WEBVTT - Bitcoin Is Entering a Phase Most Will Regret Missing! | David Bailey 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:02.679 We're entering a stage now where people are buying bitcoin. 0:00:02.680 --> 0:00:04.480 They don't even know they're buying it. I don't even 0:00:04.519 --> 0:00:07.840 know that the underlying asset that's driving the performance is bitcoin. 0:00:08.200 --> 0:00:11.360 That creates a levering within the system itself that is 0:00:11.440 --> 0:00:12.200 kind of invisible. 0:00:12.400 --> 0:00:14.480 You recently had tweeted that there's a few new public 0:00:14.480 --> 0:00:16.599 companies announcing bitcoin treasuries every week. 0:00:16.720 --> 0:00:17.680 Soon it'll be every day. 0:00:17.760 --> 0:00:20.160 It's but how you think about like the public companies 0:00:20.200 --> 0:00:23.119 as a bitcoin treasury versus like a strategy type company. 0:00:23.280 --> 0:00:25.599 You meet the buyer where they are, and you sell 0:00:25.640 --> 0:00:28.040 them bitcoin in whatever form or fashion they need to 0:00:28.080 --> 0:00:30.920 be able to buy. Every product that sailor's spinning out 0:00:30.920 --> 0:00:33.800 could be rebuilt and repackaged for every domestic capital market 0:00:33.840 --> 0:00:36.839 wherever there's captured liquidity. What these products are going to 0:00:36.880 --> 0:00:39.200 have buyers? When I think about what a bitcoin treasury 0:00:39.240 --> 0:00:41.960 company is, in my mind, is the new form of 0:00:41.960 --> 0:00:44.960 a bitcoin exchange. Because you're creating a vehicle for people 0:00:45.040 --> 0:00:46.360 to get exposure to bitcoin. 0:00:46.520 --> 0:00:49.000 What is one thing that you could say tell the 0:00:49.000 --> 0:00:51.400 world why bitcoin matters not as a currency, but as 0:00:51.440 --> 0:00:58.000 a revolution. You've predicted that bitcoin could hit a million 0:00:58.080 --> 0:01:00.720 dollars during Trump's presidency, and. 0:01:00.800 --> 0:01:02.320 That sounds insane for most people. 0:01:02.360 --> 0:01:05.160 So what would you say that you see about bitcoin 0:01:05.200 --> 0:01:06.400 that most people are missing. 0:01:08.080 --> 0:01:11.440 Well, you know the million dollar price tag comes because 0:01:11.680 --> 0:01:14.600 that's the if you comp against another asset, it's gold. 0:01:14.640 --> 0:01:17.440 So you know, bitcoin is digital gold. Gold is the 0:01:17.600 --> 0:01:20.640 is the comp and to be at gold bitcoin period 0:01:20.720 --> 0:01:22.160 is a million dollars a bitcoin. I mean, gold's had 0:01:22.160 --> 0:01:24.840 a nice runs. It started I think at at six 0:01:24.959 --> 0:01:26.920 hundred and fifty thousand dollars a bitcoin, but after this 0:01:26.959 --> 0:01:30.800 gold run, now it's a million of bitcoin. You know. 0:01:31.200 --> 0:01:34.399 I think bitcoin's better than gold in every possible from 0:01:34.480 --> 0:01:37.640 every possible metric. I mean, it's more scarce, it's more divisible, 0:01:37.800 --> 0:01:40.120 it can be transported over the internet, it has you know, 0:01:40.160 --> 0:01:45.160 no security costs. You know, it's better in every way, 0:01:45.240 --> 0:01:47.360 and so it should be like, I think a million 0:01:47.400 --> 0:01:49.640 dollars is the floor value of bitcoin when you think 0:01:49.640 --> 0:01:53.400 about it purely from a fundamental perspective, and you know, 0:01:53.880 --> 0:01:55.600 adding the element of I think it can happen in 0:01:55.600 --> 0:01:59.200 the next four years. You know, I could very easily 0:01:59.240 --> 0:02:00.920 see it not happening the next four years. So I'm 0:02:00.920 --> 0:02:04.080 not saying that's like the the most likely outcome. But 0:02:04.480 --> 0:02:06.120 you know, I see a series of factors that have 0:02:06.160 --> 0:02:09.400 built up that have created like a you know, a 0:02:10.840 --> 0:02:14.880 slow motion avalanche that's happening. And I think that as 0:02:14.880 --> 0:02:16.799 the year goes on, this is going to pick up 0:02:16.840 --> 0:02:21.959 speed and you know where it stops. You know, I 0:02:22.520 --> 0:02:25.440 think there's enough buyers in the market, and enough buyers 0:02:25.440 --> 0:02:28.280 that are watching the market that have deep enough liquidity 0:02:28.280 --> 0:02:30.160 and size that they could take this thing all the 0:02:30.160 --> 0:02:32.679 way to a million bucks. And and you know, when 0:02:32.680 --> 0:02:35.880 you start looking at sovereign spying bitcoin, which is happening 0:02:36.000 --> 0:02:40.160 already right now, and you throw in, okay, a couple 0:02:40.160 --> 0:02:43.800 of g twenty countries doing it, the price can just 0:02:44.680 --> 0:02:47.440 can just run really really quickly. And so I think 0:02:47.639 --> 0:02:50.480 it is it is very much within the possibility that 0:02:50.480 --> 0:02:53.360 with the next four years we see gold bitcoin parody. 0:02:53.440 --> 0:02:58.799 Yeah, I agree at Bitcoin Meana in December, I gave 0:02:58.919 --> 0:03:00.800 the closing keynote there and broke down where I think 0:03:00.800 --> 0:03:03.320 it's in twenty thirty, twenty forty, and twenty fifty, using 0:03:03.400 --> 0:03:06.360 sort of basically inflation debasement and sort of math on 0:03:06.440 --> 0:03:08.720 how it takes from gold and other assets. And so 0:03:08.760 --> 0:03:12.480 certainly there's an easy, easy case, a very conservative case 0:03:12.480 --> 0:03:13.400 in my opinion, that we get there. 0:03:13.440 --> 0:03:14.840 And I saw, I'm sure you did. 0:03:15.120 --> 0:03:17.399 Kathy wood Arc put out maybe now two point five 0:03:17.440 --> 0:03:20.760 million in play for twenty thirty, so I don't know 0:03:20.760 --> 0:03:22.160 if you saw that was a couple of days ago, 0:03:22.320 --> 0:03:23.079 a couple of days ago. 0:03:23.080 --> 0:03:25.240 But you know, I'm still I'm still the old guard 0:03:25.240 --> 0:03:27.239 that believes in like the four year cycle, and I 0:03:27.639 --> 0:03:30.920 see the four year cycle changing, so I'm I'm not 0:03:31.000 --> 0:03:33.000 saying that it's an exact four years, but like, I 0:03:33.040 --> 0:03:35.560 still believe in the cycles of bitcoin, you know, the 0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:38.520 the you know, I feel like you need the bear 0:03:38.560 --> 0:03:41.760 markets with the bull markets. There's that there's a relationship 0:03:41.760 --> 0:03:44.360 between the two, and you don't want to just have 0:03:44.840 --> 0:03:46.960 like too long of a period where nothing like kind 0:03:46.960 --> 0:03:48.920 of let's say it's like a fire cleaning out like 0:03:48.960 --> 0:03:52.080 brush from a forest. Do you want that? Yeah, But 0:03:52.160 --> 0:03:55.720 I definitely see this cycle lasting longer. I think the 0:03:55.760 --> 0:03:58.600 buyers that are coming in are much more sophisticated. I 0:03:58.600 --> 0:04:01.680 think that they deploy capital in a different way than 0:04:02.280 --> 0:04:09.200 than what how retail deploys it. And I think that like, uh, yeah, 0:04:09.240 --> 0:04:11.839 I think if we get to a million bucks, there's 0:04:11.840 --> 0:04:14.360 no reason we can't go well beyond a million bucks. Yeah. 0:04:14.440 --> 0:04:16.600 The bigger question to me is kind of like, what's 0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:20.240 the threshold that we cross where bitcoin becomes too big 0:04:20.279 --> 0:04:23.400 to fail? Where you know, a crash of bitcoin actually 0:04:23.440 --> 0:04:27.000 would result in a financial systemic financial issue for the 0:04:27.080 --> 0:04:30.480 for the global markets, and at that point in time, 0:04:31.080 --> 0:04:33.039 then there's only one direction for bitcoin to go, Like, 0:04:33.040 --> 0:04:35.760 once we become too big to fail, there's only up 0:04:35.760 --> 0:04:39.040 into the right. And so I feel like we're we 0:04:39.080 --> 0:04:41.400 approach that point. You know, at a million bucks, you're 0:04:41.400 --> 0:04:44.760 talking about bitcoin being worth basically us GDP, So you know, 0:04:44.920 --> 0:04:47.680 at two million bucks you can't just lose a us 0:04:47.760 --> 0:04:50.240 GDP and and the global economy be okay. You know. 0:04:50.360 --> 0:04:52.800 Yeah, So that's where you sort of think that level 0:04:52.839 --> 0:04:54.560 is at a at a million bucks twenty one train 0:04:54.680 --> 0:04:57.160 market cap is sort of that escape velocity too big 0:04:57.160 --> 0:04:58.599 to fail sort of moment or. 0:04:58.640 --> 0:05:00.120 Yeah, I mean I think it could be low more 0:05:00.160 --> 0:05:01.600 than that. I think it could be lower than that, 0:05:01.920 --> 0:05:05.400 But you know, at that, at that level or somewhere 0:05:05.440 --> 0:05:07.640 near that, it starts to get damn close. I mean 0:05:07.680 --> 0:05:09.520 you're talking I think like commercial real estate is like 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:14.120 thirty trillion. So yeah, twenty one trillion dollar dollar mark 0:05:14.160 --> 0:05:15.920 cap is pretty pretty serious asset. 0:05:16.080 --> 0:05:18.440 Yeah, and it also depends on how much Wall Street 0:05:18.520 --> 0:05:20.680 is allocated to it, maybe how levered up they are 0:05:20.720 --> 0:05:23.320 against it, because you know, we've seen maybe just recently 0:05:23.360 --> 0:05:25.039 in the last couple of weeks where sort of some 0:05:25.040 --> 0:05:26.360 of these hedge funds we're sort of leaning on the 0:05:26.400 --> 0:05:28.640 Trumpe administration like hey, like you got to help us 0:05:28.640 --> 0:05:31.240 out here. We're getting like unwound. And so maybe it's 0:05:31.240 --> 0:05:33.120 not even a trillion, Maybe it's just some of the 0:05:33.160 --> 0:05:34.560 black rock et cetera. They are setting up some of 0:05:34.600 --> 0:05:36.239 these funds. Maybe it gets so over levered. 0:05:36.279 --> 0:05:39.279 But and even if it's not the funds that get levered, 0:05:39.360 --> 0:05:42.440 I mean, we're entering a stage now where people are 0:05:42.480 --> 0:05:44.840 buying bitcoin they don't even know they're buying it, which 0:05:44.880 --> 0:05:47.960 is a very interesting phenomenon. I think it's it's exciting, 0:05:48.000 --> 0:05:52.960 and I think it's a you know, depressingly like probably 0:05:53.000 --> 0:05:55.719 how this plays out because most people just don't care, 0:05:56.720 --> 0:05:59.320 but you know, people are. You know, if you own 0:05:59.560 --> 0:06:02.520 have a retirement account and your your retirement account is 0:06:02.520 --> 0:06:05.120 buying you know, the biggest indexes in the world let's 0:06:05.120 --> 0:06:07.680 say it's buying Nasdaq one hundred. Now you are a 0:06:07.680 --> 0:06:10.640 shareholder of micro Strategy without even without even knowing, and 0:06:10.880 --> 0:06:13.680 you know, my micro strategy is using you know, your 0:06:13.760 --> 0:06:17.320 your shareholder equity to buy bitcoin, so you have exposure, 0:06:17.320 --> 0:06:20.440 and so you're gonna get a statement when micro Strategy 0:06:20.520 --> 0:06:22.320 hundred x's you're gonna get a statement. It's like, oh, wow, 0:06:22.320 --> 0:06:25.240 you're my IRA is performing really well, like my pension 0:06:25.279 --> 0:06:27.480 fund is booming, and so I'm gonna go out. I'm 0:06:27.480 --> 0:06:29.960 gonna spend more money. I might go get a beach house, 0:06:30.240 --> 0:06:32.000 I might go get a mortgage. You know, I I 0:06:32.240 --> 0:06:35.000 do change my behavior because I'm looking at how well 0:06:35.040 --> 0:06:37.880 I'm performing. I don't even know that the underlying asset 0:06:37.920 --> 0:06:41.000 that's driving the performance is bitcoin. Yeah, and so that's 0:06:41.080 --> 0:06:44.200 that creates a levering within the system itself that is 0:06:44.279 --> 0:06:45.080 kind of invisible. 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:46.400 Yeah. 0:06:46.920 --> 0:06:49.080 And we've seen Larry Fink from Black Rocks say that 0:06:49.120 --> 0:06:52.040 they're gonna start recommending to like all their advisor networks 0:06:52.040 --> 0:06:53.640 to start allocating to it. So then all those people 0:06:53.640 --> 0:06:55.600 that use advisors will be allocated into it as well, 0:06:55.640 --> 0:06:58.039 and they won't even know it. We're sort of at 0:06:58.080 --> 0:07:00.520 that point in that game theory competitive land where the 0:07:00.640 --> 0:07:02.280 advisors are going to have to do that if they 0:07:02.279 --> 0:07:03.280 want to remain competitive. 0:07:04.640 --> 0:07:07.760 Oh yeah, and and and I think they've already rolled 0:07:07.800 --> 0:07:10.320 it out in their in their modern portfolio product. I 0:07:10.360 --> 0:07:15.520 mean the uh yeah, I mean I I agree. Like 0:07:15.560 --> 0:07:18.880 I feel like the the the things that need to 0:07:18.920 --> 0:07:21.840 happen to make this outcome occur have already happened. Like 0:07:21.920 --> 0:07:25.640 what now is just like the gravitational momentum of this 0:07:25.800 --> 0:07:28.200 avalanche building as it goes down the mountain. But like 0:07:28.280 --> 0:07:32.320 the I feel like it, there's there's no doubt that 0:07:32.360 --> 0:07:33.840 it makes it to the bottom of the mountain. Yeah, 0:07:33.840 --> 0:07:34.280 you know, so. 0:07:34.840 --> 0:07:36.520 Tell me, tell me let's go back to the four 0:07:36.560 --> 0:07:39.400 year cycle, because that's something that gets talked about quite often. 0:07:40.680 --> 0:07:43.680 I remember last cycle when sailors saying all your models 0:07:43.680 --> 0:07:45.720 were broken, and then of course then. 0:07:46.400 --> 0:07:47.520 The cycle came and hit. 0:07:48.320 --> 0:07:48.520 You know. 0:07:48.560 --> 0:07:50.080 But I think to the point that you're making with 0:07:50.120 --> 0:07:53.320 all the institutional adoptions, specifically a lot of the the 0:07:53.360 --> 0:07:55.680 ETFs and whatnot, a lot of that bitcoin goes into 0:07:55.840 --> 0:07:59.200 deep dark cold storage, right, and they're not really cyclical buyers. 0:07:59.240 --> 0:08:01.280 Is that kind of what you're thinking, I mean, do 0:08:01.120 --> 0:08:02.720 you do you think do you think the volatility just 0:08:02.800 --> 0:08:05.480 dampens down or maybe the four year cycle sort of 0:08:05.560 --> 0:08:07.160 ends and we started to just kind of ramp right 0:08:07.160 --> 0:08:07.520 through it. 0:08:09.000 --> 0:08:11.000 Yeah, it's a good question, and I don't know, like 0:08:11.280 --> 0:08:13.520 and I and I think it's definitely interesting that we 0:08:13.560 --> 0:08:17.640 are in you know, uh, you know, it's nice when 0:08:17.680 --> 0:08:20.160 our when our preconceived notions of bitcoin are challenged. And 0:08:20.160 --> 0:08:21.840 so we had a lot of cycles that looked exactly 0:08:21.920 --> 0:08:23.360 like each other, and you start getting kind of too 0:08:23.360 --> 0:08:26.000 locked into a certain perspective and now like, okay, this 0:08:26.160 --> 0:08:29.080 the cycle is playing out differently, without a doubt, I think, 0:08:29.160 --> 0:08:31.360 you know, in terms of just the the the buyers 0:08:31.400 --> 0:08:33.800 are different. You know, I think there's two phenomenon that 0:08:33.800 --> 0:08:37.000 are happening. One is, you know, if you're going to 0:08:37.040 --> 0:08:39.400 go buy unless you're sailor if you're going to go 0:08:39.440 --> 0:08:41.760 buy a few billion dollars a bitcoin or one hundred 0:08:41.800 --> 0:08:45.600 billion dollars a bitcoin, you're going to implement an acquisition 0:08:45.679 --> 0:08:48.760 program that takes place over time, and you're going to 0:08:48.840 --> 0:08:53.080 be basically dcing effectively at a really big level over 0:08:53.120 --> 0:08:54.960 a long period of time. And so I think like 0:08:55.080 --> 0:08:58.120 that that makes liquidity flow into the system in a 0:08:58.240 --> 0:09:02.640 in a much more progrect like slow and intentional way 0:09:02.720 --> 0:09:06.800 rather than just like you're yoloing in two. I think 0:09:06.880 --> 0:09:11.120 like there's a bigger and bigger amount of of bitcoin 0:09:11.160 --> 0:09:18.679 that is being owned by UH indexes, mutual funds, you know, 0:09:18.920 --> 0:09:22.120 general strategies that are market cap weighted, and they're going 0:09:22.160 --> 0:09:25.320 to be rebalancing their portfolios regularly. And so you're going 0:09:25.400 --> 0:09:29.000 to have a rebalancing effect as you see outperformance from 0:09:29.040 --> 0:09:33.120 from bitcoin both two bitcoin's benefit and also against bitcoin 0:09:33.160 --> 0:09:36.040 as is, people rotate out. And so I think that 0:09:36.040 --> 0:09:40.160 that rebalancing is going to have a a a healthy 0:09:40.360 --> 0:09:43.839 kind of moderating effect in terms of the rate of change. 0:09:44.040 --> 0:09:45.880 Yeah, but you know. 0:09:45.840 --> 0:09:48.120 In terms of like does the volatility come down or not. 0:09:49.320 --> 0:09:53.480 You know, it's interesting, like, you know, I see so 0:09:53.520 --> 0:09:56.080 many products being created that are these like income based 0:09:56.080 --> 0:09:59.720 products where effectively, like you're shorting volatility and that like 0:09:59.760 --> 0:10:04.840 that where the income is being drived from and you know, 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:07.800 you know, running a covered call strategy or something like that, 0:10:07.920 --> 0:10:12.520 and and and like uh that that and of itself 0:10:12.559 --> 0:10:17.680 will dampen volatility until it doesn't and then it'll amplify volatility. 0:10:17.960 --> 0:10:19.720 Like you know, something. 0:10:20.440 --> 0:10:24.680 Yeah, yeah, exactly, it's like uh uh exactly, you're just 0:10:24.720 --> 0:10:28.560 like moving the the the tail fat tail events like 0:10:28.720 --> 0:10:32.040 further out into the tail, but they still happen. So 0:10:32.280 --> 0:10:35.319 I don't know if we're really like, uh, reducing volatility 0:10:35.320 --> 0:10:38.120 over the long term, or if we're just like, uh, 0:10:38.400 --> 0:10:42.760 you know, uh trading less volatility today for more volatility tomorrow. 0:10:42.880 --> 0:10:43.120 Yeah. 0:10:43.559 --> 0:10:45.720 Yeah, I would probably say less volatility, right because as 0:10:45.720 --> 0:10:47.880 the ASCID gets bigger, a one trillion dollar asset is 0:10:47.920 --> 0:10:49.800 much harder to move than five hundred and a half 0:10:49.880 --> 0:10:51.760 half a trillion, and and and so forth. And so 0:10:52.080 --> 0:10:54.240 then you mentioned some of these big like allocators who 0:10:54.280 --> 0:10:59.000 are like rebalancing, so they're selling at the top rebalancing. 0:10:58.320 --> 0:11:02.640 Which then tampers the upside. But then but then they're buying, 0:11:02.760 --> 0:11:03.439 but then they're. 0:11:03.240 --> 0:11:05.800 Buying through the dip, which then keeps the you know, 0:11:05.840 --> 0:11:08.080 the bottom from falling out, And so that volatility just 0:11:08.080 --> 0:11:09.680 starts shrinking probably over time. 0:11:10.559 --> 0:11:12.640 No I I and I agree with that, But you know, 0:11:12.840 --> 0:11:15.720 what you also have is this phenomenon of of bitcoin, 0:11:16.360 --> 0:11:21.520 bitcoin securitization and and bitcoin backed you know, companies effectively 0:11:21.520 --> 0:11:25.000 buying bitcoin and not selling it, right, and and you know, 0:11:25.160 --> 0:11:28.240 if you look at that category, it's it's dominated by 0:11:28.320 --> 0:11:30.360 by micro strategy. But if you look at that category, 0:11:30.400 --> 0:11:32.520 it's like seven hundred and fifty thousand bitcoins or something 0:11:32.600 --> 0:11:37.960 like that are owned by bitcoin treasury companies. You know, 0:11:39.800 --> 0:11:42.000 like project that number forward. Like if you if you 0:11:42.000 --> 0:11:44.400 increase the number of bitcoin treasury companies and you increase 0:11:44.440 --> 0:11:47.440 their time in market, and you increase let's say, their 0:11:47.440 --> 0:11:52.280 ability to uh find additional financing or dilution events because 0:11:52.280 --> 0:11:53.920 the price of bitcoin is going up and that's like 0:11:54.040 --> 0:11:58.000 driving liquidity into these these instruments, then they're going to 0:11:58.000 --> 0:12:01.440 be able to continue to grow an ever increasing rate 0:12:01.600 --> 0:12:06.439 the amount of bitcoin held by those types of vehicles. 0:12:07.000 --> 0:12:09.800 And so you know, if seven hundred and fifty thousand 0:12:09.800 --> 0:12:13.040 bitcoins becomes three million bitcoins or four million bitcoins, like 0:12:13.160 --> 0:12:16.040 it's going to cause a massive supply shock, and it's like, well, 0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:18.000 how do you get the bitcoin out of those companies 0:12:18.040 --> 0:12:22.000 once it goes in? And so ultimately, like if if 0:12:22.480 --> 0:12:24.960 the sailors of the world can accumulate too much bitcoin, 0:12:26.400 --> 0:12:29.079 you know, it doesn't matter if people are rebalancing or not. 0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:32.720 There's there's just going to be a massive squeeze on 0:12:32.720 --> 0:12:36.240 the market, and and until those those businesses, until Sailors 0:12:36.280 --> 0:12:39.199 will sell some bitcoin like it, you know, there's no 0:12:39.240 --> 0:12:41.280 solution for it. I mean it's absolute scarce to do. 0:12:41.679 --> 0:12:45.120 Yeah, And typically you think about price elasticity and there's 0:12:45.120 --> 0:12:47.720 always enough you know, whatever asset to go around at 0:12:47.760 --> 0:12:49.959 the right price. But someone like Sailor probably at no 0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:52.600 price he's selling, and so maybe some of that price 0:12:52.640 --> 0:12:55.040 elasticity doesn't actually work out in some of these some 0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:55.680 of these hands. 0:12:56.720 --> 0:12:58.080 I'm curious how you think about it. 0:12:58.120 --> 0:13:01.040 You recently had tweeted that you there's a few new 0:13:01.080 --> 0:13:03.439 public companies announcing bitcoin treasuries every week. 0:13:03.559 --> 0:13:04.440 Soon it'll be every. 0:13:04.360 --> 0:13:07.720 Day a thousand cash flowing and capital raising public equities 0:13:08.160 --> 0:13:11.480 listed in every market, including in every index, repackaging and 0:13:11.559 --> 0:13:14.439 every wrapper, et cetera, et cetera, every single day. I'm 0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:16.920 curious how you think about And I know Bitcoin magazine 0:13:16.920 --> 0:13:20.199 Pro now has like a tracker where you're tracking like publicly. 0:13:19.840 --> 0:13:21.360 Traded companies that have a bitcoin treasury. 0:13:21.720 --> 0:13:24.040 But how you think about like the public companies, is 0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:27.280 the bitcoin treasury versus like a strategy type company. 0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:29.560 Because the way I think about it is like if 0:13:29.600 --> 0:13:32.319 you're just like putting part of my treasury on bitcoin. 0:13:32.480 --> 0:13:36.120 So what like Apple sitting on billions of dollars, Like, 0:13:36.679 --> 0:13:38.440 what do they have that billions of dollars in? 0:13:38.520 --> 0:13:39.280 Do I really care? 0:13:39.360 --> 0:13:42.120 Does it really affect what their market cap is? And 0:13:42.200 --> 0:13:44.080 so if they decide to put some of that into bitcoin, 0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:46.120 I mean, it's great for bitcoin in a sense where 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:48.440 it's you know, buying it up, But does it really 0:13:48.520 --> 0:13:52.680 affect Apple? So you know, obviously micro strategy is creating 0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:56.719 financial products out of that, but if Apple does, does 0:13:56.760 --> 0:13:58.920 it really And I guess so that's what I'm thinking 0:13:58.920 --> 0:14:00.920 when it's just a treasury company or is it like 0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:02.800 a treasury strategy for the stock? 0:14:03.840 --> 0:14:05.960 Yeah, so I think you know, what sailor is doing 0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:12.040 is monetizing volatility, and so you want max volatility, and uh, 0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:14.719 you know, I think for somebody like Apple, where they 0:14:14.760 --> 0:14:17.840 have an underlying business that has a massive enterprise value, 0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:20.360 that's going to mute the volatility of the stock because 0:14:20.400 --> 0:14:22.320 the business is going to be disconnected from the performance 0:14:22.320 --> 0:14:26.160 of the balance sheet. And so you know, I don't 0:14:26.160 --> 0:14:29.000 think it would work as well for a company like Apple, 0:14:29.080 --> 0:14:31.520 But you know, at the end of the day, you know, 0:14:32.320 --> 0:14:36.360 in the in the uh long term, view of the 0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:39.960 terminal value of bitcoin. Bitcoin as the reserve asset of 0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:43.240 the world. One bitcoin is you know, one twenty one 0:14:43.360 --> 0:14:46.440 millionth of of all the world of all. Yeah, so 0:14:46.560 --> 0:14:48.720 it's you know, like you know, I think apples it 0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:50.440 would be very wise to lock down a couple of 0:14:50.600 --> 0:14:53.000 percentage points of the supply, you know, with their big 0:14:53.040 --> 0:14:54.520 with their bitcoin, But I don't I don't think it 0:14:54.520 --> 0:14:56.440 will have the same effect as it does for for Sailor. 0:14:57.240 --> 0:15:00.120 Sailor is uh, I mean, Sailor is a genius, and 0:15:00.160 --> 0:15:04.600 I mean I'm really interested in seeing like what instruments 0:15:04.600 --> 0:15:08.800 he creates next, and you know, strike and strife. I 0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:12.360 mean I was looking up what other you know, str uh, 0:15:12.680 --> 0:15:15.240 you know, four letter acronyms that he can create, and 0:15:15.240 --> 0:15:17.360 there's quite a few actually, so I already I can 0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:19.240 already predict like a couple that might be coming. 0:15:19.320 --> 0:15:20.440 Yeah, but. 0:15:22.160 --> 0:15:24.800 Uh yeah, I think you know what he's doing is 0:15:24.800 --> 0:15:29.680 is really introducing new levers to create volatility and to 0:15:29.800 --> 0:15:35.200 tap different different parts of his his cap stack with 0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:37.760 different types of buyers. And like, I think the big 0:15:37.800 --> 0:15:40.400 picture thing that's at Sailor has taught me, which is 0:15:41.920 --> 0:15:45.480 you know, so obvious in retrospect is like like you 0:15:45.520 --> 0:15:47.840 meet the buyer where they are and you sell them 0:15:47.880 --> 0:15:50.880 Bitcoin and whatever form or fashion they need to be able. 0:15:50.640 --> 0:15:52.600 To buy boom, which is like, yeah. 0:15:52.400 --> 0:15:54.680 You know, that's like sales one on one, like you know, 0:15:55.160 --> 0:15:59.160 like sales one on one. So he's really pioneered this, 0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:02.360 and I think he this has so many layers to it. 0:16:02.400 --> 0:16:06.840 He can go so much deeper, and he's really pioneering 0:16:06.880 --> 0:16:09.080 the way. The way I'm approaching these things is much 0:16:09.080 --> 0:16:14.040 more sixty IQ. I'm you know, I don't have the 0:16:14.200 --> 0:16:17.120 strategist mind of Sailor or the brilliance of Sailors. So 0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:21.760 you know, I'm just taking the easiest structures to replicate, 0:16:22.040 --> 0:16:25.440 and I'm spreading them horizontally into other markets rather than 0:16:25.480 --> 0:16:29.160 doing you know, basically scaling vertically into other instruments. And 0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:33.520 so you know, I think like this there's just massive 0:16:33.560 --> 0:16:36.600 expansion of this of this terrain, Like you know, strife 0:16:36.640 --> 0:16:40.560 and strike could be recreated for every other international market 0:16:40.600 --> 0:16:43.160 as well, Like every product that Sailor's spinning out could 0:16:43.200 --> 0:16:46.240 be rebuilt and repackaged for every domestic capital market wherever 0:16:46.280 --> 0:16:50.560 there's captured liquidity. What these products are going to have buyers. 0:16:51.240 --> 0:16:53.160 Okay, So that's what I was trying to understand. 0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:55.800 So when you say, you know, when you talk about 0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:59.400 all these public companies and announcing bitcoin treasury programs, it's 0:16:59.440 --> 0:17:01.880 not the apples of the world that have a bunch 0:17:01.920 --> 0:17:04.840 of big treasury and they're allocating some to bitcoin. It's 0:17:04.880 --> 0:17:08.920 other companies that are actually bringing some bitcoin products to market, 0:17:09.200 --> 0:17:11.240 but not maybe in so much in the US markets 0:17:11.280 --> 0:17:13.200 because maybe a lot of that's already sort of taken. 0:17:13.240 --> 0:17:16.800 But how do we launch that in Japan or India 0:17:17.080 --> 0:17:18.159 or Brazil or something like that. 0:17:18.240 --> 0:17:19.359 Is that kind of maybe more. 0:17:19.680 --> 0:17:21.959 Yeah, And I was really combining the two. So, I mean, 0:17:21.960 --> 0:17:24.680 I see both of them as complimentary to each other, 0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:28.280 but yeah, I think they are fundamentally different. You know, 0:17:28.440 --> 0:17:30.800 I think that there is room, though in the US, 0:17:30.840 --> 0:17:33.520 for there to be multiple micro strategies. I think even 0:17:33.520 --> 0:17:37.560 Sailor says, you know, there's there's ten companies that are 0:17:37.600 --> 0:17:40.840 going to be trillion dollar companies, and you know, there's 0:17:40.840 --> 0:17:42.280 one hundred companies that are going to be one hundred 0:17:42.280 --> 0:17:44.280 billion dollar companies, and there's a thousand that are going 0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:45.800 to be ten billion, and you know, so on and 0:17:45.840 --> 0:17:48.560 so forth. And you know, when I look at when 0:17:48.600 --> 0:17:51.000 I think about what a bitcoin treasury company is, in 0:17:51.040 --> 0:17:54.800 my mind, it's it's the it's the new form of 0:17:54.800 --> 0:17:57.399 a of a of a bitcoin exchange, you know, like 0:17:57.440 --> 0:17:59.800 that's effectively what you're what you're doing, is you're creating 0:17:59.840 --> 0:18:03.399 a vehicle for people to get exposure to bitcoin. And 0:18:03.520 --> 0:18:05.879 rather than having a connect your bank account and go 0:18:05.920 --> 0:18:09.240 through KYC and you know, blah blah blah blah blah 0:18:09.320 --> 0:18:12.800 fund your account, instead like you just take a brokerage 0:18:12.800 --> 0:18:14.800 account and you go buy this instrument and boom, now 0:18:14.800 --> 0:18:18.399 you have exposure to bitcoin. And you know, so, like 0:18:18.760 --> 0:18:21.080 how many bitcoin exchanges can the United States support? 0:18:21.240 --> 0:18:21.440 Right? 0:18:21.440 --> 0:18:22.000 More than one? 0:18:22.080 --> 0:18:22.439 Yeah? 0:18:22.480 --> 0:18:24.879 You know, like every one of these businesses they have 0:18:25.000 --> 0:18:27.440 their own network to go to, their own customer base, 0:18:27.480 --> 0:18:29.720 their own way to market the product that they're Like, 0:18:30.520 --> 0:18:33.200 each of these is going to have their incremental differences, 0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:36.719 and so I think there's space for many players to compete, 0:18:36.720 --> 0:18:39.520 and I think competition is really healthy and all of 0:18:39.560 --> 0:18:43.639 them win together by you know, any of them succeeding. 0:18:43.800 --> 0:18:45.280 Yeah. Well, that's the good thing about wealth. It's not 0:18:45.320 --> 0:18:46.480 a zero some game. Right. 0:18:46.520 --> 0:18:48.200 The more wealth that's created, the more wealth we have, 0:18:48.600 --> 0:18:50.720 And I guess if you think about sort of like 0:18:51.240 --> 0:18:55.360 sailor already creating three different products off of it, I mean, 0:18:55.520 --> 0:18:58.159 then you just extrapolate that. I mean, there's potentially infinite 0:18:58.160 --> 0:19:00.280 amount of products that could be created with more creative. 0:19:01.480 --> 0:19:04.480 Correct kind of like that correct. 0:19:04.119 --> 0:19:06.760 It's like I mean, it's it's it's a new asset class, 0:19:06.800 --> 0:19:10.480 and it's like it will balloon in size, and every 0:19:10.520 --> 0:19:13.760