WEBVTT - It Could Happen Here Weekly 257 0:00:01.870 --> 0:00:04.010 Call zone media. Hey, everybody. 0:00:04.230 --> 0:00:06.120 Robert Evans here, and I wanted to let you know 0:00:06.380 --> 0:00:09.879 this is a compilation episode. So every episode of the 0:00:09.920 --> 0:00:13.700 week that just happened is here in one convenient and 0:00:13.760 --> 0:00:17.020 with somewhat less ads package for you to listen to 0:00:17.079 --> 0:00:19.340 in a long stretch if you want. If you've been 0:00:19.360 --> 0:00:21.390 listening to the episodes every day this week, there's going 0:00:21.410 --> 0:00:23.430 to be nothing new here for you, but you can 0:00:23.470 --> 0:00:30.620 make your own decisions. Hey everybody, Robert here, and this 0:00:30.700 --> 0:00:35.080 is It Could Happen Here, a podcast about things falling apart. 0:00:35.840 --> 0:00:38.230 And it sure looked like things in Brazil were about 0:00:38.270 --> 0:00:40.690 to fall apart a week or two ago, but then 0:00:40.740 --> 0:00:43.390 Lula won the second round of the presidential election in 0:00:43.510 --> 0:00:45.890 a real shocker of a vote. Now, we've talked about 0:00:45.950 --> 0:00:49.229 this on this week's ED, but immediately after the vote, 0:00:49.290 --> 0:00:52.110 I started chatting with some Brazilian folks that I had 0:00:52.170 --> 0:00:54.779 knew and had met online, people who had been Both 0:00:54.820 --> 0:00:57.760 just kind of grassroots activists, you know, part of the 0:00:57.840 --> 0:01:00.980 effort to get Lula reelected in the second round of 0:01:01.000 --> 0:01:03.480 voting and folks who had had, you know, positions of somewhat, 0:01:03.700 --> 0:01:05.500 you know, a little more influence in the media and whatnot, 0:01:05.560 --> 0:01:07.650 all to talk about like what had happened and how 0:01:07.709 --> 0:01:10.510 it had worked. And obviously, I didn't feel like I 0:01:10.569 --> 0:01:13.130 was the best person to put together a comprehensive article 0:01:13.190 --> 0:01:15.490 about that. And so that's why I was really grateful 0:01:15.550 --> 0:01:18.730 to run into Caio Almendra. Caio is a former opinion 0:01:18.830 --> 0:01:21.770 editor for The Intercept Brazil. He's a writer at Superstructure 0:01:21.810 --> 0:01:24.449 with Julian Field. He's one of the hosts of the 0:01:24.490 --> 0:01:28.910 Vera Casacas podcast and an Alameda Institute researcher. He's a 0:01:28.910 --> 0:01:31.260 really cool guy, and he wrote this article, which I 0:01:31.319 --> 0:01:33.340 am going to read to you. This is Caio's article 0:01:33.459 --> 0:01:35.800 about what happened in Brazil and about his own experiences. 0:01:35.959 --> 0:01:38.760 I'm reading it because English is his second language, and 0:01:38.800 --> 0:01:40.479 we figured this would be a better way to reach 0:01:40.560 --> 0:01:44.050 more Americans with what had happened. Because The strategies with 0:01:44.069 --> 0:01:47.069 which Lula won the second round of voting are really 0:01:47.170 --> 0:01:50.590 important for people to understand in like 21st century politics. 0:01:50.630 --> 0:01:53.670 This is not going to be just relevant to Brazil 0:01:53.750 --> 0:01:59.550 and Brazilians. Anyway, here's Caio Almendra. On the night of 0:01:59.630 --> 0:02:04.750 October 5th, 2026, the Brazilian left received horrendous news. Bolsonarismo 0:02:04.870 --> 0:02:07.710 had won the elections, increasing its bench in the Chamber 0:02:07.730 --> 0:02:11.220 of Deputies by 23 and in the Senate by 14. 0:02:11.220 --> 0:02:13.320 There's a real risk that they might get the majority 0:02:13.360 --> 0:02:16.580 needed to amend the Constitution or even to impeach Supreme 0:02:16.639 --> 0:02:19.799 Court justices. With so much power in Congress and the 0:02:19.840 --> 0:02:23.060 prospect of controlling a 9 out of 11 supermajority on 0:02:23.100 --> 0:02:26.900 the Supreme Court, nothing seemed capable of stopping the implementation 0:02:26.940 --> 0:02:31.190 of the most radical parts of Flavio's authoritarian agenda. Because 0:02:31.230 --> 0:02:34.910 Flavio Bolsonaro's platform called for billions of dollars in budget cuts, 0:02:35.070 --> 0:02:38.410 which would inevitably gut public education, pensions, and public health care, 0:02:38.780 --> 0:02:41.320 because his father had attempted a coup and his platform 0:02:41.360 --> 0:02:44.740 included granting amnesty to him and all the insurrectionists, as 0:02:44.800 --> 0:02:47.400 well as impeaching all the Supreme Court justices who voted 0:02:47.440 --> 0:02:50.419 for his arrest and firing the federal police officers involved, 0:02:50.800 --> 0:02:54.540 because he spouted the worst rhetoric of penal populism, advocating 0:02:54.560 --> 0:02:58.380 for chemical castration, lowering the age of criminal responsibility, and 0:02:58.440 --> 0:03:02.150 legalizing the death penalty. And because of Flavio's countless ties 0:03:02.190 --> 0:03:05.590 to organized crime, specifically the militia's, a type of mafia 0:03:05.610 --> 0:03:08.630 that keeps favelas in a permanent dystopia and their residents 0:03:08.690 --> 0:03:11.930 under the thumb of local petty dictators. The future felt 0:03:12.130 --> 0:03:16.870 terrifyingly bleak. Lula, despite leading in the polls, had performed poorly. 0:03:16.889 --> 0:03:20.470 Flavio Bolsonaro, the PL candidate, looked as though he had 0:03:20.590 --> 0:03:23.410 almost won in the first round. The votes were still 0:03:23.450 --> 0:03:26.470 being counted, and Lula was recovering part of the vote share. 0:03:27.250 --> 0:03:29.850 In every bar and venue where the left, myself included, 0:03:29.870 --> 0:03:34.320 had gathered, people watched the election results. In Prasa, El Salvador, 0:03:34.520 --> 0:03:37.660 dubbed Rio's Little Havana because of the left's overwhelming influence 0:03:37.680 --> 0:03:40.560 in the neighborhood, not unlike New York City's commie corridor, 0:03:40.880 --> 0:03:44.060 the atmosphere felt like a funeral. Hundreds of people had 0:03:44.100 --> 0:03:47.020 gathered to watch the results, but with every vote tally update, 0:03:47.080 --> 0:03:50.000 the mood grew heavier. To make matters worse, so many 0:03:50.040 --> 0:03:52.720 people had gathered there that the street beer vendors ran 0:03:52.760 --> 0:03:54.470 out of ice. It was going to be a night 0:03:54.490 --> 0:03:58.210 of terrible news, solaced only by warm beer. Many were 0:03:58.250 --> 0:04:01.650 tracking the count on the electoral court's mobile app. Whispers like, 0:04:01.870 --> 0:04:03.290 did you see what's happening in Minas? 0:04:03.570 --> 0:04:04.250 Were constant. 0:04:04.830 --> 0:04:08.410 Nicolas Feria, a far-right influencer, something like a less overtly 0:04:08.470 --> 0:04:12.570 white supremacist, more transphobic Nick Fuentes, had swept 3 million votes, 0:04:12.770 --> 0:04:15.990 dragging 20 deputies into Congress along with him. The left 0:04:16.029 --> 0:04:18.750 hadn't won a single Senate race in the Southeast, and 0:04:18.790 --> 0:04:21.750 Rio de Janeiro would once again be governed by an unknown, 0:04:21.850 --> 0:04:25.150 backed by the militias. Not far away, a lone, drunk 0:04:25.270 --> 0:04:26.470 Bolsonarista was shouting. 0:04:26.910 --> 0:04:28.070 It's Lula! It's Lula! 0:04:28.210 --> 0:04:31.550 It's Lula back in prison! My friends living abroad kept 0:04:31.650 --> 0:04:34.810 asking me through WhatsApp, What now? Hunger all over again? 0:04:35.150 --> 0:04:38.349 Videos of people eating cow carcasses? Those videos showing the 0:04:38.410 --> 0:04:41.910 misery and starvation under Jair Bolsonaro's government hit the Brazilian 0:04:41.950 --> 0:04:46.050 diaspora in Europe, the US, and Australia particularly hard. My 0:04:46.089 --> 0:04:48.610 uncle in Texas texted me, and I tried to comfort him. 0:04:49.070 --> 0:04:52.150 As a progressive living in Texas, he's usually the pessimistic one. 0:04:52.510 --> 0:04:55.210 But that day, the pessimism was palpable, almost like a 0:04:55.270 --> 0:04:58.440 haze that smelled of warm beer. The left had grown 0:04:58.500 --> 0:05:01.320 slightly in size, but the far-right's crushing victory over the 0:05:01.380 --> 0:05:03.800 center-right meant that no one could help thinking the worst. 0:05:04.360 --> 0:05:07.659 People spoke of a defeat that would affect 220 million 0:05:07.700 --> 0:05:10.800 Brazilian citizens for at least a decade. A group of 0:05:10.839 --> 0:05:14.660 law students from the Universidade Federal Fluminense, a public university 0:05:14.700 --> 0:05:17.200 in the small city of Niterói, sort of a New 0:05:17.240 --> 0:05:19.979 Jersey to Rio de Janeiro, grabbed all the banners and 0:05:20.020 --> 0:05:23.299 stickers they had and started a march against Flavio's fascism 0:05:23.380 --> 0:05:26.370 and in defense of Lula's government. They probably had no 0:05:26.470 --> 0:05:28.589 idea what this would lead to, or how that small 0:05:28.670 --> 0:05:31.330 gesture was the rolling of a snowball down a massive mountain. 0:05:31.830 --> 0:05:35.400 The first-round campaign was remarkably listless in Brazil, a rarity, 0:05:35.540 --> 0:05:38.340 especially in a presidential election year with Lula on the ballot. 0:05:38.880 --> 0:05:42.360 Lula's third term was similarly lackluster. The main hallmarks of 0:05:42.400 --> 0:05:46.370 his third administration were reviving programs abolished by Jair Bolsonaro 0:05:46.450 --> 0:05:50.110 and prosecuting the January 8th insurrectionists who refused to accept 0:05:50.170 --> 0:05:52.950 Jair's defeat. On the eve of the first round, the 0:05:52.970 --> 0:05:56.770 campaign team, sensing trouble ahead, took bold and hugely popular measures. 0:05:57.290 --> 0:06:00.549 The first was banning sports betting platforms, bets, in Brazil. 0:06:00.950 --> 0:06:03.670 Brazil is the world's largest market for online betting, despite 0:06:03.690 --> 0:06:07.529 being the 10th largest economy globally. Gambling addiction affects 11 0:06:07.529 --> 0:06:11.910 million Brazilians. These betting apps were originally legalized under Michel Timmer, 0:06:12.230 --> 0:06:15.910 who took office after an unsubstantiated impeachment against Dilma Rousseff, 0:06:16.089 --> 0:06:19.750 Lula's successor. The ban had 3-to-1 approval in Brazil. Had 0:06:19.790 --> 0:06:22.109 it gone into effect, it would have meant that, on average, 0:06:22.470 --> 0:06:25.370 every Brazilian would now have 40 reals more in their pocket, 0:06:25.690 --> 0:06:28.510 the equivalent of a meal at a good restaurant. However, 0:06:28.690 --> 0:06:32.370 it came too late, just days before the first round. Still, 0:06:32.490 --> 0:06:35.510 it was enough to spark enthusiasm among the activist base, 0:06:35.830 --> 0:06:37.990 focused on the lives of the poorest, as he was 0:06:38.029 --> 0:06:41.810 during his first and second terms. The main issue was pessimism. 0:06:42.250 --> 0:06:44.690 The vast majority of the Brazilian left went to sleep 0:06:44.770 --> 0:06:49.100 on Sunday, October 5th, believing Lula's victory was now mathematically impossible. 0:06:49.690 --> 0:06:53.099 All other candidates besides Lula and Flavio were right-wing, with 0:06:53.200 --> 0:06:56.080 one even to the right of Flavio. The radical socialist 0:06:56.120 --> 0:06:59.460 left received 200,000 votes, a tiny fraction of the 2 0:06:59.460 --> 0:07:03.200 million votes Lula needed to turn around. Robert again here, 0:07:03.360 --> 0:07:05.760 and we'll continue with the story, but first we've got 0:07:05.800 --> 0:07:19.670 a break for some ads. And we're back, and I'm 0:07:19.690 --> 0:07:23.890 going to continue with Kayo's article. Early in the week, however, 0:07:24.010 --> 0:07:27.810 things began to shift. Every optimistic content creator, including the 0:07:27.850 --> 0:07:30.710 writer of this episode, started going viral on social media. 0:07:31.150 --> 0:07:34.090 On the Monday after the election, Philippe Abbal, Gabriel Devan, 0:07:34.490 --> 0:07:36.890 and the author of this article recorded an episode of 0:07:36.930 --> 0:07:41.000 the Virakasas, the Turncoats podcast titled Bora, or Let's Go. 0:07:41.790 --> 0:07:45.250 The tone was straightforward. We are three white, sechette, left-wing guys, 0:07:45.290 --> 0:07:48.430 the stereotypical Brooklyn podcast, and we simply do not have 0:07:48.470 --> 0:07:50.970 the right to give anything less than everything we've got 0:07:51.030 --> 0:07:54.130 to win this second round. Nobody gets to stop. We'll 0:07:54.170 --> 0:07:56.410 do whatever it takes, and this talk about it being 0:07:56.490 --> 0:08:00.070 mathematically impossible to win is pure nonsense. I went as 0:08:00.110 --> 0:08:03.150 far as making a bold prediction. History is in our hands, 0:08:03.310 --> 0:08:05.920 and Brazil's second round could be the first domino to 0:08:06.000 --> 0:08:08.820 fall in a wave of far-right defeats across the Americas. 0:08:09.300 --> 0:08:09.660 The U.S. 0:08:09.700 --> 0:08:12.460 Midterms would be the second. Two days later, I would 0:08:12.480 --> 0:08:15.460 repeat that exact phrase on Fear and Loathing in Brasilia, 0:08:15.690 --> 0:08:19.650 Brazil's biggest left-wing podcast, only for the host to reply, despondently, 0:08:20.310 --> 0:08:23.750 I hope so, Caio, but it looks tough. The same day, 0:08:24.050 --> 0:08:26.110 I repeated the line as a guest on an episode 0:08:26.130 --> 0:08:28.100 of Chapo Trap House and was met with a swarm 0:08:28.140 --> 0:08:31.140 of foreign doomers on social media. As if local pessimism 0:08:31.160 --> 0:08:33.720 wasn't enough, the second round was now importing doom and 0:08:33.740 --> 0:08:36.609 gloom straight from the U.S. into my life. We didn't 0:08:36.650 --> 0:08:40.050 expect the positive response that the episode of Virakashikas would bring. 0:08:40.429 --> 0:08:42.410 On top of becoming one of the most viewed episodes 0:08:42.450 --> 0:08:44.430 of the podcast, it was one of the most commented on. 0:08:44.590 --> 0:08:46.550 Dozens of people wrote to us saying they had regained 0:08:46.570 --> 0:08:48.620 their hope and proudly sharing the votes that they had 0:08:48.650 --> 0:08:51.200 managed to flip. It was a tiny fraction, of course. 0:08:51.500 --> 0:08:53.980 Lula needed two million votes, but it was a great 0:08:54.040 --> 0:08:57.140 indicator of what was to come. Record high abstention rates 0:08:57.179 --> 0:08:59.599 were good news. Another reason for hope was the public's 0:08:59.700 --> 0:09:02.820 low awareness of who Flavio really was, compounded by the 0:09:02.860 --> 0:09:06.230 complete absence of debates in the first round. Flavio hadn't 0:09:06.290 --> 0:09:08.950 attended a single one, and the only collective memory people 0:09:09.030 --> 0:09:12.110 had of him debating was his infamous 2016 collapse on 0:09:12.190 --> 0:09:15.610 live TV. This created a strong expectation that in the 0:09:15.650 --> 0:09:19.569 second round, Lula, a seasoned debater since 1989, would easily 0:09:19.610 --> 0:09:22.209 dominate the debates and swing a massive number of votes. 0:09:22.890 --> 0:09:25.080 Despite his strong showing in the first round of voting, 0:09:25.170 --> 0:09:29.280 Flavio was an exceptionally weak candidate. In the 2016 mayoral election, 0:09:29.360 --> 0:09:32.500 Flavio finished in fourth place, after he fainted and soiled 0:09:32.520 --> 0:09:36.189 himself during a live debate. Within the Bolsonaro family, he 0:09:36.230 --> 0:09:39.150 was the closest to organized crime and major corruption scandals. 0:09:39.530 --> 0:09:41.980 Thanks to a miracle of media spin, the largest recent 0:09:42.010 --> 0:09:45.439 corruption case in Brazil's history, the Banco Master Ponzi scheme, 0:09:45.720 --> 0:09:49.099 had been framed as ambidextrous, meaning it supposedly involved both 0:09:49.120 --> 0:09:51.420 the left and the right. It was a blatant lie. 0:09:51.920 --> 0:09:55.210 Leaked audio recordings proved an intimate friendship between Flavio and 0:09:55.270 --> 0:09:59.930 banker Daniel Vorcaro. Vorcaro had donated money to Jair Bolsonaro's biopics, 0:10:00.030 --> 0:10:04.080 starring Jim Caviezel, a project developed by Flavio. Vorcaro was 0:10:04.140 --> 0:10:07.720 affiliated with the Lagoina Church, a recent megachurch that experienced 0:10:07.820 --> 0:10:11.340 meteoric growth and was deeply tied to the PL right-wing party. 0:10:11.960 --> 0:10:14.780 Flavio was a silent partner in a betting platform linked 0:10:14.800 --> 0:10:18.640 to Vorcaro. They even shared a business partner, Willard Tomas. 0:10:19.230 --> 0:10:21.010 By the way, if you found it strange that the 0:10:21.050 --> 0:10:23.510 same group owned a church, a betting company, and a bank, 0:10:23.790 --> 0:10:27.209 all classic vehicles for money laundering, well, your suspicions might 0:10:27.250 --> 0:10:31.100 be spot on. Allegations that this whole rapidly growing complex 0:10:31.120 --> 0:10:34.219 was a money laundering scheme for organized crime are well-founded. 0:10:34.900 --> 0:10:37.400 Willer Tomas, for instance, was the largest bettor on the 0:10:37.440 --> 0:10:40.850 Blaze platform, accounting for 50% of the company's profits by 0:10:40.880 --> 0:10:42.250 spending 6.6 billion rials, roughly $ 1. 0:10:42.090 --> 0:10:42.510 2 billion. 0:10:45.580 --> 0:10:48.069 There's no way he is not a hidden partner of Blaise, 0:10:48.250 --> 0:10:51.430 and that's a money laundering scheme. Even so, the mainstream 0:10:51.450 --> 0:10:54.809 media blackout on the topic shielded Flavio. Only the small 0:10:54.870 --> 0:10:58.790 alternative media ecosystem was talking about it. To make matters worse, 0:10:58.929 --> 0:11:01.980 Flavio's presumed future economy minister was appearing in the media 0:11:02.000 --> 0:11:05.240 to lay out her platform. She proposed ending Bolsa Familia, 0:11:05.520 --> 0:11:08.420 the income transfer program that lifted millions out of poverty 0:11:08.460 --> 0:11:11.530 during Lula's first terms in office. She backed blocking the 0:11:11.580 --> 0:11:14.099 reduction of the workweek from 44 to 40 hours, a 0:11:14.120 --> 0:11:17.179 campaign that had originally gone viral on TikTok, led by 0:11:17.240 --> 0:11:20.400 a black gay TikToker who had just been elected federal deputy, 0:11:20.700 --> 0:11:23.380 in a campaign which Lula had embraced earlier this year. 0:11:24.200 --> 0:11:26.699 Added to that were wage freezes and billions of rials 0:11:26.820 --> 0:11:29.819 in budget cuts, echoing Millet and Doge, which the left 0:11:29.880 --> 0:11:32.520 quickly realized would come straight out of healthcare and education. 0:11:33.340 --> 0:11:35.679 And she was not the only person in Flavio's circle 0:11:35.720 --> 0:11:39.240 damaging his image. Flavio himself was not a particularly religious 0:11:39.300 --> 0:11:42.920 person until he needed to consolidate support among evangelicals to 0:11:42.970 --> 0:11:46.690 gain leverage within the Bolsonarista coalition and secure his nomination 0:11:46.730 --> 0:11:49.990 as the candidate. To that end, the pastor Flavio allied 0:11:50.010 --> 0:11:53.110 with was especially radical. As a result, the pastor had 0:11:53.150 --> 0:11:56.689 taken deeply anti-Catholic stances, such as demanding that Brazil strip 0:11:56.809 --> 0:11:59.449 Our Lady of Aparecida, one of the few black saints, 0:11:59.690 --> 0:12:01.850 of her status as the patron saint of the nation. 0:12:02.510 --> 0:12:05.449 Despite evangelical influence on the right, the majority of Brazil 0:12:05.490 --> 0:12:09.920 remains Catholic. Furthermore, the Afro-religious minority also reveres Our Lady 0:12:09.970 --> 0:12:15.329 of Aparecida, syncretized with the Orisha Oshun. Still, fear only 0:12:15.370 --> 0:12:18.189 gets you so far. The Democrats spent all of 2024 0:12:18.190 --> 0:12:21.790 trying to fearmonger liberals into organizing, and it fell flat. 0:12:22.150 --> 0:12:26.360 Fear simply isn't enough. The 17th century Dutch philosopher Benedict 0:12:26.380 --> 0:12:29.280 Spinoza pointed out that if fear is anxiety about a 0:12:29.300 --> 0:12:32.479 future bad outcome, and hope is that exact same anxiety 0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:35.540 about a good outcome, and given that all anxiety hinges 0:12:35.620 --> 0:12:38.420 on uncertainty, Fear and hope are just two sides of 0:12:38.440 --> 0:12:42.439 the very same coin. On Wednesday, October 7th, barely two 0:12:42.500 --> 0:12:45.679 days after those UFF students spontaneously marched in a super 0:12:45.740 --> 0:12:49.070 rare first round demonstration, students from all over the state 0:12:49.090 --> 0:12:51.370 of Rio took over the streets at a massive rally. 0:12:51.890 --> 0:12:55.030 The shift from sheer dread into rising hope was officially underway. 0:12:55.450 --> 0:12:58.290 By Thursday, everyone was talking about how huge the student 0:12:58.330 --> 0:13:01.810 march had been. That same day, Lula gathered influencers and 0:13:01.870 --> 0:13:05.619 newly elected young leaders to recalibrate the online campaign. Despite 0:13:05.630 --> 0:13:09.150 a few bumps along the way, like tanky YouTuber-turned-Congressman Yones 0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:12.560 Manuel calling out Lula's campaign for being totally lost, the 0:13:12.600 --> 0:13:15.640 digital side started getting its act together. Lula switched to 0:13:15.679 --> 0:13:19.340 posting raw selfie videos, hitting Flavio much harder. The campaign 0:13:19.380 --> 0:13:22.140 launched an intense calendar of street actions, maybe the most 0:13:22.179 --> 0:13:25.360 relentless schedule Brazil has ever seen. Which brings us to 0:13:25.380 --> 0:13:29.300 the bizarre story of André Yanones. Inones came from a 0:13:29.360 --> 0:13:32.080 poor background, working as a bus conductor to put himself 0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:36.200 through law school. While in college, he joined Lula's Workers' Party, PT. 0:13:36.679 --> 0:13:38.580 Working as a lawyer in a tiny town, he took 0:13:38.640 --> 0:13:41.520 on healthcare access cases, suing the state and health insurance 0:13:41.580 --> 0:13:45.350 companies to secure surgeries, medical tests, and other procedures. By 0:13:45.410 --> 0:13:48.650 constantly pushing the state for improvements to the public healthcare system, 0:13:49.070 --> 0:13:52.330 he earned the nickname the People's Inspector. In 2012, he 0:13:52.390 --> 0:13:55.530 left the PT to join the far-right PSC, which at 0:13:55.570 --> 0:13:58.700 the time was the political home of Carlos Bolsonaro. He 0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:01.370 chalked it up to ideological differences, which might just be 0:14:01.429 --> 0:14:03.929 code for, I'm an evangelical, I can't sit in a 0:14:03.970 --> 0:14:07.309 party rooted in Catholic left and Marxism. That said, a 0:14:07.350 --> 0:14:09.720 good amount of opportunism goes a long way in explaining 0:14:09.760 --> 0:14:13.570 this change too. In 2018, he supported the truck driver strikes. 0:14:14.090 --> 0:14:16.910 This was an ambiguous event in Brazil. Formerly, it was 0:14:16.950 --> 0:14:20.190 a mobilization against President Michel Timmer, who had taken office 0:14:20.250 --> 0:14:24.320 following the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff, Lula's successor. However, midway 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:26.600 through to the end of the strike, individual truck drivers 0:14:26.660 --> 0:14:29.500 started returning to work, making its nature as a lockout 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:34.000 look glaringly obvious. Employer strikes organized by a trucking company 0:14:34.140 --> 0:14:36.740 owners are not only illegal under Brazilian law, but they 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:39.610 also carry a tragic history in Latin America. They were 0:14:39.650 --> 0:14:43.690 weaponized to overthrow Salvador Allende in Chile and Joao Gaulert 0:14:43.790 --> 0:14:48.030 in Brazil. In 2018, Yanones was elected federal deputy under 0:14:48.050 --> 0:14:52.020 the Avante, a party so centrist that its name literally means, forward. 0:14:52.750 --> 0:14:55.290 In 2022, he announced his presidential run, but on the 0:14:55.390 --> 0:14:57.950 eve of the campaign, he declared his endorsement of Lula 0:14:57.970 --> 0:15:00.530 during a livestream. From that moment on, he would become 0:15:00.590 --> 0:15:03.890 one of Lula's most loyal fedain. Throughout this whole chaotic 0:15:03.930 --> 0:15:07.460 political process, Inonis' charisma and his knack for understanding the 0:15:07.480 --> 0:15:10.860 Brazilian internet were his greatest asset. Today, he is a 0:15:10.900 --> 0:15:13.740 member of Brazil's True Green Party, allied with the socialist 0:15:13.780 --> 0:15:17.280 left of PSOL, and home to Marina Silva, Lula's Minister 0:15:17.320 --> 0:15:20.560 of the Environment, who brought Amazon deforestation down to near zero. 0:15:21.290 --> 0:15:24.850 Back in 2022, Llanones' influence was real, but it got 0:15:24.930 --> 0:15:27.610 somewhat exaggerated thanks to the viral spread of the cultural 0:15:27.630 --> 0:15:32.030 Llanonism meme, originally coined on Twitter by environmentalist Mauricio Angelo. 0:15:32.690 --> 0:15:36.109 Cultural Llanonism was essentially dirty political warfare, the kind of 0:15:36.190 --> 0:15:39.370 mudslinging the left usually had moral scruples about engaging in. 0:15:39.390 --> 0:15:43.370 Llanones was the only one who exposed Bolsonaro's ties to Freemasonry, 0:15:43.470 --> 0:15:47.430 and therefore Satanism, setting off alarms across his evangelical base. 0:15:47.900 --> 0:15:50.180 He was the only one driving the narrative that Bolsonaro 0:15:50.200 --> 0:15:52.280 was a cannibal, and he was the only one who 0:15:52.360 --> 0:15:55.100 turned a video viral in which Bolsonaro, right in the 0:15:55.120 --> 0:15:58.640 middle of a xenophobic rant, claimed a 14-year-old Venezuelan girl 0:15:58.680 --> 0:16:03.450 had flirted with him, fueling accusations of pedophilia against the president. Basically, 0:16:03.690 --> 0:16:05.270 Yanonism vented dark woke. 0:16:05.670 --> 0:16:06.750 The U.S. copied him. 0:16:07.490 --> 0:16:10.850 Lula's margin of victory in 2022 was so razor-thin that 0:16:10.890 --> 0:16:13.730 many ended up hailing Yanonism as the desperate playbook the 0:16:13.770 --> 0:16:16.620 left required to pull off a win. With Lula's base 0:16:16.660 --> 0:16:19.430 feeling lost, terrified, and clinging to tiny glimmers of hope, 0:16:19.690 --> 0:16:23.130 Yononas became an undisputed leader. The sentiment was, we may 0:16:23.150 --> 0:16:25.650 not understand what he's doing, and we might even disagree, 0:16:25.810 --> 0:16:28.050 we might not even like him, but we trust that 0:16:28.080 --> 0:16:30.960 he wants Lula elected and that he understands online political 0:16:31.020 --> 0:16:33.160 warfare better than any of us, so I'm going to 0:16:33.260 --> 0:16:37.440 obey whatever Yononas asks. Yononas set up a broadcast group 0:16:37.520 --> 0:16:40.250 on WhatsApp, a channel where only he had posting rights, 0:16:40.470 --> 0:16:44.100 dubbed Lula's Army. Through written posts and quick videos, he 0:16:44.140 --> 0:16:46.620 handed out daily marching orders to everyone in the channel. 0:16:46.820 --> 0:16:48.920 Almost every single day, part of the job was scaling 0:16:48.990 --> 0:16:52.570 up the group's footprint, pushing for non-stop member milestones. In 0:16:52.650 --> 0:16:54.330 one clip, he claimed that if they hit 10 million 0:16:54.370 --> 0:16:57.550 members before election day, Lula was guaranteed to win. It 0:16:57.570 --> 0:16:59.810 was like handing out water in a desert. The channel 0:16:59.870 --> 0:17:02.930 exploded in size, entering the second round runoff with 11 0:17:02.930 --> 0:17:06.130 million subscribers. And we'll talk about what came after that, 0:17:06.330 --> 0:17:08.450 but first, I've got to run to ads one last time. 0:17:19.980 --> 0:17:22.740 And we're back, and I'm going to continue with Caio's piece. 0:17:24.980 --> 0:17:27.750 The tasks assigned in the channel, the Lula's Army channel, 0:17:27.850 --> 0:17:30.270 were not focused on gaming the algorithm like a digital 0:17:30.310 --> 0:17:33.909 marketing agency would, but on torpedoing all of Flavio Bolsonaro's 0:17:34.010 --> 0:17:37.490 efforts on the internet. The primary rule was, do not engage, 0:17:37.690 --> 0:17:41.250 block on site, for every politician, influencer, viral content, or 0:17:41.290 --> 0:17:44.649 hashtag coming from the far right. While Bolsonaroismo relied on 0:17:44.690 --> 0:17:48.090 the highly effective tactic of message redundancy, where multiple different 0:17:48.170 --> 0:17:50.889 figures post content in various formats to push the exact 0:17:50.950 --> 0:17:55.210 same political agenda, Unanism's tactic was the exact opposite, everyone 0:17:55.280 --> 0:17:58.550 sharing the exact same piece of content. This flooded the zone. 0:17:58.910 --> 0:18:01.210 More than a strategy to convince people on social media, 0:18:01.270 --> 0:18:03.649 it was a strategy to disrupt the normal functioning of 0:18:03.690 --> 0:18:07.330 social platforms, which, as reported, heavily favored the far right. 0:18:07.869 --> 0:18:10.630 News that Meta directly interfered in the election, boosting views 0:18:10.690 --> 0:18:14.260 on Flavio's content while suppressing Lula's, remains an international scandal. 0:18:14.990 --> 0:18:18.650 In addition to gamification, Yaronis heavily relied on strategies driven 0:18:18.690 --> 0:18:22.590 by curiosity and psychological teasers. At times, the tactic was 0:18:22.650 --> 0:18:25.830 simply to spread the phrase, Who is Marina Flavio Bolsonaro? 0:18:26.130 --> 0:18:28.730 without even explaining to his own followers what the message 0:18:28.760 --> 0:18:32.340 was actually about. The result was intense public curiosity about 0:18:32.359 --> 0:18:34.740 a story that was yet to break. In this specific case, 0:18:35.160 --> 0:18:37.679 Mariana was the pseudonym of a Ukrainian refugee who was 0:18:37.720 --> 0:18:41.720 sexually trafficked by Daniel Varkaro. All this made it completely 0:18:41.780 --> 0:18:44.990 impossible for Flavio Bolsonaro to land a single viral narrative 0:18:45.010 --> 0:18:48.270 during the entire second round campaign. If the internet serves 0:18:48.330 --> 0:18:51.190 as infrastructure for the far right, Unones used his army 0:18:51.230 --> 0:18:55.070 to blow up that bridge. His persona, naturally, spawned endless memes, 0:18:55.250 --> 0:18:59.419 his trademark habit starting every video screaming, folks, urgent, and 0:18:59.560 --> 0:19:02.619 closing out calls for mass sharing with, blast this out, 0:19:02.900 --> 0:19:05.840 became running gags across every bar, embraced by people who, 0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:08.879 even as they poked fun at him, executed his orders religiously. 0:19:09.430 --> 0:19:13.230 At the same time, the channel drove grassroots ground-game persuasion tactics. 0:19:13.730 --> 0:19:16.209 Reach out to three Bolsonaro voters today and send them 0:19:16.230 --> 0:19:19.710 this breaking story on Flavio's latest corruption scandal, or find 0:19:19.730 --> 0:19:21.889 an older Lula supporter who skipped the first round and 0:19:21.930 --> 0:19:23.780 talk to them about what this election means for the 0:19:23.840 --> 0:19:28.580 next generation. Exotic vote-flipping tactics also turned into memes. Gay 0:19:28.619 --> 0:19:32.340 men exposing the marriages of closeted Bolsonaristas. People taking their 0:19:32.359 --> 0:19:35.659 Bolsonarista families on weekend trips during the election, saying, I 0:19:35.700 --> 0:19:37.980 might not vote, but I'm taking away 10 of their votes. 0:19:38.430 --> 0:19:41.120 and people hiding the photo IDs required to vote all 0:19:41.180 --> 0:19:44.619 racked up quick likes. Throughout this entire process, fear was 0:19:44.660 --> 0:19:48.850 slowly flipped to its other side, hope. Knowing it became overconfident, 0:19:48.990 --> 0:19:51.190 the first-round defeat had been far too brutal for that. 0:19:51.550 --> 0:19:54.560 Yet the rallies grew progressively larger and more joyful, eventually 0:19:54.600 --> 0:19:57.389 becoming the largest wave of demonstrations in the country's history, 0:19:57.760 --> 0:20:01.980 surpassing the far-right mobilizations for Dilma's impeachment in 2016, the 0:20:02.020 --> 0:20:04.979 free bus fare protests in 2013, and the marches for 0:20:05.020 --> 0:20:10.070 redemocratization in the 1980s. The direct coordination between Yanonis and Lula, 0:20:10.130 --> 0:20:13.409 who were hosting livestreams together constantly, helped the calls for 0:20:13.450 --> 0:20:19.129 demonstrations go viral. So, did Yanonis single-handedly save the campaign? Again, 0:20:19.210 --> 0:20:21.760 he might be riding on more credit than he actually deserves, 0:20:21.950 --> 0:20:25.190 simply because he was such prime meme material. Erica Hilton, 0:20:25.359 --> 0:20:28.879 a socialist trans woman representative who racked up 1.6 million votes, 0:20:29.020 --> 0:20:33.080 dwarfing Yanonis' 78,000, built a similar network that grew to 0:20:33.080 --> 0:20:35.750 2 million strong. If Eunonis hadn't been in the picture, 0:20:35.830 --> 0:20:38.390 hers might easily have scaled to 11 million, or maybe 0:20:38.450 --> 0:20:41.550 even higher. What Eunonis did can't be reduced to some 0:20:41.609 --> 0:20:44.730 master strategy hatched by a solitary genius, who is an 0:20:44.800 --> 0:20:47.180 unlikely figure who stepped into the void left by a 0:20:47.240 --> 0:20:50.520 crumbling campaign, channeling the raw fear and hope energy of 0:20:50.600 --> 0:20:54.020 millions of people. This isn't a great man theory of history, 0:20:54.100 --> 0:20:57.000 it's a story of how intense popular energy takes wild, 0:20:57.140 --> 0:21:00.619 unpredictable turns when there's no traditional structure around to channel it. 0:21:01.220 --> 0:21:04.080 A sense of moral duty to prevent Bolsonaro's victory, coupled 0:21:04.100 --> 0:21:06.940 with the collective gratification of building a win through popular 0:21:06.990 --> 0:21:11.330 mobilization against the Bolsonarismo that has plagued the country since 2016, 0:21:11.330 --> 0:21:15.170 completely exploded. For a decade, the Brazilian left watched, stunned 0:21:15.210 --> 0:21:18.869 and helpless, the effects of thousands of underground Bolsonarista WhatsApp groups. 0:21:19.510 --> 0:21:21.430 One day, your neighbor would tell you that a satanic 0:21:21.490 --> 0:21:24.650 ritual had been performed at the presidential palace. Suddenly, your 0:21:24.730 --> 0:21:26.810 aunt would start talking about the government wanting to rewrite 0:21:26.830 --> 0:21:30.360 the Bible to remove homophobic passages. Another day, your grandfather 0:21:30.390 --> 0:21:32.940 would swear that the government had handed out dick-shaped baby 0:21:32.960 --> 0:21:36.899 models at public nurseries. Stratospheric corruption figures were thrown around 0:21:36.940 --> 0:21:39.900 out of nowhere. Being in a space free from all that, 0:21:40.000 --> 0:21:42.679 free from fear, standing together and fighting for a social 0:21:42.720 --> 0:21:47.100 transformation everyone believed in became addictive and contagious. Images of 0:21:47.220 --> 0:21:50.580 massive marches comforted tired hearts. None of this was a 0:21:50.660 --> 0:21:54.570 cure for fear. Throughout this whole process, Inside every single 0:21:54.690 --> 0:21:56.989 one of us, there was a lingering dread that Flavia 0:21:57.020 --> 0:22:01.360 would be elected, slash billions in social spending, persecute political opponents, 0:22:01.420 --> 0:22:04.639 and execute the Doge Melee agenda. The left knew that 0:22:04.680 --> 0:22:07.640 Trump's second administration was stronger, more absurd, and far more 0:22:07.720 --> 0:22:10.869 terrible than the first. We saw the cuts in pediatric 0:22:10.880 --> 0:22:14.290 cancer research and the money flowing to ICE raids. However, 0:22:14.670 --> 0:22:17.210 if fear and hope are strictly speaking the same thing, 0:22:17.550 --> 0:22:20.570 we must understand that both can be paralyzing, freezing us 0:22:20.630 --> 0:22:23.820 in place. Yet, There is a virtuous cycle that turns 0:22:24.080 --> 0:22:26.959 action in the present, rather than anxieties about the future, 0:22:27.280 --> 0:22:30.460 into a collective effort, transforming the fear-hope coin into a 0:22:30.500 --> 0:22:34.780 potent force for mobilization. Sometimes, you just need a peculiar 0:22:34.820 --> 0:22:37.200 guy to step up and fill the political vacuum of 0:22:37.260 --> 0:22:38.900 a lost, headless campaign by. 0:22:38.900 --> 0:22:39.960 Shouting, Urgent! 0:22:40.260 --> 0:22:41.080 Blast this out! 0:22:41.480 --> 0:22:43.659 Now! All right. 0:22:44.260 --> 0:22:46.870 Yeah, that's what we've got for you today. If you're 0:22:46.880 --> 0:22:49.389 wanting to look into the author of this episode, Kayo Almendra, 0:22:49.930 --> 0:22:56.020 You can find him on BlueSky at Kayo Almendra, C-A-I-O-A-L-M-E-N-D-R-A 0:22:56.390 --> 0:22:57.760 dot BlueSky dot social. 0:22:58.460 --> 0:23:01.639 Yeah. Thanks again. And we'll be back tomorrow. 0:23:10.960 --> 0:23:13.520 Welcome to It Could Happen Here. I'm Kevin Foster, and 0:23:13.540 --> 0:23:16.610 today is Election Day in the United States, provided you're 0:23:16.619 --> 0:23:20.550 listening when this comes out. Rather than talking about candidates, races, 0:23:20.630 --> 0:23:23.010 ballot measures, all the things there will be plenty of 0:23:23.070 --> 0:23:25.709 chatter about, I want to have a discussion about the 0:23:25.890 --> 0:23:30.909 ongoing problem of election rumors and misinformation. The 2026 general 0:23:30.950 --> 0:23:34.250 election will have no shortage of rigged election rumors and 0:23:34.310 --> 0:23:37.790 conspiracy theories. The lead-up to the election has been full 0:23:37.830 --> 0:23:42.310 of erroneous claims of non-citizen voting and mail-in voting conspiracism, 0:23:42.750 --> 0:23:46.700 frequently from the president himself. About a week before the election, 0:23:46.800 --> 0:23:50.320 Trump announced on Truth Social a $ 1 million bounty for 0:23:50.359 --> 0:23:53.659 reports of voter fraud in the current or previous elections 0:23:53.760 --> 0:23:56.980 that lead to a conviction. I don't expect any of 0:23:57.040 --> 0:23:59.380 this to slow down. In fact, it may well get 0:23:59.460 --> 0:24:03.020 worse in the coming weeks. From coordinated efforts to undermine 0:24:03.060 --> 0:24:07.879 faith in elections to unofficial alt-government agency accounts conspiracy posting, 0:24:08.420 --> 0:24:10.950 it's going to be a mess. which is exactly why 0:24:10.970 --> 0:24:13.369 I brought on a few experts to help parse through 0:24:13.430 --> 0:24:16.690 the flaming garbage pile that is the election rumor mill. 0:24:17.310 --> 0:24:20.820 I interviewed Stephen Prohaska and Danielle Lee Thompson of the 0:24:20.890 --> 0:24:24.860 University of Washington's Center for an Informed Public, or CIP. 0:24:25.440 --> 0:24:30.740 Prohaska is a sixth-year PhD candidate studying disinformation, and Thompson 0:24:30.820 --> 0:24:34.560 is the research manager for CIP, leading a team studying 0:24:34.700 --> 0:24:37.609 institutional communication and rumors around U.S. 0:24:37.690 --> 0:24:38.170 Elections. 0:24:39.160 --> 0:24:42.500 Their research is a bit different from many academic institutions 0:24:42.600 --> 0:24:45.459 and involves a lot of rapid response work. It has 0:24:45.500 --> 0:24:47.659 also gotten them in hot water with a cast of 0:24:47.720 --> 0:24:52.840 election deniers, including Project Veritas, who unsuccessfully sued some members 0:24:52.900 --> 0:24:56.280 of CIP for their reporting on allegations of voter fraud 0:24:56.340 --> 0:24:59.679 in 2020. For those who don't know, Project Veritas is 0:24:59.740 --> 0:25:04.190 a far-right organization that promotes disinformation and election conspiracism. It 0:25:04.790 --> 0:25:08.670 was founded by James O'Keefe, who, according to Reuters, recently 0:25:08.710 --> 0:25:12.450 filmed a stunt in Minnesota with right-wing influencer Cam Higbee, 0:25:12.890 --> 0:25:16.950 landing them both with felony unlawful voting and identity theft charges, 0:25:17.290 --> 0:25:22.170 proposing as registered voters at polling places during Minnesota's August primary. 0:25:22.190 --> 0:25:25.590 That's not really relevant to the episode, I just think 0:25:25.630 --> 0:25:28.669 it's really funny and ironic. But anyway, I want to 0:25:28.690 --> 0:25:31.570 be clear, I'm not saying in this episode that we 0:25:31.609 --> 0:25:34.900 have completely free and fair elections. We don't know what's 0:25:34.940 --> 0:25:37.920 going to happen today or in the upcoming weeks, whether 0:25:38.060 --> 0:25:42.020 ICE will intimidate people at the polls, what Trump will post, etc. 0:25:42.580 --> 0:25:45.540 This episode is about trying to understand what's happening and 0:25:45.600 --> 0:25:49.550 how not to pour gasoline on the fire. So without 0:25:49.590 --> 0:25:54.430 further ado, here's the interview. I want to talk a 0:25:54.470 --> 0:25:59.090 little bit about your typology around elections. Why do you 0:25:59.250 --> 0:26:03.450 use the word rumors to describe elections? All these things 0:26:03.470 --> 0:26:05.909 that are popping up around the election. What's the difference 0:26:05.950 --> 0:26:10.669 between that and misinformation or conspiracy? And I think this 0:26:10.690 --> 0:26:13.670 would also be a good spot to talk about some 0:26:13.690 --> 0:26:16.820 of the spot the lie kind of methodology that you have. 0:26:17.760 --> 0:26:19.320 And Danielle, you can kick us off. 0:26:20.180 --> 0:26:20.320 So. 0:26:20.960 --> 0:26:23.260 I think if you look back 10 years ago, there 0:26:23.300 --> 0:26:26.220 was a really interesting moment where we had a lot 0:26:26.260 --> 0:26:30.639 of new things happening in American society. A new president 0:26:30.859 --> 0:26:35.570 who was super populist, aka Donald Trump. We had these 0:26:35.790 --> 0:26:40.070 online platforms that brought quick information into the palms of 0:26:40.150 --> 0:26:43.629 our hands in this very intimate way. And folks were 0:26:43.770 --> 0:26:47.480 really wondering why. Like, why did this election happen? What's 0:26:47.520 --> 0:26:50.720 going on? There's hate speech on the internet that's super visible. 0:26:51.060 --> 0:26:54.460 There's false information on the internet that's super visible. And 0:26:54.480 --> 0:26:58.550 I think that there was a real interest across society, 0:26:59.010 --> 0:27:04.530 whether it was civil society, academia, journalism, and other kinds of, 0:27:04.550 --> 0:27:06.970 you could think of it as like, ivory tower truce 0:27:07.130 --> 0:27:12.590 organizations interested in confronting this informational challenge. And so I 0:27:12.609 --> 0:27:16.880 think at the moment, folks oftentimes fixated on how like 0:27:16.950 --> 0:27:19.620 information was true or false. Like, oh my gosh, Trump 0:27:19.660 --> 0:27:22.280 is saying all these false things. Oh my goodness. Someone 0:27:22.320 --> 0:27:24.580 said this like terrible thing that we need to moderate 0:27:24.600 --> 0:27:26.939 and we need to like figure out this problem. So 0:27:27.000 --> 0:27:28.860 there was a lot of, I think at the time 0:27:28.880 --> 0:27:31.609 to folks who jumped on this bandwagon of talking about 0:27:31.730 --> 0:27:36.180 information as like a disinformation problem or a narrative disorder, 0:27:36.540 --> 0:27:38.860 or like all of these ways in which we could 0:27:39.000 --> 0:27:43.240 solve across just elections, but also public health or, uh, 0:27:43.880 --> 0:27:47.290 climate or other things like this challenge of the public 0:27:47.410 --> 0:27:52.590 getting false information from smaller outlets or individuals because broadcast 0:27:52.650 --> 0:27:57.020 media and journalism had just become, uh, I mean, quite frankly, 0:27:57.380 --> 0:28:00.570 a little bit more under attack or consolidated or going 0:28:00.590 --> 0:28:02.530 out of business. It's like the nature of how we 0:28:02.550 --> 0:28:06.450 get information was changing so rapidly. Now, I think like 0:28:06.890 --> 0:28:10.460 our team, the founders of our center, Kate Starburn and 0:28:10.520 --> 0:28:14.290 Emma Spiro had gotten their career starts studying data. crisis 0:28:14.330 --> 0:28:17.790 informatics so this is how information flows on the internet 0:28:17.810 --> 0:28:21.270 during crisis moments and they framed it very early on 0:28:21.470 --> 0:28:25.560 as the study of rumor during crisis events a rumor 0:28:25.650 --> 0:28:30.300 is an unfounded claim or speculation that doesn't necessarily have 0:28:30.500 --> 0:28:32.440 evidence or maybe it does have some evidence that isn't 0:28:32.480 --> 0:28:37.040 verified yet but rumors are really normal things during a 0:28:37.080 --> 0:28:39.560 crisis event like yeah Everyone wants to know who did it, 0:28:39.600 --> 0:28:42.300 what did it, what happened, what's going on. And everyone 0:28:42.340 --> 0:28:44.260 has a take. It's like playing a game of telephone. 0:28:44.680 --> 0:28:47.320 And there have been studies for basically the past hundred 0:28:47.360 --> 0:28:51.210 years of how rumoring dynamics work in American society. Now, 0:28:51.330 --> 0:28:54.730 sometimes those rumors can be true. They can be false 0:28:54.870 --> 0:28:56.630 or they can be somewhere. And most of the time, 0:28:56.670 --> 0:29:01.990 somewhere in between, right? Disinformation is the intentional spread of 0:29:02.380 --> 0:29:06.990 of false or falsified information in order to mislead the 0:29:07.030 --> 0:29:09.709 public or to gain or something for gain, some sort 0:29:09.750 --> 0:29:13.940 of coordination, right? So there's like an intentional element. Misinformation 0:29:14.320 --> 0:29:18.190 is the spread of false or misleading information but not 0:29:18.260 --> 0:29:22.380 necessarily with that intent. So sometimes we've all been guilty 0:29:22.800 --> 0:29:24.980 of sharing some sort of post online that might be 0:29:25.100 --> 0:29:27.340 AI generated. Then we find out later that it was 0:29:27.400 --> 0:29:28.160 AI generated. 0:29:28.180 --> 0:29:29.320 Oh my goodness. 0:29:29.620 --> 0:29:33.890 I accidentally spread some misinformation online. That's very different than 0:29:33.990 --> 0:29:38.709 intentionally spreading that piece of information in order to mislead 0:29:38.730 --> 0:29:39.170 the public. 0:29:39.410 --> 0:29:42.850 It's the pink Panther at the Paris protests and stuff. 0:29:42.910 --> 0:29:44.090 Yeah, exactly. 0:29:44.110 --> 0:29:47.330 And so but a rumor actually is maybe a little 0:29:47.590 --> 0:29:50.840 bit more honest to describe what we're studying in the moment, 0:29:50.880 --> 0:29:54.670 because we don't know the intent oftentimes of people spreading 0:29:54.990 --> 0:29:58.270 certain kinds of information. So it's it's sort of a 0:29:58.270 --> 0:30:02.650 little more honest in these rapidly unfolding moments of high 0:30:02.690 --> 0:30:06.510 levels of uncertainty, like elections to call something a rumor, 0:30:06.850 --> 0:30:08.820 because we're not the ones to like make that call 0:30:08.920 --> 0:30:14.180 about the intentionality of that information. Although there's definitely a 0:30:14.940 --> 0:30:17.540 lot of signs sometimes to what might be a coordinated 0:30:17.580 --> 0:30:19.300 disinformation campaign versus not. 0:30:19.980 --> 0:30:20.260 Yeah. Yeah. 0:30:20.540 --> 0:30:23.070 But yeah, so we've basically been doing this work so 0:30:23.110 --> 0:30:27.330 long that we have identified six ways that rumors can 0:30:27.390 --> 0:30:32.280 be potentially misleading. So I'm happy to sort of pass 0:30:32.300 --> 0:30:35.560 that off to Stephen if you want to talk about it. Yeah. 0:30:36.180 --> 0:30:37.840 Before I jump in that, I'm just going to emphasize 0:30:37.880 --> 0:30:40.750 the point Danielle made there that because we're doing rapid 0:30:40.810 --> 0:30:43.460 response work, We are looking at rumors in real time. 0:30:43.500 --> 0:30:45.600 We don't know facticity. We don't know intentionality. 0:30:45.700 --> 0:30:47.680 So as far as like the primary construct for the 0:30:47.720 --> 0:30:50.700 work that we do in the rapid response setting, rumor 0:30:50.840 --> 0:30:52.700 is what we are looking at because there is so 0:30:52.740 --> 0:30:55.000 much information that is uncertain at the time of spread. 0:30:55.020 --> 0:30:57.320 So just to emphasize that it's really a very useful 0:30:57.340 --> 0:31:00.300 tool for us. Yeah, that has roots in crisis informatics. 0:31:01.040 --> 0:31:04.240 As Danielle mentioned, we've spent a lot of time looking 0:31:04.400 --> 0:31:07.530 at election rumors in particular. When we first started in 2020, 0:31:07.530 --> 0:31:10.390 we didn't actually know everything that we were getting into. 0:31:10.850 --> 0:31:12.330 There was a lot of stuff that was novel to us. 0:31:12.390 --> 0:31:15.170 We were researchers. We had some familiarity with rumors in general, 0:31:15.610 --> 0:31:18.130 online spaces, but we didn't know as much about elections. 0:31:18.610 --> 0:31:22.160 And so we started seeing very similar rumors online. And 0:31:22.280 --> 0:31:24.900 even when rumors weren't using the exact same claims, they 0:31:24.980 --> 0:31:29.750 often seemed to mislead in fairly predictable ways. And so 0:31:29.890 --> 0:31:32.330 we've actually just published this in our sub stack, what 0:31:32.370 --> 0:31:35.430 we call the six ways that rigged election rumors mislead. 0:31:35.450 --> 0:31:38.680 So just like start at the outset. There are cases 0:31:38.980 --> 0:31:43.260 where there is no evidence to support a particular claim. However, 0:31:43.820 --> 0:31:45.480 most of the time in the work that we do 0:31:45.520 --> 0:31:47.900 and the rumors that we look at, it's pretty rare 0:31:48.160 --> 0:31:51.930 to have these things that is either fabricated or no evidence. 0:31:52.250 --> 0:31:55.090 There's usually some sort of like photo or video or 0:31:55.130 --> 0:31:58.469 the picture of a ballot or a lawsuit that is 0:31:58.700 --> 0:32:03.220 catalyzing rumoring. It often involves these misinterpretations of the evidence 0:32:03.240 --> 0:32:05.580 that is available. I think one of the things that 0:32:05.620 --> 0:32:08.640 we saw last election cycle and we're seeing again this 0:32:08.940 --> 0:32:12.640 election cycle are rumors about Starlink, for example. We're saying 0:32:12.660 --> 0:32:15.070 I think some folks, especially I think there's like an 0:32:15.130 --> 0:32:19.610 Elon Musk documentary coming out, claims about somewhat incriminating looking 0:32:19.670 --> 0:32:22.830 texts about lasers in space, which. It gets into the 0:32:22.870 --> 0:32:25.990 realm of conspiracy theories. But in the work that we do, 0:32:26.010 --> 0:32:29.209 when we see rumors, people will see that, you know, 0:32:29.230 --> 0:32:31.110 Musk seems to have some sort of conflict of interest. 0:32:31.130 --> 0:32:33.920 They connect it to voting machines or statistics. And then 0:32:33.960 --> 0:32:36.440 they start coming up with these theories about, you know, 0:32:36.460 --> 0:32:38.400 that there's no like solid evidence, but they're coming with 0:32:38.420 --> 0:32:42.209 these theories about how, yeah, maybe there's Starlink lasers that 0:32:42.230 --> 0:32:43.390 are manipulating voting machines. 0:32:44.000 --> 0:32:44.280 Yeah. 0:32:44.760 --> 0:32:47.380 The next category here would be like fake or falsified evidence. 0:32:47.500 --> 0:32:50.740 So this is the truly oftentimes I think when talking 0:32:50.770 --> 0:32:52.590 about AI, this is what people are really worried about. 0:32:52.750 --> 0:32:55.989 So deep fakes, which is like synthetically generated videos or 0:32:56.110 --> 0:32:59.870 photos that look real, but are AI generated. And again, 0:32:59.890 --> 0:33:01.710 this is one that is like it's we've seen it 0:33:01.910 --> 0:33:05.490 and they are increasingly prevalent, certainly compared to 2020. But 0:33:05.850 --> 0:33:08.510 it's not the primary driver of the rumoring that we 0:33:08.590 --> 0:33:11.310 see in the work that we do. We're often sometimes 0:33:11.350 --> 0:33:14.520 seeing kind of low quality photos or videos. that are 0:33:14.560 --> 0:33:18.100 catalyzing rumoring or in this current environment, oftentimes official statements 0:33:18.660 --> 0:33:21.560 or actions from the administration and that lead audiences to 0:33:21.600 --> 0:33:24.220 become either supportive or skeptical of the things that are 0:33:24.240 --> 0:33:28.330 being said. I think the misinterpreted evidence is the next 0:33:28.350 --> 0:33:31.870 category for us. And misinterpreted evidence, I think, is one 0:33:31.910 --> 0:33:34.710 of the more common ones that we see where we see, 0:33:34.750 --> 0:33:38.100 I think, for example, someone might be ballot harvesting is 0:33:38.160 --> 0:33:40.620 one of the tropes or the most common claims here. 0:33:40.660 --> 0:33:43.620 Ballot harvesting actually is an interesting example because there are 0:33:43.680 --> 0:33:47.180 states that that allow what is legally called ballot harvesting, 0:33:47.200 --> 0:33:49.340 which is the ability to drop off multiple ballots, usually 0:33:49.380 --> 0:33:51.890 for a family member. But that is decided on a 0:33:51.940 --> 0:33:54.690 per state basis. However, it's been kind of wrapped up 0:33:54.730 --> 0:33:58.550 into a larger narrative that ballot harvesting is illegally and 0:33:58.570 --> 0:34:04.390 intentionally perpetrated primarily by Democrat organized groups to collect ballots 0:34:04.650 --> 0:34:10.590 from different individuals, oftentimes homeless folks, people in retirement homes, 0:34:11.150 --> 0:34:14.810 certainly commonly non-citizen voters. And that people are illegally dropping 0:34:14.870 --> 0:34:19.210 off these allegedly false ballots through ballot harvesting. So that's 0:34:19.330 --> 0:34:21.009 a little bit on the term there. 0:34:21.370 --> 0:34:21.609 Yeah. 0:34:21.830 --> 0:34:24.070 But oftentimes the evidence for that is like the picture 0:34:24.670 --> 0:34:28.170 of someone dropping off multiple envelopes that is inherently ambiguous. 0:34:28.390 --> 0:34:30.670 So it's not really, it doesn't support the claims that 0:34:30.690 --> 0:34:33.310 people are making based off of evidence that spreads. 0:34:33.410 --> 0:34:33.549 Yeah. 0:34:34.450 --> 0:34:34.779 Yeah. 0:34:35.430 --> 0:34:38.589 I think a lot about the camera versus 2020 or 0:34:38.670 --> 0:34:40.609 one of the later elections. But I think a lot 0:34:40.650 --> 0:34:45.759 about the election worker moving the bin full of votes 0:34:45.820 --> 0:34:49.120 or ballots under a table and then everybody freaking out 0:34:49.260 --> 0:34:53.860 online about that. That strikes me as misinterpreted evidence or 0:34:53.880 --> 0:34:56.680 like you see something that, you know, could suggest, but 0:34:56.700 --> 0:35:00.640 it just ends up spinning up based on narratives that 0:35:00.680 --> 0:35:01.660 people sort of propagate. 0:35:02.670 --> 0:35:06.410 We say at the CIP, everything is a conspiracy when 0:35:06.430 --> 0:35:10.710 you don't know how anything works. So elections are confusing. 0:35:10.790 --> 0:35:14.589 Trust me, even on this team rules, there are rule changes. 0:35:14.830 --> 0:35:18.080 And because in the United States, election rules and laws 0:35:18.100 --> 0:35:22.420 are adjudicated at the jurisdictional level. Like we've literally thousands 0:35:22.520 --> 0:35:27.020 of different cases and rule systems and machines in this 0:35:27.060 --> 0:35:29.980 country about like how people vote. So it's different state 0:35:30.000 --> 0:35:34.120 by state. And there's a lot of weird objects or 0:35:34.780 --> 0:35:37.969 protocol or procedures that people don't know what's going on. 0:35:38.070 --> 0:35:41.910 So things can change. look very suspicious especially when there's 0:35:41.930 --> 0:35:45.750 like a mundane object like a backpack or a box 0:35:46.250 --> 0:35:48.270 and someone takes a picture of that oh my gosh 0:35:48.290 --> 0:35:50.550 they put the ballot in the backpack or the bag 0:35:50.570 --> 0:35:52.569 or the box and then they moved it when that's 0:35:52.590 --> 0:35:54.590 actually just like a really mundane thing that's part of 0:35:54.630 --> 0:35:58.989 somebody's procedure but you can wrap that up in intentionally 0:35:59.030 --> 0:36:02.529 mischaracterized way to create this impression that something nefarious is 0:36:02.570 --> 0:36:05.940 going on when it's just business as usual actually. 0:36:16.130 --> 0:36:18.129 I think, you know, I want to talk at some 0:36:18.150 --> 0:36:21.730 point about malevolent actors and all of this and where 0:36:21.770 --> 0:36:25.080 this starts to drift into broader conspiracism. But I think 0:36:26.040 --> 0:36:29.120 it would be valuable to just take a second and 0:36:29.670 --> 0:36:32.910 Talk about this election. You know, what is new in 0:36:33.310 --> 0:36:37.200 the election rumor mill? I am curious about the something 0:36:37.239 --> 0:36:39.820 you mentioned with Trump saying he's going to offer a 0:36:39.840 --> 0:36:43.469 million dollars for people for reporting fraud or something like that. 0:36:43.489 --> 0:36:46.790 This fraud.gov. Can we talk a little bit about what's 0:36:46.810 --> 0:36:49.649 happening right now? Stephen and I were just talking about 0:36:49.690 --> 0:36:52.469 this beforehand and there are a couple of things. So 0:36:52.489 --> 0:36:53.950 I'll sort of list them out and then we can 0:36:53.989 --> 0:36:57.870 go deeper. One is the power dynamics are different. Trump 0:36:57.930 --> 0:37:01.400 is president this time. He has control over the executive 0:37:01.420 --> 0:37:06.600 branch and DOJ and has access to like powerful lawyers 0:37:06.660 --> 0:37:08.120 who can sue states. 0:37:08.680 --> 0:37:12.060 That's different, right? The power dynamics have changed. That has 0:37:12.200 --> 0:37:16.610 meant that secondly, we see a lot more rumoring on 0:37:16.650 --> 0:37:21.410 the left about And in left-leaning or pro-democracy communities who 0:37:21.450 --> 0:37:25.440 are really anxious around how our elections are going down 0:37:25.460 --> 0:37:29.520 and if the federal government will interfere. So there's a 0:37:29.640 --> 0:37:33.180 heightened sense of anxiety so that a lot of the 0:37:33.260 --> 0:37:35.600 rumoring that we used to see on the right around... 0:37:35.890 --> 0:37:39.930 ballot machines and like screens switching votes or which we 0:37:39.950 --> 0:37:42.810 saw last week in Tennessee with Dolly Parton's sister saying 0:37:42.850 --> 0:37:45.710 that voting machine screen was switching her vote like when 0:37:45.730 --> 0:37:47.649 there was a revenue and she voted how she wanted 0:37:47.690 --> 0:37:50.739 in the end like there's like hyper anxiety on the 0:37:50.800 --> 0:37:54.440 left so that's like the second thing and then the 0:37:54.480 --> 0:37:57.810 third thing I would say is also we have the 0:37:57.969 --> 0:38:02.410 addition of prediction markets and profiting that are playing. So 0:38:03.090 --> 0:38:09.390 that also has added another layer of visualizations and speculation 0:38:09.410 --> 0:38:12.359 that can be used as evidence of like, oh my gosh, well, 0:38:12.680 --> 0:38:15.980 the odds were that we see this in the Brazilian election. 0:38:16.239 --> 0:38:18.040 Bolsonaro was going to win. And then all of a 0:38:18.080 --> 0:38:18.880 sudden the odds. 0:38:18.760 --> 0:38:20.780 Flipped and Lula's winning. 0:38:20.920 --> 0:38:23.940 And the odds are for Lula. It must not, someone 0:38:23.960 --> 0:38:26.460 must have interfered with this when Lula, Prediction markets are 0:38:26.500 --> 0:38:29.500 just betting markets. They're not official polling. 0:38:29.680 --> 0:38:30.100 Yeah. 0:38:30.280 --> 0:38:32.440 So I think like there are these three things. And 0:38:32.540 --> 0:38:35.120 I know Stephen has done some work on like the 0:38:35.180 --> 0:38:39.850 power dynamics of election conspiracies as well. I didn't know 0:38:39.890 --> 0:38:41.870 if you wanted like we can like go into in 0:38:41.910 --> 0:38:43.589 depth on these three things if you would like. 0:38:44.260 --> 0:38:46.840 Yeah, I think it could be worth diving into. And 0:38:47.489 --> 0:38:49.969 I just, you have me thinking about like Kalshi and 0:38:50.010 --> 0:38:54.029 Polymarket and all this, and it's just how unbelievably frustrating 0:38:54.070 --> 0:38:57.450 it is to me, this narrative that these are accurate 0:38:57.489 --> 0:39:00.629 sources of information or because collectively people have put their 0:39:00.670 --> 0:39:03.570 money on something for some reason that is now considered 0:39:03.590 --> 0:39:08.270 a good actual odds maker. We're talking about, you know, 0:39:08.390 --> 0:39:12.859 random political gamblers on the internet. I just, it makes 0:39:12.900 --> 0:39:15.820 me go crazy, but You did also bring up the, 0:39:15.960 --> 0:39:18.400 you know, the Dolly Parton sister case where she was 0:39:18.760 --> 0:39:21.759 there was speculation around if this machine in Tennessee was 0:39:21.800 --> 0:39:23.950 switching a vote. But it seemed like this was boiled 0:39:23.989 --> 0:39:29.230 down largely to touchscreen glitches and errors, which obviously this 0:39:29.290 --> 0:39:29.930 is a serious problem. 0:39:30.070 --> 0:39:30.630 Problem. 0:39:31.190 --> 0:39:33.640 But I do notice it seems like there is this 0:39:34.090 --> 0:39:38.840 trend of the misattribution of intent around these different errors 0:39:38.900 --> 0:39:42.760 in our election system. And I'm curious about how social 0:39:42.800 --> 0:39:47.020 media makes that worse. But also, yeah, we can dive 0:39:47.140 --> 0:39:49.219 into some of the things you mentioned as well too, but. 0:39:50.180 --> 0:39:52.340 I'll say like, you know, we were talking about the 0:39:52.400 --> 0:39:55.399 six ways rigged election rumors mislead. And there are those 0:39:55.460 --> 0:39:57.299 three other ways that we didn't finish, which is like, 0:39:57.540 --> 0:40:01.430 there's real evidence with real voting issues, right? So the 0:40:01.469 --> 0:40:03.930 problem is, as in the case with Dolly Parton's sister 0:40:04.090 --> 0:40:07.509 and her touchscreen not working, some folks would exaggerate the 0:40:07.550 --> 0:40:10.390 impact and say, oh my gosh, this must only be 0:40:10.450 --> 0:40:12.690 happening to Democrats or, oh my gosh, this is only 0:40:12.710 --> 0:40:14.430 going to happen to Republicans. And then it's going to 0:40:14.469 --> 0:40:17.450 change election results. When in the end, Dolly Parton's sister 0:40:17.489 --> 0:40:19.710 cast her ballot the way she wanted to pass. So 0:40:20.120 --> 0:40:24.509 There's not like a huge impact on election results necessarily. 0:40:24.850 --> 0:40:27.310 The second one is ignoring the remedies. Like there are 0:40:27.430 --> 0:40:30.170 backup paper ballots in those cases. There are things that 0:40:30.190 --> 0:40:32.690 are going to solve those problems. Oftentimes, by the time 0:40:32.710 --> 0:40:34.989 you even hear about the rumor, it might have already 0:40:35.010 --> 0:40:38.740 been solved for. And then third is misattributing the intent, 0:40:38.860 --> 0:40:40.299 like saying that this is part of some sort of 0:40:40.380 --> 0:40:44.300 nefarious conspiracy scheme. When it's not like, oh, for instance, 0:40:44.380 --> 0:40:47.339 ballots being dumped in a dumpster. You know, we see 0:40:47.360 --> 0:40:49.040 this in Washington state this week. 0:40:49.360 --> 0:40:49.560 Right. 0:40:49.620 --> 0:40:53.120 Someone's like this must be an intentional part of election 0:40:53.140 --> 0:40:56.530 suppression by Republicans putting these ballots in a dumpster somewhere. 0:40:57.130 --> 0:40:59.730 And that's usually just not the case. Like that intention 0:40:59.810 --> 0:41:02.690 isn't necessarily there. So I would say like those are 0:41:02.710 --> 0:41:05.020 some things to really keep an eye out for. There 0:41:05.040 --> 0:41:08.420 are always anomalies or challenges or things that break or 0:41:08.460 --> 0:41:11.339 things that happen during elections, but the ways in which 0:41:11.360 --> 0:41:16.690 they actually impact elections. Votes and outcomes ignore remedies or 0:41:17.150 --> 0:41:20.149 misintribute the intent or make it seem like this big 0:41:20.190 --> 0:41:24.340 conspiracy thing. It's just not necessarily. That's how it misleads 0:41:24.380 --> 0:41:26.580 the public. And that's where you can kind of get 0:41:26.640 --> 0:41:29.700 wrapped up also in fretting about things if you don't 0:41:29.800 --> 0:41:33.310 slow down and really think, OK, what's really happening here? 0:41:33.830 --> 0:41:33.989 Yeah. 0:41:34.340 --> 0:41:37.400 Yeah, I think to add on to that, there's kind 0:41:37.420 --> 0:41:39.540 of two distinctions to make here as well. 0:41:39.560 --> 0:41:40.760 Right now, we're talking about rumors. 0:41:41.020 --> 0:41:42.980 I think one thing to call out is oftentimes these 0:41:43.180 --> 0:41:45.640 ways that mislead, they co-occur within a single rumor. So, 0:41:46.080 --> 0:41:49.939 you know, the machines flipping votes, for example, we see 0:41:50.000 --> 0:41:52.500 rumors like that, and they'll be like, okay, this is suspicious. 0:41:52.800 --> 0:41:56.680 And they start exaggerating impact, which usually ties into this intent. 0:41:56.719 --> 0:41:59.459 So it's saying, oh, this is primarily impacting conservative voters 0:41:59.500 --> 0:42:03.160 or Democratic voters, and therefore mislead. It must be the 0:42:03.180 --> 0:42:05.859 goal of the Trump administration or the Democratic Party that's 0:42:05.920 --> 0:42:08.980 leading to this targeting. So these ways are ways that 0:42:09.020 --> 0:42:11.840 we have articulated how we see how rumors mislead, but 0:42:11.860 --> 0:42:14.739 they often are misleading in multiple ways at the same time. 0:42:15.200 --> 0:42:18.800 They resonate with these larger narratives. So there's no single 0:42:18.860 --> 0:42:20.940 rumor that just exists in a vacuum. When we see 0:42:20.980 --> 0:42:25.239 these rumors spreading, they're resonating with political rhetoric. And so 0:42:25.410 --> 0:42:29.460 to have the machine slipping vote in a larger political 0:42:29.520 --> 0:42:34.060 conversation about election integrity, about claims and like all across 0:42:34.080 --> 0:42:36.479 the political spectrum, we're seeing claims of fraud or people 0:42:36.500 --> 0:42:39.489 being afraid that different parts of the election administration are 0:42:39.530 --> 0:42:42.070 being manipulated. And so these rumors, then they exist as 0:42:42.090 --> 0:42:46.430 these plausible explanations to explain things that we don't fully understand. 0:42:46.969 --> 0:42:48.500 And I think maybe one of the things to emphasize 0:42:48.560 --> 0:42:51.980 and separate then is the rumoring from election administration itself, 0:42:52.260 --> 0:42:55.460 where oftentimes just because someone doesn't know what that remedy is, 0:42:55.900 --> 0:42:57.620 that doesn't mean there isn't a remedy, but that doesn't 0:42:57.660 --> 0:43:00.319 mean that there isn't a security or a safeguard in 0:43:00.400 --> 0:43:02.049 place to make sure that votes are counted, to make 0:43:02.070 --> 0:43:06.570 sure that that malfunctioning screen doesn't disenfranchise someone, doesn't prevent 0:43:06.610 --> 0:43:09.250 them being able to vote. And as Danielle said, in 0:43:09.270 --> 0:43:11.649 those cases, people were still able to vote. It's just, 0:43:11.670 --> 0:43:13.650 it didn't work as perfectly as we would want it 0:43:13.670 --> 0:43:15.410 to work. And I think it's important to remember that 0:43:15.760 --> 0:43:18.430 Elections are really complicated. When we look at elections in 0:43:18.450 --> 0:43:21.230 the United States, they are not centrally run. Every state 0:43:21.330 --> 0:43:23.630 has districts that are running it based off of their 0:43:24.070 --> 0:43:27.410 local laws and regulations. And so this is a very 0:43:27.489 --> 0:43:32.840 complicated process that involves both electronic systems, human organizations, and 0:43:32.890 --> 0:43:34.770 a lot of things that have gone through a lot 0:43:34.790 --> 0:43:36.650 of vetting to get into place. And election administrators, it's 0:43:36.670 --> 0:43:38.969 their full-time job to make sure that those safeguards are 0:43:38.989 --> 0:43:40.870 in place. And even with that, things do go wrong. 0:43:41.110 --> 0:43:43.920 It's just part of every system is imperfect. Things will 0:43:43.960 --> 0:43:45.660 naturally go wrong. And the goal is to make sure 0:43:45.680 --> 0:43:49.540 that there are safeguards in place, backups for remedies when 0:43:49.580 --> 0:43:52.279 things don't work out the way we want them to. 0:44:03.380 --> 0:44:07.120 I imagine this has, like you mentioned, power dynamics. This 0:44:07.360 --> 0:44:11.240 interfaces a lot with that as well. I am still 0:44:11.520 --> 0:44:13.930 sort of stuck on this idea of Trump paying. What 0:44:13.950 --> 0:44:16.210 did you say? He offered to pay people a million 0:44:16.250 --> 0:44:18.390 dollars to report fraud? 0:44:19.150 --> 0:44:19.770 Yeah. 0:44:20.030 --> 0:44:22.390 Could you elaborate on that? What is that exactly? 0:44:22.410 --> 0:44:24.109 Yeah. 0:44:25.430 --> 0:44:29.430 Like right before we stepped into this interview, Trump posted 0:44:29.530 --> 0:44:33.210 on Truth Social that, There would be a million dollar 0:44:33.250 --> 0:44:40.180 reward for anyone who reported fraud in this or previous elections. 0:44:40.680 --> 0:44:44.600 And he instructed folks to go to fraud.gov to do so. Now, 0:44:44.640 --> 0:44:47.520 fraud.gov has existed for a while now. It's like a 0:44:47.620 --> 0:44:52.720 way to report like welfare fraud, Medicare fraud, contracting fraud, 0:44:52.780 --> 0:44:55.450 like all sorts of types of fraud. And it's sort 0:44:55.469 --> 0:44:58.540 of like part of this participatory effort to like get 0:44:58.560 --> 0:45:03.620 the public involved in engaging in essentially like a hunt 0:45:04.000 --> 0:45:10.100 for fraud. But what's, what's ironic is we could not, 0:45:10.160 --> 0:45:13.180 so we can, this is serious, but Tina Peters, who 0:45:13.239 --> 0:45:17.950 was a quote unquote election integrity activist in Colorado and 0:45:18.410 --> 0:45:23.530 previous election who had like intentionally tried, essentially committed voter 0:45:23.570 --> 0:45:29.250 fraud and was indicted and charged and imprisoned as with 0:45:29.370 --> 0:45:31.980 felony offense for election fraud, essentially. 0:45:32.100 --> 0:45:32.660 Oh, my God. 0:45:33.060 --> 0:45:36.560 And then was had her sentence commuted by the Democratic 0:45:36.620 --> 0:45:38.120 governor of Colorado recently. 0:45:38.160 --> 0:45:39.080 So she was let out of prison. 0:45:39.120 --> 0:45:44.440 Like, would someone who reported that get a million dollar reward? 0:45:44.520 --> 0:45:44.820 Yeah. 0:45:45.160 --> 0:45:48.040 So I think it's important to note that there's a 0:45:48.140 --> 0:45:53.310 lot of showmanship here. There's the bark and then there's 0:45:53.350 --> 0:45:58.450 the bite of the powers that be. The bark is saying, 0:45:58.930 --> 0:46:01.930 oh my gosh, there's so much election fraud. Look at, 0:46:02.030 --> 0:46:03.770 you know, we saw last week in California, look at 0:46:03.830 --> 0:46:09.509 the 20,000 person list of alleged non-citizen voters. Oh my gosh, look, 0:46:09.670 --> 0:46:12.470 every day we have a new DOJ, DHS and White 0:46:12.510 --> 0:46:15.920 House press release saying that we have arrested or charged 0:46:16.080 --> 0:46:20.020 more alleged non-citizen voters. But in fact, our analysis has 0:46:20.040 --> 0:46:22.799 shown that Sometimes they're repeating the same names that they 0:46:22.820 --> 0:46:26.730 were repeated the day before. But it creates this what's 0:46:26.770 --> 0:46:29.129 called immediate theory, like a pseudo event, like you're drawing 0:46:29.250 --> 0:46:32.290 all this attention to this perceived problem when it's a 0:46:32.330 --> 0:46:37.000 drop in the bucket compared to actual impact on elections 0:46:37.180 --> 0:46:41.200 or these are allegations. They're not proven. There's something about 0:46:41.219 --> 0:46:46.810 that's different this time when the president and. his administration 0:46:46.830 --> 0:46:52.390 are using their power and their legitimacy as heads of 0:46:52.640 --> 0:46:56.939 entire departments of justice to make these allegations that seem 0:46:57.080 --> 0:46:59.800 a lot bigger than they in fact are, or just 0:46:59.860 --> 0:47:04.719 misleading entirely. And that is incredibly challenging and problematic. And 0:47:04.760 --> 0:47:09.900 that's why it creates that anxiety amongst left and liberal 0:47:09.980 --> 0:47:16.140 folks that president might interfere or intervene because with bounties 0:47:16.180 --> 0:47:20.029 essentially being posted for election fraud, who isn't to be 0:47:20.070 --> 0:47:22.190 afraid of that? But I think the important thing to 0:47:22.230 --> 0:47:25.770 remember is the numbers game here. Like at the end 0:47:25.790 --> 0:47:27.410 of the day, and this is a massive country with 0:47:27.469 --> 0:47:32.210 election administration carried out on a hyper-local level. And as 0:47:32.250 --> 0:47:35.280 we've noted, like you can make these allegations that you're 0:47:35.320 --> 0:47:40.549 going to essentially sue Alaska to stop certifying its election 0:47:40.590 --> 0:47:42.779 because there are two guys with a similar sounding name 0:47:42.840 --> 0:47:45.600 on the ballot and maybe people will be confused. Like 0:47:46.060 --> 0:47:47.799 we saw that last week, right? That's like a kind 0:47:47.820 --> 0:47:51.299 of spurious lawsuit right there that doesn't seem to have 0:47:51.340 --> 0:47:55.780 much precedent. But the fact that there's this constant like bark, bark, bark, bark, 0:47:55.820 --> 0:47:59.219 like more problem, more problem, more problem when it's like 0:47:59.360 --> 0:48:01.640 kind of maybe the same problems that keep being repeated. 0:48:02.450 --> 0:48:04.890 it makes your eardrums bleed. So like the bark is 0:48:04.930 --> 0:48:08.100 just sort of hurting, even if it's not a direct bite, 0:48:08.340 --> 0:48:12.380 like direct federal interference by sending say ice to the polls. 0:48:12.940 --> 0:48:14.660 So these are like different things. And we have to 0:48:14.700 --> 0:48:17.690 remember to like turn the volume down and focus on 0:48:17.730 --> 0:48:19.710 what we can do. And that's like what we say 0:48:19.730 --> 0:48:23.750 in our suggestions to election officials, to journalists, to creators, 0:48:24.010 --> 0:48:26.410 to always go back to what you can do to 0:48:26.450 --> 0:48:29.700 protect your vote, to vote early, to make sure to 0:48:29.940 --> 0:48:32.900 track your ballot. Each state has different tracking mechanisms to 0:48:32.940 --> 0:48:35.259 make sure that your ballot got counted, to drop it 0:48:35.340 --> 0:48:37.680 off in secure locations, right? Like all of these different 0:48:37.700 --> 0:48:40.460 things that you can do to make sure that your 0:48:40.500 --> 0:48:44.759 ballot is safe and counted instead of getting caught up 0:48:44.780 --> 0:48:48.240 in these larger narratives, which we don't want to deny 0:48:48.260 --> 0:48:52.719 are very frustrating and create this sense of insecurity and 0:48:52.739 --> 0:48:56.069 mistrust in our elections. But to just remember the numbers 0:48:56.120 --> 0:48:58.799 game here, And a number of people who are going 0:48:58.820 --> 0:49:01.340 to cast their ballots versus the small number that are 0:49:01.360 --> 0:49:04.100 being accused of this fraud is very, very different. 0:49:04.820 --> 0:49:05.120 Yeah. 0:49:05.260 --> 0:49:07.480 To add on a little bit of detail to what 0:49:07.500 --> 0:49:11.110 Danielle has already mentioned here, particularly around this, like motivating 0:49:11.130 --> 0:49:13.430 people to look for evidence in the power dynamics here. 0:49:13.730 --> 0:49:16.890 We have seen that kind of call to activate these 0:49:16.969 --> 0:49:18.830 audiences to go out and look for evidence. 0:49:19.230 --> 0:49:19.850 That is not new. 0:49:20.239 --> 0:49:23.580 What's new right now is the power that the folks 0:49:23.600 --> 0:49:26.840 who are making those calls have. There's a group called 0:49:26.940 --> 0:49:29.480 the Election Integrity Network, which is run by an election 0:49:29.500 --> 0:49:33.060 denier named Clayton Mitchell, who has had this like national 0:49:33.200 --> 0:49:36.319 kind of activist organization that has been doing very similar work. 0:49:36.570 --> 0:49:39.330 So they've been recruiting volunteers to look for evidence in 0:49:39.840 --> 0:49:44.520 of perceived fraud, they amplify that evidence. And oftentimes it's 0:49:44.540 --> 0:49:46.060 the type of thing that we see in our work 0:49:46.160 --> 0:49:48.980 where they look at an ambiguous picture and it shows 0:49:49.020 --> 0:49:52.239 something completely different from what they think it shows. When 0:49:52.260 --> 0:49:54.360 you have enough people who are engaging in this, it 0:49:54.400 --> 0:49:57.880 can create the illusion that something real is occurring. So 0:49:57.900 --> 0:50:00.000 a lot of this is like retroactively trying to find 0:50:00.060 --> 0:50:02.359 evidence that supports the claims that have been made that 0:50:02.480 --> 0:50:05.200 are genuinely unfounded. So for example, when we look at 0:50:05.460 --> 0:50:08.100 claims of non-citizen voters, which is one of the largest 0:50:08.320 --> 0:50:09.940 narratives that we see in the work that we do, 0:50:10.480 --> 0:50:12.140 Brennan Center did a study to try to look at 0:50:12.320 --> 0:50:15.160 the number of non-citizen voters that actually vote in elections. 0:50:15.580 --> 0:50:18.360 And there's like point zero zero zero zero one percent 0:50:18.800 --> 0:50:22.170 of voters are non-citizen. So it's like, yeah, OK, occasionally 0:50:22.190 --> 0:50:24.270 there's a case that I think Danielle mentioned that the 0:50:24.290 --> 0:50:26.730 Department of Justice and the Department of Homeland Security have 0:50:26.750 --> 0:50:28.850 had these press releases where they're arresting in a very 0:50:28.910 --> 0:50:31.730 public way. Yeah, these these folks who are they're alleging 0:50:31.750 --> 0:50:34.150 and have not proven, but they're alleging that they have 0:50:34.350 --> 0:50:37.270 voted illegally in elections. So they're using that to create 0:50:37.290 --> 0:50:40.110 the illusion that something exists when the reality is the 0:50:40.250 --> 0:50:42.750 evidence is just really sparse. It's just not the issue 0:50:42.770 --> 0:50:44.489 that they're saying it is. And so it comes down 0:50:44.510 --> 0:50:46.810 to this numbers game. But there's a difference when we 0:50:46.850 --> 0:50:49.710 look at social media, when we look at media dynamics 0:50:49.770 --> 0:50:52.740 in general, very often people aren't looking at the statistics directly. 0:50:52.780 --> 0:50:54.300 They're taking people's word for it that this is an 0:50:54.340 --> 0:50:56.460 issue and the stories, they can be very salient and 0:50:56.480 --> 0:50:59.020 they spread. And those are what drive rumors are these 0:50:59.040 --> 0:51:02.040 like very sensational stories, things that that feel that maybe 0:51:02.080 --> 0:51:05.800 make us feel outraged or or sad or angry or 0:51:05.860 --> 0:51:08.080 some sort of emotional response to it. We wrote a 0:51:08.120 --> 0:51:11.020 piece in 2024 where we outlined some of what we 0:51:11.060 --> 0:51:14.790 call the evidence generation infrastructure. And this was under something 0:51:14.810 --> 0:51:17.230 that we call the three Cs of election contestation. So 0:51:17.250 --> 0:51:20.330 the first one was convince, which is convincing people that 0:51:20.350 --> 0:51:23.549 election fraud was happening. The second one is collect, where 0:51:23.570 --> 0:51:26.230 they go out and collect evidence of this perceived fraud, 0:51:26.250 --> 0:51:27.969 which is kind of what we're talking about now. And 0:51:27.989 --> 0:51:31.020 the second part is contest. So funneling that evidence into lawsuits, 0:51:31.500 --> 0:51:35.219 into these political narratives that then mobilize audiences and find 0:51:35.260 --> 0:51:38.600 ways to both contest elections legally and rhetorically on the 0:51:38.640 --> 0:51:39.300 political stage. 0:51:39.620 --> 0:51:39.870 Yeah. 0:51:40.190 --> 0:51:43.549 And so we see this intersection of governance, of now 0:51:43.610 --> 0:51:47.630 law enforcement, of court filings, as well as the political 0:51:47.650 --> 0:51:51.290 sphere where we see that what has... historically remained constrained 0:51:51.310 --> 0:51:54.030 to the political sphere of contesting elections rhetorically, but now 0:51:54.210 --> 0:51:56.729 it's seeping into many of these other spaces as well. 0:51:57.190 --> 0:51:59.870 But it all creates the illusion that something exists that 0:51:59.969 --> 0:52:01.070 doesn't actually exist. 0:52:03.040 --> 0:52:05.340 That's the end of what I've included from the interview, 0:52:05.480 --> 0:52:07.420 and I hope it was helpful for some of you. 0:52:07.440 --> 0:52:11.239 I find personally as a journalist who mingles with the 0:52:11.340 --> 0:52:15.520 content creation and social media spaces, it's very frustrating to 0:52:15.560 --> 0:52:18.840 me how fast these rumors can propagate on social media, 0:52:18.960 --> 0:52:21.520 and I feel it's best if we can avoid becoming 0:52:21.719 --> 0:52:25.730 unwitting agents of misinformation. I'm stealing some language from the 0:52:25.790 --> 0:52:28.870 CIP team, but some questions they said that are worth 0:52:28.989 --> 0:52:31.830 asking are, why am I hearing this? What are the 0:52:31.890 --> 0:52:35.850 incentives behind it? Does this contribute to someone's clicks, clout, 0:52:35.969 --> 0:52:39.500 or cash? Again, rumors can be true and But I 0:52:39.520 --> 0:52:41.820 guess it would be nice if we didn't all accidentally 0:52:41.880 --> 0:52:44.460 drive each other fucking crazy in the next few weeks, 0:52:44.540 --> 0:52:46.920 because I'm certain there will be people trying to do 0:52:47.000 --> 0:52:50.740 so intentionally. We have to assess the validity of rigged 0:52:50.800 --> 0:52:54.800 election claims and slow things down, especially amid a discourse 0:52:54.840 --> 0:52:58.140 that feels as if it's growing more and more conspiratorial. 0:52:58.840 --> 0:53:01.750 It's bound to be an exhausting process, and I wish 0:53:01.790 --> 0:53:12.430 you all luck. Hi everyone and welcome to the show. 0:53:12.710 --> 0:53:15.260 I'm very lucky to be joined again today by Vladimir 0:53:15.300 --> 0:53:20.360 Van Vilgenberg, who's a repeat guest, long-time journalist and reporter 0:53:20.400 --> 0:53:23.020 on Kurdistan and a very excellent source for this stuff. 0:53:23.040 --> 0:53:24.040 How are you doing today, Vladimir? 0:53:24.550 --> 0:53:27.010 I'm doing well, thank you. Thank you for this opportunity 0:53:27.030 --> 0:53:28.089 to be interviewed again by you. 0:53:28.510 --> 0:53:28.989 Yeah, of course. 0:53:29.030 --> 0:53:30.569 Thank you for your time and thanks for staying up 0:53:30.590 --> 0:53:30.870 so late. 0:53:31.590 --> 0:53:36.150 I guess, like, to begin with, We should recap the 0:53:36.190 --> 0:53:42.430 situation of Rojelati Kurdish groups, armed groups specifically, right? 0:53:43.010 --> 0:53:43.690 Who they are. 0:53:43.770 --> 0:53:45.310 And I realize we could take an hour to just 0:53:45.350 --> 0:53:46.110 explain who they are. 0:53:46.469 --> 0:53:46.689 Yeah. 0:53:46.730 --> 0:53:49.450 But like, can we briefly explain to people who they 0:53:49.650 --> 0:53:52.390 are and for the most part, where they are right now? 0:53:53.110 --> 0:53:57.109 So basically this Iranian Kurdish opposition parties, they have been 0:53:57.330 --> 0:53:59.230 active for a very long time. I mean, they have 0:53:59.250 --> 0:54:00.030 a long history. 0:54:00.050 --> 0:54:00.130 Yeah. 0:54:01.060 --> 0:54:05.040 In fighting with the Islamic Republic, and most of them, 0:54:05.100 --> 0:54:08.270 they were exiled a few years after they were military 0:54:08.350 --> 0:54:13.350 defeated by the Islamic Republic after the Islamic Revolution in 1979. 0:54:13.350 --> 0:54:17.250 And since then, they have been exiled in bases and 0:54:17.330 --> 0:54:21.110 camps in Iraqi Kurdistan. It's a large number of Iranian 0:54:21.130 --> 0:54:23.810 Kurdish parties. So if I would mention all the acronyms, 0:54:23.850 --> 0:54:27.850 you'll be very confused. But there's a number of them 0:54:27.910 --> 0:54:31.830 and they have camps around the province of Erbil and Slemani. 0:54:31.850 --> 0:54:36.010 And they have been targeted several times, hundreds of times 0:54:36.090 --> 0:54:40.509 during this February war. And there were around 19 people, 0:54:41.070 --> 0:54:43.649 members of the Iranian Kurdish parties. They were killed by 0:54:43.710 --> 0:54:48.580 Iranian drone strikes and missile strikes during this war. And 0:54:49.320 --> 0:54:52.860 currently they are sort of stuck in between because Iran 0:54:52.900 --> 0:54:56.290 is demanding that they are removed from Iraqi territory. And 0:54:56.910 --> 0:54:59.110 then you have the Iraqi Kurds that don't want to 0:54:59.150 --> 0:55:03.380 be seen selling out Iranian Kurdish fellow Iranian Kurds by force. 0:55:03.780 --> 0:55:07.670 kicking them out or giving them to Iran. So the 0:55:07.710 --> 0:55:09.670 Kurds are a bit stuck in the middle. And then 0:55:09.730 --> 0:55:14.290 you also have the withdrawal from the US-led coalition. Although 0:55:14.310 --> 0:55:17.610 the US-led coalition was mostly defending the US bases, they 0:55:17.630 --> 0:55:20.180 were not defending Iranian Kurdish parties, but sometimes they were 0:55:20.200 --> 0:55:24.020 taking out some drones or missiles that were going into 0:55:24.360 --> 0:55:27.340 the direction of Iranian Kurds, but that could have also 0:55:27.400 --> 0:55:31.040 gone into direction of, for instance, the consulate or the 0:55:31.080 --> 0:55:34.100 coalition base that is not there anymore. So that's sort 0:55:34.160 --> 0:55:35.800 of an overview. 0:55:36.420 --> 0:55:37.760 Yeah, I think that's a good overview. 0:55:38.140 --> 0:55:40.919 And so we're now in this position where these groups 0:55:40.940 --> 0:55:45.100 have bases close to the border, but in the Iraqi 0:55:45.140 --> 0:55:47.340 part of Kurdistan and the Iranian part of Kurdistan for 0:55:47.360 --> 0:55:50.600 the most part. But in recent days, people maybe will 0:55:50.620 --> 0:55:54.620 have seen that there has also been some conflict with 0:55:54.739 --> 0:55:58.830 one of these groups inside of what is now Iran. 0:55:59.250 --> 0:56:00.910 Can you explain a little bit of what's going on 0:56:00.930 --> 0:56:03.760 there and who... who the actors are in that case. 0:56:04.760 --> 0:56:05.120 Yeah. 0:56:05.180 --> 0:56:08.190 So I was telling you about the acronym soup of 0:56:08.330 --> 0:56:11.570 Iranian Kurdish factions. Um, but, but one of the factions 0:56:11.750 --> 0:56:15.549 that have been active is, which actually is an affiliate 0:56:15.790 --> 0:56:20.610 of the Kurdistan workers party from Turkey, which is engaged 0:56:20.670 --> 0:56:23.529 in a peace process with Ankara. So there have been 0:56:23.590 --> 0:56:29.200 some clashes. With Peshawar using drones in response to Iranian 0:56:29.320 --> 0:56:32.259 operations in the border areas of Iran, which is actually 0:56:32.280 --> 0:56:36.440 very close to the area where they have bases inside 0:56:36.500 --> 0:56:40.410 Iraqi Kurdistan near Panjshir in Halabja province on the border 0:56:40.450 --> 0:56:43.790 of Iran. So they have underground caves there and tunnels 0:56:44.190 --> 0:56:48.580 and they have people there. And since also the February war, 0:56:48.620 --> 0:56:53.160 there have been some occasional clashes between both sides. There 0:56:53.180 --> 0:56:56.930 was also a ceasefire actually between Peshawar and Iran in 0:56:56.950 --> 0:57:00.970 the past, which was brokered by Iraqi Kurds. But despite 0:57:01.010 --> 0:57:04.489 of the ceasefire always, even before the current war between 0:57:04.510 --> 0:57:07.550 the US and Iran, there was always tensions between Peshawar 0:57:07.610 --> 0:57:11.280 and Iran. And recently also there was a death sentence 0:57:11.340 --> 0:57:14.900 for one Iranian Kurdish activist close to the Peshawar and 0:57:15.000 --> 0:57:20.500 Iran recently. reaffirmed the death sentence for that female activist. 0:57:20.800 --> 0:57:23.700 So there are still sort of these tensions on the border. 0:57:23.760 --> 0:57:26.040 And Peshawar is also one of the few Iranian Kurdish 0:57:26.060 --> 0:57:28.860 factions that has a lot of experience with drones. And 0:57:28.900 --> 0:57:31.600 that's also due to their links to the PKK and 0:57:31.660 --> 0:57:35.360 also to the SDF. So the PKK and the SDF 0:57:35.400 --> 0:57:38.740 are basically the brother and sister parties of the PKK. 0:57:38.780 --> 0:57:41.860 They have this experience of fighting with drones. For instance, 0:57:41.900 --> 0:57:45.320 in Syria, the SDF fought with drones against the Syrian government. 0:57:46.040 --> 0:57:49.400 And other factions and also the PKK, they have been 0:57:50.300 --> 0:57:53.820 using drones and they have been experimenting with drones in 0:57:53.860 --> 0:57:56.530 the last few years. But there's now a peace process 0:57:56.590 --> 0:58:01.290 between Turkey and Ankara since 2024. And the PKK has said, 0:58:01.330 --> 0:58:03.210 we're going to disband. So they are in this process. 0:58:03.250 --> 0:58:05.350 But at the same time, that leaves out what is 0:58:05.370 --> 0:58:07.530 going to happen with the Iranian Kurdish brands, which is 0:58:07.630 --> 0:58:08.190 the Peshawar. 0:58:08.430 --> 0:58:08.590 Yeah. 0:58:09.230 --> 0:58:12.970 And now the situation is unclear what is exactly what's 0:58:12.990 --> 0:58:15.370 going to happen. Of course, we don't know if there's 0:58:15.390 --> 0:58:18.660 going to be new clashes between US and Iran. But 0:58:18.900 --> 0:58:21.120 at the same time, there have been some clashes between 0:58:21.460 --> 0:58:25.420 this group, Peshawar and Iran. And there also have been 0:58:27.500 --> 0:58:32.330 assassinations carried out by Iranian Kurdish political parties against Kurds 0:58:32.510 --> 0:58:36.370 working with the Iranian government and also others. So that's 0:58:36.410 --> 0:58:41.190 also have been like sort of a silent. small insurgency 0:58:41.290 --> 0:58:44.630 brewing in the Kurdish majority areas of Iran. But we 0:58:44.650 --> 0:58:48.070 should also not forget that this has always been brewing. 0:58:48.110 --> 0:58:53.450 There have been always movements and attacks and assassinations and 0:58:53.670 --> 0:58:58.050 protest movements. For instance, the Jina Amini protest movement that 0:58:58.370 --> 0:59:00.850 erupted over the death of an Iranian Kurdish lady in 0:59:01.130 --> 0:59:05.690 Iran by the morality police also sparked this huge widespread protest, 0:59:05.710 --> 0:59:08.650 which also spread through the Kurdish areas and where Iran 0:59:08.670 --> 0:59:11.620 actually accused the Iranian Kurdish opposition parties of being involved 0:59:11.660 --> 0:59:16.480 in that. So yeah, there have been always protest movements 0:59:16.640 --> 0:59:21.010 and unrest in Kurdish areas that were often ended with 0:59:21.050 --> 0:59:22.650 a crackdown by the Iranian state. 0:59:23.130 --> 0:59:23.550 Yeah. 0:59:23.750 --> 0:59:26.780 Like even in January... when we saw the biggest protests 0:59:27.460 --> 0:59:30.440 over the last couple of years, there were some, like 0:59:30.480 --> 0:59:33.260 I remember the PAK were posting videos of them, which 0:59:33.320 --> 0:59:36.940 is another of the acronym soup parties, were posting some 0:59:36.960 --> 0:59:40.180 videos of them like shooting at police stations and it's 0:59:40.200 --> 0:59:41.800 like a rising, falling tide. 0:59:42.400 --> 0:59:46.930 Yeah, yeah. Like in January, there were this anti-government protest 0:59:46.970 --> 0:59:51.270 that started in the bazaar of Tehran and Kurds mostly 0:59:51.310 --> 0:59:54.490 stayed out of these protests in January because also there 0:59:54.510 --> 0:59:58.930 was this idea that it was more monarchists that were 0:59:58.970 --> 1:00:01.390 involved in these protests and you know the monarchists are 1:00:01.430 --> 1:00:05.380 also very strongly against any form of Kurdish autonomy so 1:00:05.400 --> 1:00:08.160 the Kurds mostly yes stayed out there was like I 1:00:08.180 --> 1:00:11.800 think one strike and you also had the PAK Kurdistan 1:00:11.820 --> 1:00:14.280 Freedom Party that was saying that they were carrying out 1:00:14.320 --> 1:00:19.670 some actions in some areas like around Kermanshah and some 1:00:19.730 --> 1:00:23.770 other areas in that area around Kermanshah and Melekshah and 1:00:23.810 --> 1:00:26.979 some other areas so It was a bit confusing, like 1:00:27.020 --> 1:00:29.460 if some of these reports were true, but the Kurds 1:00:29.880 --> 1:00:32.160 in general were not very much involved in those protests 1:00:32.220 --> 1:00:34.760 as they were, for instance, in the past in the 1:00:34.800 --> 1:00:39.810 Jini Amina protest movement, where they were much more involved in, 1:00:39.930 --> 1:00:43.530 and in which also in response, Iran started to carry 1:00:43.570 --> 1:00:46.450 out drone strikes against Iranian Kurdish parties in Iraqi Kurdistan 1:00:46.490 --> 1:00:46.930 at the time. 1:00:47.710 --> 1:00:48.050 Yeah. 1:00:48.930 --> 1:00:49.410 So, yeah. 1:00:50.190 --> 1:00:52.720 And they continue to, like on the anniversary of Jini 1:00:52.780 --> 1:00:55.870 Amina's murder, I can't remember if it was the anniversary 1:00:55.890 --> 1:00:58.750 of her murder or her arrest, but they called a 1:00:58.790 --> 1:01:01.890 general strike this year, right? And then the IRGC sent 1:01:02.340 --> 1:01:05.880 significant numbers of troops, even to block the route to 1:01:05.920 --> 1:01:09.180 her grave, if I understand correctly, so people couldn't gather there. 1:01:09.200 --> 1:01:12.900 Yeah, and there was also a dispute again, which shows 1:01:12.940 --> 1:01:15.540 the disunity of the Iranian opposition about the father of 1:01:15.580 --> 1:01:18.760 Jina Amini using a Kurdish flag in a social media post. 1:01:19.140 --> 1:01:19.480 Oh, yeah. 1:01:20.000 --> 1:01:26.120 So it's also... The Iranian opposition is very much disunited, 1:01:26.440 --> 1:01:29.970 what we saw, despite the opportunities they had, which is 1:01:30.010 --> 1:01:33.450 very different, for instance, from the Iraqi opposition when the 1:01:33.490 --> 1:01:37.330 Americans moved to remove the Saddam Hussein regime. Despite all 1:01:37.350 --> 1:01:40.330 of the differences they had, the Shia, the Kurds, and 1:01:40.770 --> 1:01:43.010 some other Iraqi opposition parties, they sort of united at 1:01:43.070 --> 1:01:46.160 the time. But in Iran, we haven't seen. There were 1:01:46.200 --> 1:01:48.160 some attempts like that in the past, but they basically 1:01:48.240 --> 1:01:52.830 fell apart. Yeah, it also shows the disunity and the disorganization. 1:01:52.870 --> 1:01:55.910 But it's also very difficult, of course, to organize an 1:01:55.950 --> 1:01:58.430 opposition in exile when you're not on the ground and 1:01:58.490 --> 1:02:02.090 also when the neighboring countries do not accept the presence 1:02:02.160 --> 1:02:05.220 of such groups on their territory, for instance, which is 1:02:05.240 --> 1:02:07.840 very different, for instance, if you compare Iran to Syria, 1:02:07.880 --> 1:02:10.900 where in Syria the Assad regime pissed off so many 1:02:10.980 --> 1:02:13.720 of its neighbors, so many of its neighbors, even if 1:02:13.760 --> 1:02:17.730 they were not completely 100%, actively supporting insurgent groups against 1:02:17.750 --> 1:02:20.230 Assad regime, most of them were sort of tolerating it 1:02:20.450 --> 1:02:22.890 or allowing it to happen. So there was a lot 1:02:22.910 --> 1:02:27.390 of Gulf states and Turkey and other countries that supported 1:02:27.410 --> 1:02:30.840 basically the Syrian opposition against Assad regime. But for instance, 1:02:30.860 --> 1:02:34.260 in Iran, we never had such a situation, even Turkey, 1:02:34.280 --> 1:02:39.360 despite that there's a large Turkish speaking ethnic group. In Iran, 1:02:39.380 --> 1:02:43.410 you have the series and Turkmen. that Turkey was not 1:02:43.450 --> 1:02:46.990 supporting the overthrow of the Iranian government, for instance, or 1:02:47.010 --> 1:02:50.520 the other countries neighboring Iran were not so much happy. 1:02:50.580 --> 1:02:53.900 And even, for instance, the Iraqi Kurds were also not 1:02:53.940 --> 1:02:58.080 very much happy to become a target by Iran for 1:02:58.200 --> 1:03:01.600 having such a campaign, for instance, against that you had 1:03:01.660 --> 1:03:04.900 all these reports that the US and Israel were actively 1:03:05.040 --> 1:03:08.170 arming Iranian Kurds across the border. And then we saw 1:03:08.450 --> 1:03:11.270 statements recently, there was a forum, an annual forum in 1:03:11.330 --> 1:03:14.150 Arabia called the Miri Forum, where Iraqi Kurdish leaders were 1:03:14.190 --> 1:03:17.570 saying that this was very bad idea and that they 1:03:17.610 --> 1:03:20.720 were against it. And that actually that the rival ruling 1:03:20.740 --> 1:03:23.540 Iraqi Kurdish parties, the PUK and KDP, they both agreed 1:03:23.980 --> 1:03:27.680 to basically close the border and to prevent any attack 1:03:27.780 --> 1:03:31.260 from Iranian Kurdish parties towards Iran. And also that they 1:03:31.400 --> 1:03:33.720 coordinated on that fact, although they didn't even form a 1:03:34.080 --> 1:03:38.260 government yet to get the spice of elections taking place 1:03:38.280 --> 1:03:41.660 in 2024. They both sort of saw the threat of 1:03:42.340 --> 1:03:45.770 such a plan from Iranian Kurds to move towards intervening 1:03:45.810 --> 1:03:48.310 basically in Iran. And they really opposed that plan. And 1:03:48.330 --> 1:03:51.310 they also were allying that in Turkey, Turkey was also 1:03:51.350 --> 1:03:54.689 opposed in it because they were afraid of a second Rojava, 1:03:54.710 --> 1:03:57.669 you know, a second Kurdish autonomy on their border, like 1:03:57.710 --> 1:04:00.530 what happened in Syria. Yeah. I mean, even in Iraq 1:04:00.570 --> 1:04:03.190 in the beginning, when the U.S. overthrew the Saddam regime, 1:04:03.370 --> 1:04:06.010 Turkey was also opposed against the U.S. intervention because they 1:04:06.030 --> 1:04:08.550 were afraid of that. But now they sort of de 1:04:08.590 --> 1:04:12.600 facto accepted this Kurdistan region in Iraq. But in Syria, 1:04:12.640 --> 1:04:14.260 it was much different. They never accepted it. 1:04:14.260 --> 1:04:14.860 Yeah. 1:04:15.600 --> 1:04:18.320 So that's why it's all interconnected to each other. And 1:04:18.460 --> 1:04:19.980 it's very complicated. Yeah. 1:04:20.480 --> 1:04:20.740 Yes. 1:04:20.800 --> 1:04:21.240 Yeah. 1:04:21.440 --> 1:04:24.700 And like Turkey, it's still making military incursions into the 1:04:24.720 --> 1:04:28.640 Kurdistan region of Iraq to defend or defend its borders, 1:04:29.400 --> 1:04:32.440 even though it like, yeah, it's de facto accepted the KRG. 1:04:44.100 --> 1:04:46.100 We should talk a little bit about how the impact 1:04:46.140 --> 1:04:49.620 of like specifically, actually, the impact of American journalism. 1:04:50.240 --> 1:04:52.140 Has been in this situation, right? 1:04:52.180 --> 1:04:54.280 Because we had early on in the conflict, we had 1:04:54.320 --> 1:04:56.640 this report, I think there was a Barak Ravid thing, 1:04:56.660 --> 1:04:58.939 and then there was a Fox News thing, Barak Ravid 1:04:58.960 --> 1:05:02.140 works for Axios, about like, oh, the Kurds are amassing 1:05:02.200 --> 1:05:04.630 at the border and they're ready to invade Iran, right? 1:05:04.770 --> 1:05:09.670 Or even people from Iraqi southern Kurdistan are preparing to 1:05:09.930 --> 1:05:14.770 liberate their Kurds in eastern Kurdistan and Iran. And that 1:05:14.830 --> 1:05:18.280 reporting had very real consequences for Kurdistan, right? 1:05:18.340 --> 1:05:19.420 For Iraqi Kurdistan. 1:05:20.210 --> 1:05:23.010 Yeah, obviously it made Iraq and Kurdistan more a target 1:05:23.070 --> 1:05:27.580 for Iran. And there were like 1,000 drone and missile 1:05:27.600 --> 1:05:32.760 attacks on the Kurdistan region since 28 February. And you saw, 1:05:32.820 --> 1:05:35.800 for instance, that report of, I think it was Fox 1:05:35.840 --> 1:05:38.360 News reporter that was like posting on the next that 1:05:38.400 --> 1:05:40.820 saying that all the Iraqi Kurds are now like going 1:05:40.840 --> 1:05:43.120 towards the border and attack. I'm not sure whether the 1:05:43.140 --> 1:05:45.070 information was coming from, but I think it was actually 1:05:45.090 --> 1:05:47.230 the opposite. This was probably the Iraqi Kurds going to 1:05:47.250 --> 1:05:49.240 the border and To stop such an attack. 1:05:49.380 --> 1:05:51.160 To seal the borders. 1:05:51.260 --> 1:05:54.150 And that was actually revealed during this last forum, the 1:05:54.170 --> 1:05:57.330 midi forum in Erbil, where they were actually talking, the 1:05:57.630 --> 1:06:01.980 Iraqi Kurds were actually talking quite transparent about all what happened, basically. 1:06:02.570 --> 1:06:04.350 And they were saying, actually, we sent people to the 1:06:04.390 --> 1:06:07.850 border basically to stop such a basically threat and to 1:06:07.910 --> 1:06:10.140 tell Iran, like, we are not a threat to our 1:06:10.160 --> 1:06:14.200 neighboring country. So I think, yeah, there was like actually 1:06:14.260 --> 1:06:18.140 some of the reporting made the situation worse. But also, 1:06:18.200 --> 1:06:20.500 I'm not sure if there were people in the Trump 1:06:20.560 --> 1:06:24.850 administration leaking that on purpose to undermine such plans to, 1:06:24.910 --> 1:06:30.390 for because it was a fact that Iranian Kurds, they 1:06:30.430 --> 1:06:33.720 did get some support and there were some data that 1:06:33.760 --> 1:06:36.740 they received any weapons, but the Iranian Kurds were sort 1:06:36.760 --> 1:06:40.940 of preparing for the potential scenario of getting like air 1:06:40.980 --> 1:06:44.360 support and moving into Iran and attacking the Iranian government. 1:06:45.020 --> 1:06:47.160 But then I think Trump, he changed his mind at 1:06:47.360 --> 1:06:49.450 the last moment. So in the beginning, Trump was saying like, 1:06:49.510 --> 1:06:51.390 it's a good idea. I think he told Reuters at 1:06:51.410 --> 1:06:53.370 the time, it's a good idea that the Iranian Kurds 1:06:53.590 --> 1:06:56.710 do that. And then later he said, Well, it's not 1:06:56.750 --> 1:06:58.650 a good idea. I think they should not go into 1:06:58.870 --> 1:07:01.300 Iran and attack Iran. It's not a good idea. They're 1:07:01.340 --> 1:07:03.720 good fighters, but they should not do that. So I 1:07:03.760 --> 1:07:06.740 think it was also like a lobbying effort by, for instance, 1:07:06.760 --> 1:07:08.880 the Turkish government. There was like a lot of reporting 1:07:08.920 --> 1:07:12.110 that the Turkish president, Turkish President Erdogan at the time, 1:07:12.150 --> 1:07:14.350 just directly called Trump and told him this is not 1:07:14.370 --> 1:07:17.630 a good idea. Don't do that. And one time also Trump, 1:07:17.690 --> 1:07:19.850 he said something weird, I think in a press conference, 1:07:19.870 --> 1:07:21.950 he was saying that if Turkey would have a choice 1:07:21.990 --> 1:07:24.060 to choose which side of the war they will be, 1:07:24.080 --> 1:07:27.460 they would rather be on the other side of the conflict. 1:07:28.060 --> 1:07:30.260 So I think with that, he indirectly sort of suggested 1:07:30.300 --> 1:07:33.280 that Turkey would be willing to intervene if, for instance, 1:07:33.420 --> 1:07:36.030 Israel and the U.S. would support Kurds against the Iranian state. 1:07:36.050 --> 1:07:38.030 He didn't say that directly, but sort of I think 1:07:38.070 --> 1:07:40.510 it was more about that. I don't think that Turkey 1:07:40.550 --> 1:07:43.350 would intervene on behalf of Iran against Israel and the U.S., 1:07:44.060 --> 1:07:46.540 if there's not like a sort of thing that they fear, 1:07:46.600 --> 1:07:51.220 which is a Kurdish autonomy in Iran on its border, 1:07:51.800 --> 1:07:55.050 supported by the US and Israel. So I think it 1:07:55.070 --> 1:07:58.050 was like a reference basically to that, that they were, 1:07:58.870 --> 1:08:01.570 Turkey could have basically, that they were not really serious 1:08:01.610 --> 1:08:03.830 about it, but they were basically saying just what, for instance, 1:08:03.890 --> 1:08:06.090 in Syria in the past, when the US was supporting 1:08:06.110 --> 1:08:09.550 the SDF, at that time, Turkey said, well, US, if 1:08:09.590 --> 1:08:12.090 you continue to do that, we may be one day 1:08:12.110 --> 1:08:16.050 going to, jump in and cross the border and attack 1:08:16.090 --> 1:08:18.790 the Syrian Kurds. And you better find a way to 1:08:18.830 --> 1:08:20.990 get out at that moment, like, because we're going to 1:08:21.010 --> 1:08:23.830 go one night, we're going to go and come into Syria. 1:08:23.850 --> 1:08:26.150 And that's actually what they did in the end. After 1:08:26.189 --> 1:08:29.100 a peace process broke down between Turkish Kurds and the 1:08:29.140 --> 1:08:32.320 Turkish state after 2015, they launched like three or four 1:08:32.939 --> 1:08:37.600 big Turkish cross-border military offensives. And they're still there in 1:08:37.640 --> 1:08:39.040 Syria at the moment. 1:08:39.320 --> 1:08:39.540 Mm-hmm. 1:08:40.070 --> 1:08:42.050 So yeah, and they did the same in Iraqi Kurdistan. Well, 1:08:42.070 --> 1:08:45.500 there was no US support for the PKK in Iraqi Kurdistan, 1:08:46.400 --> 1:08:50.080 but Turkey also did like several military incursions for longer 1:08:50.160 --> 1:08:53.900 periods of time. And they actually increased their number of 1:08:53.939 --> 1:08:57.670 bases in the border areas in Iraqi Kurdistan and actually 1:08:57.689 --> 1:08:59.610 were able to remove some PKK positions from the border. 1:09:00.080 --> 1:09:03.760 the area because of their superiority in drones that they 1:09:03.800 --> 1:09:06.580 have developed over the recent years which is much more 1:09:06.620 --> 1:09:10.660 difficult for insurgents to fight against drones than against like. 1:09:10.550 --> 1:09:15.750 Regular airstrikes yeah yeah definitely and and yeah we saw 1:09:15.790 --> 1:09:19.180 that in Syria right like and very directly like I mean, 1:09:19.200 --> 1:09:22.020 we can look at the first Trump administration and see 1:09:22.040 --> 1:09:25.679 like a phone call between Trump and Erdogan that leads 1:09:25.780 --> 1:09:30.389 to US withdrawal, that leads to Turkish attacks on Syrian Kurds. 1:09:30.510 --> 1:09:33.370 Like Trump has previously expressed a lot of admiration for Erdogan, 1:09:33.390 --> 1:09:35.510 but like everything else, he kind of goes back and forth. 1:09:35.630 --> 1:09:39.229 He also kind of, at one point he was speaking 1:09:39.290 --> 1:09:43.349 very negatively about Iranian Kurds, like making this statement that 1:09:43.410 --> 1:09:47.200 they had been supplied with weapons in January and that 1:09:47.240 --> 1:09:50.360 they had been stolen or sold. I forget exactly what 1:09:50.400 --> 1:09:53.089 he was saying. It was a very strange press conference. 1:09:53.450 --> 1:09:56.030 Yeah, he was saying that they stole the weapons and 1:09:56.050 --> 1:09:58.900 he was basically saying like, Kurds are good fighters, but 1:09:58.939 --> 1:10:00.979 they fight only when they get paid and this kind 1:10:01.000 --> 1:10:01.960 of things, you know, so. 1:10:02.530 --> 1:10:03.590 Yeah. Yeah. 1:10:03.850 --> 1:10:07.330 Which was very confusing because as I mentioned at that time, 1:10:07.350 --> 1:10:09.490 there was not like a very big protest movement in 1:10:09.510 --> 1:10:11.809 the Kurdish areas. And also it would be difficult to 1:10:12.050 --> 1:10:14.650 get weapons to protesters in other areas because you have 1:10:14.689 --> 1:10:16.260 to cross this large territory. 1:10:16.270 --> 1:10:16.720 Yeah. 1:10:17.060 --> 1:10:19.720 Inside Iranian territory. Not that the Kurds don't have smugglers 1:10:19.860 --> 1:10:23.000 or something like that. There's a lot of cross-border smuggling 1:10:23.040 --> 1:10:25.220 of a lot of goods and stuff, you know, alcohol, 1:10:25.439 --> 1:10:28.420 which is banned in Iran and other stuff. I mean, 1:10:28.460 --> 1:10:29.939 it gets crossed over the border. 1:10:29.960 --> 1:10:30.060 Yeah. 1:10:30.790 --> 1:10:33.070 It would have been difficult just to bring in large 1:10:33.590 --> 1:10:36.769 amounts of weapons into Iran and then give it to protesters. 1:10:37.390 --> 1:10:40.490 It looks nice on paper, but it's difficult if you 1:10:40.530 --> 1:10:44.670 don't have people on the ground. The US, they have 1:10:44.790 --> 1:10:49.680 also supported insurgencies in the past or other movements. For instance, 1:10:49.689 --> 1:10:52.940 the SDF, when the Syrian Kurds, for instance, were fighting ISIS, 1:10:53.580 --> 1:10:58.830 the US were dropping weapons by planes in crates. Some 1:10:58.870 --> 1:11:01.170 of the crates also ended up in ISIS hands because 1:11:01.189 --> 1:11:03.350 it's difficult to control the weather, you know, that they 1:11:03.370 --> 1:11:07.809 can blow up and saw somewhere else. But with Iran, 1:11:07.850 --> 1:11:10.719 of course, it's a very different picture, a very large country, 1:11:11.580 --> 1:11:15.759 hundreds of kilometers of border areas, mountainous areas, much bigger 1:11:15.800 --> 1:11:19.179 than Iraq, for instance. So if you don't have people 1:11:19.200 --> 1:11:21.520 on the ground, it's difficult to, if there's not like 1:11:21.560 --> 1:11:24.220 a safe zone or something, or like an area where 1:11:24.890 --> 1:11:27.639 The Iranian military doesn't have control to give support to 1:11:27.680 --> 1:11:31.620 those groups. But Iran at the time controlled still all 1:11:31.640 --> 1:11:35.280 the territory of Iran. So if there's no area that 1:11:35.360 --> 1:11:37.960 some group controls, it's difficult. Yeah. 1:11:38.160 --> 1:11:41.540 And of course, the US still lists the PKK in 1:11:41.560 --> 1:11:45.830 so much as PKK is still a thing. And the PJ, 1:11:45.910 --> 1:11:48.120 I'll try and not use the Kurdish way of pronouncing it, 1:11:48.130 --> 1:11:51.750 the PJAK as terrorist groups, as foreign terrorist organizations. 1:11:51.770 --> 1:11:51.910 Yeah. 1:11:52.500 --> 1:11:55.360 Yeah, actually, Obama put Peshak on the list also. Like, 1:11:55.380 --> 1:11:57.920 PKK was already listed, but Obama at the time, I 1:11:58.560 --> 1:12:00.679 think because of the talks with Iran at the time 1:12:00.720 --> 1:12:04.349 that he gave them sort of a... Maybe because there 1:12:04.360 --> 1:12:06.229 were some reports at the time also that Peshak was 1:12:06.270 --> 1:12:08.290 meeting with Americans, so maybe it was sort of a 1:12:08.330 --> 1:12:09.930 reassurance to Iran. 1:12:10.550 --> 1:12:14.030 Yeah, and they haven't really changed their stance on that. 1:12:14.050 --> 1:12:18.610 But this leaves these Kurdish-Iranian opposition parties in a very 1:12:18.650 --> 1:12:23.120 difficult position, especially... You sent me this thing today where 1:12:23.240 --> 1:12:26.100 an Iranian diplomat had said that they were being kicked 1:12:26.240 --> 1:12:27.640 out of southern Kurdistan. 1:12:27.780 --> 1:12:29.519 Is that right? Or handed over to Iran? I can't 1:12:29.540 --> 1:12:30.920 quite remember exactly what they said. 1:12:31.500 --> 1:12:36.139 Yeah, so there was this agreement between Iraq and Iran 1:12:36.300 --> 1:12:40.709 in 2023 after this Jinnah Amini protest that Iran was 1:12:41.370 --> 1:12:44.490 convinced that the Iranian Kurds were involved in that. So 1:12:44.870 --> 1:12:47.670 after 2026, we saw that there was all these reports 1:12:47.710 --> 1:12:50.770 that Iranian Kurds were receiving arms. And even the Iranian 1:12:50.790 --> 1:12:54.990 foreign minister, he talked about that in an interview, that 1:12:55.010 --> 1:12:58.190 he basically contacted the Turks and Iraqi Kurds to prevent 1:12:58.350 --> 1:13:02.760 that from happening. So what Iran prefers is that those 1:13:02.820 --> 1:13:05.500 Iranian Kurdish opposition parties that have been in exile and 1:13:05.620 --> 1:13:10.160 in camps in Iraqi Kurdistan to basically be removed. Like, 1:13:10.180 --> 1:13:12.260 for instance, what happened with the Mujahideen Halk, which was 1:13:12.300 --> 1:13:16.250 removed in 2016. because of Iranian pressure, but also because 1:13:16.310 --> 1:13:19.130 of the US that wanted them gone because they were 1:13:19.729 --> 1:13:24.110 creating issues. So Mujahideen Khalkh is also an Iranian opposition group, 1:13:24.189 --> 1:13:27.710 and they have armed members, and they were moved to Albania. 1:13:28.870 --> 1:13:31.229 So Iran prefers something like that, that they are moved 1:13:31.430 --> 1:13:34.889 out to Europe or that they are surrendered to Iran. 1:13:35.650 --> 1:13:37.810 And that's also now actually a process now between the 1:13:37.840 --> 1:13:41.920 PKK and Turkey, because Turkey is now discussing an amnesty 1:13:41.960 --> 1:13:44.500 for PKK, and they said, We're not going to accept 1:13:44.520 --> 1:13:47.260 the PKK leadership to come back to Turkey. So where 1:13:47.300 --> 1:13:49.120 are they going to send them? So now they're talking 1:13:49.180 --> 1:13:52.220 about sending the PKK leadership, for instance, to Europe as 1:13:52.260 --> 1:13:54.560 part of this peace talks between the PKK and the 1:13:54.600 --> 1:13:57.740 Turkish state. So what we saw during this recent forum 1:13:57.770 --> 1:14:00.430 in the MIRI forum that the PKK leader, Bafo Talabani, 1:14:00.510 --> 1:14:02.890 he was an Iraqi Kurdish leader. He was saying, like, 1:14:02.950 --> 1:14:05.150 we can't do something like that with the Iranian Kurds also. 1:14:05.890 --> 1:14:07.929 what is happening with the PKK, that we do something 1:14:07.970 --> 1:14:11.260 like that. And Iranian Kurd Salwood said, well, we don't 1:14:11.300 --> 1:14:14.540 have any talks with Iran or we have no idea what, 1:14:14.960 --> 1:14:17.439 there's no process at the moment going on. I mean, 1:14:17.460 --> 1:14:20.340 there were peace talks in the past between Iran and 1:14:20.400 --> 1:14:23.870 Iranian Kurdish parties, but in the beginning, actually Iran assassinated 1:14:24.850 --> 1:14:27.990 some of their leaders during these talks in Europe. Later, 1:14:28.030 --> 1:14:31.850 they tried again in 2019. There also have been talks 1:14:31.890 --> 1:14:34.790 between Peshawar and Iran, but some people say that it 1:14:34.870 --> 1:14:37.060 was mediated also by the Iraqi Kurds at the time. 1:14:37.070 --> 1:14:41.240 This was around, I think, 2011. They have all this history, 1:14:41.340 --> 1:14:43.340 but the fact is that the Iranian Kurds said, well, 1:14:43.580 --> 1:14:46.300 we are not aware of any talks. It seems that 1:14:47.000 --> 1:14:50.090 the PKK leaders may be thinking that this PKK process 1:14:50.100 --> 1:14:53.990 with Turkey could be replicated with Iran, and that then 1:14:54.130 --> 1:14:57.830 Iran stops its drone attacks. For instance, Turkey In the past, 1:14:58.010 --> 1:14:59.910 Turkey was carrying out a lot of drone attacks in 1:14:59.970 --> 1:15:03.860 Iraqi Kurdistan, also on Sinjar, on the PKK and PKK affiliates. 1:15:04.660 --> 1:15:07.880 And there were almost weekly drone attacks by Turkey. But 1:15:08.040 --> 1:15:12.080 once the peace process started after 2024, we saw around, 1:15:12.700 --> 1:15:16.260 I think it was around 2025 or before that, that 1:15:16.340 --> 1:15:19.220 almost all the drone attacks, they stopped basically. So there 1:15:19.240 --> 1:15:21.510 was no more artillery. There was no more drone attacks 1:15:21.550 --> 1:15:24.710 by Turkey. And I think that sort of the Iraqi 1:15:24.729 --> 1:15:28.930 Kurdish leadership sort of like thinking of, replicating that with Iran. 1:15:29.570 --> 1:15:31.759 But also today I saw an interview with an Iranian 1:15:31.770 --> 1:15:34.260 Kurdish leader who was saying that you should not like 1:15:34.320 --> 1:15:38.460 compare us to other Kurdish areas. We cannot be compared, 1:15:38.500 --> 1:15:40.460 the Iranian Kurds cannot be compared, for instance, with the 1:15:40.500 --> 1:15:44.360 Kurds in Turkey because that's a very different political issue. 1:15:45.380 --> 1:15:48.229 Also with this attacks, you know, like they're thinking of 1:15:48.290 --> 1:15:50.729 like replicating that, but the issue is that in Turkey 1:15:50.770 --> 1:15:53.750 you have PKK, you have the Turkish state, but in 1:15:53.790 --> 1:15:57.259 Iran you have like Kurdish political alliance of six parties. 1:15:57.580 --> 1:15:59.980 And then you still have some other Iranian Kurdish parties 1:16:00.020 --> 1:16:01.240 that are not part of the alliance. 1:16:01.500 --> 1:16:01.720 Yeah. 1:16:01.860 --> 1:16:04.719 So you have like this large number of Iranian Kurdish parties, 1:16:04.780 --> 1:16:08.780 which have maybe around 10,000 or more fighters. Some people 1:16:08.820 --> 1:16:12.240 say even more. So I think that's why it's a 1:16:12.260 --> 1:16:15.180 bit more complicated than in Turkey, because in Turkey, they 1:16:15.200 --> 1:16:17.729 can talk with Ocalan who's in jail, the leader of 1:16:17.770 --> 1:16:18.320 the PKK. 1:16:18.479 --> 1:16:18.669 Yeah. 1:16:18.870 --> 1:16:20.590 But if it's with Iranian Kurds, who they talk to. 1:16:21.229 --> 1:16:24.080 And the Iraqi Kurds are basically offering themselves as a, 1:16:24.660 --> 1:16:27.160 as a mediator, but the issue is then what you're 1:16:27.180 --> 1:16:29.820 going to do with all these different political parties. And 1:16:29.840 --> 1:16:31.760 then of course, they want to have something in return. 1:16:32.240 --> 1:16:35.260 So it's complicated. And at the same time, you have 1:16:35.280 --> 1:16:37.920 the Iranian ambassador in Baghdad saying, well, we already made 1:16:37.939 --> 1:16:40.020 a deal with Baghdad. They're going to be removed or 1:16:40.500 --> 1:16:44.259 given to Iran. And today there was also a KRG official, 1:16:44.280 --> 1:16:46.320 an Iraqi Kurdish official who said that he was not 1:16:46.350 --> 1:16:48.809 a part of the meeting in Baghdad. So he had 1:16:49.189 --> 1:16:50.810 no comment on that specific issue. 1:16:51.110 --> 1:16:51.269 Yeah. 1:16:51.570 --> 1:16:56.809 So yeah, it's, it's like very, um, very complicated, the situation. Yeah. 1:16:56.930 --> 1:17:00.660 It's been such a fractured year, I guess, for Kurdistan, 1:17:00.680 --> 1:17:03.519 like starting with all the developments in Syria at the 1:17:03.540 --> 1:17:06.760 very start of the year. And then like, I feel 1:17:06.780 --> 1:17:10.020 like immediately following that we saw a lot more unity, 1:17:10.280 --> 1:17:12.269 like even to the point where there were like some 1:17:12.330 --> 1:17:17.229 peak UK anti-terrorism forces who went to Hesika, I think like, 1:17:17.430 --> 1:17:20.650 like during that, that time when, uh, the STG was 1:17:20.689 --> 1:17:23.349 advancing towards the majority Kurdish cities in Syria. 1:17:23.890 --> 1:17:26.450 I think there was a misunderstanding about that thing. Okay. 1:17:26.970 --> 1:17:29.769 The PUK already had like this counterterrorism forces for a 1:17:29.790 --> 1:17:32.700 long time in Syria and they were basically already there. 1:17:33.180 --> 1:17:35.420 But then there was some social media, they were suggesting 1:17:35.439 --> 1:17:38.280 that they were basically being sent to support the STF 1:17:38.320 --> 1:17:41.780 against the muskists. But I talked to people from the 1:17:41.820 --> 1:17:43.939 PUK side and they said, no, no, it was not, 1:17:44.300 --> 1:17:45.939 it was not like sort of, I mean, there was 1:17:45.970 --> 1:17:48.730 a lot of cross border solidarity, you know, Iraqi Kurds. 1:17:48.790 --> 1:17:49.030 Yeah. 1:17:49.580 --> 1:17:54.500 Supporting also dialogue between Syrian Kurds and Damascus, both from 1:17:54.580 --> 1:18:00.450 Erbil and Soleimani, but actively involved in supporting SDF military. 1:18:00.510 --> 1:18:03.070 I think that was only mostly against ISIS and not 1:18:03.130 --> 1:18:04.570 against Damascus. 1:18:05.070 --> 1:18:05.330 Okay. 1:18:06.090 --> 1:18:09.300 So they were still there on that anti-ISIS mission, which 1:18:09.340 --> 1:18:11.900 was ongoing for them. Yeah, that makes sense, I guess. 1:18:12.140 --> 1:18:12.260 Yeah. 1:18:12.300 --> 1:18:12.420 Yeah. 1:18:13.080 --> 1:18:15.060 It was interesting just to see like the move to 1:18:15.360 --> 1:18:18.920 using not the SDF flag or the PYD flag, but 1:18:19.000 --> 1:18:22.040 like the green, yellow and red Kurdistan flag. 1:18:22.120 --> 1:18:22.320 Right. 1:18:22.939 --> 1:18:27.960 And like a sort of more unified moment for Kurdistan. 1:18:27.979 --> 1:18:30.320 And now we're, we're sort of back in this place 1:18:30.439 --> 1:18:35.010 where the various states that divide Kurdistan have been able 1:18:35.050 --> 1:18:38.590 to like fairly effectively play the interest and safety of 1:18:38.670 --> 1:18:41.610 one group against the interest and safety of another group. 1:18:41.710 --> 1:18:41.910 Right. 1:18:42.090 --> 1:18:42.750 Is that fair to say? 1:18:43.400 --> 1:18:46.690 Yeah, I mean, there was a lot of cross-border solidarity 1:18:46.729 --> 1:18:48.990 at the time. Even yeah the reigning kurdish party saying 1:18:49.020 --> 1:18:52.900 that they were willing to send their forces into syria 1:18:52.939 --> 1:18:56.340 if they would receive a request so yeah and there 1:18:56.380 --> 1:18:59.060 were also a lot of volunteers coming like iraqi kurdish 1:18:59.180 --> 1:19:02.300 volunteers they were crossing the border and they were there 1:19:02.780 --> 1:19:05.930 But then, of course, the agreement was made and then 1:19:05.950 --> 1:19:09.750 the fighting stopped. So they mostly returned to Kurdistan. It's 1:19:10.010 --> 1:19:11.210 not that anyone stayed there. 1:19:11.490 --> 1:19:12.229 No, yeah. 1:19:12.330 --> 1:19:14.930 I think most of them definitely came home pretty quickly. 1:19:26.150 --> 1:19:31.849 So going along now, this still happens every... Every month 1:19:31.970 --> 1:19:34.210 or so, someone on Twitter will be like, oh, the 1:19:34.310 --> 1:19:39.059 Iranian Kurds are going to rise up against the Iranian regime. 1:19:39.120 --> 1:19:41.060 I guess it's an easy way to generate revenue if 1:19:41.080 --> 1:19:43.919 you're one of those people who has the blue tick 1:19:44.040 --> 1:19:46.700 on Twitter now. And mostly it's people who have never 1:19:46.760 --> 1:19:49.420 paid attention to Kurdistan before and won't again. 1:19:49.680 --> 1:19:52.430 It's just a lie for attention. 1:19:53.090 --> 1:19:56.930 But it seems almost less likely than it was a 1:19:57.210 --> 1:20:00.140 year ago, right? The US has not really done much 1:20:00.200 --> 1:20:02.780 to assist them. The bombing that the US has done 1:20:02.840 --> 1:20:11.160 has not degraded Iran's capacity to suppress revolution internally. It 1:20:11.200 --> 1:20:14.950 seems like we're not moving any closer to a situation 1:20:14.990 --> 1:20:18.170 where we're likely to see any kind of open conflict 1:20:18.290 --> 1:20:18.790 in Iran. 1:20:19.390 --> 1:20:21.670 Is that a reasonable conclusion? 1:20:22.610 --> 1:20:26.890 Yeah, I think like in February, when they started bombing 1:20:26.950 --> 1:20:30.689 in February, March, that the Iranian government was quite weak, 1:20:31.729 --> 1:20:34.370 especially the Kurdish areas. I mean, they were like basically... 1:20:34.820 --> 1:20:38.990 Iranian soldiers and IRGC, they were basically hiding in mosques 1:20:39.030 --> 1:20:41.790 and stuff. They were trying to avoid airstrikes. So at 1:20:41.850 --> 1:20:43.690 that point, they were very weak. So I think at 1:20:43.729 --> 1:20:47.730 that point, the ability of Iran to suppress any Iranian 1:20:47.750 --> 1:20:50.690 Kurdish insurgency would be very difficult. But the Iranian Kurds 1:20:50.729 --> 1:20:53.370 were basically waiting to see what the US and Israel 1:20:53.390 --> 1:20:56.309 will do and if they were serious and nothing happened. 1:20:56.330 --> 1:20:59.800 I mean, there were some airstrikes in Piran Shah near 1:20:59.810 --> 1:21:04.099 the border, but that didn't really materialize in anything. And then... 1:21:04.460 --> 1:21:07.400 I think now that the question is like, doesn't Trump 1:21:07.439 --> 1:21:11.260 really want to have like a full regime change or 1:21:11.439 --> 1:21:15.180 is the fact that he rather is looking for that 1:21:15.240 --> 1:21:17.900 Iran just say like official, I mean, Iran already says 1:21:17.920 --> 1:21:20.040 we don't have a nuclear, we don't have ambitions for 1:21:20.060 --> 1:21:22.740 a nuclear weapon, but that's not enough for the U 1:21:22.860 --> 1:21:26.760 S U S they want Iran to stop all this like, uh, 1:21:26.800 --> 1:21:29.060 nuclear enrichment and this kind of things and all these 1:21:29.080 --> 1:21:31.769 sites and stuff they want to be, be destroyed or 1:21:31.810 --> 1:21:34.710 removed or whatever. So I think that's like the main 1:21:34.729 --> 1:21:37.910 goal of the US and Israel rather has the regime 1:21:37.950 --> 1:21:41.479 completely gone, but they cannot do it by themselves only. Yeah. 1:21:41.840 --> 1:21:44.300 I mean, the Israeli prime minister is talking about that 1:21:44.340 --> 1:21:46.259 a lot, but they cannot do it by themselves. 1:21:46.460 --> 1:21:46.620 Yeah. 1:21:47.080 --> 1:21:49.160 The question is like, if there's going to be a 1:21:49.180 --> 1:21:53.599 new round of strikes, conflict after or before the midterm 1:21:53.650 --> 1:21:55.570 elections in the US, how are they going to look? 1:21:55.930 --> 1:21:56.090 Yeah. 1:21:56.270 --> 1:21:58.510 But I think personally that Trump is not so much 1:21:58.570 --> 1:22:02.570 interested in, he was hoping that Iran would have sort 1:22:02.590 --> 1:22:03.830 of a Venezuela effect. 1:22:04.229 --> 1:22:05.930 Yeah, I agree. 1:22:05.950 --> 1:22:09.849 They killed several Iranian top leaders. They killed the Supreme Leader. 1:22:10.510 --> 1:22:13.349 And they were thinking that the Iranian government would quickly 1:22:13.390 --> 1:22:16.979 collapse and that they could do something with Kurds and 1:22:17.020 --> 1:22:22.080 maybe install either monarchists or someone friendly, like someone in 1:22:22.120 --> 1:22:26.120 the Iranian government would basically surrender completely to US demands 1:22:26.200 --> 1:22:29.400 and that basically... They would have like a new Venezuela 1:22:29.479 --> 1:22:33.000 and all business would start and they could continue. But 1:22:33.040 --> 1:22:37.120 they didn't realize that Iran is like a very ideological government. 1:22:37.380 --> 1:22:41.940 And it's not like Venezuela, which is a very different situation. 1:22:42.740 --> 1:22:45.350 And basically that idea was sold to Trump that it 1:22:45.390 --> 1:22:48.030 would be quickly over, but it was not over very quickly. 1:22:48.050 --> 1:22:52.070 And now they're sort of stuck in this conflict that's 1:22:52.110 --> 1:22:56.729 not ending. And could continue until even a new government 1:22:56.770 --> 1:23:00.520 comes and after new elections, you know, after, not even 1:23:00.610 --> 1:23:02.880 after the midterm elections, a very big chance that this 1:23:02.900 --> 1:23:05.460 will just continue, even not like a full scale conflict. 1:23:05.560 --> 1:23:07.800 And still there will be tensions unless there's like an 1:23:07.840 --> 1:23:09.360 agreement between the US and Iran. 1:23:09.800 --> 1:23:09.980 Yeah. 1:23:10.340 --> 1:23:12.760 So it really depends on what will happen. So I 1:23:12.780 --> 1:23:15.880 think personally that if the US will do something, probably 1:23:15.939 --> 1:23:18.200 it will be like, again, like a very big strike 1:23:18.260 --> 1:23:22.770 or something on energy or nuclear sites and stuff. But 1:23:22.830 --> 1:23:24.510 will it be like a ground invasion? 1:23:24.590 --> 1:23:24.830 No. 1:23:25.490 --> 1:23:28.450 I mean, he's not going to send ground troops. I mean, 1:23:28.470 --> 1:23:30.590 they could also do something, what they did with the 1:23:30.610 --> 1:23:34.379 Syrian Kurds, that you have this small special forces supported 1:23:34.439 --> 1:23:39.540 by airstrikes hitting the Iranian government and then pushing them 1:23:39.620 --> 1:23:42.179 out from certain areas like what happened in Syria with ISIS. 1:23:42.260 --> 1:23:45.260 But so far, I mean, there's no indication of that. 1:23:45.320 --> 1:23:47.280 So probably it will just be like a very big 1:23:47.340 --> 1:23:51.190 strike again all over Iran. And then again, you're going 1:23:51.330 --> 1:23:55.250 to have talks. But I mean, just airstrikes are not 1:23:55.290 --> 1:23:58.070 going to remove the Iranian government if that is the strategy. 1:23:59.110 --> 1:24:01.610 And also, it's very unlikely that Iran will make any 1:24:01.650 --> 1:24:05.970 concessions unless there's a very big threat to the future 1:24:06.030 --> 1:24:10.030 of the Iranian Islamic Republic. If there's a very big 1:24:10.150 --> 1:24:15.620 uprising or there's literally... Kurds marching on taking Kurdish territory 1:24:15.680 --> 1:24:18.939 or something like that, something like insurgents taking areas like 1:24:19.000 --> 1:24:20.280 Baluch and Kurds and others. 1:24:20.479 --> 1:24:21.200 Yeah. 1:24:21.240 --> 1:24:24.380 There's really something that they think, oh, we're losing territory. 1:24:24.439 --> 1:24:27.280 For instance, what happened when you had, for instance, the 1:24:27.300 --> 1:24:29.740 British and the Soviets in a long time ago that 1:24:29.780 --> 1:24:33.620 they basically controlled certain areas of Iran and created an 1:24:33.720 --> 1:24:35.979 Azeri and a Kurdish republic. So at that time, Iran 1:24:36.040 --> 1:24:39.560 was basically partially occupied by the Brits and the Soviets 1:24:39.620 --> 1:24:43.580 at the time. So that's something they would, maybe then 1:24:43.760 --> 1:24:47.340 they would make concessions, but currently it's unlikely. So they'll 1:24:47.360 --> 1:24:50.059 probably be stalemate. There are probably going to be more strikes. 1:24:50.860 --> 1:24:53.639 But the Iranian Kurds, if for instance, if the US 1:24:53.680 --> 1:24:56.679 and Iran reach a deal, then Iranian Kurds, they will 1:24:57.380 --> 1:25:00.920 probably be under more pressure from Baghdad, from Iran and 1:25:01.189 --> 1:25:06.050 Baghdad to basically be removed from Iraqi Kurdistan. Although it's 1:25:06.090 --> 1:25:08.550 unlikely that the Iraqi Kurds will just easily accept such 1:25:08.590 --> 1:25:12.510 a thing because There's also this pun, Kurdish national sentiment 1:25:12.979 --> 1:25:17.350 that if you remove those Iranian Kurds without their approval 1:25:17.510 --> 1:25:22.330 or their acceptance, that could also create Kurds being unhappy 1:25:22.350 --> 1:25:24.830 to say, oh, why are you betraying the Iranian Kurds? 1:25:25.290 --> 1:25:27.230 But if it's like a peace process, which is happening 1:25:27.270 --> 1:25:30.240 now between PKK and Ankara, where the PKK itself is saying, oh, 1:25:30.400 --> 1:25:33.610 we're going to disband. and we have these negotiations with 1:25:33.630 --> 1:25:35.290 the Turkish government, then it's going to be different. 1:25:35.530 --> 1:25:35.790 Right. 1:25:36.229 --> 1:25:39.510 Uh, so it can like move into many, many directions, 1:25:39.710 --> 1:25:42.590 but of course everybody doesn't know what is exactly going 1:25:42.610 --> 1:25:43.050 to happen. 1:25:43.070 --> 1:25:45.950 So, yeah, I think it's important to keep an eye 1:25:45.970 --> 1:25:46.509 on this stuff. 1:25:46.550 --> 1:25:48.390 And I think it's good that we've given people a 1:25:48.880 --> 1:25:50.940 better basis to understand it because the reporting in the 1:25:51.030 --> 1:25:54.320 U S media on it has not been great. And 1:25:54.340 --> 1:25:56.780 I think, yeah, as, as you said earlier, right? Like 1:25:57.260 --> 1:25:59.940 sometimes the U S will just refer to the Iranian opposition. 1:26:00.570 --> 1:26:03.890 But there really is no unity there. Even after the 1:26:03.930 --> 1:26:07.090 killing of Jinnah Amini, we had these big protests about 1:26:07.110 --> 1:26:10.360 the death of a Kurdish woman and the opposition cannot 1:26:10.420 --> 1:26:13.479 even agree on what her name is. They want to 1:26:13.560 --> 1:26:17.580 use her Persian name. And I think that's a pretty 1:26:17.600 --> 1:26:21.400 good indicator of where they are. And the Iranian monarchists 1:26:21.479 --> 1:26:25.410 cannot help themselves but go on Twitter and make... just 1:26:25.830 --> 1:26:28.850 extremely big, bigoted is the wrong word, but it's very 1:26:28.890 --> 1:26:30.410 clear that they and the Kurds are not in the 1:26:30.430 --> 1:26:35.070 same place at all and that they don't consider any 1:26:35.130 --> 1:26:39.040 sort of Kurdish autonomy to be compatible with their goals. 1:26:39.880 --> 1:26:42.580 Yeah, well, actually, even Bahlavi, he was calling on the 1:26:42.600 --> 1:26:46.700 Iranian army to fight the separatists or something like that, 1:26:47.460 --> 1:26:50.330 and he didn't even control any territory on the ground. So, 1:26:51.170 --> 1:26:53.430 I mean, it's different from Syria where you have this 1:26:53.510 --> 1:26:58.179 large Sunni... uh, Arab insurgent movements, uh, that were fighting 1:26:58.200 --> 1:27:02.230 against Assad regime, they actually had manpower to fight against 1:27:02.250 --> 1:27:05.170 the Kurds. And they did several times, uh, even before 1:27:05.350 --> 1:27:06.210 the fall of Assad. 1:27:06.330 --> 1:27:06.470 Yeah. 1:27:06.910 --> 1:27:08.610 And then when they took over the Syrian state, then 1:27:08.650 --> 1:27:11.550 basically they put demands to the Kurds that you either 1:27:11.570 --> 1:27:13.840 integrate into the Syrian state or it's going to be war. 1:27:14.140 --> 1:27:14.310 Yeah. 1:27:14.479 --> 1:27:16.420 And that's actually what happened. It ended up in a 1:27:16.439 --> 1:27:19.060 war in January and in the end Damascus won with 1:27:19.100 --> 1:27:22.740 support of Turkey. And also because the West abandoned, um, 1:27:23.560 --> 1:27:26.690 their alliance with the STF and they choose Damascus because, 1:27:26.710 --> 1:27:30.530 you know, they want to send back Syrians from Europe 1:27:30.570 --> 1:27:33.509 to Syria and the US wants to do business deals. 1:27:34.990 --> 1:27:38.410 So I don't know, like maybe Pahlavi had something similar 1:27:38.450 --> 1:27:41.380 in mind, you know, although it was actually interesting that 1:27:41.410 --> 1:27:44.960 the Iranian foreign minister claimed that Pahlavi sort of have 1:27:45.040 --> 1:27:47.900 accepted to lose control over Kurdish areas in exchange for 1:27:47.979 --> 1:27:52.420 getting control over Iran central state. Interesting, I hear that. 1:27:52.810 --> 1:27:55.059 He was saying that in an interview. But that was 1:27:55.100 --> 1:28:00.700 never confirmed or denied by Pahlavi. And also seeing his 1:28:00.740 --> 1:28:03.900 hostility towards Iranian Kurdish political parties and their alliances, you know, 1:28:04.439 --> 1:28:06.620 doesn't really look like that, that he sort of accepted 1:28:06.660 --> 1:28:07.139 such a thing. 1:28:07.320 --> 1:28:07.559 Right. 1:28:08.120 --> 1:28:10.120 Because if it was like that, they could have formed 1:28:10.140 --> 1:28:14.140 a sort of Iranian opposition alliance, you know, between monarchists, 1:28:14.220 --> 1:28:20.220 Iranian Kurds, Mujahideen, this other group or other groups. But 1:28:20.240 --> 1:28:23.170 they never did. You know, there was never really... A 1:28:23.189 --> 1:28:26.010 big alliance. But Iranian Kurds themselves, they formed an alliance 1:28:26.090 --> 1:28:28.849 and they also have some contacts with some other Iranian 1:28:28.890 --> 1:28:32.990 opposition factions. But it's still very much disunited. 1:28:33.510 --> 1:28:34.130 Yeah, yeah. 1:28:34.670 --> 1:28:36.229 But I think that's helped everyone get a better sense 1:28:36.270 --> 1:28:39.070 of where things are at. If people would like to 1:28:39.090 --> 1:28:41.190 follow more of your work... you do a really good 1:28:41.220 --> 1:28:43.960 job of keeping people updated on Kurdistan all over. 1:28:44.460 --> 1:28:46.439 Where can they find you online if they want to 1:28:46.460 --> 1:28:46.760 do that? 1:28:47.320 --> 1:28:50.679 Well, I'm mostly active on X, basically, and I write 1:28:50.720 --> 1:28:55.219 for different outlets. I write for Kurdistan Chronicle, New Region, 1:28:55.240 --> 1:28:58.280 Middle East, some other outlets. There's a large number of them. 1:28:58.930 --> 1:29:01.850 But most of the stuff I always post on my X. 1:29:02.330 --> 1:29:05.370 So that's where I'm mostly active. Also trying to follow 1:29:05.410 --> 1:29:08.910 the whole regional conflict, which is ongoing, you know, and 1:29:09.490 --> 1:29:11.429 spreading to Yemen and other areas. 1:29:12.410 --> 1:29:12.570 Yeah. 1:29:12.970 --> 1:29:14.490 What's your handle there if people want to find you? 1:29:14.510 --> 1:29:17.510 It's basically my name, but with a V. So it's 1:29:17.670 --> 1:29:21.130 at the X, it's like V-V-A-N-W-I-L-G-A-N-B-U-R-G. 1:29:21.150 --> 1:29:21.269 Yeah. 1:29:26.600 --> 1:29:28.740 It's easier to write it on the screen then. 1:29:28.770 --> 1:29:31.550 Yeah, we'll put a link for people. There's a lot 1:29:31.610 --> 1:29:34.210 of consonants coming out of people. Thank you very much 1:29:34.290 --> 1:29:36.290 for your time this evening. I think that really helped 1:29:36.310 --> 1:29:39.360 people get a better grasp of how things are in Kurdistan. 1:29:39.580 --> 1:29:39.900 Thank you. 1:29:40.100 --> 1:29:41.320 You're welcome. Have a good day. 1:29:53.580 --> 1:29:58.880 It could happen here! That's not how we open the show. 1:29:59.260 --> 1:30:05.360 Welcome to Executive Disorder, our special midterm election 2026 edition, 1:30:05.979 --> 1:30:07.940 where we're going to talk about everything that we can 1:30:08.050 --> 1:30:11.450 in the next hour and change. I'm Garrison Davis. I'm 1:30:11.510 --> 1:30:16.170 joined by Robert Evans, James Stout, Kevin Foster, and special 1:30:16.229 --> 1:30:20.629 Texas correspondent Stephen Monticelli. Welcome, everyone. 1:30:21.290 --> 1:30:21.550 Yes. 1:30:21.830 --> 1:30:25.220 Welcome back to the show, everybody. Stephen, I'm so glad 1:30:25.260 --> 1:30:27.720 we made the decision several decades ago to embed you 1:30:27.780 --> 1:30:30.580 in Texas, knowing that years later we would start a 1:30:30.600 --> 1:30:33.720 media network and need a correspondent in Texas for the 1:30:33.720 --> 1:30:35.160 2026 midterm elections. 1:30:35.800 --> 1:30:37.929 The long-term planning really paid off. 1:30:38.470 --> 1:30:38.950 Yeah, yeah. 1:30:38.990 --> 1:30:40.950 We actually went and scouted you like they do with 1:30:41.070 --> 1:30:43.769 NBA players when you were a little kid. Like, yeah, 1:30:43.790 --> 1:30:44.610 this one, this one. 1:30:44.970 --> 1:30:46.630 Someone's going to take that seriously. 1:30:46.810 --> 1:30:48.710 Someone's going to take that seriously. 1:30:48.729 --> 1:30:49.730 Oh, God. 1:30:49.750 --> 1:30:49.830 Yeah. 1:30:51.630 --> 1:30:54.710 Yes, we're looking for the LeBron James of podcasting about 1:30:54.750 --> 1:30:55.099 the news. 1:30:57.120 --> 1:31:00.719 We will get to Texas shortly. But, you know, similar 1:31:00.780 --> 1:31:05.960 to LeBron James, the elections this year saw a super 1:31:06.020 --> 1:31:11.689 tall blue wave, something that they are calling a blue tsunami. 1:31:12.050 --> 1:31:13.130 Blue nami, come on. 1:31:13.430 --> 1:31:14.030 A blue nami. 1:31:14.050 --> 1:31:14.750 Yeah. 1:31:15.310 --> 1:31:22.150 All right, guys. All right. So Democrats have completely dominated 1:31:22.330 --> 1:31:23.670 in the midterm elections. 1:31:23.950 --> 1:31:24.510 They sure did. 1:31:24.890 --> 1:31:30.750 Outpacing the polling in many cases, outpacing most expectations. They 1:31:30.790 --> 1:31:34.929 are projected to win 258 seats in the House, at least, 1:31:35.510 --> 1:31:39.759 possibly a few more. Jesus. At the very least, an 1:31:39.770 --> 1:31:43.519 81-seat majority, the largest majority either party has had since 1992. 1:31:43.520 --> 1:31:43.780 Wow. 1:31:44.500 --> 1:31:44.800 Wow. 1:31:44.920 --> 1:31:45.720 Fuck me. 1:31:45.960 --> 1:31:49.710 It's an incredible victory. Yeah. Unfortunately, we'll have to kind 1:31:49.750 --> 1:31:51.670 of blaze through some of the House results because the 1:31:51.710 --> 1:31:56.330 Senate results are super, super important as well. But obviously 1:31:56.350 --> 1:31:57.830 the House race was kind of in the shadow of 1:31:57.870 --> 1:32:02.840 this redistricting effort done by Republicans and some Democrats. The 1:32:02.860 --> 1:32:05.700 GOP wanted to flip about 15 House seats through redistricting. 1:32:06.040 --> 1:32:12.990 And how many did they flip? Zero. Zero seats. It's stunning. Now, Garrison, 1:32:13.110 --> 1:32:16.510 is zero a large number? No, no, it's actually one 1:32:16.550 --> 1:32:19.470 of the smaller numbers. Really? Oh, this is interesting. 1:32:19.530 --> 1:32:21.250 Okay, thank you. Thank you for that context. 1:32:21.590 --> 1:32:24.570 In fact, one could argue we've gotten into negative number 1:32:24.630 --> 1:32:27.849 territory because Democrats did not just hold on to those 1:32:27.910 --> 1:32:32.189 gerrymandered seats. They went on to flip at least 35 more. 1:32:32.210 --> 1:32:33.229 Oh, my God. 1:32:33.510 --> 1:32:37.640 Good God. Winning all 28 battleground districts identified by NBC. 1:32:37.660 --> 1:32:37.729 Wow. 1:32:38.610 --> 1:32:40.990 At least 11 flips in the New York Times most 1:32:41.030 --> 1:32:43.550 competitive districts. And that's an undercount because the New York 1:32:43.570 --> 1:32:48.730 Times isn't counting any redistricted district. And then another 10 1:32:48.729 --> 1:32:52.960 flips in districts that Republicans expected to win. And then 1:32:53.020 --> 1:32:56.700 another nine flips in districts Republicans expected to win easily. 1:32:56.720 --> 1:33:02.030 A lot of those in North Carolina, which Democrats just obliterated. 1:33:02.050 --> 1:33:02.120 Oof. 1:33:02.650 --> 1:33:05.450 The Republican Party in North Carolina. It's a bloodbath. 1:33:05.550 --> 1:33:07.790 North Blair-alina, as they call it now. 1:33:07.810 --> 1:33:10.870 Yeah, that's right. Actually, it was just announced a few 1:33:10.910 --> 1:33:13.250 hours ago. That's what they're changing the state's name to. 1:33:17.420 --> 1:33:20.800 Yeah, the Carolinas haven't gotten hit this hard since the 1:33:20.840 --> 1:33:26.860 Civil War. It's crazy stuff. Like there's so many house 1:33:26.880 --> 1:33:30.360 races we could like focus, focus on. I do want 1:33:30.380 --> 1:33:34.740 to highlight it is expected that Lauren Bobbert will no 1:33:34.810 --> 1:33:38.090 longer be a congressperson from January. 1:33:38.570 --> 1:33:43.550 Yeah, that is. Fuck yeah. God, that's that's just she 1:33:43.610 --> 1:33:47.660 is currently trailing by 6000 votes. They're still counting. 1:33:47.860 --> 1:33:51.320 Hearing you say that is like the auditory equivalent of 1:33:51.400 --> 1:33:56.850 biting into a perfectly cooked piece of steak. It's just glorious. Oh, God, 1:33:56.860 --> 1:33:57.509 that feels good. 1:33:58.280 --> 1:34:00.890 The other thing I want to mention, because we've reported 1:34:01.229 --> 1:34:03.870 on this on Executive Disorder this past year, Max Miller, 1:34:04.030 --> 1:34:09.050 the Republican congressman accused of some very horrific familial abuse. 1:34:09.070 --> 1:34:09.189 Yeah. 1:34:10.200 --> 1:34:13.320 That was covered up by the Republican Party in general. 1:34:13.540 --> 1:34:14.540 Real monster shit. 1:34:14.720 --> 1:34:18.730 He has lost by almost 10 points. He is out. 1:34:18.740 --> 1:34:22.790 Brian Poindexter is in. That's in Ohio. This was a 1:34:22.850 --> 1:34:26.590 race that Miller was expected to win, and he did not. 1:34:28.110 --> 1:34:33.590 Other big Trump House districts, we have Indiana 5, Kentucky 6, 1:34:33.590 --> 1:34:38.290 North Carolina 6, and Ohio 10. which Democrats won. These 1:34:38.390 --> 1:34:42.350 are like 20, 30 point shifts away from Trump's performance 1:34:42.370 --> 1:34:45.220 in 2024. Christ almighty. It's pretty incredible. 1:34:45.350 --> 1:34:45.560 Yeah. 1:34:46.200 --> 1:34:50.580 I mean, in general, I expected the House to flip. 1:34:50.660 --> 1:34:50.920 Yes. 1:34:51.120 --> 1:34:54.320 And I think most people did and have like somewhere 1:34:54.340 --> 1:34:57.259 between a slim and like a solid lead for the Dems. 1:34:57.580 --> 1:34:59.780 And the Senate was kind of like, there's a decent 1:34:59.820 --> 1:35:01.500 chance it would flip, but it was going to I 1:35:01.540 --> 1:35:05.530 don't think anyone really thought this would happen. Even when 1:35:05.570 --> 1:35:08.170 the polls were showing it, I couldn't, it's been so 1:35:08.210 --> 1:35:10.710 hard to trust them, right? Like the fact that they 1:35:10.830 --> 1:35:15.059 undercounted the dims is certainly not, like I'm incredibly happy. 1:35:15.180 --> 1:35:18.059 I just, I couldn't let myself believe it was going 1:35:18.140 --> 1:35:21.040 to go this well. And I'm still kind of in 1:35:21.120 --> 1:35:23.939 shock that it did. Like this is nuts. 1:35:24.620 --> 1:35:25.900 I felt like I didn't know what to do with 1:35:25.939 --> 1:35:28.670 myself last night. I'm so used to everything just being bad. 1:35:29.170 --> 1:35:29.470 Yeah. 1:35:29.630 --> 1:35:29.870 Right. 1:35:29.910 --> 1:35:32.089 It's like I was remembering last election. 1:35:32.130 --> 1:35:32.470 Yeah. 1:35:32.490 --> 1:35:33.930 I don't know how to feel. 1:35:34.689 --> 1:35:34.950 Yeah. 1:35:35.050 --> 1:35:35.710 Good, I guess. 1:35:35.750 --> 1:35:38.830 But yeah, I mean, there's obviously there's bad news, as 1:35:38.870 --> 1:35:41.430 we'll talk about, too. But just I don't know. 1:35:41.530 --> 1:35:43.259 I felt like the need to take a second on 1:35:43.340 --> 1:35:45.320 air to go like, yeah, holy shit. 1:35:45.680 --> 1:35:49.410 Yeah. That went pretty well. We can talk about this 1:35:49.510 --> 1:35:53.510 more in the voter trends section, like specifically. But I mean, yeah, 1:35:53.550 --> 1:35:57.550 this is like a total reversal of the 2024 election. 1:35:57.650 --> 1:35:57.889 Yeah. 1:35:58.130 --> 1:36:02.250 On almost every metric. Now, as Robert mentioned, Democrats were 1:36:02.270 --> 1:36:06.050 expected to win the House, not by this much. And again, 1:36:06.090 --> 1:36:09.240 not like this. The tally is still being counted. But 1:36:09.320 --> 1:36:13.460 so when I say they're expected to get around 258, 260, 1:36:13.460 --> 1:36:15.660 not all those have been confirmed yet. But that is 1:36:15.680 --> 1:36:19.700 the NBC projection. Which they're projecting more confidently than the 1:36:19.729 --> 1:36:21.229 New York Times, which is a bit more conservative in 1:36:21.270 --> 1:36:22.090 their projections. Yeah. 1:36:23.229 --> 1:36:25.490 They've done well enough that like the outstanding, obviously the 1:36:25.550 --> 1:36:27.930 races that aren't called yet matter, but none of them 1:36:28.010 --> 1:36:30.769 matter in the sense of determining what the dims will 1:36:30.790 --> 1:36:33.689 be able to do or not probably. Like the margins 1:36:33.770 --> 1:36:36.120 are so big that these like last couple of seats 1:36:36.720 --> 1:36:39.380 won't shift the, obviously it matters, but won't shift the 1:36:39.479 --> 1:36:40.500 overall battle. 1:36:41.060 --> 1:36:45.130 Yeah. Which is crazy. The big question was what was 1:36:45.150 --> 1:36:47.950 going to happen with the Senate. Dems needed to net 1:36:48.130 --> 1:36:52.430 four to five seats, getting to like 51, 52, considering, 1:36:52.450 --> 1:36:55.210 you know, J.D. Vance and John Fetterman, you know, to 1:36:55.250 --> 1:36:56.640 counteract their votes. 1:36:56.680 --> 1:36:57.269 Fetter Vance. 1:36:58.310 --> 1:36:59.910 They would have to claw back a fair number of seats. 1:37:00.900 --> 1:37:03.860 As of Wednesday afternoon, Democrats have secured 54 seats. Wow. 1:37:03.860 --> 1:37:09.860 53, right, with Fetterman being not a Democrat. 1:37:10.640 --> 1:37:11.120 Correct. 1:37:11.160 --> 1:37:14.179 Yeah, Fetterman's ex-account has gone suspiciously quiet this morning. 1:37:15.100 --> 1:37:16.620 Tragic, tragic. He's in mourning. 1:37:16.660 --> 1:37:17.680 A lot of his friends lost. 1:37:18.180 --> 1:37:22.940 And Democrats could win upwards of 56 seats. Jesus Christ. 1:37:22.970 --> 1:37:26.610 Between Alaska and the surprise possible flip of the night, Mississippi, 1:37:26.630 --> 1:37:29.330 which we'll get to in a sec. Yeah, yeah. Between 1:37:29.350 --> 1:37:34.270 like seven, eight or nine flips. It's incredible. Yeah, it's bonkers. Like, 1:37:34.310 --> 1:37:37.220 we have not seen a Senate race like this ever. 1:37:37.240 --> 1:37:38.479 No, no, no. 1:37:39.340 --> 1:37:42.080 It's more like, I remember, I'm sure like some of 1:37:42.140 --> 1:37:44.420 us who are older remember like 2008, right? 1:37:44.580 --> 1:37:46.510 And like the Obama election. 1:37:46.510 --> 1:37:50.970 2008 and 98 too, I think, was another shellacking for 1:37:51.010 --> 1:37:51.330 the right. 1:37:51.350 --> 1:37:54.070 But yeah, evidently nothing to this extent. No. 1:37:54.170 --> 1:37:55.970 Like, this is remarkable. 1:37:56.070 --> 1:37:58.860 And the incumbent party tends to do worse in midterms, yeah, 1:37:58.900 --> 1:38:00.180 but not to this extent. 1:38:00.200 --> 1:38:04.620 Yeah. No, getting possibly 56 Senate seats. 1:38:05.000 --> 1:38:08.010 This isn't doing worse. This is like end of days. 1:38:08.650 --> 1:38:12.130 Yeah, extinction level event, to quote Ron DeSantis. 1:38:12.290 --> 1:38:16.010 As Ron DeSantis says, an extinction level event for the 1:38:16.070 --> 1:38:16.969 Republican Party. 1:38:17.410 --> 1:38:18.910 Yeah, thank God. 1:38:20.850 --> 1:38:24.179 Let's talk about Michigan, one of the big races of 1:38:24.220 --> 1:38:26.900 the night, Abdul El-Sayed versus Mike Rogers. This was an 1:38:27.040 --> 1:38:31.760 open seat previously held by a Democrat, and El-Sayed held 1:38:31.800 --> 1:38:36.300 this seat for the Democrats. He won 53 to Rogers 45, 1:38:36.280 --> 1:38:41.140 a seven-point win. Nice. The entire GOP apparatus, and frankly, 1:38:41.720 --> 1:38:45.790 a big portion of the Democratic establishment mobilized against El-Sayed hard. 1:38:46.260 --> 1:38:48.980 on like a national level, right? He became this sort 1:38:49.010 --> 1:38:51.850 of like poster child of this whole election cycle with 1:38:51.890 --> 1:38:54.990 Republicans hoping that painting him as an extremist, by doing that, 1:38:55.030 --> 1:38:58.269 his candidacy could like negatively affect Democrats and races all 1:38:58.290 --> 1:39:01.870 across the country. And that did not happen at all. 1:39:03.030 --> 1:39:03.290 Nope. 1:39:04.229 --> 1:39:05.950 It's the same kind of deal with like, if we 1:39:05.970 --> 1:39:09.390 really focus on Hassan Piker, that'll scare everybody away from 1:39:09.410 --> 1:39:10.530 voting for the Democrats. 1:39:10.570 --> 1:39:12.850 Didn't work. That didn't seem to work. And if you 1:39:12.890 --> 1:39:15.660 get a look at the voter demographic numbers- Seemed like 1:39:15.680 --> 1:39:17.080 the opposite may have happened. 1:39:17.260 --> 1:39:17.540 Right. 1:39:18.120 --> 1:39:21.960 I would be remiss to mention that Haley Stevens decided 1:39:22.020 --> 1:39:26.110 to endorse the quote unquote nightmare, her words, Mike Rogers, 1:39:26.689 --> 1:39:30.170 like two or three days before the election because of 1:39:30.610 --> 1:39:34.810 El-Sayed's anti-Israel stances. and essentially threw her career away for, 1:39:34.830 --> 1:39:37.689 I guess, probably some AIPAC money. I was going to 1:39:37.710 --> 1:39:38.689 say nothing, but. 1:39:38.790 --> 1:39:39.620 What's she going to do with it? 1:39:39.890 --> 1:39:40.349 But, yeah. 1:39:41.350 --> 1:39:44.620 She, like, self-immolated as a career politician. Buy the flight 1:39:44.640 --> 1:39:45.300 to Israel. 1:39:45.860 --> 1:39:49.099 Yeah, right. That does seem like kind of her only option. 1:39:49.420 --> 1:39:52.120 Join Netanyahu. She's been kicked out of the Democratic Party. 1:39:52.160 --> 1:39:55.050 Well, Netanyahu might not be in power all that much longer, 1:39:55.090 --> 1:39:56.550 depending on how things go over there. 1:39:56.590 --> 1:39:58.809 She doesn't have to join him in Parliament. Join him 1:39:58.830 --> 1:40:00.910 in the International Criminal Court if she wants to. Sure. 1:40:01.090 --> 1:40:04.679 She might build a win. Yeah. Moving on to Maine, 1:40:04.780 --> 1:40:08.880 another race with a lot of focus, Troy Jackson versus 1:40:09.000 --> 1:40:14.680 Susan Collins, who's held this seat for 200 years. That 1:40:14.700 --> 1:40:16.020 can't be right. 1:40:16.100 --> 1:40:18.330 Since 1776. Yeah, actually. 1:40:18.370 --> 1:40:22.090 I mean, she very famously stood with Washington at Yorktown. 1:40:23.330 --> 1:40:25.890 So have a little bit of respect. She's a veteran 1:40:25.910 --> 1:40:28.220 we're talking about. Signed the Declaration of Independence, Garrison. 1:40:28.800 --> 1:40:31.589 And come election night, union logger and former Maine Senate 1:40:31.600 --> 1:40:36.189 President Troy Jackson unseated longtime Republican Senator Susan Collins, who 1:40:36.250 --> 1:40:38.530 defied the polls in 2020 when she held onto her 1:40:38.630 --> 1:40:42.729 seat that year. Jackson has won by about eight points, 1:40:43.189 --> 1:40:46.750 close to Kamala's margins against Trump. This is a huge 1:40:46.790 --> 1:40:51.070 win for labor and like the Bernie wing of the Democrats. And, 1:40:51.110 --> 1:40:53.320 you know, just getting Collins out of there is just 1:40:53.380 --> 1:40:53.880 feels good. 1:40:54.300 --> 1:40:55.320 Feels good, man. 1:40:55.760 --> 1:40:56.020 Yeah. 1:40:56.060 --> 1:40:56.180 Yeah. 1:40:58.070 --> 1:41:00.780 One of the seats that Democrats expected to flip was 1:41:00.820 --> 1:41:03.860 in North Carolina with Roy Cooper, the man who has 1:41:03.900 --> 1:41:07.420 never lost an election, going up against Mike Watley for 1:41:07.960 --> 1:41:13.120 a previously Republican-held seat. And former Governor Cooper did flip this, 1:41:14.050 --> 1:41:18.590 winning 60-40. Like I said, just North Carolina, total bloodbath. 1:41:19.150 --> 1:41:24.230 Trump won this by three. And down-ballot races, the House races, 1:41:24.270 --> 1:41:28.060 state legislature, just Really, in North Carolina, it's the bluest 1:41:28.080 --> 1:41:32.820 you've ever seen. What's much more surprising is the neighbor 1:41:32.880 --> 1:41:37.519 down south, South Carolina, with Annie Andrews against Darlene Graham, 1:41:38.060 --> 1:41:42.470 the Republican incumbent. Yes. Democrat Annie Andrews lost a U.S. 1:41:42.510 --> 1:41:47.590 House race to Nancy Mace in 2022. But last night, 1:41:47.729 --> 1:41:51.650 she beat short-term Republican Senator Darlene Graham, flipping the seat 1:41:51.689 --> 1:41:55.210 formerly held by late queer icon Lindsey Graham. who served 1:41:55.250 --> 1:41:59.750 as a senator since 2003. In 2020, he won by 1:41:59.750 --> 1:42:05.050 10 points. Trump won the state by 18 points in 2024. 1:42:05.050 --> 1:42:09.030 Andrews won by four. So that's what, like a 22-point 1:42:09.229 --> 1:42:14.150 swing from 24 to 26? Yeah. Annie Andrews is like 1:42:14.810 --> 1:42:18.479 in between moderate and progressive. She ran on like a 1:42:18.580 --> 1:42:21.400 public healthcare option, right? Not Medicare for all, but a 1:42:21.620 --> 1:42:25.890 public option. abortion rights, education funding, banning corporate PAC money, 1:42:26.630 --> 1:42:29.910 cracking down on congressional stock trading, term limits, AI regulation, 1:42:30.030 --> 1:42:33.150 border security, and path to citizenship while keeping families together. 1:42:33.170 --> 1:42:36.680 Is she one of the Dignidad Act people? 1:42:37.229 --> 1:42:38.330 I don't know what that is. 1:42:39.210 --> 1:42:39.450 Okay. 1:42:40.050 --> 1:42:41.639 I don't want to divert the episode too much. It 1:42:41.689 --> 1:42:44.880 is a thing that like Blue Dog Dems and some Republicans, 1:42:45.040 --> 1:42:47.519 including Florida Republicans, have been trying to introduce for a 1:42:47.540 --> 1:42:50.960 long time that would effectively create an underclass of people 1:42:51.060 --> 1:42:53.560 who had no pathway to citizenship and had a right 1:42:53.580 --> 1:42:54.040 to remain. 1:42:55.040 --> 1:42:56.220 And they tend to couple. 1:42:55.979 --> 1:42:57.680 This with border security and be. 1:42:58.320 --> 1:43:00.280 It's like a faux amnesty, almost. 1:43:00.390 --> 1:43:00.860 Okay, okay. 1:43:01.689 --> 1:43:05.430 Her exact platform does not go into that level of specificity. 1:43:06.610 --> 1:43:10.110 I will say coupling path to citizenship with border security 1:43:10.130 --> 1:43:12.850 has been one of the most common talking points across 1:43:12.870 --> 1:43:17.860 these swing states. What exactly that means once they're in 1:43:17.960 --> 1:43:20.180 office is kind of a black box. 1:43:20.520 --> 1:43:23.620 Yeah, we have failed to reform our immigration policy for 1:43:23.660 --> 1:43:25.820 decades and decades and decades, which is how we got 1:43:25.860 --> 1:43:29.280 to this fucked up situation that we're in. We're going 1:43:29.300 --> 1:43:30.840 to cross that bridge when we come to it, obviously. 1:43:31.240 --> 1:43:32.549 I will report on it when it happens. 1:43:33.270 --> 1:43:37.270 Another thing to cross, hopefully sooner than later, is the 1:43:37.350 --> 1:43:40.030 trans issue and the way that's been weaponized in these 1:43:40.070 --> 1:43:42.990 past few elections. And last month, Annie Andrews did release 1:43:43.030 --> 1:43:47.230 an ad directly opposing, quote, biological men in women's sports and, quote, 1:43:47.310 --> 1:43:50.790 gender surgery for minors in response to a swath of 1:43:50.830 --> 1:43:54.950 attack ads against her. This ad is not good. This 1:43:54.990 --> 1:43:57.330 is bad. This is bad. And this is handled much 1:43:57.410 --> 1:44:02.390 worse than other candidates handled this, like Sherrod Brown. who 1:44:02.490 --> 1:44:06.570 also faced a wave of ads attacking him and the 1:44:06.600 --> 1:44:09.460 Democrats for the support of trans people. And he released 1:44:09.500 --> 1:44:13.240 an ad calling the Republicans pedophiles. That was his response. 1:44:13.720 --> 1:44:14.040 Oh, yeah. 1:44:14.820 --> 1:44:17.900 Instead of throwing trans people under the bus. And Sherrod 1:44:17.920 --> 1:44:22.700 Brown won. He beat incumbent Republican Senator John Husted, who 1:44:22.900 --> 1:44:27.190 was occupying Vance's seat in Ohio. Sherrod Brown's a former senator, 1:44:27.370 --> 1:44:31.570 a progressive populist. Brown won by about five points, over 1:44:31.570 --> 1:44:36.179 200,000 votes. In 2022, Vance won by six points. Trump 1:44:36.189 --> 1:44:39.700 won Ohio by 11. Sharon Brown, I think, handled this 1:44:40.400 --> 1:44:43.120 as well as any, better than any other kind of 1:44:43.180 --> 1:44:46.880 swing state Democrat. Much better than Josh Turek, who handled 1:44:46.900 --> 1:44:49.929 this the worst, the most kind of anti-trans one of 1:44:49.970 --> 1:44:54.610 these swing state Democrats. In Iowa, Josh Turek beat Ashley 1:44:54.630 --> 1:44:59.210 Hinson in an open seat held by Republicans. Turk won 1:44:59.250 --> 1:45:03.550 by five points. Trump won the state by three points. Remember, 1:45:03.570 --> 1:45:08.550 there was that late polling with the infamous Seltzer poll 1:45:08.610 --> 1:45:14.200 that put Kamala ahead in the 2024 election. Seltzer wasn't wrong. 1:45:14.240 --> 1:45:17.300 She was early. She was two years early. That's the 1:45:17.320 --> 1:45:21.860 election Twitter joke. Because Iowa, not as much as North Carolina, 1:45:21.960 --> 1:45:25.220 but did shift blue and shifted blue in house races 1:45:25.260 --> 1:45:28.540 and special elections these past two years. But Josh Turek, 1:45:28.840 --> 1:45:32.820 the new senator, is definitely more of a moderate. He's 1:45:32.880 --> 1:45:37.900 a self-proclaimed, quote, prairie populist. Whatever, man. While campaigning, he 1:45:37.920 --> 1:45:40.939 moved the farthest to the right on trans issues. He 1:45:41.080 --> 1:45:44.000 definitely bought the hardest into this kind of gender war stuff. 1:45:45.240 --> 1:45:47.440 Prairie populist? What the hell? 1:45:48.460 --> 1:45:55.290 Populism for agricultural... Like workers, small businesses, small farms. I 1:45:55.350 --> 1:45:59.510 hate prairie populists because he is a moderate. But I mean, 1:45:59.530 --> 1:46:02.070 a lot of these guys are running on like affordability 1:46:02.170 --> 1:46:06.099 populist-esque kind of messaging because that's really what has shown 1:46:06.120 --> 1:46:06.660 to be successful. 1:46:07.080 --> 1:46:11.360 Mary Peltola had a pretty anti-trans ad towards the end 1:46:11.380 --> 1:46:12.180 of her campaign. 1:46:13.020 --> 1:46:15.500 She is also one of the more moderate ones. Yes. 1:46:15.720 --> 1:46:19.099 This is in Alaska. This is Alaska. Yeah. Who definitely 1:46:19.260 --> 1:46:21.670 ran as a kind of I would say probably the 1:46:21.710 --> 1:46:26.150 most conservative out of all of the swing state Democratic 1:46:26.189 --> 1:46:30.179 senators in Alaska. Just like in general, like in general, 1:46:30.220 --> 1:46:32.719 the most conservative out of all of these Democratic candidates. 1:46:33.080 --> 1:46:34.580 Like Alaska will always be different, right? 1:46:34.620 --> 1:46:38.680 Like she's one of the few indigenous women who was 1:46:38.700 --> 1:46:41.080 like running for Senate and she ran some stuff on 1:46:41.100 --> 1:46:44.750 like fishing and stuff like that, which would be more 1:46:44.830 --> 1:46:45.530 radical than. 1:46:45.810 --> 1:46:50.389 Fish, family, and faith, I think, work like her main 1:46:51.410 --> 1:46:55.110 campaign slogan. Man, drop the last two, and I agree. 1:46:55.130 --> 1:46:56.509 I'm on board. 1:46:57.890 --> 1:46:59.300 Fish, just fish, just fish. 1:47:00.280 --> 1:47:02.820 We've spoken about this on this podcast before, but there's 1:47:02.900 --> 1:47:06.080 always one behind the bastard. Someone holding a fish, you've 1:47:06.100 --> 1:47:09.700 got to support them. But yeah, it'll be a long time. 1:47:09.960 --> 1:47:11.180 It takes a long time for us to get the 1:47:11.220 --> 1:47:13.300 votes in Alaska, so it'll be a while before we 1:47:13.320 --> 1:47:13.960 know about that one. 1:47:14.770 --> 1:47:18.650 Correct. So we know South Carolina, Iowa, Ohio. These are 1:47:18.680 --> 1:47:22.599 all flips. Yeah. Alaska could be a flip in the 1:47:22.640 --> 1:47:24.780 next day, few days. 1:47:25.080 --> 1:47:25.320 Right. 1:47:26.340 --> 1:47:30.950 Peltola is right now about like 60 votes ahead. with 77% 1:47:30.950 --> 1:47:35.430 of the vote in. Jesus Christ. She's expected to gain 1:47:36.270 --> 1:47:40.850 in her lead, but she's sitting at 48.2. So depending 1:47:40.880 --> 1:47:44.179 on how that goes, this might result in a ranked 1:47:44.260 --> 1:47:47.720 choice instant runoff. Yeah, yeah. And I've not looked into 1:47:48.100 --> 1:47:51.300 this race specifically, and the opinions that I've seen from 1:47:51.340 --> 1:47:55.080 my election people have kind of gone either way of 1:47:55.360 --> 1:47:59.309 whether that runoff would benefit her or hurt her. This 1:47:59.350 --> 1:48:02.470 is the race with the two Dan Sullivans, the Republican 1:48:02.510 --> 1:48:10.220 incumbent senator, Dan Sullivan, Daniel Sullivan Jr., the non-senator, who 1:48:10.260 --> 1:48:14.809 did receive not totally insignificant part of the vote. This 1:48:14.820 --> 1:48:16.729 is how close this race is. Like I said, like 1:48:16.729 --> 1:48:17.410 70 vote difference. 1:48:17.689 --> 1:48:18.549 Yeah. 1:48:18.630 --> 1:48:20.280 I feel like if I had been in Alaska, I 1:48:20.300 --> 1:48:22.719 might've just like, I have no idea about Dan Sullivan Jr. 1:48:22.720 --> 1:48:25.259 's policies to be clear, but like when you're presented 1:48:25.280 --> 1:48:28.340 with someone like either the Republican candidate or the Democrat 1:48:28.380 --> 1:48:31.950 candidate doing transphobic bullshit, like maybe you're just having a 1:48:31.990 --> 1:48:33.439 laugh of voting for Dan Sullivan Jr. 1:48:34.070 --> 1:48:36.450 Like an active abstention. I think that's more likely than 1:48:36.490 --> 1:48:41.269 people who mistook him for being the Republican. The idea 1:48:41.290 --> 1:48:42.790 of people voting for him as a sort of joke 1:48:42.890 --> 1:48:46.190 or protest candidate is certainly possible. So that's part of 1:48:46.220 --> 1:48:50.400 these ranked choice calculations. If Paltola is ranked second on 1:48:50.420 --> 1:48:54.139 some of those Sullivan Jr. ballots, that'll change the game 1:48:54.380 --> 1:48:57.580 as opposed to assuming that all the Sullivan Jr. 1:48:57.600 --> 1:48:57.840 Votes. 1:48:58.270 --> 1:49:01.729 in ranked choice will go towards senator sullivan right yeah 1:49:01.760 --> 1:49:03.500 yeah and that's why it's hard to predict exactly what 1:49:03.520 --> 1:49:05.120 will happen with this race. 1:49:05.460 --> 1:49:08.580 Yeah ranked choices is well it offers some benefits but 1:49:08.600 --> 1:49:10.460 just like it can sometimes take a little bit longer 1:49:10.479 --> 1:49:15.230 i will say i think is extraordinarily condescending to suggest 1:49:15.290 --> 1:49:18.870 that people in alaska don't understand what incumbent means yes 1:49:18.910 --> 1:49:22.510 like it's it's just a fucking nothing burger like like 1:49:22.810 --> 1:49:26.090 it just i know i find it incredibly like Yeah, 1:49:26.130 --> 1:49:28.630 snooty and condescending to suggest that people are that fucking dumb. 1:49:29.570 --> 1:49:32.090 The one other race that we don't quite know the 1:49:32.110 --> 1:49:35.420 result yet and is possibly the most shocking result of 1:49:35.450 --> 1:49:38.380 the entire night is in Mississippi, which might somehow become 1:49:38.400 --> 1:49:44.480 Mississippi with Scott Column against Sidney Hyde-Smith, the Republican incumbent. 1:49:45.280 --> 1:49:49.760 Right now, this race is tied at 48.9 with Democratic 1:49:49.780 --> 1:49:54.479 candidate Scott Column up less than 100 votes. with about 1:49:54.479 --> 1:49:59.939 44,000 votes to be expected still to come in. And 1:50:00.060 --> 1:50:02.099 these are going to be mostly coming in from areas 1:50:02.220 --> 1:50:06.640 where the Democrat column has performed well. But a lot 1:50:06.660 --> 1:50:08.500 of these are going to be mail-in and provisional ballots, 1:50:08.740 --> 1:50:11.059 which can be counted up to five days after the election. 1:50:11.120 --> 1:50:12.889 So we probably won't know the results of this till 1:50:12.900 --> 1:50:16.710 like Saturday. This is super shocking. This deserves its own 1:50:16.729 --> 1:50:20.470 kind of deep dive. I did see one of Colum's 1:50:20.670 --> 1:50:25.100 ads circulating, which targets cost of living and affordability. The 1:50:25.180 --> 1:50:28.939 ad is this clip of Sidney Hyde-Smith being asked on 1:50:28.979 --> 1:50:32.610 a news show what people should do about the price 1:50:32.810 --> 1:50:36.430 of beef getting so expensive. And she said that people should, quote, 1:50:36.570 --> 1:50:43.070 pick another protein. And this ad just totally skewered, skewered 1:50:43.090 --> 1:50:47.630 her over this insane, like elitist response. 1:50:47.970 --> 1:50:48.190 Yeah. 1:50:48.210 --> 1:50:51.490 That's a let them eat cake for half of America. 1:50:51.930 --> 1:50:54.130 And the, the, the crux of the ad was all 1:50:54.150 --> 1:50:58.860 these like, you know, actors playing constituents saying, pick another protein. No, 1:50:59.280 --> 1:51:03.700 I'd rather pick another Senator. And that's the, that's the ad. Amazing. 1:51:04.200 --> 1:51:08.320 So that's Mississippi. We will learn if both Alaska and 1:51:08.340 --> 1:51:12.550 Mississippi flip in these next few days. One state that 1:51:12.570 --> 1:51:15.050 did not flip that I will mention, Florida, with Angie 1:51:15.090 --> 1:51:17.950 Nixon going up against Ashley Moody, the Republican incumbent in 1:51:18.210 --> 1:51:23.470 Rubio's former seat. This race was way closer than Democrats expected. 1:51:23.590 --> 1:51:26.559 This is like a two to three point margin, just 1:51:26.580 --> 1:51:30.680 like over 200,000 votes. if Dems did more spending in 1:51:30.740 --> 1:51:33.660 this race, it could have been even more competitive. Like 1:51:33.680 --> 1:51:36.580 the fact that Nixon did so good in Florida is 1:51:36.620 --> 1:51:39.160 a testament to her as a candidate and her like 1:51:39.200 --> 1:51:40.009 direct ground game. 1:51:40.470 --> 1:51:40.660 Yeah. 1:51:41.270 --> 1:51:44.809 But she got just completely outspent, like just, just, just 1:51:44.870 --> 1:51:47.930 demolished in, in terms, in terms of ad spending. But 1:51:48.010 --> 1:51:50.710 a really, I think a good show for her. I'm 1:51:50.750 --> 1:51:53.490 excited to see what she does in the future. She's 1:51:53.710 --> 1:51:57.710 a strong, a strong labor candidate. Unfortunately, a few days 1:51:57.750 --> 1:52:01.120 before the election, the head of the Teamster, Sean O'Brien, 1:52:01.479 --> 1:52:06.540 endorsed Ashley Moody, the anti-labor candidate. Get O'Brien out of there! 1:52:07.140 --> 1:52:12.719 He sucks! Get him out! Sean O'Brien, fuck off. Anyway, 1:52:13.220 --> 1:52:17.360 there's two other flips that we should talk about. And 1:52:17.550 --> 1:52:20.470 it's time to put on my little cross necklace, time 1:52:20.510 --> 1:52:25.410 to revert back to my childhood Protestantism, because Methodist minister 1:52:26.050 --> 1:52:32.040 Adam Hamilton flipped the Kansas beating Republican incumbent Senator Roger 1:52:32.140 --> 1:52:35.900 Marshall by five points. Just two years ago, Trump won 1:52:35.920 --> 1:52:40.090 Kansas by 16. Marshall won the Senate race by almost 1:52:40.090 --> 1:52:44.550 12 points in 2020. Adam Hamilton ran on cost of living, 1:52:44.750 --> 1:52:47.890 strengthening the right to organize, regulating data centers, abortion rights, 1:52:47.930 --> 1:52:52.790 spanning algorithmic price fixing, combating fraud and scams, targeting seniors, 1:52:53.030 --> 1:52:56.120 protecting their health care, term limits for Congress and the 1:52:56.140 --> 1:53:00.670 Supreme Court, and banning congressional stock trading, and also banning 1:53:01.680 --> 1:53:05.120 politicians from using prediction markets, which is like a new 1:53:05.160 --> 1:53:08.439 kind of addendum to all these congressional stock trading measures. 1:53:08.900 --> 1:53:09.599 Sure, yeah. 1:53:10.460 --> 1:53:12.839 The Kansas flip is, I know, something that the Republicans 1:53:12.880 --> 1:53:16.610 were increasingly worried about these past few months, moving ad 1:53:16.630 --> 1:53:19.110 spending over from North Carolina, which they kind of gave 1:53:19.189 --> 1:53:24.410 up on, into Kansas. But it wasn't enough. Now, there 1:53:24.470 --> 1:53:30.500 is one other big win for christian democrats and we 1:53:30.520 --> 1:53:33.600 will talk about that after this ad break. 1:53:45.229 --> 1:53:49.600 And we're back and the stars at night are big 1:53:49.820 --> 1:53:53.380 and bright Deep in the heart of Texas. I was 1:53:53.400 --> 1:53:55.160 waiting to see if you were going to do the clap, Stephen, 1:53:55.280 --> 1:53:55.780 and you didn't. 1:53:56.200 --> 1:53:56.860 You let me down. 1:53:56.920 --> 1:53:57.639 You let me down. 1:53:57.760 --> 1:53:58.219 Oh, sorry. 1:53:58.460 --> 1:53:58.820 No, no. 1:53:59.780 --> 1:54:00.439 I'm sorry. 1:54:00.460 --> 1:54:04.000 I just, you know, it's with the Zoom, the timing, 1:54:04.040 --> 1:54:05.519 it's always off with the claps. 1:54:05.700 --> 1:54:09.480 This is the first time I have been really shocked 1:54:09.930 --> 1:54:12.900 by an election in Texas. I had come around to 1:54:12.930 --> 1:54:15.429 the fact that Tallarico had a really good chance of winning, 1:54:15.510 --> 1:54:17.770 in fact, was probably going to win, and he did. 1:54:18.560 --> 1:54:22.920 Everything else that happened surprised the shit out of me. Yeah, 1:54:22.960 --> 1:54:24.500 we should probably start by talking about Tallarico. 1:54:24.520 --> 1:54:29.440 I mean, what an absolute bloodbath of an election this was. 1:54:29.820 --> 1:54:30.729 Just a disaster. 1:54:30.770 --> 1:54:35.710 I mean, so Tallarico uniquely performed among Texan candidates, I think, 1:54:36.070 --> 1:54:41.570 in competitive races. He crushed Ken Paxton by 12 points. And, 1:54:41.710 --> 1:54:44.670 you know, that could be attributed to Tallarico being a 1:54:44.670 --> 1:54:49.160 good candidate. Could also be attributed to Ken Paxton being 1:54:49.320 --> 1:54:53.590 widely regarded as the most corrupt guy in politics in 1:54:53.650 --> 1:54:54.870 recent history. 1:54:54.890 --> 1:54:55.230 Oh, yeah. 1:54:55.810 --> 1:54:56.709 The devil incarnate. 1:54:57.950 --> 1:55:01.270 Aidan McLaughlin with Vanity Fair went to a Republican Party 1:55:01.470 --> 1:55:04.950 event at like a fancy steakhouse Butterworth's in D.C. It 1:55:05.290 --> 1:55:08.140 was like an election night party. And obviously the Republicans 1:55:08.160 --> 1:55:11.500 were expecting it to go bad, but it went so 1:55:11.580 --> 1:55:14.720 much worse than they thought. And like the schadenfreude in 1:55:14.760 --> 1:55:18.560 this article is outrageous, but especially like the point in 1:55:18.600 --> 1:55:21.390 the article when it becomes clear that Tallarico is going 1:55:21.430 --> 1:55:23.930 to beat Paxton by like a sizable amount. 1:55:23.970 --> 1:55:25.410 And here's a paragraph from that article. 1:55:26.290 --> 1:55:29.030 As Ella Langley's Choose in Texas blared through the speakers, 1:55:29.110 --> 1:55:31.060 two men at the bar lamented the cruel irony of 1:55:31.070 --> 1:55:34.260 the song playing as Tallarico's comfortable lead expanded over Ken Paxton, 1:55:34.320 --> 1:55:37.320 his Republican challenger. I'm not trying to crash out, said 1:55:37.380 --> 1:55:39.300 one of the men, a Republican organizer of the party. 1:55:39.600 --> 1:55:41.839 But we nominated Hitler with Down syndrome. 1:55:41.940 --> 1:55:43.120 And guess what? He lost. 1:55:43.200 --> 1:55:45.520 He lost. And now we lose a Supreme Court justice. 1:55:45.600 --> 1:55:49.500 It's a fucking disaster. This is at an official Republican 1:55:49.560 --> 1:55:54.470 Party event. This Republican student just called Ken Paxton. Hitler was– 1:55:54.480 --> 1:55:57.500 which like– there's a lot of things wrong with that. 1:55:57.760 --> 1:56:04.970 But wow. Yeah. Like the candidness. Yeah. 1:56:05.120 --> 1:56:08.190 I mean it was an issue early on. People were 1:56:08.230 --> 1:56:11.730 worried that Paxton was a uniquely deficient candidate. 1:56:11.750 --> 1:56:12.190 And he was. 1:56:12.370 --> 1:56:15.840 Relative– to his alternative, John Cornyn, who he beat in 1:56:15.880 --> 1:56:18.900 the primary. But the margins in this race- Cornyn would 1:56:18.920 --> 1:56:22.520 have lost. It's just so large, even Cornyn would have lost. 1:56:22.620 --> 1:56:25.980 It would not have mattered if it had been Cornyn 1:56:26.400 --> 1:56:30.000 or Paxton. But for it to have been Paxton, it 1:56:30.060 --> 1:56:33.850 really added a lot of sugar to that Schengen-Freud sauce 1:56:33.860 --> 1:56:35.810 that you were tasting in that article. 1:56:36.050 --> 1:56:38.190 And the way that they. 1:56:38.110 --> 1:56:41.790 Campaigned towards the end was pretty despicable. I mean, they 1:56:41.930 --> 1:56:45.210 unleashed a whole set of Dirty tricks. You mentioned the 1:56:45.250 --> 1:56:48.570 trans issue earlier, Garrison. That was the last streak of 1:56:48.590 --> 1:56:52.490 the campaign all throughout October. It was either bogus allegations 1:56:52.550 --> 1:56:56.490 that Tallarico is in a mental hospital in Ohio, which 1:56:56.560 --> 1:57:00.260 had been ginned up by an account that is run 1:57:00.300 --> 1:57:05.240 by a criminal old woman, but it's using an AI-generated 1:57:05.460 --> 1:57:06.740 young woman's face. 1:57:07.440 --> 1:57:08.460 It's classic stuff. 1:57:09.130 --> 1:57:15.030 And that got amplified by official campaign operatives incredibly. And 1:57:15.070 --> 1:57:18.450 when that was quickly batted down, it just became all 1:57:18.490 --> 1:57:22.920 about trans issues. And Paxton had interviewed on TV saying 1:57:22.940 --> 1:57:25.160 that's what they think their best line of attack is 1:57:25.220 --> 1:57:29.680 against Tallarico. And consequently, they leaned into that. 1:57:29.800 --> 1:57:30.680 And now we're. 1:57:31.960 --> 1:57:34.910 Trying to figure out still who sent 3 million fraudulent 1:57:34.950 --> 1:57:39.960 mailers to Texans purporting to provide support to trans kids, 1:57:40.000 --> 1:57:43.000 but it was really actually just Republican operatives. So it 1:57:43.040 --> 1:57:46.740 was like a desperate election for these folks. And the 1:57:46.800 --> 1:57:51.280 issue is no longer resonating with Americans, at least in Texas, 1:57:51.780 --> 1:57:54.770 in the way that it maybe was four years ago. 1:57:54.780 --> 1:57:58.930 And I mean, Alarica was expected to be the one 1:57:58.990 --> 1:58:01.290 out of the pack probably to win, but I don't 1:58:01.310 --> 1:58:06.610 think anyone called it with this level of just obliteration 1:58:06.670 --> 1:58:07.650 on the Republican side. 1:58:08.200 --> 1:58:08.460 Yeah. 1:58:09.530 --> 1:58:09.670 No. 1:58:09.940 --> 1:58:11.280 And, you know, it's important. 1:58:11.320 --> 1:58:13.440 Obviously, like gas prices are a big part of this, 1:58:13.600 --> 1:58:15.980 especially for Texans. Like when you tell them you can 1:58:16.020 --> 1:58:18.500 no longer afford to drive for gigantic diesel trucks, that 1:58:18.540 --> 1:58:22.480 pisses them off. It's bad for agriculture. It's bad for 1:58:22.540 --> 1:58:24.430 I mean, like cost of living is a part of this. 1:58:24.520 --> 1:58:26.590 Another part of this that I think has not gotten 1:58:26.630 --> 1:58:30.450 enough attention nationally is is what Dan Patrick and Greg Abbott, 1:58:30.490 --> 1:58:33.080 the governor and lieutenant governor, did to the school voucher 1:58:33.120 --> 1:58:37.180 program in 2025. Like they worked very hard to ram 1:58:37.320 --> 1:58:42.040 through a school voucher program that was not super popular 1:58:42.120 --> 1:58:44.550 in a lot of like rural school districts, like because 1:58:44.590 --> 1:58:47.350 I think people just saw the danger it was going 1:58:47.390 --> 1:58:48.990 to do to their local schools. And he had to 1:58:49.010 --> 1:58:52.610 like really, Patrick especially had to like basically threaten a 1:58:52.670 --> 1:58:55.690 lot of like local legislators in order to like make 1:58:55.730 --> 1:58:58.180 this happen the way they wanted to. And I think 1:58:58.200 --> 1:59:01.620 that cost them a lot of political capital, too, going 1:59:01.660 --> 1:59:04.780 into this. And it really was like this churn of 1:59:06.000 --> 1:59:09.920 both Patrick and Abbott's decisions over the last... They've been 1:59:09.970 --> 1:59:13.870 in power for so long, and so much has gotten worse. 1:59:13.930 --> 1:59:16.130 So you can't campaign, and I'm going to fix everything 1:59:16.150 --> 1:59:18.690 when I've been in power for a decade. And then 1:59:18.790 --> 1:59:21.950 Trump making the situation just all that more calamitous. And 1:59:22.610 --> 1:59:25.650 I do agree, Stephen, that I think that Cornyn would 1:59:25.670 --> 1:59:26.290 have lost, too. 1:59:26.350 --> 1:59:27.270 But part of me wonders. 1:59:28.080 --> 1:59:33.630 Did Paxton being such an obvious criminal, so obviously corrupt, 1:59:34.110 --> 1:59:36.630 and that being front and center in like the part, 1:59:36.710 --> 1:59:40.030 you know, the most funded election in the state, which 1:59:40.070 --> 1:59:42.790 was the election between Tallarico and Paxton, like by far 1:59:42.810 --> 1:59:45.240 the most money was spent on that. And it got 1:59:45.260 --> 1:59:47.720 the most attention. Did the fact that Paxton was in 1:59:47.740 --> 1:59:50.940 the limelight as such a scumbag also maybe drag down 1:59:51.620 --> 1:59:55.640 enthusiasm for the Republican Party in a broader way of like, 1:59:56.120 --> 1:59:59.180 I'm wondering where their people are? you know, just kind 1:59:59.200 --> 2:00:01.850 of habitual Republican voters, like a lot of my family, 2:00:02.310 --> 2:00:05.250 who were just looking at Paxton and the way he was, 2:00:05.890 --> 2:00:07.270 you know, his past and the way he was performing 2:00:07.290 --> 2:00:08.710 this election and going like, I don't want to do 2:00:08.750 --> 2:00:12.070 this anymore. You know, as that compounding with the cost 2:00:12.110 --> 2:00:15.250 of living, compounding with the war, like I really do 2:00:15.330 --> 2:00:19.910 think there was a stew of sickness that got boiled 2:00:19.950 --> 2:00:23.310 up by the Republican Party, both in Texas and nationwide. 2:00:23.970 --> 2:00:26.770 And I think Texas got the biggest dose of it 2:00:26.910 --> 2:00:30.460 in some ways, right? Because there's so much Republican control, 2:00:30.580 --> 2:00:34.060 because the Democratic Party has been useless for so long 2:00:34.100 --> 2:00:34.580 in Texas. 2:00:35.080 --> 2:00:36.880 Zooming out, I mean, it's not just been a decade. 2:00:36.920 --> 2:00:41.460 It's been over three decades since Democrats have won a 2:00:41.500 --> 2:00:46.290 statewide seat. So Republicans have had dominance for as long 2:00:46.350 --> 2:00:47.750 as I've been able to speak. 2:00:48.340 --> 2:00:49.640 In this state. 2:00:49.800 --> 2:00:53.160 And so the idea that they aren't responsible for where 2:00:53.230 --> 2:00:55.790 we are now is incredibly ridiculous. 2:00:55.810 --> 2:00:57.850 It's been a long ass time since Ann Richards. 2:00:58.170 --> 2:01:00.670 And to your point, Paxton was uniquely bad, but it 2:01:00.730 --> 2:01:05.230 wasn't just Paxton. I mean, low energy Paxton, criminal Paxton. 2:01:05.740 --> 2:01:07.700 We had this guy, Beau. 2:01:07.500 --> 2:01:08.260 French, who. 2:01:09.040 --> 2:01:10.160 Beau French. 2:01:10.180 --> 2:01:13.540 He's running for basically a seat that regulates oil and 2:01:13.580 --> 2:01:15.339 gas on a three-seat commission. 2:01:15.420 --> 2:01:17.260 It's the Texas Railroad Commission. 2:01:17.280 --> 2:01:18.200 Stupid name. 2:01:18.260 --> 2:01:22.170 It does not sound important, but is. Yeah. 2:01:22.190 --> 2:01:22.450 Sorry. 2:01:23.070 --> 2:01:28.370 Anyway, he's running, and that was an unnecessary seat because 2:01:28.690 --> 2:01:30.870 they didn't even need to win it to still have 2:01:30.890 --> 2:01:34.700 a majority on the railroad commission. And yet, you know, 2:01:34.860 --> 2:01:37.600 a lot of people went in basically making it seem 2:01:37.620 --> 2:01:40.660 like he must win. And I'm going to be a 2:01:40.660 --> 2:01:43.980 little colorful in my language here, but he basically ran 2:01:44.040 --> 2:01:47.600 on a platform of I am a Hitler youth troop leader. 2:01:48.340 --> 2:01:50.320 Like that's kind of how it came across. 2:01:51.100 --> 2:01:55.100 And so consequently, he was dragging everybody else around with 2:01:55.140 --> 2:01:58.750 him down. We had another person running for Congress, Brandon Herrera, 2:01:58.810 --> 2:02:04.180 who's a ridiculous gun tuber, did not. successfully moderate his 2:02:04.380 --> 2:02:07.780 online edginess, said a bunch of ridiculous stuff, wouldn't even 2:02:07.820 --> 2:02:10.480 walk back some of the stuff that he had said 2:02:10.540 --> 2:02:12.960 in the past. And I mean, I think he suffered 2:02:13.020 --> 2:02:15.520 for it. And also he was running to represent a 2:02:15.560 --> 2:02:18.930 district that had one of the most horrific mass shootings 2:02:19.030 --> 2:02:24.110 at a school in recent history. And he was this 2:02:24.150 --> 2:02:28.250 guy who's out there downplaying or making light of political 2:02:28.290 --> 2:02:31.170 violence when it happens to people who he doesn't like. 2:02:31.810 --> 2:02:34.230 And talking of like Hitler youth, he literally dressed up 2:02:34.290 --> 2:02:35.410 as a Nazi, right? 2:02:35.640 --> 2:02:37.020 Oh, yeah. I profiled him. 2:02:37.060 --> 2:02:41.360 I mean, yeah, his YouTube stuff was incredibly over the top, really, 2:02:41.440 --> 2:02:47.760 really signaling language to extremists, whether it was nods to Rhodesia, 2:02:47.900 --> 2:02:52.410 to the Nazis, to the Boogaloos, you know, you name it. 2:02:52.530 --> 2:02:56.830 He really was in that online stew that was happening 2:02:57.470 --> 2:03:00.960 in the early 2020s. And that's how he rose to 2:03:00.980 --> 2:03:06.070 fame for being this edgy guy. And now that has 2:03:06.150 --> 2:03:09.390 not landed. I mean, I think both him and Beau 2:03:09.430 --> 2:03:13.560 French mistook Twitter for the campaign. 2:03:13.860 --> 2:03:14.080 Yep. 2:03:14.560 --> 2:03:15.560 A lot of people did. 2:03:16.240 --> 2:03:18.260 Exactly. Yeah, I think that's what I wanted to get to. 2:03:18.640 --> 2:03:21.640 And I think we'll talk more about that, I mean, 2:03:21.820 --> 2:03:24.560 today and tomorrow, I'm sure. Speaking more on Texas, one 2:03:24.580 --> 2:03:26.800 thing I want to emphasize to people that surprised me, 2:03:26.820 --> 2:03:29.010 because again, I was open to the Tallarico winning, and 2:03:29.030 --> 2:03:32.030 I thought Gina Hinojosa had a chance. She was polling 2:03:32.090 --> 2:03:33.570 close enough that I was like, she might. 2:03:34.150 --> 2:03:34.910 It's possible. 2:03:35.750 --> 2:03:37.310 But I kind of thought it was going to be. 2:03:37.310 --> 2:03:42.400 Limited to those two big and highly publicized seats. I 2:03:42.420 --> 2:03:44.720 assume maybe the Democrats will do better than usual at 2:03:44.760 --> 2:03:47.760 the state level. this is not what we're seeing is 2:03:47.820 --> 2:03:51.640 not like a few big seats flip in a year 2:03:51.720 --> 2:03:53.940 in which like there's just a lot of things going 2:03:53.980 --> 2:03:58.320 against the Republicans in terms of inertia wise. Texas flipped 2:03:58.700 --> 2:04:01.740 like this was comprehensive across the board, rural districts, a 2:04:01.810 --> 2:04:04.590 lot of rural districts elected Democrats in a variety of 2:04:04.630 --> 2:04:08.330 state positions, too. Like I cannot overemphasize how comprehensive this 2:04:08.450 --> 2:04:11.380 is like. the fact that Greg Abbott is out and 2:04:11.420 --> 2:04:14.380 lost to Hinojosa is, is huge. But one thing that 2:04:14.440 --> 2:04:16.620 is not getting as much attention outside of Texas and should, 2:04:16.660 --> 2:04:19.100 is that Dan Patrick, the Lieutenant governor got his ass 2:04:19.120 --> 2:04:23.200 kicked too. And Dan Patrick is the fucking, like I've 2:04:23.220 --> 2:04:25.180 talked about Paxton is like the most corrupt guy in 2:04:25.220 --> 2:04:28.620 Texas politics. Patrick might be the smartest in terms of 2:04:28.660 --> 2:04:31.480 like right-wing politics. Like he is, he's a bad person, 2:04:31.520 --> 2:04:34.480 but he was a really good politician in terms of 2:04:34.520 --> 2:04:38.060 his ability to marshal power and like votes and get 2:04:38.120 --> 2:04:40.960 things done. He got in, he started in the Senate 2:04:41.080 --> 2:04:45.510 in 2006 and was reelected in 2010. And immediately after 2:04:45.530 --> 2:04:48.550 winning reelection, he created the Texas Tea Party Caucus in 2:04:48.590 --> 2:04:51.410 the Texas state legislature. Like that was kind of like 2:04:51.470 --> 2:04:53.370 one of his first big political moves. 2:04:53.430 --> 2:04:54.390 He got elected. 2:04:54.410 --> 2:04:57.190 He ran in 2014 against David Dewhurst and became the 2:04:57.230 --> 2:05:00.820 lieutenant governor and immediately started pushing like some of the 2:05:00.880 --> 2:05:05.480 most like regressive, like especially on abortion bills. He was 2:05:05.500 --> 2:05:08.080 the guy who authored Texas's mandatory, and this is when 2:05:08.100 --> 2:05:11.060 he was in the Senate, mandatory ultrasound bill, which got 2:05:11.120 --> 2:05:14.150 signed into law in 2011 by Governor Perry, which forced 2:05:14.200 --> 2:05:16.950 women seeking an abortion to have an sonogram of the 2:05:16.990 --> 2:05:19.530 fetus taken before the abortion was performed. 2:05:19.630 --> 2:05:20.250 Holy shit. 2:05:20.600 --> 2:05:23.280 Like that's just one of the fucking hideous things he's 2:05:23.300 --> 2:05:25.410 responsible to. He's a big charter school guy. And I 2:05:25.450 --> 2:05:28.230 talked about how he rammed that stuff through. And he's 2:05:28.330 --> 2:05:30.130 also one of the things that's really important about him. 2:05:30.230 --> 2:05:33.770 He's been really good up until now. A big thing 2:05:33.790 --> 2:05:35.410 he would always do is he would endorse a bunch 2:05:35.450 --> 2:05:39.470 of like local candidates for like state positions. And he 2:05:39.690 --> 2:05:42.770 usually won like his picked candidates usually won state. So 2:05:42.810 --> 2:05:46.510 Patrick had like a massive influence on how the Republican 2:05:46.570 --> 2:05:50.900 Party's like human infrastructure got constructed in the state government. 2:05:51.490 --> 2:05:54.120 And the fact that his ass is out too is 2:05:54.180 --> 2:05:58.120 a huge fucking deal. Like I did not expect him 2:05:58.220 --> 2:06:01.910 to misjudge the moment and lose this election so badly, 2:06:01.950 --> 2:06:02.750 but he fucking did. 2:06:03.150 --> 2:06:06.870 They definitely walked right into some landmines. I mean, flock 2:06:06.950 --> 2:06:11.310 had been a huge issue nationally, but also in Texas. 2:06:12.050 --> 2:06:15.640 Abbott was left holding the bag there. Dan Patrick went 2:06:15.720 --> 2:06:21.080 after pot during the most liberalized form of pot laws 2:06:21.220 --> 2:06:23.530 in Texas, where it was actually pretty easy to get it. 2:06:24.140 --> 2:06:26.220 And you could get edibles, you could get whatever at 2:06:26.260 --> 2:06:28.340 these stores locally. And it was kind of a gray 2:06:28.380 --> 2:06:29.940 market area, thanks to the hemp bill. 2:06:30.420 --> 2:06:32.240 Yeah, yeah, the hemp stuff, yeah. 2:06:32.420 --> 2:06:35.430 He went hard against that, and he pissed off a 2:06:35.510 --> 2:06:36.970 whole swath of people. 2:06:36.990 --> 2:06:40.270 It's like the vast majority of Texans, even rural Texans, love. 2:06:40.390 --> 2:06:44.490 Yeah, and that crosses political lines. And so this is 2:06:44.550 --> 2:06:47.110 kind of the chickens coming home to roost. I mean, 2:06:47.450 --> 2:06:51.880 this part of the Republican Party that had taken power 2:06:51.940 --> 2:06:56.000 up until now in Texas was the furthest right version 2:06:56.100 --> 2:06:59.180 of the Republican Party. They've been having this civil war. 2:06:59.670 --> 2:07:04.070 that's been playing out. These huge donors have been backing 2:07:04.100 --> 2:07:08.600 these primary challengers and consolidating power within the Republican Party. 2:07:09.200 --> 2:07:13.380 And there's this one influencer who posted this insane video recently. 2:07:13.920 --> 2:07:17.290 The caption was like total chud victory. And in fact, 2:07:17.470 --> 2:07:20.170 that is what they have. They had a total chud 2:07:20.410 --> 2:07:23.130 victory within the Republican Party of Texas. 2:07:23.290 --> 2:07:23.530 Yeah. 2:07:23.970 --> 2:07:29.360 And they confused that victory with the actual general victory 2:07:29.440 --> 2:07:33.970 because they assumed that they had this inertia effect. and 2:07:34.010 --> 2:07:36.850 they could not be displaced in this way. Maybe they 2:07:36.870 --> 2:07:39.350 could get a couple seats picked off. Maybe they would 2:07:39.390 --> 2:07:41.370 have to try to get a Senate seat back. 2:07:41.430 --> 2:07:43.080 But Texas will never flip. 2:07:43.120 --> 2:07:46.160 So I do want to caveat one thing, Robert. You're 2:07:46.180 --> 2:07:49.000 right to say that this has been a total shift, right? 2:07:49.060 --> 2:07:53.560 I mean, really major regime change. But the Senate in Texas, 2:07:53.590 --> 2:07:56.650 the state Senate, is still Republican majority. Yes, they still 2:07:56.690 --> 2:07:59.450 have one majority on the Supreme Court. So yes, you know, 2:07:59.490 --> 2:08:01.070 there's there's going to be some interesting stuff in the 2:08:01.120 --> 2:08:03.980 next two years. It's impossible to even really say what 2:08:04.160 --> 2:08:05.620 is possible at this point. 2:08:05.980 --> 2:08:06.760 Yes, yes. 2:08:07.180 --> 2:08:08.560 And I don't mean to say flipped in the terms 2:08:08.580 --> 2:08:10.760 that and now Texas is blue forever. It could it 2:08:10.800 --> 2:08:13.200 could there's a very good chance and probably likeliest that 2:08:13.240 --> 2:08:16.580 it'll vote for Republican in 2028. Like I'm not saying that. 2:08:16.640 --> 2:08:20.310 But like, This is more than just, oh, Trump's doing 2:08:20.350 --> 2:08:22.790 bad this year, so a couple of Democrats slipped in, right? 2:08:22.850 --> 2:08:27.610 This is evidence of a deep structural rot in the 2:08:27.650 --> 2:08:30.140 Texas Republican Party, right? And I think it is what 2:08:30.160 --> 2:08:33.650 you were saying, Stephen. These guys convinced themselves— because the 2:08:33.730 --> 2:08:36.380 chuds were able to take over and dominate the state 2:08:36.440 --> 2:08:40.780 Republican Party, and because Texas just kind of habitually elected Republicans, 2:08:40.820 --> 2:08:43.560 they convinced themselves, well, what we're doing is popular and 2:08:43.600 --> 2:08:48.520 we can never lose, right? And it's not popular. Just 2:08:48.560 --> 2:08:50.200 as one last bit before we move on of Texas 2:08:50.240 --> 2:08:52.940 of schadenfreude, you can really be satisfied with the fact 2:08:52.960 --> 2:08:55.690 that Dan Patrick is out of his job, among many 2:08:55.730 --> 2:08:59.550 other shitty things. In 2016, Dan Patrick, after the Pulse 2:08:59.590 --> 2:09:02.270 nightclub shooting in Orlando, is the guy who tweeted, do 2:09:02.330 --> 2:09:05.370 not be deceived. God cannot be mocked. A man reaps 2:09:05.430 --> 2:09:09.210 what he sows. Galatians 6-7. That's fucking Dan Patrick, and 2:09:09.230 --> 2:09:10.110 he's out on his ass. 2:09:10.530 --> 2:09:13.700 Fuck him. Any other things you wanted to add in, Stephen, 2:09:13.760 --> 2:09:14.760 from your write-up? 2:09:15.270 --> 2:09:17.910 No, I mean, I just encourage people to maybe temper 2:09:17.970 --> 2:09:22.100 their expectations, right? Because just because it's a misresult, it 2:09:22.110 --> 2:09:26.400 doesn't mean that anything of major significance will even happen 2:09:26.560 --> 2:09:28.420 in the next two years. They have a bunch of 2:09:28.460 --> 2:09:33.220 roadblocks that will prevent some major changes. But I think 2:09:33.280 --> 2:09:37.740 we could see reasonably some moderate Republicans crossing the aisle 2:09:37.860 --> 2:09:41.740 on some specific issues, maybe pot, for example, because those 2:09:41.800 --> 2:09:44.560 are easy and popular issues. you know, it's going to 2:09:44.600 --> 2:09:48.560 take at least another election or two in this same 2:09:48.620 --> 2:09:53.750 trajectory for Texas to really have like a reconstruction type 2:09:53.830 --> 2:09:58.270 situation at hand. But I do think, you know, these 2:09:58.330 --> 2:10:01.820 results make me believe that the election two years from 2:10:01.860 --> 2:10:06.560 now it'll be competitive. It depends on who's running, but Texas, 2:10:06.660 --> 2:10:08.900 it's incredible, but Texas is very likely to be a 2:10:08.940 --> 2:10:09.800 battleground state. 2:10:10.040 --> 2:10:10.280 Yeah. 2:10:10.560 --> 2:10:12.430 I feel the same way right now about Texas, honestly, 2:10:12.450 --> 2:10:14.410 that I do about Brazil in the wake of Lula's 2:10:14.450 --> 2:10:16.730 victory and that there's a lot of problems. This does 2:10:16.810 --> 2:10:20.270 not mean it's going to be an easy road. There's 2:10:20.290 --> 2:10:23.850 still a shitload of right-wing power in Texas, but it's 2:10:23.910 --> 2:10:26.270 a fight now. They're not just going to be curb 2:10:26.330 --> 2:10:28.880 stomping the left, the Democrats, whatever you want to call 2:10:28.900 --> 2:10:31.900 them for the next however many years. There's actually going 2:10:31.940 --> 2:10:34.500 to be a struggle over what's going to happen in 2:10:34.520 --> 2:10:36.770 state politics. And that has not been the case since 2:10:36.820 --> 2:10:40.690 I've been alive. Anyway, I'm feeling good. 2:10:41.990 --> 2:10:43.730 Let's go one more ad break and then we will 2:10:44.050 --> 2:10:47.850 return to talk about, I don't know, voter trends, miscellaneous 2:10:47.890 --> 2:10:50.130 other election news. There's a lot of news. It's a 2:10:50.170 --> 2:11:06.920 big election. Welcome back. We just discussed Greg Abbott, who 2:11:07.020 --> 2:11:09.340 is now out of a job. I'll grab it. 2:11:10.020 --> 2:11:10.220 Sure. 2:11:10.240 --> 2:11:10.660 You know what? 2:11:10.700 --> 2:11:10.940 Sure. 2:11:11.040 --> 2:11:13.540 I'll give it to you. This is your day, Robert. 2:11:13.600 --> 2:11:14.000 You get it. 2:11:14.260 --> 2:11:15.300 Thank you. Thank you. 2:11:15.640 --> 2:11:19.210 Thank you, Gare. But there's actually four other Republican governors 2:11:19.250 --> 2:11:22.830 who are also out of a job, or at least 2:11:22.970 --> 2:11:27.110 candidates who will not be taking a job, like Vivek Ramaswamy, 2:11:27.250 --> 2:11:31.810 who will not be the governor of Ohio. Amy Acton 2:11:32.130 --> 2:11:38.970 will be governor of Ohio. Fuck Ramaswamy. Oh, my God. Yeah, 2:11:39.090 --> 2:11:43.670 what a disgusting campaign. Fuck me. Vivek, it rhymes with loser. 2:11:47.790 --> 2:11:51.340 It's amazing to see even a line for, like, some 2:11:51.410 --> 2:11:55.400 people in the modern Republican Party. Like, clearly not Trump 2:11:55.420 --> 2:11:57.640 because he endorsed that ad, but, like, the degree to 2:11:57.660 --> 2:11:59.540 which people are like, what the fuck, man, on his 2:11:59.660 --> 2:12:00.720 own side was nuts. 2:12:01.740 --> 2:12:03.760 Acton has a lot of problems, a lot of the 2:12:03.920 --> 2:12:06.200 same kind of trans issues that a lot of these 2:12:06.760 --> 2:12:10.530 swing state candidates on the statewide races have. But what 2:12:10.790 --> 2:12:13.890 the Ramaswamy campaign did these past few weeks is so, 2:12:14.290 --> 2:12:18.010 so despicable that I want whatever is worse for him 2:12:18.470 --> 2:12:21.820 for the rest of his life. It's so gross. He 2:12:21.860 --> 2:12:24.610 ended up losing by eight points. I hope to never 2:12:24.650 --> 2:12:26.870 see him again. I'm sure I will. I'm sure I'll 2:12:26.890 --> 2:12:30.730 be sitting here two years from now talking about Ramaswamy. Yeah, 2:12:30.810 --> 2:12:32.230 he's going to try something. 2:12:32.260 --> 2:12:34.940 It's going to be hard to come back from rapping 2:12:35.200 --> 2:12:39.360 Lose Yourself at a rally event and knowing seemingly all 2:12:39.380 --> 2:12:42.700 the lyrics. He sure did lose himself, though. Yeah, and 2:12:42.720 --> 2:12:46.750 then losing really bad. And then losing. Unfortunately, he did 2:12:46.810 --> 2:12:49.690 not have one shot. He's had two already. He's fucked 2:12:49.710 --> 2:12:51.270 them both up, but he keeps coming back. 2:12:51.930 --> 2:12:56.560 Yeah, I wish him only the worst. Georgia. Georgia. Former 2:12:56.700 --> 2:13:01.660 Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms won the race for Georgia governor, 2:13:02.160 --> 2:13:08.150 beating Rick Jackson, who was running for a previously Republican-held position. 2:13:08.990 --> 2:13:13.830 Also won by around eight to nine points. Rob Sand 2:13:14.070 --> 2:13:17.290 beat Zach Lind in Iowa to also claim the governorship 2:13:17.350 --> 2:13:21.080 for the Democrats. The one that I really did not 2:13:21.200 --> 2:13:23.380 see coming, or at least didn't have on my radar... 2:13:23.690 --> 2:13:29.750 is Nevada, where Democrat Aaron Ford beat incumbent Republican Joe 2:13:29.870 --> 2:13:34.860 Lombardo by about seven points. These flips kind of go 2:13:34.960 --> 2:13:40.860 alongside of various state legislatures also flipping or at least 2:13:40.940 --> 2:13:44.100 moving towards the Democrats, which is the big trend of 2:13:44.150 --> 2:13:48.330 the night, around 15 to 30 point shifts towards the 2:13:48.350 --> 2:13:53.010 Democrats in both top of ballot races and down ballot races. 2:13:53.910 --> 2:13:58.720 Dems ended up gaining five new state trifectas after flipping 2:13:58.760 --> 2:14:03.780 Nevada's governor, the Minnesota and Michigan state houses, the Pennsylvania Senate, 2:14:04.340 --> 2:14:08.720 and flipping the Wisconsin Senate and House while holding onto 2:14:08.780 --> 2:14:12.420 control of the governor's office. And on top of that, 2:14:13.080 --> 2:14:17.870 balance was shifted to Democrats by winning the Arizona State Senate, 2:14:17.950 --> 2:14:21.070 the Georgia House, the New Hampshire House and Senate, North 2:14:21.110 --> 2:14:25.650 Carolina's House, and the Texas House, though Democrats fell short 2:14:25.710 --> 2:14:29.470 of a trifecta in those states. Kevin, do we want 2:14:29.550 --> 2:14:32.370 to discuss the West Coast? 2:14:32.770 --> 2:14:36.390 Yeah, I can start with the West Coast. So, you know, 2:14:36.510 --> 2:14:41.050 in Oregon, things are generally a little bit boring. Not 2:14:41.090 --> 2:14:44.910 a whole lot really happened. It's possible that the Democrats 2:14:45.010 --> 2:14:47.810 might expand a little bit in the state legislature with 2:14:47.840 --> 2:14:52.100 their supermajority, but that hasn't necessarily gotten us a whole 2:14:52.140 --> 2:14:54.040 lot in the past few. 2:14:53.740 --> 2:14:55.720 Years, unfortunately. Yeah. 2:14:55.800 --> 2:14:58.020 I don't know what you should expect from a slightly 2:14:58.080 --> 2:15:01.450 bigger Democratic lead in Oregon that's different from what we've got, 2:15:02.150 --> 2:15:03.670 which people are not happy with, by the way. 2:15:03.690 --> 2:15:06.490 It's been a disappointing time, but I think one of 2:15:06.510 --> 2:15:11.550 the interesting things is like, despite Our Oregon governor, Tina Kotek, 2:15:11.610 --> 2:15:13.790 is like one of the least popular governors in the 2:15:13.830 --> 2:15:18.470 entire country. And even still, she's very bad at it. Yeah, 2:15:18.490 --> 2:15:21.270 she's really bad at it. And she gained it looks 2:15:21.350 --> 2:15:23.890 at least preliminary results are showing that she actually has 2:15:23.930 --> 2:15:27.810 an even wider margin on Christine Drazen. So it's it's 2:15:27.870 --> 2:15:30.090 just it just didn't matter. Everybody just hates it. 2:15:30.850 --> 2:15:36.050 Mostly Republican poll sponsored polls that showed Drazen ahead during 2:15:36.070 --> 2:15:38.190 that period of time when she was polling ahead. And 2:15:38.230 --> 2:15:40.370 I kept I always felt like that can't be right. Like, 2:15:40.470 --> 2:15:43.340 I know we all hate Tina Kotek, but that can't 2:15:43.350 --> 2:15:45.540 be right. They don't no one likes Drazen. 2:15:45.700 --> 2:15:48.240 No, she's I mean, it's like I've been to events 2:15:48.280 --> 2:15:50.320 where they're talking. It's just like she's trying to sell 2:15:50.380 --> 2:15:52.840 like I am not a crazy Trumper. And it's like, well, 2:15:52.860 --> 2:15:54.000 we all know who you are. 2:15:54.220 --> 2:15:57.120 Like she was her big ad that people were really 2:15:57.190 --> 2:15:59.370 worried about and the democratic party, cause they thought it 2:15:59.390 --> 2:16:01.890 was going to work. Some of them did was, Hey, 2:16:01.950 --> 2:16:04.230 don't worry. I won't ban abortion. Like she literally ran 2:16:04.270 --> 2:16:06.070 an ad to be like, I'm not going to ban abortion. 2:16:06.270 --> 2:16:07.870 If I, if I'm the governor, trust me. 2:16:08.350 --> 2:16:12.700 Like that's not a good sign. No, God, no. Yeah. 2:16:12.780 --> 2:16:17.020 Other than that, like the DSA candidates held on Portland 2:16:17.040 --> 2:16:19.540 city council. And that's, so that's a pretty big win 2:16:19.580 --> 2:16:21.820 for them. And then I think there's one of the, 2:16:22.260 --> 2:16:25.580 you know, kind of more concerning DSA state house races 2:16:25.640 --> 2:16:27.760 that I think went to a ballot chase last time 2:16:27.820 --> 2:16:30.940 with Leslie Munoz. It looks like she is going to win. 2:16:30.970 --> 2:16:34.130 So they're going to expand a little bit in the 2:16:34.150 --> 2:16:37.890 state legislature. And, but that's like kind of all that 2:16:37.950 --> 2:16:40.170 really happened in Oregon, as far as I can tell 2:16:40.209 --> 2:16:44.520 right now. And then in Washington, well, I think we'll 2:16:44.540 --> 2:16:48.530 probably talk a little bit about the unfortunate, prop results 2:16:48.750 --> 2:16:51.610 in California around the billionaire's tax, but we did get 2:16:51.629 --> 2:16:55.590 a win, it looks like, in Washington with the, they 2:16:55.640 --> 2:16:58.820 voted not to repeal the millionaire's tax. So that's a 2:16:58.980 --> 2:17:00.619 nice little bit of a counter there. 2:17:00.640 --> 2:17:00.720 Yeah. 2:17:02.220 --> 2:17:08.330 Unfortunately, the other measure was the school sports by biological 2:17:08.390 --> 2:17:12.750 sex one, which is really disappointing looking right now. It 2:17:12.990 --> 2:17:15.950 seems very unlikely that it would flip back, but basically- 2:17:16.709 --> 2:17:22.650 anti-trans legislation. According to Como News, they said that it's 2:17:22.690 --> 2:17:25.980 a measure that would require students to undergo a physical 2:17:26.080 --> 2:17:31.480 exam documenting sex assigned at birth before participating in interscholastic sports, 2:17:32.360 --> 2:17:36.900 which Jesus fucking Christ. I, yeah, I don't know how 2:17:37.000 --> 2:17:39.920 people justify voting on these things. I don't know. 2:17:39.940 --> 2:17:43.390 This, this needs to get fucking sued. There needs to be, 2:17:43.410 --> 2:17:45.310 this needs, this needs to be a Supreme state Supreme 2:17:45.330 --> 2:17:45.830 court case. 2:17:46.129 --> 2:17:46.390 Yeah. 2:17:46.490 --> 2:17:46.789 Yeah. 2:17:46.810 --> 2:17:46.949 Yeah. 2:17:47.150 --> 2:17:51.279 This is massive. Like another article from KNKX is saying 2:17:51.440 --> 2:17:54.740 the ACLU plans to fight it with discrimination lawsuits. And 2:17:55.120 --> 2:18:00.540 there's also questions remaining about implementation. But yeah, it's even 2:18:00.620 --> 2:18:04.199 stupider because there was another thing where like the Washington 2:18:04.260 --> 2:18:08.350 Interscholastic Activities Association, they don't even have a count anymore. 2:18:08.770 --> 2:18:11.750 of how many like trans students are. There's no, they 2:18:11.770 --> 2:18:15.590 don't track this. There's like, this could be like literally, 2:18:16.050 --> 2:18:16.810 it's just insane. 2:18:17.010 --> 2:18:17.670 It's ridiculous. 2:18:17.770 --> 2:18:18.050 I don't. 2:18:18.430 --> 2:18:18.670 Yeah. 2:18:19.250 --> 2:18:20.070 Really disappointing. 2:18:20.610 --> 2:18:24.170 Not enough people pay attention to ballot measures. And the 2:18:24.209 --> 2:18:26.550 fact that this thing won by a few hundred thousand votes, 2:18:26.570 --> 2:18:29.770 I mean, that is awful. Yeah. Then there needed to 2:18:29.810 --> 2:18:32.550 be more organized against this. And people in general, they 2:18:32.570 --> 2:18:36.250 need to get, the whole ballot measure process needs to 2:18:36.290 --> 2:18:42.190 be reformed. Like it's so, and it allows people to 2:18:42.250 --> 2:18:44.640 shoehorn all these things in that don't get the same 2:18:44.680 --> 2:18:48.340 attention as some of the other candidate races do. 2:18:49.000 --> 2:18:53.750 No, and they're often like mis- represented badly by the 2:18:53.790 --> 2:18:56.330 people who are getting signatures to get them on the ballot. 2:18:56.470 --> 2:18:58.010 And in terms of like how they're framed. 2:18:58.190 --> 2:18:58.450 Yeah. 2:18:58.490 --> 2:18:59.370 Even the phrasing. 2:18:59.550 --> 2:18:59.830 Yeah. 2:19:00.150 --> 2:19:00.970 It's, it's issues. 2:19:00.990 --> 2:19:02.189 We have a lot of issues with that in the 2:19:02.230 --> 2:19:03.270 Northwest in particular. 2:19:03.310 --> 2:19:03.470 Yeah. 2:19:03.510 --> 2:19:07.430 It's been bad in California too. God. Yeah. And this Washington, 2:19:07.670 --> 2:19:10.660 like trans sports restrictions, not the only one of its 2:19:10.740 --> 2:19:12.740 kind that passed this election. 2:19:13.080 --> 2:19:13.260 No. 2:19:13.660 --> 2:19:16.179 One in Arizona, one in Colorado, and then another proposition 2:19:16.200 --> 2:19:21.580 in Colorado prohibiting quote surgeries to alter a minor's sex characteristics. 2:19:22.670 --> 2:19:26.110 which similarly passed by just like less than 100,000 votes 2:19:26.290 --> 2:19:30.240 as of time of recording. These are very small margins, 2:19:30.780 --> 2:19:32.740 but they did pass. And that is bad. 2:19:32.940 --> 2:19:34.539 Yeah, that's what matters. 2:19:34.940 --> 2:19:37.220 Which is very interesting is there was something similar in Missouri, 2:19:37.720 --> 2:19:40.520 which did not pass. There was a constitutional amendment to 2:19:40.560 --> 2:19:43.600 repeal the right to abortion and prohibit gender transition care 2:19:43.620 --> 2:19:47.490 for minors, which did not pass. And this is a 2:19:47.510 --> 2:19:52.030 really interesting example of something not passing in Missouri. But 2:19:52.110 --> 2:19:53.629 passing in Washington state. 2:19:54.129 --> 2:19:56.060 You said it was an abortion. Was it an abortion 2:19:56.090 --> 2:19:58.520 ban and an anti? Were those two bills or one? 2:19:58.600 --> 2:19:59.539 They crammed them together. 2:19:59.560 --> 2:19:59.939 Yeah. 2:20:00.140 --> 2:20:00.619 Okay. 2:20:00.660 --> 2:20:00.980 Yeah. 2:20:01.220 --> 2:20:02.340 That helps probably explain it. 2:20:02.459 --> 2:20:02.740 Yeah. 2:20:03.400 --> 2:20:05.830 Another small thing in the Northwest, I did see that 2:20:06.080 --> 2:20:09.490 Idaho did not- I was about to mention that. Yeah. 2:20:09.550 --> 2:20:12.650 They also did not, or they blocked abortion access. I 2:20:12.670 --> 2:20:15.350 forget exactly. James, you might know a little better than me, but- Yeah. 2:20:15.370 --> 2:20:15.450 Yeah. 2:20:15.879 --> 2:20:19.330 It was Prop 1, which Idaho voters would amend state 2:20:19.370 --> 2:20:23.010 law to establish a right to abortion up to the 2:20:23.070 --> 2:20:24.789 point where the fetus is viable. 2:20:25.350 --> 2:20:25.630 Yeah. 2:20:25.970 --> 2:20:29.330 Idaho, of course, also voted for its state gun yesterday. 2:20:29.450 --> 2:20:30.630 Not sure how that went down for them. 2:20:30.730 --> 2:20:34.600 Are you serious? Oh, yeah, absolutely. Yes, they did. But 2:20:34.620 --> 2:20:35.480 they were all bad. 2:20:35.540 --> 2:20:36.860 None of them are, for one thing, none of them 2:20:36.920 --> 2:20:38.760 are Idaho guns, although a couple of them were made 2:20:38.800 --> 2:20:41.080 by a Mormon, and Idaho has a large Mormon population. 2:20:41.100 --> 2:20:41.340 Yeah. 2:20:41.740 --> 2:20:41.879 Yep. 2:20:42.340 --> 2:20:44.459 None of them are appropriate because the state gun for 2:20:44.600 --> 2:20:46.939 Idaho should be the same state gun that I approve 2:20:47.000 --> 2:20:49.519 of for Oregon, the life card, which is a, it 2:20:49.570 --> 2:20:52.830 looks like a little, like a card you'd fit in 2:20:52.850 --> 2:20:56.580 your wallet, but it unfolds into a. 380 or a. 2:20:56.510 --> 2:20:57.010 22 or a. 2:20:56.950 --> 2:20:57.070 32. 2:20:57.070 --> 2:20:57.810 I think it's a. 2:20:57.790 --> 2:20:57.850 22. 2:20:57.830 --> 2:20:59.330 No, they have three calibers now, James. Oh, they have 2:20:59.350 --> 2:20:59.890 the three calibers. 2:20:59.910 --> 2:21:02.730 But there's no trigger guard, which means there's nothing between 2:21:02.790 --> 2:21:05.920 your gun firing and the world but air. And I 2:21:05.950 --> 2:21:09.580 think that perfectly embodies the frontier spirit of the Northwest, 2:21:09.760 --> 2:21:09.980 you know? 2:21:11.570 --> 2:21:13.609 People seem really shocked by the state gun thing. Tons 2:21:13.650 --> 2:21:15.350 of states already have state guns. 2:21:15.490 --> 2:21:15.750 Yeah. 2:21:15.830 --> 2:21:18.470 Tennessee's is the stupidest. I think it's like the Barrett 2:21:18.530 --> 2:21:20.529 Light 50 Cal. That's just dumb. 2:21:20.590 --> 2:21:23.660 That's just like Reddit shit. Fuck off. 2:21:25.020 --> 2:21:27.140 One last piece of Northwest election news I wanted to cover. 2:21:27.300 --> 2:21:30.779 So in the Portland City Council races, because we had 2:21:30.940 --> 2:21:33.689 several people up for election there, Mitch Green is an 2:21:33.750 --> 2:21:38.600 economist who represents District 4. And he got, earlier this year, 2:21:39.150 --> 2:21:43.250 a right-wing reporter dug up some old tweets from his 2:21:43.330 --> 2:21:44.790 Twitter in 2022. 2:21:44.790 --> 2:21:46.410 I wouldn't call him a reporter, but. 2:21:47.090 --> 2:21:51.010 Yeah, yeah, a reporter, quote-unquote, right? A blogger, Max Steele. 2:21:51.030 --> 2:21:52.280 Yeah. Found some posts that he. 2:21:52.400 --> 2:21:55.140 Mitch had deleted in 2022, I guess, in preparation for 2:21:55.160 --> 2:21:58.540 his political career, but he posted in 2020 and 2021 2:21:58.540 --> 2:22:01.340 during the protests, and he had expressed his pure hatred 2:22:01.410 --> 2:22:04.140 for the Portland police. And so that got brought up 2:22:04.160 --> 2:22:06.340 and there was a, there were like billboards outside of 2:22:06.379 --> 2:22:08.660 like my place and like a bunch of places in 2:22:08.720 --> 2:22:11.800 Portland that have like Mitch's hatred of police or also 2:22:12.120 --> 2:22:14.790 he was laid on taxes once. He had a fire 2:22:14.930 --> 2:22:16.650 in his yard when he shouldn't have had a fire 2:22:16.709 --> 2:22:18.230 in his yard. Like crazy shit. 2:22:18.250 --> 2:22:19.830 Like a normal Portlander. 2:22:20.070 --> 2:22:20.289 Right. 2:22:20.670 --> 2:22:20.870 Yeah. 2:22:20.890 --> 2:22:24.529 What a fucking nextdoor.com coded fucking campaign. It's all massive 2:22:24.650 --> 2:22:27.510 like business lobby pack spending and stuff that's all like 2:22:27.640 --> 2:22:29.260 sheltered and different. Yeah. 2:22:29.440 --> 2:22:31.240 It's crazy. And it didn't work. 2:22:31.670 --> 2:22:34.970 Mitch won re-election along with the other people that he 2:22:34.990 --> 2:22:36.730 was running alongside the other progressives. 2:22:36.870 --> 2:22:39.030 Yeah, he was one of like the six Oregon statewide 2:22:39.090 --> 2:22:41.750 DSA candidates. Partly, I think generally it was a good 2:22:41.810 --> 2:22:44.410 response when he was asked like, do you still stand 2:22:44.450 --> 2:22:47.210 by your hatred for the Portland police? He said, I 2:22:47.250 --> 2:22:49.310 would not characterize the police today that way. I know 2:22:49.330 --> 2:22:51.480 some police officers now because I'm a city counselor. I've 2:22:51.510 --> 2:22:53.740 met some police officers who I think genuinely care about 2:22:53.770 --> 2:22:54.140 our city. 2:22:54.430 --> 2:22:56.220 I do want a world where we abolish the police. 2:22:56.280 --> 2:22:59.350 That's what I'm trying to build. So he kind of 2:22:59.390 --> 2:23:01.640 hemmed by saying there's some good ones, but also I 2:23:01.660 --> 2:23:05.480 want to abolish them. So I don't know. More or 2:23:05.520 --> 2:23:07.620 less on balance, good. And I'm glad he won real. 2:23:07.660 --> 2:23:10.750 I'm glad the fucking massive ad campaign against him didn't 2:23:10.780 --> 2:23:13.530 work because it was really gross. Anyway, that's all I got. 2:23:13.870 --> 2:23:15.830 Funny note on that. I actually wrote a story on 2:23:15.870 --> 2:23:18.410 my sub stack not too long ago about how his 2:23:18.490 --> 2:23:21.939 donations massively went up after that story ran. 2:23:21.959 --> 2:23:22.039 Yeah. 2:23:24.410 --> 2:23:26.110 It made me want to. That's awesome. 2:23:26.350 --> 2:23:29.970 Should I take us to something positive on data centers? 2:23:30.330 --> 2:23:33.990 Yes. Let's talk about some good proposition or ballot measures. 2:23:34.010 --> 2:23:34.270 Yeah. 2:23:34.410 --> 2:23:35.050 Oh, are we building? 2:23:35.150 --> 2:23:36.879 I love data centers. Are we building a new one? 2:23:37.190 --> 2:23:39.640 The short of it is that data center just got 2:23:39.760 --> 2:23:44.879 absolutely clobbered in this election. According to CNBC, there were 2:23:44.879 --> 2:23:48.080 41 data center related ballot measures on the docket across 2:23:48.080 --> 2:23:50.959 10 different states, 21 of which were in Ohio. And 2:23:52.240 --> 2:23:55.340 All but one of those failed, or at least in 2:23:55.379 --> 2:23:58.830 the direction. So everybody voted against data centers. The one 2:23:58.860 --> 2:24:02.709 that did pass was in Harwood, North Dakota, where voters 2:24:02.930 --> 2:24:06.830 went against the charter amendment, which required additional review before 2:24:06.890 --> 2:24:10.470 city approval of industrial projects, which includes data centers. A 2:24:10.970 --> 2:24:14.130 lot of these are like local jurisdictional things. But I 2:24:14.170 --> 2:24:16.170 think something that was interesting is while a lot of 2:24:16.190 --> 2:24:19.290 the vote counts are quite small, in nearly all of 2:24:19.370 --> 2:24:22.830 the cases, the margins were Very wide. I think I 2:24:22.930 --> 2:24:26.800 was looking at Ballotpedia and only one of them, I think, 2:24:26.860 --> 2:24:30.360 was within 10 points. They were all like huge. 2:24:30.400 --> 2:24:33.480 That makes sense. Yeah. Among the people who care about 2:24:33.500 --> 2:24:35.609 this issue, they really care about this issue. 2:24:35.629 --> 2:24:35.709 Yeah. 2:24:36.030 --> 2:24:36.210 Yeah. 2:24:38.030 --> 2:24:39.390 I personally am shocked. 2:24:39.450 --> 2:24:42.450 And I really, I feel like the only explanation for 2:24:42.470 --> 2:24:45.670 this is that people haven't read quite enough articles by 2:24:45.690 --> 2:24:48.369 AI company CEOs talking about how their product is going 2:24:48.390 --> 2:24:50.490 to kill everybody. You know, one more of those will 2:24:50.510 --> 2:24:53.160 convince people that data centers, more data centers are good. 2:24:53.450 --> 2:24:53.670 Yeah. 2:24:55.320 --> 2:24:58.400 It went so poorly for them that even Elon Musk 2:24:58.520 --> 2:25:01.620 posted last night, the data centers in space looking pretty 2:25:01.700 --> 2:25:04.859 appealing right now, which hopefully. 2:25:04.940 --> 2:25:07.360 That's as real as everything else you advocate, Elon. 2:25:07.379 --> 2:25:07.459 Yeah. 2:25:09.970 --> 2:25:12.789 I think this is just kind of an interesting position 2:25:12.890 --> 2:25:16.850 for these companies. With Ohio, with 21 of these failing, 2:25:16.910 --> 2:25:19.060 and they were, I guess, according to CNBC, the most 2:25:19.500 --> 2:25:23.480 business-friendly state in the nation last year. OpenAI has a 2:25:23.520 --> 2:25:26.380 giant project coming in there, but this is just a 2:25:26.560 --> 2:25:31.769 massive setback. And there was the crypto AI and gambling industry. 2:25:32.870 --> 2:25:37.010 lobby spent hundreds of millions of dollars this year. And 2:25:37.070 --> 2:25:39.429 so having, and I think a lot of that might, 2:25:39.610 --> 2:25:42.289 might have gone more into like candidate races. I don't 2:25:42.330 --> 2:25:44.810 know exactly how this would have worked with measures, but 2:25:45.590 --> 2:25:49.070 basically this, you know, follows the polling on data centers. 2:25:49.209 --> 2:25:51.270 And I just think it'll be interesting to see how 2:25:51.310 --> 2:25:54.289 this plays out with how shaky things are in the 2:25:57.610 --> 2:26:02.330 Do not need more barriers to building compute capacity right now. 2:26:02.600 --> 2:26:04.980 That is really bad for them. 2:26:05.080 --> 2:26:07.940 And this is, to caveat off of your point, this 2:26:08.000 --> 2:26:12.500 is something that the AI and crypto industries spent a 2:26:12.740 --> 2:26:16.670 shitload on this on the midterms, and it nearly all failed. 2:26:17.030 --> 2:26:18.029 Massive disaster. 2:26:18.050 --> 2:26:20.730 There's a really good Gizmodo article on this by Bruce Gill, 2:26:20.810 --> 2:26:22.550 and I'm going to read just a brief quote from that. 2:26:23.379 --> 2:26:27.660 Crypto and AI-focused SuperPAC spent $ 112 million supporting and opposing 2:26:27.720 --> 2:26:30.840 candidates in the general election alone, according to Tech Influence Watch. 2:26:31.020 --> 2:26:33.980 As of Wednesday morning, $ 74. 7 million of that spending had 2:26:34.020 --> 2:26:37.250 gone toward losing candidates or efforts to defeat winning candidates. 2:26:37.770 --> 2:26:39.970 The losses came despite an influx of money from Silicon 2:26:39.990 --> 2:26:42.510 Valley into this year's elections. Overall, crypto and AI companies 2:26:42.530 --> 2:26:46.410 and employees contributed more than $ 506 million to political committees 2:26:46.430 --> 2:26:50.099 this election cycle. according to Tech Influence Watch's estimates. Meanwhile, 2:26:50.160 --> 2:26:53.140 industry-focused PAC spent nearly $ 250 million on the federal elections, 2:26:53.180 --> 2:26:57.840 including primaries. And just the vast majority of that has 2:26:57.879 --> 2:27:02.869 been completely disastrous. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown won his Senate 2:27:02.890 --> 2:27:06.030 seat against John Husted, even though the crypto industry put 2:27:06.150 --> 2:27:10.209 a bunch of money, like $ 64 million into supporting Husted. 2:27:10.209 --> 2:27:15.690 $ 64 million into one campaign by the crypto industry. 2:27:15.720 --> 2:27:18.920 All my apes gone. Yeah. Oh, and that's not all. 2:27:19.220 --> 2:27:23.620 Elon Musk's backed Senate leadership fund spent another $ 95. 6 million 2:27:23.740 --> 2:27:25.600 on the race trying to beat Brown. 2:27:25.840 --> 2:27:27.480 Oh, that's good. Oh, that's good. 2:27:27.500 --> 2:27:27.740 Yeah. 2:27:28.240 --> 2:27:31.080 And then Musk's America pack spent almost 10 million. Like 2:27:31.120 --> 2:27:35.050 they lot through so much money into beating Sherrod Brown. 2:27:35.110 --> 2:27:38.630 It just did fucking nothing. It's so funny. 2:27:39.550 --> 2:27:39.890 They also. 2:27:39.970 --> 2:27:43.029 Put there was like the the AI focused building the 2:27:43.070 --> 2:27:46.770 future in America mission pack put almost five million dollars 2:27:46.820 --> 2:27:49.290 into supporting Darlene Graham's campaign. 2:27:51.820 --> 2:27:54.560 Good good bet guys good bet guys that makes sense 2:27:54.580 --> 2:27:57.060 because out of out of all these races that I 2:27:57.100 --> 2:27:59.990 get I was going through last night both Sherrod Brown 2:28:00.090 --> 2:28:03.150 and Annie Andrews had the strongest anti-AI stuff, with the 2:28:03.170 --> 2:28:08.500 exception of Al Sayed, who's had very strong AI policies. Yeah. 2:28:08.640 --> 2:28:10.430 And they did have some successes, but it was mostly 2:28:10.640 --> 2:28:14.200 in not really competitive races. The one that's kind of 2:28:14.260 --> 2:28:18.540 meaningful is they did the Defend American Jobs PAC, which 2:28:18.660 --> 2:28:23.780 was an AI industry-backed one, put like $ 14 million almost 2:28:23.860 --> 2:28:27.000 into Senator Pete Ricketts' campaign in Nebraska, and he did win. 2:28:27.930 --> 2:28:31.590 That is something I did want to mention. Yes, in Nebraska, 2:28:31.670 --> 2:28:34.330 Dan Osborne was running as an independent on like a 2:28:34.370 --> 2:28:38.480 working class labor platform. And this was very competitive in 2:28:38.500 --> 2:28:42.900 the polls. But Ricketts ended up really, really pulling ahead 2:28:42.940 --> 2:28:47.720 at the end. And so this Senate seat stayed Republican. 2:28:48.220 --> 2:28:49.910 Besides Angie Nixon, this is kind of one of the 2:28:49.930 --> 2:28:53.150 big kind of losses for the night, you could say. 2:28:53.709 --> 2:28:55.970 Or at least one of the examples of Republicans being 2:28:55.990 --> 2:28:56.770 able to hold on to power. 2:28:57.209 --> 2:28:57.369 Yes. 2:28:58.540 --> 2:29:00.320 Yeah, let's talk about California briefly, right? 2:29:00.400 --> 2:29:03.689 So I guess the big news out of California is 2:29:03.750 --> 2:29:05.970 it's not looking good for Prop 40. 2:29:05.970 --> 2:29:07.690 California overall, disappointing. 2:29:08.110 --> 2:29:10.510 And we'll get into this later, but California is what 2:29:10.550 --> 2:29:13.670 happens when the Democrats feel safe. And what we saw 2:29:13.740 --> 2:29:16.120 here is there are a lot of votes still to 2:29:16.160 --> 2:29:18.440 be counted in California. I should probably lead with that, right? 2:29:18.879 --> 2:29:23.970 Right now, Prop 40 was a one-time 5% tax on 2:29:24.070 --> 2:29:29.480 individuals or trusts that had assets over $ 1 billion. There 2:29:29.700 --> 2:29:36.360 are less than 300 billionaires in California. Currently, no, it's 2:29:36.440 --> 2:29:37.620 leading with 55.6% of the vote. 2:29:37.680 --> 2:29:38.320 According to the AP, 44.4%. 2:29:38.320 --> 2:29:38.500 Yes. 2:29:38.540 --> 2:29:38.820 Bummer. 2:29:43.940 --> 2:29:47.920 California's ballot had a number of props that sought to 2:29:47.980 --> 2:29:52.570 directly cancel or invalidate Prop 40, like suggesting that the 2:29:52.610 --> 2:29:57.430 wealthy were afraid, right? Looking by county, I was looking 2:29:57.470 --> 2:30:00.990 at a county breakdown of Prop 40. It succeeded in 2:30:01.150 --> 2:30:05.860 LA County. Otherwise, there are very few, it succeeded in 2:30:05.900 --> 2:30:11.940 like Alameda County and like Mendocino County, Yolo County, Monterey, 2:30:11.980 --> 2:30:14.660 like less big urban counties. For instance, it did not 2:30:14.720 --> 2:30:18.080 succeed at this point in San Diego County. There was 2:30:18.120 --> 2:30:21.750 obviously a lot of spending against Prop 40. Gavin Newsom 2:30:21.810 --> 2:30:27.380 has also been opposed to it. California continues to be 2:30:27.420 --> 2:30:30.220 a disappointment in every aspect. 2:30:30.540 --> 2:30:32.140 It's very corporate Dems here. 2:30:32.180 --> 2:30:36.390 We didn't really see at a statewide level, that swing 2:30:36.450 --> 2:30:40.379 towards more progressive Democrats that we have seen in other places. 2:30:41.000 --> 2:30:46.220 In terms of local races, Marnie Van Wilpert beat Jim Desmond, 2:30:46.860 --> 2:30:50.340 which Desmond was taking over Daryl Issa's seat. Issa has 2:30:50.390 --> 2:30:54.350 been a pretty hard caller. He's not a California Republican. Well, 2:30:54.370 --> 2:30:57.670 he is obviously a Republican for California, but he's a Trumper. 2:30:58.280 --> 2:31:00.629 For the most part, Duncan Hunter had previously held a 2:31:00.670 --> 2:31:04.090 version of that. It's been redrawn, right? California redrew a 2:31:04.129 --> 2:31:07.720 number of districts. But, like, Duncan Hunter, people will remember, A, 2:31:08.430 --> 2:31:11.920 for being one of the more far-right members of Congress, B, 2:31:11.950 --> 2:31:14.379 for buying flights for his bunny rabbit and spending campaign 2:31:14.420 --> 2:31:17.580 funds on Steam games, among other things. 2:31:18.340 --> 2:31:18.820 Respect. 2:31:19.200 --> 2:31:25.779 Most useful Republican campaign expenditure. Sorry. I had to say. 2:31:25.820 --> 2:31:26.459 Yeah, right. 2:31:26.620 --> 2:31:27.060 You know what? 2:31:27.640 --> 2:31:29.900 If they took that money and they spent it all 2:31:30.000 --> 2:31:33.980 on Steam games, I wouldn't complain. You know, they're a 2:31:34.000 --> 2:31:36.830 worse thing for them to spend their money on. Generally, 2:31:37.310 --> 2:31:42.570 California has seen its characteristic like highly democratic, right? I 2:31:42.610 --> 2:31:46.689 think there were, I'm seeing four house districts that returned Republicans, 2:31:47.370 --> 2:31:51.830 the rest Democrats, right? California lines were redrawn. And so 2:31:51.879 --> 2:31:56.080 some of these Republicans have pretty strong... It's not like 2:31:56.120 --> 2:31:59.240 a one-for-one comparison, right? But we can look at how 2:31:59.280 --> 2:32:03.860 that area would have voted before, but we see strong... Germany, 2:32:03.879 --> 2:32:06.720 strong results for Republicans where they've won, but everywhere else, 2:32:07.160 --> 2:32:09.459 big wins for Democrats. I did want to mention in 2:32:09.520 --> 2:32:13.420 San Diego news that yesterday, a little election day treat 2:32:13.780 --> 2:32:17.670 for us San Diegans. The first process of recalling a 2:32:17.709 --> 2:32:21.050 mayor in California is to publish your intent to serve 2:32:21.070 --> 2:32:24.459 a recall notice and a group published intent to serve 2:32:24.480 --> 2:32:28.000 a recall notice for Todd Gloria. Of course, Todd supporters 2:32:28.100 --> 2:32:31.039 in the Republican Party have immediately closed ranks behind that guy. 2:32:31.640 --> 2:32:34.990 But for those who are not familiar, Todd Gloria, San 2:32:35.000 --> 2:32:38.449 Diego's mayor, Another example of what happens in California, where 2:32:38.470 --> 2:32:41.330 you get people running on supposedly progressive values and then 2:32:41.350 --> 2:32:45.210 turning out to be massive grifters, liars and chuds. So 2:32:45.270 --> 2:32:51.020 the group cited Gloria's failure to address our increasing crisis 2:32:51.600 --> 2:32:53.619 of people living on the street and not having access 2:32:53.640 --> 2:32:59.140 to services and his like persistent real estate grift. It'll 2:32:59.160 --> 2:33:01.840 be really interesting. I think Gloria, I know this can 2:33:01.860 --> 2:33:03.570 seem like a small local thing at a time when 2:33:03.590 --> 2:33:07.449 it's been a massive swing in national politics. Gloria, at 2:33:07.470 --> 2:33:13.320 least for me, really represents the pro-genocide corporate Democrats who 2:33:14.000 --> 2:33:20.400 have failed in 2024 specifically to inspire people to turn 2:33:20.459 --> 2:33:22.780 out to vote for them because they seem so out 2:33:22.800 --> 2:33:25.200 of touch, because they didn't offer solutions to problems that 2:33:25.230 --> 2:33:27.630 people had. We spoke about this on EDA a couple 2:33:27.650 --> 2:33:30.789 of weeks ago, but Gloria is probably Flock Camera's strongest 2:33:30.830 --> 2:33:34.610 defender of He has absolutely refused to concede on that. 2:33:35.010 --> 2:33:38.450 When it comes to carceral, out-of-touch liberalism, I see him 2:33:38.530 --> 2:33:42.510 as a totem of that. Although he will term out 2:33:42.550 --> 2:33:45.270 at the end of this term, although this recall will 2:33:45.290 --> 2:33:48.270 be expensive, I think it sends a really important notice 2:33:48.290 --> 2:33:51.790 to the Democratic Party that this kind of aloof, out-of-touch, 2:33:52.410 --> 2:33:54.900 giving all our money to the cops liberalism is not 2:33:54.980 --> 2:33:57.520 what people want in 2028. I do think there's a 2:33:57.580 --> 2:34:01.480 real risk of Democrats like falling back into well-worn patterns 2:34:01.520 --> 2:34:04.380 of doing that shit. So he has to be served 2:34:04.420 --> 2:34:06.120 the recall notice by the 8th, then he has a 2:34:06.150 --> 2:34:09.350 chance to respond. It won't be until like the third 2:34:09.370 --> 2:34:12.130 or fourth week of this month that people will actually 2:34:12.170 --> 2:34:16.150 begin gathering signatures. And it would have to be 15% 2:34:16.150 --> 2:34:18.650 of the electorate from the last election. I'm not sure 2:34:18.670 --> 2:34:20.789 if that's the last election when they served the notice 2:34:20.870 --> 2:34:23.550 or the last election, like at the time that they 2:34:23.590 --> 2:34:25.629 published it. I'm wondering if that's why they published it 2:34:25.650 --> 2:34:28.430 on election day, because the turnout was relatively high for 2:34:28.450 --> 2:34:30.880 a midterm election, right? to get a lower number, but 2:34:30.920 --> 2:34:36.189 it will be around 120,000, 130,000 voters that they would 2:34:36.230 --> 2:34:38.869 need to sign that signature to trigger a recall. I 2:34:38.890 --> 2:34:40.890 believe we're still working out if it will be recall 2:34:40.950 --> 2:34:44.150 then election or if it would be recall and election. 2:34:44.170 --> 2:34:48.090 You see what I mean? I'll keep updated on that. Otherwise, 2:34:48.110 --> 2:34:52.330 a fairly predictable and disappointing result in California. We're still 2:34:52.450 --> 2:34:56.840 waiting on On LA mare, it's very close right now. 2:34:57.520 --> 2:34:59.570 The last I saw it was like 51 to 49. 2:34:59.570 --> 2:35:02.150 I don't know if anyone's been looking at it like 2:35:02.209 --> 2:35:03.310 while we've been recording. 2:35:04.010 --> 2:35:08.990 Yeah, it's the same. There's about like a 17,000 vote 2:35:09.110 --> 2:35:13.220 difference with still almost half a million votes to come in. 2:35:13.580 --> 2:35:13.840 Right. 2:35:14.280 --> 2:35:18.199 That's ramen leading bass, which would be a major upset 2:35:18.300 --> 2:35:20.199 for the corporate dem contingent. 2:35:20.220 --> 2:35:21.180 Wait, did you say ramen is leading? 2:35:21.200 --> 2:35:21.340 Yeah. 2:35:22.170 --> 2:35:23.570 Yes, Rahman is leading. Correct. 2:35:23.590 --> 2:35:24.170 Oh, wow. 2:35:24.510 --> 2:35:25.609 By 17,000 votes. 2:35:26.590 --> 2:35:26.890 Yeah. 2:35:27.430 --> 2:35:29.230 Yes, yeah, yeah. It looked a lot better for Bass 2:35:29.250 --> 2:35:32.610 when we went to bed last night. Yeah, I didn't check. Okay, 2:35:32.709 --> 2:35:36.490 that's good. So, yeah, that will be a big win 2:35:36.690 --> 2:35:37.910 for the LA DSA. 2:35:38.170 --> 2:35:41.640 Hopefully we'll know by Thanksgiving, California. 2:35:44.440 --> 2:35:46.099 We'll see. 2:35:47.660 --> 2:35:52.240 Yeah, but it will be Rahman winning LA... would be 2:35:52.280 --> 2:35:56.300 a really interesting, like we've got Mandami in New York, right? 2:35:56.360 --> 2:35:59.470 Like seeing the two, I think the two most popular 2:35:59.490 --> 2:36:03.050 cities in the US, I would imagine, going both to 2:36:03.070 --> 2:36:05.869 DSA mares, I think would set a really interesting trajectory 2:36:05.890 --> 2:36:06.710 going into 2028. 2:36:06.709 --> 2:36:06.910 Yeah. 2:36:07.470 --> 2:36:10.650 I can bring some on the ground reporting too. I 2:36:10.690 --> 2:36:13.959 stopped by the DSA thing in Portland last night and 2:36:15.120 --> 2:36:19.150 there's some speculation about them trying to run Mitch for mayor, 2:36:19.470 --> 2:36:22.610 Mitch Green for mayor, which is, who knows if that's 2:36:22.670 --> 2:36:23.800 even a good idea at all. 2:36:24.780 --> 2:36:28.160 No, I think similarly in San Diego, who will we 2:36:28.180 --> 2:36:33.920 get if they recall Todd Gloria? This DSA local politics 2:36:34.400 --> 2:36:36.820 running on economic issues and local issues has been a 2:36:37.379 --> 2:36:38.380 positive pathway for them. 2:36:38.920 --> 2:36:41.240 This is something we'll talk a lot about probably these 2:36:41.280 --> 2:36:45.060 next few weeks, is what the left should do or 2:36:45.100 --> 2:36:48.879 what the left is doing. Now that Democrats have this majority, 2:36:49.400 --> 2:36:53.540 how can people ensure that Democrats will actually do things 2:36:53.560 --> 2:36:56.340 that are useful once they have this majority? This will 2:36:56.360 --> 2:36:59.600 be kind of an ongoing discussion these next few months 2:36:59.800 --> 2:37:01.039 and years, frankly. 2:37:01.879 --> 2:37:04.439 I mean, the immediate thing that needs to happen, and 2:37:04.480 --> 2:37:07.480 we've already had a couple of newly elected House members 2:37:08.200 --> 2:37:11.090 make comments along the lines of like, lawyer up to 2:37:11.190 --> 2:37:14.570 members of the Trump administration. And that's what I want 2:37:14.590 --> 2:37:18.160 to see immediately is investigations, right? I want to see investigations. 2:37:18.260 --> 2:37:21.380 I want to see attempts at impeaching like figures, even 2:37:21.420 --> 2:37:23.860 if they don't go after Trump himself. I want to 2:37:23.900 --> 2:37:29.949 see like a dogged and vicious attempt to enact consequences. 2:37:30.430 --> 2:37:34.830 for like Doge, for Pete Hegseth, for people in the DOJ, 2:37:34.890 --> 2:37:38.640 for ICE, like whatever they can do. And they'll be limited, obviously, 2:37:38.670 --> 2:37:40.240 while Trump is president. But I want to see that 2:37:40.280 --> 2:37:43.160 shit starting now. Like they need to be striking back. 2:37:43.640 --> 2:37:43.900 Yeah. 2:37:44.340 --> 2:37:46.660 One more on California before I forget. Prop 3 is 2:37:46.680 --> 2:37:50.690 looking good. Prop 3 would extend a tax. The tax 2:37:50.709 --> 2:37:53.410 was enacted in 2012, but it was set to expire 2:37:53.570 --> 2:37:56.629 in 2031. And that is, it has a higher income 2:37:56.690 --> 2:38:03.269 tax for top earners. So it's 10.3% over 360 grand, 12.3% 2:38:03.270 --> 2:38:05.800 over 721 grand individual income. 2:38:06.400 --> 2:38:07.340 So at least we kept that. 2:38:07.680 --> 2:38:11.439 A lot of that is ring fence for public schools 2:38:11.480 --> 2:38:13.339 with a little bit of it going to community colleges. 2:38:13.360 --> 2:38:13.860 Nice. 2:38:14.560 --> 2:38:17.930 So that's a good one. We'll probably discuss like voter 2:38:17.990 --> 2:38:22.010 trends more also in these next few weeks. But I mean, TLDR, 2:38:22.690 --> 2:38:26.230 the whole country shifted towards the Democrats by like 15 2:38:26.230 --> 2:38:28.390 to 30 points, depending on the district. 2:38:28.770 --> 2:38:29.090 Yes. 2:38:29.709 --> 2:38:31.490 And again, I'm sure we'll talk more, but like young 2:38:31.590 --> 2:38:33.949 people seem to, or young men seem to have shifted 2:38:33.950 --> 2:38:37.050 28 points away from Republicans towards Democrats. 2:38:37.370 --> 2:38:40.300 Which is crazy, right? Men 18 to 29 shift 38 points. Jesus. Jesus. 2:38:40.320 --> 2:38:40.420 God. 2:38:40.430 --> 2:38:40.770 Yeah. Yeah. 2:38:46.550 --> 2:38:49.820 And the numbers weren't even that insane last night, but 2:38:49.840 --> 2:38:53.140 that came up on Steve Bannon's radio show or podcast 2:38:53.160 --> 2:38:55.840 when he was doing his election night coverage. And someone 2:38:55.860 --> 2:38:59.400 pointed out to him, actually, a majority of young men 2:38:59.780 --> 2:39:03.369 are voting for the Democrats right now. We've lost them. 2:39:03.490 --> 2:39:06.129 And Bannon said, that can't be right. Those numbers have 2:39:06.150 --> 2:39:08.810 to be wrong. Because he was so convinced that that 2:39:08.890 --> 2:39:12.429 was a permanent majority that they'd gained in 2024, that 2:39:12.470 --> 2:39:13.930 they had captured young men. 2:39:13.950 --> 2:39:14.390 Yeah. 2:39:15.080 --> 2:39:17.119 And that's what all their messaging has been. That's all 2:39:17.140 --> 2:39:20.980 of their fucking based Chungus memes on Twitter. Their whole 2:39:21.040 --> 2:39:24.680 comms strategy is like... Yeah, yeah. 2:39:24.760 --> 2:39:28.480 I can't overemphasize a huge number of the most influential 2:39:28.660 --> 2:39:32.709 thought leaders on the conservative right on Twitter convinced themselves 2:39:32.730 --> 2:39:35.670 that a mix of memes about a gender-bent Draco Malfoy 2:39:36.410 --> 2:39:41.360 and fucking Anakin Skywalker had handed them the election. they 2:39:41.400 --> 2:39:43.670 walk themselves into that just in the same way that 2:39:43.690 --> 2:39:46.629 they convince themselves that like the trans stuff Or like 2:39:46.670 --> 2:39:49.870 Harambe was how they won in 2016. And like the 2:39:49.910 --> 2:39:52.250 degree to which they keep convincing. And in 2024, they 2:39:52.290 --> 2:39:54.590 were like, oh, it was the anti-trans messaging that like 2:39:54.690 --> 2:39:56.490 won it for us. The degree to which they convinced 2:39:56.530 --> 2:39:59.900 themselves that whatever this little bubble in Twitter is talking 2:39:59.930 --> 2:40:01.770 about is what the nation gives a shit about. 2:40:01.830 --> 2:40:02.010 Yeah. 2:40:02.250 --> 2:40:04.660 Has really bit them in the ass this time. 2:40:05.000 --> 2:40:05.240 Right. 2:40:05.320 --> 2:40:08.379 Like they were able to kind of ignore reality because 2:40:08.420 --> 2:40:12.310 in general, things were so bad for any incumbent in 2024. 2:40:12.300 --> 2:40:12.439 Yeah. 2:40:13.650 --> 2:40:15.670 But there's none of that shielding left. 2:40:15.810 --> 2:40:16.029 Right. 2:40:16.070 --> 2:40:18.830 They're left purely with the consequences of their actions and 2:40:18.850 --> 2:40:22.010 the fact that they have convinced themselves of a fantasy 2:40:22.310 --> 2:40:25.280 that like weirdos on Twitter who spend all of their 2:40:25.320 --> 2:40:31.040 time like AI generating fucking images of characters from 25 2:40:31.040 --> 2:40:34.060 year old movies is like the normal American voter. Like 2:40:34.500 --> 2:40:37.610 that's that's what they did. That's part of why they lost. 2:40:37.629 --> 2:40:42.370 Yeah, it's pretty bleak. Two years of prefrontal cortex development 2:40:42.390 --> 2:40:45.370 will go a long way for my fellow young white lads, 2:40:45.450 --> 2:40:45.830 I guess. 2:40:46.190 --> 2:40:49.320 Hopefully. Jesus. 2:40:51.379 --> 2:40:55.039 I do want to point out that the NBC exit 2:40:55.060 --> 2:40:57.260 polls are pretty fascinating. 2:40:57.280 --> 2:40:57.350 Yep. 2:40:58.970 --> 2:41:04.090 And if you look at young voters, 18 to 29... 2:41:05.070 --> 2:41:08.790 One third of them said, yes, they consider themselves a 2:41:08.830 --> 2:41:14.550 democratic socialist. And 99% of those people said they were Democrats. 2:41:14.629 --> 2:41:19.529 And only 9% said they were MAGA. So who would 2:41:19.550 --> 2:41:25.300 have predicted that Anakin posting and Malfoy posting would be 2:41:25.700 --> 2:41:27.060 in parallel. 2:41:26.580 --> 2:41:28.080 With this massive campaign? 2:41:28.580 --> 2:41:31.459 Socialist swing. I mean, you know, not to be too 2:41:31.520 --> 2:41:35.060 vulgar about it, but basically every older person that gets 2:41:35.220 --> 2:41:40.090 out of the voting base is losing. It's like two 2:41:40.150 --> 2:41:43.650 thirds less of a vote for a socialist. And then 2:41:43.670 --> 2:41:46.900 there's like, you know, many more people who are aging 2:41:47.060 --> 2:41:51.120 in who are leaning socialist. So it is dramatically backfired. 2:41:51.160 --> 2:41:53.960 I mean, it is the entire opposite of what these 2:41:53.980 --> 2:41:57.369 people wanted is truly their, their worst fears coming to pass, 2:41:57.770 --> 2:41:59.570 which is just delightful to watch. 2:42:00.250 --> 2:42:05.090 No, it's 17% of the electorate identified as socialists. Yeah. 2:42:05.290 --> 2:42:09.050 It's wild. It's, it's, it's pretty shocking. And I mean, 2:42:09.090 --> 2:42:11.480 we would be remiss to mention like the massive swings 2:42:11.580 --> 2:42:14.880 in Hispanic voters, votes towards the Democrats that played a 2:42:14.900 --> 2:42:19.279 big part in Florida, getting Angie Nixon closer and pushing 2:42:19.340 --> 2:42:23.260 Tallarico way over the edge in Texas. Based on everything 2:42:23.320 --> 2:42:25.180 ICE has been doing the past few years, this was 2:42:25.360 --> 2:42:29.650 to be expected, but the extent to which a 28-point swing, really, 2:42:30.190 --> 2:42:33.750 really large. Similarly, I mentioned at the top of the 2:42:33.770 --> 2:42:36.930 episode how Republicans were not able to gain any seats 2:42:37.050 --> 2:42:40.990 from their redistricting measures. And if anything, all the redistricting 2:42:41.030 --> 2:42:45.480 did was... enrage people. It really pissed people off. And 2:42:45.520 --> 2:42:50.680 generate massive, massive black voter turnout. Yeah. Because Republicans were 2:42:50.700 --> 2:42:53.880 trying to take away their ability to vote, to have 2:42:53.940 --> 2:42:57.260 their votes matter. Yeah. And that caused a huge black 2:42:57.300 --> 2:43:00.720 turnout and a big swing also towards Democrats. The other 2:43:00.740 --> 2:43:02.820 thing it did, and this is something that's really funny, 2:43:02.840 --> 2:43:08.419 is because Republicans were trying to make more Trump districts 2:43:08.940 --> 2:43:13.750 what they ended up doing is diluting their own mega 2:43:13.850 --> 2:43:18.609 Trump voters across multiple districts, which then in North Carolina, 2:43:18.910 --> 2:43:22.230 because of the big turnout for, for, for Democrats, me, 2:43:22.270 --> 2:43:25.830 Democrats take districts that were previously like Republican strongholds. So 2:43:25.850 --> 2:43:28.940 it was a complete backfiring of redistricting. They, they diluted 2:43:28.959 --> 2:43:33.480 their own support by trying to dilute black people's ability 2:43:33.520 --> 2:43:35.119 to have their votes matter. 2:43:35.940 --> 2:43:39.040 No, the, the, The tighter they clenched their grip, the 2:43:39.060 --> 2:43:42.050 more systems slipped through their fingers, right? 2:43:42.150 --> 2:43:45.290 It's all Star Wars, man. The whole election's Star Wars. 2:43:45.730 --> 2:43:46.490 Yep, yep. 2:43:46.670 --> 2:43:50.449 They convinced themselves, not just that, yeah, this has been 2:43:50.470 --> 2:43:54.800 a permanent realignment, and now we can do anything. And 2:43:54.840 --> 2:43:56.800 we can laugh about it. We can laugh about how 2:43:56.879 --> 2:43:59.410 cruel we're being. We can laugh about the people we're killing. 2:43:59.430 --> 2:44:01.610 We can laugh about the programs we're cutting, the lives 2:44:01.629 --> 2:44:05.670 we're destroying. And no one will ever make us stand 2:44:05.750 --> 2:44:07.570 for it, like accountable for it. They thought they could 2:44:07.590 --> 2:44:09.390 do all this bullshit the past two years and just 2:44:09.410 --> 2:44:11.550 get away with it. That they would not face consequences 2:44:11.610 --> 2:44:11.949 for it. 2:44:12.420 --> 2:44:14.340 Because they thought people loved it. Yeah, they thought they 2:44:14.360 --> 2:44:15.160 were locked in forever. 2:44:15.480 --> 2:44:18.680 Because they thought their entire electorate was like 15% of 2:44:18.700 --> 2:44:21.330 the Republican Party who were the craziest people in the world, right? 2:44:22.129 --> 2:44:24.730 Yeah, and to an extent they're still fucking doing it. 2:44:24.750 --> 2:44:27.970 I'm not sure if you saw that Mark Wayne Mullen 2:44:28.910 --> 2:44:31.609 went on Twitter today to post deportations will continue. 2:44:31.709 --> 2:44:33.140 Yeah, I'm sure they will. 2:44:33.160 --> 2:44:38.060 Yeah, they will, right? They will go wild with the 2:44:38.100 --> 2:44:40.560 executive branch shit that they think they can get away with. 2:44:40.879 --> 2:44:42.119 Yeah. Because why not? 2:44:42.200 --> 2:44:42.400 Yeah. 2:44:42.420 --> 2:44:44.500 They're going to go as hard as they think they 2:44:44.540 --> 2:44:47.150 can get away with. The only way it might stop 2:44:47.200 --> 2:44:50.670 and mitigate that is depending on like how afraid they 2:44:50.730 --> 2:44:53.050 are of being prosecuted after this, which I am seeing 2:44:53.070 --> 2:44:54.370 a lot of talk about, quite frankly. 2:44:54.390 --> 2:44:54.470 Yeah. 2:44:55.170 --> 2:44:59.000 And that might do some that might actually mitigate how 2:44:59.170 --> 2:45:00.400 what they're willing to do. 2:45:00.740 --> 2:45:00.980 Right. 2:45:01.080 --> 2:45:02.080 Like, I don't know. 2:45:02.120 --> 2:45:03.420 One of the things that's been interesting to me is 2:45:03.440 --> 2:45:05.580 that despite all of the talk ahead of this is like, oh, 2:45:05.620 --> 2:45:07.180 is Trump going to are they going to recognize the 2:45:07.220 --> 2:45:09.140 results of the election? You know, are they going to 2:45:09.160 --> 2:45:11.660 be sending troops out to stop this if it goes 2:45:11.700 --> 2:45:14.760 against them? That talk dropped on the right when it 2:45:14.800 --> 2:45:17.260 became clear how big a loss this was. 2:45:17.300 --> 2:45:18.040 Within hours. 2:45:18.340 --> 2:45:21.080 Yeah. I feel like a bit of a dumbass with 2:45:21.120 --> 2:45:25.150 my episode yesterday because it was. 2:45:25.070 --> 2:45:25.890 Like, oh, there's going to be. 2:45:26.310 --> 2:45:29.630 I'm sure they'll still come after various things, but it's like, oh, wow. 2:45:29.670 --> 2:45:32.629 It really was just like an absolute blue nami. 2:45:32.670 --> 2:45:33.490 Too big to rip. 2:45:33.530 --> 2:45:33.910 Yeah. 2:45:33.970 --> 2:45:34.250 Yeah. 2:45:34.450 --> 2:45:34.610 Yeah. 2:45:35.030 --> 2:45:37.070 I mean, just to end on that note, we were 2:45:37.110 --> 2:45:39.570 thinking here in Texas that one of the better outcomes 2:45:39.610 --> 2:45:44.090 might actually be Greg Abbott winning and, you know, Tallarico winning, 2:45:44.129 --> 2:45:47.430 because if it's a split vote, they can't cry wolf 2:45:48.410 --> 2:45:50.769 with the same effect. But I mean, we ended up 2:45:50.870 --> 2:45:54.310 getting the same effect, but just through a different mechanism, 2:45:54.330 --> 2:45:55.920 which is amazing. 2:45:56.030 --> 2:45:57.480 And they all lost. 2:45:57.930 --> 2:46:01.340 If if all politics works. has to be Star Wars. 2:46:01.800 --> 2:46:03.800 I want to see a lot more Glup Shiddos. I 2:46:03.820 --> 2:46:06.160 don't want to see fascist Anakin. I want to know 2:46:06.300 --> 2:46:09.640 who is the Glup Shiddo, the new Glup Shiddo of this. 2:46:09.800 --> 2:46:11.779 It's a lot, you know, a lot of Glup Shiddos 2:46:11.840 --> 2:46:14.420 came out of the woodwork to win it for, for 2:46:14.440 --> 2:46:15.720 the Democrats last night. 2:46:16.830 --> 2:46:20.270 Oops, all Glup Shiddos. Before we go, I do want 2:46:20.290 --> 2:46:26.129 to mention, they're like, just we Glup Shiddos, sorry. You 2:46:26.170 --> 2:46:27.130 some too Glup Shiddo. 2:46:27.530 --> 2:46:27.710 Yeah. 2:46:27.910 --> 2:46:30.650 Um, really good night for indigenous candidates, right? 2:46:30.870 --> 2:46:31.110 Yeah. 2:46:31.420 --> 2:46:35.780 Deb Harland, governor in New Mexico. Nez is looking pretty good. 2:46:35.800 --> 2:46:38.760 Like former chairman of the Navajo nation. It remains to 2:46:38.800 --> 2:46:43.700 be seen in Arizona, right? Peggy, uh, Flanagan in Minnesota. 2:46:43.840 --> 2:46:46.760 Like I was talking to some friends, uh, some, some 2:46:46.810 --> 2:46:52.050 Yaki friends yesterday about like incredible turnout in indigenous communities, 2:46:52.209 --> 2:46:54.490 like at least where they were. Uh, and from what 2:46:54.530 --> 2:46:58.590 I've heard, it was, it was pretty high everywhere. And, uh, Yeah, 2:46:58.640 --> 2:47:02.279 that's good to see. Like Trump has been fucking extensively 2:47:02.459 --> 2:47:04.140 with indigenous people, their. 2:47:04.040 --> 2:47:05.000 Rights and their land. 2:47:06.180 --> 2:47:09.060 And it's good to see them showing up and it's 2:47:09.080 --> 2:47:11.240 good to see indigenous candidates being returned like at a 2:47:11.260 --> 2:47:11.750 state level. 2:47:12.230 --> 2:47:14.050 We'll talk more about some of this sort of stuff 2:47:14.070 --> 2:47:16.510 where the Democrats will do next, that kind of thing 2:47:16.810 --> 2:47:19.970 in tomorrow's edition of Executive Disorder, as well as something. 2:47:20.360 --> 2:47:24.369 non-election-related stories to help get a general sense of what's 2:47:24.390 --> 2:47:27.800 going on in the world. But before we close... Steven, 2:47:27.879 --> 2:47:30.200 where can people find your work, especially to keep up 2:47:30.320 --> 2:47:34.010 on the politics of Texas? And who sent those fucking mailers? 2:47:34.550 --> 2:47:36.270 God, we are going to get to the bottom of 2:47:36.310 --> 2:47:39.150 those mailers, even if it may not be as consequential. 2:47:39.310 --> 2:47:44.640 To Robert's point, the accountability must continue. We must get 2:47:44.670 --> 2:47:47.260 to the bottom of who is behind that so their 2:47:47.340 --> 2:47:50.060 feet can be held to the fire. You can find 2:47:50.200 --> 2:47:53.480 my reporting often at the Texas Observer. But if you 2:47:53.540 --> 2:47:56.910 just Google my Italian ass name, you can find my website. 2:47:57.530 --> 2:48:00.830 And all of my articles get consolidated there because I 2:48:00.850 --> 2:48:04.610 do write for a few different outlets. And, you know, 2:48:04.629 --> 2:48:07.090 I'm always excited to be on the show with you all. 2:48:07.110 --> 2:48:07.910 So thanks for having me. 2:48:08.790 --> 2:48:09.050 Yeah. 2:48:09.990 --> 2:48:11.590 Thank you for holding Texas down. 2:48:11.610 --> 2:48:15.690 How about you, Kevin? Where can people find your coverage 2:48:15.750 --> 2:48:19.670 of the places with pine trees and rain? Yeah, I'm 2:48:19.930 --> 2:48:22.900 on like all the social media channels at Kevin H. 2:48:22.950 --> 2:48:23.530 Foster. 2:48:23.670 --> 2:48:26.109 And then my sub stack is last week in hell. 2:48:27.020 --> 2:48:30.720 And this week, it's not the most fitting name because 2:48:30.780 --> 2:48:32.830 it seems like things have generally gone okay. 2:48:33.270 --> 2:48:37.429 This week in purgatory. Yeah, this week in purgatory. One 2:48:37.450 --> 2:48:39.709 level up, baby. One level up at a time. 2:48:39.730 --> 2:48:41.430 We're clawing our way out. 2:48:42.790 --> 2:48:45.180 That does it for us here at It Could Happen Here. 2:48:45.820 --> 2:48:48.100 We'll see you tomorrow for another episode of Executive Disorder. 2:48:49.080 --> 2:48:50.039 We reported the news. 2:48:52.160 --> 2:48:52.959 We reported the news. 2:49:04.890 --> 2:49:08.939 Welcome to It Could Happen Here, Executive Disorder, our weekly 2:49:08.980 --> 2:49:12.080 newscast covering what's happening in the White House, the crumbling world, 2:49:12.140 --> 2:49:15.270 and what this means for you. I'm Garrison Davis. Today 2:49:15.370 --> 2:49:20.230 I'm joined by Robert Evans and number one electoralist Mia Wong, 2:49:20.830 --> 2:49:24.320 who was so excited about the results that she couldn't 2:49:24.350 --> 2:49:27.600 even make it to our episode yesterday. She was too pumped. 2:49:27.640 --> 2:49:32.870 We couldn't contain her. up all night. Not even a joke. 2:49:32.910 --> 2:49:33.750 I actually was. 2:49:33.770 --> 2:49:36.330 Well, she was also she votes in 11 or 12 2:49:36.330 --> 2:49:38.970 states every election. You just can't stop her from voting. 2:49:39.290 --> 2:49:42.570 I'm from Illinois. I was raised on vote early, vote often. 2:49:47.410 --> 2:49:47.930 Good stuff. 2:49:48.750 --> 2:49:50.560 We do need to acknowledge that I think out of 2:49:50.600 --> 2:49:53.980 everyone's midterm predictions, Mia's was the most correct. 2:49:54.520 --> 2:49:57.910 Oh, I want to grandstand for five seconds, which is 2:49:57.970 --> 2:50:01.330 very funny that I am the least electoral person. And 2:50:01.790 --> 2:50:08.080 you can pull the tape in early 2025, like March 2025. 2:50:08.080 --> 2:50:12.620 I am pulling the election results from like rural Iowa 2:50:12.959 --> 2:50:16.160 and going the Democrats are going to win by 20. 2:50:16.160 --> 2:50:17.410 You can pull the tape on it. 2:50:17.990 --> 2:50:18.510 I was there. 2:50:18.610 --> 2:50:19.140 Please sit on me. 2:50:20.980 --> 2:50:22.250 See, I respect that. 2:50:22.330 --> 2:50:24.590 I didn't even have the courage to really make any predictions. 2:50:24.650 --> 2:50:26.870 After the last, like, three elections, I was like, I 2:50:26.910 --> 2:50:28.890 don't know, man. Maybe the polls are right. Who the 2:50:28.930 --> 2:50:30.810 fuck knows? 2:50:30.970 --> 2:50:34.580 My thing on that genuinely was that, like, I was 2:50:34.620 --> 2:50:37.580 doing the polls were cucked angle, which is that the polls, 2:50:37.620 --> 2:50:39.580 because the thing with the polls is the polls were 2:50:39.620 --> 2:50:43.280 all using the 2024 demographic stuff for, like, ages. 2:50:43.410 --> 2:50:44.990 And then they tried to modify it afterwards. 2:50:45.010 --> 2:50:49.240 But it's like, If you go outside, you can tell that, 2:50:49.540 --> 2:50:52.300 talk to any person in any state, you can be like, 2:50:52.340 --> 2:50:55.730 this is not 2024. Even by the time you're hitting 2:50:55.830 --> 2:50:59.170 early 2025, everything is just different. 2:50:59.570 --> 2:51:01.190 Oh, no. I mean, even out in the country, I 2:51:01.209 --> 2:51:03.470 spent a lot of time in rural Oregon, and the 2:51:03.510 --> 2:51:05.310 Trump signs have largely disappeared. 2:51:05.390 --> 2:51:07.590 Yeah. You've been seeing that a lot. A lot of 2:51:07.629 --> 2:51:10.210 reports from people who live out in the country noting 2:51:10.270 --> 2:51:13.490 that The Trump banners are no longer on the hay bales. 2:51:13.810 --> 2:51:14.109 Yeah. 2:51:14.750 --> 2:51:16.410 And I think we're going to be doing a full 2:51:16.450 --> 2:51:20.890 episode in like a couple of weeks on... how Trump 2:51:20.930 --> 2:51:23.830 sort of systemically went through and pissed off all of 2:51:23.890 --> 2:51:30.310 those people individually, because it's a truly like a masterwork 2:51:30.720 --> 2:51:33.039 in electioneering. The only person I've ever seen do it 2:51:33.060 --> 2:51:36.260 like this was former Chicago mayor Lori Lightfoot, who just 2:51:36.660 --> 2:51:39.660 went like row by row down every single one of 2:51:39.700 --> 2:51:44.590 her constituencies and pissed them all off individually. Oh, it's 2:51:44.650 --> 2:51:45.350 incredible stuff. 2:51:46.100 --> 2:51:49.000 This episode, we are covering the week of October 28th 2:51:49.200 --> 2:51:54.570 to November 5th. Yesterday, we covered the election results in 2:51:54.600 --> 2:51:58.330 a special edition of Executive Disorder. Today, we will be 2:51:58.390 --> 2:52:02.610 covering reactions to those results from the Democrats and the Republicans, 2:52:02.730 --> 2:52:06.250 as well as some other news stories. We'll start with 2:52:06.330 --> 2:52:09.360 a few small things at the top. Yeah. 2:52:09.890 --> 2:52:12.970 And I promise this is not entirely an election episode. 2:52:13.010 --> 2:52:15.459 If you stick around long enough, you will get a 2:52:15.680 --> 2:52:19.480 one million person wildcat general strike. So hang in there, 2:52:19.520 --> 2:52:23.020 people who are sick of elections. Help is coming. 2:52:24.860 --> 2:52:29.420 Last week, Mayor Mamdani quietly canceled New York City's own 2:52:29.560 --> 2:52:34.650 Cop City, a $ 225 million, quote, public safety academy that 2:52:34.690 --> 2:52:37.580 was slated to be built in Queens. It's something that 2:52:37.620 --> 2:52:40.570 Zoran talked about a few times during the mayoral primary, 2:52:40.650 --> 2:52:43.150 but has since then kind of receded into the background. 2:52:43.170 --> 2:52:46.410 In an interview before the launch of his campaign, Zoran 2:52:46.470 --> 2:52:49.349 told the outlet City & State, quote, we do not 2:52:49.450 --> 2:52:52.949 need to spend more than $ 200 million on a cop 2:52:52.990 --> 2:52:56.550 city training facility in Queens. Good for him. And last week, 2:52:56.850 --> 2:52:59.970 the mayor's office confirmed this plan is no longer going through. 2:52:59.990 --> 2:53:02.379 Look, I've watched the NYPD at work. 2:53:02.730 --> 2:53:03.330 A few times. 2:53:03.450 --> 2:53:05.470 And how much training do you need to teach guys 2:53:05.510 --> 2:53:07.650 to sit in a van playing Candy Crush on their 2:53:07.690 --> 2:53:11.050 phone until it's time to maybe go out and hit people? Like, 2:53:11.110 --> 2:53:12.530 how much training does that really take? 2:53:12.570 --> 2:53:14.670 It requires a lot of training to kettle people on 2:53:14.709 --> 2:53:16.410 the same bridge every single year. 2:53:16.890 --> 2:53:18.320 Yeah, yeah, yeah, you're right. 2:53:18.350 --> 2:53:21.939 Of course, of course. Do you need $ 200 million for that? 2:53:22.780 --> 2:53:26.720 If Mamdani's promises a few weeks ago would come to fruition... 2:53:26.879 --> 2:53:29.140 We should also be getting an update on the timeline 2:53:29.160 --> 2:53:32.769 of the SRG dismantling in the next few days to 2:53:32.790 --> 2:53:35.870 weeks as well. It has been a good week for 2:53:35.910 --> 2:53:39.310 Mamdani overall. On Wednesday, an appeals court ruled that Mamdani 2:53:39.330 --> 2:53:41.870 can go ahead with the pita tear tax on second 2:53:41.890 --> 2:53:45.810 homes worth millions of dollars after a Staten Island judge 2:53:46.890 --> 2:53:49.160 tried to halt the rollout a few months ago. So 2:53:50.180 --> 2:53:52.940 that will be going ahead. And in fact, when Mamdani 2:53:53.080 --> 2:53:56.400 was on CNN talking about the election results, Jake Tapper 2:53:56.420 --> 2:53:59.750 was made a snide remark about the New York Knicks, 2:54:00.430 --> 2:54:04.380 and Mamdani's rebuttal was bragging about him paying the PETA 2:54:04.400 --> 2:54:08.500 tier tax. So, fuck you, Jake Tapper. Good bit, good bit. 2:54:10.940 --> 2:54:14.580 Last Friday, dock workers held a one-day strike action across 2:54:14.580 --> 2:54:18.779 22 countries and more than 100 ports in protest against 2:54:18.959 --> 2:54:22.850 war and arms shipments. A coalition of unions released a 2:54:22.850 --> 2:54:26.269 statement beforehand, quote, Ports must not be used for the 2:54:26.330 --> 2:54:31.090 transport of weapons, ammunition, military equipment, and troops. Dock workers 2:54:31.150 --> 2:54:34.450 do not work for war. This action was originally called 2:54:34.470 --> 2:54:39.890 by the European Dock Workers Council, with unions in France, Italy, Greece, Spain, Turkey, 2:54:39.990 --> 2:54:40.650 and Morocco. 2:54:40.670 --> 2:54:43.400 This has been something that's been a very big issue 2:54:43.430 --> 2:54:46.320 for European dock workers for a long time. I mean, 2:54:46.360 --> 2:54:50.360 you can go back and look at like 2010, you 2:54:50.780 --> 2:54:53.040 can find dock workers doing strikes about this. This is 2:54:53.080 --> 2:54:56.320 something that Yeah, so this is a long-running concern of 2:54:56.379 --> 2:55:00.260 European dock workers, particularly in Italy, Greece as well, and 2:55:00.340 --> 2:55:03.400 obviously France. And it's good to see more of it. 2:55:04.280 --> 2:55:06.440 This is a nice little kind of warm-up action. This 2:55:06.470 --> 2:55:09.590 is just a one-day action. If this gets extended to 2:55:09.610 --> 2:55:14.270 a few days, it could really clog the gears. And 2:55:14.310 --> 2:55:17.660 so it's nice to see this happen, and hopefully more 2:55:17.690 --> 2:55:20.420 things like it will happen in the future with some 2:55:20.440 --> 2:55:24.560 more organizing. We will now turn to a special segment 2:55:24.600 --> 2:55:30.609 by James Stout. Take a listen. Hey, everyone. It's James. 2:55:31.070 --> 2:55:35.490 Tragically, I lost a tooth to some Skittles about a 2:55:35.510 --> 2:55:38.050 year ago. And the thing that was on top of 2:55:38.070 --> 2:55:40.050 my tooth has fallen out again. So while my friends 2:55:40.170 --> 2:55:42.900 are recording, I am having someone drill into my face. 2:55:42.920 --> 2:55:46.360 I'm paying half a month's wages for the privilege. So 2:55:46.400 --> 2:55:48.439 I can't join them. But I did want to update 2:55:48.459 --> 2:55:50.360 you on a couple of non-election things as well as 2:55:50.440 --> 2:55:52.220 one election thing. So let's start with the election thing. 2:55:52.879 --> 2:55:55.840 Last week, I said there were 53 counties in California. 2:55:55.860 --> 2:55:58.190 I just read the number that I had typed wrong. 2:55:58.230 --> 2:56:00.550 There were 58. Also, I wanted to talk a little 2:56:00.590 --> 2:56:03.690 bit more about California and specifically those. 2:56:03.350 --> 2:56:04.230 20,000 votes, right? 2:56:04.690 --> 2:56:09.420 The DOJ attempted to take their request to sequester ballots 2:56:09.459 --> 2:56:12.720 to the Supreme Court of the United States, which just 2:56:12.740 --> 2:56:15.420 like other courts did not cooperate, right? John Sauer, the 2:56:15.440 --> 2:56:19.279 Solicitor General, wrote, quote, Once California commingles the challenge ballots 2:56:19.320 --> 2:56:21.230 with lawful ones, there is no way to get the 2:56:21.260 --> 2:56:24.170 challenge ballots back. The only way to preserve the District 2:56:24.209 --> 2:56:26.450 Court's ability to grant relief to the United States to 2:56:26.530 --> 2:56:29.450 offer a full merit to proceeding, therefore, is to segregate 2:56:29.490 --> 2:56:33.029 the challenge ballots. That remedy would not cause undue hardship 2:56:33.050 --> 2:56:36.250 to California. The Supreme Court disagreed. They turned down the 2:56:36.290 --> 2:56:41.150 government's request with a very brief unsigned 9-0 order. I 2:56:41.170 --> 2:56:43.839 think this is just illustration, right, that the government threw 2:56:44.000 --> 2:56:46.879 everything it had at suppressing the vote in this election 2:56:46.920 --> 2:56:51.470 and did not succeed. Even on election day, ICE posted 2:56:51.570 --> 2:56:54.090 that HSI had arrested a Canadian man who they claimed 2:56:54.129 --> 2:56:57.690 had registered to vote. Again, this is an attempt at 2:56:57.750 --> 2:57:01.890 making people afraid or intimidated to vote that very obviously 2:57:01.930 --> 2:57:05.929 did not succeed anywhere in the United States in numbers 2:57:05.970 --> 2:57:10.840 large enough to influence the outcome of the election. moving 2:57:11.180 --> 2:57:13.820 on from the united states i wanted to talk briefly 2:57:13.840 --> 2:57:16.400 about iran the united states right before the election made 2:57:16.440 --> 2:57:19.270 what it called a defensive strike which trump then went 2:57:19.350 --> 2:57:25.150 on to say was against iranian air defenses evidently it's 2:57:25.190 --> 2:57:27.850 very hard to make a defensive strike against someone else's 2:57:28.209 --> 2:57:31.260 air defenses right Unclear if that was a different strike 2:57:31.300 --> 2:57:34.400 or not, but Trump said they watched Iran rebuild their 2:57:34.440 --> 2:57:36.900 air defences and then destroyed them, which is not a 2:57:37.200 --> 2:57:41.980 defensive action. Talking of Iranian air defences, Iran took down 2:57:42.500 --> 2:57:50.070 another MQ-9 Reaper drone. with what's called a 358. 358, 2:57:50.070 --> 2:57:53.570 I think we've talked about them on Executive Disorder before. 2:57:53.870 --> 2:57:56.650 They released a video in this case, but a 358 2:57:56.650 --> 2:58:03.160 is a loitering munition. It's like an anti-drone drone. It's 2:58:03.240 --> 2:58:07.960 not capable of taking down jets. I mean, it's capable 2:58:07.980 --> 2:58:09.440 of doing it, it's just very unlikely it will be 2:58:09.560 --> 2:58:12.359 able to, right? But it works very well for these drones. 2:58:12.810 --> 2:58:15.150 Iran has taken down a number of drones with these. 2:58:15.690 --> 2:58:19.269 They work in a similar way to the drones that 2:58:19.310 --> 2:58:23.369 the Kurdish freedom movement was using to shoot down Turkish 2:58:23.830 --> 2:58:27.390 Bayraktar and Akinchi drones. In fact, the SDF took out 2:58:27.650 --> 2:58:31.750 a US drone, presumably by accident, in Syria after the 2:58:31.790 --> 2:58:35.510 Assad regime collapsed. So not the first time these US 2:58:35.530 --> 2:58:39.269 drones have run into these kinds of loitering munitions. But 2:58:39.390 --> 2:58:43.310 it's indicative that the 358s are pretty cheap compared to 2:58:43.390 --> 2:58:45.810 more advanced air defense systems. And as I said, they're 2:58:45.830 --> 2:58:48.390 not the best solution for fast attack jets. 2:58:48.470 --> 2:58:50.010 But it is one of. 2:58:50.010 --> 2:58:55.110 These things that the Iranians have developed that have been 2:58:55.209 --> 2:58:56.879 very effective for the money. 2:58:57.110 --> 2:58:59.099 The other one being their Shaheed drones. 2:58:59.680 --> 2:59:01.779 And they have been able to take out a number 2:59:01.840 --> 2:59:05.320 of United States attack drones with these, in this case, 2:59:05.440 --> 2:59:08.480 the MQ-9 Reaper drone. that they say they shot down 2:59:08.540 --> 2:59:09.680 over the Strait of Hormuz. 2:59:10.400 --> 2:59:11.179 It's a little unclear. 2:59:11.200 --> 2:59:14.040 You can't see in the footage where they shot it down, 2:59:14.080 --> 2:59:17.120 but nonetheless, I think it's reportable. Staying on the topic 2:59:17.360 --> 2:59:24.350 of drones, the publication Intelligence Online is reporting that they 2:59:24.370 --> 2:59:27.810 have seen intelligence from a Myanmar armed resistance group that 2:59:27.850 --> 2:59:31.310 has identified four Russian drone operators deployed on a long-term 2:59:31.330 --> 2:59:34.629 basis with garrisons of the Myanmar armed forces in southern 2:59:34.730 --> 2:59:38.959 Shan state. This has been a thing for a while, right? 2:59:39.360 --> 2:59:45.050 There have been Russian drone ops, Russian trainers deployed with 2:59:45.070 --> 2:59:48.590 the Tatmadaw, along with the Tatmadaw using Russian technology for 2:59:48.629 --> 2:59:51.250 quite some time, right? But it's interesting that these guys 2:59:51.310 --> 2:59:54.119 are deployed long term and they seem to be rather 2:59:54.140 --> 2:59:58.010 than training, actually operating drones. If you remember the fall 2:59:58.030 --> 3:00:00.030 of the Assad regime, there were Russian drone ops there 3:00:00.070 --> 3:00:02.990 as well. Some of those guys had paid a bribe 3:00:03.310 --> 3:00:05.550 or had got this kind of posting that took them 3:00:05.590 --> 3:00:08.020 out of the meat grinder in Ukraine and they were 3:00:08.040 --> 3:00:12.340 doing these colonial wars for Russia, right? That's what this is. 3:00:12.360 --> 3:00:17.020 This is imperialism by another name. The Tatmadaw has benefited 3:00:17.230 --> 3:00:22.449 heavily from Chinese and Russian drone technology and drone tactics, right? 3:00:22.490 --> 3:00:26.020 They've been using drones much more effectively in the last, 3:00:26.040 --> 3:00:29.280 I guess, year or so than they previously had. And 3:00:29.379 --> 3:00:31.740 so it's not surprising to see. We also saw, like, 3:00:32.060 --> 3:00:36.560 sometimes you'll see guys with Wagner patches, like the, what 3:00:36.600 --> 3:00:39.800 is now Africa Corps, right? The Russian private military contractor thing. 3:00:40.459 --> 3:00:44.490 In that case, I'm pretty sure that at least in 3:00:44.620 --> 3:00:49.050 my experience, that's just them thinking that they're cool and 3:00:49.670 --> 3:00:52.170 In the same way that you will see PDF guys 3:00:52.209 --> 3:00:56.030 sometimes with like a United States flags on their plate carriers, 3:00:56.110 --> 3:00:58.070 because that is an aesthetic and a thing they look 3:00:58.150 --> 3:01:00.890 up to, right? The US special forces guys, or you'll 3:01:00.910 --> 3:01:04.369 see like special forces tabs used. You'll see guys with 3:01:04.430 --> 3:01:06.310 things that look like Ranger tabs, but 99% of the 3:01:06.350 --> 3:01:07.770 time that's from the Free Burma Rangers. 3:01:07.830 --> 3:01:08.500 That's a different thing. 3:01:09.190 --> 3:01:13.300 So it's nonetheless interesting to document the growing links between 3:01:13.360 --> 3:01:16.660 Russia and the Tatmadaw. I would really love if some 3:01:16.720 --> 3:01:19.120 of the solidarity that we've seen with the people of 3:01:19.240 --> 3:01:21.900 Ukraine could be also directed to the people of Myanmar. 3:01:22.500 --> 3:01:24.280 I can't help but think if they were white and 3:01:24.340 --> 3:01:26.280 European and they were fighting for their freedom, they might 3:01:26.320 --> 3:01:27.959 get a little more support from the rest of the world. 3:01:28.660 --> 3:01:29.580 That's what I got for you this week. 3:01:31.620 --> 3:01:34.439 We are back. Now, I said this wouldn't be an 3:01:34.480 --> 3:01:37.980 election result episode, and that is mostly true. But I 3:01:38.020 --> 3:01:42.020 will update a few races because there are still two 3:01:42.100 --> 3:01:47.250 races yet to be called Alaska and Mississippi. An Alaska Democrat, 3:01:47.290 --> 3:01:48.090 Mary Peltola. 3:01:48.129 --> 3:01:51.689 Yes, let's engage in some racism here. I forgot to 3:01:51.709 --> 3:01:52.850 do that joke yesterday. 3:01:53.090 --> 3:01:56.949 Senator Dan Sullivan, the Republican incumbent, not going to acknowledge 3:01:56.970 --> 3:02:01.850 that at all. Adam, leave it in. Right now, Peltola 3:02:01.980 --> 3:02:06.760 is up 600 votes with 25% of the vote left. 3:02:07.240 --> 3:02:10.340 So this still might go to ranked choice instant runoff 3:02:10.459 --> 3:02:12.520 if she doesn't reach 50% of the vote or more 3:02:12.540 --> 3:02:16.140 than 50% of the vote. Still a lot of votes 3:02:16.160 --> 3:02:18.520 to be counted. We'll probably know more in a few days. 3:02:18.879 --> 3:02:21.030 It's possible she does just pull ahead and this doesn't 3:02:21.270 --> 3:02:25.450 go to instant runoff. We will see. The biggest, biggest surprise, 3:02:25.490 --> 3:02:30.130 as I said yesterday, Mississippi with Scott Colum against Sidney Hyde-Smith, 3:02:30.170 --> 3:02:34.820 the Republican incumbent. Colum is a little less than 2,000 3:02:34.820 --> 3:02:38.439 votes ahead. So he has gained in the past 24 3:02:38.440 --> 3:02:43.119 hours with over 40,000 estimated votes yet to be counted. 3:02:43.840 --> 3:02:47.779 These are largely provisional or mail-in ballots, which, according to 3:02:47.800 --> 3:02:51.980 Mississippi law, can be counted till Saturday. These are expected 3:02:52.020 --> 3:02:55.019 to go mostly in Colm's favor, but this is still 3:02:55.100 --> 3:02:59.940 a super close, super close race, right? This is like 49% 3:02:59.940 --> 3:03:03.190 to 48.9%. Very close, but he is expected to pull ahead. 3:03:04.150 --> 3:03:05.709 I wanted to talk a little bit about this as 3:03:05.750 --> 3:03:11.090 like a very funny sort of revenge grudge match, which 3:03:11.310 --> 3:03:14.500 is that Scott Column was nominated to be a federal 3:03:14.550 --> 3:03:20.250 judge by Joe Biden in 2023. But there's a weird 3:03:20.330 --> 3:03:25.510 convoluted system where the senator from a state can block 3:03:25.550 --> 3:03:29.930 a nomination for federal judge appointments in their state. And 3:03:30.550 --> 3:03:35.390 the person who blocked that was Senator Hyde-Smith. 3:03:35.870 --> 3:03:36.290 Uh-huh. 3:03:37.220 --> 3:03:40.970 And this apparently was because Colum was like too pro-trans 3:03:41.010 --> 3:03:43.150 and also an unhinged thing about him getting money from 3:03:43.190 --> 3:03:49.830 George Soros. So this has been a years in the 3:03:49.910 --> 3:03:54.220 making revenge plot to some extent by Colum, who is 3:03:54.250 --> 3:03:59.300 now about to beat in Mississippi, the senator who blocked 3:03:59.320 --> 3:04:03.500 his appointment for being too pro-trans in anti-Semitic conspiracy theories. 3:04:03.600 --> 3:04:07.650 That is pretty wild. That's great. It's amazing. I have 3:04:07.730 --> 3:04:10.629 seen some sort of liberal pundits trying to paint this 3:04:10.690 --> 3:04:14.129 as an example of why it's better to nominate centrists 3:04:14.190 --> 3:04:16.170 or moderates, because otherwise there'd be no way for a 3:04:16.170 --> 3:04:20.820 Democrat to win Mississippi. People calling him a centrist just 3:04:20.879 --> 3:04:24.439 are not familiar with him or his platform. This is 3:04:24.840 --> 3:04:28.970 a firm anti-APAC Democrat running a lot of the same 3:04:29.020 --> 3:04:33.689 economic populism that we've seen across many candidates, including raising 3:04:33.709 --> 3:04:37.550 the federal minimum wage. anti-big tech stuff, like a lot 3:04:37.570 --> 3:04:39.350 of the stuff that I think we're kind of largely 3:04:39.550 --> 3:04:44.379 familiar with, beyond just saying the word affordability, like actual 3:04:45.020 --> 3:04:49.199 policy proposals, not a centrist by any means. And if 3:04:49.220 --> 3:04:52.260 he's prevented from being a judge in part by being 3:04:52.620 --> 3:04:56.849 too pro-trans, then I think that kind of bolsters my argument. 3:04:57.830 --> 3:04:58.430 Very funny. 3:04:58.830 --> 3:05:02.570 Maybe stop from being from being a judge. Apparently not 3:05:02.610 --> 3:05:04.789 stop from being a senator. So that's right. 3:05:04.990 --> 3:05:08.490 That's right. I do also want to mention a few 3:05:08.510 --> 3:05:12.570 of the DSA races a bit more in depth because 3:05:12.590 --> 3:05:15.750 the DSA now has an expanded block of eight representatives 3:05:15.850 --> 3:05:19.910 in the federal office. Rashida Tlaib was reelected in Michigan 3:05:20.070 --> 3:05:22.629 and she'll be joined by a new block of DSA 3:05:22.670 --> 3:05:26.990 House reps, including Donovan McKinney from Michigan, Chris Rabb of Pennsylvania, 3:05:27.330 --> 3:05:32.050 Milat Kiros of Colorado, Angela Gonzalez-Torres from California, which is 3:05:32.110 --> 3:05:34.390 a really solid win here. That one was kind of 3:05:34.410 --> 3:05:37.510 more of a battle district. And of course, Daria Elisa 3:05:37.560 --> 3:05:42.099 Villachavier and Claire Valdez, who joined AOC in representing New York. 3:05:43.360 --> 3:05:46.000 And so far, there's at least 93 DSA candidates who've 3:05:46.060 --> 3:05:49.160 won at the federal, state, and municipal level. And the 3:05:49.200 --> 3:05:51.400 vote still is being counted in few of those places 3:05:51.420 --> 3:05:53.480 like in California, or at least the vote was still 3:05:53.500 --> 3:05:55.780 being counted by the time I wrote this last night. 3:05:56.780 --> 3:05:59.600 One of the big races that has not been getting 3:05:59.670 --> 3:06:02.990 actually a lot of attention is the LA mayoral race, 3:06:03.090 --> 3:06:07.490 which since yesterday has been called for DSA endorsed candidate 3:06:07.530 --> 3:06:10.209 Nithya Raman. This is another thing that we should probably 3:06:10.250 --> 3:06:13.660 do a deep dive in the future. It was a 3:06:13.690 --> 3:06:17.000 close race with Raman pulling ahead by three points in 3:06:17.020 --> 3:06:21.330 the past day and a half. There's some interesting kind 3:06:21.350 --> 3:06:26.129 of background lore regarding Rahman's DSA endorsement that I do 3:06:26.150 --> 3:06:28.990 want to mention here. A few days before the election, 3:06:29.430 --> 3:06:32.820 DSA's National Political Committee, kind of like their board of directors, 3:06:33.220 --> 3:06:35.959 so to speak, voted on whether to force the local 3:06:36.040 --> 3:06:39.800 DSA LA chapter to rescind their endorsement of Rahman based 3:06:39.879 --> 3:06:43.470 on perceptions from some out-of-state DSA members that Rahman did 3:06:43.490 --> 3:06:48.770 not support the BDS movement enough, boycott, divestment, and sanctions 3:06:48.990 --> 3:06:52.340 against Israel. During the election, Rahman stated multiple times that 3:06:52.379 --> 3:06:57.070 she supports BDS as a protest tactic, but there's disagreement 3:06:57.530 --> 3:07:02.109 in DSA National on the correct interpretation of a 2025 3:07:02.110 --> 3:07:08.369 DSA Convention resolution against candidates opposing BDS and whether that 3:07:08.470 --> 3:07:13.610 means holding candidates to implementing BDS once in office. So 3:07:13.770 --> 3:07:18.780 on Sunday or Monday, just days before the election, DSA's 3:07:19.020 --> 3:07:23.940 National Political Committee voted 14 to 13, very close, to 3:07:24.140 --> 3:07:27.650 not force the local chapter to pull their endorsement before 3:07:27.709 --> 3:07:32.670 the election. This is like a razor edge vote here. 3:07:32.970 --> 3:07:36.129 And I think this general situation underlines some internal tensions 3:07:36.150 --> 3:07:39.850 within the DSA, especially DSA as a national body, not 3:07:39.910 --> 3:07:43.580 just like big chapters like New York or LA. Absolutely. 3:07:44.220 --> 3:07:46.519 But there are these big tensions between the so-called mass 3:07:46.580 --> 3:07:48.720 politics wing and what I would kind of call like 3:07:48.860 --> 3:07:53.400 the Zoranist wing of DSA, the Socialist Majority Caucus, Groundwork Caucus, 3:07:54.080 --> 3:07:57.820 versus the more kind of agitational activist side of DSA, 3:07:58.340 --> 3:08:01.570 characterized internally as like the quote unquote left wing of DSA, 3:08:02.120 --> 3:08:06.270 which focuses more on like abolitionism, anti-imperialism, and also has 3:08:06.290 --> 3:08:09.990 some more kind of like campist tendencies. I think that 3:08:10.030 --> 3:08:12.709 sort of agitational side has more representation on like the 3:08:12.770 --> 3:08:16.270 national body chapter than what they have in local chapters 3:08:16.400 --> 3:08:19.180 like LA and New York, where a bunch of members 3:08:19.220 --> 3:08:22.680 are concentrated. And because of that split, we're seeing this 3:08:22.720 --> 3:08:24.599 kind of drama play out between some of these bigger 3:08:24.640 --> 3:08:26.400 chapters and the national organization. 3:08:26.560 --> 3:08:30.220 Which I will say, SOC Soak Dems, all power to 3:08:30.260 --> 3:08:32.750 the locals looking a lot better now, huh? 3:08:33.670 --> 3:08:34.709 Ah, okay. 3:08:34.750 --> 3:08:37.050 Decade, decade, decade old DSA drama aside. 3:08:40.700 --> 3:08:45.289 Two other, not technically, I guess, DSA races, but DSA-like 3:08:45.410 --> 3:08:47.910 or like Bernie-crat kind of like races I want to mention. 3:08:48.450 --> 3:08:53.790 Justin Pearson, a Democrat in Tennessee, unfortunately lost by less 3:08:53.830 --> 3:08:57.220 than 3,000 votes to Republican Brett Taylor in a newly 3:08:57.300 --> 3:09:03.560 redrawn House district. This was redistricted into a Trump 22 district, 3:09:04.180 --> 3:09:07.820 and Pearson ended up trailing by just a few thousand votes, 3:09:07.920 --> 3:09:11.560 like a very small margin. This one was quite sad 3:09:11.600 --> 3:09:16.709 to see. Pearson's great. Though in Michigan, in Michigan's 7th district, 3:09:16.750 --> 3:09:21.110 William Lawrence went up against Republican incumbent Tom Barrett. Lawrence 3:09:21.170 --> 3:09:25.070 is of the Sunrise Movement organization. This is a big 3:09:25.090 --> 3:09:28.330 swing district. Centrists, moderates were concerned that Lawrence was going 3:09:28.350 --> 3:09:30.870 to be too far left and would keep this district red. 3:09:31.270 --> 3:09:34.330 Did not happen. Lawrence was able to pull this off 3:09:35.100 --> 3:09:40.279 despite over $ 20 million in GOP spending against Lawrence. So 3:09:41.500 --> 3:09:44.200 that is one of the more interesting results of the night. 3:09:45.000 --> 3:09:49.420 Let's go on an ad break and then talk about copium. 3:09:49.480 --> 3:10:05.150 Let's talk about the copium. Okay, we are back. Do 3:10:06.310 --> 3:10:08.709 you know who's not back? The Republican Party. They are 3:10:09.200 --> 3:10:12.920 Not feeling so hot. And it was it was really funny. 3:10:13.350 --> 3:10:17.570 A few days before the election on Halloween, Mike Johnson 3:10:17.910 --> 3:10:19.550 made this proclamation. 3:10:20.050 --> 3:10:22.190 I have been all over the country, my friends, and 3:10:22.209 --> 3:10:23.879 I'm feeling really good right now. 3:10:23.920 --> 3:10:26.020 I'm telling you, the polls are wrong, OK? 3:10:26.840 --> 3:10:28.820 We're going to defy history and we are going to 3:10:28.840 --> 3:10:31.039 be celebrating big victories. 3:10:30.720 --> 3:10:32.260 On Tuesday night. That's my prediction, OK? 3:10:35.450 --> 3:10:35.930 Amen. 3:10:36.050 --> 3:10:36.990 It's a spiritual battle. 3:10:37.030 --> 3:10:37.510 Yes, ma'am. 3:10:37.890 --> 3:10:38.550 Great prediction. 3:10:38.610 --> 3:10:42.369 Hey, I mean, look, the first two predictions were true. 3:10:42.670 --> 3:10:47.840 The polls were wrong. They did make history. There were great. 3:10:47.700 --> 3:10:50.280 Victories, too, just not the ones he was anticipating. 3:10:51.260 --> 3:10:53.400 Unfortunately, the way you did it was by getting a 3:10:53.440 --> 3:10:54.800 historic ass kicking. 3:10:55.480 --> 3:10:57.820 Yeah, beautiful. And losing your job. 3:10:57.840 --> 3:11:00.520 But hey, that'll mean he has more time to monitor 3:11:00.560 --> 3:11:02.520 his son's erections, which we know is his passion. 3:11:03.490 --> 3:11:06.709 Mike Johnson has indicated he will not be staying on 3:11:06.850 --> 3:11:10.369 as the– does not intend to stay on as minority 3:11:10.970 --> 3:11:13.529 leader for the Republicans. So, yeah, he will have more 3:11:13.570 --> 3:11:16.170 time to monitor his son's erections. 3:11:16.890 --> 3:11:18.970 Which I also want to mention here that this sets 3:11:19.030 --> 3:11:23.619 up a sort of fascinating– race for who who who 3:11:23.640 --> 3:11:25.400 the minority leader is going to be to replace him 3:11:25.420 --> 3:11:28.380 because i think people have forgotten this the reason mike 3:11:28.420 --> 3:11:31.800 johnson was elected in the first place was that the 3:11:31.820 --> 3:11:35.440 previous majority leader like couldn't survive a no confidence vote 3:11:35.600 --> 3:11:38.120 it was really hard to find one yeah yeah and 3:11:38.140 --> 3:11:40.120 they picked mike johnson because nobody had any idea who 3:11:40.160 --> 3:11:42.090 he was and they didn't realize how weird he was. 3:11:42.690 --> 3:11:45.920 Which, by the way, is the same reason Dennis Hastert 3:11:46.140 --> 3:11:49.160 got Speaker of the House, right? Was that like, he 3:11:49.180 --> 3:11:52.020 was considered safe, he wasn't seen as ambitious, and no 3:11:52.080 --> 3:11:53.960 one knew anything about him. So he didn't seem to 3:11:54.000 --> 3:11:54.800 have any scandals. 3:11:56.080 --> 3:12:00.340 So Mike Johnson's optimism in that clip there, delusional or not, 3:12:01.420 --> 3:12:05.310 was also promoted by Fox News' Jesse Waters before the election, 3:12:05.610 --> 3:12:09.150 by casting serious doubt on the blue wave and predicting 3:12:09.170 --> 3:12:11.890 that the youth and Hispanic turnout would be low. 3:12:12.310 --> 3:12:17.789 Here is the headline, Jessica. There is no blue tsunami. Yes, 3:12:18.090 --> 3:12:20.280 there is a maybe a three foot wave that's going 3:12:20.320 --> 3:12:24.200 to knock out a few sandcastles. But the Democrat narrative 3:12:24.260 --> 3:12:26.599 that this thing is going to sweep the nation. 3:12:26.720 --> 3:12:31.060 Does not exist. The red wall is forming. 3:12:31.920 --> 3:12:36.180 Older voters are showing up to vote against socialism, and 3:12:36.230 --> 3:12:38.950 the youth and the Hispanics are not showing up. 3:12:39.170 --> 3:12:40.350 Sure. Yeah, they didn't. 3:12:40.790 --> 3:12:43.530 I just want to put on the record that the 3:12:43.590 --> 3:12:46.400 way that he said the Hispanics is a. 3:12:46.390 --> 3:12:49.980 Yes, that is... That is something he intentionally... That's something 3:12:50.010 --> 3:12:54.940 he intentionally does consistently also by saying the blacks, also 3:12:55.020 --> 3:12:58.060 the whites. This is like one of his reoccurring bits almost. 3:12:58.280 --> 3:12:59.300 Jesus Christ. 3:13:00.140 --> 3:13:00.359 But. 3:13:00.860 --> 3:13:04.550 Basically, everything he said in that sentence was completely wrong. 3:13:06.030 --> 3:13:08.730 And after the election, Waters sang a bit of a 3:13:08.830 --> 3:13:16.359 different tune, dooming how Republicans lost whites, men, Hispanics and farmers. 3:13:16.600 --> 3:13:18.520 The coalition's totally collapsed. 3:13:18.560 --> 3:13:20.140 I mean, we lost whites? 3:13:20.520 --> 3:13:20.920 Whites! 3:13:22.330 --> 3:13:26.410 You can't do that if you're a Republican. Men, Hispanics, 3:13:26.490 --> 3:13:27.050 big time. 3:13:27.709 --> 3:13:29.330 And so it's going to take a while to put 3:13:29.370 --> 3:13:32.490 the coalition back together because it was in the heartland. 3:13:33.430 --> 3:13:35.670 So what happened was, so China, in. 3:13:35.650 --> 3:13:38.289 Order to pressure Trump in the trade war, stopped buying 3:13:38.350 --> 3:13:42.800 crops from the farmers. And then you do the Hormuz 3:13:42.920 --> 3:13:45.760 Strait squeeze and fertilizer and diesel go up. 3:13:45.820 --> 3:13:49.640 So, whoa, they move blue. Which. 3:13:50.660 --> 3:13:53.560 He's not wrong there, but, like, that was you guys. Like, 3:13:53.600 --> 3:13:55.100 you didn't have to do any of this. 3:13:55.680 --> 3:13:58.580 No, none of this was necessary. I mean, and that's, like, 3:13:58.780 --> 3:14:01.320 they've been having to, like, J.D. Vance is kind of 3:14:01.360 --> 3:14:04.400 the closest people in high power to coming out and saying, like, 3:14:04.420 --> 3:14:07.840 this is just a horrible fuck-up. But Trump has even admitted, like, yeah, 3:14:07.879 --> 3:14:09.930 Iran is what screwed us, but we had to do it. 3:14:10.140 --> 3:14:16.619 It was the only option. They had to keep... So 3:14:16.780 --> 3:14:19.780 since the results on Tuesday night, there's been a lot 3:14:19.800 --> 3:14:23.280 of kind of attempted explanations from the Republicans to figure 3:14:23.330 --> 3:14:27.050 out what the fuck just happened. One of them coming 3:14:27.129 --> 3:14:31.510 from some Republican operatives is that Trump got too friendly 3:14:31.550 --> 3:14:35.930 with Mamdani and that kind of sabotaged the Republicans campaign strategy. 3:14:36.470 --> 3:14:39.900 To quote from the Wall Street Journal, quote, Republicans plans 3:14:39.930 --> 3:14:43.060 to make Zoran Mamdani, the 35-year-old socialist who became New 3:14:43.100 --> 3:14:45.970 York City's mayor last year, the face of a party 3:14:46.010 --> 3:14:48.950 that they would paint as out of touch with most Americans. 3:14:49.629 --> 3:14:51.490 In September, when Trump was in New York ahead of 3:14:51.530 --> 3:14:55.090 the UN General Assembly, Mamdani had a surprise announcement. He 3:14:55.250 --> 3:14:58.930 had invited Trump to meet. Republicans in the House were apoplectic. 3:14:59.640 --> 3:15:02.920 House Speaker Mike Johnson told White House officials, an image 3:15:03.000 --> 3:15:05.820 of Trump being friendly with Mamdani would hurt Republican House 3:15:05.840 --> 3:15:09.459 candidates in New York who are running on an anti-Mamdani message. 3:15:10.060 --> 3:15:12.840 Trump aides didn't like the idea either, according to people 3:15:12.879 --> 3:15:15.950 familiar with the matter. Trump and Mamdani met at Gracie Mansion, 3:15:16.010 --> 3:15:19.830 the mayor's residence, just as the president wanted. Johnson later 3:15:19.890 --> 3:15:22.610 told others that it was an unforced error in a 3:15:22.670 --> 3:15:28.170 difficult election year, unquote. Very funny, but definitely, definitely true. 3:15:28.270 --> 3:15:29.890 If you remember when Mamdani was elected, there was a 3:15:29.910 --> 3:15:32.290 lot of dooming on how this is now going to 3:15:32.310 --> 3:15:35.390 give Republicans this perfect talking point going into the midterms 3:15:35.410 --> 3:15:38.270 about how crazy the Democrats are. And because of how 3:15:38.330 --> 3:15:41.420 good Mamdani's poll numbers have been, how well he's just 3:15:41.520 --> 3:15:44.670 governed in general, which is kind of acknowledged in big 3:15:44.709 --> 3:15:48.690 parts by like even Fox and Trump to some degree, 3:15:49.050 --> 3:15:51.349 that kind of threw a wrench in their plans to 3:15:51.580 --> 3:15:56.060 paint Mamdani as like emblematic of the craziness of the Democrats. Instead, 3:15:56.100 --> 3:15:58.540 they kind of tried to do that with Al-Sayed, which 3:15:58.560 --> 3:16:00.880 also just didn't pan out for them at all either. 3:16:01.900 --> 3:16:05.340 There was some kind of early explanations from the, you know, 3:16:05.900 --> 3:16:10.740 Fox brain trust as they saw results coming in. One 3:16:10.800 --> 3:16:15.599 being that youth just want instant gratification and can't commit 3:16:15.620 --> 3:16:21.250 to anything. They can't stick with anything like voting GOP. Forever. Yeah. Forever. 3:16:21.850 --> 3:16:23.750 This idea that I've been thinking about a lot, which 3:16:23.830 --> 3:16:27.730 is just this shortened attention span, that everybody wants everything, 3:16:27.750 --> 3:16:31.600 you And, you know, I gave you my vote for 3:16:31.660 --> 3:16:33.720 two years and now I want to switch to somebody else. 3:16:33.840 --> 3:16:35.740 And a lot of these voters don't seem to be 3:16:35.800 --> 3:16:39.650 expressing what it is they think they're getting by switching over. 3:16:39.670 --> 3:16:41.789 And we'll see how it pans out tonight. But I 3:16:41.830 --> 3:16:44.490 think that's a change dynamic in America. Well, I also 3:16:44.550 --> 3:16:47.790 believe that when you're scrolling, if it says Medicare for all, 3:16:47.810 --> 3:16:48.650 you're like, yeah, I'm for that. 3:16:48.790 --> 3:16:49.650 OK, now you're moving on. 3:16:49.650 --> 3:16:49.970 You're watching. 3:16:50.110 --> 3:16:51.510 The football game and you're learning how to put a 3:16:51.530 --> 3:16:53.950 French hairpin in your in your hair. Like it's just 3:16:53.980 --> 3:16:55.170 like there's so much going on. 3:16:55.820 --> 3:16:58.260 Yeah, that's it. No. Yeah, that's it. I think they 3:16:58.280 --> 3:17:00.240 got it. I think they cracked the case. 3:17:00.320 --> 3:17:00.619 Yeah. 3:17:00.820 --> 3:17:05.330 Oh, God. They're on their damn phones too much, and 3:17:05.350 --> 3:17:09.119 the serotonin receptors are screwed. They just want everything super fast. 3:17:09.180 --> 3:17:13.000 They can't stick with a hard two more years, as 3:17:13.060 --> 3:17:18.050 Vance requested, of war with Iran. Skyrocketing prices. 3:17:18.070 --> 3:17:22.090 Skyrocketing prices, yeah. And ICE raids, yes. The youth should 3:17:22.110 --> 3:17:24.080 have just had the chutzpah to stick it out a 3:17:24.100 --> 3:17:26.160 little bit longer. See where that was going to lead. 3:17:26.360 --> 3:17:30.379 Party discipline is the one thing that's lacking among youth. 3:17:30.400 --> 3:17:32.800 You have to give people a reason to be loyal 3:17:32.860 --> 3:17:36.950 to a party. And that's like the antithesis of conservatism. 3:17:37.990 --> 3:17:40.289 This really does highlight their sort of biggest frustration and 3:17:40.310 --> 3:17:43.490 their biggest miscalculation is that they thought the 2024 electorate 3:17:45.100 --> 3:17:48.000 is the new electorate. That's where the new lines are. 3:17:48.080 --> 3:17:50.760 The youth are going to stay with them. They did 3:17:50.780 --> 3:17:53.459 not realize that the people who ended up voting for 3:17:53.500 --> 3:17:55.900 Trump in really big numbers in 2024 were not doing 3:17:55.920 --> 3:17:57.680 it out of loyalty to Trump, but out of this 3:17:58.220 --> 3:18:02.470 huge anti-incumbent sentiments and major frustrations at the Biden administration. 3:18:03.310 --> 3:18:07.010 And they thought that that then created loyal Trump voters. 3:18:07.600 --> 3:18:10.369 And no, those same frustrations then just got moved over 3:18:10.390 --> 3:18:13.170 to Trump because he continued all the same bad stuff 3:18:13.690 --> 3:18:17.090 and then added a whole bunch of new bad stuff. Yeah. 3:18:17.150 --> 3:18:19.830 Everyone suddenly remembered. Well, it's probably a combination of people 3:18:19.870 --> 3:18:23.520 remembering that living under Trump sucks and then people learning 3:18:23.540 --> 3:18:24.400 for the first time. 3:18:24.440 --> 3:18:28.619 Like, this is awful. It's even worse than the last time. 3:18:30.000 --> 3:18:33.310 On Wednesday, Vice President J.D. Vance posted what I'll call 3:18:33.330 --> 3:18:36.320 a screed on X The Everything app. 3:18:36.330 --> 3:18:36.430 Yeah. 3:18:37.260 --> 3:18:40.490 That's about right. Going over kind of his analysis of 3:18:40.590 --> 3:18:45.010 what happened and how much maybe where Republicans kind of 3:18:45.030 --> 3:18:47.170 dropped the ball and how they were thinking about kind 3:18:47.190 --> 3:18:49.129 of what the voter composition would be. 3:18:49.230 --> 3:18:49.410 Right. 3:18:49.790 --> 3:18:52.539 If is this electorate going to be the 2024 electorate again? 3:18:52.560 --> 3:18:56.520 And he he talked about in this screed as the 3:18:56.540 --> 3:18:59.240 election date, as the midterms got closer, he started developing 3:18:59.260 --> 3:19:02.140 suspicions that, no, that's not going to be the electorate. 3:19:02.160 --> 3:19:05.530 And he started asking his like polling guys what what 3:19:05.610 --> 3:19:08.810 they think is going to happen. I will quote from 3:19:08.890 --> 3:19:13.650 his screed. Despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the 3:19:13.670 --> 3:19:16.430 data kept telling us the same story. In some states, 3:19:16.530 --> 3:19:19.680 turnout was merely okay. In other states, it was downright amazing. 3:19:20.080 --> 3:19:22.460 And in no state was it catastrophic. There was a 3:19:22.500 --> 3:19:26.080 genuine sense of optimism on our team. Our people, our voters, 3:19:26.580 --> 3:19:29.859 are showing up. So I asked the smartest data guy 3:19:29.900 --> 3:19:33.220 I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? No, 3:19:33.360 --> 3:19:35.959 he told me. We might do better than the polls suggest. 3:19:36.300 --> 3:19:36.679 They didn't. 3:19:37.310 --> 3:19:38.949 But the data is telling us that a lot of 3:19:38.990 --> 3:19:42.090 Trump-Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for 3:19:42.110 --> 3:19:45.949 the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they 3:19:45.990 --> 3:19:50.500 may not vote for us. Vance continues, Undoubtedly, there were 3:19:50.600 --> 3:19:53.880 places we could have done better on turnout, but the 3:19:53.920 --> 3:19:56.480 main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that 3:19:56.540 --> 3:20:00.619 many people who voted for Trump-Vance 2024 voted for Democrats 3:20:00.680 --> 3:20:04.640 in 2026. Then Vance listed the top four reasons causing 3:20:04.660 --> 3:20:09.060 this switch, quote, end the war, focus on cost of 3:20:09.100 --> 3:20:13.830 living and inflation, put America first and change our relationship 3:20:13.930 --> 3:20:14.770 to Israel. 3:20:15.790 --> 3:20:19.310 Which is very funny because like three of those like 3:20:19.590 --> 3:20:22.890 end the war, cost of living, inflation and change relationship 3:20:22.910 --> 3:20:24.070 to Israel. It's like, oh, so. 3:20:24.050 --> 3:20:25.730 You're the Mamdani campaign. 3:20:26.760 --> 3:20:29.120 Like the Republicans are like, what if we did the 3:20:29.140 --> 3:20:32.240 Mondani campaign, but like actually anti-Semitic? 3:20:33.020 --> 3:20:35.879 It's interesting. It's like they might start kind of converging 3:20:35.920 --> 3:20:43.410 on a more kind of nationalistic form of socialism. Yeah. Yeah. 3:20:43.550 --> 3:20:46.690 A kind of national socialism has never gone wrong before. 3:20:47.070 --> 3:20:53.810 There's no precedent for this. But Vance ended his screen, quote, 3:20:54.290 --> 3:20:57.250 our voters showed up and the above four reasons are 3:20:57.290 --> 3:20:59.830 why many of them voted for Democrats. I am open 3:20:59.870 --> 3:21:03.470 to the idea that we should change enforcement, immigration enforcement, 3:21:03.930 --> 3:21:07.670 by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. 3:21:08.209 --> 3:21:11.810 But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason 3:21:11.850 --> 3:21:15.720 we lost is the war. The president himself said so 3:21:15.820 --> 3:21:19.220 last night, unquote. I like that he has to add 3:21:19.280 --> 3:21:23.000 in his little kind of ice quote. soft defense there 3:21:23.060 --> 3:21:26.949 in his final point about the war costing them the election, which, yeah, 3:21:27.140 --> 3:21:28.800 it does. The war was a huge part of that. 3:21:29.959 --> 3:21:32.160 The Trump administration saw some of this coming in the 3:21:32.200 --> 3:21:34.620 days before the election, because on the morning of Election Day, 3:21:34.730 --> 3:21:37.209 Trump told Fox News that the U.S. will stop sending 3:21:37.209 --> 3:21:39.690 $ 4 billion in aid to Israel by the end of 3:21:39.750 --> 3:21:42.670 this year. Did not matter. You can't just drop that 3:21:42.970 --> 3:21:46.170 on Election Day and think that's going to change the results. Also, 3:21:46.270 --> 3:21:49.289 no one believes you. But he did. He did say 3:21:49.330 --> 3:21:53.050 that in part to kind of defang the potency of 3:21:53.129 --> 3:21:57.529 candidates like El-Sayed, who campaigned in large part against sending 3:21:57.590 --> 3:22:00.410 money to Israel. Trump also said election morning in a 3:22:00.810 --> 3:22:05.400 bizarre kind of final message before the midterms, quote, if 3:22:05.430 --> 3:22:07.800 people ever got tired of me in the US, I'll 3:22:07.840 --> 3:22:09.959 move to Israel and become prime minister. 3:22:10.660 --> 3:22:11.280 Sure, man. 3:22:11.459 --> 3:22:15.120 I don't know. We're moving from the settler colony to 3:22:15.180 --> 3:22:20.550 like a shittier, smaller settler colony. I do want to 3:22:20.570 --> 3:22:25.470 mention one other Republican's reaction to the results. That's Ron DeSantis. 3:22:26.030 --> 3:22:28.750 Both we and others have talked about DeSantis calling Tuesday's 3:22:28.790 --> 3:22:32.689 election an extinction level event for Republicans. But I also 3:22:32.709 --> 3:22:36.129 want to highlight a later part of his speech where 3:22:36.150 --> 3:22:40.449 DeSantis identifies where he thinks Republicans got off track. Quote, 3:22:41.129 --> 3:22:43.510 I knew Republicans were in trouble when I was reading 3:22:43.530 --> 3:22:47.150 an overview of what they were running ads on. And 3:22:47.370 --> 3:22:52.080 they are spending hundreds of millions on transgender ads. That 3:22:52.110 --> 3:22:55.300 was not the issue motivating voters. And it was kind 3:22:55.320 --> 3:22:59.019 of an attempt to just scare Republicans to vote. Now, 3:22:59.280 --> 3:23:02.400 the issues are different. And Republicans, it seemed like in 3:23:02.420 --> 3:23:04.019 some of the ads I was seeing, with how much 3:23:04.180 --> 3:23:08.810 money they were spending, they were really fighting yesterday's battle. Unquote. 3:23:09.170 --> 3:23:15.210 We're all looking for the guy who did this. Uh-huh. Yeah. 3:23:15.370 --> 3:23:21.800 You're telling me, huh? Maybe it's not the issue motivating voters. Yeah, 3:23:21.820 --> 3:23:23.060 you sure about that? You sure about that? 3:23:25.980 --> 3:23:31.039 Which, look, at least the transgender community is getting a 3:23:31.260 --> 3:23:34.600 tiny form of revenge for all of the shit that 3:23:34.620 --> 3:23:36.560 we've had to go through and will continue to go through. 3:23:36.580 --> 3:23:38.360 A revenge amuse-bouche. 3:23:38.970 --> 3:23:42.930 Yeah, well, this is the reefing the whirlwind appetizer. We 3:23:42.950 --> 3:23:44.750 will get the main course in time. 3:23:44.770 --> 3:23:47.590 Yeah, the whirlwind takes another 70 minutes to cook. It's 3:23:47.610 --> 3:23:48.570 like ordering the souffle. 3:23:48.590 --> 3:23:53.290 Yeah, I think one of the most sort of shocking 3:23:53.310 --> 3:23:58.900 things Results of this election cycle was a quite progressive 3:23:59.580 --> 3:24:03.880 trans woman winning a Alabama state house seat in Montgomery. 3:24:03.900 --> 3:24:07.780 She pulled a 22 point swing to win it, to 3:24:07.840 --> 3:24:10.810 win a district that was like Trump plus 16. 3:24:10.810 --> 3:24:13.410 Also, her name is Montgomery. It's the same thing with 3:24:13.430 --> 3:24:18.369 the fucking Hungary guy. Her name, her name is Alison Montgomery. 3:24:18.390 --> 3:24:24.349 I should have put that together. That's hilarious. Yeah. 3:24:24.470 --> 3:24:26.690 And, you know, her opponents ran a whole bunch of 3:24:26.750 --> 3:24:30.370 anti-trans attack ads and she, you know, called them pedophiles 3:24:30.750 --> 3:24:35.110 and did a bunch of anti-data center stuff and stuff 3:24:35.129 --> 3:24:38.530 like that. And one in a place that is, you know, 3:24:38.550 --> 3:24:40.890 like there are obviously there's a lot of trans organizing 3:24:40.910 --> 3:24:43.170 in the Deep South. To the best of my knowledge, 3:24:43.510 --> 3:24:47.320 like Montgomery, Alabama is like not like this part of Alabama, 3:24:47.340 --> 3:24:48.840 this part of the city of Alabama is like not 3:24:49.860 --> 3:24:54.590 a trans hub. This isn't a district in Atlanta or something. 3:24:54.610 --> 3:25:02.150 Or New Orleans. This is not that. This was deep Trump. Again, 3:25:02.290 --> 3:25:04.170 Trump plus 16. 3:25:04.170 --> 3:25:07.560 She ran on an economic populist platform that most people 3:25:07.610 --> 3:25:12.820 can agree on. That it's a common sense anti-corporate platform. 3:25:13.379 --> 3:25:13.699 Yeah. 3:25:14.560 --> 3:25:16.080 And I think this is a thing that you know, 3:25:18.230 --> 3:25:19.490 It's something I think Gary's going to talk about a 3:25:19.510 --> 3:25:21.380 little bit, but a lot of the narrative about sort 3:25:21.400 --> 3:25:24.680 of Like, ah, progressive candidates did worse than non-progressive candidates. 3:25:25.060 --> 3:25:28.360 It's like, trans women running on, like, the Bomdani platform 3:25:28.400 --> 3:25:30.560 are winning in Alabama. Like, eat shit. 3:25:30.720 --> 3:25:34.480 Yeah, no, it's super absurd. Like, there's just no... Get 3:25:34.640 --> 3:25:37.519 out of here. This is my frustration, because the word 3:25:37.580 --> 3:25:42.980 progressive just doesn't mean anything. Like, does progressive mean that 3:25:43.040 --> 3:25:47.000 you're a corporatist Democrat with good social policies? Does it 3:25:47.020 --> 3:25:49.650 mean you're an economic populist who doesn't really talk about 3:25:49.670 --> 3:25:53.130 culture or issues? Like, what does progressive mean? 3:25:53.150 --> 3:25:53.449 Yeah. 3:25:53.830 --> 3:25:57.150 Does it mean you're Gamal Abdul Nasser, who was originally 3:25:57.209 --> 3:26:01.110 a progressive? Like, who knows? No meaning. 3:26:01.890 --> 3:26:04.850 It is really frustrating. This whole narrative, I just don't 3:26:04.910 --> 3:26:08.180 find compelling at all because the vast majority of these 3:26:08.440 --> 3:26:13.990 swing state candidates won on economic populism. anti-corruption, stopping foreign wars. 3:26:14.650 --> 3:26:19.180 It's hard to characterize most of these candidates as centrists. Now, 3:26:19.220 --> 3:26:23.199 there are some moderates and more center-left Democrats mixed in there, 3:26:23.240 --> 3:26:27.080 like in Alaska. And there's a lot of issues with 3:26:27.120 --> 3:26:30.920 many of these candidates. They are not perfect by any means. 3:26:31.580 --> 3:26:34.070 But when you're seeing liberal pundits really push this narrative 3:26:34.090 --> 3:26:38.830 that moderates are winning way better than progressives or winning 3:26:38.870 --> 3:26:42.170 way better than socialists, it's very clear that they're just 3:26:42.310 --> 3:26:48.180 setting up a narrative to crush any potential progressive, left-wing, 3:26:48.680 --> 3:26:52.420 or like a real populist from taking the lead in 3:26:52.480 --> 3:26:56.520 the primary to become president in 2028. They're running the 3:26:56.580 --> 3:27:01.270 same electability playbook, trying to convince people that candidates on 3:27:01.310 --> 3:27:04.550 the left don't stand as good of a chance as winning. 3:27:05.250 --> 3:27:07.590 And this is all very silly to me because El 3:27:07.610 --> 3:27:11.510 Sayed did win. He won. He is going to be 3:27:11.550 --> 3:27:15.699 the senator. Troy Jackson did win. But the only thing 3:27:15.760 --> 3:27:17.560 a lot of these liberal pundits can talk about is 3:27:17.600 --> 3:27:21.480 how El Sayed did not do maybe as well as 3:27:21.600 --> 3:27:26.670 some other candidates, especially compared to like Tallarico. And again, 3:27:26.690 --> 3:27:29.230 I think this is all very silly because Tallarico and 3:27:29.270 --> 3:27:34.180 El Sayed actually had very similar platforms. And these races 3:27:34.360 --> 3:27:38.480 had a lot of different parts. Ken Paxton is much 3:27:38.600 --> 3:27:42.040 more hated than Mike Rogers, who is generally one of 3:27:42.080 --> 3:27:48.089 the more liked Republicans in this midterm election. And prominent 3:27:48.150 --> 3:27:53.250 Democrats tried to sabotage El Sayed for months from Neera 3:27:53.330 --> 3:27:57.380 Tanden and to comments made by Nancy Pelosi, and of course, 3:27:57.840 --> 3:28:02.510 Haley Stevens endorsing the Republican days before the election. Also, 3:28:02.970 --> 3:28:06.609 just tons and tons of money was mobilized in Michigan. 3:28:06.629 --> 3:28:09.430 It was also mobilized in Texas, but way more was 3:28:09.450 --> 3:28:13.410 spent in Michigan than almost any other Senate race. And 3:28:13.530 --> 3:28:18.590 in the end, El-Sayed performed pretty similarly to other statewide 3:28:18.750 --> 3:28:23.170 Democratic candidates. He did perform slightly under the gubernatorial candidate, 3:28:23.250 --> 3:28:26.250 but performed better than the attorney general candidate. And there's 3:28:26.270 --> 3:28:28.529 a lot of just little differences in how states elect 3:28:28.610 --> 3:28:32.720 people sometimes. Like Maine historically selected a much more democratic 3:28:33.240 --> 3:28:39.000 governor than the representatives they've sent to D.C. And speaking 3:28:39.060 --> 3:28:43.679 of Maine, I do not think centrist moderates can really 3:28:43.820 --> 3:28:47.420 accurately say that a more moderate candidate would have won 3:28:47.470 --> 3:28:51.550 by more against Susan Collins. Collins has shown herself to 3:28:51.570 --> 3:28:55.830 be incredibly resilient. Anyone running against Collins would have had 3:28:55.870 --> 3:29:00.330 a hard time. And it turned out a union populist 3:29:00.350 --> 3:29:04.390 candidate eventually was the guy to beat Collins. I think 3:29:04.410 --> 3:29:07.430 it's also very disingenuous to point to Florida when the 3:29:07.480 --> 3:29:10.940 Democrats just totally abandoned the race in Florida, leaving Angie 3:29:10.959 --> 3:29:13.220 Nixon to fend for herself. And all things considered, I 3:29:13.240 --> 3:29:15.980 think Nixon actually did quite well having to run that 3:29:16.040 --> 3:29:19.840 entire campaign herself. And her opponent, Ashley Moody, had the 3:29:19.910 --> 3:29:23.990 highest independent favorability rating. So if you're going to evaluate, 3:29:24.010 --> 3:29:28.170 you know, the minute differences between progressives and moderates in 3:29:28.190 --> 3:29:29.910 these races, I think you actually have to look at 3:29:30.510 --> 3:29:34.610 the minute details of each individual race and not flatten 3:29:34.629 --> 3:29:38.350 things out into these generalizations that probably don't hold water 3:29:38.390 --> 3:29:41.230 when you consider things more closely. And keep in mind, 3:29:41.250 --> 3:29:44.750 this whole rhetorical game played by liberal pundits is in 3:29:44.790 --> 3:29:48.379 preparation of trying to crush any left-wing candidate for president 3:29:48.680 --> 3:29:53.640 in 2028. Anyway, let's get into some of the Democratic 3:29:53.920 --> 3:29:58.119 Party reactions to their own victory. And it's interesting because 3:29:58.150 --> 3:30:00.010 this is all kind of in the shadow of Trump 3:30:00.030 --> 3:30:03.800 announcing election night on a phone call with Politico. that 3:30:03.830 --> 3:30:06.360 he is interested in working with Democrats to pass bills 3:30:06.440 --> 3:30:08.620 and doesn't just want to sit in the office for 3:30:08.660 --> 3:30:11.280 two years and veto everything. That was the way he 3:30:11.320 --> 3:30:14.680 put it. Weak, scared. He said it very scared in 3:30:14.900 --> 3:30:17.380 this clip. I may as well actually just play. It's 3:30:17.520 --> 3:30:20.360 only 15 seconds. He does sound very scared in this. 3:30:20.780 --> 3:30:21.720 Well, we're going to work with. 3:30:21.620 --> 3:30:25.120 The Democrats to make sure things go well for our country. 3:30:25.170 --> 3:30:25.910 Very important. 3:30:25.930 --> 3:30:27.930 They've already called and they want to work with me. 3:30:27.930 --> 3:30:29.370 I have the right to veto everything. 3:30:30.230 --> 3:30:30.850 But I don't want to. 3:30:30.790 --> 3:30:33.070 Be just sitting there for two years vetoing everything. 3:30:33.810 --> 3:30:35.369 They want to see things happen. 3:30:35.030 --> 3:30:42.129 Too does not sound does not sound happy yeah. 3:30:40.230 --> 3:30:42.110 That that is that is the sound of a man 3:30:42.170 --> 3:30:44.490 who was like oh fuck if i don't keep schumer 3:30:44.530 --> 3:30:47.330 in power i could go to prison yeah oh speaking 3:30:47.370 --> 3:30:52.050 of schumer horrible speech election night brick wall. 3:30:53.770 --> 3:30:55.800 In more than one way uh do you want to 3:30:55.840 --> 3:30:58.860 play this this this clip of schumer talking about his 3:30:59.060 --> 3:31:02.000 aspirations of becoming the speaker again How do you deal 3:31:02.020 --> 3:31:04.200 with those candidates who won, who said they're not going 3:31:04.220 --> 3:31:06.980 to vote for you? Adam Hamilton, Troy Jackson. 3:31:07.340 --> 3:31:10.800 Again, to repeat the answer, the issue is not me. 3:31:11.340 --> 3:31:15.510 I'll be reelected as majority leader. But the issue is 3:31:15.650 --> 3:31:20.170 focusing on the American people and what they want. 3:31:22.970 --> 3:31:25.010 I like that he slipped into saying minority leader because 3:31:25.030 --> 3:31:26.589 he's so used to being a loser. 3:31:27.590 --> 3:31:27.910 Yeah. 3:31:29.950 --> 3:31:32.180 No, Schumer should not be. Obviously not. 3:31:32.740 --> 3:31:33.940 No, no, no. 3:31:34.060 --> 3:31:34.640 He is. 3:31:34.780 --> 3:31:35.000 He has. 3:31:35.020 --> 3:31:37.640 He has been one of the key levers of power 3:31:37.740 --> 3:31:41.460 for the Republican Party in rallying the Democrats to vote 3:31:41.720 --> 3:31:44.920 for a bunch of the horrific shit that amazingly like 3:31:45.310 --> 3:31:47.590 the some of the stuff that lost Trump the election 3:31:47.650 --> 3:31:50.349 that was in the big, beautiful bill like passed because 3:31:50.410 --> 3:31:53.140 of Schumer, like whipping people in order to vote for it. 3:31:53.350 --> 3:31:53.530 Yeah. 3:31:54.250 --> 3:31:55.750 And Schumer himself also voted for that, too. 3:31:56.560 --> 3:31:59.260 Since Tuesday, Bernie has started a push to get more 3:31:59.300 --> 3:32:02.019 Dems to sign on to Medicare for All, and he 3:32:02.080 --> 3:32:04.820 will likely become the new chair of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, 3:32:04.879 --> 3:32:09.780 and Pensions Committee. Minnesota Senator-elect Peggy Flanagan has loudly proclaimed, 3:32:09.959 --> 3:32:15.000 we will rip ICE apart. And incoming House Oversight and 3:32:15.040 --> 3:32:18.620 Government Reform Committee Chair Robert Garcia posted a two-word statement, 3:32:18.920 --> 3:32:23.440 lawyer up. And Oregon Senator Ron Wyden posted subpoenas. 3:32:24.020 --> 3:32:24.300 Yeah. 3:32:24.360 --> 3:32:24.880 Yeah. 3:32:24.940 --> 3:32:26.860 In a strong one word statement. 3:32:27.800 --> 3:32:28.439 Thanks, Ron. 3:32:29.640 --> 3:32:34.260 So in terms of where where this is going, I 3:32:34.300 --> 3:32:38.310 think there was a very interesting report that was released, 3:32:38.510 --> 3:32:41.070 I guess, two weeks ago, Monday now, right about a 3:32:41.129 --> 3:32:46.029 week before the election where. The House Judiciary Committee released 3:32:46.290 --> 3:32:51.640 a genuinely astonishing document in which they accused Donald Trump of, 3:32:51.810 --> 3:32:54.010 and I am just going to quote from this document here, 3:32:54.050 --> 3:32:56.709 which again was released by the Democrats on the House 3:32:56.730 --> 3:33:03.410 Judiciary Committee, like with their House Judiciary Committee official stuff 3:33:03.590 --> 3:33:03.890 on it. 3:33:04.190 --> 3:33:05.710 Seal. Yeah. 3:33:06.510 --> 3:33:06.830 Quote. 3:33:08.360 --> 3:33:11.209 Above all, the evidence we have seen, as shared in 3:33:11.230 --> 3:33:14.769 the accounts of 11 women, each described below, indicates that 3:33:14.850 --> 3:33:18.730 Trump abused, assaulted, and even raped numerous women alongside and 3:33:19.290 --> 3:33:23.190 in coordination with the most infamous sex trafficker in history. 3:33:23.209 --> 3:33:27.099 End quote. That most infamous sex trafficker in history would, 3:33:27.120 --> 3:33:31.980 of course, be Jeffrey Epstein, who they accused Trump of being, quote, 3:33:32.100 --> 3:33:36.520 a close friend and confidant of. alongside the sort of 3:33:36.680 --> 3:33:44.340 aforementioned allegations, they furthermore accused the administration of, I think, 3:33:44.470 --> 3:33:47.449 doing a thing we've all known they were very obviously doing, 3:33:47.610 --> 3:33:51.550 which is stonewalling the investigation into the release of the 3:33:51.629 --> 3:33:56.370 Epstein files to conceal alleged crimes. So this report itself, 3:33:56.770 --> 3:33:59.720 I think, was sort of planned as the, I guess, 3:33:59.740 --> 3:34:02.300 like October surprise that they ended up not really needing 3:34:02.340 --> 3:34:07.220 and was really not covered by the media at all. 3:34:08.740 --> 3:34:11.600 But the report itself is interesting because it's a combination 3:34:11.860 --> 3:34:15.920 of information that had already been publicly available, but also 3:34:16.780 --> 3:34:20.960 stuff that had not really been made public before. No, yeah, 3:34:20.980 --> 3:34:23.680 there's brand new revelations in this. 3:34:24.060 --> 3:34:25.990 Yeah, and this is. 3:34:26.000 --> 3:34:30.010 And I say this quite genuinely, this is one of 3:34:30.050 --> 3:34:32.709 the most astonishing documents ever. in the history of the 3:34:32.770 --> 3:34:36.879 United States. I cannot think of another time anything like 3:34:36.900 --> 3:34:39.820 this has ever happened. This is the members of the 3:34:39.940 --> 3:34:43.920 opposition party on the House Judiciary Committee accusing the president 3:34:43.959 --> 3:34:46.919 of the United States of participating in a sex trafficking 3:34:46.980 --> 3:34:50.260 ring and accusing the administration and the broader, the president 3:34:50.280 --> 3:34:54.350 and the broader administration of actively covering up those crimes. 3:34:54.890 --> 3:34:58.810 The allegations in here range from like bizarre redactions of 3:34:59.090 --> 3:35:00.629 the versions of the Epstein files that were released to 3:35:00.650 --> 3:35:03.640 the public, that would, you know, that sort of withheld 3:35:03.680 --> 3:35:10.340 information that would implicate close Trump associates. Most notably, Powell Zampolli, 3:35:10.760 --> 3:35:14.660 who was the global envoy for strategic partnership until October 3:35:14.959 --> 3:35:20.050 15th of this year. The documents accuse Zampolli of, you know, 3:35:20.090 --> 3:35:24.810 facilitating and participating in sex trafficking. And the Democrats accused 3:35:24.850 --> 3:35:27.950 Trump of concealing this and also of in their questioning 3:35:28.150 --> 3:35:30.270 of Ghislaine Maxwell, who they also mentioned in this was 3:35:30.290 --> 3:35:34.270 like sent to a like really cozy club fed prison 3:35:34.290 --> 3:35:37.950 by the administration. They accused the administration of deliberately steering 3:35:38.000 --> 3:35:42.460 interrogations of Ghislaine Maxwell away from discussing some very specific 3:35:42.520 --> 3:35:46.939 allegations that like Ghislaine brought up by herself. And then 3:35:46.959 --> 3:35:49.480 the interviewers like immediately were like, no, no, no, don't 3:35:49.520 --> 3:35:51.410 talk about that and move to run to a different thing. 3:35:52.150 --> 3:35:54.369 So the document itself, there's this sort of broad outline 3:35:54.430 --> 3:35:56.670 of the alleged sort of Trump Epstein operation and how 3:35:56.709 --> 3:36:00.020 they allegedly use modeling techniques. agencies to work a sex 3:36:00.040 --> 3:36:03.240 trafficking ring. There are sections about the alleged cover-up by 3:36:03.260 --> 3:36:06.390 the Trump administration, the DOJ, and the FBI. There's a 3:36:06.620 --> 3:36:12.330 lot of going through very harrowing accounts of specific allegations 3:36:12.470 --> 3:36:17.350 from different women. I'm going to quote from this at 3:36:17.370 --> 3:36:20.220 the very end of the document. Quote, The stakes of 3:36:20.240 --> 3:36:24.920 the Epstein-Maxwell conspiracy are monumental. Human trafficking, child abuse, and 3:36:25.000 --> 3:36:27.860 rape are among the most serious offenses our law recognizes. 3:36:28.800 --> 3:36:32.100 Government complicity and a cover-up to protect traffickers and rapists 3:36:32.160 --> 3:36:35.420 is criminal obstruction of justice and an intolerable offense against 3:36:35.480 --> 3:36:40.020 free society. Moreover, a president implicated in a sex trafficking 3:36:40.100 --> 3:36:44.050 operation is a president exposed, constantly vulnerable to blackmail by 3:36:44.150 --> 3:36:47.390 foreign governments and domestic criminals. The full extent of the 3:36:47.430 --> 3:36:50.310 President of the United States' involvement in criminal sex trafficking 3:36:51.170 --> 3:36:55.580 ring is inescapably to the utmost concern to Congress and 3:36:55.610 --> 3:36:59.000 the American people. And the document ends with calling for 3:36:59.020 --> 3:37:02.000 an investigation of Trump and other Trump allies and appointing 3:37:02.160 --> 3:37:06.260 a specific independent counsel to carry out the investigation. It 3:37:06.320 --> 3:37:09.199 is astonishing how little media coverage there was of this. 3:37:09.700 --> 3:37:11.050 A few sites... Yeah. 3:37:11.330 --> 3:37:12.850 You know, I mean, a few outlets like New York 3:37:12.900 --> 3:37:16.010 Times was like on blue sky defending their coverage of 3:37:16.090 --> 3:37:19.019 it in which they said that, you know, oh, yeah, 3:37:19.060 --> 3:37:23.780 there's a document released by the Democrats calling for an investigation. 3:37:24.459 --> 3:37:26.580 There are like rape allegations in this that like have 3:37:26.620 --> 3:37:28.539 not really been made public before. 3:37:29.240 --> 3:37:30.400 New. Yeah. 3:37:30.900 --> 3:37:34.900 And there was more coverage of Obama's joke about the 3:37:34.940 --> 3:37:39.420 cheesecake factory. than there was 100%. Yeah, about the Democrats 3:37:39.470 --> 3:37:42.289 of the House Judiciary Committee accusing the sitting president of 3:37:42.310 --> 3:37:44.550 the United States of being in league with Jeffrey Epstein. 3:37:45.990 --> 3:37:49.070 Which I think one of the things that it's kind 3:37:49.090 --> 3:37:51.789 of helpful to do is like, I don't know, we're 3:37:51.810 --> 3:37:54.030 in this era where everything is so insane that it's 3:37:54.590 --> 3:38:00.420 very difficult to step back and think about what that 3:38:00.440 --> 3:38:03.459 would mean in literally any other period of American history. 3:38:04.560 --> 3:38:05.439 And I think. 3:38:06.209 --> 3:38:09.250 One of the things that's become clear in the aftermath 3:38:09.690 --> 3:38:13.290 of this election is that this does look like the 3:38:13.430 --> 3:38:15.770 angle at which they're going to go after Trump, right? 3:38:16.030 --> 3:38:18.410 Insofar as we're doing a sort of bringing Trump to 3:38:18.450 --> 3:38:21.170 justice thing. It looks like this is going to be, 3:38:21.190 --> 3:38:23.330 this is like at least how the House Judiciary Committee 3:38:24.260 --> 3:38:26.119 is going to go after him. And I think this 3:38:26.620 --> 3:38:31.320 changes to some extent the dynamics of previous Democratic attempts 3:38:31.340 --> 3:38:33.119 to go after Trump, because it's a lot harder to 3:38:33.140 --> 3:38:34.959 sort of brush this stuff off in the way that 3:38:35.000 --> 3:38:39.429 you could do with something like Russiagate, where regular people 3:38:40.350 --> 3:38:41.930 are pissed off about Epstein. 3:38:42.190 --> 3:38:42.430 Yes. 3:38:42.790 --> 3:38:45.429 And like even Trump's base is pissed off about Epstein 3:38:45.450 --> 3:38:46.850 in a way that they didn't, you know, they could 3:38:46.870 --> 3:38:50.100 just not give a shit about Russiagate. And I think 3:38:50.540 --> 3:38:55.980 this being the angle of attack changes to some extent 3:38:56.040 --> 3:38:59.960 some of the dynamics around what the political contours of, 3:39:00.480 --> 3:39:03.350 of a like actual prosecution of the Trump administration is. 3:39:03.530 --> 3:39:06.670 And also now that these people are in control of 3:39:06.709 --> 3:39:10.730 the judiciary committee, there's going to be a lot more 3:39:10.770 --> 3:39:13.330 stuff being revealed. They are going to have control to 3:39:13.370 --> 3:39:15.890 a much larger extent of the investigation. If they can 3:39:15.970 --> 3:39:19.830 get their independent console, like the stuff that has come 3:39:19.930 --> 3:39:22.900 out from the Epstein files about Trump already has been 3:39:23.400 --> 3:39:26.430 unbelievably damaging to him. And again, The stuff that we're 3:39:26.470 --> 3:39:29.949 getting is the like redacted versions of it that that's 3:39:30.080 --> 3:39:31.920 the result of their sort of half ass cover up. 3:39:32.980 --> 3:39:34.760 The stuff that's going to be coming out of this, 3:39:35.140 --> 3:39:39.920 I genuinely can't even imagine. And so I think this 3:39:40.379 --> 3:39:43.529 is going to be in so far as the Democrats 3:39:43.570 --> 3:39:45.810 are like going after him. I think this is going 3:39:45.850 --> 3:39:47.750 to be the angle that they come at him for. 3:39:48.910 --> 3:39:51.970 We'll talk a little bit more about that and then 3:39:52.110 --> 3:40:08.330 one other non-election story. after this ad break. And we're back. 3:40:09.550 --> 3:40:13.090 So I wanted to talk a little bit about what 3:40:13.270 --> 3:40:17.150 I think needs to happen in order for this massive 3:40:17.190 --> 3:40:20.689 upset midterm victory to matter in the long term, right? 3:40:20.790 --> 3:40:22.930 Because this is good, and we've all spent our day 3:40:22.970 --> 3:40:26.779 or two celebrating what's happened. And I'm very happy that 3:40:26.840 --> 3:40:29.910 the Republicans got their asses kicked so badly. But we've 3:40:29.920 --> 3:40:33.050 also seen over and over again that like just beating 3:40:33.090 --> 3:40:35.150 them in an election, even like one that makes them 3:40:35.170 --> 3:40:39.330 very sad, does not bring long lasting victory, right? We 3:40:39.370 --> 3:40:42.200 remember 2020, you know, that seemed like a good election. 3:40:42.260 --> 3:40:44.629 It seemed like things were going to at least move 3:40:44.670 --> 3:40:46.980 away from the Trumpy stuff. And then it absolutely didn't. 3:40:47.020 --> 3:40:49.140 It got much worse in 2024. And part of why 3:40:49.160 --> 3:40:50.380 it got much more, big part of why it got 3:40:50.420 --> 3:40:53.680 much worse is the Biden administration did fucking nothing to 3:40:53.760 --> 3:40:56.400 punish Trump or any of his people for the crimes 3:40:56.420 --> 3:40:58.920 that they committed in office for January 6th, for any 3:40:58.940 --> 3:41:01.810 of that. Merrick Garland completely shat the bed and he 3:41:01.860 --> 3:41:04.250 was allowed to shit the bed because that was what 3:41:04.590 --> 3:41:07.210 Biden and the people in charge of the Democratic Party wanted. 3:41:07.270 --> 3:41:10.700 They did not want to risk going after Trump in 3:41:10.740 --> 3:41:14.280 a serious way and, you know, being seen as penalizing 3:41:14.320 --> 3:41:18.600 their political enemies. And that's become such a bugbear in 3:41:18.660 --> 3:41:21.080 liberal politics that like, well, that's just not what we 3:41:21.100 --> 3:41:23.420 do here in America. We don't punish, you know, we 3:41:23.440 --> 3:41:25.950 beat them in elections, but we don't go after. I 3:41:25.970 --> 3:41:28.269 think Hakeem Jeffries had a quote that was along the 3:41:28.310 --> 3:41:30.150 lines of like, the American people don't want. 3:41:30.670 --> 3:41:32.730 Us to get even. Yeah, they don't want. 3:41:32.670 --> 3:41:35.629 Us to get even. They want us to govern properly. 3:41:35.670 --> 3:41:38.910 And governing properly means- It's not even about getting even. 3:41:38.930 --> 3:41:43.170 It means punishing people for committing crimes against your society, right? 3:41:43.629 --> 3:41:46.119 The Trump administration, this is not just a case of, oh, well, 3:41:46.160 --> 3:41:49.320 these guys were bad at governing. They broke the law. 3:41:49.740 --> 3:41:54.720 Trump is repeatedly, like massively engaged in fraud to the 3:41:54.760 --> 3:41:57.550 tune of billions of dollars that he has stolen from 3:41:57.590 --> 3:41:59.850 taxpayers and taken in foreign bribes. 3:42:00.230 --> 3:42:00.949 We know this. 3:42:01.090 --> 3:42:05.890 It's well-documented. We know that under his leadership, the Department 3:42:05.910 --> 3:42:07.690 of Defense, the Department of War, whatever you want to 3:42:07.750 --> 3:42:10.840 fucking call them right now, have committed crimes overseas. The 3:42:10.879 --> 3:42:14.760 war against Iran is definitely illegal. There's a number of 3:42:14.840 --> 3:42:18.000 policies that fucking Hegseth has been responsible for that also 3:42:18.640 --> 3:42:22.130 should be seen as potentially criminal. In addition to this, 3:42:22.170 --> 3:42:24.830 you've just got the fact that there is a broader 3:42:24.890 --> 3:42:29.010 conspiracy among the tech elite. to get rid of democracy. 3:42:29.530 --> 3:42:31.350 And they've been pretty open about what they wanted to do, 3:42:31.370 --> 3:42:34.050 about the fact that they are looking to create a 3:42:34.170 --> 3:42:38.129 new governing structure that does not give regular people any 3:42:38.190 --> 3:42:40.650 sort of say, right? Peter Thiel is open about the 3:42:40.690 --> 3:42:43.510 fact that he wants dictatorships, a bunch of them, balkanizing 3:42:43.530 --> 3:42:47.100 the United States. All of these things shouldn't be allowed 3:42:47.240 --> 3:42:49.580 to just sort of sit there. One of the things 3:42:49.600 --> 3:42:51.539 that does really worry me is that there's been some 3:42:51.640 --> 3:42:53.480 evidence that I've come across in the last couple of 3:42:53.840 --> 3:42:56.240 days that prior to the midterms, some people in Silicon 3:42:56.260 --> 3:42:59.630 Valley were have been reaching out to Democrats, right? Because 3:42:59.650 --> 3:43:01.670 they can see which side their bread is buttered on. 3:43:01.690 --> 3:43:03.220 They know that things are like, that this was a 3:43:03.300 --> 3:43:06.200 bad bet and that's proven to be a bad bet 3:43:06.260 --> 3:43:09.820 by 2026. And they need some Democrats on their side 3:43:09.879 --> 3:43:12.640 because they want the government on their side. And like, 3:43:12.900 --> 3:43:14.480 there's a lot of things we can't allow. We can't 3:43:14.520 --> 3:43:17.600 allow Trump to get away without accountability. We can't allow 3:43:17.650 --> 3:43:20.090 his kids to get away without accountability. We can't allow 3:43:20.129 --> 3:43:23.370 people like Pete Hegseth to get away without accountability. And 3:43:23.390 --> 3:43:26.670 we can't allow Silicon Valley to get away without accountability, right? 3:43:26.720 --> 3:43:29.560 There need to be people in fucking cages, right? 3:43:29.680 --> 3:43:31.220 At the very least, as the. 3:43:31.180 --> 3:43:33.800 End result of this. And that's not something I think 3:43:33.820 --> 3:43:35.680 is going to happen in the next year or two. 3:43:35.820 --> 3:43:37.940 But what they can do, what Congress can do right now, 3:43:37.959 --> 3:43:41.039 the House has the ability to subpoena and investigate. Democrats 3:43:41.060 --> 3:43:43.740 have certainly enough of a lead in Congress that they 3:43:43.780 --> 3:43:46.119 can start, if they don't want to go for, and 3:43:46.170 --> 3:43:48.170 I can actually understand an argument for not trying to 3:43:48.230 --> 3:43:50.090 impeach Trump right now, given the fact that they tried 3:43:50.129 --> 3:43:52.070 a couple of times, although I kind of think they 3:43:52.090 --> 3:43:54.750 should try. But there are people they can't impeach, right? 3:43:54.770 --> 3:43:57.090 They can go after Hegseth, right? They can go after 3:43:57.110 --> 3:44:01.030 RFK Jr., right? And these are people that they should 3:44:01.110 --> 3:44:04.350 go after. And if I see the Democrats making Elon 3:44:04.400 --> 3:44:06.949 Musk's life a living hell, right? If I see the 3:44:07.000 --> 3:44:16.000 Democrats investigating Meta, investigating SpaceX, investigating fucking Anderson Horowitz, if 3:44:16.080 --> 3:44:18.820 I see stuff like that happening, if I see them 3:44:18.879 --> 3:44:22.109 at least trying to to force RFK Jr. and Hegseth 3:44:22.190 --> 3:44:24.269 out of office, if I see them trying to prosecute 3:44:24.629 --> 3:44:27.670 Hegseth once he gets forced out, I will at least 3:44:27.750 --> 3:44:31.910 feel like, okay, maybe they're showing the kind of guts 3:44:32.030 --> 3:44:38.250 they need for 2028 to actually lead to a conclusive victory, right? 3:44:38.610 --> 3:44:40.849 Because again, I don't think there's much of a possibility 3:44:41.470 --> 3:44:45.000 of punishing everyone who has broken the fucking law properly 3:44:45.379 --> 3:44:47.119 right now, but I do believe there is the potential 3:44:47.140 --> 3:44:49.660 that if they start right now, and that if they 3:44:49.700 --> 3:44:52.480 begin that process, the Republicans have a lot more of 3:44:52.540 --> 3:44:56.920 an ability to obfuscate and interfere with that right now 3:44:57.020 --> 3:44:59.090 while they still have the presidency, while they still have 3:44:59.110 --> 3:45:01.910 the Supreme Court. But if the Democrats start fighting now 3:45:02.090 --> 3:45:05.030 and build that habit of fighting, then I will have 3:45:05.050 --> 3:45:08.650 a lot more faith that should they gain the executive branch, 3:45:08.930 --> 3:45:12.390 that they will start taking efforts to extend that and 3:45:12.850 --> 3:45:14.930 to make sure that we're actually properly punishing these people. 3:45:14.950 --> 3:45:17.540 Because again, it's not about even vengeance, not that vengeance 3:45:17.580 --> 3:45:21.580 doesn't feel good, It's about self-defense. And the only real 3:45:21.640 --> 3:45:23.420 self-defense at this point is making sure that none of 3:45:23.459 --> 3:45:25.800 these people can ever get close to power again. And 3:45:25.840 --> 3:45:28.379 that doesn't just mean kicking them out of office. It 3:45:28.420 --> 3:45:32.050 means locking them up. It means doing worse in some 3:45:32.090 --> 3:45:35.690 cases because treason exists and there's a prescribed punishment for that. 3:45:36.190 --> 3:45:39.070 And it means taking away their fucking money, right? Especially 3:45:39.090 --> 3:45:40.510 when we come to the Silicon Valley people, it means 3:45:40.550 --> 3:45:44.160 taking away every fucking ill-gotten dime they've gotten. And I 3:45:44.220 --> 3:45:46.500 think this is something that you can frame this in 3:45:46.540 --> 3:45:49.310 a way that that does not sound like politics of 3:45:49.410 --> 3:45:52.750 vengeance to the average American conservative, right? Because that's not 3:45:52.930 --> 3:45:54.570 the message you want. There's too fucking many of them 3:45:54.590 --> 3:45:56.270 for one thing. That's not the message that's going to 3:45:56.310 --> 3:45:58.550 win anything. I think the message that will win anything 3:45:58.610 --> 3:46:00.490 is if you talk to both, you know, your liberal 3:46:00.530 --> 3:46:04.660 democratic progressive constituency and the chunk of, you know, conservatives 3:46:04.770 --> 3:46:07.520 and centrists who have voted off and on for Trump, 3:46:07.560 --> 3:46:09.640 but are not super committed far right and say, look, 3:46:10.290 --> 3:46:13.580 You are being hurt by these people. They have injured you. 3:46:13.640 --> 3:46:16.670 They have stolen from you. They have destroyed your livelihood. 3:46:17.190 --> 3:46:19.410 And we're going to not just hurt them for the 3:46:19.430 --> 3:46:21.129 sake of vengeance. We're going to hurt them to take 3:46:21.190 --> 3:46:24.210 their money and redistribute it to things that can help 3:46:24.250 --> 3:46:26.470 you and that can fix and repair the systems that 3:46:26.490 --> 3:46:29.570 have been hurting you. That's not just, again, how you 3:46:29.629 --> 3:46:33.010 punish your enemy. That's how you build a long lasting 3:46:33.110 --> 3:46:36.340 coalition by showing that like, no, no, no. Number one, 3:46:36.480 --> 3:46:38.640 I'm not just going after people who piss me off politically. 3:46:38.720 --> 3:46:41.000 I'm going after enemies of the Republic. I'm going after 3:46:41.040 --> 3:46:42.820 people who have hurt you and who have hurt. 3:46:42.840 --> 3:46:43.260 All of us. 3:46:43.740 --> 3:46:46.480 And I am going to stop them from being able 3:46:46.540 --> 3:46:48.780 to do that again. I'm going to punish them. I'm 3:46:48.820 --> 3:46:50.680 going to take what they've taken from you. And I'm 3:46:50.720 --> 3:46:53.100 going to give it back to the people. I think that's, 3:46:53.660 --> 3:46:55.920 That's a line that you can actually build a durable 3:46:56.080 --> 3:46:57.500 and loyal electorate over. 3:46:57.879 --> 3:46:58.099 Right. 3:46:58.540 --> 3:47:01.340 One thing the Trump he airs should have taught Democrats 3:47:01.560 --> 3:47:05.750 is that vengeance is really good politics. People like being 3:47:05.850 --> 3:47:08.430 promised that you're going to fuck up someone who's hurting them. 3:47:08.490 --> 3:47:10.390 The big thing that the Trump administration does, they just 3:47:10.490 --> 3:47:14.050 lied about who's causing the damage, about who's hurting Americans, 3:47:14.070 --> 3:47:16.709 about who's responsible for the problems in our society. They've 3:47:16.730 --> 3:47:20.370 blamed it on trans people, on migrants, on fucking Hollywood 3:47:20.430 --> 3:47:23.000 wokes or whatever. And that's all fucking nonsense. But there 3:47:23.120 --> 3:47:26.660 are people who are continuing to cause tremendous damage to 3:47:26.700 --> 3:47:28.939 the average person in this country and to people all 3:47:29.000 --> 3:47:32.100 around the world. And if you build a politics of 3:47:32.140 --> 3:47:35.840 vengeance against the people who are actually destroying life itself, 3:47:36.730 --> 3:47:39.550 I think that's good politics. And it's also, again, just 3:47:39.590 --> 3:47:40.550 basic self-defense. 3:47:41.470 --> 3:47:43.450 I think in terms of what the potential of this 3:47:43.490 --> 3:47:48.340 kind of politics is going forward– So one of the 3:47:48.400 --> 3:47:51.260 fascinating things about this election is that the Republicans were 3:47:51.300 --> 3:47:55.940 dealt this world historic ass kicking and the economy hasn't. 3:47:55.740 --> 3:47:58.010 Even collapsed yet. That's the thing. 3:47:58.629 --> 3:48:02.250 We have not seen the bottom of the support for 3:48:02.290 --> 3:48:02.750 these guys. 3:48:02.990 --> 3:48:03.209 Nope. 3:48:03.510 --> 3:48:07.769 We still haven't seen that yet because they haven't had 3:48:07.980 --> 3:48:11.300 their 2008 yet. And that is coming. The day in 3:48:11.340 --> 3:48:14.370 which the AI bubble bursts. is a thing that we 3:48:14.410 --> 3:48:16.890 are going to see. And if you are already set 3:48:16.930 --> 3:48:19.800 up and positioning yourselves as the people who are going 3:48:20.060 --> 3:48:23.140 after all of these Silicon Valley fascist freaks who have 3:48:23.160 --> 3:48:26.040 been immiserating every single person in this country except for 3:48:26.060 --> 3:48:30.520 themselves and their narrow cadre of allies, and you are 3:48:30.580 --> 3:48:35.610 already doing that when everything blows up, That is an 3:48:35.750 --> 3:48:39.070 actual path to like fundamentally changing the material balance of 3:48:39.110 --> 3:48:42.080 political forces in the US because those people are going 3:48:42.120 --> 3:48:45.280 to be– that is going to be the most vulnerable 3:48:45.340 --> 3:48:48.560 they have ever been like since they came to power 3:48:49.100 --> 3:48:50.879 is going to be them in the position of, oh 3:48:50.920 --> 3:48:53.020 my god, we just blew up the entire global economy. 3:48:53.390 --> 3:48:53.500 Yep. 3:48:53.700 --> 3:48:56.490 And if you don't do the thing that Obama did, right, 3:48:56.550 --> 3:48:58.630 which was Obama went to the bankers after 2008 and 3:48:58.930 --> 3:49:00.690 told them I'm the only thing standing between you and 3:49:00.709 --> 3:49:01.150 a guillotine. 3:49:01.600 --> 3:49:04.690 Don't stand between them and a guillotine. Yeah. 3:49:05.270 --> 3:49:05.530 Right. 3:49:06.630 --> 3:49:09.030 If you don't do that, and if you go after 3:49:09.070 --> 3:49:13.690 these people and destroy them, actually destroy them as a class, 3:49:14.290 --> 3:49:21.010 just completely annihilate their ability to materially affect politics, materially 3:49:21.050 --> 3:49:24.770 affect society, we can make this not happen again. 3:49:25.650 --> 3:49:25.830 Yep. 3:49:26.350 --> 3:49:27.130 Yep. 3:49:27.490 --> 3:49:29.870 There's a way to stop this, and part of it, 3:49:30.870 --> 3:49:33.740 is you have to fucking stomp these people out like 3:49:33.880 --> 3:49:35.940 embers on a fucking carpet, right? 3:49:36.400 --> 3:49:37.380 Yeah. 3:49:38.140 --> 3:49:40.240 Anyway, so that's what I'll be looking for. If I 3:49:40.260 --> 3:49:43.460 see any signs at all that the Democrats are, and 3:49:43.480 --> 3:49:45.090 I have seen some signs, at least in terms of 3:49:45.230 --> 3:49:47.910 what people who have been elected and reelected have been 3:49:47.950 --> 3:49:52.250 stating recently, there are Democrats who want to do this, right? Now- 3:49:52.870 --> 3:49:55.590 There's probably going to be a conflict within the Democratic 3:49:55.630 --> 3:49:56.970 Party about that. Oh, yeah. 3:49:57.030 --> 3:49:57.210 Right? 3:49:57.290 --> 3:49:59.030 Like, there's definitely going to be a conflict about, like, 3:49:59.090 --> 3:50:00.710 should we do? You can see that in what Hakeem 3:50:00.750 --> 3:50:03.930 Jeffries have said and how that sort of counters what, 3:50:04.130 --> 3:50:05.490 you know, people like Merkley have said. 3:50:06.150 --> 3:50:08.750 There is definitely a debate between someone like Jeffries or 3:50:08.770 --> 3:50:10.440 even some things like Tallarico has been saying. 3:50:10.480 --> 3:50:10.640 Yeah. 3:50:10.740 --> 3:50:13.880 Tallarico said that he's, quote, not interested in retribution, is 3:50:13.920 --> 3:50:18.420 more interested on delivering economically for Texans, but has also 3:50:18.440 --> 3:50:21.300 talked about, quote, rooting out corruption. Yep. And I think 3:50:21.340 --> 3:50:24.040 the corruption angle is really the the thing that can 3:50:24.180 --> 3:50:28.650 thread the affordability, cost of living stuff with the genuine 3:50:28.680 --> 3:50:31.710 need to punish the Trump administration and Trump himself for 3:50:31.910 --> 3:50:34.650 all of the stuff they've done the past two years. 3:50:36.070 --> 3:50:37.650 And this has been something we've been talking about a 3:50:37.970 --> 3:50:43.730 lot privately in our own reactions to the results. Because 3:50:44.130 --> 3:50:46.950 one of my first reactions after seeing the scale of 3:50:46.970 --> 3:50:49.480 the Democrats' victory, the worst case scenario for me was 3:50:49.500 --> 3:50:53.700 that if Democrats get this huge mandate... And then don't 3:50:53.720 --> 3:50:56.290 really do anything material with it. If they just kind 3:50:56.310 --> 3:51:03.210 of coast on bullshit, performative anti-Trumpism, doing endless hearings or 3:51:03.230 --> 3:51:06.830 kind of impeachments that go nowhere. Because Democrats do really 3:51:06.870 --> 3:51:08.910 need to go after Trump, right? And they do need 3:51:08.970 --> 3:51:11.950 to shatter the mega movement. And they need to go 3:51:12.010 --> 3:51:15.780 after this federal administration, DHS, ICE, Department of War, right? 3:51:15.820 --> 3:51:18.200 And they need to do that while setting things up 3:51:19.060 --> 3:51:21.620 to take power in 2028 to then send even more 3:51:21.640 --> 3:51:24.630 of these fucks to prison. But I think this does 3:51:24.670 --> 3:51:29.050 have to be, I think, in tandem with also doing 3:51:29.070 --> 3:51:32.310 the things they campaigned on, which is mostly on cost 3:51:32.330 --> 3:51:35.650 of living and affordability. Because I think if they don't 3:51:36.010 --> 3:51:39.780 at least put a focus on that, especially in their messaging, 3:51:39.800 --> 3:51:42.020 but also that needs to be built on them actually 3:51:42.040 --> 3:51:45.340 doing real things. If that is not their focus, then 3:51:45.360 --> 3:51:48.420 I think anything they do to hurt Trump could be 3:51:48.460 --> 3:51:50.960 seen as just like posturing. It could be seen as 3:51:51.600 --> 3:51:54.930 just trying to please liberal elites rather than focusing on 3:51:54.950 --> 3:51:56.910 the concerns of people who cannot pay rent next month 3:51:56.950 --> 3:51:59.910 or can't afford groceries. So it is something that needs to, 3:51:59.950 --> 3:52:04.490 I think, be done carefully. And the anti-corruption aspect is, 3:52:04.950 --> 3:52:06.980 I think, the perfect way to tie these things together. 3:52:08.020 --> 3:52:10.020 Because the anti-corruption angle is a really easy way to 3:52:10.080 --> 3:52:14.160 talk about these economic and class issues, which is directly 3:52:14.200 --> 3:52:16.000 connected to all of the ways that Trump has been 3:52:16.020 --> 3:52:18.810 engaging in corruption to help his billionaire friends, all the 3:52:18.830 --> 3:52:22.600 ways that the Trump sons have been doing insane, like 3:52:23.080 --> 3:52:26.720 insane corruption, right? Stuff that puts the Hunter Biden shit 3:52:26.800 --> 3:52:30.410 to like absolute shame. Jared Kushner, all the ways that 3:52:30.930 --> 3:52:34.170 companies have been siphoning tons of money sent into DHS 3:52:34.190 --> 3:52:36.870 to set up these like private prisons. Like there's the 3:52:36.930 --> 3:52:39.590 level of corruption. We haven't even reported on it enough, frankly, 3:52:40.050 --> 3:52:41.890 on this show. But the level of corruption in the 3:52:41.910 --> 3:52:45.010 Trump administration is absolutely wild. And that's a very easy 3:52:45.050 --> 3:52:47.610 way to tie affordability and cost of living to the 3:52:47.670 --> 3:52:50.180 need to hold. Yeah. Trump accountable. 3:52:50.360 --> 3:52:53.430 And I think beyond that, you also tie in the 3:52:53.490 --> 3:52:57.970 fact that fraud and scams have gotten so much massively worse. 3:52:58.150 --> 3:53:02.490 And Silicon Valley is deeply tied. Every AI company is 3:53:02.530 --> 3:53:05.380 complicit in massive fraud simply by making these models that 3:53:05.430 --> 3:53:09.080 are used to commit fraud on a massive scale. Beyond that, 3:53:09.140 --> 3:53:12.679 every social media company is complicit in massive fraud, particularly Meta. 3:53:13.260 --> 3:53:15.650 And then just beyond that, MLMs are the backbone in 3:53:15.670 --> 3:53:18.130 a lot of ways of Republican fundraising, or one of 3:53:18.170 --> 3:53:19.910 the major backbones of Republican fundraising. 3:53:19.950 --> 3:53:22.050 Well, Democratic fundraising too, unfortunately. 3:53:22.950 --> 3:53:25.190 And Democratic fundraising, unfortunately too, which is why it's going 3:53:25.210 --> 3:53:27.390 to be hard to fucking go after them. But we 3:53:27.430 --> 3:53:30.210 need to, that's one of the fucking reservoirs of fascism 3:53:30.250 --> 3:53:32.500 in our goddamn society, and we need to burn them out. 3:53:33.620 --> 3:53:35.660 No, I think there's a way to do all that 3:53:36.120 --> 3:53:38.400 that doesn't get caught in this sort of like, these 3:53:38.420 --> 3:53:41.480 ideas of like revenge or retribution, but just justice and accountability, 3:53:41.500 --> 3:53:44.070 which I think people will be able to buy into more, 3:53:44.390 --> 3:53:48.110 especially if it's coupled with delivering on economic issues. And 3:53:48.140 --> 3:53:51.060 this is something I think out of everyone, El-Sayed has 3:53:51.120 --> 3:53:54.340 kind of expressed this the most clearly in response to 3:53:54.380 --> 3:53:56.620 a question on Morning Joe. He laid out how to 3:53:56.660 --> 3:54:00.620 pursue efforts to hold the Trump admin accountable from investigations 3:54:00.670 --> 3:54:04.030 into what led to the war in Iran. And how 3:54:04.430 --> 3:54:06.800 Doge totally destroyed the FDA. 3:54:07.120 --> 3:54:10.080 We need to align everything we're doing with the goal 3:54:10.250 --> 3:54:12.910 of addressing the immediate pain that people are feeling at 3:54:12.950 --> 3:54:16.980 the pump. at the grocery store in their lives. So 3:54:17.200 --> 3:54:19.360 there are investigations that are worth having. I want to 3:54:19.380 --> 3:54:22.550 understand exactly what led into the war in Iran. I 3:54:22.590 --> 3:54:24.210 think we need to understand exactly what that was. 3:54:24.270 --> 3:54:24.490 Why? 3:54:24.630 --> 3:54:27.610 Because it's costing us dearly in terms of the lives 3:54:27.650 --> 3:54:30.030 of our service men and women, in terms of the 3:54:30.050 --> 3:54:32.690 price of gas, in terms of the price of groceries. Similarly, 3:54:32.850 --> 3:54:34.990 you know, more niche story, but one that I've been 3:54:35.030 --> 3:54:37.560 paying attention to for a lot of reasons. In Michigan, 3:54:37.580 --> 3:54:38.900 we were dodging lettuce all summer. 3:54:39.560 --> 3:54:39.840 Why? 3:54:39.900 --> 3:54:43.360 Because of a cyclosporiasis outbreak. And you think about that 3:54:43.580 --> 3:54:45.940 and you're like, OK, so what decisions were made to 3:54:46.020 --> 3:54:48.360 doge away the part of the FDA that is supposed 3:54:48.380 --> 3:54:49.259 to be the FDA? 3:54:49.340 --> 3:54:49.540 Yeah. 3:54:49.600 --> 3:54:52.420 Like make sure you're not eating lettuce that someone has defiled. 3:54:52.920 --> 3:54:53.120 Right. 3:54:53.310 --> 3:54:55.070 And then we ate, you know, people were eating that 3:54:55.070 --> 3:55:00.210 8000 illnesses and the CDC's count was 2000 cases behind 3:55:00.270 --> 3:55:02.750 the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services count. I 3:55:02.790 --> 3:55:05.430 want to understand exactly what happened there so we can 3:55:05.470 --> 3:55:08.410 set up legislation to solve the problem. So long as 3:55:08.450 --> 3:55:11.070 people see our politics as being about this red versus 3:55:11.110 --> 3:55:14.780 blue retribution game, all of us collectively lose. If you 3:55:14.860 --> 3:55:18.320 are focused on addressing the ways that bad decisions were 3:55:18.360 --> 3:55:20.460 made so that you can solve them and then you 3:55:20.520 --> 3:55:23.700 solve them, that's where I think accountability has to stand. 3:55:23.880 --> 3:55:27.020 It's funny because my kind of worst case scenario reaction 3:55:27.560 --> 3:55:31.580 was that, you know, Dems will just coast on performative anti-anti-Trumpism. 3:55:32.040 --> 3:55:34.820 And if anything, I think pressure needs to be applied 3:55:34.920 --> 3:55:37.100 now maybe a bit more in the other direction. Now 3:55:37.120 --> 3:55:42.230 that I'm seeing more statements come out from senators-elect, there's 3:55:42.270 --> 3:55:45.250 a lot of focus on really trying to deliver on 3:55:45.270 --> 3:55:47.890 the affordability thing. And frankly, there might actually need to 3:55:47.930 --> 3:55:53.190 be some more outside pressure on really, really, really sticking 3:55:53.250 --> 3:55:57.330 it to Trump, DHS, Department of War. But I think 3:55:58.070 --> 3:55:59.450 there is a way to do both these things at 3:55:59.490 --> 3:56:02.910 the same time. I think my other really big concern 3:56:03.170 --> 3:56:06.090 is that one of the structural problems of the Democratic 3:56:06.130 --> 3:56:08.800 Party is that in a similar way to. 3:56:10.560 --> 3:56:13.780 The old nationalist party of China, the Kuomintang, the KMT, 3:56:14.400 --> 3:56:18.190 which was a party that had both Mao in it 3:56:18.710 --> 3:56:22.990 and also a huge block of China's landlords at the 3:56:23.030 --> 3:56:23.570 same time. 3:56:23.590 --> 3:56:23.910 Yeah. 3:56:24.730 --> 3:56:28.520 Where like you have like the most, like you have, 3:56:28.560 --> 3:56:30.000 you have the guy who is going to kill all 3:56:30.020 --> 3:56:32.560 the landlords and the landlords in the same party. And 3:56:32.580 --> 3:56:35.460 this is sort of the problem with, like with, with, with, 3:56:35.480 --> 3:56:37.750 you know, they're saying like delivering on affordability and the 3:56:37.770 --> 3:56:40.010 Republicans are saying this now, but like, OK, how are 3:56:40.030 --> 3:56:43.490 you actually doing that? Because the thing is, right, the 3:56:43.570 --> 3:56:46.670 people who the people who are making everything expensive and 3:56:46.690 --> 3:56:48.030 the people who are making it so you can't pay 3:56:48.070 --> 3:56:50.720 your rent in the grocery stores, like all the people 3:56:50.740 --> 3:56:53.860 who own those businesses, all of the people who like, 3:56:53.880 --> 3:56:56.140 you know, people who are driving rents up like they 3:56:56.180 --> 3:56:58.840 all make money and they're all friends of a bunch 3:56:58.880 --> 3:57:01.620 of people in the Democratic Party. And so I think 3:57:01.680 --> 3:57:03.120 I think this is the other thing we're going to hit, 3:57:03.170 --> 3:57:06.550 which is there's going to be a battle over like okay, 3:57:06.570 --> 3:57:08.410 so we've all agreed we want price to go down, 3:57:08.430 --> 3:57:11.250 but how do you actually do that? What are the 3:57:11.350 --> 3:57:14.710 actual balance of class forces here? Because you're dealing with 3:57:14.770 --> 3:57:17.180 a situation where you have a movement that is based 3:57:17.300 --> 3:57:22.380 on working class anger that has delivered this victory, but 3:57:22.400 --> 3:57:26.300 then you have a party that is also, to a really, 3:57:26.340 --> 3:57:30.510 really significant extent, a representation of the people who are 3:57:30.650 --> 3:57:33.650 fucking over all of these workers, right? And that is, 3:57:34.310 --> 3:57:38.000 welcome to like the new terrain of class struggle, the 3:57:38.120 --> 3:57:38.679 21st century. 3:57:39.260 --> 3:57:41.300 No, I mean, it's exciting that we're even having these 3:57:41.360 --> 3:57:44.600 conversations more openly in a way that maybe we weren't 3:57:44.600 --> 3:57:47.420 10 years ago. Something that like, you know, a lot 3:57:47.440 --> 3:57:50.090 of candidates did, or at least Tallarico did campaign on 3:57:50.150 --> 3:57:53.730 things like universal pre-K. Lots of candidates campaigned on ending, 3:57:54.110 --> 3:57:57.050 you know, wars, data center moratoriums. There's these sort of 3:57:57.070 --> 3:57:59.590 like reforms, right? Which will kind of chip away at 3:57:59.660 --> 3:58:03.500 certain things. But there are these like much larger... issues 3:58:04.260 --> 3:58:06.240 and tackling corporate power is going to be, you know, 3:58:06.300 --> 3:58:09.600 bigger than just delivering universal childcare. Right. And that's something, 3:58:09.640 --> 3:58:12.340 both those things are things that the Tallarico campaign was, 3:58:13.200 --> 3:58:14.880 was based on. That was kind of his, like his 3:58:14.980 --> 3:58:18.660 initial kind of core plank was just like anti-corporatism. And 3:58:18.780 --> 3:58:20.480 once you're in office, you get hit with a lot 3:58:20.500 --> 3:58:23.540 of pressures that you don't get when you're just, you're 3:58:23.560 --> 3:58:26.020 just campaigning. And that type of stuff usually slides away. 3:58:26.070 --> 3:58:29.190 The fact that Bernie is still kicking after, uh, 10 3:58:29.190 --> 3:58:31.610 billion years is, uh, It's kind of shocking in a 3:58:31.630 --> 3:58:35.070 certain way. Obama ran on getting rid of NAFTA. 3:58:35.090 --> 3:58:35.530 Yeah, yeah, yeah. 3:58:35.650 --> 3:58:38.190 And then spent his entire time in office, like trying 3:58:38.210 --> 3:58:41.430 to pass war-free trade deals. And then his solution to 3:58:41.430 --> 3:58:44.060 2008 was to do robo-signing and just have the banks 3:58:44.160 --> 3:58:47.160 literally steal people's houses. Like, yeah, this is the next fight. 3:58:47.680 --> 3:58:49.580 This is the next scripted episode I am like working on. 3:58:49.620 --> 3:58:52.100 It's kind of is on this question because this doesn't 3:58:52.140 --> 3:58:54.320 mean that we just have to, you know, pray and 3:58:54.470 --> 3:58:57.270 hope and, you know, tweet blue sky post hard enough. 3:58:58.110 --> 3:59:00.450 to keep Democrats to their promises or get them to 3:59:00.510 --> 3:59:04.720 fight capital. No, that requires real work and painful, painful 3:59:04.760 --> 3:59:06.600 work that we might not see the fruits of for 3:59:06.620 --> 3:59:09.020 a while. But I think there is momentum here and 3:59:09.550 --> 3:59:12.870 that momentum needs to continue. And there's even something, you know, 3:59:12.890 --> 3:59:15.270 this is more of like a non-reformist reform, but something 3:59:15.310 --> 3:59:17.350 like the Protect the Right to Organize Act, which is 3:59:17.390 --> 3:59:21.450 in the Senate, is gaining support. Even if that passes, right, 3:59:21.470 --> 3:59:25.010 that will strengthen the ability for workers to unionize in 3:59:25.090 --> 3:59:28.540 so many ways. Yeah. Under tons of anti-union legislation from 3:59:28.560 --> 3:59:31.620 the past 70 years. And I think there is, you know, 3:59:31.760 --> 3:59:35.220 specific targeted things we can push for. to start kind 3:59:35.240 --> 3:59:39.240 of rolling this boulder further and further. But no, it's 3:59:39.260 --> 3:59:41.220 not going to be easy. It's not going to be quick. 3:59:41.540 --> 3:59:44.900 Do you want to, I guess, close by talking about 3:59:45.120 --> 3:59:48.960 some ways that people are doing things? Not in the 3:59:49.020 --> 3:59:50.780 electoral sense. 3:59:50.820 --> 3:59:54.310 So let's talk about alternate ways to remove a president 3:59:54.360 --> 3:59:55.050 from office. 3:59:56.170 --> 3:59:56.500 Yes. 3:59:56.520 --> 4:00:00.670 Now, while the US was having a very nice election, 4:00:01.330 --> 4:00:03.110 a bunch of other places in the world were doing 4:00:03.210 --> 4:00:07.730 other things. So let's begin with Paraguay in our dispatches 4:00:07.750 --> 4:00:10.510 from a world in revolt. So we have talked a 4:00:10.570 --> 4:00:15.050 lot on this show about protests and the sort of 4:00:15.130 --> 4:00:18.330 uprisings that we've been seeing, how they've been this accumulation 4:00:18.370 --> 4:00:21.410 of economic grievances, right? There are these things where there 4:00:21.470 --> 4:00:27.030 are people's anger over worsening economic conditions and decades-long neoliberal 4:00:27.050 --> 4:00:29.910 dismantlement of the education system. Eventually, a single event happens 4:00:29.930 --> 4:00:33.500 and it boils over into a mass protest. Now, While 4:00:33.540 --> 4:00:35.740 we've been talking about this, I said a few weeks ago, 4:00:35.800 --> 4:00:38.390 we have not seen the second kind of mass uprising yet, 4:00:38.860 --> 4:00:40.770 which is the kind of mass uprising sparked by the 4:00:40.830 --> 4:00:43.970 instant collapse of a national economy that either increases the 4:00:43.990 --> 4:00:46.330 price of bread by 300% or makes everyone unable to 4:00:46.470 --> 4:00:50.090 access their money. And folks, we have our first the 4:00:50.150 --> 4:00:56.590 economy collapsed uprising that has very quickly removed the president 4:00:56.630 --> 4:01:00.370 of Paraguay. So let's talk about what's actually happening in 4:01:00.450 --> 4:01:06.010 Paraguay and how Right-wing President Santiago Pena is just gone. 4:01:07.090 --> 4:01:09.210 This is actually a very recent update. As of Thursday, 4:01:09.250 --> 4:01:15.300 November 5th, he just resigned. So massive, massive protests engulfed 4:01:15.360 --> 4:01:19.560 Paraguay after a bank called Unil Bank, which is used 4:01:19.660 --> 4:01:24.300 by 60% of the population of Paraguay, was taken over 4:01:24.360 --> 4:01:26.500 by the central bank because they didn't have enough money 4:01:26.540 --> 4:01:29.200 to cover their reserves. Which is to say they didn't 4:01:29.220 --> 4:01:32.780 have enough money to cover the amount of money that 4:01:32.880 --> 4:01:36.610 everyone had put into the bank. This means that the 4:01:36.830 --> 4:01:39.030 bank is just sort of gone now, right? All the 4:01:39.070 --> 4:01:42.320 branches are shuttered. Their phone trees are down. And this 4:01:42.380 --> 4:01:48.120 means that an unfathomable percentage of Paraguay's population was left 4:01:48.260 --> 4:01:50.480 simply unable to withdraw their money from a bank. 4:01:50.840 --> 4:01:54.450 Famously, something that never leads to anything bad happening. Or 4:01:55.190 --> 4:01:58.210 anything that leads to a general revolt. However bad you 4:01:58.250 --> 4:02:00.630 think this is, it is so much worse than that. Like, 4:02:01.310 --> 4:02:03.650 UNEO manages the state pension fund. 4:02:03.670 --> 4:02:07.410 It manages the healthcare fund that, like, state workers and 4:02:07.450 --> 4:02:09.170 I think other workers, too, pay into. 4:02:09.190 --> 4:02:09.270 Yeah. 4:02:10.430 --> 4:02:15.170 And it also manages the fund that's paying for Portugal's 4:02:15.270 --> 4:02:16.170 dam system. 4:02:17.500 --> 4:02:18.600 It is a nightmare. 4:02:19.500 --> 4:02:24.100 And partially, so UNEO had been a bank before that, 4:02:24.120 --> 4:02:26.880 but it had sort of rebranded around the time that 4:02:26.980 --> 4:02:30.300 right-wing president Santiago Pena came to power. Pena himself is 4:02:30.360 --> 4:02:35.060 a longtime baker and financier who came under fire last 4:02:35.100 --> 4:02:37.760 year for holding a bunch of shares in this bank. 4:02:38.820 --> 4:02:42.960 and then also appointing the head of UNEO to be 4:02:43.000 --> 4:02:45.180 the head of the central bank, which is the bank 4:02:45.200 --> 4:02:47.280 that's supposed to be regulating UNEO. 4:02:47.840 --> 4:02:51.010 And they put the president in charge of the central bank. 4:02:52.530 --> 4:02:55.950 This has gone exactly as well as you would expect 4:02:56.010 --> 4:02:57.430 it to, and by as well as you would expect 4:02:57.490 --> 4:03:00.330 it to. I mean, UNEO then turned around and loaned 4:03:00.390 --> 4:03:02.810 tens of millions of dollars to businesses of friends of 4:03:02.830 --> 4:03:06.940 the bank owners. And these loans just went belly up 4:03:07.000 --> 4:03:07.860 because obviously they were not. 4:03:07.800 --> 4:03:08.360 Getting paid back. 4:03:09.000 --> 4:03:13.240 And so, you know, the bank, like really, really far 4:03:13.280 --> 4:03:15.400 below the mandatory reserve limit, which is the amount of 4:03:15.480 --> 4:03:17.730 money that you're just legally required to have on hand 4:03:18.210 --> 4:03:19.910 so that you don't get into a situation where people 4:03:19.930 --> 4:03:20.630 try to take their money out. 4:03:20.630 --> 4:03:21.290 You can't pay them. 4:03:22.540 --> 4:03:25.280 They were also lying about their debts and assets. And 4:03:25.310 --> 4:03:26.710 there's a bunch of things that they were claiming were 4:03:26.830 --> 4:03:30.090 assets that are actually just, they owe people money. So 4:03:30.410 --> 4:03:32.550 the central bank of Paraguay seizes control of the bank 4:03:32.570 --> 4:03:34.350 because they're like, oh my God, you're under the, you're 4:03:34.470 --> 4:03:36.650 massively under the reserve limit. You're going underwater. They look 4:03:36.670 --> 4:03:38.410 at the books and it's even worse than they thought 4:03:38.450 --> 4:03:41.970 it was. And they basically liquidate the bank and are like, 4:03:42.150 --> 4:03:43.610 oh my God, we have to sell off all this 4:03:43.650 --> 4:03:46.330 bank's assets to try to like give people their money back. 4:03:47.030 --> 4:03:49.990 But this has caused another crisis where the government was like, ah, 4:03:50.030 --> 4:03:51.250 the bank system is going to be fine. We're going 4:03:51.270 --> 4:03:53.150 to move all your people who only have your money 4:03:53.170 --> 4:03:56.060 in this bank to other banks. But that meant that 4:03:56.080 --> 4:03:58.600 like 250,000 people were trying to pull their money out 4:03:58.940 --> 4:04:02.520 of other banks, which caused like some minor crises in 4:04:02.580 --> 4:04:06.300 those banks. You know, this obviously resulted in massive protests, 4:04:06.860 --> 4:04:10.910 a bunch of people lighting stuff on fire, etc. Pena 4:04:10.990 --> 4:04:13.290 resigned before he could be impeached. There was an impeachment 4:04:13.310 --> 4:04:15.320 vote coming. He also resigned before he could be hung 4:04:15.340 --> 4:04:18.860 from a lamppost. It's real bad. This is, I think, 4:04:18.900 --> 4:04:21.220 an interesting case of the kind of personalized corruption that 4:04:21.240 --> 4:04:24.240 we've been talking about that, you know, with the Trump regime, 4:04:24.280 --> 4:04:26.890 with their connections to big tech and with their connections to, 4:04:26.910 --> 4:04:30.330 you know, like the Saudis and the UAE and all 4:04:30.350 --> 4:04:34.990 of these kinds of different tech and finance monopolies where, 4:04:35.290 --> 4:04:37.090 you know, you have these regimes that are deeply connected 4:04:37.150 --> 4:04:40.670 to extremely risky loans in the finance sector. And then 4:04:40.690 --> 4:04:42.370 it's just, you know, the entire situation blows up in 4:04:42.390 --> 4:04:44.570 their faces. And I think we're going to see a 4:04:44.630 --> 4:04:46.950 lot more of like this specific kind of uprising going 4:04:46.990 --> 4:04:50.690 forward where Pena is out so fast, right? I think 4:04:50.710 --> 4:04:53.190 he lasted like five days of protests before he just 4:04:53.330 --> 4:04:56.780 had to resign because it was his guys who he 4:04:56.840 --> 4:05:00.860 put in power from his specific domain of expertise as 4:05:00.900 --> 4:05:03.420 a banker who just blew up the entire economy. I 4:05:03.440 --> 4:05:04.880 think we're going to see a lot more of like 4:05:04.960 --> 4:05:07.700 this kind of uprising going forward. And yeah, you can 4:05:07.740 --> 4:05:11.480 remove presidents through ways that aren't elections. And to sort 4:05:11.500 --> 4:05:13.680 of close things out here, let's talk about another thing 4:05:13.700 --> 4:05:18.920 that's not an election, and let's talk about, finally, that 4:05:19.240 --> 4:05:22.920 one-million-person Wildcat general strike that I teased at the beginning 4:05:22.970 --> 4:05:28.030 of the episode. And that strike is going on in Bangladesh. 4:05:28.810 --> 4:05:31.530 Bangladesh is home to one of the world's largest and 4:05:31.590 --> 4:05:35.490 most important textile sectors. This is also a very kind 4:05:35.550 --> 4:05:41.880 of low-wage, high-labor textile industry. And it is, you know, 4:05:41.980 --> 4:05:45.000 it has been one of the engines of the Bangladeshi economy, 4:05:45.040 --> 4:05:46.440 which is to say that it is an engine of 4:05:46.520 --> 4:05:52.450 absolutely heinous exploitation. People may be familiar with the horrifying 4:05:52.550 --> 4:05:57.170 Rana Plaza collapse, which killed over a thousand people in 2013. 4:05:57.170 --> 4:05:59.190 And a lot of people who were killed were garment 4:05:59.230 --> 4:06:01.280 workers who were working at one of the five garment 4:06:01.320 --> 4:06:04.700 factories that was contained in this giant skyscraper high-rise thing 4:06:04.720 --> 4:06:07.580 that collapsed. You know, this is also a sector where 4:06:07.600 --> 4:06:10.580 the buildings frequently light on fire and kill a hundred people. 4:06:10.600 --> 4:06:16.330 It is brutal and devastating. And that has led to 4:06:16.470 --> 4:06:20.340 a really quite militant labor movement, but not a labor 4:06:20.380 --> 4:06:23.680 movement in the way that you see it in a 4:06:23.700 --> 4:06:25.860 lot of other places. It is a lot of wildcat strikes. 4:06:25.960 --> 4:06:28.960 It is a lot of like kind of old school, 4:06:29.040 --> 4:06:31.620 like stuff you would say in like the 1800s in 4:06:31.650 --> 4:06:33.290 the US of just like, fuck it, we're all walking 4:06:33.310 --> 4:06:34.450 off the job and we're all going to go fight 4:06:34.470 --> 4:06:39.810 our employers because they're killing us. So as of like Thursday, 4:06:39.870 --> 4:06:43.950 November 5th, people seem to be going back to work 4:06:43.990 --> 4:06:47.570 to some extent. But there was almost a million workers 4:06:48.210 --> 4:06:51.070 either on strike or unable to go to work because 4:06:51.110 --> 4:06:55.690 the strike had closed 500 of Bangladesh's 2,500 garment factories. Now, 4:06:55.850 --> 4:06:59.710 the government has been forced to appoint a minimum wage board. 4:06:59.990 --> 4:07:03.800 The specific demand here is they want to pay increase– 4:07:04.300 --> 4:07:06.320 they want the minimum wage, which a lot of these 4:07:06.340 --> 4:07:09.940 workers are minimum wage workers– to go from $ 100 a 4:07:10.380 --> 4:07:15.250 month to $ 250 a month because of cost of living increases. 4:07:15.590 --> 4:07:19.470 And like, this is a sector of 4 million people. 4:07:19.990 --> 4:07:21.790 This is a sector that is the size of like 4:07:21.830 --> 4:07:25.610 a small country. And these are people making $ 100 a month. 4:07:25.650 --> 4:07:29.060 They are working 50 to 60 hour weeks. And if 4:07:29.300 --> 4:07:32.340 you want to work out whether or not that's more 4:07:32.540 --> 4:07:35.920 than the $ 2... And like 50 cents a day, that's 4:07:35.930 --> 4:07:39.040 supposed to be the absolute poverty indicator. You can you 4:07:39.060 --> 4:07:45.120 can work that out yourself. It's it's horrifically bleak. And 4:07:45.500 --> 4:07:50.040 they're asking for something that's so far from the American 4:07:50.060 --> 4:07:53.520 minimum wage that it breaks my fucking heart. Like they're 4:07:53.560 --> 4:07:56.300 talking about like, you know, maybe like ten dollars a day, 4:07:56.760 --> 4:07:57.840 like not an hour a day. 4:07:58.320 --> 4:07:58.480 Right. 4:07:58.540 --> 4:08:00.260 And obviously purchasing power is stronger there. 4:08:00.280 --> 4:08:01.230 It's not that much stronger there. 4:08:02.760 --> 4:08:04.940 It's weird because they're largely described as protests, but if 4:08:04.980 --> 4:08:06.940 you read the actual accounts of what's happening, it's like, no, 4:08:06.970 --> 4:08:08.790 this is a general strike and people setting up roadblocks. 4:08:09.750 --> 4:08:12.190 It's still in a situation where there's been very heavy 4:08:12.230 --> 4:08:15.410 police repression. We're still in a situation where these could spark. 4:08:15.110 --> 4:08:15.870 Up at any time. 4:08:16.210 --> 4:08:19.220 So the government said it was going to do this 4:08:19.300 --> 4:08:21.780 wage board thing to look at the minimum wage, but 4:08:21.800 --> 4:08:26.060 they haven't committed to raising the wage. And they're trying 4:08:26.080 --> 4:08:28.360 to set this for December when they're hoping that these 4:08:28.400 --> 4:08:30.820 protests will have calmed down. and that the workers in 4:08:30.840 --> 4:08:32.700 this strike will have gone back to work. We're going 4:08:32.740 --> 4:08:35.840 to see how this goes. And finally, we're going to 4:08:35.880 --> 4:08:39.080 talk about, briefly, I want to mention, this is probably 4:08:39.100 --> 4:08:40.540 going to get covered more next week, which is that 4:08:40.560 --> 4:08:44.040 there's one more general strike in France, which is an official, 4:08:44.160 --> 4:08:46.500 I think it's a one-day general strike that was called 4:08:46.620 --> 4:08:50.550 by a bunch of the sort of nominally left-wing unions. 4:08:50.670 --> 4:08:53.750 I say nominally left-wing because you could do an entire 4:08:53.790 --> 4:08:56.630 doctoral thesis on every single time that the UGC has 4:08:56.670 --> 4:09:01.580 specifically prevented, like, the world from being a better place. 4:09:02.240 --> 4:09:04.960 But yeah, the estimate, this is happening like as kind 4:09:05.000 --> 4:09:08.060 of as we speak, the estimates I think are like 4:09:08.060 --> 4:09:11.280 600,000 people in the streets. The unions are saying 1.3 million, 4:09:11.440 --> 4:09:15.250 which is conceivable. This is obviously like, this is another 4:09:15.270 --> 4:09:17.750 sort of like cost of living strike that's also being 4:09:17.830 --> 4:09:20.330 done in sort of concert with the student movement. The 4:09:20.350 --> 4:09:23.220 student movement has, you know, they're still in the streets fighting. 4:09:24.420 --> 4:09:28.450 We're going to see to what extent this can be mobilized. 4:09:28.990 --> 4:09:32.210 Somewhat counterintuitively, Macron has been trying to make sure that 4:09:32.290 --> 4:09:35.250 protests are sponsored by unions, because the unions are people 4:09:35.290 --> 4:09:37.190 he can negotiate with to get people out of the streets. 4:09:37.750 --> 4:09:39.500 And so he's been attempting to pass measures to make 4:09:39.560 --> 4:09:42.000 it illegal to have a protest that's not sponsored by 4:09:42.020 --> 4:09:44.840 an NGO or a union. So there is an extent 4:09:44.880 --> 4:09:47.960 to which this strike can function as a way to 4:09:48.000 --> 4:09:50.460 contain the energy of these revolts and a way to 4:09:50.500 --> 4:09:53.260 channel them into politics that doesn't do anything, which is 4:09:53.800 --> 4:09:56.440 Kind of the UGC specialty is get everyone out of 4:09:56.460 --> 4:09:58.970 the street and then lose the election. This is their 4:09:58.990 --> 4:10:03.430 famous strategy in 1968. Yeah, but we're going to see 4:10:04.170 --> 4:10:07.670 where this goes. And also, presumably, there's going to be 4:10:07.730 --> 4:10:09.670 a bunch of more protests over the weekend. We don't 4:10:09.690 --> 4:10:12.200 know yet. We're recording this on Thursday. But we will 4:10:14.060 --> 4:10:18.120 update you on whether Macron is hiding in a bunker again. 4:10:19.400 --> 4:10:22.200 That does it for us today. It's time to stop 4:10:22.280 --> 4:10:26.040 thinking about voting for at least the weekend, which will 4:10:26.060 --> 4:10:26.500 be nice. 4:10:27.300 --> 4:10:29.900 Put a trans girl on your couch and remember, only 4:10:30.000 --> 4:10:34.190 six years ago, our president was also hiding in a 4:10:34.200 --> 4:10:35.150 bunker from us. 4:10:35.670 --> 4:10:36.810 We reported the news. 4:10:37.930 --> 4:10:38.730 We reported the news. 4:10:44.640 --> 4:10:47.740 Hey, we'll be back Monday with more episodes every week 4:10:47.820 --> 4:10:49.660 from now until the heat death of the universe. 4:10:50.540 --> 4:10:52.970 It Could Happen Here is a production of Cool Zone Media. 4:10:53.180 --> 4:10:57.530 For more podcasts from Cool Zone Media, visit our website, coolzonemedia.com. 4:10:57.990 --> 4:11:00.790 Or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, 4:11:01.170 --> 4:11:03.970 or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can now find 4:11:04.010 --> 4:11:06.950 sources for It Could Happen Here listed directly in episode descriptions. 4:11:07.450 --> 4:11:08.130 Thanks for listening.