WEBVTT - SHARP NFL WEEK 15 BETS: Bills-Patriots, Lions-Rams, Packers-Broncos, Chargers-Chiefs and more

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet. We

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<v Speaker 1>are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the

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<v Speaker 1>show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise

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<v Speaker 1>guys pay attention. I am Chad Noman and I am

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<v Speaker 1>joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadrey,

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<v Speaker 1>my co host professional Better Simon Hunter Eado.

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<v Speaker 2>Simon, Chad feel much better today, not as angry, not

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<v Speaker 2>on edge. I was very very on edge on Tuesday. Today.

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<v Speaker 2>I feel relaxed, I feel feel much better. All these

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<v Speaker 2>bad losses shall pass, and thank god that one finally passed.

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<v Speaker 1>We did have some concern from commenters and tweeters and

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<v Speaker 1>texters about your state of mind on Tuesday, so I'm

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<v Speaker 1>glad to hear that's unprompted.

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<v Speaker 3>Unprompted I was.

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<v Speaker 2>I was trying not to show it. I was so

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<v Speaker 2>so mad and miserable. I did my best. I hopefully

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<v Speaker 2>it didn't come across as just a very bitter old man.

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<v Speaker 1>No, it came acros across as a fan, which at

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<v Speaker 1>the end of the day, that's what we are. We

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<v Speaker 1>do have one, Simon, we have one major major correction

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<v Speaker 1>to make on the show, because last Tuesday, I said

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<v Speaker 1>to you that one of my favorite lines from one

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<v Speaker 1>of my favorite movies, Planes, Trains, and Automobiles is when

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<v Speaker 1>Steve Martin's character and John Candy's character are.

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<v Speaker 3>In the back of a truck.

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<v Speaker 1>Riding through Kansas in the winter to get home for Thanksgiving,

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<v Speaker 1>and Steve Martin says to John Candy, how cold do

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<v Speaker 1>you think it is? And John Candy deadpans and just

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<v Speaker 1>says one. And You responded with, surely you can't be serious.

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<v Speaker 2>Can you fly this plane and land it? Surely you

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<v Speaker 2>can't be serious? I am serious, and don't call me surely.

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<v Speaker 3>Now.

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<v Speaker 1>Look, I don't know what I was thinking in the moment.

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<v Speaker 1>In the moment, I knew that that line was from

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<v Speaker 1>Airplane because, like anyone my age, I watched that movie

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<v Speaker 1>in my VCR in the VCR in my parents' room

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<v Speaker 1>on VHS eight thousand times, and like anyone else my age,

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<v Speaker 1>they probably paused it in one very particular scene when

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<v Speaker 1>everyone believes the plane is going down. There's one moment

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<v Speaker 1>that I know everyone paused every single time. Shame on me,

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<v Speaker 1>because in the moment I thought, well, maybe they periodied

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<v Speaker 1>that line in Planes, Trains and Automobiles. I can't remember,

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<v Speaker 1>but I thought I knew it was from Airplane, and

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<v Speaker 1>I didn't correct you, so shame on me.

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<v Speaker 3>It's shameful. But here's the worst part. Matt Mitchell, who

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<v Speaker 3>Spotify wrapped Age is probably eighty five years.

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<v Speaker 1>Older than mine, lives in Milwaukee, no joke, lives next

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<v Speaker 1>door to the Zucker brothers who wrote Airplane directed The

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<v Speaker 1>Naked Gun with Leslie Nielsen. He can literally see the

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<v Speaker 1>house they grew up in because it is next door

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<v Speaker 1>to where he lives. Even he didn't catch it. For that,

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<v Speaker 1>we owe everybody an apology.

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<v Speaker 2>Both are great movies.

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<v Speaker 1>Both are great movies. I mean, look, as they say

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<v Speaker 1>an airplane, Shane and I. They bought their ticket. They

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<v Speaker 1>knew what they were getting into. I say, let them crash.

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<v Speaker 1>Everybody who listens to this podcast knew what they were

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<v Speaker 1>getting into. Shame on me, Shame on Matt for not

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<v Speaker 1>correcting it, Shame on the listeners for signing up for

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<v Speaker 1>this trek. Anyways, this is our Thursday Week fifteen episodes,

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<v Speaker 1>and we're going to get down closer on our quest

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<v Speaker 1>for the final five picks. Reminder subscribe to Sharper Square

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<v Speaker 1>on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify, let's get into this thing.

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<v Speaker 1>Every week, we're going to give our picks. Every week,

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to get calls from our friends in the

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<v Speaker 1>wise guy community. They are going to agree, they are

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<v Speaker 1>going to disagree. They are never going to be shy

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<v Speaker 1>about sharing their opinions. Simon, it is time for sharp calls.

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<v Speaker 2>What do we got, brother, Let's start with a Thursday.

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<v Speaker 2>A couple of pros I really respect all over Atlanta.

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<v Speaker 2>I can join them. I get where they're coming from.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, just Baker doesn't blow teams out. They tend

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<v Speaker 2>to play really close games, and even when they're a

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<v Speaker 2>much better team, it seems like they let these bad

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<v Speaker 2>teams back into it. So I'm gonna end up just

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<v Speaker 2>probably taking a high position on the money line and

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<v Speaker 2>throw it in with some other type of bet, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>put them with their or whoever the Eagles, but I

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<v Speaker 2>guess the spread. I'll stay away from the Bucks. I

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<v Speaker 2>just I have too much respect for these guys and

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<v Speaker 2>I get what they're saying. Right. It's a unique spot

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<v Speaker 2>for Atlanta. I think they've lost like five straight. They're

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<v Speaker 2>just totally undervalued, and just like everyone else, I still

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<v Speaker 2>can overvalue this Bucks team. Who is also feel like

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<v Speaker 2>they haven't covered in a month.

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<v Speaker 1>So look, they are getting Mike Evans back. And I

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<v Speaker 1>do think, I do think there's a difference between undervalued,

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<v Speaker 1>and we'll get to that. I apologize for interrupting sharp calls.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll get to that undervalued, between teams that are undervalued

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<v Speaker 1>because of bad spots and teams that are undervalued or

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<v Speaker 1>properly valued because they're just not very good anymore.

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<v Speaker 2>Another game was on the other side of tons of

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<v Speaker 2>love for New England, which I expected that I knew

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<v Speaker 2>there's gonna be a lot of professional love. And that's

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<v Speaker 2>another game We're going to dive into a ton of

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<v Speaker 2>underlying numbers and trends that do favor this Patriots team

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<v Speaker 2>in many ways. And the Bills touched plus one and

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<v Speaker 2>a half at a couple of books yesterday and then

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<v Speaker 2>got hammered hammered back to minus one and a half.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's pretty the line is in the sand here

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<v Speaker 2>where it's I think it's gonna hold out what it

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<v Speaker 2>is now. The professionals obviously taken the stand that tons

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<v Speaker 2>of pros out there waiting for the Bills to go

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<v Speaker 2>to a dog like I have been talking about, and

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<v Speaker 2>they hit that number, and it feels like it's gonna

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<v Speaker 2>stay where it is. So yeah, tons of love by

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<v Speaker 2>the pros for this Patriots team, for the games they

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<v Speaker 2>agree with us, Chad love that love the Rams. I

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<v Speaker 2>mean we've talked that, we're gonna talk about that one

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<v Speaker 2>Green Bay. You know, tons of love for them, the Chiefs,

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<v Speaker 2>tons of love for them. And shockingly, and what I

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<v Speaker 2>thought would be a bigger spot by the professionals, it's

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<v Speaker 2>not as much love on that Saints team, which I

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<v Speaker 2>really like that number. I think it is just a

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<v Speaker 2>unique spot. You have the Rams, I mean, not the Rams,

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<v Speaker 2>the Saints coming off such an emotional road win. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>maybe people don't trust that with this young quarterback, but

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<v Speaker 2>we talked about it. I just there's so I'm gonna

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<v Speaker 2>give out all the numbers about Carolina and then being favorites,

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<v Speaker 2>but it's it feels like a very unique spot. It's

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<v Speaker 2>it's a tough game to Andycap for sure, so the

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<v Speaker 2>last one to round it out, tons and tons of

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<v Speaker 2>love for this bande And unfortunately we're never gonna get

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<v Speaker 2>the three. I thought we would get back to the

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<v Speaker 2>three touched one and a half. Then Joe Burrow had

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<v Speaker 2>this very somber interview. I know it sounds stupid, but

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<v Speaker 2>literally you can watch in real time the number go

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<v Speaker 2>back to two and a half after his interview, which

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<v Speaker 2>I thought was very funny. People are taking a positions

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<v Speaker 2>simply off a really somber interview, So those ones jumped out.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, the Chicago Cleveland game is very split between

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<v Speaker 2>professionals and you know, the dogs. This week there's some

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<v Speaker 2>really big ones like the Raiders, the Seahawks game with

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<v Speaker 2>the Colts. Like I know, pros are taking positions on

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<v Speaker 2>those big dogs. The only one I really thicked they're

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<v Speaker 2>really confident is that Raiders number. They just they're taking

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<v Speaker 2>it just because we'll talk about that game we need to.

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<v Speaker 2>But basically, this Eagles defense have played like seventy snaps

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<v Speaker 2>per game three straight weeks. Now they're coming off a

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<v Speaker 2>sure week overtime game coming home statistically is not a

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<v Speaker 2>good spot. But yeah, really interesting week because all these

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<v Speaker 2>big spreads, and maybe I'm missing it right, I'm not

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<v Speaker 2>really loving these big dogs, but tons of pros I've

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<v Speaker 2>talked to they really like a lot of these big

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<v Speaker 2>dog numbers.

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<v Speaker 3>It's interesting. I'm with you on the big dogs.

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<v Speaker 1>It hasn't been any of my focus this week other

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<v Speaker 1>than that Raiders game. I wanted to find a way

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<v Speaker 1>to get the Jets not going to get there. Wanted

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<v Speaker 1>to find a way to get the Colts not going

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<v Speaker 1>to get there. We will get to one of the

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<v Speaker 1>bigger numbers, not the biggest of the numbers, but before

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<v Speaker 1>we get to our first game. Three quick things about

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<v Speaker 1>the freeze Sharper Square Pro Football Pick Them Contest, which

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<v Speaker 1>is officially live at Sharpersquare dot the volume dot com.

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<v Speaker 1>Number one is a reminder it's only one entry per person.

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<v Speaker 1>If you submit multiple entries try to manipulate the system,

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<v Speaker 1>you will be ineligible for the grand prize.

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<v Speaker 3>Number two.

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<v Speaker 1>If you're in this contest and don't think you can win,

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<v Speaker 1>that is crazy because last year our contest had a

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<v Speaker 1>lot more people. It wasn't won by a professional gambler. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>it wasn't won by some hot shot handicapper. It was

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<v Speaker 1>won by a rancher from bow Bells, North Dakota who

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<v Speaker 1>came on the show. Lovely Dude said he was going

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<v Speaker 1>to use all of his prize money to buy more cattle.

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<v Speaker 1>Good for him. The price of cattle has three x

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<v Speaker 1>since we did that show. I hope the guy is

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<v Speaker 1>just swimming in cow value right now in.

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<v Speaker 3>Bow Bells, North Dakota.

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<v Speaker 1>Three is a question from producer Matt Our contest is

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<v Speaker 1>nine weeks long, five picks per week. This is forty

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<v Speaker 1>five available wins in total. Out of forty five, how

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<v Speaker 1>many wins do you our listeners think it will take

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<v Speaker 1>to win the grand prize. Matt's prediction, he's expecting someone

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<v Speaker 1>to go on a bit of a heater, is that

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<v Speaker 1>the top finisher will end with a record of thirty

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<v Speaker 1>five and ten seventy eight percent.

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<v Speaker 3>So all right, let's get into it.

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<v Speaker 1>You talked about Kansas City, Los Angeles Chargers visiting. We

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<v Speaker 1>first started talking about this one, I think on Sunday

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<v Speaker 1>it was at three and a half.

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<v Speaker 3>By Tuesday it was at four. It's now at five.

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<v Speaker 3>A lot of other books are five and a half.

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<v Speaker 1>By the middle of yesterday I completely came around to

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<v Speaker 1>your position. I just decided a everything you were saying

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<v Speaker 1>was right. There is going to be extreme weather. The

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<v Speaker 1>Chargers have so many offensive line issues. So much bad

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<v Speaker 1>luck is befalling the Chiefs, whether it's bobbled passes, bad calls,

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<v Speaker 1>all the stuff. That went their way for seventeen straight

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<v Speaker 1>close games. So I'm with you, brother, I'm on the Chiefs.

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<v Speaker 1>I bet him, I bet him. I got the line

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<v Speaker 1>I got with four and a half. I did not

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<v Speaker 1>get the three and a half or the four. I

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<v Speaker 1>got the four and a half because I waited too long.

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<v Speaker 1>But I still went in on it. I'm with you,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm with you, and I love it. Let's put it

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<v Speaker 1>in a contest.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, in normal circumstances, we would be all over the Chargers.

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<v Speaker 2>This is an automatic Chargers play. This is a Chargers line,

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<v Speaker 2>and you know, justin Herbert as a dog, very profitable.

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<v Speaker 2>I believe you know. I'll look through the numbers here,

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<v Speaker 2>but we kind of blindly bet him in this exact spot, right,

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<v Speaker 2>But this is what we talked about. This is unique.

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<v Speaker 2>This man only has one hand without you know, his

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<v Speaker 2>offensive line. Even the backups got hurt in the Eagles game,

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<v Speaker 2>like they lost. I think they're a third string right

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<v Speaker 2>tackle in the Eagles game. So just a nightmare. But again,

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<v Speaker 2>I want to give out these numbers just because in

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<v Speaker 2>the future when I tell people we just you blindly

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<v Speaker 2>bet Herbert in the spot, it's because he tends to

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<v Speaker 2>be really great as a dog in the spot. So

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<v Speaker 2>when the line is above three and a half in

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<v Speaker 2>his career, eleven to two and one against the spread Herbert,

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<v Speaker 2>which is really impressive. You know, you think back to

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<v Speaker 2>what's the matchup with Andy Reid and Harrball. Harrball, He's

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<v Speaker 2>four and zero against the spread when he plays against

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<v Speaker 2>Andy Reid in his career. So they do have their

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<v Speaker 2>number this Chiefs team. But we're we're talking about a

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<v Speaker 2>unique spot here and this in the fact that what

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<v Speaker 2>we just talked about, right, it's all the injuries to

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<v Speaker 2>Herbert and this team and even going back and rewatching

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<v Speaker 2>the Eagles game, Herbert, you know, try to do so

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<v Speaker 2>much with his legs, but even when he couldn't, you're

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<v Speaker 2>trying to pass the ball downfield, his guys just could

0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:29.719
<v Speaker 2>not get any separation. And that was really stood out

0:12:29.760 --> 0:12:31.160
<v Speaker 2>to me as they're just the wide receivers are not

0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:33.800
<v Speaker 2>getting open for him. And you know, Keenan Allen does

0:12:33.840 --> 0:12:35.199
<v Speaker 2>the best he can. He can get open in a

0:12:35.240 --> 0:12:37.600
<v Speaker 2>really quick window, but he's not really someone that's going

0:12:37.640 --> 0:12:39.600
<v Speaker 2>to burn some of his legs obviously. He's someone that's

0:12:39.679 --> 0:12:42.920
<v Speaker 2>much older now and Lad McConkie's been kind of disappointing

0:12:42.960 --> 0:12:45.280
<v Speaker 2>this season for them, So it's it feels like a

0:12:45.280 --> 0:12:48.760
<v Speaker 2>really bad spot for this Chargers team. And you talk

0:12:48.800 --> 0:12:51.520
<v Speaker 2>a little about this Chiefs team, it's got a flip

0:12:51.520 --> 0:12:54.959
<v Speaker 2>at some point, right They they basically won seventeen consecutive

0:12:55.000 --> 0:12:57.719
<v Speaker 2>one score games and now this year they're one and

0:12:57.880 --> 0:13:02.160
<v Speaker 2>six oh and seven against the spread. So it's not

0:13:02.240 --> 0:13:04.520
<v Speaker 2>the best chat we've been to, a little bit of

0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:07.040
<v Speaker 2>a scary spot, but I do have to trust the

0:13:07.080 --> 0:13:09.000
<v Speaker 2>fact that we have a good number. It's still under

0:13:09.040 --> 0:13:11.040
<v Speaker 2>six people listeners can still get under six, where I

0:13:11.040 --> 0:13:13.520
<v Speaker 2>think it's a good number. And I just have major

0:13:13.600 --> 0:13:16.560
<v Speaker 2>questions about this Chargers offense with the injury to Herbert.

0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:19.240
<v Speaker 2>I just the man is one handed and he's gonna

0:13:19.240 --> 0:13:21.240
<v Speaker 2>be outdoors in the elements. It's just I think it's

0:13:21.240 --> 0:13:24.000
<v Speaker 2>too much to overcome Chad. So yeah, I feel gross

0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:26.240
<v Speaker 2>doing it, but feels like this is these X spot

0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:27.319
<v Speaker 2>we have to take the Chiefs.

0:13:27.640 --> 0:13:29.240
<v Speaker 3>I don't feel that gross.

0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:32.120
<v Speaker 2>It's weird even after all those numbers. I mean, Herbert's

0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:33.520
<v Speaker 2>are covering God as a dog man.

0:13:33.720 --> 0:13:38.000
<v Speaker 1>I don't feel that gross because this team, this offensive

0:13:38.040 --> 0:13:42.280
<v Speaker 1>line is in such bad shape. And we've seen what

0:13:42.320 --> 0:13:45.240
<v Speaker 1>the Chiefs can do when they're able to get pressure,

0:13:45.280 --> 0:13:49.520
<v Speaker 1>and how dominant Chris Jones can be, and I feel

0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:51.600
<v Speaker 1>like they've hit rock bottom. It is a team of

0:13:51.679 --> 0:13:54.359
<v Speaker 1>champions that has hit rock bottom.

0:13:56.040 --> 0:13:57.079
<v Speaker 3>The look on.

0:13:57.080 --> 0:14:01.360
<v Speaker 1>Travis Kelsey's face, we talk about so Joe Burrow in

0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:06.040
<v Speaker 1>his press conference somber Travis Kelce. I find him to

0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:09.560
<v Speaker 1>be imminently likable. I think he's handled his career brilliantly.

0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:12.760
<v Speaker 1>He seems to be very well liked by his teammates,

0:14:13.240 --> 0:14:18.360
<v Speaker 1>and he just looked so sad and a prideful athlete

0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:21.240
<v Speaker 1>trying to figure out what the fuck is going on

0:14:21.720 --> 0:14:23.560
<v Speaker 1>and why am I not making any of the plays

0:14:23.600 --> 0:14:26.560
<v Speaker 1>I used to be able to make. And I think

0:14:26.600 --> 0:14:29.480
<v Speaker 1>that they're going to figure something out in this game

0:14:30.320 --> 0:14:33.240
<v Speaker 1>that allows them to execute in a way where they're

0:14:33.280 --> 0:14:36.000
<v Speaker 1>not going to be making the same mistakes, especially in

0:14:36.040 --> 0:14:40.760
<v Speaker 1>conditions that will favor them. So, yeah, the performance by

0:14:40.760 --> 0:14:44.280
<v Speaker 1>that Chargers offensive line was so bad they're going to

0:14:44.280 --> 0:14:45.920
<v Speaker 1>need to pull out all the stops to protect Justin

0:14:45.960 --> 0:14:50.400
<v Speaker 1>Herbert in this game. Yeah, I'm with you. I'm with you,

0:14:50.400 --> 0:14:55.280
<v Speaker 1>you and I Campadres. You knowwhere else were Campadres, Buffalo

0:14:55.360 --> 0:15:00.600
<v Speaker 1>Bill's one point favorites over the New England Patriots. At

0:15:00.640 --> 0:15:02.360
<v Speaker 1>the end of the day, it's a bet on Josh Allen.

0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:06.000
<v Speaker 3>Alert here from Josh Allen.

0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:09.520
<v Speaker 4>Looking for He's got it.

0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:14.240
<v Speaker 2>He's a r he's a timer, he's a football.

0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:15.320
<v Speaker 4>Player, through and through.

0:15:15.160 --> 0:15:16.240
<v Speaker 2>Him here, but it's nothing.

0:15:16.280 --> 0:15:17.520
<v Speaker 4>There we go, Josh.

0:15:18.480 --> 0:15:21.400
<v Speaker 2>He drugs an excuse me touchdown?

0:15:21.680 --> 0:15:24.960
<v Speaker 4>How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone? Goodness,

0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:39.480
<v Speaker 4>there's no fears, no way he was being tons down.

0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:44.160
<v Speaker 2>He's still going, Oh my god. The demands to do

0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:47.200
<v Speaker 2>something about this out of reaches man making.

0:15:47.280 --> 0:15:49.240
<v Speaker 4>Louder and louder.

0:15:50.360 --> 0:15:53.920
<v Speaker 3>Every scenario you can think of.

0:15:54.120 --> 0:15:57.440
<v Speaker 1>You talk about trends. Josh Allen off a lost Josh

0:15:57.520 --> 0:16:00.360
<v Speaker 1>Allen is a favorite of less than three. All of

0:16:00.400 --> 0:16:04.880
<v Speaker 1>it favors Josh Allen. Look back to their game on

0:16:04.920 --> 0:16:08.800
<v Speaker 1>October fifth, which is when the Patriots were really starting

0:16:08.840 --> 0:16:12.040
<v Speaker 1>to roll. It's when people start to recognize, oh, maybe

0:16:12.040 --> 0:16:14.000
<v Speaker 1>this team isn't terrible. It's what got them into the

0:16:14.000 --> 0:16:17.960
<v Speaker 1>position they're in. There were so many mistakes by the

0:16:17.960 --> 0:16:22.320
<v Speaker 1>Bills in that game. They easily could have won that game.

0:16:22.360 --> 0:16:26.360
<v Speaker 1>That was a field goal game, and you're still getting

0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:29.720
<v Speaker 1>a Patriots team now that is at the peak of

0:16:29.720 --> 0:16:34.120
<v Speaker 1>its value, that has everyone behind them, that is still

0:16:34.160 --> 0:16:38.400
<v Speaker 1>missing key components on the offensive line, whose rush defense

0:16:38.520 --> 0:16:43.240
<v Speaker 1>is getting a little bit worse statistically as the season

0:16:43.320 --> 0:16:47.200
<v Speaker 1>goes on. I can see why this game is split

0:16:47.600 --> 0:16:53.160
<v Speaker 1>between the wise guys. But my opinion stands Buffalo Bills.

0:16:54.440 --> 0:16:57.320
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think we're both the mentality, it's really us

0:16:57.360 --> 0:16:59.800
<v Speaker 2>having blind faith and trust in Josh Allen this exact

0:16:59.800 --> 0:17:03.160
<v Speaker 2>same spot against the young and upcoming team. And this

0:17:03.360 --> 0:17:05.840
<v Speaker 2>is how things do happen though in football, right the

0:17:06.720 --> 0:17:10.200
<v Speaker 2>team does eventually break through, the person who dominated the

0:17:10.240 --> 0:17:15.359
<v Speaker 2>division tends to relinkish that powers. And this is a

0:17:15.480 --> 0:17:18.160
<v Speaker 2>unique spot for this this Patriots team. And just when

0:17:18.200 --> 0:17:20.720
<v Speaker 2>I dove into the trends too, I couldn't believe how

0:17:20.760 --> 0:17:23.240
<v Speaker 2>much they favor Vrabel. I knew Vrabel was good after

0:17:23.240 --> 0:17:24.879
<v Speaker 2>a bye week. What do you think his record is

0:17:24.920 --> 0:17:26.040
<v Speaker 2>after a bye week? Chat? I didn't know.

0:17:26.160 --> 0:17:28.760
<v Speaker 3>Is this good seventeen or no?

0:17:30.240 --> 0:17:32.439
<v Speaker 2>I wish Rabel haven't been around that long. He is

0:17:32.680 --> 0:17:35.200
<v Speaker 2>six and one straight up and against the spread off

0:17:35.240 --> 0:17:38.280
<v Speaker 2>of bye week, which that's really impressive for a guy

0:17:38.320 --> 0:17:41.960
<v Speaker 2>that spent his first seven of those years in Tennessee.

0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:44.600
<v Speaker 2>So that's that's probably the most unique stat to me

0:17:44.680 --> 0:17:46.840
<v Speaker 2>of him, is just the fact that he gets his

0:17:46.880 --> 0:17:50.520
<v Speaker 2>guys up for these type of matchups. And so when

0:17:50.760 --> 0:17:54.960
<v Speaker 2>you know, I dove into even more basically this exact

0:17:54.960 --> 0:17:57.680
<v Speaker 2>spot for teams, which again it's a unique spot. It's

0:17:58.760 --> 0:18:01.520
<v Speaker 2>you know, a ten day they've won ten straight games,

0:18:01.600 --> 0:18:04.720
<v Speaker 2>the Patriots, they are now a home dog at home.

0:18:05.480 --> 0:18:07.720
<v Speaker 2>It's only happened like two times in the last like

0:18:07.720 --> 0:18:09.800
<v Speaker 2>twenty years, basically chat and the only other time has

0:18:09.800 --> 0:18:14.720
<v Speaker 2>happened with two starters was Pittsburgh. It was Roethlisberger against

0:18:14.720 --> 0:18:16.680
<v Speaker 2>Tom Brady and Brady basically put up forty one. I

0:18:16.720 --> 0:18:19.119
<v Speaker 2>think he beat him by like thirteen points. So it

0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:21.119
<v Speaker 2>was unique spot, right, Brady was on the road as

0:18:21.119 --> 0:18:24.520
<v Speaker 2>a favorite against Ben Roethlisberger as a home dog after

0:18:24.760 --> 0:18:27.639
<v Speaker 2>you know, a bunch of wins, and I remember that game, right,

0:18:27.680 --> 0:18:30.240
<v Speaker 2>I just remember the Killer Bees and how much hype

0:18:30.240 --> 0:18:32.119
<v Speaker 2>there was and Brady just went in there and just

0:18:32.160 --> 0:18:34.639
<v Speaker 2>dominated that game. So we're kind of banking on that

0:18:34.720 --> 0:18:37.399
<v Speaker 2>here with Josh Allen, Right, I think the general public

0:18:37.440 --> 0:18:39.600
<v Speaker 2>is joining us. I thought this would be a more

0:18:39.600 --> 0:18:41.560
<v Speaker 2>public side. This Patrios team. It really has not worked

0:18:41.560 --> 0:18:46.719
<v Speaker 2>out that way with the money. And you know, the

0:18:46.720 --> 0:18:48.240
<v Speaker 2>more I dove into it, the more I was like,

0:18:48.320 --> 0:18:49.840
<v Speaker 2>oh my god, all this stuff is pointing me to

0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:52.480
<v Speaker 2>this Patriots side. But I just had to trust Josh

0:18:52.480 --> 0:18:54.879
<v Speaker 2>Allen the fact that he did lose them early in

0:18:54.880 --> 0:18:56.920
<v Speaker 2>the year and it's a unique thing where he tends

0:18:56.920 --> 0:18:59.520
<v Speaker 2>to not lose two games in a row. And we're

0:18:59.560 --> 0:19:01.280
<v Speaker 2>about the f find out what they're going to be

0:19:01.280 --> 0:19:03.240
<v Speaker 2>the trendsetter now for the next ten years between the

0:19:03.320 --> 0:19:07.040
<v Speaker 2>Drake May Josh Allen matchup, because right now, Drake Mays

0:19:07.080 --> 0:19:09.440
<v Speaker 2>three and zero against the spread against Josh Allen, which

0:19:09.480 --> 0:19:13.359
<v Speaker 2>is pretty wild to think because last year the Patriots

0:19:13.359 --> 0:19:15.960
<v Speaker 2>were terrible. They were terrible last year, and the fact

0:19:16.000 --> 0:19:18.600
<v Speaker 2>that he's covered both games last year and they started

0:19:18.600 --> 0:19:20.239
<v Speaker 2>this year with a cover and a win out right

0:19:20.359 --> 0:19:23.639
<v Speaker 2>on the road in Buffalo. Maybe I am undervalue in

0:19:23.680 --> 0:19:25.840
<v Speaker 2>this Patriots team continuously. But I just can't get over

0:19:25.880 --> 0:19:28.080
<v Speaker 2>the they have. Like Chad said, they have so many

0:19:28.119 --> 0:19:30.119
<v Speaker 2>weaknesses and holes right now that can be exploited. They

0:19:30.160 --> 0:19:32.640
<v Speaker 2>just have not faced any teams that can exploit those weaknesses.

0:19:32.680 --> 0:19:35.439
<v Speaker 2>So I love this one just like you love I

0:19:35.440 --> 0:19:37.160
<v Speaker 2>love the Bills. I think we're getting a great number,

0:19:37.200 --> 0:19:40.480
<v Speaker 2>but I could not get over those vable stats after

0:19:40.520 --> 0:19:42.840
<v Speaker 2>a bye week. Maybe I'm stepping into here, but I

0:19:42.880 --> 0:19:44.600
<v Speaker 2>think this guy's due for aggression to the meme with

0:19:44.600 --> 0:19:47.240
<v Speaker 2>those type of numbers. That's just insane, those kind of numbers.

0:19:47.480 --> 0:19:48.639
<v Speaker 3>We're both stepping in it.

0:19:49.000 --> 0:19:52.600
<v Speaker 1>This is a season making game for either of these teams.

0:19:52.680 --> 0:19:55.000
<v Speaker 1>It's a playoff. It's a playoff game, it really is.

0:19:55.560 --> 0:19:59.040
<v Speaker 1>So is Josh Allen the reigning MVP. Do they have

0:19:59.119 --> 0:20:03.120
<v Speaker 1>a dominant running does it travel well? All those things

0:20:03.480 --> 0:20:07.359
<v Speaker 1>still exist. I'm going to bet on Josh Allen. We

0:20:08.840 --> 0:20:13.480
<v Speaker 1>are going to bet on Josh Allen. Will we bet

0:20:13.520 --> 0:20:17.680
<v Speaker 1>on the Arizona Cardinals? Who are that nine and a half?

0:20:18.000 --> 0:20:22.359
<v Speaker 1>Simon is just holding on against the Houston Texans.

0:20:22.600 --> 0:20:23.240
<v Speaker 3>It's juiced.

0:20:24.080 --> 0:20:26.360
<v Speaker 1>I think by Sunday it's going to get to ten.

0:20:26.440 --> 0:20:28.879
<v Speaker 1>I think by Sunday, when the public rolls in and

0:20:28.880 --> 0:20:34.000
<v Speaker 1>starts betting, we're going to see that number increase. Still

0:20:35.040 --> 0:20:38.720
<v Speaker 1>sitting at nine and a half, though classic Bilow Sell

0:20:38.800 --> 0:20:42.320
<v Speaker 1>high game right, the line has not budged, even though

0:20:42.400 --> 0:20:45.760
<v Speaker 1>all the bets are coming in on the Texans. That

0:20:45.880 --> 0:20:48.840
<v Speaker 1>tells you that there's resistance from the wise guys. They're

0:20:48.840 --> 0:20:53.440
<v Speaker 1>betting on the Cardinals. I have not played this game yet.

0:20:53.480 --> 0:20:56.919
<v Speaker 1>I'm still waiting for it to get to ten. I

0:20:56.920 --> 0:20:58.960
<v Speaker 1>don't know if it'll make our contest. I think there's

0:20:58.960 --> 0:21:01.760
<v Speaker 1>a couple other underdogs we like a little bit more.

0:21:02.560 --> 0:21:09.160
<v Speaker 1>But are you tempted at all by the reeling, creating, confused,

0:21:10.400 --> 0:21:15.720
<v Speaker 1>lacking in defense, struggling Arizona Cardinals.

0:21:17.000 --> 0:21:18.760
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and this could be the type of game where

0:21:19.359 --> 0:21:22.160
<v Speaker 2>if you're if you don't really love either side, you can,

0:21:22.280 --> 0:21:23.639
<v Speaker 2>Like we've talked about a little bit the beginning of

0:21:23.640 --> 0:21:26.000
<v Speaker 2>the year, it's a good bet that just bindly brought

0:21:26.040 --> 0:21:28.520
<v Speaker 2>blindly bet the under in East Texas game, just because

0:21:28.560 --> 0:21:31.120
<v Speaker 2>their offenses so question on, their defense is so dominant.

0:21:31.160 --> 0:21:33.040
<v Speaker 2>And you know, this year has lived up to that. Right.

0:21:33.040 --> 0:21:35.920
<v Speaker 2>They're ten and three to the under this season, even

0:21:35.960 --> 0:21:39.400
<v Speaker 2>going back his last twenty two starts CJ, He's seventeen

0:21:39.400 --> 0:21:42.240
<v Speaker 2>and five to the under. So if you if you

0:21:42.240 --> 0:21:44.040
<v Speaker 2>don't like either side, I guess that's the move. But

0:21:44.160 --> 0:21:47.840
<v Speaker 2>I I do really like the Cardinals here. I think

0:21:47.920 --> 0:21:48.879
<v Speaker 2>off the top of my head, I can think of

0:21:49.000 --> 0:21:52.560
<v Speaker 2>one other time the Texans were this pick of favor

0:21:52.600 --> 0:21:54.760
<v Speaker 2>with CJ. I believe they are eight or an eight

0:21:54.800 --> 0:21:59.480
<v Speaker 2>and a half point favorite against the Tennessee Titans. They

0:21:59.560 --> 0:22:03.919
<v Speaker 2>lost that game outright, So just a little perspective of like, Okay,

0:22:04.000 --> 0:22:05.560
<v Speaker 2>the reason that you haven't seen the Texans this pick

0:22:05.600 --> 0:22:08.040
<v Speaker 2>a favorite, especially with CJ, is just they tend to

0:22:08.080 --> 0:22:11.439
<v Speaker 2>not be deserving of it or perform. And your betters

0:22:11.440 --> 0:22:13.679
<v Speaker 2>have taken that, you know, taken that where it's like

0:22:13.720 --> 0:22:16.080
<v Speaker 2>anytime she's been a big dog or a big favorite,

0:22:16.119 --> 0:22:18.200
<v Speaker 2>I should say he's been bet down. That's why this

0:22:18.280 --> 0:22:19.920
<v Speaker 2>number is. No, he's never had a number this big,

0:22:19.960 --> 0:22:22.120
<v Speaker 2>and this is a unique spot where that's that's how

0:22:22.200 --> 0:22:24.480
<v Speaker 2>dead the Cardinals are to the general public. They're just

0:22:25.119 --> 0:22:27.200
<v Speaker 2>totally off of this team, totally leaving them for dead.

0:22:27.240 --> 0:22:31.359
<v Speaker 2>And I'm just looking at the numbers. Yes, this is

0:22:31.400 --> 0:22:34.040
<v Speaker 2>not a good matchup for Brissette, right you dive into it.

0:22:34.040 --> 0:22:35.320
<v Speaker 2>This is going to be a game where he's going

0:22:35.359 --> 0:22:37.119
<v Speaker 2>to be thrown off his point a lot where he

0:22:37.160 --> 0:22:38.840
<v Speaker 2>wants to throw from in the pocket, he will be

0:22:38.880 --> 0:22:40.760
<v Speaker 2>moved a lot. That's just that's just gonna be the

0:22:40.760 --> 0:22:42.040
<v Speaker 2>deal of this Texas team. They just have one of

0:22:42.040 --> 0:22:44.480
<v Speaker 2>the best pass rushes in all football, and we've seen

0:22:44.520 --> 0:22:47.080
<v Speaker 2>that off season, right they just have been dominant rushing

0:22:47.119 --> 0:22:49.960
<v Speaker 2>the quarterbacks. So you know, like Chad said, I'm not

0:22:49.960 --> 0:22:52.119
<v Speaker 2>going to force this one in. I do like the Cardinals,

0:22:52.119 --> 0:22:54.480
<v Speaker 2>but I'm with you. It's I'm still taking the nine

0:22:54.480 --> 0:22:56.360
<v Speaker 2>and a half, but the ten. That's why I feel

0:22:56.440 --> 0:22:59.600
<v Speaker 2>more confident, just because I just have such leaking confidence

0:22:59.680 --> 0:23:01.840
<v Speaker 2>right now, not so much in Brissett, but just the

0:23:01.840 --> 0:23:03.600
<v Speaker 2>head coach. I just feel like he's totally lost his

0:23:03.640 --> 0:23:06.000
<v Speaker 2>locker room in the Cardinals. And I'm interesting how they

0:23:06.080 --> 0:23:08.880
<v Speaker 2>end this next four games because we've seen a lot

0:23:08.880 --> 0:23:10.960
<v Speaker 2>of reports, a lot of really respectable guys in the

0:23:11.000 --> 0:23:14.400
<v Speaker 2>media saying he might be out, like it might be done.

0:23:14.440 --> 0:23:16.520
<v Speaker 2>Him and Coyler might be both out the door come

0:23:16.520 --> 0:23:19.040
<v Speaker 2>the end of the season. So it's gonna be interesting

0:23:19.040 --> 0:23:20.680
<v Speaker 2>how these teams plays for them the next four games

0:23:20.720 --> 0:23:23.520
<v Speaker 2>after getting just absolutely blown out their past past.

0:23:23.560 --> 0:23:27.480
<v Speaker 1>Feel we do owe the people of brass balls so

0:23:28.040 --> 0:23:31.359
<v Speaker 1>we can we can think about this one. I have

0:23:31.440 --> 0:23:33.640
<v Speaker 1>an idea. You and I forgot to discuss this before

0:23:33.680 --> 0:23:35.840
<v Speaker 1>we came on the air. I have an idea of

0:23:35.920 --> 0:23:39.240
<v Speaker 1>what I think brass balls should be. It's not it's

0:23:39.280 --> 0:23:41.359
<v Speaker 1>not this game. I'll be curious to see if you

0:23:41.400 --> 0:23:45.520
<v Speaker 1>and I agree on it. So let's continue. Let's put

0:23:45.520 --> 0:23:47.360
<v Speaker 1>a pin in that. It's just a reminder for both

0:23:47.400 --> 0:23:50.960
<v Speaker 1>of us. Cincinnati two and a half point underdogs at Baltimore.

0:23:51.720 --> 0:23:53.520
<v Speaker 1>I don't think this is gonna make it, but it's

0:23:54.280 --> 0:23:58.000
<v Speaker 1>It was a newsworthy game to begin with, because it's

0:23:58.040 --> 0:24:00.359
<v Speaker 1>Cincinnati and Baltimore and it's just a great matchup. But

0:24:00.400 --> 0:24:02.800
<v Speaker 1>it's also a great matchup of teams that are reeling.

0:24:03.320 --> 0:24:07.800
<v Speaker 1>And I'm sorry, it's Baltimore Cincinnati, by the way, not Baltimore.

0:24:07.840 --> 0:24:09.080
<v Speaker 3>Not Cincinnati at Baltimore.

0:24:09.400 --> 0:24:13.399
<v Speaker 1>And I can't really get there on either team right now.

0:24:14.000 --> 0:24:15.080
<v Speaker 3>Joe is so sad.

0:24:15.760 --> 0:24:19.640
<v Speaker 1>Lamar hasn't really been playing as well as we expected

0:24:19.680 --> 0:24:23.119
<v Speaker 1>him to. The defenses for both teams are pretty bad.

0:24:24.440 --> 0:24:26.359
<v Speaker 1>I find no edge here. I definitely don't want to

0:24:26.359 --> 0:24:27.960
<v Speaker 1>play it in the contest. I just wanted to bring

0:24:28.000 --> 0:24:32.080
<v Speaker 1>it up because he's in sharp calls and Joe's feeling blue.

0:24:32.720 --> 0:24:34.400
<v Speaker 1>He's not Joe cool, he's Joe blue.

0:24:35.480 --> 0:24:37.119
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, And I took a little bit a shame on me.

0:24:37.160 --> 0:24:37.600
<v Speaker 1>I know.

0:24:38.680 --> 0:24:43.200
<v Speaker 2>I usually don't like just continuously betting guys who are underdogs,

0:24:43.200 --> 0:24:44.879
<v Speaker 2>because eventually, like you said, it's probably gonna go the

0:24:44.840 --> 0:24:48.840
<v Speaker 2>other way. But Joe Burrow as a dog, he just covers.

0:24:49.000 --> 0:24:51.040
<v Speaker 2>And I've given out those numbers, especially when he gets

0:24:51.040 --> 0:24:53.000
<v Speaker 2>above three, and this number is heading that way. Like

0:24:53.119 --> 0:24:54.960
<v Speaker 2>since we've been talking the numbers moving the three at a

0:24:54.960 --> 0:24:57.560
<v Speaker 2>couple of books, so I talked about this number went

0:24:57.600 --> 0:24:59.399
<v Speaker 2>down to one and a half. Joe Burrow gave the

0:24:59.440 --> 0:25:03.240
<v Speaker 2>most somber, depressing interview ever, talking about he's not having

0:25:03.240 --> 0:25:04.520
<v Speaker 2>fun anymore and he doesn't know if he loves the

0:25:04.520 --> 0:25:06.760
<v Speaker 2>game as much as he used to. Now the number

0:25:06.800 --> 0:25:09.720
<v Speaker 2>is moving up to three, so I'll check. Maybe there's

0:25:09.720 --> 0:25:11.680
<v Speaker 2>something I'm missing, maybe there's an injury I don't know about.

0:25:12.480 --> 0:25:15.919
<v Speaker 2>But everything I've seen this feels like two teams going

0:25:15.920 --> 0:25:19.320
<v Speaker 2>in totally different directions. Like this Ravens team. We keep

0:25:19.359 --> 0:25:21.359
<v Speaker 2>thinking they're gonna figure it out and be that team

0:25:21.400 --> 0:25:24.240
<v Speaker 2>we saw these last five six years. Right, they're gonna

0:25:24.240 --> 0:25:26.600
<v Speaker 2>figure it out, But you keep looking at it the

0:25:26.680 --> 0:25:28.720
<v Speaker 2>under Alane number. It's just Lamar is not as good.

0:25:28.880 --> 0:25:30.600
<v Speaker 2>He simply is not as good as he's been in

0:25:30.600 --> 0:25:34.200
<v Speaker 2>previous years. And yeah, that game unlucky, right, they probably

0:25:34.200 --> 0:25:35.960
<v Speaker 2>should have won it, decided by the referees, whatever you

0:25:36.000 --> 0:25:37.920
<v Speaker 2>want to say. They we're not gonna cover that game.

0:25:38.000 --> 0:25:40.480
<v Speaker 2>So that's that's another game with the market overvalue in them.

0:25:40.880 --> 0:25:43.280
<v Speaker 2>And it feels like it's going the same way here.

0:25:43.320 --> 0:25:45.800
<v Speaker 2>Like if this is now up to three, I kind

0:25:45.840 --> 0:25:47.200
<v Speaker 2>of love the Bengals. If they get the three and

0:25:47.240 --> 0:25:49.200
<v Speaker 2>a half in our contest, we're gonna have a real

0:25:49.200 --> 0:25:52.800
<v Speaker 2>conversation comes Sunday. So just look at all the different metrics.

0:25:53.200 --> 0:25:58.440
<v Speaker 2>Even when Lamar and this Ravens team were dominant, absolutely dominant,

0:25:58.680 --> 0:26:01.360
<v Speaker 2>they've struggled against the NFC North. He's five and nine

0:26:01.400 --> 0:26:04.440
<v Speaker 2>against the spread against his division. When he's on the road,

0:26:04.480 --> 0:26:06.520
<v Speaker 2>he's three and five against the spread in his division.

0:26:06.720 --> 0:26:10.439
<v Speaker 2>So Lamar, through his dominant years, he's always struggled with

0:26:10.440 --> 0:26:13.400
<v Speaker 2>his own divisional opponents. And we've saw them just play

0:26:13.560 --> 0:26:15.879
<v Speaker 2>you know a couple of weeks ago. The Bengals are

0:26:15.880 --> 0:26:17.159
<v Speaker 2>gonna be able to move the ball. We have no

0:26:17.200 --> 0:26:19.280
<v Speaker 2>doubt about that. We just is Lamar going to show

0:26:19.320 --> 0:26:21.119
<v Speaker 2>up and move the ball against his Bengals defense. That

0:26:21.560 --> 0:26:23.800
<v Speaker 2>is super suspect he should be able to. Yeah, but

0:26:24.480 --> 0:26:26.159
<v Speaker 2>I think Joe's gonna keep us in this one. So

0:26:26.880 --> 0:26:28.400
<v Speaker 2>I'm with you. I'm not going to force it. I'm

0:26:28.400 --> 0:26:29.760
<v Speaker 2>not going to force it two and a half because

0:26:29.800 --> 0:26:31.960
<v Speaker 2>I do think people listening to this you'll keep getting

0:26:32.000 --> 0:26:33.640
<v Speaker 2>a better number, and there are threes out there. So

0:26:34.160 --> 0:26:35.440
<v Speaker 2>right now two and a half, I'm with you. I

0:26:35.440 --> 0:26:37.679
<v Speaker 2>wouldn't make this into the contest, but three and a half,

0:26:37.880 --> 0:26:39.800
<v Speaker 2>that's gonna be a real conversation with Joe. He's just

0:26:40.280 --> 0:26:42.760
<v Speaker 2>as a dog. I talk about a dog bigger than three.

0:26:43.000 --> 0:26:45.720
<v Speaker 2>He's nineteen to three against the spread, So it's just

0:26:45.800 --> 0:26:48.120
<v Speaker 2>that's just an incredible number. And he's two and zero

0:26:48.119 --> 0:26:50.600
<v Speaker 2>this season since he's been back as a dog bigger

0:26:50.640 --> 0:26:51.119
<v Speaker 2>than three.

0:26:51.800 --> 0:26:56.280
<v Speaker 1>Simon, The Cleveland Browns are visiting the Chicago Bears, and

0:26:56.480 --> 0:27:00.159
<v Speaker 1>that number has stayed at seven and a half at

0:27:00.160 --> 0:27:03.040
<v Speaker 1>it yet, let me ask you this, though it's going

0:27:03.119 --> 0:27:08.720
<v Speaker 1>to be so cold in Chicago, both teams are going

0:27:08.760 --> 0:27:11.119
<v Speaker 1>to want to run the ball. This is not going

0:27:11.160 --> 0:27:13.200
<v Speaker 1>to be a we said this last week, It's not

0:27:13.240 --> 0:27:15.600
<v Speaker 1>going to be a Shador Sanders game. It's it's going

0:27:15.640 --> 0:27:18.520
<v Speaker 1>to be a Cleveland Browns defense game this week. It's

0:27:18.520 --> 0:27:20.359
<v Speaker 1>not going to be a Shador Sanders game. It's going

0:27:20.400 --> 0:27:24.600
<v Speaker 1>to be a Quinche on Judskins game. It's going to

0:27:24.680 --> 0:27:28.280
<v Speaker 1>be an amazing rush offense against one of the best

0:27:28.440 --> 0:27:31.000
<v Speaker 1>rush defenses. It's going to be what can be an

0:27:31.000 --> 0:27:34.199
<v Speaker 1>effective rush offense against in the Bears, one of the

0:27:34.280 --> 0:27:40.720
<v Speaker 1>worst rush defenses. Do we ignore the line value because

0:27:40.720 --> 0:27:44.000
<v Speaker 1>we are in love with the Bears? Do we not

0:27:44.200 --> 0:27:46.840
<v Speaker 1>play a game that we would nine times out of

0:27:46.880 --> 0:27:51.760
<v Speaker 1>ten play because we lost with the Browns the past

0:27:51.840 --> 0:27:53.640
<v Speaker 1>week by betting on their defense.

0:27:54.560 --> 0:27:58.440
<v Speaker 3>Isn't this what we do on this show? Backing the Browns?

0:27:59.400 --> 0:28:01.560
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I'm with you, Like I've come around, I'm going

0:28:01.600 --> 0:28:03.520
<v Speaker 2>to back the Browns. I don't feel good about it.

0:28:03.560 --> 0:28:07.240
<v Speaker 2>I'm just I am Yeah, I'm just worried. They've quit

0:28:07.320 --> 0:28:10.600
<v Speaker 2>on their coach end this season and we're basically been

0:28:10.680 --> 0:28:13.040
<v Speaker 2>this one because the Browns, as bad as they've been

0:28:13.080 --> 0:28:15.720
<v Speaker 2>this year, they've won a bunch of games outright, when

0:28:15.720 --> 0:28:17.320
<v Speaker 2>then the spread is above seven and a half, like

0:28:17.359 --> 0:28:20.919
<v Speaker 2>they've been pretty dominant for some reason, when they're big underdogs,

0:28:20.920 --> 0:28:24.400
<v Speaker 2>and you know, as a Bears fan, this is by

0:28:24.480 --> 0:28:26.840
<v Speaker 2>far the biggest spread of Kailbillim's career, he's never been

0:28:26.880 --> 0:28:30.520
<v Speaker 2>a seven a half point favorite, so unique spot. The

0:28:30.560 --> 0:28:33.439
<v Speaker 2>trends obviously hate the Chicago in this spot, just like

0:28:33.440 --> 0:28:35.080
<v Speaker 2>they did last week. Right, I gave you those stats.

0:28:35.080 --> 0:28:37.440
<v Speaker 2>I think they're one and eleven against the spread against

0:28:37.440 --> 0:28:40.000
<v Speaker 2>Green Bay. Well it's not much better the week after

0:28:40.000 --> 0:28:42.720
<v Speaker 2>they played Green Bay. So since twenty nineteen, green Bay

0:28:43.160 --> 0:28:45.400
<v Speaker 2>one eight and one against the spread. After they've played

0:28:45.680 --> 0:28:48.600
<v Speaker 2>the Packers when they're a favorite, the following game, they're

0:28:48.640 --> 0:28:51.680
<v Speaker 2>zero and three against the spread, So, you know, not ideal.

0:28:51.720 --> 0:28:53.000
<v Speaker 2>It seems like the type of thing where they put

0:28:53.040 --> 0:28:57.480
<v Speaker 2>so much emotion. So much of that divisional game makes sense, right,

0:28:57.560 --> 0:28:59.560
<v Speaker 2>especially now they're playing the Browns. Why wouldn't they have

0:28:59.560 --> 0:29:02.520
<v Speaker 2>a letdown game? Right? This is not a game that's

0:29:02.560 --> 0:29:04.040
<v Speaker 2>it's gonna be tough to get up to, let alone.

0:29:04.160 --> 0:29:05.880
<v Speaker 2>Chad said, They're going to be walking outside, it's gonna

0:29:05.880 --> 0:29:08.240
<v Speaker 2>be hitting in the face minus ten degrees and wind chill.

0:29:08.640 --> 0:29:11.000
<v Speaker 2>It's going to be a truly miserable experience that game.

0:29:11.120 --> 0:29:14.160
<v Speaker 2>So I love it, like this is my favorite type

0:29:14.200 --> 0:29:18.200
<v Speaker 2>of football games, the old school frozen field and it's

0:29:18.280 --> 0:29:21.840
<v Speaker 2>just the best. So I'll be with you on this

0:29:21.880 --> 0:29:25.680
<v Speaker 2>Cleveland side. They're just like I said, they just they're

0:29:25.760 --> 0:29:28.160
<v Speaker 2>making me lea confidence. I just can't believe how bad

0:29:28.320 --> 0:29:30.760
<v Speaker 2>the defense was against Tennessee last week against the run.

0:29:30.880 --> 0:29:34.200
<v Speaker 2>It was just alarming because they've been so dominant this season.

0:29:34.280 --> 0:29:36.720
<v Speaker 2>So try not to overreact. We expect to Cleveland to

0:29:36.720 --> 0:29:39.960
<v Speaker 2>bounce back here, especially defensively, but my god, I'm happy

0:29:39.960 --> 0:29:41.640
<v Speaker 2>if we can avoid this one other contests. Jet.

0:29:42.560 --> 0:29:46.720
<v Speaker 1>I don't have it making the contest right now. I

0:29:46.760 --> 0:29:52.120
<v Speaker 1>think there's other games. It's also an interesting brass balls opportunity.

0:29:52.920 --> 0:29:54.920
<v Speaker 1>It's not where I want to land on brass balls.

0:29:54.920 --> 0:29:58.280
<v Speaker 1>I got another one that's a contender, but I just

0:29:58.320 --> 0:30:01.240
<v Speaker 1>want to raise it that you both like the Browns.

0:30:01.960 --> 0:30:03.800
<v Speaker 1>I haven't pulled the trigger on it yet. I'm a

0:30:03.800 --> 0:30:09.360
<v Speaker 1>little bit nervous about it, but it's there. It's there

0:30:09.400 --> 0:30:11.920
<v Speaker 1>for the taking, and it's what we would normally do.

0:30:12.880 --> 0:30:16.760
<v Speaker 1>Detroit visiting Los Angeles. Rams talked about it under sharp calls.

0:30:17.400 --> 0:30:20.480
<v Speaker 1>This was a game you quietly talked about on Tuesday

0:30:20.520 --> 0:30:24.040
<v Speaker 1>with like a weird We've been doing this a long

0:30:24.080 --> 0:30:29.280
<v Speaker 1>time and I get like you mentioned a game.

0:30:30.480 --> 0:30:33.840
<v Speaker 3>You say it in a way that feels.

0:30:34.800 --> 0:30:37.280
<v Speaker 1>Like you almost don't want me to hear it, like

0:30:37.680 --> 0:30:39.960
<v Speaker 1>you like it so much, you just want to say

0:30:40.000 --> 0:30:43.920
<v Speaker 1>you like it because you're obligated to say truthful information

0:30:44.160 --> 0:30:47.200
<v Speaker 1>and your honest opinions on this show. But you'd prefer

0:30:47.320 --> 0:30:50.920
<v Speaker 1>nobody hear it at all. That was my takeaway from

0:30:50.960 --> 0:30:54.440
<v Speaker 1>the rams. The rams were five and a half. That

0:30:54.480 --> 0:30:57.400
<v Speaker 1>line's moving, it's moving in the rams direction. It's as

0:30:57.400 --> 0:30:59.600
<v Speaker 1>six at hard Rock. I've seen some six and a

0:30:59.640 --> 0:31:05.360
<v Speaker 1>half pop up. Am I misinterpreting this? Am I over?

0:31:05.520 --> 0:31:07.480
<v Speaker 3>Am? I? Am I putting too much into it?

0:31:08.160 --> 0:31:10.400
<v Speaker 2>No, not at all. I just again, this is a weird,

0:31:10.560 --> 0:31:12.640
<v Speaker 2>a weird job. It's a load of a juggling act.

0:31:12.840 --> 0:31:15.160
<v Speaker 2>I have people that pay. I know people don't believe it,

0:31:15.200 --> 0:31:16.960
<v Speaker 2>but people do pay in same amount of money for

0:31:17.080 --> 0:31:19.480
<v Speaker 2>my picks. I always have to give them the best

0:31:19.520 --> 0:31:21.560
<v Speaker 2>of the number, especially when if I like a game

0:31:21.600 --> 0:31:23.160
<v Speaker 2>a lot. So yeah, it was a little bit of

0:31:23.160 --> 0:31:25.440
<v Speaker 2>tongue in cheek. I showed my hand a little bit

0:31:25.480 --> 0:31:27.360
<v Speaker 2>that I really love this spot. I didn't want to

0:31:27.360 --> 0:31:28.720
<v Speaker 2>say too much of because I didn't want people to

0:31:28.720 --> 0:31:31.200
<v Speaker 2>miss the best of the number, which it's going now.

0:31:31.280 --> 0:31:33.400
<v Speaker 2>Like you said, it's it's hitting six almost every book,

0:31:33.520 --> 0:31:37.280
<v Speaker 2>So hopefully my client's got hopefully fans of the show

0:31:37.280 --> 0:31:39.600
<v Speaker 2>got it. But yeah, I love the spot. I love

0:31:39.640 --> 0:31:44.120
<v Speaker 2>the situation this Lions team. Sure can they cover and

0:31:44.160 --> 0:31:46.440
<v Speaker 2>win this game like they have the last four years

0:31:46.440 --> 0:31:49.239
<v Speaker 2>with Campbell and the golf combo. Yeah, but we've been

0:31:49.280 --> 0:31:51.320
<v Speaker 2>talking about it. Just it's not hitting like it used to.

0:31:51.480 --> 0:31:54.120
<v Speaker 2>There is something different about this team, and other than

0:31:54.160 --> 0:31:56.560
<v Speaker 2>just the injuries, I feel like we've seen the Ben

0:31:56.640 --> 0:31:58.920
<v Speaker 2>Johnson effect really affect this team. They're just not the

0:31:58.920 --> 0:32:01.920
<v Speaker 2>same offensively spec and you have a guy like Dan

0:32:01.960 --> 0:32:04.080
<v Speaker 2>Campbell going for it every time he can on fourth

0:32:04.080 --> 0:32:05.760
<v Speaker 2>and two, fourth and three. And I've been thinking about

0:32:05.800 --> 0:32:08.760
<v Speaker 2>situationally where they're on the field or what the best

0:32:08.800 --> 0:32:11.920
<v Speaker 2>move is. And I can give all the stats if

0:32:11.960 --> 0:32:15.160
<v Speaker 2>you want about how great Golf is as a dog.

0:32:15.280 --> 0:32:18.200
<v Speaker 2>Right we know him and Campbell four point hunderdog or

0:32:18.200 --> 0:32:21.840
<v Speaker 2>more seventeen to three against the spread. You know, they

0:32:21.960 --> 0:32:24.320
<v Speaker 2>just they cover in this exact spot. It's what they've

0:32:24.360 --> 0:32:27.880
<v Speaker 2>done these last four years together. And I get that,

0:32:28.000 --> 0:32:30.080
<v Speaker 2>but I've talked about I just think there's something different,

0:32:30.120 --> 0:32:34.000
<v Speaker 2>and it's it's mcveigh's month. It's December. McVeigh since twenty

0:32:34.000 --> 0:32:36.200
<v Speaker 2>twenty one, sixteen to three against the spread in December.

0:32:37.360 --> 0:32:39.560
<v Speaker 2>The matchup, when I really break it down look into it,

0:32:40.120 --> 0:32:42.360
<v Speaker 2>I just see so many advantages for this Rams team

0:32:42.440 --> 0:32:46.800
<v Speaker 2>to attack this offensive line of Detroit. On the flip side,

0:32:47.400 --> 0:32:50.120
<v Speaker 2>you know, praise to the Detroit run defense. I think

0:32:50.160 --> 0:32:52.640
<v Speaker 2>they haven't had one hundred rusher all season and they've

0:32:52.640 --> 0:32:55.880
<v Speaker 2>been really dominating that aspect. But I think it's because

0:32:55.880 --> 0:32:58.000
<v Speaker 2>their secondary is so bad. Why would teams run it

0:32:58.040 --> 0:33:00.120
<v Speaker 2>where you can just pick up trunk yards every time

0:33:00.160 --> 0:33:03.080
<v Speaker 2>you drop back? And I think Pooka right now is

0:33:03.760 --> 0:33:05.440
<v Speaker 2>if he's not the number one receiver in the league

0:33:05.480 --> 0:33:08.080
<v Speaker 2>because of you know, Jackson Smith and Jigba, he's number

0:33:08.120 --> 0:33:10.120
<v Speaker 2>two in all the categories. He has the most receptions,

0:33:10.120 --> 0:33:13.360
<v Speaker 2>like yards, all that stuff. He's right behind JSN. And

0:33:13.520 --> 0:33:16.200
<v Speaker 2>on the flip side, we've talked with DeVante Adams. He's

0:33:16.240 --> 0:33:18.479
<v Speaker 2>probably what the fourth or fifth best receiver in football.

0:33:18.480 --> 0:33:21.320
<v Speaker 2>He's got like fourteen touchdowns. So it's like it talk

0:33:21.400 --> 0:33:23.640
<v Speaker 2>about a dream scenario for the stafford in this matchup

0:33:23.640 --> 0:33:26.760
<v Speaker 2>indoors at home? Could she be in a shootout?

0:33:26.800 --> 0:33:26.880
<v Speaker 4>Right?

0:33:26.880 --> 0:33:28.240
<v Speaker 2>If you want to take a position in that way.

0:33:28.320 --> 0:33:30.760
<v Speaker 2>But I just feel like this type of game where

0:33:30.760 --> 0:33:33.360
<v Speaker 2>they're gonna try to take away Gibbs, make Golf beat

0:33:33.440 --> 0:33:35.760
<v Speaker 2>him downfield, and we've seen it. Golf has not done

0:33:35.800 --> 0:33:37.800
<v Speaker 2>well with pressure in his face, and it's the exact

0:33:37.800 --> 0:33:40.760
<v Speaker 2>type of game they'll get that. So yeah, I honestly

0:33:40.760 --> 0:33:45.760
<v Speaker 2>wanted to make this our our bet, but unfortunately it's

0:33:45.800 --> 0:33:48.479
<v Speaker 2>moved too much, like it's it's minus six, which I'm

0:33:48.480 --> 0:33:50.560
<v Speaker 2>still betting to six. But if this was five and

0:33:50.600 --> 0:33:53.000
<v Speaker 2>a half, chat would I think we probably could agreed

0:33:53.040 --> 0:33:54.520
<v Speaker 2>on this being the pick for the day. But it's no.

0:33:54.640 --> 0:33:57.680
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's not gonna be a brass balls. I think

0:33:57.720 --> 0:34:01.000
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna have to do something even brass and ballsier

0:34:01.560 --> 0:34:04.440
<v Speaker 1>for brass balls. But we both love the Rams here.

0:34:04.480 --> 0:34:06.720
<v Speaker 1>We both got into the Rams five and a half.

0:34:06.760 --> 0:34:09.319
<v Speaker 1>I hope everyone was listening on Tuesday, got the five

0:34:09.360 --> 0:34:11.200
<v Speaker 1>and a half. If you can get the six, great

0:34:11.360 --> 0:34:13.520
<v Speaker 1>get the six that you didn't get the best of it,

0:34:13.560 --> 0:34:17.360
<v Speaker 1>but you know it's still a good number. The matchup

0:34:17.400 --> 0:34:20.320
<v Speaker 1>here to me, you just said is the key. I

0:34:20.400 --> 0:34:23.200
<v Speaker 1>don't know what defense the Rams the Lions are going

0:34:23.280 --> 0:34:27.080
<v Speaker 1>to play like they tried playing zone. It was a

0:34:27.080 --> 0:34:30.320
<v Speaker 1>little bit more effective against the Cowboys, but the Rams

0:34:30.360 --> 0:34:33.720
<v Speaker 1>are not the Cowboys, like they can do it all.

0:34:34.440 --> 0:34:38.080
<v Speaker 1>Matthew Stafford is so good right now. Puka Nakua is

0:34:38.200 --> 0:34:43.640
<v Speaker 1>so good right now. They're playing that thirteen personnel. They

0:34:43.680 --> 0:34:47.640
<v Speaker 1>can deceive teams in so many different ways. They can

0:34:47.680 --> 0:34:50.480
<v Speaker 1>power run game, they can find guys open in the

0:34:50.480 --> 0:34:52.480
<v Speaker 1>middle of that zone. If that's what the Lions decided

0:34:52.480 --> 0:34:55.040
<v Speaker 1>to play, which they really haven't. They've done it once

0:34:55.200 --> 0:34:58.720
<v Speaker 1>this whole season. They're a Mando man team, and Stafford

0:34:58.719 --> 0:35:01.520
<v Speaker 1>eats up Manda Man. So it's a damned if you do,

0:35:01.680 --> 0:35:05.439
<v Speaker 1>damned if you don't scenario defensively for the Lions, who

0:35:05.520 --> 0:35:08.080
<v Speaker 1>have lost one of their best defensive players in Brian Branch.

0:35:09.480 --> 0:35:12.879
<v Speaker 1>Carolina at the New Orleans Saints. The New Orleans Saints

0:35:12.920 --> 0:35:15.279
<v Speaker 1>plus two and a half, this was Simon says, there

0:35:15.320 --> 0:35:18.040
<v Speaker 1>were some threes available right after we got off the

0:35:18.080 --> 0:35:20.400
<v Speaker 1>air on Tuesday. For much of Tuesday, there was some

0:35:20.440 --> 0:35:22.200
<v Speaker 1>threes there. It's back down to two and a half.

0:35:23.000 --> 0:35:27.799
<v Speaker 1>I don't I don't think it's gonna last. So, I mean,

0:35:27.840 --> 0:35:29.799
<v Speaker 1>I don't think the threes will. I think it could

0:35:29.800 --> 0:35:32.320
<v Speaker 1>get back to three, but I don't think the threes

0:35:32.320 --> 0:35:33.120
<v Speaker 1>are gonna last.

0:35:33.560 --> 0:35:36.440
<v Speaker 3>Uh. We hate betting against the Panthers.

0:35:36.880 --> 0:35:39.600
<v Speaker 1>We hate it, especially when they got a chance to

0:35:39.680 --> 0:35:44.279
<v Speaker 1>take control of the NFC South, the Darlings, the team

0:35:44.280 --> 0:35:45.480
<v Speaker 1>that we've loved for years.

0:35:46.239 --> 0:35:47.399
<v Speaker 3>But we're both on the Saints here.

0:35:48.719 --> 0:35:50.719
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think I think threes will pop just because

0:35:50.760 --> 0:35:52.680
<v Speaker 2>the books they're getting so much Panthers money. I think

0:35:52.680 --> 0:35:54.600
<v Speaker 2>they're gonna need some Saints money and the only way

0:35:54.600 --> 0:35:56.640
<v Speaker 2>they're going to get is bipoping that three. Right, not

0:35:57.080 --> 0:35:58.600
<v Speaker 2>people are going to force and take the two and

0:35:58.640 --> 0:36:01.239
<v Speaker 2>a half until Sunday when they need to. It's last minute.

0:36:01.239 --> 0:36:03.200
<v Speaker 2>I think throughout the week you should see some three

0:36:03.239 --> 0:36:07.240
<v Speaker 2>spop up. And you know it's just because who's betting

0:36:07.239 --> 0:36:09.160
<v Speaker 2>the Saints, right, It's it's kind of a spy. You

0:36:09.160 --> 0:36:10.719
<v Speaker 2>don't really want to be back then, Like from the

0:36:10.719 --> 0:36:12.879
<v Speaker 2>general public's perspective, because they just went a really tough

0:36:12.920 --> 0:36:16.440
<v Speaker 2>divisional game now coming home. You know, anybody can look

0:36:16.440 --> 0:36:20.160
<v Speaker 2>at these numbers, but I was alarmed when the buddy

0:36:20.200 --> 0:36:22.759
<v Speaker 2>sent me these numbers about the Saints team. And I

0:36:23.080 --> 0:36:25.360
<v Speaker 2>gave you the stat right there last week on the

0:36:25.440 --> 0:36:27.840
<v Speaker 2>road individual as an underdog, they're eight now nine and

0:36:27.920 --> 0:36:31.640
<v Speaker 2>oh on the road. God, their home stats are terrible. Chat,

0:36:31.719 --> 0:36:34.480
<v Speaker 2>I cannot believe how bad these dats are since twenty

0:36:34.480 --> 0:36:37.120
<v Speaker 2>twenty is an underdog at home the Saints four and

0:36:37.200 --> 0:36:42.120
<v Speaker 2>seventeen straight up, five and sixteen against the spread. That's

0:36:42.320 --> 0:36:44.400
<v Speaker 2>I mean, that's the worst mark in the NFL of

0:36:44.480 --> 0:36:45.520
<v Speaker 2>any team, right.

0:36:45.400 --> 0:36:49.480
<v Speaker 1>But simon, what is Bryce Young on the road as

0:36:49.520 --> 0:36:51.080
<v Speaker 1>a as a favorite?

0:36:51.200 --> 0:36:54.360
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, he's never covered? Yeah, I just I just that

0:36:54.480 --> 0:36:56.960
<v Speaker 2>was just a simple Saint stat's how bad they've been.

0:36:57.080 --> 0:36:59.359
<v Speaker 2>So I love this one. Like you just said, it's

0:36:59.360 --> 0:37:04.399
<v Speaker 2>two it's too immovable objects meeting and something's got to give, right,

0:37:04.520 --> 0:37:07.600
<v Speaker 2>So you said it Bryce Young in his early career,

0:37:08.440 --> 0:37:11.400
<v Speaker 2>he's only been a favorite so many times, and you know,

0:37:11.480 --> 0:37:14.719
<v Speaker 2>eleven times he's been a straight up favorite. He is

0:37:14.880 --> 0:37:17.319
<v Speaker 2>not covered or won any of those games. He's zero

0:37:17.320 --> 0:37:21.160
<v Speaker 2>and eleven. So you're right, it's a unique spot. I

0:37:21.560 --> 0:37:23.120
<v Speaker 2>just want people to get to three just because of

0:37:23.160 --> 0:37:25.479
<v Speaker 2>how bad that saints the Saints team. But we're gonna

0:37:25.480 --> 0:37:27.959
<v Speaker 2>need every point we can get. But I've talked about

0:37:27.960 --> 0:37:31.319
<v Speaker 2>the Saints team surprisingly, you know, even going back to

0:37:31.360 --> 0:37:33.640
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty, they've always matched up really well. Against the Panthers.

0:37:33.680 --> 0:37:35.560
<v Speaker 2>Asn't matter if it was Derek Carr or Taysom Hill

0:37:35.600 --> 0:37:37.799
<v Speaker 2>at quarterback. They've just had a rotation of guys. It's

0:37:37.840 --> 0:37:40.319
<v Speaker 2>they've they've covered, They've played really well against the Panthers team,

0:37:40.440 --> 0:37:42.680
<v Speaker 2>so unique spot. Like you said, it's a game I'm

0:37:42.760 --> 0:37:45.680
<v Speaker 2>leaking a little bit of confidence on, which is you know,

0:37:45.960 --> 0:37:47.680
<v Speaker 2>just part of it. The more you dive into the

0:37:47.680 --> 0:37:49.759
<v Speaker 2>Saints team, it's just like, my god, how how do

0:37:49.800 --> 0:37:51.640
<v Speaker 2>they keep winning? And I'm not a couple people ask

0:37:51.719 --> 0:37:54.040
<v Speaker 2>me about Shuck because he is two hundred and one

0:37:54.080 --> 0:37:56.319
<v Speaker 2>to win Rookie of the Year. It really is just

0:37:56.360 --> 0:37:59.279
<v Speaker 2>about the way their their season can play out, right.

0:37:59.320 --> 0:38:01.719
<v Speaker 2>It's not do I really think this kid's gonna bet

0:38:01.800 --> 0:38:06.279
<v Speaker 2>beat out ted Aron McMillan or Dart Probably not right

0:38:06.320 --> 0:38:08.320
<v Speaker 2>if you go look at those guys numbers much better.

0:38:08.960 --> 0:38:11.760
<v Speaker 2>It's really just about how they end their season. The Saints. Basically,

0:38:11.800 --> 0:38:14.080
<v Speaker 2>if they win this game, they have kind of a

0:38:14.120 --> 0:38:18.320
<v Speaker 2>cake walk, Chad and in there's like outside chance scenario.

0:38:18.719 --> 0:38:20.840
<v Speaker 2>You know, the fact they play the Jets next week.

0:38:21.160 --> 0:38:23.080
<v Speaker 2>That's a big deal, right, Like, Okay, say they win

0:38:23.200 --> 0:38:25.560
<v Speaker 2>those two games. Now he's got the most wins of

0:38:25.560 --> 0:38:27.640
<v Speaker 2>all the rookie quarterbacks r he's up to five wins.

0:38:28.040 --> 0:38:30.720
<v Speaker 2>That's not nothing. So just to me, people asked thembout,

0:38:30.719 --> 0:38:33.239
<v Speaker 2>They're like, are you really betting two hundred to one

0:38:33.280 --> 0:38:35.319
<v Speaker 2>on Chuck to win Rookie of the Year. It's just

0:38:35.320 --> 0:38:38.040
<v Speaker 2>an outside shot he gets. If he can beat the Panthers,

0:38:38.040 --> 0:38:40.760
<v Speaker 2>that'd be pretty crazy. Then he beats the Jets again,

0:38:41.239 --> 0:38:45.120
<v Speaker 2>not as crazy. Then he's at Tennessee, that's a possibility,

0:38:45.200 --> 0:38:48.520
<v Speaker 2>outplays the other first number one overall pick. And then

0:38:48.520 --> 0:38:52.000
<v Speaker 2>he's at Atlanta. So it's like, none of those teams

0:38:52.040 --> 0:38:54.839
<v Speaker 2>are juggernauts. There is a path for Schuck to go

0:38:54.960 --> 0:38:56.400
<v Speaker 2>four and oh three and one and put up some

0:38:56.480 --> 0:38:59.040
<v Speaker 2>good numbers. I'll bet that two hundred to one, Like,

0:38:59.080 --> 0:39:01.160
<v Speaker 2>I'll take those odds third ten bucks on it. Why

0:39:01.200 --> 0:39:03.359
<v Speaker 2>not If you want to get really weird, you can

0:39:03.400 --> 0:39:06.080
<v Speaker 2>throw him in there with McCaffrey, who is the eighteen

0:39:06.080 --> 0:39:07.560
<v Speaker 2>oh one to be Offensive Player of the Year. He

0:39:07.640 --> 0:39:10.640
<v Speaker 2>might be a thousand thousand season. Like, you can bet

0:39:10.640 --> 0:39:12.439
<v Speaker 2>those two together. All of a sudden you have three

0:39:12.480 --> 0:39:15.000
<v Speaker 2>hundred to one, Like, you can really get fun with

0:39:15.040 --> 0:39:16.719
<v Speaker 2>it with these long shot odds. So I had a

0:39:16.760 --> 0:39:18.240
<v Speaker 2>couple of people ask for like, are you really betting

0:39:18.360 --> 0:39:20.080
<v Speaker 2>Shuck the win Rookie of the Year. I don't really

0:39:20.120 --> 0:39:21.799
<v Speaker 2>believe it. I just when I saw that schedule, it's

0:39:21.840 --> 0:39:23.600
<v Speaker 2>like I squin in my eyes a little bit. I'm like,

0:39:23.640 --> 0:39:26.160
<v Speaker 2>I can see a path for three and one, and

0:39:26.239 --> 0:39:29.000
<v Speaker 2>if you can go six touchdowns one turnover in that stretch,

0:39:29.360 --> 0:39:30.719
<v Speaker 2>there's a path room to get a rook of the Year.

0:39:30.760 --> 0:39:32.160
<v Speaker 2>So just something to keep in mind if you're looking

0:39:32.200 --> 0:39:34.680
<v Speaker 2>for a fun lung shot future have a good time.

0:39:34.760 --> 0:39:36.480
<v Speaker 3>Throw the Chiefs to make the playoffs in there too.

0:39:36.680 --> 0:39:37.040
<v Speaker 3>Why not.

0:39:38.120 --> 0:39:40.120
<v Speaker 2>That's the craziest one of all. It's probably the worst odds.

0:39:40.400 --> 0:39:44.280
<v Speaker 3>Just go for it. Green Bay at Denver.

0:39:44.440 --> 0:39:47.799
<v Speaker 1>This was Chad's choice, the Green Bay Packers minus two.

0:39:49.080 --> 0:39:51.799
<v Speaker 3>I think that the Packers.

0:39:52.640 --> 0:39:54.480
<v Speaker 1>You and I had been struggling with the Packers all

0:39:54.560 --> 0:39:58.719
<v Speaker 1>year because all of the advanced metrics keep saying how

0:39:58.760 --> 0:39:59.680
<v Speaker 1>great they are.

0:40:00.200 --> 0:40:04.480
<v Speaker 3>But they hadn't seemed dominant on the field.

0:40:04.680 --> 0:40:04.799
<v Speaker 2>Right.

0:40:04.840 --> 0:40:06.480
<v Speaker 1>They were nine to three to one heading into that

0:40:06.520 --> 0:40:09.439
<v Speaker 1>Bears game, And what I saw in that Bears game

0:40:10.239 --> 0:40:12.439
<v Speaker 1>was just a complete team. Now, the Bears were able

0:40:12.480 --> 0:40:15.560
<v Speaker 1>to run the ball in the second half, but how

0:40:15.600 --> 0:40:19.480
<v Speaker 1>they were able to cover overall, and the way Jordan

0:40:19.600 --> 0:40:22.839
<v Speaker 1>Love was able to respond to pressure, the fact they've

0:40:22.880 --> 0:40:25.759
<v Speaker 1>gotten so many of their receivers back.

0:40:27.320 --> 0:40:30.080
<v Speaker 3>I love this roster. I love the speed in their defense.

0:40:30.280 --> 0:40:33.920
<v Speaker 1>I love the way Jordan Love throws against man coverage,

0:40:33.920 --> 0:40:36.239
<v Speaker 1>which is what the Broncos are going to play. They're

0:40:36.239 --> 0:40:38.680
<v Speaker 1>going to go against single high coverage, which is what

0:40:38.920 --> 0:40:42.960
<v Speaker 1>Jordan Love loves to throw against. Everything about this matchup

0:40:42.960 --> 0:40:47.160
<v Speaker 1>to me, I feel like I'm getting about a point

0:40:47.160 --> 0:40:49.719
<v Speaker 1>of value. I think that the Packers should be three

0:40:49.760 --> 0:40:53.720
<v Speaker 1>point favorites because I think the ultimate decision here coaching

0:40:53.840 --> 0:40:56.800
<v Speaker 1>is even defense probably even. I think the difference is

0:40:56.840 --> 0:41:00.920
<v Speaker 1>the quarterback, and that's worth a lot to me. Give

0:41:00.960 --> 0:41:04.080
<v Speaker 1>me the Greeny Bad Packers two points favorites.

0:41:04.800 --> 0:41:07.400
<v Speaker 2>Well, yeah, we both love the Packers a game that

0:41:07.480 --> 0:41:09.280
<v Speaker 2>no matter what, if it was two and a half,

0:41:09.400 --> 0:41:11.200
<v Speaker 2>I'd be all over it. Not gonna let the hooks

0:41:11.239 --> 0:41:15.359
<v Speaker 2>carry me off. Just think matchup wise, they're the better team.

0:41:15.400 --> 0:41:18.080
<v Speaker 2>They should probably be minus three and tons of respect

0:41:18.160 --> 0:41:20.320
<v Speaker 2>by the professionals on this Broncos team right for good reason.

0:41:20.360 --> 0:41:23.400
<v Speaker 2>They they're weally well coached. They've really grind out a

0:41:23.400 --> 0:41:25.120
<v Speaker 2>lot of these games. And we've talked about bo Nicks

0:41:25.160 --> 0:41:28.040
<v Speaker 2>as much as he's regressed in some people's eyes this year,

0:41:28.440 --> 0:41:30.520
<v Speaker 2>he's been incredible in these fourth quarters, leading this team

0:41:30.520 --> 0:41:33.160
<v Speaker 2>to come back wins, and it's just been really impressive.

0:41:33.200 --> 0:41:35.000
<v Speaker 2>And you know, I gave out that amazing stat I

0:41:35.040 --> 0:41:37.600
<v Speaker 2>have a ingrams. It's just a unique spot. This is

0:41:37.640 --> 0:41:40.560
<v Speaker 2>another team just like the Patriots. They've won ten straight

0:41:40.560 --> 0:41:42.880
<v Speaker 2>grames the Broncos and now they are a home underdog.

0:41:43.000 --> 0:41:45.800
<v Speaker 2>So since two thousand and five, eight teams have closed

0:41:45.840 --> 0:41:48.480
<v Speaker 2>an underdog in this exact spot. Two five and one

0:41:48.480 --> 0:41:50.920
<v Speaker 2>against has spread these teams. So they'll let you know

0:41:51.000 --> 0:41:52.880
<v Speaker 2>right there, the Broncos, this is not a good spot.

0:41:52.880 --> 0:41:54.520
<v Speaker 2>You might think it is. You're getting at a home

0:41:54.560 --> 0:41:57.719
<v Speaker 2>dog here, you're you're fired up, but long term it's

0:41:57.760 --> 0:41:59.239
<v Speaker 2>just a loser. The books are kind of telling you

0:41:59.320 --> 0:42:01.719
<v Speaker 2>right the profession are ton here. Which team is the

0:42:01.760 --> 0:42:04.640
<v Speaker 2>better team? They just throughout the records rights, it matters

0:42:04.680 --> 0:42:06.279
<v Speaker 2>what happens on the field, and you've seen it this year.

0:42:06.280 --> 0:42:08.400
<v Speaker 2>In my opinion, the NFC to me is just a

0:42:08.400 --> 0:42:12.640
<v Speaker 2>better problem than the AFC. Like the AFC, some of

0:42:12.680 --> 0:42:14.800
<v Speaker 2>these teams have so many more weaknesses in the NFC,

0:42:14.880 --> 0:42:18.239
<v Speaker 2>and we talked there's something missing with this Green Bay team.

0:42:18.560 --> 0:42:19.960
<v Speaker 2>I don't know if the Broncos are the type of

0:42:19.960 --> 0:42:22.680
<v Speaker 2>team that can exploit those type of scenarios. So I

0:42:23.080 --> 0:42:26.560
<v Speaker 2>really do love them here. And you know, if it

0:42:26.560 --> 0:42:29.040
<v Speaker 2>gets the three, I get if you have some type

0:42:29.040 --> 0:42:31.560
<v Speaker 2>of hesitation there, but hopefully you can get the two.

0:42:31.680 --> 0:42:33.200
<v Speaker 2>The minus two and a half there should be up

0:42:33.239 --> 0:42:35.960
<v Speaker 2>there still by Sunday. I just think professional money. Anytime

0:42:36.000 --> 0:42:38.640
<v Speaker 2>Broncos touch a three, they'll hit it. So I'm hoping

0:42:38.640 --> 0:42:40.120
<v Speaker 2>people won't be scared off by this one. I really

0:42:40.160 --> 0:42:41.960
<v Speaker 2>love the Packers in the spot.

0:42:42.280 --> 0:42:43.760
<v Speaker 3>We're total agreement here.

0:42:44.600 --> 0:42:47.440
<v Speaker 1>There's twos and two and a half's out there if

0:42:47.480 --> 0:42:51.040
<v Speaker 1>you're not in a hard rock state, so definitely look around.

0:42:52.440 --> 0:42:55.000
<v Speaker 1>But yeah, we're the Packers are going to be in

0:42:55.080 --> 0:42:55.680
<v Speaker 1>the contest.

0:42:56.000 --> 0:42:59.000
<v Speaker 2>There's not And I did have a chace that I

0:42:59.040 --> 0:43:00.960
<v Speaker 2>didn't want to give out just because Jay colors in

0:43:01.000 --> 0:43:04.920
<v Speaker 2>the stat Packers are one in seven in their history

0:43:05.040 --> 0:43:08.279
<v Speaker 2>on the road in Denver. The only win came back

0:43:08.280 --> 0:43:10.799
<v Speaker 2>in two thousand and seven in overtime, Brett fav beaten

0:43:10.880 --> 0:43:11.480
<v Speaker 2>Jay Cutler.

0:43:12.440 --> 0:43:15.360
<v Speaker 3>As Jay Culer would say, don't care.

0:43:19.200 --> 0:43:20.759
<v Speaker 1>Last game on the board that I want to talk

0:43:20.760 --> 0:43:22.879
<v Speaker 1>about I think should be our brass balls Better the Week.

0:43:23.000 --> 0:43:26.200
<v Speaker 1>Let's do it, the Minnesota Vikings visiting the Dallas Cowboys.

0:43:26.719 --> 0:43:28.960
<v Speaker 1>Are you with me? Are you with me?

0:43:29.000 --> 0:43:30.160
<v Speaker 3>On the Minnesota Vikings?

0:43:30.640 --> 0:43:33.640
<v Speaker 1>Love the Minnesota Vikings? Should we make it our brass

0:43:33.640 --> 0:43:35.000
<v Speaker 1>balls presented by hard Rock Bet.

0:43:35.719 --> 0:43:36.720
<v Speaker 2>Still it definitely balls?

0:43:36.719 --> 0:43:37.680
<v Speaker 3>You bet all right?

0:43:37.760 --> 0:43:42.960
<v Speaker 1>Minnesota Vikings plus six at hard Rock Bets against the

0:43:43.040 --> 0:43:47.040
<v Speaker 1>Dallas Cowboys. That is our brass balls Better the Week,

0:43:47.960 --> 0:43:49.640
<v Speaker 1>presented by hard Rock Bet.

0:43:49.840 --> 0:43:52.800
<v Speaker 2>You know what it takes. It takes brass balls.

0:43:54.960 --> 0:43:58.920
<v Speaker 1>Forget about JJ McCarthy for a second. The Vikings defense

0:43:59.600 --> 0:44:02.680
<v Speaker 1>has been playing lights out the past few weeks, just.

0:44:02.640 --> 0:44:04.120
<v Speaker 3>Getting better and better and better.

0:44:04.760 --> 0:44:12.160
<v Speaker 1>And to me, what they can do to potentially neutralize

0:44:12.400 --> 0:44:16.359
<v Speaker 1>Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys offense versus what the

0:44:16.400 --> 0:44:21.040
<v Speaker 1>Cowboys can do to defend against anything that the Vikings

0:44:21.080 --> 0:44:24.799
<v Speaker 1>are going to do is so much greater that I

0:44:24.920 --> 0:44:30.080
<v Speaker 1>have to believe in what I've seen. When Kevin O'Connell

0:44:30.120 --> 0:44:32.600
<v Speaker 1>can just tell his quarterback and put him in a

0:44:32.680 --> 0:44:36.000
<v Speaker 1>halfway decent position against a defense that is as bad

0:44:36.040 --> 0:44:39.520
<v Speaker 1>as the one they just played in Washington, So I'm

0:44:39.520 --> 0:44:41.000
<v Speaker 1>buying the Minnesota Vikings.

0:44:42.640 --> 0:44:44.360
<v Speaker 2>I don't hate it. Like I've talked a little bit

0:44:44.360 --> 0:44:46.520
<v Speaker 2>about it, this is a game I early bet the

0:44:46.600 --> 0:44:48.279
<v Speaker 2>Vikings and it's kind of the what you talked about it.

0:44:48.320 --> 0:44:51.160
<v Speaker 2>It's really a bet on their defense and this matchup

0:44:51.200 --> 0:44:52.840
<v Speaker 2>that I do think they'll be able to get stops

0:44:52.880 --> 0:44:55.200
<v Speaker 2>against the Cowboys. On the flip side, you know, as

0:44:55.200 --> 0:44:57.439
<v Speaker 2>bad as JJ's looked, you've seen him when he's on script.

0:44:57.480 --> 0:44:59.400
<v Speaker 2>They can move the ball really well. And this is

0:44:59.440 --> 0:45:01.759
<v Speaker 2>a great de defense for Kosu de script against There's

0:45:01.800 --> 0:45:03.279
<v Speaker 2>just a lot of things you can take advantage of.

0:45:03.400 --> 0:45:06.680
<v Speaker 2>So you know, it's a rare opportunity you have. A

0:45:07.239 --> 0:45:10.040
<v Speaker 2>Dallas Cowboys team is a big favorite against what we

0:45:10.080 --> 0:45:12.319
<v Speaker 2>consider still being an undervalued Vikings team, and when you

0:45:12.320 --> 0:45:15.680
<v Speaker 2>really break it down, they're not that different really. I mean,

0:45:15.800 --> 0:45:18.839
<v Speaker 2>as great as Dak has been, you know, these two

0:45:18.880 --> 0:45:21.480
<v Speaker 2>teams just aren't that different. And the public perceives is

0:45:21.520 --> 0:45:22.040
<v Speaker 2>totally different.

0:45:22.080 --> 0:45:22.200
<v Speaker 4>Right.

0:45:22.239 --> 0:45:23.840
<v Speaker 2>I think you can see the numbers I'm looking at,

0:45:23.840 --> 0:45:26.279
<v Speaker 2>which is basically eighty percent of the best eighty percent

0:45:26.320 --> 0:45:28.000
<v Speaker 2>of the money all that's just coming on this Dallas

0:45:28.000 --> 0:45:31.040
<v Speaker 2>Cowboys team, and it is a unique spot back in

0:45:31.080 --> 0:45:34.839
<v Speaker 2>Minnesota that we're not We're not the biggest Minnesota backers here.

0:45:34.840 --> 0:45:37.440
<v Speaker 2>We have not really been on them or gone against

0:45:37.440 --> 0:45:39.480
<v Speaker 2>them that much this season, but this does feel like

0:45:39.480 --> 0:45:41.520
<v Speaker 2>a unique spot with this number at six to be

0:45:41.560 --> 0:45:43.840
<v Speaker 2>back in them.

0:45:43.400 --> 0:45:46.600
<v Speaker 3>For every season, there is a time, Simon.

0:45:47.360 --> 0:45:50.600
<v Speaker 2>We have sertain teams we lock in on and I

0:45:50.719 --> 0:45:52.560
<v Speaker 2>have a couple more games if you want to run

0:45:52.560 --> 0:45:57.200
<v Speaker 2>through of just crazy stats for you. Always, always, like

0:45:57.239 --> 0:46:01.520
<v Speaker 2>I said, I am, there's no one where a handicappy

0:46:01.560 --> 0:46:05.640
<v Speaker 2>Tennessee Titans game, I believe on Tuesday said I was

0:46:05.640 --> 0:46:09.440
<v Speaker 2>on the forty nine ers. Yeah right, Yeah, I have flipped.

0:46:09.840 --> 0:46:11.919
<v Speaker 2>I have been bullied by professional betters. I am coming

0:46:11.960 --> 0:46:14.720
<v Speaker 2>around on Tennessee. I'm gonna take a position on Tennessee.

0:46:14.760 --> 0:46:17.239
<v Speaker 2>But again, I don't know if we'll make it our contest, but.

0:46:17.400 --> 0:46:20.759
<v Speaker 3>No fucking way, We're just not gonna do it.

0:46:21.040 --> 0:46:22.839
<v Speaker 2>Wait to hear these stats, chaff I.

0:46:22.760 --> 0:46:25.799
<v Speaker 1>Don't want to hear the stats, Simon, Simon. Do we

0:46:25.840 --> 0:46:27.920
<v Speaker 1>need Matt Mitchell to go back and pull the clip

0:46:27.920 --> 0:46:29.040
<v Speaker 1>that we played on Tuesday?

0:46:29.440 --> 0:46:32.160
<v Speaker 3>What did we say? What did we say?

0:46:32.520 --> 0:46:33.960
<v Speaker 2>I'm not putting in the contest. I'm just giving you

0:46:34.040 --> 0:46:37.839
<v Speaker 2>the stats for Thursday show with our loyal fans, which

0:46:37.840 --> 0:46:39.359
<v Speaker 2>I hope they listened to me. I said to Fade me.

0:46:39.480 --> 0:46:41.440
<v Speaker 3>This is on you, this is on you. I take no.

0:46:41.400 --> 0:46:49.960
<v Speaker 2>Responsibility Nola, No Nela, Kyle Shanahan and these forty nine ers.

0:46:50.000 --> 0:46:52.239
<v Speaker 2>They are four and eight against the spread off a

0:46:52.360 --> 0:46:55.760
<v Speaker 2>bye week, which is pretty extreme. They've lost three straight.

0:46:56.040 --> 0:46:58.720
<v Speaker 2>They're one to five off the bye week since twenty

0:46:58.760 --> 0:47:01.600
<v Speaker 2>twenty one. He faces a team below five hundred A

0:47:01.680 --> 0:47:04.160
<v Speaker 2>Shanahan zero and three off a bye week against the spread.

0:47:04.440 --> 0:47:07.600
<v Speaker 2>So I don't know why in my mind I thought

0:47:07.680 --> 0:47:09.319
<v Speaker 2>Channon was great off of bye week. I think I

0:47:09.320 --> 0:47:11.040
<v Speaker 2>said that on Tuesday when I went and looked it up.

0:47:11.480 --> 0:47:14.920
<v Speaker 2>It's atrocious off of bye week. And that's all I

0:47:14.960 --> 0:47:17.399
<v Speaker 2>needed to flip me because I just I cannot get

0:47:17.400 --> 0:47:19.080
<v Speaker 2>this Tennessee team right. And it's like, what am I

0:47:19.120 --> 0:47:21.239
<v Speaker 2>missing here? Why are the pros betting this team again?

0:47:21.280 --> 0:47:23.400
<v Speaker 2>And there's your answer. So let's move it on to

0:47:23.440 --> 0:47:26.160
<v Speaker 2>the next game, because, like Chet said, we're not gonna

0:47:26.160 --> 0:47:30.279
<v Speaker 2>betting this one. Pittsburgh Miami. Where were you at?

0:47:30.480 --> 0:47:32.759
<v Speaker 1>You were on Miami right or I I was on

0:47:32.800 --> 0:47:35.800
<v Speaker 1>Miami plus three and a half on Tuesday's.

0:47:35.200 --> 0:47:36.800
<v Speaker 2>That to me does feel like the sharp side the

0:47:36.840 --> 0:47:40.520
<v Speaker 2>three and a half. But if you're like me and

0:47:40.560 --> 0:47:42.160
<v Speaker 2>you just don't want to throw out the spread, you

0:47:42.200 --> 0:47:43.719
<v Speaker 2>want to go strict money line, which is what I

0:47:43.719 --> 0:47:46.520
<v Speaker 2>want to do. Here some amazing stats about Steelers of

0:47:46.520 --> 0:47:49.560
<v Speaker 2>the money line and this exact opportunity. Since ninety ninety

0:47:49.600 --> 0:47:51.880
<v Speaker 2>two on Monday Night football games, the Steelers are twenty

0:47:51.880 --> 0:47:54.960
<v Speaker 2>two and one straight up. Their only loss was in

0:47:55.000 --> 0:47:57.400
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty against the Commanders. I don't know if you

0:47:57.400 --> 0:47:59.640
<v Speaker 2>remember twenty twenty, there were no stands in the stands.

0:48:00.360 --> 0:48:04.000
<v Speaker 2>That's throw it out. They are just unbelievable at home

0:48:04.320 --> 0:48:06.560
<v Speaker 2>on Monday Night. If you throw that one out, they're

0:48:06.680 --> 0:48:09.000
<v Speaker 2>twenty two and to ozh straight up on Monday Night

0:48:09.000 --> 0:48:12.560
<v Speaker 2>football at home since ninety ninety two. In his career,

0:48:13.160 --> 0:48:16.040
<v Speaker 2>Aaron Rodgers eleven and two straight up on Monday Night football.

0:48:16.080 --> 0:48:17.440
<v Speaker 2>So there's just a lot of trends at point to

0:48:17.480 --> 0:48:19.319
<v Speaker 2>a liking it. And let's get to all the two

0:48:19.360 --> 0:48:23.319
<v Speaker 2>of stats. Two outdoors in the cold, two and seven

0:48:23.360 --> 0:48:25.040
<v Speaker 2>straight up, one and eight against the spread in his

0:48:25.120 --> 0:48:29.239
<v Speaker 2>career when it's under forty degrees. He's zero and five

0:48:29.280 --> 0:48:31.520
<v Speaker 2>straight up, one and four against the spread, losing those

0:48:31.560 --> 0:48:35.200
<v Speaker 2>games by nineteen points per game. So, my god, we

0:48:35.320 --> 0:48:37.360
<v Speaker 2>know two is horrible and the cold. I had no

0:48:37.400 --> 0:48:39.919
<v Speaker 2>idea the stats were that bad. So with Chad sick,

0:48:39.960 --> 0:48:42.200
<v Speaker 2>can be true? Right? This Miami team have been hiding

0:48:42.239 --> 0:48:44.160
<v Speaker 2>to it for a couple of weeks. Can they just

0:48:44.239 --> 0:48:46.719
<v Speaker 2>lean into the run and get away with it? Possibly?

0:48:47.160 --> 0:48:48.920
<v Speaker 2>But my god, do all those stats point to them

0:48:48.960 --> 0:48:51.040
<v Speaker 2>just laying a total egg here in Miami, especially coming

0:48:51.040 --> 0:48:54.160
<v Speaker 2>off a divisional win on the road now traveling to Pittsburgh,

0:48:54.360 --> 0:48:56.359
<v Speaker 2>it seems like the perfect spot to fade this team.

0:48:56.480 --> 0:48:59.080
<v Speaker 2>So I'm still gonna be dug in Steelers minus three.

0:48:59.120 --> 0:49:02.200
<v Speaker 2>I'll still take it. But I could not believe those

0:49:02.239 --> 0:49:05.920
<v Speaker 2>Monday Night's stats for this this Pittsburgh team historically, they

0:49:05.960 --> 0:49:08.719
<v Speaker 2>just came to dominate. And my last game game again,

0:49:08.760 --> 0:49:10.440
<v Speaker 2>we don't. I think you more had a renon than

0:49:10.480 --> 0:49:13.200
<v Speaker 2>I did. I just I couldn't really get behind Washington

0:49:13.320 --> 0:49:15.319
<v Speaker 2>or the Giants. I just I remember when you brought

0:49:15.320 --> 0:49:17.000
<v Speaker 2>the game up. Did you like Giants or dold you

0:49:17.040 --> 0:49:17.759
<v Speaker 2>like Washington? I don't.

0:49:17.960 --> 0:49:21.799
<v Speaker 1>I liked Washington, but so at the time I thought

0:49:21.800 --> 0:49:23.920
<v Speaker 1>it might be Jayden Daniels. Now we know it's not

0:49:23.960 --> 0:49:25.360
<v Speaker 1>going to be Jayden Daniels, which.

0:49:25.160 --> 0:49:26.839
<v Speaker 2>Is to me is better. That's to me is why

0:49:26.880 --> 0:49:29.040
<v Speaker 2>I'm kind I kind of like Washington now. And the

0:49:29.080 --> 0:49:30.920
<v Speaker 2>line reflects that it's come down a little bit. It's

0:49:30.960 --> 0:49:32.160
<v Speaker 2>come down for the two and a half to two.

0:49:33.280 --> 0:49:35.719
<v Speaker 2>This is my favorite lazy man stat. We always talk

0:49:35.719 --> 0:49:37.839
<v Speaker 2>about lazy man stats. I love a good like. Give

0:49:37.880 --> 0:49:39.480
<v Speaker 2>me a good stat. I don't need to think about

0:49:39.480 --> 0:49:41.440
<v Speaker 2>the game anymore. I'll just bet it off this stat blindly.

0:49:42.280 --> 0:49:44.280
<v Speaker 2>What have we been doing so well that we missed

0:49:44.320 --> 0:49:47.360
<v Speaker 2>last week? We've been betting teams that's be bet on

0:49:47.440 --> 0:49:51.279
<v Speaker 2>teams that get shut out. Yeah, and it's been tried

0:49:51.360 --> 0:49:53.160
<v Speaker 2>or true for me and Chad for years. And the

0:49:53.160 --> 0:49:56.120
<v Speaker 2>stats backup since twenty fifteen, teams that got shot in

0:49:56.160 --> 0:49:58.920
<v Speaker 2>their previous game thirty four, seventeen to three against the spread.

0:49:59.280 --> 0:50:02.359
<v Speaker 2>This season four to zero against the spread. So if

0:50:02.360 --> 0:50:05.040
<v Speaker 2>you just want to lazy man blindly bet it, it's

0:50:05.080 --> 0:50:07.080
<v Speaker 2>a good bet. It just shows these teams that get

0:50:07.080 --> 0:50:09.640
<v Speaker 2>shut out or embarrassed, these are growing ass men. They

0:50:09.680 --> 0:50:11.960
<v Speaker 2>bounce back like whatever it is. We've seen it time

0:50:12.000 --> 0:50:14.719
<v Speaker 2>and time again. These teams tend to bounce back the

0:50:14.760 --> 0:50:17.080
<v Speaker 2>Commanders if you go through it. They've owned the Giants

0:50:17.120 --> 0:50:19.320
<v Speaker 2>in this matchup. Like I always talk to the divisional matchups,

0:50:19.800 --> 0:50:22.160
<v Speaker 2>the Commanders, who have just been awful throughout these last

0:50:22.160 --> 0:50:24.520
<v Speaker 2>four or five years. Even the Giants were semi good

0:50:24.520 --> 0:50:26.800
<v Speaker 2>with Daniel Jones, they'd always beat them in this matchup.

0:50:26.880 --> 0:50:30.160
<v Speaker 2>So it is unique. I kind of like the Commander,

0:50:30.239 --> 0:50:31.680
<v Speaker 2>especially a plus two and a half. I know it's

0:50:31.680 --> 0:50:33.680
<v Speaker 2>two now at hard Rocks. There's a bunch of two

0:50:33.680 --> 0:50:36.439
<v Speaker 2>and a half's up there. I've come around the Commanders team.

0:50:36.440 --> 0:50:38.279
<v Speaker 2>I think it's probably a good spot, especially the fact

0:50:38.280 --> 0:50:40.920
<v Speaker 2>that Mariota is back, and just look at the splits

0:50:41.440 --> 0:50:43.840
<v Speaker 2>everyone's left them for debt. People are now hammering and

0:50:43.960 --> 0:50:46.480
<v Speaker 2>backing this Giants team. They believe in the Giants as

0:50:46.480 --> 0:50:48.400
<v Speaker 2>a home favorite. So it feels have got a rare

0:50:48.400 --> 0:50:50.399
<v Speaker 2>opportunity to jump on this Washington team.

0:50:50.400 --> 0:50:50.600
<v Speaker 4>Here.

0:50:51.000 --> 0:50:53.200
<v Speaker 1>Look that one is of the of the ones you

0:50:53.280 --> 0:50:56.040
<v Speaker 1>added in. It's the one I hate the least.

0:50:56.520 --> 0:50:57.719
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it was a gross end of the show, but

0:50:57.760 --> 0:50:59.080
<v Speaker 2>I had to give out all these stats. I just

0:50:59.280 --> 0:50:59.879
<v Speaker 2>I love them.

0:51:00.320 --> 0:51:04.000
<v Speaker 1>Let's let everyone ponder the grossness that you just threw

0:51:04.120 --> 0:51:07.719
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0:53:05.200 --> 0:53:06.880
<v Speaker 3>All right, what are you laughing at?

0:53:07.200 --> 0:53:09.320
<v Speaker 2>I have tons of people sending me all these videos

0:53:09.320 --> 0:53:12.360
<v Speaker 2>from people in sports media about Jalen Hurts. Like, but

0:53:12.400 --> 0:53:15.319
<v Speaker 2>people are like, should Hurts be benched? Matt Mitchell said

0:53:15.360 --> 0:53:18.120
<v Speaker 2>he's willing to die for Josh Allen, a man everyone

0:53:18.120 --> 0:53:21.160
<v Speaker 2>won an AFC Championship game. Eagles fans have a quarterback

0:53:21.239 --> 0:53:23.360
<v Speaker 2>that's taken them two Super Bowls. There is should this

0:53:23.360 --> 0:53:25.600
<v Speaker 2>guy be benched? Two worlds? We live in two worlds,

0:53:25.680 --> 0:53:27.799
<v Speaker 2>Chad and the other world sucks. I can't imagine being

0:53:27.800 --> 0:53:29.759
<v Speaker 2>in a world that you want to sit hurts and

0:53:29.800 --> 0:53:31.640
<v Speaker 2>you hate Josh Allen. Those people just suck.

0:53:32.200 --> 0:53:36.720
<v Speaker 1>That's why I so love Philly sports fans but also

0:53:37.360 --> 0:53:44.080
<v Speaker 1>so love Buffalo sports fans. They are such distinct personalities, Like,

0:53:44.320 --> 0:53:47.960
<v Speaker 1>it's just so much fun to engage with both groups

0:53:48.239 --> 0:53:49.160
<v Speaker 1>all of the time.

0:53:49.560 --> 0:53:53.160
<v Speaker 3>It's totally amazing. The reason why.

0:53:52.920 --> 0:53:55.839
<v Speaker 1>We're that Matt Mitchell said he would die for Josh

0:53:55.880 --> 0:53:58.600
<v Speaker 1>Allen is because Simon the other day sent in our

0:53:58.640 --> 0:54:02.839
<v Speaker 1>group text chain video of Josh Allen being interviewed when

0:54:02.840 --> 0:54:06.319
<v Speaker 1>he had just gotten to Wyoming and he was the

0:54:06.400 --> 0:54:10.440
<v Speaker 1>second string backup quarterback and they're asking him about the

0:54:10.560 --> 0:54:13.360
<v Speaker 1>snow and he's so wholesome and earnest, he's.

0:54:13.160 --> 0:54:16.239
<v Speaker 2>Like stuttering over his own words. He's so young and sweet, so.

0:54:16.360 --> 0:54:19.600
<v Speaker 1>Young and sweet and innocent, like a babe in the woods.

0:54:19.600 --> 0:54:22.000
<v Speaker 3>He's like, I've never seen snow like this. He's like,

0:54:22.000 --> 0:54:22.600
<v Speaker 3>what do you like to do?

0:54:22.719 --> 0:54:24.279
<v Speaker 1>Well? I just want to go out to eat with

0:54:24.400 --> 0:54:28.160
<v Speaker 1>my friends and you know, play football, anything football related.

0:54:28.200 --> 0:54:32.200
<v Speaker 1>That's It's like this guy eventually married Hailey Steinfeld.

0:54:32.400 --> 0:54:33.280
<v Speaker 2>It became Superman.

0:54:33.400 --> 0:54:37.560
<v Speaker 3>It's became a superman. Totally awesome. Matt.

0:54:37.640 --> 0:54:40.440
<v Speaker 1>Matt Mitchell makes good choices in his heroes. All right, Simon,

0:54:40.640 --> 0:54:42.680
<v Speaker 1>one of your biggest bets, pull up those.

0:54:42.520 --> 0:54:45.160
<v Speaker 2>Pints and be a man. I mean to show man

0:54:45.239 --> 0:54:47.520
<v Speaker 2>a little bit. Love the Rams, obviously you do.

0:54:47.680 --> 0:54:49.440
<v Speaker 3>I didn't. I didn't. That didn't come across.

0:54:49.560 --> 0:54:53.919
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, good, physician Chad read it pretty good. I do

0:54:54.040 --> 0:54:56.919
<v Speaker 2>love the Chiefs. I'm getting a little weary because it's

0:54:56.920 --> 0:54:59.120
<v Speaker 2>so much love. Like everyone I talked to is right

0:54:59.120 --> 0:55:03.640
<v Speaker 2>there with us. I've slowed down a little bit, but

0:55:03.680 --> 0:55:06.319
<v Speaker 2>I do really love the Chiefs. In that spot, we

0:55:06.360 --> 0:55:09.040
<v Speaker 2>talk about the Bills. I really like the Bills, and

0:55:09.840 --> 0:55:11.200
<v Speaker 2>it's not one of my bigger bets right now. I

0:55:11.239 --> 0:55:12.960
<v Speaker 2>can see myself getting there, so we just city right now.

0:55:12.960 --> 0:55:15.919
<v Speaker 2>My two biggest bets for sure, Green Bay the two

0:55:16.040 --> 0:55:18.239
<v Speaker 2>two and a half and the Rams minus five and

0:55:18.239 --> 0:55:20.680
<v Speaker 2>a half. I haven't touched so much the Rams at six,

0:55:20.719 --> 0:55:22.239
<v Speaker 2>but I wouldn't let it scare me off. I'll still

0:55:22.280 --> 0:55:28.280
<v Speaker 2>bet it comes up Sunday underdog parlay. My dog blocks

0:55:28.480 --> 0:55:31.400
<v Speaker 2>your dog, Your dog blocks mot dog.

0:55:32.080 --> 0:55:38.560
<v Speaker 1>I have New Orleans, I have Cincinnati, I have Washington,

0:55:39.560 --> 0:55:39.920
<v Speaker 1>love it.

0:55:40.440 --> 0:55:46.480
<v Speaker 3>I have Minnesota. Okay, I love that too, Minnesota.

0:55:46.239 --> 0:55:49.560
<v Speaker 2>And for our last one, Cleveland.

0:55:51.880 --> 0:55:53.720
<v Speaker 3>I was looking for a decent sized number.

0:55:53.840 --> 0:55:55.840
<v Speaker 2>I get where you're coming from. Let me be the

0:55:55.880 --> 0:55:59.960
<v Speaker 2>bigger scumbag here. Give me the Raiders plus four nine.

0:56:00.160 --> 0:56:02.160
<v Speaker 3>I knew you were going to say that I gotta do.

0:56:02.160 --> 0:56:04.439
<v Speaker 2>It again this. I think they're gonna win. They should

0:56:04.440 --> 0:56:07.720
<v Speaker 2>blow out this Raiders team. But we've seen in football

0:56:07.760 --> 0:56:10.640
<v Speaker 2>when when when this when teams collapse under their own weight.

0:56:11.600 --> 0:56:13.920
<v Speaker 2>This is uh this, this tends to happen. So just

0:56:13.960 --> 0:56:15.440
<v Speaker 2>at that number, I have to bet it. That's too

0:56:15.440 --> 0:56:15.880
<v Speaker 2>big for you.

0:56:16.000 --> 0:56:19.280
<v Speaker 1>You really just want the conversation about Jalen Hurst to continue,

0:56:20.280 --> 0:56:20.799
<v Speaker 1>not at all.

0:56:20.960 --> 0:56:22.760
<v Speaker 2>I just I want to make money off the suffering.

0:56:22.840 --> 0:56:23.680
<v Speaker 2>That's the key here.

0:56:24.239 --> 0:56:27.680
<v Speaker 1>Uh favorite, By the way, the only of the big

0:56:27.760 --> 0:56:35.879
<v Speaker 1>numbers you know, Seattle, Indie and Arizona and Houston and

0:56:36.080 --> 0:56:39.480
<v Speaker 1>uh Vegas and Philly. I forgot the other big number

0:56:39.520 --> 0:56:43.520
<v Speaker 1>that we were talking about before. Tennessee, Vegas and Philly

0:56:43.600 --> 0:56:45.440
<v Speaker 1>is the only one that's moved in the direction of

0:56:45.440 --> 0:56:45.960
<v Speaker 1>the underdog.

0:56:46.000 --> 0:56:47.680
<v Speaker 3>It was a twelve and a half. Now it's eleven

0:56:47.719 --> 0:56:48.280
<v Speaker 3>and a half eleven.

0:56:48.320 --> 0:56:50.480
<v Speaker 1>The other ones have just gone up, except for Arizona,

0:56:50.520 --> 0:56:51.360
<v Speaker 1>which is holding strong.

0:56:52.000 --> 0:56:53.759
<v Speaker 3>So we know the wise guys are on Vegas here.

0:56:54.120 --> 0:56:57.120
<v Speaker 1>Who's our favorites, Parlay, I feel like we got to

0:56:57.160 --> 0:56:59.919
<v Speaker 1>go like we got we gotta go with the Rams, Yeah,

0:57:00.040 --> 0:57:04.600
<v Speaker 1>green Bay, Green Bay, Kansas City, Buffalo.

0:57:06.640 --> 0:57:15.320
<v Speaker 2>Would you say Buffalo? Buffalo? You know obviously I'm people.

0:57:15.400 --> 0:57:17.080
<v Speaker 2>I gave him that stat the Pittsburgh one.

0:57:17.160 --> 0:57:18.000
<v Speaker 3>I was just gonna say.

0:57:18.280 --> 0:57:22.360
<v Speaker 2>It's got to be a play, a sharp versus square,

0:57:24.040 --> 0:57:25.080
<v Speaker 2>sharp versus square.

0:57:25.800 --> 0:57:27.200
<v Speaker 3>This week we tied.

0:57:29.160 --> 0:57:34.000
<v Speaker 2>I'll do because I tend to go dogs here. I'm

0:57:34.040 --> 0:57:38.040
<v Speaker 2>just so much better at them. But I'll go. I

0:57:38.040 --> 0:57:40.000
<v Speaker 2>gotta do it. I guess I got I'll go Rams

0:57:40.040 --> 0:57:40.840
<v Speaker 2>minus six.

0:57:41.280 --> 0:57:48.440
<v Speaker 1>Okay, Rams minus six, Chad, Let's see Chad. Chad's choice

0:57:48.520 --> 0:57:52.720
<v Speaker 1>was the Packers, Simon says was the Saints. Brass Balls

0:57:53.440 --> 0:57:54.880
<v Speaker 1>was the Vikings.

0:57:56.440 --> 0:57:58.280
<v Speaker 3>I think I'm gonna go with the Bills.

0:58:01.600 --> 0:58:02.120
<v Speaker 2>I love it.

0:58:02.840 --> 0:58:04.480
<v Speaker 3>You think I just jinks, Matt Mitchell, Is that what

0:58:04.480 --> 0:58:05.200
<v Speaker 3>you're saying.

0:58:05.240 --> 0:58:07.600
<v Speaker 2>A little bit? I beg. I'm already drink some I

0:58:07.600 --> 0:58:09.440
<v Speaker 2>love the Bills so much here too, And it's just

0:58:09.560 --> 0:58:11.800
<v Speaker 2>that's how history happens. Like I said, you just it's

0:58:11.840 --> 0:58:13.560
<v Speaker 2>the ones you don't see coming that hurt the most.

0:58:13.560 --> 0:58:14.920
<v Speaker 2>And that's what I'm worried about here. Brother.

0:58:15.080 --> 0:58:18.320
<v Speaker 1>Well, look, we're we're rioting a knife's edge all season

0:58:18.400 --> 0:58:21.320
<v Speaker 1>with some of these teams, right, like trying to get

0:58:21.360 --> 0:58:24.480
<v Speaker 1>off the wagon with the Chiefs, the Bills, the Ravens,

0:58:24.600 --> 0:58:27.440
<v Speaker 1>Like trying to see where the transitions. This is betting.

0:58:27.480 --> 0:58:29.439
<v Speaker 1>You're trying to see the future. It doesn't always work out.

0:58:31.640 --> 0:58:35.000
<v Speaker 1>When we reconvene on Sunday, we're going to be talking about.

0:58:34.720 --> 0:58:36.520
<v Speaker 3>The Chiefs, the Bills.

0:58:37.240 --> 0:58:41.200
<v Speaker 1>Cleveland will have a conversation, the Rams, New Orleans will

0:58:41.200 --> 0:58:47.160
<v Speaker 1>be in the conversation. Green Bay, Minnesota, Maybe Washington, That's

0:58:47.200 --> 0:58:49.440
<v Speaker 1>what I think, Maybe Washington. Those are going to be

0:58:50.000 --> 0:58:52.840
<v Speaker 1>the games from which we choose our final five.

0:58:53.800 --> 0:58:54.880
<v Speaker 3>If I had to make a prediction.

0:58:55.200 --> 0:58:57.880
<v Speaker 1>This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast

0:58:57.960 --> 0:59:01.800
<v Speaker 1>network will be back on Sunday morning, Sharper Square YouTube.

0:59:02.080 --> 0:59:03.280
<v Speaker 3>Don't forget.

0:59:03.360 --> 0:59:05.760
<v Speaker 1>You can ease drop on this very intimate conversation as

0:59:05.800 --> 0:59:06.320
<v Speaker 1>we try to.

0:59:06.720 --> 0:59:09.640
<v Speaker 3>Plan for the misery and glory of the day.

0:59:10.000 --> 0:59:12.560
<v Speaker 1>We'll be back on sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, seven

0:59:12.560 --> 0:59:15.480
<v Speaker 1>point thirty ish after America's Game of the Week, and

0:59:15.760 --> 0:59:18.360
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna recap all that misery. Watch or listen on

0:59:18.440 --> 0:59:21.040
<v Speaker 1>YouTube at sharper Square. Download some Spotify Apple Pods wherever

0:59:21.080 --> 0:59:24.080
<v Speaker 1>you get your pods, rate review, subscribe, Wes five stars

0:59:24.080 --> 0:59:27.200
<v Speaker 1>say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until next time.

0:59:27.640 --> 0:59:28.160
<v Speaker 3>Love you.

0:59:29.520 --> 0:59:30.840
<v Speaker 4>Together, we can do it.

0:59:31.800 --> 0:59:34.360
<v Speaker 3>Nobody can do it alone, but together we can do it.

0:59:34.480 --> 0:59:35.640
<v Speaker 1>Let's play our kind.

0:59:35.440 --> 0:59:37.480
<v Speaker 4>Of football and we'll come out of them with a win.

0:59:37.600 --> 0:59:37.880
<v Speaker 4>Let's go