1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:12,400 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Day ba Q podcast. Good morning, 3 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 2: It's Wednesday, the eighth of October. I'm Caroline, hepkat in 4 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:15,760 Speaker 2: London and. 5 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:18,840 Speaker 3: I'm Stephen Caroline Paris. Coming up today. The price of 6 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 3: gold smashes through four thousand dollars announce for the first 7 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 3: time as US government shutdown fears fueled as safe haven rally. 8 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 2: With just hours to go until Immanuel Macron's self imposed deadline, 9 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 2: French opposition parties show little appetite for a deal. 10 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:40,280 Speaker 3: Plus scoring big Ronaldo becomes the world's first football billionaire 11 00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:42,280 Speaker 3: following a huge Saudi deal. 12 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:44,919 Speaker 2: Let's start with the roundup of our top stories. 13 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:48,320 Speaker 3: The price of gold has topped four thousand dollars, announced 14 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:51,080 Speaker 3: for the first time in history, as concerns over the 15 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:54,680 Speaker 3: US economy and the government shutdown added fresh momentum to 16 00:00:54,760 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 3: a scorching rally. Uncertainties over global trade, geopolitical tensions, concerns 17 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 3: about Fed independence and to move away from the dollar 18 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 3: have also helped to fuel the rise in bullion, which 19 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:09,000 Speaker 3: traded it less than half its current value just two 20 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:12,600 Speaker 3: years ago. Angelina Li, chief Investment Officer for Asia, in 21 00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 3: the Middle East at Saint James's place, what we are. 22 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 4: Really seeing is a flight to safety. What we tend 23 00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 4: to talk about gold as a board indicator for the 24 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 4: fear and greed index, actually because there is no cash 25 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:29,520 Speaker 4: flow attached to gold, and for a organization sash Asas 26 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:34,200 Speaker 4: that believes in valuation and fundamentals as the basis, it's 27 00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 4: extremely difficult to value something like a gold which does 28 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 4: not have cash flows attached. 29 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:42,479 Speaker 3: To that's Angela Lai speaking there. Jumps in the price 30 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 3: of gold typically track broader economic and political stress. The 31 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 3: metal climbed above one thousand dollars an ounce in the 32 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:51,960 Speaker 3: aftermath of the global financial crisis, two thousand dollars during 33 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 3: the COVID pandemic, and three thousand dollars as the Trump 34 00:01:54,960 --> 00:02:00,280 Speaker 3: administration's taroff plans ripples through global markets. In March, in. 35 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:04,040 Speaker 2: France, there are just hours to go until Emmanuel Macon's 36 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:07,480 Speaker 2: deadline for parties to agree to work together on a budget. 37 00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 2: Opposition parties are making demands, including their choice for prime minister, 38 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 2: fresh elections, and in some cases, the president's own resignation. 39 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:20,160 Speaker 2: The outgoing Prime Minister Sebastia Lecornu will continue meetings with 40 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:24,919 Speaker 2: political leaders. Today, Olivier four of the Socialist Party told 41 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 2: France Too television that their party wants the prime minister 42 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 2: from their ranks and not new elections. 43 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 5: I want the left to governor. I don't just want 44 00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:41,880 Speaker 5: to be obsessed with what now. Also obsesses the right, 45 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:46,080 Speaker 5: that is presidential election, as if there were nothing else. 46 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:48,959 Speaker 5: And the French people who see this shadow play, this 47 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 5: street leader day after day, are saying to themselves, are 48 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 5: you finally going to talk about us left? 49 00:02:56,320 --> 00:03:00,360 Speaker 2: Socialist Party leader Olivier four, speaking there via a trans Later, 50 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 2: President macarl gave Sebastian Lacorner until this evening to form 51 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:06,960 Speaker 2: an agreement with other parties. The left and the center 52 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 2: right have ruled out joining forces in a unity cabinet, 53 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:14,600 Speaker 2: but sources have told Bloomberg that the Republican Party might 54 00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:18,919 Speaker 2: be willing to refrain from toppling a Socialist led government 55 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:22,120 Speaker 2: if the far left is kept out of power. 56 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:27,640 Speaker 3: Elon Musk's artificial intelligence startup XAI, is increasing its ongoing 57 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:30,919 Speaker 3: funding round to twenty billion dollars in the latest leg 58 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 3: of the AI spending boom. Bloomberg has learned that XAI 59 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 3: is accessing more financing than initially planned, including two billion 60 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 3: dollars from Nvidia to finance chips for its Colossus two project. 61 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 3: It comes despite billionaire Elon Musk posting on X in 62 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:49,320 Speaker 3: September that he was not raising any capital right now. 63 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:52,480 Speaker 3: The massive financing is just the latest for the tech 64 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:56,960 Speaker 3: sector this year. Something JP Morgan CEO Jamie Diamond compared 65 00:03:57,000 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 3: to the dot com bubble, it's all. 66 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 6: Our shows, all ever going to be totally spent. I 67 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 6: think when you look at big tech, like tech that 68 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:06,760 Speaker 6: happens like this, and you're going to look at cars, 69 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 6: you look at television, you click at Internet, big money's 70 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 6: got spent. There were a lot of losers, a lot 71 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:15,480 Speaker 6: of winners. In total. It was productive. So take the 72 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:17,480 Speaker 6: even take the Internet bubble and remember that blew up 73 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:19,880 Speaker 6: and matter p I can united by the name one 74 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 6: hundred companies that were worth fifty billion dollars and disappeared. 75 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:27,279 Speaker 6: But out of it came a Facebook, YouTube, Google. 76 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 2: You know. 77 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 6: So there will be some real big companies with real 78 00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 6: big success. It will work despite the fact that not 79 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:35,599 Speaker 6: everyone invested is going to have a great investment return. 80 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 3: Jamie Diamond was speaking to Bloomberg at JP Morgan's Tech 81 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:42,159 Speaker 3: Stars conference. Despite the optimism many you're looking at the 82 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 3: trillions of dollars pledged to AI infrastructure and asking relationships 83 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:50,279 Speaker 3: are too circular. Today's Bloomberg Big Take looks at the 84 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:53,360 Speaker 3: AI race, with one analyst telling them Sam Altman has 85 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:56,159 Speaker 3: the power to crash the global economy for a decade 86 00:04:56,640 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 3: or take us all to the Promised Land. 87 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 2: Our teams form the US Cutter and Israel are set 88 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:07,440 Speaker 2: together in Egypt for final negotiations to end the war 89 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:12,280 Speaker 2: in Gaza. Bloomberg understands that officials including close Netanyahu advisor 90 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:13,520 Speaker 2: Ron Dermer. 91 00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:14,799 Speaker 7: And US Special end voice. 92 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 2: Steve Whitkoff are expected to take part in negotiations. Israeli 93 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:23,400 Speaker 2: opposition leader Yaala Pid says he's hoping for an end 94 00:05:23,400 --> 00:05:25,680 Speaker 2: to the conflict, a war. 95 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 8: That is going nowhere, hostages that are slowly dying, and 96 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 8: of course the suffering Gaza that everybody in his right 97 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:38,280 Speaker 8: mind cares about. Children should not die ins wars. So 98 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:40,520 Speaker 8: for everybody's sake, we pray for. 99 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 2: This doing yeah, Lapid. They're speaking to Sky News. Hamas, 100 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:49,360 Speaker 2: spokesperson for Ze bar Room, said a permanency spar and 101 00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 2: withdraw all of Israeli troops must be central to a deal. 102 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:57,080 Speaker 2: During a televised address on Qatar based broadcast at Al Jazeera. 103 00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 2: Qatar's Prime Minister Shake Mohammad been Abdul Rahman Altani and 104 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:05,840 Speaker 2: President Trump's son in law Jared Kushner are also expected 105 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:07,400 Speaker 2: to attend those talks. 106 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:11,400 Speaker 3: The gap between the wealthy and the average British worker 107 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 3: is too large even for a lifetime of savings to bridge. 108 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:18,960 Speaker 3: The Resolution Foundation think tank found a typical full time 109 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:21,599 Speaker 3: employee you would need to set aside around fifty two 110 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:25,479 Speaker 3: years worth of pay to reach the top ten percent poombergs. 111 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 9: James Wilcock has more. If you work hard, can you 112 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 9: get ahead? The Resolution Foundation say the answer is clear, 113 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 9: not any more. Their research says in Britain, since two 114 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:40,080 Speaker 9: thousand and eight, if you owned wealth, you saw far 115 00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:44,120 Speaker 9: more gained than from a paycheck. They add, the intergenerational 116 00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:46,680 Speaker 9: wealth gap between people in their thirties and people in 117 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:48,159 Speaker 9: their sixties has. 118 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:49,640 Speaker 7: Doubled in that time period. 119 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 9: Taxing that wealth has become a political issue, with those 120 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 9: on the left pushing chance of Rachel Reeves to do 121 00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:58,599 Speaker 9: more to bounce the scales. 122 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 7: In London. James Walcock Bloomberg Radio. 123 00:07:02,080 --> 00:07:04,360 Speaker 2: And those are our top stories for you this morning. 124 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:07,480 Speaker 2: Looking at the markets, spot gold is now trading up 125 00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 2: one percent again this morning four thousand and twenty six dollars. Stocks, 126 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:15,440 Speaker 2: though seeing more declines, are from record high, as it 127 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 2: must be said MSCI Asia Pacific indexes down six tenths 128 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 2: of one percent. Stop futures for Europe are also just 129 00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 2: flat this morning. S and P five hundred EMNI futures 130 00:07:27,200 --> 00:07:29,800 Speaker 2: edging upwards a tenth of one percent, very dally saying 131 00:07:29,800 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 2: the stock market feels frothy. Mainland, China and South Korean 132 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 2: markets closed for holidays today. The kiwis dropped. We had 133 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:39,920 Speaker 2: a fifty basis point RBNZ, a raight cut. Ten year 134 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:43,160 Speaker 2: treasury yields are also steady this morning, trading at four 135 00:07:43,200 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 2: point one two percent. Those are the markets. 136 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 3: In a moment. Will bring you more on goals, Glittering 137 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 3: ron plus wear next for Ammanual Macro, and some reporting 138 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:55,760 Speaker 3: from our Portugal bureau chief that you won't want to miss. 139 00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 3: But another story we've been reading this morning. I don't 140 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:01,480 Speaker 3: know how much time you've spent to analyzing or parsing 141 00:08:01,520 --> 00:08:03,720 Speaker 3: Taylor Swift's new album, but you'd be pleased to know 142 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 3: that Jason Bailey from Bloomberg Opinion has been on. 143 00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 7: The case as well. 144 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 3: He's been looking a bit at the numbers, which are 145 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 3: very positive about the album drop as well, but also 146 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 3: the mixed reviews, so positive from some legacy publications, but 147 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 3: some mixed reception online as well, which is an interesting 148 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:25,920 Speaker 3: phenomenon because of the incredibly I don't know, vociferous as 149 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:30,120 Speaker 3: the word support of Taylor Swift that you can find 150 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 3: almost everywhere on the internet, and also the risks of 151 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 3: saying anything bad about Taylor Swift and the potential for 152 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:37,640 Speaker 3: being canceled as a result. 153 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 2: She's a billionaire, she's just come off the smash eras tool, 154 00:08:43,640 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 2: she's got her own music catalog back, just got engaged obviously, 155 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,480 Speaker 2: you know, she's powering ahead. 156 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:53,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, and lots going on and plenty 157 00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:55,800 Speaker 3: of opinions to be shared apparently about it. So Jason's 158 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:58,000 Speaker 3: been digging into sort of the release strategy and whether 159 00:08:58,040 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 3: it was right to put the whole album out of 160 00:08:59,880 --> 00:09:02,240 Speaker 3: the same time with the video for the Fate of 161 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:06,360 Speaker 3: Ophelia and the launch watch party as well. Yeah, may 162 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:08,199 Speaker 3: perhaps there was a you know, not it wasn't the 163 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:10,679 Speaker 3: traditional playbook for how you know big new releases are 164 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:13,520 Speaker 3: done now Courtela Swift, as we know, forges our own 165 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 3: path and so many things so great. Read this morning 166 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 3: bloomberg dot com for his last opinion. Then we'll put 167 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:19,560 Speaker 3: a link to it in our podcast show notes. 168 00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 2: Okay, well, let's think about what's happening in the market. 169 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 2: Is the spot price of gold smashing through four thousand 170 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 2: dollars an ounce for the very first time ever. That 171 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 2: is a jump of more than fifty percent this year. 172 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:33,760 Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Market's live stash this Mark Crowndfield joins us. 173 00:09:33,760 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 7: Now for more on this mark. Come on. 174 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 2: There are so many superlatives about this. Put it into context. 175 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:41,200 Speaker 2: How much has gold rallied? 176 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:44,520 Speaker 10: Yeah, I think. Well, one of the exciting things, apart 177 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:47,200 Speaker 10: from as you say that that fifty percent jump, is 178 00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:50,400 Speaker 10: the speed with which it covered the last one thousand 179 00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:55,000 Speaker 10: dollars in price. So between three thousand to four thousand, 180 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 10: you did that in around seven months, which is by 181 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:03,240 Speaker 10: far the quickest the various stages of rarely that the 182 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 10: gold has had over its life, that is certainly the 183 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:08,680 Speaker 10: quickest it's covered the price of one thousand dollars so 184 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 10: very impressive, much quicker than it was between two and 185 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:15,680 Speaker 10: three thousand, for example. So yeah, just around a seven 186 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:19,360 Speaker 10: month rally, and you would have earned around one thousand 187 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:21,480 Speaker 10: dollars if you'd have been involved in gold at that time. 188 00:10:21,559 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 10: So that's something to take into although you would have 189 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:26,360 Speaker 10: done even better if you'd have been in silver. That's 190 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 10: really about sixty percent this year. 191 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 3: Interesting, why, I mean, is the source question, why are 192 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 3: we under the stage. 193 00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:37,719 Speaker 10: It's a lot to do with what other currencies are 194 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 10: doing or not doing, and also the geopolitics. Several things 195 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 10: have fallen into place that support gold at the moment, 196 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 10: so I think you must never forget though people will 197 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 10: describe gold as a metal, it's really a currency because 198 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:52,439 Speaker 10: it is exchangeable. You can actually take a gold coin 199 00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 10: and you can get cash for it at any time. 200 00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 10: And so what we have at the moment is a 201 00:10:57,440 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 10: situation where the euro has a French problem. So it's 202 00:11:00,360 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 10: not so popular that the yen, as you know, has 203 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:04,600 Speaker 10: been extremely weak. I'm sure you've been talking about that 204 00:11:04,640 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 10: a lot as well, and it's just got weaker with 205 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 10: this potential new female prime minister coming in. The Pound 206 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 10: is a bit underwhelming as well. It's got its own issues. 207 00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 10: So there are several major currencies. In New Zealand currency 208 00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:18,680 Speaker 10: is getting battered today with the rate cut. So within 209 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:21,680 Speaker 10: the G ten space, the competitors to gold are not 210 00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:24,560 Speaker 10: having a great time. Even the dollar is losing it. 211 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:27,200 Speaker 10: It's still the largest currency by reserve managers, but that 212 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:30,360 Speaker 10: share is falling, so even the dollars being undermined a bit. 213 00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:33,200 Speaker 10: So all of that supports reasons for being in gold. 214 00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:36,680 Speaker 10: Then you have the general geopolitical situation, which to a 215 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:39,760 Speaker 10: lot of investors looks more unstable this year than it 216 00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 10: has for many many years. Again that's a positive for gold, 217 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 10: and the low interest rate environment is another thing as well. 218 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 10: Gold generally does well when interest rates are on a 219 00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:54,520 Speaker 10: downtrend in major countries. So all of those things put 220 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:57,079 Speaker 10: gold in a good position. It may well have got 221 00:11:57,080 --> 00:11:59,319 Speaker 10: out of control. It may be there's too much speculation 222 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:02,160 Speaker 10: in the very short it's gone too far, but certainly 223 00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 10: there are tangible reasons why you can see gold is 224 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:09,280 Speaker 10: being seen as a very good haven in this environment. 225 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, and at times of stress that is 226 00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 2: often the case. But as you point out, where does 227 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 2: it go from here? And there are lots of views. 228 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 2: I mean, from Bridgewater's Ray Dalio to Cis Sales, Ken Griffin, 229 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:23,080 Speaker 2: the Goldman Sachs forecast at the end of next year. 230 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:25,199 Speaker 2: There are lots of views on the trajectory. 231 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:28,840 Speaker 10: The biggest risk to it in the near term is 232 00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 10: that it's become another momentum place, something like tech stocks 233 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:36,079 Speaker 10: in America and around the world. So if you look 234 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:38,840 Speaker 10: at what macro traders are doing at the moment, some 235 00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 10: of their biggest positions are likely to be long of 236 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:46,760 Speaker 10: AI themes, long of gold. They probably were short US 237 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:49,840 Speaker 10: dollar that's starting to reverse a bit now, and so 238 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:53,360 Speaker 10: those kind of positions have probably got very large, and 239 00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:55,679 Speaker 10: when they turn, they're probably going to turn together. So 240 00:12:55,760 --> 00:12:58,800 Speaker 10: if we see a sharp correction, let's say this earning 241 00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:01,400 Speaker 10: season is not as good as expected in the United States, 242 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 10: the one that's just started, we got to turn in 243 00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:06,240 Speaker 10: the stock market there, you will probably see that gold 244 00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 10: will follow because people who have similar positions will need 245 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:12,920 Speaker 10: to make up piano losses because of what's happening in 246 00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 10: a different esset class. So that's the biggest risk to 247 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:18,640 Speaker 10: gold in the short term. The other the fact is 248 00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:20,520 Speaker 10: like geopolitical risk that's probably not going to go away 249 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:23,600 Speaker 10: in the short term. Other currencies would need to prove 250 00:13:23,640 --> 00:13:26,200 Speaker 10: themselves to be a lot better to get people to 251 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:28,320 Speaker 10: give up their gold too. So if there's a sudden 252 00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:32,080 Speaker 10: dramatic change in Europe where France looks a lot better place, 253 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:34,880 Speaker 10: Europe's going to extact together and suddenly the euros arey strong, 254 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:36,280 Speaker 10: that would hurt gold as well. 255 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:39,640 Speaker 7: Very interesting. Yeah, the risks and rewards. 256 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:42,200 Speaker 2: And Mark Cranfield, thanks for being with us Spoompeg's market's 257 00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:43,000 Speaker 2: life strategist. 258 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:46,600 Speaker 3: Well, we'reccounting to the next political deadline. Here in France 259 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:49,040 Speaker 3: is outgoing Prime Minister sob As Jenna Carn who tries 260 00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:52,040 Speaker 3: to build support for his budget plans. President Macron has 261 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:55,400 Speaker 3: given him until this evening to make progress. Are Managing 262 00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:58,280 Speaker 3: editor for European Economics and Government, Band Sales joins us 263 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:01,840 Speaker 3: now for more ban good morning to astender money meeting 264 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:05,240 Speaker 3: the Socialist party leadership today. Are they the key to 265 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:06,959 Speaker 3: his success in this mission? 266 00:14:07,640 --> 00:14:07,880 Speaker 6: Yeah? 267 00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 7: They really are. 268 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 11: The way the kind of complicated mathematics of the of 269 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 11: the French Parliament works out. Macran's weak centrist group has 270 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:23,320 Speaker 11: got a relatively and I use that word advisedly, a 271 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 11: relatively stable alliance with the center right Republicans. They have 272 00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 11: got the far right National Rally of Marine depenn in 273 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:36,080 Speaker 11: fairly entrenched opposition, and the key to forming a majority 274 00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:39,800 Speaker 11: is to persuade the Socialists to break away from the 275 00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:44,640 Speaker 11: far left group and join a kind of centrist alliance. 276 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 7: But so far they failed to. 277 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:50,080 Speaker 2: Do it well. Some parties are already preparing for National 278 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:53,280 Speaker 2: Assembly elections. How likely do you think that that is 279 00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:56,400 Speaker 2: out of this point, It's pretty likely. 280 00:14:56,840 --> 00:14:59,600 Speaker 11: The basic situation is that none of the options look 281 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 11: good for MACRN. To get the Socialists on board, He's 282 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 11: almost certainly going to have to compromise on some key 283 00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 11: elements of his platform, whether that means raising taxes or 284 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:13,960 Speaker 11: rolling back his pension reform something like that, which would 285 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:17,560 Speaker 11: be a major retreat for MACRN. But if he doesn't 286 00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:21,280 Speaker 11: do that, calling an election for the Parliament it risks 287 00:15:21,320 --> 00:15:24,200 Speaker 11: making things worse for him. The National Rally is most 288 00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 11: likely to gain in that situation, but he's really kind 289 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 11: of running out of options to try and find other 290 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:34,160 Speaker 11: people who can put together a functioning government, just because 291 00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:36,080 Speaker 11: the parliamentary match is so complicated. 292 00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 3: Some of Macron's close allies also appear to be keen 293 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:41,840 Speaker 3: to distance themselves from the president. You mentioned the pension 294 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:45,440 Speaker 3: reforms there, it's been hugely controversial, and another former prime minister, 295 00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 3: Elizabeth Bonn, coming out saying that she's in favor of 296 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:51,960 Speaker 3: suspending the pension reforms now, which is a certain change 297 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:54,520 Speaker 3: in her position from when she was in the Macron 298 00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:57,240 Speaker 3: when she was prime minister. She's still a minister in 299 00:15:57,280 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 3: the outgoing cabinet now. Does all of this add to 300 00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:04,480 Speaker 3: the sense that Macron really is a lame duck president now, 301 00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 3: even though he has eighteen months left on his term. 302 00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:12,320 Speaker 11: By any standard measure, Macron is definitely a lame duck 303 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 11: and he probably has been for a year or so now, 304 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 11: since since the since the parliamentary elections last summer which 305 00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 11: triggered this this gridlock. That said, Macron is an exceptional politician, 306 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:34,120 Speaker 11: and he has been extremely active and quite effective on 307 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:38,080 Speaker 11: the international stage over the last year or so, particularly 308 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:40,560 Speaker 11: the last seven or eight months since since Trump returned 309 00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 11: to power. He's got a relationship with Donald Trump. Relationship 310 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:46,400 Speaker 11: with Donald Trump are one of the fundamental assets in 311 00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:48,440 Speaker 11: the world in which we live. So he's you know, 312 00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:51,640 Speaker 11: he's been effective, but his ability to shape domestic politics 313 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 11: is extremely limited and is extremely popular, so we're very 314 00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:58,480 Speaker 11: much in the countdown, like the final chapter of the 315 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 11: Macron presidency, that's for sure. 316 00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:03,680 Speaker 2: Okay, Ben's a very interesting moment. 317 00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:05,200 Speaker 7: Then in French politics. 318 00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 2: Ben Sills are managing editor for European Economy and Government. 319 00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 2: Thank you, stay with us. More from Bloomberg DAYBA Cup 320 00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 2: coming up after this. Now, prolific goal scorer Cristiano Ronaldo 321 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:22,160 Speaker 2: has done something no other footballer has managed. He has 322 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:26,760 Speaker 2: become a billionaire according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, thanks 323 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:30,199 Speaker 2: to a new playing contract with Saudi Arabia's Al Nassa. 324 00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:33,560 Speaker 2: A little earlier, I spoke to our Portugal bureau chief, 325 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:36,440 Speaker 2: Sofia Auta e Costa, and I began by talking to 326 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 2: her about Ronaldo's enormous success on and off the pitch 327 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:43,959 Speaker 2: during a glittering career of more than twenty years, and 328 00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:48,399 Speaker 2: how he came to become football's first billionaire player. 329 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:51,360 Speaker 1: Yes, hugely successful on the pitch, I mean he has 330 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:57,040 Speaker 1: played for Europe's biggest teams, most famously Manchester United. 331 00:17:57,119 --> 00:17:58,400 Speaker 7: He was very happy there. 332 00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:02,480 Speaker 1: He made his name there, work very closely with Sir 333 00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 1: Alex Ferguson. And then his record transfer to Real Madrid 334 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:09,840 Speaker 1: it was one of the biggest transfers in history at 335 00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 1: the time, and then to Javentus, so a big Italian team. 336 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:15,880 Speaker 7: But I'm sitting here in Portugal. 337 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 1: I do know. 338 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:16,880 Speaker 7: Just for the. 339 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:21,360 Speaker 1: National team he's been incredibly important. He's still the captain 340 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:25,040 Speaker 1: at forty years old, which is an incredible achievement. He's 341 00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:30,240 Speaker 1: scoring in every single game that Portugal has played recently 342 00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:33,199 Speaker 1: in qualifications for the World Cup in the US, so 343 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:35,240 Speaker 1: he's still very much at the top of his game. 344 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:37,440 Speaker 1: He's not won a World Cup. I think that kind 345 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:39,840 Speaker 1: of hurts him a little bit. He did win the 346 00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:43,720 Speaker 1: Euros in twenty sixteen for Portugal, but if we're talking 347 00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 1: about competition with Messi, that's one where the Argentinian player 348 00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 1: has won up on Christiana. Ronaldo but an incredibly successful 349 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:57,320 Speaker 1: football player, the biggest goalscorer of all time amongst male 350 00:18:57,359 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 1: football players. 351 00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:03,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, incredible, And so how has all of that footballing 352 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:07,680 Speaker 2: success vaulted him well into billionaire status now? 353 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 1: So it's very unusual and quite remarkable the way he's 354 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:14,440 Speaker 1: done this because unlike most athletes who get the bulk 355 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:18,840 Speaker 1: of their wealth from endorsements or you know, in the 356 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:22,119 Speaker 1: case of tennis star Roger Feder it came from a 357 00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:28,200 Speaker 1: stake in the footwear company on. In Ronaldo's case, it's 358 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:32,160 Speaker 1: the bulk of his earnings have come from actually playing football, 359 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:37,640 Speaker 1: and actually the majority of that came with his move 360 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:40,320 Speaker 1: to Saudi Arabia, which at the time a lot of 361 00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:43,520 Speaker 1: people were criticizing that decision because you know, he was 362 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:48,680 Speaker 1: going from Manchester United and playing at really top level 363 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:49,359 Speaker 1: football to. 364 00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:52,200 Speaker 7: A very unknown league. 365 00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:56,680 Speaker 1: You know, even in Saudi Arabia wasn't the most successful team. 366 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:00,800 Speaker 1: But it's actually, you know, in the past two years 367 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:05,679 Speaker 1: since he's moved there, he's really really kind of shown 368 00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:07,960 Speaker 1: what a player at the twilight of his. 369 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:11,320 Speaker 7: Career can do in terms of you know, gaining earning. 370 00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:14,520 Speaker 1: So it's really catapulted him into the top ranks of 371 00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 1: the richest sports people. And he's now just renewed his 372 00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:21,880 Speaker 1: contract in June and we're hearing it's worth about four 373 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:25,639 Speaker 1: hundred million dollars, which really kind of just redefines what 374 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 1: you can do as a sports player. 375 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:27,680 Speaker 6: Yeah. 376 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:32,920 Speaker 2: Absolutely, net worth estimated in total for Ronaldo one point 377 00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 2: four billion dollars. Look, we know there's pay inflation in 378 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:41,879 Speaker 2: the world of football. Obviously, my fellow Brits, you know, 379 00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 2: usually pretty obsessed with football and talk a lot about 380 00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:50,520 Speaker 2: pay inflation, and so he's not the only super wealthy 381 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:51,160 Speaker 2: football star. 382 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:53,600 Speaker 1: He's not, and I'm going to I'm going to start 383 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:57,919 Speaker 1: with Messi because everyone just likes comparing the two. And 384 00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 1: obviously we're trying to figure out whether, as he is 385 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:05,480 Speaker 1: also a billionaire in terms of football earnings, Ronaldo is 386 00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:09,160 Speaker 1: still earning more than Messy. But playing in the American 387 00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 1: League has been very fruitful for Messu as well. He 388 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:18,080 Speaker 1: does also have a contract with Apple or revenue sharing deal. 389 00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 1: We don't know how much that's worth, so that could 390 00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:23,320 Speaker 1: be quite significant for his wealth. 391 00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:27,400 Speaker 7: But you know, Saudi, the Saudi. 392 00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:30,119 Speaker 1: League, the American I mean, I think we can call 393 00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:31,560 Speaker 1: it soccer for talking about the US. 394 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:36,040 Speaker 7: It really has shown what footballers. 395 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:38,359 Speaker 1: Who you know, maybe they want everything they could have 396 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 1: done in Europe and now it's time to really kind 397 00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:46,080 Speaker 1: of just play in a different league, but really make 398 00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:50,919 Speaker 1: money for what they do. Obviously, Beckham, we're talking about 399 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:54,520 Speaker 1: one of the most marketable footballers in history. He's done 400 00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:57,760 Speaker 1: quite a lot for himself, but again most of that 401 00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:04,520 Speaker 1: was sponsorship and using his image, his marketing prowess for 402 00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:07,760 Speaker 1: his earnings and as you said, you know, pay inflation 403 00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:12,399 Speaker 1: has really changed since Beckham was playing. Yeah, but yeah, 404 00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:14,639 Speaker 1: Ronaldo is quite unique in that in that sense. 405 00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, And of course the football slash soccer audience is 406 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:20,800 Speaker 2: a global one, isn't it. What do you think Ronaldo 407 00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:24,639 Speaker 2: might do next? This is the fascinating question as we 408 00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:29,000 Speaker 2: cover the the growing business of sport. I mean, is 409 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 2: it going to be investments or some other line of 410 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:35,840 Speaker 2: business like we see other US sporting stars do. 411 00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:36,920 Speaker 7: Yeah. 412 00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:40,880 Speaker 1: So when he's asked what will he do when he retires, 413 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 1: he gets quite irritated that question because he says, you know, 414 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,400 Speaker 1: I'm not retiring it. I'm still playing, I'm still playing 415 00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 1: at the top of my game. I'm still a football player. 416 00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:51,919 Speaker 1: But obviously a lot of interest in around what he 417 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:57,160 Speaker 1: will do. The Brazilian Ronaldo, the other Ronaldo. He owns 418 00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:03,800 Speaker 1: a Spanish football team. Some people think that Cristiano Ronaldo 419 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:07,399 Speaker 1: might follow the same playbook. He has said that he 420 00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:09,960 Speaker 1: would like to own not one, but many football clubs 421 00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:15,520 Speaker 1: after he retires. He does have a very strong relationship 422 00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:19,080 Speaker 1: with a wealth manager based here in Portugal, So the 423 00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:22,159 Speaker 1: thinking is maybe there'll be a family office structure. He 424 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:25,760 Speaker 1: has shown a preference to invest in his home country, 425 00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:29,679 Speaker 1: but so far there've been just small businesses, you know, 426 00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:34,320 Speaker 1: like paddle tennis courts and a ceramics maker. 427 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:37,119 Speaker 7: He does have a hotel interest here as well. 428 00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:39,679 Speaker 1: There will be a lot of interest though, you know, 429 00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:43,600 Speaker 1: will he do He just recently launched a YouTube channel. 430 00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:47,000 Speaker 1: Is he going to move into that kind of media 431 00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:52,680 Speaker 1: like Gary Lineker did with his podcasting business Goalhanger Sports 432 00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:56,679 Speaker 1: that has been incredibly profitable for him. A lot of questions, 433 00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:58,720 Speaker 1: but Ronaldo's still very much says that. 434 00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:00,480 Speaker 7: He's a football football. 435 00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:03,800 Speaker 1: First, and he can speak about what comes next once 436 00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:04,560 Speaker 1: he does retire. 437 00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,320 Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the 438 00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:12,440 Speaker 3: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond. 439 00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,960 Speaker 2: Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, 440 00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:18,880 Speaker 2: Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 441 00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:22,000 Speaker 3: You can also listen live each morning on London Dab Radio, 442 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,680 Speaker 3: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. 443 00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:27,560 Speaker 2: Our flagship New York station is also available on your 444 00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:32,280 Speaker 2: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 445 00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:33,840 Speaker 7: I'm Caroline Hepke and. 446 00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:36,440 Speaker 3: I'm Stephen Carol. Join us again tomorrow morning for all 447 00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:38,880 Speaker 3: the news you need to start your day right here 448 00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:44,120 Speaker 3: on Bloomberg Daybreak. Europe