1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:08,520 --> 00:00:12,200 Speaker 2: Ayush is an IT consultant in his early thirties from India. 3 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 2: He lives in the US with his wife, and he 4 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 2: told Bloomberg Sun called Fatial that they like it there. 5 00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 3: He and his wife have been in the US for 6 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:24,080 Speaker 3: very many years. They work for NIGHTI Company, and they 7 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:26,200 Speaker 3: love working for that company. The environment in that company 8 00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:26,720 Speaker 3: is great. 9 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 2: Last month, Ayusch was in India visiting family, but the 10 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:33,320 Speaker 2: day before he was due to return to the US, 11 00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:35,960 Speaker 2: he woke up to a bunch of missed calls and 12 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 2: frantic text messages from. 13 00:00:38,080 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 3: Friends, friends saying where are you come back? Immediately? Did 14 00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 3: you see the news? 15 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:45,159 Speaker 2: Ayusch and his wife are recipients of one of the 16 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 2: most coveted visas in the world, the H one B 17 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:52,960 Speaker 2: that allows highly skilled foreign nationals to live and work 18 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 2: in the United States, and on that morning, the news 19 00:00:56,040 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 2: was about a major overhaul of that program. The President 20 00:00:59,880 --> 00:01:01,920 Speaker 2: is said to add a new one hundred thousand dollars 21 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 2: fee for H ONEB visas in the latest one hundred 22 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 2: thousand dollars, more than ten times what the visa had 23 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:12,280 Speaker 2: cost in the past. The news sent hundreds of thousands 24 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 2: of H one B visa holders worldwide into a spiral. 25 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:18,840 Speaker 2: It wasn't clear who the new fee applied to or 26 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:22,039 Speaker 2: whether the current visa holders like Ayush would be charged 27 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 2: upon re entering the US. 28 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:25,840 Speaker 3: If you know anyone who's on it one be in 29 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:28,320 Speaker 3: India right now, tell them to border the flat as 30 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:29,120 Speaker 3: soon as possible. 31 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:31,640 Speaker 1: I'm so mad and frustrated right now. If you're currently 32 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:34,000 Speaker 1: in US with the H one B visa working as 33 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:35,959 Speaker 1: a pointer, do not leave this country. 34 00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 2: President Donald Trump's announcement of the new fees was especially 35 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:44,400 Speaker 2: unsettling for the Indian community. That's because Indians make up 36 00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 2: roughly seventy percent of H one B holders. Ayush didn't 37 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 2: want to speak to us on tape out of fear 38 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:53,280 Speaker 2: that it would jeopardize his career, but he's agreed to 39 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 2: let Bloomberg sunkap Fartiel tell his story instead. 40 00:01:58,000 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 3: He told me that he was in the line for 41 00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 3: immigration just a few minutes before the deadline kicked in 42 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 3: on September twenty first. Thankfully, he is admitted in. 43 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 2: For decades, the H ONEB program was a way to 44 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:13,679 Speaker 2: address labor shortages in the US. The vast majority of 45 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 2: H ONEB holders work in the tech sector for the 46 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:20,080 Speaker 2: likes of Meta Inphasis and Google's parent company Alphabet. 47 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:22,840 Speaker 3: A lot of very famous people in the US have 48 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:25,520 Speaker 3: come to the US, and H one B Zylon Musk 49 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 3: being one of them, the current Google CEO, Alphabet CEO 50 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:29,359 Speaker 3: Sunda Pichai. 51 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 2: In the past and H one B visa would set 52 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:36,359 Speaker 2: companies back several thousand dollars for the application fee and 53 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 2: subsequent costs. But as of September twenty first, any new 54 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 2: applications for the work visa will carry a one hundred 55 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 2: thousand dollars fee. Here's US Secretary of Commerce Howard Ludnik. 56 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:48,639 Speaker 2: So the whole. 57 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:50,239 Speaker 3: Idea is no more. 58 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:53,799 Speaker 2: All these big tech companies or other big companies train 59 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 2: foreign workers. 60 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 3: They have to pay the government one hundred thousand dollars, 61 00:02:57,720 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 3: then they have to. 62 00:02:58,240 --> 00:02:59,240 Speaker 1: Pay the employee. 63 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:02,040 Speaker 3: So it's it's just non economic. 64 00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 2: Suncope says. This was the last straw for our Yush 65 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:08,680 Speaker 2: and his family. He's now decided to leave the US 66 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:10,880 Speaker 2: and is looking for jobs in Europe. 67 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 3: US is now not a place they want to be in. 68 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:18,119 Speaker 3: This is not the fear that they want to live 69 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 3: with that will be kicked out or we won't be 70 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:22,880 Speaker 3: admitted in He says that I'm not really sure. You know, 71 00:03:22,880 --> 00:03:25,800 Speaker 3: Trump is unpredictable. What if he wakes up tomorrow morning 72 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 3: with a cup of coffee, changes the rules and says, okay, 73 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:31,120 Speaker 3: this rule applies to even existing H onebb's a holders. 74 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:33,360 Speaker 3: I just do not want to live with that stress. 75 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 3: It's okay. I will earn less money somewhere else, but 76 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:38,760 Speaker 3: at least I'll be happy. 77 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 2: This is the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm wanha. 78 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 2: Every week we take you inside some of the world's 79 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 2: biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons, and 80 00:03:56,960 --> 00:04:01,000 Speaker 2: businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today, on the 81 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 2: show the one hundred thousand dollars Visa, what Trump's new 82 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 2: visa fee means for Indian talent and could the US's 83 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 2: loss be India's game. The H one B visa program 84 00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 2: was introduced in nineteen ninety to address specific labor shortages. 85 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:22,920 Speaker 2: It allows companies in the US to hire college educated 86 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:26,600 Speaker 2: foreign workers for specialized jobs for up to six years. 87 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 2: Since H one B is a dual intent visa, an 88 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 2: employer can sponsor the same worker for a green card, 89 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:36,560 Speaker 2: which grants them permanent residency even while the worker is 90 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 2: still on the H one B Bloomberg sankalp Fartial says 91 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:42,799 Speaker 2: today more than sixty percent of H one B visas 92 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 2: are used by the tech industry. 93 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 3: The US companies like Google and Microsoft and Amazon are 94 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 3: among the biggest users of H oneb's, but also Indian 95 00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:57,720 Speaker 3: outsourcers or IT services companies like Tata Consultancy Services or 96 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 3: Emphasis are big users. The way it works is that 97 00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:06,280 Speaker 3: companies see a requirement for specialized let's say, in this case, 98 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:09,880 Speaker 3: engineering talent, and they don't seem to find them in 99 00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:13,600 Speaker 3: the US, so employers make the applications. There's a lottery 100 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:18,119 Speaker 3: system every year, and once the lottery is taken out, 101 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 3: whoever gets their name in gets to go to the US. 102 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:25,360 Speaker 2: About eighty five thousand new HEV visas are issued every year. 103 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:29,080 Speaker 2: Sixty five thousand of them bring in general talent from abroad. 104 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 2: The remaining twenty thousand are reserved for non US citizens 105 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:37,839 Speaker 2: who received advanced degrees from American universities. Since twenty eleven, 106 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:41,240 Speaker 2: roughly seventy percent of the visas approved each year have 107 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 2: gone to Indian born citizens. Sankop says, for a lot 108 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:48,599 Speaker 2: of educated middle class Indians going to the US has 109 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:51,600 Speaker 2: been the ultimate dream, the American dream. 110 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:55,159 Speaker 3: You know, like everybody else from my generation. I sat 111 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:57,680 Speaker 3: for an engineering exam. Thankfully I did not get thro. 112 00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 3: I would have made a terrible engineer. But common saying 113 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:02,720 Speaker 3: in India that if you throw a rock up in 114 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 3: the air, it'd probably hit an engineer. We have so 115 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:09,280 Speaker 3: many engineers and engining colleges here, and engineering was and 116 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 3: continues to be seen as a pathway to a better life, 117 00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 3: as a pathway to go to the US, as a 118 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:17,880 Speaker 3: means to get a green card or maybe settle in 119 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 3: the US, essentially a better lifestyle and a good career. 120 00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:24,960 Speaker 2: It also meant they learned far more than they would 121 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:26,160 Speaker 2: staying in India. 122 00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:28,560 Speaker 3: If you look at the conversion rate of dollar to 123 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 3: the rupee, Indians would send money home and they would 124 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 3: make their savings and rupees, so effectively they're paid much more. 125 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 3: Someone with a master's degree and who's been in the 126 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 3: US on an H one B for about four years 127 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 3: could make anywhere between one hundred and fifty thousand dollars 128 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:44,000 Speaker 3: to two hundred thousand dollars a year. The kind of 129 00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:46,719 Speaker 3: money that someone with that experience and the would make 130 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:50,760 Speaker 3: would be in millions of rupees, but not as much 131 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:52,919 Speaker 3: as somebody like that would make in the US. 132 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:57,159 Speaker 2: But the program has come under criticism in recent years. 133 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 3: Conservatives have criticized this program for taking away US jobs 134 00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:09,360 Speaker 3: for cheap labor, including from India, undercutting US jobs. 135 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:12,120 Speaker 2: In its statement announcing changes to the H one B 136 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 2: visa program, the White House said American workers were being 137 00:07:15,680 --> 00:07:19,280 Speaker 2: replaced with lower paid foreign labor and called it a 138 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:23,640 Speaker 2: national security threat. The Trump administration also claimed some entry 139 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 2: LEVELHEB visa holders make about a third less than full 140 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 2: time traditional workers. That wasn't verified by Bloomberg, but a 141 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:35,120 Speaker 2: Bloomberg investigation published earlier this year did find that US 142 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 2: banks and telecom companies used the visa program to hire 143 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:42,200 Speaker 2: lower paid workers. They were able to do this indirectly 144 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:46,040 Speaker 2: through staffing and outsourcing companies that have previously been able 145 00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:49,400 Speaker 2: to capture about half of the new visas allocated each year. 146 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 2: By introducing a high barrier to hiring foreign workers, the 147 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:58,040 Speaker 2: hope is that companies would train and hire Americans instead, 148 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:01,480 Speaker 2: but Sandhope says it's not year whether that will happen. 149 00:08:02,240 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 3: Not everybody is undercutting jobs. There may be few who 150 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 3: are undercutting American skilled workers, but the whole idea revolves 151 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:14,480 Speaker 3: around the fact that America has a dearth of STEM 152 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 3: talent science, tech, engineering, and math, and Indians or Chinese 153 00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:22,360 Speaker 3: seem to be more skilled on those aspects. This is 154 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:26,440 Speaker 3: a very conservative approach to say that these people are 155 00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 3: taking away American jobs, because when these people go to 156 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:32,520 Speaker 3: American companies, they're also creating more jobs. They're paying Social Security, 157 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:35,400 Speaker 3: they're paying taxes, so that's fueling the economy as well. 158 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 3: The way to look at this is that this is 159 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 3: essentially putting breaks on a moving car that was doing 160 00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:47,160 Speaker 3: well for the US. And if you don't bring H 161 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:50,480 Speaker 3: one B workers to the US to work for companies, 162 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:54,400 Speaker 3: that means you're essentially raising the costs for American corporations 163 00:08:54,440 --> 00:08:57,840 Speaker 3: as well, because these people go there specifically to work 164 00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 3: on the demand of American corporations. For Indian outsources, they 165 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:04,400 Speaker 3: send these people to client sites. They're important and maintaining 166 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:07,960 Speaker 3: client relationships, work for clients and sensitive projects. 167 00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:11,760 Speaker 2: What potentially could be the ripple effects for Indian IT 168 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 2: firms like Infosys and tatas some of the biggest who 169 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 2: do use H one bs and as well as the 170 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:19,360 Speaker 2: next tier of companies right the software services firms. 171 00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:24,000 Speaker 3: Software services companies in India are already struggling with muted growth. 172 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 3: They also have a new challenge, journey AI. So this 173 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:29,679 Speaker 3: is another kick on the backside, if I can call 174 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:33,200 Speaker 3: it that, in terms of how they will whether the storm. 175 00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:37,600 Speaker 3: They are considering sending fewer people. At the same time, 176 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:40,600 Speaker 3: employers could be willing to pay that one hundred thousand 177 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:43,440 Speaker 3: dollar fee. They really want skilled talent from India to 178 00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:45,280 Speaker 3: go to the US. But those are the ones that 179 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:47,560 Speaker 3: are really, really smart, and those are the ones that 180 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 3: employers are willing to pay for. So there'll be a 181 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:51,920 Speaker 3: certain reduction in the number of people that go to 182 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 3: the US. Will h one be alone uppend the entire 183 00:09:56,400 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 3: Indian IT industry, No, I don't believe it will. 184 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:04,400 Speaker 2: As the US raises barriers for foreign workers. Is the 185 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:08,560 Speaker 2: American dream out of reach for Indians? And can India 186 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:12,440 Speaker 2: or other countries capitalize on this opportunity to lure talent 187 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:26,160 Speaker 2: for tens of thousands of Indian workers. The dream of 188 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 2: building a career in the United States may be slipping away, 189 00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:34,599 Speaker 2: but sanjap Partial says new opportunities are opening up elsewhere. 190 00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:39,840 Speaker 2: Could the policy also unintentionally in some ways benefit India 191 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:43,680 Speaker 2: by retaining more skilled workers here domestically instead of them 192 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 2: going overseas. 193 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 3: It's a theory, It's a good theory, but not likely. 194 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:51,280 Speaker 3: It all depends on whether India seizes the moment to 195 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:54,480 Speaker 3: bring out policies that could help retain talent, because one 196 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 3: of the biggest reasons Indian talent went outside was more money. 197 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:03,839 Speaker 3: But all so stable policy, good working environment, the chance 198 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 3: to work in a global company. If India is able 199 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:12,560 Speaker 3: to give its talent good product and services jobs, create 200 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:17,560 Speaker 3: a global work environment, maintain that healthy work life balance. Yes, 201 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 3: we could retain some talent, but one could argue that 202 00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:23,200 Speaker 3: good talent will always find its way to find the 203 00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:23,840 Speaker 3: best job. 204 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:27,840 Speaker 2: I want to talk a little bit about the on 205 00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:30,440 Speaker 2: the ground effect, you know, impact as well. I mean, 206 00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:33,000 Speaker 2: the H one B program has been a part of 207 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:36,160 Speaker 2: this market success for a lot of Indians being able 208 00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:38,720 Speaker 2: to work in the US. What does this mean for 209 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 2: you know, those people and their kind of hopes and dreams. 210 00:11:41,640 --> 00:11:43,760 Speaker 3: I've been speaking to some of the people who've gone 211 00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:46,560 Speaker 3: to the US on each one BS, even some students. 212 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:50,040 Speaker 3: There is a sense of extreme nervousness. I think the 213 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:53,679 Speaker 3: constant flip flop on policy, which wasn't the case in 214 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 3: the US earlier, is something that terrifies people and makes 215 00:11:57,160 --> 00:12:00,360 Speaker 3: them extremely nervous. And so I think the whole idea 216 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:04,000 Speaker 3: that US is a stable place to work for foreigners 217 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 3: or immigrants, that ideas just shattered. 218 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:11,840 Speaker 2: Some countries are already moving to capitalize on the chaos. 219 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:15,679 Speaker 2: After Trump announced the changes to the H and B program, 220 00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:19,160 Speaker 2: the UK said Britain will make it easier for companies 221 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:20,320 Speaker 2: to bring in top talent. 222 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 3: Canada, UK, Australia and Eastern Europe are emerging as new 223 00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:29,720 Speaker 3: tech and outsourcing hubs, and even though salaries there could 224 00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:32,199 Speaker 3: be lower than in the Silicon Valley or the US 225 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 3: in general, these new hubs will be able to draw 226 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:40,720 Speaker 3: Indian talent because of good working conditions and competitive pay packages. 227 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:45,640 Speaker 2: Meanwhile, Germany's ambassador to India released a video message encouraging 228 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:49,959 Speaker 2: skilled Indian professionals to consider Germany as their next destination. 229 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 1: Highly skilled Indians are welcoming Germany. Our migration policy works 230 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:58,960 Speaker 1: a bit like a German car. It's reliable, it is modern, 231 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:02,360 Speaker 1: it is predictable, it will go in a straight line. 232 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:05,080 Speaker 2: And while this may look like a golden opportunity to 233 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 2: attract foreign talent, Sankop says one country could end up 234 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:14,319 Speaker 2: missing out India itself. The country is grappling with rising 235 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 2: use unemployment and an underemployment crisis. 236 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:22,839 Speaker 3: We have reported instance of college workers sitting on the bench. 237 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:25,720 Speaker 3: They've been hired by companies, but they're not actively involved 238 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:28,040 Speaker 3: in projects or day to day work even though they 239 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:29,400 Speaker 3: are hired on paper. 240 00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:30,680 Speaker 2: And why is that. 241 00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:34,480 Speaker 3: If I talk specifically about IT companies, the business of 242 00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 3: IT companies depends on work given by clients. So if 243 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 3: because the war in Europe, or because of the war 244 00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:44,960 Speaker 3: in the Middle East or sanctions on Russia, if companies 245 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:48,880 Speaker 3: are pausing spence, then that directly translates to lesser work 246 00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:52,000 Speaker 3: for Indian outsources, which means that the people they've hired 247 00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:55,240 Speaker 3: from colleges have to sit back till the time they're 248 00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:57,679 Speaker 3: called for work by the Indian companies. You could call 249 00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:00,680 Speaker 3: it disguised unemployment. They're hired on pay, but they're not 250 00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:03,560 Speaker 3: getting any salaries or they're not getting any work as yet. 251 00:14:04,120 --> 00:14:08,120 Speaker 3: And also AI is a disruptor. AI will disrupt more 252 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:10,840 Speaker 3: and more work, which means that all of the college 253 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 3: graduates in engineering may not immediately get jobs. 254 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:18,960 Speaker 2: Another factor that could discourage skilled Indian professionals from staying 255 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 2: in India the work culture. 256 00:14:21,200 --> 00:14:25,000 Speaker 3: Our majority of businesses in India are family run. These 257 00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:29,800 Speaker 3: are not professionally run businesses, which essentially boils down to 258 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:34,520 Speaker 3: a very toxic workplace situation or a non professional setup. 259 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:37,760 Speaker 3: And you don't have the semblance of a work life balance. 260 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 3: So the idea of working in a global cooperation comes 261 00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:44,880 Speaker 3: with its compensation benefits as well as good work life balance, 262 00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 3: a global culture, and I think that's what's lacking in 263 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:48,560 Speaker 3: Indian companies. 264 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:52,160 Speaker 2: Still, Sandcops says the ripple effects of H and B 265 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 2: visa changes might help India retain some of its talent, 266 00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:59,520 Speaker 2: at least for now. India has the third largest startup 267 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 2: ecosys in the world, trailing only the US and China. 268 00:15:03,560 --> 00:15:06,760 Speaker 3: If American companies continue to push hard on these global 269 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:09,480 Speaker 3: capability centers, you could make the case that a lot 270 00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:11,600 Speaker 3: of Indian talent would otherwise go to the US on 271 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:14,760 Speaker 3: H one bes could end up working in India with 272 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:18,840 Speaker 3: American corporations in their innovation in their R and D centers. 273 00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 3: Right now, everything is pretty volatile. The situation is still emerging, 274 00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 3: but in the long run, I think things should settle 275 00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:27,480 Speaker 3: and it shouldn't be that bad. 276 00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 2: There have been a series of blows to India from 277 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:33,360 Speaker 2: US policy. First there were moves to restrict student visas. 278 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:36,160 Speaker 2: Then India got hit with fifty percent tariffs, which is 279 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 2: among the highest of countries, and now of course h 280 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:41,920 Speaker 2: one B's. For many years, India was seen as a 281 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:45,760 Speaker 2: partner for the US in Asia. Do Indians now feel 282 00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 2: like the relationship is taking this dramatic downward. 283 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 3: Term, Yes, of course. I mean it's quite visible to 284 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:57,720 Speaker 3: Indians that America, which had seen India as a friend 285 00:15:57,720 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 3: over the decades, the sort of camaraderie that existed between 286 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 3: President Trump and Prime Minister Modi is definitely fading because 287 00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:10,120 Speaker 3: we've seen these punitive measures in India. And when I 288 00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:13,480 Speaker 3: talk to sources in the tech industry, when I talk 289 00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:18,760 Speaker 3: to political people, there's always a sense that the US 290 00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 3: has not been kind to India and has been extremely 291 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 3: harsh and has not valued the strategic relationship that it wanted, 292 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 3: that the two countries wanted. I think the government certainly 293 00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:38,080 Speaker 3: is recalibrating its US policy, but Indians in general continue 294 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:43,120 Speaker 3: to see US as a destination. Indian skill talent continues 295 00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:46,680 Speaker 3: to view US companies as a destination for their careers. 296 00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:51,360 Speaker 3: So to the general public, US and its leure is 297 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:52,000 Speaker 3: still there. 298 00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 2: Could this turn into a moment for India, for India 299 00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:58,960 Speaker 2: to rise, to really find a way to change its 300 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:03,479 Speaker 2: culture to make it more appealing for the most educated, 301 00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:06,840 Speaker 2: the most talented to stay here in India and not 302 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 2: go overseas for opportunity. 303 00:17:09,280 --> 00:17:11,120 Speaker 3: I would certainly hope so, But I could have said 304 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:14,520 Speaker 3: that at any point in the last twenty years. It 305 00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:18,960 Speaker 3: really depends on whether India's able to create the kind 306 00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:23,200 Speaker 3: of global environment that it's skilled professionals need, Whether India 307 00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:25,639 Speaker 3: is able to create that kind of physical as well 308 00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 3: as digital infrastructure that global professionals need. Whether India is 309 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 3: able to give global companies the ease of doing business 310 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:40,720 Speaker 3: that they find in China or in Vietnam. It really 311 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 3: depends on how the government wants to seize this opportunity. 312 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 3: Can we do better and turn India into a global 313 00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 3: workplace bigger than it already is, Yes we can. Is 314 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:53,560 Speaker 3: there room for improvement, yes, But you know, all of 315 00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:56,600 Speaker 3: the world's biggest corporations are already here, and I think 316 00:17:56,720 --> 00:18:01,640 Speaker 3: we are very much near to grabbing this moment and 317 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:02,480 Speaker 3: making it ours. 318 00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:11,679 Speaker 2: This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm wanha. 319 00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:15,040 Speaker 2: To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access 320 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:18,120 Speaker 2: to all of Bloomberg dot Com, subscribe today at Bloomberg 321 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:21,760 Speaker 2: dot com slash podcast Offer. If you liked the episode, 322 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 2: make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take Asia 323 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:27,680 Speaker 2: wherever you listen to podcasts. It really helps people find 324 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:30,080 Speaker 2: the show. Thanks for listening, See you next time.