Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Ayush is an IT consultant in his early thirties from India.
Speaker 2: He lives in the US with his wife, and he
Speaker 2: told Bloomberg Sun called Fatial that they like it there.
Speaker 3: He and his wife have been in the US for
Speaker 3: very many years. They work for NIGHTI Company, and they
Speaker 3: love working for that company. The environment in that company
Speaker 3: is great.
Speaker 2: Last month, Ayusch was in India visiting family, but the
Speaker 2: day before he was due to return to the US,
Speaker 2: he woke up to a bunch of missed calls and
Speaker 2: frantic text messages from.
Speaker 3: Friends, friends saying where are you come back? Immediately? Did
Speaker 3: you see the news?
Speaker 2: Ayusch and his wife are recipients of one of the
Speaker 2: most coveted visas in the world, the H one B
Speaker 2: that allows highly skilled foreign nationals to live and work
Speaker 2: in the United States, and on that morning, the news
Speaker 2: was about a major overhaul of that program. The President
Speaker 2: is said to add a new one hundred thousand dollars
Speaker 2: fee for H ONEB visas in the latest one hundred
Speaker 2: thousand dollars, more than ten times what the visa had
Speaker 2: cost in the past. The news sent hundreds of thousands
Speaker 2: of H one B visa holders worldwide into a spiral.
Speaker 2: It wasn't clear who the new fee applied to or
Speaker 2: whether the current visa holders like Ayush would be charged
Speaker 2: upon re entering the US.
Speaker 3: If you know anyone who's on it one be in
Speaker 3: India right now, tell them to border the flat as
Speaker 3: soon as possible.
Speaker 1: I'm so mad and frustrated right now. If you're currently
Speaker 1: in US with the H one B visa working as
Speaker 1: a pointer, do not leave this country.
Speaker 2: President Donald Trump's announcement of the new fees was especially
Speaker 2: unsettling for the Indian community. That's because Indians make up
Speaker 2: roughly seventy percent of H one B holders. Ayush didn't
Speaker 2: want to speak to us on tape out of fear
Speaker 2: that it would jeopardize his career, but he's agreed to
Speaker 2: let Bloomberg sunkap Fartiel tell his story instead.
Speaker 3: He told me that he was in the line for
Speaker 3: immigration just a few minutes before the deadline kicked in
Speaker 3: on September twenty first. Thankfully, he is admitted in.
Speaker 2: For decades, the H ONEB program was a way to
Speaker 2: address labor shortages in the US. The vast majority of
Speaker 2: H ONEB holders work in the tech sector for the
Speaker 2: likes of Meta Inphasis and Google's parent company Alphabet.
Speaker 3: A lot of very famous people in the US have
Speaker 3: come to the US, and H one B Zylon Musk
Speaker 3: being one of them, the current Google CEO, Alphabet CEO
Speaker 3: Sunda Pichai.
Speaker 2: In the past and H one B visa would set
Speaker 2: companies back several thousand dollars for the application fee and
Speaker 2: subsequent costs. But as of September twenty first, any new
Speaker 2: applications for the work visa will carry a one hundred
Speaker 2: thousand dollars fee. Here's US Secretary of Commerce Howard Ludnik.
Speaker 2: So the whole.
Speaker 3: Idea is no more.
Speaker 2: All these big tech companies or other big companies train
Speaker 2: foreign workers.
Speaker 3: They have to pay the government one hundred thousand dollars,
Speaker 3: then they have to.
Speaker 1: Pay the employee.
Speaker 3: So it's it's just non economic.
Speaker 2: Suncope says. This was the last straw for our Yush
Speaker 2: and his family. He's now decided to leave the US
Speaker 2: and is looking for jobs in Europe.
Speaker 3: US is now not a place they want to be in.
Speaker 3: This is not the fear that they want to live
Speaker 3: with that will be kicked out or we won't be
Speaker 3: admitted in He says that I'm not really sure. You know,
Speaker 3: Trump is unpredictable. What if he wakes up tomorrow morning
Speaker 3: with a cup of coffee, changes the rules and says, okay,
Speaker 3: this rule applies to even existing H onebb's a holders.
Speaker 3: I just do not want to live with that stress.
Speaker 3: It's okay. I will earn less money somewhere else, but
Speaker 3: at least I'll be happy.
Speaker 2: This is the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm wanha.
Speaker 2: Every week we take you inside some of the world's
Speaker 2: biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons, and
Speaker 2: businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today, on the
Speaker 2: show the one hundred thousand dollars Visa, what Trump's new
Speaker 2: visa fee means for Indian talent and could the US's
Speaker 2: loss be India's game. The H one B visa program
Speaker 2: was introduced in nineteen ninety to address specific labor shortages.
Speaker 2: It allows companies in the US to hire college educated
Speaker 2: foreign workers for specialized jobs for up to six years.
Speaker 2: Since H one B is a dual intent visa, an
Speaker 2: employer can sponsor the same worker for a green card,
Speaker 2: which grants them permanent residency even while the worker is
Speaker 2: still on the H one B Bloomberg sankalp Fartial says
Speaker 2: today more than sixty percent of H one B visas
Speaker 2: are used by the tech industry.
Speaker 3: The US companies like Google and Microsoft and Amazon are
Speaker 3: among the biggest users of H oneb's, but also Indian
Speaker 3: outsourcers or IT services companies like Tata Consultancy Services or
Speaker 3: Emphasis are big users. The way it works is that
Speaker 3: companies see a requirement for specialized let's say, in this case,
Speaker 3: engineering talent, and they don't seem to find them in
Speaker 3: the US, so employers make the applications. There's a lottery
Speaker 3: system every year, and once the lottery is taken out,
Speaker 3: whoever gets their name in gets to go to the US.
Speaker 2: About eighty five thousand new HEV visas are issued every year.
Speaker 2: Sixty five thousand of them bring in general talent from abroad.
Speaker 2: The remaining twenty thousand are reserved for non US citizens
Speaker 2: who received advanced degrees from American universities. Since twenty eleven,
Speaker 2: roughly seventy percent of the visas approved each year have
Speaker 2: gone to Indian born citizens. Sankop says, for a lot
Speaker 2: of educated middle class Indians going to the US has
Speaker 2: been the ultimate dream, the American dream.
Speaker 3: You know, like everybody else from my generation. I sat
Speaker 3: for an engineering exam. Thankfully I did not get thro.
Speaker 3: I would have made a terrible engineer. But common saying
Speaker 3: in India that if you throw a rock up in
Speaker 3: the air, it'd probably hit an engineer. We have so
Speaker 3: many engineers and engining colleges here, and engineering was and
Speaker 3: continues to be seen as a pathway to a better life,
Speaker 3: as a pathway to go to the US, as a
Speaker 3: means to get a green card or maybe settle in
Speaker 3: the US, essentially a better lifestyle and a good career.
Speaker 2: It also meant they learned far more than they would
Speaker 2: staying in India.
Speaker 3: If you look at the conversion rate of dollar to
Speaker 3: the rupee, Indians would send money home and they would
Speaker 3: make their savings and rupees, so effectively they're paid much more.
Speaker 3: Someone with a master's degree and who's been in the
Speaker 3: US on an H one B for about four years
Speaker 3: could make anywhere between one hundred and fifty thousand dollars
Speaker 3: to two hundred thousand dollars a year. The kind of
Speaker 3: money that someone with that experience and the would make
Speaker 3: would be in millions of rupees, but not as much
Speaker 3: as somebody like that would make in the US.
Speaker 2: But the program has come under criticism in recent years.
Speaker 3: Conservatives have criticized this program for taking away US jobs
Speaker 3: for cheap labor, including from India, undercutting US jobs.
Speaker 2: In its statement announcing changes to the H one B
Speaker 2: visa program, the White House said American workers were being
Speaker 2: replaced with lower paid foreign labor and called it a
Speaker 2: national security threat. The Trump administration also claimed some entry
Speaker 2: LEVELHEB visa holders make about a third less than full
Speaker 2: time traditional workers. That wasn't verified by Bloomberg, but a
Speaker 2: Bloomberg investigation published earlier this year did find that US
Speaker 2: banks and telecom companies used the visa program to hire
Speaker 2: lower paid workers. They were able to do this indirectly
Speaker 2: through staffing and outsourcing companies that have previously been able
Speaker 2: to capture about half of the new visas allocated each year.
Speaker 2: By introducing a high barrier to hiring foreign workers, the
Speaker 2: hope is that companies would train and hire Americans instead,
Speaker 2: but Sandhope says it's not year whether that will happen.
Speaker 3: Not everybody is undercutting jobs. There may be few who
Speaker 3: are undercutting American skilled workers, but the whole idea revolves
Speaker 3: around the fact that America has a dearth of STEM
Speaker 3: talent science, tech, engineering, and math, and Indians or Chinese
Speaker 3: seem to be more skilled on those aspects. This is
Speaker 3: a very conservative approach to say that these people are
Speaker 3: taking away American jobs, because when these people go to
Speaker 3: American companies, they're also creating more jobs. They're paying Social Security,
Speaker 3: they're paying taxes, so that's fueling the economy as well.
Speaker 3: The way to look at this is that this is
Speaker 3: essentially putting breaks on a moving car that was doing
Speaker 3: well for the US. And if you don't bring H
Speaker 3: one B workers to the US to work for companies,
Speaker 3: that means you're essentially raising the costs for American corporations
Speaker 3: as well, because these people go there specifically to work
Speaker 3: on the demand of American corporations. For Indian outsources, they
Speaker 3: send these people to client sites. They're important and maintaining
Speaker 3: client relationships, work for clients and sensitive projects.
Speaker 2: What potentially could be the ripple effects for Indian IT
Speaker 2: firms like Infosys and tatas some of the biggest who
Speaker 2: do use H one bs and as well as the
Speaker 2: next tier of companies right the software services firms.
Speaker 3: Software services companies in India are already struggling with muted growth.
Speaker 3: They also have a new challenge, journey AI. So this
Speaker 3: is another kick on the backside, if I can call
Speaker 3: it that, in terms of how they will whether the storm.
Speaker 3: They are considering sending fewer people. At the same time,
Speaker 3: employers could be willing to pay that one hundred thousand
Speaker 3: dollar fee. They really want skilled talent from India to
Speaker 3: go to the US. But those are the ones that
Speaker 3: are really, really smart, and those are the ones that
Speaker 3: employers are willing to pay for. So there'll be a
Speaker 3: certain reduction in the number of people that go to
Speaker 3: the US. Will h one be alone uppend the entire
Speaker 3: Indian IT industry, No, I don't believe it will.
Speaker 2: As the US raises barriers for foreign workers. Is the
Speaker 2: American dream out of reach for Indians? And can India
Speaker 2: or other countries capitalize on this opportunity to lure talent
Speaker 2: for tens of thousands of Indian workers. The dream of
Speaker 2: building a career in the United States may be slipping away,
Speaker 2: but sanjap Partial says new opportunities are opening up elsewhere.
Speaker 2: Could the policy also unintentionally in some ways benefit India
Speaker 2: by retaining more skilled workers here domestically instead of them
Speaker 2: going overseas.
Speaker 3: It's a theory, It's a good theory, but not likely.
Speaker 3: It all depends on whether India seizes the moment to
Speaker 3: bring out policies that could help retain talent, because one
Speaker 3: of the biggest reasons Indian talent went outside was more money.
Speaker 3: But all so stable policy, good working environment, the chance
Speaker 3: to work in a global company. If India is able
Speaker 3: to give its talent good product and services jobs, create
Speaker 3: a global work environment, maintain that healthy work life balance. Yes,
Speaker 3: we could retain some talent, but one could argue that
Speaker 3: good talent will always find its way to find the
Speaker 3: best job.
Speaker 2: I want to talk a little bit about the on
Speaker 2: the ground effect, you know, impact as well. I mean,
Speaker 2: the H one B program has been a part of
Speaker 2: this market success for a lot of Indians being able
Speaker 2: to work in the US. What does this mean for
Speaker 2: you know, those people and their kind of hopes and dreams.
Speaker 3: I've been speaking to some of the people who've gone
Speaker 3: to the US on each one BS, even some students.
Speaker 3: There is a sense of extreme nervousness. I think the
Speaker 3: constant flip flop on policy, which wasn't the case in
Speaker 3: the US earlier, is something that terrifies people and makes
Speaker 3: them extremely nervous. And so I think the whole idea
Speaker 3: that US is a stable place to work for foreigners
Speaker 3: or immigrants, that ideas just shattered.
Speaker 2: Some countries are already moving to capitalize on the chaos.
Speaker 2: After Trump announced the changes to the H and B program,
Speaker 2: the UK said Britain will make it easier for companies
Speaker 2: to bring in top talent.
Speaker 3: Canada, UK, Australia and Eastern Europe are emerging as new
Speaker 3: tech and outsourcing hubs, and even though salaries there could
Speaker 3: be lower than in the Silicon Valley or the US
Speaker 3: in general, these new hubs will be able to draw
Speaker 3: Indian talent because of good working conditions and competitive pay packages.
Speaker 2: Meanwhile, Germany's ambassador to India released a video message encouraging
Speaker 2: skilled Indian professionals to consider Germany as their next destination.
Speaker 1: Highly skilled Indians are welcoming Germany. Our migration policy works
Speaker 1: a bit like a German car. It's reliable, it is modern,
Speaker 1: it is predictable, it will go in a straight line.
Speaker 2: And while this may look like a golden opportunity to
Speaker 2: attract foreign talent, Sankop says one country could end up
Speaker 2: missing out India itself. The country is grappling with rising
Speaker 2: use unemployment and an underemployment crisis.
Speaker 3: We have reported instance of college workers sitting on the bench.
Speaker 3: They've been hired by companies, but they're not actively involved
Speaker 3: in projects or day to day work even though they
Speaker 3: are hired on paper.
Speaker 2: And why is that.
Speaker 3: If I talk specifically about IT companies, the business of
Speaker 3: IT companies depends on work given by clients. So if
Speaker 3: because the war in Europe, or because of the war
Speaker 3: in the Middle East or sanctions on Russia, if companies
Speaker 3: are pausing spence, then that directly translates to lesser work
Speaker 3: for Indian outsources, which means that the people they've hired
Speaker 3: from colleges have to sit back till the time they're
Speaker 3: called for work by the Indian companies. You could call
Speaker 3: it disguised unemployment. They're hired on pay, but they're not
Speaker 3: getting any salaries or they're not getting any work as yet.
Speaker 3: And also AI is a disruptor. AI will disrupt more
Speaker 3: and more work, which means that all of the college
Speaker 3: graduates in engineering may not immediately get jobs.
Speaker 2: Another factor that could discourage skilled Indian professionals from staying
Speaker 2: in India the work culture.
Speaker 3: Our majority of businesses in India are family run. These
Speaker 3: are not professionally run businesses, which essentially boils down to
Speaker 3: a very toxic workplace situation or a non professional setup.
Speaker 3: And you don't have the semblance of a work life balance.
Speaker 3: So the idea of working in a global cooperation comes
Speaker 3: with its compensation benefits as well as good work life balance,
Speaker 3: a global culture, and I think that's what's lacking in
Speaker 3: Indian companies.
Speaker 2: Still, Sandcops says the ripple effects of H and B
Speaker 2: visa changes might help India retain some of its talent,
Speaker 2: at least for now. India has the third largest startup
Speaker 2: ecosys in the world, trailing only the US and China.
Speaker 3: If American companies continue to push hard on these global
Speaker 3: capability centers, you could make the case that a lot
Speaker 3: of Indian talent would otherwise go to the US on
Speaker 3: H one bes could end up working in India with
Speaker 3: American corporations in their innovation in their R and D centers.
Speaker 3: Right now, everything is pretty volatile. The situation is still emerging,
Speaker 3: but in the long run, I think things should settle
Speaker 3: and it shouldn't be that bad.
Speaker 2: There have been a series of blows to India from
Speaker 2: US policy. First there were moves to restrict student visas.
Speaker 2: Then India got hit with fifty percent tariffs, which is
Speaker 2: among the highest of countries, and now of course h
Speaker 2: one B's. For many years, India was seen as a
Speaker 2: partner for the US in Asia. Do Indians now feel
Speaker 2: like the relationship is taking this dramatic downward.
Speaker 3: Term, Yes, of course. I mean it's quite visible to
Speaker 3: Indians that America, which had seen India as a friend
Speaker 3: over the decades, the sort of camaraderie that existed between
Speaker 3: President Trump and Prime Minister Modi is definitely fading because
Speaker 3: we've seen these punitive measures in India. And when I
Speaker 3: talk to sources in the tech industry, when I talk
Speaker 3: to political people, there's always a sense that the US
Speaker 3: has not been kind to India and has been extremely
Speaker 3: harsh and has not valued the strategic relationship that it wanted,
Speaker 3: that the two countries wanted. I think the government certainly
Speaker 3: is recalibrating its US policy, but Indians in general continue
Speaker 3: to see US as a destination. Indian skill talent continues
Speaker 3: to view US companies as a destination for their careers.
Speaker 3: So to the general public, US and its leure is
Speaker 3: still there.
Speaker 2: Could this turn into a moment for India, for India
Speaker 2: to rise, to really find a way to change its
Speaker 2: culture to make it more appealing for the most educated,
Speaker 2: the most talented to stay here in India and not
Speaker 2: go overseas for opportunity.
Speaker 3: I would certainly hope so, But I could have said
Speaker 3: that at any point in the last twenty years. It
Speaker 3: really depends on whether India's able to create the kind
Speaker 3: of global environment that it's skilled professionals need, Whether India
Speaker 3: is able to create that kind of physical as well
Speaker 3: as digital infrastructure that global professionals need. Whether India is
Speaker 3: able to give global companies the ease of doing business
Speaker 3: that they find in China or in Vietnam. It really
Speaker 3: depends on how the government wants to seize this opportunity.
Speaker 3: Can we do better and turn India into a global
Speaker 3: workplace bigger than it already is, Yes we can. Is
Speaker 3: there room for improvement, yes, But you know, all of
Speaker 3: the world's biggest corporations are already here, and I think
Speaker 3: we are very much near to grabbing this moment and
Speaker 3: making it ours.
Speaker 2: This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm wanha.
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