1 00:00:11,697 --> 00:00:14,977 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast. Make sure 2 00:00:15,017 --> 00:00:17,977 Speaker 1: you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or 3 00:00:18,017 --> 00:00:19,737 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. 4 00:00:20,057 --> 00:00:22,577 Speaker 2: All right, let's do it around the world foreign policy. 5 00:00:22,657 --> 00:00:26,057 Speaker 2: Buck brief here with our friend Bridge Colby. He's a 6 00:00:26,097 --> 00:00:29,897 Speaker 2: former Pentagon official. He's got an awesome book on foreign policy, 7 00:00:29,937 --> 00:00:33,657 Speaker 2: Strategy of Denial. Check it out. Bridge. Great to have 8 00:00:33,697 --> 00:00:36,777 Speaker 2: you back on the program. Let's start with this for 9 00:00:36,817 --> 00:00:39,377 Speaker 2: a second, because you know, we're speaking at a time 10 00:00:39,377 --> 00:00:41,737 Speaker 2: when the world is still reeling from the terrorist attack 11 00:00:41,817 --> 00:00:46,057 Speaker 2: in Israel by Hamas. Iran's fingerprints are all over this. 12 00:00:46,137 --> 00:00:50,217 Speaker 2: We know that what does Iran think it can achieve 13 00:00:50,617 --> 00:00:54,097 Speaker 2: with the actions that it engages in. Is it just 14 00:00:54,337 --> 00:01:00,377 Speaker 2: ideologically driven sadism and hatred or is there a long 15 00:01:00,497 --> 00:01:03,537 Speaker 2: game here that they think they're playing by supporting these 16 00:01:04,057 --> 00:01:07,577 Speaker 2: militant groups that is in some way achievable as a 17 00:01:07,657 --> 00:01:08,257 Speaker 2: nation state. 18 00:01:10,097 --> 00:01:12,217 Speaker 3: Well, great to be back with you, Buck, Always a 19 00:01:12,217 --> 00:01:15,097 Speaker 3: pleasure to be with you, and even on this really 20 00:01:15,097 --> 00:01:18,777 Speaker 3: difficult day or time. Look, I think there is plenty 21 00:01:18,777 --> 00:01:21,977 Speaker 3: of rage in ideology in the Islamic Republic of the 22 00:01:22,057 --> 00:01:24,617 Speaker 3: regime there, but I also think they appear to be 23 00:01:24,737 --> 00:01:27,177 Speaker 3: pursuing a strategy, and I think that's my sense of 24 00:01:27,177 --> 00:01:30,697 Speaker 3: the Israeli assessment as well. It's based on you know, 25 00:01:30,737 --> 00:01:33,897 Speaker 3: the exploitation of terrorism and human suffering and so forth. 26 00:01:33,657 --> 00:01:36,617 Speaker 1: But it is it is a strategy. 27 00:01:36,737 --> 00:01:39,657 Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know exactly what they're going I mean, 28 00:01:39,697 --> 00:01:43,577 Speaker 3: it's too clear that Iran benefits from this to say 29 00:01:43,577 --> 00:01:46,377 Speaker 3: that they've had no role. Obviously they've been heavily complicit 30 00:01:46,417 --> 00:01:49,177 Speaker 3: in arming Hamas and Hesbala and so forth, but they 31 00:01:49,217 --> 00:01:53,297 Speaker 3: also benefit from interrupting the Israeli normalization with the Saudis 32 00:01:53,297 --> 00:01:57,177 Speaker 3: and others in the region and the quiet that I mean. 33 00:01:57,217 --> 00:01:59,977 Speaker 3: I was in Israel in June, and you know, there 34 00:02:00,017 --> 00:02:03,137 Speaker 3: was a sense that things were pretty much probably more 35 00:02:03,137 --> 00:02:05,057 Speaker 3: secure in Israel than they ever been, that the kind 36 00:02:05,057 --> 00:02:07,857 Speaker 3: of West Bank and Gaza were under control. And I 37 00:02:07,897 --> 00:02:10,737 Speaker 3: think what I assume Mas is trying to do, and 38 00:02:10,817 --> 00:02:16,977 Speaker 3: backed by Iran, is to reintroduce fear and uncertainty and 39 00:02:17,017 --> 00:02:20,897 Speaker 3: anxiety into an Israeli life. Obviously, they're taking hostages and 40 00:02:20,937 --> 00:02:24,857 Speaker 3: they're trying to probably establish more control over the Arab 41 00:02:24,857 --> 00:02:27,337 Speaker 3: population in both Gaza where they have been ascended, but 42 00:02:27,377 --> 00:02:30,457 Speaker 3: also in the West Bank and use that to just 43 00:02:30,617 --> 00:02:35,377 Speaker 3: over time erode life in the Jewish state and ultimately 44 00:02:35,417 --> 00:02:37,537 Speaker 3: try to you know, I think their ultimate goal is, 45 00:02:38,217 --> 00:02:40,617 Speaker 3: as they say, to recapture that territory. 46 00:02:41,097 --> 00:02:43,897 Speaker 2: Do you think that they just view this as an 47 00:02:43,897 --> 00:02:47,057 Speaker 2: incremental approach to the eventual eradication of Israel? I mean, 48 00:02:47,057 --> 00:02:50,657 Speaker 2: that really is their strategic goal. That's not just bluster 49 00:02:51,057 --> 00:02:53,337 Speaker 2: and chest stumping from a bunch of psychopaths. 50 00:02:54,777 --> 00:02:57,297 Speaker 1: I mean, I think they say it consistently. 51 00:02:57,537 --> 00:03:00,617 Speaker 3: And you know, the people who were prepared to conduct 52 00:03:00,657 --> 00:03:03,457 Speaker 3: acts of terrorism liners in the nineteen seventies, but were 53 00:03:03,457 --> 00:03:08,297 Speaker 3: more secular or maybe had more incremental objectives even then 54 00:03:08,337 --> 00:03:10,057 Speaker 3: they might have been more aggressive or ambitious. 55 00:03:10,577 --> 00:03:12,417 Speaker 1: I think those people seem to have been pushed aside. 56 00:03:12,577 --> 00:03:15,817 Speaker 3: And Hamas and Hezbola were the radical groups and the 57 00:03:15,857 --> 00:03:18,977 Speaker 3: Islamic revolutionaries in Iran, and you don't look, I mean, 58 00:03:19,017 --> 00:03:22,137 Speaker 3: obviously these analogies are always kind of limited, but how 59 00:03:22,137 --> 00:03:25,137 Speaker 3: long did the crusaders stay, or how long did very 60 00:03:25,177 --> 00:03:27,937 Speaker 3: in the British stay? You know, you look how long 61 00:03:28,777 --> 00:03:32,137 Speaker 3: colonial anti colonial rebellions that they're probably modeling themselves. 62 00:03:32,177 --> 00:03:33,697 Speaker 1: Not to suggest that as rules in any way a 63 00:03:33,697 --> 00:03:34,457 Speaker 1: colonial state. 64 00:03:34,337 --> 00:03:37,057 Speaker 3: But but I think that's probably the model they have. 65 00:03:37,097 --> 00:03:39,177 Speaker 3: And you know that, as Hochi Minh said, you know, 66 00:03:39,217 --> 00:03:41,377 Speaker 3: we have time and you can kill ten of ours 67 00:03:41,417 --> 00:03:41,817 Speaker 3: for everyone. 68 00:03:41,857 --> 00:03:43,417 Speaker 1: We kill a view, but in the long run will 69 00:03:43,497 --> 00:03:44,057 Speaker 1: outlast you. 70 00:03:45,417 --> 00:03:48,777 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I know they take this this very 71 00:03:49,737 --> 00:03:52,737 Speaker 2: long view at the expense of the present. That's a 72 00:03:52,777 --> 00:03:54,657 Speaker 2: common theme in a lot of Middle Eastern states and 73 00:03:54,737 --> 00:03:59,857 Speaker 2: unfortunately that you know, the some you know, some amazing 74 00:03:59,937 --> 00:04:02,817 Speaker 2: future will come about if they're willing to engage in 75 00:04:03,657 --> 00:04:07,657 Speaker 2: heinous acts today and justify a lot of tyranny, repression 76 00:04:07,697 --> 00:04:11,297 Speaker 2: and things that generally you would want to avoid. But 77 00:04:11,737 --> 00:04:15,377 Speaker 2: I'm just wondering at this stage, if is it possible 78 00:04:15,377 --> 00:04:18,537 Speaker 2: for Israel to allow a thing called Hamas to continue 79 00:04:18,537 --> 00:04:19,177 Speaker 2: to exist. 80 00:04:21,177 --> 00:04:23,577 Speaker 3: Well, I think they've said I think Prime Minister Natanielle 81 00:04:23,577 --> 00:04:26,017 Speaker 3: who did say that they are going to destroy him Hammad. 82 00:04:26,457 --> 00:04:29,417 Speaker 3: I mean, I think that that makes a ton of sense. 83 00:04:29,857 --> 00:04:30,537 Speaker 1: And I mean I. 84 00:04:30,577 --> 00:04:35,017 Speaker 3: Totally support Israel's uh, you know, basis and desire to 85 00:04:35,177 --> 00:04:37,897 Speaker 3: retaliate and restore that to terrence. There's also an element, 86 00:04:37,937 --> 00:04:40,177 Speaker 3: of course of justice, but from a strategic point of view, 87 00:04:40,497 --> 00:04:42,257 Speaker 3: they have to be able to say that if you 88 00:04:42,337 --> 00:04:44,817 Speaker 3: do these I mean barbarica acts, some of which in 89 00:04:44,857 --> 00:04:46,777 Speaker 3: some sense are unprecedent sense the Holocaust. 90 00:04:46,857 --> 00:04:48,777 Speaker 1: I mean, really horrible. 91 00:04:48,377 --> 00:04:51,977 Speaker 3: Stuff that there will be punishment way out of proportion 92 00:04:52,737 --> 00:04:56,257 Speaker 3: to you know, the benefits for the attacking actor. The problem, 93 00:04:56,297 --> 00:04:58,177 Speaker 3: of course is what does it mean to destroy Hamas? 94 00:04:58,177 --> 00:05:00,457 Speaker 3: And I assume the Israelis are wrestling with that, so 95 00:05:00,537 --> 00:05:02,337 Speaker 3: I think they'll probably need to come up with a 96 00:05:02,377 --> 00:05:05,777 Speaker 3: definition of that that is, you know, significant enough that 97 00:05:05,817 --> 00:05:09,497 Speaker 3: it means something, but also attainable at a reasonable cost, 98 00:05:09,537 --> 00:05:11,497 Speaker 3: because you know, I'm I think they're mobilizing three hundred 99 00:05:11,497 --> 00:05:15,617 Speaker 3: thousand israelis huge impact on the Israeli economy, on Israeli society. 100 00:05:15,817 --> 00:05:19,017 Speaker 3: It is a free society, it's you know, it has 101 00:05:19,177 --> 00:05:21,337 Speaker 3: democratic politics, of course, much to its credit. 102 00:05:21,697 --> 00:05:23,417 Speaker 1: So I think that's going to be a big part 103 00:05:23,417 --> 00:05:24,017 Speaker 1: of the challenge. 104 00:05:24,017 --> 00:05:27,137 Speaker 3: And unfortunately, this is I assume part of what Hamas 105 00:05:27,217 --> 00:05:29,937 Speaker 3: and presumably Iran and Hesbel and the background are trying 106 00:05:29,977 --> 00:05:30,497 Speaker 3: to exploit. 107 00:05:32,377 --> 00:05:34,937 Speaker 2: We'll come into a discussion of Ukraine here in a second. 108 00:05:35,377 --> 00:05:38,497 Speaker 2: And there's actually some people that are already pointing out 109 00:05:38,497 --> 00:05:42,097 Speaker 2: how some of the munition's shortages that we may need 110 00:05:42,137 --> 00:05:46,137 Speaker 2: to help out with. 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So Ukraine Russia bridge 134 00:06:47,537 --> 00:06:51,977 Speaker 2: the so far, the analysis this year is a lot 135 00:06:52,017 --> 00:06:55,417 Speaker 2: of fighting and basically no territorial movement, as in the 136 00:06:55,457 --> 00:06:57,777 Speaker 2: whole breakthrough that we were told was going to happen 137 00:06:58,977 --> 00:07:02,177 Speaker 2: was there was no breakthrough. It looks to be a 138 00:07:02,217 --> 00:07:04,537 Speaker 2: straight up stalemate, and we're funding this as well as 139 00:07:04,577 --> 00:07:08,617 Speaker 2: providing a lot of munitions. What's your take on where 140 00:07:08,657 --> 00:07:11,497 Speaker 2: the Ukraine situation is going and how it's affecting US 141 00:07:11,577 --> 00:07:13,777 Speaker 2: foreign policy priorities in general right now? 142 00:07:15,137 --> 00:07:16,577 Speaker 3: Well, look, I think you're right. I mean I think 143 00:07:16,577 --> 00:07:18,537 Speaker 3: it's an attritional conflict. I think the New York Times 144 00:07:18,577 --> 00:07:21,977 Speaker 3: itself reported that very little territory has changed hands this year, 145 00:07:21,977 --> 00:07:25,777 Speaker 3: and in fact, Russia has seized more territory than Ukraine. So, 146 00:07:26,777 --> 00:07:29,817 Speaker 3: you know, the Ukrainian counter offensive there may still be 147 00:07:29,857 --> 00:07:31,697 Speaker 3: stamina left in it, but I don't think it's going 148 00:07:31,737 --> 00:07:33,457 Speaker 3: to radically up end the war. I think what we're 149 00:07:33,457 --> 00:07:36,857 Speaker 3: seeing as a war of attrition, and it's encouraging that 150 00:07:36,897 --> 00:07:38,857 Speaker 3: we and the Europeans have made some moves to tate 151 00:07:38,897 --> 00:07:41,337 Speaker 3: our defense industrial base. But the thing to bear in 152 00:07:41,377 --> 00:07:43,257 Speaker 3: mind is that's all relative buck And this is a 153 00:07:43,257 --> 00:07:44,857 Speaker 3: really important point that a lot of the kind of 154 00:07:44,857 --> 00:07:48,137 Speaker 3: more traditional, if you will, neo conservative voices in the 155 00:07:48,177 --> 00:07:51,417 Speaker 3: Republican Party underestimate is that that's The Russians are also 156 00:07:52,817 --> 00:07:55,417 Speaker 3: mobilizing for a long war, and the Wall Street Journal 157 00:07:55,497 --> 00:07:58,337 Speaker 3: is reporting on Saturday that they're retooling their entire economy 158 00:07:58,377 --> 00:08:00,537 Speaker 3: for war economy. So you know, they're going to buy 159 00:08:00,577 --> 00:08:03,417 Speaker 3: fewer Mercedes and sobs or whatever, and they're going to 160 00:08:03,617 --> 00:08:05,817 Speaker 3: eat it. Frankly, they're going to their lives are not 161 00:08:05,817 --> 00:08:07,737 Speaker 3: going to be as sort of luxurious as they might 162 00:08:07,737 --> 00:08:11,017 Speaker 3: have been in places like Saint Petersburg in Moscow probably, 163 00:08:11,337 --> 00:08:13,857 Speaker 3: but they're going to allocate more of their money and 164 00:08:13,937 --> 00:08:17,257 Speaker 3: resources as a nation to the military, and we'll see 165 00:08:17,257 --> 00:08:19,737 Speaker 3: how that nets out relatively. But I think, you know, 166 00:08:19,977 --> 00:08:23,657 Speaker 3: a long war is a very difficult conflict for US. 167 00:08:24,177 --> 00:08:26,977 Speaker 3: I think this is unfortunately what the Kremlin is anticipating. 168 00:08:27,017 --> 00:08:28,577 Speaker 1: They're also getting help from the North Koreans. 169 00:08:28,577 --> 00:08:30,897 Speaker 3: People laugh about the North Koreans, but one thing they're 170 00:08:31,137 --> 00:08:33,897 Speaker 3: good at is building missiles and rockets and artillery shells. 171 00:08:33,897 --> 00:08:37,337 Speaker 3: They have like a million people working in artillery factories 172 00:08:37,377 --> 00:08:40,697 Speaker 3: and ammunition factories. We can't even produce on hundred fifty 173 00:08:40,737 --> 00:08:43,217 Speaker 3: five millimeters munitions at that. We are in producing more 174 00:08:43,257 --> 00:08:45,817 Speaker 3: of it, but which the Israelis also need, but at 175 00:08:45,817 --> 00:08:48,857 Speaker 3: the level, not the level of the Ukrainians actually want 176 00:08:48,857 --> 00:08:49,937 Speaker 3: to be able to expend it at. 177 00:08:50,137 --> 00:08:51,577 Speaker 1: So this is the real problem. 178 00:08:51,617 --> 00:08:53,777 Speaker 3: What we should be doing is getting the Europeans to 179 00:08:53,977 --> 00:08:56,457 Speaker 3: really step up, which they're particularly the Germans, are not doing. 180 00:08:56,977 --> 00:08:58,857 Speaker 3: I think the fact that there's a war breaking out 181 00:08:59,017 --> 00:09:01,137 Speaker 3: with our very close ally Israel, and I mean their 182 00:09:01,177 --> 00:09:04,897 Speaker 3: actual sovereign territory is being is being invaded and so forth, 183 00:09:04,977 --> 00:09:07,657 Speaker 3: this just shows us that we can't keep bluffing through. 184 00:09:07,657 --> 00:09:09,697 Speaker 3: I see a lot of the voices, you know of 185 00:09:09,697 --> 00:09:12,137 Speaker 3: this sort of George W. Bush approach saying, hey, we 186 00:09:12,217 --> 00:09:14,377 Speaker 3: got to be active everywhere, and they're completely sort of 187 00:09:14,377 --> 00:09:16,697 Speaker 3: blithely ignoring the fact that we're not in a position 188 00:09:16,777 --> 00:09:19,177 Speaker 3: we should have been. We should have spent some of 189 00:09:19,177 --> 00:09:22,457 Speaker 3: that COVID money that we blew on resuscitating our defense 190 00:09:22,497 --> 00:09:25,017 Speaker 3: industrial base, on being able to bring good jobs back 191 00:09:25,017 --> 00:09:28,857 Speaker 3: to the United States that could skilled welders fix submarines, 192 00:09:29,017 --> 00:09:32,137 Speaker 3: build munitions, But we didn't do that, and we barely 193 00:09:32,377 --> 00:09:34,897 Speaker 3: we have barely touched the problem in the last year. 194 00:09:34,897 --> 00:09:37,337 Speaker 3: I mean, I've been calling for a national mobilization for 195 00:09:37,457 --> 00:09:39,857 Speaker 3: the last year because we've been digging ourselves this hole. 196 00:09:40,297 --> 00:09:41,937 Speaker 3: But that's not where we are in the president I 197 00:09:41,977 --> 00:09:44,817 Speaker 3: just saw him. He was talking, you know, in the 198 00:09:44,857 --> 00:09:47,057 Speaker 3: White House, and he was very moralistic and on his 199 00:09:47,137 --> 00:09:47,857 Speaker 3: high horse, and I. 200 00:09:47,777 --> 00:09:49,617 Speaker 1: Was like, what were you yelling at? 201 00:09:49,737 --> 00:09:52,297 Speaker 3: Man, Like, you're the one who could have said, let's 202 00:09:52,337 --> 00:09:54,817 Speaker 3: actually get a defense industrial base that, by the way, 203 00:09:54,857 --> 00:09:56,577 Speaker 3: would meet a lot of the kind of concerns that 204 00:09:56,817 --> 00:09:58,257 Speaker 3: you know, those of us on the new Right want, 205 00:09:58,257 --> 00:10:00,657 Speaker 3: which brings good industrial jobs back to this country. 206 00:10:00,937 --> 00:10:01,697 Speaker 1: But instead it's a. 207 00:10:01,697 --> 00:10:03,817 Speaker 3: Lot of the green stuff from the climate and all 208 00:10:03,857 --> 00:10:05,977 Speaker 3: this kind of stuff, and they don't want to do 209 00:10:06,057 --> 00:10:08,817 Speaker 3: more on the defense side. So I think we're in 210 00:10:08,897 --> 00:10:11,697 Speaker 3: really bad shape. And I actually I wrote a piece 211 00:10:11,737 --> 00:10:14,297 Speaker 3: the other day in The Spectator saying that we're in 212 00:10:14,337 --> 00:10:17,177 Speaker 3: really bad shape. And I actually underestimated the situation because 213 00:10:17,177 --> 00:10:20,017 Speaker 3: I didn't think about this possibility of Hamas and Israel, 214 00:10:20,297 --> 00:10:22,417 Speaker 3: but the Chinese that the threat has not dissipated in 215 00:10:22,417 --> 00:10:22,897 Speaker 3: the slightest. 216 00:10:22,937 --> 00:10:24,777 Speaker 1: It's probably intensifying kind of thing. 217 00:10:25,777 --> 00:10:28,337 Speaker 2: So where do you think all this goes? I mean, Bridge, 218 00:10:28,377 --> 00:10:33,937 Speaker 2: I was on radio when Russia invaded Ukraine initially, and 219 00:10:33,977 --> 00:10:36,257 Speaker 2: there was that moment when they were making that move 220 00:10:36,337 --> 00:10:38,577 Speaker 2: toward Kiev, and then everyone was saying, oh, they've turned 221 00:10:38,577 --> 00:10:41,617 Speaker 2: them around, and I just said, look, guys, this thing's 222 00:10:41,657 --> 00:10:43,097 Speaker 2: not going to end anytime soon, and it's going to 223 00:10:43,177 --> 00:10:44,817 Speaker 2: end up costing the US when all of a sudden done, 224 00:10:44,817 --> 00:10:47,097 Speaker 2: We're gonna spend a trillion dollars on this war, which 225 00:10:47,137 --> 00:10:49,857 Speaker 2: sounded people were just like, come on, that's insane. And 226 00:10:49,897 --> 00:10:51,977 Speaker 2: now I'm sort of well, it's like two hundred billion 227 00:10:52,057 --> 00:10:54,457 Speaker 2: in counting right now. Where do you think it's going? 228 00:10:56,577 --> 00:10:58,777 Speaker 3: I mean, I think you're you're you're certainly more right 229 00:10:58,857 --> 00:11:00,617 Speaker 3: than those who were dismissing it and hoping the war 230 00:11:00,657 --> 00:11:03,377 Speaker 3: would just end quickly and decisively. I mean, I don't 231 00:11:03,377 --> 00:11:05,897 Speaker 3: think Russia's going anywhere as a great power, and who 232 00:11:05,937 --> 00:11:08,497 Speaker 3: you know, they care a lot about Ukraine. Unfortunately, their 233 00:11:09,097 --> 00:11:11,817 Speaker 3: desire their life, Putin's lust to take over Ukraine or 234 00:11:11,897 --> 00:11:15,297 Speaker 3: establish a dominant position is not just. But unfortunately it's enduring, 235 00:11:15,377 --> 00:11:17,777 Speaker 3: just like North Korea's is via South Korea. 236 00:11:17,897 --> 00:11:18,777 Speaker 1: I mean, I was struck. 237 00:11:19,577 --> 00:11:21,817 Speaker 3: The administration has been pointing out that we've given one 238 00:11:21,897 --> 00:11:24,257 Speaker 3: hundred and fifty billion dollars to the Israelis or an 239 00:11:24,257 --> 00:11:26,737 Speaker 3: AID over the last time of fifty fifty plus years. 240 00:11:26,737 --> 00:11:28,617 Speaker 3: I mean, we've given almost as much to Ukraine and 241 00:11:28,617 --> 00:11:29,817 Speaker 3: over in the last year, you know, kind of a 242 00:11:29,857 --> 00:11:30,537 Speaker 3: year and a half. 243 00:11:30,697 --> 00:11:33,257 Speaker 1: So this is a huge amount of money. And that's 244 00:11:33,337 --> 00:11:35,937 Speaker 1: and that's I don't think going anywhere. So I think 245 00:11:35,977 --> 00:11:37,897 Speaker 1: we're in. I mean, where is this all going to go. 246 00:11:38,897 --> 00:11:43,537 Speaker 3: Look, we don't know what they're thinking in Tehran and Moscow. 247 00:11:43,617 --> 00:11:46,257 Speaker 3: We can Beijing, we can glean, we can infer, but 248 00:11:46,337 --> 00:11:48,697 Speaker 3: I think the most compelling way of looking at is 249 00:11:48,737 --> 00:11:51,617 Speaker 3: to kind of fit the dots on the line. Putin 250 00:11:51,697 --> 00:11:55,457 Speaker 3: didn't condemn the Hamas attack and the and the rhetoric 251 00:11:55,497 --> 00:11:57,737 Speaker 3: out of Moscow is to say, well, this is the 252 00:11:57,777 --> 00:11:59,417 Speaker 3: price you pay, this is how the you know, this 253 00:11:59,457 --> 00:12:01,497 Speaker 3: is where we're going to pull the Americans away. And 254 00:12:01,537 --> 00:12:04,217 Speaker 3: of course the Iranians have been helping the Russians with 255 00:12:04,297 --> 00:12:06,137 Speaker 3: the drones that have they been using on the front, 256 00:12:06,177 --> 00:12:10,177 Speaker 3: So the Russians owe the Iranians, and meantime, the Iranian 257 00:12:10,337 --> 00:12:13,577 Speaker 3: benefit from Hamas taking this action. That's let's apart the 258 00:12:13,577 --> 00:12:16,697 Speaker 3: Sautas and the Israelis. And who benefits the most the Chinese, 259 00:12:16,777 --> 00:12:19,777 Speaker 3: because it stretches the Americans out. And there are people 260 00:12:19,777 --> 00:12:21,737 Speaker 3: who are acting as if we have no constraints, that 261 00:12:21,777 --> 00:12:24,857 Speaker 3: there is no scarcity, and that's just not serious. And 262 00:12:24,897 --> 00:12:27,457 Speaker 3: I mean, the American people are already fed up with 263 00:12:27,537 --> 00:12:29,617 Speaker 3: the forever wars and they've spent a lot of money, 264 00:12:30,017 --> 00:12:31,777 Speaker 3: and unfortunately, I think we are going to need to 265 00:12:31,817 --> 00:12:33,737 Speaker 3: have to spend more money on defense industrial base, not 266 00:12:33,777 --> 00:12:35,577 Speaker 3: so we get into other wars, but so we can 267 00:12:35,617 --> 00:12:38,057 Speaker 3: help our allies that like Israel, that want to be 268 00:12:38,097 --> 00:12:40,537 Speaker 3: able to defend themselves, be able to do so. But 269 00:12:40,577 --> 00:12:42,777 Speaker 3: that's not where we are right now, and so you know, 270 00:12:42,817 --> 00:12:45,057 Speaker 3: we're in really grim shape. I wish the President would 271 00:12:45,057 --> 00:12:48,617 Speaker 3: have gotten on national television and say, look, people, this 272 00:12:48,697 --> 00:12:49,617 Speaker 3: is the biggest problem. 273 00:12:49,657 --> 00:12:52,297 Speaker 1: This is an opportunity to regrow our industrial base. That's 274 00:12:52,337 --> 00:12:52,937 Speaker 1: not what he did. 275 00:12:54,017 --> 00:12:56,617 Speaker 2: Interesting, you know, the notion of regrowing the industrial base, 276 00:12:57,217 --> 00:13:03,577 Speaker 2: but also the revulsion that it seems certainly the Republican base. 277 00:13:03,617 --> 00:13:05,457 Speaker 2: And I would assume a lot of Democrats have as 278 00:13:05,497 --> 00:13:10,817 Speaker 2: well for the military industrial complex. Rhee On, you know, Boeing, 279 00:13:11,217 --> 00:13:13,097 Speaker 2: how do you how do you square that? Like, is 280 00:13:13,097 --> 00:13:17,897 Speaker 2: there a way to sell revitalizing an industry, basically the 281 00:13:17,977 --> 00:13:20,537 Speaker 2: munitions industries that we have real war fighting capability and 282 00:13:20,537 --> 00:13:23,297 Speaker 2: also the ability to support our allies without sounding like 283 00:13:23,337 --> 00:13:24,457 Speaker 2: being a show for Raytheon. 284 00:13:24,537 --> 00:13:27,377 Speaker 1: You know what I mean, I know exactly what you mean. 285 00:13:27,417 --> 00:13:30,697 Speaker 3: I'm an acutely sensitive to this, you know, partially just 286 00:13:30,737 --> 00:13:32,977 Speaker 3: instrumentally being a defense guy. I always I think a 287 00:13:33,017 --> 00:13:35,297 Speaker 3: lot of people, like they hear defense and foreign policy 288 00:13:35,297 --> 00:13:37,417 Speaker 3: people talking about increasing the defense budget, they just tune 289 00:13:37,457 --> 00:13:38,737 Speaker 3: it out. I mean, I was at a hell thing 290 00:13:39,097 --> 00:13:40,977 Speaker 3: with a bunch of Republican congressman a few years ago, 291 00:13:40,977 --> 00:13:42,657 Speaker 3: and they had a bunch of more the defense hawks 292 00:13:42,657 --> 00:13:44,697 Speaker 3: came in and I overheard one of the other kind 293 00:13:44,697 --> 00:13:47,137 Speaker 3: of normal Republican congressmens, Oh, the defense hawks are back, 294 00:13:47,177 --> 00:13:49,417 Speaker 3: you know, and they just they just discount it. So 295 00:13:49,657 --> 00:13:53,297 Speaker 3: I'm sensitive that instrumentally, but also substantively. I think there's 296 00:13:53,337 --> 00:13:55,577 Speaker 3: a reason, I mean, we spend almost a trillion dollars 297 00:13:55,617 --> 00:13:58,777 Speaker 3: a year, and what do we have munition scarcity? I 298 00:13:58,777 --> 00:14:01,737 Speaker 3: mean really, so obviously this system is broken. There's five 299 00:14:01,817 --> 00:14:07,257 Speaker 3: defense primes. In the nineteen eighties we had thirty defense primes. 300 00:14:07,297 --> 00:14:09,297 Speaker 3: We had even more earlier. So to me, this is 301 00:14:09,297 --> 00:14:11,737 Speaker 3: an opportunity for the kind of industrial policy, the new 302 00:14:11,777 --> 00:14:13,737 Speaker 3: thinking that you get out of place like American Compass, 303 00:14:13,777 --> 00:14:16,737 Speaker 3: American Affairs, et cetera. On the left, people like Rocana 304 00:14:16,777 --> 00:14:19,857 Speaker 3: and Matt Stoler, that you could get a bipartisan coalition 305 00:14:20,177 --> 00:14:22,297 Speaker 3: that says, look, we're going to re We understand this 306 00:14:22,337 --> 00:14:24,417 Speaker 3: is going to take government invention. We're not just going 307 00:14:24,457 --> 00:14:26,417 Speaker 3: to fill I mean Greg Hayes, the CEO of Raytheon, 308 00:14:26,497 --> 00:14:28,697 Speaker 3: was saying that they couldn't decouple from China. I mean, 309 00:14:28,697 --> 00:14:31,097 Speaker 3: why would we stuff the pockets of people like that, 310 00:14:31,417 --> 00:14:34,137 Speaker 3: who are you know, basically accountable to their shareholders and 311 00:14:34,217 --> 00:14:36,617 Speaker 3: are not going to be thinking about what's necessarily in 312 00:14:36,617 --> 00:14:39,017 Speaker 3: the country's best And I'm not saying he's a bad guy, 313 00:14:39,257 --> 00:14:42,057 Speaker 3: but I'm saying, like, that's not And a lot of 314 00:14:42,097 --> 00:14:44,217 Speaker 3: I think the traditional Republicans say oh, let's just double 315 00:14:44,217 --> 00:14:48,177 Speaker 3: defense beending, and people are thinking themselves, yeah, really, like 316 00:14:48,217 --> 00:14:51,537 Speaker 3: that's not so. But I do think and I think 317 00:14:51,537 --> 00:14:55,697 Speaker 3: it meets a number of different political objectives and interests. 318 00:14:56,097 --> 00:14:57,537 Speaker 3: I mean, one of them is what I'm talking about, 319 00:14:57,537 --> 00:14:59,857 Speaker 3: having more weapons A, so we're ready and so we 320 00:14:59,897 --> 00:15:00,777 Speaker 3: have peace through strength. 321 00:15:00,777 --> 00:15:02,937 Speaker 1: To use the cliche, but it's kind of true. B. 322 00:15:03,617 --> 00:15:07,337 Speaker 1: We can give weapons to countries like Israel, more to Ukraine, 323 00:15:07,417 --> 00:15:10,257 Speaker 1: South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, so they can fight the who 324 00:15:10,297 --> 00:15:11,777 Speaker 1: are ready to fight. We can help them do that. 325 00:15:12,257 --> 00:15:15,617 Speaker 3: But at the same time, bring back good, hard paying job, 326 00:15:15,977 --> 00:15:18,657 Speaker 3: good you know, hard working, good paying jobs back to 327 00:15:18,697 --> 00:15:20,657 Speaker 3: this country. We don't like, we don't have enough welders 328 00:15:20,697 --> 00:15:23,057 Speaker 3: for our submarine force. We're just gonna need to create them. 329 00:15:23,377 --> 00:15:24,737 Speaker 3: And those are good jobs, and then they'll be white 330 00:15:24,777 --> 00:15:26,657 Speaker 3: collar jobs and blue collar jobs and what have you. 331 00:15:27,217 --> 00:15:29,377 Speaker 3: I think that's the way that we talk about it. 332 00:15:29,377 --> 00:15:31,337 Speaker 3: But it's very important. I think you're absolutely right, Buck, 333 00:15:31,497 --> 00:15:33,417 Speaker 3: it's very important that this not be seen and not 334 00:15:33,577 --> 00:15:38,257 Speaker 3: actually be just a gift to the established players who 335 00:15:38,257 --> 00:15:39,577 Speaker 3: are just going to keep doing what they're doing. 336 00:15:40,617 --> 00:15:46,177 Speaker 2: Yes, because it certainly seems like the big defense contractors 337 00:15:46,297 --> 00:15:49,657 Speaker 2: people have had their have had their feel of the 338 00:15:49,977 --> 00:15:52,417 Speaker 2: run up and costs that incur all the time, and 339 00:15:52,457 --> 00:15:58,417 Speaker 2: somehow the lack of sustained large scale war fighting capability 340 00:15:58,457 --> 00:16:00,177 Speaker 2: that we have at the same time, right, like, yeah, 341 00:16:00,217 --> 00:16:03,097 Speaker 2: you know, we're getting really fancy planes, but do we 342 00:16:03,177 --> 00:16:05,977 Speaker 2: have enough artillery shells? I mean, these are important things 343 00:16:06,017 --> 00:16:07,457 Speaker 2: to figure out. 344 00:16:07,617 --> 00:16:10,457 Speaker 3: Fixed ships, like basic things. And and so it's like 345 00:16:10,497 --> 00:16:12,817 Speaker 3: we're spending people say, oh, we're not spending enough on defense. 346 00:16:12,817 --> 00:16:14,617 Speaker 3: We'll like spilling and spending a trillion dollars. 347 00:16:14,657 --> 00:16:15,977 Speaker 1: Shouldn't we get a better output? 348 00:16:16,457 --> 00:16:19,177 Speaker 2: You would think? So, I want to talk China with 349 00:16:19,337 --> 00:16:21,817 Speaker 2: you in a second here, But first up, some people 350 00:16:21,817 --> 00:16:23,657 Speaker 2: in the know are speculating on a coming change to 351 00:16:23,657 --> 00:16:26,017 Speaker 2: our currency system. According to one of them, a former 352 00:16:26,017 --> 00:16:28,937 Speaker 2: Wall Street insider and digital currency expert, our federal government 353 00:16:28,937 --> 00:16:31,897 Speaker 2: could soon announce this change. In this scenario, our paper 354 00:16:31,897 --> 00:16:34,577 Speaker 2: currency could be replaced with something much more trackable, a 355 00:16:34,657 --> 00:16:38,137 Speaker 2: digital currency. This expert, a guy by the name of Tikatwari, 356 00:16:38,297 --> 00:16:41,097 Speaker 2: is warning that the official announcement could come within months. 357 00:16:41,377 --> 00:16:44,217 Speaker 2: He's exposing this government plan in an online video and 358 00:16:44,257 --> 00:16:46,737 Speaker 2: showing you the three steps you need to take to prepare. 359 00:16:47,097 --> 00:16:49,577 Speaker 2: Go to dollar recall dot com to watch this video. 360 00:16:49,657 --> 00:16:51,817 Speaker 2: You'll learn more about this plan and how to opt 361 00:16:51,857 --> 00:16:54,137 Speaker 2: out if you decide to do so. Go to dollar 362 00:16:54,137 --> 00:16:56,737 Speaker 2: recall dot com. Learn how to prepare before it's too late. 363 00:16:56,977 --> 00:17:00,137 Speaker 2: Your savings, your hard earn cash could really depend on 364 00:17:00,177 --> 00:17:03,217 Speaker 2: this one more time. Dollar recall dot Com paid for 365 00:17:03,337 --> 00:17:08,177 Speaker 2: by Palm Beach Research Group. All right, Bridge, So China's 366 00:17:08,177 --> 00:17:11,257 Speaker 2: watching all this stuff going on, Russia, Ukraine War, Israel 367 00:17:11,417 --> 00:17:15,777 Speaker 2: Hamas war. How are they sitting on the sidelines and 368 00:17:15,897 --> 00:17:19,097 Speaker 2: positioning themselves and benefiting and strategizing. 369 00:17:20,577 --> 00:17:22,617 Speaker 3: Well again, I mean, I don't know what's going through 370 00:17:22,657 --> 00:17:25,057 Speaker 3: Xijinping's head, but I'm looking at them and I'm saying 371 00:17:25,097 --> 00:17:27,977 Speaker 3: they're doing pretty much everything consistent with actually preparing for 372 00:17:28,057 --> 00:17:30,657 Speaker 3: war with the United States. They're training their conventional forces, 373 00:17:30,697 --> 00:17:32,857 Speaker 3: they're building them up. They're building them up in a 374 00:17:32,857 --> 00:17:35,097 Speaker 3: way that assumes they've solved the Taiwan problem. They're building 375 00:17:35,137 --> 00:17:37,417 Speaker 3: up their nuclear forces. They're sanctioned trying to sanction proof 376 00:17:37,457 --> 00:17:42,457 Speaker 3: their economy. They're conditional conditioning the Chinese people for suffering. 377 00:17:42,457 --> 00:17:44,577 Speaker 3: I mean, Chijin Ping is saying, get used to it. 378 00:17:44,617 --> 00:17:47,497 Speaker 3: There's going to be rocky waters. Okay, that's happening. Okay, 379 00:17:47,497 --> 00:17:49,217 Speaker 3: if you're China, then if you think about it kind 380 00:17:49,217 --> 00:17:52,697 Speaker 3: of inferentially or deductively, you say, what would be the 381 00:17:52,697 --> 00:17:55,097 Speaker 3: best situation. If you're going to attack Taiwan, if you're 382 00:17:55,097 --> 00:17:57,457 Speaker 3: going to take on the Americans, that's like a cosmic 383 00:17:57,497 --> 00:17:58,137 Speaker 3: roll of the dice. 384 00:17:58,337 --> 00:17:59,897 Speaker 1: And what's the lesson of Putin? 385 00:17:59,897 --> 00:18:02,177 Speaker 3: Putin has given a masterclass on what not to do 386 00:18:02,577 --> 00:18:05,057 Speaker 3: if you're an aggressor. You know, don't attack in twenty 387 00:18:05,097 --> 00:18:07,697 Speaker 3: fourteen and then wait eight years. Don't assume the other 388 00:18:07,697 --> 00:18:10,297 Speaker 3: guy's going to fall apart. Don't take for granted that 389 00:18:10,337 --> 00:18:14,417 Speaker 3: the Western Allies are going to be disunity, unified, et cetera. Okay, 390 00:18:14,417 --> 00:18:15,817 Speaker 3: if you're cheated in opinion, you take that, I mean, 391 00:18:15,817 --> 00:18:18,737 Speaker 3: it's pretty common sensical, then you basically, I think you 392 00:18:18,777 --> 00:18:22,257 Speaker 3: benefit from trying to stretch the Americans as much as possible. So, actually, 393 00:18:22,337 --> 00:18:25,217 Speaker 3: from China's point of view, I think the current situation 394 00:18:25,297 --> 00:18:28,497 Speaker 3: in Europe is actually optimal. Like they don't even necessarily 395 00:18:28,537 --> 00:18:32,497 Speaker 3: want a total Russian victory because now they Russia is 396 00:18:32,537 --> 00:18:35,217 Speaker 3: totally dependent on them and it's tying down the Americans 397 00:18:35,257 --> 00:18:36,657 Speaker 3: and by the way, the Europeans as well. 398 00:18:36,697 --> 00:18:39,297 Speaker 1: Oh, and then there's a major war that breaks out 399 00:18:39,337 --> 00:18:40,257 Speaker 1: in the Middle East. 400 00:18:40,257 --> 00:18:41,897 Speaker 3: And the United States might get involved in that, and 401 00:18:42,217 --> 00:18:46,257 Speaker 3: its attention is directed towards that well, you stretch the Americans, 402 00:18:46,297 --> 00:18:48,297 Speaker 3: you stretch, You stretch to stretch, and that gives you 403 00:18:48,337 --> 00:18:50,777 Speaker 3: a you the best opening possible. I'm not saying they're 404 00:18:50,777 --> 00:18:53,057 Speaker 3: going to do it tomorrow, but I am saying I 405 00:18:53,057 --> 00:18:55,577 Speaker 3: think there's a very very real risk in the coming years. 406 00:18:56,417 --> 00:18:59,057 Speaker 3: And China's behavior suggests a country that's you know, oh, 407 00:18:59,097 --> 00:19:01,217 Speaker 3: and then they're not going to pay any cost they 408 00:19:01,297 --> 00:19:03,337 Speaker 3: don't have to. They're saying, oh, we'd like to help 409 00:19:03,377 --> 00:19:05,777 Speaker 3: both parties in Europe and also in the Middle East. 410 00:19:06,017 --> 00:19:09,097 Speaker 3: So everybody's kind of trying to curry favor with the Chinese, 411 00:19:09,137 --> 00:19:11,337 Speaker 3: so they're not going to us up if a war 412 00:19:11,417 --> 00:19:12,537 Speaker 3: does happen in the Pacific. 413 00:19:13,497 --> 00:19:15,977 Speaker 2: What is the relationship like right now with China and 414 00:19:16,057 --> 00:19:17,697 Speaker 2: Russia specifically. 415 00:19:18,577 --> 00:19:20,337 Speaker 3: I mean, I think it's the closest has been since 416 00:19:20,377 --> 00:19:22,657 Speaker 3: the nineteen fifties in some ways, perhaps even closer at 417 00:19:22,697 --> 00:19:23,297 Speaker 3: the leader level. 418 00:19:23,377 --> 00:19:24,977 Speaker 1: I mean, they have deep, deep engagement. 419 00:19:25,017 --> 00:19:27,097 Speaker 3: I mean, the Russians are clearly the junior partner, but 420 00:19:27,137 --> 00:19:30,017 Speaker 3: I don't think they certainly Putin thinks he has an alternative. 421 00:19:30,417 --> 00:19:31,657 Speaker 1: And so what are the Chinese doing. 422 00:19:31,657 --> 00:19:36,697 Speaker 3: They're basically they are getting you know, secure natural resources, 423 00:19:36,857 --> 00:19:39,617 Speaker 3: energy supplies, possibly food and other things from Russia. And 424 00:19:39,657 --> 00:19:42,017 Speaker 3: by the way, the Russian military industry could potentially help 425 00:19:42,057 --> 00:19:44,017 Speaker 3: them out. And what are they doing in return, Well, 426 00:19:44,057 --> 00:19:47,537 Speaker 3: they're not providing weapons, but Russia's good at producing weapons 427 00:19:47,537 --> 00:19:48,017 Speaker 3: and can get. 428 00:19:47,937 --> 00:19:49,297 Speaker 1: It from Iran and North Korea. 429 00:19:49,817 --> 00:19:53,537 Speaker 3: They're propping up the Russian economy by you know, basically 430 00:19:53,577 --> 00:19:55,657 Speaker 3: with money, which is by far the most important thing. 431 00:19:55,697 --> 00:19:57,937 Speaker 3: So they don't tick off the Europeans and the Americans 432 00:19:58,297 --> 00:20:01,497 Speaker 3: enough to cross their threshold, but they achieve the goal anyway, 433 00:20:01,857 --> 00:20:04,297 Speaker 3: So I think it's a And then I think to myself, Okay, 434 00:20:04,377 --> 00:20:07,497 Speaker 3: if we think back to that stretching the United States problem, well, 435 00:20:07,617 --> 00:20:10,617 Speaker 3: China's really bailed Russia out. I mean Russia needs. If 436 00:20:10,697 --> 00:20:12,977 Speaker 3: China weren't around, Russia would be up a creek, probably 437 00:20:12,977 --> 00:20:16,457 Speaker 3: without a paddle. If you're in that situation, you're in 438 00:20:16,457 --> 00:20:18,137 Speaker 3: a long war with the West, and there's no way 439 00:20:18,137 --> 00:20:22,337 Speaker 3: there's going to be a there's not unlikely to be 440 00:20:22,377 --> 00:20:23,617 Speaker 3: a deal, and that Putin's going. 441 00:20:23,497 --> 00:20:23,897 Speaker 1: To cut a deal. 442 00:20:23,937 --> 00:20:25,177 Speaker 3: And by the way, I don't think the Chinese would 443 00:20:25,257 --> 00:20:28,777 Speaker 3: necessarily agree to back him in making a deal. Well, 444 00:20:28,817 --> 00:20:30,937 Speaker 3: then you know, maybe you get payback. I think there's 445 00:20:30,937 --> 00:20:33,017 Speaker 3: a very real possibility that the Chinese decide to go. 446 00:20:33,457 --> 00:20:36,457 Speaker 3: If I were Chijinping, what would I do? I would say, Hey, Putin, 447 00:20:36,497 --> 00:20:38,657 Speaker 3: I really bailed out. Now it's your turn to help 448 00:20:38,657 --> 00:20:38,897 Speaker 3: me out. 449 00:20:38,937 --> 00:20:39,977 Speaker 1: I want you to do X y Z. 450 00:20:40,137 --> 00:20:44,497 Speaker 3: Doesn't mean they're gonna invade Germany or something, although anything's possible, 451 00:20:44,497 --> 00:20:46,697 Speaker 3: but it's it does mean, hey, I'm going to make 452 00:20:46,737 --> 00:20:49,457 Speaker 3: things even worse in Europe to distract and tie down 453 00:20:49,497 --> 00:20:50,457 Speaker 3: the Americans. 454 00:20:51,057 --> 00:20:54,137 Speaker 2: Let's talk about the Chinese economy here and just second 455 00:20:54,137 --> 00:20:56,617 Speaker 2: it first up. You know you can see if you're 456 00:20:56,657 --> 00:20:58,417 Speaker 2: watching this, then you should because you should be subscribed 457 00:20:58,417 --> 00:21:00,617 Speaker 2: to our YouTube channel, YouTube dot com slash bucks ax. 458 00:21:00,657 --> 00:21:02,297 Speaker 2: And I've kind of let it go here with a beard, 459 00:21:02,337 --> 00:21:04,177 Speaker 2: and I'm not bearded these days, but I just have 460 00:21:04,217 --> 00:21:05,577 Speaker 2: been lazy for a few days. But you know what 461 00:21:05,617 --> 00:21:09,737 Speaker 2: I'm going to do. Use my one blade razor. The 462 00:21:09,857 --> 00:21:12,977 Speaker 2: one blade shave, my friends, gives you a clean, comfortable shave, 463 00:21:13,057 --> 00:21:16,137 Speaker 2: leaving your face feeling great. Those big razor companies have 464 00:21:16,137 --> 00:21:18,177 Speaker 2: been lined to you for decades saying that more blades 465 00:21:18,217 --> 00:21:20,817 Speaker 2: is better. You need four blades, eight blades, ten, whatever, 466 00:21:20,857 --> 00:21:24,617 Speaker 2: It's crazy. No, no, just one high quality blade held by 467 00:21:24,617 --> 00:21:28,977 Speaker 2: a razor that's actually engineered properly and that is worthy 468 00:21:29,017 --> 00:21:32,057 Speaker 2: of your face. One Blade's handle is metal, not plastic. 469 00:21:32,137 --> 00:21:35,977 Speaker 2: It's weighty and substantial. Look. One Blade Refill Plan means 470 00:21:36,017 --> 00:21:38,097 Speaker 2: you'll get blades sent straight to your door whenever you 471 00:21:38,137 --> 00:21:39,857 Speaker 2: need them, and you'll get a discount on your blades 472 00:21:39,897 --> 00:21:42,297 Speaker 2: with your sign up. All orders have a sixty day 473 00:21:42,337 --> 00:21:44,457 Speaker 2: return policy. Whether you use your blades or none, all 474 00:21:44,457 --> 00:21:46,417 Speaker 2: of your blades are none of your blades. Elevate your 475 00:21:46,457 --> 00:21:50,137 Speaker 2: shave experience. Get twenty percent off. Go online to one 476 00:21:50,177 --> 00:21:53,417 Speaker 2: bladeshave dot com slash buck that's one spelled out O 477 00:21:53,857 --> 00:21:57,377 Speaker 2: n E one bladeshave dot com slash buck to get 478 00:21:57,417 --> 00:22:00,657 Speaker 2: twenty percent off your first order. Bridge is a very 479 00:22:00,657 --> 00:22:02,457 Speaker 2: clean He's always been a very clean I've never seen 480 00:22:02,497 --> 00:22:02,897 Speaker 2: Bridge with. 481 00:22:02,817 --> 00:22:05,177 Speaker 1: A b I had a beard for one year. 482 00:22:05,497 --> 00:22:08,057 Speaker 2: Oh okay, I mean I've known Bridge like I met 483 00:22:08,057 --> 00:22:11,577 Speaker 2: Bridge with the first twenty years ago and and I've 484 00:22:11,577 --> 00:22:13,257 Speaker 2: never seen him with a beer before. So I got 485 00:22:13,257 --> 00:22:17,097 Speaker 2: to send him a one blade. But before we before 486 00:22:17,137 --> 00:22:20,137 Speaker 2: we let you go, you see this stuff about about 487 00:22:20,177 --> 00:22:22,577 Speaker 2: what is it evergrand and China, and you know the 488 00:22:22,617 --> 00:22:25,857 Speaker 2: economy there is there a chance. There are some folks 489 00:22:25,897 --> 00:22:27,937 Speaker 2: out there, including one or two we're friends of mine, 490 00:22:27,937 --> 00:22:30,697 Speaker 2: who are always like, the Chinese economy is about to implode, 491 00:22:31,497 --> 00:22:35,097 Speaker 2: and it doesn't really happen, but it could. What do 492 00:22:35,137 --> 00:22:38,657 Speaker 2: you see going on with China economically, because that's obviously going. 493 00:22:38,657 --> 00:22:41,177 Speaker 3: To play a big role in all of this, well 494 00:22:41,417 --> 00:22:43,337 Speaker 3: from a strategic point of view, from a national interest 495 00:22:43,337 --> 00:22:44,737 Speaker 3: point of view, I think we have to bet on 496 00:22:44,817 --> 00:22:46,017 Speaker 3: the you know, we have to bet. 497 00:22:46,137 --> 00:22:47,777 Speaker 1: We can't. We can't bet on winning the lottery. 498 00:22:47,857 --> 00:22:50,897 Speaker 3: So maybe it'll fall apart, but it seems pretty unlikely, 499 00:22:50,937 --> 00:22:52,977 Speaker 3: and I think we need to prepare for the downside risks. 500 00:22:53,017 --> 00:22:55,417 Speaker 1: So to me, that kind of settles it and more 501 00:22:55,417 --> 00:22:56,897 Speaker 1: and more to the point, I think, you know, the. 502 00:22:57,177 --> 00:22:59,497 Speaker 3: Best analysis I'm seeing is that the Chinese are running 503 00:22:59,497 --> 00:23:03,577 Speaker 3: into structural headwinds that day back for decades. You know, 504 00:23:03,657 --> 00:23:07,417 Speaker 3: Shijinping's own economic moves may be slowing the economy as well, 505 00:23:07,817 --> 00:23:09,777 Speaker 3: but I mean, like we see with the Huawei phone 506 00:23:09,817 --> 00:23:13,457 Speaker 3: and things going on, unfortunately, I think they are continuing 507 00:23:13,497 --> 00:23:17,377 Speaker 3: to you know, grow and make significant progress. I think, 508 00:23:17,817 --> 00:23:20,617 Speaker 3: you know, the best assessment, you know, is that there 509 00:23:20,697 --> 00:23:22,777 Speaker 3: is probably going to be a significant slowdown in the 510 00:23:22,857 --> 00:23:25,657 Speaker 3: Chinese economy with from like say the seven percent world 511 00:23:26,057 --> 00:23:27,977 Speaker 3: but probably in the realm of like two to three 512 00:23:28,017 --> 00:23:28,857 Speaker 3: percent real growth. 513 00:23:28,897 --> 00:23:30,657 Speaker 1: Two three percent growth, it's a lot lower than it 514 00:23:30,737 --> 00:23:33,337 Speaker 1: used to be, pretty high by OECD standards. 515 00:23:33,377 --> 00:23:35,577 Speaker 3: I mean, the German economy is going to contract this year, 516 00:23:35,977 --> 00:23:39,977 Speaker 3: our economy unclear, Other economies like the British economy, I believe, 517 00:23:40,497 --> 00:23:41,337 Speaker 3: had trough times. 518 00:23:41,497 --> 00:23:43,537 Speaker 1: So two to three percent, it's all relative. 519 00:23:44,217 --> 00:23:46,057 Speaker 3: And you know the other thing I say, there's a 520 00:23:46,177 --> 00:23:49,097 Speaker 3: huge number of people in China, especially including people who 521 00:23:49,097 --> 00:23:51,817 Speaker 3: have not yet reached like high levels of economic development. 522 00:23:52,057 --> 00:23:55,537 Speaker 3: There's still large levels of catch up growth available to China. 523 00:23:55,617 --> 00:23:58,337 Speaker 3: So I think the prudent assessment is that they're going 524 00:23:58,377 --> 00:24:00,217 Speaker 3: to continue to grow, even if at a slower rate. 525 00:24:01,577 --> 00:24:03,897 Speaker 2: Now I was, I mean, I was going to end 526 00:24:03,897 --> 00:24:05,297 Speaker 2: with that, but actually I want to ask you something 527 00:24:05,337 --> 00:24:07,617 Speaker 2: just out of my own curiosity. You know, your assessment 528 00:24:07,657 --> 00:24:09,337 Speaker 2: of this. You talked about China, how it might be 529 00:24:09,337 --> 00:24:12,297 Speaker 2: preparing for war with the US, and you see some 530 00:24:12,337 --> 00:24:15,297 Speaker 2: of those some of those movements and some of that underway. 531 00:24:15,937 --> 00:24:21,177 Speaker 2: At its core is the Chinese regime. The Chinese Communist 532 00:24:21,177 --> 00:24:25,897 Speaker 2: Party of today was Shijinping as its dictator. Effectively, is 533 00:24:25,977 --> 00:24:30,057 Speaker 2: it just an oppositional regime to the liberal world order 534 00:24:30,657 --> 00:24:37,057 Speaker 2: or is it a hostile and existential threat regime to 535 00:24:37,097 --> 00:24:38,337 Speaker 2: the world order? You know what I mean? 536 00:24:39,257 --> 00:24:39,617 Speaker 1: Yeah? 537 00:24:40,337 --> 00:24:43,177 Speaker 3: So look, I mean I think part of what makes 538 00:24:43,177 --> 00:24:46,217 Speaker 3: this situation so dangerous is that is that I don't 539 00:24:46,217 --> 00:24:49,057 Speaker 3: think China is totally irrational for thinking about going to war. 540 00:24:49,057 --> 00:24:51,057 Speaker 3: In fact, in some ways it is quite rational. And 541 00:24:51,377 --> 00:24:53,737 Speaker 3: a lot of this has to do ultimately, what this 542 00:24:53,817 --> 00:24:56,977 Speaker 3: is about is economics and growth and commerce and prosperity 543 00:24:57,017 --> 00:25:00,097 Speaker 3: and so forth. And I think what China appears to 544 00:25:00,177 --> 00:25:02,097 Speaker 3: want is what I think of as like a secure, 545 00:25:02,377 --> 00:25:05,057 Speaker 3: large economic sphere where they have a lot of scale 546 00:25:05,097 --> 00:25:07,777 Speaker 3: and they could orient the world's economy, particularly Asian economy, 547 00:25:07,777 --> 00:25:10,217 Speaker 3: around them, and then use that leverage to command the 548 00:25:10,217 --> 00:25:11,937 Speaker 3: world economy. Why would they want to do that? Because 549 00:25:11,977 --> 00:25:14,537 Speaker 3: it's awesome because you can you get to live better, 550 00:25:14,537 --> 00:25:16,417 Speaker 3: because you get to boss everybody else around. 551 00:25:17,137 --> 00:25:19,377 Speaker 1: And that's not I don't think they're like, I don't you. 552 00:25:19,337 --> 00:25:21,337 Speaker 3: Know, chese in opinion, he's not not a great human being, 553 00:25:21,417 --> 00:25:23,577 Speaker 3: I don't think, to say the least, but he's not Mauzadoon. 554 00:25:23,657 --> 00:25:25,017 Speaker 1: He's not Paul Pott. 555 00:25:26,017 --> 00:25:28,657 Speaker 3: I actually think if we were facing a non communist 556 00:25:29,097 --> 00:25:33,377 Speaker 3: Chinese regime or government, we might face very similar problems. 557 00:25:33,777 --> 00:25:35,657 Speaker 3: And that's what this sort of like the tragedy of 558 00:25:35,697 --> 00:25:38,777 Speaker 3: great power politics is. The problem is if China achieves 559 00:25:38,817 --> 00:25:40,537 Speaker 3: that goal and they appear to believe that we are 560 00:25:40,577 --> 00:25:43,617 Speaker 3: trying to strangle them with our economic sanctions, that's part 561 00:25:43,657 --> 00:25:46,817 Speaker 3: of the problem, a little bit like what happened with Japan. 562 00:25:46,577 --> 00:25:47,377 Speaker 1: In nineteen forty one. 563 00:25:47,417 --> 00:25:49,457 Speaker 3: They were the bad guys, but we kind of put 564 00:25:49,457 --> 00:25:52,777 Speaker 3: them in a corner with our oil and sanctions in 565 00:25:52,857 --> 00:25:56,417 Speaker 3: nineteen forty one, but without the military strength to deter them. 566 00:25:56,737 --> 00:25:59,497 Speaker 3: I think if China succeeds in that respect, because people 567 00:25:59,577 --> 00:26:02,257 Speaker 3: rightly are saying, well, you know, Taiwan doesn't appear to 568 00:26:02,297 --> 00:26:04,457 Speaker 3: care a lot about its defense, why should we care. 569 00:26:04,817 --> 00:26:06,897 Speaker 3: It's have a world away. The problem is Asia is 570 00:26:06,937 --> 00:26:08,897 Speaker 3: the world's the center of the world economy, and if 571 00:26:08,977 --> 00:26:11,177 Speaker 3: China dominates that, we're all going to be working for 572 00:26:11,257 --> 00:26:13,737 Speaker 3: them basically, and that means in their system, we're going 573 00:26:13,777 --> 00:26:16,857 Speaker 3: to be working basically for Shijinping. And that's why Taiwan 574 00:26:16,977 --> 00:26:20,617 Speaker 3: and the first island chain are so important, and unfortunately 575 00:26:21,497 --> 00:26:23,457 Speaker 3: that's all kind of theoretical. But then I look at 576 00:26:23,497 --> 00:26:26,257 Speaker 3: the data points that we see and they're consistent with 577 00:26:26,297 --> 00:26:26,937 Speaker 3: what I'm saying. 578 00:26:27,257 --> 00:26:28,377 Speaker 1: That's what really scares me. 579 00:26:29,497 --> 00:26:32,537 Speaker 2: Bridge Colby everybody, A Strategy of Denial is his book. 580 00:26:32,537 --> 00:26:36,337 Speaker 2: You should pick it up and uh Bridge, always insightful 581 00:26:36,537 --> 00:26:38,817 Speaker 2: and appreciate your expertise. My friend. Good to see you. 582 00:26:39,777 --> 00:26:40,857 Speaker 1: Thanks, Bob, good to see you too.