Speaker 1: Broadcasting live from the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio, the George
Speaker 1: Washington Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty.
Speaker 2: Arm Strong and he.
Speaker 3: Armstrong and Getty.
Speaker 4: But pardon me that, Advice President. The question was, how
Speaker 4: are you going to pay for it?
Speaker 5: Well, one of the things I'm going to make sure
Speaker 5: that the richest among us who can afford it, pay
Speaker 5: their fair share in taxes. It is not right that
Speaker 5: teachers and nurses and firefighters are paying a higher tax
Speaker 5: rate than billionaires and the biggest corporations.
Speaker 2: And I plan on making that fair.
Speaker 6: But we're dealing with the real world here.
Speaker 5: But the real world includes how are you going to
Speaker 5: get this to Congress? You know, when you talk quietly
Speaker 5: with a lot of folks in cong they know exactly
Speaker 5: what I'm talking about because their constituents though exactly what
Speaker 5: I'm talking about. Their constituents are those firefighters and teachers
Speaker 5: and nurses. Their constituents are middle class, hardworking folks.
Speaker 1: That was one of the few times last night that
Speaker 1: I was bothered by because I thought the sixty minutes
Speaker 1: was more aggressive than I was expecting to them be
Speaker 1: more follow ups. But I wish instead of accepting her
Speaker 1: BS line and acting like, well, the reason that's BS
Speaker 1: is because you couldn't get it through Congress.
Speaker 2: No, the reason it's BS is because it's BS.
Speaker 1: It's BS that the rich pay more than their fair share,
Speaker 1: and it's ridiculous to keep leaning on that as the
Speaker 1: answer to our fiscal problems.
Speaker 3: Also from the Department of Populist clap traps, she said
Speaker 3: billionaires in America's great corporations. Everybody into corporations pays taxes,
Speaker 3: and raising corporate taxes makes goods more expensive, it cuts
Speaker 3: down on investment, it hurts your furrow. One it comes
Speaker 3: out of the paychecks of the people who work there.
Speaker 3: A corporation is just a collection of humans. Well, so
Speaker 3: that's such a dog.
Speaker 1: And what she said about when you talk to people
Speaker 1: in Congress, you know, in private, it's the opposite of
Speaker 1: what she said. You talk to people in Congress in private,
Speaker 1: and they would say, well, yeah, we can't, We're not
Speaker 1: gonna raise taxes on corporations or you know, try to
Speaker 1: figure out how to tax unrealized gains because it would
Speaker 1: doom the economy. But this plays well in public. So
Speaker 1: I'm willing to go on stage and say originally to
Speaker 1: pay the fair share, because it polls well.
Speaker 7: Those who have been blessed the most, who have disproportionately
Speaker 7: attracted by whatever skill, more and more from the national wealth,
Speaker 7: they're gonna have to share more of that.
Speaker 3: That is one of the worst utterances in the history
Speaker 3: of American politics. The former governor of California Jerry Brown,
Speaker 3: suggesting that if you are, for instance, a successful entrepreneur,
Speaker 3: you build a small business, you employee dozens of people,
Speaker 3: you feed your clothes, you medicate them, You put out
Speaker 3: products that people.
Speaker 2: Want to buy, and they buy them from you.
Speaker 3: You've extracted from the public wealth.
Speaker 1: Right, you took something from someone else, it would be
Speaker 1: their money if you hadn't taken it, Which is as
Speaker 1: illiterate economically as you could possibly get.
Speaker 2: Carl Marx wandered away from that, muttering.
Speaker 3: That's not how it works, dude, that's unbelievable anyway. So
Speaker 3: we could certainly torture your ears with more kamm la
Speaker 3: on sixty minutes and mean, we may on and off
Speaker 3: throughout the show, But that actually leads rather beautifully to
Speaker 3: a new study that came across about income inequality. And
Speaker 3: I found it really interesting. I hope you do too.
Speaker 3: It's you know, the concept of income inequality just drives
Speaker 3: so much of our politics these days, and it's so
Speaker 3: frustrating if you understand how economies actually work to listen
Speaker 3: to it.
Speaker 2: But I really ought to be used to it at
Speaker 2: this point in my life. So there's a.
Speaker 3: Big study from the National Bureau of Economic Research from
Speaker 3: the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis, Vanderbilt University, Princeton.
Speaker 3: I mean, this is a big, big, you know, the
Speaker 3: high Class study. It used a rich vein of survey
Speaker 3: data tracking individuals far back as nineteen seventy nine. They
Speaker 3: found that a major determinant hello again that word is
Speaker 3: determinant of total lifetime hours worked is individual choice. Oh,
Speaker 3: I'm sorry, I kind of started in the middle. I
Speaker 3: skipped a part i apology. The more you work over
Speaker 3: your lifetime, the more you earn. Now, so far, so
Speaker 3: obvious as they write, but the surprises lurk, and an
Speaker 3: explanation that's more complex than you'd think. They found that
Speaker 3: a major determinant of total lifetime hours worked is individual choice.
Speaker 2: Some people just.
Speaker 3: Prefer to work more, while others might prioritize other activities.
Speaker 3: But it's not just that they worked more. The paper
Speaker 3: finds that those who work more earn more because they
Speaker 3: accumulate more skills during the extra time they work. The
Speaker 3: overlapping effects of different preferences for work and different levels
Speaker 3: of skill acquisition account for a hefty share of overall
Speaker 3: differences in lifetime earnings, and it seems to operate independently
Speaker 3: of other factors like level of education or skills, or
Speaker 3: how much money you had before you entered the labor force.
Speaker 3: In other words, income inequality is in part a matter
Speaker 3: of choice rather than an intractable economic or social force.
Speaker 1: Sorry, socialists, well, trying to make that fly in a
Speaker 1: populous era, even if it's true. But it's always these
Speaker 1: sort of things are just tough for me because of
Speaker 1: our career or what do we do for a living.
Speaker 1: I just it's such a not regular job. I always
Speaker 1: have to try to picture a regular job because I
Speaker 1: can work more hours. I'm not picking up any skills.
Speaker 1: I mean, I got no skills. I started with no skills.
Speaker 1: I've gained no skills. I could do two radio shows
Speaker 1: a day. I still have no skills. But so for
Speaker 1: regular jobs, though you put in more hours and you
Speaker 1: pick up more skills.
Speaker 3: And that's where become more useful, of course, of right
Speaker 3: different ways well, and honestly, if you were to put
Speaker 3: in another ten hours per week and devote it to
Speaker 3: learning video editing, we might be able to have a
Speaker 3: more robust video presence on YouTube or something like that.
Speaker 3: But anyway, the other thing that bothers me about some
Speaker 3: of the income inequality analysis is that it frequently casts
Speaker 3: people who've made deliberate and to me completely defensible decisions
Speaker 3: as somehow victims. Right, I mean, the obvious thing would
Speaker 3: be a woman who decides I'm not going to bust
Speaker 3: my ass to be a big law lawyer and work
Speaker 3: seventy hours a week. I want to be a mom
Speaker 3: and I'm going to practice law, but on my terms
Speaker 3: because I think my life will be a better life,
Speaker 3: more satisfying service to God.
Speaker 2: However, you define a good.
Speaker 3: Life if I don't entirely devote my energies to making
Speaker 3: more money, And that woman is frequently portrayed as a
Speaker 3: victim of something when I, personally, for what it's worth,
Speaker 3: thinks she's made a brilliant decision.
Speaker 1: Right, or even maybe slightly more subtle as somebody who's
Speaker 1: moved around the country and I often think about the decisions,
Speaker 1: those decisions and how they affected my life and my kids'
Speaker 1: lives and that sort of stuff.
Speaker 2: It's been good for me career wise.
Speaker 1: But so if I had made the decision, you know,
Speaker 1: I'm going to stay in the area where all my
Speaker 1: family is, so I have the close family ties and
Speaker 1: all the fun stuff that comes with that, I'd be
Speaker 1: making a lot less money. That's not I wouldn't be
Speaker 1: a victim of something. I chose a different lifestyle that
Speaker 1: maybe would have been better.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I agree completely.
Speaker 3: I have a close relative whose point of view is
Speaker 3: I will make enough to get by, and I will
Speaker 3: spend the rest of my time exploring art and nature.
Speaker 2: And friends and whatever else.
Speaker 3: That was not my priority really as a young man,
Speaker 3: partly because I was raising kids and everything, like I'd
Speaker 3: better build an s egg because I was terrified all
Speaker 3: the time of letting my family down. But again, it's
Speaker 3: not a question of victimhood. It is a question, over
Speaker 3: and over and over again, of choices. But you know,
Speaker 3: it's so easy to throw back self righteously. Oh so
Speaker 3: people are choosing to be poor, The white man says,
Speaker 3: they're choosing to be Okay, right, and you lose, you're
Speaker 3: done at that. So I'm not bragging on this, I
Speaker 3: swear I'm not. It's just the way I made when
Speaker 3: I was taking econ classes back in college, which was
Speaker 3: roughly the horse was just giving way to the motor car.
Speaker 2: You did all your problems on an abacus.
Speaker 3: Yeah, there were lessons in principles that the professors would
Speaker 3: teach us that I was sitting.
Speaker 2: I would more than once.
Speaker 3: I sat there thinking real people don't act like that.
Speaker 3: It's not like I knew more than them, and I
Speaker 3: didn't form up some revolutionary theory of economics or I
Speaker 3: just went off chasing girls and drinking beer. But anyway,
Speaker 3: I I thought this was so interesting. The economics of
Speaker 3: identity is a growing field. A Nobel Prize winning economist,
Speaker 3: a couple of guys you've never heard of, were I
Speaker 3: came up with this principle that identity may be the
Speaker 3: most important economic decision people make. How you view your
Speaker 3: role in the world will affect your choices. Yet even
Speaker 3: the great economic thinkers of academic history, you know, economics
Speaker 3: in general, had not incorporated identity into a formal economic model.
Speaker 3: Sociologists and psychologists, they spent half their time about you
Speaker 3: know your self image, what image you want to project
Speaker 3: to others, you know what groups you're part of, as
Speaker 3: being like incredibly important. But economics had ignored it, and
Speaker 3: they talk about being a Trump voter, Harris voter. It's
Speaker 3: an expression of identity that goes along with many other
Speaker 3: expressions from the car you drive to the clothes you wear,
Speaker 3: and it's it's there's a lot of social pressure in it.
Speaker 3: And he mentions the two economists who came up with
Speaker 3: this idea, your identity can be buttressed, threatened, changed, or
Speaker 3: influenced by others, not merely by your own preferences and
Speaker 3: decisions that who am I, how do I want others
Speaker 3: to see me?
Speaker 2: And who are we?
Speaker 3: So these two economists, for instance, talked about how being
Speaker 3: an academic economist is a social category and among the
Speaker 3: prescriptions for academic economists might include owning a practical car,
Speaker 3: wearing comfortable shoes, and living a certain I'm an academic
Speaker 3: economist lifestyle. And if you were to run out and
Speaker 3: buy a Porsche or a pair of five hundred dollars
Speaker 3: loafers or something like that, not only would it cause
Speaker 3: a real economist to feel bad, but you'd immediately be
Speaker 3: scorned and mocked by your colleagues.
Speaker 1: Wow, so you're supposed to be in a Honda accord
Speaker 1: and where where you know something you got at the mall,
Speaker 1: at the walking store that that that fits in with
Speaker 1: the whole identity thing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, a couple other examples.
Speaker 3: Uh So, this model posits that individuals gain from both
Speaker 3: material outcomes and actions that conform to their identities. In
Speaker 3: the labor market, workers are motivated by wages as well
Speaker 3: as by how well their jobs aligned with their identity.
Speaker 3: A corporate job might offer financial stability, but if it
Speaker 3: conflicts with an individual's identity as an environmentalist, for instance,
Speaker 3: or an iconoclastic artist or whatever, that's mismatch can lead
Speaker 3: to dissatisfication, dissatisfaction, and underperformance. In this vein, trying to
Speaker 3: train coal miners to be nurses may be futile. And
Speaker 3: there's there's a great deal more to this. I love
Speaker 3: to draw on and on about this stuff.
Speaker 7: Yeah.
Speaker 1: That that's that's damned interesting. That is not thought about enough.
Speaker 1: Whenever I hear, you know, teaching coal miners to code
Speaker 1: or whatever that politicians throw around, that sort of stuff.
Speaker 1: I know enough working class people in in my life.
Speaker 1: That what an identity that is? This is this is
Speaker 1: who I am. I'm a farmer, I'm a you know.
Speaker 1: I I work with my hands. I work outside to
Speaker 1: do whatever I would. I would hang myself before I
Speaker 1: would sit in an office in code all day long.
Speaker 1: So the idea that I mean, because of the identity
Speaker 1: stuff you're talking about, this is not just just to
Speaker 1: make a living. This is who I am, this is
Speaker 1: what This is what I projected the world. This is
Speaker 1: what I want to project to my family and friends.
Speaker 3: Thanks Matt, Jack, you hit me with one of the
Speaker 3: best examples of this I've ever heard. Michael's getting nervous
Speaker 3: because we need to take a break. I'll keep it short.
Speaker 3: But at one point we were talking about the concept
Speaker 3: of keeping it real, how athletes and rappers and all
Speaker 3: they they got to act like they're still of the
Speaker 3: hood or what have you. And and it's an interesting
Speaker 3: topic because sometimes it hurts you in your life or
Speaker 3: your earning capabilities or whatever. But at one point I'd
Speaker 3: mentioned to Jack that I had always done my own
Speaker 3: yard work, gardening, mowing, trimming, blowing, all of it because
Speaker 3: I couldn't stand the idea of me being the guy
Speaker 3: who hires a gardener, and you said, you're keeping it
Speaker 3: real right for your people, that's exactly Yeah, yeah, we
Speaker 3: don't have servants. And finally, the yard was just too
Speaker 3: peg and I would have spend all my time doing
Speaker 3: it and I would have neglected my children. So I
Speaker 3: hired a guy for you know, much less than it
Speaker 3: would have cost me in my life. But yeah, that
Speaker 3: concept of keeping it real, your self image, your identitybody,
Speaker 3: it would affect your economic decisions.
Speaker 2: It's enormous. It was completely missing from economics. Yeah, it's
Speaker 2: the way we're built. Interesting.
Speaker 1: I want to talk about the Nobel Prize in uh
Speaker 1: that came out today, and also an overview of the polling,
Speaker 1: not in individual polls or anything like that that I
Speaker 1: guarantee you will find interesting.
Speaker 2: All on the way.
Speaker 3: Well, listen to this McDonald's issuing major beef producers for
Speaker 3: allegedly conspiring to limit their supplies.
Speaker 2: Meanwhile, Arby's is like this does affect us? Wow? Wow?
Speaker 2: What is it? It just doesn't affect us? What is it?
Speaker 3: What the late night guys war on Arby's on a
Speaker 3: fine meat he sandwich purveyor.
Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't know, I don't get it.
Speaker 2: I've enjoyed many delicious sandwich at Arby's. I agree.
Speaker 1: So the Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to a
Speaker 1: couple of scientists working on AI, John Hopfield and Jeffrey Hinton,
Speaker 1: who we've talked about before, who's often considered the godfather
Speaker 1: of AI or something like that, have showed a completely
Speaker 1: new way for us to use computers to aid and
Speaker 1: guide us in solving problems. The committee said, I felt
Speaker 1: like this is the sort of thing that's going to
Speaker 1: be looked back on years from now, kind of like Oppenheimer,
Speaker 1: you know, cracking the code for making a bomb. Oh,
Speaker 1: what a breakthrough for mankind nuclear energy. Look everybody, and yeah,
Speaker 1: they have showed a completely new way for us to
Speaker 1: use computers to guide and tackle me any of the
Speaker 1: challenges society faces. Machine learning based on the human brain
Speaker 1: is currently revolutionary, revolutionizing science, engineering, and daily life. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's the daily life part of it. I think that
Speaker 1: most of us are worried about and like it might
Speaker 1: render the need to work completely. You know, they will
Speaker 1: go away, and it will restructure society in a way
Speaker 1: that has never even been considered in the history of mankind,
Speaker 1: but yeah, good for you. In the Nobel Price, I
Speaker 1: just saw it really downplayed the significance of what this
Speaker 1: could be. So I don't know, And it was all
Speaker 1: cheery talk. That's what seemed to her to me. It
Speaker 1: was just all happy cheery. Isn't this great?
Speaker 3: If only we could find a wise and beneficent, magnificent
Speaker 3: philosopher king who could judge will this overall would be
Speaker 3: a good thing or a bad thing? Because I'm not
Speaker 3: sure Cherry's still out.
Speaker 2: How much time I got, Michael? Maybe four months with
Speaker 2: the Yeah, no, you got about a minute.
Speaker 1: It's not really long enough. We do this all the time,
Speaker 1: starting to really drive me crazy. The stuff I most
Speaker 1: want to talk about we leave no time for. How
Speaker 1: do we fix that problem?
Speaker 2: Is it fix them alone?
Speaker 7: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Sure, I don't think it is. We've been doing this
Speaker 2: for the next years. We get there years. There's no
Speaker 2: way we can current correct our mistake. You need to
Speaker 2: leave behind your preconceptions, man, old dog new tricks doesn't work.
Speaker 2: Just do what you want to do. Had no time, yes,
Speaker 2: time for this.
Speaker 3: You brought up nuclear power. We are It's like most
Speaker 3: people don't want to think about death. Iran is working
Speaker 3: as hard as it can to get the atomic bomb
Speaker 3: as quickly as it can, and it's run by Islamic
Speaker 3: lunatics l l L.
Speaker 2: Nobody wants to talk about it or do anything about it.
Speaker 1: The Secretary of State set himself that there are a
Speaker 1: couple of weeks from breakout.
Speaker 2: If they decide they want to do it, a couple
Speaker 2: of weeks.
Speaker 1: If we're and decide, go let's get a nuclear weapon,
Speaker 1: it would take them a couple of weeks to have
Speaker 1: a nuclear weapon.
Speaker 2: Not amazing.
Speaker 3: And if old weird Beard decides to end the Jews,
Speaker 3: he's got the power to do it.
Speaker 2: Good Lord, hold weird.
Speaker 6: Beard Armstrong and getdy.
Speaker 4: A quarter of registered voters still say they don't know you.
Speaker 4: They don't know what makes you tick, and why do
Speaker 4: you think that is what's the disconnect.
Speaker 5: It's an election bill, and I take it seriously that
Speaker 5: I have to earn everyone's vote. This is an election
Speaker 5: for president of the United States. No one should be
Speaker 5: able to take for granted that they can just declare
Speaker 5: themselves a candidate and automatically receive support.
Speaker 2: You have to earn it.
Speaker 5: And that's what I intend to do.
Speaker 1: That I don't I wish I could put my finger
Speaker 1: on why her answers bother me so much, but they do.
Speaker 1: Her tone of voice is this is obvious, it's simple
Speaker 1: and very impressive.
Speaker 3: When it's never any of those, No, it is not,
Speaker 3: it's it's usually trite. It's no selection bill. What nobody
Speaker 3: knows what you believe? Like you don't have any You've.
Speaker 2: Got to earn the votes. What what?
Speaker 1: But the question was, why do there's a court or
Speaker 1: why do a court of the people say they don't
Speaker 1: know who you are.
Speaker 2: So you haven't earned them yet? Is that what you're saying?
Speaker 1: Is I wish she was trying to say anyway, I
Speaker 1: want to get to this overarching polling stuff, which I
Speaker 1: think you will find interesting.
Speaker 2: I really do. But here's a little more. He followed
Speaker 2: up on that.
Speaker 6: Tell you what your critics and the column this say.
Speaker 4: Okay, they say, the reason so many voters don't know
Speaker 4: you is that you have changed your position on so
Speaker 4: many things.
Speaker 6: You are against fracking, now you're for it.
Speaker 4: You supported looser immigration policies, now you're tightening them up.
Speaker 4: You're for medicare for all now you're not so many
Speaker 4: that people don't truly know what you believe or what
Speaker 4: you stand for, and I know you've heard that.
Speaker 5: In the last four years, I have been Vice president
Speaker 5: of the United States, and I have been traveling our country
Speaker 5: and I have been listening to folks and seeking what
Speaker 5: is possible in terms of common ground.
Speaker 6: I believe in building consensus.
Speaker 2: We are diverse people geographically regionally.
Speaker 5: In terms of where we are in our backgrounds, and
Speaker 5: what the American people do want is that we have
Speaker 5: leaders who can build consensus where we can figure out
Speaker 5: compromise and understand it's not a bad thing as long
Speaker 5: as you don't compromise your values to fine common sense solutions.
Speaker 2: And that has been my approach.
Speaker 3: She's completely full of crap. And I think you're supposed
Speaker 3: to call her a mid brain these days.
Speaker 2: Oh, I don't know that.
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, yeah, they're just there's so many ways
Speaker 3: she could answered that question more skillfully and.
Speaker 2: She knows words. Yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 1: That's a tough one to answer because you flip flopped
Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty degrees on like six major topics.
Speaker 3: Well, then think she's a midbrain. Is she was onto
Speaker 3: something there? The idea that hey, we've got to reach
Speaker 3: consensus and compromise and she could have said, Look, as
Speaker 3: a senator, I'm one of a hundred, and I was
Speaker 3: advocating for a particular point of view. But I'm running
Speaker 3: to be the president of all Americans, so yeah, I'm not.
Speaker 3: I'm going to try to find ways to bring the
Speaker 3: sides together. So yeah, if I sound more moderate now,
Speaker 3: it's because I want to be a moderate present it's
Speaker 3: an election. Bill, you know what, given how stupid politics
Speaker 3: is r am you know, her rambling nonsense answer, maybe
Speaker 3: that's a better one.
Speaker 2: I don't know. Selection of our lifetime.
Speaker 1: I was pretty happy with sixty minutes Bill Whitaker. There
Speaker 1: are a couple of times that I really like he
Speaker 1: accepted her answer in a way that I really hated.
Speaker 1: But he did the what Tim Russer used to do
Speaker 1: on Meet the Press. You follow up and then like
Speaker 1: basically the second time they do their non answer, you
Speaker 1: let it lay there with like, Okay, you told people
Speaker 1: you don't want to answer this question, so we will
Speaker 1: move on. And I think that's fine. I mean, he
Speaker 1: gave her, you know, two chances there. People don't know
Speaker 1: who you are. Here's all the things you flip flopped on.
Speaker 1: She did her weird Kamala Harris Circular something or other,
Speaker 1: and okay, I think that did her more harm than good.
Speaker 2: That segment.
Speaker 1: It led a whole bunch of people that might not
Speaker 1: have known that that she flipped off, flip flopped on
Speaker 1: all those issues, and she didn't really have a reason
Speaker 1: why she did well.
Speaker 3: I'm reminded of the post debate analysis or polling, in
Speaker 3: which I was quite gratified even though Trump was awful
Speaker 3: to hear the number of folks undecided voters who said,
Speaker 3: you know, yeah, Trump was awful, but she didn't say anything.
Speaker 3: She didn't say anything specific. She didn't give me any
Speaker 3: clue as to how she would govern. And I think,
Speaker 3: you know, last night was another go round to that
Speaker 3: sort of thing.
Speaker 2: It's an election. Though. What'd you think of Taylor's outfit
Speaker 2: last night? Didn't see it?
Speaker 1: Pretty demuror.
Speaker 2: Oh you didn't see it. I didn't see it. Take
Speaker 2: any of the follow up coverage from the New York Post.
Speaker 2: She's back in the stadium.
Speaker 1: It looks like she and Travis have worked things out
Speaker 1: if they were on the rocks, because she wasn't the
Speaker 1: last two games.
Speaker 3: Ah No, okay, I watched the Manning cast mostly for
Speaker 3: some of the first half. They did have a shout
Speaker 3: of Travis sitting on the bench, and I did say,
Speaker 3: by Gully, he's a handsome man. No wonder Taylor's happy
Speaker 3: to be with him. But that was my only thought
Speaker 3: of her for like the last three weeks.
Speaker 1: So, yes, Michael, I was just thinking, the Chiefs are
Speaker 1: five and o though, and she hasn't been at the
Speaker 1: games if she if they start losing, they're gonna blame her.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, she's a bad loss. They should. Yeah, that's just science.
Speaker 1: To the presidential election. I thought this was interesting. So
Speaker 1: the New York Times had one of their biggest polls
Speaker 1: in the field. As we get closer to the election
Speaker 1: four weeks from today, it's actually starting to get pretty close.
Speaker 1: And it was mostly good news for Kamala Harris. She
Speaker 1: increased her lead nationally a little bit, and she continues
Speaker 1: to have higher approval ratings. She'd closed the gap on
Speaker 1: the economy and the border. How why, I have no idea,
Speaker 1: but it is and that's that. But here's so if
Speaker 1: you're a Harris fan, you'd be pretty happy with that.
Speaker 1: Here's from Mark Alprin's newsletter today, and he talks to
Speaker 1: people that have their own internal polls a lot, and
Speaker 1: he can't, you know, flat out say what they are,
Speaker 1: because you know that's not cool. But he characterizes this stuff,
Speaker 1: and that's one of the reasons I like reading his newsletter.
Speaker 1: He writes today, there are many reasons to believe that
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris can win this election. The cross tabs and
Speaker 1: issues questions and the times today are strong for her.
Speaker 1: But there is a group of Republicans and Democrats with
Speaker 1: data some without, who now believed that Trump will win
Speaker 1: the election handily. Adherence to the point of view, whether
Speaker 1: they are found in mar Lago, congressional campaign offices, Wall Street,
Speaker 1: or just in DC are in front of a computer
Speaker 1: screen that looks at reams of data. They might turn
Speaker 1: out to be wrong, but their current certainty or near
Speaker 1: certainty is striking, both for its quite confidence and because
Speaker 1: at the moment there's no analog on the Harris will
Speaker 1: win side. So he's seeing a number of people Republicans
Speaker 1: and Democrats with quite a bit of certainty that Trump's
Speaker 1: gonna win, but nobody with certainty that Harris is gonna win.
Speaker 1: I'm highlighting this perspective today for at least three reasons.
Speaker 1: One it's interesting and important that it exists to it
Speaker 1: might be correct. Three Harris supporters, rather than being upset,
Speaker 1: should be prepared for an outcome that will rock their
Speaker 1: worlds if they think that she can't lose. There are
Speaker 1: a lot of ways to qualify and quantify this point
Speaker 1: of view. But I think that's interesting too.
Speaker 2: The people that have the most inside information.
Speaker 1: There are people that believe Trump's absolutely gonna win, but
Speaker 1: nobody believed that Harris is absolutely gonna win.
Speaker 2: Huh. I wonder what they're looking at, well, Helperton.
Speaker 3: If Helpern wasn't such a sober and smart analyst of
Speaker 3: this sort of stuff, I'd be more skeptical than I am.
Speaker 3: He seems to think they have really good, solid data
Speaker 3: and we're rationale for their point of view.
Speaker 2: And I will never forget Carl.
Speaker 1: Rove, right, Yeah, election night, what was it, twenty twenty twelve,
Speaker 1: twenty twelve, And that's why my area goes, That's why
Speaker 1: my brother became as cynical as he did. I sent
Speaker 1: a picture of us with Carl Rove from the convention,
Speaker 1: and he's like, I don't want to see that. He's
Speaker 1: still met at Carlolf Because Carl Rove spent that entire cycle,
Speaker 1: if you don't remember it, with his whiteboar kind of laughing,
Speaker 1: chuckling at all. The polling was, the polling was wrong.
Speaker 1: They're missing the Democrats. Look at how many Democrats they
Speaker 1: pulled versus Republicans. You're gonna find out an election night.
Speaker 1: And he had a lot of people convinced boys that
Speaker 1: they're gonna be surprised come election night. Mitt Romney is
Speaker 1: actually ahead, there's no and the polls turn out to
Speaker 1: be the actual poll The voting turned out to be
Speaker 1: exactly what the poles were saying.
Speaker 2: And so that blew up a lot of these models
Speaker 2: for a lot of people by kicking the gut.
Speaker 1: But I think Karl Orb had a particular reason to
Speaker 1: talk to the Fox crowd and keep them happy through
Speaker 1: the whole election. That's not really Mark Halprin's model. Oh,
Speaker 1: I'm trying to prepare. This is not just a normal election,
Speaker 1: as everybody knows. I'm trying to prepare for what it's
Speaker 1: going to be like in this country emotionally. If Trump wins, Oh,
Speaker 1: there's no preparing for that, and that's what I'm hoping for.
Speaker 1: But if Trump wins, it's going to be.
Speaker 2: It's going to be.
Speaker 1: Well, Halpern himself says there's going to be a mental
Speaker 1: health crisis coast to coast for a certain crowd.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, that's undeniable. Yeah, it will be.
Speaker 3: And that's not like a whimsical description of it, like
Speaker 3: people will be freaked out and pissed off. No, there
Speaker 3: will be an actual mental health christ Oh.
Speaker 2: Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes.
Speaker 1: There will be articles in the New York Times about
Speaker 1: how to deal with the new reality.
Speaker 2: And it's that sort of thing.
Speaker 3: Five million news XANAX prescriptions written today for the fourth
Speaker 3: day in a row following the election of Donald Trump.
Speaker 3: Katy Perry's crying, Madonna's crying.
Speaker 1: But it's going to be way beyond that the way
Speaker 1: it was when he beat Hillary. I think it's going
Speaker 1: to be a level we haven't seen. Like you just said,
Speaker 1: I think you're right, there's no preparing for this.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, and given the left's willingness to burn it
Speaker 3: all down if they think they're in our self righteously
Speaker 3: righteous position, Yeah, it could be a poostorm.
Speaker 2: The one thing that I do want them I'll shut
Speaker 2: up about it.
Speaker 1: I hope whoever wins it's it's it's clearly they won.
Speaker 2: They won by enough states.
Speaker 1: There's not one state hanging out there mostly male in ballots.
Speaker 2: You know. Just whoever wins.
Speaker 3: It's gonna be twenty seven votes spread over four states.
Speaker 2: How does that taste? The twenty seven votes? Now, shut
Speaker 2: up about it. Like you said, here's.
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Speaker 1: Milton, the fourth strongest hurricane ever recorded since they've been
Speaker 1: able to measure these sorts of things. And uh, we're
Speaker 1: going to try to help out the victims of the
Speaker 1: last hurricane, and uh, maybe get prepared for this next one.
Speaker 1: A bunch of other stuff on the way, stay with us.
Speaker 6: Hey, what does.
Speaker 1: The states the storm zone need, mister President? So what
Speaker 1: are the states of the storm zone?
Speaker 7: What do they need?
Speaker 2: What you call today calling the storm zone? Yes, sir,
Speaker 2: I'm learning what.
Speaker 6: Storm resulting about.
Speaker 3: They get everything they did. They're very happy off the board.
Speaker 2: I've heard that twenty times. Is still amazing.
Speaker 1: That is a guy who's no longer in UH has
Speaker 1: a control of his brain.
Speaker 3: That is non compassmentus, and he's the leader of the
Speaker 3: free world.
Speaker 1: Great Scott, I just saw the headline that Joe Biden
Speaker 1: has had an overseas trip planned. I think that's to
Speaker 1: get him out of the country so that he's less
Speaker 1: involved in the campaign. That's actually a strategy from what
Speaker 1: I read. Anyway, He's going to stay in DC to
Speaker 1: monitor the hurricanes. Okay, well as you just heard there,
Speaker 1: what storm? Oh, I didn't know what storm you were
Speaker 1: talking about? Not big one, the biggest one in the country.
Speaker 1: Then everybody's talking about that one.
Speaker 2: Milton, Milton Bradley, Milton Friedman.
Speaker 3: A lot of folks, including ourselves, have looked upon the
Speaker 3: devastation of the North Carolina Hills, especially with astonishment and
Speaker 3: sadness and worry, as a lot of these people did
Speaker 3: not have flood insurance because it never floods there, and
Speaker 3: their homes and businesses were swept away, and a lot
Speaker 3: of folks would love to help if they can. We
Speaker 3: have done some vetting and digging and looked into who's
Speaker 3: actually on the ground doing great work there and helping
Speaker 3: people at the point of the disaster, and it's tough
Speaker 3: to beat the United Way of the counties involved. If
Speaker 3: you would like to kick in a few dollars, we
Speaker 3: certainly encourage you to do that. Just go to Armstrong
Speaker 3: and Getty dot com, scroll down a tiny bit and
Speaker 3: it's donate here.
Speaker 2: It's super easy.
Speaker 3: Again, we've talked to these folks man that everybody needs food, clothing, water, everything, everything.
Speaker 3: Everything's gone medicine and they're uninsured. It's just it's a nightmare.
Speaker 3: So anyway, if you'd like to help, good Armstrong and
Speaker 3: Getty dot com.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so this is the United Way for that from
Speaker 1: that very county that's getting the most attention. And you
Speaker 1: know these are people that live there, not coming in
Speaker 1: from somewhere else and trying to figure out how to
Speaker 1: handle it. They they this is their community. So yeah,
Speaker 1: go to Armstrong Getty dot com. That's what you do.
Speaker 2: Yes, that's what I said. Repeat Italy.
Speaker 1: So you got another hurricane barren down and who knows
Speaker 1: what this is going to do to FEMA. I came
Speaker 1: across this from some national meteorologist last night. Uh, this
Speaker 1: is nothing short of astronomical. I'm at a loss for
Speaker 1: words to meteorology, meteorologically describe you the storm's small eye
Speaker 1: and intensity eight hundred and ninety seven millibars. Is that
Speaker 1: what they use of pressure? With one hundred and eighty
Speaker 1: mile an hour max sustained winds gusts of two hundred
Speaker 1: this is now the fourth strongest hurricane ever recorded by
Speaker 1: pressure on this side of the world, and the eye
Speaker 1: is tiny in all caps, which I guess matters. At
Speaker 1: nearly three point eight miles wide, this hurricane is nearing
Speaker 1: the mathematical limit of what Earth's atmosphere can produce. Yikes,
Speaker 1: it's almost at the peak of what could even happen
Speaker 1: on the planet.
Speaker 3: Last night, wivey, and so Tampa Bay is particularly vulnerable.
Speaker 3: That's where the hurricane appears to be headed. It's densely populated,
Speaker 3: fast growing area, and I was astounded to learn it
Speaker 3: hasn't been hit by a major hurricane in over a century.
Speaker 3: It has dodged numerous storms over the year until two
Speaker 3: weeks ago when Helene made landfall to the north. But
Speaker 3: it really hammered Tampa Bay with a powerful storm surge,
Speaker 3: which is essentially the force of the storm pushes ocean
Speaker 3: water up onto shore, and the speed of the winds
Speaker 3: is a horrendous problem obviously, and the rainfall is a
Speaker 3: big deal. But the size of this storm and its
Speaker 3: ability to create storm surge, I guess is also you know,
Speaker 3: at the tip top of the scale. They're predicting a
Speaker 3: storm surge at ten to fifteen feet for the Tampa
Speaker 3: Bay area and up to fifteen inches of rainfall across
Speaker 3: parts of Florida and Tampa and Saint Pete most vulnerable
Speaker 3: to flooding damage, according the most vulnerable metro area in
Speaker 3: America to flooding damage more than New Orleans because of
Speaker 3: a shallow continental shelf off the coast and a funnel
Speaker 3: effect in Tampa Bay that creates the potential for a
Speaker 3: huge buildup of water that can just wash away neighborhoods.
Speaker 1: And Mike's Katrina was a three when it hit shore.
Speaker 1: So the category it is when it hits shore is
Speaker 1: not the key to the whole thing.
Speaker 3: Right right, Well, it's it's twin menaces, different menaces. And
Speaker 3: I had not realized the Tampa Bay metro area is
Speaker 3: now three point two million.
Speaker 1: People, So the mayor, so I was down in Florida
Speaker 1: one time before or after Hurricane I don't remember. I
Speaker 1: was down in Key West and talking to some of
Speaker 1: the Key West locals in the bar or whatever, and like,
Speaker 1: did you stay?
Speaker 2: We always stay.
Speaker 1: They always tell you got to leave every hurricane three
Speaker 1: times a year. They tell us this is going to
Speaker 1: be the worst one ever and whatever. And they were
Speaker 1: very blase about it. You know that's true until it's not.
Speaker 1: And the mayor of Tampa is saying if you do
Speaker 1: not leave, you will die. That was her declarative statement.
Speaker 1: If you do not leave, you will die. Wow, that's something.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, well Tampa's I mean, have you ever been
Speaker 3: to Florida? Tampa is as flat as a frying pan,
Speaker 3: and the drainage systems aren't the best, and so yeah,
Speaker 3: they think there's a tremendous potential for unthinkable loss of
Speaker 3: life and property.
Speaker 2: Anyway, we've just got a minute. That's too bad.
Speaker 3: We've got a couple of great emails from folks who've
Speaker 3: dealt with FEMA.
Speaker 5: HM.
Speaker 1: We wish you could come next hour with that because
Speaker 1: that's the hot topic man. And again, this could be
Speaker 1: a huge political issue because the current administration is going
Speaker 1: to get tagged with any failures and FEMA's already stretched thin,
Speaker 1: claiming they're out of money, and this Milton's about to
Speaker 1: hit Florida, and it ain't like the people in North
Speaker 1: Carolina are all of a sudden not gonna need help
Speaker 1: once Tampa Bay's getting all the attention.
Speaker 3: Well, given the fact that the Department of Homeland Security
Speaker 3: oversees all of this, I will not hear a suggestion
Speaker 3: that Alejandro Mayorkis is anything less than a stellar beer.
Speaker 1: I've got a busy day Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and so on.
Speaker 3: So the world's stupidest waste of skin is.
Speaker 2: In charge of all of this. God save us Armstrong
Speaker 2: and Getty