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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then proudo with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Painting out of four buckets Today, there's a lot going

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Speaker 2: on around here. Presidential debates, primary results, an Israel vote

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Speaker 2: in the House today, and of course CPI Day. We're

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Speaker 2: going to knock down all of these stories with some

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Speaker 2: of the smartest minds in politics and economics over the

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Speaker 2: next hour, and glad you're with us as we begin

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Speaker 2: with data this morning at eight thirty. Suddenly everyone feeling

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Speaker 2: pretty good about things as I read the headline of

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Speaker 2: the terminal US inflation EBBS for first time in six

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Speaker 2: months in relief for FED. This is the headline that

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Speaker 2: so many have been hoping for. But let's look under

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Speaker 2: the hood, because the headline does not always tell the

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Speaker 2: whole story. Mark Hamrick joins us Now bank Rate Washington

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Speaker 2: Bureau chief with his take on this market. It's good

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Speaker 2: to have you back. Is the euphoria justified?

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Speaker 3: It's going to be with you, Joe. I think David

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Speaker 3: Kelly summed that up well in the earlier SoundBite, in

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Speaker 3: the sense that we did not suffer another negative surprise here,

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Speaker 3: and so just to have things show up essentially in

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Speaker 3: line with expectations feels like a moral victory. But as

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Speaker 3: we sort of think about this battle against inflation, the

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Speaker 3: battle continues and we cannot say that victory is declared.

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Speaker 3: But you'll take the wins when you can get them.

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Speaker 3: And of course, you know, if we're thinking about the

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Speaker 3: prospect of a raid hike around September, there's a heck

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Speaker 3: of a lot of things that need to happen between

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Speaker 3: now and then, including statistical data releases.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, now you meant hike or cut, because people have

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Speaker 2: been talking about both.

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Speaker 4: Mark Well.

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Speaker 3: Chairman Palse is not talking about a rate hike, and

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Speaker 3: so I think we probably need to follow his lead

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Speaker 3: on that unless we get some truly remarkable surprise, and

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Speaker 3: so we're talking about a rate cut. And I think

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Speaker 3: that as we've either been part of these discussions, Joe

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Speaker 3: or listen to them more broadly, I think part of

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Speaker 3: this is trying to keep some things in perspective, and

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Speaker 3: part of that also is to acknowledge high degrees of

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Speaker 3: uncertainty between then and now the world can change quickly.

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Speaker 3: The other part is that higher for longer, which is

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Speaker 3: sort of the baseline expectation for interest rates these days,

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Speaker 3: can persist beyond the first rate cut. So what is

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Speaker 3: the destination? And we'll have a better idea about that,

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Speaker 3: you know, as we move along that journey as well.

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Speaker 3: Another way of saying that, compared to what happened before

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Speaker 3: the pandemic, it's probably a good expectation, in other words,

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Speaker 3: a smart expectation or assumption to say that rates will

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Speaker 3: remain elevated for the foreseeable future, but just not as

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Speaker 3: high as they have been or are right now.

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Speaker 2: Spending time with Mark Hamrick at bank rate, we're going

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Speaker 2: to have to start seeing two tenths, right, maybe one tenth.

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Speaker 2: We've got to start getting down to lower numbers here

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Speaker 2: before we can have a real conversation about rate cuts. Right,

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Speaker 2: we're celebrating point three instead of point four. But these

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Speaker 2: need to start going lower.

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Speaker 3: They do if only to sort of meet the Federal

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Speaker 3: Reserves expectations for its preferred inflation gauge, personal consumption expenditures

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Speaker 3: and core And so could that happen short. I think

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Speaker 3: that you know, as was mentioned earlier, as we see

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Speaker 3: consumers spending, as we see consumers saying no to a

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Speaker 3: lot of prospective purchases, trading down where they are accepting

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Speaker 3: the terms of those purchases, and in the marketplace perhaps

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Speaker 3: setting prices at lower levels. I think we're seeing some

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Speaker 3: weakness now and automobile sales which are showing up on

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Speaker 3: dealer lots. They have essentially a couple of ways to

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Speaker 3: respond to that, including price. Affordability is really the other

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Speaker 3: watchword of our day, because we talk about inflation being

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Speaker 3: this dynamic that's been present for more than two years

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Speaker 3: in a significant way, but affordability or lack thereof, is

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Speaker 3: really the end result of that, and that's the thing

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Speaker 3: that so many people are struggling against.

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Speaker 2: Really interesting to hear some of the anecdotal evidence as

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Speaker 2: well from earnings reporting season, Mark, and I know this

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Speaker 2: doesn't qualify as data for someone like yourself, but when

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Speaker 2: you hear Starbucks talking about people trading down or not

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Speaker 2: buying that expensive cup of coffee the way they were

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Speaker 2: a couple of months ago, when you hear McDonald's in

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Speaker 2: that same reporting season say the same thing, they're trying

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Speaker 2: to work on a five dollars value meal to keep

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Speaker 2: people coming into the restaurant. How do you add that

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Speaker 2: to the composite of data that's going to prompt the

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Speaker 2: FED one way or the other.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's color right, And I think, you know, these

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Speaker 3: are data points. They're not government you know, statistical data,

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Speaker 3: but they are data points. And I literally did write

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Speaker 3: down that five dollars meal thing on my sort of

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Speaker 3: omnibus notepad this morning because I think that's sort of

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Speaker 3: how this presented itself is presenting itself. You know, if

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Speaker 3: you can't get people to pay let's say, you know,

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Speaker 3: nine dollars per meal at a McDonald's, then you have

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Speaker 3: to adjust because ultimately, unless we're on the road, these

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Speaker 3: are discretionary purchases right in the words, you do not

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Speaker 3: have to go get that four dollars twenty five cent

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Speaker 3: coffee that you could make at home for significantly less

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Speaker 3: than that, And that's where it becomes almost a luxury.

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Speaker 3: And I think that's where consumers are drawing their own

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Speaker 3: lines on that. I've done it in the past several

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Speaker 3: days myself, where you know, we had Mother's Day last weekend.

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Speaker 3: I opted against the beef to put on the grill.

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Speaker 3: Went for the chicken instead, And you know, I was

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Speaker 3: more satisfied with the latter purchase.

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Speaker 5: Than I would have been with the former.

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Speaker 2: I get that.

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Speaker 1: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: Next year, maybe take mom for the five dollar value,

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Speaker 2: mel I think.

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Speaker 5: That's We'll see how that goes over.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's good to have you back. Mark Hamrick with

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Speaker 2: his instant read on CPI, the Bank Rate Washington Bureau

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Speaker 2: Chief with us here on balance of power. We'll hit

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Speaker 2: this data as we work through the program. If only

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Speaker 2: in our market checks. This is going over real well

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Speaker 2: on Wall Street and Charlie Pellett. We'll breathe some life

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Speaker 2: into that for us a little bit later on, As

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Speaker 2: I mentioned, four buckets were painting at it today. We

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Speaker 2: just went through one with CPI. The other is a

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Speaker 2: looming vote today in the House on a piece of legislation,

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Speaker 2: a resolution that will essentially call everyone on the carpet

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Speaker 2: when it comes to our policy in Israel. This follows,

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Speaker 2: of course. You remember we had a lot of talk

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Speaker 2: about this last week, Joe Biden's decision to withhold some

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Speaker 2: weapons shipments from Israel that prompted the Speaker of the

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Speaker 2: House and Republican leadership to bring this resolution to the

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Speaker 2: floor to compel the President to continue supporting Israel. And

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Speaker 2: the whipping right now is looking interesting. We're hearing that

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Speaker 2: as many as thirty or forty Democrats could break away

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Speaker 2: from the White House to vote for this resolution. Everybody's

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Speaker 2: trying to cover themselves here in an election cycle. So

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Speaker 2: we talk about the policy in Israel. There's also big

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Speaker 2: news coming out of Ukraine, and that's why we wanted

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Speaker 2: to spend some time with Michael Allen, who's just made

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Speaker 2: his way across town from Beacon Global Strategies. It's great

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Speaker 2: to see you, sir, Welcome back to Bloomberg. You, of course,

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Speaker 2: former Special Assistant to the President, former Senior Director Counterproliferation Strategy,

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Speaker 2: National Security Council. Your experience is important to us here.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with Israel right now, because I'm having a

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Speaker 2: hard time telling what's going on. Last week, we're telling

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Speaker 2: everybody about these two thousand pound bombs that the President

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Speaker 2: was withholding, But the headline this morning is he's working

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Speaker 2: up a new billion dollar weapons package even as this

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Speaker 2: vote takes place to essentially condemn his decision last week.

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Speaker 2: How do you rationalize all of these at once.

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Speaker 6: So it's very confusing. I mean it even goes back farther.

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Speaker 6: We just appropriated another fourteen billion dollars to go to Israel,

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Speaker 6: and we say act in your own self defense. But

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Speaker 6: yet we're saying with the other hand, we're going to

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Speaker 6: deny you some arms. It's especially confusing this week, though,

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Speaker 6: I think that real answer is a boring, bureaucratic answer

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Speaker 6: that some of these things have been in the pipeline

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Speaker 6: and they're multiple times for Congress and the administration to

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Speaker 6: sort of say these things are ready to go. But

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Speaker 6: it must infuriate them from a strategic messaging standpoint, because

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Speaker 6: it looks like they're trying to to, on the one hand,

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Speaker 6: limit what BB's doing in RAFA by saying no more

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Speaker 6: offensive weapons while reassuring everyone, well, there's more long term

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Speaker 6: stuff on the way. So it's really confusing, and I

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Speaker 6: wouldn't blame anybody for trying to say, what is the

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Speaker 6: Biden policy?

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Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you interesting insights from General David Petraeus,

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Speaker 2: retired General, back from the Cutter Economic Forum, where he

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Speaker 2: sat down with our editor in chief John mckelthwaite to

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Speaker 2: talk about what it is to go after Hamas, remembering,

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Speaker 2: of course, his experience in the Middle East fighting the Taliban.

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Speaker 2: Here's what he told Bloomberg earlier today.

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Speaker 4: Let's listen, you have to clear and hold and keep

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Speaker 4: the enemy out of the people. And I do believe,

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Speaker 4: by the way, that Hamas is the equivalent of the

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Speaker 4: Islamic State. This is an irreconcilable extremist group that I

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Speaker 4: believe does need to be destroyed. But how you do

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Speaker 4: that matters a great deal, and I would welcome seeing

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Speaker 4: a commitment that we are going to make your lives better.

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Speaker 4: Pavillions in Gaza.

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Speaker 2: Michael, I love your take on that. Do you see

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Speaker 2: Hamas as the equivalent of the Islamic State Israel essentially

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Speaker 2: fighting Isis Does that go for Hesbela to the north

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Speaker 2: as well.

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Speaker 6: I think I do agree with him, and I agree

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Speaker 6: that both Hesbilay and Hamas are rejectionist groups. They're irreconcilable.

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Speaker 6: There's no way to bring them over into a more

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Speaker 6: moderate camp, if you will. I was in Israel last week.

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Speaker 6: The issues are just as you think. Netanyahu cannot say

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Speaker 6: anything about a post Gaza situation because he would lose

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Speaker 6: the right wing of his governing coalition in the Kanesse,

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Speaker 6: so he is restrained and saying things like he's saying

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Speaker 6: today of oh, well, I can't talk about this until

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Speaker 6: the whole thing is over. But yeah, I think even

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Speaker 6: though the Israeli society is racked with concerns about the hostages,

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Speaker 6: they generally agree we need to destroy Hamas at the

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Speaker 6: very least the four battalions who are in the Rafa area,

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Speaker 6: and then we can begin to see our way through

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Speaker 6: the end of this phase.

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Speaker 2: Of the war. You were there last week? Yeah, How

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Speaker 2: did people react when they were talking with somebody fresh

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Speaker 2: out of Washington here? Did you get an earful on this?

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Speaker 2: Did they want to talk to you about the protests

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Speaker 2: in America? What was the conversation?

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Speaker 6: They were very concerned. They're very concerned about the growth

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Speaker 6: and explosion, frankly, of anti Semitism. They are, though, trying

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Speaker 6: to plead with us and say, after September eleventh, you

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Speaker 6: wouldn't have agreed to anyone trying to restrict your freedom

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Speaker 6: of action. Why is Biden trying to do this to us?

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Speaker 6: The thing I think, though, that is the most concerning

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Speaker 6: for them is the idea that over time we would

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Speaker 6: cut them off from arms and assistants. On the one hand,

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Speaker 6: they want to say, listen, we're going to do this ourselves.

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Speaker 6: But on the other hand, Netnyaho cannot sacrifice in the

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Speaker 6: end relationship with the United States. That is the greatest

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Speaker 6: asset arguably that Israel has, at least national security wise.

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Speaker 6: So we may not be able to talk him out

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Speaker 6: of going into Rafa, But if he's thinking about going

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Speaker 6: into Hespola before the election, I really don't think the

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Speaker 6: relationship with Israel in the United States will survive that.

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Speaker 2: That's saying a lot because a lot of people think

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Speaker 2: that's about to happen. Yeah, I need to ask you,

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Speaker 2: Michael about Ukraine troubling. If you're concerned about the future

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Speaker 2: of Ukraine troubling reporting in the New York Times today

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Speaker 2: that would suggest we are at an inflection point that

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Speaker 2: could be the turn upon which Ukraine really starts losing

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Speaker 2: this battle. Eighteen months ago, White House some Pentagon officials,

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Speaker 2: as we're reminded, we're debating whether Russia was about to collapse.

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Speaker 2: Russia is making a serious move right now. Ukraine is

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Speaker 2: asking for weapons, a patriot battery for Kharkiv, where Russia

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Speaker 2: is making quite a bit of headway here, but to

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Speaker 2: see the side effect of a month's long debate actually

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Speaker 2: show itself on the battlefield like this is troubling a

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Speaker 2: lot of US officials. What's the real situation on the ground.

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Speaker 6: It's alarming. The Ukrainians are losing villages. The Russians are

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Speaker 6: exploiting what their strengths are, which are manpower and industrial might,

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Speaker 6: and throwing everything they can at the Ukrainians. Now with

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Speaker 6: the Ukrainians got a morale boost out of the fact

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Speaker 6: that on April twentieth we paced, we did the Ukrainian aid,

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Speaker 6: but not all of that, not even a small portion

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Speaker 6: of that has come online yet, So I don't know

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Speaker 6: that they're enjoying the benefits of what they might in

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Speaker 6: another month or two. But they're trying to hold on.

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Speaker 6: The Battle of Harkiev, as you mentioned, has begun. I

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Speaker 6: think the Russians don't have enough troops, they don't have

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Speaker 6: it sized correctly to take the entire city. But it's

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Speaker 6: touch and go, and things are going to get worse

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Speaker 6: before before they get better.

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Speaker 2: For Ukraine. Well, okay, but that also would suggest there's

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Speaker 2: time for Ukraine to turn this around.

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Speaker 6: Yes, because Russia at the end of the day still

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Speaker 6: doesn't have the right strategy or the right leadership. I

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Speaker 6: think to do a sustained breakthrough in Ukraine, they may

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Speaker 6: win villages, they may make some progress here and there.

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Speaker 6: It is going to be alarming and seem alarming. But

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Speaker 6: for them to break through, for example, like the Ukrainians

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Speaker 6: did when they took Karkey, yes War Hairson in twenty

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Speaker 6: twenty two, I don't think you're going to see anything

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Speaker 6: that dramatic, but wow, that would cause a panic.

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Speaker 2: Well, your perspective is important here because I'm here in

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Speaker 2: too little, too late. You don't agree with that.

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Speaker 6: I think it came just in time, but barely.

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Speaker 1: I mean.

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Speaker 6: The hard part, of course is getting all this stuff

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Speaker 6: over there and getting it online. There are obviously munitions, backlogs.

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Speaker 2: And all sorts of a lot more to deliver.

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Speaker 6: I think they'll hold on, but it's going to be

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Speaker 6: touch and go, and.

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Speaker 2: A lot more to manufacture as well, in that sixty

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Speaker 2: billion dollar truck. Gosh, Michael, it's great to see you.

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Speaker 2: Michael Allen from Beacon Global Strategies helping us walk through

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Speaker 2: the news today on the geopolitical front.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and Android

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Speaker 7: It's not just CPI day. This is also a day

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Speaker 7: where we got news not just on inflation, but on

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Speaker 7: presidential debates will be happening between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

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Speaker 7: The first will be on June twenty seventh in Atlanta,

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Speaker 7: the swing state of Georgia, and that is where we

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Speaker 7: go in our next conversation. I'm pleased to say that

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Speaker 7: joining us here on Balance of Power on Bloomberg Television

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Speaker 7: and Radio as doctor Bernice King. She's the daughter of

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Speaker 7: Martin Luther King, Junior and the CEO of the King Center.

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Speaker 7: Joining us from our Atlanta bureau, Doctor King, thank you

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Speaker 7: so much for being here. We appreciate your time as

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Speaker 7: we look ahead to what will go down in Atlanta

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Speaker 7: just over a month from now. It comes against a

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Speaker 7: backdrop of polls suggesting, including a New York Times Siana

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Speaker 7: pol just earlier this week, that not only is Donald

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Speaker 7: Trump leading in swing states including Georgia. Twenty percent of

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Speaker 7: black voters is the tally he's winning right now. That

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Speaker 7: would be the highest for any Republican presidential candidate since

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Speaker 7: the enactment of the Civil Rights Act of nineteen sixty four.

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Speaker 7: What exactly do you see happening here? Why is support shifting?

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Speaker 8: Well, I think when people feel like they are not

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Speaker 8: getting their issues heard or represented in a period of time,

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Speaker 8: and there is a shift in the possibility of changing

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Speaker 8: administrations or candidates, people have a tendency to shift parties

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Speaker 8: or shift.

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Speaker 9: To other individuals who may be running in the same party.

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Speaker 8: We saw that, as you know, in two thousand and

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Speaker 8: eight with President Obama after President Bush.

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Speaker 9: We saw that.

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Speaker 8: When Obama ran again, some people who did not vote

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Speaker 8: for him the first time voted for him the second time,

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Speaker 8: or people who did not vote for him who people

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Speaker 8: who voted for President Bush and this time around when

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Speaker 8: Obama was running, did not vote in the Republican Party

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Speaker 8: voted in the Democratic Party because.

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Speaker 9: They wanted hope, they wanted change.

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Speaker 8: So I think there are people in the black community

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Speaker 8: who are feeling like not a lot has changed, especially

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Speaker 8: economically in the black community, and I think many of

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Speaker 8: them are being driven by that.

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Speaker 5: Doctor King.

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Speaker 2: It's great to have you with us, and I appreciate

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Speaker 2: the time that you're giving us today. From Atlanta. We

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Speaker 2: were in Atlanta for the Senate runoff that re established

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Speaker 2: Raphael Warnock as the Senator from Georgia, and I had

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Speaker 2: the opportunity to walk around the King Center, spent time

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Speaker 2: walking past that beautiful reflecting pool, and the people we

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Speaker 2: spoke with that day talked about Joe Biden and Democrats

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Speaker 2: what they could do to help Georgia. Raphael Warnock, of course,

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Speaker 2: is a big part of that conversation, and we're having

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Speaker 2: a very different conversation at this point now. But you're there.

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Speaker 2: What are you actually hearing from people? Do you believe

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Speaker 2: these polls? Do you believe that Donald Trump is going

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Speaker 2: to secure the black vote in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 8: I don't know if it's a matter of a belief.

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Speaker 8: I think there are many people concerned that that could

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Speaker 8: be the case, and it's not speculation. I mean, especially

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Speaker 8: black males who seemed to be more attracted to Donald

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Speaker 8: Trump and his candidacy. And I think there's going to

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Speaker 8: be a There has to be a plan and a

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Speaker 8: strategy for the Biden administration to really creatively figure out

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Speaker 8: how to reach especially this next generation who's very disgruntled

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Speaker 8: right now. UH with the Biden administration. It's not gonna

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Speaker 8: be easy, unfortunately, but it this is uh, this probably

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Speaker 8: is the the most defining l election of of my

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Speaker 8: my time. You know, I've been here sixty one years,

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Speaker 8: I've been you know, voting for what forty five somewhere

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Speaker 8: around there forty four years.

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Speaker 9: Or so, you know.

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Speaker 8: I it's an important election and people have to be

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Speaker 8: very thoughtful about how they wanna see our nation move

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Speaker 8: forward uh in the coming years, and who is going

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Speaker 8: to best represent that policy wise and tone and tenor wise.

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Speaker 9: Because it all goes together. Presidents set a.

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Speaker 8: Tone in a nation and that is to me just

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Speaker 8: as important as the policy side. As we know, most

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Speaker 8: of the policies are passed by Congress. Th they're running

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Speaker 8: as well this year, So it has to be very

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Speaker 8: thoughtful in the approach. And I'm not sure many people

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Speaker 8: are being thoughtful at this time. Typically people are led

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Speaker 8: by you know, emotion, and we also have to be

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Speaker 8: thoughtful globally. You know, it can't just be about me,

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Speaker 8: because I live collectively in community. It's about my neighbors,

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Speaker 8: So I have to think about it holistically, you know,

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Speaker 8: about who would best represent us holistically as a nation

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Speaker 8: and also those very fundamental issues that affect the least

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Speaker 8: among us.

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Speaker 7: Well as we consider the issues, and knowing that President

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Speaker 7: Biden himself will actually be down in Georgia this weekend

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Speaker 7: giving the commencement address at Morehouse, we've seen a lot

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Speaker 7: of turmoil on college campuses lately. The issue of Israel

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Speaker 7: and the ongoing war in Gaza is definitely one that

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Speaker 7: seems to be shaping this election cycle, and especially given

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Speaker 7: you and your family's legacy a peaceful protests, what do

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Speaker 7: you make of what we have seen on campuses across

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Speaker 7: the country that have not always been peaceful and in fact,

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Speaker 7: in many instances have turned violent.

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Speaker 8: Well, I think I think in all fairness, UH, it

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Speaker 8: has to be a balanced approach and how we talk

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Speaker 8: about it. UH. As as with any UH protest, any movement,

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Speaker 8: there's gonna be people who infiltrate UH happen with my father.

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Speaker 8: The difference I think in today's time is because there's

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Speaker 8: not a real strategy that people are organizing around collectively

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Speaker 8: with parameters and criteria. It's it's very difficult in a

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Speaker 8: world where people can get you know, information instantly, uh

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Speaker 8: to have those kind of regulations. But you have to,

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Speaker 8: uh because otherwise what becomes the stories what you're saying.

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Speaker 10: Uh.

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Speaker 8: My my father was able to guard against that, as

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Speaker 8: you know Memphis, they had to pull him out right

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Speaker 8: before uh he was assassinated. Shortly before he assassinate that

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Speaker 8: he led a protests there and some people that didn't

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Speaker 8: filtrate it to turn it violent. And he had a

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Speaker 8: track record of nonviolence, and that's important uh as well

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Speaker 8: as we approach to see. So yes, that that is

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Speaker 8: true that there have been some, but I I do

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Speaker 8: want to applaud the young people who have not been violent,

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Speaker 8: the ones who have been trying to press the message

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Speaker 8: about what's happening to the Palestinians, and those who are

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Speaker 8: pressing the message about Palestinians and freeing the hostages, because

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Speaker 8: all of this is getting lost because I think there

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Speaker 8: are people out there who genuinely want a holistic approach

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Speaker 8: to what's what's happening, and they want something that's humane

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Speaker 8: and the saving of lives period and and so that's

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Speaker 8: not getting to the surface.

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Speaker 9: And so I do not.

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Speaker 8: Uh support the violence because I'm I come from a

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Speaker 8: place of nonviolence, but I do know that there are

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Speaker 8: people out there who do have a posture of trying

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Speaker 8: to do this in a peaceful way, and unfortunately, when

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Speaker 8: people feel like their demands are not being heard, it

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Speaker 8: often happens. That's when Daddy said, you get the violence

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Speaker 8: is the language of the unheard. So we have to

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Speaker 8: look at why is this happening as well.

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Speaker 2: It's an awfully important line right now, Doctor King. Kayley

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Speaker 2: mentions the speech at Morehouse, the commencement addressed by President Biden.

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Speaker 2: That's not all we have on the schedule this week.

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Speaker 2: On Thursday tomorrow he'll be meeting with platus from Brown

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Speaker 2: versus the Board of Education case and their families. On Friday,

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Speaker 2: he's speaking at an NAACP event, who will address members

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Speaker 2: of the Little Rock nine a campaign event on Saturday

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Speaker 2: in Atlanta, and then Morehouse on Sunday, Doctor King, is

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Speaker 2: being present like this help.

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Speaker 9: Well? If being present is consistent?

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Speaker 8: Yes, it's very difficult if people perceive your presence as

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Speaker 8: being more political. And I think that's what a lot

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Speaker 8: of people who in elected office face, and that is

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Speaker 8: where are you in the middle? You know, in the

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Speaker 8: in the times in between, UH, and and I think

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Speaker 8: people are experiencing that they're showing up now, but what

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Speaker 8: about those other times. Now, I'm not suggesting that UH,

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Speaker 8: that has not been the case with the administration. But

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Speaker 8: if it is the case that you have been consistently present,

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Speaker 8: then the messaging has to improve, UH. And people need

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Speaker 8: to know that you have and those people who n

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Speaker 8: who know you've been present, need to be the voice saying,

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Speaker 8: let me show you how they've been present.

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Speaker 9: Here are the results.

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Speaker 8: So the the campaign can't speak. The people who have

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Speaker 8: benefited from UH, the administration, should, I say, need to

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Speaker 8: be speaking. Let me show you how this has impacted

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Speaker 8: my life. This is what I have gotten from the

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00:24:55,760 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 8: Biden administration. So it's now's the time for the people

438
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:04,920
Speaker 8: who believe in this candidate, who believe in President Biden,

439
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:07,439
Speaker 8: because he's a candidate. Now unfortunately he's the president, but

440
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 8: yet he's a candidate. So now the people who believe

441
00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:13,119
Speaker 8: in what he's done as the president need to be

442
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:16,359
Speaker 8: speaking for him while he is the candidate and saying,

443
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 8: this is what he's done for our communities, our group

444
00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:21,160
Speaker 8: with these issues.

445
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 2: Only you could make the point in the way that

446
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 2: you just did, Doctor King, were delighted that you could

447
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 2: come and talk to us today live from Atlanta. Doctor

448
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:32,199
Speaker 2: Bernice King, CEO of the King Center, thank you for

449
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,359
Speaker 2: joining here on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

450
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:39,400
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines. Fascinating conversation, Kaylee, as

451
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:42,920
Speaker 2: we spend so much time talking to strategists from here

452
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:46,080
Speaker 2: inside the beltwagh. Obviously the conventional wisdom inside the bubble

453
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:48,680
Speaker 2: is important when you're dealing with Congress and the White House,

454
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 2: but hearing your perspective like that be awfully important for

455
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 2: both campaigns right now.

456
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,359
Speaker 7: Yeah, And the message from doctor King there essentially is

457
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:58,840
Speaker 7: consistency is key, not just one week of events that

458
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:03,040
Speaker 7: ultimately will make a difference when voters in specific demographic

459
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:05,600
Speaker 7: troops are questioning whether or not your policies ultimately have

460
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 7: cater to them or not.

461
00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:09,200
Speaker 2: Her words were carefully chosen there. I'll be curious to

462
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,720
Speaker 2: see his reception at these events this week.

463
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

464
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on a car play

465
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 1: and then roudoto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on

466
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live

467
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:30,879
Speaker 1: on YouTube.

468
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 7: My eyes are looking out, Joe to the twenty seventh

469
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:38,399
Speaker 7: of June. My calendar is marked big red circle, first

470
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,159
Speaker 7: debate between Biden and Trump of the twenty twenty four cycles.

471
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:45,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, is on. It's going to be like a pin

472
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 2: dropping in that room. Imagine no crowd. Yeah, No one's clapping,

473
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 2: no cheering, Not that they're supposed to anyway, but this

474
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,120
Speaker 2: is what happens, and then they get their mics caught

475
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:59,720
Speaker 2: off over time. It's going to be a surreal environment.

476
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:01,719
Speaker 7: For these two, assuming that all those rules can be

477
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:04,880
Speaker 7: agreed to fair enough. When Donald Trump's indicating he would

478
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:08,920
Speaker 7: prefer something with a live audience, a bigger venue, maybe

479
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:11,720
Speaker 7: not wanting the mic to be clipped at any one time.

480
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:15,199
Speaker 2: Yes, right, so we'll see, I guess again, assuming that

481
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 2: everyone agrees to all of this, Let's see what the

482
00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:21,680
Speaker 2: panel thinks. Rick Davis, of course, Bloomberg Politics contributor Republican strategist,

483
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 2: has actually not only run presidential campaigns, but been deeply

484
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:28,080
Speaker 2: involved in this planning process that typically includes the Commission

485
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 2: on Presidential Debates. He's with us alongside Brad Howard, Democratic

486
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:36,199
Speaker 2: strategist founder of the Corkoran Street Group. Brad, I know

487
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:39,199
Speaker 2: you're feeling pretty good about the position that Joe Biden

488
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:42,639
Speaker 2: is in walking into this, But how worried are you

489
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 2: about live fact checking? Or just Donald Trump, who never

490
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 2: cared about the rules anyway, why would he start now?

491
00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean that's obviously going to be a concern.

492
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,399
Speaker 11: You know, we saw just how rattling it was when

493
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 11: he did it to Hillary of twenty sixteen, was unprepared

494
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:02,160
Speaker 11: to holding a two account.

495
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 5: Then I think did better in twenty twenty.

496
00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:06,919
Speaker 11: But you're right, the combination of trying to hold him

497
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 11: to account could develop every single answer on that show.

498
00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 11: And you know, and I think there is some legitimate

499
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:15,640
Speaker 11: concern of is it really the moderator's role to correct

500
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 11: everything that they say? That should that be left up

501
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 11: to the American people? So I think, you know, I

502
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:23,280
Speaker 11: think there's a reasonable happy medium there. I think the

503
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:25,439
Speaker 11: moderators that I'm sure seen and will choose will be

504
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 11: you know, they have a great set a bench of

505
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 11: experienced moderators, and so I think I trust these views

506
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:35,920
Speaker 11: organizations to handle it.

507
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:37,440
Speaker 5: Better probably than the commission here.

508
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 11: So we'll look forward to it and just to the

509
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 11: point of your your son units driver's license where I'm from.

510
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 5: Our response to that would just be bless your heart,

511
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:45,960
Speaker 5: So good luck with that.

512
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:49,560
Speaker 9: Bless your heart. All right?

513
00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 7: Well, Rick, come on in here, because obviously we've seen

514
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 7: a debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden before in

515
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 7: the twenty twenty cycle. We know how perhaps undignified at

516
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 7: certain points it was. To characterize it, how do you

517
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:05,800
Speaker 7: prep this go around for a debate between Donald Trump,

518
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:09,719
Speaker 7: who isn't always reluctant to stray from the truth, if

519
00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 7: you're Joe Biden, who tends to stick more to the truth.

520
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:17,200
Speaker 12: Yeah, I think Joe Biden's going to have to really

521
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 12: figure out a way to distance himself from Trump, but

522
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 12: also be really on alert because I agree it's hard

523
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 12: to fact check Donald Trump, but I mean to some

524
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 12: degree that's going to be Biden's job. He can't just

525
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 12: ignore factual misrepresentations coming from his opponent because you can't

526
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 12: rely on the moderators. CNN has a bad track record

527
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 12: with Donald Trump. You know, they much discussed town hall

528
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 12: that CNN did during the campaign with Donald Trump turned

529
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 12: into a live fest and they lost control of it.

530
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 12: Donald Trump is a disruptive guy. He knows how to

531
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:56,680
Speaker 12: take control of these situations. He's got enough, you know,

532
00:29:56,800 --> 00:30:00,920
Speaker 12: capacity to really be a just truptive force in it

533
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 12: something like a debate. And you know, General Joe Biden,

534
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 12: I mean, come on, I mean, he's he's a dignified

535
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 12: guy who tries to play by the rules, even if

536
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 12: there are no rules to be played by. And so

537
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 12: I think that they're going to have to throw out

538
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 12: the playbook with Joe Biden, force him to not think

539
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 12: about debates the way he traditionally has. I mean, he's

540
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 12: got fifty years of you know, political experience debating on

541
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:26,240
Speaker 12: one set of rules, and this is a different time,

542
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:28,840
Speaker 12: a different place, and a different opponent. You've got to

543
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 12: throw out that rule book and ready be ready to

544
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 12: really go to town on Donald Trump and and have a

545
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 12: firm grasp of the facts so that he can correct

546
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 12: the record, because if the record stands, he's going to

547
00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 12: look really bad.

548
00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 2: I still have so many questions for both of you here, Brad,

549
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 2: including who's going to watch nobody's going to mourn.

550
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 5: I realize the end of the.

551
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 2: Death of the Commission on Presidential Debates, but there was

552
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 2: a purpose here to not just have a presidential debate,

553
00:30:59,920 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 2: for instance, on a single cable network. A lot of

554
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 2: people won't even be able to watch that. We spend

555
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 2: all day talking about cord cutting here, Brad, Are we

556
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 2: gonna lose something when the commission goes away?

557
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 11: I mean, possibly it remains if you see it. I mean,

558
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 11: there are ways that I imagine that these candidates will

559
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:27,080
Speaker 11: ensure that folks in their orbits will be able to

560
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:30,240
Speaker 11: wash you know, I think, as we've seen time and again,

561
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 11: the first debate usually is a very highly watched affair.

562
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 5: But the truth you to remember, the truth thing.

563
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 11: That swayed these debates is the spin afterwards. It's does

564
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 11: a candidate give the other campaign a moment to really

565
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:50,200
Speaker 11: attack them with and run it in paid media.

566
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 5: Over and over and over.

567
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 11: So if Biden has a bad moment, if Trump has

568
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:56,720
Speaker 11: a bad moment, trust me, swing voters will see it

569
00:31:57,200 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 11: in paid ads throughout the country. One has a good

570
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 11: there's a good moment, You'll see that and paid ads

571
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 11: across the country.

572
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 5: So they will get down.

573
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:05,960
Speaker 11: But you know, the start to finish kind of full

574
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 11: broad spectrum watching the debate.

575
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 5: If you want to watch it, there will be ways

576
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 5: to watch it. I'm surely be.

577
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 11: Watch parties and things on college campuses and et cetera,

578
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:15,960
Speaker 11: So I'm less concerned about that. I mean, the average

579
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 11: viewer today is a little more savvy than they were

580
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,480
Speaker 11: probably ten years ago, so there's an ability to find

581
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:22,000
Speaker 11: any program you want to watch these days.

582
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 2: This is going to raise the stakes, though, Kayleie. In

583
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 2: that world, everyone's just going for a moment, right.

584
00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 7: You're looking for a SoundBite or whatever. It can go

585
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 7: virall on TikTok or assuming we still have it at

586
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 7: that point, we should, right, both campaigns are Both campaigns

587
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 7: are on it, but it's about what gets replayed over

588
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:39,280
Speaker 7: and over again the next day, which just underscores Rick.

589
00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:42,080
Speaker 7: How much of this, especially for two candidates who are

590
00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:45,200
Speaker 7: the age that they are, this is about performance and

591
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:48,479
Speaker 7: being able to show stamina and dexterity and speak in

592
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 7: your speech when you're ad libbing, not necessarily reading off

593
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 7: a teleprompter. Is this ultimately really going to be about policy,

594
00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:57,040
Speaker 7: especially because these two candidates are so well known, as

595
00:32:57,080 --> 00:33:00,160
Speaker 7: are a lot of their stances.

596
00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 12: That's a fair statement. What do people really take away

597
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 12: from these I was there at the debate when George

598
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 12: Bush looked at his watch.

599
00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 5: George H. W.

600
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 12: Bush looked at his watch, and that's the only thing

601
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 12: people could remember. You know, that was a Bill Clinton

602
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 12: win because of a self enforced error on the part

603
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:19,760
Speaker 12: of the president. And remember we have some history with

604
00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 12: these two guys. They have debated a couple of times,

605
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 12: and arguably Donald Trump lost the first debate because he

606
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:26,480
Speaker 12: kept talking over Joe Biden.

607
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 5: I mean like he went in loaded for bear.

608
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 12: He was not going to give Biden a chance to speak,

609
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 12: and Biden so famously said, you know, shut up and

610
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 12: let me miss my answer, and that became I mean

611
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:40,360
Speaker 12: like there's nothing subjective about that, but it was like, Wow,

612
00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 12: Joe Biden didn't fall asleep at the debate.

613
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 5: This is good.

614
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,440
Speaker 12: And he actually pushed back on Donald Trump, who was

615
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 12: kind of being a bully. So yeah, I think you're right, Kaylee.

616
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:52,920
Speaker 12: I think these these have the opportunity to showcase the

617
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 12: vitality of the candidates but also their ability to sort

618
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:58,760
Speaker 12: of operate under the heat of those cleague lights that

619
00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:00,840
Speaker 12: are going to be on that studio and Atlanta, And

620
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 12: I do think it's going to be that dynamic between

621
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 12: the two of them, because I don't care what moderator,

622
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:08,399
Speaker 12: you get. I'm sure CNN will post up some really

623
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 12: good ones. They're going to lose control of this debate

624
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 12: in the first five minutes, and then it's going to

625
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 12: be mono amano and we'll see what happens.

626
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:19,160
Speaker 2: Picturing the way in at some point here, Kaylee, I

627
00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:20,880
Speaker 2: feel like this is you know, this is like pay

628
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 2: per view stuff. Was this on purpose? Bred to make

629
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 2: sure RFK Junior was not allowed on the stage. I

630
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:31,760
Speaker 2: know that he's not on the ballot in most states,

631
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 2: but there's some polls showing him fifteen to twenty percent.

632
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 2: He could potentially qualify for an old fashioned commission debate.

633
00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 5: You know, I don't know.

634
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:44,080
Speaker 11: I mean, I think it's all the roll of the

635
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 11: dice with who RFK hurts and helps. You know, a

636
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:52,720
Speaker 11: lot of his conspiracy based theories from vaccines and et cetera.

637
00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 11: You know, traditionally we have a home in the Trump

638
00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:57,279
Speaker 11: orbit is you know, last name is a home in

639
00:34:57,320 --> 00:35:00,160
Speaker 11: the Democratic orbit, And there's enough data to suggest and

640
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 11: pulling goes both ways on this, So you know, I

641
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:05,319
Speaker 11: don't know, you know, I think, you know, I agree

642
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:05,640
Speaker 11: with Rick.

643
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:07,239
Speaker 5: I thought he had a really good analysis of that.

644
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 11: If you can't get to two hundred and seventy because

645
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 11: you're not on enough states, then you should not be

646
00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 11: in these debates.

647
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:13,920
Speaker 5: I agree with that, you know.

648
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:15,960
Speaker 11: I think what's interesting here though, is you know, if

649
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 11: I were Trump, I'd be a little more careful of

650
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 11: how he's approaching these debates because right now he's setting

651
00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 11: the standard where Trump has very high expectations and Joe

652
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 11: Biden has very low expectations. And so Joe Biden doesn't

653
00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:30,480
Speaker 11: literally fall asleep at the podium, he may have a win,

654
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 11: and it may have won the expectations game, which is

655
00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 11: a big part of these debates as well.

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Speaker 2: That's right, Rick.

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Speaker 7: Finally, I know we just had a whole conversation about

658
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:42,360
Speaker 7: how much of this is about performance over policy, But

659
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Speaker 7: is a debate the best chance for Joe Biden to

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00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 7: actually clarify what his policy in regard to Israel is

661
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:51,319
Speaker 7: considering all the back and forth we've seen in the

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Speaker 7: last few weeks.

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Speaker 12: Yeah, I think it certainly gives him a chance to

664
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Speaker 12: talk directly to the voters. And he has been sort

665
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:03,919
Speaker 12: of flip flopping on this, which is all unforced errors

666
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:06,400
Speaker 12: on his part, right, I mean, like he was fine

667
00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:08,080
Speaker 12: with the approach he took.

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00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:09,560
Speaker 5: He decided to veer the other way.

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Speaker 12: Republicans now are taking advantage of that, especially in the

670
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:17,400
Speaker 12: House of Representatives, forcing Democrats to take sticky votes on Israel.

671
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:21,239
Speaker 12: The bottom line is he needs to convince people that

672
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:23,920
Speaker 12: he's got a firm grass for the economy, because nobody

673
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:26,360
Speaker 12: is going to decide this election on Israel, but it

674
00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 12: is going to be decided on the economy. And regardless

675
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:33,240
Speaker 12: of what the economic measures are today, especially with the CPI,

676
00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:36,759
Speaker 12: he isn't getting that through to the American people. And

677
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:40,319
Speaker 12: if that's not the major topic of his conversation, he's

678
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 12: cheating himself and his administration on the progress they've made,

679
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:45,799
Speaker 12: and he will not be able to get voters to

680
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:47,680
Speaker 12: start thinking differently about the economy.

681
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:49,920
Speaker 9: All right.

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00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:53,640
Speaker 7: Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics contributor and Republican strategist, and Brad

683
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:56,479
Speaker 7: Howard of Corcoran Street Group, thank you both so much.

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00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:03,200
Speaker 1: Listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken just

685
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:06,480
Speaker 1: Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then rod

686
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 1: Oro with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

687
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:12,399
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

688
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:18,439
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

689
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:20,360
Speaker 2: As we try to figure out next steps here for

690
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 2: the FED and exactly what is the state of our economy,

691
00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:27,320
Speaker 2: knowing that the headline numbers don't always tell the whole story.

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00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:30,440
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington. It's good

693
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaker 2: to have you with us on Bloomberg TV and radio.

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Speaker 2: The euphoria on the street is one thing, Kaylee, but

695
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 2: it's a different consideration when you start talking to economists

696
00:37:39,560 --> 00:37:40,239
Speaker 2: about where we are.

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00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 7: Yeah, especially if you're talking about economists who live over

698
00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:46,759
Speaker 7: at the Federal Reserve, who, yes, may be encouraged by

699
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:49,400
Speaker 7: this one month of data, but at the end of

700
00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:51,719
Speaker 7: the day, this is just one month of data after

701
00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 7: three consecutive CPI prints that came in hot. It's great

702
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 7: news to get one that was cooler than expected. But

703
00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:59,359
Speaker 7: they're looking for a pattern here sure, not just a

704
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 7: one office because they are haunted by the ghosts of

705
00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 7: decades pass and do not want to risk cutting brakes

706
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:07,240
Speaker 7: too early. So that is where we begin with Lindsay

707
00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:10,360
Speaker 7: Oh And she is Groundwork Collaborative executive director, former Senior

708
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:14,399
Speaker 7: economic policy advisor to Senator Elizabeth Warren lindsay, welcome back

709
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 7: to balance of power. Obviously you can see good things

710
00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:20,240
Speaker 7: in the data today, but how many more data sets

711
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:22,479
Speaker 7: like this are we going to need to get before

712
00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 7: the Fed can feel comfortable cutting interest rates?

713
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 10: Yeah, thanks for having me. I mean, look, the print

714
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:33,359
Speaker 10: this morning was undeniably good news, good news I think

715
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 10: for American families, good news for the White House, and

716
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:39,279
Speaker 10: hopefully good news over at the Eccles Building.

717
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:41,560
Speaker 9: You know where the share of the Federal Reserve.

718
00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 10: Hangs out as well. You know, seeing core CPI come

719
00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:48,960
Speaker 10: in at its lowest level since April of twenty twenty one,

720
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:52,360
Speaker 10: you know, really three years now, when you sort of

721
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 10: cleave off that those food costs and those energy costs,

722
00:38:56,600 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 10: you know, that's just really really great to see. And

723
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:01,759
Speaker 10: so you know, we'll see sort of how many more

724
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 10: good prints the Federal Reserve chair needs to see before

725
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:09,360
Speaker 10: he moves to rate cuts. But you know, hard to

726
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:12,120
Speaker 10: ask for much better than what we saw this morning.

727
00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 2: So instead of trying to predict the Fed, lindsay, what's

728
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:17,439
Speaker 2: your thought, should we start cutting now?

729
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:18,640
Speaker 5: Oh?

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00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:20,840
Speaker 10: Absolutely? I mean you do not want to be behind

731
00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 10: the eight ball on rate cuts. We've got a strong

732
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:27,239
Speaker 10: job market, right, now we've got wages beating prices. And look,

733
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 10: while the trend line hasn't been as sort of steadily

734
00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 10: downward as we'd like, overall inflation has really been coming

735
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:38,120
Speaker 10: down off its peak for you know, for over a

736
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:40,319
Speaker 10: year and a half now, and so I think the

737
00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:43,640
Speaker 10: line is moving in the right direction. Borrowing costs are

738
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 10: really pinching families. We're really starting to see some negative

739
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:50,880
Speaker 10: impacts in the housing market where mortgage rates are sky high.

740
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:53,440
Speaker 10: So I'd really like to see a rate cut sooner

741
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:56,640
Speaker 10: rather than later, you know, September at the latest.

742
00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 7: Well, as you talk about what's happening in the housing

743
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:02,080
Speaker 7: it's worth pointing out that where we're still seeing the

744
00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:06,680
Speaker 7: stickiness inflation, in inflation does include shelter prices. That has

745
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:10,840
Speaker 7: been pretty persistent over a number of data sets. So lindsay,

746
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:13,239
Speaker 7: what's the solution. There are higher interest rates going to

747
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:14,360
Speaker 7: help solve that problem?

748
00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 10: No, I'm quite the opposite, right, high interest rates. We

749
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:20,200
Speaker 10: have the high mortgage rates which keep folks in the

750
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:23,800
Speaker 10: rental market unable to come in to the single family

751
00:40:23,840 --> 00:40:26,680
Speaker 10: housing market, and that keeps some rent prices high, and

752
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:29,000
Speaker 10: that shows up in that shelter index, which you know

753
00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 10: also has there's some data issues there too, Right, the

754
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:34,880
Speaker 10: shelter index really lags, and so it takes a little

755
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:37,880
Speaker 10: while for us to get relief on on housing costs

756
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 10: that show up in the in the CPI print. But

757
00:40:40,719 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 10: if you're worried about housing costs in the United States,

758
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:46,360
Speaker 10: a high interest rate environment is certainly not going to

759
00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:47,920
Speaker 10: get you in the going to get you in the

760
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:50,320
Speaker 10: right direction. It's not going to get Americans any relief

761
00:40:50,640 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 10: in the housing market.

762
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:56,000
Speaker 2: Spending time with Lindsay Owens from the Groundwork Collaborative, Lindsay.

763
00:40:56,480 --> 00:40:59,959
Speaker 2: President Biden made a big splash yesterday announcing new terror

764
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:05,480
Speaker 2: riffs on some Chinese imports with some big increases on

765
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:10,520
Speaker 2: EV's solar panels, some other things semiconductors, while keeping all

766
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:13,839
Speaker 2: of the Trump tariffs in place. Is this the new

767
00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:18,960
Speaker 2: normal now, this protectionist approach for Democrats and Republicans.

768
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:22,520
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think that's exactly right. You know, tariffs used

769
00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:26,240
Speaker 10: to be a four letter word in both parties in Washington,

770
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:28,839
Speaker 10: you know, you know, really just a decade ago, and

771
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:33,240
Speaker 10: I think there's been a sea change in how folks

772
00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:36,520
Speaker 10: on both sides of the aisle think about trade and

773
00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:40,680
Speaker 10: think about what makes a strong and resilient American economy.

774
00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:43,160
Speaker 10: I mean, I like to go back to the eve

775
00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:46,520
Speaker 10: of the pandemic, when I think Americans really got a

776
00:41:46,600 --> 00:41:49,080
Speaker 10: glimpse of what it looks like to have an economy

777
00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:52,719
Speaker 10: that is reliant on imports from China. And you know

778
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:55,440
Speaker 10: what we saw when the pandemic hit is we couldn't

779
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:57,680
Speaker 10: make anything here. We couldn't make the COVID test here,

780
00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:02,120
Speaker 10: we couldn't keep ppe here. You know, we had all

781
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:05,440
Speaker 10: sorts of shortages because of the supply chains being gummed up,

782
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:09,600
Speaker 10: you know, coming in from Asia and China in particular.

783
00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:12,439
Speaker 10: And I think Americans took a look around and said, look,

784
00:42:13,200 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 10: a resilient economy, a strong economy is one in which

785
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:19,880
Speaker 10: we have a vibrant manufacturing class in America and is

786
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:21,759
Speaker 10: one in which we can sort of keep our own

787
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:24,920
Speaker 10: shelves stocked during a crisis. And so I think the

788
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:27,920
Speaker 10: Biden administration is making the exact right move when it

789
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 10: comes to trade with China. If you want a green transition,

790
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 10: a strong green transition, you know, completely relying on cheap

791
00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:39,239
Speaker 10: solar panels for China is going to get you in

792
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 10: a heap of trouble.

793
00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:44,120
Speaker 7: Okay, So, Linda, you think the Biden administration is making

794
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,319
Speaker 7: the right move here, But essentially they move that they

795
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:49,239
Speaker 7: have made is to stand by the decisions of the

796
00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 7: Trump administration when it comes to tariffs and in fact

797
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:55,640
Speaker 7: just go further in certain key sectors. When Trump first

798
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:58,399
Speaker 7: implemented these tariffs, when that trade war kicked off back

799
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 7: in twenty eighteen, there was a lot of talk among

800
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:04,640
Speaker 7: economists about the detrimental effects that was going to have

801
00:43:05,160 --> 00:43:07,880
Speaker 7: on the US economy. It doesn't feel like we're hearing

802
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:10,920
Speaker 7: that as much this time around, and I just wonder why.

803
00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:16,000
Speaker 10: Look, I think I think the economics profession is evolving,

804
00:43:16,080 --> 00:43:19,520
Speaker 10: albeit slowly, on this point. But I think part of

805
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:22,799
Speaker 10: this is the story isn't just about trade deficits here, right,

806
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:25,960
Speaker 10: The story is about trade offs, if you will. What

807
00:43:26,040 --> 00:43:28,319
Speaker 10: are the things that we're trying to build to build

808
00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:30,879
Speaker 10: a strong economy. One of the things we want is

809
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:33,520
Speaker 10: good jobs in America. If we make all of our

810
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:37,440
Speaker 10: evs in China, we don't have a vibrant auto manufacturing

811
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:40,359
Speaker 10: industry in America. So that's an important piece of what

812
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 10: we're trying to do with trade policy here. As I mentioned,

813
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:45,799
Speaker 10: we're looking for a green transition, but we're looking for

814
00:43:45,960 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 10: resilient green transition, one that isn't going to be at

815
00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:52,360
Speaker 10: the whims of shifts in the Chinese economy, but that

816
00:43:52,480 --> 00:43:55,200
Speaker 10: is durable in the United States economy too. And so

817
00:43:55,239 --> 00:43:56,799
Speaker 10: I think when you look at the big picture, when

818
00:43:56,840 --> 00:44:00,480
Speaker 10: you look at the suite of interest here the American worker,

819
00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 10: what we want for American industrial policy, and what our

820
00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:07,880
Speaker 10: foreign policy concerns are as well, it really points to

821
00:44:08,520 --> 00:44:11,120
Speaker 10: the types of decisions that the Biden administration is rolling

822
00:44:11,160 --> 00:44:15,480
Speaker 10: out based on really thorough reviews by the USTR's office.

823
00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:19,120
Speaker 2: Lindsay, it's great to have you back. Lindsay Owens, Groundwork

824
00:44:19,239 --> 00:44:23,520
Speaker 2: Collaborative Executive Director, per view on today's CPI data.

825
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:24,399
Speaker 1: Great to have you back.

826
00:44:27,480 --> 00:44:30,680
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

827
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:33,680
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

828
00:44:33,760 --> 00:44:36,319
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

829
00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

830
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:41,360
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.