WEBVTT - Improving COVID-19 Contact Tracing, Jobless Claims 0:00:00.720 --> 0:00:03.720 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.320 Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the 0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:11.160 latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics, 0:00:11.240 --> 0:00:14.280 all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors, 0:00:14.440 --> 0:00:16.439 and of course Carol that's part of a team of 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:19.959 twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts and more than a 0:00:20.040 --> 0:00:22.959 hundred and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg 0:00:22.960 --> 0:00:26.079 Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, blo Bloomberg dot com. You 0:00:26.079 --> 0:00:28.280 can also listen to our radio show at two pm 0:00:28.320 --> 0:00:31.159 Eastern on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on 0:00:31.200 --> 0:00:36.160 YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. Amid all of this 0:00:36.400 --> 0:00:40.640 talk about how we get back, maybe eating outdoors, maybe 0:00:40.640 --> 0:00:44.080 getting back to the office. We know that life is 0:00:44.080 --> 0:00:46.520 going to be different, and one of the key elements 0:00:46.560 --> 0:00:50.880 of how we continue to get back is can we test, 0:00:51.000 --> 0:00:55.319 and maybe more importantly, can we trace? Contact Tracing has 0:00:55.360 --> 0:00:57.800 been a term of art that we have all learned. 0:00:57.880 --> 0:01:00.560 Emily Gurley is with us. She is Associated Scientists at 0:01:00.600 --> 0:01:04.280 John's Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health. She joins 0:01:04.360 --> 0:01:05.880 us on the phone from Baltimore. As you might be 0:01:05.959 --> 0:01:07.560 able to tell by the name of the Bloomberg School 0:01:07.560 --> 0:01:09.760 of Public Health, it's supported by Mike Bloomberg. He is 0:01:09.800 --> 0:01:12.320 the founder of Bloomberg FLA frees and Bloomberg LP, the 0:01:12.360 --> 0:01:15.480 owner of this radio station. Emily, Really nice to have 0:01:15.520 --> 0:01:18.880 you with Carol and myself. Oh, it's a pleasure to 0:01:18.920 --> 0:01:22.160 be here. Thanks for the invitation. So tell us what's 0:01:22.160 --> 0:01:24.640 going on, because I feel like contact tracing is one 0:01:24.640 --> 0:01:26.560 of these things that if I go back and I've 0:01:26.600 --> 0:01:28.720 lost all sense of time and space at this point, 0:01:28.840 --> 0:01:30.880 you know, working at home for twelve weeks, but it 0:01:30.920 --> 0:01:32.720 feels like a few weeks ago. This really came to 0:01:32.720 --> 0:01:34.840 the forum. We said, okay, this is what we need 0:01:34.880 --> 0:01:37.280 to do. But this is what we need to do. 0:01:37.440 --> 0:01:40.680 Is a complicated process, or at least a fairly ownerous 0:01:40.720 --> 0:01:43.560 process of just standing this up, as they say, help 0:01:43.680 --> 0:01:47.400 us understand how it works and where we are sure. 0:01:47.800 --> 0:01:52.440 So contact tracing is not is not new departments to 0:01:52.440 --> 0:01:56.160 do this every day across the country. So it's not 0:01:56.240 --> 0:01:58.760 that we don't know how to do contact tracing or 0:01:58.800 --> 0:02:03.200 that we're not doing it. The problem is that contact 0:02:03.200 --> 0:02:08.400 tracing for COVID requires us to do contact tracing at 0:02:08.440 --> 0:02:12.840 both a scale and speed that are really unprecedented and 0:02:12.960 --> 0:02:16.400 way beyond what we need for other diseases UM that 0:02:16.520 --> 0:02:22.640 we currently UM track with with this program so UM. 0:02:22.800 --> 0:02:26.600 So the big lift is getting our programs up to speed, 0:02:27.040 --> 0:02:30.440 which requires huge resource investments if we're going to do 0:02:30.480 --> 0:02:35.000 it right. So and what what what's involved emily in 0:02:35.120 --> 0:02:41.639 doing it right? So doing it right means making sure 0:02:41.840 --> 0:02:45.200 so it doesn't stand alone from testing, it links up 0:02:45.240 --> 0:02:49.560 with testing. In fact, when someone is diagnosed with COVID nineteen, 0:02:49.720 --> 0:02:53.640 that's where the whole chain of events starts. So it's 0:02:53.680 --> 0:02:57.160 important that folks, you know, as soon as they develop 0:02:57.320 --> 0:02:59.480 any signs and symptoms, are able to get a test, 0:02:59.600 --> 0:03:02.920 get it quickly, and get results quickly UM. And then 0:03:03.200 --> 0:03:07.080 from there a number of things happen. So that person 0:03:07.120 --> 0:03:11.640 will be contacted by the health department about their diagnosis. 0:03:12.080 --> 0:03:15.040 They'll be asked to isolate themselves from others so that 0:03:15.120 --> 0:03:20.960 they don't uh transmit the infection on UM. That's a 0:03:21.000 --> 0:03:24.240 big ask. There's a lot to sort out there in 0:03:24.360 --> 0:03:26.560 terms of the logistics of your life. If you're not 0:03:26.600 --> 0:03:29.200 going to have contact with other people while you're sick, 0:03:29.560 --> 0:03:31.520 and so they help people come up with a plan, 0:03:31.720 --> 0:03:35.600 they make sure they know where they can get medical care. Um. 0:03:35.680 --> 0:03:39.520 And then the next part is identifying the people who 0:03:39.560 --> 0:03:42.600 they may have already infected, the people who they may 0:03:42.640 --> 0:03:47.960 have exposed. And one of the difficult things about this 0:03:48.080 --> 0:03:51.960 virus is that people can be infectious and infect other 0:03:52.000 --> 0:03:55.520 people before they themselves know they're sick. Right, so up 0:03:55.520 --> 0:03:58.600 to two days before you get sick, you could infect 0:03:58.600 --> 0:04:01.920 somebody else. And really, you know, on the day the 0:04:02.000 --> 0:04:04.960 first day you start feeling ill is probably one of 0:04:05.000 --> 0:04:10.400 the days when you're when you're also very infectious. So um. 0:04:10.560 --> 0:04:13.920 So the person from the health department who calls who 0:04:13.960 --> 0:04:18.000 calls the patient, we're calling them contact tracers, uh, and 0:04:18.120 --> 0:04:21.520 this example, they would try to identify who may have 0:04:21.600 --> 0:04:24.320 been exposed to that patient and then they get the 0:04:24.360 --> 0:04:27.800 contact information of those people so that they can let 0:04:27.839 --> 0:04:31.400 them know that they've been exposed. Because what you want 0:04:31.400 --> 0:04:34.400 to try to do is ask those people to change 0:04:34.440 --> 0:04:39.559 their behavior also to quarantine themselves so that they don't 0:04:39.680 --> 0:04:44.800 unknowingly infect someone out because again they if they've been infected, 0:04:45.279 --> 0:04:48.400 they could become infectious before they know that they're sick. 0:04:49.279 --> 0:04:52.240 So this is so it's a it's a program facilitated 0:04:52.240 --> 0:04:57.880 by contact tracers to notify people who have been exposed 0:04:58.040 --> 0:05:01.920 so that we can try to stop change of train submission. Right. So, 0:05:02.400 --> 0:05:05.600 just I'm going to be a voice of skepticism here 0:05:05.640 --> 0:05:09.400 a little bit because for it understanding how this works. 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:12.800 You know, it feels like one of the tough links 0:05:12.800 --> 0:05:15.880 in this chain, as it were, is that ask that 0:05:15.920 --> 0:05:19.480 you just described. Hey, you're getting a call from a 0:05:19.520 --> 0:05:22.480 contact tracer because at some point along the course of 0:05:22.520 --> 0:05:25.920 the last few days or whenever it was, you've been exposed. 0:05:26.360 --> 0:05:29.440 Do you have any sense of how receptive people are 0:05:29.520 --> 0:05:31.720 to that of saying, all right, now I've got to 0:05:31.760 --> 0:05:34.960 take two weeks off of work or two weeks off 0:05:35.040 --> 0:05:37.440 of you know, being around my family or whatever. That 0:05:37.640 --> 0:05:40.600 is what evidence do we have in in terms of 0:05:40.680 --> 0:05:44.680 candidly like how people will sort of adopt this behavior? 0:05:46.040 --> 0:05:49.360 So I think, well, so adoptive behavior in terms of 0:05:49.440 --> 0:05:53.680 change their behavior and quarantine. Yes, exactly. Yeah. Um, I 0:05:53.720 --> 0:05:55.680 think that there are a couple of ways to think 0:05:55.680 --> 0:05:59.440 about this. Um. I it's it's a difficult thing to do, 0:05:59.600 --> 0:06:04.120 as you say, um, and there will be some people 0:06:04.120 --> 0:06:09.839 who will be unwilling to do it um I UM. 0:06:09.880 --> 0:06:11.880 I believe, however, and I think that the data we 0:06:11.920 --> 0:06:14.880 have so far shows that people are willing to do 0:06:14.960 --> 0:06:21.080 it because what's the alternative. The alternative is that you 0:06:21.160 --> 0:06:25.080 infect people that you know, that you love, that you 0:06:25.200 --> 0:06:28.839 work with. Um and as we all know, most of 0:06:28.960 --> 0:06:32.960 us have people within our world that are at high 0:06:33.000 --> 0:06:35.960 risk first year disease. That's a really good point, Charlie 0:06:36.000 --> 0:06:38.280 mentioning some of the latest from Johns Hopkins, which has 0:06:38.279 --> 0:06:41.320 been closely tracking everything to do with the virus. We've 0:06:41.360 --> 0:06:43.919 got with us right now. Emily Gurley still still with us, 0:06:43.960 --> 0:06:48.119 Associate scientist at Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health. 0:06:48.320 --> 0:06:51.160 As we mentioned earlier, the Bloomberg School of Public Health 0:06:51.160 --> 0:06:53.880 supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg LP and 0:06:53.880 --> 0:06:57.880 Bloomberg Philanthropies. One thing I wonder, Emily, is I got 0:06:57.920 --> 0:07:01.280 a couple of questions. Corporations, Well, they I don't know, 0:07:01.320 --> 0:07:03.839 what are you hearing? Well, they ultimately play a big 0:07:03.960 --> 0:07:07.719 role in contact tracing and might get to a point 0:07:07.720 --> 0:07:10.040 where they kind of demanded of workers to make sure 0:07:10.520 --> 0:07:15.520 that everyone is keeping and staying safe. UM. Well, I 0:07:15.560 --> 0:07:18.400 think if we're if we're going back to work. If 0:07:18.400 --> 0:07:22.680 we're reopening our societies, there's no no risk life. Um, 0:07:22.880 --> 0:07:27.120 So everything we do have to function around reducing risk 0:07:27.200 --> 0:07:32.080 wherever we can. Um. So workplaces are you know, that's 0:07:32.080 --> 0:07:35.680 where people spend time. So UM, I think it just 0:07:35.840 --> 0:07:40.440 makes sense that corporations are thinking about, you know, in 0:07:40.480 --> 0:07:45.440 their own particular context, what are the vulnerabilities that they face, 0:07:45.560 --> 0:07:49.320 where could um, where could infections take place? What are 0:07:49.320 --> 0:07:54.280 they doing to prevent that? Uh? If someone is infected, Uh, 0:07:54.400 --> 0:07:56.720 there you would want to know, and you'd want to 0:07:56.800 --> 0:08:00.360 let workers know that they've been exposed. Again, for all 0:08:00.360 --> 0:08:03.880 the reasons that we've already discussed, no one would want 0:08:03.920 --> 0:08:08.440 to unknowingly infect someone else. I think that you you know, 0:08:08.600 --> 0:08:11.320 you should also think about if um, you know, just 0:08:11.440 --> 0:08:15.360 your systems, then if someone is infected, um, you know, 0:08:15.400 --> 0:08:18.040 how many contacts have they had, it might be worth 0:08:18.120 --> 0:08:23.200 while to rearrange workflows or how you do business so 0:08:23.240 --> 0:08:26.520 that if one person is infected, you don't have everyone 0:08:26.560 --> 0:08:30.560 else quarantining because they've all had close contact with that person. 0:08:32.080 --> 0:08:35.920 All right. Uh, that's really an an interesting point. So 0:08:36.160 --> 0:08:41.000 are you seeing like different areas or different places or 0:08:41.040 --> 0:08:44.040 different institutions who are sort of doing this. Well, what 0:08:44.040 --> 0:08:45.760 what are the role models that we should be thinking 0:08:45.760 --> 0:08:50.040 about here, Emily, Um, I think we're all still figuring 0:08:50.080 --> 0:08:54.040 this out. UM, so we're still in learning mode. I 0:08:54.120 --> 0:08:58.240 think it's important that uh, you know, anyone who's doing 0:08:58.280 --> 0:09:01.320 this be reporting out how it's worked, ging what's working, 0:09:01.400 --> 0:09:06.600 what's not, um, just for everyone's improvement. I think that 0:09:06.640 --> 0:09:10.200 there are some really low tech, easy things that we 0:09:10.240 --> 0:09:12.920 can do, particularly from the business side, that just make 0:09:12.960 --> 0:09:17.640 a lot of sense, including making sure people know that 0:09:17.679 --> 0:09:21.640 they should and can stay home when they're sick. Even 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:25.360 if you're just feeling a little unwell, it's worth it 0:09:25.440 --> 0:09:28.280 to stay home and this context and that will go 0:09:28.440 --> 0:09:31.720 a long way. So simple, right, but it's just common sense. UM. 0:09:31.760 --> 0:09:34.679 One last question, what do we learn from HIV contact 0:09:34.760 --> 0:09:40.000 tracing that can help us here? So contract tracing for 0:09:40.120 --> 0:09:43.040 HIV is similar, doesn't have to be done again at 0:09:43.040 --> 0:09:47.439 the scale and speed as COVID. UM, but we do 0:09:47.520 --> 0:09:50.959 have a few things that are important. One is, um, 0:09:51.000 --> 0:09:54.040 you know, stigma doesn't help, It doesn't help prevention efforts, 0:09:54.040 --> 0:09:58.360 It doesn't help people who are infected, so UM, you know, 0:09:58.600 --> 0:10:01.640 so we should do everything we can to avoid that. UM. 0:10:01.720 --> 0:10:06.400 The second thing is it works. Um, if we can 0:10:06.440 --> 0:10:09.319 find people, help them change their behavior so they don't 0:10:09.360 --> 0:10:12.240 spread it onto others, we're doing a service to our 0:10:12.280 --> 0:10:15.439 whole community. Um. So I think those are the two 0:10:15.440 --> 0:10:17.920 major things. Yeah, and that's a really important one. And 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:20.160 I'm glad that you framed it the way that you 0:10:20.200 --> 0:10:22.480 did in the earlier part of the conversation that you 0:10:22.559 --> 0:10:25.120 need to remind people. And I do think we're doing 0:10:25.160 --> 0:10:27.720 a better job of this, and I hope it continues 0:10:27.760 --> 0:10:31.080 to resonate that. You know, even in the controversy around well, 0:10:31.080 --> 0:10:33.600 I don't want to wear a mask, people essentially say, listen, 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:35.880 you have to do this because this isn't just about you. 0:10:35.960 --> 0:10:38.199 This is about the community. And I think you put 0:10:38.240 --> 0:10:40.640 it really well, Emily, that this is about people that 0:10:40.720 --> 0:10:42.760 you care about. You know, people in your family, people 0:10:42.760 --> 0:10:46.200 who you work with, your friends, your your close circle. Uh. 0:10:46.240 --> 0:10:48.880 You know, even if you can't get your head around, uh, 0:10:48.920 --> 0:10:51.720 the good of greater society, you know, you think about 0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:56.160 the people that you love in many cases. All right, Emily, girlie, 0:10:56.200 --> 0:10:59.360 thank you so much. Associate scientists JOHNS. Hopkins University, Bloomberg 0:10:59.400 --> 0:11:02.439 School Public Health joining us on the phone from Baltimore. 0:11:02.520 --> 0:11:05.080 It is you, it is me, it is everyone. It's 0:11:05.120 --> 0:11:07.440 like one of those situations, right, you really need to 0:11:07.440 --> 0:11:10.760 think about your community the greater good. Uh, And putting 0:11:10.760 --> 0:11:13.800 on a mask is so simple. So uh, certainly great 0:11:13.840 --> 0:11:16.440 to hear from her and responding. And basically, if you're 0:11:16.440 --> 0:11:18.640 told like you've been exposed, then you need to do 0:11:18.720 --> 0:11:21.360 something to take yourself out of it right in many ways, 0:11:21.400 --> 0:11:24.800 and let everybody that you expose know about it, right exactly. 0:11:25.360 --> 0:11:28.960 You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and 0:11:29.040 --> 0:11:33.360 Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. All right, so let's talk 0:11:33.360 --> 0:11:36.600 a little bit about the world of economics, because clearly 0:11:36.840 --> 0:11:39.800 it is top of mind the back half of this 0:11:39.840 --> 0:11:43.800 week given all the jobs and jobless data that we 0:11:43.880 --> 0:11:47.560 are getting, and we also are coming to understand the 0:11:47.640 --> 0:11:51.880 crises that we're facing our economic in many ways at 0:11:52.000 --> 0:11:54.080 their core, and we're going to talk about that throughout 0:11:54.120 --> 0:11:57.079 the course of the show. Let's continue the conversation right 0:11:57.080 --> 0:11:59.560 now with Steep Blitz, He's chief US economist, with Ta 0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:02.640 Lambard joining us on the phone from New York City. Steve, 0:12:02.679 --> 0:12:04.560 it's nice to have you with Caroline. Myself, I do 0:12:04.640 --> 0:12:08.160 wonder as you look at the data that continue to 0:12:08.360 --> 0:12:12.040 come out, you know, you see the market reacting and 0:12:12.240 --> 0:12:14.280 as our own Michael McKee, who I know, you know 0:12:14.280 --> 0:12:17.800 who said earlier, Uh, it's quite a day when we say, oh, 0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:21.000 one point nine million jobless claims. Okay, cool, better than 0:12:21.000 --> 0:12:22.160 I thought it was going to be. I mean that 0:12:22.520 --> 0:12:24.880 it's still is hard for me to get my head 0:12:24.920 --> 0:12:27.640 around it. And yet you look at this market with 0:12:27.679 --> 0:12:29.920 a clear eye. What do you see out there? What 0:12:29.960 --> 0:12:33.480 are the important things we need to be zeroing in on? Well, 0:12:33.520 --> 0:12:35.560 I think the important things we need to be zero 0:12:36.280 --> 0:12:40.040 you know. First of all, Hello, everybody, how are you? 0:12:40.320 --> 0:12:44.160 We're doing okay? I hope you are too, Yes, yes, yes, 0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:48.120 what we are? Um? So the thing to really key 0:12:48.200 --> 0:12:52.760 on is this, you're looking for two things. You're looking 0:12:52.920 --> 0:12:57.640 for whether or not there's a broadening of unemployment beyond 0:12:58.000 --> 0:13:01.720 the initial firms that we're shut down. And when you 0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:05.040 look and reading the paper and Bloomberg reporting this company, 0:13:05.160 --> 0:13:09.600 that company is starting to report layoffs that are you know, second, third, 0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:13.080 fourth degrees away from you know, the local store that 0:13:13.160 --> 0:13:15.959 gets shut down. That's what you're looking for. And when 0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:20.160 I looked at the ADP numbers yesterday, and admittedly employment 0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:24.520 is a lagging indicator. UM it began to tell me 0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:28.559 that one the two million a week in initial unemployment 0:13:28.559 --> 0:13:32.520 claims is not just an administrative backlog, which we know 0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:36.360 it does exist, but it's also telling us that there 0:13:36.480 --> 0:13:40.520 is a broadening of unemployment. So what you want to 0:13:40.559 --> 0:13:44.560 see in the weekly claims numbers is is that number 0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:48.440 of continuing claims starting to go down. Right as the 0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:52.719 economy reopens, people get called back. PPP is supposed to 0:13:52.760 --> 0:13:55.440 put people back on the payroll. There was a big 0:13:55.520 --> 0:13:58.920 jump and last and that's really two weeks last. By 0:13:58.960 --> 0:14:02.120 week two weeks ago, we saw a big drop in 0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:06.440 continuing claims. That was great. We saw small and small 0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:10.080 increased and increase about six thousand this week. So that's 0:14:10.760 --> 0:14:14.840 probably and then what should really if I'm in the 0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:17.360 equity market's what I should really be focused on, because 0:14:17.400 --> 0:14:20.920 the equity markets obviously is a forward discounting mechanism. As 0:14:20.920 --> 0:14:24.360 we all know. UM of the people who said they 0:14:24.440 --> 0:14:30.400 lost their jobs last month said it was temporary. That's 0:14:30.400 --> 0:14:35.000 an extraordinarily high number. And that's one of the reasons 0:14:35.120 --> 0:14:39.560 why forward expectations by consumers and business has been that 0:14:39.680 --> 0:14:43.160 this is sort of a three month bank holiday. I 0:14:43.360 --> 0:14:46.920 want to know tomorrow it's gonna be a horrendous number. 0:14:46.960 --> 0:14:49.240 The unemployment number rates are gonna be higher. And I 0:14:49.400 --> 0:14:51.520 and and I get all that, we're gonna see that, 0:14:51.600 --> 0:14:54.480 and that's going to be the headline. But what really 0:14:54.520 --> 0:14:59.000 look at is has that number shifted as people have 0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:01.680 people begun of view, they are on their jobs that 0:15:01.720 --> 0:15:04.920 were lost no longer being a temporary loss, but a 0:15:04.960 --> 0:15:09.680 permanent loss. Well and and well and Steve, we know, right, 0:15:09.760 --> 0:15:13.720 permanent becomes our temperate, temporary excuse me becomes permanent, especially 0:15:14.320 --> 0:15:16.880 if there isn't demand on the other side of this, 0:15:17.040 --> 0:15:19.960 like we don't. We don't really know what growth is 0:15:20.000 --> 0:15:22.000 going to be like on the other side. And maybe 0:15:22.080 --> 0:15:25.080 we can watch Asia for some ideas, you know, as 0:15:25.080 --> 0:15:27.280 they come back from the virus. They're ahead of us, certainly, 0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:30.160 but we just don't know. And if a business doesn't 0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:33.480 have demand, they're not going to hold onto workers, They're 0:15:33.480 --> 0:15:35.680 not going to bring in new workers. I mean, we've 0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:38.160 we've seen that. We've talked to CEOs who thought we're 0:15:38.160 --> 0:15:40.120 gonna hold out of workers, you know, they you know, 0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:42.960 back when when this all started, and then they've had 0:15:43.000 --> 0:15:47.200 to let folks go right exactly, And that's why that 0:15:47.320 --> 0:15:51.720 number is so important. The most extraordinary aspect was a 0:15:51.720 --> 0:15:55.320 lot of extraordinary aspects. But one of the extraordinary aspects 0:15:55.320 --> 0:15:58.840 of this whole downs aren't is that usually ex current 0:15:58.880 --> 0:16:02.760 expectations and forward expectations by consumers and I'm really looking 0:16:02.760 --> 0:16:07.320 at the conference board numbers drop this time. The current 0:16:07.320 --> 0:16:11.760 expectations dropped, the forward expectations never did. And if you 0:16:11.800 --> 0:16:15.720 look at the Philly Fed Survey of manufacturing, their current 0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:19.000 business numbers dropped as they would normally would in a recession, 0:16:19.840 --> 0:16:25.880 the forward expectations did not. If those numbers start to slip, 0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:30.520 the equity market has to slip with it, because that 0:16:30.640 --> 0:16:35.480 forward expectations is also what's built into the equity market, 0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:39.960 and liquidity works to boost the equity market when the 0:16:40.000 --> 0:16:44.040 forward expectations are strong. But when those forward expectations starts 0:16:44.040 --> 0:16:46.440 a week, you know a lot of money can go 0:16:46.440 --> 0:16:50.520 into cash too. And so is that a and how 0:16:50.600 --> 0:16:55.120 soon will we kind of get a really good picture 0:16:55.320 --> 0:16:57.920 of whether that is the case. Is it measured in 0:16:57.960 --> 0:16:59.800 weeks or is this something that we're gonna have to 0:16:59.800 --> 0:17:03.360 watch for the balance of this year. Steve, I think 0:17:03.480 --> 0:17:08.000 July August, if we are not seeing some real improvement 0:17:08.160 --> 0:17:11.560 or the numbers, that we will see improvement. I mean, 0:17:11.600 --> 0:17:13.360 I do think the unemployment rate is gonna go from 0:17:13.359 --> 0:17:17.760 say percent down to ten percent, and that's gonna feel great. 0:17:18.680 --> 0:17:22.280 But eight ten percent in this country is a severe recession. 0:17:23.119 --> 0:17:26.840 And by August you're gonna see we should begin to 0:17:26.880 --> 0:17:29.639 see whether or not the unemployment rate is settling into 0:17:29.720 --> 0:17:31.679 Not only is that it's settling the eight to ten 0:17:31.760 --> 0:17:37.400 percent range, but who's unemployed moves up from the low skills, 0:17:37.480 --> 0:17:41.639 you know, low wage worker to It's exactly what Carol 0:17:41.720 --> 0:17:43.760 you were just talking about, which is it starts to 0:17:43.800 --> 0:17:46.359 move up the food chain, so to speak, as a 0:17:46.520 --> 0:17:49.400 terrible word to say, it's wort that just came out live, 0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:52.560 but moves up the income chain to people who to 0:17:52.720 --> 0:17:55.920 higher skills hire income workers. And that's going to change 0:17:55.960 --> 0:17:59.400 the political tenor as well, which is what our Bloomberg 0:17:59.400 --> 0:18:01.679 Economics they've done a lot of work on this. We 0:18:01.720 --> 0:18:05.119 talked with Lena Schliteva about it yesterday, that it's you know, 0:18:05.200 --> 0:18:07.760 that second wave is not blue collar, it's white collar. 0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:11.400 So it really definitely changes the dynamics it's all bad. 0:18:11.640 --> 0:18:13.680 Whether you're blue collar or white collar, it's not good. 0:18:13.920 --> 0:18:16.399 Steve Blitz, thank you so much, Chief US economist at 0:18:16.400 --> 0:18:19.960 TS Lombard on the phone in upstate New York. This 0:18:20.359 --> 0:18:24.040 is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly 0:18:24.240 --> 0:18:29.120 on Bloomberg Radio. Jason Kelly, Yes, we actually have had 0:18:29.119 --> 0:18:33.840 some IPO activity as of late. We have, indeed, uh 0:18:33.880 --> 0:18:36.399 coming back slowly, but it's been a little bit. Yeah, 0:18:36.440 --> 0:18:38.479 I mean it's interesting. You know, I was listening to 0:18:39.080 --> 0:18:42.200 a conversation David West was having with a banker, uh, 0:18:42.240 --> 0:18:44.600 an adviser, I believe, right before we came on the air, 0:18:45.119 --> 0:18:46.920 and you know, talking about M and A activity, I 0:18:47.040 --> 0:18:50.040 P O activity. I mean certainly, Look, bankers don't get 0:18:50.040 --> 0:18:52.520 paid if they don't get deals done. But you do 0:18:52.720 --> 0:18:56.600 wonder about the kind of the shape and the substance 0:18:57.119 --> 0:19:00.200 of these deals, both companies going public and M and 0:19:00.240 --> 0:19:02.560 A activity out there. We know that private equity deals 0:19:02.560 --> 0:19:04.639 are continuing to happen in some form of fashion. We 0:19:04.680 --> 0:19:07.120 have the KKR Cody deal. Yep, that's our daily mention 0:19:07.160 --> 0:19:09.280 of Cody. But I'm sure you'll mentioned in the stocks too, 0:19:09.400 --> 0:19:13.240 do um. But uh, you know, you do think about 0:19:13.600 --> 0:19:16.800 how money gets deployed, because as we know, there is 0:19:16.840 --> 0:19:20.240 this wall of capital that needs to be put to 0:19:20.280 --> 0:19:23.439 work from a private equity perspective. And look, we have 0:19:23.480 --> 0:19:26.040 a stock market that is very healthy, and so why 0:19:26.040 --> 0:19:28.159 wouldn't you go into that market at this point? If 0:19:28.640 --> 0:19:31.560 it's very simple too when it comes to initial public offerings, 0:19:31.600 --> 0:19:35.480 companies do not bring companies public, or bankers don't bring 0:19:35.520 --> 0:19:38.439 companies public. Companies don't. Startups don't want to go public 0:19:38.720 --> 0:19:41.560 if the market isn't warm and welcoming. And so when 0:19:41.600 --> 0:19:45.720 you start to see activity, that's optimism about the business environment. 0:19:45.720 --> 0:19:48.960 Warner Music of course, just going public. And then of 0:19:49.000 --> 0:19:52.840 course today we had a big one zoom Info. Don't 0:19:52.920 --> 0:19:55.240 be confused with zoom the virtual and cloud based video 0:19:55.240 --> 0:19:59.240 conferencing company UM, which has also been out there, but 0:19:59.359 --> 0:20:02.080 zoom Info of the tickers z I it I p 0:20:02.280 --> 0:20:05.960 oed at twenty one dollars to share shot up UH 0:20:06.000 --> 0:20:08.320 in its first day of trading. And lucky for us, 0:20:08.320 --> 0:20:10.240 we actually have Henry Shack. He is the founder and 0:20:10.320 --> 0:20:13.640 CEO Assume Info. He joins us on the phone from 0:20:13.680 --> 0:20:18.240 I Believe, Vancouver, Washington. UM Henry, first of all, congratulations. 0:20:18.560 --> 0:20:21.640 UM on the I p O. I gotta ask you 0:20:21.800 --> 0:20:24.399 right out of the gate, though twenty one dollars at 0:20:24.440 --> 0:20:27.960 prices at its shot as high as forty dollars, do 0:20:28.000 --> 0:20:33.400 you kind of feel like the banker's miss price this one? Uh, 0:20:33.440 --> 0:20:36.840 thank you for having me on. Um, you know, I don't. Look, 0:20:36.880 --> 0:20:40.040 I I we brought together the best advisors in the 0:20:40.080 --> 0:20:43.479 world with JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley and Credit Swiss 0:20:43.480 --> 0:20:46.040 and Barclay's and b of A, and so we feel 0:20:46.080 --> 0:20:48.560 like we we feel like we bought the best brains 0:20:48.600 --> 0:20:51.160 in the world to this. And look, I'm not looking 0:20:51.200 --> 0:20:54.000 at the price today. The stock will do what the 0:20:54.040 --> 0:20:58.000 stock does today. We're building value for long term shareholders 0:20:58.040 --> 0:21:01.359 who will be with us five years from now and longer, 0:21:01.400 --> 0:21:03.639 and so I'm focused on building a business that creates 0:21:03.720 --> 0:21:06.000 value for them. I have the same business today that 0:21:06.040 --> 0:21:09.240 I had yesterday, and the stock market doesn't really affect 0:21:09.359 --> 0:21:13.400 what we're building. So Henry talked to us about this process. 0:21:13.440 --> 0:21:16.080 I mean, and I think probably from a Bloomberg You're 0:21:16.080 --> 0:21:19.160 gonna hear more about the nuts and bolts than than anything, 0:21:19.200 --> 0:21:21.920 because you know, our audience are people. Are the folks 0:21:21.960 --> 0:21:25.240 who put these sorts of deals together. And I do wonder, 0:21:25.520 --> 0:21:28.679 you know, giving your experience and your expectations, what it 0:21:28.720 --> 0:21:31.880 was like to do a deal like this in a 0:21:31.920 --> 0:21:36.359 world that is still very much at home. Yeah, I 0:21:36.400 --> 0:21:39.000 mean we did our We did the road show completely 0:21:39.000 --> 0:21:42.840 from home. Um. We obviously we spent the last year 0:21:43.320 --> 0:21:46.560 meeting with investors across the country and getting them familiar 0:21:46.600 --> 0:21:48.639 with our story. I think it would probably be pretty 0:21:48.680 --> 0:21:52.639 difficult to do this and if we hadn't already done that, 0:21:53.160 --> 0:21:55.280 And so by the time we came up to running 0:21:55.280 --> 0:21:59.480 a virtual road show, uh, you know, the big contingent 0:21:59.520 --> 0:22:01.760 of the ssters we were talking to had met us, 0:22:02.200 --> 0:22:04.800 what would they had understood the story, they understood the 0:22:04.800 --> 0:22:08.280 management team, and so being able to do do this 0:22:08.440 --> 0:22:11.280 virtually was actually, you know, some blessing in a lot 0:22:11.280 --> 0:22:13.960 of ways. You know, ending a day after eight or 0:22:14.040 --> 0:22:16.600 nine or ten meetings and being able to walk out 0:22:16.600 --> 0:22:18.520 the door to my wife and my four year old 0:22:18.560 --> 0:22:22.080 daughter is a lot more interesting than finishing the day 0:22:22.320 --> 0:22:25.000 having dinner with a banker and then sleeping in a 0:22:25.080 --> 0:22:28.399 random hotel room in New Yorker San Francis breaking it 0:22:28.440 --> 0:22:31.480 down at the hotel bar at the Marriott in midtown, 0:22:31.680 --> 0:22:34.080 you know, trying to you know, make small talk with 0:22:34.119 --> 0:22:36.560 a banker. Yeah that your wife, Your wife and daughters 0:22:36.600 --> 0:22:38.720 say thank you very much. They're very appreciative that you 0:22:38.760 --> 0:22:42.359 said that. Um, listen, you know, as we kidded at 0:22:42.359 --> 0:22:44.440 the top, you're not zoom the one that we've all 0:22:44.440 --> 0:22:46.640 been zooming with our families or having, you know, after 0:22:46.680 --> 0:22:49.439 our cocktail parties are having lots of meetings more likely, 0:22:49.840 --> 0:22:52.040 UM with it this hour? What exactly do you guys 0:22:52.080 --> 0:22:55.320