1 00:00:01,920 --> 00:00:06,200 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live from the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio, the George 2 00:00:06,280 --> 00:00:10,320 Speaker 1: Washington Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty. 3 00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:12,560 Speaker 2: Arm Strong and he. 4 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:22,480 Speaker 3: Armstrong and Getty. 5 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:28,280 Speaker 4: But pardon me that, Advice President. The question was, how 6 00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:29,840 Speaker 4: are you going to pay for it? 7 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:32,480 Speaker 5: Well, one of the things I'm going to make sure 8 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:36,520 Speaker 5: that the richest among us who can afford it, pay 9 00:00:36,600 --> 00:00:40,640 Speaker 5: their fair share in taxes. It is not right that 10 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:45,160 Speaker 5: teachers and nurses and firefighters are paying a higher tax 11 00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:48,200 Speaker 5: rate than billionaires and the biggest corporations. 12 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 2: And I plan on making that fair. 13 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:53,159 Speaker 6: But we're dealing with the real world here. 14 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 5: But the real world includes how are you going to 15 00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:59,000 Speaker 5: get this to Congress? You know, when you talk quietly 16 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 5: with a lot of folks in cong they know exactly 17 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 5: what I'm talking about because their constituents though exactly what 18 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:09,479 Speaker 5: I'm talking about. Their constituents are those firefighters and teachers 19 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:13,840 Speaker 5: and nurses. Their constituents are middle class, hardworking folks. 20 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 1: That was one of the few times last night that 21 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:18,480 Speaker 1: I was bothered by because I thought the sixty minutes 22 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:20,920 Speaker 1: was more aggressive than I was expecting to them be 23 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:24,399 Speaker 1: more follow ups. But I wish instead of accepting her 24 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:28,600 Speaker 1: BS line and acting like, well, the reason that's BS 25 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:30,160 Speaker 1: is because you couldn't get it through Congress. 26 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:32,400 Speaker 2: No, the reason it's BS is because it's BS. 27 00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 1: It's BS that the rich pay more than their fair share, 28 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:41,160 Speaker 1: and it's ridiculous to keep leaning on that as the 29 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:42,960 Speaker 1: answer to our fiscal problems. 30 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:47,200 Speaker 3: Also from the Department of Populist clap traps, she said 31 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 3: billionaires in America's great corporations. Everybody into corporations pays taxes, 32 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:57,600 Speaker 3: and raising corporate taxes makes goods more expensive, it cuts 33 00:01:57,640 --> 00:02:01,160 Speaker 3: down on investment, it hurts your furrow. One it comes 34 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:03,600 Speaker 3: out of the paychecks of the people who work there. 35 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 3: A corporation is just a collection of humans. Well, so 36 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:08,400 Speaker 3: that's such a dog. 37 00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:10,800 Speaker 1: And what she said about when you talk to people 38 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:13,800 Speaker 1: in Congress, you know, in private, it's the opposite of 39 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:15,959 Speaker 1: what she said. You talk to people in Congress in private, 40 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:18,520 Speaker 1: and they would say, well, yeah, we can't, We're not 41 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 1: gonna raise taxes on corporations or you know, try to 42 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 1: figure out how to tax unrealized gains because it would 43 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:28,400 Speaker 1: doom the economy. But this plays well in public. So 44 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:30,680 Speaker 1: I'm willing to go on stage and say originally to 45 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:33,080 Speaker 1: pay the fair share, because it polls well. 46 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:37,959 Speaker 7: Those who have been blessed the most, who have disproportionately 47 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 7: attracted by whatever skill, more and more from the national wealth, 48 00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:45,680 Speaker 7: they're gonna have to share more of that. 49 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:49,680 Speaker 3: That is one of the worst utterances in the history 50 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:53,919 Speaker 3: of American politics. The former governor of California Jerry Brown, 51 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:58,760 Speaker 3: suggesting that if you are, for instance, a successful entrepreneur, 52 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:01,400 Speaker 3: you build a small business, you employee dozens of people, 53 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 3: you feed your clothes, you medicate them, You put out 54 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 3: products that people. 55 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 2: Want to buy, and they buy them from you. 56 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:10,840 Speaker 3: You've extracted from the public wealth. 57 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 1: Right, you took something from someone else, it would be 58 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:17,880 Speaker 1: their money if you hadn't taken it, Which is as 59 00:03:18,040 --> 00:03:21,079 Speaker 1: illiterate economically as you could possibly get. 60 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:25,359 Speaker 2: Carl Marx wandered away from that, muttering. 61 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:28,840 Speaker 3: That's not how it works, dude, that's unbelievable anyway. So 62 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 3: we could certainly torture your ears with more kamm la 63 00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:34,480 Speaker 3: on sixty minutes and mean, we may on and off 64 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 3: throughout the show, But that actually leads rather beautifully to 65 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 3: a new study that came across about income inequality. And 66 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 3: I found it really interesting. I hope you do too. 67 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:47,880 Speaker 3: It's you know, the concept of income inequality just drives 68 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 3: so much of our politics these days, and it's so 69 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:53,680 Speaker 3: frustrating if you understand how economies actually work to listen 70 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 3: to it. 71 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 2: But I really ought to be used to it at 72 00:03:55,480 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 2: this point in my life. So there's a. 73 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 3: Big study from the National Bureau of Economic Research from 74 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:05,520 Speaker 3: the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis, Vanderbilt University, Princeton. 75 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:08,320 Speaker 3: I mean, this is a big, big, you know, the 76 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 3: high Class study. It used a rich vein of survey 77 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:15,600 Speaker 3: data tracking individuals far back as nineteen seventy nine. They 78 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:18,920 Speaker 3: found that a major determinant hello again that word is 79 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 3: determinant of total lifetime hours worked is individual choice. Oh, 80 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:28,520 Speaker 3: I'm sorry, I kind of started in the middle. I 81 00:04:28,560 --> 00:04:32,360 Speaker 3: skipped a part i apology. The more you work over 82 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 3: your lifetime, the more you earn. Now, so far, so 83 00:04:36,520 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 3: obvious as they write, but the surprises lurk, and an 84 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:42,159 Speaker 3: explanation that's more complex than you'd think. They found that 85 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:45,600 Speaker 3: a major determinant of total lifetime hours worked is individual choice. 86 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:46,400 Speaker 2: Some people just. 87 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:51,279 Speaker 3: Prefer to work more, while others might prioritize other activities. 88 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:54,599 Speaker 3: But it's not just that they worked more. The paper 89 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 3: finds that those who work more earn more because they 90 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 3: accumulate more skills during the extra time they work. The 91 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:05,719 Speaker 3: overlapping effects of different preferences for work and different levels 92 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 3: of skill acquisition account for a hefty share of overall 93 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:12,960 Speaker 3: differences in lifetime earnings, and it seems to operate independently 94 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 3: of other factors like level of education or skills, or 95 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:20,840 Speaker 3: how much money you had before you entered the labor force. 96 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 3: In other words, income inequality is in part a matter 97 00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 3: of choice rather than an intractable economic or social force. 98 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 1: Sorry, socialists, well, trying to make that fly in a 99 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 1: populous era, even if it's true. But it's always these 100 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:36,279 Speaker 1: sort of things are just tough for me because of 101 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:37,960 Speaker 1: our career or what do we do for a living. 102 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:40,599 Speaker 1: I just it's such a not regular job. I always 103 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:42,719 Speaker 1: have to try to picture a regular job because I 104 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:44,679 Speaker 1: can work more hours. I'm not picking up any skills. 105 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:47,119 Speaker 1: I mean, I got no skills. I started with no skills. 106 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:49,840 Speaker 1: I've gained no skills. I could do two radio shows 107 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 1: a day. I still have no skills. But so for 108 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:55,159 Speaker 1: regular jobs, though you put in more hours and you 109 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 1: pick up more skills. 110 00:05:56,560 --> 00:05:59,880 Speaker 3: And that's where become more useful, of course, of right 111 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:04,000 Speaker 3: different ways well, and honestly, if you were to put 112 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:07,360 Speaker 3: in another ten hours per week and devote it to 113 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:10,359 Speaker 3: learning video editing, we might be able to have a 114 00:06:10,360 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 3: more robust video presence on YouTube or something like that. 115 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 3: But anyway, the other thing that bothers me about some 116 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 3: of the income inequality analysis is that it frequently casts 117 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:26,480 Speaker 3: people who've made deliberate and to me completely defensible decisions 118 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 3: as somehow victims. Right, I mean, the obvious thing would 119 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:34,599 Speaker 3: be a woman who decides I'm not going to bust 120 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:38,040 Speaker 3: my ass to be a big law lawyer and work 121 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 3: seventy hours a week. I want to be a mom 122 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:43,920 Speaker 3: and I'm going to practice law, but on my terms 123 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 3: because I think my life will be a better life, 124 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:48,400 Speaker 3: more satisfying service to God. 125 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:50,240 Speaker 2: However, you define a good. 126 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:54,800 Speaker 3: Life if I don't entirely devote my energies to making 127 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:59,520 Speaker 3: more money, And that woman is frequently portrayed as a 128 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:03,279 Speaker 3: victim of something when I, personally, for what it's worth, 129 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:05,760 Speaker 3: thinks she's made a brilliant decision. 130 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 1: Right, or even maybe slightly more subtle as somebody who's 131 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 1: moved around the country and I often think about the decisions, 132 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 1: those decisions and how they affected my life and my kids' 133 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 1: lives and that sort of stuff. 134 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 2: It's been good for me career wise. 135 00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:24,360 Speaker 1: But so if I had made the decision, you know, 136 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 1: I'm going to stay in the area where all my 137 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:28,520 Speaker 1: family is, so I have the close family ties and 138 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 1: all the fun stuff that comes with that, I'd be 139 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 1: making a lot less money. That's not I wouldn't be 140 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 1: a victim of something. I chose a different lifestyle that 141 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:37,679 Speaker 1: maybe would have been better. 142 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:40,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I agree completely. 143 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 3: I have a close relative whose point of view is 144 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 3: I will make enough to get by, and I will 145 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:49,400 Speaker 3: spend the rest of my time exploring art and nature. 146 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:51,640 Speaker 2: And friends and whatever else. 147 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 3: That was not my priority really as a young man, 148 00:07:57,360 --> 00:08:00,520 Speaker 3: partly because I was raising kids and everything, like I'd 149 00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 3: better build an s egg because I was terrified all 150 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 3: the time of letting my family down. But again, it's 151 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:08,040 Speaker 3: not a question of victimhood. It is a question, over 152 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 3: and over and over again, of choices. But you know, 153 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 3: it's so easy to throw back self righteously. Oh so 154 00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:16,920 Speaker 3: people are choosing to be poor, The white man says, 155 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 3: they're choosing to be Okay, right, and you lose, you're 156 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 3: done at that. So I'm not bragging on this, I 157 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:27,280 Speaker 3: swear I'm not. It's just the way I made when 158 00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:30,160 Speaker 3: I was taking econ classes back in college, which was 159 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:34,720 Speaker 3: roughly the horse was just giving way to the motor car. 160 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 2: You did all your problems on an abacus. 161 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:42,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, there were lessons in principles that the professors would 162 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 3: teach us that I was sitting. 163 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:46,080 Speaker 2: I would more than once. 164 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:50,199 Speaker 3: I sat there thinking real people don't act like that. 165 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 3: It's not like I knew more than them, and I 166 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:55,440 Speaker 3: didn't form up some revolutionary theory of economics or I 167 00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 3: just went off chasing girls and drinking beer. But anyway, 168 00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:02,680 Speaker 3: I I thought this was so interesting. The economics of 169 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:08,080 Speaker 3: identity is a growing field. A Nobel Prize winning economist, 170 00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:13,880 Speaker 3: a couple of guys you've never heard of, were I 171 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:16,280 Speaker 3: came up with this principle that identity may be the 172 00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:20,640 Speaker 3: most important economic decision people make. How you view your 173 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:24,520 Speaker 3: role in the world will affect your choices. Yet even 174 00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 3: the great economic thinkers of academic history, you know, economics 175 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:35,640 Speaker 3: in general, had not incorporated identity into a formal economic model. 176 00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 3: Sociologists and psychologists, they spent half their time about you 177 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:44,160 Speaker 3: know your self image, what image you want to project 178 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:46,959 Speaker 3: to others, you know what groups you're part of, as 179 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 3: being like incredibly important. But economics had ignored it, and 180 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:56,199 Speaker 3: they talk about being a Trump voter, Harris voter. It's 181 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:58,640 Speaker 3: an expression of identity that goes along with many other 182 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:01,439 Speaker 3: expressions from the car you drive to the clothes you wear, 183 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 3: and it's it's there's a lot of social pressure in it. 184 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 3: And he mentions the two economists who came up with 185 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:12,560 Speaker 3: this idea, your identity can be buttressed, threatened, changed, or 186 00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 3: influenced by others, not merely by your own preferences and 187 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:20,000 Speaker 3: decisions that who am I, how do I want others 188 00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:20,400 Speaker 3: to see me? 189 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:21,559 Speaker 2: And who are we? 190 00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:27,120 Speaker 3: So these two economists, for instance, talked about how being 191 00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:31,720 Speaker 3: an academic economist is a social category and among the 192 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:36,079 Speaker 3: prescriptions for academic economists might include owning a practical car, 193 00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 3: wearing comfortable shoes, and living a certain I'm an academic 194 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:45,120 Speaker 3: economist lifestyle. And if you were to run out and 195 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:47,720 Speaker 3: buy a Porsche or a pair of five hundred dollars 196 00:10:47,760 --> 00:10:51,320 Speaker 3: loafers or something like that, not only would it cause 197 00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 3: a real economist to feel bad, but you'd immediately be 198 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:55,720 Speaker 3: scorned and mocked by your colleagues. 199 00:10:56,760 --> 00:10:59,560 Speaker 1: Wow, so you're supposed to be in a Honda accord 200 00:10:59,640 --> 00:11:02,040 Speaker 1: and where where you know something you got at the mall, 201 00:11:02,120 --> 00:11:05,320 Speaker 1: at the walking store that that that fits in with 202 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:06,600 Speaker 1: the whole identity thing. 203 00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:08,839 Speaker 2: Yeah, a couple other examples. 204 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 3: Uh So, this model posits that individuals gain from both 205 00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:15,880 Speaker 3: material outcomes and actions that conform to their identities. In 206 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 3: the labor market, workers are motivated by wages as well 207 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:21,640 Speaker 3: as by how well their jobs aligned with their identity. 208 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:24,960 Speaker 3: A corporate job might offer financial stability, but if it 209 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 3: conflicts with an individual's identity as an environmentalist, for instance, 210 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:32,959 Speaker 3: or an iconoclastic artist or whatever, that's mismatch can lead 211 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:38,520 Speaker 3: to dissatisfication, dissatisfaction, and underperformance. In this vein, trying to 212 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 3: train coal miners to be nurses may be futile. And 213 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:46,120 Speaker 3: there's there's a great deal more to this. I love 214 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:47,720 Speaker 3: to draw on and on about this stuff. 215 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:48,120 Speaker 7: Yeah. 216 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:51,480 Speaker 1: That that's that's damned interesting. That is not thought about enough. 217 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 1: Whenever I hear, you know, teaching coal miners to code 218 00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:58,720 Speaker 1: or whatever that politicians throw around, that sort of stuff. 219 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:03,199 Speaker 1: I know enough working class people in in my life. 220 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:06,319 Speaker 1: That what an identity that is? This is this is 221 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 1: who I am. I'm a farmer, I'm a you know. 222 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:11,120 Speaker 1: I I work with my hands. I work outside to 223 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:14,599 Speaker 1: do whatever I would. I would hang myself before I 224 00:12:14,640 --> 00:12:16,960 Speaker 1: would sit in an office in code all day long. 225 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:20,280 Speaker 1: So the idea that I mean, because of the identity 226 00:12:20,320 --> 00:12:22,520 Speaker 1: stuff you're talking about, this is not just just to 227 00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:24,480 Speaker 1: make a living. This is who I am, this is 228 00:12:24,520 --> 00:12:27,280 Speaker 1: what This is what I projected the world. This is 229 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:29,199 Speaker 1: what I want to project to my family and friends. 230 00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:32,360 Speaker 3: Thanks Matt, Jack, you hit me with one of the 231 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:36,000 Speaker 3: best examples of this I've ever heard. Michael's getting nervous 232 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:37,880 Speaker 3: because we need to take a break. I'll keep it short. 233 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:40,480 Speaker 3: But at one point we were talking about the concept 234 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:44,040 Speaker 3: of keeping it real, how athletes and rappers and all 235 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 3: they they got to act like they're still of the 236 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 3: hood or what have you. And and it's an interesting 237 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:52,480 Speaker 3: topic because sometimes it hurts you in your life or 238 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:56,920 Speaker 3: your earning capabilities or whatever. But at one point I'd 239 00:12:56,960 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 3: mentioned to Jack that I had always done my own 240 00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:06,480 Speaker 3: yard work, gardening, mowing, trimming, blowing, all of it because 241 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:09,679 Speaker 3: I couldn't stand the idea of me being the guy 242 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:12,840 Speaker 3: who hires a gardener, and you said, you're keeping it 243 00:13:12,880 --> 00:13:16,600 Speaker 3: real right for your people, that's exactly Yeah, yeah, we 244 00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 3: don't have servants. And finally, the yard was just too 245 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 3: peg and I would have spend all my time doing 246 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:22,719 Speaker 3: it and I would have neglected my children. So I 247 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:24,880 Speaker 3: hired a guy for you know, much less than it 248 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:27,320 Speaker 3: would have cost me in my life. But yeah, that 249 00:13:27,480 --> 00:13:30,280 Speaker 3: concept of keeping it real, your self image, your identitybody, 250 00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 3: it would affect your economic decisions. 251 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:35,560 Speaker 2: It's enormous. It was completely missing from economics. Yeah, it's 252 00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:37,600 Speaker 2: the way we're built. Interesting. 253 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:40,560 Speaker 1: I want to talk about the Nobel Prize in uh 254 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 1: that came out today, and also an overview of the polling, 255 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:46,040 Speaker 1: not in individual polls or anything like that that I 256 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:47,600 Speaker 1: guarantee you will find interesting. 257 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:51,400 Speaker 2: All on the way. 258 00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:55,000 Speaker 3: Well, listen to this McDonald's issuing major beef producers for 259 00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:57,360 Speaker 3: allegedly conspiring to limit their supplies. 260 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:03,040 Speaker 2: Meanwhile, Arby's is like this does affect us? Wow? Wow? 261 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:06,560 Speaker 2: What is it? It just doesn't affect us? What is it? 262 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:09,199 Speaker 3: What the late night guys war on Arby's on a 263 00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:12,000 Speaker 3: fine meat he sandwich purveyor. 264 00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:16,320 Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't know, I don't get it. 265 00:14:16,360 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 2: I've enjoyed many delicious sandwich at Arby's. I agree. 266 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:25,480 Speaker 1: So the Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to a 267 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:30,240 Speaker 1: couple of scientists working on AI, John Hopfield and Jeffrey Hinton, 268 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:33,240 Speaker 1: who we've talked about before, who's often considered the godfather 269 00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:36,360 Speaker 1: of AI or something like that, have showed a completely 270 00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:38,880 Speaker 1: new way for us to use computers to aid and 271 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:42,560 Speaker 1: guide us in solving problems. The committee said, I felt 272 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:44,040 Speaker 1: like this is the sort of thing that's going to 273 00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:47,520 Speaker 1: be looked back on years from now, kind of like Oppenheimer, 274 00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:49,880 Speaker 1: you know, cracking the code for making a bomb. Oh, 275 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 1: what a breakthrough for mankind nuclear energy. Look everybody, and yeah, 276 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 1: they have showed a completely new way for us to 277 00:14:57,800 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 1: use computers to guide and tackle me any of the 278 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 1: challenges society faces. Machine learning based on the human brain 279 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:09,760 Speaker 1: is currently revolutionary, revolutionizing science, engineering, and daily life. Yeah, 280 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:12,280 Speaker 1: it's the daily life part of it. I think that 281 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 1: most of us are worried about and like it might 282 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:19,360 Speaker 1: render the need to work completely. You know, they will 283 00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:21,760 Speaker 1: go away, and it will restructure society in a way 284 00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:24,440 Speaker 1: that has never even been considered in the history of mankind, 285 00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:28,200 Speaker 1: but yeah, good for you. In the Nobel Price, I 286 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 1: just saw it really downplayed the significance of what this 287 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:35,040 Speaker 1: could be. So I don't know, And it was all 288 00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:37,040 Speaker 1: cheery talk. That's what seemed to her to me. It 289 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:40,400 Speaker 1: was just all happy cheery. Isn't this great? 290 00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 3: If only we could find a wise and beneficent, magnificent 291 00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:51,680 Speaker 3: philosopher king who could judge will this overall would be 292 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:54,880 Speaker 3: a good thing or a bad thing? Because I'm not 293 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 3: sure Cherry's still out. 294 00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:59,760 Speaker 2: How much time I got, Michael? Maybe four months with 295 00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 2: the Yeah, no, you got about a minute. 296 00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:04,240 Speaker 1: It's not really long enough. We do this all the time, 297 00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 1: starting to really drive me crazy. The stuff I most 298 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:09,400 Speaker 1: want to talk about we leave no time for. How 299 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 1: do we fix that problem? 300 00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:11,800 Speaker 2: Is it fix them alone? 301 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:12,640 Speaker 7: Yeah? 302 00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 2: Sure, I don't think it is. We've been doing this 303 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:18,320 Speaker 2: for the next years. We get there years. There's no 304 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:21,280 Speaker 2: way we can current correct our mistake. You need to 305 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:25,320 Speaker 2: leave behind your preconceptions, man, old dog new tricks doesn't work. 306 00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:29,920 Speaker 2: Just do what you want to do. Had no time, yes, 307 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:30,600 Speaker 2: time for this. 308 00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:35,400 Speaker 3: You brought up nuclear power. We are It's like most 309 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:37,920 Speaker 3: people don't want to think about death. Iran is working 310 00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:40,040 Speaker 3: as hard as it can to get the atomic bomb 311 00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:42,560 Speaker 3: as quickly as it can, and it's run by Islamic 312 00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 3: lunatics l l L. 313 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 2: Nobody wants to talk about it or do anything about it. 314 00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 1: The Secretary of State set himself that there are a 315 00:16:51,040 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 1: couple of weeks from breakout. 316 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 2: If they decide they want to do it, a couple 317 00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:54,680 Speaker 2: of weeks. 318 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 1: If we're and decide, go let's get a nuclear weapon, 319 00:16:57,760 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 1: it would take them a couple of weeks to have 320 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 1: a nuclear weapon. 321 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:01,000 Speaker 2: Not amazing. 322 00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:04,119 Speaker 3: And if old weird Beard decides to end the Jews, 323 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:05,479 Speaker 3: he's got the power to do it. 324 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:07,680 Speaker 2: Good Lord, hold weird. 325 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:11,920 Speaker 6: Beard Armstrong and getdy. 326 00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:19,880 Speaker 4: A quarter of registered voters still say they don't know you. 327 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:23,199 Speaker 4: They don't know what makes you tick, and why do 328 00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:25,719 Speaker 4: you think that is what's the disconnect. 329 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:32,480 Speaker 5: It's an election bill, and I take it seriously that 330 00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:35,240 Speaker 5: I have to earn everyone's vote. This is an election 331 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:38,760 Speaker 5: for president of the United States. No one should be 332 00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:41,000 Speaker 5: able to take for granted that they can just declare 333 00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 5: themselves a candidate and automatically receive support. 334 00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:45,600 Speaker 2: You have to earn it. 335 00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:47,280 Speaker 5: And that's what I intend to do. 336 00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:50,480 Speaker 1: That I don't I wish I could put my finger 337 00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:55,120 Speaker 1: on why her answers bother me so much, but they do. 338 00:17:55,880 --> 00:18:00,960 Speaker 1: Her tone of voice is this is obvious, it's simple 339 00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:02,359 Speaker 1: and very impressive. 340 00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 3: When it's never any of those, No, it is not, 341 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:13,360 Speaker 3: it's it's usually trite. It's no selection bill. What nobody 342 00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:16,240 Speaker 3: knows what you believe? Like you don't have any You've. 343 00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:18,879 Speaker 2: Got to earn the votes. What what? 344 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:22,320 Speaker 1: But the question was, why do there's a court or 345 00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:23,760 Speaker 1: why do a court of the people say they don't 346 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:24,399 Speaker 1: know who you are. 347 00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:27,800 Speaker 2: So you haven't earned them yet? Is that what you're saying? 348 00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:30,359 Speaker 1: Is I wish she was trying to say anyway, I 349 00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:32,919 Speaker 1: want to get to this overarching polling stuff, which I 350 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:34,440 Speaker 1: think you will find interesting. 351 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:37,159 Speaker 2: I really do. But here's a little more. He followed 352 00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:37,600 Speaker 2: up on that. 353 00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:41,000 Speaker 6: Tell you what your critics and the column this say. 354 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:44,679 Speaker 4: Okay, they say, the reason so many voters don't know 355 00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 4: you is that you have changed your position on so 356 00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:49,520 Speaker 4: many things. 357 00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:52,119 Speaker 6: You are against fracking, now you're for it. 358 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:57,200 Speaker 4: You supported looser immigration policies, now you're tightening them up. 359 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:01,640 Speaker 4: You're for medicare for all now you're not so many 360 00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:06,480 Speaker 4: that people don't truly know what you believe or what 361 00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:08,439 Speaker 4: you stand for, and I know you've heard that. 362 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:11,680 Speaker 5: In the last four years, I have been Vice president 363 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:14,520 Speaker 5: of the United States, and I have been traveling our country 364 00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:18,840 Speaker 5: and I have been listening to folks and seeking what 365 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:21,240 Speaker 5: is possible in terms of common ground. 366 00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:23,400 Speaker 6: I believe in building consensus. 367 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:27,719 Speaker 2: We are diverse people geographically regionally. 368 00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:30,640 Speaker 5: In terms of where we are in our backgrounds, and 369 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:33,879 Speaker 5: what the American people do want is that we have 370 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:37,800 Speaker 5: leaders who can build consensus where we can figure out 371 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:41,120 Speaker 5: compromise and understand it's not a bad thing as long 372 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:46,000 Speaker 5: as you don't compromise your values to fine common sense solutions. 373 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:48,560 Speaker 2: And that has been my approach. 374 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 3: She's completely full of crap. And I think you're supposed 375 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 3: to call her a mid brain these days. 376 00:19:57,520 --> 00:19:58,160 Speaker 2: Oh, I don't know that. 377 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:02,240 Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, yeah, they're just there's so many ways 378 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:06,119 Speaker 3: she could answered that question more skillfully and. 379 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:08,440 Speaker 2: She knows words. Yeah, I don't know. 380 00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:11,040 Speaker 1: That's a tough one to answer because you flip flopped 381 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:15,440 Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty degrees on like six major topics. 382 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,280 Speaker 3: Well, then think she's a midbrain. Is she was onto 383 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:23,280 Speaker 3: something there? The idea that hey, we've got to reach 384 00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:27,000 Speaker 3: consensus and compromise and she could have said, Look, as 385 00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:29,199 Speaker 3: a senator, I'm one of a hundred, and I was 386 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:31,960 Speaker 3: advocating for a particular point of view. But I'm running 387 00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:35,800 Speaker 3: to be the president of all Americans, so yeah, I'm not. 388 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:39,240 Speaker 3: I'm going to try to find ways to bring the 389 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:42,320 Speaker 3: sides together. So yeah, if I sound more moderate now, 390 00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 3: it's because I want to be a moderate present it's 391 00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:49,760 Speaker 3: an election. Bill, you know what, given how stupid politics 392 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 3: is r am you know, her rambling nonsense answer, maybe 393 00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:55,160 Speaker 3: that's a better one. 394 00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:57,680 Speaker 2: I don't know. Selection of our lifetime. 395 00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:00,720 Speaker 1: I was pretty happy with sixty minutes Bill Whitaker. There 396 00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:03,439 Speaker 1: are a couple of times that I really like he 397 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:05,560 Speaker 1: accepted her answer in a way that I really hated. 398 00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:07,679 Speaker 1: But he did the what Tim Russer used to do 399 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 1: on Meet the Press. You follow up and then like 400 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:14,119 Speaker 1: basically the second time they do their non answer, you 401 00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:17,280 Speaker 1: let it lay there with like, Okay, you told people 402 00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:19,600 Speaker 1: you don't want to answer this question, so we will 403 00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:22,000 Speaker 1: move on. And I think that's fine. I mean, he 404 00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:24,440 Speaker 1: gave her, you know, two chances there. People don't know 405 00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:26,520 Speaker 1: who you are. Here's all the things you flip flopped on. 406 00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:30,480 Speaker 1: She did her weird Kamala Harris Circular something or other, 407 00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 1: and okay, I think that did her more harm than good. 408 00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:34,240 Speaker 2: That segment. 409 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:37,760 Speaker 1: It led a whole bunch of people that might not 410 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:40,040 Speaker 1: have known that that she flipped off, flip flopped on 411 00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:41,720 Speaker 1: all those issues, and she didn't really have a reason 412 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:43,720 Speaker 1: why she did well. 413 00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:48,719 Speaker 3: I'm reminded of the post debate analysis or polling, in 414 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:52,920 Speaker 3: which I was quite gratified even though Trump was awful 415 00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:58,120 Speaker 3: to hear the number of folks undecided voters who said, 416 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:00,960 Speaker 3: you know, yeah, Trump was awful, but she didn't say anything. 417 00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:03,560 Speaker 3: She didn't say anything specific. She didn't give me any 418 00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:06,200 Speaker 3: clue as to how she would govern. And I think, 419 00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,119 Speaker 3: you know, last night was another go round to that 420 00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:08,680 Speaker 3: sort of thing. 421 00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:13,040 Speaker 2: It's an election. Though. What'd you think of Taylor's outfit 422 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 2: last night? Didn't see it? 423 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:16,240 Speaker 1: Pretty demuror. 424 00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:22,080 Speaker 2: Oh you didn't see it. I didn't see it. Take 425 00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,119 Speaker 2: any of the follow up coverage from the New York Post. 426 00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:26,320 Speaker 2: She's back in the stadium. 427 00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 1: It looks like she and Travis have worked things out 428 00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:30,960 Speaker 1: if they were on the rocks, because she wasn't the 429 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:31,760 Speaker 1: last two games. 430 00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:35,679 Speaker 3: Ah No, okay, I watched the Manning cast mostly for 431 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:38,760 Speaker 3: some of the first half. They did have a shout 432 00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:40,600 Speaker 3: of Travis sitting on the bench, and I did say, 433 00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:43,879 Speaker 3: by Gully, he's a handsome man. No wonder Taylor's happy 434 00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:45,640 Speaker 3: to be with him. But that was my only thought 435 00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,119 Speaker 3: of her for like the last three weeks. 436 00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:51,320 Speaker 1: So, yes, Michael, I was just thinking, the Chiefs are 437 00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:52,960 Speaker 1: five and o though, and she hasn't been at the 438 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:56,040 Speaker 1: games if she if they start losing, they're gonna blame her. 439 00:22:56,119 --> 00:23:00,080 Speaker 2: Absolutely, she's a bad loss. They should. Yeah, that's just science. 440 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 1: To the presidential election. I thought this was interesting. So 441 00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,200 Speaker 1: the New York Times had one of their biggest polls 442 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:05,800 Speaker 1: in the field. As we get closer to the election 443 00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:08,600 Speaker 1: four weeks from today, it's actually starting to get pretty close. 444 00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:12,639 Speaker 1: And it was mostly good news for Kamala Harris. She 445 00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:15,720 Speaker 1: increased her lead nationally a little bit, and she continues 446 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:19,399 Speaker 1: to have higher approval ratings. She'd closed the gap on 447 00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:22,360 Speaker 1: the economy and the border. How why, I have no idea, 448 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:25,960 Speaker 1: but it is and that's that. But here's so if 449 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:27,960 Speaker 1: you're a Harris fan, you'd be pretty happy with that. 450 00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:31,560 Speaker 1: Here's from Mark Alprin's newsletter today, and he talks to 451 00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:34,920 Speaker 1: people that have their own internal polls a lot, and 452 00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:37,560 Speaker 1: he can't, you know, flat out say what they are, 453 00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:40,639 Speaker 1: because you know that's not cool. But he characterizes this stuff, 454 00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:42,800 Speaker 1: and that's one of the reasons I like reading his newsletter. 455 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:45,680 Speaker 1: He writes today, there are many reasons to believe that 456 00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,000 Speaker 1: Kamala Harris can win this election. The cross tabs and 457 00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,159 Speaker 1: issues questions and the times today are strong for her. 458 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 1: But there is a group of Republicans and Democrats with 459 00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,800 Speaker 1: data some without, who now believed that Trump will win 460 00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:01,400 Speaker 1: the election handily. Adherence to the point of view, whether 461 00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:05,080 Speaker 1: they are found in mar Lago, congressional campaign offices, Wall Street, 462 00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:08,439 Speaker 1: or just in DC are in front of a computer 463 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:12,640 Speaker 1: screen that looks at reams of data. They might turn 464 00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:15,720 Speaker 1: out to be wrong, but their current certainty or near 465 00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:19,600 Speaker 1: certainty is striking, both for its quite confidence and because 466 00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:22,280 Speaker 1: at the moment there's no analog on the Harris will 467 00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:28,040 Speaker 1: win side. So he's seeing a number of people Republicans 468 00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:30,520 Speaker 1: and Democrats with quite a bit of certainty that Trump's 469 00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:34,000 Speaker 1: gonna win, but nobody with certainty that Harris is gonna win. 470 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,800 Speaker 1: I'm highlighting this perspective today for at least three reasons. 471 00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:40,119 Speaker 1: One it's interesting and important that it exists to it 472 00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:43,600 Speaker 1: might be correct. Three Harris supporters, rather than being upset, 473 00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 1: should be prepared for an outcome that will rock their 474 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:50,679 Speaker 1: worlds if they think that she can't lose. There are 475 00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:52,640 Speaker 1: a lot of ways to qualify and quantify this point 476 00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:58,320 Speaker 1: of view. But I think that's interesting too. 477 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,280 Speaker 2: The people that have the most inside information. 478 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:04,879 Speaker 1: There are people that believe Trump's absolutely gonna win, but 479 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,000 Speaker 1: nobody believed that Harris is absolutely gonna win. 480 00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:09,640 Speaker 2: Huh. I wonder what they're looking at, well, Helperton. 481 00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:14,080 Speaker 3: If Helpern wasn't such a sober and smart analyst of 482 00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:17,120 Speaker 3: this sort of stuff, I'd be more skeptical than I am. 483 00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:20,639 Speaker 3: He seems to think they have really good, solid data 484 00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:22,880 Speaker 3: and we're rationale for their point of view. 485 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,200 Speaker 2: And I will never forget Carl. 486 00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:29,359 Speaker 1: Rove, right, Yeah, election night, what was it, twenty twenty twelve, 487 00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:33,120 Speaker 1: twenty twelve, And that's why my area goes, That's why 488 00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,320 Speaker 1: my brother became as cynical as he did. I sent 489 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,680 Speaker 1: a picture of us with Carl Rove from the convention, 490 00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:40,679 Speaker 1: and he's like, I don't want to see that. He's 491 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,639 Speaker 1: still met at Carlolf Because Carl Rove spent that entire cycle, 492 00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:46,600 Speaker 1: if you don't remember it, with his whiteboar kind of laughing, 493 00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,560 Speaker 1: chuckling at all. The polling was, the polling was wrong. 494 00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:52,000 Speaker 1: They're missing the Democrats. Look at how many Democrats they 495 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:54,879 Speaker 1: pulled versus Republicans. You're gonna find out an election night. 496 00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:57,320 Speaker 1: And he had a lot of people convinced boys that 497 00:25:57,320 --> 00:26:00,200 Speaker 1: they're gonna be surprised come election night. Mitt Romney is 498 00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,760 Speaker 1: actually ahead, there's no and the polls turn out to 499 00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:05,119 Speaker 1: be the actual poll The voting turned out to be 500 00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:06,680 Speaker 1: exactly what the poles were saying. 501 00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,040 Speaker 2: And so that blew up a lot of these models 502 00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:10,960 Speaker 2: for a lot of people by kicking the gut. 503 00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:13,399 Speaker 1: But I think Karl Orb had a particular reason to 504 00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:15,520 Speaker 1: talk to the Fox crowd and keep them happy through 505 00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:19,520 Speaker 1: the whole election. That's not really Mark Halprin's model. Oh, 506 00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:27,240 Speaker 1: I'm trying to prepare. This is not just a normal election, 507 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:29,680 Speaker 1: as everybody knows. I'm trying to prepare for what it's 508 00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:33,640 Speaker 1: going to be like in this country emotionally. If Trump wins, Oh, 509 00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:38,000 Speaker 1: there's no preparing for that, and that's what I'm hoping for. 510 00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:40,240 Speaker 1: But if Trump wins, it's going to be. 511 00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:41,439 Speaker 2: It's going to be. 512 00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:43,879 Speaker 1: Well, Halpern himself says there's going to be a mental 513 00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:47,359 Speaker 1: health crisis coast to coast for a certain crowd. 514 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, that's undeniable. Yeah, it will be. 515 00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:55,639 Speaker 3: And that's not like a whimsical description of it, like 516 00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:58,200 Speaker 3: people will be freaked out and pissed off. No, there 517 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:00,800 Speaker 3: will be an actual mental health christ Oh. 518 00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:02,119 Speaker 2: Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. 519 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:04,840 Speaker 1: There will be articles in the New York Times about 520 00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:06,600 Speaker 1: how to deal with the new reality. 521 00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:08,080 Speaker 2: And it's that sort of thing. 522 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:12,960 Speaker 3: Five million news XANAX prescriptions written today for the fourth 523 00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:16,119 Speaker 3: day in a row following the election of Donald Trump. 524 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:19,720 Speaker 3: Katy Perry's crying, Madonna's crying. 525 00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:23,880 Speaker 1: But it's going to be way beyond that the way 526 00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:25,720 Speaker 1: it was when he beat Hillary. I think it's going 527 00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:27,600 Speaker 1: to be a level we haven't seen. Like you just said, 528 00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:29,760 Speaker 1: I think you're right, there's no preparing for this. 529 00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:31,000 Speaker 2: Yeah. 530 00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:35,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, well, and given the left's willingness to burn it 531 00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:41,040 Speaker 3: all down if they think they're in our self righteously 532 00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:44,880 Speaker 3: righteous position, Yeah, it could be a poostorm. 533 00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:48,840 Speaker 2: The one thing that I do want them I'll shut 534 00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:49,359 Speaker 2: up about it. 535 00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:54,120 Speaker 1: I hope whoever wins it's it's it's clearly they won. 536 00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:55,680 Speaker 2: They won by enough states. 537 00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:59,840 Speaker 1: There's not one state hanging out there mostly male in ballots. 538 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:03,119 Speaker 2: You know. Just whoever wins. 539 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:07,040 Speaker 3: It's gonna be twenty seven votes spread over four states. 540 00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:14,480 Speaker 2: How does that taste? The twenty seven votes? Now, shut 541 00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:17,520 Speaker 2: up about it. Like you said, here's. 542 00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:19,560 Speaker 3: The word from our friends that simply Save Home Security. 543 00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:23,119 Speaker 3: They have this fast protect monitoring and liveguard protection. 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There's no safe like 569 00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:27,720 Speaker 3: simply say. 570 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:32,880 Speaker 1: Milton, the fourth strongest hurricane ever recorded since they've been 571 00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:36,000 Speaker 1: able to measure these sorts of things. And uh, we're 572 00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:37,520 Speaker 1: going to try to help out the victims of the 573 00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:40,640 Speaker 1: last hurricane, and uh, maybe get prepared for this next one. 574 00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,480 Speaker 1: A bunch of other stuff on the way, stay with us. 575 00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:46,760 Speaker 6: Hey, what does. 576 00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:50,000 Speaker 1: The states the storm zone need, mister President? So what 577 00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:51,440 Speaker 1: are the states of the storm zone? 578 00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:52,040 Speaker 7: What do they need? 579 00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:56,680 Speaker 2: What you call today calling the storm zone? Yes, sir, 580 00:29:57,240 --> 00:29:57,840 Speaker 2: I'm learning what. 581 00:29:57,840 --> 00:29:58,800 Speaker 6: Storm resulting about. 582 00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:04,800 Speaker 3: They get everything they did. They're very happy off the board. 583 00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:08,560 Speaker 2: I've heard that twenty times. Is still amazing. 584 00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:12,600 Speaker 1: That is a guy who's no longer in UH has 585 00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:14,120 Speaker 1: a control of his brain. 586 00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:17,000 Speaker 3: That is non compassmentus, and he's the leader of the 587 00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:17,520 Speaker 3: free world. 588 00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:20,880 Speaker 1: Great Scott, I just saw the headline that Joe Biden 589 00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,200 Speaker 1: has had an overseas trip planned. I think that's to 590 00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:25,960 Speaker 1: get him out of the country so that he's less 591 00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:28,800 Speaker 1: involved in the campaign. That's actually a strategy from what 592 00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:31,720 Speaker 1: I read. Anyway, He's going to stay in DC to 593 00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:34,200 Speaker 1: monitor the hurricanes. Okay, well as you just heard there, 594 00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:36,120 Speaker 1: what storm? Oh, I didn't know what storm you were 595 00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:39,720 Speaker 1: talking about? Not big one, the biggest one in the country. 596 00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:41,240 Speaker 1: Then everybody's talking about that one. 597 00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:46,640 Speaker 2: Milton, Milton Bradley, Milton Friedman. 598 00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:51,800 Speaker 3: A lot of folks, including ourselves, have looked upon the 599 00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:57,400 Speaker 3: devastation of the North Carolina Hills, especially with astonishment and 600 00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:01,000 Speaker 3: sadness and worry, as a lot of these people did 601 00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:03,440 Speaker 3: not have flood insurance because it never floods there, and 602 00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,400 Speaker 3: their homes and businesses were swept away, and a lot 603 00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:08,440 Speaker 3: of folks would love to help if they can. We 604 00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:12,560 Speaker 3: have done some vetting and digging and looked into who's 605 00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:16,760 Speaker 3: actually on the ground doing great work there and helping 606 00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:20,120 Speaker 3: people at the point of the disaster, and it's tough 607 00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:24,080 Speaker 3: to beat the United Way of the counties involved. If 608 00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:26,520 Speaker 3: you would like to kick in a few dollars, we 609 00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:30,200 Speaker 3: certainly encourage you to do that. Just go to Armstrong 610 00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:32,440 Speaker 3: and Getty dot com, scroll down a tiny bit and 611 00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:33,880 Speaker 3: it's donate here. 612 00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:35,120 Speaker 2: It's super easy. 613 00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:40,240 Speaker 3: Again, we've talked to these folks man that everybody needs food, clothing, water, everything, everything. 614 00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:45,000 Speaker 3: Everything's gone medicine and they're uninsured. It's just it's a nightmare. 615 00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:46,840 Speaker 3: So anyway, if you'd like to help, good Armstrong and 616 00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:47,480 Speaker 3: Getty dot com. 617 00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:49,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, so this is the United Way for that from 618 00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:52,240 Speaker 1: that very county that's getting the most attention. And you 619 00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:55,320 Speaker 1: know these are people that live there, not coming in 620 00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:57,280 Speaker 1: from somewhere else and trying to figure out how to 621 00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:00,520 Speaker 1: handle it. They they this is their community. So yeah, 622 00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:02,360 Speaker 1: go to Armstrong Getty dot com. That's what you do. 623 00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:06,040 Speaker 2: Yes, that's what I said. Repeat Italy. 624 00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:08,640 Speaker 1: So you got another hurricane barren down and who knows 625 00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:10,520 Speaker 1: what this is going to do to FEMA. I came 626 00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:16,040 Speaker 1: across this from some national meteorologist last night. Uh, this 627 00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:19,240 Speaker 1: is nothing short of astronomical. I'm at a loss for 628 00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:24,600 Speaker 1: words to meteorology, meteorologically describe you the storm's small eye 629 00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:28,520 Speaker 1: and intensity eight hundred and ninety seven millibars. Is that 630 00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:30,840 Speaker 1: what they use of pressure? With one hundred and eighty 631 00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:33,240 Speaker 1: mile an hour max sustained winds gusts of two hundred 632 00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:36,160 Speaker 1: this is now the fourth strongest hurricane ever recorded by 633 00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:38,840 Speaker 1: pressure on this side of the world, and the eye 634 00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,440 Speaker 1: is tiny in all caps, which I guess matters. At 635 00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:44,120 Speaker 1: nearly three point eight miles wide, this hurricane is nearing 636 00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:49,880 Speaker 1: the mathematical limit of what Earth's atmosphere can produce. Yikes, 637 00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:53,960 Speaker 1: it's almost at the peak of what could even happen 638 00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:56,880 Speaker 1: on the planet. 639 00:32:56,040 --> 00:33:03,040 Speaker 3: Last night, wivey, and so Tampa Bay is particularly vulnerable. 640 00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:06,680 Speaker 3: That's where the hurricane appears to be headed. It's densely populated, 641 00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:10,640 Speaker 3: fast growing area, and I was astounded to learn it 642 00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:13,800 Speaker 3: hasn't been hit by a major hurricane in over a century. 643 00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:17,160 Speaker 3: It has dodged numerous storms over the year until two 644 00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:19,840 Speaker 3: weeks ago when Helene made landfall to the north. But 645 00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:23,480 Speaker 3: it really hammered Tampa Bay with a powerful storm surge, 646 00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:26,560 Speaker 3: which is essentially the force of the storm pushes ocean 647 00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:30,360 Speaker 3: water up onto shore, and the speed of the winds 648 00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:33,360 Speaker 3: is a horrendous problem obviously, and the rainfall is a 649 00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:36,120 Speaker 3: big deal. But the size of this storm and its 650 00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:39,280 Speaker 3: ability to create storm surge, I guess is also you know, 651 00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:42,720 Speaker 3: at the tip top of the scale. They're predicting a 652 00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:45,160 Speaker 3: storm surge at ten to fifteen feet for the Tampa 653 00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:47,840 Speaker 3: Bay area and up to fifteen inches of rainfall across 654 00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:52,080 Speaker 3: parts of Florida and Tampa and Saint Pete most vulnerable 655 00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:56,080 Speaker 3: to flooding damage, according the most vulnerable metro area in 656 00:33:56,160 --> 00:34:00,480 Speaker 3: America to flooding damage more than New Orleans because of 657 00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:03,800 Speaker 3: a shallow continental shelf off the coast and a funnel 658 00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:07,040 Speaker 3: effect in Tampa Bay that creates the potential for a 659 00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:11,000 Speaker 3: huge buildup of water that can just wash away neighborhoods. 660 00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:14,680 Speaker 1: And Mike's Katrina was a three when it hit shore. 661 00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:17,000 Speaker 1: So the category it is when it hits shore is 662 00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:18,640 Speaker 1: not the key to the whole thing. 663 00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:24,799 Speaker 3: Right right, Well, it's it's twin menaces, different menaces. And 664 00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:29,640 Speaker 3: I had not realized the Tampa Bay metro area is 665 00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:32,000 Speaker 3: now three point two million. 666 00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:37,400 Speaker 1: People, So the mayor, so I was down in Florida 667 00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:40,360 Speaker 1: one time before or after Hurricane I don't remember. I 668 00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:42,239 Speaker 1: was down in Key West and talking to some of 669 00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:44,400 Speaker 1: the Key West locals in the bar or whatever, and like, 670 00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:45,120 Speaker 1: did you stay? 671 00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:46,000 Speaker 2: We always stay. 672 00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:49,160 Speaker 1: They always tell you got to leave every hurricane three 673 00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:50,600 Speaker 1: times a year. They tell us this is going to 674 00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:53,759 Speaker 1: be the worst one ever and whatever. And they were 675 00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:57,440 Speaker 1: very blase about it. You know that's true until it's not. 676 00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:01,480 Speaker 1: And the mayor of Tampa is saying if you do 677 00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:04,480 Speaker 1: not leave, you will die. That was her declarative statement. 678 00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:07,920 Speaker 1: If you do not leave, you will die. Wow, that's something. 679 00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:12,719 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, well Tampa's I mean, have you ever been 680 00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,839 Speaker 3: to Florida? Tampa is as flat as a frying pan, 681 00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:22,239 Speaker 3: and the drainage systems aren't the best, and so yeah, 682 00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:26,640 Speaker 3: they think there's a tremendous potential for unthinkable loss of 683 00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:27,840 Speaker 3: life and property. 684 00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,160 Speaker 2: Anyway, we've just got a minute. That's too bad. 685 00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:32,839 Speaker 3: We've got a couple of great emails from folks who've 686 00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:34,200 Speaker 3: dealt with FEMA. 687 00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:34,719 Speaker 5: HM. 688 00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:37,239 Speaker 1: We wish you could come next hour with that because 689 00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:41,120 Speaker 1: that's the hot topic man. And again, this could be 690 00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:45,239 Speaker 1: a huge political issue because the current administration is going 691 00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:48,920 Speaker 1: to get tagged with any failures and FEMA's already stretched thin, 692 00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:51,320 Speaker 1: claiming they're out of money, and this Milton's about to 693 00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:54,040 Speaker 1: hit Florida, and it ain't like the people in North 694 00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:56,040 Speaker 1: Carolina are all of a sudden not gonna need help 695 00:35:56,320 --> 00:35:58,320 Speaker 1: once Tampa Bay's getting all the attention. 696 00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:01,560 Speaker 3: Well, given the fact that the Department of Homeland Security 697 00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:04,680 Speaker 3: oversees all of this, I will not hear a suggestion 698 00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:08,279 Speaker 3: that Alejandro Mayorkis is anything less than a stellar beer. 699 00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:12,040 Speaker 1: I've got a busy day Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and so on. 700 00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:15,719 Speaker 3: So the world's stupidest waste of skin is. 701 00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:21,480 Speaker 2: In charge of all of this. God save us Armstrong 702 00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:22,080 Speaker 2: and Getty