1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:10,559 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:23,880 --> 00:00:24,760 Speaker 2: There's another company. 7 00:00:24,800 --> 00:00:25,239 Speaker 3: Have you heard of? 8 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:26,079 Speaker 2: Bending Spoons? 9 00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:26,239 Speaker 4: No? 10 00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 2: All right, well, Bending Spoons has also filed for USIPO. 11 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:32,199 Speaker 2: Billy Lipschultz has heard about it, and he has reported 12 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 2: on it and he joins us out. He's our senior 13 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 2: equities reporter, Billy Bending Spoons. What is this company? And 14 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 2: it's a reference to the Matrix, isn't it. 15 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 5: It's a reference to the Matrix formed in twenty thirteen. 16 00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:47,240 Speaker 5: And kind of the whole pitch is from the movie 17 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 5: that it's kind of like the world is Illusion. But 18 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:51,879 Speaker 5: you don't know Bending Spoons. I don't think anyone really 19 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 5: knows what Bending Spoons is there at Milan based company. 20 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:56,080 Speaker 5: The things that you do know them for, they do 21 00:00:56,160 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 5: own Vimeo, they do own AOL, they own a number 22 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 5: of these other companies. And kind of their whole pitches 23 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:04,679 Speaker 5: acquire a company, clean it up, fit it into the 24 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:09,679 Speaker 5: broader portfolio, maybe layoff some people, cut some costs, and 25 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:11,399 Speaker 5: really build out that way. I was talking to an 26 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:14,639 Speaker 5: investor this morning on the on the the IPO flip, 27 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:16,759 Speaker 5: because that'll mean it kind of kicks off the process. 28 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 5: I was kind of like, walk me through your quick 29 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:21,960 Speaker 5: thoughts on this company, and he was like, it's similar 30 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 5: to IAC, the Barry Diller company which got renamed to people. 31 00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 5: And he was like, again, we haven't quite done the work. 32 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 5: We're all focused on SpaceX right now, but the broader 33 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:33,679 Speaker 5: pitches it's a portfolio company to an extent. In what 34 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:34,839 Speaker 5: that could or could not mean. 35 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 3: I covered IC since it's beginning through. It's because I 36 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:39,640 Speaker 3: followed Barry Diller for forty years. 37 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:42,760 Speaker 6: At no point in time that I know what IAC did, 38 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:44,480 Speaker 6: at no point in time that I know how to 39 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 6: value it. 40 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 3: But it was a bet on Barry Diller. What are 41 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 3: these guys banking on. 42 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 5: I think it's the strategy really is just their ability 43 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 5: to grow. To your point, Barry Diller is a name, 44 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 5: and I don't think when you look at kind of 45 00:01:57,440 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 5: a younger team. The crew behind Ben Spoons, led by 46 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 5: CEO Luca Ferrari, great name by the way, is really 47 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 5: just the notion that they've grown monthly active users across 48 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:11,560 Speaker 5: the platform of portfolios to about half a billion people 49 00:02:11,600 --> 00:02:13,919 Speaker 5: in March. That's up from one hundred and eleven million 50 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:16,399 Speaker 5: back in December twenty twenty three. Obviously a big part 51 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:20,040 Speaker 5: of that is acquiring more platforms, but the broader vision 52 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:21,960 Speaker 5: is to kind of write size this. The pushback that 53 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 5: I've heard initially from investors again everyone's focused on SpaceX 54 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 5: when they look at Benning Spoons without having really dug 55 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 5: too much into it, is how does AI impact the 56 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 5: broader future? Is this a company that can pitch themselves 57 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 5: as a company that can cut costs and lean into 58 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 5: artificial intelligence? Or is it a company when you say, 59 00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:41,079 Speaker 5: all right, well, what am I really using Aol or 60 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 5: Vimeo for? 61 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:45,079 Speaker 3: At the end of the day, Aol still exists. 62 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:46,119 Speaker 5: I thought the same thing. 63 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:49,000 Speaker 2: Wow, I just did an Aol dot com and I'm 64 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 2: wondering who I mean. I guess some people still have 65 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 2: Aol email addresses. Yeah, absolutely, including our next gus, which 66 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:55,959 Speaker 2: we'll get into a little bit later. 67 00:02:56,040 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 3: All right, Billy SpaceX, what's there? On two of the 68 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:02,200 Speaker 3: road show? Day three of the road show? What's the 69 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 3: feedback here? 70 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 4: Yeah? 71 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 5: It seems to be humming along again. We had put 72 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 5: out I believe Friday day time is a flat circle 73 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 5: back to the bending spoons reference to the matrix. It 74 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 5: does seem to be going well. It seems like we're 75 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:17,240 Speaker 5: continuing to marshal along towards that pricing. Thursday evening trading 76 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 5: on Friday, the pushback initially that everyone wanted to talk 77 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:23,760 Speaker 5: about on Friday and over the weekend was down four 78 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 5: percent on the Nasdaq one hundred. Is that pressure selling? 79 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 5: Is that bearish for this company? We're up almost two 80 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:31,640 Speaker 5: percent on the Nasdaq, So those concerns, at least for 81 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 5: the moment, kind of brushed aside. I think the big 82 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 5: question going forward is what level of oversubscription do we get. 83 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 5: Do we see anchor orders? Are we able to hear 84 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 5: who those companies could be? I think the big thing 85 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:43,320 Speaker 5: when you talk about a seventy five billion dollar IPO, 86 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 5: are you getting buy in from the Googles of the world. 87 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:50,040 Speaker 5: Are they stepping up from a strategic perspective, because not 88 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 5: only does that kind of back the valuation that Musk 89 00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 5: is seeking at one point seven to seven trillion from 90 00:03:56,480 --> 00:03:59,720 Speaker 5: a trading dynamics perspective, if strategics are taking up a 91 00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:00,880 Speaker 5: third this, I. 92 00:04:00,920 --> 00:04:03,080 Speaker 3: Mean it's even smaller. No, we don't, we don't know. 93 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 3: We don't know that, we don't know those specifics. 94 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 5: I think that's something that's going to be interesting to 95 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:09,960 Speaker 5: track in the coming days, is how they allocate this book, 96 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 5: because if you sell to a strategic you're essentially taking 97 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 5: the float out even further. So less than four percent 98 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:19,040 Speaker 5: gets much tighter more quickly. And then you add on 99 00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:20,280 Speaker 5: the fact that it's going to be added to the 100 00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 5: Nasdaq one hundred early next month, so that's sky high demand. 101 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 5: It gets kind of it gets more interesting. Is this 102 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:29,000 Speaker 5: is certainly going to be something that we keep a 103 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:31,080 Speaker 5: close eye on as the book gets built, as it 104 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:32,720 Speaker 5: allocations are bulled out. 105 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 2: I mean, this is going to Is this a conventional 106 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:38,159 Speaker 2: IPO or a very unconventional IPO. It's massive. That makes 107 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:39,040 Speaker 2: it unconventional. 108 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:42,640 Speaker 5: It's massive. It came out with a fixed price. It 109 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:45,159 Speaker 5: came out with a fixed price and evaluation. And I've 110 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 5: said this, I think for two weeks. At this point, 111 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:51,840 Speaker 5: we had we and others had reported five months ago 112 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:54,279 Speaker 5: that they wanted to go public around one point seventy 113 00:04:54,279 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 5: five to two shrillion dollars. We had reported five months 114 00:04:56,440 --> 00:04:58,680 Speaker 5: ago that they wanted to raise seventy five billion dollars. 115 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:01,040 Speaker 5: They came out with a fixed rice. They came out 116 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 5: with those metrics already drawn in the sand. When you're 117 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:06,040 Speaker 5: thinking through how this deal is going to come together, 118 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 5: Musk and Company can say, we told you what we 119 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:12,600 Speaker 5: wanted you. If you came to Starbase back in January 120 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:16,159 Speaker 5: and you came to Hawthorne a few months ago, you 121 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:18,839 Speaker 5: knew what we were pitching. And the story is continuing 122 00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:20,560 Speaker 5: to be though. The big pushback of the big question 123 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:23,359 Speaker 5: mark is capex if. As we reported they're going to 124 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:26,480 Speaker 5: spend three hundred and sixty billion dollars in twenty thirty. 125 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:29,120 Speaker 5: Is seventy five billion dollar an IPO just the tip 126 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 5: of the iceberg. 127 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 3: Stay with us. 128 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 129 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:41,160 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 130 00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 131 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 132 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:50,840 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 133 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:53,200 Speaker 3: This is a big week for IPOs. 134 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:55,840 Speaker 2: We talked earlier about Bending Spoons, a company that owns 135 00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:59,360 Speaker 2: Vimeo and AOL getting ready to file for an IPO. 136 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 2: We're of course awaiting details on SpaceX, which Paul is 137 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:06,160 Speaker 2: supposed to price on Thursday and is supposed to begin 138 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 2: trading on Friday on the NAZAC under the ticker SPCX. 139 00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:13,880 Speaker 2: But SpaceX's IPO has renewed all kinds of enthusiasm for 140 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:17,680 Speaker 2: all things space related, the whole space economy, rocket companies, 141 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 2: all of that. So let's get into this industry with 142 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 2: Greg Pendi. He is a director and equity analyst over 143 00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 2: at Clearstreet. And Greg, it feels like there is a 144 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:31,080 Speaker 2: repricing of the space industry because of SpaceX. What was 145 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:33,719 Speaker 2: the narrative before SpaceX's IPO? 146 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:34,400 Speaker 3: What is it now? 147 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, thanks for having me. I think what investors are 148 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 4: starting to appreciate one is you have a very flagship 149 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 4: company within SpaceX, which hopefully sets a bar in terms 150 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:48,400 Speaker 4: of valuation, but it also draws a lot of awareness 151 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:50,880 Speaker 4: to what's going on in the sector. So, you know, 152 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:53,720 Speaker 4: to give you an example, as people are looking at 153 00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 4: SpaceX from our view, when we think about a name, 154 00:06:57,000 --> 00:07:00,320 Speaker 4: we do cover rocket Labs. We're starting to realize that 155 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:04,040 Speaker 4: with it by looking at space actually realizing how tight 156 00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:07,440 Speaker 4: the launch market is right now with the Falcon nine 157 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 4: relatively booked throughout two thousand and seven. So as that 158 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 4: message gets out there from SpaceX, people can then look 159 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 4: at Rocket Labs and see how compelling the opportunity is 160 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:21,480 Speaker 4: within launch for a name like that. We're also realizing 161 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:24,960 Speaker 4: when we look at SpaceX, just how big the starlink 162 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 4: service is. And again when we look at our coverage, 163 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 4: a name like AST space mobile a different approach and 164 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:35,360 Speaker 4: going to the market. They have over sixty MNO partners 165 00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:38,800 Speaker 4: including AT and T, Verizon in Vodafone. But we're starting 166 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:42,320 Speaker 4: to realize just how disruptive and it's really highlighting direct 167 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 4: to devices for a world where we depended on cell 168 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 4: towers being within range and space really can. 169 00:07:48,400 --> 00:07:49,160 Speaker 3: Fill that gap. 170 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 6: What is the what's the market like for space? What 171 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:56,520 Speaker 6: are the economics about the space business these days? What 172 00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:57,480 Speaker 6: do people need to know? 173 00:07:58,040 --> 00:08:00,840 Speaker 4: So that's an excellent question. So I think most recently 174 00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 4: we just saw Planet Labs report a very strong co quarter. 175 00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 4: In our opinion on the first quarter, this is a 176 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:10,400 Speaker 4: company that's already poised, we believe to achieve the rule 177 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 4: of forty this year. That's your year over year revenue 178 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:16,520 Speaker 4: growth plus your ebitdam margin. It's a very big mark 179 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 4: that people have often cherished with the top software names. 180 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:24,679 Speaker 4: We also believe and project that Planet Labs will generate 181 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:27,240 Speaker 4: free cash flow this year on top of the prior. 182 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 3: Year, so really a developing business model there. 183 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:33,080 Speaker 4: We also believe that Rocket Labs, if you were to 184 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 4: take out the heavy investment that they're putting in with 185 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 4: their neutron Rocket is close to adjusted EBITDAH positivity. So 186 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:44,320 Speaker 4: you're starting to see some business models really evolve here, 187 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 4: both from a financial perspective, but then also offering very 188 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 4: compelling disruptive growth potential down the road. 189 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 2: So great, So, Greg, there's clearly a lot of enthusiasm, 190 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:57,640 Speaker 2: and I'm sure much of it's justified, but there's some 191 00:08:57,760 --> 00:09:00,120 Speaker 2: I'm sure that's also a bit ahead of itself as well, 192 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:02,679 Speaker 2: because even if SpaceX rais is a ton of cash, 193 00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 2: which pretty much we know is going to be the case, 194 00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 2: and puts it to good use, it's still going to 195 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:09,120 Speaker 2: take a lot of time to build all these things. 196 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:14,839 Speaker 4: Yeah, no, that's a great point. So within the space economy, 197 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:18,160 Speaker 4: we are seeing the early stages of build out in 198 00:09:18,200 --> 00:09:20,520 Speaker 4: the cut names. We do cover. So when you think 199 00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 4: about Intuitive Machines, which we cover name we're very very 200 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:27,599 Speaker 4: excited about. It's been our top pick for most of 201 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:31,440 Speaker 4: the year. We're only at the early stages of them 202 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:34,440 Speaker 4: building a satellite constellation around the Moon, So you're going 203 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:38,320 Speaker 4: out now we're talking about the lunary economy, a very 204 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 4: disruptive and aggressive timelines to build out a permanent presence 205 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:46,120 Speaker 4: on the Moon. But it is something that both the 206 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:48,560 Speaker 4: government and a lot of the space companies are very 207 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:52,839 Speaker 4: serious about. So these are longer term investments finding that 208 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:56,480 Speaker 4: recurring model for Intuitive, though we thought that they had 209 00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 4: a game changing acquisition earlier this year of Lantras, which 210 00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:02,319 Speaker 4: really brought forth EBITDAH. 211 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:03,120 Speaker 3: Profitability. 212 00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:06,079 Speaker 6: Another topic I think we're all learning about as we 213 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 6: kind of go through the SpaceX is space based data centers. 214 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:12,200 Speaker 6: What are the companies that you cover, what are they 215 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 6: saying about that business? 216 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:15,559 Speaker 4: Yeah, so it's a hot button with two of the 217 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 4: names we cover. So we cover Planet Labs, which is 218 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:24,439 Speaker 4: working with Project Suncatcher. That's Google develop space based data centers. 219 00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 4: It's a twenty twenty seven story and the beta testing 220 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 4: for them, So their biggest neuroturn catalyst is the OWL 221 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:34,319 Speaker 4: satellite this year, which is a big improvement and resolution, 222 00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:38,560 Speaker 4: but they do have plans to start really developing that 223 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:41,240 Speaker 4: in twenty twenty seven. The other name I would point 224 00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:45,280 Speaker 4: people to is Intuitive Machines. They're lan Terras thirteen hundred, 225 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:48,960 Speaker 4: which was developed for the Lunar Gateway, actually is one 226 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:52,439 Speaker 4: of the most powerful solar arrays in space, and when 227 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 4: we think about space based data centers, one of the 228 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:57,760 Speaker 4: key advantages is the fact that you're getting twenty four 229 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:02,400 Speaker 4: to seven solar power drawback or the challenge will be 230 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 4: launch costs. So when we read through the white paper 231 00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 4: on Project Suncatcher, it wasn't really looking for parody to 232 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 4: terrestrial data centers until the early twenty thirties. 233 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:19,000 Speaker 2: How do you think about the exclusion of SpaceX from 234 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:21,199 Speaker 2: the SMP five hundred. Is that a good thing or 235 00:11:21,280 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 2: bad thing for the rest of the companies in the industry? 236 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 4: Well, you know, for the companies in our industry, we 237 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:31,320 Speaker 4: believe that one of the most supportive things has been 238 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 4: sort of ETFs within the sector. That's an area that 239 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 4: we've seen within our names. I can't really speak to 240 00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:44,520 Speaker 4: the SMP five hundred's decision on that. I will say 241 00:11:44,559 --> 00:11:49,560 Speaker 4: that we've said, SpaceX going public will actually not only 242 00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:54,079 Speaker 4: draw attention, but it creates a very strong valuation argument 243 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:55,479 Speaker 4: for the names. 244 00:11:55,280 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 3: We do cover. 245 00:11:57,120 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 6: How are your companies to see space companies, How are 246 00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:00,280 Speaker 6: they valued by the market place? 247 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:01,840 Speaker 3: That's a great question. 248 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:04,720 Speaker 4: So when we think about valuation, what's different about the 249 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:09,080 Speaker 4: space sector is you have to anchor your valuation year 250 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:13,880 Speaker 4: differently for each company based on where the payback really falls. 251 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:17,120 Speaker 4: So for example, with Rocket Labs, they're making a big 252 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:20,200 Speaker 4: bet on their Neutron rocket, which is expected to only 253 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:22,680 Speaker 4: see its first launch in the fourth quarter of this 254 00:12:22,760 --> 00:12:26,320 Speaker 4: year after heavy investment over several years. We believe that 255 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:30,120 Speaker 4: twenty thirty, if they can achieve our estimate for sixteen 256 00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:34,920 Speaker 4: to I'm sorry twenty Neutron launches, then that's a year 257 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 4: you want to anchor the valuation. If I go to 258 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 4: Ast Space Mobile, they won't really get to commercialization under 259 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:44,320 Speaker 4: our estmates until mid twenty twenty seven, so you have 260 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 4: to kind of look out to twenty twenty nine when 261 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:49,480 Speaker 4: they have a decent amount of subscribers. We believe that 262 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:52,520 Speaker 4: you can accur the valuation there on twenty twenty nine. 263 00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:53,559 Speaker 3: Stay with us. 264 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:55,839 Speaker 2: More from Bloomebrick Intelligence coming up after this. 265 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:03,880 Speaker 1: Listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays 266 00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:06,440 Speaker 1: at ten am. He's done on Apple, Cocklay and Android 267 00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:09,760 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 268 00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:12,880 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 269 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 6: Getting back to earnings, Campbell's Soup Camden, New Jersey based 270 00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:20,600 Speaker 6: Campbell's Soup Company reported some numbers. 271 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 3: That's break it down, Diana rossetto Penya. 272 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 6: She covers a lot of these consumer names for Bloomberg Intelligence. 273 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:29,319 Speaker 6: What we learned from the makers of Campbell's Soup again 274 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 6: Manhattan clam Chowders might go to what's what are the 275 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:33,720 Speaker 6: folks in Campbell's. 276 00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:38,560 Speaker 7: Saying, Well, they're trying to be very conservative with how 277 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:43,560 Speaker 7: they communicate with everything going forward. Obviously, tariffs remain a 278 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:48,360 Speaker 7: headwind for them, especially in aluminum. You know, they're thinking 279 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:51,280 Speaker 7: that that's probably going to abate over the next couple 280 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 7: of quarters, but with oil over one hundred dollars per barrel, 281 00:13:57,040 --> 00:14:01,679 Speaker 7: that's probably going to remain a headwind in fiscal twenty 282 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:02,320 Speaker 7: twenty seven. 283 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:05,240 Speaker 2: So we talk a lot about soup and the condensed soup, 284 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 2: but that's not the only part of their business. 285 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:07,880 Speaker 3: In fact, they have a. 286 00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:11,080 Speaker 2: Big snack business as well. They have spaghetti sauce. So 287 00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 2: there's REOs, Arouse, Swanson. These are all brands within the portfolio. 288 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 2: What brand is seeing the fastest growth, which one's lagging? 289 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 7: I would say Rayos and Goldfish had started to stabilize. 290 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:25,479 Speaker 3: Wait wait wait wait Goldfish. 291 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:28,720 Speaker 2: Yes, yes, Paul's a big, big fan of the goldfish. 292 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 3: Nice, there we go. 293 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:33,440 Speaker 6: Thank you all right, just making sure every day ten 294 00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 6: thirty five I go upstairs to the six flour to 295 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 6: get my goldfish. 296 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:38,400 Speaker 7: Well, I guess Ken to thank you for they were. 297 00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:40,760 Speaker 6: Not there today. Ken and I were crushed. Ken Fellio, 298 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:43,160 Speaker 6: chief technical director, we were crushed. 299 00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 3: We'll make it up to you guys tomorrow. So talk 300 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 3: to us about their other businesses. 301 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 4: Well, So the. 302 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 7: Soup business is it was down eight percent for the quarter, 303 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:53,720 Speaker 7: so that's you know, that was obviously a headwind for 304 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:59,000 Speaker 7: meals and beverages, salty snacks. It's not necessarily performing that well. 305 00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:02,240 Speaker 7: So they mentioned that that's probably going to be a 306 00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 7: focus in the fourth quarter as well as in twenty 307 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:09,400 Speaker 7: twenty seven. So you know, it was it was okay 308 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:12,400 Speaker 7: then expected. I don't think that the stock is moving 309 00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:17,160 Speaker 7: that much. So yeah, it's it's business as usual, I guess, 310 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 7: So what is. 311 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 3: The terriff situation? 312 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 6: What if they called out to people in terms of 313 00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:24,320 Speaker 6: how that's impacting their business. 314 00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:28,440 Speaker 7: Yeah, so basically it was mainly on aluminum for. 315 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 3: The suitcaans for the supcaans. 316 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:33,640 Speaker 7: Yeah, that was General Mills is also in that headwind 317 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 7: as well. They're experience in that headwind. So it's it's 318 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:41,560 Speaker 7: obviously with the lapping of that and and some rebates, 319 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:44,160 Speaker 7: that's probably going to set to normalize. But they're probably 320 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:47,520 Speaker 7: most worried about what is coming down the pipe with 321 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:51,960 Speaker 7: the around war and that disruption with fertilizers as well 322 00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:55,360 Speaker 7: as you know, again oil at over one hundred dollars 323 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 7: per barrel, that's probably going to be a little bit 324 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 7: of a of a next wave of inflation going forward. 325 00:16:03,160 --> 00:16:06,120 Speaker 7: And the problem with this is that you know, volumes 326 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:10,480 Speaker 7: are very very affected with any you know, potential price 327 00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 7: increases going forward, So you know, similar to other packaged 328 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:18,000 Speaker 7: food companies, we'll see what happens over the next six months. 329 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:20,560 Speaker 2: What's the story with m and A here for Campbell's, 330 00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:22,360 Speaker 2: because a lot of the food companies have been trying 331 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 2: to trim down their portfolio, really focused on the best 332 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:28,880 Speaker 2: performing brands and get rid of some of the ones 333 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 2: that are lagging behind. And we know that Campbell's recently 334 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 2: purchased a part of RAOS that it didn't already own, 335 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 2: so it is out there making moves. 336 00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 7: Yeah, they're actually saying that, you know, in terms of 337 00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:43,040 Speaker 7: capital allocation, they're going to remain as is. In terms 338 00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:46,440 Speaker 7: of that, they're not increasing dividends. They're probably going to 339 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 7: stay away from M and A for the time being. 340 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:51,880 Speaker 7: They're trying to normalize earnings before they are investing in 341 00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:55,520 Speaker 7: the business more. You know, REOs was a very successful 342 00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:57,680 Speaker 7: M and A, I would say, compared to like other 343 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 7: companies that have purchased thanks recently, like you know, Smucker 344 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:06,560 Speaker 7: and host this. But yeah, they're out of that equation 345 00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:07,080 Speaker 7: for now. 346 00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 3: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 347 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:18,639 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 348 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Corplay and Android 349 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:25,120 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 350 00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:28,280 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 351 00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:32,919 Speaker 6: The top one percent reap most from tax loophole costing 352 00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:36,040 Speaker 6: forty eight billion dollars. The ETF industry is exploiting the 353 00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:39,119 Speaker 6: tax rate at an unprecedented scale. Zach might have, one 354 00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 6: of the two reporters on this story from Bloomberg News 355 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:44,680 Speaker 6: joins us here in our studio. So Zach, talk to 356 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:47,880 Speaker 6: us about what loophole you guys found in your reporting 357 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:50,400 Speaker 6: and kind of how's it work and who's benefiting. 358 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:53,199 Speaker 8: Sure, So, this is a loophole that's been around for 359 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:57,480 Speaker 8: a long time. Okay, basically since the ETF industry started. 360 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:00,520 Speaker 8: The people who set it up realized that they could 361 00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:03,439 Speaker 8: take advantage of this kind of obscure chapter of the 362 00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:05,479 Speaker 8: tax code that no one ever really used for anything 363 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:09,159 Speaker 8: and use it to avoid taxes. Now, that used to 364 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:12,840 Speaker 8: be a relatively small phenomenon because the ETF market wasn't 365 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:16,639 Speaker 8: all that big. Now it's very big. And part of 366 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:19,920 Speaker 8: what our reporting shows is not only is that cost 367 00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:26,600 Speaker 8: today to the government quite significant, but changes being pursued 368 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:30,359 Speaker 8: by the Trump administration now could almost double it just 369 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:33,719 Speaker 8: in the next few years because they're essentially opening up 370 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:37,960 Speaker 8: this loophole opportunity to mutual funds as well as ETFs. 371 00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:40,679 Speaker 3: How does it work? In Layman's terms? I am the 372 00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:42,439 Speaker 3: ultimate laymans laid on me. 373 00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:45,439 Speaker 8: Yeah, So an ETF is it's just kind of like 374 00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:48,679 Speaker 8: owning a stock yourself. If you buy a stock and 375 00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:51,280 Speaker 8: it goes up in value and you sell it, you 376 00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:54,479 Speaker 8: owe capital gains tax on the gain, the difference between 377 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:59,040 Speaker 8: what you got for it and what you pay. The 378 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:02,359 Speaker 8: funds work the same way. If an ETF makes a gain, 379 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:06,120 Speaker 8: they're supposed to send you essentially send you a tax 380 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:07,480 Speaker 8: bill that you have to pay tax at the end 381 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:10,479 Speaker 8: of the year. But ETFs have are able to use 382 00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:12,879 Speaker 8: this loophole where they say, well, we didn't actually sell it. 383 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 8: We just swapped these securities off to a market counterparty. 384 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:21,200 Speaker 8: So rather than sell it for cash, we gave somebody 385 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:25,520 Speaker 8: securities and they essentially withdrew from our fund the same amount, 386 00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:28,159 Speaker 8: so that so there are no cash changed hands in 387 00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:29,840 Speaker 8: there for there's no tax. 388 00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 3: Who does this? I mean, do all atfs do this? 389 00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:38,440 Speaker 8: All ETFs do it all the time. That's just kind 390 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:41,200 Speaker 8: of how they're set up. They they I should say, 391 00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:44,240 Speaker 8: sometimes they sell stuff, they sell their losses, but they 392 00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:46,600 Speaker 8: don't sell their gains. And that's just the normal way 393 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:50,919 Speaker 8: it's worked for decades. But what's different is that the 394 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:54,840 Speaker 8: as the industry has gotten so big, that's it's it's 395 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:58,400 Speaker 8: kind of gone from being a pretty small, little leakage 396 00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:00,199 Speaker 8: of taxes to actually a pretty big one. 397 00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:03,640 Speaker 6: So these gains are they are they gains at the 398 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:06,080 Speaker 6: ETF level or at the investor level. 399 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:09,520 Speaker 8: They're gains at the ETF level. Okay, So one question 400 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:11,560 Speaker 8: you might say is like, well, wait a minute, if 401 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:14,360 Speaker 8: if the ETF doesn't send me a tax bill, I'm 402 00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:17,520 Speaker 8: still gonna have to pay tax when I sell my ETF. 403 00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:21,000 Speaker 8: That's true. So some of this is just kind of 404 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:26,240 Speaker 8: a deferral. Right, you get to postpone your tax bill 405 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:28,480 Speaker 8: until however long you own the fund. But in a 406 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 8: lot of ways that actually becomes avoidance because, for instance, 407 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:36,520 Speaker 8: if the ETF did short term trading and had short 408 00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:39,880 Speaker 8: term capital gains, that magically becomes long term capital gains 409 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:41,520 Speaker 8: to here, which are less expensive. 410 00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:44,960 Speaker 6: So I mean, again, all we read about it for 411 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:48,040 Speaker 6: the last a dozen years about how the big the 412 00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:50,720 Speaker 6: ETF market's getting, the influence we get Eric Bochuda is 413 00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:53,439 Speaker 6: coming in here, everybody telling us it's just the same story. 414 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:56,760 Speaker 6: Gajillions of dollars flowing in the ETFs. Has this gotten 415 00:20:56,840 --> 00:21:01,040 Speaker 6: the attention of tax authorities, of Congress, of anybody who 416 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:02,159 Speaker 6: should be paying attention to this. 417 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:03,400 Speaker 3: Yeah. 418 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:07,240 Speaker 8: So Senator Ron Wyden, the Democrat from Oregon, back when 419 00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:10,280 Speaker 8: he was Senate Finance Chair, kind of floated a proposal 420 00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 8: to hey, let's just close this one off. It never 421 00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:18,360 Speaker 8: went anywhere, and he actually dropped it when he updated 422 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:21,760 Speaker 8: his reform proposals last year, but he says he still 423 00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:24,320 Speaker 8: wants to do something about it. The problem is there's 424 00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:27,919 Speaker 8: so many ETF investors, right, You're talking about twenty million 425 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:30,840 Speaker 8: Americans or something like that, and so even though most 426 00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 8: of them get very little from it, there's a lot 427 00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:38,880 Speaker 8: of people out there who would be, you know, concerned 428 00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 8: if their taxes were going to change. 429 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:43,520 Speaker 6: It just seems like, again, forty eight billion dollars a year, 430 00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:46,439 Speaker 6: that's not chump change, you know, And it seems like 431 00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,920 Speaker 6: somebody would want to get their hands on it if 432 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 6: I'm the government like the irs. But again, it's it 433 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:58,440 Speaker 6: just is it also because maybe the administration's not pushing forward? 434 00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:01,480 Speaker 3: Is there a sense that maybe the political environment's not 435 00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:03,520 Speaker 3: right for this type of thing. 436 00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:07,120 Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean it's it's it's not a super high 437 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:10,240 Speaker 8: profile issue, and it's one that you know, Republicans generally 438 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,439 Speaker 8: aren't looking for ways to raise people's taxes, right and 439 00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:16,040 Speaker 8: so you know, they're in charge right now. So if 440 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,440 Speaker 8: you know, if different Congress, maybe if they had something 441 00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:21,200 Speaker 8: they wanted to spend money on, they might they might 442 00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:21,920 Speaker 8: look at this again. 443 00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:27,959 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 444 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:32,120 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 445 00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,600 Speaker 1: ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 446 00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:39,560 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 447 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,879 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 448 00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal