Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet. We
Speaker 1: are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the
Speaker 1: show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise
Speaker 1: guys pay attention. I am Chad Noman and I am
Speaker 1: joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadrey,
Speaker 1: my co host professional Better Simon Hunter Eado.
Speaker 2: Simon, Chad feel much better today, not as angry, not
Speaker 2: on edge. I was very very on edge on Tuesday. Today.
Speaker 2: I feel relaxed, I feel feel much better. All these
Speaker 2: bad losses shall pass, and thank god that one finally passed.
Speaker 1: We did have some concern from commenters and tweeters and
Speaker 1: texters about your state of mind on Tuesday, so I'm
Speaker 1: glad to hear that's unprompted.
Speaker 3: Unprompted I was.
Speaker 2: I was trying not to show it. I was so
Speaker 2: so mad and miserable. I did my best. I hopefully
Speaker 2: it didn't come across as just a very bitter old man.
Speaker 1: No, it came acros across as a fan, which at
Speaker 1: the end of the day, that's what we are. We
Speaker 1: do have one, Simon, we have one major major correction
Speaker 1: to make on the show, because last Tuesday, I said
Speaker 1: to you that one of my favorite lines from one
Speaker 1: of my favorite movies, Planes, Trains, and Automobiles is when
Speaker 1: Steve Martin's character and John Candy's character are.
Speaker 3: In the back of a truck.
Speaker 1: Riding through Kansas in the winter to get home for Thanksgiving,
Speaker 1: and Steve Martin says to John Candy, how cold do
Speaker 1: you think it is? And John Candy deadpans and just
Speaker 1: says one. And You responded with, surely you can't be serious.
Speaker 2: Can you fly this plane and land it? Surely you
Speaker 2: can't be serious? I am serious, and don't call me surely.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 1: Look, I don't know what I was thinking in the moment.
Speaker 1: In the moment, I knew that that line was from
Speaker 1: Airplane because, like anyone my age, I watched that movie
Speaker 1: in my VCR in the VCR in my parents' room
Speaker 1: on VHS eight thousand times, and like anyone else my age,
Speaker 1: they probably paused it in one very particular scene when
Speaker 1: everyone believes the plane is going down. There's one moment
Speaker 1: that I know everyone paused every single time. Shame on me,
Speaker 1: because in the moment I thought, well, maybe they periodied
Speaker 1: that line in Planes, Trains and Automobiles. I can't remember,
Speaker 1: but I thought I knew it was from Airplane, and
Speaker 1: I didn't correct you, so shame on me.
Speaker 3: It's shameful. But here's the worst part. Matt Mitchell, who
Speaker 3: Spotify wrapped Age is probably eighty five years.
Speaker 1: Older than mine, lives in Milwaukee, no joke, lives next
Speaker 1: door to the Zucker brothers who wrote Airplane directed The
Speaker 1: Naked Gun with Leslie Nielsen. He can literally see the
Speaker 1: house they grew up in because it is next door
Speaker 1: to where he lives. Even he didn't catch it. For that,
Speaker 1: we owe everybody an apology.
Speaker 2: Both are great movies.
Speaker 1: Both are great movies. I mean, look, as they say
Speaker 1: an airplane, Shane and I. They bought their ticket. They
Speaker 1: knew what they were getting into. I say, let them crash.
Speaker 1: Everybody who listens to this podcast knew what they were
Speaker 1: getting into. Shame on me, Shame on Matt for not
Speaker 1: correcting it, Shame on the listeners for signing up for
Speaker 1: this trek. Anyways, this is our Thursday Week fifteen episodes,
Speaker 1: and we're going to get down closer on our quest
Speaker 1: for the final five picks. Reminder subscribe to Sharper Square
Speaker 1: on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify, let's get into this thing.
Speaker 1: Every week, we're going to give our picks. Every week,
Speaker 1: we're going to get calls from our friends in the
Speaker 1: wise guy community. They are going to agree, they are
Speaker 1: going to disagree. They are never going to be shy
Speaker 1: about sharing their opinions. Simon, it is time for sharp calls.
Speaker 2: What do we got, brother, Let's start with a Thursday.
Speaker 2: A couple of pros I really respect all over Atlanta.
Speaker 2: I can join them. I get where they're coming from.
Speaker 2: You know, just Baker doesn't blow teams out. They tend
Speaker 2: to play really close games, and even when they're a
Speaker 2: much better team, it seems like they let these bad
Speaker 2: teams back into it. So I'm gonna end up just
Speaker 2: probably taking a high position on the money line and
Speaker 2: throw it in with some other type of bet, you know,
Speaker 2: put them with their or whoever the Eagles, but I
Speaker 2: guess the spread. I'll stay away from the Bucks. I
Speaker 2: just I have too much respect for these guys and
Speaker 2: I get what they're saying. Right. It's a unique spot
Speaker 2: for Atlanta. I think they've lost like five straight. They're
Speaker 2: just totally undervalued, and just like everyone else, I still
Speaker 2: can overvalue this Bucks team. Who is also feel like
Speaker 2: they haven't covered in a month.
Speaker 1: So look, they are getting Mike Evans back. And I
Speaker 1: do think, I do think there's a difference between undervalued,
Speaker 1: and we'll get to that. I apologize for interrupting sharp calls.
Speaker 1: We'll get to that undervalued, between teams that are undervalued
Speaker 1: because of bad spots and teams that are undervalued or
Speaker 1: properly valued because they're just not very good anymore.
Speaker 2: Another game was on the other side of tons of
Speaker 2: love for New England, which I expected that I knew
Speaker 2: there's gonna be a lot of professional love. And that's
Speaker 2: another game We're going to dive into a ton of
Speaker 2: underlying numbers and trends that do favor this Patriots team
Speaker 2: in many ways. And the Bills touched plus one and
Speaker 2: a half at a couple of books yesterday and then
Speaker 2: got hammered hammered back to minus one and a half.
Speaker 2: So it's pretty the line is in the sand here
Speaker 2: where it's I think it's gonna hold out what it
Speaker 2: is now. The professionals obviously taken the stand that tons
Speaker 2: of pros out there waiting for the Bills to go
Speaker 2: to a dog like I have been talking about, and
Speaker 2: they hit that number, and it feels like it's gonna
Speaker 2: stay where it is. So yeah, tons of love by
Speaker 2: the pros for this Patriots team, for the games they
Speaker 2: agree with us, Chad love that love the Rams. I
Speaker 2: mean we've talked that, we're gonna talk about that one
Speaker 2: Green Bay. You know, tons of love for them, the Chiefs,
Speaker 2: tons of love for them. And shockingly, and what I
Speaker 2: thought would be a bigger spot by the professionals, it's
Speaker 2: not as much love on that Saints team, which I
Speaker 2: really like that number. I think it is just a
Speaker 2: unique spot. You have the Rams, I mean, not the Rams,
Speaker 2: the Saints coming off such an emotional road win. Yeah,
Speaker 2: maybe people don't trust that with this young quarterback, but
Speaker 2: we talked about it. I just there's so I'm gonna
Speaker 2: give out all the numbers about Carolina and then being favorites,
Speaker 2: but it's it feels like a very unique spot. It's
Speaker 2: it's a tough game to Andycap for sure, so the
Speaker 2: last one to round it out, tons and tons of
Speaker 2: love for this bande And unfortunately we're never gonna get
Speaker 2: the three. I thought we would get back to the
Speaker 2: three touched one and a half. Then Joe Burrow had
Speaker 2: this very somber interview. I know it sounds stupid, but
Speaker 2: literally you can watch in real time the number go
Speaker 2: back to two and a half after his interview, which
Speaker 2: I thought was very funny. People are taking a positions
Speaker 2: simply off a really somber interview, So those ones jumped out.
Speaker 2: You know, the Chicago Cleveland game is very split between
Speaker 2: professionals and you know, the dogs. This week there's some
Speaker 2: really big ones like the Raiders, the Seahawks game with
Speaker 2: the Colts. Like I know, pros are taking positions on
Speaker 2: those big dogs. The only one I really thicked they're
Speaker 2: really confident is that Raiders number. They just they're taking
Speaker 2: it just because we'll talk about that game we need to.
Speaker 2: But basically, this Eagles defense have played like seventy snaps
Speaker 2: per game three straight weeks. Now they're coming off a
Speaker 2: sure week overtime game coming home statistically is not a
Speaker 2: good spot. But yeah, really interesting week because all these
Speaker 2: big spreads, and maybe I'm missing it right, I'm not
Speaker 2: really loving these big dogs, but tons of pros I've
Speaker 2: talked to they really like a lot of these big
Speaker 2: dog numbers.
Speaker 3: It's interesting. I'm with you on the big dogs.
Speaker 1: It hasn't been any of my focus this week other
Speaker 1: than that Raiders game. I wanted to find a way
Speaker 1: to get the Jets not going to get there. Wanted
Speaker 1: to find a way to get the Colts not going
Speaker 1: to get there. We will get to one of the
Speaker 1: bigger numbers, not the biggest of the numbers, but before
Speaker 1: we get to our first game. Three quick things about
Speaker 1: the freeze Sharper Square Pro Football Pick Them Contest, which
Speaker 1: is officially live at Sharpersquare dot the volume dot com.
Speaker 1: Number one is a reminder it's only one entry per person.
Speaker 1: If you submit multiple entries try to manipulate the system,
Speaker 1: you will be ineligible for the grand prize.
Speaker 3: Number two.
Speaker 1: If you're in this contest and don't think you can win,
Speaker 1: that is crazy because last year our contest had a
Speaker 1: lot more people. It wasn't won by a professional gambler. Okay,
Speaker 1: it wasn't won by some hot shot handicapper. It was
Speaker 1: won by a rancher from bow Bells, North Dakota who
Speaker 1: came on the show. Lovely Dude said he was going
Speaker 1: to use all of his prize money to buy more cattle.
Speaker 1: Good for him. The price of cattle has three x
Speaker 1: since we did that show. I hope the guy is
Speaker 1: just swimming in cow value right now in.
Speaker 3: Bow Bells, North Dakota.
Speaker 1: Three is a question from producer Matt Our contest is
Speaker 1: nine weeks long, five picks per week. This is forty
Speaker 1: five available wins in total. Out of forty five, how
Speaker 1: many wins do you our listeners think it will take
Speaker 1: to win the grand prize. Matt's prediction, he's expecting someone
Speaker 1: to go on a bit of a heater, is that
Speaker 1: the top finisher will end with a record of thirty
Speaker 1: five and ten seventy eight percent.
Speaker 3: So all right, let's get into it.
Speaker 1: You talked about Kansas City, Los Angeles Chargers visiting. We
Speaker 1: first started talking about this one, I think on Sunday
Speaker 1: it was at three and a half.
Speaker 3: By Tuesday it was at four. It's now at five.
Speaker 3: A lot of other books are five and a half.
Speaker 1: By the middle of yesterday I completely came around to
Speaker 1: your position. I just decided a everything you were saying
Speaker 1: was right. There is going to be extreme weather. The
Speaker 1: Chargers have so many offensive line issues. So much bad
Speaker 1: luck is befalling the Chiefs, whether it's bobbled passes, bad calls,
Speaker 1: all the stuff. That went their way for seventeen straight
Speaker 1: close games. So I'm with you, brother, I'm on the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: I bet him, I bet him. I got the line
Speaker 1: I got with four and a half. I did not
Speaker 1: get the three and a half or the four. I
Speaker 1: got the four and a half because I waited too long.
Speaker 1: But I still went in on it. I'm with you,
Speaker 1: I'm with you, and I love it. Let's put it
Speaker 1: in a contest.
Speaker 2: Yeah, in normal circumstances, we would be all over the Chargers.
Speaker 2: This is an automatic Chargers play. This is a Chargers line,
Speaker 2: and you know, justin Herbert as a dog, very profitable.
Speaker 2: I believe you know. I'll look through the numbers here,
Speaker 2: but we kind of blindly bet him in this exact spot, right,
Speaker 2: But this is what we talked about. This is unique.
Speaker 2: This man only has one hand without you know, his
Speaker 2: offensive line. Even the backups got hurt in the Eagles game,
Speaker 2: like they lost. I think they're a third string right
Speaker 2: tackle in the Eagles game. So just a nightmare. But again,
Speaker 2: I want to give out these numbers just because in
Speaker 2: the future when I tell people we just you blindly
Speaker 2: bet Herbert in the spot, it's because he tends to
Speaker 2: be really great as a dog in the spot. So
Speaker 2: when the line is above three and a half in
Speaker 2: his career, eleven to two and one against the spread Herbert,
Speaker 2: which is really impressive. You know, you think back to
Speaker 2: what's the matchup with Andy Reid and Harrball. Harrball, He's
Speaker 2: four and zero against the spread when he plays against
Speaker 2: Andy Reid in his career. So they do have their
Speaker 2: number this Chiefs team. But we're we're talking about a
Speaker 2: unique spot here and this in the fact that what
Speaker 2: we just talked about, right, it's all the injuries to
Speaker 2: Herbert and this team and even going back and rewatching
Speaker 2: the Eagles game, Herbert, you know, try to do so
Speaker 2: much with his legs, but even when he couldn't, you're
Speaker 2: trying to pass the ball downfield, his guys just could
Speaker 2: not get any separation. And that was really stood out
Speaker 2: to me as they're just the wide receivers are not
Speaker 2: getting open for him. And you know, Keenan Allen does
Speaker 2: the best he can. He can get open in a
Speaker 2: really quick window, but he's not really someone that's going
Speaker 2: to burn some of his legs obviously. He's someone that's
Speaker 2: much older now and Lad McConkie's been kind of disappointing
Speaker 2: this season for them, So it's it feels like a
Speaker 2: really bad spot for this Chargers team. And you talk
Speaker 2: a little about this Chiefs team, it's got a flip
Speaker 2: at some point, right They they basically won seventeen consecutive
Speaker 2: one score games and now this year they're one and
Speaker 2: six oh and seven against the spread. So it's not
Speaker 2: the best chat we've been to, a little bit of
Speaker 2: a scary spot, but I do have to trust the
Speaker 2: fact that we have a good number. It's still under
Speaker 2: six people listeners can still get under six, where I
Speaker 2: think it's a good number. And I just have major
Speaker 2: questions about this Chargers offense with the injury to Herbert.
Speaker 2: I just the man is one handed and he's gonna
Speaker 2: be outdoors in the elements. It's just I think it's
Speaker 2: too much to overcome Chad. So yeah, I feel gross
Speaker 2: doing it, but feels like this is these X spot
Speaker 2: we have to take the Chiefs.
Speaker 3: I don't feel that gross.
Speaker 2: It's weird even after all those numbers. I mean, Herbert's
Speaker 2: are covering God as a dog man.
Speaker 1: I don't feel that gross because this team, this offensive
Speaker 1: line is in such bad shape. And we've seen what
Speaker 1: the Chiefs can do when they're able to get pressure,
Speaker 1: and how dominant Chris Jones can be, and I feel
Speaker 1: like they've hit rock bottom. It is a team of
Speaker 1: champions that has hit rock bottom.
Speaker 3: The look on.
Speaker 1: Travis Kelsey's face, we talk about so Joe Burrow in
Speaker 1: his press conference somber Travis Kelce. I find him to
Speaker 1: be imminently likable. I think he's handled his career brilliantly.
Speaker 1: He seems to be very well liked by his teammates,
Speaker 1: and he just looked so sad and a prideful athlete
Speaker 1: trying to figure out what the fuck is going on
Speaker 1: and why am I not making any of the plays
Speaker 1: I used to be able to make. And I think
Speaker 1: that they're going to figure something out in this game
Speaker 1: that allows them to execute in a way where they're
Speaker 1: not going to be making the same mistakes, especially in
Speaker 1: conditions that will favor them. So, yeah, the performance by
Speaker 1: that Chargers offensive line was so bad they're going to
Speaker 1: need to pull out all the stops to protect Justin
Speaker 1: Herbert in this game. Yeah, I'm with you. I'm with you,
Speaker 1: you and I Campadres. You knowwhere else were Campadres, Buffalo
Speaker 1: Bill's one point favorites over the New England Patriots. At
Speaker 1: the end of the day, it's a bet on Josh Allen.
Speaker 3: Alert here from Josh Allen.
Speaker 4: Looking for He's got it.
Speaker 2: He's a r he's a timer, he's a football.
Speaker 4: Player, through and through.
Speaker 2: Him here, but it's nothing.
Speaker 4: There we go, Josh.
Speaker 2: He drugs an excuse me touchdown?
Speaker 4: How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone? Goodness,
Speaker 4: there's no fears, no way he was being tons down.
Speaker 2: He's still going, Oh my god. The demands to do
Speaker 2: something about this out of reaches man making.
Speaker 4: Louder and louder.
Speaker 3: Every scenario you can think of.
Speaker 1: You talk about trends. Josh Allen off a lost Josh
Speaker 1: Allen is a favorite of less than three. All of
Speaker 1: it favors Josh Allen. Look back to their game on
Speaker 1: October fifth, which is when the Patriots were really starting
Speaker 1: to roll. It's when people start to recognize, oh, maybe
Speaker 1: this team isn't terrible. It's what got them into the
Speaker 1: position they're in. There were so many mistakes by the
Speaker 1: Bills in that game. They easily could have won that game.
Speaker 1: That was a field goal game, and you're still getting
Speaker 1: a Patriots team now that is at the peak of
Speaker 1: its value, that has everyone behind them, that is still
Speaker 1: missing key components on the offensive line, whose rush defense
Speaker 1: is getting a little bit worse statistically as the season
Speaker 1: goes on. I can see why this game is split
Speaker 1: between the wise guys. But my opinion stands Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we're both the mentality, it's really us
Speaker 2: having blind faith and trust in Josh Allen this exact
Speaker 2: same spot against the young and upcoming team. And this
Speaker 2: is how things do happen though in football, right the
Speaker 2: team does eventually break through, the person who dominated the
Speaker 2: division tends to relinkish that powers. And this is a
Speaker 2: unique spot for this this Patriots team. And just when
Speaker 2: I dove into the trends too, I couldn't believe how
Speaker 2: much they favor Vrabel. I knew Vrabel was good after
Speaker 2: a bye week. What do you think his record is
Speaker 2: after a bye week? Chat? I didn't know.
Speaker 3: Is this good seventeen or no?
Speaker 2: I wish Rabel haven't been around that long. He is
Speaker 2: six and one straight up and against the spread off
Speaker 2: of bye week, which that's really impressive for a guy
Speaker 2: that spent his first seven of those years in Tennessee.
Speaker 2: So that's that's probably the most unique stat to me
Speaker 2: of him, is just the fact that he gets his
Speaker 2: guys up for these type of matchups. And so when
Speaker 2: you know, I dove into even more basically this exact
Speaker 2: spot for teams, which again it's a unique spot. It's
Speaker 2: you know, a ten day they've won ten straight games,
Speaker 2: the Patriots, they are now a home dog at home.
Speaker 2: It's only happened like two times in the last like
Speaker 2: twenty years, basically chat and the only other time has
Speaker 2: happened with two starters was Pittsburgh. It was Roethlisberger against
Speaker 2: Tom Brady and Brady basically put up forty one. I
Speaker 2: think he beat him by like thirteen points. So it
Speaker 2: was unique spot, right, Brady was on the road as
Speaker 2: a favorite against Ben Roethlisberger as a home dog after
Speaker 2: you know, a bunch of wins, and I remember that game, right,
Speaker 2: I just remember the Killer Bees and how much hype
Speaker 2: there was and Brady just went in there and just
Speaker 2: dominated that game. So we're kind of banking on that
Speaker 2: here with Josh Allen, Right, I think the general public
Speaker 2: is joining us. I thought this would be a more
Speaker 2: public side. This Patrios team. It really has not worked
Speaker 2: out that way with the money. And you know, the
Speaker 2: more I dove into it, the more I was like,
Speaker 2: oh my god, all this stuff is pointing me to
Speaker 2: this Patriots side. But I just had to trust Josh
Speaker 2: Allen the fact that he did lose them early in
Speaker 2: the year and it's a unique thing where he tends
Speaker 2: to not lose two games in a row. And we're
Speaker 2: about the f find out what they're going to be
Speaker 2: the trendsetter now for the next ten years between the
Speaker 2: Drake May Josh Allen matchup, because right now, Drake Mays
Speaker 2: three and zero against the spread against Josh Allen, which
Speaker 2: is pretty wild to think because last year the Patriots
Speaker 2: were terrible. They were terrible last year, and the fact
Speaker 2: that he's covered both games last year and they started
Speaker 2: this year with a cover and a win out right
Speaker 2: on the road in Buffalo. Maybe I am undervalue in
Speaker 2: this Patriots team continuously. But I just can't get over
Speaker 2: the they have. Like Chad said, they have so many
Speaker 2: weaknesses and holes right now that can be exploited. They
Speaker 2: just have not faced any teams that can exploit those weaknesses.
Speaker 2: So I love this one just like you love I
Speaker 2: love the Bills. I think we're getting a great number,
Speaker 2: but I could not get over those vable stats after
Speaker 2: a bye week. Maybe I'm stepping into here, but I
Speaker 2: think this guy's due for aggression to the meme with
Speaker 2: those type of numbers. That's just insane, those kind of numbers.
Speaker 3: We're both stepping in it.
Speaker 1: This is a season making game for either of these teams.
Speaker 1: It's a playoff. It's a playoff game, it really is.
Speaker 1: So is Josh Allen the reigning MVP. Do they have
Speaker 1: a dominant running does it travel well? All those things
Speaker 1: still exist. I'm going to bet on Josh Allen. We
Speaker 1: are going to bet on Josh Allen. Will we bet
Speaker 1: on the Arizona Cardinals? Who are that nine and a half?
Speaker 1: Simon is just holding on against the Houston Texans.
Speaker 3: It's juiced.
Speaker 1: I think by Sunday it's going to get to ten.
Speaker 1: I think by Sunday, when the public rolls in and
Speaker 1: starts betting, we're going to see that number increase. Still
Speaker 1: sitting at nine and a half, though classic Bilow Sell
Speaker 1: high game right, the line has not budged, even though
Speaker 1: all the bets are coming in on the Texans. That
Speaker 1: tells you that there's resistance from the wise guys. They're
Speaker 1: betting on the Cardinals. I have not played this game yet.
Speaker 1: I'm still waiting for it to get to ten. I
Speaker 1: don't know if it'll make our contest. I think there's
Speaker 1: a couple other underdogs we like a little bit more.
Speaker 1: But are you tempted at all by the reeling, creating, confused,
Speaker 1: lacking in defense, struggling Arizona Cardinals.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and this could be the type of game where
Speaker 2: if you're if you don't really love either side, you can,
Speaker 2: Like we've talked about a little bit the beginning of
Speaker 2: the year, it's a good bet that just bindly brought
Speaker 2: blindly bet the under in East Texas game, just because
Speaker 2: their offenses so question on, their defense is so dominant.
Speaker 2: And you know, this year has lived up to that. Right.
Speaker 2: They're ten and three to the under this season, even
Speaker 2: going back his last twenty two starts CJ, He's seventeen
Speaker 2: and five to the under. So if you if you
Speaker 2: don't like either side, I guess that's the move. But
Speaker 2: I I do really like the Cardinals here. I think
Speaker 2: off the top of my head, I can think of
Speaker 2: one other time the Texans were this pick of favor
Speaker 2: with CJ. I believe they are eight or an eight
Speaker 2: and a half point favorite against the Tennessee Titans. They
Speaker 2: lost that game outright, So just a little perspective of like, Okay,
Speaker 2: the reason that you haven't seen the Texans this pick
Speaker 2: a favorite, especially with CJ, is just they tend to
Speaker 2: not be deserving of it or perform. And your betters
Speaker 2: have taken that, you know, taken that where it's like
Speaker 2: anytime she's been a big dog or a big favorite,
Speaker 2: I should say he's been bet down. That's why this
Speaker 2: number is. No, he's never had a number this big,
Speaker 2: and this is a unique spot where that's that's how
Speaker 2: dead the Cardinals are to the general public. They're just
Speaker 2: totally off of this team, totally leaving them for dead.
Speaker 2: And I'm just looking at the numbers. Yes, this is
Speaker 2: not a good matchup for Brissette, right you dive into it.
Speaker 2: This is going to be a game where he's going
Speaker 2: to be thrown off his point a lot where he
Speaker 2: wants to throw from in the pocket, he will be
Speaker 2: moved a lot. That's just that's just gonna be the
Speaker 2: deal of this Texas team. They just have one of
Speaker 2: the best pass rushes in all football, and we've seen
Speaker 2: that off season, right they just have been dominant rushing
Speaker 2: the quarterbacks. So you know, like Chad said, I'm not
Speaker 2: going to force this one in. I do like the Cardinals,
Speaker 2: but I'm with you. It's I'm still taking the nine
Speaker 2: and a half, but the ten. That's why I feel
Speaker 2: more confident, just because I just have such leaking confidence
Speaker 2: right now, not so much in Brissett, but just the
Speaker 2: head coach. I just feel like he's totally lost his
Speaker 2: locker room in the Cardinals. And I'm interesting how they
Speaker 2: end this next four games because we've seen a lot
Speaker 2: of reports, a lot of really respectable guys in the
Speaker 2: media saying he might be out, like it might be done.
Speaker 2: Him and Coyler might be both out the door come
Speaker 2: the end of the season. So it's gonna be interesting
Speaker 2: how these teams plays for them the next four games
Speaker 2: after getting just absolutely blown out their past past.
Speaker 1: Feel we do owe the people of brass balls so
Speaker 1: we can we can think about this one. I have
Speaker 1: an idea. You and I forgot to discuss this before
Speaker 1: we came on the air. I have an idea of
Speaker 1: what I think brass balls should be. It's not it's
Speaker 1: not this game. I'll be curious to see if you
Speaker 1: and I agree on it. So let's continue. Let's put
Speaker 1: a pin in that. It's just a reminder for both
Speaker 1: of us. Cincinnati two and a half point underdogs at Baltimore.
Speaker 1: I don't think this is gonna make it, but it's
Speaker 1: It was a newsworthy game to begin with, because it's
Speaker 1: Cincinnati and Baltimore and it's just a great matchup. But
Speaker 1: it's also a great matchup of teams that are reeling.
Speaker 1: And I'm sorry, it's Baltimore Cincinnati, by the way, not Baltimore.
Speaker 3: Not Cincinnati at Baltimore.
Speaker 1: And I can't really get there on either team right now.
Speaker 3: Joe is so sad.
Speaker 1: Lamar hasn't really been playing as well as we expected
Speaker 1: him to. The defenses for both teams are pretty bad.
Speaker 1: I find no edge here. I definitely don't want to
Speaker 1: play it in the contest. I just wanted to bring
Speaker 1: it up because he's in sharp calls and Joe's feeling blue.
Speaker 1: He's not Joe cool, he's Joe blue.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I took a little bit a shame on me.
Speaker 1: I know.
Speaker 2: I usually don't like just continuously betting guys who are underdogs,
Speaker 2: because eventually, like you said, it's probably gonna go the
Speaker 2: other way. But Joe Burrow as a dog, he just covers.
Speaker 2: And I've given out those numbers, especially when he gets
Speaker 2: above three, and this number is heading that way. Like
Speaker 2: since we've been talking the numbers moving the three at a
Speaker 2: couple of books, so I talked about this number went
Speaker 2: down to one and a half. Joe Burrow gave the
Speaker 2: most somber, depressing interview ever, talking about he's not having
Speaker 2: fun anymore and he doesn't know if he loves the
Speaker 2: game as much as he used to. Now the number
Speaker 2: is moving up to three, so I'll check. Maybe there's
Speaker 2: something I'm missing, maybe there's an injury I don't know about.
Speaker 2: But everything I've seen this feels like two teams going
Speaker 2: in totally different directions. Like this Ravens team. We keep
Speaker 2: thinking they're gonna figure it out and be that team
Speaker 2: we saw these last five six years. Right, they're gonna
Speaker 2: figure it out, But you keep looking at it the
Speaker 2: under Alane number. It's just Lamar is not as good.
Speaker 2: He simply is not as good as he's been in
Speaker 2: previous years. And yeah, that game unlucky, right, they probably
Speaker 2: should have won it, decided by the referees, whatever you
Speaker 2: want to say. They we're not gonna cover that game.
Speaker 2: So that's that's another game with the market overvalue in them.
Speaker 2: And it feels like it's going the same way here.
Speaker 2: Like if this is now up to three, I kind
Speaker 2: of love the Bengals. If they get the three and
Speaker 2: a half in our contest, we're gonna have a real
Speaker 2: conversation comes Sunday. So just look at all the different metrics.
Speaker 2: Even when Lamar and this Ravens team were dominant, absolutely dominant,
Speaker 2: they've struggled against the NFC North. He's five and nine
Speaker 2: against the spread against his division. When he's on the road,
Speaker 2: he's three and five against the spread in his division.
Speaker 2: So Lamar, through his dominant years, he's always struggled with
Speaker 2: his own divisional opponents. And we've saw them just play
Speaker 2: you know a couple of weeks ago. The Bengals are
Speaker 2: gonna be able to move the ball. We have no
Speaker 2: doubt about that. We just is Lamar going to show
Speaker 2: up and move the ball against his Bengals defense. That
Speaker 2: is super suspect he should be able to. Yeah, but
Speaker 2: I think Joe's gonna keep us in this one. So
Speaker 2: I'm with you. I'm not going to force it. I'm
Speaker 2: not going to force it two and a half because
Speaker 2: I do think people listening to this you'll keep getting
Speaker 2: a better number, and there are threes out there. So
Speaker 2: right now two and a half, I'm with you. I
Speaker 2: wouldn't make this into the contest, but three and a half,
Speaker 2: that's gonna be a real conversation with Joe. He's just
Speaker 2: as a dog. I talk about a dog bigger than three.
Speaker 2: He's nineteen to three against the spread, So it's just
Speaker 2: that's just an incredible number. And he's two and zero
Speaker 2: this season since he's been back as a dog bigger
Speaker 2: than three.
Speaker 1: Simon, The Cleveland Browns are visiting the Chicago Bears, and
Speaker 1: that number has stayed at seven and a half at
Speaker 1: it yet, let me ask you this, though it's going
Speaker 1: to be so cold in Chicago, both teams are going
Speaker 1: to want to run the ball. This is not going
Speaker 1: to be a we said this last week, It's not
Speaker 1: going to be a Shador Sanders game. It's it's going
Speaker 1: to be a Cleveland Browns defense game this week. It's
Speaker 1: not going to be a Shador Sanders game. It's going
Speaker 1: to be a Quinche on Judskins game. It's going to
Speaker 1: be an amazing rush offense against one of the best
Speaker 1: rush defenses. It's going to be what can be an
Speaker 1: effective rush offense against in the Bears, one of the
Speaker 1: worst rush defenses. Do we ignore the line value because
Speaker 1: we are in love with the Bears? Do we not
Speaker 1: play a game that we would nine times out of
Speaker 1: ten play because we lost with the Browns the past
Speaker 1: week by betting on their defense.
Speaker 3: Isn't this what we do on this show? Backing the Browns?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you, Like I've come around, I'm going
Speaker 2: to back the Browns. I don't feel good about it.
Speaker 2: I'm just I am Yeah, I'm just worried. They've quit
Speaker 2: on their coach end this season and we're basically been
Speaker 2: this one because the Browns, as bad as they've been
Speaker 2: this year, they've won a bunch of games outright, when
Speaker 2: then the spread is above seven and a half, like
Speaker 2: they've been pretty dominant for some reason, when they're big underdogs,
Speaker 2: and you know, as a Bears fan, this is by
Speaker 2: far the biggest spread of Kailbillim's career, he's never been
Speaker 2: a seven a half point favorite, so unique spot. The
Speaker 2: trends obviously hate the Chicago in this spot, just like
Speaker 2: they did last week. Right, I gave you those stats.
Speaker 2: I think they're one and eleven against the spread against
Speaker 2: Green Bay. Well it's not much better the week after
Speaker 2: they played Green Bay. So since twenty nineteen, green Bay
Speaker 2: one eight and one against the spread. After they've played
Speaker 2: the Packers when they're a favorite, the following game, they're
Speaker 2: zero and three against the spread, So, you know, not ideal.
Speaker 2: It seems like the type of thing where they put
Speaker 2: so much emotion. So much of that divisional game makes sense, right,
Speaker 2: especially now they're playing the Browns. Why wouldn't they have
Speaker 2: a letdown game? Right? This is not a game that's
Speaker 2: it's gonna be tough to get up to, let alone.
Speaker 2: Chad said, They're going to be walking outside, it's gonna
Speaker 2: be hitting in the face minus ten degrees and wind chill.
Speaker 2: It's going to be a truly miserable experience that game.
Speaker 2: So I love it, like this is my favorite type
Speaker 2: of football games, the old school frozen field and it's
Speaker 2: just the best. So I'll be with you on this
Speaker 2: Cleveland side. They're just like I said, they just they're
Speaker 2: making me lea confidence. I just can't believe how bad
Speaker 2: the defense was against Tennessee last week against the run.
Speaker 2: It was just alarming because they've been so dominant this season.
Speaker 2: So try not to overreact. We expect to Cleveland to
Speaker 2: bounce back here, especially defensively, but my god, I'm happy
Speaker 2: if we can avoid this one other contests. Jet.
Speaker 1: I don't have it making the contest right now. I
Speaker 1: think there's other games. It's also an interesting brass balls opportunity.
Speaker 1: It's not where I want to land on brass balls.
Speaker 1: I got another one that's a contender, but I just
Speaker 1: want to raise it that you both like the Browns.
Speaker 1: I haven't pulled the trigger on it yet. I'm a
Speaker 1: little bit nervous about it, but it's there. It's there
Speaker 1: for the taking, and it's what we would normally do.
Speaker 1: Detroit visiting Los Angeles. Rams talked about it under sharp calls.
Speaker 1: This was a game you quietly talked about on Tuesday
Speaker 1: with like a weird We've been doing this a long
Speaker 1: time and I get like you mentioned a game.
Speaker 3: You say it in a way that feels.
Speaker 1: Like you almost don't want me to hear it, like
Speaker 1: you like it so much, you just want to say
Speaker 1: you like it because you're obligated to say truthful information
Speaker 1: and your honest opinions on this show. But you'd prefer
Speaker 1: nobody hear it at all. That was my takeaway from
Speaker 1: the rams. The rams were five and a half. That
Speaker 1: line's moving, it's moving in the rams direction. It's as
Speaker 1: six at hard Rock. I've seen some six and a
Speaker 1: half pop up. Am I misinterpreting this? Am I over?
Speaker 3: Am? I? Am I putting too much into it?
Speaker 2: No, not at all. I just again, this is a weird,
Speaker 2: a weird job. It's a load of a juggling act.
Speaker 2: I have people that pay. I know people don't believe it,
Speaker 2: but people do pay in same amount of money for
Speaker 2: my picks. I always have to give them the best
Speaker 2: of the number, especially when if I like a game
Speaker 2: a lot. So yeah, it was a little bit of
Speaker 2: tongue in cheek. I showed my hand a little bit
Speaker 2: that I really love this spot. I didn't want to
Speaker 2: say too much of because I didn't want people to
Speaker 2: miss the best of the number, which it's going now.
Speaker 2: Like you said, it's it's hitting six almost every book,
Speaker 2: So hopefully my client's got hopefully fans of the show
Speaker 2: got it. But yeah, I love the spot. I love
Speaker 2: the situation this Lions team. Sure can they cover and
Speaker 2: win this game like they have the last four years
Speaker 2: with Campbell and the golf combo. Yeah, but we've been
Speaker 2: talking about it. Just it's not hitting like it used to.
Speaker 2: There is something different about this team, and other than
Speaker 2: just the injuries, I feel like we've seen the Ben
Speaker 2: Johnson effect really affect this team. They're just not the
Speaker 2: same offensively spec and you have a guy like Dan
Speaker 2: Campbell going for it every time he can on fourth
Speaker 2: and two, fourth and three. And I've been thinking about
Speaker 2: situationally where they're on the field or what the best
Speaker 2: move is. And I can give all the stats if
Speaker 2: you want about how great Golf is as a dog.
Speaker 2: Right we know him and Campbell four point hunderdog or
Speaker 2: more seventeen to three against the spread. You know, they
Speaker 2: just they cover in this exact spot. It's what they've
Speaker 2: done these last four years together. And I get that,
Speaker 2: but I've talked about I just think there's something different,
Speaker 2: and it's it's mcveigh's month. It's December. McVeigh since twenty
Speaker 2: twenty one, sixteen to three against the spread in December.
Speaker 2: The matchup, when I really break it down look into it,
Speaker 2: I just see so many advantages for this Rams team
Speaker 2: to attack this offensive line of Detroit. On the flip side,
Speaker 2: you know, praise to the Detroit run defense. I think
Speaker 2: they haven't had one hundred rusher all season and they've
Speaker 2: been really dominating that aspect. But I think it's because
Speaker 2: their secondary is so bad. Why would teams run it
Speaker 2: where you can just pick up trunk yards every time
Speaker 2: you drop back? And I think Pooka right now is
Speaker 2: if he's not the number one receiver in the league
Speaker 2: because of you know, Jackson Smith and Jigba, he's number
Speaker 2: two in all the categories. He has the most receptions,
Speaker 2: like yards, all that stuff. He's right behind JSN. And
Speaker 2: on the flip side, we've talked with DeVante Adams. He's
Speaker 2: probably what the fourth or fifth best receiver in football.
Speaker 2: He's got like fourteen touchdowns. So it's like it talk
Speaker 2: about a dream scenario for the stafford in this matchup
Speaker 2: indoors at home? Could she be in a shootout?
Speaker 4: Right?
Speaker 2: If you want to take a position in that way.
Speaker 2: But I just feel like this type of game where
Speaker 2: they're gonna try to take away Gibbs, make Golf beat
Speaker 2: him downfield, and we've seen it. Golf has not done
Speaker 2: well with pressure in his face, and it's the exact
Speaker 2: type of game they'll get that. So yeah, I honestly
Speaker 2: wanted to make this our our bet, but unfortunately it's
Speaker 2: moved too much, like it's it's minus six, which I'm
Speaker 2: still betting to six. But if this was five and
Speaker 2: a half, chat would I think we probably could agreed
Speaker 2: on this being the pick for the day. But it's no.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not gonna be a brass balls. I think
Speaker 1: we're gonna have to do something even brass and ballsier
Speaker 1: for brass balls. But we both love the Rams here.
Speaker 1: We both got into the Rams five and a half.
Speaker 1: I hope everyone was listening on Tuesday, got the five
Speaker 1: and a half. If you can get the six, great
Speaker 1: get the six that you didn't get the best of it,
Speaker 1: but you know it's still a good number. The matchup
Speaker 1: here to me, you just said is the key. I
Speaker 1: don't know what defense the Rams the Lions are going
Speaker 1: to play like they tried playing zone. It was a
Speaker 1: little bit more effective against the Cowboys, but the Rams
Speaker 1: are not the Cowboys, like they can do it all.
Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford is so good right now. Puka Nakua is
Speaker 1: so good right now. They're playing that thirteen personnel. They
Speaker 1: can deceive teams in so many different ways. They can
Speaker 1: power run game, they can find guys open in the
Speaker 1: middle of that zone. If that's what the Lions decided
Speaker 1: to play, which they really haven't. They've done it once
Speaker 1: this whole season. They're a Mando man team, and Stafford
Speaker 1: eats up Manda Man. So it's a damned if you do,
Speaker 1: damned if you don't scenario defensively for the Lions, who
Speaker 1: have lost one of their best defensive players in Brian Branch.
Speaker 1: Carolina at the New Orleans Saints. The New Orleans Saints
Speaker 1: plus two and a half, this was Simon says, there
Speaker 1: were some threes available right after we got off the
Speaker 1: air on Tuesday. For much of Tuesday, there was some
Speaker 1: threes there. It's back down to two and a half.
Speaker 1: I don't I don't think it's gonna last. So, I mean,
Speaker 1: I don't think the threes will. I think it could
Speaker 1: get back to three, but I don't think the threes
Speaker 1: are gonna last.
Speaker 3: Uh. We hate betting against the Panthers.
Speaker 1: We hate it, especially when they got a chance to
Speaker 1: take control of the NFC South, the Darlings, the team
Speaker 1: that we've loved for years.
Speaker 3: But we're both on the Saints here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I think threes will pop just because
Speaker 2: the books they're getting so much Panthers money. I think
Speaker 2: they're gonna need some Saints money and the only way
Speaker 2: they're going to get is bipoping that three. Right, not
Speaker 2: people are going to force and take the two and
Speaker 2: a half until Sunday when they need to. It's last minute.
Speaker 2: I think throughout the week you should see some three
Speaker 2: spop up. And you know it's just because who's betting
Speaker 2: the Saints, right, It's it's kind of a spy. You
Speaker 2: don't really want to be back then, Like from the
Speaker 2: general public's perspective, because they just went a really tough
Speaker 2: divisional game now coming home. You know, anybody can look
Speaker 2: at these numbers, but I was alarmed when the buddy
Speaker 2: sent me these numbers about the Saints team. And I
Speaker 2: gave you the stat right there last week on the
Speaker 2: road individual as an underdog, they're eight now nine and
Speaker 2: oh on the road. God, their home stats are terrible. Chat,
Speaker 2: I cannot believe how bad these dats are since twenty
Speaker 2: twenty is an underdog at home the Saints four and
Speaker 2: seventeen straight up, five and sixteen against the spread. That's
Speaker 2: I mean, that's the worst mark in the NFL of
Speaker 2: any team, right.
Speaker 1: But simon, what is Bryce Young on the road as
Speaker 1: a as a favorite?
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's never covered? Yeah, I just I just that
Speaker 2: was just a simple Saint stat's how bad they've been.
Speaker 2: So I love this one. Like you just said, it's
Speaker 2: two it's too immovable objects meeting and something's got to give, right,
Speaker 2: So you said it Bryce Young in his early career,
Speaker 2: he's only been a favorite so many times, and you know,
Speaker 2: eleven times he's been a straight up favorite. He is
Speaker 2: not covered or won any of those games. He's zero
Speaker 2: and eleven. So you're right, it's a unique spot. I
Speaker 2: just want people to get to three just because of
Speaker 2: how bad that saints the Saints team. But we're gonna
Speaker 2: need every point we can get. But I've talked about
Speaker 2: the Saints team surprisingly, you know, even going back to
Speaker 2: twenty twenty, they've always matched up really well. Against the Panthers.
Speaker 2: Asn't matter if it was Derek Carr or Taysom Hill
Speaker 2: at quarterback. They've just had a rotation of guys. It's
Speaker 2: they've they've covered, They've played really well against the Panthers team,
Speaker 2: so unique spot. Like you said, it's a game I'm
Speaker 2: leaking a little bit of confidence on, which is you know,
Speaker 2: just part of it. The more you dive into the
Speaker 2: Saints team, it's just like, my god, how how do
Speaker 2: they keep winning? And I'm not a couple people ask
Speaker 2: me about Shuck because he is two hundred and one
Speaker 2: to win Rookie of the Year. It really is just
Speaker 2: about the way their their season can play out, right.
Speaker 2: It's not do I really think this kid's gonna bet
Speaker 2: beat out ted Aron McMillan or Dart Probably not right
Speaker 2: if you go look at those guys numbers much better.
Speaker 2: It's really just about how they end their season. The Saints. Basically,
Speaker 2: if they win this game, they have kind of a
Speaker 2: cake walk, Chad and in there's like outside chance scenario.
Speaker 2: You know, the fact they play the Jets next week.
Speaker 2: That's a big deal, right, Like, Okay, say they win
Speaker 2: those two games. Now he's got the most wins of
Speaker 2: all the rookie quarterbacks r he's up to five wins.
Speaker 2: That's not nothing. So just to me, people asked thembout,
Speaker 2: They're like, are you really betting two hundred to one
Speaker 2: on Chuck to win Rookie of the Year. It's just
Speaker 2: an outside shot he gets. If he can beat the Panthers,
Speaker 2: that'd be pretty crazy. Then he beats the Jets again,
Speaker 2: not as crazy. Then he's at Tennessee, that's a possibility,
Speaker 2: outplays the other first number one overall pick. And then
Speaker 2: he's at Atlanta. So it's like, none of those teams
Speaker 2: are juggernauts. There is a path for Schuck to go
Speaker 2: four and oh three and one and put up some
Speaker 2: good numbers. I'll bet that two hundred to one, Like,
Speaker 2: I'll take those odds third ten bucks on it. Why
Speaker 2: not If you want to get really weird, you can
Speaker 2: throw him in there with McCaffrey, who is the eighteen
Speaker 2: oh one to be Offensive Player of the Year. He
Speaker 2: might be a thousand thousand season. Like, you can bet
Speaker 2: those two together. All of a sudden you have three
Speaker 2: hundred to one, Like, you can really get fun with
Speaker 2: it with these long shot odds. So I had a
Speaker 2: couple of people ask for like, are you really betting
Speaker 2: Shuck the win Rookie of the Year. I don't really
Speaker 2: believe it. I just when I saw that schedule, it's
Speaker 2: like I squin in my eyes a little bit. I'm like,
Speaker 2: I can see a path for three and one, and
Speaker 2: if you can go six touchdowns one turnover in that stretch,
Speaker 2: there's a path room to get a rook of the Year.
Speaker 2: So just something to keep in mind if you're looking
Speaker 2: for a fun lung shot future have a good time.
Speaker 3: Throw the Chiefs to make the playoffs in there too.
Speaker 3: Why not.
Speaker 2: That's the craziest one of all. It's probably the worst odds.
Speaker 3: Just go for it. Green Bay at Denver.
Speaker 1: This was Chad's choice, the Green Bay Packers minus two.
Speaker 3: I think that the Packers.
Speaker 1: You and I had been struggling with the Packers all
Speaker 1: year because all of the advanced metrics keep saying how
Speaker 1: great they are.
Speaker 3: But they hadn't seemed dominant on the field.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: They were nine to three to one heading into that
Speaker 1: Bears game, And what I saw in that Bears game
Speaker 1: was just a complete team. Now, the Bears were able
Speaker 1: to run the ball in the second half, but how
Speaker 1: they were able to cover overall, and the way Jordan
Speaker 1: Love was able to respond to pressure, the fact they've
Speaker 1: gotten so many of their receivers back.
Speaker 3: I love this roster. I love the speed in their defense.
Speaker 1: I love the way Jordan Love throws against man coverage,
Speaker 1: which is what the Broncos are going to play. They're
Speaker 1: going to go against single high coverage, which is what
Speaker 1: Jordan Love loves to throw against. Everything about this matchup
Speaker 1: to me, I feel like I'm getting about a point
Speaker 1: of value. I think that the Packers should be three
Speaker 1: point favorites because I think the ultimate decision here coaching
Speaker 1: is even defense probably even. I think the difference is
Speaker 1: the quarterback, and that's worth a lot to me. Give
Speaker 1: me the Greeny Bad Packers two points favorites.
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, we both love the Packers a game that
Speaker 2: no matter what, if it was two and a half,
Speaker 2: I'd be all over it. Not gonna let the hooks
Speaker 2: carry me off. Just think matchup wise, they're the better team.
Speaker 2: They should probably be minus three and tons of respect
Speaker 2: by the professionals on this Broncos team right for good reason.
Speaker 2: They they're weally well coached. They've really grind out a
Speaker 2: lot of these games. And we've talked about bo Nicks
Speaker 2: as much as he's regressed in some people's eyes this year,
Speaker 2: he's been incredible in these fourth quarters, leading this team
Speaker 2: to come back wins, and it's just been really impressive.
Speaker 2: And you know, I gave out that amazing stat I
Speaker 2: have a ingrams. It's just a unique spot. This is
Speaker 2: another team just like the Patriots. They've won ten straight
Speaker 2: grames the Broncos and now they are a home underdog.
Speaker 2: So since two thousand and five, eight teams have closed
Speaker 2: an underdog in this exact spot. Two five and one
Speaker 2: against has spread these teams. So they'll let you know
Speaker 2: right there, the Broncos, this is not a good spot.
Speaker 2: You might think it is. You're getting at a home
Speaker 2: dog here, you're you're fired up, but long term it's
Speaker 2: just a loser. The books are kind of telling you
Speaker 2: right the profession are ton here. Which team is the
Speaker 2: better team? They just throughout the records rights, it matters
Speaker 2: what happens on the field, and you've seen it this year.
Speaker 2: In my opinion, the NFC to me is just a
Speaker 2: better problem than the AFC. Like the AFC, some of
Speaker 2: these teams have so many more weaknesses in the NFC,
Speaker 2: and we talked there's something missing with this Green Bay team.
Speaker 2: I don't know if the Broncos are the type of
Speaker 2: team that can exploit those type of scenarios. So I
Speaker 2: really do love them here. And you know, if it
Speaker 2: gets the three, I get if you have some type
Speaker 2: of hesitation there, but hopefully you can get the two.
Speaker 2: The minus two and a half there should be up
Speaker 2: there still by Sunday. I just think professional money. Anytime
Speaker 2: Broncos touch a three, they'll hit it. So I'm hoping
Speaker 2: people won't be scared off by this one. I really
Speaker 2: love the Packers in the spot.
Speaker 3: We're total agreement here.
Speaker 1: There's twos and two and a half's out there if
Speaker 1: you're not in a hard rock state, so definitely look around.
Speaker 1: But yeah, we're the Packers are going to be in
Speaker 1: the contest.
Speaker 2: There's not And I did have a chace that I
Speaker 2: didn't want to give out just because Jay colors in
Speaker 2: the stat Packers are one in seven in their history
Speaker 2: on the road in Denver. The only win came back
Speaker 2: in two thousand and seven in overtime, Brett fav beaten
Speaker 2: Jay Cutler.
Speaker 3: As Jay Culer would say, don't care.
Speaker 1: Last game on the board that I want to talk
Speaker 1: about I think should be our brass balls Better the Week.
Speaker 1: Let's do it, the Minnesota Vikings visiting the Dallas Cowboys.
Speaker 1: Are you with me? Are you with me?
Speaker 3: On the Minnesota Vikings?
Speaker 1: Love the Minnesota Vikings? Should we make it our brass
Speaker 1: balls presented by hard Rock Bet.
Speaker 2: Still it definitely balls?
Speaker 3: You bet all right?
Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings plus six at hard Rock Bets against the
Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys. That is our brass balls Better the Week,
Speaker 1: presented by hard Rock Bet.
Speaker 2: You know what it takes. It takes brass balls.
Speaker 1: Forget about JJ McCarthy for a second. The Vikings defense
Speaker 1: has been playing lights out the past few weeks, just.
Speaker 3: Getting better and better and better.
Speaker 1: And to me, what they can do to potentially neutralize
Speaker 1: Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys offense versus what the
Speaker 1: Cowboys can do to defend against anything that the Vikings
Speaker 1: are going to do is so much greater that I
Speaker 1: have to believe in what I've seen. When Kevin O'Connell
Speaker 1: can just tell his quarterback and put him in a
Speaker 1: halfway decent position against a defense that is as bad
Speaker 1: as the one they just played in Washington, So I'm
Speaker 1: buying the Minnesota Vikings.
Speaker 2: I don't hate it. Like I've talked a little bit
Speaker 2: about it, this is a game I early bet the
Speaker 2: Vikings and it's kind of the what you talked about it.
Speaker 2: It's really a bet on their defense and this matchup
Speaker 2: that I do think they'll be able to get stops
Speaker 2: against the Cowboys. On the flip side, you know, as
Speaker 2: bad as JJ's looked, you've seen him when he's on script.
Speaker 2: They can move the ball really well. And this is
Speaker 2: a great de defense for Kosu de script against There's
Speaker 2: just a lot of things you can take advantage of.
Speaker 2: So you know, it's a rare opportunity you have. A
Speaker 2: Dallas Cowboys team is a big favorite against what we
Speaker 2: consider still being an undervalued Vikings team, and when you
Speaker 2: really break it down, they're not that different really. I mean,
Speaker 2: as great as Dak has been, you know, these two
Speaker 2: teams just aren't that different. And the public perceives is
Speaker 2: totally different.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 2: I think you can see the numbers I'm looking at,
Speaker 2: which is basically eighty percent of the best eighty percent
Speaker 2: of the money all that's just coming on this Dallas
Speaker 2: Cowboys team, and it is a unique spot back in
Speaker 2: Minnesota that we're not We're not the biggest Minnesota backers here.
Speaker 2: We have not really been on them or gone against
Speaker 2: them that much this season, but this does feel like
Speaker 2: a unique spot with this number at six to be
Speaker 2: back in them.
Speaker 3: For every season, there is a time, Simon.
Speaker 2: We have sertain teams we lock in on and I
Speaker 2: have a couple more games if you want to run
Speaker 2: through of just crazy stats for you. Always, always, like
Speaker 2: I said, I am, there's no one where a handicappy
Speaker 2: Tennessee Titans game, I believe on Tuesday said I was
Speaker 2: on the forty nine ers. Yeah right, Yeah, I have flipped.
Speaker 2: I have been bullied by professional betters. I am coming
Speaker 2: around on Tennessee. I'm gonna take a position on Tennessee.
Speaker 2: But again, I don't know if we'll make it our contest, but.
Speaker 3: No fucking way, We're just not gonna do it.
Speaker 2: Wait to hear these stats, chaff I.
Speaker 1: Don't want to hear the stats, Simon, Simon. Do we
Speaker 1: need Matt Mitchell to go back and pull the clip
Speaker 1: that we played on Tuesday?
Speaker 3: What did we say? What did we say?
Speaker 2: I'm not putting in the contest. I'm just giving you
Speaker 2: the stats for Thursday show with our loyal fans, which
Speaker 2: I hope they listened to me. I said to Fade me.
Speaker 3: This is on you, this is on you. I take no.
Speaker 2: Responsibility Nola, No Nela, Kyle Shanahan and these forty nine ers.
Speaker 2: They are four and eight against the spread off a
Speaker 2: bye week, which is pretty extreme. They've lost three straight.
Speaker 2: They're one to five off the bye week since twenty
Speaker 2: twenty one. He faces a team below five hundred A
Speaker 2: Shanahan zero and three off a bye week against the spread.
Speaker 2: So I don't know why in my mind I thought
Speaker 2: Channon was great off of bye week. I think I
Speaker 2: said that on Tuesday when I went and looked it up.
Speaker 2: It's atrocious off of bye week. And that's all I
Speaker 2: needed to flip me because I just I cannot get
Speaker 2: this Tennessee team right. And it's like, what am I
Speaker 2: missing here? Why are the pros betting this team again?
Speaker 2: And there's your answer. So let's move it on to
Speaker 2: the next game, because, like Chet said, we're not gonna
Speaker 2: betting this one. Pittsburgh Miami. Where were you at?
Speaker 1: You were on Miami right or I I was on
Speaker 1: Miami plus three and a half on Tuesday's.
Speaker 2: That to me does feel like the sharp side the
Speaker 2: three and a half. But if you're like me and
Speaker 2: you just don't want to throw out the spread, you
Speaker 2: want to go strict money line, which is what I
Speaker 2: want to do. Here some amazing stats about Steelers of
Speaker 2: the money line and this exact opportunity. Since ninety ninety
Speaker 2: two on Monday Night football games, the Steelers are twenty
Speaker 2: two and one straight up. Their only loss was in
Speaker 2: twenty twenty against the Commanders. I don't know if you
Speaker 2: remember twenty twenty, there were no stands in the stands.
Speaker 2: That's throw it out. They are just unbelievable at home
Speaker 2: on Monday Night. If you throw that one out, they're
Speaker 2: twenty two and to ozh straight up on Monday Night
Speaker 2: football at home since ninety ninety two. In his career,
Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers eleven and two straight up on Monday Night football.
Speaker 2: So there's just a lot of trends at point to
Speaker 2: a liking it. And let's get to all the two
Speaker 2: of stats. Two outdoors in the cold, two and seven
Speaker 2: straight up, one and eight against the spread in his
Speaker 2: career when it's under forty degrees. He's zero and five
Speaker 2: straight up, one and four against the spread, losing those
Speaker 2: games by nineteen points per game. So, my god, we
Speaker 2: know two is horrible and the cold. I had no
Speaker 2: idea the stats were that bad. So with Chad sick,
Speaker 2: can be true? Right? This Miami team have been hiding
Speaker 2: to it for a couple of weeks. Can they just
Speaker 2: lean into the run and get away with it? Possibly?
Speaker 2: But my god, do all those stats point to them
Speaker 2: just laying a total egg here in Miami, especially coming
Speaker 2: off a divisional win on the road now traveling to Pittsburgh,
Speaker 2: it seems like the perfect spot to fade this team.
Speaker 2: So I'm still gonna be dug in Steelers minus three.
Speaker 2: I'll still take it. But I could not believe those
Speaker 2: Monday Night's stats for this this Pittsburgh team historically, they
Speaker 2: just came to dominate. And my last game game again,
Speaker 2: we don't. I think you more had a renon than
Speaker 2: I did. I just I couldn't really get behind Washington
Speaker 2: or the Giants. I just I remember when you brought
Speaker 2: the game up. Did you like Giants or dold you
Speaker 2: like Washington? I don't.
Speaker 1: I liked Washington, but so at the time I thought
Speaker 1: it might be Jayden Daniels. Now we know it's not
Speaker 1: going to be Jayden Daniels, which.
Speaker 2: Is to me is better. That's to me is why
Speaker 2: I'm kind I kind of like Washington now. And the
Speaker 2: line reflects that it's come down a little bit. It's
Speaker 2: come down for the two and a half to two.
Speaker 2: This is my favorite lazy man stat. We always talk
Speaker 2: about lazy man stats. I love a good like. Give
Speaker 2: me a good stat. I don't need to think about
Speaker 2: the game anymore. I'll just bet it off this stat blindly.
Speaker 2: What have we been doing so well that we missed
Speaker 2: last week? We've been betting teams that's be bet on
Speaker 2: teams that get shut out. Yeah, and it's been tried
Speaker 2: or true for me and Chad for years. And the
Speaker 2: stats backup since twenty fifteen, teams that got shot in
Speaker 2: their previous game thirty four, seventeen to three against the spread.
Speaker 2: This season four to zero against the spread. So if
Speaker 2: you just want to lazy man blindly bet it, it's
Speaker 2: a good bet. It just shows these teams that get
Speaker 2: shut out or embarrassed, these are growing ass men. They
Speaker 2: bounce back like whatever it is. We've seen it time
Speaker 2: and time again. These teams tend to bounce back the
Speaker 2: Commanders if you go through it. They've owned the Giants
Speaker 2: in this matchup. Like I always talk to the divisional matchups,
Speaker 2: the Commanders, who have just been awful throughout these last
Speaker 2: four or five years. Even the Giants were semi good
Speaker 2: with Daniel Jones, they'd always beat them in this matchup.
Speaker 2: So it is unique. I kind of like the Commander,
Speaker 2: especially a plus two and a half. I know it's
Speaker 2: two now at hard Rocks. There's a bunch of two
Speaker 2: and a half's up there. I've come around the Commanders team.
Speaker 2: I think it's probably a good spot, especially the fact
Speaker 2: that Mariota is back, and just look at the splits
Speaker 2: everyone's left them for debt. People are now hammering and
Speaker 2: backing this Giants team. They believe in the Giants as
Speaker 2: a home favorite. So it feels have got a rare
Speaker 2: opportunity to jump on this Washington team.
Speaker 4: Here.
Speaker 1: Look that one is of the of the ones you
Speaker 1: added in. It's the one I hate the least.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was a gross end of the show, but
Speaker 2: I had to give out all these stats. I just
Speaker 2: I love them.
Speaker 1: Let's let everyone ponder the grossness that you just threw
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Speaker 3: All right, what are you laughing at?
Speaker 2: I have tons of people sending me all these videos
Speaker 2: from people in sports media about Jalen Hurts. Like, but
Speaker 2: people are like, should Hurts be benched? Matt Mitchell said
Speaker 2: he's willing to die for Josh Allen, a man everyone
Speaker 2: won an AFC Championship game. Eagles fans have a quarterback
Speaker 2: that's taken them two Super Bowls. There is should this
Speaker 2: guy be benched? Two worlds? We live in two worlds,
Speaker 2: Chad and the other world sucks. I can't imagine being
Speaker 2: in a world that you want to sit hurts and
Speaker 2: you hate Josh Allen. Those people just suck.
Speaker 1: That's why I so love Philly sports fans but also
Speaker 1: so love Buffalo sports fans. They are such distinct personalities, Like,
Speaker 1: it's just so much fun to engage with both groups
Speaker 1: all of the time.
Speaker 3: It's totally amazing. The reason why.
Speaker 1: We're that Matt Mitchell said he would die for Josh
Speaker 1: Allen is because Simon the other day sent in our
Speaker 1: group text chain video of Josh Allen being interviewed when
Speaker 1: he had just gotten to Wyoming and he was the
Speaker 1: second string backup quarterback and they're asking him about the
Speaker 1: snow and he's so wholesome and earnest, he's.
Speaker 2: Like stuttering over his own words. He's so young and sweet, so.
Speaker 1: Young and sweet and innocent, like a babe in the woods.
Speaker 3: He's like, I've never seen snow like this. He's like,
Speaker 3: what do you like to do?
Speaker 1: Well? I just want to go out to eat with
Speaker 1: my friends and you know, play football, anything football related.
Speaker 1: That's It's like this guy eventually married Hailey Steinfeld.
Speaker 2: It became Superman.
Speaker 3: It's became a superman. Totally awesome. Matt.
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell makes good choices in his heroes. All right, Simon,
Speaker 1: one of your biggest bets, pull up those.
Speaker 2: Pints and be a man. I mean to show man
Speaker 2: a little bit. Love the Rams, obviously you do.
Speaker 3: I didn't. I didn't. That didn't come across.
Speaker 2: Yeah, good, physician Chad read it pretty good. I do
Speaker 2: love the Chiefs. I'm getting a little weary because it's
Speaker 2: so much love. Like everyone I talked to is right
Speaker 2: there with us. I've slowed down a little bit, but
Speaker 2: I do really love the Chiefs. In that spot, we
Speaker 2: talk about the Bills. I really like the Bills, and
Speaker 2: it's not one of my bigger bets right now. I
Speaker 2: can see myself getting there, so we just city right now.
Speaker 2: My two biggest bets for sure, Green Bay the two
Speaker 2: two and a half and the Rams minus five and
Speaker 2: a half. I haven't touched so much the Rams at six,
Speaker 2: but I wouldn't let it scare me off. I'll still
Speaker 2: bet it comes up Sunday underdog parlay. My dog blocks
Speaker 2: your dog, Your dog blocks mot dog.
Speaker 1: I have New Orleans, I have Cincinnati, I have Washington,
Speaker 1: love it.
Speaker 3: I have Minnesota. Okay, I love that too, Minnesota.
Speaker 2: And for our last one, Cleveland.
Speaker 3: I was looking for a decent sized number.
Speaker 2: I get where you're coming from. Let me be the
Speaker 2: bigger scumbag here. Give me the Raiders plus four nine.
Speaker 3: I knew you were going to say that I gotta do.
Speaker 2: It again this. I think they're gonna win. They should
Speaker 2: blow out this Raiders team. But we've seen in football
Speaker 2: when when when this when teams collapse under their own weight.
Speaker 2: This is uh this, this tends to happen. So just
Speaker 2: at that number, I have to bet it. That's too
Speaker 2: big for you.
Speaker 1: You really just want the conversation about Jalen Hurst to continue,
Speaker 1: not at all.
Speaker 2: I just I want to make money off the suffering.
Speaker 2: That's the key here.
Speaker 1: Uh favorite, By the way, the only of the big
Speaker 1: numbers you know, Seattle, Indie and Arizona and Houston and
Speaker 1: uh Vegas and Philly. I forgot the other big number
Speaker 1: that we were talking about before. Tennessee, Vegas and Philly
Speaker 1: is the only one that's moved in the direction of
Speaker 1: the underdog.
Speaker 3: It was a twelve and a half. Now it's eleven
Speaker 3: and a half eleven.
Speaker 1: The other ones have just gone up, except for Arizona,
Speaker 1: which is holding strong.
Speaker 3: So we know the wise guys are on Vegas here.
Speaker 1: Who's our favorites, Parlay, I feel like we got to
Speaker 1: go like we got we gotta go with the Rams, Yeah,
Speaker 1: green Bay, Green Bay, Kansas City, Buffalo.
Speaker 2: Would you say Buffalo? Buffalo? You know obviously I'm people.
Speaker 2: I gave him that stat the Pittsburgh one.
Speaker 3: I was just gonna say.
Speaker 2: It's got to be a play, a sharp versus square,
Speaker 2: sharp versus square.
Speaker 3: This week we tied.
Speaker 2: I'll do because I tend to go dogs here. I'm
Speaker 2: just so much better at them. But I'll go. I
Speaker 2: gotta do it. I guess I got I'll go Rams
Speaker 2: minus six.
Speaker 1: Okay, Rams minus six, Chad, Let's see Chad. Chad's choice
Speaker 1: was the Packers, Simon says was the Saints. Brass Balls
Speaker 1: was the Vikings.
Speaker 3: I think I'm gonna go with the Bills.
Speaker 2: I love it.
Speaker 3: You think I just jinks, Matt Mitchell, Is that what
Speaker 3: you're saying.
Speaker 2: A little bit? I beg. I'm already drink some I
Speaker 2: love the Bills so much here too, And it's just
Speaker 2: that's how history happens. Like I said, you just it's
Speaker 2: the ones you don't see coming that hurt the most.
Speaker 2: And that's what I'm worried about here. Brother.
Speaker 1: Well, look, we're we're rioting a knife's edge all season
Speaker 1: with some of these teams, right, like trying to get
Speaker 1: off the wagon with the Chiefs, the Bills, the Ravens,
Speaker 1: Like trying to see where the transitions. This is betting.
Speaker 1: You're trying to see the future. It doesn't always work out.
Speaker 1: When we reconvene on Sunday, we're going to be talking about.
Speaker 3: The Chiefs, the Bills.
Speaker 1: Cleveland will have a conversation, the Rams, New Orleans will
Speaker 1: be in the conversation. Green Bay, Minnesota, Maybe Washington, That's
Speaker 1: what I think, Maybe Washington. Those are going to be
Speaker 1: the games from which we choose our final five.
Speaker 3: If I had to make a prediction.
Speaker 1: This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast
Speaker 1: network will be back on Sunday morning, Sharper Square YouTube.
Speaker 3: Don't forget.
Speaker 1: You can ease drop on this very intimate conversation as
Speaker 1: we try to.
Speaker 3: Plan for the misery and glory of the day.
Speaker 1: We'll be back on sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, seven
Speaker 1: point thirty ish after America's Game of the Week, and
Speaker 1: we're gonna recap all that misery. Watch or listen on
Speaker 1: YouTube at sharper Square. Download some Spotify Apple Pods wherever
Speaker 1: you get your pods, rate review, subscribe, Wes five stars
Speaker 1: say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until next time.
Speaker 3: Love you.
Speaker 4: Together, we can do it.
Speaker 3: Nobody can do it alone, but together we can do it.
Speaker 1: Let's play our kind.
Speaker 4: Of football and we'll come out of them with a win.
Speaker 4: Let's go