WEBVTT - Benjamin Netanyahu’s Referendum Has Finally Arrived 

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios.

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<v Speaker 2>Podcasts. Radio. News. Prime Minister Netanyahu, who's contesting this election

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<v Speaker 2>and hopes to extend his already record reign with another term,

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<v Speaker 2>has sought effectively to change his public image from that

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<v Speaker 2>of Chamberlain to that of Churchill.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm David Gurra, and this is The Big Take from

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News. Today on the show, I talk to Bloomberg's

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<v Speaker 1>Dan Williams, who covers Israel. about what's at stake when

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<v Speaker 1>Israelis head to the polls for the first time since

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<v Speaker 1>the October 7th attacks. What could this pivotal election mean

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<v Speaker 1>for Israel's future and the future of the region? Dan,

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<v Speaker 1>I go back to the days and weeks after October 7th,

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<v Speaker 1>and there was this kind of widespread belief that Benjamin

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<v Speaker 1>Netanyahu couldn't weather what had happened in the aftermath of it.

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<v Speaker 1>This is the first time the Israeli electorate has a

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<v Speaker 1>chance to register their approval or disapproval of the job

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<v Speaker 1>that he has done, how he handled that attack and

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<v Speaker 1>the war that followed. What have the polls said about

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<v Speaker 1>Netanyahu's popularity?

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<v Speaker 2>It's worth remembering that no party in the history of Israel,

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<v Speaker 2>no single party, has ever gained enough seats to dominate

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<v Speaker 2>parliament and go it alone in government. These are always

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<v Speaker 2>coalition governments. As a result, he and presumably his main challenger,

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<v Speaker 2>Gadi Eizenkot, which polls showing running fairly neck and neck,

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<v Speaker 2>will both be tasked one at a time. And the

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<v Speaker 2>first will presumably be the one that does better in

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<v Speaker 2>the election with forming a government. I think Israelis are tired.

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<v Speaker 2>We're not seeing major street protests, demonstrations, scuffles and the like.

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<v Speaker 2>Even the posters put up in alleyways, streets, highways are

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<v Speaker 2>pretty lackluster in their appeal, I.

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<v Speaker 1>Have to say.

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<v Speaker 2>But I think it comes down to the fact that

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<v Speaker 2>people have been fighting an actual war. and those streets

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<v Speaker 2>and highways have been decked by posters remembering hostages assailing

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<v Speaker 2>Netanyahu over October 7th, trying to mobilize or maintain the

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<v Speaker 2>mobilization of popular support for a war many Israelis deem

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<v Speaker 2>as necessary and existential. So the energy has been drained

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<v Speaker 2>from that, but that does not mean there will be

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<v Speaker 2>a low turnout. There are indications there will be an

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<v Speaker 2>unusually high turnout, indeed, with people having already decided long

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<v Speaker 2>ago how they're going to vote, finally getting a chance

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<v Speaker 2>to cast that ballot.

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<v Speaker 1>Dan, it sounds like there is a real urge here

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<v Speaker 1>to look back. That's what's kind of driving a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of the momentum to the polls in the coming days.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you draw the contrast for us between Gadi Eisenkot's

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<v Speaker 1>vision for Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu's?

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<v Speaker 2>At large, when you actually look at what they say,

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<v Speaker 2>there's not much of a difference. And I think this

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<v Speaker 2>feeds back to the idea that this election is really

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<v Speaker 2>a referendum on a person. It's really an election over

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<v Speaker 2>Netanyahu himself. I don't think anyone has a magic formula

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<v Speaker 2>for Israel's problems in the long run. In terms of policy,

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<v Speaker 2>when you ask Eisenkot, and he certainly was asked on

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<v Speaker 2>the campaign trail, he very quickly farms out the certain

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<v Speaker 2>issues to a staff, running mates, as you were, a

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<v Speaker 2>slate of Knesset members that he would like to see

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<v Speaker 2>in parliament alongside him. He's very confident, obviously, on military matters.

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<v Speaker 2>He is an ex-general, Israel's former pop-general. So on that point,

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<v Speaker 2>he's been very strong, and he's actually parted with consensus.

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<v Speaker 2>He will state flat out that he wants to see

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<v Speaker 2>the so-called hilltop youth, extremist settlers, reined in. I'm not

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<v Speaker 2>sure his rise to the premiership would be good news

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<v Speaker 2>to Israel's enemies or Palestinians who've suffered under Israeli rule

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<v Speaker 2>for decades, because he's widely considered by them to be

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<v Speaker 2>a hawk. who will pursue similar policies if perhaps less

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<v Speaker 2>in favor of Israeli settlement of the West Bank. We're

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<v Speaker 2>not about to see a rolling back of Israel's presence

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<v Speaker 2>in Gaza or Lebanon. He's already stated flat out that

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<v Speaker 2>within 18 months of him becoming prime minister, if that

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<v Speaker 2>should happen, Hamas will either be destroyed by Israeli force

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<v Speaker 2>or destroyed by a consensual decision to disarm and be

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<v Speaker 2>dismantled in the Gaza Strip.

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<v Speaker 1>How often does he talk about one of his sons

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<v Speaker 1>who died in the Gaza War? How big an issue

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<v Speaker 1>has that been in this campaign, his very personal connection

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<v Speaker 1>to the Gaza War?

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<v Speaker 2>It is a very personal connection. It's worth noting that

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<v Speaker 2>not only his son, he lost two nephews as well.

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<v Speaker 2>So this was a major blow to him. His son's

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<v Speaker 2>funeral was attended today. by an ashen-faced Netanyahu. At the time,

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<v Speaker 2>Gadi Azenkot was actually a member of the war cabinet,

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<v Speaker 2>so he was running the war. He was informed of

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<v Speaker 2>his son's death while attending a briefing about the Gaza

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<v Speaker 2>fighting on the Gaza periphery. He said that the loss

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<v Speaker 2>of his son is for him a reminder of the

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<v Speaker 2>need to rein in unnecessary war unnecessarily protracted war. He's

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<v Speaker 2>accused the prime minister of extending the Gaza war unnecessarily

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<v Speaker 2>for political reasons. That's obviously something that's been disputed by Netanyahu. However,

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's beyond dispute that there is an extra

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<v Speaker 2>gravitas about him, a gravitas of grief, which is appealing

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<v Speaker 2>to many Israelis in the sense that they don't doubt

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<v Speaker 2>his sincerity.

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<v Speaker 1>October 7th, continuing to loom large, what happened after October

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<v Speaker 1>7th as well. When you look at sort of the

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<v Speaker 1>issues that are animating this campaign, are they mostly having

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<v Speaker 1>to do with October 7th and foreign policy, or are

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<v Speaker 1>there others that you had known?

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<v Speaker 2>I think everything flows from October 7th, and I'll give

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<v Speaker 2>you an example. One major point of dispute between entire

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<v Speaker 2>camps in Israel, which will come to the fore in

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<v Speaker 2>this election, is the waiver from military conscription that has

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<v Speaker 2>been enjoyed by ultra-Orthodox Jews going back decades in the

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<v Speaker 2>name of preserving their religious scholarship. However, fast forward several generations,

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<v Speaker 2>especially given the large birth rates, the large family size

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<v Speaker 2>of these communities, they now number between 15 and 18

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<v Speaker 2>percent of the Israeli population. They are welfare dependent, by

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<v Speaker 2>and large, and the fact they do not contribute to

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<v Speaker 2>the military burden, one that's been very, very sorely felt

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<v Speaker 2>by Israelis by and large, especially reservists, who had to

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<v Speaker 2>drop everything, families, career, studies in the case of students,

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<v Speaker 2>and sign up sometimes for hundreds of days of reserve

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<v Speaker 2>duty with a cost to their professional lives, sometimes to

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<v Speaker 2>their private lives, their marriages, their relationships with their children,

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<v Speaker 2>while an entire sector of the population did not have

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<v Speaker 2>to suffer that, and indeed did not have to suffer

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<v Speaker 2>the worst result of the war, which is the proverbial

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<v Speaker 2>knock at the door by notification officers. to tell the

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<v Speaker 2>family that their son or their brother, their husband or

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<v Speaker 2>their father has died in the course of this war.

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<v Speaker 2>That is really something that's deemed unforgivable by large swathes

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<v Speaker 2>of the Israeli populace. So yes, this might have been,

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<v Speaker 2>and it certainly was an issue in previous elections. Now

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<v Speaker 2>it's sorely felt.

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<v Speaker 1>After the break, my conversation with Dan Williams continues. Dan,

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<v Speaker 1>what would a loss mean for Benjamin Netanyahu and his party?

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<v Speaker 1>What would it say about his long 10 years as

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<v Speaker 1>the longest serving prime minister in Israel's history? What would

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<v Speaker 1>that defeat mean were it to happen?

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<v Speaker 2>A defeat would play out slowly on the assumption the

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<v Speaker 2>Likud party headed by Netanyahu comes out second in this

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<v Speaker 2>election after Eisenkot's party. Then again, he would probably have

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<v Speaker 2>a chance at forming a government if Eisenkot fails to

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<v Speaker 2>do so. If Eisenkot succeeds and if Netanyahu fails, therefore,

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<v Speaker 2>to be the prime minister, he would presumably head the opposition. However,

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<v Speaker 2>I think what's going to happen is that knives will

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<v Speaker 2>come out in the Likud party. There will be an

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<v Speaker 2>intimation from the new government that the Likud party is

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<v Speaker 2>welcome to join in an extended, broad national security government

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<v Speaker 2>on condition they jettison Netanyahu as their leader. Personally, his

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<v Speaker 2>prospects could be quite dim. He is 77, he just

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<v Speaker 2>turned 77, he's under indictment. He's been for several years

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<v Speaker 2>now in a corruption trial. He denies any wrongdoing. He's

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<v Speaker 2>also a man that's well-known abroad. However, his travel abroad,

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<v Speaker 2>his wings have been clipped because the ICC has issued

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<v Speaker 2>arrest warrants against him. And in much of the world,

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<v Speaker 2>at least much of the world that he would want

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<v Speaker 2>to visit, he cannot travel, he cannot land for fear

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<v Speaker 2>of being arrested on the spot. And his opponents, his critics,

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<v Speaker 2>suggest Part of the reason he's holding onto the national

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<v Speaker 2>helm so hard is because he simply doesn't want to

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<v Speaker 2>face life after that premiership.

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<v Speaker 1>Were he to lose, I wonder what happens to members

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<v Speaker 1>of his current coalition, particularly those who are far right,

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<v Speaker 1>one-time fringe members who have found their way into Netanyahu's

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<v Speaker 1>current cabinet. Do they continue to have influence going forward

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<v Speaker 1>if Netanyahu were to lose?

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<v Speaker 2>If he loses on the assumption someone like Eisenkot or

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<v Speaker 2>the so-called change camp takes over the government, then no. Certainly,

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<v Speaker 2>Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right, hardline settler who now runs the

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<v Speaker 2>National Security Ministry, de facto the minister for police and prisons,

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<v Speaker 2>he will not be invited back to any such coalition.

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<v Speaker 2>It's extremely unlikely that Bacala Smotrich, also hard-right, also hardline settler,

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<v Speaker 2>the finance minister, but I think he's equally, perhaps more

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<v Speaker 2>interested in the role he carved out for himself in

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<v Speaker 2>the defence ministry, managing settlements in the West Bank. For

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<v Speaker 2>that reason, he won't be invited back either.

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<v Speaker 1>Dan, how do you think about the Israel a new

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<v Speaker 1>prime minister would inherit? I'm thinking about the level of

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<v Speaker 1>trauma that you've described in the population, thinking of how

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<v Speaker 1>many reservists are serving at great cost to their families,

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<v Speaker 1>the jobs they would typically perform, the tensions over settler

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<v Speaker 1>violence in the West Bank. Given where the general population

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<v Speaker 1>is after October 7th, Would anything change on the ground

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<v Speaker 1>in Gaza?

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<v Speaker 2>In Gaza, unlikely, although what we might see is a

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<v Speaker 2>new government, a post-Netanyahu government, or even a Netanyahu government

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<v Speaker 2>shorn of the far-rightists. He's given some indications that he

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<v Speaker 2>might try, if made prime minister again, to find a

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<v Speaker 2>way to bring alternative partners, certainly to Ben-Gavir, perhaps to

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<v Speaker 2>Smotrich as well. Then he might be in a position to,

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<v Speaker 2>should we say, lean toward a top gap situation in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 2>Right now, he's saying there'll be no reconstruction as long

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<v Speaker 2>as Hamas is not fully disarmed, fully dismantled. So the

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<v Speaker 2>question now is, given Hamas is holding onto its guns,

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<v Speaker 2>given that there may not be the energy or the

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<v Speaker 2>support right now for a renewed war, is it possible

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<v Speaker 2>in the 64% of the Gaza Strip that the Israelis

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<v Speaker 2>have controlled since the ceasefire was signed about a year ago,

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<v Speaker 2>is it possible to start reconstructing there while leaving the

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<v Speaker 2>question of the Hamas rule 30% in the air? That

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<v Speaker 2>is something that I think foreign mediators, the Board of Peace,

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<v Speaker 2>Jared Kushner, Trump's main envoy to this matter, would all welcome.

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<v Speaker 2>It's something that Netanyahu cannot really broach or accept at

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<v Speaker 2>this point, because the optics of reconstruction going on while

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<v Speaker 2>Hamas is still in charge, the optics of life returning

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<v Speaker 2>to normal for some Palestinians, while other Palestinians are living

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<v Speaker 2>under and presumably serving with and supportive of Hamas, would

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<v Speaker 2>be intolerable for that far right wing of Netanyahu's current coalition.

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<v Speaker 1>Dan, we've talked about what might happen were Gadi Eisenkant

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<v Speaker 1>to win this election. If Benjamin Netanyahu were to stay

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<v Speaker 1>in power, what would that say about his legacy? What

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<v Speaker 1>would it say about his sway over the government and

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<v Speaker 1>the general population? What would it tell us about the

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<v Speaker 1>direction of Israel's future, at least in the near term?

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<v Speaker 2>In the near term, that Israelis are still in the

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<v Speaker 2>grip of existential fear, something that I think Netanyahu has

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<v Speaker 2>tried to drum up, especially in recent weeks, as this

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<v Speaker 2>election has reached its head. That fear trumps being accepted

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<v Speaker 2>by the world, at least the bulk of the Western

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<v Speaker 2>world that has really been aghast at the bloodshed in

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<v Speaker 2>the Gaza Strip and in certain parts of Western Europe,

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<v Speaker 2>and even certain precincts of the Democratic Party in the

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<v Speaker 2>United States have shown a willingness to impose sanctions on

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<v Speaker 2>Israel over that. Israelis have paid a massive price in

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<v Speaker 2>blood for this war. Just to put things in perspective,

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<v Speaker 2>the death toll here, in this war, if you factor

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<v Speaker 2>in or adjust for population size, come out to about

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<v Speaker 2>four and a half times the number of US troops

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<v Speaker 2>lost in the entirety of the Afghan and the Iraqi campaigns.

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<v Speaker 2>Despite that massive sacrifice, the deepening isolation of the country,

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<v Speaker 2>there's every indication that most Israelis have called upon again

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<v Speaker 2>to mobilize for another war. And there's talk in the

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<v Speaker 2>air of potentially an imminent resumption of attacks on Iran,

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<v Speaker 2>they would turn up. So if Netanyahu is voted in

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<v Speaker 2>one more time, there will be a great deal of rancor.

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<v Speaker 2>Some Israelis, especially those with portable professions and means, will

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<v Speaker 2>emigrate abroad. There has been a degree of brain drain

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<v Speaker 2>seen by Israelis who simply don't want to expose their

0:13:41.429 --> 0:13:44.350
<v Speaker 2>children to this, perhaps disagree with the politics. But the

0:13:44.390 --> 0:13:47.930
<v Speaker 2>population in general, I think, will soldier on while the

0:13:47.970 --> 0:13:51.150
<v Speaker 2>opposition tries to devise ways of bringing him down and

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<v Speaker 2>perhaps hope that that the fact that he's 77 years old,

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<v Speaker 2>the fact that some members of his party may be

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<v Speaker 2>towering in his leadership, will also have their own effect

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<v Speaker 2>in ousting him one way or the other.

0:14:05.860 --> 0:14:08.280
<v Speaker 1>This is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gurra.

0:14:08.580 --> 0:14:11.360
<v Speaker 1>The show is hosted by me, Sarah Holder, and Juan Ha.

0:14:11.840 --> 0:14:14.950
<v Speaker 1>The show is made by David Fox, Jeff Grocott, Naomi Ng,

0:14:15.230 --> 0:14:19.690
<v Speaker 1>Julia Press, Naomi Chavin, Julia Weaver, Yang Yang, Aaron Edwards,

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<v Speaker 1>Patty Hirsch, Tracy Samuelson, Sean Carter II, Emma Munger, and

0:14:24.110 --> 0:14:28.150
<v Speaker 1>Alex Agura. Our executive producer is Nicole Beamster-Boer. If you

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