WEBVTT - Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is Masters in

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<v Speaker 1>Business with Barry Ritholts on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Barry Ridtolts. You're listening to Masters in Business on

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Radio. We have a bonus Masters in Business for you.

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<v Speaker 2>Live from future Proof Citywide, Miami. I sit down with

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<v Speaker 2>Harvey Schwartz, the CEO of the Carlisle Group. He has

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<v Speaker 2>a really fascinating and somewhat unconventional path to Wall Street.

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<v Speaker 2>We talk about he's just a news Jersey kid who

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<v Speaker 2>didn't know what he wanted to do and had a

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<v Speaker 2>hard time figuring out his life goals. And you know,

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<v Speaker 2>thanks to people who took an interest in him and

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<v Speaker 2>a couple of good breaks, plus a whole lot of

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<v Speaker 2>smarts and hard work, he ended up really creating a

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<v Speaker 2>career from ELF, not only at firms like Goldman Sachs,

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<v Speaker 2>but eventually getting tapped to become CEO at Carlisle. I

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<v Speaker 2>find Harvey to be an absolutely fascinating guy. He is

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<v Speaker 2>a no holds barred, blunt speaker, truth teller, really really

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<v Speaker 2>interesting person. I thought this conversation was great. You can

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<v Speaker 2>tell I'm having a lot of fun with no further

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<v Speaker 2>ado our special bonus Masters in Business Live with Harvey Schwartz,

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<v Speaker 2>CEO of the Carlisle Group. I am just so thrilled

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<v Speaker 2>to introduce you all to somebody that not only are

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<v Speaker 2>you gonna know more about in the coming years, but

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<v Speaker 2>it's been my pleasure to get to know over the

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<v Speaker 2>past couple of months. Harvey Schwartz is CEO of Carlile.

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<v Speaker 2>He comes to finance in a rather unusual way, and

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<v Speaker 2>I'm gonna let Harvey tell's story. Let's start right there.

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<v Speaker 2>You have a really unconventional Well before we go there,

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<v Speaker 2>Carlisle Private Equity, private credit, been doing this for a

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<v Speaker 2>long time. Chairman is David Rubinstein. Tell us a little

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<v Speaker 2>bit about Carlisle First, what do you guys do? How

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<v Speaker 2>much do you manage? Just give us the thirty second version.

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<v Speaker 3>Sure. Well, first of all, Barry, thanks for doing this.

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<v Speaker 3>Great to see you again, everyone, Fantastic to be here.

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<v Speaker 3>This is such an amazing venue. So Carlisle today is

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<v Speaker 3>about four to fifty billion of assets spread across private equity,

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<v Speaker 3>real estate, infrastructure, credit, insurance and secondaries and co invest.

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<v Speaker 3>For all of you in the audience, there are a

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<v Speaker 3>number of solutions you can show your clients see tech

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<v Speaker 3>which is the best of credit cap them. I'm sure

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<v Speaker 3>we'll get into some of this which is our secondary's

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<v Speaker 3>co in best business, and towards the end of the

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<v Speaker 3>year we'll be launching our private equity solution. But I

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<v Speaker 3>would say, you know, for me, been Carlo for two

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<v Speaker 3>years has been an incredible privilege. The firm was founded

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<v Speaker 3>in nineteen eighty seven by David Bill and Dan who

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<v Speaker 3>really have created a culture which is extraordinary in terms

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<v Speaker 3>of the people. We're twenty three hundred people today. Zach Foreman,

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<v Speaker 3>I don't know if Zach Forman is in the crowd anywhere. Zach,

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<v Speaker 3>can you stand up? Zach leads our effort down here,

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<v Speaker 3>so everybody should go to Zach afterwards, and then we

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<v Speaker 3>have a boot. So hey, that's I'm done with my

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<v Speaker 3>advertising for the day. But I feel like I've accomplished.

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<v Speaker 2>So let's talk a little bit about your background. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>when I look out at the world of finance and

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<v Speaker 2>see who are CEOs of companies that are two hundred billion,

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<v Speaker 2>half a trillion, a trillion plus, I don't want to

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<v Speaker 2>say they're all alike, because they're not. But there's a

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<v Speaker 2>certain background that you tend to see a certain type

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<v Speaker 2>of college and business school and career path. You're just

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<v Speaker 2>a guy from Jersey. How did you sort of full

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<v Speaker 2>ask bawards into finance?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I mean there are other successful people from New Jersey.

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<v Speaker 2>Barry John Stewart.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, no, Bruce Springsteen. Now there's a couple. But you

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<v Speaker 3>know what Barry's getting at, is it a little bit unconventional.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, everybody has the complexity of their life story.

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<v Speaker 3>But for me, uh, I did. Grew up in New Jersey,

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<v Speaker 3>I too, uh parents who were quite educated, but tragically

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<v Speaker 3>they suffered from severe mental illness. My mother suffered from

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<v Speaker 3>what we would call today by polar disorder, and my

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<v Speaker 3>father suffered really quite tragic schizophrenia which sort of over

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<v Speaker 3>time really just completely consumed him. And this is, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>many decades ago, and so treatment wasn't as good, an

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<v Speaker 3>understanding wasn't as good. The stigma of mental health related

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<v Speaker 3>issues and severe mental health is still an extraordinary problem

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<v Speaker 3>everywhere in the world, certainly in our country, but back

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<v Speaker 3>then it was even much worse. And so my mother

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<v Speaker 3>passed when I was fourteen. I don't want you all

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<v Speaker 3>to feel like you have to go to therapy with

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<v Speaker 3>me and Barry. By the way, but my mother passed

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<v Speaker 3>when I was fourteen, and then it was me and

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<v Speaker 3>my father, and it wasn't a particularly healthy environment, and

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<v Speaker 3>so I basically ended up doing really, really badly in

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<v Speaker 3>high school. I didn't I barely graduated by the time

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<v Speaker 3>I was a senior. I think it was like right

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<v Speaker 3>around Christmas. When I was a senior in high school

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<v Speaker 3>in New Jersey, I'd missed twenty seven days of school, which,

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<v Speaker 3>by the way, if you actually do the math, is

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<v Speaker 3>super hard to do. And so there was a good

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<v Speaker 3>chance I wasn't going to graduate. I didn't apply to

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<v Speaker 3>any colleges, but I got super fortunate. And you know,

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<v Speaker 3>Chris was really generous when she introduced me. She referred

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<v Speaker 3>to as a mentor, and I think you do have

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<v Speaker 3>mentors for hopefully everyone here as mentors in your life.

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<v Speaker 3>I had people that were more like angels that really

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<v Speaker 3>like intervened for whatever reason they did to help me

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<v Speaker 3>at certain crazy pivotal times in my life. And one

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<v Speaker 3>was a woman named Linda. I had plot. She encouraged

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<v Speaker 3>me to apply to Rutgers. I wasn't going to college.

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<v Speaker 3>I applied, I didn't get in Linda, who's like not

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<v Speaker 3>an influential person.

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<v Speaker 2>Let me, let me stop you. There wasn't there a

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<v Speaker 2>brief sojourn to California post high school.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, well that was like one of the early earlier angels.

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<v Speaker 3>So when I never really talked this much about this publicly,

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<v Speaker 3>So I apologize if anybody finds it not interesting. But

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<v Speaker 3>when I when I realized I had missed so many

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<v Speaker 3>days of school, there was a chance I wasn't going

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<v Speaker 3>to graduate. Certainly, my grades were not doing well. My

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<v Speaker 3>father and I were deteriorating pretty quickly. And when I

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<v Speaker 3>turned eighteen in March of that year, it was my

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<v Speaker 3>birthday last week, by the way, In March of that year,

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<v Speaker 3>I signed myself out of high school and I had

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<v Speaker 3>called some friends in California. I asked if they were

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<v Speaker 3>let me come live with them, and so I moved

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<v Speaker 3>to California. I actually graduated high school out there. Those

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<v Speaker 3>were like there were a lot of angels, but that

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<v Speaker 3>family was an extraordinary angel. They took me in, but

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<v Speaker 3>I didn't apply to any colleges and then and then

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<v Speaker 3>eventually Linda came up long and encouraged me to apply

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<v Speaker 3>to Rutgers.

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<v Speaker 2>That was the next time that that was back in

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<v Speaker 2>New Jersey.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so I come back and by the way, full.

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<v Speaker 2>Disclosure, I mac on New Jersey. I grew up in Teaneck,

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<v Speaker 2>New Jersey. So I feel like I'm allowed to make

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<v Speaker 2>fun of the Styeah.

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<v Speaker 3>No, of course, and yet another successful person from New

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<v Speaker 3>Jersey right here live the so now it was. It

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<v Speaker 3>was a complicated, confusing time I had to come back.

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<v Speaker 3>I lived with my father. That wasn't great. I was working,

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<v Speaker 3>as for those year old enough, a health instructor at

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<v Speaker 3>a squash club in Chatham, New Jersey for the New

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<v Speaker 3>Jersey and there was a thing called Nautilus. I was

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<v Speaker 3>the person that trained people in the gym, which is

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<v Speaker 3>a sort of hard feed to imagine looking at me today.

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<v Speaker 3>But I had hair, thinner, better, more fit and but anyway,

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<v Speaker 3>uh Lynda and her husband used to come through and

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<v Speaker 3>I just got to know them, and she said she

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<v Speaker 3>was a Rutgers graduate, but she wasn't an influential person

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<v Speaker 3>like you berry, and she encouraged me to apply. I

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<v Speaker 3>didn't get in because of my track record in high school.

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<v Speaker 3>And she was so incensed by this that she called

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<v Speaker 3>the university and basically convinced them to interview me and

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<v Speaker 3>write an essay about why I was such a screw

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<v Speaker 3>up in high school and Rutgers, which is an incredible institution,

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<v Speaker 3>changed their selection allowed me to go to school. And

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<v Speaker 3>that's why you know, Linda's an angel and the more

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<v Speaker 3>family's an angel, and these people like really intervened in

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<v Speaker 3>my life, I think in ways that are kind of

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<v Speaker 3>hard to conceive. And Rutgers today, I think the stats

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<v Speaker 3>are well over half the students still get financial aid,

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<v Speaker 3>sort of one in three or first ever go to

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<v Speaker 3>college and their family. It's an amazing institution and for

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<v Speaker 3>someone like me gave me all the opportunity in the world.

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<v Speaker 3>That's great.

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<v Speaker 2>By the way, don't take the lesson that if your

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<v Speaker 2>kid doesn't get into Princeton all up and yell at

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<v Speaker 2>the emissions department. That's not the lesson we want you

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<v Speaker 2>to take from this. So sore, you're now coming out

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<v Speaker 2>of Rutgers. You don't have the traditional Ivy League business

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<v Speaker 2>school background. How do you find your way into the

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<v Speaker 2>world of finance?

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<v Speaker 3>Very clumsily. I didn't know Rutgers, certainly back then, much

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<v Speaker 3>better now. I didn't know there were JP Morgan's in

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<v Speaker 3>the World or Morgan Stanley's or Goldman Sachs I had.

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<v Speaker 3>I didn't even know where Wall Street was. I'd never

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<v Speaker 3>been to Wall Street. First time I went, I was

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<v Speaker 3>surprised it was such a little street. I just make

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<v Speaker 3>sure a much bigger street. So it's pretty naive, about

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<v Speaker 3>as naive as you could get. And then through a friend,

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<v Speaker 3>I took a job at a firm called JB. Hanour

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<v Speaker 3>For those of you're old enough, it was a municipal

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<v Speaker 3>bond firm back in the day. This is nineteen eighty seven,

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<v Speaker 3>and just show a hand. So how many people know

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<v Speaker 3>what it means to work on a draw? Yeah? So

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<v Speaker 3>I worked on a draw, which means you got paid

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<v Speaker 3>one thousand dollars a month, but effectively it was alone

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<v Speaker 3>and you owed it back, and you cold called, and

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<v Speaker 3>you tried to build your book of business. And I

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<v Speaker 3>proved to be uniquely bad at this. Yeah, uniquely bad

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<v Speaker 3>at this. Yeah, maybe a little bit was timing. My

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<v Speaker 3>first day coming out of the training program was the

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<v Speaker 3>day the stock market fell. Yeah, October nineteenth, down five

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<v Speaker 3>hundred eight points. There I was like naively cold calling people.

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<v Speaker 3>By the way, back then there were like real phones.

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<v Speaker 3>You had to actually push buttons and stuff, and I

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<v Speaker 3>had this little cushion thing you would keep your head

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<v Speaker 3>like this, and you were mostly crippled by the end

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<v Speaker 3>of the day. But so, yeah, it was a bad

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<v Speaker 3>time to try, and I didn't do very well at it.

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<v Speaker 3>I had no money. I owed everybody in the world money.

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<v Speaker 3>I had borrowed a lot of money to go to school, friends,

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<v Speaker 3>anyone I could find, And you know, it was pretty stressful.

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<v Speaker 2>So how do you make your way from cold calling

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<v Speaker 2>into either asset management or firm white management. You've run

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<v Speaker 2>your way through a lot of different departments. How do

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<v Speaker 2>you go from just being a smiler and dialer to

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<v Speaker 2>somebody larger in charge.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I got really fortunate. I was. I was at

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<v Speaker 3>a tough point. My daughter was one year old, and

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<v Speaker 3>I was kind of really running out of money. At

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<v Speaker 3>one point, I thought, jeez, I might have to file

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<v Speaker 3>for personal bankruptcy. But I didn't really know what that meant,

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<v Speaker 3>but I knew it was a thing you did when

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<v Speaker 3>you ran out of money. And again, a friend to

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<v Speaker 3>me a huge favor and got me a position in

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<v Speaker 3>the what they referred to as the back office at

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<v Speaker 3>City Bank. In nineteen eighty nine, and that was really

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<v Speaker 3>the first time I'd say I was on a track

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<v Speaker 3>that would begin to look more conventional, although obviously starting

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<v Speaker 3>in these I was hard as a temp I eventually

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<v Speaker 3>became a full time employee, and then I went into

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<v Speaker 3>the credit training program at City Bank. But I will

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<v Speaker 3>say right around that period I asked someone I worked

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<v Speaker 3>with them at City Bank, and I was so impressed

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<v Speaker 3>with how intelligent they were. And this will give you

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<v Speaker 3>a sense of how clumsy I was still And we

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<v Speaker 3>went out one night and I said something the effect

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<v Speaker 3>of Jees, you're so smart. I would have thought you

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<v Speaker 3>would have accomplished more by now in your life, which

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<v Speaker 3>is a horrible, cringeworthy thing to say to someone. But

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<v Speaker 3>he was so gracious taught me a lot in that

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<v Speaker 3>moment because he was gracious about it, didn't get offended.

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<v Speaker 3>And he said, you know, Harvey, you'll learn in your

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<v Speaker 3>life careers are fifty percent luck, fifty percent skill. And

0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:51.120
<v Speaker 3>that always stuck with me, buried because I don't know

0:12:51.160 --> 0:12:53.319
<v Speaker 3>that it's fifty percent luck. But for me, I got

0:12:53.360 --> 0:12:55.600
<v Speaker 3>to say, like, there are days it feels mostly ninety

0:12:55.600 --> 0:12:58.320
<v Speaker 3>ten or ninety nine to one that it's luck. And

0:12:58.360 --> 0:13:03.959
<v Speaker 3>I think along the way people, every time you're given responsibility,

0:13:04.000 --> 0:13:06.559
<v Speaker 3>somebody's making a leap of faith giving you that responsibility.

0:13:07.200 --> 0:13:09.319
<v Speaker 3>And along the way people did, whether it was at

0:13:09.320 --> 0:13:12.320
<v Speaker 3>City Bank. Then I went to Goldman Sachs. I had

0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:19.560
<v Speaker 3>some incredibly uh, some incredible experiences of Goman Sacks. I

0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:23.199
<v Speaker 3>moved around quite a bit after leaving Goman Sacks in

0:13:23.200 --> 0:13:28.480
<v Speaker 3>twenty eighteen. Ultimately, Carlisle called Carlisle calling, is luck? Right?

0:13:28.520 --> 0:13:30.199
<v Speaker 3>It's just a random thing that I end up sitting

0:13:30.200 --> 0:13:32.800
<v Speaker 3>here with you, and so I think that it's really.

0:13:32.600 --> 0:13:34.400
<v Speaker 2>Hard to I'm going to pull out the yellow card

0:13:34.559 --> 0:13:38.920
<v Speaker 2>and call on that, because lots of luck up to

0:13:39.000 --> 0:13:41.640
<v Speaker 2>this point. But you're a Goldman for a while, and

0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:46.920
<v Speaker 2>you're developing a reputation, you're improving what's already a very

0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:51.640
<v Speaker 2>well oiled machine. When Carlile called you, it wasn't let's

0:13:51.720 --> 0:13:54.120
<v Speaker 2>randomly call somebody and see if we can find a

0:13:54.160 --> 0:13:56.400
<v Speaker 2>new CEO. They knew who you were.

0:13:57.320 --> 0:14:03.079
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's true. I don't want to overweight the luck.

0:14:03.160 --> 0:14:03.319
<v Speaker 2>Thing.

0:14:03.600 --> 0:14:05.120
<v Speaker 3>People would say to me when I say that, Well,

0:14:05.160 --> 0:14:07.560
<v Speaker 3>you can make your own look, and that's true to

0:14:07.600 --> 0:14:09.720
<v Speaker 3>some extent. You can influence your luck through hard work.

0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:14.520
<v Speaker 3>But okay, everybody in this room just by being here.

0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:19.320
<v Speaker 3>You everyone here, there's prerequisites, right, you're all smart. Everybody's

0:14:19.360 --> 0:14:23.120
<v Speaker 3>hard working, because that's like prerequisites, that's just table stake stuff.

0:14:24.960 --> 0:14:27.240
<v Speaker 3>I do think luck and randomness play a lot in life.

0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:29.960
<v Speaker 3>You know, I'm sixty one. I was born in nineteen

0:14:30.000 --> 0:14:34.400
<v Speaker 3>sixty four. In my life, that's a really good time

0:14:34.440 --> 0:14:36.280
<v Speaker 3>to be born. Like, I don't think you can not

0:14:36.400 --> 0:14:40.000
<v Speaker 3>acknowledge some of these things. And so, but I will

0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:48.280
<v Speaker 3>say my early experiences, if anything, I would say I

0:14:48.320 --> 0:14:52.440
<v Speaker 3>was so insecure because I didn't get into college and

0:14:52.480 --> 0:14:55.360
<v Speaker 3>I barely got out of high school. I think it

0:14:55.600 --> 0:15:03.000
<v Speaker 3>just motivated fear, scared, insecure, and I think all that

0:15:03.120 --> 0:15:06.920
<v Speaker 3>kind of compounded into feeling like, wow, I am alongside

0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:09.560
<v Speaker 3>all these people who went to these extraordinary schools, and

0:15:09.560 --> 0:15:11.400
<v Speaker 3>the only way I could compete, I kind of felt

0:15:11.480 --> 0:15:15.440
<v Speaker 3>was to just work a lot. I always felt like

0:15:15.480 --> 0:15:20.440
<v Speaker 3>that was my thing, and to this day, that's kind

0:15:20.440 --> 0:15:22.560
<v Speaker 3>of what I think, although obviously I've had a set

0:15:22.600 --> 0:15:24.360
<v Speaker 3>of experiences now which give me more confidence.

0:15:24.440 --> 0:15:29.040
<v Speaker 2>So Rutgers to City to Goldman. The next question is

0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:32.600
<v Speaker 2>what draws you to the private side of the markets.

0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:35.080
<v Speaker 2>You could have done public fixed income, you could have

0:15:35.080 --> 0:15:37.480
<v Speaker 2>done equities for the rest of the career. You made

0:15:37.480 --> 0:15:42.000
<v Speaker 2>a hard pivot to private markets. Tell us about why

0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:44.120
<v Speaker 2>and what that experience has been like.

0:15:45.160 --> 0:15:47.400
<v Speaker 3>Well, after leaving Goldman, I was in a really unique

0:15:47.400 --> 0:15:49.760
<v Speaker 3>position in my life because I was so fortunate that

0:15:49.760 --> 0:15:53.000
<v Speaker 3>I didn't have to work right away, but because as

0:15:53.040 --> 0:15:55.360
<v Speaker 3>you said, I had a nice resume, people knew with me,

0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:58.240
<v Speaker 3>I got a lot of opportunities. None of them were

0:15:58.280 --> 0:16:01.920
<v Speaker 3>compelling until Carlisle came. And Carlile was compelling for very

0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:05.640
<v Speaker 3>very simple reasons. One, I knew the firm. They had

0:16:05.640 --> 0:16:08.560
<v Speaker 3>been my client when I was at Golmen Sachs. We

0:16:08.600 --> 0:16:11.720
<v Speaker 3>committed a lot of capital to all those big firms,

0:16:12.080 --> 0:16:13.920
<v Speaker 3>So I knew the firm. I spent a lot of

0:16:13.960 --> 0:16:16.840
<v Speaker 3>time with the founders. They're incredible people, David, Bill and Dan,

0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:21.680
<v Speaker 3>both as professionals and as also just generous human beings

0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:27.320
<v Speaker 3>and leaders. And then I knew the industry and the

0:16:27.440 --> 0:16:32.200
<v Speaker 3>secular trends and cyclical trends in this industry in private

0:16:32.200 --> 0:16:36.720
<v Speaker 3>capital are extraordinary, and they've been this way for well

0:16:36.720 --> 0:16:40.840
<v Speaker 3>over twenty years. And so I knew the industry I

0:16:40.880 --> 0:16:44.640
<v Speaker 3>knew Carlisle's rolling it and it was really too much

0:16:44.640 --> 0:16:45.200
<v Speaker 3>to pass up.

0:16:45.600 --> 0:16:48.880
<v Speaker 2>So I know David a little bit. I don't know

0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:52.160
<v Speaker 2>the other co founders, and he is legitimately one of

0:16:52.200 --> 0:16:56.400
<v Speaker 2>the most amazing people I ever met my entire life.

0:16:56.440 --> 0:16:59.520
<v Speaker 2>And I've done, you know, five hundred and fifty of these.

0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:02.840
<v Speaker 2>But let's bring this back to the private equity side.

0:17:02.880 --> 0:17:05.240
<v Speaker 3>So that would be your favorite, this would be your second.

0:17:06.000 --> 0:17:09.400
<v Speaker 2>I didn't say my favorite. I just remember leaving that

0:17:09.440 --> 0:17:15.200
<v Speaker 2>conversation and saying, Jesus Christ, this guy every space he's in.

0:17:15.640 --> 0:17:20.879
<v Speaker 2>He moves the needle in Congress, in markets, in philanthropy

0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:25.080
<v Speaker 2>and sports, like he doesn't touch something and not leave

0:17:25.119 --> 0:17:27.720
<v Speaker 2>it better than how he found it. Yeah, it's really

0:17:27.880 --> 0:17:29.960
<v Speaker 2>it's inspirational, and I don't want to be I don't

0:17:29.960 --> 0:17:30.960
<v Speaker 2>want to make this about David.

0:17:31.000 --> 0:17:31.600
<v Speaker 3>It's about you.

0:17:31.640 --> 0:17:33.639
<v Speaker 2>But you get to work with him.

0:17:33.800 --> 0:17:35.320
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, every day.

0:17:35.080 --> 0:17:40.359
<v Speaker 2>So you mentioned the private market side. We have interest

0:17:40.440 --> 0:17:43.280
<v Speaker 2>rates that crash to zero in the early two thousands,

0:17:43.680 --> 0:17:48.360
<v Speaker 2>then following the financial crisis, we get ZIRP for almost

0:17:48.400 --> 0:17:54.480
<v Speaker 2>fifteen years. How does that environment lead to Carlisle, which

0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:58.360
<v Speaker 2>hasn't always been almost half a trillion dollars. It started

0:17:58.400 --> 0:18:02.320
<v Speaker 2>out at a much more modest size. How does the

0:18:02.359 --> 0:18:07.199
<v Speaker 2>past twenty year market environment lead to Carlisle really becoming

0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:10.320
<v Speaker 2>the eight hundred pound gorilla in the room.

0:18:10.680 --> 0:18:15.080
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so I think you mentioned some really key factors

0:18:15.280 --> 0:18:18.040
<v Speaker 3>which I think are contributing. It's always going to be

0:18:18.040 --> 0:18:21.879
<v Speaker 3>the case that whatever the market environment is, wherever interest

0:18:21.960 --> 0:18:24.520
<v Speaker 3>rates are, it's going to be the case that that's

0:18:24.520 --> 0:18:28.080
<v Speaker 3>a contributing factor to how markets evolve. I don't think

0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:31.639
<v Speaker 3>that's the key driver. If you go back to two thousand,

0:18:31.720 --> 0:18:33.159
<v Speaker 3>I'll get these numbers slightly wrong. I think there was

0:18:33.160 --> 0:18:36.120
<v Speaker 3>something like sixty two hundred public companies. Now that number

0:18:36.160 --> 0:18:40.959
<v Speaker 3>is closer to three thousand. This trend of public companies

0:18:43.000 --> 0:18:46.879
<v Speaker 3>shrinking and private companies staying private for longer, this has

0:18:46.920 --> 0:18:49.439
<v Speaker 3>been in place for decades. If you think about the

0:18:49.480 --> 0:18:53.720
<v Speaker 3>evolution of capital broadly, and you go back to the

0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:55.880
<v Speaker 3>fact that Carlisle was founded by David Bill and Dan

0:18:56.480 --> 0:18:59.720
<v Speaker 3>They were literally driving past the Carlisle Hotel and decided

0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:02.880
<v Speaker 3>to name at Carlisle in nineteen eighty seven. There really

0:19:03.000 --> 0:19:07.119
<v Speaker 3>was the birth of private equity, which they were part of.

0:19:07.480 --> 0:19:10.840
<v Speaker 3>And you had venture capital, so you had buyouts, and

0:19:10.880 --> 0:19:15.560
<v Speaker 3>you had seed opportunities. What systematically has happened over the

0:19:15.600 --> 0:19:18.600
<v Speaker 3>thirty plus year period and certainly from two thousand when

0:19:18.640 --> 0:19:22.920
<v Speaker 3>you now have companies staying private, is the capital available

0:19:23.440 --> 0:19:26.879
<v Speaker 3>has just continued to grow. So, whether it's direct lending,

0:19:27.000 --> 0:19:32.280
<v Speaker 3>asset based finance, integration with insurance, the opportunity set and

0:19:32.320 --> 0:19:35.360
<v Speaker 3>the capital providers have just continued to expand, whether it's

0:19:35.359 --> 0:19:39.640
<v Speaker 3>pension funds now all of you participating in wealth. It's

0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:42.399
<v Speaker 3>the capital that is creating the opportunity for companies to

0:19:42.400 --> 0:19:44.760
<v Speaker 3>stay private. It's not as though companies woke up one

0:19:44.800 --> 0:19:46.639
<v Speaker 3>day and said, geez, I wish there was private capital.

0:19:46.640 --> 0:19:49.240
<v Speaker 3>I'd like to stay private. And so this evolution of

0:19:49.280 --> 0:19:51.600
<v Speaker 3>the capital markets, I think is just part of a

0:19:51.600 --> 0:19:55.320
<v Speaker 3>broader evolution. We didn't have ETFs back in the of

0:19:55.400 --> 0:19:57.840
<v Speaker 3>such significance. If you went all the way back to

0:19:58.640 --> 0:20:00.920
<v Speaker 3>nineteen eighty seven, I can remember two thousand, I think

0:20:01.119 --> 0:20:02.919
<v Speaker 3>it costs you five cents or so to trade a

0:20:02.960 --> 0:20:05.600
<v Speaker 3>share a stock. So this is all part of the

0:20:05.640 --> 0:20:09.840
<v Speaker 3>evolution of the capital markets, and the trend to staying

0:20:09.920 --> 0:20:13.520
<v Speaker 3>private is substantial. Now. Having said that, we took at

0:20:13.520 --> 0:20:16.240
<v Speaker 3>Carlisle in the past six months, we took three companies public.

0:20:16.280 --> 0:20:18.320
<v Speaker 3>We took Standard a Republic in the United States, which

0:20:18.359 --> 0:20:22.720
<v Speaker 3>is an aerospace defense MRO, and that was the third

0:20:22.760 --> 0:20:25.639
<v Speaker 3>largest IPO of the year. We did the largest private

0:20:25.640 --> 0:20:29.720
<v Speaker 3>equity held IPO in India a few weeks ago, Hexaware,

0:20:31.400 --> 0:20:35.360
<v Speaker 3>and then we did the largest ever privately held company

0:20:35.400 --> 0:20:38.679
<v Speaker 3>IPO in Japan last year with Goaku. So the public

0:20:38.680 --> 0:20:42.320
<v Speaker 3>markets are still a fantastic opportunity to provide capital, but

0:20:42.440 --> 0:20:45.800
<v Speaker 3>the option to stay private for longer exists. But the

0:20:45.880 --> 0:20:49.320
<v Speaker 3>capital that's coming in is creating the opportunity. Obviously, then

0:20:49.359 --> 0:20:50.560
<v Speaker 3>you get this flywhee effect.

0:20:51.040 --> 0:20:53.680
<v Speaker 2>And to put some numbers on at the famous Wilshire

0:20:53.760 --> 0:20:57.440
<v Speaker 2>five thousand is about thirty four hundred stocks, right, Yeah,

0:20:57.240 --> 0:21:01.600
<v Speaker 2>So let's talk about the different areas of opportunity. You

0:21:01.680 --> 0:21:05.199
<v Speaker 2>guys are active in growth equity and private credit and

0:21:05.280 --> 0:21:08.679
<v Speaker 2>private debt, of which there is a slight difference, and

0:21:08.760 --> 0:21:12.040
<v Speaker 2>of course private equity. Tell us about the big growth

0:21:12.080 --> 0:21:16.560
<v Speaker 2>areas that Carlisle sees as an opportunity, and tell the

0:21:16.640 --> 0:21:21.160
<v Speaker 2>advisor sitting in the audience what the sort of outlook

0:21:21.280 --> 0:21:24.560
<v Speaker 2>is for this space relative to what we've been seeing

0:21:24.800 --> 0:21:28.240
<v Speaker 2>in certainly in public credit, and if you want to

0:21:28.240 --> 0:21:31.440
<v Speaker 2>talk about public markets, you can. That's the cherry on top.

0:21:31.840 --> 0:21:34.840
<v Speaker 3>Yeah. So I think again for everybody here, for the

0:21:34.880 --> 0:21:38.440
<v Speaker 3>wealth advisors here, I don't do what you do. And

0:21:38.560 --> 0:21:41.360
<v Speaker 3>as I said earlier, I was kind of uniquely bad

0:21:41.359 --> 0:21:43.359
<v Speaker 3>at it back in nineteen eighty seven, and not that

0:21:43.359 --> 0:21:46.080
<v Speaker 3>that was the same thing. But if you can't sell

0:21:46.160 --> 0:21:48.760
<v Speaker 3>tax free municipal bonds at twelve percent tax free, you're

0:21:48.760 --> 0:21:50.040
<v Speaker 3>pretty uniquely bad at something.

0:21:50.280 --> 0:21:52.720
<v Speaker 2>Let me let me interrupt you. I have this vision

0:21:52.800 --> 0:21:56.040
<v Speaker 2>of you cold calling people. Hey, it's Harvey Schwartz. Market's

0:21:56.080 --> 0:21:59.119
<v Speaker 2>down twenty two percent today, great entry point. Can I

0:21:59.160 --> 0:21:59.960
<v Speaker 2>buy you some stuff?

0:22:00.560 --> 0:22:03.800
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, you did what you had to do. I think

0:22:03.840 --> 0:22:05.520
<v Speaker 3>the most the most dials I ever made was five

0:22:05.560 --> 0:22:09.480
<v Speaker 3>hundred and eight uh in a day with not a

0:22:09.520 --> 0:22:15.520
<v Speaker 3>lot of yield. But I would say that just like

0:22:15.760 --> 0:22:17.919
<v Speaker 3>certain stocks are not great for every client on the

0:22:17.920 --> 0:22:21.560
<v Speaker 3>well side, and certain other forms of investment are not

0:22:21.600 --> 0:22:24.919
<v Speaker 3>great for your your wealth clients, I think you have

0:22:24.960 --> 0:22:26.800
<v Speaker 3>to first make a determination about whether or not this

0:22:26.880 --> 0:22:28.400
<v Speaker 3>is appropriate for your client and where does it fit

0:22:28.440 --> 0:22:33.679
<v Speaker 3>into your toolkit. I think that there is a really

0:22:33.760 --> 0:22:37.760
<v Speaker 3>unique role, whether it's in asset based finance, which is

0:22:37.760 --> 0:22:41.960
<v Speaker 3>a very fast growing section of the marketplace. We did

0:22:42.000 --> 0:22:46.679
<v Speaker 3>the largest transaction last year discover Card, which is an

0:22:46.680 --> 0:22:50.199
<v Speaker 3>asset based finance transaction. Whether it's that part of the market,

0:22:50.440 --> 0:22:53.800
<v Speaker 3>or how insurance companies are coming into the marketplace, or

0:22:53.840 --> 0:22:56.560
<v Speaker 3>whether your clients have an interest in getting access to

0:22:56.640 --> 0:23:01.080
<v Speaker 3>Japan where we raised the fund last year, or if

0:23:01.119 --> 0:23:05.520
<v Speaker 3>your interest, for example, is shifting to defense. One of

0:23:05.560 --> 0:23:08.399
<v Speaker 3>the first transactions Carver did Carlo Ever did in nineteen

0:23:08.480 --> 0:23:11.560
<v Speaker 3>ninety was in the defense sector. We've been doing this

0:23:11.600 --> 0:23:15.800
<v Speaker 3>for over thirty years. You wouldn't have necessarily said five

0:23:15.880 --> 0:23:18.399
<v Speaker 3>years ago this would be the topic around the world

0:23:18.680 --> 0:23:22.159
<v Speaker 3>given what's happening geopolitically, Europe now committing to spend a

0:23:22.240 --> 0:23:25.440
<v Speaker 3>trillion dollars. What does this mean the US has to

0:23:25.520 --> 0:23:30.040
<v Speaker 3>replace their supplies, our supplies. And so I do think

0:23:30.119 --> 0:23:34.040
<v Speaker 3>that the capital demand is so high. And while we

0:23:34.160 --> 0:23:37.760
<v Speaker 3>tend to focus a lot on wealth in the United States,

0:23:38.520 --> 0:23:40.040
<v Speaker 3>because I do think the United States has been the

0:23:40.160 --> 0:23:43.120
<v Speaker 3>leader in terms of private market adoption, I can tell

0:23:43.119 --> 0:23:47.160
<v Speaker 3>you everyone in the world I go wealth is focused

0:23:47.200 --> 0:23:49.280
<v Speaker 3>on this space. Half of all the assets in the

0:23:49.320 --> 0:23:52.920
<v Speaker 3>world are controlled by wealth, the other half by institutions.

0:23:53.000 --> 0:23:55.960
<v Speaker 3>Institutions have been participating in private capital for as long

0:23:55.960 --> 0:24:00.000
<v Speaker 3>as we can remember, and so this shift feels quite now.

0:24:00.720 --> 0:24:02.720
<v Speaker 3>I just think as an industry we have to be really,

0:24:02.760 --> 0:24:06.000
<v Speaker 3>really thoughtful about making sure that your clients in the

0:24:06.119 --> 0:24:09.479
<v Speaker 3>end they that we all on our side and are

0:24:09.520 --> 0:24:12.080
<v Speaker 3>part of the industry. What we say we do, we

0:24:12.200 --> 0:24:14.320
<v Speaker 3>delivered to you. So you delivered to your clients. Because

0:24:14.320 --> 0:24:16.040
<v Speaker 3>I do think this is we're in the early days

0:24:16.080 --> 0:24:17.840
<v Speaker 3>of a transformative capital shift.

0:24:18.560 --> 0:24:21.520
<v Speaker 2>So let's talk a little bit about private credit, which

0:24:21.520 --> 0:24:25.719
<v Speaker 2>has been one of the key growth drivers of Carlisle

0:24:25.800 --> 0:24:27.879
<v Speaker 2>as well as the whole private side. What are you

0:24:27.920 --> 0:24:31.080
<v Speaker 2>seeing there, what's the future look like in terms of

0:24:31.200 --> 0:24:34.480
<v Speaker 2>the business, and I'm not asking you for a rate forecast.

0:24:34.800 --> 0:24:38.560
<v Speaker 2>How do you see that business developing? And what can

0:24:38.720 --> 0:24:40.480
<v Speaker 2>our clients do to participate?

0:24:40.920 --> 0:24:44.280
<v Speaker 3>So I would say, well, first of all, the Carlisle

0:24:45.200 --> 0:24:47.639
<v Speaker 3>Carlisle Insurance credit platform is the largest part of the

0:24:47.640 --> 0:24:50.240
<v Speaker 3>business today, which most people are surprised by because of

0:24:50.240 --> 0:24:53.240
<v Speaker 3>the history and private equity. That's the largest portion of

0:24:53.240 --> 0:24:55.920
<v Speaker 3>our business almost two hundred billion in assets. We're the

0:24:56.000 --> 0:25:01.159
<v Speaker 3>largest COLO Manager super proud of the team. They just

0:25:01.200 --> 0:25:03.520
<v Speaker 3>were awarded COLO Manager of the year, it's about fifty

0:25:03.520 --> 0:25:06.000
<v Speaker 3>billion of assets. So we've been in this business for

0:25:06.040 --> 0:25:11.080
<v Speaker 3>quite a long time. I would say that first, I

0:25:11.080 --> 0:25:13.640
<v Speaker 3>think we should dismiss what I think are some misunderstandings

0:25:13.760 --> 0:25:17.239
<v Speaker 3>about private credit. There's a lot of discussion about the

0:25:17.280 --> 0:25:23.159
<v Speaker 3>growth of private credit being potentially systemically risky. I actually

0:25:23.160 --> 0:25:26.560
<v Speaker 3>think the distribution of capital across private credit banks and

0:25:26.600 --> 0:25:30.720
<v Speaker 3>other providers of capital actually is systemically reducing, not increasing.

0:25:31.800 --> 0:25:33.680
<v Speaker 3>But I think that debate is kind of that discussion

0:25:33.680 --> 0:25:37.080
<v Speaker 3>has kind of been tested. Right. We went through Silicon

0:25:37.160 --> 0:25:39.640
<v Speaker 3>Valley Bank. We went through nearly five hundred basis points

0:25:39.640 --> 0:25:43.040
<v Speaker 3>of raised in interest rates and increases by the FED,

0:25:43.400 --> 0:25:46.280
<v Speaker 3>and private credit has been quite durable. I think when

0:25:46.280 --> 0:25:47.920
<v Speaker 3>you have a lot of capital going into a space,

0:25:47.960 --> 0:25:50.399
<v Speaker 3>you have to ask yourself, are the people who are

0:25:50.440 --> 0:25:55.439
<v Speaker 3>storing that capital making the marginal capital commitment thoughtfully or

0:25:55.480 --> 0:25:57.520
<v Speaker 3>is there too much capital? But I think that's about

0:25:57.560 --> 0:26:01.840
<v Speaker 3>a performance question, not as systemically risky question. And so

0:26:02.560 --> 0:26:06.480
<v Speaker 3>I think that again, if you think about the trajectory

0:26:06.520 --> 0:26:10.960
<v Speaker 3>of how capital evolves, it really evolves over decades. Barry. Now,

0:26:11.000 --> 0:26:16.560
<v Speaker 3>there's a lot of excitement in alternatives, and particularly for

0:26:16.720 --> 0:26:20.320
<v Speaker 3>the largest firms like ourselves because it's a growth area.

0:26:20.600 --> 0:26:24.240
<v Speaker 3>Having a global footprint allows you those opportunities. But our

0:26:24.240 --> 0:26:26.760
<v Speaker 3>team is seeing opportunities all around the world to deploy credit,

0:26:27.280 --> 0:26:32.000
<v Speaker 3>and actually, even before this sort of potential stimulus resurgence

0:26:32.000 --> 0:26:35.120
<v Speaker 3>in Europe, we were already seeing I would say, at

0:26:35.119 --> 0:26:38.000
<v Speaker 3>the margin, more opportunities to deploy credit in Europe than

0:26:38.040 --> 0:26:40.919
<v Speaker 3>in the US. Now at Carlisle you can all avail

0:26:40.960 --> 0:26:44.480
<v Speaker 3>yourself of c Tech, which is basically the best of

0:26:44.560 --> 0:26:49.399
<v Speaker 3>credit at Carlisle across a spectrum. And again Zach can

0:26:49.400 --> 0:26:52.800
<v Speaker 3>give you all the details after the show. But I'm

0:26:52.840 --> 0:26:55.840
<v Speaker 3>a customer. I on Sea Tech and I keep adding

0:26:55.840 --> 0:27:01.520
<v Speaker 3>to it, and so I think the opportunities are extensive.

0:27:02.119 --> 0:27:06.560
<v Speaker 3>I do think for again, generically for the audience, I

0:27:06.600 --> 0:27:09.679
<v Speaker 3>think picking vintages is not necessarily the smartest thing, just

0:27:09.720 --> 0:27:12.199
<v Speaker 3>like I don't think actually picking heis and lows in

0:27:12.200 --> 0:27:13.680
<v Speaker 3>the stock market is the easiest thing to do. And

0:27:13.720 --> 0:27:15.480
<v Speaker 3>I think if you're going to be a participant, you

0:27:15.520 --> 0:27:16.920
<v Speaker 3>want to be a participant over time.

0:27:17.720 --> 0:27:21.439
<v Speaker 2>So I'm glad you brought up the FED raising interest

0:27:21.520 --> 0:27:25.080
<v Speaker 2>rates five hundred basis points in a year really being

0:27:25.240 --> 0:27:29.320
<v Speaker 2>a disruption. You have a unique perch to look out

0:27:29.760 --> 0:27:35.159
<v Speaker 2>over public equity, private equity, public credit, private credit. I

0:27:35.200 --> 0:27:39.960
<v Speaker 2>got to ask, it seems like everybody misinterpreted what the

0:27:40.000 --> 0:27:42.560
<v Speaker 2>Fed was doing, how they were going to do. There

0:27:42.600 --> 0:27:45.280
<v Speaker 2>was just an endless parade of forecasts. One of them

0:27:45.440 --> 0:27:48.880
<v Speaker 2>was one hundred percent chance of recession in twenty twenty three.

0:27:51.000 --> 0:27:53.520
<v Speaker 2>Why do you think so many people got what the

0:27:53.560 --> 0:27:57.080
<v Speaker 2>Fed did wrong? And how much or how little do

0:27:57.160 --> 0:28:02.480
<v Speaker 2>you care about short term shifts in federal reserve rates?

0:28:02.720 --> 0:28:05.560
<v Speaker 3>Okay, so a lot in that question, So let me

0:28:05.720 --> 0:28:10.359
<v Speaker 3>unpack it a bit. So first, for those who don't know,

0:28:10.400 --> 0:28:14.919
<v Speaker 3>there's some incredible content that comes out of Carlisle based

0:28:14.920 --> 0:28:18.399
<v Speaker 3>on our unique portfolio. So up until recently we just

0:28:18.440 --> 0:28:20.240
<v Speaker 3>sold a couple of companies. We had close to a

0:28:20.280 --> 0:28:23.439
<v Speaker 3>million employees in our portfolio companies around the world, and

0:28:23.480 --> 0:28:25.159
<v Speaker 3>we roll up all that data. So it gives us

0:28:25.200 --> 0:28:28.600
<v Speaker 3>a very very unique perch into looking at what is

0:28:28.640 --> 0:28:31.800
<v Speaker 3>happening in the economy. And this is across all industries globally.

0:28:32.040 --> 0:28:33.639
<v Speaker 3>So I'm going to come back to that in a second.

0:28:33.640 --> 0:28:35.480
<v Speaker 3>But as a result, we're able to put out some

0:28:35.520 --> 0:28:38.360
<v Speaker 3>amazing content. You know, you mentioned, David, for those of

0:28:38.360 --> 0:28:40.880
<v Speaker 3>you arenor on it. David puts out something called from

0:28:40.960 --> 0:28:45.240
<v Speaker 3>David's Desk. He wrote this amazing document recently about pandas.

0:28:45.560 --> 0:28:47.840
<v Speaker 3>I know that seems a little far field, but all

0:28:47.880 --> 0:28:50.160
<v Speaker 3>your clients would love it. It's extraordinary. Did you know

0:28:50.200 --> 0:28:52.280
<v Speaker 3>that are panda's like the side when it's born is

0:28:52.360 --> 0:28:54.040
<v Speaker 3>the size of a stick of butter? If you read

0:28:54.080 --> 0:28:56.520
<v Speaker 3>David's piece on pandas. By the way, he's sponsored all

0:28:56.520 --> 0:28:58.800
<v Speaker 3>the pandas to your point that have come in from

0:28:58.880 --> 0:29:00.920
<v Speaker 3>China over the past I think decade. He pays for

0:29:00.960 --> 0:29:03.080
<v Speaker 3>the he pays the fees for the pandas to come

0:29:03.120 --> 0:29:08.040
<v Speaker 3>to America. Jason Thomas is our lead economist and strategist.

0:29:08.640 --> 0:29:11.719
<v Speaker 3>Jason puts out Carlisle Compass and I'm going to come

0:29:11.720 --> 0:29:13.280
<v Speaker 3>back to Jason in a second. And then we have

0:29:14.400 --> 0:29:17.200
<v Speaker 3>Admiral stap Ridez who does all the geopolitical work and

0:29:17.240 --> 0:29:20.800
<v Speaker 3>has a leadership series that he puts out, and he's

0:29:20.840 --> 0:29:23.280
<v Speaker 3>a partner at the firm. Why do I mention Jason?

0:29:23.680 --> 0:29:25.840
<v Speaker 3>Jason rolls up all these KPIs. And if you've been

0:29:25.840 --> 0:29:28.080
<v Speaker 3>reading Jason's material since I showed up at Carlisle two

0:29:28.120 --> 0:29:30.040
<v Speaker 3>years ago, he was one of the few, if not

0:29:30.080 --> 0:29:32.440
<v Speaker 3>the only one barrier that was saying, the FED is

0:29:32.440 --> 0:29:34.920
<v Speaker 3>going to keep rates where they are, and he has

0:29:35.040 --> 0:29:38.080
<v Speaker 3>nailed it. Now, he's nailed it because he's brilliant. I'm

0:29:38.120 --> 0:29:40.920
<v Speaker 3>honored that he's my partner. But he also has all

0:29:40.960 --> 0:29:43.760
<v Speaker 3>this data, and so when we roll up the data,

0:29:44.240 --> 0:29:46.640
<v Speaker 3>we get the look inside what's happening in terms of

0:29:48.560 --> 0:29:52.880
<v Speaker 3>portfolio company behavior, what's happening with input prices. So we

0:29:52.920 --> 0:29:55.600
<v Speaker 3>could see months in advance, if there was like a

0:29:55.640 --> 0:29:59.160
<v Speaker 3>one dollar input item when it was the supply chain problem,

0:29:59.280 --> 0:30:02.360
<v Speaker 3>if that went to two dollars in many cases it did. Right,

0:30:02.360 --> 0:30:05.000
<v Speaker 3>so we all see headline inflation when it was seven

0:30:05.040 --> 0:30:07.320
<v Speaker 3>eight nine percent, but there were input prices that were

0:30:07.320 --> 0:30:09.880
<v Speaker 3>going up fifty sixty eighty percent, and then we could

0:30:09.880 --> 0:30:12.800
<v Speaker 3>see that come off. So now to cut to your question,

0:30:14.000 --> 0:30:17.200
<v Speaker 3>coming into the beginning of this year, all the signals

0:30:17.240 --> 0:30:21.480
<v Speaker 3>were quite positive. We had EBITDAH growth across all the

0:30:21.480 --> 0:30:24.040
<v Speaker 3>portfolio companies in the US. It was up something like

0:30:24.080 --> 0:30:28.680
<v Speaker 3>fifteen percent. Last year. Our portfolio values went up by

0:30:28.840 --> 0:30:32.520
<v Speaker 3>billions because the global economy and the economy in the

0:30:32.600 --> 0:30:36.400
<v Speaker 3>US was so strong, and we were still saying rates

0:30:36.400 --> 0:30:39.600
<v Speaker 3>wouldn't come down. Now the market's caught up to that, okay.

0:30:39.920 --> 0:30:42.800
<v Speaker 3>I would say, now it's a question of with the

0:30:42.840 --> 0:30:46.880
<v Speaker 3>new administration, how do the policies ultimately take effect. I

0:30:46.880 --> 0:30:49.400
<v Speaker 3>think it's more difficult to say at this exact stage

0:30:49.400 --> 0:30:52.160
<v Speaker 3>what FED behavior will mean. I also would say, like

0:30:52.160 --> 0:30:54.440
<v Speaker 3>for example, in the January February data, what we're seeing

0:30:54.480 --> 0:30:57.320
<v Speaker 3>is what you'd expect we would see. We saw, for example,

0:30:57.680 --> 0:31:01.920
<v Speaker 3>a lot of immediate purchasing in advance of potential tariffs.

0:31:02.360 --> 0:31:04.480
<v Speaker 3>If you look at the Purchasing Managers index, I think

0:31:04.760 --> 0:31:09.160
<v Speaker 3>the component of inventories was up four percent. That's all

0:31:09.400 --> 0:31:12.280
<v Speaker 3>managers doing, all businesses doing what you think they would do.

0:31:12.440 --> 0:31:14.080
<v Speaker 3>They're basically saying, hey, prices are going to go in

0:31:14.120 --> 0:31:15.880
<v Speaker 3>the future, I'm going to buy now, which of course

0:31:15.920 --> 0:31:21.320
<v Speaker 3>brings price acceleration into the present. But right now we're

0:31:21.360 --> 0:31:26.160
<v Speaker 3>not seeing any marginal demand destruction. The data still looks

0:31:26.240 --> 0:31:29.240
<v Speaker 3>quite positive, and so we would believe that rates should

0:31:29.240 --> 0:31:32.760
<v Speaker 3>stay stable higher. But we really have to see ultimately

0:31:32.760 --> 0:31:38.000
<v Speaker 3>how the combination of tax policy, deregulation, tariffs, how all

0:31:38.080 --> 0:31:42.280
<v Speaker 3>this comes together. And I would say we're just at

0:31:42.280 --> 0:31:46.320
<v Speaker 3>an environment now with much more increased uncertainty and I

0:31:46.320 --> 0:31:48.640
<v Speaker 3>think when we came in the new administration, I think

0:31:48.640 --> 0:31:51.280
<v Speaker 3>there was this real sense of, hey, we have certainty.

0:31:51.920 --> 0:31:55.080
<v Speaker 3>We got through an election with certainty. Then we had okay,

0:31:55.080 --> 0:31:58.160
<v Speaker 3>we're going to get tax policy, deregulation, very pro business agenda.

0:31:58.800 --> 0:32:02.000
<v Speaker 3>And now it's sort of the conversation been consumed by

0:32:02.040 --> 0:32:05.520
<v Speaker 3>Tariff's uncertainty and obviously a lot of geopolitical uncertainty still.

0:32:05.560 --> 0:32:07.800
<v Speaker 3>And so I just think uncertainty is dominating the dialogue

0:32:07.840 --> 0:32:10.120
<v Speaker 3>right now, but we're not seeing it in the portfolio companies.

0:32:10.680 --> 0:32:14.719
<v Speaker 2>Makes a lot of sense. Last question, on the private side,

0:32:15.400 --> 0:32:19.719
<v Speaker 2>the expectations are that private equity, private credit as an

0:32:19.760 --> 0:32:23.680
<v Speaker 2>asset class. End of the decade, you can choose your

0:32:24.080 --> 0:32:28.760
<v Speaker 2>preferred estimate two point seventy five trillion, three trillion. I've

0:32:28.800 --> 0:32:32.640
<v Speaker 2>even seen above that. How do you see the space

0:32:32.680 --> 0:32:35.400
<v Speaker 2>that the waters that you guys ply in, How do

0:32:35.440 --> 0:32:39.720
<v Speaker 2>you see the growth continuing? Are we getting close to

0:32:39.720 --> 0:32:42.160
<v Speaker 2>topping out or is this still early innings?

0:32:43.240 --> 0:32:45.520
<v Speaker 3>No? Well, I think for the industry again, and we're

0:32:45.520 --> 0:32:49.880
<v Speaker 3>talking about an industry that's been around for forty years,

0:32:50.240 --> 0:32:53.320
<v Speaker 3>so in the scheme of economic history and business development,

0:32:53.840 --> 0:32:58.640
<v Speaker 3>it's quite short. And of course private credit. That's a

0:32:58.880 --> 0:33:02.920
<v Speaker 3>fifteen a teen, twenty year phenomenon. Even a shorter period.

0:33:03.400 --> 0:33:06.040
<v Speaker 3>Asset based finance becoming a big part of the industry

0:33:06.200 --> 0:33:11.000
<v Speaker 3>is an even more a newer phenomenon. I think a

0:33:11.040 --> 0:33:15.040
<v Speaker 3>lot of it will depend on really what does happen

0:33:15.080 --> 0:33:17.960
<v Speaker 3>with wealth. That is the pool of capital that's now

0:33:18.000 --> 0:33:21.760
<v Speaker 3>coming in, and I think it will continue to drive opportunities.

0:33:22.440 --> 0:33:26.160
<v Speaker 3>It will be super efficient the more capital is available

0:33:26.160 --> 0:33:29.280
<v Speaker 3>to the market, and companies will continue to take advantage

0:33:29.280 --> 0:33:32.080
<v Speaker 3>of it. So again, companies don't decide to stay private

0:33:32.360 --> 0:33:34.600
<v Speaker 3>because they just love being private. They decide to stay

0:33:34.600 --> 0:33:37.080
<v Speaker 3>private because they may like being private, but also because

0:33:37.120 --> 0:33:38.720
<v Speaker 3>it's the most efficient way for them to grow and

0:33:38.760 --> 0:33:41.640
<v Speaker 3>the most efficient way for them to source capital. This audience,

0:33:42.360 --> 0:33:45.200
<v Speaker 3>if any of these numbers come true, I've seen numbers

0:33:45.200 --> 0:33:47.240
<v Speaker 3>as big as ten trillion over the next ten years

0:33:47.400 --> 0:33:50.480
<v Speaker 3>ten percent. If any of those numbers are even remotely accurate,

0:33:51.200 --> 0:33:53.200
<v Speaker 3>the space will continue to grow. Now you're going to

0:33:53.320 --> 0:33:57.920
<v Speaker 3>need scale, sourcing, opportunity, reputation. We have to deliver on

0:33:57.960 --> 0:34:00.640
<v Speaker 3>what we say we're going to do. Technology we haven't

0:34:00.640 --> 0:34:02.280
<v Speaker 3>even talked about. We could do a whole session on

0:34:02.320 --> 0:34:05.320
<v Speaker 3>that technology. You have to be able to deploy technology

0:34:05.360 --> 0:34:08.279
<v Speaker 3>in very unique ways, especially with AI. So I think

0:34:08.320 --> 0:34:11.720
<v Speaker 3>this is going to continue to grow. It won't always

0:34:11.760 --> 0:34:14.920
<v Speaker 3>be perfect, but I do think again this audience at

0:34:14.960 --> 0:34:17.799
<v Speaker 3>the margin will shape the nature of private capital for

0:34:17.800 --> 0:34:18.680
<v Speaker 3>the next decade.

0:34:18.800 --> 0:34:22.160
<v Speaker 2>That was my conversation with Harvey Schwartz, CEO of the

0:34:22.200 --> 0:34:25.600
<v Speaker 2>Carlisle Group. We're going to bring him into the studio

0:34:26.600 --> 0:34:29.880
<v Speaker 2>for a full treatment for the full masters and business

0:34:29.960 --> 0:34:33.320
<v Speaker 2>conversation where we're not fighting the sun and the winds.

0:34:33.960 --> 0:34:36.640
<v Speaker 2>It was really fun chatting with him. I learned a

0:34:36.680 --> 0:34:39.919
<v Speaker 2>lot about him and about Carlisle. There are a whole

0:34:40.000 --> 0:34:43.520
<v Speaker 2>bunch more questions I'm really excited to ask him. Special

0:34:43.600 --> 0:34:48.399
<v Speaker 2>thanks to Matt Middleton of Advisor Circle for helping put

0:34:48.440 --> 0:34:52.200
<v Speaker 2>this together. It really was a blast. If you enjoy

0:34:52.280 --> 0:34:54.400
<v Speaker 2>this conversation, well, be sure and check out any of

0:34:54.400 --> 0:34:57.400
<v Speaker 2>the previous five hundred or so we've done over the

0:34:57.440 --> 0:35:02.760
<v Speaker 2>past ten years. You can find those that Bloomberg, iTunes, Spotify, YouTube,

0:35:02.800 --> 0:35:06.560
<v Speaker 2>wherever you get your favorite podcasts. Be sure and check

0:35:06.600 --> 0:35:10.040
<v Speaker 2>out my new book, How Not to Invest The ideas,

0:35:10.160 --> 0:35:14.000
<v Speaker 2>numbers and behaviors that destroy wealth and how to avoid them.

0:35:14.320 --> 0:35:18.200
<v Speaker 2>I'm Barry Radhaults. You're listening to Masters of business on

0:35:18.400 --> 0:35:19.400
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Radio.