1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:19,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Hello and welcome to 2 00:00:19,040 --> 00:00:21,080 Speaker 1: another episode of The Odd Laws podcast. 3 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 2: I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway. 4 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:26,319 Speaker 1: Tracy, have you played around with GPT five much? 5 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:30,640 Speaker 2: Not really, I've been perplexity pills. Oh that's what your 6 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 2: main Yeah, that's my main one at the moment. But 7 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:34,840 Speaker 2: is it good? I hear mixed. 8 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:37,239 Speaker 1: I use it because I use GPT every day. It 9 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 1: does not strike me as like obviously better yeah for 10 00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:44,640 Speaker 1: my uses than like the three models, which I've been 11 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 1: very impressed by because you know, I want to establish them. 12 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:47,960 Speaker 3: No hater or anything like that. 13 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 1: But like, it did not strike me as like, oh, 14 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:50,720 Speaker 1: this is like an. 15 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:52,839 Speaker 2: Amazing Yeah, this is the thing. 16 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:54,280 Speaker 3: Step function or whatever. 17 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 2: It feels like the sort of breakthroughs awe inspiring breakthroughs 18 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:00,680 Speaker 2: are kind of behind us, and a lot of the 19 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 2: progress on the models feels very incremental at this point, 20 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:05,959 Speaker 2: even though people are spending a lot of time and 21 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:07,240 Speaker 2: resources on doing it. 22 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:09,880 Speaker 1: The one thing GPG five does prompt me and say, oh, 23 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:11,560 Speaker 1: that's a great question. Would you like to follow up 24 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:11,959 Speaker 1: more on that? 25 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:13,160 Speaker 3: But it's like does it. 26 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:16,320 Speaker 2: Say, o, Joe, you're so smart? That's such a smart question. 27 00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:17,559 Speaker 3: Say you know what it did? Say? 28 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:19,560 Speaker 1: I asked to follow up, and it started an answer 29 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 1: with love it and then love it? Do you want 30 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 1: me to look into that? 31 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:24,039 Speaker 4: Yes? 32 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 2: They are very flattering, aren't they. Actually, that's one thing 33 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:29,399 Speaker 2: I like about perplexity is it doesn't really flatter you. 34 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 2: It just spits out an answer. 35 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 1: So anyway, there's so many questions I have about AI, 36 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:36,039 Speaker 1: and we talk about the business old fair amount and 37 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:38,160 Speaker 1: video and all that stuff. We actually don't really talk 38 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:41,160 Speaker 1: that much about the pure research side as much. But 39 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 1: it's pretty important, I think, because I think a lot 40 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 1: of people would agree that if the skills are like 41 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:47,840 Speaker 1: slowing down, or if there were a wall or something 42 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 1: like that, that might change some of these business model calculations, 43 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:53,080 Speaker 1: et cetera. So I think it's good we need to 44 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 1: get an update on just sort of the state of 45 00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 1: the art the science of AI. 46 00:01:57,080 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 4: Yeah. 47 00:01:57,400 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 2: Also, it would be nice just to understand what's possible 48 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 2: in terms of the AI models and what people are 49 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 2: actually researching, what they're working towards, work like, is it 50 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:09,480 Speaker 2: mostly about price? Is it mostly about the output? Is 51 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 2: it mostly about energy use? All those things? 52 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 1: All those things, Well, I'm really excited to say we 53 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 1: have the perfect guest, someone who is an AI researcher. 54 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:19,360 Speaker 1: We're gonna be speaking with Jack Morris. He's currently about 55 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 1: to finish his PhD. 56 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 3: At Cornell in AI. 57 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 1: He's been affiliated with Meta professionally, so presumably he already 58 00:02:27,200 --> 00:02:30,080 Speaker 1: has a one hundred million dollar pay package in the bank. 59 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:32,840 Speaker 1: Now he's shaking his head, he's not that's a joke. 60 00:02:33,040 --> 00:02:36,079 Speaker 1: But Jack, thank you so much for coming on odd lots. 61 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, thanks for having me. This is gonna be fun. 62 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 1: What do you explain to me, like what you're up to, 63 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:41,239 Speaker 1: because I don't really understand how. 64 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 3: It works where people are. 65 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 1: They're at a university and they're also at a company, 66 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 1: and this isn't how it works. And much of the world, right, 67 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 1: people get their degree and then they get a job. 68 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 1: I get the impression that in the AI world it's 69 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 1: a little fuzzier in terms of one's affiliations between industry 70 00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:58,040 Speaker 1: and education and stuff like that. 71 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 4: Yeah, that's definitely true. I think might be on the 72 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:03,200 Speaker 4: way out, but I can tell you about my situation. 73 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:06,960 Speaker 4: So there's kind of a public research world and like 74 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:11,240 Speaker 4: a private research world, and all the academic institutions do 75 00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:17,400 Speaker 4: public research, and the AI labs like Open Ai, Anthropic, Google, 76 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:19,840 Speaker 4: deep Mind, they essentially do private research where they have 77 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:23,079 Speaker 4: these people in house that are running experiments and learning 78 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:25,960 Speaker 4: more about their systems, but they don't publish anything or 79 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:28,280 Speaker 4: share any of their knowledge. And so a cool thing 80 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:30,920 Speaker 4: about getting your PhD right now is you can do 81 00:03:31,080 --> 00:03:34,079 Speaker 4: research right about it and then publicize it like put 82 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 4: it online, I tweet about it. I kind of like 83 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 4: can talk to you about it. And there's a few 84 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 4: places left that will still kind of moment, we're never. 85 00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:42,720 Speaker 3: Going to hear from you again. 86 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll make sure they have a clause in my 87 00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:50,040 Speaker 4: contract that I can still talk to Joe and Tracy. 88 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 2: The all thoughts clause. Yes, that would be important. So 89 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 2: when we say AI research or an AI researcher, what 90 00:03:56,560 --> 00:04:01,480 Speaker 2: exactly does that entail? Can't the AI models just research themselves? 91 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 2: Just let them do it? 92 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, that's actually a very smart idea, and like people 93 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:08,720 Speaker 4: are really worried about that. Actually, Like if we get 94 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 4: to the point where the AI can improve itself into researching, yeah, 95 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:15,120 Speaker 4: then it sort of gets smarter and then it improves 96 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 4: themself again and it ends up being this kind of 97 00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:21,160 Speaker 4: exponential improvement that ends up with all of our demise. 98 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:24,840 Speaker 4: But I think right now it's not quite there yet. 99 00:04:25,080 --> 00:04:28,160 Speaker 4: Like maybe you can talk to CHGBT what good Yeah, 100 00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:29,960 Speaker 4: And good news for me too, because it means I 101 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:33,599 Speaker 4: can still get a degree and be gainfully employed. But 102 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 4: I think it's it's still helpful, but we still need 103 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 4: like humans to make these improvements. And in terms of 104 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:41,479 Speaker 4: what the actual day to day work looks like, I 105 00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:43,800 Speaker 4: think it really varies. Like there's some people working on 106 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:47,279 Speaker 4: trying to make the models run faster, or trying to 107 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:50,440 Speaker 4: make the hardware that runs the models run faster more efficiently. 108 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 4: There's people that try to work on the data, like 109 00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 4: what should we train on more coding problems or more 110 00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:59,600 Speaker 4: textbooks or more Reddit posts, what works best to make 111 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:01,920 Speaker 4: the model? And then there's a lot more people working 112 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:04,680 Speaker 4: on different areas of the stack, like training algorithms. I 113 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:08,240 Speaker 4: kind of have my own little niche and niche. There's 114 00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:11,760 Speaker 4: this old field of information theory from like the twentieth 115 00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:14,360 Speaker 4: century where they talk about bits like a zero or 116 00:05:14,400 --> 00:05:16,600 Speaker 4: a one is a bit and you can add them 117 00:05:16,680 --> 00:05:20,040 Speaker 4: up and have kilobytes and megabytes. And so I've been 118 00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:21,919 Speaker 4: trying to think about what that means in like the 119 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 4: chat GBT world, if you train a model on a 120 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 4: certain number of bits, how many bits does it actually learn? 121 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 4: And like can you look at the model and figure 122 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:30,599 Speaker 4: out like if you have one slice of the model, 123 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:32,600 Speaker 4: how many bits that is and stuff like that. So 124 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:34,920 Speaker 4: maybe the easiest way to explain is if you had, 125 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 4: for some god forsaken reason to use chat GBT as 126 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:40,560 Speaker 4: like a flash drive, like you had a certain set 127 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:43,080 Speaker 4: of data and it had to memorize all that data, 128 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:46,840 Speaker 4: Like how much data could it actually store? That's the 129 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 4: kind of area I've been working in. And then you know, 130 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 4: once you're there, you kind of realize we could do this, 131 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:52,800 Speaker 4: or maybe next semester, if we have time, we could 132 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:54,839 Speaker 4: try this other thing. And so there's it kind of 133 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 4: branches out and there's a lot of little problems that 134 00:05:56,920 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 4: you can try. 135 00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:01,800 Speaker 1: I mentioned GPT five fine to me, It does not 136 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:05,479 Speaker 1: strike me as like you know, because actually so the 137 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:08,360 Speaker 1: first time I use cha GPT is genuinely blown away 138 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:10,559 Speaker 1: like most people. And then actually I was pretty blown 139 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:13,600 Speaker 1: away by the three models, in part because of how 140 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 1: well they could do document search and superior to Google 141 00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 1: Search in many respects and also just the organization of 142 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:22,279 Speaker 1: a lot of unstructured data, et cetera. Like I didn't 143 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:25,720 Speaker 1: have like some oh my god wow moment with GPT five. 144 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:28,960 Speaker 1: It's like, this seems like, how do we measure whether 145 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:31,359 Speaker 1: AI is getting better all the time. 146 00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:35,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, that's that's a huge question, right. 147 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:37,200 Speaker 1: Well, let me ask you, Okay, let me ask you 148 00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:41,480 Speaker 1: actually a more specific question. How do the entities that 149 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 1: test AI models as their job or as their function? 150 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 1: What does the formal testing process look like to rank 151 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:52,480 Speaker 1: the quality of AI models? 152 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:55,240 Speaker 4: Okay, yeah, that's that's more tractable. We can we can 153 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:57,120 Speaker 4: start there, and then we can talk about three and 154 00:06:57,320 --> 00:07:01,159 Speaker 4: GPT five. So there's essentially two ways people do this 155 00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 4: kind of model evaluation. The main one is just by 156 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:08,159 Speaker 4: testing them on different data sets. So, for example, there's 157 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:10,680 Speaker 4: this data set called swee bench that's a bunch of 158 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 4: software engineering related coding problems and they all have a 159 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:18,040 Speaker 4: human written solution and tests, and so you can ask 160 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 4: GPT five, can you write the code for this and 161 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 4: then run the tests and see if it's right? And 162 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:24,360 Speaker 4: still the models are pretty bad at that. I think 163 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 4: they can do about half of them. They're very hard. 164 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 4: They're like entire days of work for professional software engineers. 165 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 4: But when a new model comes out, they can say, oh, look, 166 00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:35,360 Speaker 4: we actually got a higher score on sweet bench. And 167 00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:37,520 Speaker 4: there's a ton of different data sets like that. So 168 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:39,920 Speaker 4: when GBT five comes out, they say, you know, it's 169 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 4: better at these types of coding tests. And a big 170 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:46,760 Speaker 4: one that specifically open AI has been advocating for is math, 171 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 4: like they did the International Math Olympiad, and they said 172 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 4: essentially GBT five scored at the level of the best 173 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:59,200 Speaker 4: high school mathematicians, which is pretty cool. But you raise 174 00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:00,960 Speaker 4: a good question of how is that actually map to 175 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:03,200 Speaker 4: real world usage? And I think this is like a 176 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:06,680 Speaker 4: really hard problem that people still haven't figured out. 177 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:11,080 Speaker 2: Does anyone try to capture that sort of like genes sequah? 178 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 2: I guess when it comes to AI models, is one 179 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 2: of the tests asking it to I don't know, come 180 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:17,680 Speaker 2: up with a stupid limerick or something. 181 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, there are a lot of tests like that. There's 182 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 4: some creative writing benchmarks and some poetry related ones. But 183 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:29,080 Speaker 4: I think you point out something interesting that for example, 184 00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:32,680 Speaker 4: I mostly use Claude from Anthropic and I think Claude 185 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 4: does have this something to it that's like a little 186 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:38,960 Speaker 4: bit different, and it's very difficult to characterize. It's just 187 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:40,400 Speaker 4: sort of the way it speaks to you and the 188 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:42,760 Speaker 4: way it thinks of itself is I like it a 189 00:08:42,800 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 4: lot better, but I don't know how you would design 190 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 4: like a data set that can really capture that. The 191 00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:50,079 Speaker 4: second way they do the evaluation is by they call 192 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:53,840 Speaker 4: it it's Elo scores, like in chess. So they, for example, 193 00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:56,440 Speaker 4: ask the two models to write a limerick, and then 194 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:59,000 Speaker 4: they have humans rank which one is better, and they 195 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 4: make this kind of lat of Elo rankings for models. 196 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:05,439 Speaker 4: So I think right now Claude or GPT five or 197 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:09,440 Speaker 4: maybe the Google model is top on this ladder. 198 00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:12,680 Speaker 1: The algorithm made famous in the social network that Mark 199 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:17,080 Speaker 1: Zuckerberg used to rate the of his colleagues still the 200 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 1: workhorse model for comp evaluation. 201 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 2: That's some good trivia, Joe, very good and no comment. Well, 202 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:27,440 Speaker 2: I assume just on the hard number evaluation. People are 203 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:31,839 Speaker 2: also ranking these on data usage, energy, that sort of. 204 00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:32,240 Speaker 4: Thing as well. 205 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:35,760 Speaker 2: Right speed, speed would be a definitely. 206 00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:38,640 Speaker 4: The AI companies like to use price as a metric, 207 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 4: which is kind of interesting because there's a lot that 208 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:43,440 Speaker 4: goes on behind the scenes, including just sort of like 209 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 4: free money that drives the prices down, but they also 210 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 4: do benchmark speed, and I think you make a good 211 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:53,079 Speaker 4: point that the benchmarks can be pretty misleading, Like, for example, 212 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 4: there's a bunch of recent open source models that came 213 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 4: from different Chinese AI labs that have really, really high 214 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 4: scores on certain benchmarks, but people kind of think they're 215 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:05,680 Speaker 4: not as good for real world usage for whatever reason. 216 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:08,720 Speaker 1: I've seen people talk about this isn't part of the 217 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 1: problem with testing AI or evaluating AI. That a lot 218 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:16,959 Speaker 1: of these problems exist in the real world already, right, 219 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:19,720 Speaker 1: You see this a lot, and people are always finding this, 220 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 1: which is that here's an AI model that is amazing 221 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:27,520 Speaker 1: at math on the math Olympiad, and yet it gets 222 00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:31,280 Speaker 1: tripped up by questions like which is heavier a pound 223 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 1: of steel or two pounds of feathers, And they'll say 224 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:35,920 Speaker 1: that that's a trick question. A pound of steel weighs the 225 00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 1: same as two pounds of feathers, which is clearly like 226 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 1: it was clearly then been trained in some sense to 227 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:44,960 Speaker 1: recognize these steel versus feathers thing or whatever it is. 228 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 1: I forget if it's steel, But it also clearly can't 229 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:49,719 Speaker 1: measure whether one or. 230 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:50,480 Speaker 3: Two is bigger. 231 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:54,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, that's a really good example. I think they kind 232 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:58,720 Speaker 4: of successively include these kinds of things in more rounds 233 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 4: of training data, and so every time a new model 234 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:03,640 Speaker 4: comes out, they kind of patch little holes that appeared 235 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:06,040 Speaker 4: in the previous models. So you're pointing to this, like 236 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 4: they probably started with the classic riddle that's like a 237 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 4: pound of bricks or a pound of feathers bricks and 238 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:13,120 Speaker 4: they're equal, but then like the models got that wrong, 239 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 4: and so they added to. 240 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:19,080 Speaker 1: Something a very efficient way to achieve intelligence, like, oh yeah, 241 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:19,960 Speaker 1: we should have included that. 242 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:21,640 Speaker 3: Oh yeah, we got to include that trick. Oh yeah, 243 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:22,320 Speaker 3: we gotta have right. 244 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:26,480 Speaker 1: Like ever, like going that does not speak to me 245 00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:30,200 Speaker 1: of a line towards something that we would call anything 246 00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 1: resembling human intelligence. 247 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:35,760 Speaker 4: I definitely agree. I think one counter example is people 248 00:11:35,760 --> 00:11:37,880 Speaker 4: said this for a long time about self driving cars, 249 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:40,480 Speaker 4: Like everyone was really excited about them for a long time, 250 00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 4: and then they kind of didn't really work, like eight 251 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:45,360 Speaker 4: or so years ago, and there was this period where 252 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:47,959 Speaker 4: they were saying, oh, the models can't do green cones. 253 00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 4: We're going out there trying to take videos of green cones, 254 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:55,640 Speaker 4: and yeah, they can't do snow. I'm saying that it 255 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 4: worked for them, and so it might be possible. But 256 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:01,960 Speaker 4: in the case of language models, there's something a little 257 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 4: more interesting happening, because we now have two ways to learn. 258 00:12:06,280 --> 00:12:07,760 Speaker 4: If you guys are ready, we could we could get 259 00:12:07,760 --> 00:12:10,040 Speaker 4: into something a little technical, which I think gives you 260 00:12:10,080 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 4: some insights. So there's essentially two ways you can teach 261 00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:16,680 Speaker 4: machines to learn from data. One is called supervised learning, 262 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:19,640 Speaker 4: where the computer will copy what you did, which is 263 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:22,040 Speaker 4: like basically what we're talking about now, and the other 264 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:25,199 Speaker 4: is called reinforcement learning, where the computer just does something 265 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:27,120 Speaker 4: and then you give it a reward if it does 266 00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:30,360 Speaker 4: something well. And so for a long time, like the 267 00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:34,640 Speaker 4: original chat GBT was mostly just trained with supervised learning, 268 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 4: like it would just copy the text from all of 269 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:39,680 Speaker 4: the Internet, and so the best it could ever do 270 00:12:39,880 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 4: is emulate Reddit posts very well. And there was a 271 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:47,439 Speaker 4: tiny bit of reinforcement learning, but people didn't know how 272 00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:50,040 Speaker 4: to do it right. And then you mentioned this three model, 273 00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:52,839 Speaker 4: which is kind of in some ways like a big jump, 274 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 4: like it made the models much better at math, much 275 00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 4: better at certain things. And the way they did that 276 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:00,760 Speaker 4: is actually through reinforcement learning. Found out a way to 277 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 4: kind of like let the model think for a while 278 00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:05,280 Speaker 4: and then give it a reward when it gets the 279 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:07,600 Speaker 4: answer at the end. It's kind of scary. 280 00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:10,199 Speaker 2: Yeah, when you say give it a reward, is. 281 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:13,680 Speaker 3: It like take a cookie paying robots? 282 00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:14,120 Speaker 1: Yeah? 283 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:16,920 Speaker 2: Well no, genuinely, like what is the reward? You just 284 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:18,080 Speaker 2: tell it it did a good job. 285 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:20,199 Speaker 4: You just give it like a higher number. Okay, and 286 00:13:20,240 --> 00:13:21,559 Speaker 4: that makes you happy, all right. 287 00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:24,520 Speaker 2: I'd get a little bit worried when we're like giving 288 00:13:24,520 --> 00:13:27,520 Speaker 2: it cupcakes or something like here you go, good job. 289 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:30,240 Speaker 2: Just going back to the intro, you know, we were 290 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:32,880 Speaker 2: talking about how it feels like a lot of the 291 00:13:32,920 --> 00:13:36,520 Speaker 2: progress on AI models is a little bit more incremental, 292 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 2: and I guess it's hard to tell whether that's just 293 00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:41,840 Speaker 2: personal bias because now we're used to them and the 294 00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:44,720 Speaker 2: sort of wow moment has passed. But what does it 295 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:47,440 Speaker 2: feel like to you in terms of improvements? Are we 296 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:52,040 Speaker 2: seeing the improvement cycle accelerate or decelerate at this point? 297 00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:55,000 Speaker 4: I think it's kind of like the market, where it's 298 00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:57,679 Speaker 4: like always it gets faster for a little while, and 299 00:13:57,679 --> 00:14:00,560 Speaker 4: then it feels like things have slowed down and the 300 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:02,920 Speaker 4: progress is never quite in the areas that you expect 301 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:06,720 Speaker 4: as one example, people really thought this year was the 302 00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:10,680 Speaker 4: year when the assistance would start being able to act 303 00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:13,560 Speaker 4: like actual assistants, like the Year of agents. People actually 304 00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:15,800 Speaker 4: coined that term, I think, like the year of agents, 305 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 4: and it really it didn't happen for whatever reason. Maybe 306 00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:21,160 Speaker 4: it will in the next three months. But the agents 307 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:23,200 Speaker 4: are still pretty bad the ones that you can use. 308 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 4: But they did get way better at competitive math, Like 309 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 4: now they can do these like world class proofs that 310 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:33,080 Speaker 4: they couldn't do before. So it's almost unpredictable, like which 311 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:36,120 Speaker 4: areas the AI will kind of conquer next, But it 312 00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 4: does feel like progress is continuing. 313 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 1: Actually, what happened with agents? I've never had a successful 314 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:45,840 Speaker 1: agent experience, even basic things like come up with a 315 00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 1: list of every past odd Lots guests, yeah and put 316 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:52,120 Speaker 1: it in a file or something like that, which just 317 00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:55,200 Speaker 1: there's an RSS feed that exists for odd Lots. This 318 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 1: should be ray stick for it all around, and then 319 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:00,880 Speaker 1: something will happen or it'll get lazy. Here's like here's 320 00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:04,560 Speaker 1: fifteen and what is actually this is thought leaders love 321 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 1: this stuff. They love to talking about the agents. So 322 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:09,720 Speaker 1: what actually happened with agents? Maybe they'll get there, but 323 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 1: what do you use to what is the roadblock there. 324 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:14,680 Speaker 4: I don't think there's any conceptual roadblock, Like there's no 325 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:17,400 Speaker 4: reason why you couldn't collect data for that and train 326 00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:20,600 Speaker 4: them either in a supervised way or using reinforcement learning. 327 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:23,520 Speaker 4: It just hasn't happened yet. So I think maybe behind 328 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 4: the scenes it turned out that the problem was harder 329 00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 4: than people thought, Like getting data from all those scenarios 330 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:31,640 Speaker 4: is really hard. And there have been some stories from 331 00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:34,040 Speaker 4: like people that I've heard of that found these little 332 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:37,840 Speaker 4: companies in San Francisco and they build these tiny environments 333 00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:41,240 Speaker 4: for the AI labs to do reinforcement learning on for agents, 334 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:44,000 Speaker 4: like for example, doing a calendar. They'll build like a 335 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:47,120 Speaker 4: little calendar app, but make it have rewards so you 336 00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:49,440 Speaker 4: can do reinforcement learning, and they can just sell that 337 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:51,760 Speaker 4: for like hundreds of thousands of dollars. So I think 338 00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 4: the progress is ongoing behind the scenes, Like there's a 339 00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 4: whole ecosystem built around it. It just hasn't really manifested 340 00:15:58,080 --> 00:15:59,400 Speaker 4: in the products that we use. 341 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:02,880 Speaker 2: I was going to ask, how much of the difficulty is, 342 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:06,360 Speaker 2: you know, the actual development of the models, the thinking part, 343 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 2: versus just getting them to plug in seamlessly with other applications. 344 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:15,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the second thing is probably the biggest 345 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 4: barrier in terms of time, Like it just takes a 346 00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 4: really long time to figure out what data you need 347 00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:23,160 Speaker 4: and collect it properly and actually train the models on 348 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:25,680 Speaker 4: that data. But at the same time, there are people 349 00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 4: like me who are trying to work on better like 350 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:31,400 Speaker 4: conceptual frameworks for training the models. So to go back 351 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:37,280 Speaker 4: to the three example, doing reinforcement learning on CHATGBT, like 352 00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:40,240 Speaker 4: that seems to me like a huge breakthrough, Like we 353 00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 4: didn't know how to do that before. It unlocks all 354 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:45,800 Speaker 4: sorts of doors and ways to train the models. So 355 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 4: even if maybe you don't think that model was that 356 00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:50,880 Speaker 4: much better than the previous one, it seems like it 357 00:16:50,960 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 4: will give us huge improvements in the future. 358 00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:14,879 Speaker 1: So you mentioned at the intro that it's possible, hopefully 359 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:16,919 Speaker 1: you'll get a close but you might end up in 360 00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:19,879 Speaker 1: a situation which you go to work for some frontier 361 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:22,800 Speaker 1: AI lab and we never hear from you again, or 362 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:25,480 Speaker 1: you just post cryptic tweets like oh no idea, what's coming, 363 00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:26,680 Speaker 1: Oh it's gonna. 364 00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 3: Be so over or whatever. Yeah, an the death Star, Yeah, 365 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:30,560 Speaker 3: it's very annoying. 366 00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 1: The way they all tweet, it's possible talk to us 367 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:36,400 Speaker 1: about like why not work on an open source project? 368 00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:38,880 Speaker 1: And this is of course when people talk about deep 369 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:40,680 Speaker 1: seek and a lot of the Chinese models that the 370 00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:43,520 Speaker 1: US competes with, a lot of those are open source. 371 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:46,960 Speaker 1: Presumably you could keep coming on odd lads over and 372 00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:50,639 Speaker 1: over again, why like what is even the case for 373 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:52,960 Speaker 1: the best and the brightest to work on a closed 374 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 1: source frontier models. 375 00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:58,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a really hard question, Like I've I've struggled 376 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:00,399 Speaker 4: with this in my own personal decision making. I was 377 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:03,080 Speaker 4: originally thinking, Oh, I'd love to become a professor and 378 00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:07,479 Speaker 4: mentor younger students and get a whole like group of 379 00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:11,160 Speaker 4: these ideas going and start working on similar related problems 380 00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:12,920 Speaker 4: to the stuff I was talking about. And I still 381 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:15,639 Speaker 4: think that would be fun. But there's a big gap 382 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:18,520 Speaker 4: in terms of the things we can do at Cornell 383 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:20,600 Speaker 4: and the things that you can do at open AI. 384 00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:24,919 Speaker 4: Like they just have like crazy infrastructure for training models 385 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:29,480 Speaker 4: really easily and data and a ton of really good data. 386 00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:32,720 Speaker 4: And so I think as that gap has widened, I've 387 00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:34,760 Speaker 4: felt like a lot of what we're doing is like 388 00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:38,080 Speaker 4: kind of devising these toy scenarios where we can study 389 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:41,240 Speaker 4: interesting things, but I feel a bit disconnected from the 390 00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:45,399 Speaker 4: real like progress of humanity. You know, like if you 391 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:47,879 Speaker 4: really agree that this is like the biggest problem of 392 00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 4: our time. I don't want to say it's like the 393 00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:52,439 Speaker 4: Manhattan Project, but like, what's more like trying to go 394 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:54,680 Speaker 4: to the Moon in the sixties? The space race. It's 395 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:56,720 Speaker 4: kind of like a space race going on in these 396 00:18:56,760 --> 00:18:58,840 Speaker 4: different private labs. You want to be a part of it. 397 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:02,320 Speaker 4: Like there's crazy energy that it has huge implications for 398 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:05,880 Speaker 4: the future of society. So I think I am interested 399 00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:09,760 Speaker 4: in participating in that. My big question is like, if 400 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:13,560 Speaker 4: you think that the reinforcement learning thing was the most 401 00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 4: recent big scientific breakthrough, like oh one, and then three, 402 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:20,440 Speaker 4: what's next? And then like where will that actually be happening. 403 00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:22,800 Speaker 4: That's kind of what I'm thinking about right now. 404 00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:26,280 Speaker 2: Just on the data point. I was reading your excellent 405 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:29,920 Speaker 2: substack and you argue that there's probably an upper bound 406 00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:33,320 Speaker 2: to what you can get out of a given data set, 407 00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:38,440 Speaker 2: and at some point, like the training starts to look 408 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:42,520 Speaker 2: pretty similar, right, and the data becomes the differentiating factor. 409 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:48,000 Speaker 2: How important are data sets to AI research? And I guess, like, 410 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:50,359 Speaker 2: how do you go about finding really cool ones and 411 00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 2: what's left. Because I feel like, you know, using the 412 00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 2: space race analogy, everyone has been running so fast on this. 413 00:19:57,600 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 2: It feels like all the data sets must have been 414 00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:02,159 Speaker 2: a explored by now, but I guess they haven't. 415 00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:05,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I think this is really getting to the 416 00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:08,280 Speaker 4: heart of what people are trying to figure out right 417 00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:11,880 Speaker 4: now in all these different labs. So I think you're 418 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:15,800 Speaker 4: pretty much right that all of the public data sets 419 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:21,159 Speaker 4: we have are pretty much used to TRAIN three or 420 00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 4: GPT five or whatever. If there is a really good 421 00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 4: website that should have been scraped and downloaded into the model, 422 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:30,320 Speaker 4: it should probably be used. But there apparently is a 423 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:33,679 Speaker 4: much larger amount of private data than public data. I mean, 424 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:36,959 Speaker 4: you all work for Bloomberg, so you're probably intimately familiar 425 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:39,119 Speaker 4: with this. But if you think about the different AI 426 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,639 Speaker 4: labs that exist, they actually now do kind of have 427 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:45,600 Speaker 4: different data related modes. Like XAI, they have all of 428 00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:49,280 Speaker 4: the Twitter data that's basically impossible to get elsewhere. CHADGBT 429 00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:52,480 Speaker 4: now has all of the user conversations with CHATGBT, which 430 00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:55,040 Speaker 4: are really useful. Claude has a ton of coding data 431 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:57,720 Speaker 4: that other people don't have. Google has YouTube, which some 432 00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:00,760 Speaker 4: people think might be like the next source of making 433 00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 4: really good models, and none of those things are really included, 434 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:06,120 Speaker 4: at least not much in today's models. 435 00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:07,680 Speaker 3: This is really important. 436 00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:11,920 Speaker 1: Like once a lab builds some sort of base, whether 437 00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:16,160 Speaker 1: it's anthropic encoding or maybe cursor encoding, even though they're 438 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:19,960 Speaker 1: not like a core lab, et cetera, like they become 439 00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:22,920 Speaker 1: a source of their own data that literally nobody else has. 440 00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,320 Speaker 4: Yeah, actually Cursor is a great example. So they are 441 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:29,320 Speaker 4: very technical, they have really smart people. They're very small, 442 00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 4: so they haven't quite scaled to at least in terms 443 00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:33,400 Speaker 4: of the number of people. 444 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:34,960 Speaker 1: But I think about this like every time I was like, 445 00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:37,000 Speaker 1: when I've played with this is like this is good, 446 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:40,040 Speaker 1: this is bad. I'm constantly teaching their model to get better, 447 00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:41,480 Speaker 1: right right, right right. 448 00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:43,479 Speaker 4: They're in a problem where they have the data. They 449 00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:46,000 Speaker 4: just have to take the right algorithms and scale it 450 00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:47,879 Speaker 4: up to train the model to be as good as 451 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,720 Speaker 4: Claude is. But that actually seems a lot more feasible 452 00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:53,080 Speaker 4: than other companies that have no data and want to 453 00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 4: train good models, even if they know how, it seems 454 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 4: very difficult. 455 00:21:56,640 --> 00:22:01,439 Speaker 2: How closely are AI researchers working or talking to I 456 00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:04,840 Speaker 2: guess other parts of the AI ecosystem, so you know, 457 00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:09,159 Speaker 2: chip makers, maybe cloud providers, that sort of thing. Is 458 00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 2: there a lot of dialogue or not really. 459 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:14,240 Speaker 4: I think certain people talk all the time to the 460 00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:17,720 Speaker 4: chip makers, Like there's a big community of people. You know, 461 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:21,080 Speaker 4: the AI models all run on GPUs, and there are 462 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:23,040 Speaker 4: a lot of people that are getting really good at 463 00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:26,760 Speaker 4: writing fast GPU code. It's called kernels, and all those 464 00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:29,280 Speaker 4: people who work on kernels talk to the chip makers 465 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:32,040 Speaker 4: all the time. Like Amazon's making their own chips, Google 466 00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 4: has their own chip. Now all the hyperscalers are making chips, 467 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:36,919 Speaker 4: and I think they're all trying to talk to the 468 00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:39,240 Speaker 4: people that actually write the fast code that runs on 469 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:41,480 Speaker 4: chips to figure out I think they call it hardware 470 00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:43,919 Speaker 4: software code design, Like everyone's kind of getting together and 471 00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:45,560 Speaker 4: trying to figure out what the best way is to 472 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:47,639 Speaker 4: design the next round of GPUs. 473 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:52,760 Speaker 1: So you mentioned, okay, Google might have an advantage because 474 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:56,199 Speaker 1: it owns YouTube and there's just tons of obviously just 475 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 1: tons of. 476 00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 3: Data in there. 477 00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:00,560 Speaker 1: So one way you could get access to the YouTube 478 00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:03,439 Speaker 1: data is to literally be Google and own it. But 479 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:06,640 Speaker 1: another way that maybe you could get access to YouTube 480 00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 1: data is operate in China where there are no laws 481 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,320 Speaker 1: about this type of thing, or no, they're not beholding 482 00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:16,920 Speaker 1: the US copyright and just sort of scrape at all. Again, 483 00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:20,360 Speaker 1: since most of the Chinese AI labs are open to source, 484 00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:24,560 Speaker 1: why isn't this just a huge advantage for the Chinese 485 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:27,359 Speaker 1: labs that they're really not going to be Hey, open 486 00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:29,080 Speaker 1: AI they get super at the New York Times all 487 00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:32,440 Speaker 1: these deepseek isn't having to deal with all these headaches? 488 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:38,919 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the American AI labs will probably do 489 00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:41,720 Speaker 4: things behind the scenes that they wouldn't tell you about 490 00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:45,439 Speaker 4: to get good data solution. Just don't so Yeah, Like 491 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:48,680 Speaker 4: I think they wouldn't release the models that are potentially 492 00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,639 Speaker 4: trained on scraped or copyrighted data. But if that's the 493 00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:55,000 Speaker 4: way to get better math Olympiad scores, then people will 494 00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:57,560 Speaker 4: I think I would guess do that. But you're right 495 00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,159 Speaker 4: that like the Chinese, the Chinese model makers can to 496 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,480 Speaker 4: sort of take all the books that they can pirate 497 00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:04,600 Speaker 4: from the Internet and train on them and they're not 498 00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:06,920 Speaker 4: violating any laws and they can release the model to 499 00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:09,520 Speaker 4: the public and it's all fine, which is honestly great 500 00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,800 Speaker 4: for us because then people like me could probably download 501 00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,240 Speaker 4: a model that's better than we would get otherwise. 502 00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:18,400 Speaker 2: What was your impression of deep Seek when it came out? 503 00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:19,080 Speaker 2: And now? 504 00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:24,000 Speaker 4: I was pretty surprised at how much of a splash 505 00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:26,920 Speaker 4: they made. The model is really good, and I think 506 00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:30,639 Speaker 4: a lot of people are building on it, including me, 507 00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:33,399 Speaker 4: and like most people that are at AI companies that 508 00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:36,639 Speaker 4: aren't super super big are building on deep Seek. But 509 00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:40,960 Speaker 4: it was surprising, like what a huge deal it was 510 00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:43,280 Speaker 4: to people, like my mom's asking me about deep Seek. 511 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,439 Speaker 4: I think my grandma knew about deep Seek, and she 512 00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:47,040 Speaker 4: barely knew about chat GBT. 513 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:50,800 Speaker 2: So that's when you know it's gone mainstream when starts. 514 00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:53,399 Speaker 4: Asking you and there was nothing else so far. I 515 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:55,879 Speaker 4: think in the AI space that's made quite that much news. 516 00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,200 Speaker 1: But it sounds like what you're saying is that it's 517 00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:01,520 Speaker 1: a very good model, but that on the actual specs 518 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 1: from your perspective, it didn't quite deserve is much attention, 519 00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,680 Speaker 1: Like it was good, but like in your view, it's 520 00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:11,720 Speaker 1: not so good that everyone needed to be talking about it. 521 00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:16,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's really useful because they released all 522 00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:19,080 Speaker 4: their model weights and they said exactly what they did 523 00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:21,119 Speaker 4: to train it. Although they didn't say what the data was, 524 00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:24,240 Speaker 4: but it gave me the impression of there maybe six 525 00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:26,840 Speaker 4: to twelve months behind the American AI labs in terms 526 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,040 Speaker 4: of how well they can do the training and stuff. 527 00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:31,560 Speaker 4: But it still was a pretty big update for me 528 00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:34,080 Speaker 4: to know that, Wow, there are one hundred people that 529 00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:36,520 Speaker 4: don't have PhDs working at a Chinese hedge fund that 530 00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:39,320 Speaker 4: are training these like cutting edge models. Like it is 531 00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:41,480 Speaker 4: incredible and they work very hard, they're very good. 532 00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:00,119 Speaker 2: Do you have pressure or do you feel pressure or 533 00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:05,280 Speaker 2: do AI researchers in general fuel pressure to consider monetization 534 00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:08,680 Speaker 2: when they're researching things or is it you know, mostly 535 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,960 Speaker 2: still curiosity driven, that sort of old school Silicon Valley 536 00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:15,399 Speaker 2: we're improving the world kind of thing. Or is it 537 00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:19,280 Speaker 2: much more mercenary given that all of these big companies 538 00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:21,680 Speaker 2: seem to be competing in the same space. 539 00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:27,240 Speaker 4: Yeah. I think that over time it's gotten harder and 540 00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:30,400 Speaker 4: harder to do things that are just like cool ideas 541 00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:35,320 Speaker 4: or seem cute but don't have any necessary application, and 542 00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:37,639 Speaker 4: things are getting closer and closer to products, you know, 543 00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:40,720 Speaker 4: even like the language models that power CHAGBT. I was 544 00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:43,720 Speaker 4: working in those before CHAGBT, and they had some uses, 545 00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:47,439 Speaker 4: but also they're intellectually interesting and like fun to build. 546 00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:50,560 Speaker 4: But now if I came up with a better way 547 00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:54,360 Speaker 4: to train CHAGBT, that's like a multi billion dollar innovation. 548 00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:55,440 Speaker 2: The stakes are higher. 549 00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:57,760 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'd be like an asset to like the United 550 00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:00,120 Speaker 4: States government or something if I knew how to do that. 551 00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,800 Speaker 4: So I guess it depends on what kind of problems 552 00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:05,560 Speaker 4: you work on. Like, I'm more interested in understanding how 553 00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:10,080 Speaker 4: things work, so it becomes a bit less financially dire. 554 00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:14,440 Speaker 1: I think that six to twelve month gap between what 555 00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,640 Speaker 1: was that that was a January deep segment. Yeah, everyone 556 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:20,320 Speaker 1: was in December that they first got at attention, then 557 00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:22,399 Speaker 1: for some reason really hit in January. Is that a 558 00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:26,160 Speaker 1: sustainable gap? Is there something either in access to data, 559 00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:30,240 Speaker 1: access to talent, access to compute, access to chips, whatever, 560 00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:34,800 Speaker 1: access to energy that in your view will allow us 561 00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:37,680 Speaker 1: frontier lebs to maintain some sort of six to twelve 562 00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:38,720 Speaker 1: month gap for a while. 563 00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:41,560 Speaker 4: It's pretty unclear to me. I think there are different 564 00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:43,920 Speaker 4: beliefs you can have. You can believe that the ideas 565 00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:46,959 Speaker 4: and the people are really the thing that differentiates the models, 566 00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:49,160 Speaker 4: and in that case, I think we haven't so far 567 00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:52,920 Speaker 4: seen a lot of like the top USAI researchers going 568 00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:56,800 Speaker 4: to work at Chinese labs, so that seems stable. You 569 00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:59,080 Speaker 4: could think that chips really matter, and in that case 570 00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:02,360 Speaker 4: the chip race is really happening between big American companies. 571 00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:04,960 Speaker 4: Like I think, actually China has a pretty big deficit 572 00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:08,440 Speaker 4: coming up in terms of like the GPUs we're exporting, 573 00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:10,919 Speaker 4: or you can think that the data matters, and I 574 00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:15,439 Speaker 4: guess actually any of these point in the favor of 575 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,040 Speaker 4: the US. I think if you think the data really matters, 576 00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:21,520 Speaker 4: maybe the data they gather through like deepseek dot com 577 00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:23,359 Speaker 4: usage is really good and they can use it to 578 00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:26,119 Speaker 4: like bootstrap a better model. But I think the American 579 00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:28,639 Speaker 4: companies really do have an advantage. Like you all might 580 00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:31,600 Speaker 4: have heard this story just as an anecdote. Apparently at 581 00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:36,240 Speaker 4: Anthropic they've been buying and scanning thousands of old books 582 00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:38,520 Speaker 4: for several years, so they have this division. I think 583 00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:41,640 Speaker 4: they're based in New York that buys like shipping containers 584 00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:44,760 Speaker 4: full of old manuscripts, cuts off the spines and puts 585 00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:47,000 Speaker 4: them in these scanning machines and then they turn them 586 00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:49,840 Speaker 4: into like really high quality text. And so I'm noting 587 00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:53,040 Speaker 4: Claude has this like weird aspect to it. Maybe part 588 00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:57,160 Speaker 4: of the reason is they've gathered like trillions of words 589 00:28:57,280 --> 00:29:00,360 Speaker 4: worth of like old book data over many years, and 590 00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:03,080 Speaker 4: that's pretty hard to replicate elsewhere. So I think that 591 00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:05,040 Speaker 4: head start really does mean a lot. 592 00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,600 Speaker 2: What are you most excited about at the moment? The 593 00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:12,520 Speaker 2: book thing sounds very cool, but what is getting all 594 00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:13,960 Speaker 2: your attention right now? 595 00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:18,800 Speaker 4: Thanks for asking. I think I mentioned before I'm really 596 00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:21,560 Speaker 4: trying to figure out what's coming next. There are some 597 00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:24,800 Speaker 4: obvious things like we can get computer usage data and 598 00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:27,720 Speaker 4: train better agents, or we can get more coding data 599 00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,280 Speaker 4: and make them better coding or writing gp code or whatever, 600 00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:35,280 Speaker 4: But like, what are the non obvious advancements? And my 601 00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:39,640 Speaker 4: personal opinion is that the next round of improvements and 602 00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:44,240 Speaker 4: AI models will come from some type of personalization and 603 00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:48,560 Speaker 4: online learning, which means like models that one are trained 604 00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:50,880 Speaker 4: like per person or per company. So like you could 605 00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:54,280 Speaker 4: think of like CHADGBT is the same model that gets 606 00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:57,680 Speaker 4: served to everyone, so it has to store information about 607 00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:02,080 Speaker 4: random restaurants and like countries you never go to. But 608 00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:04,880 Speaker 4: instead if you had a CHAGBT that's specific to Bloomberg 609 00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:07,719 Speaker 4: or specific to your work, it might be able to 610 00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:10,280 Speaker 4: like use more of its brain to do work for you. 611 00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:13,040 Speaker 4: And then the second thing is if it was updated 612 00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:14,960 Speaker 4: every day, so like if you ask it to make 613 00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:19,160 Speaker 4: your odd lots calendar, yeah, or RSS feed and you're like, no, 614 00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:21,160 Speaker 4: that was wrong, Like you did it wrong for this 615 00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:23,960 Speaker 4: reason this reason, and you try again tomorrow, it'll still 616 00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:27,560 Speaker 4: break tomorrow because it doesn't like continuously improve its capabilities. 617 00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:31,520 Speaker 4: So oh yeah, I think that's the direction things are going. 618 00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:33,520 Speaker 3: I've heard people talk about this now. 619 00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:36,600 Speaker 1: Granted, models are getting better over time, but you know, 620 00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:40,880 Speaker 1: people might compare a coding model to a beginning software 621 00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,080 Speaker 1: engineer and say, the coding model is better, but that 622 00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,360 Speaker 1: software engineer is going to start getting better the next 623 00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:47,040 Speaker 1: day they're on the job, and every day for the 624 00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,240 Speaker 1: rest of their career, they're probably going to be a 625 00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:52,600 Speaker 1: better software engineer than they were the day before, whereas 626 00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:56,800 Speaker 1: at least that version of the model will not be better. 627 00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:58,200 Speaker 3: That is that right? Yeah? 628 00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:00,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, that seems like an issue that people talk about 629 00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:00,800 Speaker 1: in your world. 630 00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:03,160 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I think this is a big problem. It's 631 00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:06,000 Speaker 4: like we have to wait six months for the chat 632 00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:09,000 Speaker 4: GPT five point one to come out, and then maybe 633 00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,640 Speaker 4: they'll include your problems as the training data, and so 634 00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:14,520 Speaker 4: maybe it'll get better, but it might not. And instead, 635 00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:17,280 Speaker 4: I think people need to think about ways to do 636 00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:20,360 Speaker 4: that update more dynamically, like every time you talk to it, 637 00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:22,360 Speaker 4: or maybe every night when you go to sleep, the 638 00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:24,880 Speaker 4: model kind of like gets to work and studies what 639 00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:27,040 Speaker 4: it was talking to you about and crafts better tests 640 00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:28,920 Speaker 4: for itself and then learns and then when you wake up, 641 00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:30,120 Speaker 4: the model's actually better. 642 00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:33,120 Speaker 1: The other big question that I have and is kind 643 00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:36,280 Speaker 1: of related to this, especially when we're talking about AI 644 00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:40,520 Speaker 1: replacing the humans in certain forms of labor, is that 645 00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:44,360 Speaker 1: like do we need really really advanced aid like in 646 00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:47,320 Speaker 1: other words, like there is a lot of again, the 647 00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:51,560 Speaker 1: existing models are extremely impressive, Like in your view, do 648 00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:54,880 Speaker 1: we need to get a lot better technically for them 649 00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:58,280 Speaker 1: to have economic impact? And since these are in many 650 00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:01,600 Speaker 1: cases businesses at the end of the day, is it 651 00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:05,400 Speaker 1: necessary that there's so much work being done towards advancing 652 00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:06,600 Speaker 1: the cutting edge? 653 00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:09,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, that's a great question, Like we could have 654 00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:13,720 Speaker 4: really good interns without ever getting better scores on the 655 00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:16,960 Speaker 4: Math Olympiad, Like that's not necessarily something that we ever 656 00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:19,680 Speaker 4: had to go after. I think part of the reason 657 00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:21,680 Speaker 4: for that is that AI labs are engaged in this 658 00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:24,360 Speaker 4: kind of neck and neck race to have the smartest model. 659 00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:28,640 Speaker 4: But I totally agree that AI could be economically transformative 660 00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:32,080 Speaker 4: without having a higher ceiling in terms of what it 661 00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:33,520 Speaker 4: can do. It's more like it needs to be more 662 00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:36,240 Speaker 4: consistent or like dependable than actually smarter. 663 00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:39,440 Speaker 2: This might be a weird question, but once you've made 664 00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:43,760 Speaker 2: a sort of foundational improvement to a particular model, how 665 00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:47,400 Speaker 2: easy or difficult is it to rewind if you need to. 666 00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:50,400 Speaker 2: And one of the reasons I ask is because you know, 667 00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:53,880 Speaker 2: some people have been complaining that they've been training chat 668 00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:56,760 Speaker 2: GPT to I don't know, be their boyfriend or whatever, 669 00:32:56,960 --> 00:33:01,040 Speaker 2: be their therapist topic. Yeah, and then it gets upgraded 670 00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:04,640 Speaker 2: and all of that training suddenly disappears and the personality 671 00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:06,280 Speaker 2: of the model changes. 672 00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:09,840 Speaker 4: Yeah, that was a really interesting story. So I think 673 00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:13,560 Speaker 4: the model before GPT five was four to zero. And 674 00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:17,280 Speaker 4: they said that they thought internally, like all the scientists 675 00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:20,600 Speaker 4: encoder people, that the new model was superior in every way. 676 00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:23,280 Speaker 4: It gives you shorter responses, it's a bit nicer, it's 677 00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:26,640 Speaker 4: much smarter. And then people got really upset because they 678 00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:28,720 Speaker 4: had spent so much time talking to the old model 679 00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:32,160 Speaker 4: that they felt like they'd experience like a serious loss 680 00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:33,080 Speaker 4: in their life. 681 00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:37,080 Speaker 2: Joe would miss the love it love it No. 682 00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:40,800 Speaker 1: But for real, this is un Ironically this strikes me 683 00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:44,440 Speaker 1: as another example for open source, which is that if 684 00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:47,160 Speaker 1: I'm going to form a I don't see it. I'm 685 00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:49,320 Speaker 1: forty five, I'm too old for that. But if someone 686 00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:51,800 Speaker 1: is going to form like some sort of friendship with 687 00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,480 Speaker 1: an AI model, I don't want it to be at 688 00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:57,400 Speaker 1: the whim of Sam Altman deciding it was like, oh 689 00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:00,160 Speaker 1: there's an upgrade. I would like to be friends, so 690 00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:02,120 Speaker 1: weird to be friends with the model that I know 691 00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:06,480 Speaker 1: that I can run in perpetuity and it will never change. 692 00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:09,359 Speaker 4: Yeah. I think that's definitely a good argument for why 693 00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:12,440 Speaker 4: open source is important, And if you ever fall in 694 00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:14,200 Speaker 4: love with a model, you should fall in love with 695 00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:14,880 Speaker 4: an openness. 696 00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:18,320 Speaker 2: That's good life advice, practical life. 697 00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:19,480 Speaker 3: Advice, really good life advice. 698 00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:22,399 Speaker 2: Well, speaking of open source, you know, I know programmers 699 00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:26,080 Speaker 2: tend to like open source for obvious reasons, but are 700 00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:30,680 Speaker 2: there any downsides to open source for AI specifically? 701 00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:33,080 Speaker 4: I think if you're running a company, there are a 702 00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:36,000 Speaker 4: lot of downsides potentially to open source. If you have 703 00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:41,120 Speaker 4: some brand new, fancy way of doing computation inside the 704 00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:43,319 Speaker 4: model that's actually better, you might want to keep that 705 00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:45,680 Speaker 4: information to yourself. And when you release the model, to 706 00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:47,920 Speaker 4: make it runnable, you have to release all the code 707 00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:50,600 Speaker 4: to run the model, which might contain like your secrets, 708 00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:52,520 Speaker 4: and so I think that's why people are hesitant to 709 00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:55,520 Speaker 4: do it. The other reason is because when you release 710 00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:59,480 Speaker 4: the model, it actually contains quite a lot of residual 711 00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:02,319 Speaker 4: information about how you actually trained it, Like you might 712 00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:04,400 Speaker 4: be able to infer what the data set was and 713 00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:08,080 Speaker 4: what the training process was, or even reconstruct the entire 714 00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:10,760 Speaker 4: training data set given just the weights of the model. 715 00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:15,160 Speaker 4: And so if you're worried about people finding out that 716 00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:17,400 Speaker 4: a certain thing was in your training data, you probably 717 00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:19,040 Speaker 4: can't release that model open source. 718 00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:23,520 Speaker 2: That reminds me how much of an AI researcher's day 719 00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:27,040 Speaker 2: to day life is just like looking at other model, 720 00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:30,359 Speaker 2: other people's models, and trying to, like I guess, pull 721 00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,799 Speaker 2: them apart and figure out how they were made and 722 00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:33,920 Speaker 2: sort of work backwards. 723 00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:38,080 Speaker 4: That definitely happens from time to time. I think usually 724 00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:41,000 Speaker 4: the scientific process is something like you start with other 725 00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:44,360 Speaker 4: people's models, and you run them and you see what happens, 726 00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:46,960 Speaker 4: and then you decide on some part of that process 727 00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,680 Speaker 4: that you think could be improved or could be explored further, 728 00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:51,960 Speaker 4: and you make some tiny changes to it, and then 729 00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:54,640 Speaker 4: you run it again and you compare like numbers, or 730 00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:57,320 Speaker 4: you make graphs of what happened before and what happens after. 731 00:35:57,680 --> 00:35:59,960 Speaker 4: So actually quite a bit of it, like, for example, 732 00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:02,520 Speaker 4: pull the GPT two model from open Ai, which was 733 00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:06,840 Speaker 4: twenty nineteen or something, their first kind of really larger 734 00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:10,279 Speaker 4: scale chatbot. Like I've spent hundreds of hours kind of 735 00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:12,520 Speaker 4: like playing with that code and talking to the model 736 00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:15,400 Speaker 4: and stuff like that. So thank goodness for open source. 737 00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:18,600 Speaker 1: For that reason, I joked in the beginning about you 738 00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:21,879 Speaker 1: having one hundred million dollar salary, but for real, as 739 00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:24,960 Speaker 1: you think about your career, and I hope you do 740 00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:28,040 Speaker 1: get a hundred million dollar salary, but as you think 741 00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:30,799 Speaker 1: about your career, what excites you? 742 00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:32,240 Speaker 3: And how much is it money? 743 00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:34,520 Speaker 1: But the reason I think about this is like they're 744 00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:38,000 Speaker 1: huge checks out there, but maybe some things are more. 745 00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:42,160 Speaker 1: Maybe achieving AGI is more excited than making an ad 746 00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:46,040 Speaker 1: network more efficient. Maybe something there's something more exciting than 747 00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:50,360 Speaker 1: shaving off a billionth of a second in terms of 748 00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:53,320 Speaker 1: a trade execution, all these things like how much is 749 00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:57,399 Speaker 1: it about exploring the frontiers of science, the new space race, 750 00:36:57,480 --> 00:36:59,840 Speaker 1: landing on the Moon versus the paycheck? 751 00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:03,000 Speaker 4: It's all about the paycheck. I'm just kidding. No, no, 752 00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:05,680 Speaker 4: not at all. Yeah, it's funny you ask. So this 753 00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:08,160 Speaker 4: hasn't happened to me, But just in the past two 754 00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:10,759 Speaker 4: weeks or so, a good friend of mine has been 755 00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:13,520 Speaker 4: dealing with this problem because she got an offer on 756 00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:15,839 Speaker 4: the order of like tens of millions of dollars per 757 00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:20,680 Speaker 4: year from a big AI company and she wasn't sure 758 00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:23,279 Speaker 4: if she wanted to work there, and I think originally 759 00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:26,799 Speaker 4: she said no, and then they doubled her offer, and 760 00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:28,920 Speaker 4: then like it's the exact same amount of cash, but 761 00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:31,120 Speaker 4: twice as much per year for certain number of years. 762 00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:34,600 Speaker 4: And you know, we were talking amongst ourselves like what 763 00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:37,120 Speaker 4: does this even mean at this point, Like you're, you know, 764 00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:40,279 Speaker 4: a twenty eight year old computer scientist that's been coming 765 00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:42,239 Speaker 4: from a PhD. So you make more on the order 766 00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:45,440 Speaker 4: of tens of thousands of dollars per year. I honestly 767 00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:49,120 Speaker 4: think personally, the marginal difference between having like ten and 768 00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:51,640 Speaker 4: twenty million dollars is like very low, Like I don't 769 00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:53,440 Speaker 4: even know what I would do with this. 770 00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:57,479 Speaker 1: Is this is my experience for me making ten million 771 00:37:57,520 --> 00:37:58,920 Speaker 1: twenty mine has basically. 772 00:37:58,520 --> 00:37:59,160 Speaker 3: Been the same to me. 773 00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:05,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, congratulations, but so yeah, I think there's more of 774 00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:08,040 Speaker 4: a desire to like be there the next time something 775 00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:12,040 Speaker 4: really interesting happens, and that kind of supersedes the money. 776 00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:14,120 Speaker 4: Like any of these places will pay you what's like 777 00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:16,319 Speaker 4: a really good salary to live on, and so it's 778 00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:19,399 Speaker 4: actually not a big consideration. It only becomes complicated when 779 00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:21,920 Speaker 4: you have like one option that's going to pay you 780 00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:24,319 Speaker 4: like forty times more than the other option, and then 781 00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:25,799 Speaker 4: things get confusing. 782 00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:28,879 Speaker 2: No, this isn't this should actually I was just thinking 783 00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:29,919 Speaker 2: about making twenty million. 784 00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:30,439 Speaker 3: No, I think. 785 00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:33,920 Speaker 1: Because I think about, Okay, what if you have this 786 00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:37,120 Speaker 1: great salary and you're like can live very easily in 787 00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:40,160 Speaker 1: New York City and have a really great life, or 788 00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:43,120 Speaker 1: you could make ten times that, which is a stupid 789 00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:45,800 Speaker 1: insane salary, right, but you don't write like your job. 790 00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:46,680 Speaker 3: But it's so. 791 00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:51,600 Speaker 1: Much money that strikes me is like not a trivial life. 792 00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:54,239 Speaker 1: You only live one time. There's like a different so 793 00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:55,480 Speaker 1: it could be a difficult question. 794 00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:58,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, but you can remind yourself that, like the 795 00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:02,120 Speaker 4: job you take once isn't the job that defines you forever. 796 00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:04,040 Speaker 4: Maybe maybe the right thing to do is to take 797 00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:05,520 Speaker 4: it for a few years but not the whole time, 798 00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:06,279 Speaker 4: and then go do something. 799 00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:09,680 Speaker 1: Everyone says they're going to do that and then. 800 00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:14,080 Speaker 2: They get locked in. Speaking of insanely large salaries, we 801 00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:16,520 Speaker 2: know that people are earning these salaries because they're like 802 00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:23,320 Speaker 2: star AI researchers. How much does personality play into where 803 00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:25,279 Speaker 2: you want to go work? Would you want to go 804 00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:30,399 Speaker 2: work somewhere specifically because there's an absolutely amazing researcher, or 805 00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:32,920 Speaker 2: does it tend to be again more about the paycheck, 806 00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:35,160 Speaker 2: maybe more about the data that's available to you, or 807 00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:37,440 Speaker 2: maybe more about the specific project that you're going to 808 00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:38,000 Speaker 2: be working on. 809 00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:42,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think different people assign different amounts of weight 810 00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:45,759 Speaker 4: to each of those things. In my experience, like most 811 00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:47,759 Speaker 4: of the people I know come from academia, which means 812 00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:49,920 Speaker 4: they already kind of gave up more of a salary 813 00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:52,800 Speaker 4: to do study things more deeply for several years. So 814 00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:55,239 Speaker 4: I think people that I know are more biased against money. 815 00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:58,040 Speaker 4: But like people do care about that. But I think 816 00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:00,640 Speaker 4: that the ego thing really matters. Some people want to 817 00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:02,640 Speaker 4: feel like they're very important and they're working on a 818 00:40:02,640 --> 00:40:05,840 Speaker 4: problem that matters. One way some companies are able to 819 00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:08,560 Speaker 4: pull researchers away from other companies is by saying, we'll 820 00:40:08,760 --> 00:40:11,200 Speaker 4: sign you more importance in your role and we'll give. 821 00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:12,440 Speaker 2: You we'll give you a really big title. 822 00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:16,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly. Seriously, the title is like, Okay, maybe before 823 00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:17,960 Speaker 4: you were like a researcher or not. You get to 824 00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:19,840 Speaker 4: be like a head researcher. You get to have people 825 00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:22,000 Speaker 4: under you, or you're a chief scientist, and all these 826 00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:23,160 Speaker 4: things do matter to people. 827 00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:25,680 Speaker 3: It's a very good book about it. 828 00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:29,720 Speaker 1: Pursuing a mission in the realm of like a driven 829 00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:32,880 Speaker 1: visionary even when it's commercially. 830 00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:35,600 Speaker 2: Just say it, just say yeah, that's right. No. 831 00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:37,920 Speaker 1: I think about this all the time. Do you want 832 00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:39,120 Speaker 1: to work for Ilia or do you want to work 833 00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:40,919 Speaker 1: for Sam? And which one is the ahab and which 834 00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:44,160 Speaker 1: one is just trying to make an honest living selling ads. 835 00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:47,760 Speaker 1: I find this to be like a genuinely interesting, interesting 836 00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:50,680 Speaker 1: question for any individual to have to reckon with in 837 00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:51,200 Speaker 1: this career. 838 00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:52,960 Speaker 4: Oh. Absolutely, And sometimes it can be. 839 00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:55,719 Speaker 1: Very difficult to tell Jack Morris, thank you so much 840 00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:58,399 Speaker 1: for coming on. Please pursue a career that will allow 841 00:40:58,440 --> 00:40:59,840 Speaker 1: you to come back on a log. 842 00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:03,960 Speaker 2: Or insert the odd lots close when you're negotiating your 843 00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:06,239 Speaker 2: one hundred million dollar salary, or. 844 00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:08,560 Speaker 1: Take the fifty so you know what, fifty million, but 845 00:41:08,640 --> 00:41:10,880 Speaker 1: let me I don't need one hundred million, fifty million. 846 00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:11,359 Speaker 3: But keep the album. 847 00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:13,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, that would be fine with me. 848 00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:14,799 Speaker 3: All right, great, Well, thank you so much. 849 00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:16,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks, thank you so much. 850 00:41:16,719 --> 00:41:17,239 Speaker 4: That was great. 851 00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:31,960 Speaker 1: Appreciate I think about that sometimes, like what if you 852 00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:35,479 Speaker 1: got like an insane salary like that, you just could 853 00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:37,480 Speaker 1: you would be insane to say no to But like 854 00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:39,000 Speaker 1: I don't know, that's I mean. 855 00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,960 Speaker 3: It's not our problem, but like, wouldn't it be fun? 856 00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:44,560 Speaker 1: You know? It's like, oh, but you're gonna be working 857 00:41:44,560 --> 00:41:47,600 Speaker 1: on ad optimization or whatever and you're not going to 858 00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:49,280 Speaker 1: be there when they land. 859 00:41:49,080 --> 00:41:51,640 Speaker 3: On the moon. But you got paid ten times. 860 00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:53,520 Speaker 1: More than the people at the Bay station working on 861 00:41:53,640 --> 00:41:55,560 Speaker 1: landing on the moon. That strins me as a kind 862 00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:56,520 Speaker 1: of a tough life choice. 863 00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:58,400 Speaker 2: I think you're using up a lot of brain power 864 00:41:58,400 --> 00:42:00,840 Speaker 2: and energy on a problem which will Jem said is 865 00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:01,239 Speaker 2: not you. 866 00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:03,000 Speaker 3: That's exactly right. 867 00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:06,600 Speaker 2: No, that conversation was really fun. Nice to talk to 868 00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:10,239 Speaker 2: an actual researcher just doing stuff in the space. One 869 00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:12,400 Speaker 2: thing I thought was very interesting was this idea that 870 00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:16,319 Speaker 2: everyone gets excited about a specific improvement in AI, and 871 00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:20,640 Speaker 2: then it seems like that particular one doesn't materialize and 872 00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:24,000 Speaker 2: instead something else emerges, as like the big breakthrough. So 873 00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:27,239 Speaker 2: instead of agents, we have math. 874 00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:29,640 Speaker 1: And math which none of us will ever. I would 875 00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:32,839 Speaker 1: really like for an agent to do something simple. I'm 876 00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:35,120 Speaker 1: going to a city book on the trip or whatever. 877 00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:37,000 Speaker 1: Or change my flight. Oh my god, I tried to. 878 00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:38,600 Speaker 2: That would be amazing. 879 00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:42,080 Speaker 1: Recently change my flight. Here's my information. I don't I 880 00:42:42,120 --> 00:42:45,239 Speaker 1: would like that. I do not need the math olympiad. 881 00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:46,440 Speaker 1: I am very impressed. 882 00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:47,160 Speaker 3: I don't need it. 883 00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:51,480 Speaker 2: Also, I am now very very intrigued by reinforced learning 884 00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:55,880 Speaker 2: and how you actually reward the computers for doing good stuff. 885 00:42:55,920 --> 00:42:58,440 Speaker 2: I feel like, actually that would be a really interesting 886 00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:03,200 Speaker 2: area to mine. Which is motivating motivating the models to 887 00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:03,880 Speaker 2: do better? 888 00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:06,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, I've thought about that, like in chess, like how 889 00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:08,359 Speaker 1: do how do the computers know. 890 00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:08,960 Speaker 3: They want to win? 891 00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:09,359 Speaker 4: Yeah? 892 00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:10,560 Speaker 3: You know, like why do they care? 893 00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:12,759 Speaker 2: You know, all they're saying anyway, why are they here? 894 00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:13,759 Speaker 2: Why are we here? 895 00:43:14,480 --> 00:43:16,240 Speaker 3: That's the thing with AI conversations. 896 00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:18,120 Speaker 2: That's existential fact, something. 897 00:43:17,880 --> 00:43:19,960 Speaker 1: We didn't talk about, which I am interested. No one 898 00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:22,600 Speaker 1: really talks about AI safety anymore. If you notice, like 899 00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:25,319 Speaker 1: they like very little, like for better or worse. You 900 00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:28,080 Speaker 1: don't hear people just all money and they don't really 901 00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:30,719 Speaker 1: talk about what the AI kill us all one day. 902 00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:32,879 Speaker 3: But one thing I did wonder about. 903 00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:35,440 Speaker 1: So when Deep Seat came out, one of its breakthroughs 904 00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:37,640 Speaker 1: was it showed the whole chain of thought, right, you 905 00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:40,200 Speaker 1: could see that, which prior to that open AI or 906 00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:42,319 Speaker 1: chatchybt's chain of thought model didn't show you. 907 00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:42,680 Speaker 4: That, right. 908 00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:44,920 Speaker 1: And it does strike me that if there are certain 909 00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:48,520 Speaker 1: things that are for safety reasons or whatever held back 910 00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:50,480 Speaker 1: or they don't want to do this, the nature of 911 00:43:50,480 --> 00:43:53,840 Speaker 1: competition means all the guardrails are coming off of Actually, 912 00:43:53,920 --> 00:43:56,279 Speaker 1: like that's if there's some guardrail you you have on 913 00:43:56,680 --> 00:43:59,480 Speaker 1: someone's going to open source whatever it is and they're 914 00:43:59,520 --> 00:44:00,520 Speaker 1: going to all give it up. 915 00:44:00,640 --> 00:44:04,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, both on the guardrails and on the data use ys. 916 00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:06,080 Speaker 2: All right, well shall we leave it there. 917 00:44:06,160 --> 00:44:06,879 Speaker 3: Let's leave it there. 918 00:44:07,040 --> 00:44:09,560 Speaker 2: This has been another episode of the aud Loots podcast. 919 00:44:09,600 --> 00:44:12,480 Speaker 2: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. 920 00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:15,240 Speaker 1: And I'm Jill Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. 921 00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:19,680 Speaker 1: Follow our guest Jack Morris, He's at j xmnop. Follow 922 00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:23,000 Speaker 1: our producers Kerman Rodriguez at Kerman armand dash O Bennett 923 00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:26,480 Speaker 1: at Dashbod and kil Brooks at Kilbrooks. More odd Loss content, 924 00:44:26,480 --> 00:44:28,520 Speaker 1: go to Bloomberg dot com slash od Lots with the 925 00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:31,319 Speaker 1: daily newsletter and all of our episodes, and you can 926 00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:33,359 Speaker 1: chat about all of these topics twenty four to seven 927 00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:36,520 Speaker 1: in our discord Discord dot gg slash. 928 00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:38,799 Speaker 2: Odd Lots And if you enjoy odd Lots, if you 929 00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:41,400 Speaker 2: like it when we talk about twenty million dollars salaries 930 00:44:41,440 --> 00:44:43,840 Speaker 2: that will never be ours, then please leave us a 931 00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:47,600 Speaker 2: positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if 932 00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:50,040 Speaker 2: you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all 933 00:44:50,080 --> 00:44:52,960 Speaker 2: of our episodes absolutely ad free. All you need to 934 00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:55,520 Speaker 2: do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and 935 00:44:55,600 --> 00:45:14,840 Speaker 2: follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening it