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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Bloomberg day Break Asia podcast. I'm Doug Chrisner.

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Speaker 2: On today's episode, we'll break down fourth quarter results from Amazon.

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Speaker 2: We'll be talking with Aarun Sunderum, vice president of Equity

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Speaker 2: Research at CFRA. Plus a preview of tomorrow's jobs report.

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Speaker 2: We'll be talking with Keith Buchanan. He is a partner

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Speaker 2: and senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments. But we begin

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Speaker 2: in the Lion City. Joining us now is Mary Nicolas.

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Speaker 2: She's Bloomberg M Live strategist, joining from our studios in Singapore.

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Speaker 2: I was reading your entry today in the M Live blog,

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Speaker 2: and you're talking about how some Chinese e commerce stocks

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Speaker 2: are under pressure here because they could be facing an

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Speaker 2: additional levy this week. Can you explain what's going on here?

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Speaker 1: Sure?

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Speaker 3: So, earlier this week, when we had the Chinese tariffs,

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Speaker 3: there a report that the US Postal Service was not

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Speaker 3: going to accept any packages that was coming from China

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Speaker 3: and Hong Kong. That was quickly reversed, but there is

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Speaker 3: also reports saying that now these companies are going to

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Speaker 3: have to pay an additional thirty percent levy for any

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Speaker 3: packages coming into the US, So obviously there's going to

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Speaker 3: be some pressure on e commerce. The news on the

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Speaker 3: US postal service had already put some pressure on the

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Speaker 3: e commerce. That aside, though, we saw Chinese stocks do

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Speaker 3: absolutely well on the optimism surrounding AI and robotics, not

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Speaker 3: only from deep Seek, but there was this other robotics

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Speaker 3: dance actually that broke the Internet, just getting people excited

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Speaker 3: about the wave and the future of robotics for China.

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Speaker 3: But irrespective, it still puts pressure on a lot of

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Speaker 3: the e commerce names and some of the bigger e

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Speaker 3: commerce names.

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Speaker 2: To what extent is the government in China right now

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Speaker 2: involved in supporting the equity market. Is that part of

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Speaker 2: the story when you look at the major benchmarks, that

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Speaker 2: there is just something underneath the surface where Beijing is

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Speaker 2: kind of lifting prices a little bit.

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Speaker 3: Well there, I'm sure there's an element of it, because

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Speaker 3: there was some sort of longer term plans of involving

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Speaker 3: a lot of the mutual of of the pension funds

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Speaker 3: and the lifers, et cetera. But I think there is

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Speaker 3: this underlying excitement about AI and about tech, and that

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Speaker 3: euphoria from deep Zeek is still really resonating among retail

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Speaker 3: investors yesterday. The biggest the biggest supporters were robotics, and

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Speaker 3: it was much of the much of it was focused

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Speaker 3: on a lot of the smaller names. So that's why

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Speaker 3: you didn't see huge games in the CSI three hundred

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Speaker 3: or in the Shanghai composite, because of the fact that

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Speaker 3: a lot of it was going to smaller software companies

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Speaker 3: and smaller robotics companies. But I think if we see

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Speaker 3: any sort of significant downdrafts in Chinese equities, I think

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Speaker 3: you would see a lot of support coming in from

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Speaker 3: the government side.

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Speaker 2: Have you seen any high frequency data where the Chinese

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Speaker 2: consumer is concerned? During the Lunar New Year holiday, do

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Speaker 2: we know how well the spending was kind of helping

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Speaker 2: to drive the economy.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so there were some reports that arrivals at the

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Speaker 3: box office were really really strong. Travel was really strong

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Speaker 3: as well, so it showed some sort of upside. But

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Speaker 3: if you look underneath the hood and the per capita spending,

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Speaker 3: it's still a little bit under what we saw in

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Speaker 3: twenty nineteen, and that is still an issue because you

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Speaker 3: don't see that there's a complete relaxation or a motivation

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Speaker 3: to continue with spending the subsidies, the trade and subsidies

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Speaker 3: that the government had provided the people where you can

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Speaker 3: trade in some of your electronic goods for newer and

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Speaker 3: more updated ones. That also showed some signs of resilience

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Speaker 3: as well. So it's moving but very very slowly, and

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Speaker 3: theyre's still underlying and underneath the hood, it's still confidence

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Speaker 3: isn't as strong as you would expect.

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Speaker 2: It's the final trading day of the week where you are,

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Speaker 2: and I'm wondering if you look to next week, is

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Speaker 2: there anything that we should be paying close attention to

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Speaker 2: that may end up driving the market.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. I think next week it's going to be about

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Speaker 3: retail sales and CPI data out of the US. Today

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Speaker 3: we have the labor market report, and that should give

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Speaker 3: an indication of, you know, where risk assets are headed,

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Speaker 3: because at the end of the day, even you know,

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Speaker 3: trade noise aside this, still the drivers from the FED

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Speaker 3: is still really strong. So where the Fed is heading

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Speaker 3: and how the market perceives the Fed is heading because

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Speaker 3: so far right now they're much more conservative than where

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Speaker 3: the Fed is thinking. So market is looking for one

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Speaker 3: to two rate cuts, where as the FED had told

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Speaker 3: US that they were looking for two cuts in twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty five, So the labor market report will be one,

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Speaker 3: the second one will be CPI and where the direction

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Speaker 3: of inflation is going. And then of course retail sales.

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Speaker 3: Retail sales will not only be important in terms of

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Speaker 3: showing the resilience of the US consumer, but also feed

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Speaker 3: into the equity markets, and of course, you know the

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Speaker 3: outlooks for a lot of the for equity. More generally,

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Speaker 3: you and.

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Speaker 2: I have talked a lot in the past about the

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Speaker 2: strength of the US dollar, and I'm kind of surprised

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Speaker 2: at the strength of the end this week. I mean,

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Speaker 2: we're flirting with one fifty one. What's happening with the.

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Speaker 3: En Yeah, it's it's had a really good run, and

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Speaker 3: largely because we've heard little snippets from BOJ members talking

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Speaker 3: about So for example, one of the BOJ members, Tamora,

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Speaker 3: yesterday had commented about seeing rates at one percent, and

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Speaker 3: he retraced and retraced some of those comments. But at

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Speaker 3: the same time, if that's what the BOJ is thinking,

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Speaker 3: and they're moving in that direction, and then of course

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Speaker 3: you had wage earnings and they were really really strong today.

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Speaker 3: Household spending was really strong. That's all pushing the narrative

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Speaker 3: towards more rate hikes for the BA, and I think

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Speaker 3: that's also increasing expectations from traders that they are coming.

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Speaker 3: So if you look at pricing, not necessarily for the

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Speaker 3: next meeting in March, but the following one on April

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Speaker 3: thirty May, first, you're seeing expectations rise for a hike

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Speaker 3: coming then, which was a lot sooner than people had

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Speaker 3: projected because projections were more for July.

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Speaker 2: Does that necessarily spell trouble for the Japanese equity market?

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Speaker 3: Not necessarily, so it does for the big exporters, I

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Speaker 3: would say, but we have seen a breakdown in the

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Speaker 3: correlation between where the yen is headed and the directionality

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Speaker 3: of the en and the equity markets. So I think

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Speaker 3: some of the bigger names will suffer. But remember there's

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Speaker 3: still a lot of importers within the Japanese equity markets

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Speaker 3: who have been struggling as a result of a much

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Speaker 3: weaker yen.

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Speaker 2: So when you talk to analysts that focus on the

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Speaker 2: Japanese equity market, are they highlighting certain industry groups or

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Speaker 2: certain areas of the market that represent value right now?

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Speaker 2: I mean you were talking about a move to shy

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Speaker 2: away from anything that may have exposure to a stronger currency,

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Speaker 2: those big multinational exporters. But I'm wondering whether there is

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Speaker 2: value in some other pockets of the Japanese equity market.

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Speaker 3: So there's a lot of excitement on Japanese financials because

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Speaker 3: they're going to be one of the big beneficiaries from

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Speaker 3: a rate hike. So financials have been doing well, They've

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Speaker 3: actually surprised to the upside. Consumer discretionary have also surprised

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Speaker 3: to the upside. That could continue as well, and earnings

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Speaker 3: overall has been very much broad based, so there could

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Speaker 3: be Probably the main pockets that will outperform are probably financials,

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Speaker 3: but at the same time, the others have plenty of

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Speaker 3: room to catch up.

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Speaker 2: Mary will leave it there, Thank you so much. I

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Speaker 2: hope you have a good weekend in Singapore. That is

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg m Live strategist Mary Nicola joining us here on

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Speaker 2: the Daybreak Asia podcast. Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia

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Speaker 2: podcast time Doug Krisner. After the battle, we heard from

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Speaker 2: Amazon and the company issued a revenue forecast for the

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Speaker 2: current quarter below estimates. For a closer look, I'm joined

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Speaker 2: by Arun Sundrum, Vice President of Equity Research at CFRA

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Speaker 2: A run Thank you so much for making time to

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Speaker 2: chat with us. I understand that you just jumped off

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Speaker 2: the earnings called. What did you learn?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think one of the big takeaways from the

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Speaker 4: earnings call is that this this capex cycle that we

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Speaker 4: started to see this past year, that's going to continue

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Speaker 4: into US in twenty five. I don't think that's that

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Speaker 4: much of a surprise, given that all the big tech

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Speaker 4: firms and have announced a pretty sizeable acceleration in capex spending.

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Speaker 4: But Amazon did announce that they're expecting probably about one

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Speaker 4: hundred and five billion, one hundred and ten billion dollars

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Speaker 4: of capex in twenty twenty five. The consensus going into

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Speaker 4: the year was eighty five billion, so it's about twenty

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Speaker 4: and twenty five percent higher than the street expectation. So

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Speaker 4: clearly big tech is still investing in specificly investing in AI,

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Speaker 4: and that's that's going to continue.

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Speaker 2: What do we know about demand for these services and

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Speaker 2: whether or not there's going to be a return on investment?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I don't think Amazon, as well as

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Speaker 4: a lot of analysts investors, are overly worried about the return.

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Speaker 4: I say that because one, I mean this past year

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Speaker 4: in twenty twenty four, the margins aws have been quite

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Speaker 4: attractive despite the fact that they've been ramping up CAPEC

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Speaker 4: spending there. And Amazon also has I think a proven

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Speaker 4: track record to generating returns on their investment. So I think,

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Speaker 4: you know, it'll take time for you know, to fully

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Speaker 4: see the full ROI se on these investments. I think

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Speaker 4: we'll likely see some headwinds in twenty twenty five, just

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Speaker 4: given how much extra CAPEX are spending, but I think

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Speaker 4: by twenty twenty six, twenty twenty seven, we should see

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Speaker 4: something better returns you know, of the of those investments.

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Speaker 2: So how is the market for cloud computing changing right now?

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Speaker 2: Is it a lot less competitive and more concentrated? How

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Speaker 2: would you evaluate it?

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Speaker 4: No, I would say it's it's still very de bandside

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Speaker 4: is still very strong, you know. I think all the

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Speaker 4: big tech players, the hyper scalers have announced that right now,

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Speaker 4: you know, their their demand is exceeding supply. So there's

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Speaker 4: supply chain issues throughout the industry and Amazon included. You know,

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Speaker 4: I think it's going to take probably at least half

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Speaker 4: a year to a full year for supply to catch up.

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Speaker 4: With demand. That's why these companies are investing so heavily.

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Speaker 4: But there's clearly a lot of demand for AI. I

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Speaker 4: think the recent news with deep sea coming out of China,

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Speaker 4: there's been a lot of jitter in the market regarding that.

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Speaker 4: In Amazon's perspective, this is just going to accelerate the

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Speaker 4: adoption of AI. If AI is cheaper, more companies are

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Speaker 4: going to adopt AI, and more companies probably gonna spend

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Speaker 4: more on AI, and Amazon, being the largest cloud provider,

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Speaker 4: should be a direct beneficiarya of that. So their a

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Speaker 4: w's business is very large. Today Amazon is the leading

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Speaker 4: leading market share in that of that business, but that's

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Speaker 4: likely going to going to see continued growth over the

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Speaker 4: over the next you know, foreseeable future.

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Speaker 2: I'm looking at an item right now related to Amazon

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Speaker 2: on the Bloomberg terminal and Andy Jase, the CEO, was

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Speaker 2: talking about insufficient electricity. This seems to echo some of

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Speaker 2: the concern that we heard from Microsoft. How does Amazon

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Speaker 2: propose to solve this problem the power that's required to

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Speaker 2: drive a lot of these data centers.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so they're even investing in their own power infrastructure themselves,

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Speaker 4: and they're partnering with other companies. Clearly, over the next

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Speaker 4: you say, five to ten years, it's going to be

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Speaker 4: a massive demand for energy and that is a concern

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Speaker 4: throughout throughout the industry. So I expect, you know, to

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Speaker 4: see continued investments in that space from the hyperscalers, Microsoft, Google, Amazon.

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Speaker 4: I think they'll start to also invest in energy infrastructure.

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Speaker 2: So when you create these data centers, do you think

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Speaker 2: it would behoove a company like Amazon to create a

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Speaker 2: little bit more geographic distribution, not to have them concentrated

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Speaker 2: in certain regions, to kind of help address this problem

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Speaker 2: with power.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, right now, a lot of these data centers.

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Speaker 4: So I live in the Washington, DC metro area, and

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Speaker 4: Northern Virginia is like the hub for for data centers.

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Speaker 4: A lot of Amazon data centers are here. But right now,

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Speaker 4: you know, Amazon's not a ws is not just expanding

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Speaker 4: in the United States, They're also expanding around the world.

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Speaker 4: You know, I think Amazon just recently announced I believe

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Speaker 4: it's Thailand that's going to be another data center hub

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Speaker 4: for the for the Asia market. So I do expect

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Speaker 4: over the next you know, you know, five to ten years,

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Speaker 4: we'll start to see more countries as essentially hubs for

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Speaker 4: for data centers. As you know, AWS expands throughout the world.

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Speaker 2: What do we know about the rest of Amazon's businesses?

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Speaker 2: How well are they performing right now?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: So, I mean the biggest businesses is their e commerce

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Speaker 4: business that you know had a phenomenal quarter. That's not

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Speaker 4: a surprise given that you know, overall the holiday spending

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Speaker 4: in the US was really strong this past year. Uh,

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Speaker 4: that business is on fire. Their their advertising business has

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Speaker 4: slowed down a little bit. You know, right now, Amazon

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Speaker 4: generates most of their ad revenue from their e commerce business.

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Speaker 4: Only they're their video ads business or Prime Video. They

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Speaker 4: just introduced ads to Prime Video this past year, so

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Speaker 4: that's still a very portion of their overall advertising business.

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Speaker 4: I think there's some excitement right now that in twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty five we could see better monetization of Prime video ads,

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Speaker 4: especially as Amazon rolls out more live sports in their

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Speaker 4: own content. So that video ads business should see some

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Speaker 4: strong growth over the next few years. And we're hopeful

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Speaker 4: that that advertising business, that growth in that advertising business

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Speaker 4: will reaccelerate because, like I said, last few quarters we

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Speaker 4: did see some deceleration in the ad business.

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Speaker 2: I'm curious as to whether the company on the call

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Speaker 2: addressed the issue of tariffs, particularly those that have been

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Speaker 2: put on China recently. Is that perhaps a benefit to

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Speaker 2: this company?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so they didn't talk about it much on the call.

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Speaker 4: I think it was a little bit baked into their outlooks.

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Speaker 4: One of the reasons the stock is down right now

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Speaker 4: is because of the weaker than expected outlook, and I

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Speaker 4: think it's due to you know, tariff headwinds is one

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Speaker 4: and also the stronger US dollars is another sizable headwind.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, regarding tariff, you know, I think tariffs are

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Speaker 4: a bad word in retail. But you know, the silver

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Speaker 4: lining is that tariffs impact everyone. It's not it's not

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Speaker 4: you know, single singling, one retailer out. So typically when

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Speaker 4: you see tariffs like this, you tend to see the

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Speaker 4: larger retailers, you know, oper form and find ways to

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Speaker 4: better navigate through tariffs. So, you know, I'm expecting Amazon

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Speaker 4: as well as you know, Walmart, Target, you know these

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Speaker 4: I think these retailers will be able to better navigate

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Speaker 4: and work through these tariffs. Then maybe some of the

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Speaker 4: smaller retailers. And you have to remember, I mean this

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Speaker 4: is not their first go around with tariffs. You know,

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Speaker 4: these companies experience the trade war with China back in

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Speaker 4: twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen, So overall, I think the industry

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Speaker 4: is better prepared for tariffs this time this time around

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Speaker 4: than you know, compared to back back in twenty eighteen,

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Speaker 4: twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 2: Run. We'll leave it there. Thank you so much for

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Speaker 2: being with us. Aarun Sundrum, a vice president of equity

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Speaker 2: research at cfr A joining us here on the Daybreak

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Speaker 2: Asia podcast. Tomorrow's US jobs report will be the focal

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Speaker 2: point for markets and the Fed as well. Joining me

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Speaker 2: now for a preview is Keith Cannon. He is senior

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Speaker 2: portfolio manager and partner at Global To Investments, joining us

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Speaker 2: from Atlanta. If you look at the consensus estimate right now, Keith,

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Speaker 2: when we're looking for non farm payrolls to rise by

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Speaker 2: around one hundred and seventy three thousand, that doesn't sound

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Speaker 2: like a lot. What do you think it says if

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Speaker 2: that were to come to pass, what would it say

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Speaker 2: about the labor market?

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Speaker 5: Oh dog, and thanks again for having me. We've done

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Speaker 5: a lot of work around you know, what's going on

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Speaker 5: in the labor market from a perspective of we're seeing

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Speaker 5: on the margin softness that hasn't really materialized into.

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Speaker 1: The AUGORICM numbers.

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Speaker 5: If we do hit one seven as come the sweet

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Speaker 5: spot we have been, you know, the course of the

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Speaker 5: last year or so if you look on a full

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Speaker 5: week trailing basis, So that's kind of powerful the course.

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Speaker 5: Anything shy of that, we feel like we'll ride on

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Speaker 5: markets and probably reinstitute some expectations of a more aggressive fad.

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Speaker 5: And also on the alternative, as we've seen a couple

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Speaker 5: of beasts that were hired and expected for the past

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Speaker 5: several months, anything much higher than two hundred to ten

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Speaker 5: could bring into question whether or not the inflation will

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Speaker 5: be taming. Of course, that it's going to come back

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Speaker 5: to what wage both does within the report, but also

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Speaker 5: just what stands the FED has and becoming more hawkish

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Speaker 5: and if their hawkishness is more warranted given a very

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Speaker 5: tight level market, which they've communicated over the last couple

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Speaker 5: of years.

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Speaker 2: How do you define an aggressive FED? Is that a

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Speaker 2: FED that stays higher for longer or is that a

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Speaker 2: FED that potentially could hike rates?

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Speaker 5: Well, that's so the potential for a rate hike we

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Speaker 5: really are starting to creep into some of vir expectations,

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Speaker 5: not necessarily the odds on bet at this point, but

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Speaker 5: we're noticing the rhetoric tilt a little from from the

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Speaker 5: Federal Reserve VERET. They say very concerned with the re

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Speaker 5: emergence of inflation, as they have been over the course

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Speaker 5: of this tightening cycle, and they don't want to be

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Speaker 5: too early in that three three and a half percent

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Speaker 5: inflation and become the new norm.

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Speaker 1: I think they still want to remain to keep pressure and.

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Speaker 5: As long as the inflation rate is below the fair

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Speaker 5: funds rate, that continues to be the case of restricted

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Speaker 5: policy remained in place. I think they want to keep

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Speaker 5: it restrictive as long as they can continue to see progress.

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Speaker 5: But a tight living mark kind of leads to that

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Speaker 5: progress diminishing in a way. They will make us more

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Speaker 5: concern with a fair staying higher for longer, and again

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Speaker 5: if it remains much tighter, possibly highs being priced into

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Speaker 5: what we expect from the Fed to do over the

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Speaker 5: next twelve months.

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Speaker 1: So it's a very pivotal point right now in the

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Speaker 1: Fed side.

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Speaker 2: One of our colleagues here at Bloomberg had a very

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Speaker 2: interesting conversation today with Treasury Secretary Besson and one of

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Speaker 2: the things that he's stressed was that the Trump administration

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Speaker 2: is not really focused on whether the FED will cut

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Speaker 2: its policy rate. The focus for the administration is instead

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Speaker 2: on achieving a lower tenure treasury yield. How does that

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Speaker 2: square with your expectations of what we may see from

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Speaker 2: the Trump administration, I.

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Speaker 1: Think, and that was a fascinating interview.

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Speaker 5: Couple of ways to get the tenure treasure rate lower,

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Speaker 5: whether inflation expectations come down, or growth expectations come down,

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Speaker 5: or some combination of the ball and both of those scenarios.

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Speaker 1: From a policy standpoint, there is.

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Speaker 5: A very delicate balance as to how we achieved those

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Speaker 5: and with race being you know, inflation being where it is,

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Speaker 5: that's really not anything that any any central bank or

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Speaker 5: any government can fix in one fell swoop.

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Speaker 1: So the focus on the tenure makes it makes it feel.

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Speaker 5: A lot less month to month and quarter to quarter

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Speaker 5: meeting the meeting from the fast standpoint, so there's some

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Speaker 5: relief from that regard, but we've seen the tenure take

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Speaker 5: on the mind of its own. It's not anything that

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Speaker 5: any one entity or federal reserve can can really control.

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Speaker 5: So you know, we're that interview was really perked our

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Speaker 5: ears up to see what they're communicating as a focus

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Speaker 5: is going to be almost to pivot away from what

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Speaker 5: they think the market is thinking, which is more shorter terminature.

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Speaker 2: The other thing that the Treasury Secretary addressed in that

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Speaker 2: interview was a strong US dollar policy under the Trump administration.

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Speaker 2: Bessin said it was completely intact.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: I know you look at the earnings and the quality

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Speaker 2: of earnings for the big multinationals in particular. So the

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Speaker 2: question is whether the dollar is going to be a

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Speaker 2: significant headwind here going forward.

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Speaker 5: Just every economics textbook tells you that that is the case.

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Speaker 5: When a stronger dollar affect international and global companies there

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Speaker 5: and their overseas operations. It depends on the mixture of

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Speaker 5: how we get to a stronger dollar. If we are

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Speaker 5: talking about you know, inflation really aiding that path, or

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Speaker 5: tariffs kind of pushing pushing the dollar higher. There's so

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Speaker 5: many ways to get to a stronger dollar from where

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Speaker 5: we are now, and it's really hard to say, you know,

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Speaker 5: whether or not you know in the national marketplace would

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Speaker 5: be better off or worse off with a stronger dollars.

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Speaker 5: Two almost done a wrong because there's.

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Speaker 1: So many pathways to get there, we're not.

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Speaker 5: As concerned with the absolute level over the next twelve

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Speaker 5: months mrgus I would necessarily in the path to get there,

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Speaker 5: so you know, the quarter to quarter earnings and what

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Speaker 5: we can pick up from these corporations. Then their plans

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Speaker 5: for capital working capital expenditures going forward is going to

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Speaker 5: play a role in that as well, So you know,

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Speaker 5: we're less concerned about the absolute level of the dollar

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Speaker 5: and more concerned with the path to get there and

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Speaker 5: whether it's geopolitical driven or here. Strength here in the

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Speaker 5: US without the rest of the world into a session

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Speaker 5: is also important as well.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned tariffs there, Keith, and what the conventional wisdom

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Speaker 2: has been that this really has the potential to drive

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Speaker 2: inflation higher. Tariff policy I'm referring to best during this

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Speaker 2: interview said that there could be a small one time

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Speaker 2: price adjustment as a result of these tariffs. How do

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Speaker 2: you view tariff policy as it relates to inflation.

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Speaker 5: There's typically of one one adjustment if the market is

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Speaker 5: convinced that there's one set of tariffs. If they're in

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Speaker 5: the market things, this is one of potentially many or

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Speaker 5: several or more than one. After this, then there's not

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Speaker 5: one adjustment the market continues to pursue that equilibrium where

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Speaker 5: the tariffs kind of between multiinational corporation as far as

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Speaker 5: nations in there in the Southern Bank. So if the

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Speaker 5: expectation is for more trash down the road, there won't

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Speaker 5: be one adjustment.

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Speaker 1: If there is clear communication.

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Speaker 5: And clarity around the tariff policy and that there's one

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Speaker 5: and it's one of them for sure, then that's the

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Speaker 5: case for one adjustment. Problem is I think that that

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Speaker 5: is opposite of what the typical negotiation is that we've

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Speaker 5: seen on part of this administration in this administration as

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Speaker 5: well as the last time up.

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Speaker 1: So I think those two are at play.

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Speaker 5: When negotiates well doesn't typically set the markets up to

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Speaker 5: trade well from expectations of inflation and how the market

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Speaker 5: adjust the tariffs. So those too are odds right now.

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Speaker 5: We're interested to see which.

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Speaker 1: One whins battle.

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Speaker 5: Going forward of whether the marketing space terastic, can continue

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Speaker 5: to increase or we can price in wind fail school

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Speaker 5: and less inflation over time.

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Speaker 2: So what is the level of confidence that you have

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Speaker 2: right now that there will be a successful negotiation on

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Speaker 2: the trade front to the extent that there will not

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Speaker 2: be an increase in the tariff that has been applied

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Speaker 2: on China and that the US will not apply tariffs

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Speaker 2: on Mexico and Canada.

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Speaker 5: We don't think this anyway unless you're somehow plugged into

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Speaker 5: the inner workings of these negotiations to have a lot

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Speaker 5: of certainty better than a coin flip certainty of any

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Speaker 5: path forward when it comes to our negotiations with China

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Speaker 5: and the terraff polities between the two nations. So, I

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Speaker 5: think the lack of confidence and the lack of certainty

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Speaker 5: is a healthy check on how we view.

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Speaker 1: The world markets.

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Speaker 5: And we're comfortable being uncertain until we have more clarity

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Speaker 5: and more certainty coming out to the public as far

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Speaker 5: as how those negotiations are going. So we're comfortably uncomfortable

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Speaker 5: with our less than fifty percent certainty.

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Speaker 1: On where things land.

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Speaker 5: And because anything beyond that, we feel like an over

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Speaker 5: confidence is, which is where you get in trouble.

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Speaker 2: All right, we'll leave it there. Good stuff, Keith, Thank

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Speaker 2: you so much. Keith Buchanan there. He is senior portfolio

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Speaker 2: manager also a partner at Globalt Investments. Joining us from

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Speaker 2: Atlanta here on the Daybreak Asia podcast. Thanks for listening

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Speaker 2: to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition podcast.

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Speaker 2: Each weekday, we look at the story shaping markets, finance,

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Speaker 2: and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You can find us

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00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:39,960
Speaker 2: on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere

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Speaker 2: else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for insight on

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Speaker 2: the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia.

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Speaker 2: I'm Doug Prisoner and this is Bloomberg