WEBVTT - Week 11 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 65) 0:00:13.760 --> 0:00:17.040 Hey there, everybody. Welcome into the Bedding Bros bet About podcast. 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:18.880 I'm your host Dan Harris. With me, of course, is 0:00:18.880 --> 0:00:20.760 Matt Pearl. You can find us on Twitter at Dan 0:00:20.800 --> 0:00:23.360 Harris Adi and at Sports Talk Matt Matt. How are 0:00:23.360 --> 0:00:26.040 you as we roll into week eleven? 0:00:26.600 --> 0:00:29.800 How am I? I'm a little perturbed at what we 0:00:30.000 --> 0:00:33.000 what for us, what we've been doing. Yeah, and it 0:00:33.159 --> 0:00:39.120 just feels like we're constantly getting caught. Yeah, just every week. 0:00:39.320 --> 0:00:42.360 It's been a frustration where I feel, really, I thought 0:00:42.360 --> 0:00:44.920 we were gonna be great last week and then we 0:00:45.000 --> 0:00:47.080 just got a little bit of a you know, just 0:00:47.120 --> 0:00:49.240 one of those weeks and just it's been a tough year. 0:00:49.320 --> 0:00:52.000 I mean it's been you know, I look around and 0:00:52.000 --> 0:00:53.159 I talk to a lot of my friends who are 0:00:53.159 --> 0:00:55.920 in these contests as well, and it's been a tough year. 0:00:56.000 --> 0:00:57.680 So I'm okay, how about that? 0:00:58.080 --> 0:01:01.040 Yeah? How are you doing in your other two contests 0:01:01.040 --> 0:01:02.880 before I get to the Draftking. 0:01:02.560 --> 0:01:05.080 I'm three and two every week and all of them. Yeah, 0:01:05.120 --> 0:01:07.520 like just consistently. And it's not like we're picking the 0:01:07.520 --> 0:01:10.039 same games either, right, it's three and two, three and 0:01:10.080 --> 0:01:12.360 two the Bears. We would have been four and one 0:01:12.480 --> 0:01:14.280 last week with the Bears. I would have been four 0:01:14.319 --> 0:01:17.520 and one last week in my Westgate Super Contest if 0:01:17.560 --> 0:01:20.399 the Bears had covered the Bears with the right side. 0:01:20.680 --> 0:01:23.160 That third down play is giving me nightmares where they 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:25.760 ran a screen pass with they kick a field goal 0:01:26.120 --> 0:01:28.240 and it's a three point win and we're good. We 0:01:28.360 --> 0:01:31.240 cover and they run a screen pass that made no sense. 0:01:31.280 --> 0:01:33.640 They lost four yards and they had to punt. So yeah, 0:01:33.920 --> 0:01:36.200 just betting on Nick Foles and betting on whether we 0:01:36.280 --> 0:01:41.000 Bill Laser or Matt Nagy. Just the Bears are now 0:01:41.000 --> 0:01:41.920 on my off list. 0:01:42.280 --> 0:01:44.520 Okay, well, you're not gonna get an argument for me. 0:01:44.600 --> 0:01:47.400 Watching that game was very, very frustrating. I agree, But 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:50.240 let's recap our last week. But before we do, let's 0:01:50.240 --> 0:01:52.200 do our usual reminders of a couple of things. Number 0:01:52.200 --> 0:01:55.000 one discord. I don't know how many people are. I 0:01:55.080 --> 0:01:56.720 try to give an update every week, but it's just 0:01:56.760 --> 0:02:01.080 growing too fast. Bettingpros dot Com slash chatd is legitimately 0:02:01.120 --> 0:02:03.480 just a place where you can talk about betting. You 0:02:03.480 --> 0:02:05.080 can talk about it with us, you can talk about 0:02:05.120 --> 0:02:08.680 it with your fellow gamblers. You can talk about any 0:02:08.880 --> 0:02:11.919 topic really you want. In the sports gambling landscape. You've 0:02:11.919 --> 0:02:15.280 got different channels and you can win assigned aj Brown 0:02:15.440 --> 0:02:18.840 helmet that is going on through the end of November. 0:02:18.919 --> 0:02:21.160 If you just go into Betting Pros dot Com slash 0:02:21.240 --> 0:02:23.040 chat and go into discord, there is a place where 0:02:23.080 --> 0:02:26.160 you can enter the contest. It's pretty awesome. The other 0:02:26.200 --> 0:02:28.360 thing is our prop bet What did I said is 0:02:28.360 --> 0:02:31.160 prop bet cheat sheet? Right, that's what, Yes, I've nailed 0:02:31.200 --> 0:02:34.160 the name. Finally, Betting pros dot Com slash props again. 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:38.000 That compares consensus projections to the prop bets that are 0:02:38.000 --> 0:02:40.560 available in the market, and it ranks them based on 0:02:40.960 --> 0:02:44.840 how different, essentially the projections are from the lines that 0:02:44.919 --> 0:02:46.960 the sports book sets. So it's really invaluable if you 0:02:47.000 --> 0:02:50.000 like prop betting, as you should. All Right, so we're 0:02:50.040 --> 0:02:52.520 gonna talk about this week. But as Matt said, we 0:02:52.560 --> 0:02:55.080 went three and two last week, which is basically what 0:02:55.160 --> 0:02:57.840 happens every week. We're essentially middle of the road in 0:02:57.880 --> 0:03:00.200 the contest. So unless we kind of really we go 0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:02.320 crazy here at the end, it's going to be kind 0:03:02.320 --> 0:03:04.120 of hard to make up the ground, but it is 0:03:04.160 --> 0:03:07.440 still possible. We're twenty six and twenty four fifty two percent. 0:03:07.720 --> 0:03:09.720 We hit them. The only game that we both came 0:03:09.760 --> 0:03:12.400 into the week really liking, which was the Bucks laying 0:03:12.480 --> 0:03:14.080 four and a half to the Panthers. That was not 0:03:14.160 --> 0:03:16.240 a sweat. We also hit in the Giants getting three 0:03:16.240 --> 0:03:18.120 and a half from the Eagles and the Rams laying 0:03:18.200 --> 0:03:20.160 one and a half to the Seahawks. We missed on 0:03:20.240 --> 0:03:22.160 the one that Matt liked, which was the Bengals getting 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:24.000 six and a half from the Steelers. And as Matt said, 0:03:24.000 --> 0:03:25.560 the one really that I liked and I pushed a 0:03:25.600 --> 0:03:27.480 little bit, which was the Bears, and they were actually 0:03:27.520 --> 0:03:29.400 only getting two and a half from the Vikings in 0:03:29.440 --> 0:03:31.200 our contest, so we would have lost even if they 0:03:31.200 --> 0:03:33.320 made that fit go. But still, come on, do something. 0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:35.760 We got to get some wins. Also, as we'll talk about, 0:03:36.040 --> 0:03:39.120 we have to play two bye weeks here in the 0:03:39.160 --> 0:03:41.480 next several weeks. I think, what we've got six weeks 0:03:41.520 --> 0:03:43.840 left because it goes through Week sixteen, we've got to 0:03:43.840 --> 0:03:46.600 play two bye weeks, meaning we can't make picks for 0:03:46.680 --> 0:03:49.000 two of the weeks. That might be this week Matt 0:03:49.000 --> 0:03:51.200 and I sort of floated the fact that we didn't 0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:53.080 love the slate this week. We will still go through 0:03:53.080 --> 0:03:55.160 every game. We will give you whatever picks we are 0:03:55.240 --> 0:03:57.560 leaning towards. We may not play them though this week 0:03:57.600 --> 0:03:59.360 because we do have to take a bye week. And 0:03:59.440 --> 0:04:01.400 I don't know, Matt, you still thinking that the slate 0:04:01.440 --> 0:04:03.080 is ugly or in the last few hours have you 0:04:03.080 --> 0:04:04.960 come around and found some games that you really like? 0:04:05.360 --> 0:04:09.800 Still hate it ly? Still till absolutely entirely one hate it? 0:04:09.880 --> 0:04:13.720 But I mean there are three games I like. You 0:04:13.760 --> 0:04:15.920 can if you like them, maybe we play it if 0:04:15.960 --> 0:04:18.360 you want to get into it. I actually like tonight 0:04:18.400 --> 0:04:21.159 on Thursday Night. We haven't played a Thursday Night before, 0:04:21.200 --> 0:04:22.680 but I actually like the Seahawks tonight. 0:04:23.120 --> 0:04:25.839 Oh I thought you didn't like it at Wait when 0:04:26.080 --> 0:04:26.719 it is its. 0:04:26.520 --> 0:04:27.880 Three and a half. It's three and a half in 0:04:27.880 --> 0:04:30.200 our contest. I bet it at three, but I think 0:04:30.320 --> 0:04:33.080 that you know the way, I think it's the seven 0:04:33.080 --> 0:04:36.440 point win personally for the Seahawks tonight, but that's just 0:04:36.480 --> 0:04:38.719 my personal opinion on it. I bet it at three. 0:04:39.120 --> 0:04:42.240 It's down to two and a half. The pros and 0:04:42.279 --> 0:04:44.160 the Joe's are all over this back and forth. I mean, 0:04:44.200 --> 0:04:46.200 it's kind of a crazy game watching the money and 0:04:46.240 --> 0:04:48.479 the line movement as to where it's gone. But I 0:04:48.560 --> 0:04:53.120 like Seattle tonight to win. I think the primetime games 0:04:53.440 --> 0:04:57.880 it's where all the action is. Sunday, Thursday, Monday or 0:04:57.920 --> 0:04:59.760 all the are the best three games of the week. 0:05:00.360 --> 0:05:03.440 Okay, so this is the Seahawks are laying three and 0:05:03.480 --> 0:05:06.920 a half tonight. Man. Yeah, I liked it at three. 0:05:07.000 --> 0:05:09.000 I'd certainly like it two and a half. Yes, But 0:05:09.120 --> 0:05:10.880 you know what, let's talk. We've got we've got We're 0:05:10.920 --> 0:05:13.960 recording this at six pm on Eastern Standard time, so 0:05:14.040 --> 0:05:16.600 we've got two hours until the game goes. So we'll 0:05:16.600 --> 0:05:18.279 talk it through. Let's get to some of the other games, 0:05:18.279 --> 0:05:21.040 and then let's see maybe I don't know whatever, I'd 0:05:21.120 --> 0:05:22.479 be open to it. We could talk about I do 0:05:22.520 --> 0:05:24.640 think that the Seahawks are gonna win this game, so 0:05:25.000 --> 0:05:27.000 I'd be open to doing it. But let's start with 0:05:27.040 --> 0:05:29.040 some of the games here on Sunday or Monday, whatever 0:05:29.040 --> 0:05:30.960 you want. Let's see if we can agree on any 0:05:30.960 --> 0:05:33.320 of them. I have to warn you, Matt, We've been 0:05:33.320 --> 0:05:36.799 doing this now for eleven weeks. I think I generally 0:05:36.920 --> 0:05:41.159 know how you feel about certain picks. I will be 0:05:41.320 --> 0:05:44.000 shocked if you and I are able to come to agreement, 0:05:44.080 --> 0:05:45.880 because the few that I like, I'm always just like, 0:05:45.920 --> 0:05:49.480 oh God, Matt's gonna absolutely despise this pick, But go ahead, 0:05:50.120 --> 0:05:52.239 let's see what you've got. Start us off with your 0:05:52.440 --> 0:05:53.359 favorite play the weekend. 0:05:53.680 --> 0:05:57.880 So there are games that the line movement like, for instance, 0:05:58.760 --> 0:06:01.279 the line movement right now for Casey and the Raiders 0:06:01.720 --> 0:06:04.840 is eight eight and a half. That is sign it's 0:06:04.839 --> 0:06:07.840 six and a half in this contest. Yep, that is 0:06:08.160 --> 0:06:12.080 an insane number. So while I might be on the Chiefs, 0:06:12.120 --> 0:06:15.960 sorry on the on the Raiders betting, I think the 0:06:16.040 --> 0:06:19.200 six and a half off of a bye week under 0:06:19.240 --> 0:06:21.080 a seven point I don't know how you don't bet 0:06:21.160 --> 0:06:22.080 Kansas City. 0:06:21.800 --> 0:06:23.960 Here, Yeah, that's that's on my list. 0:06:24.200 --> 0:06:26.560 I mean, I just I don't know. I don't I 0:06:26.560 --> 0:06:29.960 think the Raiders can keep this game within ten points, 0:06:30.000 --> 0:06:30.760 so I'm gonna. 0:06:30.520 --> 0:06:32.360 Wait beat them. I beat him the first game. 0:06:32.960 --> 0:06:34.880 Well, this is off of a bye it's Andy Reid, 0:06:34.920 --> 0:06:37.240 it's a pissed off bunch of chief players coming in here, 0:06:37.279 --> 0:06:39.320 and the Raiders got COVID problems like crazy. 0:06:39.400 --> 0:06:41.280 Well I think that is that? Do you think that's 0:06:41.320 --> 0:06:43.480 what's accounting for the move Matt, The fact that their 0:06:43.600 --> 0:06:45.520 entire defense is basically COVID. 0:06:45.560 --> 0:06:47.000 I think that's a public move. But I think the 0:06:47.040 --> 0:06:49.760 pro movie is the fact that Andy Reid destroys AFC 0:06:49.839 --> 0:06:53.359 West opponents, and I think it's just been a ridiculous run. 0:06:53.760 --> 0:06:55.480 I think it's like twenty four and four or something 0:06:55.480 --> 0:06:59.440 against the AFC West. So I think that's why it's 0:06:59.440 --> 0:07:01.640 going in. The COVID problems come in and then but 0:07:01.680 --> 0:07:03.560 I'm just gonna wait till this thing gets to ten, 0:07:03.600 --> 0:07:06.480 and I'm gonna bet the Raiders. But for this contest, 0:07:06.520 --> 0:07:08.240 my number one when I wrote down at six and 0:07:08.279 --> 0:07:11.400 a half, the best number play is the Chiefs minus 0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:12.080 six and a half. 0:07:12.520 --> 0:07:14.600 Yeah, I'm gonna for now pencil that one into the 0:07:14.640 --> 0:07:17.400 extent we're going forward, because I definitely had that one 0:07:17.480 --> 0:07:19.840 on my list. You know there is I don't think 0:07:20.320 --> 0:07:22.040 you tell me if it matters in any way to you. 0:07:22.080 --> 0:07:24.640 But Clyde Edwards Hilaire has missed practice so far this 0:07:24.680 --> 0:07:27.760 week with a quote unquote illness and they have not 0:07:27.800 --> 0:07:30.320 elaborated on it. We you know, you know where your 0:07:30.320 --> 0:07:32.640 mind goes as soon as you hear illness, So he 0:07:32.720 --> 0:07:35.320 may he couldn't miss this game, in which case you're 0:07:35.360 --> 0:07:38.160 looking at Le'Veon bell Now they don't run the ball anyway, 0:07:38.200 --> 0:07:40.480 it doesn't really matter. They're getting Sammy Watkins back here. 0:07:40.600 --> 0:07:42.120 But does that matter to you at all if Edward 0:07:42.200 --> 0:07:43.280 Hilaire were to miss this game? 0:07:43.440 --> 0:07:47.000 No, I mean it's the defense. The problem for the 0:07:47.080 --> 0:07:49.840 Raiders is they get no pressure on the quarterback, so 0:07:50.440 --> 0:07:53.080 their secondary. I love Abram talking about a bunch of 0:07:53.120 --> 0:07:56.480 the podcast. I think, you know, getting Arnett back is big. 0:07:56.560 --> 0:08:00.200 His hand is now recovered, so we can play. I 0:08:00.200 --> 0:08:03.000 think they're good at covering, they're not great at getting 0:08:03.000 --> 0:08:04.800 after the quarterback. And I just think they don't have 0:08:04.840 --> 0:08:07.480 a ton of team speed in the secondary. Their linebackers 0:08:07.520 --> 0:08:10.679 are average at best. I think it's a monster Kelsey game, 0:08:10.960 --> 0:08:12.880 and I think it's an angry bunch of Chief players 0:08:12.880 --> 0:08:15.760 coming in that want to prove a point. So it's 0:08:15.800 --> 0:08:18.360 a bad spot for the Raiders to be in. I 0:08:18.400 --> 0:08:22.120 don't think that victory lap bust controversy is actually a thing, 0:08:22.520 --> 0:08:24.120 but I do think there is a level of like, 0:08:24.160 --> 0:08:25.840 this is our division. You guys are a year or 0:08:25.880 --> 0:08:29.000 two early, and yeah, you caught us at home, we'll 0:08:29.040 --> 0:08:31.000 come with our pants down, but where we're ready to 0:08:31.040 --> 0:08:33.800 go here and we're coming after you. So again, I 0:08:33.800 --> 0:08:35.760 think the Raiders have the weapons to keep it close 0:08:35.760 --> 0:08:37.559 in a high scoring game. I love the over in 0:08:37.640 --> 0:08:40.200 this game, but I think you're going to wind up 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:41.920 with a seven point victory for the Chiefs. 0:08:42.200 --> 0:08:45.000 Yeah, under a touchdown. It's really hard not to take 0:08:45.040 --> 0:08:46.840 this game. That's really what it is. As you said, 0:08:46.880 --> 0:08:48.880 the line's been moving. The consensus line that I'm looking 0:08:48.920 --> 0:08:49.720 at right now is eight. 0:08:50.120 --> 0:08:50.280 Yeah. 0:08:50.280 --> 0:08:52.880 I wouldn't be surprised if it goes higher. At seventy 0:08:52.920 --> 0:08:56.160 one percent are still on the Chiefs in our bed analyzer. 0:08:56.240 --> 0:08:58.480 So yeah. I mean, if there were a game that 0:08:58.520 --> 0:08:59.719 I was going to pick that was on my list 0:08:59.760 --> 0:09:01.560 that I think I thought you might like because of 0:09:01.600 --> 0:09:03.880 the fact that it's under touchdown, it would be this one. 0:09:03.920 --> 0:09:06.640 So again, if we do play this week, let's pencil 0:09:06.679 --> 0:09:08.600 that in. But if you somehow find it anywhere at 0:09:08.640 --> 0:09:10.800 six and a half, we'll certainly take that. Now, Matt, 0:09:10.840 --> 0:09:13.679 what is your dividing line between when you think it 0:09:13.760 --> 0:09:15.920 goes to the point where you would feel comfortable to Raiders? 0:09:15.960 --> 0:09:17.360 Is it ten? Is that the line? 0:09:17.440 --> 0:09:17.640 Yeah? 0:09:17.720 --> 0:09:19.880 Yeah? And other than that, if it's over a touchdown, 0:09:19.920 --> 0:09:21.720 are you just staying away in between let's say seven? 0:09:21.880 --> 0:09:24.640 Yeah, Because I think the difference between eight and ten. 0:09:24.960 --> 0:09:28.280 The books go very quickly, so you'll see line movements. 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:30.040 The books have no problem going from seven and a 0:09:30.120 --> 0:09:32.120 half to eight and then from eight and a half 0:09:32.200 --> 0:09:35.360 to ten, so they'll move it fast, and so getting 0:09:35.400 --> 0:09:37.480 off the key numbers of seven and eight are always 0:09:37.480 --> 0:09:40.160 the most difficult. Going below sevens even more difficult. So 0:09:40.480 --> 0:09:42.680 and the most difficult is three to three and a half. 0:09:42.760 --> 0:09:45.640 That's the most difficult line movement for the books. So 0:09:46.559 --> 0:09:48.400 I think if it gets to eight and a half, 0:09:48.440 --> 0:09:50.600 it'll go ten. It'll just they'll just keep on moving 0:09:50.640 --> 0:09:52.000 it up and they won't worry about it. Then look 0:09:52.000 --> 0:09:54.719 at the ten and then they'll stop because then by 0:09:54.760 --> 0:09:56.360 because it gets to ten and a half, the pros 0:09:56.400 --> 0:09:58.000 will come in on the raiders and buy it back. 0:09:58.400 --> 0:10:00.160 So ten's my number. 0:10:00.160 --> 0:10:03.439 Got it okay? So this ends the portion of the 0:10:03.480 --> 0:10:06.240 show where Dan and Matt agree on anything, is what I. 0:10:06.160 --> 0:10:08.400 Think, because we'll see hold on all right. 0:10:08.480 --> 0:10:11.280 Because the games I'm taking, I just can hear you 0:10:11.840 --> 0:10:14.320 doing the thing that you go. You have the whole 0:10:15.240 --> 0:10:17.040 slate available to you. 0:10:17.880 --> 0:10:19.439 Head one game in my head that I think that 0:10:19.480 --> 0:10:23.000 you're gonna do, and I want to my reaction will 0:10:23.000 --> 0:10:24.839 only be off of one game, and I want to 0:10:24.840 --> 0:10:26.120 see if you actually take it. 0:10:26.240 --> 0:10:28.480 I bet you I'll take it. It's probably not going 0:10:28.520 --> 0:10:31.040 to be this game because this game is backing an 0:10:31.120 --> 0:10:35.360 ugly team, but it's kind of the classic by Low 0:10:35.800 --> 0:10:39.520 in a situation where this team usually comes up big 0:10:39.559 --> 0:10:42.400 no matter how bad they look. It's the Eagles getting 0:10:42.440 --> 0:10:44.640 three and a half from the Browns. Now they're in Cleveland. 0:10:44.679 --> 0:10:46.360 Look the Eagles, I think the match. 0:10:46.280 --> 0:10:47.760 Up the number two is on the other side. 0:10:48.080 --> 0:10:50.199 Oh, you like the Browns. All right, well, let's talk 0:10:50.240 --> 0:10:52.720 this through. And I will say immediately what I do 0:10:52.760 --> 0:10:55.839 when we make a pick is I go to the 0:10:55.880 --> 0:10:58.080 bed analyzer and I look at which side people are. 0:10:58.120 --> 0:11:00.360 Now that the consensus spread is three and Wold fel 0:11:00.360 --> 0:11:02.160 a litle diferently about this game of three, but it's 0:11:02.280 --> 0:11:06.400 legitimately fifty percent. Fifty percent on the Eagles, fifty percent 0:11:06.400 --> 0:11:09.319 are on the Browns. So here's here's my line of thinking. 0:11:09.520 --> 0:11:13.320 Number one. Historically speaking, I just think this is when 0:11:13.360 --> 0:11:16.440 you back the Eagles when they look absolutely like maybe 0:11:16.440 --> 0:11:19.840 the worst team in football, and then you know they 0:11:19.960 --> 0:11:21.719 like that game against the forty nine ers Matt where 0:11:21.720 --> 0:11:23.920 we talked ourselves into them getting seven and a half, 0:11:23.920 --> 0:11:26.000 and I realized that maybe that game was a little 0:11:26.040 --> 0:11:27.760 bit more on the forty nine ers than it was 0:11:27.880 --> 0:11:30.200 necessarily on the Eagles. But you look at a game 0:11:30.200 --> 0:11:33.040 where they look just dead in the water, which they did, 0:11:33.280 --> 0:11:35.840 and you just say, Okay, this is probably a spot 0:11:36.040 --> 0:11:39.640 where they're gonna bounce back. Miles centers looked very good 0:11:39.840 --> 0:11:41.480 in the game against the Giants. I think he's going 0:11:41.559 --> 0:11:44.040 to look very good here. They get a lot of pressure. 0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:46.200 That's the one thing that the Eagles defense really does. 0:11:46.200 --> 0:11:48.880 They get pressure, they're able to stop the run. I 0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:50.760 guess the two things that they do. They're able to 0:11:50.760 --> 0:11:53.720 stop the run. That's what Cleveland absolutely needs. And they 0:11:53.720 --> 0:11:55.840 get a lot of pressure. And you know that's where 0:11:55.840 --> 0:11:58.240 Baker kind of struggles. He doesn't like to get pressure, 0:11:58.360 --> 0:12:01.160 and that I think the Browns defense is overrated. I 0:12:01.160 --> 0:12:03.079 think they've got you know, they've had the two games 0:12:03.080 --> 0:12:05.559 in the wind, They've had a pretty easy schedule. So 0:12:05.880 --> 0:12:07.920 this is really more of a I bet on the 0:12:07.920 --> 0:12:10.080 Eagles just when you think they're done. Now, I've caught 0:12:10.080 --> 0:12:12.440 this already at three and a half. At three, maybe not. 0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:14.200 I think they could win it out right, But I 0:12:14.240 --> 0:12:15.559 do like it when I'm getting a hook, So go 0:12:15.559 --> 0:12:17.760 ahead and give your side because you like the Browns obviously. 0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:20.920 Well, the weather forecast is gonna be not as windy 0:12:21.240 --> 0:12:23.320 as the previous two, but it's not gonna be nice. 0:12:23.600 --> 0:12:25.319 It looks like rain, right, it's. 0:12:25.120 --> 0:12:27.640 Gonna be cold. It's gonna be rainy. Ye, it's gonna 0:12:27.640 --> 0:12:33.319 be breezy. Not not an hour maybe as a time 0:12:33.360 --> 0:12:35.839 of tape it's Thursday, I thinks can switch in, but yes, 0:12:35.920 --> 0:12:37.920 the forecast is not the thirty five mile par our 0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:40.160 sustained wins that we saw last week for them, but 0:12:40.320 --> 0:12:43.760 it's still weather. Eagles are awful, Wentz is awful. 0:12:44.000 --> 0:12:44.200 Yep. 0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:47.120 This is who the Browns beat. The Browns beat bad teams. 0:12:47.160 --> 0:12:49.600 They can't beat anybody good. But if you look at 0:12:49.600 --> 0:12:51.599 PFF Pro Football Focus, they have the I think of 0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:54.040 the third ranked offense in the NFL right now. So 0:12:54.880 --> 0:12:56.520 I mean they could score and they could put the 0:12:56.520 --> 0:12:58.520 points up on anybody. And that's even with Odell or 0:12:58.520 --> 0:13:00.600 without Odell, they can put points up on the board. 0:13:00.640 --> 0:13:04.000 Hooper with the tight end. I just think this is 0:13:04.000 --> 0:13:06.880 a bad team that you know, the Browns beat bad teams, 0:13:07.040 --> 0:13:11.600 and the Eagles are a really really bad team. Yeah, 0:13:11.760 --> 0:13:13.880 I'm at home laying. I think they win the game 0:13:13.920 --> 0:13:14.360 by seven. 0:13:14.720 --> 0:13:16.720 Okay, all right, so we're gonna stay off it because 0:13:16.720 --> 0:13:18.720 I'm not. I mean, sometimes there are times where I 0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:21.160 come in on one side and you talk me into 0:13:21.200 --> 0:13:23.680 it and I do get your points completely about this 0:13:24.000 --> 0:13:27.320 to me, again, this is a spot where you're like, 0:13:27.440 --> 0:13:30.000 the Eagles might be the worst team in football, and 0:13:30.040 --> 0:13:31.960 then they come up and they come up big, and 0:13:32.000 --> 0:13:33.679 I really think that this is a game again. I 0:13:33.720 --> 0:13:36.880 think the Browns are really I mean, they're just I 0:13:36.880 --> 0:13:39.280 think they're overrated. Man. Without Odell Beckham, I think that 0:13:39.360 --> 0:13:41.800 you know, Chubb is great, Kareem Hunt is great. But 0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:45.000 I think that the Eagles are gonna understand, Okay, let's 0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:47.400 make Odell Beckham Junior beat us if they can. And 0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:49.600 they're pretty decent against the run, and I'm just not 0:13:49.800 --> 0:13:52.040 confident without Odell Beckham Junior that he's gonna be able 0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:54.320 to do that throwing to Jarvis Landry and Roshard Higgins 0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:56.720 and Austin Hooper without those guys. So for me, I 0:13:56.720 --> 0:13:58.439 think this is sort of the classic. All Right, the 0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:00.480 Eagles are left for dead. Wait a minute, Why did 0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:03.040 they just win the game by ten points? I don't understand. 0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:05.040 So all right, let's go to your next That was 0:14:05.080 --> 0:14:05.760 your number two. 0:14:05.679 --> 0:14:07.599 Under too, Let's get your one and told you I 0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:08.000 had three. 0:14:08.200 --> 0:14:08.959 Yeah, I'm ready. 0:14:09.080 --> 0:14:13.080 Casey won Cleveland two, and I think the Ravens are 0:14:13.120 --> 0:14:17.520 a mess. I got the Titans here. I think the 0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:21.400 Titans win this game outright. I think they're the better offense. 0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:24.320 I think they're the better defense. I think there's some 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:26.960 real problems right now with Lamar Jackson trying to move 0:14:27.000 --> 0:14:28.960 the football. And you can make the excuse about the 0:14:29.040 --> 0:14:32.000 rain and the wind and whatever you want to say 0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:35.320 about why the Patriots beat the Ravens, but they got 0:14:35.400 --> 0:14:39.040 problems in Baltimore. People had them. Colin Cowhard had them 0:14:39.040 --> 0:14:42.560 going sixteen and oh, okay sixteen and oh this year, 0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:46.360 there's some real problems in Baltimore. I like the Titans. 0:14:46.720 --> 0:14:48.840 Whatever point tumber what is it? Six and a half? 0:14:48.920 --> 0:14:50.280 Six in six and a half? 0:14:50.320 --> 0:14:52.160 Six and a half? Love it? Titans plus six and 0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:52.520 a half? 0:14:52.800 --> 0:14:55.840 Yep, this I'm on this as well. And what's funny 0:14:55.880 --> 0:14:57.480 is that this wasn't my number one, but I thought 0:14:57.480 --> 0:15:00.800 about leading with it because I was like, this could 0:15:00.880 --> 0:15:03.720 this seems like a game that Matt might like. Yeah, 0:15:03.760 --> 0:15:06.160 And I loved the Ravens. I was willing to back 0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:07.640 them all the time. And again I kind of talked 0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:10.200 this into and you heard from some other people into 0:15:10.240 --> 0:15:12.640 backing them against the Colts. But they didn't look good 0:15:12.680 --> 0:15:14.680 in that game. Really, you know, they wound up winning it, 0:15:14.720 --> 0:15:17.280 and they really really did not look good. And kudos 0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:18.920 to you, by the way, that was my bad. The 0:15:18.960 --> 0:15:22.160 Patriots were your last one, but one of the picks 0:15:22.160 --> 0:15:24.040 that you said you were willing to go with last 0:15:24.080 --> 0:15:26.200 week against the Ravens, and I thought you were nuts, 0:15:26.480 --> 0:15:28.840 and that was absolutely the right side. So kudos to you. 0:15:29.080 --> 0:15:31.800 I mean, not only Matt, are they a mess? But 0:15:32.560 --> 0:15:34.800 the big thing right like, they're good against the run, 0:15:34.840 --> 0:15:36.640 and you're like, well, the Titans really need to establish 0:15:36.760 --> 0:15:39.560 Eric Henry. No Brandon Williams, and he's not gonna play 0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:42.000 in this game. He's mispracticed. He is the guy who 0:15:42.080 --> 0:15:44.000 stops the run. He was the guy last year when 0:15:44.000 --> 0:15:46.040 he was out. You saw how they were against the run. 0:15:46.120 --> 0:15:48.080 It's gonna be the same thing this year. Probably. No 0:15:48.200 --> 0:15:51.200 kalay Is cambell here, no Stanley on the line, Nick Boyle, 0:15:51.320 --> 0:15:53.560 is kind of actually a sneaky big loss that they've 0:15:53.560 --> 0:15:56.040 got here going on. So I'm in total agree with 0:15:56.080 --> 0:15:58.120 you on this one. Actually, this is week two of 0:15:58.160 --> 0:16:00.320 your picks right now are two games that were not 0:16:00.520 --> 0:16:03.040 just I'm okay with it actually on my list. So 0:16:03.520 --> 0:16:05.800 if we go, we'll go with the Titans plus six 0:16:05.880 --> 0:16:08.200 and a half against the Ravens. Very good. All right, 0:16:08.240 --> 0:16:10.480 so you're done now right. You don't have any I. 0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:13.320 Have two leans. Those are my yeses. I've got two 0:16:13.320 --> 0:16:14.800 others that are on my list, and if you say 0:16:14.840 --> 0:16:16.040 you want it, I'm comfortable with it. 0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:19.080 Okay, they I'm not going to list those, I can 0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:22.000 almost promise you because these are ugly. So just get 0:16:22.040 --> 0:16:24.880 ready for how ugly this is about to get. How 0:16:24.960 --> 0:16:27.600 ugly do you think it is to take the Jaguars 0:16:27.640 --> 0:16:29.160 getting ten and a half from the Steelers? 0:16:29.360 --> 0:16:31.680 I like it? What? Yeah? I like it? 0:16:31.760 --> 0:16:33.720 I love it? Okay, yeah, I mean. 0:16:33.560 --> 0:16:35.040 This is not on my list, but I like it 0:16:35.080 --> 0:16:36.080 because this is my thinking. 0:16:36.200 --> 0:16:37.880 Oh go ahead, no, no, no, you go ahead out then 0:16:37.920 --> 0:16:38.680 I'll just go ahead. 0:16:38.760 --> 0:16:42.360 Historically speaking, over the last four years, YEP teams with 0:16:42.480 --> 0:16:45.360 one loss taking on a team that's undefeated. They are 0:16:45.480 --> 0:16:47.920 three and one against the spread. I just think that 0:16:48.000 --> 0:16:51.400 this is a classic. Pittsburgh needs to lose a game, 0:16:51.640 --> 0:16:55.080 okay before the playoffs. If you're a Steeler fan, this 0:16:55.120 --> 0:16:57.400 is the game you can lose. You can lose this 0:16:57.480 --> 0:17:00.600 game out of nowhere. You get beat, it means nothing. 0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:02.560 You have a three game lead in the division. You 0:17:02.600 --> 0:17:04.040 just come off of a big win over the Ravens 0:17:04.320 --> 0:17:07.200 a couple weeks ago. This game, this is trap city 0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:10.639 for Pittsburgh. Here that this is a one win team, 0:17:10.840 --> 0:17:13.800 wounded animal. If you will back into a corner at home. 0:17:14.880 --> 0:17:18.040 I'm totally comfortable with It's not one of my picks, 0:17:18.080 --> 0:17:19.240 but I'm comfortable with Jacksimo. 0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:21.480 This is hilarious for it because I thought you were 0:17:21.520 --> 0:17:23.960 gonna be like, no way, yeah, ten and a half 0:17:24.040 --> 0:17:26.320 at this point. By the way, I did forget on 0:17:26.400 --> 0:17:28.520 the Titans and the Ravens. The spread is moving. By 0:17:28.560 --> 0:17:30.919 the way, it's not only minus five and seventy percent 0:17:31.080 --> 0:17:33.280 are on the Titans. So just to be clear on 0:17:33.320 --> 0:17:35.720 that one. Yeah, with this one, I mean, this is 0:17:35.760 --> 0:17:38.200 like a mike and I wanted to fade. I forget 0:17:38.240 --> 0:17:40.360 what it was, but I maybe it was against the Ravens. 0:17:40.520 --> 0:17:42.639 But it was something where I wanted to fade Tomlin 0:17:42.680 --> 0:17:45.400 because you know, the Steelers come in and that Cowboys game. 0:17:45.760 --> 0:17:49.840 That Cowboys game is what Mike Tomlin and the Steelers 0:17:49.880 --> 0:17:52.480 really are. Mike Tomlin's a very very good coach. I'm 0:17:52.480 --> 0:17:54.600 not saying anything away from him, but he does not 0:17:55.040 --> 0:17:58.160 get the team up to play in these games where 0:17:58.200 --> 0:18:03.000 they are massive favorite. It's especially when they're not in division, right, 0:18:03.040 --> 0:18:05.160 like this is just and you look at that Cowboys game. 0:18:05.440 --> 0:18:08.399 They were like inches away from suddenly being like, oh 0:18:08.480 --> 0:18:11.200 my god, you just lost to the Cowboys. And don't 0:18:11.240 --> 0:18:15.760 forget next week is Thanksgiving. They play the Ravens on Thanksgiving, right, 0:18:15.840 --> 0:18:19.040 so they've got to be looking ahead right in this game. 0:18:19.480 --> 0:18:22.159 This game cannot mean anything to them. No, I'm not wrong, right, 0:18:22.160 --> 0:18:25.080 they play the Ravens on thanks Game, Yes, so they've 0:18:25.080 --> 0:18:27.040 got to be looking ahead at that point to what 0:18:27.080 --> 0:18:28.800 this are. I'm not saying the Jaguars are gonna win. 0:18:29.080 --> 0:18:30.920 I'm just saying ten and a half. You're getting more 0:18:30.960 --> 0:18:33.760 than the ten. Yeah, I'll take that. Actually, I want 0:18:33.760 --> 0:18:35.400 to look at where the bed analyzer has that one, 0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:39.080 because it's now this is actually it leans towards Jacksonville, 0:18:39.320 --> 0:18:41.840 but not overwhelmingly, so just fifty three percent. But yeah, 0:18:41.840 --> 0:18:43.360 this is a game I feel I don't know, man, 0:18:43.480 --> 0:18:46.040 I feel pretty comfortable with this one. So Okay, we've 0:18:46.080 --> 0:18:48.040 got we've got three that we're talking about. Let's go 0:18:48.040 --> 0:18:49.920 to your next one. That you don't absolutely your lean 0:18:50.000 --> 0:18:51.919 that you don't despise Colts. 0:18:53.080 --> 0:18:56.560 I've been so wrong on the Colts this year. You've 0:18:56.720 --> 0:18:59.840 liked the Colts a lot this year? Yeah, what about 0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:01.080 what about Indie this week? 0:19:01.920 --> 0:19:04.560 So the spread is two and a half, laying two 0:19:04.560 --> 0:19:05.640 and a half to the Packers. 0:19:05.840 --> 0:19:06.080 Yep. 0:19:08.560 --> 0:19:11.240 I don't hate it. I don't hate it. I don't 0:19:11.280 --> 0:19:12.919 know that I don't have a good lean on it. 0:19:12.960 --> 0:19:16.280 I will say that Devontae Adams has missed practice so 0:19:16.440 --> 0:19:19.000 far this week with an angle injury. Now they're getting 0:19:19.000 --> 0:19:23.080 bizarred back, but their their whole persona is different if 0:19:23.080 --> 0:19:24.879 they don't have DeVante Adams. 0:19:24.960 --> 0:19:25.120 Yep. 0:19:25.160 --> 0:19:27.520 And the Colts are off a mini bi I'm a 0:19:27.520 --> 0:19:30.399 little worried that they might be flying high after that. 0:19:30.960 --> 0:19:34.240 But so here's so, here's here's what I've been talking 0:19:34.240 --> 0:19:36.239 to some people about. And I don't know how you 0:19:36.280 --> 0:19:40.200 biden into conspiracy theories, But have you seen the latest 0:19:40.200 --> 0:19:44.000 one with what's going on here? Why the Colts supposedly 0:19:44.080 --> 0:19:46.600 knew what the Titans were going to be and defensively. 0:19:46.160 --> 0:19:47.760 Like crazy, I actually have not. 0:19:48.359 --> 0:19:51.560 There's there's a conspiracy theory out there that the Colts 0:19:51.640 --> 0:19:54.840 have been listening to the calls of the defenses that 0:19:54.880 --> 0:19:58.240 they're playing and they're going back into the game film 0:19:58.240 --> 0:20:01.640 because there's no crowd, so the radio, the radio call 0:20:01.680 --> 0:20:04.520 and the TV call, you can hear the audibles being 0:20:04.560 --> 0:20:10.240 yelled out by the defenses. Supposedly, Supposedly, there's been some 0:20:10.400 --> 0:20:13.000 interesting work going on with the Colts and they know 0:20:13.080 --> 0:20:16.679 what the defensive audibles are and you're hearing Philip rivers 0:20:16.880 --> 0:20:19.399 switch into different plays. They're gonna put them in the 0:20:19.440 --> 0:20:21.879 better play based upon what the defense has switched into. 0:20:22.320 --> 0:20:24.680 But you feel like that that's not like I mean, 0:20:24.760 --> 0:20:25.600 I get. 0:20:25.440 --> 0:20:29.000 It, No, no, no, it's a trick of a veteran who 0:20:29.080 --> 0:20:31.119 knows what to get. That's why they've been moving the 0:20:31.119 --> 0:20:33.320 ball so well on some of these good defenses. 0:20:33.400 --> 0:20:36.600 But I would think that, like, I mean, that's you 0:20:36.600 --> 0:20:38.600 know that. When you first said I was like wow, 0:20:38.640 --> 0:20:41.679 And I was like, well, wait, like that seems pretty 0:20:41.960 --> 0:20:44.000 like why wouldn't every team do that like that? That's 0:20:44.320 --> 0:20:46.840 everybody know. You can hear everything now, yep in these games, 0:20:46.840 --> 0:20:49.320 like why would that be something that It's sort of like, Wow, 0:20:49.880 --> 0:20:52.400 the Colts stumbled upon this amazing way, Like I would 0:20:52.440 --> 0:20:56.679 think the teams are changing their audibles every week. I 0:20:56.720 --> 0:20:58.680 don't hate it. I just think the Colts are are 0:20:58.760 --> 0:21:01.240 a good I mean, River did look done for a while. 0:21:01.280 --> 0:21:04.280 He looks a little better now. I mean I think 0:21:04.320 --> 0:21:07.520 that they're you know, I think Michael Pittman Junior being 0:21:07.520 --> 0:21:10.000 back is definitely helpful, getting him like a real playmarker 0:21:10.040 --> 0:21:13.600 in that offense. So especially with Adams being questionable, I'm 0:21:13.600 --> 0:21:16.760 gonna put that one in the in the maybe. I 0:21:16.840 --> 0:21:19.359 mean I lean that side, so I'll definitely put that 0:21:19.359 --> 0:21:21.320 one in the maybe. Okay, this is going better than 0:21:21.359 --> 0:21:23.199 I thought here that I thought we would get all 0:21:23.320 --> 0:21:26.000 right this one. I'd actually really like to know your 0:21:26.040 --> 0:21:29.120 thoughts on because you know, the Vikings looked really good. 0:21:29.200 --> 0:21:32.600 They've played better, but I kind of like the Cowboys 0:21:32.640 --> 0:21:35.160 getting more than the touchdown at seven and a half 0:21:35.280 --> 0:21:37.440 against the Vikings, and I'll lay my case on and 0:21:37.520 --> 0:21:39.040 then you could say I hate it or I lean 0:21:39.119 --> 0:21:41.560 that way. That's fine, Dalton should start here. I don't 0:21:41.560 --> 0:21:43.760 really know if that matters whether or not. As long 0:21:43.800 --> 0:21:46.520 as it's not Ben Denucci, it's fine. It doesn't really 0:21:46.600 --> 0:21:49.360 matter which one it is. Their line is getting healthier 0:21:49.400 --> 0:21:53.679 at this point. The Vikings cornerbacks, as we know, are abysmal, 0:21:53.760 --> 0:21:55.880 and just the fact that you had Nick Foles who 0:21:55.880 --> 0:21:58.560 couldn't do anything, that's really why you weren't able to 0:21:58.640 --> 0:22:03.159 necessarily exploit them. The defense played pretty well against the Steelers, 0:22:03.200 --> 0:22:05.040 as much as the Steelers kind of like meled it 0:22:05.080 --> 0:22:08.199 in a little bit like the Cowboys defense played a 0:22:08.200 --> 0:22:08.640 little better. 0:22:08.680 --> 0:22:08.840 Now. 0:22:08.840 --> 0:22:11.240 They do have some injuries back there, but they're coming 0:22:11.240 --> 0:22:13.560 off a bye. If Zeke's gonna be a little healthier. 0:22:13.560 --> 0:22:15.879 The Vikings are on a short week. This seems like 0:22:15.960 --> 0:22:18.040 sort of a little bit of a trap game here 0:22:18.080 --> 0:22:20.679 for the Vikings, as they're flying high getting more than 0:22:20.720 --> 0:22:22.560 a touchdown. I kind of like the Cowboys to keep 0:22:22.560 --> 0:22:23.360 this game close. 0:22:23.359 --> 0:22:26.240 Yeah, because then the other contest it's seven, So we 0:22:26.320 --> 0:22:28.160 got a little better number there at seven and a half, 0:22:28.240 --> 0:22:31.760 which I like on the hook perspective, And frankly, look, 0:22:32.119 --> 0:22:34.719 I didn't think the Vikings played that well and they 0:22:34.760 --> 0:22:38.360 won the game. So like, okay, they won, Kirk Cousins 0:22:38.400 --> 0:22:40.040 gets to run around to be like I won a 0:22:40.080 --> 0:22:42.200 game on Monday Night football. Now look at me. I'm 0:22:42.200 --> 0:22:45.360 no longer oh to nine. I can't stand Kirk Cousins. 0:22:45.359 --> 0:22:48.359 So I know I remember, I have no problem fading 0:22:48.440 --> 0:22:50.200 him here. I have no issue if you want to 0:22:50.240 --> 0:22:52.600 stand on a table and you feel strongly, I don't 0:22:52.600 --> 0:22:54.320 have a strong lean one way or the other. 0:22:54.560 --> 0:22:54.800 Yeah. 0:22:54.800 --> 0:22:57.040 But if I'm gonna fade Kirk Cousins and I get 0:22:57.080 --> 0:22:58.800 more than a touchdown, okay. 0:22:58.920 --> 0:23:00.840 Yeah, I think I I kind of like this one, 0:23:00.880 --> 0:23:02.920 I'll you know. And again it's at seven right now, 0:23:02.960 --> 0:23:06.120 fifty seven percent of experts in our bed analyzer are 0:23:06.160 --> 0:23:08.760 on Dallas. I think, coming off a bye, I think 0:23:08.800 --> 0:23:10.200 this is a game where they're going to come out 0:23:10.240 --> 0:23:10.720 and play well. 0:23:10.720 --> 0:23:13.520 And again, well, the number is Mike McCarthy is ten 0:23:13.560 --> 0:23:15.840 and two against the spread up of a bye in 0:23:15.880 --> 0:23:16.399 his career. 0:23:16.680 --> 0:23:18.320 Yeah, I was gonna get to McCarthy in the second. 0:23:18.320 --> 0:23:21.000 That's absolutely right. The other thing is, remember Dalvin Cook, 0:23:21.160 --> 0:23:23.240 as amazing as he is. I was talking about it 0:23:23.240 --> 0:23:25.879 on our DFS show today. What do you have thirty 0:23:25.960 --> 0:23:28.399 two to thirty four touches in this game on a 0:23:28.440 --> 0:23:31.480 short week, Like there's just so much the guy can do. 0:23:31.640 --> 0:23:35.040 And their receivers are very I mean, Jefferson is great, 0:23:35.080 --> 0:23:37.760 Adam Feelin is very very good. And again the Cowboys 0:23:37.760 --> 0:23:39.560 are a little injured in their secondary, but I just 0:23:39.680 --> 0:23:43.040 I think that they're going to be able to move. 0:23:43.040 --> 0:23:44.919 I don't think Dalton was nearly as bad as he 0:23:45.119 --> 0:23:47.720 looked in that first game. We've seen Dalton be a 0:23:47.880 --> 0:23:50.880 competent NFL quarterback. And again, the Vikings defense is really 0:23:50.880 --> 0:23:52.240 nothing to write home about it. If you give me 0:23:52.359 --> 0:23:54.640 arrested zeke, you give me the good line, you give 0:23:54.680 --> 0:23:58.280 me competent quarterback play, at least with the receivers, I 0:23:58.560 --> 0:24:01.000 think they'll keep it within a touchdo so. I do 0:24:01.080 --> 0:24:02.600 kind of like this game. This one would be one 0:24:02.600 --> 0:24:04.879 that I would kind of push to get in if 0:24:04.920 --> 0:24:06.480 we were sort of like, well we need one more. 0:24:06.520 --> 0:24:08.600 I think this one, you know, comes in at fourth 0:24:08.600 --> 0:24:10.840 on my list, behind the one that we're not going 0:24:10.880 --> 0:24:12.600 to go with with the Eagles. But I like the 0:24:13.080 --> 0:24:15.119 Titans as well as the Chiefs. All right, so do 0:24:15.119 --> 0:24:16.600 you have another lean here that you were looking at? 0:24:16.640 --> 0:24:18.159 The only other game I was looking at, or the 0:24:18.200 --> 0:24:20.200 Patriots laying two and a half or two. 0:24:21.240 --> 0:24:24.199 I think it's two and a half in the contest. 0:24:24.240 --> 0:24:26.080 It's two and a half in the contest. The consensus 0:24:26.119 --> 0:24:27.239 line right now is two though. 0:24:27.359 --> 0:24:30.000 Yeah, Patriots on the road against the Texans laying too, 0:24:30.160 --> 0:24:31.800 And that's the only other one that I would lean 0:24:31.880 --> 0:24:33.600 to because I do think that this is the game 0:24:33.640 --> 0:24:36.600 where if the year is going to turn around for 0:24:36.640 --> 0:24:39.399 the Patriots, this is it. Yeah, So if they're going 0:24:39.440 --> 0:24:41.240 to be a contender, if they're going to be in 0:24:41.280 --> 0:24:44.440 the conversation point, Look, Shaun Watson's very dangerous. I'm not 0:24:44.440 --> 0:24:47.119 going to debate that. But Damien Harris is going to 0:24:47.200 --> 0:24:50.919 have a monster u DFS in prop players, My favorite 0:24:50.920 --> 0:24:53.680 prop bit of the week is Damien Harris to run 0:24:54.000 --> 0:24:56.040 crazy on this Texans defense. 0:24:56.400 --> 0:24:58.520 Is that an actual prop bet that they that they list. 0:24:58.600 --> 0:25:00.439 Will Damien Harris run crazy? 0:25:00.720 --> 0:25:04.760 Yes, over over over over, touches, over carries, over yardage, 0:25:04.760 --> 0:25:07.800 touchdown props. I will be on the daily juice. Damien 0:25:07.880 --> 0:25:09.760 Harris is going to be where I'm gonna ride this 0:25:09.800 --> 0:25:13.360 guy like crazy. So I think he has a monster game. 0:25:13.440 --> 0:25:16.240 I think they play keep away they don't let Watson 0:25:16.320 --> 0:25:18.239 go deep and beat them. Although they will have their 0:25:18.240 --> 0:25:20.960 secondary back, which is good. Gilmore should play and I 0:25:21.000 --> 0:25:22.000 just think the Patriots. 0:25:21.720 --> 0:25:23.160 Is Gilmore gonna play in this game, by the way 0:25:23.160 --> 0:25:23.720 I think he's. 0:25:23.560 --> 0:25:25.000 Going to do. I think that's why I think they 0:25:25.000 --> 0:25:26.840 didn't play him last week, because I think that they 0:25:26.920 --> 0:25:29.280 knew they didn't need him because of the fact that 0:25:29.359 --> 0:25:31.919 Ravens can't pass. They need him in this game. To 0:25:31.960 --> 0:25:34.520 shop is to stop Watson. Yeah, so put him on 0:25:34.560 --> 0:25:37.400 fuller and see what happens. But I am I think 0:25:37.400 --> 0:25:38.560 the Patriots won the game by three. 0:25:40.160 --> 0:25:43.600 Yeah, I'm inclined to agree with this one. Matt. I'm 0:25:43.680 --> 0:25:45.359 on that side. I mean, I lean that way. It 0:25:45.400 --> 0:25:47.320 wasn't one of my picks, but I did. I always 0:25:47.320 --> 0:25:49.960 have like, okay, if Matt comes in, which side of 0:25:50.040 --> 0:25:52.000 my own if I say something. I was on that side, 0:25:52.040 --> 0:25:55.480 And I've kind of been more and more talking myself 0:25:55.520 --> 0:25:57.840 into this game as we got there. I was, you know, 0:25:58.040 --> 0:25:59.840 I'm not sure that it matters, you know, because I 0:25:59.840 --> 0:26:01.159 know was two and a half, and it was two 0:26:01.200 --> 0:26:03.600 and a half when I earlier locked in my pick, 0:26:03.640 --> 0:26:06.080 which was the Patriots already and now it's moved to 0:26:06.119 --> 0:26:09.359 a little bit. Sixty two percent of experts in our 0:26:09.359 --> 0:26:13.480 bed analyzer are on the Patriots. So yeah, I'm thinking. 0:26:13.480 --> 0:26:15.720 There's one game. I can't believe you hadn't brought up yet. 0:26:15.720 --> 0:26:16.679 I thought for sure you. 0:26:16.720 --> 0:26:19.879 Were done, that we've done it. Wait, I don't have 0:26:20.040 --> 0:26:21.600 which did you think I was giving? 0:26:21.800 --> 0:26:24.200 I thought you'd be on the Falcons. 0:26:24.200 --> 0:26:27.280 Oh okay, so that that is fair. The Falcons were 0:26:27.359 --> 0:26:29.879 like my runner up pick of the ones that I 0:26:29.880 --> 0:26:33.119 actually felt I would be totally fine if you were like, 0:26:33.160 --> 0:26:36.160 I want to take the Falcons against the Saints with 0:26:36.320 --> 0:26:39.280 Jameis Winston. I just feel like, you know, first of all, 0:26:39.280 --> 0:26:42.800 Winston just historically he's not great as a favorite, great 0:26:42.840 --> 0:26:45.040 as underdog because he's crazy and he just is going 0:26:45.119 --> 0:26:48.720 to throw the ball until they would catch up. The Falcons, 0:26:48.760 --> 0:26:50.919 off of by their defense, has been playing better. I 0:26:50.920 --> 0:26:53.199 don't hate the Falcons getting four and a half, but 0:26:53.640 --> 0:26:56.160 it's not one of my you know, I wouldn't push 0:26:56.160 --> 0:26:56.840 for it over any of. 0:26:56.960 --> 0:26:59.920 The Pro Football Focus Play the week is the first 0:27:00.040 --> 0:27:00.840 it's plus five. 0:27:01.560 --> 0:27:03.080 Yeah, it's four and a half for us. 0:27:03.080 --> 0:27:04.840 I don't really I keep on, but my argument to 0:27:04.920 --> 0:27:10.359 them was is it Winston you're fading or Taysom Hill? Yeah, 0:27:10.400 --> 0:27:12.960 because who's playing quarterback? But way do we know who's 0:27:13.000 --> 0:27:14.000 playing quarterback for them? 0:27:14.040 --> 0:27:14.240 Do we? 0:27:14.359 --> 0:27:17.480 Are we positive it's Jamis? Because if here Jamis fine, 0:27:17.480 --> 0:27:19.320 but they've got another option at quarterback. 0:27:19.560 --> 0:27:21.520 Yeah, but you know, if they were gonna do this, 0:27:21.680 --> 0:27:23.680 if they were gonna go to Taysom Hill, then they 0:27:23.800 --> 0:27:26.240 just why would they bring in Winston? Like the same 0:27:26.240 --> 0:27:28.359 thing with Bridgewater. You have Taysom Hill on your roster, 0:27:28.400 --> 0:27:30.360 if you're willing to turn it over to him, why 0:27:30.400 --> 0:27:32.720 are you bringing in an actual NFL. 0:27:32.520 --> 0:27:34.600 And why are they paying him what they're paying. 0:27:34.359 --> 0:27:36.480 Him because they think he's the future. 0:27:36.720 --> 0:27:39.600 I guess, well, now is your future because your quarterback's 0:27:39.600 --> 0:27:40.560 got a punctured lung. 0:27:41.119 --> 0:27:43.560 I get it. But that's why that the same thing 0:27:43.640 --> 0:27:45.840 last year with Bridgewater. I mean, what you know, I 0:27:46.119 --> 0:27:48.800 get it? Well, I think for me and again, this 0:27:49.119 --> 0:27:52.600 consensus spread is four and sixty three percent are still 0:27:52.600 --> 0:27:56.000 on Atlanta. That definitely was a game that I was like, Okay, 0:27:56.080 --> 0:27:58.680 maybe i'll talk about this. Frankly, I kind of thought 0:27:58.720 --> 0:28:01.399 there's no way you would go for it, so I. 0:28:01.520 --> 0:28:03.480 Want to go for it. I mean, I just figured you. 0:28:03.840 --> 0:28:05.640 I guess that was gonna be young because I don't. 0:28:05.800 --> 0:28:09.240 I have no real harsh feeling on your way. I 0:28:09.359 --> 0:28:12.080 just don't. I just think that it's a dangerous pick 0:28:12.160 --> 0:28:14.480 because of the Tasom Hill angle. I just I don't 0:28:14.480 --> 0:28:16.399 know who the quarterback is. If you told me that 0:28:16.440 --> 0:28:19.080 Tasom Hill was hurt and it was all Jamos, then 0:28:19.080 --> 0:28:22.320 I'd probably subscribe to it and go fine, ride the Falcons. Yeah, 0:28:22.359 --> 0:28:24.399 but it's not. I mean, they have a plan B 0:28:24.880 --> 0:28:27.320 that if Winston comes out and search Thorn picks, they 0:28:27.400 --> 0:28:29.320 got a guy who can play the quarterback spot at 0:28:29.359 --> 0:28:33.080 least competently. It scares me to go ahead. And it's 0:28:33.119 --> 0:28:35.520 a big rivalry game. I mean, these two teams hate 0:28:35.520 --> 0:28:36.200 each other. 0:28:36.280 --> 0:28:38.800 Right, Yeah, I just I don't know, man, I like 0:28:38.840 --> 0:28:40.640 the Saints. I hate betting against them. 0:28:40.640 --> 0:28:40.720 Now. 0:28:40.720 --> 0:28:43.560 I get it's not Drew Brees, but yeah, I don't. 0:28:43.600 --> 0:28:46.920 I don't really have a great feeling. I definitely lean 0:28:46.960 --> 0:28:48.840 the Falcons. And if I'm gonna go one way, it 0:28:48.920 --> 0:28:50.320 is with the Falcons. If you came in here and 0:28:50.320 --> 0:28:52.200 said I want the Saints, I'd say, no, I'm off 0:28:52.200 --> 0:28:55.120 that game. But you know, I do think it's gonna 0:28:55.120 --> 0:28:58.480 be Jamis, so to be fair, though, I think they're 0:28:58.480 --> 0:29:01.240 gonna mix in Hill a lot more than they would 0:29:01.280 --> 0:29:03.600 with Breeze. But I think the primary quarterback is gonna 0:29:03.600 --> 0:29:05.400 be Winston. But we'll put that one to the side. 0:29:05.440 --> 0:29:07.520 I'll recap it at the end when we are finalizing 0:29:07.560 --> 0:29:09.520 our five picks if we don't decide to use the 0:29:09.520 --> 0:29:12.320 bye week. Although tagging it through, I don't hate this 0:29:12.360 --> 0:29:14.360 week quite as much as I did before we got 0:29:14.360 --> 0:29:15.880 into it. But we can get through it. Let's go 0:29:15.920 --> 0:29:18.680 through the remaining games that we've gotten again. I have 0:29:18.800 --> 0:29:20.960 just written them down randomly. Don't read anything into if 0:29:20.960 --> 0:29:24.520 I say the favorite or whatever. First, the Bucks laying 0:29:24.680 --> 0:29:27.920 three and a half to the Rams in Tampa. This 0:29:27.960 --> 0:29:29.600 is Monday Night football, I believe, right. 0:29:29.680 --> 0:29:30.240 Yep, correct? 0:29:30.280 --> 0:29:33.200 How do you feel so at first? 0:29:33.280 --> 0:29:37.160 Guess it's gonna be a tough game for Tom Brady. Okay, 0:29:37.520 --> 0:29:40.640 so this is the Rams. Do what you have to 0:29:40.680 --> 0:29:43.760 do to beat Tampa. They're gonna rush and blitz the 0:29:43.800 --> 0:29:46.480 holy heck out of Brady and make him very uncomfortable. 0:29:46.480 --> 0:29:48.640 They're gonna make him move off of his spot. So 0:29:48.920 --> 0:29:51.080 on the other side, I don't think Tampa moves the 0:29:51.120 --> 0:29:53.360 ball much and scores much. So my question is what 0:29:53.400 --> 0:29:56.920 does Jared Goff do on the road against that Tampa defense. 0:29:57.480 --> 0:30:00.320 I don't like this Tampa defense at all. I gotta 0:30:00.440 --> 0:30:03.120 ride the Tampa defense. I would ride. I would take 0:30:03.120 --> 0:30:05.480 the three and a half points here and take the Rams. 0:30:05.800 --> 0:30:08.520 Yeah. If I'm forced to choose a side, it would 0:30:08.520 --> 0:30:11.040 be with the Rams. I mean, whitworth being down scares 0:30:11.080 --> 0:30:14.040 me because you know what GoF does under pressure. We 0:30:14.040 --> 0:30:17.800 have seen it a million times. I I feel like 0:30:17.840 --> 0:30:21.400 I could talk myself into either side of this game 0:30:21.440 --> 0:30:23.680 if I really had to, Like, I don't. 0:30:23.440 --> 0:30:25.080 Have it's a great game. It's a big game. 0:30:25.200 --> 0:30:27.160 Both it's a great game. Yes, that's true. It's a 0:30:27.160 --> 0:30:29.479 great game. I don't have a great lean on it, 0:30:29.560 --> 0:30:32.360 So it would be one that you know, you could 0:30:32.400 --> 0:30:34.080 talk me into it if you were like Dan, I 0:30:34.120 --> 0:30:36.280 feel great about the Rams, but I don't like it 0:30:36.280 --> 0:30:38.280 more than our picks. But yeah, I mean I guess 0:30:38.320 --> 0:30:41.560 that I would probably lean towards the Rams. But it's 0:30:41.640 --> 0:30:43.520 just kind of an ugly game. I don't really want it. 0:30:43.520 --> 0:30:46.760 How about the Bengals getting one and a half from 0:30:47.320 --> 0:30:48.720 Washington in Washington? 0:30:49.520 --> 0:30:51.600 I mean, if I had to go with it. I 0:30:51.640 --> 0:30:55.080 would take the Bengals. Yeah, but I mean, this is 0:30:55.200 --> 0:30:58.360 just this game and the Lions and the Panthers game. 0:30:59.320 --> 0:31:01.560 I'm not even gonna watch these games. They're so bad. 0:31:01.920 --> 0:31:04.240 It's just a horrific football games. 0:31:04.360 --> 0:31:06.440 I agree. I don't want any part of this. And 0:31:07.360 --> 0:31:09.840 by the way, this is another illness to Higgins miss 0:31:09.960 --> 0:31:13.040 practice with an illness. I have no idea if it's 0:31:13.080 --> 0:31:15.680 just an illness. A lot of times they like to specify, 0:31:15.720 --> 0:31:17.920 like Duke Johnson this week, this is a non COVID 0:31:18.000 --> 0:31:21.000 related illness. They have not specified that with Higgins. They 0:31:21.040 --> 0:31:23.800 have not specified that with Clyde Edwards Dulaire. So I'm 0:31:23.840 --> 0:31:26.320 not I don't know what's gonna happen. But yeah, this 0:31:26.360 --> 0:31:28.520 is a game where like I mean, I'll watch because 0:31:28.520 --> 0:31:30.160 I have to watch every game because I have to 0:31:30.160 --> 0:31:33.320 do a recap show for fantasy purposes. But I would 0:31:33.320 --> 0:31:35.720 not watch this game or lay any money on this game. 0:31:35.760 --> 0:31:37.960 I would just stay away from it. And again, same 0:31:38.000 --> 0:31:39.760 thing with the lines. Now I will say that the 0:31:39.800 --> 0:31:42.800 Lion's getting one and a half from the Panthers. There 0:31:42.800 --> 0:31:45.280 are so many variables in this stupid game. You've got 0:31:45.280 --> 0:31:48.000 Deonder Swift, who essentially has been declared out. Now, I mean, 0:31:48.040 --> 0:31:50.760 I don't know if it's he's unlikely to play with 0:31:50.840 --> 0:31:54.400 the concussion, that just game to light. Matthew Stafford is 0:31:54.600 --> 0:31:58.440 questionable with the thumb. Kenny Galladay was at practice yesterday, 0:31:58.520 --> 0:32:00.120 then there was a report he was at practice, and 0:32:00.160 --> 0:32:02.560 he wasn't that practice today, so nobody really knows. Meanwhile, 0:32:02.600 --> 0:32:06.400 Teddy Bridgewater is likely to sit just I I mean, 0:32:06.440 --> 0:32:08.400 can we just skip this game because nobody should be 0:32:08.400 --> 0:32:09.000 betting on this game? 0:32:09.120 --> 0:32:09.520 Right yep? 0:32:09.640 --> 0:32:12.280 Okay, very good. How about the Dolphins length three and 0:32:12.280 --> 0:32:14.040 a half to the Broncos in Denver? 0:32:14.280 --> 0:32:18.240 This is hard. I mean, this is I hate Drew Locke. 0:32:18.960 --> 0:32:21.880 Their offense looked so bad on the road against the Patriot, 0:32:21.920 --> 0:32:25.920 mean against the Raiders last week with four interceptions he 0:32:26.000 --> 0:32:27.120 threw or three interceptions. 0:32:27.160 --> 0:32:29.120 It was playing this game by the right. 0:32:29.240 --> 0:32:31.560 And so that's why I was like, well, ripping my play, 0:32:31.680 --> 0:32:33.920 look out for ripping. Okay, I mean is there that 0:32:33.960 --> 0:32:37.360 big of a difference between the ripping and Locke? I 0:32:37.720 --> 0:32:41.200 don't know. The quarterback play has been so bad. John 0:32:41.200 --> 0:32:44.320 Elway needs to stop drafting quarterbacks and let somebody else 0:32:44.360 --> 0:32:48.360 do it, because they can't pick quarterbacks saved life. It's embarrassing. 0:32:49.080 --> 0:32:52.600 It's the Broncos at home at altitude. I don't like Tua. 0:32:52.680 --> 0:32:55.720 Like you guys know. Their numbers are still bad offensively, 0:32:55.760 --> 0:32:57.160 but their defense is scoring. 0:32:56.920 --> 0:33:00.440 Especially offensively with Tua like, they have not played as 0:33:00.480 --> 0:33:01.520 well offensively, and. 0:33:01.480 --> 0:33:04.280 That was predictable. We knew. I said it they at 0:33:04.280 --> 0:33:06.120 the switch. I said, this is stupid. This is a 0:33:06.160 --> 0:33:08.000 bad move for their offense. But they're not doing it 0:33:08.040 --> 0:33:09.640 for their offense. They're doing it because I want to 0:33:09.680 --> 0:33:11.720 sell jerseys and may people think that they're going to 0:33:11.760 --> 0:33:14.240 be there. If I had to bet, I would take 0:33:14.240 --> 0:33:17.040 the home dog at three and a half. But is 0:33:17.040 --> 0:33:18.360 that what it is? It is three and a half, right, 0:33:18.400 --> 0:33:20.280 three and a half correct. I would take the three 0:33:20.320 --> 0:33:22.400 and a half for the hook, But I don't have 0:33:22.440 --> 0:33:24.960 a great feel because the Dolphins are the better team. 0:33:25.240 --> 0:33:27.760 Yeah, I lean towards the Dolphins if I had to 0:33:27.760 --> 0:33:31.000 go somewhere, just because I you know, the Broncos are awful, man, 0:33:31.120 --> 0:33:32.280 and that The one thing I will say is the 0:33:32.360 --> 0:33:36.680 Dolphins defense is legitimate like that. I mean, Brian Floores fantastic, 0:33:36.760 --> 0:33:38.760 like maybe Coach of the Year considering what he has 0:33:38.800 --> 0:33:41.800 done with that team right now. And the Broncos are 0:33:41.840 --> 0:33:45.240 just a mess. Man Like, they're a mess, and I 0:33:45.440 --> 0:33:47.600 don't really care if it's ripping or lock. By the way, 0:33:47.640 --> 0:33:50.440 I don't consider that a huge downgrade at this point 0:33:50.480 --> 0:33:54.120 in their careers. But this is what's funny to me, Matt. 0:33:54.440 --> 0:33:58.040 That is the most one sided game in our bet analyzer, 0:33:58.080 --> 0:33:59.880 and it's on the Dolphins at thine and a half 0:34:00.040 --> 0:34:01.920 eighty three percent, and that that is the side that 0:34:01.920 --> 0:34:04.320 I'm on. But I don't feel good. I as a 0:34:04.440 --> 0:34:07.480 general rule, I don't love betting against the Broncos. 0:34:07.760 --> 0:34:09.960 It's out in two. It's a warm weather team in 0:34:10.000 --> 0:34:12.279 cold weather conditions, yep. And all they do is run 0:34:12.360 --> 0:34:15.240 the football. So it's like if Lindsey can get free, 0:34:15.960 --> 0:34:18.279 it's I mean, the Dolphins have been living off of 0:34:18.280 --> 0:34:21.279 their special teams in defensive points. At some point that 0:34:21.360 --> 0:34:24.880 runs out, yep. So I don't like the Broncos defense. 0:34:24.920 --> 0:34:27.000 The Broncos give up what forty five points to the Raiders, 0:34:27.080 --> 0:34:30.640 whatever it was. I mean, it's a bad football team. 0:34:30.719 --> 0:34:33.920 But there's a lot of exterior conditions there outside of 0:34:33.920 --> 0:34:37.480 the Broncos players with altitude and weather and you know, 0:34:37.640 --> 0:34:40.400 cold and the Dolphins don't like playing. Look at their 0:34:40.440 --> 0:34:42.879 record in New England in December. Okay, it's not great, 0:34:43.000 --> 0:34:46.399 So it's tough to back the Dolphins there. 0:34:46.760 --> 0:34:50.319 Yeah, I think every point that you've made about why 0:34:50.320 --> 0:34:52.640 it is tough to back the Dolphins is legitimate. And 0:34:52.719 --> 0:34:55.960 I just can't back the Broncos under any circumstances, Like 0:34:56.320 --> 0:34:59.719 I just couldn't final game unless I missed one. The 0:34:59.840 --> 0:35:02.200 Charge laying eight and a half to the Jets in 0:35:02.239 --> 0:35:03.040 Los Angeles. 0:35:03.280 --> 0:35:05.359 Well, if it wasn't for that stupid haircut, I would 0:35:05.400 --> 0:35:07.319 say I'd go with the Chargers. But anybody that's gonna 0:35:07.360 --> 0:35:10.120 let the strength and conditioning coach cut their hair, I'm 0:35:10.239 --> 0:35:13.160 questioning the logic of where they are here with Justin Herbert. 0:35:13.200 --> 0:35:15.799 So this is the second podcast that I've done that 0:35:15.840 --> 0:35:19.680 has referenced feeling worse about Justin Herbert and the Chargers 0:35:20.160 --> 0:35:22.520 because of the haircut. So I really like that we're at. 0:35:22.680 --> 0:35:26.120 Not the haircut itself, it's who he had do the haircut. 0:35:26.880 --> 0:35:29.600 He asked his strength coach to cut his hair. I mean, 0:35:29.760 --> 0:35:33.440 his hair is his thing. Okay, that's the thing for 0:35:33.520 --> 0:35:36.320 the big guy with the flock with the locks and whatever, 0:35:36.360 --> 0:35:39.879 and that that's the surfer boy or Oregon like, that's him. 0:35:40.520 --> 0:35:43.080 To go ahead and cut the serial killer, you know, 0:35:43.200 --> 0:35:45.840 fade whatever you want to call that haircut and to 0:35:45.920 --> 0:35:47.600 have it be like, oh, I didn't care. I want 0:35:47.640 --> 0:35:49.720 to do something to I need to make a change. 0:35:49.719 --> 0:35:53.360 So it gave the Clippers to the strength coach justin dude, 0:35:53.640 --> 0:35:57.600 what's up? Man? Wow? So based on that Jets plus 0:35:57.680 --> 0:36:01.440 eight and a half, well, that. 0:36:01.400 --> 0:36:05.440 Is a scientific analysis. I think I'm more than willing 0:36:05.880 --> 0:36:08.000 to pass on this game at eight and a half. 0:36:08.040 --> 0:36:10.520 I think I would still take Chargers regardless of the 0:36:10.560 --> 0:36:13.120 hair guy. But it isn't something that I feel comfortable 0:36:13.480 --> 0:36:17.080 playing just because I mean maybe that was Joe Flacco's 0:36:17.320 --> 0:36:19.840 game of his life against the Patriots. But you know, 0:36:19.960 --> 0:36:22.520 if you do have if Paraman is going to play 0:36:22.520 --> 0:36:25.839 in this game, you do have Denzel Nims who is 0:36:25.960 --> 0:36:28.440 stepping up looking a little better. You've got Jamison Crowder's 0:36:28.600 --> 0:36:31.080 gonna play a full compliment of snaps, unlike what he 0:36:31.120 --> 0:36:33.120 did against the Patriots. I think they can at least 0:36:33.120 --> 0:36:36.919 score some points. Now, again, the Jets secondary, I mean, 0:36:37.080 --> 0:36:40.040 their cornerback group is a joke right now. Brian Poole 0:36:40.080 --> 0:36:43.360 is just placed on my or you know, they cut 0:36:43.600 --> 0:36:46.440 Pierre to Seer, you know. Plus Austin is out, so 0:36:46.960 --> 0:36:50.080 I don't understand how you're ever gonna stop the Chargers. 0:36:50.080 --> 0:36:52.080 But it doesn't really matter. I don't really want to 0:36:52.080 --> 0:36:55.360 go near it. Okay, So let's recap Matt. This is interesting, 0:36:55.360 --> 0:36:57.719 and again I'm going to I'll tweet it out and 0:36:57.719 --> 0:36:59.400 Matt will tweet it out whether or not we decide 0:36:59.440 --> 0:37:01.400 to use one of our weeks because we have to 0:37:01.480 --> 0:37:03.799 use two over the next six weeks. Now, I think, Matt, 0:37:03.840 --> 0:37:06.720 we have said that we're thinking of using one over Thanksgiving. Correct, 0:37:06.840 --> 0:37:08.319 that's just kind of what you want to do, So 0:37:08.360 --> 0:37:10.640 we will have that one built in, so we might 0:37:10.719 --> 0:37:11.960 use this one. I will let you know. But these 0:37:12.000 --> 0:37:14.560 are a leans, certainly the Chiefs for the contest, at 0:37:14.600 --> 0:37:16.680 least the Chiefs getting minus six and a half to 0:37:16.719 --> 0:37:18.879 the Raiders. That one is a lock in. It's much 0:37:18.960 --> 0:37:20.759 higher now, so it's gonna go high. And you've heard 0:37:20.800 --> 0:37:22.800 our thoughts on that one. The Titans plus six and 0:37:22.840 --> 0:37:24.719 a half against the Ravens. Again, that is moving in 0:37:24.760 --> 0:37:27.560 the other direction right now. So we like the Titans there, 0:37:27.800 --> 0:37:30.640 We like the Jaguars gross getting ten and a half 0:37:30.840 --> 0:37:32.960 from the Steelers. That's still where the line is last 0:37:32.960 --> 0:37:34.640 time I checked everywhere. So if you can get that, 0:37:34.920 --> 0:37:37.040 I really do feel like this is just a letdown 0:37:37.080 --> 0:37:39.600 spot for the Steelers. So then we've got a few 0:37:39.600 --> 0:37:42.200 other games, Matt, that we've talked about, really three unless 0:37:42.239 --> 0:37:43.880 you want to talk about the Falcons getting four and 0:37:43.920 --> 0:37:46.440 a half from the Saints, which I don't think you do. 0:37:46.440 --> 0:37:48.280 Do you like the Colts lank two and a half 0:37:48.360 --> 0:37:50.960 to the Packers, and the Patriots lank two and a 0:37:51.000 --> 0:37:53.279 half to the Texans? And I kind of liked the 0:37:53.320 --> 0:37:57.880 Cowboys getting seven and a half from from the Vikings. 0:37:57.960 --> 0:38:01.480 So of those, do you have a favorite one that 0:38:01.520 --> 0:38:02.800 you like? I mean to assume it's one of the 0:38:02.840 --> 0:38:03.879 two that you put out there. 0:38:06.320 --> 0:38:11.600 Boy, is there I would prefer I would, oh gosh. 0:38:11.040 --> 0:38:12.640 Yeah, it's the Patriots saying too and a half to 0:38:12.680 --> 0:38:13.160 the Texans. 0:38:13.440 --> 0:38:15.319 I want to the Patriots, but I'm gonna get called 0:38:15.320 --> 0:38:15.960 a homer for it. 0:38:16.120 --> 0:38:17.840 No, I think that's my FA I think I like 0:38:17.880 --> 0:38:19.960 that one too, Matt. I think if if if you 0:38:20.000 --> 0:38:22.040 were like Dan, what game do you like of those? 0:38:22.800 --> 0:38:25.000 Once we start talking about a little bit more, I 0:38:25.000 --> 0:38:29.480 don't know, man, like just the Patriots now that they're 0:38:29.520 --> 0:38:31.840 kind of back into it a little bit. And I 0:38:32.160 --> 0:38:34.799 will say that I do think that a couple of 0:38:34.840 --> 0:38:38.120 things for the Patriots. Number one, I think it's very possible. 0:38:38.120 --> 0:38:40.600 And I think you mentioned this that it's possible that 0:38:40.680 --> 0:38:44.480 Cam as bad as he looked when he returned from COVID, 0:38:44.600 --> 0:38:47.120 like he could have still been as much as he 0:38:47.200 --> 0:38:50.759 said it was asymptomatic. Like you know from personal experience, Matt, 0:38:50.800 --> 0:38:52.520 that it messes with you. 0:38:52.600 --> 0:38:55.279 The brain fog is real. The brain fog is is 0:38:55.320 --> 0:38:57.759 a thing nobody wants to acknowledge because you can't measure it. 0:38:57.760 --> 0:39:00.600 It's not a fever, it's not a know, a cough, 0:39:01.120 --> 0:39:05.560 it's just you don't feel right. And I agree, I agree. 0:39:05.320 --> 0:39:08.080 Yeah, And he has played better. I mean, he still 0:39:08.120 --> 0:39:10.239 is not a great passer. But again I do think 0:39:10.239 --> 0:39:14.520 that the you know, emergence of Jacoby Myers is a 0:39:14.560 --> 0:39:18.120 big deal. He is playing great. I think Damien Harris 0:39:18.239 --> 0:39:21.640 looks great. I like how they involved Rex Burkhead. I mean, 0:39:22.080 --> 0:39:25.239 I'm gaining a little confidence in this team. And conversely, 0:39:25.560 --> 0:39:28.680 I have very little comments in the Texans. So if 0:39:28.680 --> 0:39:30.719 you're giving it underfield, no Matt. I kind of like 0:39:30.760 --> 0:39:32.520 that game more and more so I do wanting to 0:39:32.600 --> 0:39:33.920 go with that one. If you ate not a Homer, 0:39:34.040 --> 0:39:35.320 I'll make that pick, yeah. 0:39:35.200 --> 0:39:37.600 Because look it's the Look at the Texans against the run. 0:39:37.640 --> 0:39:39.719 Look at the numbers they give up. They just give 0:39:39.800 --> 0:39:44.439 up huge gash chunk plays yep in the run game. 0:39:44.520 --> 0:39:48.200 So all right, So, I mean, I won't quote unquote 0:39:48.239 --> 0:39:50.880 stand on a table, but I will say that I 0:39:50.960 --> 0:39:54.080 do like, particularly the Cowboys getting seven and a half, 0:39:54.160 --> 0:39:56.200 okay from the Vikings, because I do think that they're 0:39:56.200 --> 0:39:57.680 going to come out of the buy. I think this 0:39:57.760 --> 0:40:00.000 is going to be a letdown game for the Vikings 0:40:00.040 --> 0:40:03.200 coming off that big divisional win. I'm not saying that 0:40:03.239 --> 0:40:05.920 the Cowboys are gonna win, but I do like them 0:40:05.920 --> 0:40:07.440 to keep this close enough too. 0:40:07.760 --> 0:40:09.919 It's fading the Vikings. You know, I'm gonna run it. 0:40:09.880 --> 0:40:12.640 So you're good, okay. So if we do go with it, 0:40:13.000 --> 0:40:14.640 we like the Chiefs mind of six and a half 0:40:15.000 --> 0:40:16.799 to the Raiders, the Titans getting six and a half 0:40:16.840 --> 0:40:19.359 from the Ravens, the Jaguars getting ten and a half 0:40:19.360 --> 0:40:21.399 from the Steelers, the Patriots laying two and a half 0:40:21.440 --> 0:40:23.680 to the Texans, and the Cowboys getting seven and a 0:40:23.680 --> 0:40:25.640 half to the Vikings. I don't know, Matt. I do 0:40:25.719 --> 0:40:28.000 not hate this, Okay. I mean that probably means we'd 0:40:28.000 --> 0:40:31.080 go on five. But I don't necessarily hate this. So 0:40:31.160 --> 0:40:33.640 let's let it marinate for a little bit and then 0:40:33.719 --> 0:40:35.960 let's see. I will say, if Devanta Adams turns out 0:40:36.000 --> 0:40:39.680 to be out, I would definitely consider swapping the Colts 0:40:39.719 --> 0:40:42.399 in for the Cowboys in that sense. We can talk 0:40:42.400 --> 0:40:44.520 about that because I really think that that is a huge, 0:40:44.920 --> 0:40:47.880 huge letdown for their offense, even if when Allen's started returned. 0:40:47.920 --> 0:40:50.600 So all right, you feel, you know, maybe we'll think 0:40:50.640 --> 0:40:52.319 about it. We'll talk about it then a little more. 0:40:52.760 --> 0:40:55.040 Yeah, let's do it, right, I'm good, good enough for me. 0:40:55.239 --> 0:40:57.960 All right. That is it for today's show. Thanks everybody 0:40:58.000 --> 0:41:00.879 for stopping by. Reminder listen to The Daily Juice, Matt's 0:41:00.920 --> 0:41:03.840 daily podcast, which is great. Tune into the YouTube channel 0:41:03.880 --> 0:41:08.320 YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros for Matt's live stream 0:41:08.400 --> 0:41:12.399 on Sunday mornings eleven a m. To noon Eastern time. 0:41:12.480 --> 0:41:14.640 I will give Matt my props. I remembered last week 0:41:14.680 --> 0:41:18.759 both of them hit right, Yes, excellent. I will give 0:41:18.840 --> 0:41:20.760 make sure I will give Matt my props on Saturday 0:41:20.840 --> 0:41:23.160 night so I don't leaven hanging again. It's a great time. 0:41:23.239 --> 0:41:26.359 So thanks everybody for listening for this podcast. We will 0:41:26.360 --> 0:41:27.600 talk to you next week.