WEBVTT - AI Jitters Cloud Market Optimism Over Shutdown Resolution 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:13.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 0:00:13.840 --> 0:00:17.920 Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 0:00:18.200 --> 0:00:22.000 on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 0:00:22.360 --> 0:00:25.680 Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 0:00:25.760 --> 0:00:27.160 us live on YouTube. 0:00:27.440 --> 0:00:29.200 Right now, we're gonna get right to it. We've got 0:00:29.200 --> 0:00:32.720 a wonderful conversation here. What Oliver Wyman has done as 0:00:32.760 --> 0:00:34.559 part of marsh Broc Clennan and Mercer and all the 0:00:34.600 --> 0:00:37.760 rest is it gone out to people that have shown 0:00:38.520 --> 0:00:43.280 stunning expertise in different fields, pooled them in together and 0:00:43.360 --> 0:00:47.239 it's like a legit global consultancy. So to explain, you know, 0:00:47.280 --> 0:00:50.560 it's like Butch Cassidy, who are the nice Scott Dan 0:00:50.640 --> 0:00:55.840 tannebon Is sanctions. He's the one that knows who's cheating 0:00:56.080 --> 0:00:59.080 and why they're cheating and what's going to take the will, 0:00:59.280 --> 0:01:01.520 if you will, for in the case of Russia, for 0:01:01.560 --> 0:01:04.440 Europe to get its act together. Hu Van Steinis was 0:01:04.600 --> 0:01:10.480 iconic at Morgan Stanley, Ages, Ago and Finance in banking worldwide. 0:01:10.560 --> 0:01:14.839 Huvanstinius's partner vice chair at Oliver Wyman. Daniel Tannemum partner 0:01:14.880 --> 0:01:19.920 global anti financial crime practice leader at Oliver Wyman. Here, 0:01:20.000 --> 0:01:23.360 let me start with you the year end, and you 0:01:23.360 --> 0:01:25.680 know it's not like thirty pages, the one hundred and 0:01:25.760 --> 0:01:30.120 twenty page Oliver Wyman, this is twenty twenty six. Do 0:01:30.160 --> 0:01:33.280 you have a theme yet? It's a great question. 0:01:33.360 --> 0:01:33.680 We'll look. 0:01:33.720 --> 0:01:33.800 So. 0:01:33.840 --> 0:01:35.440 I was just chatting with one of my friends about 0:01:35.480 --> 0:01:38.640 their their outlook yesterday and they said the biggest question 0:01:38.720 --> 0:01:42.440 for them was has the flurry of defaults? Is that 0:01:42.480 --> 0:01:44.360 going to be a snowstorm or is it going to 0:01:44.360 --> 0:01:46.720 be That was just a little flurry which came past us. 0:01:46.720 --> 0:01:50.000 So this, I think the credit markets spreads are historically tight, 0:01:50.520 --> 0:01:53.280 riskwards a little bit tighter than it was. Where does that? 0:01:53.280 --> 0:01:55.320 Where did credit markets go from here? And is much 0:01:55.360 --> 0:01:57.000 of a slow down? I think that's one of the 0:01:57.000 --> 0:02:00.720 big questions on our plant's mind. Obviously the whole AI 0:02:01.160 --> 0:02:04.640 data center growth or that off with that impetus offset, 0:02:04.880 --> 0:02:07.360 that's clearly a baked in and a big debate too. 0:02:07.440 --> 0:02:09.040 But lots around credit markets. 0:02:09.120 --> 0:02:11.040 But when you're dark in the door at Oxford, did 0:02:11.080 --> 0:02:12.680 you take cockroach four oh two? 0:02:13.040 --> 0:02:14.679 I mean, you know the cockroaches out there? 0:02:14.960 --> 0:02:16.800 Yeah, we don't get so many cockroaches in the UK 0:02:18.000 --> 0:02:20.040 Chilli there private credit. 0:02:20.160 --> 0:02:22.640 I mean, this isn't your main question for banking and 0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:24.040 for everybody out there? 0:02:24.120 --> 0:02:26.600 Are they going to do you sense us as cockroaches. 0:02:27.080 --> 0:02:29.920 Look the way I take it is this feels like 0:02:30.000 --> 0:02:32.640 a bit late cycle behavior. So you know, you imagine 0:02:32.639 --> 0:02:34.920 we're we're a long way through a cycle. Some of 0:02:34.960 --> 0:02:37.040 the some of what we see and you've seen on 0:02:37.040 --> 0:02:40.960 Bloomberg this morning is fraud, some is uh, difficulties around 0:02:40.960 --> 0:02:44.600 a K shaped economy. What the real dissonance, Tom, is 0:02:44.600 --> 0:02:47.680 that the banks CFOs we engage with are not sensing 0:02:47.919 --> 0:02:50.400 a big pickup in credit. They're saying it's really benign. 0:02:50.720 --> 0:02:53.040 But obviously what the debate in the market is much 0:02:53.040 --> 0:02:55.400 more concerned. So I think there's a real tension there 0:02:56.160 --> 0:02:59.400 at the moment. I don't see. Look, this late cycle, 0:02:59.440 --> 0:03:02.240 there will be more folks. The key question is are 0:03:02.280 --> 0:03:06.079 they well spread and are they amplified? Dan, what's the 0:03:06.760 --> 0:03:09.680 latest here on I don't know. I guess just our 0:03:09.919 --> 0:03:13.720 tariff policy here in the US. The Supreme Court heard 0:03:13.720 --> 0:03:16.280 some arguments last week. I guess we'll hear from them 0:03:16.800 --> 0:03:21.080 later this year here. But what's the policy these days 0:03:21.120 --> 0:03:22.600 on tariff's is there one? 0:03:22.680 --> 0:03:25.480 Well, I mean, the policy is the Trump administration is 0:03:25.520 --> 0:03:28.480 treating that hearing like it's a speed bump, if at 0:03:28.480 --> 0:03:31.200 all okay, and really trying to come out saying we 0:03:31.280 --> 0:03:34.400 have other authorities we can use, whether it's Section two 0:03:34.440 --> 0:03:36.600 thirty two or three ZHO one, which are much more 0:03:36.640 --> 0:03:40.360 limited than what the president attempted under AEPA, which is 0:03:40.400 --> 0:03:45.120 a reminder, AEPA was created to limit the president's authorities. 0:03:45.200 --> 0:03:48.240 So all of the rhetoric that Trump had set around 0:03:48.280 --> 0:03:50.720 tariffs and the run up to and aftermath of Liberation 0:03:50.880 --> 0:03:53.720 Day kind of shot the whole argument in the foot, 0:03:53.760 --> 0:03:57.120 and it's why even the conservative justices were pretty skeptical 0:03:57.960 --> 0:04:01.120 of the arguments made. So I think the administration is 0:04:01.160 --> 0:04:05.320 trying to show confidence that their strategy will move forward. 0:04:05.360 --> 0:04:06.200 Do you believe in that? 0:04:06.320 --> 0:04:08.880 I mean, investment's over it with Morning Joe right now 0:04:09.200 --> 0:04:11.600 talking it up. I mean, the basic gist Paul's talking 0:04:11.680 --> 0:04:13.560 about is we've moved on from tariffs. 0:04:13.560 --> 0:04:14.880 So I don't buy it for a minute. 0:04:14.920 --> 0:04:17.640 We've definitely not moved on from tariffs, because if we do, 0:04:17.720 --> 0:04:21.000 that's a key part of this administration strategy for hammering 0:04:21.040 --> 0:04:23.560 out trade deals. So it literally kicks the stool out 0:04:23.560 --> 0:04:25.560 from under a bunch of them. And you look at 0:04:25.560 --> 0:04:27.919 what's happening between the US and China where there's this 0:04:28.279 --> 0:04:31.479 detent for the moment, does that go away? Does China 0:04:31.520 --> 0:04:33.640 begin to turn the screws again and turn off this 0:04:33.680 --> 0:04:36.880 spigot for the five rare earths they began allowing movement of. 0:04:37.880 --> 0:04:42.000 So part of the just the talk of this administration 0:04:42.080 --> 0:04:45.719 has been really impacting your industry, the financial services industry 0:04:45.800 --> 0:04:49.839 in terms of deregulation. Is that a thing or they've 0:04:49.839 --> 0:04:51.880 been focusing so much on tariffs they haven't looked at 0:04:51.880 --> 0:04:53.359 the banking system. 0:04:53.560 --> 0:04:53.760 Oh. 0:04:53.839 --> 0:04:57.520 I think that the simplification of bank rules is one 0:04:57.520 --> 0:05:00.479 of the four big priorities for the administration. I think that, 0:05:00.800 --> 0:05:04.839 you know, funding the data center, build out, the energy security, 0:05:04.960 --> 0:05:07.800 the rare earth supply chains. Think about the JP Morgan 0:05:07.839 --> 0:05:11.360 announcement about national security, huge numbers for the next decade. 0:05:11.440 --> 0:05:15.560 So now I think that financial deregulation, financial simplifications. I mean, 0:05:15.640 --> 0:05:18.160 as I think the industry is calling it is a 0:05:18.240 --> 0:05:20.920 huge part of this, and I think what we're seeing it. 0:05:21.080 --> 0:05:23.520 Think about the data center, it's all hands on deck. 0:05:24.120 --> 0:05:26.359 The banks alone and can't do it. A private markets 0:05:26.360 --> 0:05:28.960 alone clearly can't do it, so you need both working together. 0:05:29.440 --> 0:05:31.840 I think that does mean that the banks are feeling, 0:05:32.000 --> 0:05:33.200 you know, a bit of a spring and their step, 0:05:33.360 --> 0:05:36.920 certainly the larger ones because of the And the key 0:05:37.000 --> 0:05:38.600 question will be how much of it comes back in 0:05:38.920 --> 0:05:42.760 buybacks and dividends versus actually really reinvested. And that's the 0:05:42.800 --> 0:05:43.400 bet Here. 0:05:43.440 --> 0:05:46.360 Special momenting this morning, Daniel Tanna bound Hu Vanstein is 0:05:46.360 --> 0:05:49.560 there with Oliver Wyman, together with us in the studio. 0:05:49.600 --> 0:05:51.800 I want to go a holistic cany I mentioned yesterday 0:05:51.839 --> 0:05:56.360 Apple TV down Cemetery Road. It's like a travelogue for Oxford. 0:05:56.880 --> 0:06:00.320 Basically it's centered in Oxford, and they use the Bloomberg terminal. 0:06:00.400 --> 0:06:02.160 Great within a nice I mean, I was looking for 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:05.039 your pod, didn't see yeah there, but you know, you 0:06:05.080 --> 0:06:08.160 know down Cemetery Roads doing the Bloomberg thing. You saw 0:06:08.320 --> 0:06:11.400 Hugh von steinas and slow horses like season three they 0:06:11.400 --> 0:06:14.839 made an appearance. I want you guys to talk about 0:06:15.120 --> 0:06:19.839 great Britain and is a general sense Dan yours the 0:06:19.960 --> 0:06:23.040 ugly American foreigner here you're living at your service to 0:06:23.080 --> 0:06:25.840 the to the to the public of the United Kingdom. 0:06:26.120 --> 0:06:30.040 From where we sit. It's turned upside down. Kit Jukes 0:06:30.040 --> 0:06:34.440 at Sacchen this morning with a blistering Noe Jordan Rochester 0:06:34.600 --> 0:06:38.800 models one south of one thirty. Here Von steinas where 0:06:38.880 --> 0:06:40.760 is your nation in twelve months? 0:06:42.120 --> 0:06:44.960 Look, it's a great question when we would have these debates, 0:06:45.000 --> 0:06:48.120 Say fifteen years ago, the UK was mid atlantic. We did, 0:06:48.160 --> 0:06:50.360 We had the growth rate which was mid atlantic. We 0:06:50.400 --> 0:06:53.680 had the deregulation which was edging between the two continents. 0:06:54.600 --> 0:06:57.279 And I think post the financial crisis and particularly Brexit, 0:06:57.880 --> 0:07:00.400 the moment we voted to leave, the more European became. 0:07:00.800 --> 0:07:03.560 And I think that's the challenge and that's the problem here, 0:07:03.600 --> 0:07:06.919 that the politics has become more unstable in Itali's the 0:07:06.960 --> 0:07:09.320 finances have become a little bit more unstable. And I 0:07:09.320 --> 0:07:11.080 think the debate here is like will we get a 0:07:11.160 --> 0:07:14.400 little will the pressure from the bomb market's edges back 0:07:14.400 --> 0:07:17.000 to that mid atlanticism or we just got stuck in 0:07:17.040 --> 0:07:19.280 a bit of a rut. And I think, look, politically 0:07:19.280 --> 0:07:22.440 it's painful, but like everything in life, it's not all 0:07:22.440 --> 0:07:23.440 about politics. 0:07:23.760 --> 0:07:27.520 Stuff on the economy expert and Heathrow, in the tram 0:07:27.600 --> 0:07:30.240 and in sanctions and all that you said on the 0:07:30.280 --> 0:07:34.040 truck lines that the port of Dover is the relationship with. 0:07:34.000 --> 0:07:36.360 The United Kingdom and the continent of Europe. Is it 0:07:36.400 --> 0:07:38.480 basically shattered because of Brexit? 0:07:39.120 --> 0:07:39.480 I don't. 0:07:39.840 --> 0:07:42.160 I'm not sure I would agree with that. I mean, 0:07:42.280 --> 0:07:44.800 Hugh is certainly the expert on this, but is it 0:07:44.960 --> 0:07:49.200 shattered because of Brexit? I mean, interestingly in my world 0:07:49.280 --> 0:07:51.320 and I was I've been in Brussels and London in 0:07:51.360 --> 0:07:52.400 the last few weeks. 0:07:52.680 --> 0:07:53.880 If you take the issue. 0:07:53.560 --> 0:07:57.240 Of Russia, I think there's general alignment between the European Commission, 0:07:57.560 --> 0:07:59.640 the British, the US, which is nice to see for 0:07:59.680 --> 0:08:02.080 a chain. So, I mean, I think it may be 0:08:02.200 --> 0:08:05.560 on an episodic basis, but shattered seems like a stretch. 0:08:05.640 --> 0:08:07.920 So they're getting they're getting on, they're getting a lot, 0:08:08.040 --> 0:08:08.320 I think. 0:08:08.400 --> 0:08:12.400 So we'll just get back to such to finance, it's interesting, 0:08:12.440 --> 0:08:15.280 I think the it's interesting how two big private market 0:08:15.280 --> 0:08:18.680 films of both both bought in the UK recently, so 0:08:18.720 --> 0:08:21.520 there's actually there's there's there's money to be made in 0:08:21.560 --> 0:08:24.440 terms of financing. The economy may not be leaping ahead, 0:08:24.520 --> 0:08:25.640 but there's business to be done. 0:08:25.920 --> 0:08:28.920 Can I poss got okay? Questions here? I Vantstein is 0:08:29.000 --> 0:08:32.679 dantan about with us. All my radar is up and 0:08:32.720 --> 0:08:37.640 I'm biased saying go along United Kingdom. It's so gloomy, like, 0:08:37.760 --> 0:08:40.720 what's the royal family going to do? What in God's 0:08:40.800 --> 0:08:43.920 name is tatany I'm gonna do? Time? May you late 0:08:43.960 --> 0:08:47.480 in the game? I mean my gut feeling is this 0:08:47.559 --> 0:08:50.520 is the time to go long breckxit long UK? Is 0:08:50.559 --> 0:08:52.520 that in the Oliver Wyman zeitgeist. 0:08:52.800 --> 0:08:54.400 Look, I know, I think it's an interesting call. 0:08:54.440 --> 0:08:56.960 I mean, the moment where you get this, the pessimism 0:08:57.000 --> 0:08:59.560 about the UK, particularly my trip here to the US, 0:08:59.679 --> 0:09:02.240 is profound. So I think you're right that I think 0:09:02.240 --> 0:09:04.440 it is kind of darkest before dawn. I think the 0:09:04.440 --> 0:09:08.000 pressure from the bomb market is going to challenge the 0:09:08.000 --> 0:09:12.280 government to make better fiscal decisions. Look, there's a little 0:09:12.280 --> 0:09:14.880 bit of caution, but I see a lot of interest around. 0:09:15.000 --> 0:09:17.520 You talked about Oxford, around the universities as a huge 0:09:17.520 --> 0:09:21.520 science parks being built. You know, the Ellison Institute is 0:09:21.559 --> 0:09:23.719 just poured in over one hundred million into Oxford. I 0:09:23.720 --> 0:09:27.679 think there's a lot of excitement around US science and energy. 0:09:28.040 --> 0:09:31.280 But you know, I think it's most important to invest 0:09:31.320 --> 0:09:32.640 through the politics, not because of. 0:09:33.480 --> 0:09:36.880 So, Daniel tos As you mentioned some of the sanctions 0:09:37.520 --> 0:09:41.200 on Russia and so on. We're talk to us about sanctions, 0:09:41.200 --> 0:09:44.199 do they work at all here? Because it just seems 0:09:44.280 --> 0:09:47.960 we have wave after wave after wave of sanctions and 0:09:48.000 --> 0:09:50.160 these people I think they just it doesn't seem to 0:09:50.320 --> 0:09:51.160 have an impact that well. 0:09:51.160 --> 0:09:54.240 No, so we there was a moment a few weeks 0:09:54.240 --> 0:09:57.640 ago when the US decided to rejoin the Global Coalition 0:09:58.000 --> 0:10:00.880 and sanction Luke Oil and Rasneft. Those were literally the 0:10:00.920 --> 0:10:03.760 first sanctions that the Trump administration has put on Russia's 0:10:03.800 --> 0:10:07.480 since they took office in January. They have made a 0:10:07.520 --> 0:10:10.920 difference because they, in doing so, put India and China 0:10:11.040 --> 0:10:13.920 on notice that if you continue to buy, you may 0:10:13.960 --> 0:10:17.120 have issues. Now, follow through is not necessarily a strength 0:10:17.160 --> 0:10:20.319 of this administration on this issue, but you have seen 0:10:20.400 --> 0:10:23.960 a reduction in barrels per day being sold. It is 0:10:24.080 --> 0:10:27.000 beginning to hit the Russian economy. But when you look 0:10:27.000 --> 0:10:29.439 at things like you know, Orbon coming to the White 0:10:29.440 --> 0:10:31.840 House asking for an exemption, depending on who you ask, 0:10:31.920 --> 0:10:36.320 indefinite or a year like that kind of doesn't help 0:10:36.400 --> 0:10:39.960 the argument necessarily, But they are moving the needle. The 0:10:40.000 --> 0:10:44.319 Biden administration was very reluctant to touch energy, probably too reluctant. 0:10:44.360 --> 0:10:47.520 The Trump administration has waited way too long to re engage. 0:10:47.800 --> 0:10:49.800 But now that they have, they have to follow through 0:10:49.840 --> 0:10:52.000 and actually enforce the existing sanctions. 0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:55.640 I've got a project right now John McCrae, the iconic 0:10:55.679 --> 0:10:58.240 British author. I'm reading each of his books, trying to 0:10:58.240 --> 0:11:00.200 go back and get a first edition evident all of 0:11:00.200 --> 0:11:02.920 a good time. I'm on the looking glass war right now, 0:11:03.040 --> 0:11:05.720 right after Spio came in from the cold, what's the 0:11:05.920 --> 0:11:10.240 Russian relationship with the continent? Not so much in terms 0:11:10.240 --> 0:11:14.200 of MI five and spying, but what's the Russian relationship 0:11:14.559 --> 0:11:18.640 commercially with Europe right now that we don't see. 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:23.920 There's still trade. There's trade for nuclear fuel things like uranium. 0:11:24.200 --> 0:11:27.680 There's still lng that they're weaning off. I think January one, 0:11:27.800 --> 0:11:30.040 twenty seven was the date they pushed forward in the 0:11:30.120 --> 0:11:33.600 last round of sanctions that the European Commission passed. There 0:11:33.679 --> 0:11:36.240 is still trade like it is not dead. And the 0:11:36.320 --> 0:11:38.200 challenge is there's still a lot of goods that are 0:11:38.200 --> 0:11:41.480 transshipped over land borders into Russia. We have an automotive 0:11:41.559 --> 0:11:44.439 client that will go nameless that saw like a two 0:11:44.520 --> 0:11:47.760 hundred percent increase in cars being sold to a country 0:11:47.760 --> 0:11:50.640 bordering Russia and said that without irony, it's like you 0:11:51.240 --> 0:11:53.960 see what has happened here, Like the cars are being 0:11:54.000 --> 0:11:57.560 shipped across the border. Countries like Lafia have actually stepped 0:11:57.600 --> 0:12:00.920 up their efforts to literally block physical movement of goods 0:12:00.960 --> 0:12:05.840 from Europe and too Russia. But there is still trade. 0:12:05.880 --> 0:12:08.120 It is not down to nothing like that. That much 0:12:08.200 --> 0:12:08.600 is clear. 0:12:08.920 --> 0:12:11.960 Two great skill sets at Oliver Wyman, Hugh von stein 0:12:12.080 --> 0:12:15.000 Is with his vice chair and Daniel Tannema'm partner here 0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:19.120 that today on sanctions and here's just great financial expertise 0:12:19.160 --> 0:12:22.800 as well, Passueny Worldwide with Hugh von Steiners and. 0:12:23.200 --> 0:12:26.560 C with some hindsight here, how does the average Britain 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:29.760 view Brexit these days? And is it still a talking point? 0:12:29.760 --> 0:12:32.800 Does it come up in a pub on a Friday evening? 0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:36.000 So so okay, So there's two answers this. If you 0:12:36.000 --> 0:12:38.080 look at the polls, there is some bars remorse, so 0:12:38.120 --> 0:12:42.160 the majority of the population now have have regrets. But 0:12:42.240 --> 0:12:43.719 I think this is more like thinking a head to 0:12:43.760 --> 0:12:46.520 Thanksgiving about what are the topics which shouldn't come around. 0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:47.000 The dining table. 0:12:47.120 --> 0:12:49.520 So still that's still one of these topics which wow, 0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:52.880 people put below the table iff until the fourth class 0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:53.520 of wine. 0:12:53.760 --> 0:12:57.520 You're usually qualified on this, Hugh von Steiners, should the 0:12:57.600 --> 0:13:01.800 Fed enjoy the descent of the Bank of England Bank 0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:05.440 of England recently five to four unheard of at the Fed, 0:13:05.480 --> 0:13:08.079 we would never see that. And you know, I'm working 0:13:08.120 --> 0:13:11.360 with Governor Kearney now running a small nation to the north. 0:13:12.600 --> 0:13:16.000 My draw Canadians in first place. I believe q von 0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:18.880 stein is just as simple as I can. The descent 0:13:18.960 --> 0:13:21.120 that we've learned at the Bank of England is at 0:13:21.120 --> 0:13:22.520 a constructive exercise. 0:13:23.280 --> 0:13:24.240 That's a really good question. 0:13:24.240 --> 0:13:27.360 I think it speaks to just how difficult the setup 0:13:27.559 --> 0:13:31.520 is because you've got sluggish growth, as you've just said, Thomas, 0:13:31.559 --> 0:13:34.640 you want low rates, but inflation keeps picking up ahead 0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:36.880 and that's partly actually a function of breaks it, but 0:13:36.880 --> 0:13:39.440 it's a partly function of other import markets as well. 0:13:39.480 --> 0:13:42.280 So I can see why the committee is really stuck 0:13:42.280 --> 0:13:45.440 and challenged. I don't think you'll get quite the same 0:13:45.480 --> 0:13:47.520 degree of dissent over here because you don't have the 0:13:47.520 --> 0:13:51.439 same difference and fundamentals. But I think it's it's sort 0:13:51.440 --> 0:13:53.480 of healthy, but you know it probably speaks to the 0:13:53.480 --> 0:13:55.720 problem rather than the committee. 0:13:55.240 --> 0:13:57.560 People are really begging for that to a great except 0:13:57.640 --> 0:14:02.480 one final question, Dan Tannembaham Hardwire in to the bonus 0:14:02.600 --> 0:14:06.800 joy of Autumnal twenty twenty five Global Wall Street. 0:14:07.200 --> 0:14:08.600 It's nuts out there. 0:14:09.040 --> 0:14:12.880 I mean, it's a boom Wall Street economy. Exactly how 0:14:13.000 --> 0:14:16.440 much is you know, the real estate of Greater New 0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:20.000 York to explode a higher here with all that money 0:14:20.040 --> 0:14:22.480 coming in to New York Wall Street. 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:26.400 I don't know where you're going with this one. 0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:30.400 I mean, I do thought Hampton's gonna go up springing 0:14:30.480 --> 0:14:32.720 into Samptons has seen record pricing. 0:14:33.280 --> 0:14:33.960 We want to hear it. 0:14:34.080 --> 0:14:36.720 So I don't know if that means people are migrating 0:14:36.840 --> 0:14:39.160 east on a permanent basis or if people have just 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:41.800 rediscovered the beauty of the Hampton's and the off season. 0:14:41.880 --> 0:14:45.360 With your experience, it's a boom Wall Street economy, right, 0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:48.280 it does seem that, But I mean, what does it 0:14:48.320 --> 0:14:49.880 take to flip it the other way? 0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:53.520 Like if the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs, for instance, 0:14:53.600 --> 0:14:55.560 how does the market react to that. They've been pretty 0:14:55.600 --> 0:14:58.240 muted to some of these broader events and what that. 0:14:58.640 --> 0:15:00.360 Call and to Supreme Court's gonna do. 0:15:01.720 --> 0:15:04.880 I'm not on Cawshier poly market, but I feel pretty reasonable, 0:15:05.800 --> 0:15:09.400 reasonably comfortable that they're going to overturn the and uphold 0:15:09.480 --> 0:15:12.720 the prior decisions that the IPA tariffs are shot. 0:15:12.800 --> 0:15:15.400 Last word is is the city enjoying the Wall Street 0:15:15.400 --> 0:15:16.920 bomb that we see in New York. 0:15:17.960 --> 0:15:18.840 Nowhere near as much? 0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:18.960 No? 0:15:19.160 --> 0:15:22.240 And I think actually there's because there's We've alwaysly got 0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:24.840 concerns about housing taxes about to come through in two 0:15:24.840 --> 0:15:25.320 weeks time. 0:15:25.760 --> 0:15:28.360 So I know the housing market, you get a bargain. 0:15:28.440 --> 0:15:31.000 In fact, the number of Americans Tom when you're coming 0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:33.400 over to buy your John McCarey's give a house at 0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:33.920 the same time. 0:15:34.960 --> 0:15:36.880 It's just, it's just, it's. 0:15:36.760 --> 0:15:39.480 Just I read the Telegraph, I read the Times. It's 0:15:39.760 --> 0:15:42.440 I read an article on the BBC yesterday and the 0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:46.400 Times of London. It was incomp I couldn't understand it. 0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:50.120 I literally tried to understand what's going on there. It's 0:15:50.240 --> 0:15:52.520 nuts over there is everybody gonna. 0:15:52.360 --> 0:15:54.240 Leave if they put through this tax regime. 0:15:55.640 --> 0:15:58.920 So we've already seen a significant wave of nondoms. In 0:15:59.000 --> 0:16:01.960 other words, non Brea too had a special tax status 0:16:02.400 --> 0:16:04.720 and you know, if I go to events in Milan 0:16:04.960 --> 0:16:07.560 or Middle East, I mean, there's plenty of folk hoop 0:16:07.560 --> 0:16:09.680 who've departed, and it looks it's a bit like the 0:16:09.720 --> 0:16:11.760 debate you've had recently in New York. The tax base 0:16:11.880 --> 0:16:14.400 is very geared towards the top one percent, so we've 0:16:14.440 --> 0:16:17.480 already seen a stream of people leave. I don't I 0:16:17.520 --> 0:16:20.120 think though now these taxes are more for middle classes 0:16:20.160 --> 0:16:22.320 and that's going to be tougher. But you're you're also 0:16:22.360 --> 0:16:23.800 seeing some of the young, the you know, the under 0:16:23.800 --> 0:16:26.200 twenty five's move too, So I don't think this is 0:16:26.280 --> 0:16:29.120 nineteen seventies. There's no any like that, you know, but 0:16:29.160 --> 0:16:31.520 you know, but that's the parable. But it's it's definitely 0:16:31.520 --> 0:16:34.600 getting It's a This is the topic of the dinner tables. 0:16:34.680 --> 0:16:34.880 Dan. 0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:36.840 One final question, Are you moving to Milan? 0:16:37.120 --> 0:16:41.120 No, No, I'm staying. We just finished a long overdue renovation. 0:16:42.080 --> 0:16:44.720 I am long in New York regardless of what's happened 0:16:44.760 --> 0:16:45.440 in the last week. 0:16:45.520 --> 0:16:47.960 So anyway, Tannemum, thank you so much. 0:16:47.960 --> 0:16:51.280 With Oliver Wyman von Steinas, thank you for visiting from 0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:55.400 the United Kingdom. Venstinas and tann Obama of Oliver Wyman together. 0:16:55.520 --> 0:16:56.840 I love doing that here. 0:16:57.080 --> 0:16:59.760 The conversation is what we try to do with these 0:16:59.760 --> 0:17:03.040 two gentlemen of great expertise and sanctions and of course 0:17:03.160 --> 0:17:05.640 in European and global finance. 0:17:06.280 --> 0:17:07.040 Stay with us. 0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:10.480 More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 0:17:17.720 --> 0:17:21.320 You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 0:17:21.400 --> 0:17:24.520 weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 0:17:24.640 --> 0:17:28.320 Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 0:17:28.440 --> 0:17:29.840 watch us live on YouTube. 0:17:29.880 --> 0:17:30.680 Govery shutdown. 0:17:30.760 --> 0:17:33.800 Let's do economics, Blorena or Rich joins us on Chief 0:17:33.800 --> 0:17:36.240 you us economists the Tiro prices, we get the market 0:17:36.280 --> 0:17:40.040 open today, Blurina, How blind are you at Tiro price 0:17:40.080 --> 0:17:42.639 when you go to a meeting with Sebastian Page and 0:17:42.680 --> 0:17:45.720 the other beasts? Where are you getting your information from 0:17:45.800 --> 0:17:47.440 your belief, your conviction? 0:17:49.720 --> 0:17:56.680 Lucky for me, Bloomberg published this alternative data charts and 0:17:56.800 --> 0:18:00.639 tables and so on, so I'm not flying so blind anymore. Also, 0:18:00.720 --> 0:18:03.879 lucky for me, we are a big fundamentals house with 0:18:03.960 --> 0:18:08.159 bottoms up analysis from our credit and equity analysts, so 0:18:08.200 --> 0:18:11.080 we're getting a lot of live information. It's just the 0:18:11.200 --> 0:18:14.399 job has become harder because we're not relying on the 0:18:14.480 --> 0:18:17.000 same things that we used to feed the. 0:18:17.040 --> 0:18:18.760 Models in the past. 0:18:18.800 --> 0:18:23.240 But what your question is, what are the private sector 0:18:23.359 --> 0:18:26.840 data telling us. We had seen some encouraging news from 0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:31.879 ADP that weakness in labor demand was stabilizing in October 0:18:31.920 --> 0:18:35.480 and that we could hope for improvements going forward. The 0:18:35.520 --> 0:18:39.320 ism employment in this is we're pointing in the same direction. 0:18:39.720 --> 0:18:42.719 So I think I'm still leaning on that as my thesis. 0:18:43.040 --> 0:18:47.040 But today's weekly data on ADP, which showed a decline 0:18:47.200 --> 0:18:49.600 for the week of October twenty five, was a bit 0:18:49.600 --> 0:18:52.760 of a setback. Now when I'm talking to investors and 0:18:52.800 --> 0:18:57.960 Sebastian Page, what I'm emphasizing is that October will be 0:18:58.119 --> 0:19:03.040 really noisy. It will be actively vity spending. Employment numbers 0:19:03.119 --> 0:19:06.119 will be affected by the government shutdown. We might not 0:19:06.280 --> 0:19:09.320 even have its ability into price data because it's too 0:19:09.440 --> 0:19:14.960 late to collect CPI data anymore. But we'll look at November, 0:19:15.000 --> 0:19:19.400 we'll look at December to gauge the trend of the economy. 0:19:19.440 --> 0:19:22.760 I remain still optimistic about the path going forward, and 0:19:22.840 --> 0:19:24.360 we can discuss together why. 0:19:24.200 --> 0:19:25.600 That is so. 0:19:26.240 --> 0:19:28.800 Blarena, do you have a sense of if the government 0:19:28.800 --> 0:19:31.600 that does open in the next few days, how it 0:19:31.640 --> 0:19:35.080 will release the data to the marketplaces or do you 0:19:35.119 --> 0:19:37.040 have any sense of when that will occur, how that 0:19:37.080 --> 0:19:38.879 will occur right. 0:19:38.760 --> 0:19:42.680 This is a very important question right now because essentially 0:19:42.720 --> 0:19:45.600 what we want to know is how much information will 0:19:45.640 --> 0:19:49.880 the FED have before it's December tenth meeting. So let's 0:19:49.920 --> 0:19:53.000 see the government. If the government opens later this week. 0:19:53.080 --> 0:19:56.280 I expect that both BLSS, Census BA, they will all 0:19:56.320 --> 0:20:01.000 release a new data schedule once they have gauged how 0:20:01.040 --> 0:20:03.159 much time it will take them to play catch up. 0:20:03.560 --> 0:20:07.639 I think we should get pretty quickly the September Employment 0:20:07.760 --> 0:20:11.439 report because that would have been already prepared before the 0:20:11.480 --> 0:20:13.960