, they were in third. They're 0:15:02.600 --> 0:15:05.200 missing a lot of guys, No Jamal Murray, They've had 0:15:05.240 --> 0:15:08.080 injuries across the board. Michael Porter, I get that, but 0:15:08.200 --> 0:15:11.040 I think Djoki, as much as he's fantastic, is not 0:15:11.160 --> 0:15:13.480 going to be able to have his team high enough 0:15:13.600 --> 0:15:16.720 in over to overcome that. Most people will go Embiid, 0:15:16.720 --> 0:15:18.720 and I have no trouble if it's Joel Embiid. He's 0:15:18.720 --> 0:15:21.720 been fantastic for the Sixers this year. He's carrying them. 0:15:21.880 --> 0:15:24.360 His player efficiency rating is over thirty one. It's off 0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:26.680 the charts. No problem with that. I just don't think 0:15:26.680 --> 0:15:28.680 there's enough value right now with the consensus of plus 0:15:28.720 --> 0:15:31.280 one thirty. So I really want odds of plus two 0:15:31.360 --> 0:15:33.680 hundred to better if I'm going to invest the two 0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:36.360 favorite bets, I like you mentioned them first. John Morant 0:15:36.360 --> 0:15:40.240 plus twelve hundred. I love the guy. He's a lot 0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:42.520 for the most improved player. Do I think that they're 0:15:42.560 --> 0:15:45.080 going to give it to Jaw in this situation so 0:15:45.160 --> 0:15:47.360 young in his career. I don't, but he really should 0:15:47.440 --> 0:15:50.000 get some votes. They lost to the Jazz last year. 0:15:50.040 --> 0:15:51.680 Four to one is the eighth seed. Right now, they're 0:15:51.720 --> 0:15:54.760 third in the West at forty one and nineteen. If 0:15:54.800 --> 0:15:57.920 you're going by who's deserving. To me, Jaw is absolutely 0:15:57.960 --> 0:16:00.600 top three, and don't sleep on those highlights. They matter. 0:16:00.880 --> 0:16:03.320 You've seen the dunks. You saw better dunks from ja 0:16:03.440 --> 0:16:06.040 Jo in the All Star Game than he actually started 0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:08.720 the dunk contest. So he's a guy who I love. 0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:10.400 I don't think he's gonna get it, but it's certainly 0:16:10.400 --> 0:16:12.560 worth a run because if he gets hot and some 0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:15.000 other players get injured, he could sneak in. My favorite 0:16:15.000 --> 0:16:16.920 bet to me is dong It's a plus three hundred. 0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:20.080 Here's my argument. If we ran the rest of the 0:16:20.120 --> 0:16:24.440 regular season thirty times, would Dongits win MVP at least twice? 0:16:24.480 --> 0:16:27.880 The answer is absolutely yes. Last ten games for Luca 0:16:28.120 --> 0:16:31.600 thirty five point four points, ten point three rebounds, nine 0:16:31.600 --> 0:16:34.360 point eight assists while shooting forty nine percent from the 0:16:34.400 --> 0:16:36.720 floor and over forty three percent from beyond the arc. 0:16:36.880 --> 0:16:40.440 What does that even mean? Now there's only twenty regular 0:16:40.520 --> 0:16:44.680 season games left. Here's my question. Philadelphia is thirty five 0:16:44.680 --> 0:16:47.760 and twenty three, Dallas is thirty five and twenty four, 0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:51.840 and Biid is twenty nine point six, eleven and four. 0:16:52.240 --> 0:16:56.200 Luca twenty seven, nine to nine. If he keeps going 0:16:56.520 --> 0:17:00.280 and Biid gets hurt Dallas gets hot, why not at 0:17:00.320 --> 0:17:03.320 plus three hundred. I'll take it, no problem, And you 0:17:03.360 --> 0:17:04.840 can always put a small unit on that. 0:17:05.400 --> 0:17:08.760 Of course, the same logic we're used here on the 0:17:08.760 --> 0:17:10.760 show and then the baseball season when Bryce Harper was 0:17:10.760 --> 0:17:12.960 thirty to one. Yes, it was a narrative to be 0:17:13.040 --> 0:17:16.280 had out there in the media. There was no clear winner. There, 0:17:16.359 --> 0:17:18.760 there was some fatigue with some other guys, but also 0:17:19.119 --> 0:17:21.760 most importantly, it's you don't have to go crazy on this. 0:17:21.840 --> 0:17:23.280 You just have to put a small number on it 0:17:23.320 --> 0:17:25.639