Speaker 1: Hey there, everybody. Welcome into the Bedding Bros bet About podcast.
Speaker 1: I'm your host Dan Harris. With me, of course, is
Speaker 1: Matt Pearl. You can find us on Twitter at Dan
Speaker 1: Harris Adi and at Sports Talk Matt Matt. How are
Speaker 1: you as we roll into week eleven?
Speaker 2: How am I? I'm a little perturbed at what we
Speaker 2: what for us, what we've been doing. Yeah, and it
Speaker 2: just feels like we're constantly getting caught. Yeah, just every week.
Speaker 2: It's been a frustration where I feel, really, I thought
Speaker 2: we were gonna be great last week and then we
Speaker 2: just got a little bit of a you know, just
Speaker 2: one of those weeks and just it's been a tough year.
Speaker 2: I mean it's been you know, I look around and
Speaker 2: I talk to a lot of my friends who are
Speaker 2: in these contests as well, and it's been a tough year.
Speaker 2: So I'm okay, how about that?
Speaker 1: Yeah? How are you doing in your other two contests
Speaker 1: before I get to the Draftking.
Speaker 2: I'm three and two every week and all of them. Yeah,
Speaker 2: like just consistently. And it's not like we're picking the
Speaker 2: same games either, right, it's three and two, three and
Speaker 2: two the Bears. We would have been four and one
Speaker 2: last week with the Bears. I would have been four
Speaker 2: and one last week in my Westgate Super Contest if
Speaker 2: the Bears had covered the Bears with the right side.
Speaker 2: That third down play is giving me nightmares where they
Speaker 2: ran a screen pass with they kick a field goal
Speaker 2: and it's a three point win and we're good. We
Speaker 2: cover and they run a screen pass that made no sense.
Speaker 2: They lost four yards and they had to punt. So yeah,
Speaker 2: just betting on Nick Foles and betting on whether we
Speaker 2: Bill Laser or Matt Nagy. Just the Bears are now
Speaker 2: on my off list.
Speaker 1: Okay, well, you're not gonna get an argument for me.
Speaker 1: Watching that game was very, very frustrating. I agree, But
Speaker 1: let's recap our last week. But before we do, let's
Speaker 1: do our usual reminders of a couple of things. Number
Speaker 1: one discord. I don't know how many people are. I
Speaker 1: try to give an update every week, but it's just
Speaker 1: growing too fast. Bettingpros dot Com slash chatd is legitimately
Speaker 1: just a place where you can talk about betting. You
Speaker 1: can talk about it with us, you can talk about
Speaker 1: it with your fellow gamblers. You can talk about any
Speaker 1: topic really you want. In the sports gambling landscape. You've
Speaker 1: got different channels and you can win assigned aj Brown
Speaker 1: helmet that is going on through the end of November.
Speaker 1: If you just go into Betting Pros dot Com slash
Speaker 1: chat and go into discord, there is a place where
Speaker 1: you can enter the contest. It's pretty awesome. The other
Speaker 1: thing is our prop bet What did I said is
Speaker 1: prop bet cheat sheet? Right, that's what, Yes, I've nailed
Speaker 1: the name. Finally, Betting pros dot Com slash props again.
Speaker 1: That compares consensus projections to the prop bets that are
Speaker 1: available in the market, and it ranks them based on
Speaker 1: how different, essentially the projections are from the lines that
Speaker 1: the sports book sets. So it's really invaluable if you
Speaker 1: like prop betting, as you should. All Right, so we're
Speaker 1: gonna talk about this week. But as Matt said, we
Speaker 1: went three and two last week, which is basically what
Speaker 1: happens every week. We're essentially middle of the road in
Speaker 1: the contest. So unless we kind of really we go
Speaker 1: crazy here at the end, it's going to be kind
Speaker 1: of hard to make up the ground, but it is
Speaker 1: still possible. We're twenty six and twenty four fifty two percent.
Speaker 1: We hit them. The only game that we both came
Speaker 1: into the week really liking, which was the Bucks laying
Speaker 1: four and a half to the Panthers. That was not
Speaker 1: a sweat. We also hit in the Giants getting three
Speaker 1: and a half from the Eagles and the Rams laying
Speaker 1: one and a half to the Seahawks. We missed on
Speaker 1: the one that Matt liked, which was the Bengals getting
Speaker 1: six and a half from the Steelers. And as Matt said,
Speaker 1: the one really that I liked and I pushed a
Speaker 1: little bit, which was the Bears, and they were actually
Speaker 1: only getting two and a half from the Vikings in
Speaker 1: our contest, so we would have lost even if they
Speaker 1: made that fit go. But still, come on, do something.
Speaker 1: We got to get some wins. Also, as we'll talk about,
Speaker 1: we have to play two bye weeks here in the
Speaker 1: next several weeks. I think, what we've got six weeks
Speaker 1: left because it goes through Week sixteen, we've got to
Speaker 1: play two bye weeks, meaning we can't make picks for
Speaker 1: two of the weeks. That might be this week Matt
Speaker 1: and I sort of floated the fact that we didn't
Speaker 1: love the slate this week. We will still go through
Speaker 1: every game. We will give you whatever picks we are
Speaker 1: leaning towards. We may not play them though this week
Speaker 1: because we do have to take a bye week. And
Speaker 1: I don't know, Matt, you still thinking that the slate
Speaker 1: is ugly or in the last few hours have you
Speaker 1: come around and found some games that you really like?
Speaker 2: Still hate it ly? Still till absolutely entirely one hate it?
Speaker 2: But I mean there are three games I like. You
Speaker 2: can if you like them, maybe we play it if
Speaker 2: you want to get into it. I actually like tonight
Speaker 2: on Thursday Night. We haven't played a Thursday Night before,
Speaker 2: but I actually like the Seahawks tonight.
Speaker 1: Oh I thought you didn't like it at Wait when
Speaker 1: it is its.
Speaker 2: Three and a half. It's three and a half in
Speaker 2: our contest. I bet it at three, but I think
Speaker 2: that you know the way, I think it's the seven
Speaker 2: point win personally for the Seahawks tonight, but that's just
Speaker 2: my personal opinion on it. I bet it at three.
Speaker 2: It's down to two and a half. The pros and
Speaker 2: the Joe's are all over this back and forth. I mean,
Speaker 2: it's kind of a crazy game watching the money and
Speaker 2: the line movement as to where it's gone. But I
Speaker 2: like Seattle tonight to win. I think the primetime games
Speaker 2: it's where all the action is. Sunday, Thursday, Monday or
Speaker 2: all the are the best three games of the week.
Speaker 1: Okay, so this is the Seahawks are laying three and
Speaker 1: a half tonight. Man. Yeah, I liked it at three.
Speaker 1: I'd certainly like it two and a half. Yes, But
Speaker 1: you know what, let's talk. We've got we've got We're
Speaker 1: recording this at six pm on Eastern Standard time, so
Speaker 1: we've got two hours until the game goes. So we'll
Speaker 1: talk it through. Let's get to some of the other games,
Speaker 1: and then let's see maybe I don't know whatever, I'd
Speaker 1: be open to it. We could talk about I do
Speaker 1: think that the Seahawks are gonna win this game, so
Speaker 1: I'd be open to doing it. But let's start with
Speaker 1: some of the games here on Sunday or Monday, whatever
Speaker 1: you want. Let's see if we can agree on any
Speaker 1: of them. I have to warn you, Matt, We've been
Speaker 1: doing this now for eleven weeks. I think I generally
Speaker 1: know how you feel about certain picks. I will be
Speaker 1: shocked if you and I are able to come to agreement,
Speaker 1: because the few that I like, I'm always just like,
Speaker 1: oh God, Matt's gonna absolutely despise this pick, But go ahead,
Speaker 1: let's see what you've got. Start us off with your
Speaker 1: favorite play the weekend.
Speaker 2: So there are games that the line movement like, for instance,
Speaker 2: the line movement right now for Casey and the Raiders
Speaker 2: is eight eight and a half. That is sign it's
Speaker 2: six and a half in this contest. Yep, that is
Speaker 2: an insane number. So while I might be on the Chiefs,
Speaker 2: sorry on the on the Raiders betting, I think the
Speaker 2: six and a half off of a bye week under
Speaker 2: a seven point I don't know how you don't bet
Speaker 2: Kansas City.
Speaker 1: Here, Yeah, that's that's on my list.
Speaker 2: I mean, I just I don't know. I don't I
Speaker 2: think the Raiders can keep this game within ten points,
Speaker 2: so I'm gonna.
Speaker 1: Wait beat them. I beat him the first game.
Speaker 2: Well, this is off of a bye it's Andy Reid,
Speaker 2: it's a pissed off bunch of chief players coming in here,
Speaker 2: and the Raiders got COVID problems like crazy.
Speaker 1: Well I think that is that? Do you think that's
Speaker 1: what's accounting for the move Matt, The fact that their
Speaker 1: entire defense is basically COVID.
Speaker 2: I think that's a public move. But I think the
Speaker 2: pro movie is the fact that Andy Reid destroys AFC
Speaker 2: West opponents, and I think it's just been a ridiculous run.
Speaker 2: I think it's like twenty four and four or something
Speaker 2: against the AFC West. So I think that's why it's
Speaker 2: going in. The COVID problems come in and then but
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna wait till this thing gets to ten,
Speaker 2: and I'm gonna bet the Raiders. But for this contest,
Speaker 2: my number one when I wrote down at six and
Speaker 2: a half, the best number play is the Chiefs minus
Speaker 2: six and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna for now pencil that one into the
Speaker 1: extent we're going forward, because I definitely had that one
Speaker 1: on my list. You know there is I don't think
Speaker 1: you tell me if it matters in any way to you.
Speaker 1: But Clyde Edwards Hilaire has missed practice so far this
Speaker 1: week with a quote unquote illness and they have not
Speaker 1: elaborated on it. We you know, you know where your
Speaker 1: mind goes as soon as you hear illness, So he
Speaker 1: may he couldn't miss this game, in which case you're
Speaker 1: looking at Le'Veon bell Now they don't run the ball anyway,
Speaker 1: it doesn't really matter. They're getting Sammy Watkins back here.
Speaker 1: But does that matter to you at all if Edward
Speaker 1: Hilaire were to miss this game?
Speaker 2: No, I mean it's the defense. The problem for the
Speaker 2: Raiders is they get no pressure on the quarterback, so
Speaker 2: their secondary. I love Abram talking about a bunch of
Speaker 2: the podcast. I think, you know, getting Arnett back is big.
Speaker 2: His hand is now recovered, so we can play. I
Speaker 2: think they're good at covering, they're not great at getting
Speaker 2: after the quarterback. And I just think they don't have
Speaker 2: a ton of team speed in the secondary. Their linebackers
Speaker 2: are average at best. I think it's a monster Kelsey game,
Speaker 2: and I think it's an angry bunch of Chief players
Speaker 2: coming in that want to prove a point. So it's
Speaker 2: a bad spot for the Raiders to be in. I
Speaker 2: don't think that victory lap bust controversy is actually a thing,
Speaker 2: but I do think there is a level of like,
Speaker 2: this is our division. You guys are a year or
Speaker 2: two early, and yeah, you caught us at home, we'll
Speaker 2: come with our pants down, but where we're ready to
Speaker 2: go here and we're coming after you. So again, I
Speaker 2: think the Raiders have the weapons to keep it close
Speaker 2: in a high scoring game. I love the over in
Speaker 2: this game, but I think you're going to wind up
Speaker 2: with a seven point victory for the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: Yeah, under a touchdown. It's really hard not to take
Speaker 1: this game. That's really what it is. As you said,
Speaker 1: the line's been moving. The consensus line that I'm looking
Speaker 1: at right now is eight.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised if it goes higher. At seventy
Speaker 1: one percent are still on the Chiefs in our bed analyzer.
Speaker 1: So yeah. I mean, if there were a game that
Speaker 1: I was going to pick that was on my list
Speaker 1: that I think I thought you might like because of
Speaker 1: the fact that it's under touchdown, it would be this one.
Speaker 1: So again, if we do play this week, let's pencil
Speaker 1: that in. But if you somehow find it anywhere at
Speaker 1: six and a half, we'll certainly take that. Now, Matt,
Speaker 1: what is your dividing line between when you think it
Speaker 1: goes to the point where you would feel comfortable to Raiders?
Speaker 1: Is it ten? Is that the line?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 1: Yeah? And other than that, if it's over a touchdown,
Speaker 1: are you just staying away in between let's say seven?
Speaker 2: Yeah, Because I think the difference between eight and ten.
Speaker 2: The books go very quickly, so you'll see line movements.
Speaker 2: The books have no problem going from seven and a
Speaker 2: half to eight and then from eight and a half
Speaker 2: to ten, so they'll move it fast, and so getting
Speaker 2: off the key numbers of seven and eight are always
Speaker 2: the most difficult. Going below sevens even more difficult. So
Speaker 2: and the most difficult is three to three and a half.
Speaker 2: That's the most difficult line movement for the books. So
Speaker 2: I think if it gets to eight and a half,
Speaker 2: it'll go ten. It'll just they'll just keep on moving
Speaker 2: it up and they won't worry about it. Then look
Speaker 2: at the ten and then they'll stop because then by
Speaker 2: because it gets to ten and a half, the pros
Speaker 2: will come in on the raiders and buy it back.
Speaker 2: So ten's my number.
Speaker 1: Got it okay? So this ends the portion of the
Speaker 1: show where Dan and Matt agree on anything, is what I.
Speaker 2: Think, because we'll see hold on all right.
Speaker 1: Because the games I'm taking, I just can hear you
Speaker 1: doing the thing that you go. You have the whole
Speaker 1: slate available to you.
Speaker 2: Head one game in my head that I think that
Speaker 2: you're gonna do, and I want to my reaction will
Speaker 2: only be off of one game, and I want to
Speaker 2: see if you actually take it.
Speaker 1: I bet you I'll take it. It's probably not going
Speaker 1: to be this game because this game is backing an
Speaker 1: ugly team, but it's kind of the classic by Low
Speaker 1: in a situation where this team usually comes up big
Speaker 1: no matter how bad they look. It's the Eagles getting
Speaker 1: three and a half from the Browns. Now they're in Cleveland.
Speaker 1: Look the Eagles, I think the match.
Speaker 2: Up the number two is on the other side.
Speaker 1: Oh, you like the Browns. All right, well, let's talk
Speaker 1: this through. And I will say immediately what I do
Speaker 1: when we make a pick is I go to the
Speaker 1: bed analyzer and I look at which side people are.
Speaker 1: Now that the consensus spread is three and Wold fel
Speaker 1: a litle diferently about this game of three, but it's
Speaker 1: legitimately fifty percent. Fifty percent on the Eagles, fifty percent
Speaker 1: are on the Browns. So here's here's my line of thinking.
Speaker 1: Number one. Historically speaking, I just think this is when
Speaker 1: you back the Eagles when they look absolutely like maybe
Speaker 1: the worst team in football, and then you know they
Speaker 1: like that game against the forty nine ers Matt where
Speaker 1: we talked ourselves into them getting seven and a half,
Speaker 1: and I realized that maybe that game was a little
Speaker 1: bit more on the forty nine ers than it was
Speaker 1: necessarily on the Eagles. But you look at a game
Speaker 1: where they look just dead in the water, which they did,
Speaker 1: and you just say, Okay, this is probably a spot
Speaker 1: where they're gonna bounce back. Miles centers looked very good
Speaker 1: in the game against the Giants. I think he's going
Speaker 1: to look very good here. They get a lot of pressure.
Speaker 1: That's the one thing that the Eagles defense really does.
Speaker 1: They get pressure, they're able to stop the run. I
Speaker 1: guess the two things that they do. They're able to
Speaker 1: stop the run. That's what Cleveland absolutely needs. And they
Speaker 1: get a lot of pressure. And you know that's where
Speaker 1: Baker kind of struggles. He doesn't like to get pressure,
Speaker 1: and that I think the Browns defense is overrated. I
Speaker 1: think they've got you know, they've had the two games
Speaker 1: in the wind, They've had a pretty easy schedule. So
Speaker 1: this is really more of a I bet on the
Speaker 1: Eagles just when you think they're done. Now, I've caught
Speaker 1: this already at three and a half. At three, maybe not.
Speaker 1: I think they could win it out right, But I
Speaker 1: do like it when I'm getting a hook, So go
Speaker 1: ahead and give your side because you like the Browns obviously.
Speaker 2: Well, the weather forecast is gonna be not as windy
Speaker 2: as the previous two, but it's not gonna be nice.
Speaker 1: It looks like rain, right, it's.
Speaker 2: Gonna be cold. It's gonna be rainy. Ye, it's gonna
Speaker 2: be breezy. Not not an hour maybe as a time
Speaker 2: of tape it's Thursday, I thinks can switch in, but yes,
Speaker 2: the forecast is not the thirty five mile par our
Speaker 2: sustained wins that we saw last week for them, but
Speaker 2: it's still weather. Eagles are awful, Wentz is awful.
Speaker 1: Yep.
Speaker 2: This is who the Browns beat. The Browns beat bad teams.
Speaker 2: They can't beat anybody good. But if you look at
Speaker 2: PFF Pro Football Focus, they have the I think of
Speaker 2: the third ranked offense in the NFL right now. So
Speaker 2: I mean they could score and they could put the
Speaker 2: points up on anybody. And that's even with Odell or
Speaker 2: without Odell, they can put points up on the board.
Speaker 2: Hooper with the tight end. I just think this is
Speaker 2: a bad team that you know, the Browns beat bad teams,
Speaker 2: and the Eagles are a really really bad team. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I'm at home laying. I think they win the game
Speaker 2: by seven.
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, so we're gonna stay off it because
Speaker 1: I'm not. I mean, sometimes there are times where I
Speaker 1: come in on one side and you talk me into
Speaker 1: it and I do get your points completely about this
Speaker 1: to me, again, this is a spot where you're like,
Speaker 1: the Eagles might be the worst team in football, and
Speaker 1: then they come up and they come up big, and
Speaker 1: I really think that this is a game again. I
Speaker 1: think the Browns are really I mean, they're just I
Speaker 1: think they're overrated. Man. Without Odell Beckham, I think that
Speaker 1: you know, Chubb is great, Kareem Hunt is great. But
Speaker 1: I think that the Eagles are gonna understand, Okay, let's
Speaker 1: make Odell Beckham Junior beat us if they can. And
Speaker 1: they're pretty decent against the run, and I'm just not
Speaker 1: confident without Odell Beckham Junior that he's gonna be able
Speaker 1: to do that throwing to Jarvis Landry and Roshard Higgins
Speaker 1: and Austin Hooper without those guys. So for me, I
Speaker 1: think this is sort of the classic. All Right, the
Speaker 1: Eagles are left for dead. Wait a minute, Why did
Speaker 1: they just win the game by ten points? I don't understand.
Speaker 1: So all right, let's go to your next That was
Speaker 1: your number two.
Speaker 2: Under too, Let's get your one and told you I
Speaker 2: had three.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm ready.
Speaker 2: Casey won Cleveland two, and I think the Ravens are
Speaker 2: a mess. I got the Titans here. I think the
Speaker 2: Titans win this game outright. I think they're the better offense.
Speaker 2: I think they're the better defense. I think there's some
Speaker 2: real problems right now with Lamar Jackson trying to move
Speaker 2: the football. And you can make the excuse about the
Speaker 2: rain and the wind and whatever you want to say
Speaker 2: about why the Patriots beat the Ravens, but they got
Speaker 2: problems in Baltimore. People had them. Colin Cowhard had them
Speaker 2: going sixteen and oh, okay sixteen and oh this year,
Speaker 2: there's some real problems in Baltimore. I like the Titans.
Speaker 2: Whatever point tumber what is it? Six and a half?
Speaker 1: Six in six and a half?
Speaker 2: Six and a half? Love it? Titans plus six and
Speaker 2: a half?
Speaker 1: Yep, this I'm on this as well. And what's funny
Speaker 1: is that this wasn't my number one, but I thought
Speaker 1: about leading with it because I was like, this could
Speaker 1: this seems like a game that Matt might like. Yeah,
Speaker 1: And I loved the Ravens. I was willing to back
Speaker 1: them all the time. And again I kind of talked
Speaker 1: this into and you heard from some other people into
Speaker 1: backing them against the Colts. But they didn't look good
Speaker 1: in that game. Really, you know, they wound up winning it,
Speaker 1: and they really really did not look good. And kudos
Speaker 1: to you, by the way, that was my bad. The
Speaker 1: Patriots were your last one, but one of the picks
Speaker 1: that you said you were willing to go with last
Speaker 1: week against the Ravens, and I thought you were nuts,
Speaker 1: and that was absolutely the right side. So kudos to you.
Speaker 1: I mean, not only Matt, are they a mess? But
Speaker 1: the big thing right like, they're good against the run,
Speaker 1: and you're like, well, the Titans really need to establish
Speaker 1: Eric Henry. No Brandon Williams, and he's not gonna play
Speaker 1: in this game. He's mispracticed. He is the guy who
Speaker 1: stops the run. He was the guy last year when
Speaker 1: he was out. You saw how they were against the run.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be the same thing this year. Probably. No
Speaker 1: kalay Is cambell here, no Stanley on the line, Nick Boyle,
Speaker 1: is kind of actually a sneaky big loss that they've
Speaker 1: got here going on. So I'm in total agree with
Speaker 1: you on this one. Actually, this is week two of
Speaker 1: your picks right now are two games that were not
Speaker 1: just I'm okay with it actually on my list. So
Speaker 1: if we go, we'll go with the Titans plus six
Speaker 1: and a half against the Ravens. Very good. All right,
Speaker 1: so you're done now right. You don't have any I.
Speaker 2: Have two leans. Those are my yeses. I've got two
Speaker 2: others that are on my list, and if you say
Speaker 2: you want it, I'm comfortable with it.
Speaker 1: Okay, they I'm not going to list those, I can
Speaker 1: almost promise you because these are ugly. So just get
Speaker 1: ready for how ugly this is about to get. How
Speaker 1: ugly do you think it is to take the Jaguars
Speaker 1: getting ten and a half from the Steelers?
Speaker 2: I like it? What? Yeah? I like it?
Speaker 1: I love it? Okay, yeah, I mean.
Speaker 2: This is not on my list, but I like it
Speaker 2: because this is my thinking.
Speaker 1: Oh go ahead, no, no, no, you go ahead out then
Speaker 1: I'll just go ahead.
Speaker 2: Historically speaking, over the last four years, YEP teams with
Speaker 2: one loss taking on a team that's undefeated. They are
Speaker 2: three and one against the spread. I just think that
Speaker 2: this is a classic. Pittsburgh needs to lose a game,
Speaker 2: okay before the playoffs. If you're a Steeler fan, this
Speaker 2: is the game you can lose. You can lose this
Speaker 2: game out of nowhere. You get beat, it means nothing.
Speaker 2: You have a three game lead in the division. You
Speaker 2: just come off of a big win over the Ravens
Speaker 2: a couple weeks ago. This game, this is trap city
Speaker 2: for Pittsburgh. Here that this is a one win team,
Speaker 2: wounded animal. If you will back into a corner at home.
Speaker 2: I'm totally comfortable with It's not one of my picks,
Speaker 2: but I'm comfortable with Jacksimo.
Speaker 1: This is hilarious for it because I thought you were
Speaker 1: gonna be like, no way, yeah, ten and a half
Speaker 1: at this point. By the way, I did forget on
Speaker 1: the Titans and the Ravens. The spread is moving. By
Speaker 1: the way, it's not only minus five and seventy percent
Speaker 1: are on the Titans. So just to be clear on
Speaker 1: that one. Yeah, with this one, I mean, this is
Speaker 1: like a mike and I wanted to fade. I forget
Speaker 1: what it was, but I maybe it was against the Ravens.
Speaker 1: But it was something where I wanted to fade Tomlin
Speaker 1: because you know, the Steelers come in and that Cowboys game.
Speaker 1: That Cowboys game is what Mike Tomlin and the Steelers
Speaker 1: really are. Mike Tomlin's a very very good coach. I'm
Speaker 1: not saying anything away from him, but he does not
Speaker 1: get the team up to play in these games where
Speaker 1: they are massive favorite. It's especially when they're not in division, right,
Speaker 1: like this is just and you look at that Cowboys game.
Speaker 1: They were like inches away from suddenly being like, oh
Speaker 1: my god, you just lost to the Cowboys. And don't
Speaker 1: forget next week is Thanksgiving. They play the Ravens on Thanksgiving, right,
Speaker 1: so they've got to be looking ahead right in this game.
Speaker 1: This game cannot mean anything to them. No, I'm not wrong, right,
Speaker 1: they play the Ravens on thanks Game, Yes, so they've
Speaker 1: got to be looking ahead at that point to what
Speaker 1: this are. I'm not saying the Jaguars are gonna win.
Speaker 1: I'm just saying ten and a half. You're getting more
Speaker 1: than the ten. Yeah, I'll take that. Actually, I want
Speaker 1: to look at where the bed analyzer has that one,
Speaker 1: because it's now this is actually it leans towards Jacksonville,
Speaker 1: but not overwhelmingly, so just fifty three percent. But yeah,
Speaker 1: this is a game I feel I don't know, man,
Speaker 1: I feel pretty comfortable with this one. So Okay, we've
Speaker 1: got we've got three that we're talking about. Let's go
Speaker 1: to your next one. That you don't absolutely your lean
Speaker 1: that you don't despise Colts.
Speaker 2: I've been so wrong on the Colts this year. You've
Speaker 2: liked the Colts a lot this year? Yeah, what about
Speaker 2: what about Indie this week?
Speaker 1: So the spread is two and a half, laying two
Speaker 1: and a half to the Packers.
Speaker 2: Yep.
Speaker 1: I don't hate it. I don't hate it. I don't
Speaker 1: know that I don't have a good lean on it.
Speaker 1: I will say that Devontae Adams has missed practice so
Speaker 1: far this week with an angle injury. Now they're getting
Speaker 1: bizarred back, but their their whole persona is different if
Speaker 1: they don't have DeVante Adams.
Speaker 2: Yep.
Speaker 1: And the Colts are off a mini bi I'm a
Speaker 1: little worried that they might be flying high after that.
Speaker 2: But so here's so, here's here's what I've been talking
Speaker 2: to some people about. And I don't know how you
Speaker 2: biden into conspiracy theories, But have you seen the latest
Speaker 2: one with what's going on here? Why the Colts supposedly
Speaker 2: knew what the Titans were going to be and defensively.
Speaker 1: Like crazy, I actually have not.
Speaker 2: There's there's a conspiracy theory out there that the Colts
Speaker 2: have been listening to the calls of the defenses that
Speaker 2: they're playing and they're going back into the game film
Speaker 2: because there's no crowd, so the radio, the radio call
Speaker 2: and the TV call, you can hear the audibles being
Speaker 2: yelled out by the defenses. Supposedly, Supposedly, there's been some
Speaker 2: interesting work going on with the Colts and they know
Speaker 2: what the defensive audibles are and you're hearing Philip rivers
Speaker 2: switch into different plays. They're gonna put them in the
Speaker 2: better play based upon what the defense has switched into.
Speaker 1: But you feel like that that's not like I mean,
Speaker 1: I get.
Speaker 2: It, No, no, no, it's a trick of a veteran who
Speaker 2: knows what to get. That's why they've been moving the
Speaker 2: ball so well on some of these good defenses.
Speaker 1: But I would think that, like, I mean, that's you
Speaker 1: know that. When you first said I was like wow,
Speaker 1: And I was like, well, wait, like that seems pretty
Speaker 1: like why wouldn't every team do that like that? That's
Speaker 1: everybody know. You can hear everything now, yep in these games,
Speaker 1: like why would that be something that It's sort of like, Wow,
Speaker 1: the Colts stumbled upon this amazing way, Like I would
Speaker 1: think the teams are changing their audibles every week. I
Speaker 1: don't hate it. I just think the Colts are are
Speaker 1: a good I mean, River did look done for a while.
Speaker 1: He looks a little better now. I mean I think
Speaker 1: that they're you know, I think Michael Pittman Junior being
Speaker 1: back is definitely helpful, getting him like a real playmarker
Speaker 1: in that offense. So especially with Adams being questionable, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna put that one in the in the maybe. I
Speaker 1: mean I lean that side, so I'll definitely put that
Speaker 1: one in the maybe. Okay, this is going better than
Speaker 1: I thought here that I thought we would get all
Speaker 1: right this one. I'd actually really like to know your
Speaker 1: thoughts on because you know, the Vikings looked really good.
Speaker 1: They've played better, but I kind of like the Cowboys
Speaker 1: getting more than the touchdown at seven and a half
Speaker 1: against the Vikings, and I'll lay my case on and
Speaker 1: then you could say I hate it or I lean
Speaker 1: that way. That's fine, Dalton should start here. I don't
Speaker 1: really know if that matters whether or not. As long
Speaker 1: as it's not Ben Denucci, it's fine. It doesn't really
Speaker 1: matter which one it is. Their line is getting healthier
Speaker 1: at this point. The Vikings cornerbacks, as we know, are abysmal,
Speaker 1: and just the fact that you had Nick Foles who
Speaker 1: couldn't do anything, that's really why you weren't able to
Speaker 1: necessarily exploit them. The defense played pretty well against the Steelers,
Speaker 1: as much as the Steelers kind of like meled it
Speaker 1: in a little bit like the Cowboys defense played a
Speaker 1: little better.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: They do have some injuries back there, but they're coming
Speaker 1: off a bye. If Zeke's gonna be a little healthier.
Speaker 1: The Vikings are on a short week. This seems like
Speaker 1: sort of a little bit of a trap game here
Speaker 1: for the Vikings, as they're flying high getting more than
Speaker 1: a touchdown. I kind of like the Cowboys to keep
Speaker 1: this game close.
Speaker 2: Yeah, because then the other contest it's seven, So we
Speaker 2: got a little better number there at seven and a half,
Speaker 2: which I like on the hook perspective, And frankly, look,
Speaker 2: I didn't think the Vikings played that well and they
Speaker 2: won the game. So like, okay, they won, Kirk Cousins
Speaker 2: gets to run around to be like I won a
Speaker 2: game on Monday Night football. Now look at me. I'm
Speaker 2: no longer oh to nine. I can't stand Kirk Cousins.
Speaker 2: So I know I remember, I have no problem fading
Speaker 2: him here. I have no issue if you want to
Speaker 2: stand on a table and you feel strongly, I don't
Speaker 2: have a strong lean one way or the other.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: But if I'm gonna fade Kirk Cousins and I get
Speaker 2: more than a touchdown, okay.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I I kind of like this one,
Speaker 1: I'll you know. And again it's at seven right now,
Speaker 1: fifty seven percent of experts in our bed analyzer are
Speaker 1: on Dallas. I think, coming off a bye, I think
Speaker 1: this is a game where they're going to come out
Speaker 1: and play well.
Speaker 2: And again, well, the number is Mike McCarthy is ten
Speaker 2: and two against the spread up of a bye in
Speaker 2: his career.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was gonna get to McCarthy in the second.
Speaker 1: That's absolutely right. The other thing is, remember Dalvin Cook,
Speaker 1: as amazing as he is. I was talking about it
Speaker 1: on our DFS show today. What do you have thirty
Speaker 1: two to thirty four touches in this game on a
Speaker 1: short week, Like there's just so much the guy can do.
Speaker 1: And their receivers are very I mean, Jefferson is great,
Speaker 1: Adam Feelin is very very good. And again the Cowboys
Speaker 1: are a little injured in their secondary, but I just
Speaker 1: I think that they're going to be able to move.
Speaker 1: I don't think Dalton was nearly as bad as he
Speaker 1: looked in that first game. We've seen Dalton be a
Speaker 1: competent NFL quarterback. And again, the Vikings defense is really
Speaker 1: nothing to write home about it. If you give me
Speaker 1: arrested zeke, you give me the good line, you give
Speaker 1: me competent quarterback play, at least with the receivers, I
Speaker 1: think they'll keep it within a touchdo so. I do
Speaker 1: kind of like this game. This one would be one
Speaker 1: that I would kind of push to get in if
Speaker 1: we were sort of like, well we need one more.
Speaker 1: I think this one, you know, comes in at fourth
Speaker 1: on my list, behind the one that we're not going
Speaker 1: to go with with the Eagles. But I like the
Speaker 1: Titans as well as the Chiefs. All right, so do
Speaker 1: you have another lean here that you were looking at?
Speaker 2: The only other game I was looking at, or the
Speaker 2: Patriots laying two and a half or two.
Speaker 1: I think it's two and a half in the contest.
Speaker 1: It's two and a half in the contest. The consensus
Speaker 1: line right now is two though.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Patriots on the road against the Texans laying too,
Speaker 2: And that's the only other one that I would lean
Speaker 2: to because I do think that this is the game
Speaker 2: where if the year is going to turn around for
Speaker 2: the Patriots, this is it. Yeah, So if they're going
Speaker 2: to be a contender, if they're going to be in
Speaker 2: the conversation point, Look, Shaun Watson's very dangerous. I'm not
Speaker 2: going to debate that. But Damien Harris is going to
Speaker 2: have a monster u DFS in prop players, My favorite
Speaker 2: prop bit of the week is Damien Harris to run
Speaker 2: crazy on this Texans defense.
Speaker 1: Is that an actual prop bet that they that they list.
Speaker 1: Will Damien Harris run crazy?
Speaker 2: Yes, over over over over, touches, over carries, over yardage,
Speaker 2: touchdown props. I will be on the daily juice. Damien
Speaker 2: Harris is going to be where I'm gonna ride this
Speaker 2: guy like crazy. So I think he has a monster game.
Speaker 2: I think they play keep away they don't let Watson
Speaker 2: go deep and beat them. Although they will have their
Speaker 2: secondary back, which is good. Gilmore should play and I
Speaker 2: just think the Patriots.
Speaker 1: Is Gilmore gonna play in this game, by the way
Speaker 1: I think he's.
Speaker 2: Going to do. I think that's why I think they
Speaker 2: didn't play him last week, because I think that they
Speaker 2: knew they didn't need him because of the fact that
Speaker 2: Ravens can't pass. They need him in this game. To
Speaker 2: shop is to stop Watson. Yeah, so put him on
Speaker 2: fuller and see what happens. But I am I think
Speaker 2: the Patriots won the game by three.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm inclined to agree with this one. Matt. I'm
Speaker 1: on that side. I mean, I lean that way. It
Speaker 1: wasn't one of my picks, but I did. I always
Speaker 1: have like, okay, if Matt comes in, which side of
Speaker 1: my own if I say something. I was on that side,
Speaker 1: And I've kind of been more and more talking myself
Speaker 1: into this game as we got there. I was, you know,
Speaker 1: I'm not sure that it matters, you know, because I
Speaker 1: know was two and a half, and it was two
Speaker 1: and a half when I earlier locked in my pick,
Speaker 1: which was the Patriots already and now it's moved to
Speaker 1: a little bit. Sixty two percent of experts in our
Speaker 1: bed analyzer are on the Patriots. So yeah, I'm thinking.
Speaker 2: There's one game. I can't believe you hadn't brought up yet.
Speaker 2: I thought for sure you.
Speaker 1: Were done, that we've done it. Wait, I don't have
Speaker 1: which did you think I was giving?
Speaker 2: I thought you'd be on the Falcons.
Speaker 1: Oh okay, so that that is fair. The Falcons were
Speaker 1: like my runner up pick of the ones that I
Speaker 1: actually felt I would be totally fine if you were like,
Speaker 1: I want to take the Falcons against the Saints with
Speaker 1: Jameis Winston. I just feel like, you know, first of all,
Speaker 1: Winston just historically he's not great as a favorite, great
Speaker 1: as underdog because he's crazy and he just is going
Speaker 1: to throw the ball until they would catch up. The Falcons,
Speaker 1: off of by their defense, has been playing better. I
Speaker 1: don't hate the Falcons getting four and a half, but
Speaker 1: it's not one of my you know, I wouldn't push
Speaker 1: for it over any of.
Speaker 2: The Pro Football Focus Play the week is the first
Speaker 2: it's plus five.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's four and a half for us.
Speaker 2: I don't really I keep on, but my argument to
Speaker 2: them was is it Winston you're fading or Taysom Hill? Yeah,
Speaker 2: because who's playing quarterback? But way do we know who's
Speaker 2: playing quarterback for them?
Speaker 1: Do we?
Speaker 2: Are we positive it's Jamis? Because if here Jamis fine,
Speaker 2: but they've got another option at quarterback.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but you know, if they were gonna do this,
Speaker 1: if they were gonna go to Taysom Hill, then they
Speaker 1: just why would they bring in Winston? Like the same
Speaker 1: thing with Bridgewater. You have Taysom Hill on your roster,
Speaker 1: if you're willing to turn it over to him, why
Speaker 1: are you bringing in an actual NFL.
Speaker 2: And why are they paying him what they're paying.
Speaker 1: Him because they think he's the future.
Speaker 2: I guess, well, now is your future because your quarterback's
Speaker 2: got a punctured lung.
Speaker 1: I get it. But that's why that the same thing
Speaker 1: last year with Bridgewater. I mean, what you know, I
Speaker 1: get it? Well, I think for me and again, this
Speaker 1: consensus spread is four and sixty three percent are still
Speaker 1: on Atlanta. That definitely was a game that I was like, Okay,
Speaker 1: maybe i'll talk about this. Frankly, I kind of thought
Speaker 1: there's no way you would go for it, so I.
Speaker 2: Want to go for it. I mean, I just figured you.
Speaker 2: I guess that was gonna be young because I don't.
Speaker 2: I have no real harsh feeling on your way. I
Speaker 2: just don't. I just think that it's a dangerous pick
Speaker 2: because of the Tasom Hill angle. I just I don't
Speaker 2: know who the quarterback is. If you told me that
Speaker 2: Tasom Hill was hurt and it was all Jamos, then
Speaker 2: I'd probably subscribe to it and go fine, ride the Falcons. Yeah,
Speaker 2: but it's not. I mean, they have a plan B
Speaker 2: that if Winston comes out and search Thorn picks, they
Speaker 2: got a guy who can play the quarterback spot at
Speaker 2: least competently. It scares me to go ahead. And it's
Speaker 2: a big rivalry game. I mean, these two teams hate
Speaker 2: each other.
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, I just I don't know, man, I like
Speaker 1: the Saints. I hate betting against them.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: I get it's not Drew Brees, but yeah, I don't.
Speaker 1: I don't really have a great feeling. I definitely lean
Speaker 1: the Falcons. And if I'm gonna go one way, it
Speaker 1: is with the Falcons. If you came in here and
Speaker 1: said I want the Saints, I'd say, no, I'm off
Speaker 1: that game. But you know, I do think it's gonna
Speaker 1: be Jamis, so to be fair, though, I think they're
Speaker 1: gonna mix in Hill a lot more than they would
Speaker 1: with Breeze. But I think the primary quarterback is gonna
Speaker 1: be Winston. But we'll put that one to the side.
Speaker 1: I'll recap it at the end when we are finalizing
Speaker 1: our five picks if we don't decide to use the
Speaker 1: bye week. Although tagging it through, I don't hate this
Speaker 1: week quite as much as I did before we got
Speaker 1: into it. But we can get through it. Let's go
Speaker 1: through the remaining games that we've gotten again. I have
Speaker 1: just written them down randomly. Don't read anything into if
Speaker 1: I say the favorite or whatever. First, the Bucks laying
Speaker 1: three and a half to the Rams in Tampa. This
Speaker 1: is Monday Night football, I believe, right.
Speaker 2: Yep, correct?
Speaker 1: How do you feel so at first?
Speaker 2: Guess it's gonna be a tough game for Tom Brady. Okay,
Speaker 2: so this is the Rams. Do what you have to
Speaker 2: do to beat Tampa. They're gonna rush and blitz the
Speaker 2: holy heck out of Brady and make him very uncomfortable.
Speaker 2: They're gonna make him move off of his spot. So
Speaker 2: on the other side, I don't think Tampa moves the
Speaker 2: ball much and scores much. So my question is what
Speaker 2: does Jared Goff do on the road against that Tampa defense.
Speaker 2: I don't like this Tampa defense at all. I gotta
Speaker 2: ride the Tampa defense. I would ride. I would take
Speaker 2: the three and a half points here and take the Rams.
Speaker 1: Yeah. If I'm forced to choose a side, it would
Speaker 1: be with the Rams. I mean, whitworth being down scares
Speaker 1: me because you know what GoF does under pressure. We
Speaker 1: have seen it a million times. I I feel like
Speaker 1: I could talk myself into either side of this game
Speaker 1: if I really had to, Like, I don't.
Speaker 2: Have it's a great game. It's a big game.
Speaker 1: Both it's a great game. Yes, that's true. It's a
Speaker 1: great game. I don't have a great lean on it,
Speaker 1: So it would be one that you know, you could
Speaker 1: talk me into it if you were like Dan, I
Speaker 1: feel great about the Rams, but I don't like it
Speaker 1: more than our picks. But yeah, I mean I guess
Speaker 1: that I would probably lean towards the Rams. But it's
Speaker 1: just kind of an ugly game. I don't really want it.
Speaker 1: How about the Bengals getting one and a half from
Speaker 1: Washington in Washington?
Speaker 2: I mean, if I had to go with it. I
Speaker 2: would take the Bengals. Yeah, but I mean, this is
Speaker 2: just this game and the Lions and the Panthers game.
Speaker 2: I'm not even gonna watch these games. They're so bad.
Speaker 2: It's just a horrific football games.
Speaker 1: I agree. I don't want any part of this. And
Speaker 1: by the way, this is another illness to Higgins miss
Speaker 1: practice with an illness. I have no idea if it's
Speaker 1: just an illness. A lot of times they like to specify,
Speaker 1: like Duke Johnson this week, this is a non COVID
Speaker 1: related illness. They have not specified that with Higgins. They
Speaker 1: have not specified that with Clyde Edwards Dulaire. So I'm
Speaker 1: not I don't know what's gonna happen. But yeah, this
Speaker 1: is a game where like I mean, I'll watch because
Speaker 1: I have to watch every game because I have to
Speaker 1: do a recap show for fantasy purposes. But I would
Speaker 1: not watch this game or lay any money on this game.
Speaker 1: I would just stay away from it. And again, same
Speaker 1: thing with the lines. Now I will say that the
Speaker 1: Lion's getting one and a half from the Panthers. There
Speaker 1: are so many variables in this stupid game. You've got
Speaker 1: Deonder Swift, who essentially has been declared out. Now, I mean,
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's he's unlikely to play with
Speaker 1: the concussion, that just game to light. Matthew Stafford is
Speaker 1: questionable with the thumb. Kenny Galladay was at practice yesterday,
Speaker 1: then there was a report he was at practice, and
Speaker 1: he wasn't that practice today, so nobody really knows. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewater is likely to sit just I I mean,
Speaker 1: can we just skip this game because nobody should be
Speaker 1: betting on this game?
Speaker 2: Right yep?
Speaker 1: Okay, very good. How about the Dolphins length three and
Speaker 1: a half to the Broncos in Denver?
Speaker 2: This is hard. I mean, this is I hate Drew Locke.
Speaker 2: Their offense looked so bad on the road against the Patriot,
Speaker 2: mean against the Raiders last week with four interceptions he
Speaker 2: threw or three interceptions.
Speaker 1: It was playing this game by the right.
Speaker 2: And so that's why I was like, well, ripping my play,
Speaker 2: look out for ripping. Okay, I mean is there that
Speaker 2: big of a difference between the ripping and Locke? I
Speaker 2: don't know. The quarterback play has been so bad. John
Speaker 2: Elway needs to stop drafting quarterbacks and let somebody else
Speaker 2: do it, because they can't pick quarterbacks saved life. It's embarrassing.
Speaker 2: It's the Broncos at home at altitude. I don't like Tua.
Speaker 2: Like you guys know. Their numbers are still bad offensively,
Speaker 2: but their defense is scoring.
Speaker 1: Especially offensively with Tua like, they have not played as
Speaker 1: well offensively, and.
Speaker 2: That was predictable. We knew. I said it they at
Speaker 2: the switch. I said, this is stupid. This is a
Speaker 2: bad move for their offense. But they're not doing it
Speaker 2: for their offense. They're doing it because I want to
Speaker 2: sell jerseys and may people think that they're going to
Speaker 2: be there. If I had to bet, I would take
Speaker 2: the home dog at three and a half. But is
Speaker 2: that what it is? It is three and a half, right,
Speaker 2: three and a half correct. I would take the three
Speaker 2: and a half for the hook, But I don't have
Speaker 2: a great feel because the Dolphins are the better team.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I lean towards the Dolphins if I had to
Speaker 1: go somewhere, just because I you know, the Broncos are awful, man,
Speaker 1: and that The one thing I will say is the
Speaker 1: Dolphins defense is legitimate like that. I mean, Brian Floores fantastic,
Speaker 1: like maybe Coach of the Year considering what he has
Speaker 1: done with that team right now. And the Broncos are
Speaker 1: just a mess. Man Like, they're a mess, and I
Speaker 1: don't really care if it's ripping or lock. By the way,
Speaker 1: I don't consider that a huge downgrade at this point
Speaker 1: in their careers. But this is what's funny to me, Matt.
Speaker 1: That is the most one sided game in our bet analyzer,
Speaker 1: and it's on the Dolphins at thine and a half
Speaker 1: eighty three percent, and that that is the side that
Speaker 1: I'm on. But I don't feel good. I as a
Speaker 1: general rule, I don't love betting against the Broncos.
Speaker 2: It's out in two. It's a warm weather team in
Speaker 2: cold weather conditions, yep. And all they do is run
Speaker 2: the football. So it's like if Lindsey can get free,
Speaker 2: it's I mean, the Dolphins have been living off of
Speaker 2: their special teams in defensive points. At some point that
Speaker 2: runs out, yep. So I don't like the Broncos defense.
Speaker 2: The Broncos give up what forty five points to the Raiders,
Speaker 2: whatever it was. I mean, it's a bad football team.
Speaker 2: But there's a lot of exterior conditions there outside of
Speaker 2: the Broncos players with altitude and weather and you know,
Speaker 2: cold and the Dolphins don't like playing. Look at their
Speaker 2: record in New England in December. Okay, it's not great,
Speaker 2: So it's tough to back the Dolphins there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think every point that you've made about why
Speaker 1: it is tough to back the Dolphins is legitimate. And
Speaker 1: I just can't back the Broncos under any circumstances, Like
Speaker 1: I just couldn't final game unless I missed one. The
Speaker 1: Charge laying eight and a half to the Jets in
Speaker 1: Los Angeles.
Speaker 2: Well, if it wasn't for that stupid haircut, I would
Speaker 2: say I'd go with the Chargers. But anybody that's gonna
Speaker 2: let the strength and conditioning coach cut their hair, I'm
Speaker 2: questioning the logic of where they are here with Justin Herbert.
Speaker 1: So this is the second podcast that I've done that
Speaker 1: has referenced feeling worse about Justin Herbert and the Chargers
Speaker 1: because of the haircut. So I really like that we're at.
Speaker 2: Not the haircut itself, it's who he had do the haircut.
Speaker 2: He asked his strength coach to cut his hair. I mean,
Speaker 2: his hair is his thing. Okay, that's the thing for
Speaker 2: the big guy with the flock with the locks and whatever,
Speaker 2: and that that's the surfer boy or Oregon like, that's him.
Speaker 2: To go ahead and cut the serial killer, you know,
Speaker 2: fade whatever you want to call that haircut and to
Speaker 2: have it be like, oh, I didn't care. I want
Speaker 2: to do something to I need to make a change.
Speaker 2: So it gave the Clippers to the strength coach justin dude,
Speaker 2: what's up? Man? Wow? So based on that Jets plus
Speaker 2: eight and a half, well, that.
Speaker 1: Is a scientific analysis. I think I'm more than willing
Speaker 1: to pass on this game at eight and a half.
Speaker 1: I think I would still take Chargers regardless of the
Speaker 1: hair guy. But it isn't something that I feel comfortable
Speaker 1: playing just because I mean maybe that was Joe Flacco's
Speaker 1: game of his life against the Patriots. But you know,
Speaker 1: if you do have if Paraman is going to play
Speaker 1: in this game, you do have Denzel Nims who is
Speaker 1: stepping up looking a little better. You've got Jamison Crowder's
Speaker 1: gonna play a full compliment of snaps, unlike what he
Speaker 1: did against the Patriots. I think they can at least
Speaker 1: score some points. Now, again, the Jets secondary, I mean,
Speaker 1: their cornerback group is a joke right now. Brian Poole
Speaker 1: is just placed on my or you know, they cut
Speaker 1: Pierre to Seer, you know. Plus Austin is out, so
Speaker 1: I don't understand how you're ever gonna stop the Chargers.
Speaker 1: But it doesn't really matter. I don't really want to
Speaker 1: go near it. Okay, So let's recap Matt. This is interesting,
Speaker 1: and again I'm going to I'll tweet it out and
Speaker 1: Matt will tweet it out whether or not we decide
Speaker 1: to use one of our weeks because we have to
Speaker 1: use two over the next six weeks. Now, I think, Matt,
Speaker 1: we have said that we're thinking of using one over Thanksgiving. Correct,
Speaker 1: that's just kind of what you want to do, So
Speaker 1: we will have that one built in, so we might
Speaker 1: use this one. I will let you know. But these
Speaker 1: are a leans, certainly the Chiefs for the contest, at
Speaker 1: least the Chiefs getting minus six and a half to
Speaker 1: the Raiders. That one is a lock in. It's much
Speaker 1: higher now, so it's gonna go high. And you've heard
Speaker 1: our thoughts on that one. The Titans plus six and
Speaker 1: a half against the Ravens. Again, that is moving in
Speaker 1: the other direction right now. So we like the Titans there,
Speaker 1: We like the Jaguars gross getting ten and a half
Speaker 1: from the Steelers. That's still where the line is last
Speaker 1: time I checked everywhere. So if you can get that,
Speaker 1: I really do feel like this is just a letdown
Speaker 1: spot for the Steelers. So then we've got a few
Speaker 1: other games, Matt, that we've talked about, really three unless
Speaker 1: you want to talk about the Falcons getting four and
Speaker 1: a half from the Saints, which I don't think you do.
Speaker 1: Do you like the Colts lank two and a half
Speaker 1: to the Packers, and the Patriots lank two and a
Speaker 1: half to the Texans? And I kind of liked the
Speaker 1: Cowboys getting seven and a half from from the Vikings.
Speaker 1: So of those, do you have a favorite one that
Speaker 1: you like? I mean to assume it's one of the
Speaker 1: two that you put out there.
Speaker 2: Boy, is there I would prefer I would, oh gosh.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's the Patriots saying too and a half to
Speaker 1: the Texans.
Speaker 2: I want to the Patriots, but I'm gonna get called
Speaker 2: a homer for it.
Speaker 1: No, I think that's my FA I think I like
Speaker 1: that one too, Matt. I think if if if you
Speaker 1: were like Dan, what game do you like of those?
Speaker 1: Once we start talking about a little bit more, I
Speaker 1: don't know, man, like just the Patriots now that they're
Speaker 1: kind of back into it a little bit. And I
Speaker 1: will say that I do think that a couple of
Speaker 1: things for the Patriots. Number one, I think it's very possible.
Speaker 1: And I think you mentioned this that it's possible that
Speaker 1: Cam as bad as he looked when he returned from COVID,
Speaker 1: like he could have still been as much as he
Speaker 1: said it was asymptomatic. Like you know from personal experience, Matt,
Speaker 1: that it messes with you.
Speaker 2: The brain fog is real. The brain fog is is
Speaker 2: a thing nobody wants to acknowledge because you can't measure it.
Speaker 2: It's not a fever, it's not a know, a cough,
Speaker 2: it's just you don't feel right. And I agree, I agree.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And he has played better. I mean, he still
Speaker 1: is not a great passer. But again I do think
Speaker 1: that the you know, emergence of Jacoby Myers is a
Speaker 1: big deal. He is playing great. I think Damien Harris
Speaker 1: looks great. I like how they involved Rex Burkhead. I mean,
Speaker 1: I'm gaining a little confidence in this team. And conversely,
Speaker 1: I have very little comments in the Texans. So if
Speaker 1: you're giving it underfield, no Matt. I kind of like
Speaker 1: that game more and more so I do wanting to
Speaker 1: go with that one. If you ate not a Homer,
Speaker 1: I'll make that pick, yeah.
Speaker 2: Because look it's the Look at the Texans against the run.
Speaker 2: Look at the numbers they give up. They just give
Speaker 2: up huge gash chunk plays yep in the run game.
Speaker 1: So all right, So, I mean, I won't quote unquote
Speaker 1: stand on a table, but I will say that I
Speaker 1: do like, particularly the Cowboys getting seven and a half,
Speaker 1: okay from the Vikings, because I do think that they're
Speaker 1: going to come out of the buy. I think this
Speaker 1: is going to be a letdown game for the Vikings
Speaker 1: coming off that big divisional win. I'm not saying that
Speaker 1: the Cowboys are gonna win, but I do like them
Speaker 1: to keep this close enough too.
Speaker 2: It's fading the Vikings. You know, I'm gonna run it.
Speaker 1: So you're good, okay. So if we do go with it,
Speaker 1: we like the Chiefs mind of six and a half
Speaker 1: to the Raiders, the Titans getting six and a half
Speaker 1: from the Ravens, the Jaguars getting ten and a half
Speaker 1: from the Steelers, the Patriots laying two and a half
Speaker 1: to the Texans, and the Cowboys getting seven and a
Speaker 1: half to the Vikings. I don't know, Matt. I do
Speaker 1: not hate this, Okay. I mean that probably means we'd
Speaker 1: go on five. But I don't necessarily hate this. So
Speaker 1: let's let it marinate for a little bit and then
Speaker 1: let's see. I will say, if Devanta Adams turns out
Speaker 1: to be out, I would definitely consider swapping the Colts
Speaker 1: in for the Cowboys in that sense. We can talk
Speaker 1: about that because I really think that that is a huge,
Speaker 1: huge letdown for their offense, even if when Allen's started returned.
Speaker 1: So all right, you feel, you know, maybe we'll think
Speaker 1: about it. We'll talk about it then a little more.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's do it, right, I'm good, good enough for me.
Speaker 1: All right. That is it for today's show. Thanks everybody
Speaker 1: for stopping by. Reminder listen to The Daily Juice, Matt's
Speaker 1: daily podcast, which is great. Tune into the YouTube channel
Speaker 1: YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros for Matt's live stream
Speaker 1: on Sunday mornings eleven a m. To noon Eastern time.
Speaker 1: I will give Matt my props. I remembered last week
Speaker 1: both of them hit right, Yes, excellent. I will give
Speaker 1: make sure I will give Matt my props on Saturday
Speaker 1: night so I don't leaven hanging again. It's a great time.
Speaker 1: So thanks everybody for listening for this podcast. We will
Speaker 1: talk to you next week.