1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: Hello friends, and welcome into Betting Pros college Football Early 2 00:00:04,559 --> 00:00:08,479 Speaker 1: Line look Ahead show. Say that anytime more than once quick. 3 00:00:08,560 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 1: I am Chris Welsh, joined by thorn Nystrom, join by 4 00:00:12,480 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: Eric Froton, the Power team. But we're going to be 5 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:18,480 Speaker 1: looking at the early lines over on Betting Pros for 6 00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:22,560 Speaker 1: college football Week three. We've got a whole lot to 7 00:00:22,560 --> 00:00:25,120 Speaker 1: talk about. We are going to talk about the team 8 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 1: of teams. Yes, the big game because Thor, I would 9 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 1: ask you, is week three? We don't have to get 10 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:32,919 Speaker 1: into the game yet because we're gonna get there. But 11 00:00:33,159 --> 00:00:36,520 Speaker 1: is week three where the disrespect for Colorado will officially end? 12 00:00:36,600 --> 00:00:40,959 Speaker 1: You destroyed? Week three? Colorado was amongst the bets. So 13 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:44,640 Speaker 1: it was a great, awesome football week pretty much shrouded 14 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:47,760 Speaker 1: in how amazing Colorado and Deon Sanders team is. 15 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:51,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean for the public. Yeah, I think we've 16 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 2: gotten there. For the Sharps, I don't know. The sharps 17 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 2: have gotten whipped two straight weeks on Colorado. Got to adjust. 18 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 2: You got to adjust, Like you know, last year we 19 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:05,560 Speaker 2: had the data point on this with the teams that 20 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 2: turned over their rosters and the ones where the talent 21 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:12,680 Speaker 2: got better. And I'm a little bit surprised that some 22 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 2: of the sharps in the market did not see the 23 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:19,039 Speaker 2: Colorado thing coming or adjust enough with the Nebraska thing. 24 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:21,679 Speaker 2: But yeah, the public is certainly getting around on the 25 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:24,640 Speaker 2: college game day. We'll be at that game this week 26 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 2: against Colorado State. But yeah, until the sharps get around 27 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:30,920 Speaker 2: to it, we are getting value, not from the bad 28 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:34,120 Speaker 2: betters in the market on Colorado. So far, we have 29 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 2: gotten it because of the sharps. 30 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, I saw the statement over and over and over 31 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:42,559 Speaker 1: was well, wait till Colorado sees a real defense. Well 32 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 1: they did, and it didn't go so well at first half. 33 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 1: It was kind of an interesting game. But we will 34 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:50,440 Speaker 1: be talking about that Colorado game, that line and how 35 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:52,720 Speaker 1: it moved towards the end of the show. So make 36 00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 1: sure that you are locked in with us. You can 37 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:57,760 Speaker 1: find Thor on Twitter at four k U, Eric Froton 38 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 1: at CFF or cf Froton and I want to ask 39 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:02,320 Speaker 1: you real quick for a time before we get into 40 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 1: the games. Did you notice any like big adjustment in 41 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:09,639 Speaker 1: the player prop market this week from the previous week 42 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 1: you had been kind of killing it. Were there any 43 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:14,120 Speaker 1: big things they got us with? Do you still think 44 00:02:14,120 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 1: there's a big advantage on that player prop market. 45 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:19,639 Speaker 3: Oh yeah, absolutely, there's always an advantage in the player 46 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:22,640 Speaker 3: prop market. And what has really helped is a couple 47 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:25,600 Speaker 3: of years ago, what DraftKings and FanDuel were doing is 48 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 3: you're kind of gatekeepers to the whole, you know, genre 49 00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 3: of props, and they would kind of put out just 50 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:36,359 Speaker 3: plays that they were comfortable with and the more well 51 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:40,920 Speaker 3: renowned players. What's happened is with the proliferation of prize picks. 52 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 3: Underdog you see, Sleeper is into it now, several other 53 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:49,639 Speaker 3: Caesars is in it, bet MGM, Bett Rivers, They're all 54 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 3: putting out props. So with more of these you know, 55 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 3: secondary books diving into the college props market, it doesn't 56 00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 3: allow DraftKings and FanDuel to just to be that gatekeeper 57 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 3: and to have oh no, you can you only get this. 58 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:07,600 Speaker 3: It means that they have to put out everything, and 59 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:09,919 Speaker 3: you have to list as many players as they possibly 60 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 3: can in order to give the best offerings. And when 61 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:15,119 Speaker 3: you list a lot of different players, things fall through 62 00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 3: the cracks. And that was certainly the case again this week, 63 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:20,120 Speaker 3: and it always will be. There'll always be value in 64 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 3: the player. 65 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 1: Prop market well as we go and we talk about 66 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:24,640 Speaker 1: these games. Obviously those lines aren't out there, but if 67 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:27,240 Speaker 1: there's anybody you think people should be paying attention to 68 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 1: early in the week when those start to roll in, 69 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:32,640 Speaker 1: please feel free to drop those in. Make sure you 70 00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 1: guys are subscribed to the podcast. Make sure you guys 71 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 1: are locked in on the YouTube. Just hit subscribe. You're 72 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 1: notified whenever we got a brand new video up. We 73 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:42,720 Speaker 1: thank you all for hanging out with us. And let's 74 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 1: get to some early line looks. So we're gonna jump 75 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 1: right back into Saturday. There is a ranked game, I 76 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 1: believe on Thursday, but the games we want to focus on, 77 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:52,760 Speaker 1: especially on the early looks. Let's get into the Saturday 78 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 1: game and let's go over to LSU. To LSU coming 79 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:58,480 Speaker 1: into the weekend was number fourteen. We'll see where they 80 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 1: are one in one going up against Mississippi State who 81 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 1: is two and zero thor will start with you LSU. 82 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 1: At least the early line looks like they are at nine. 83 00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 1: What does the adjusted four line look like? And what 84 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 1: do you see in this game? 85 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 2: I have LSU minus seven point two. This would not 86 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:18,719 Speaker 2: be a better early kind of a game. I understand 87 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:21,159 Speaker 2: why the market has sort of ticked it up a 88 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:24,560 Speaker 2: couple points for LSU. I'm not the biggest Mississippi State fan. 89 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 2: They did hold on and beat Arizona in overtime this week. 90 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:31,360 Speaker 2: Obviously a lot of the public saw LSU not acquit 91 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:33,839 Speaker 2: itself well in the second half of that Florida State game. 92 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 2: I'm still pretty bullish on them season long, though. Again, 93 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 2: you know, I'm showing that the two points or so, 94 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 2: but they're not over key numbers for me. That one's 95 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 2: a stay away early in the week Forroton. 96 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:46,760 Speaker 1: What do you think when you look at this one? 97 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 1: You hear Thor's line a little bit more in favor 98 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 1: of Mississippi State. They came back in. Is this something 99 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 1: that you could possibly touch on the Mississippi State side 100 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:56,520 Speaker 1: or are you waiting this to come back so you 101 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 1: can bet LSU well. 102 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:02,600 Speaker 3: When Mississippi State, as Thor alluded to, they just survived 103 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:06,840 Speaker 3: as squeaker against Arizona. And what they're doing, it's not 104 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:09,440 Speaker 3: that they beat Arizona thirty one to twenty four and overtime, 105 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:12,280 Speaker 3: it's more the way that they're doing it. And the 106 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 3: air raid ways of Mike Leach are officially a thing 107 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 3: of the past only through for one hundred and sixty 108 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:22,360 Speaker 3: two yards last game, seventeen total passes from Will Rogers. 109 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 3: Speaking of player props markets, Will Rodgers was listed to 110 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:28,200 Speaker 3: eighty three and a half is where he opened to 111 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 3: the starriage mark. Just this, that's a backwards looking line 112 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 3: and we see that all the time thor but look, 113 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:38,719 Speaker 3: I mean seventeen passes they through. This is not the 114 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:42,560 Speaker 3: air raid anymore. So what I have questions about with 115 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 3: this game is, all right, LSU, we saw, you know, 116 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 3: the first game against Florida State done check. We all 117 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 3: know what happened there. But what happens with Makai Wingo 118 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 3: has Mason Smith back and you have that dominant interior 119 00:05:57,279 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 3: that Mississippi State is going to try to run Jacavius Marks, 120 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:02,920 Speaker 3: you know, into the teeth of that defense twenty twenty 121 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:07,120 Speaker 3: five times. That's a different ballgame than we're talking about 122 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:10,280 Speaker 3: as a team. Sure, you can do that against Arizona, 123 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:13,440 Speaker 3: you know, against their soft defensive front, but now you're 124 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:15,800 Speaker 3: going up against LSU. I just think that that is 125 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:20,480 Speaker 3: gonna the LSU front is going to check this Mississippi 126 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 3: State offense and they're gonna have to do this, do 127 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 3: something different. I am backing LSU as well. 128 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:28,360 Speaker 1: Okay, so early line there, look for LSU and look 129 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 1: for that line to move a little bit more in 130 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 1: our favor. Going over to Georgia number one, two and zero, 131 00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:37,200 Speaker 1: going up against South Carolina one on one, the line 132 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:41,640 Speaker 1: look like it opened up around Georgia minus twenty seven. Though, 133 00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:43,360 Speaker 1: I'm gonna come back to you because I did get 134 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:46,159 Speaker 1: to take a look at the adjusted four line sheet 135 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:49,320 Speaker 1: and it looked like the line was actually in the 136 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:52,320 Speaker 1: opposite direction that there might be some value on South Carolina. 137 00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 1: But you tell me, you tell me what this game 138 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 1: looks like. Is there a bet to be played with 139 00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:57,360 Speaker 1: the number one team in the nation. 140 00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:00,320 Speaker 2: Certainly not early in the week. No, the inflation has 141 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 2: already been built into that line. My line on that 142 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:05,400 Speaker 2: game is Georgia. Mine is twenty three point seven. That 143 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 2: that line should be Georgia, mine is twenty four. That's 144 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 2: just what it should be. And so you know, even 145 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 2: if you like Georgia, I can't advocate for you to 146 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:17,240 Speaker 2: play that above twenty four. South Carolina they can throw 147 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:20,320 Speaker 2: the ball, right, they can also play really really good 148 00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 2: special teams. That's you know, that's just the Beamer staple. 149 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 2: We've seen, you know, going back to his dad, but 150 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:27,360 Speaker 2: we've seen that that his time in South Carolina too. 151 00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 2: You give a team that inflated of a thing, one 152 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:34,160 Speaker 2: big special teams play can can flip that thing coming 153 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 2: in through the back door, can flip that. Or Spencer 154 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 2: Ratler just has a really good game and they can 155 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:41,880 Speaker 2: get in through there. For me, this is not a 156 00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:43,960 Speaker 2: game to look at Georgia. For me, this is a 157 00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:45,960 Speaker 2: game where you would look at South Carolina to bet 158 00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 2: if that's what the market's going to do. 159 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:50,080 Speaker 1: Okay. So that's what I was curious about, was because 160 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:52,560 Speaker 1: like in that other one where the it's in favor 161 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 1: of who you're talking about Mississippi State, and you're like, 162 00:07:55,760 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 1: I want LSU and want to wait till it moves. 163 00:07:57,680 --> 00:07:59,360 Speaker 1: I was curious was this going to be the exact 164 00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:02,320 Speaker 1: same things. Now we're gonna wait till this gets back 165 00:08:02,320 --> 00:08:04,560 Speaker 1: into Georgia. But you're saying there might be some early 166 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:07,400 Speaker 1: value line to jump into South Carolina. Now I know 167 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 1: it's just waiting for Georgia. 168 00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:11,240 Speaker 2: Yeah. I don't think this Georgia teams as good certainly 169 00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 2: as last year's they maybe even though on two years ago, 170 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:19,520 Speaker 2: you know, we so I mean last week was ball State, right, 171 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 2: like you know, we we haven't gotten to see him 172 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 2: against like the good competition, but they profiled them, you know, 173 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 2: just sort of my vibes watching them the first couple 174 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:30,840 Speaker 2: of weeks. This team could could could get upset at 175 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:33,839 Speaker 2: some point, whereas that the other couple, you didn't really 176 00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:37,120 Speaker 2: feel that way as much, you know, just a little 177 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:40,440 Speaker 2: bit susceptible. I wonder if Georgia gets into a situation 178 00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 2: with a close game and they're down late that Carson 179 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 2: Beck kid, I'm not sure about that. Well, I mean, 180 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 2: we'll have to see on that. But like you know, 181 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 2: this line, you're pricing them Georgia, like I said, you're 182 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:56,920 Speaker 2: pricing in this inflation that I don't think is warranted 183 00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:59,800 Speaker 2: with this team. So for me, the value is on 184 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:02,920 Speaker 2: South Carolina. But you know, the market is gonna bet Georgia, 185 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:05,320 Speaker 2: right and at this twenty seven and a half, you know, 186 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:07,560 Speaker 2: twenty seven and a half, twenty seven, you know, wherever 187 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:10,439 Speaker 2: it is right now, you're not gonna lose anything by 188 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:12,839 Speaker 2: waiting a little bit, whereas you could gain a ton 189 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 2: if that then gets to twenty eight. So we're gonna 190 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 2: be waiting on that Okay. 191 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:18,600 Speaker 1: So see that's again that's interesting. That's kind of the 192 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:20,640 Speaker 1: opposite in that other game, and that's really where I 193 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:22,920 Speaker 1: was curious where we're going here. So Forroton, that's the question. 194 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 1: Then you hear all this, do you agree it's South 195 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:27,560 Speaker 1: Carolina bet or do you want to play the end? 196 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:29,440 Speaker 1: I mean, obviously you could stay away from this if 197 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:32,680 Speaker 1: it doesn't feel good, But do you think South Carolina 198 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:35,959 Speaker 1: now or waiting to push it to twenty eight, twenty nine, 199 00:09:36,040 --> 00:09:38,439 Speaker 1: something like that, do you think that is the bet? 200 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:40,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not taking it under twenty eight. I would 201 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:42,559 Speaker 3: wait until I got the hook at twenty eight and 202 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:44,520 Speaker 3: a half at the very least. And the reason why 203 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:47,959 Speaker 3: is yah still allude to we already we don't know 204 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 3: what Georgia is going to do against a real team, 205 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 3: but we do know what South Carolina did against North 206 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:57,640 Speaker 3: Carolina in Week one, and what they did is they 207 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:02,200 Speaker 3: ran for negative two yards on thirty one carries. That's 208 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 3: against North Carolina's defense. Now you're going up against Georgia, 209 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:10,240 Speaker 3: even turning over from one of the most biblical defensive 210 00:10:10,280 --> 00:10:13,280 Speaker 3: lines in the history of the sport, there's still the 211 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:17,080 Speaker 3: Georgia defense here. And if you're just gonna rely on 212 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:19,080 Speaker 3: Spencer Ratler to have to throw for three hundred and 213 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:22,320 Speaker 3: fifty yards like he did against North Carolina in a 214 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:24,960 Speaker 3: losing effort. They lost by fourteen points. It was never 215 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:29,960 Speaker 3: really particularly close that game. I always, I mean, UNC 216 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:32,520 Speaker 3: was in control of that game, especially in the third quarter. 217 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:36,440 Speaker 3: I definitely don't feel comfortable taking it under twenty eight, 218 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 3: and you know, leaning stay away for me because of 219 00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:44,240 Speaker 3: how poor they did look against the tar Heels. But 220 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:46,679 Speaker 3: I would wait until at least it gets over twenty eight. 221 00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:49,960 Speaker 1: This game was highlighted. The next game we're going to 222 00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:52,360 Speaker 1: is highlighted by both of you as a game that 223 00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:54,760 Speaker 1: we definitely need to get into and talk about. We 224 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 1: had coming in number fifteen, Kansas State, who is going 225 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:00,480 Speaker 1: into and out against Missouri, who is to and zer 226 00:11:01,200 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 1: the line KSU minus six. I think that was even five, 227 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:07,839 Speaker 1: just like a tiny bit of go so Froton, I 228 00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:09,840 Speaker 1: think this was you were the first one to identify 229 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 1: this one. So let's hear from you on the where 230 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 1: the value is, what the bet is, what is the play? 231 00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 2: Yeah? 232 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 3: Well, I mean we're here as we're talking about it's 233 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:24,600 Speaker 3: the opening, and Kansas State opened at minus two climbed 234 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 3: to minus four and a half. I'm seeing it at 235 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 3: around minus five, even climbing towards minus six in some places. 236 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:35,120 Speaker 3: And it's no secret why. It's because Missouri went out 237 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:38,960 Speaker 3: there against Middle Tennessee this past weekend and put forth 238 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:43,200 Speaker 3: a listless performance three hundred and sixteen total yards against 239 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:45,440 Speaker 3: the Blue Raiders, you know, who is a pretty up 240 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:49,400 Speaker 3: tempo offense and wasn't exactly known for their stout defensive 241 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:51,560 Speaker 3: front last year. You know what I'm saying. I mean 242 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:54,160 Speaker 3: three to sixteen. OI ran for two point four yards 243 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:58,280 Speaker 3: per carry against Mental Tennessee. They're basically in the passing game. 244 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 3: Brady Cook has just forced feeding Luther Burden. You had 245 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 3: like one hundred and fifteen of the team two hundred 246 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 3: and four yards. So I'm seeing a fairly uninspiring if 247 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 3: we're looking at it, offensive attack that just is not 248 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:14,439 Speaker 3: getting it done. I am on Kansas. I want to 249 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:16,439 Speaker 3: take it now before it gets any closer. I dig 250 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 3: I'm going to see you get it closer to seven, 251 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:21,480 Speaker 3: even in Missouri. So that's that's my play. That's what 252 00:12:21,520 --> 00:12:21,959 Speaker 3: I'm feeling. 253 00:12:22,640 --> 00:12:24,920 Speaker 1: Or what do you think on this Missouri hosting game? 254 00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:27,199 Speaker 1: Where's the play. What's the line? What's the adjusted line 255 00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:27,560 Speaker 1: look like? 256 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:30,080 Speaker 2: I ad just a line on this is Kansas State 257 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 2: minus seven point two. They dropped a bad line, and 258 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 2: it's I want to make two points number one. Earlier 259 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:38,520 Speaker 2: in the week that you bet, the more value you 260 00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:41,360 Speaker 2: can get. Obviously, you know you hit these college lines 261 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:44,560 Speaker 2: on Sunday and Monday, you know, totally different lines than 262 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:47,840 Speaker 2: what's there on Friday Saturday. I'll give you one great 263 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 2: for instance from last week. I bet Utah minus five 264 00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 2: and a half last week on you know today, last 265 00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:56,520 Speaker 2: Sunday whatever, That line was up to seven and a 266 00:12:56,559 --> 00:13:01,319 Speaker 2: half by kickoff. Utah ended up winning by seven at 267 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:04,720 Speaker 2: the very end, which you know, the line movement did 268 00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:09,800 Speaker 2: that well exactly. We'll take it. Yeah, we're not going 269 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:12,480 Speaker 2: to turn away any winning tickets, but the whole point 270 00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:15,000 Speaker 2: being that was the difference between a winning ticket and 271 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:18,160 Speaker 2: a losing ticket that you know this Kansas. Yes, what 272 00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 2: Froton said is absolutely right. This line will be where 273 00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:24,079 Speaker 2: my line is very quick. In fact, by the time 274 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:26,600 Speaker 2: people are listening to this on Monday, we record this 275 00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 2: on Sundays, it might be at seven. By that it's 276 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 2: going to get there really quick. That's the objectively fair line. 277 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:35,000 Speaker 2: They dropped a bad line. That's what happens on Sundays 278 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:37,320 Speaker 2: and then the you know, the market knocks it around 279 00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 2: to where it should be whatnot. But not just that. 280 00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:41,480 Speaker 2: The other point I wanted to make is about having 281 00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:44,720 Speaker 2: multiple outs. You guys are mentioning on a lot of 282 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:46,719 Speaker 2: books out there right now. It's five and a half 283 00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:50,880 Speaker 2: for six. There's one where it's minus four still, Kansas 284 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 2: State minus four on my bookie. My friends at my bookie. 285 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:56,120 Speaker 2: I'm giving them all kinds of free promotion this year. 286 00:13:57,040 --> 00:14:00,440 Speaker 2: They do will be some favorites this year so far. 287 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:03,040 Speaker 2: So I mean, you could still get Kansas State minus 288 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:04,800 Speaker 2: four right now. And when people listen to this, they're 289 00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 2: gonna be furious because it's gonna be a couple points 290 00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:09,160 Speaker 2: the other way. But you know, bet early in the 291 00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 2: week and have the multiple books and just look whatever 292 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:14,960 Speaker 2: game you're gonna bet, just look and see what the 293 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:17,520 Speaker 2: lines are. Because the other books I'm on was five 294 00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 2: and a half or six and it's four their still. 295 00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 2: But yeah, I would advocate for anyone as long as 296 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 2: that number is under Kansas State minus seven. Anything beneath that, 297 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 2: I would bet this early in the week, because I 298 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 2: guarantee by kickoff it's going to be at least seven, 299 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:31,720 Speaker 2: might be seven and a half. 300 00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 1: What if it is seven, Let's say when someone is 301 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:36,880 Speaker 1: watching this, let's even say it's like a quick adjusted 302 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:39,960 Speaker 1: thing on Monday or Tuesday. Is it something you want 303 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:41,680 Speaker 1: to wait it out to see if we can get 304 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 1: it under or would you? I know, it's like your 305 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 1: line is right at seven, and there's maybe not like 306 00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:48,040 Speaker 1: extra value, But do you like this team enough to 307 00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:50,480 Speaker 1: bet them at This is a must bet under seven? 308 00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 1: But is it a still bet at seven? 309 00:14:54,040 --> 00:14:57,600 Speaker 2: Well, the value is just evaporated. For I mean, like 310 00:14:57,640 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 2: what I would say in that instance is that you'll 311 00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:02,560 Speaker 2: find more value elsewhere on the board, right because you're 312 00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 2: always going to find the point, discrepancy value whatever. Right now, 313 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:08,920 Speaker 2: we got it on Kansas State. But yeah, once it 314 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:12,400 Speaker 2: gets to seven, now you're starting to play at the margins, 315 00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 2: where you know, some wonky at the end of the game, 316 00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:18,440 Speaker 2: it's more apt to come back and bite us. For me, 317 00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:20,920 Speaker 2: probably at seven, I probably stay away from that thing. 318 00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 2: Certainly at seven and a half stay away from it. 319 00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:26,360 Speaker 2: Seven's right on the line, But yeah, anything beneath that 320 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 2: we're betting Kansas State. 321 00:15:27,920 --> 00:15:29,760 Speaker 1: There's other There's lots of ways to look at these. 322 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 1: You know, there's there's the true value betting, and then 323 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:35,960 Speaker 1: there's just loving a team, and sometimes that gets a 324 00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:38,640 Speaker 1: little clouded when we're breaking down these games, yeah, and 325 00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:39,800 Speaker 1: talking through them. 326 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:41,480 Speaker 2: And to that point, I would say, you have to 327 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 2: bet the number right and not necessarily the team. And 328 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 2: so once you feel comfortable where that number should be, 329 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 2: you're just talking about the discrepancy value shopping, right, Like, 330 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:52,400 Speaker 2: I mean, it's the same thing just like out in 331 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 2: real life whatever. But like, yeah, you can't get sort 332 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:57,720 Speaker 2: of myopic and be like, I know what is going 333 00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 2: to happen in this event that hasn't yet because nobody does, right. 334 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:04,760 Speaker 2: It's so you know, you grind out the advantage on 335 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:08,120 Speaker 2: this thing by just going at the value. We're buying value. 336 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:11,080 Speaker 2: We're not buying this team, that team, this player, whatever. 337 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:12,360 Speaker 2: We're just looking for value. 338 00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:14,160 Speaker 1: And one thing you can do when you're kind of 339 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 1: balancing that you're buying the numbers or you're trying to 340 00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:19,720 Speaker 1: find the teams that Thor likes, well, if you're on 341 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:22,360 Speaker 1: the Betting pros Pro Pick Tracker, then you can get 342 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:24,080 Speaker 1: locked in and you can follow all of those. I 343 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:25,840 Speaker 1: promise you when I tell you guys, I do this. 344 00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:28,280 Speaker 1: I do this with Thor every single Friday. I do 345 00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:30,760 Speaker 1: it like Thursday through Saturday. I'll go through. I'll see 346 00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:32,760 Speaker 1: where Thor is. I also just kind of like to 347 00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 1: like monitor and be like, ah, how good of a 348 00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 1: mood is Thor going to be in on Sunday? So 349 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 1: it's usually in a pretty good mood, really good mood 350 00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:41,120 Speaker 1: this week, So it's going through those. Download the free 351 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 1: Betting pros app for iOS or Android. You can follow 352 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 1: experts actually had a pretty good weekend as well. You 353 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:49,360 Speaker 1: can follow experts, top rated betters, betters on hot streaks, 354 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 1: and you can get instant notifications when new bets are placed. 355 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 1: Customize your notifications by sport so you only receive alerts 356 00:16:56,520 --> 00:16:59,200 Speaker 1: from bets that interest you. You can even limit the 357 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:02,480 Speaker 1: alerts you get to historically ROI positive markets of that 358 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:04,920 Speaker 1: better for you to follow. I mean, I actually I 359 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:07,800 Speaker 1: bet baseball, I bet college football. I bet NFL. I 360 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:11,159 Speaker 1: right now, MLB props would be the thing that it 361 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:13,520 Speaker 1: would push out for me. But I'm having a pretty 362 00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 1: good NFL prop, so we'll see where that goes. If 363 00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:18,399 Speaker 1: you want to take advantage of all these features. Download 364 00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:21,919 Speaker 1: Betting Pros app by visiting Bettingpros dot com, slash apps, 365 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:25,240 Speaker 1: or search Betting Pros in the app store. Let's move 366 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:29,360 Speaker 1: over to the afternoon ish later games and go over 367 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,199 Speaker 1: to number eight, or at least coming in to this 368 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:34,719 Speaker 1: week number eight, Washington who picked up win. They are 369 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:37,959 Speaker 1: two and OL going against a Michigan State who is 370 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:41,359 Speaker 1: two and O. Washington is a sixteen at least at 371 00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 1: this moment, a sixteen point home favorite thor or a 372 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 1: favorite in the game. Let's start with you, what do 373 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:50,120 Speaker 1: you think about this one? Because Washington is not at home, 374 00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 1: this is actually at Michigan State. So Washington minus sixteen 375 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:55,000 Speaker 1: value play. What do we got? 376 00:17:55,960 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 2: Michigan State's going through it right now? Well, Tucker, Well, 377 00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:02,680 Speaker 2: let me just talk about melt Tucker for a second, 378 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:04,919 Speaker 2: because that's that's going to be the story today and 379 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:07,919 Speaker 2: tomorrow in college football. That was the worst in the 380 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:11,199 Speaker 2: moment contract I've ever seen a college give out to 381 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:14,160 Speaker 2: a coach extension or regular one. And you can look 382 00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:16,399 Speaker 2: back on my Twitter to the day it was signed. 383 00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 2: To back up what I'm saying here, trust but confirm 384 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:23,840 Speaker 2: worse in the moment and then now he we won't 385 00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:26,840 Speaker 2: get into the stuff he did that got him fired today. 386 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:30,320 Speaker 2: But Michigan State at least gets to get out of 387 00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:32,679 Speaker 2: that contract with someone who apparently is as bad of 388 00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:35,480 Speaker 2: a human being as he is a head coach. That's 389 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,960 Speaker 2: for the school. Now you can move on. The rest 390 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:41,119 Speaker 2: of the season is going to be a nightmare for Michigan. 391 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:43,080 Speaker 2: At least you're out of the Meltucker nightmare. But now 392 00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:47,600 Speaker 2: you've you've entered another one. I wonder how long these 393 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:50,720 Speaker 2: players will stay on the roster where all your key 394 00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:54,720 Speaker 2: contributors have played two games. I don't think the exodus 395 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:57,320 Speaker 2: comes now. But this is something for people to watch 396 00:18:57,440 --> 00:18:59,479 Speaker 2: or if you can get you know, if there's any 397 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:02,040 Speaker 2: book out there or any you know these exotic books 398 00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:04,399 Speaker 2: that still have a season long win total that they 399 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:07,879 Speaker 2: update on Sundays. Pound they under on Michigan State. They 400 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:11,800 Speaker 2: play Washington this week, and then next week is that 401 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 2: they play a decent opponent the week after that. I 402 00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:17,400 Speaker 2: don't have it in front of me. I think you're 403 00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:20,520 Speaker 2: gonna see a mass exodus from this Michigan State roster. 404 00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:28,320 Speaker 2: Maryland and yeah, yeah, and and and well I'm getting fired. 405 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:30,520 Speaker 1: That was what That was Michigan State falling apart right there. 406 00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:33,120 Speaker 1: That was Yeah, like before the Iowa game. 407 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:35,960 Speaker 2: I think you're gonna see a different roster, yeah, or 408 00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:39,479 Speaker 2: a smaller roster then than they currently have because four games, 409 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:43,439 Speaker 2: four appearances, you get them for free, and then if 410 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 2: you go into your fifth that's when you can't take 411 00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:48,520 Speaker 2: the red shirt anymore. But players can appear in four 412 00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:51,439 Speaker 2: games and still take the red shirt. It might not 413 00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 2: matter for this game. Although this is gonna be the 414 00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,840 Speaker 2: first game after you just fired Tucker. The players are 415 00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:58,160 Speaker 2: going to be getting asked questions all week about melt 416 00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:00,520 Speaker 2: Tucker and the stuff he did as a post to 417 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:03,320 Speaker 2: this opponent they're playing, and the opponent they're playing as 418 00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:06,720 Speaker 2: one of the five best offenses in America. Washington was 419 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:11,159 Speaker 2: gonna spank Michigan State either way. Circumstantially here, this is 420 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:14,480 Speaker 2: not looking good for Michigan State. And yeah, you bring 421 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:18,159 Speaker 2: in Washington. Is the home crowd gonna be fired up 422 00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 2: to get behind old Sparty in this one? I don't 423 00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 2: think so. They're gonna be wondering, like, you know, can 424 00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:25,840 Speaker 2: we get Tucker for cause? Can we get any of 425 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:27,800 Speaker 2: that money back? If we can? Who are we gonna 426 00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:29,840 Speaker 2: you know what candidate are we gonna roll that into 427 00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:34,080 Speaker 2: next my system, you know, like in a vacuum would 428 00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:36,760 Speaker 2: show just you know, a slight amount of value on 429 00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:41,720 Speaker 2: Michigan State. But that's outside of all these circumstances. You 430 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:44,640 Speaker 2: can't bet Michigan State here. This line is gonna keep 431 00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:47,760 Speaker 2: going up, I think, and I think Washington is gonna 432 00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:50,159 Speaker 2: have a field day at Michigan State this weekend. 433 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:52,120 Speaker 1: What was the adjusted line? I think you're saying there's value? 434 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:54,440 Speaker 2: What is the point two? But that you know that's 435 00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:57,919 Speaker 2: both rosters full strength, that's not the scandal and and 436 00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:01,639 Speaker 2: everything like that. That justin event vacuum, you got to 437 00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:03,959 Speaker 2: be ating some points. Now you're going to have a 438 00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:07,720 Speaker 2: portion of this roster wondering where they're gonna be. Certainly 439 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:11,119 Speaker 2: by next season, Uh, there's gonna be a decent amount 440 00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:13,400 Speaker 2: of players on that team that are they're thinking about 441 00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:16,000 Speaker 2: this math I'm talking about. We've already played in two. 442 00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:18,600 Speaker 2: Should I play in the two more? Then you know, 443 00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:20,440 Speaker 2: leave the team? Should I just leave the team? Now, 444 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:23,520 Speaker 2: this is not good for Michigan State going forward this 445 00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:25,479 Speaker 2: this season. It's good to get me all out, but 446 00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:26,600 Speaker 2: not good for the rest of. 447 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:30,199 Speaker 1: This season, Troton Thor just laid out. Doesn't sound like 448 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,920 Speaker 1: from a data standpoint, there's any value in the game. 449 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:36,000 Speaker 1: There's a disaster that's looming around it. Is there a 450 00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:38,600 Speaker 1: bet here for you? Is this completely hands off? Or 451 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:40,560 Speaker 1: do you want to hammer Washington? 452 00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:40,960 Speaker 2: Yeah? 453 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:43,840 Speaker 3: I want Washington absolutely give me that sixteen before it 454 00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:44,840 Speaker 3: gets past seventeen. 455 00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 2: I think it's been there. You gotta remember Washington. 456 00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 3: What Boise State, who had a pretty decent defense last 457 00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:57,520 Speaker 3: year on fire fifty six to nineteen game one, Uh, 458 00:21:57,680 --> 00:21:59,879 Speaker 3: you know, thirty seven point victory. You can tell me 459 00:21:59,920 --> 00:22:05,520 Speaker 3: that this Michigan State team who immediately after spring Peyton Thorne, 460 00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:10,960 Speaker 3: starting quarterback Keon Coleman, the NFL caliber wide receiver who 461 00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:15,600 Speaker 3: made his presence known against LSU in Week one, both 462 00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 3: of them hit the road after the spring. It's you 463 00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:20,720 Speaker 3: got to think they must have seen the writing on 464 00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:23,520 Speaker 3: the wall in some respect. They have a starting QB 465 00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:24,719 Speaker 3: and the and the wide receiver. 466 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:25,360 Speaker 2: One hit the road. 467 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:29,200 Speaker 3: Jeremy Bernard, who is a very promising wide receiver, transferred 468 00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:33,360 Speaker 3: to Washington before the season. You know, so, uh, this 469 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:36,439 Speaker 3: is was just the beginning, you know, in the spring 470 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 3: of this exodus there's only more coming absolutely on. Give 471 00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:46,080 Speaker 3: me those Washington tickets, and uh, you know, I think 472 00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:48,439 Speaker 3: it's I think it's a pretty easy call frankly at 473 00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:49,240 Speaker 3: this point. 474 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:51,440 Speaker 1: All right, so let's move to the next game. We're 475 00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:54,320 Speaker 1: going to Penn State, who came in at number seven 476 00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:56,400 Speaker 1: this week and they are two to zero facing off 477 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,440 Speaker 1: against Illinois. I've got Penn State as a sixteen and 478 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: a half point five. It's probably gonna slide around a 479 00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:04,199 Speaker 1: little bit. Froton, what do you think. Let's start with 480 00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:07,720 Speaker 1: you on this one. Penn State on the road sixteen 481 00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:09,399 Speaker 1: and a half points. Is that something you want to 482 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 1: bet on? Penn State? Where's the value? What's the play? 483 00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:12,080 Speaker 1: What do you got? 484 00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:16,080 Speaker 3: Well, I know what the play wasn't certainly wasn't. Illinois 485 00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:20,240 Speaker 3: against Thor's Jayhawks this past week, my gosh. 486 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:23,440 Speaker 2: I mean yeah, going back to a ball baby. 487 00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:27,119 Speaker 3: Oh jeez, I mean Illinois loses so much off that 488 00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:30,639 Speaker 3: twenty twenty two just incredible team too. It's not like 489 00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:33,239 Speaker 3: that was a great team they had last year. But 490 00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:36,600 Speaker 3: out goes Ryan Walters who's now at Purdue. You know, 491 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:42,159 Speaker 3: three NFL draft pick draft picks out of the secondary. 492 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:47,399 Speaker 3: You know, Merriweather they're all gone. You know, you graduate 493 00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:51,880 Speaker 3: a quarterback who you know, Tommy Devido, the good fella himself. 494 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,520 Speaker 3: While he wasn't you know, an all pig ten caliber, 495 00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:57,560 Speaker 3: he completed sixty nine percent of his passes last year. 496 00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 3: And while his layered throws weren't you know, a specialty 497 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:02,600 Speaker 3: of his. As I saw him at the Shrine Bowl. 498 00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,600 Speaker 3: Try to make what he did do well is within 499 00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:08,240 Speaker 3: fifteen yards of the line of scrimmage. He was very accurate. 500 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:10,520 Speaker 3: He's hitting those guys in stride Isaiah Williams all over 501 00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:13,639 Speaker 3: the place. So even though I like Altmeier and he 502 00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:17,480 Speaker 3: adds a you know, a different rushing wrinkle man, this 503 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:21,639 Speaker 3: is a different team, you know. And they got handled 504 00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,399 Speaker 3: by Kansas. This wasn't just a lost. Kansas put up 505 00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:26,919 Speaker 3: five hundred and thirty nine total yards on them. They 506 00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,200 Speaker 3: ran for two sixty two six yards per carry. Okay, 507 00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:33,360 Speaker 3: what do you think happens when you know, now Penn 508 00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:37,280 Speaker 3: State comes to town and they're rocking on all cylinders. 509 00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:42,080 Speaker 3: Drew Aller looks incredible. You know, the five star QB again, 510 00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:45,160 Speaker 3: probably the twenty twenty five QB one if we're looking 511 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:47,480 Speaker 3: at from the NFL draft standpoint, just too much there, 512 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:51,439 Speaker 3: I have to go with Penn State, and frankly, I 513 00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:54,520 Speaker 3: mean I don't, I don't. I don't see how you 514 00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:55,800 Speaker 3: can take Illinois here. 515 00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:57,960 Speaker 2: Is there a by way? 516 00:24:58,000 --> 00:24:59,639 Speaker 1: Is there a player prop out of Penn State with 517 00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:01,600 Speaker 1: a penns quarterback or anybody? Is there anything you're going 518 00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:04,520 Speaker 1: to be looking for going up against Illinois? 519 00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:10,520 Speaker 3: Keandary Lambert Smith has really emerged as the wide receiver 520 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:12,639 Speaker 3: won there over the first two weeks. I'm curious to 521 00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:14,639 Speaker 3: see what his line span has been pretty low, like 522 00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:18,640 Speaker 3: the in the fifties. You know, Singleton has been priced 523 00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:22,200 Speaker 3: in the eighties, pretty consistent, like eighty five eighty seven. 524 00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:24,960 Speaker 3: He went under that last week simply because they didn't 525 00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,600 Speaker 3: have to, you know, really lean on him too much. 526 00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,240 Speaker 3: And you have k Tron Allen there. He had three touchdowns, 527 00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:33,640 Speaker 3: but like getting the ninety yards every single week, Singleton 528 00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:36,280 Speaker 3: will be tough. I'm curious to see where they put 529 00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:37,159 Speaker 3: those two lines. 530 00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:40,440 Speaker 1: Bor, what do you think about Penn State minus sixteen 531 00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:42,760 Speaker 1: and a half? Is there value in the adjusted line? 532 00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,720 Speaker 2: I got Penn State minus seventeen point two. It's funny 533 00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:49,960 Speaker 2: this thing actually opened today at fourteen and so we 534 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:53,000 Speaker 2: knew this thing was going to get to seventeen real quick. 535 00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:55,080 Speaker 2: I mean not quite there, but it will be by 536 00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,400 Speaker 2: the time people listen to this. I promise it'll either 537 00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,480 Speaker 2: be seventeen or seventeen and a half. So yeah, we 538 00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:03,400 Speaker 2: you know out there you're missing your window to get 539 00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:07,000 Speaker 2: Penn State right now. But under seventeen is the buy 540 00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:09,640 Speaker 2: sign on Penn State. I'm not impressed with Illinois at all. 541 00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:11,800 Speaker 2: For a time, went into it a little bit. They 542 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:15,280 Speaker 2: lost more talent in any one off season than they 543 00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,600 Speaker 2: ever had in school history. That's what happens when you 544 00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 2: have a historic draft class come out of your team. Also, 545 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:23,639 Speaker 2: the Belkow running back right, Like, I like Brett be 546 00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,199 Speaker 2: Bilam enough, but like we'll have to see now that 547 00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:28,160 Speaker 2: he has all of his own guys because a lot 548 00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:30,439 Speaker 2: of those guys that just left were actually recruited by 549 00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:32,680 Speaker 2: Lovey Smith. It's just Brett Bielama helped him sort of 550 00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,080 Speaker 2: raise their game a little bit. But yeah, this team 551 00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:37,840 Speaker 2: he let me see. So I watch, of course, every 552 00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:39,879 Speaker 2: snap at the Kansas Illinois game on Friday. I do 553 00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:41,920 Speaker 2: not miss a snap of Kansas football. Let me say 554 00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:44,320 Speaker 2: this for the Illinois team, I actually kind of like 555 00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:47,880 Speaker 2: that Luke Altme kid. He in fact, I think he's 556 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:51,880 Speaker 2: better than Tommy DeVito. He scrambles around, he doesn't make 557 00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:56,080 Speaker 2: awful decisions, and he has a decent sense about him 558 00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:58,000 Speaker 2: right like he knows where the ball should go, he 559 00:26:58,000 --> 00:26:59,960 Speaker 2: plays within the offense, stuff like that. But he can 560 00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:03,359 Speaker 2: also add some stuff to the table. He's not a star, 561 00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:07,160 Speaker 2: neither was de Vito. But like at the other positions, 562 00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:11,080 Speaker 2: that's where you've seen this cratering of talent, right Like 563 00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:14,320 Speaker 2: you know, in the running back room, for instance, no 564 00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:16,440 Speaker 2: one was lower on Chase Brown than I was during 565 00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:18,880 Speaker 2: the draft process. But Chase Brown quite a bit better 566 00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:22,440 Speaker 2: than Reggie Love and the Corbin kid or the other 567 00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:24,840 Speaker 2: kid they got there. And then in the secondary, he 568 00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:29,520 Speaker 2: went from arguably the nation's best last year to at 569 00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:32,800 Speaker 2: best average in the second And I don't think they're 570 00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:37,480 Speaker 2: even FBS average. Kansas was getting those guys turned around, confused, 571 00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:40,560 Speaker 2: and they're not the most athletic either out there, Like 572 00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:44,440 Speaker 2: Illinois went from having this dominant secondary to being a 573 00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:47,679 Speaker 2: little bit problematic in the secondary against teams that are 574 00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,480 Speaker 2: able to push the ball down there. So I don't 575 00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:53,359 Speaker 2: love that that team. And I'm higher on Penn State, 576 00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:57,280 Speaker 2: But the by sign would probably stop for me at seventeen. 577 00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:58,560 Speaker 2: I don't know if I would want to lay that 578 00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,960 Speaker 2: hook up there turned into a stay away, but under seventeen, 579 00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:04,400 Speaker 2: still sixteen and a half out there, that would still 580 00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:05,639 Speaker 2: be a fire on Penn State for me. 581 00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:07,399 Speaker 1: Let's go to some esses. 582 00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:08,160 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, go ahead. 583 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:11,399 Speaker 3: You got quick note that thor had alluded to with 584 00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:15,160 Speaker 3: as you mentioned Chase Brown graduating, it's now Josh McCrae 585 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:18,920 Speaker 3: and Reggie Love as so like a two headed backfield. 586 00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:22,200 Speaker 3: Penn State is nine and two against the spread when 587 00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:26,880 Speaker 3: allowing less than five yards per rush since last season. 588 00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:28,720 Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be really hard for them to 589 00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:31,240 Speaker 3: penetrate that Penn State front, and I think that's a 590 00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:33,120 Speaker 3: a harbinger of things to come. 591 00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:36,720 Speaker 1: Let's look at some SEC football. We've got number nine, 592 00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:39,280 Speaker 1: whoever's going to adjust there? The two and zero Tennessee 593 00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:42,480 Speaker 1: volunteers going up against Florida, who's one and one Tennessee. 594 00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:45,240 Speaker 1: At least I see a hook. I got minus seven 595 00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:47,320 Speaker 1: and a half. There's some adjustment there for a time. 596 00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:49,880 Speaker 1: Let's actually go back to you here on this matchup. 597 00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:52,960 Speaker 1: Where's the play? Is there a play for you? What 598 00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:55,160 Speaker 1: are you focusing on? And what do you think this 599 00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,680 Speaker 1: line is going to adjust to? Is the week moves on? 600 00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,160 Speaker 1: Tennessee minus seven and a half is again what I'm 601 00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:00,560 Speaker 1: looking at. 602 00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:05,080 Speaker 3: God, you know I want to take Tennessee seven and 603 00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:07,000 Speaker 3: a half, like right out of the gate. As soon 604 00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:09,000 Speaker 3: as as soon as you look at this, you're like, oh, whoa. 605 00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:13,880 Speaker 3: You know, obviously I want it. But man, they didn't. 606 00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:17,480 Speaker 3: Joe Milton. I just don't believe in him. I don't 607 00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:20,800 Speaker 3: believe Joe Milton is the second coming at Hendon Hooker. 608 00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:23,440 Speaker 3: He got beat out at Michigan by Kate mcnamaray. He 609 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:26,920 Speaker 3: comes here, he gets beat up by Hendon Hooker, and 610 00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:32,080 Speaker 3: he didn't look great yesterday. This week they this should 611 00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:36,040 Speaker 3: be all systems go for Tennessee. Everything makes sense here, 612 00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:39,640 Speaker 3: you know, hypel everything. Florida, my gosh, Billy Napier and 613 00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:42,800 Speaker 3: that whole entire team is how they looked against Utah, 614 00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:46,320 Speaker 3: against pair of backup qbs. You know, I can't get 615 00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:50,920 Speaker 3: behind the Gators. I just can't. You know, this this 616 00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:55,800 Speaker 3: line line was brutal, you know, the offensive line. I 617 00:29:56,000 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 3: don't believe Graham Mertz. So I'm gonna hold my nose 618 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:02,280 Speaker 3: and I think Tennessee is the play here. 619 00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:04,959 Speaker 1: What do you think thorn thor can you get behind Florida? 620 00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:06,760 Speaker 1: And can you get behind Florida at home? 621 00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:10,160 Speaker 2: I don't think I can get behind Florida. But yeah, 622 00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:12,239 Speaker 2: I mean my you know, my projected spread on this 623 00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:15,200 Speaker 2: is Tennessee minus five point one, and it's tough, like 624 00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:18,120 Speaker 2: what Froton brings up. That's that would be my concern 625 00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:20,800 Speaker 2: about Land more than that, you know now, because we 626 00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:23,280 Speaker 2: already see in this line, you know, around a touchdown 627 00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:27,120 Speaker 2: wherever it is or a little bit above whatever. It's 628 00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:30,800 Speaker 2: Joe Milton last week he started out like something like 629 00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:34,440 Speaker 2: one for eight against an FCS team, and it's like, 630 00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:37,160 Speaker 2: oh boy, here we go again. Joe Milton, the guy 631 00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:40,800 Speaker 2: who is one to one two starting jobs in college 632 00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:43,480 Speaker 2: to this point, lost both of them immediately when the 633 00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:46,280 Speaker 2: season started. And then you're starting to see him against 634 00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:49,280 Speaker 2: Robert friggin Morris or whoever it was yesterday, he's like 635 00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:51,959 Speaker 2: one for eight for four yards. It's like, oh god, 636 00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:54,920 Speaker 2: you know, and you're just wondering, like, you know, how 637 00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:58,200 Speaker 2: long until hypol yanks the court on him for that 638 00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,280 Speaker 2: true freshman kid brought How do you pronounce the last 639 00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:03,000 Speaker 2: name for a time, I'm afraid to say it's Nico. 640 00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:06,920 Speaker 2: I okay, well, very good. 641 00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:13,000 Speaker 1: Uh nine point four for the dismount there for a. 642 00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:14,920 Speaker 2: Time, Yeah that was that was pretty good. But yeah, 643 00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:17,240 Speaker 2: I'm wondering about that. I don't trust Joe Milton as 644 00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:18,960 Speaker 2: far as I can throw, but I hate this Florida 645 00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:21,560 Speaker 2: team too, So this is probably going to be a 646 00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:23,960 Speaker 2: stay away from me, assuming that you know, it's seven 647 00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,960 Speaker 2: and seven and a half. I cannot see backing Florida. 648 00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:30,480 Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean my line would show a little 649 00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:31,920 Speaker 2: bit of value on Florida in that one. 650 00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:35,120 Speaker 1: I'm always fascinated when you have the line. I mean 651 00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:37,440 Speaker 1: that's like like a two point move. That that's over 652 00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:40,080 Speaker 1: two point move. Yet you're like, nah, I'm not touching that. 653 00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:42,120 Speaker 1: Like those always are really fascinating to me, even if 654 00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:42,880 Speaker 1: I've seen Florid. 655 00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:46,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, you know, I yeah, I see you know, 656 00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:48,800 Speaker 2: And like, I mean, I can't think of another word 657 00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:51,560 Speaker 2: off tom My head. Florida was impotent in the opener 658 00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:54,400 Speaker 2: against Utah, and so it's like, wow, you know, Utah 659 00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:58,480 Speaker 2: must be pretty dang good. Utah struggled so badly to 660 00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:01,680 Speaker 2: get by a Baylor team on Saturday, a Baylor team 661 00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:04,840 Speaker 2: that had gotten whipped by Texas State the week before. 662 00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,720 Speaker 2: Then Texas State turns around and loses to you know, 663 00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:09,840 Speaker 2: it was to UTSA, and I guess technically they did 664 00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:11,959 Speaker 2: cover by a few points in that game, but it's like, 665 00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:13,840 Speaker 2: you know, tuch State and a world beater last year, 666 00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:16,360 Speaker 2: they won four games, they fired their coach, whatnot, and 667 00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:18,400 Speaker 2: so you're wondering about all this, and it's like, uh, 668 00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:21,200 Speaker 2: you know, it's sort of hard to you know, it's like, 669 00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:24,080 Speaker 2: am I even lower on Florida than I was before? 670 00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:26,800 Speaker 2: But yeah, for me, this is probably a stay away. 671 00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:28,920 Speaker 2: I don't really like either of those two teams. I've 672 00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:31,680 Speaker 2: definitely don't Florida. Of course that goes without saying. But 673 00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:33,760 Speaker 2: I've also downgraded Tennessee a bet. 674 00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:35,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, I can never I don't think I can ever 675 00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:38,000 Speaker 1: bet Utah again. After sweating that out. That was too much. 676 00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:39,800 Speaker 1: They looked just so bad for so long. 677 00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:42,720 Speaker 2: Covers a cover, well, hey they. 678 00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:45,440 Speaker 1: Ah, I had I told you, I told you, alf Air. 679 00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:47,520 Speaker 1: I had a couple of moneyline parlays too going on. 680 00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:49,600 Speaker 1: I don't like to do crazy with parlays, but I 681 00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:52,200 Speaker 1: missed that early line. After the show last week on Utah, 682 00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:53,600 Speaker 1: and I was like, I want to have some exposure, 683 00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:55,480 Speaker 1: but I don't want to pay. I think it was 684 00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:57,640 Speaker 1: at seven or seven and a half when I was 685 00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:00,760 Speaker 1: really locked in, So I decided to moneyline Harley and 686 00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:03,320 Speaker 1: I cash because Utah was in both of them, but 687 00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:06,000 Speaker 1: I was sweating. I didn't like it one of them. 688 00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:09,280 Speaker 2: I also want to know. Oh, well, I was gonna say, 689 00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:11,720 Speaker 2: probably my favorite thing is the sports better is where 690 00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:14,160 Speaker 2: not in the moment, but afterwards, is when you get 691 00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:16,600 Speaker 2: so disgusted with the team that you bet on that 692 00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:19,080 Speaker 2: you take it off one of your TVs, and then 693 00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:21,000 Speaker 2: like an hour and a half later you realize, like, 694 00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:23,520 Speaker 2: oh my god, they're on the Press of Business potentially 695 00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:27,360 Speaker 2: covering here. I shut that the Utah Bailey. Well, I 696 00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:29,040 Speaker 2: put it on like my fist screen that I'm you know, 697 00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,480 Speaker 2: I'm not my little laptop one like, cause I was 698 00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:33,640 Speaker 2: so disgusted with the way Utah was playing against this 699 00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:36,160 Speaker 2: team that had just gotten smoked by Texas State at home. 700 00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:38,800 Speaker 2: But then Utah at the very end they tie it up, 701 00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:41,720 Speaker 2: They get it to the tie, somehow score the touchdown 702 00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:44,960 Speaker 2: in the last minute. So then you're you're feeling real good. 703 00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:47,040 Speaker 1: I was trying to tap into the betting universe, like 704 00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:49,440 Speaker 1: I was like, I would turn on and then something 705 00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:51,200 Speaker 1: bout it happened. I'm like, no, I can't watch. And 706 00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:53,360 Speaker 1: then when something good things would start to happen. When 707 00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:54,960 Speaker 1: I don't watch, I'm like, oh, I'm not supposed to 708 00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:57,120 Speaker 1: watch anymore, and then I would come back to it 709 00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:57,680 Speaker 1: something good. 710 00:33:57,720 --> 00:33:57,840 Speaker 3: Oh. 711 00:33:57,880 --> 00:33:59,560 Speaker 1: Now, I was just trying to like dial it and 712 00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:01,480 Speaker 1: none of it means anything, but in my head it 713 00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:03,640 Speaker 1: meant something and we did get there. But also wanted 714 00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:06,120 Speaker 1: to point out I do think it's an extra piece 715 00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:09,920 Speaker 1: of credit hopefully people give you the attention for. Is 716 00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:13,120 Speaker 1: that sometimes with this type of stuff, you know, your 717 00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:14,879 Speaker 1: numbers can just spit it out and you're just like, well, 718 00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:16,440 Speaker 1: this is what the numbers say, this is what I'm 719 00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:18,880 Speaker 1: going to bet. That's not the case here. You're talking 720 00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:21,000 Speaker 1: to us in a place where sometimes the numbers are 721 00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:23,040 Speaker 1: showing a little bit of value or I would say 722 00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:25,400 Speaker 1: two plus points of value is pretty significant in the 723 00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:28,080 Speaker 1: world that we talk here, and you're just still like, no, 724 00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:30,879 Speaker 1: I'm not doing it. It also speaks to just your 725 00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:32,680 Speaker 1: knowledge of the game, both your guys's knowledge of the 726 00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:35,120 Speaker 1: game and I think it's just an important separating factor 727 00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:37,240 Speaker 1: in all of this that it is not just simply 728 00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:39,600 Speaker 1: well the math says it, so we do it. You've 729 00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:42,200 Speaker 1: got to have some actual like you know, game applement 730 00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:44,160 Speaker 1: and going and breaking through here. So I just want 731 00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:45,920 Speaker 1: to give you extra credit for that because I think 732 00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:48,920 Speaker 1: that's missing. Sometimes it's a great point projection world. 733 00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:51,279 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, like the you know, I think it's 734 00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:54,080 Speaker 2: sort of like a guideline or like bumpers for me. 735 00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:56,759 Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean that's all it's doing. It's sort 736 00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:59,240 Speaker 2: of you know, where should we start, but like outside, 737 00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:01,880 Speaker 2: you know, everything else, my handicap and every you know, 738 00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:04,239 Speaker 2: obviously my perception of the team and whatnot. It's going 739 00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:06,479 Speaker 2: to inform the rest of it. But you just sort 740 00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:08,879 Speaker 2: of know we're in a vacuum. This is what would 741 00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:11,080 Speaker 2: be fair. This would be the fair sticker price, and 742 00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:13,320 Speaker 2: then yeah, you had the rest of it and hopefully 743 00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:15,439 Speaker 2: you cash from tickets exactly. 744 00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:16,920 Speaker 1: All right, So I teased it at the top of 745 00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:18,680 Speaker 1: the show. This is going to be our last big 746 00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:21,319 Speaker 1: focal point game. We do have, just like we did 747 00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:26,280 Speaker 1: last week, the smaller game or line game line change potentials, 748 00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:29,879 Speaker 1: games that could have some changing potential that each one 749 00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:31,640 Speaker 1: of these guys that both focused on. We've got two 750 00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:33,960 Speaker 1: from Froton, three from four. We're going to get them 751 00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:36,319 Speaker 1: on some quick hitters on who those games and what 752 00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:38,960 Speaker 1: those games are. But at the top, I teased the 753 00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:42,279 Speaker 1: most exciting team in college football right now. They came 754 00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:45,239 Speaker 1: in number twenty two Colorado two and zero now going 755 00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:49,520 Speaker 1: up against Colorado State. Colorado I believe opened up at 756 00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:52,480 Speaker 1: twenty one or twenty one and a half, or at 757 00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:55,439 Speaker 1: least the conversation was that, and it's at twenty three 758 00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:59,160 Speaker 1: and a half right now. Colorado is a monster. It 759 00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:01,600 Speaker 1: is the most fun I think it's it's the most 760 00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:03,520 Speaker 1: fun to watch, and I think it is great for 761 00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:06,680 Speaker 1: college football for even the casual fans. To casual fans 762 00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:09,440 Speaker 1: sometimes need ways to lock in, and even casual betters 763 00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:12,160 Speaker 1: need ways to lock in. Colorado has been that. But 764 00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:15,399 Speaker 1: this is going to be the first big line, maybe 765 00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:18,080 Speaker 1: not the first test, obviously not, but the first big 766 00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:20,920 Speaker 1: line that Colorado's going to rock here. So Thor, let's 767 00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:23,759 Speaker 1: start with you. You alluded to it earlier on that 768 00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:28,360 Speaker 1: the Shark. The Sharps pushed hard against Colorado last week. 769 00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:33,160 Speaker 1: Big Defense bet the house on Nebraska two and a half, 770 00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:36,919 Speaker 1: and everybody that did that kind of came out looking bad, 771 00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:40,440 Speaker 1: of course, But now we're in the third game. This 772 00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:43,160 Speaker 1: is is it a letdown spot, it's a bad team. 773 00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:45,759 Speaker 1: Just talk to us about the betting nature of Colorado 774 00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:48,479 Speaker 1: and then obviously if there is anything that you're gonna 775 00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:50,600 Speaker 1: play with this big of a line against Colorado State. 776 00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:55,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, the sheriffs are wrong about Colorado and and 777 00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:57,600 Speaker 2: and enough so that we've gotten a lot of value 778 00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:00,719 Speaker 2: on them so far. Uh the and I think the 779 00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:03,000 Speaker 2: books might have been anticipating a little bit of the 780 00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:06,040 Speaker 2: same when they dropped that line twenty one and a half, 781 00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:08,160 Speaker 2: you know, like, you know, going the other way, you 782 00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:09,719 Speaker 2: got a little bit of a dead zone. But they 783 00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:11,600 Speaker 2: were sort of wondering, you know, what side's going to 784 00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:15,000 Speaker 2: get hit? Not a surprise at all that it's Colorado 785 00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:16,799 Speaker 2: and this isn't the public you know, the people that 786 00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:19,160 Speaker 2: are betting it on Sunday afternoons right when it drops 787 00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:23,240 Speaker 2: Circa and the offshore books whatnot. Those are the sharks 788 00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:26,239 Speaker 2: in the water this time. What you've gotten a sense 789 00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:29,920 Speaker 2: of the last couple hours is they're starting to get 790 00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:32,040 Speaker 2: woken up a little bit to what's actually going on, 791 00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:34,520 Speaker 2: not what they saw in their spreadsheets or what they 792 00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:37,680 Speaker 2: wanted to believe. Whatever it's, the truth is starting to 793 00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:39,759 Speaker 2: get through to them. My line in this game is 794 00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:43,800 Speaker 2: Colorado minus twenty six point six. Even at where'd you 795 00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:45,719 Speaker 2: say it's at twenty twenty three and a half, I'm 796 00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:48,879 Speaker 2: seeing it. It's not far enough. And this thing by 797 00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:52,360 Speaker 2: kickoff is going to be twenty eight. They you know, again, 798 00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:55,160 Speaker 2: they drafted to not nearly as much the last two weeks. 799 00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:57,520 Speaker 2: They're starting to get around, get around, get around, But 800 00:37:57,600 --> 00:38:00,440 Speaker 2: this line's going to keep climbing. Is it a potential 801 00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:05,160 Speaker 2: letdown spot? I don't know. You know, like they had 802 00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:08,279 Speaker 2: ten guys in their roster last year. Those guys presumably 803 00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:11,480 Speaker 2: are pretty tickled that now they've already doubled their win 804 00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:14,080 Speaker 2: total from last year. I don't think their effort is 805 00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:16,919 Speaker 2: going to be a letdown. And the new players there, 806 00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:20,480 Speaker 2: they seem to pretty well rally around the idea of 807 00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:23,440 Speaker 2: us against the world and the Sharps and then some 808 00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:26,480 Speaker 2: of the two school for school too cool for school 809 00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:29,000 Speaker 2: of media types. They gave them a lot of amo 810 00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:34,080 Speaker 2: there Colorado and you know, again, my system, it's just 811 00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:38,759 Speaker 2: a quantifiable deal. They dropped that thing too low. That 812 00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:40,840 Speaker 2: line needs to be In my opinion, it should have 813 00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:42,880 Speaker 2: dropped a twenty seven, and I think it's going to 814 00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:45,080 Speaker 2: be twenty eight by kick. But if the Bucks want 815 00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:46,920 Speaker 2: to keep dropping it too low, the people that are 816 00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:49,520 Speaker 2: betting on Sunday can chomp into some big time value there. 817 00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:51,680 Speaker 1: And you're going to just bet it under twenty seven. 818 00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:54,120 Speaker 1: You're comfortable whatever under twenty seven? 819 00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:58,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, well yeah, I mean I would bet it 820 00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:01,400 Speaker 2: to twenty six like whatever. 821 00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:02,759 Speaker 1: Like twenty three and a half a lot. By the way, 822 00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:04,680 Speaker 1: I think that's when I'm gonna when we're done with 823 00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:07,040 Speaker 1: the show, I'm gonna play some pocket. 824 00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:08,520 Speaker 2: Okay, good Forton. 825 00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:10,080 Speaker 1: I alwously want to ask you about the game, but 826 00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:13,320 Speaker 1: I'm also curious about any of the player uh prop market. 827 00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:16,120 Speaker 1: I personally, one of my favorite players in college has 828 00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:18,719 Speaker 1: become Jimmy Horn Junior. I love I love Horn. I 829 00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:21,040 Speaker 1: think he's insane. I love watching him and he's not 830 00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:23,920 Speaker 1: even the most exciting of everyone talking about Hunter Weaver 831 00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:27,280 Speaker 1: really popped this past week, But I love Horn Cedar 832 00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:30,160 Speaker 1: Sanders as a monster. What are you looking for? Just 833 00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:33,920 Speaker 1: real quick as far as any prop value, once they 834 00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:36,200 Speaker 1: start to go. Is there a certain player too you're 835 00:39:36,239 --> 00:39:37,640 Speaker 1: going to look for and what that number might be? 836 00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:42,320 Speaker 3: Well, yeah, definitely Shadur is been. I mean, he obviously 837 00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:46,799 Speaker 3: is two emphatic overs because he started out at two 838 00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:49,479 Speaker 3: ninety seven and a half last week, even after going 839 00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:52,960 Speaker 3: nuclear in week one, pretty much because of the pace 840 00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:56,480 Speaker 3: that Nebraska played in against Minnesota. That was a bowling 841 00:39:56,520 --> 00:39:59,520 Speaker 3: shoe ugly game, no offense store. I know you were there, 842 00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:02,359 Speaker 3: you know, and it was exciting. You got your win 843 00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:05,680 Speaker 3: and everything, but to if you're a non Gopher and 844 00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:08,080 Speaker 3: you're watching that game like that was tough to watch. 845 00:40:09,200 --> 00:40:12,200 Speaker 3: With Shadoor, he was still only open to two seven 846 00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:14,200 Speaker 3: ninety seven and a half. I went out and put 847 00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:16,719 Speaker 3: out a column and said, this is a disgrace. He 848 00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:19,359 Speaker 3: went up to three point fifteen and then he had 849 00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:22,680 Speaker 3: actually widowed it back down after he spiked immediately, you know, 850 00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:25,400 Speaker 3: three fifteen. He actually ended up closing at three oh seven. 851 00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:30,520 Speaker 3: So it wasn't just in the totals and sides market, 852 00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:32,320 Speaker 3: it was everything. It was in the player. Props to 853 00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:36,239 Speaker 3: Xavier Weaver with sixty six and a half. That was 854 00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:39,480 Speaker 3: a little too low, you know. Obviously, same thing with 855 00:40:39,560 --> 00:40:41,200 Speaker 3: Hunter of sixty three and a half. He ended up 856 00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:45,600 Speaker 3: clearing that, and it's just impossible to fade this passing attack. 857 00:40:45,680 --> 00:40:48,799 Speaker 3: So I'm curious to see what they will have it 858 00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:52,160 Speaker 3: at this week because they're playing in Colorado State, who 859 00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:54,359 Speaker 3: I don't know, if you know, as I'm sure most 860 00:40:54,360 --> 00:40:57,040 Speaker 3: people were aware of. They played Washington State last week, 861 00:40:57,160 --> 00:41:00,279 Speaker 3: who put up four to sixty six passing yards on 862 00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:03,600 Speaker 3: Colorado State. There will be no shortage of passing yards 863 00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:07,200 Speaker 3: for Colorado here. I'm not worried about that in the slightest, 864 00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:10,279 Speaker 3: So I would say keeping keep a keen eye on 865 00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:12,840 Speaker 3: the opening for that passing attack and be ready to 866 00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:13,439 Speaker 3: take that over. 867 00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:15,960 Speaker 1: On what about anything in the game as well? Just 868 00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:18,080 Speaker 1: your thoughts? Are you are you like thor you slamming 869 00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:20,160 Speaker 1: this under twenty six? Do you like that twenty three 870 00:41:20,200 --> 00:41:22,759 Speaker 1: and a half line? Is it? Is it too low? 871 00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:24,080 Speaker 1: Three and a half? 872 00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:28,360 Speaker 3: I want over, you know, certainly the one little caveat 873 00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:30,400 Speaker 3: I have, I wouldn't take it over. If it gets 874 00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:32,719 Speaker 3: to pass twenty eight and a half, I'd lay off. 875 00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:35,520 Speaker 3: Reason why is because Colorado State can throw you know, 876 00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:38,880 Speaker 3: it's a j norvel year two. Clay Millen is a 877 00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:42,040 Speaker 3: kid who's there he brought in it's his recruit. You 878 00:41:42,120 --> 00:41:45,880 Speaker 3: got Tory Horton there. I think Justice Ross Simmons a 879 00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:49,680 Speaker 3: pretty good receiver. Obviously, it didn't go well with Nebraska 880 00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:53,759 Speaker 3: because they Jeff Simms can't throw a forward pass, so 881 00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:56,560 Speaker 3: they didn't have anything to go to once they got 882 00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:58,920 Speaker 3: down to Colorado, and then once he did start throwing, 883 00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:02,359 Speaker 3: it was game over. At least Colorado State can can 884 00:42:02,440 --> 00:42:05,160 Speaker 3: throw the ball, you know, and can move the ball 885 00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:08,840 Speaker 3: through the air, because it's just something. At least I 886 00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:10,680 Speaker 3: think they could hang around that twenty and a half. 887 00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:12,400 Speaker 3: Twenty three and a half is just a straight go 888 00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:14,760 Speaker 3: if that's where it is as soon as this prints. 889 00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:18,560 Speaker 1: So yeah, well you're looking for your Colorado bets. You 890 00:42:18,680 --> 00:42:21,640 Speaker 1: got them. You guys got your Colorado bets there. This 891 00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:24,400 Speaker 1: final segment, this is dedicated to both of you guys 892 00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:29,880 Speaker 1: for small like Smaller Game Talk slash Potential line changes. 893 00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,680 Speaker 1: These are games that you guys have identified as potential 894 00:42:32,719 --> 00:42:35,320 Speaker 1: line changes that you might want to get in on. Forroton, 895 00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:38,400 Speaker 1: we will start with your two. You've got Northwestern versus 896 00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:42,839 Speaker 1: Duke and BYU versus Arkansas. Give us the you know, 897 00:42:42,880 --> 00:42:45,480 Speaker 1: not the ten cent tour. But the quick synopsis on 898 00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:48,480 Speaker 1: why these two jumped out as potential line changers for you. 899 00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:52,719 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm sure everybody's been following Northwestern fairly closely. It's basically, 900 00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:56,160 Speaker 3: you know, the Mel Tucker situation happened three months beforehand 901 00:42:56,160 --> 00:42:59,399 Speaker 3: with Pat Fitzgerald where you got fired and now they're 902 00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:02,680 Speaker 3: kind of rambling with the first year head coach, you know, 903 00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:06,840 Speaker 3: defensive coordinator taken over there. Nebraska is one in thirteen 904 00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:11,080 Speaker 3: against the spread when allowing twenty two points or more 905 00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:15,000 Speaker 3: since the twenty twenty one season. That is a horror show. 906 00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:19,480 Speaker 3: And with this Duke team, obviously Mike Elko the head coach, 907 00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:22,120 Speaker 3: it's done just an incredible job. Went out there and 908 00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:27,319 Speaker 3: emasculated Clemson in Week one, took care of business. Now 909 00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:30,399 Speaker 3: he's coming out there against the Northwestern team who got 910 00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:34,640 Speaker 3: completely run over by Rutgers. They couldn't do anything against Rutgers. 911 00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:40,120 Speaker 3: That defensive line absolutely overran you know, Northwestern and everything 912 00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:42,879 Speaker 3: they tried to do. Now they're going up against Duke again, 913 00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:46,239 Speaker 3: another incredible defensive head coach and Mike elco I just 914 00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:49,640 Speaker 3: don't see it happening. Game opened up at eighteen, it's 915 00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:52,160 Speaker 3: now at minus twenty. It was a fifty and a 916 00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:54,480 Speaker 3: half on the total, now forty six and a half. 917 00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:57,720 Speaker 3: I like that under I don't think Northwestern can score. 918 00:43:58,200 --> 00:44:00,719 Speaker 3: Give me that under forty six and a half. It 919 00:44:00,840 --> 00:44:04,760 Speaker 3: is going to continue to plummet. BYU at Arkansas opened 920 00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:08,239 Speaker 3: at minus eight, you know with Arkansas air Now it's 921 00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:11,680 Speaker 3: minus two. Mine, excuse me, minus ten. It was fifty 922 00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:14,719 Speaker 3: five on a total, now is fifty two. Let's say 923 00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:19,960 Speaker 3: it's pretty pretty clear here at Arkansas BYU Keaton Slovis, 924 00:44:20,120 --> 00:44:24,920 Speaker 3: I can't believe he still has a starting job running wise, 925 00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:29,359 Speaker 3: running the ball just simply not what it was last year. 926 00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:32,960 Speaker 3: You know, Tyler Algier is not in that backfield anymore. 927 00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:35,720 Speaker 3: It showed Aiden Robbins is not up to the task, 928 00:44:35,800 --> 00:44:40,000 Speaker 3: you know, transfer from n l V. I mean Arkansas 929 00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:42,799 Speaker 3: ten and two against the spread when allowing less than 930 00:44:42,800 --> 00:44:46,400 Speaker 3: three sacks. I can't see BYU really put in a 931 00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:49,360 Speaker 3: pressure on kJ Jefferson. If you're not going to stress 932 00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:51,960 Speaker 3: him ten points, you know it's moved up. I think 933 00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:55,000 Speaker 3: it continues to go up. This is a bad BYU 934 00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:57,000 Speaker 3: team in the full rebuild. 935 00:44:57,320 --> 00:45:01,080 Speaker 1: Give me the Erazorbacks, all right, We've got Thor's potential 936 00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:06,960 Speaker 1: line changing games. You've targeted three games, uh, Ohio versus 937 00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:08,919 Speaker 1: Iowa State. Try to say that. I mean my brain 938 00:45:08,960 --> 00:45:13,359 Speaker 1: completely shut down. Ohio versus Iowa State, Rutgers versus Virginia Tech, 939 00:45:13,400 --> 00:45:17,440 Speaker 1: and Purdue versus Syracuse. Those are your three potential line 940 00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:20,560 Speaker 1: changing targets. So give us a synopsis and where you're 941 00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:21,480 Speaker 1: going with all three of those. 942 00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:25,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, my line on the Iowa State Ohio game is 943 00:45:25,280 --> 00:45:28,880 Speaker 2: is Iowa State minus eight point eight and it's it's 944 00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:31,480 Speaker 2: under a field goal right now, so we we definitely 945 00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:33,440 Speaker 2: bet that one. I get what people are out on 946 00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:36,600 Speaker 2: the cyclones after the gambling stuff and all that sort 947 00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:39,399 Speaker 2: of stuff. And you know, last week the offense once 948 00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:42,680 Speaker 2: again looked a bit lethargic against Iowa, but it's it's Iowa. 949 00:45:42,800 --> 00:45:45,600 Speaker 2: You know. I was a decent team this year. Ohio 950 00:45:46,719 --> 00:45:50,160 Speaker 2: they're a one man show with mister Rourke, you know, 951 00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:54,200 Speaker 2: And and Rourke is he's one play away from being 952 00:45:54,239 --> 00:45:57,799 Speaker 2: out of any given game. Even with Rourke, this line 953 00:45:57,840 --> 00:45:59,920 Speaker 2: is too low. It needs to be over a field goal. 954 00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:03,880 Speaker 2: And if Rourke gets injured in this game or like whatever, 955 00:46:04,480 --> 00:46:07,319 Speaker 2: this one could get ugly really quick for Ohio. But 956 00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:09,560 Speaker 2: like I said, it's not depending on that. I just 957 00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:13,279 Speaker 2: the market seems like this Ohio team a little bit 958 00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:17,560 Speaker 2: more than objective reality, so that that line should move 959 00:46:18,239 --> 00:46:20,120 Speaker 2: the other way. I would get it beneath the field goal. 960 00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:26,839 Speaker 2: You gotta Rutgers and Virginia at Tech, right, Uh? Yeah, 961 00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:30,120 Speaker 2: I yes, Rutgers Virginia line on that one's Rutgers minus 962 00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:34,040 Speaker 2: six point three open at four. The line I got 963 00:46:34,080 --> 00:46:35,719 Speaker 2: it at was four and a half. You'd have to 964 00:46:35,760 --> 00:46:37,319 Speaker 2: shop around, but that was the best line I could 965 00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:39,839 Speaker 2: find on my thing. It's already coming up, and that 966 00:46:39,880 --> 00:46:43,399 Speaker 2: thing will be at least six by kick. I think 967 00:46:43,440 --> 00:46:45,840 Speaker 2: the line on that one probably should be more like seven. 968 00:46:46,680 --> 00:46:50,040 Speaker 2: Rutgers has looked very good in in in the first 969 00:46:50,040 --> 00:46:52,719 Speaker 2: couple game now, not playing great opponents for sure, but 970 00:46:52,840 --> 00:46:57,080 Speaker 2: like you know that they're better, like by a decent 971 00:46:57,120 --> 00:46:59,719 Speaker 2: bit than they were last season. I mean, first game, 972 00:46:59,760 --> 00:47:04,520 Speaker 2: they absolutely smoke Northwestern. Northwestern turns around and smokes Utah, 973 00:47:04,920 --> 00:47:06,480 Speaker 2: a team that a lot of people thought they were 974 00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:09,319 Speaker 2: gonna lose the market certainly dead UTEP was favored on 975 00:47:09,360 --> 00:47:13,040 Speaker 2: the road in Northwestern in that spot. So really like 976 00:47:13,120 --> 00:47:16,719 Speaker 2: Rutgers Virginia Tech, I don't like I didn't like that 977 00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:19,560 Speaker 2: team heading into the season. Nothing that has happened has 978 00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:22,000 Speaker 2: gotten me to change that opinion. This past week, they 979 00:47:22,040 --> 00:47:24,600 Speaker 2: lose on their home field to a Purdue team that 980 00:47:24,680 --> 00:47:27,880 Speaker 2: the week before had lost to Fresno State and then 981 00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:30,960 Speaker 2: Fresno State this week barely gets by an FCS team. 982 00:47:31,280 --> 00:47:33,799 Speaker 2: So I mean, like, I don't like the Virginia Tech team. 983 00:47:33,880 --> 00:47:35,759 Speaker 2: That game is in Rutgers. I think that line needs 984 00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:38,360 Speaker 2: to be higher. You got to remind me the third one. 985 00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:41,760 Speaker 1: And the last one up here gets today it's purduing Syracuse, 986 00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:43,279 Speaker 1: preduing Syracuse. 987 00:47:43,080 --> 00:47:46,080 Speaker 2: Purduing Syracuse sort of going is just talking about Purdue, 988 00:47:46,400 --> 00:47:52,160 Speaker 2: sort of going the other way because Purdue wins in Blacksburg, which, yeah, 989 00:47:52,200 --> 00:47:54,480 Speaker 2: like eight years ago that would have been cool, but 990 00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:57,440 Speaker 2: it's it's not the same thing anymore. Virginia Tech stinks, 991 00:47:57,640 --> 00:47:59,880 Speaker 2: but now it's like the market is giving produce some 992 00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:02,680 Speaker 2: sort of credit for that. Where that line open, it 993 00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:04,720 Speaker 2: was like a pick up, and I was like looking 994 00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:08,080 Speaker 2: at it, like, are you kidding? Syracuse has looked pretty 995 00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:11,840 Speaker 2: good so far. There's been really good actually, like and 996 00:48:11,840 --> 00:48:13,960 Speaker 2: and and to put it that low, you're saying, these 997 00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:17,040 Speaker 2: teams are you know, right there with each other. They're 998 00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:20,040 Speaker 2: that's just not true. My line on that game is 999 00:48:20,080 --> 00:48:23,799 Speaker 2: Syracuse minus six point six. I will mention there are 1000 00:48:23,960 --> 00:48:27,480 Speaker 2: two injuries to monitor on the Syracuse side. The big 1001 00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:31,759 Speaker 2: one Rande Gadson. There they list him as a tight end. 1002 00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:33,279 Speaker 2: He's a big slot is what he is. But they 1003 00:48:33,560 --> 00:48:35,440 Speaker 2: give him the ball a lot. It's very good He's 1004 00:48:35,440 --> 00:48:37,520 Speaker 2: gonna get drafted in the NFL. He's a very good player. 1005 00:48:37,920 --> 00:48:40,040 Speaker 2: Uh he might. I mean he got injured last game. 1006 00:48:40,080 --> 00:48:42,759 Speaker 2: Well out to see about him. And then Wollabau, one 1007 00:48:42,800 --> 00:48:45,879 Speaker 2: of their other offensive starters, is also you know, sort 1008 00:48:45,920 --> 00:48:47,560 Speaker 2: of iffy right now. You'd have to look into that. 1009 00:48:48,120 --> 00:48:50,520 Speaker 2: But even if they're out, both those guys, I mean, 1010 00:48:50,560 --> 00:48:53,080 Speaker 2: you know, talking about it, you know right now it's 1011 00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:55,680 Speaker 2: you know, Syracuse minus one or one and a half whatever, 1012 00:48:55,760 --> 00:48:58,239 Speaker 2: my line being six point six, those two guys are 1013 00:48:58,239 --> 00:49:00,640 Speaker 2: now worth five points combined on the line. They're just 1014 00:49:00,680 --> 00:49:03,160 Speaker 2: not so we I mean, anything beneath the field goals. 1015 00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:06,560 Speaker 2: Certainly you have value on Syracuse here, so going with them. 1016 00:49:06,719 --> 00:49:08,920 Speaker 2: And then a couple of Welsh I didn't mention to you, 1017 00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:11,839 Speaker 2: but before the show, I just keep banging the bets here. 1018 00:49:12,280 --> 00:49:14,719 Speaker 2: One I would I would tell people to get in 1019 00:49:14,840 --> 00:49:18,160 Speaker 2: on early at total is the under in Southern Miss 1020 00:49:18,200 --> 00:49:21,240 Speaker 2: TWU lane, and you might want to consider betting Southern 1021 00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:23,759 Speaker 2: Miss early in the week too. I don't know how 1022 00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:26,279 Speaker 2: much of this is out there. I should actually check 1023 00:49:26,960 --> 00:49:32,680 Speaker 2: the Michael Pratt injury news. I think publicly it just 1024 00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:37,040 Speaker 2: is like, oh, he's out for the Ole Miss game Forton. 1025 00:49:37,080 --> 00:49:40,120 Speaker 2: Does that come out publicly the longer yet or just 1026 00:49:40,239 --> 00:49:42,479 Speaker 2: the are they are they saying he's weak to week? 1027 00:49:43,920 --> 00:49:46,360 Speaker 2: I think it's a week to week situation. Yeah, I 1028 00:49:46,600 --> 00:49:50,239 Speaker 2: not know for sure. I haven't at least I'm talking 1029 00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:53,560 Speaker 2: about just the reported. The point I'm trying to make 1030 00:49:53,600 --> 00:49:55,600 Speaker 2: on this one is Michael Pratt's going to be out 1031 00:49:55,800 --> 00:49:58,440 Speaker 2: for a little bet. Michael Pratt's not playing this weekend. 1032 00:49:59,239 --> 00:50:03,160 Speaker 2: I don't think is out there publicly. I would if 1033 00:50:03,160 --> 00:50:04,959 Speaker 2: you if you want to get in on this one, 1034 00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:07,759 Speaker 2: Southern Mess would be the side and the under is 1035 00:50:07,800 --> 00:50:11,200 Speaker 2: where there is more value. I was showing, So hold on, 1036 00:50:11,320 --> 00:50:13,960 Speaker 2: let me pull this up my system and this is 1037 00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:16,800 Speaker 2: in a vacuum where it would be like Michael Pratt 1038 00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:19,600 Speaker 2: is playing. My system had this at forty eight point 1039 00:50:19,680 --> 00:50:22,080 Speaker 2: seven as the total right now, it's fifty two point 1040 00:50:22,160 --> 00:50:26,160 Speaker 2: five without Michael Pratt. You wonder how many points should 1041 00:50:26,200 --> 00:50:28,399 Speaker 2: you drop the over under in a game like that. 1042 00:50:29,280 --> 00:50:32,080 Speaker 2: There's five or six points, right, especially at Southern Miss. 1043 00:50:32,120 --> 00:50:35,239 Speaker 3: They're not a rapid team, Like, no, they're not a. 1044 00:50:35,239 --> 00:50:39,000 Speaker 2: Rapid Teamah yeah, yeah, team that plays pretty salty defense, 1045 00:50:39,360 --> 00:50:41,239 Speaker 2: and they want to run the ball, run the well. 1046 00:50:41,280 --> 00:50:43,160 Speaker 2: What they want to do is funnel every single touch 1047 00:50:43,160 --> 00:50:45,920 Speaker 2: the can to Frank cor Junior. And you know, and 1048 00:50:46,040 --> 00:50:47,799 Speaker 2: they have one other decent back too, but like that's 1049 00:50:47,800 --> 00:50:50,880 Speaker 2: what they want to do. They've had quarterback issues for years. 1050 00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:53,760 Speaker 2: I mean, like this year they're going with the Billy Wiles, 1051 00:50:53,880 --> 00:50:55,400 Speaker 2: you know, like a kid who is like on a 1052 00:50:55,440 --> 00:50:57,919 Speaker 2: milk carton that Clemson at the back of their their 1053 00:50:58,280 --> 00:51:01,640 Speaker 2: depth chair. Whatever. Any Way, wait, the under is the 1054 00:51:01,680 --> 00:51:04,640 Speaker 2: play here, and early in the week the play is 1055 00:51:04,719 --> 00:51:08,160 Speaker 2: Southern Mess because once that Pratt news comes out confirming 1056 00:51:08,160 --> 00:51:10,680 Speaker 2: he will not be playing this weekend, you're not gonna 1057 00:51:10,680 --> 00:51:12,279 Speaker 2: be able to get the double digit points. So you're 1058 00:51:12,280 --> 00:51:13,680 Speaker 2: getting right now with Southern Miss at home. 1059 00:51:14,520 --> 00:51:18,919 Speaker 1: Eric Froton on Twitter at c f Froton is about 1060 00:51:18,960 --> 00:51:21,640 Speaker 1: to put your name in there. Ce f Froton follow him. 1061 00:51:21,680 --> 00:51:23,560 Speaker 1: Make sure you can check out everything that he's got 1062 00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:27,560 Speaker 1: going on thour Ku for thorn Eystrim. Thor is going 1063 00:51:27,640 --> 00:51:30,560 Speaker 1: to be doing the actual line show with Scott Bogin 1064 00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:33,160 Speaker 1: and Mike Ferrell coming up. I believe on Wednesday. It 1065 00:51:33,239 --> 00:51:36,320 Speaker 1: drops over on Betting Pros. Then you've got the live stream, 1066 00:51:36,360 --> 00:51:38,960 Speaker 1: which has been a monster. By the way, if you're 1067 00:51:38,960 --> 00:51:42,319 Speaker 1: missing it, you are missing out that live stream. I 1068 00:51:42,360 --> 00:51:45,480 Speaker 1: believe ten AM Eastern is that correct on Betting Pros 1069 00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:49,200 Speaker 1: Betting Mornings. Yeah, yeah, Thor and Mic are killing that. 1070 00:51:49,280 --> 00:51:50,840 Speaker 1: So make sure you guys are locked into that. That 1071 00:51:51,000 --> 00:51:53,040 Speaker 1: is one of the highest stream things that we got 1072 00:51:53,080 --> 00:51:56,200 Speaker 1: going on over here, So get locked in, get all 1073 00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:58,759 Speaker 1: the latest, follow those guys on Twitter if you care, 1074 00:51:58,840 --> 00:52:00,759 Speaker 1: you can follow me on Twitter and make sure you 1075 00:52:00,800 --> 00:52:03,640 Speaker 1: go and check out the Betting Pros Pick Tracker. You 1076 00:52:03,640 --> 00:52:06,240 Speaker 1: can go download the app over on iOS or Android. 1077 00:52:06,480 --> 00:52:08,680 Speaker 1: You can go start following all your favorite betters. You 1078 00:52:08,680 --> 00:52:10,560 Speaker 1: can see exactly how they're betting, and you can get 1079 00:52:10,560 --> 00:52:15,000 Speaker 1: customized notifications to like ro Oi or just everything that 1080 00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:16,719 Speaker 1: they do. So make sure to go check that out and. 1081 00:52:16,880 --> 00:52:19,080 Speaker 2: Follow Welsh on that thing too. But Welsh, I was 1082 00:52:19,080 --> 00:52:22,760 Speaker 2: looking at I follow you. You know we we'veought Wels 1083 00:52:22,880 --> 00:52:24,839 Speaker 2: is a lifetime winner. Over there, I was looking through 1084 00:52:24,880 --> 00:52:26,760 Speaker 2: some of your Now, no, I don't take other people's 1085 00:52:26,760 --> 00:52:29,440 Speaker 2: stuff for college football, but I will absolutely take advice, 1086 00:52:29,680 --> 00:52:32,239 Speaker 2: like what do I know about baseball? Yeah? What do 1087 00:52:32,280 --> 00:52:34,160 Speaker 2: I know about I was looking through. I was like, man, 1088 00:52:34,160 --> 00:52:36,800 Speaker 2: I gotta I gotta turn on those noties for Welsh 1089 00:52:36,840 --> 00:52:37,280 Speaker 2: A couple. 1090 00:52:37,080 --> 00:52:40,880 Speaker 1: Of wait, what I'm waiting for? My my key not 1091 00:52:41,040 --> 00:52:43,920 Speaker 1: to do this, but in baseball is first five. I 1092 00:52:43,960 --> 00:52:45,680 Speaker 1: do a lot of first five in team totals and 1093 00:52:45,719 --> 00:52:48,520 Speaker 1: I can't track those yet. Once I get going there, 1094 00:52:48,640 --> 00:52:52,080 Speaker 1: percentages are going up. Baby. I also had a couple 1095 00:52:52,120 --> 00:52:53,680 Speaker 1: of those in the NFL this week, But thank you 1096 00:52:53,800 --> 00:52:56,640 Speaker 1: very much. Yeah, follow us over on the Betting Pros Tracker. 1097 00:52:56,680 --> 00:52:58,440 Speaker 1: It's a cool app. It's really fun. You can set 1098 00:52:58,480 --> 00:53:00,319 Speaker 1: up your own groups with your friends as well. I 1099 00:53:00,400 --> 00:53:02,680 Speaker 1: highly suggest it, and it's just a cool tool to 1100 00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:04,800 Speaker 1: get you locked in if you're looking for a little 1101 00:53:04,840 --> 00:53:07,319 Speaker 1: bit more action. Thank you guys for all hanging out 1102 00:53:07,320 --> 00:53:08,960 Speaker 1: with us, and we will talk to you later in 1103 00:53:09,000 --> 00:53:11,080 Speaker 1: this week and next week right here on the Betting 1104 00:53:11,080 --> 00:53:14,719 Speaker 1: Pros College Football Early Line look Ahead, show you guys, 1105 00:53:14,719 --> 00:53:16,319 Speaker 1: have a great one talking next time.