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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcasts. If you are even remotely

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Speaker 1: a savage, you'll run these people over for a second.

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Speaker 2: Hello, Welcome to the Action Network podcast UFC Betting Preview.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host, Shawan Zerilla, joined today by Billy Ward.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna discuss this weekend's UFC card going down on

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Speaker 2: Saturday night in Las Vegas. Give you your best bets,

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Speaker 2: favorite underdogs, top crops, and more. Thirteen fight card at

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Speaker 2: the Apex. Start time four pm Eastern, Main card seven

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Speaker 2: pm Eastern. If you'd like to tail some of the

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Speaker 2: bets that we discussed today, make sure to find a

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Speaker 2: quick slip link in the video description for this podcast.

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Speaker 2: We're going to Action network dot com slash bet now

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Speaker 2: find some of these quick slips. The main event Jered

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Speaker 2: Cannonier plus one ninety Gregory Robocopjrodriguez minus two twenty five

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Speaker 2: the over two and a half rounds in this fight.

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Speaker 2: Said about a pick the price minus one oh five

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Speaker 2: to the over, minus one fifteen to the under that

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Speaker 2: goes the distance at about plus two to fifty. That's

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Speaker 2: how I'm betting this fight that goes the decision. In

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Speaker 2: Cannonear's past two fights, both main events, we're about minus

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Speaker 2: one ten pick them prices now getting plus two to

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Speaker 2: fifty divisional average line around plus two hundred, or I

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Speaker 2: should say the divisional average finishing odds. The implied odds

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Speaker 2: are closer to plus two hundred, about sixty two percent overall.

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Speaker 2: I made this sixty six percent, so got to that

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Speaker 2: plus two hundred number. I guess the divisional average odge

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Speaker 2: closer to plus one seventy five for the fight to

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Speaker 2: go decision implied. So getting a little extra bonus juice

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Speaker 2: on top of that here in the apex, you know

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Speaker 2: can partially adjust for the apex, but also Canadier you know,

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Speaker 2: finished two fights back and effectively finish his last fight

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Speaker 2: at the end by Kyle Ohio basically knocked out as

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Speaker 2: the final bell was taking. Could have arguably been stopped

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Speaker 2: but taken some damage. Forty one years old, and do

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Speaker 2: want to mention the age gap here because it applies

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Speaker 2: for both the main event and the co main event.

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Speaker 2: Eight year age gap between these opponents. The younger fighter

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Speaker 2: typically wins about sixty nine percent of the time at

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Speaker 2: ivergods of about fifty six percent, roughly thirteen percent over

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Speaker 2: expectation rounded up on both of those, but the number

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Speaker 2: the differential is about thirteen percent that they win compared

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Speaker 2: to the average betting odds. Now Cannonier has faced a

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Speaker 2: much better competition, faced multiple champions, future title challengers, former

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Speaker 2: title challengers. He's a former title challenger himself, where Rodriguez

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Speaker 2: is taking a step up in competition after fighting mostly

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Speaker 2: unranked guys. He's also never fought five rounds s Gregory

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Speaker 2: Rodriguez Jerk Kennanier is in his sixth consecutive five round fight,

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Speaker 2: the eighth overall of his career. I think the big

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Speaker 2: you know, determining factor for kennedy 's success in this

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Speaker 2: fight is Rodriguez's durability, because I do expect Rodriguez to

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Speaker 2: be faster, I expect him to be the better grappler.

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Speaker 2: He hits extremely hard, he's absolutely ripped, but he doesn't

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Speaker 2: grapple proactively all that much. And Jared has pretty good

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Speaker 2: takedown defense, or I should say Jared is pretty good

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Speaker 2: get up game. His takedown defense could be lackluster. When

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Speaker 2: he does get taken down, he does tend to stay

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Speaker 2: safe and eventually use his strength to pop back to

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Speaker 2: his feet. Not as technical with his get ups as

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Speaker 2: he is just explosive in terms of getting up, but

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Speaker 2: seeing him fade down the stretch in his past two fights,

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Speaker 2: see him get hurt, you know, in multiple fights recently,

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Speaker 2: not even just the fights where he was knocked out,

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Speaker 2: but other fights as well. I think that's why we're

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Speaker 2: getting some extra juice on top of this goes to

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Speaker 2: decision prop but as I said, made the line plus

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Speaker 2: two hundred and get plus two to fifty currently and

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Speaker 2: then also Rodriguez by decision at five to one, I

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Speaker 2: made that line closer to plus three eighty like that

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Speaker 2: down at about four to one or better. Not substantial

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Speaker 2: bets here. This is kind of main event where if

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Speaker 2: I wasn't writing about it, but I didn't have to

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Speaker 2: write about the main event, we didn't have to talk

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Speaker 2: about the main event, would probably not necessarily be betting it.

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Speaker 2: But I do lean to the younger favorite, which I

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Speaker 2: think is a bit contrarion. I do think Jerreed Kennoneer

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Speaker 2: is gonna end up looking like a value trap this weekend,

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Speaker 2: and I think Rodriguez by decision is the even more

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Speaker 2: contrariant way to play it. I know people are loading

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Speaker 2: up on Rodriguez inside the distance this weekend don't really

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Speaker 2: see him getting the submission. I could see them slugging

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Speaker 2: it out in the center of the cage and either

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Speaker 2: man falling, which certainly lends itself to the Cannoneer side,

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Speaker 2: But I think Rodriguez would be a little bit safer

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Speaker 2: than he normally is with the tempo in his first

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Speaker 2: career main event, Billy, I think you would agree with me,

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Speaker 2: not necessarily the most bettable fight. Cannoneer probably like the

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Speaker 2: value side of the money line looking at it based

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Speaker 2: on past performances, but he's also in his forties coming

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Speaker 2: off those finish lasses. You're leaning to the over two

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Speaker 2: and a half rounds here if you had to play it.

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Speaker 2: I considered that as well. I kind of thought if

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Speaker 2: it got to the over two and a half rounds point,

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Speaker 2: it had a pretty good shot of going a full

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Speaker 2: twenty five minutes. So give me your analysis on this fight.

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Speaker 2: You're lean to the over two and a half and

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Speaker 2: any other ways you might consider playing it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, As far as the value stuff on Cannon here,

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Speaker 3: I think the case is that g rod every once

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Speaker 3: in a while just decides he's Mike Tyson and just

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Speaker 3: wants to plant his feet and throw and everyone's screaming

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Speaker 3: like no, no, don't do that. Occasionally it works and

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Speaker 3: it looks really cool and he knocks out Julian Marquez

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Speaker 3: or whoever.

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Speaker 4: But like there's just enough risk of that that it's really.

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Speaker 3: Hard to lay juice on him because you never know

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Speaker 3: that he's going to do the right thing. Like I

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Speaker 3: we both looked stupid with Cody Steele last week, just

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Speaker 3: deciding that he was going to brawl instead of grapple.

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Speaker 4: And there's just some guys that you always worry about that.

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Speaker 3: With all that said, I like the reason I'm going

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Speaker 3: over two and a half is one is around even money.

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Speaker 3: It's minus one oh five, which you know you're not

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Speaker 3: paying too much on it. But as you pointed out,

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Speaker 3: Cannon here finished in the fourth round by Emovov, kind

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Speaker 3: of sort of finished by Kyobojio, like in a fact,

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Speaker 3: as the bell ring in the fifth round. Even though

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Speaker 3: he's been in so many five rounders, he does seem

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Speaker 3: to kind of collapse late in the fight, especially as

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Speaker 3: he's getting older. And this is a guy who cuts

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Speaker 3: a ton of weight, you know, former heavyweight, massive dude.

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Speaker 3: I can kind of see that argument. It's harder to

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Speaker 3: make the argument because g Rod's coming to his first

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Speaker 3: five rounder, but maybe ge Rod's a little bit safer,

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Speaker 3: takes his time, Like, just given the price that we're

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Speaker 3: getting on that, I don't feel the need to get greedy.

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Speaker 3: I'm and goes to a decision, But like if I

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Speaker 3: was betting go to a decision or not, I'm one

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Speaker 3: hundred percent with you. I just think going over two

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Speaker 3: and a half is kind of a safer way, or

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Speaker 3: even like fight starts round three, if you want to

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Speaker 3: lay a little bit of juice. I do think if

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Speaker 3: there's any fight IQ in the Hobocop camp that they're

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Speaker 3: telling him, take your time, get him up against the fence,

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Speaker 3: drag him down, like, don't expend everything at once, and

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Speaker 3: don't brawl with him, and you would think that would

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Speaker 3: mean a later finish if at all.

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Speaker 2: Is last fight. He gets cold, probably grappled more proactively

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Speaker 2: than he has at any point in the UFC. Eight

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Speaker 2: minutes of top time in that fight. Would imagine that's

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Speaker 2: part of the game plan for this fight.

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Speaker 4: Mix it up.

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Speaker 2: You are the better all around martial artists. He's an

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Speaker 2: excellent backtaker, doesn't have a submission in the UFC. Does

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Speaker 2: tend to get to very lethal positions and then ultimately

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Speaker 2: his opponents are able to scramble away from him. So

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Speaker 2: I think there's a chance, you know, just based on

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Speaker 2: regressing like the positions that he gets to, that eventually

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Speaker 2: he's going to find that submission. But he's also going

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Speaker 2: against the higher ranked opponents, higher ranked fighters in the

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Speaker 2: division now, so you know, that sort of neutralizes out

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Speaker 2: over time and the finishes. The higher up you go

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Speaker 2: in the division, fights tend to go to a decision

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Speaker 2: just a little bit more frequently because guys tend to

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Speaker 2: be a bit more durable. But yeah, that's that's the

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Speaker 2: one concerned I have bettering than the Rodriguez side, especially

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Speaker 2: on the money line. Sometimes he does just want to

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Speaker 2: stand in the pocket and fire, you know, bullets a

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Speaker 2: little bit too long. He's very upright in terms of

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Speaker 2: his striking defense. You know, he leaves his chin up

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Speaker 2: there a little bit. He stays in the pocket a

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Speaker 2: little bit too long, and cannon here is going to

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Speaker 2: be throwing more in combination with Rodriguez is going to

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Speaker 2: be looking for that you know, one shot power more

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Speaker 2: of those crisp, bright hands to land and potentially put

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Speaker 2: Cannonier away where I think cannon Hear could potentially land

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Speaker 2: more volume and also just catch Rodriguez on the end

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Speaker 2: of a long combination. But yeah, lean over two and

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Speaker 2: a half rounds lean fight to go to a decision. There,

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Speaker 2: lean Rodriguez by decision at five to one, as opposed

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Speaker 2: to Cannonar by decision of plus nine to fifty. But

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Speaker 2: I don't think that is necessarily a bad bet either.

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Speaker 2: If you like the underdog, move on our fight of

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Speaker 2: the night another fight, as I mentioned, with that eight

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Speaker 2: year age gap between the favorite and the underdog, use

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Speaker 2: of Sala maus forty five Calvin Cater plus three seventy.

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Speaker 2: This fight is minus two of five to go to

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Speaker 2: a decision, lust one fifty to end inside the distance.

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Speaker 2: And if this fight does go to a decision, I

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Speaker 2: think it helps Calvin Cat's chances immensely because the lalls

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Speaker 2: inside the distance props are pretty low. Considering Cater's career

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Speaker 2: history of surviving not getting finished to a decision. He

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Speaker 2: got thoroughly out wrestled by al Jamaine Sterling. Yusuf Salala

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Speaker 2: is not nearly the type of wrestler that al Jo is.

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Speaker 2: He's a very dangerous scrabbler. He's a really good top

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Speaker 2: game once he gets on top of opponents, but his

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Speaker 2: takedown game is more trip reliant. It's more like Mui

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Speaker 2: Thai trips. He doesn't have that traditional American wrestling style

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Speaker 2: that I think is likely to ground Cater consistently. And

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Speaker 2: if the Wall isn't landing takedowns here, I think Cater

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Speaker 2: can keep the fight competitive. And I'm interested in Cater

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Speaker 2: by decision at seven to one, Billy, I would imagine

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Speaker 2: you think Cater also is a chance of winning by knockout.

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Speaker 2: Curious your thoughts on that Cater by decision prop, But

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Speaker 2: I think his takedown defense could keep this fight standing.

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Speaker 2: If he's able to keep the fight standing, it should

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Speaker 2: be competitive.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: My full preview of this one is up now if

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Speaker 3: anyone's interested. But it's a really interesting fight. Yusuf's all

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Speaker 3: two point zero because this is a second stint in

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Speaker 3: the octagon, three straight wins by submission.

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Speaker 4: He has a kickboxing background.

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Speaker 3: In his last fight he landed big knee and then

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Speaker 3: got the sub so we can kind of see that

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Speaker 3: Calvin Cater, who we think of is this you know,

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Speaker 3: mostly boxing based fighter, was a state qualifier in wrestling

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Speaker 3: in high school before he got into MMA, So it's

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Speaker 3: kind of a little bit the opposite of what you

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Speaker 3: would think. Cater's only been taken down by three opponents

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Speaker 3: in his thirteen UFC fights, al jam and Sterling really

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Speaker 3: the only one to do you know, a lot with it.

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Speaker 3: And even then, the fact that he landed eight takedowns

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Speaker 3: in three rounds means Cater was able to escape from

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Speaker 3: five of them. Sterling didn't do a ton with any

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Speaker 3: of those takedowns. He just got him there and they

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Speaker 3: scrambled around and Cater eventually got back to his feet.

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Speaker 3: Because of that, I think he'll be able to keep

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Speaker 3: this on the feet for extended stretches. Way more volume

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Speaker 3: from the Cater side than there's the Law side. This

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Speaker 3: is just a classic like minutes versus moments fight for me,

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Speaker 3: where I think Cater wins most of the minutes with

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Speaker 3: his volume and is more accurate striking Zillah a little

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Speaker 3: bit more explosive on the feet and can steal some

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Speaker 3: minutes or some moments, I should say, with takedowns. The

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Speaker 3: only time Cater's ever been finished in his career, he

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Speaker 3: was submitted once in two thousand and eight, and then

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Speaker 3: he blew out his knee a couple of fights ago.

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Speaker 3: The Sterling fight was his first fight back from an injury,

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Speaker 3: so I kind of not always but often liked to

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Speaker 3: better guy on the second fight back from an injury.

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Speaker 3: We're assuming he got in a full training camp. It

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Speaker 3: wasn't rushed, he was able to recover. The one thing

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Speaker 3: that gives me pause a teeny bit is he also

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Speaker 3: pulled out of a fight between here and Sterling, so

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Speaker 3: I don't know if that was another injury or what

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Speaker 3: happened there.

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Speaker 4: Didn't seem to be anything significant.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, as you break it down, I love the

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Speaker 3: cater By decision side last. We forget though he was

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Speaker 3: knocking everybody out until he fought like Max Holloway and

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Speaker 3: some of the top level guys. I don't know that

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Speaker 3: Za Law can't be one of these top level guys

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Speaker 3: in the division. I know we haven't seen it yet,

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Speaker 3: so I'm probably gonna add a little bit of a

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Speaker 3: k Tar Kadar By decision sprinkle on there, just because

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Speaker 3: I do like the logic there. I don't see the

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Speaker 3: Law getting the submission. Cater's just a good enough grappler.

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Speaker 3: I think if he gets to finish. It will be

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Speaker 3: with strikes, maybe strikes on the ground. But yeah, we

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Speaker 3: saw we've only been submitted once. It was seventeen years

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Speaker 3: ago or something. At this point, I'm not too worried

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Speaker 3: about that. I think there's a lot of value on Kadar.

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Speaker 3: The only other thing I would say is this would

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Speaker 3: normally be a perfect point spread fight because he just

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Speaker 3: needs to win one round. DraftKings has the point spread

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Speaker 3: at minus one to fifteen. Both guys, so just too

257
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Speaker 3: big of a difference off his money line. I'd rather

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Speaker 3: take the big swing.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely. With those money lines at plus three xacs,

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Speaker 2: you normally see plus money on that point spread. Don't

261
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Speaker 2: want to be betting minus money. I think the money

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Speaker 2: line offers more value relative to that number. The decision

263
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Speaker 2: prop offers more value relative to that number. As you mentioned,

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Speaker 2: Cater's second fight back off of an injury, Gyr cannoneer

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Speaker 2: third fight back off a knee surgery. So both guys

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Speaker 2: in a similar situation, you know, eight years older than

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Speaker 2: their opponent. The age angle up against them, facing a younger, better,

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Speaker 2: stronger athlete who can probably outgrapple them, but neither has

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Speaker 2: you know, particularly dominant top time abilities. Both are able

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Speaker 2: to let their opponents scramble up at times, you know,

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Speaker 2: either due to lack of coherent pressure you know, top

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Speaker 2: pressure from Rodriguez at times, or just a lack of

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Speaker 2: complete wrestling game from Zla.

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Speaker 4: So I think both.

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Speaker 2: Underdogs could be live, could be able to keep those

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Speaker 2: main events and co main events standing, potentially make them

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Speaker 2: closer and more competitive than the odds suggests. But I

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Speaker 2: think of the two, Cater the underdog I'm much more

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Speaker 2: interested in, and Cater by decision is how I go

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Speaker 2: about playing that. It's more one of our favorite underdogs

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Speaker 2: on this card. We're in alignment on two fighters. I'll

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Speaker 2: go ahead and give out the third before we get

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Speaker 2: to the two that are consensus underdogs. Vince Barrale is

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Speaker 2: at plus one thirty two against Elijah Smith. You tape

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Speaker 2: the Elijah Smith for Contender Series. I'm curious of your

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Speaker 2: thoughts on Smith as a prospect. I'm not particularly high

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Speaker 2: on him, but more so, I just think now is

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Speaker 2: the time to fade him, because if this guy gets better,

289
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Speaker 2: he's a very good athlete. This guy gets better, I

290
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Speaker 2: think he's going to be a lot more difficult for

291
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Speaker 2: youc fighters to face, but he is eight pro fight

292
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Speaker 2: Vince Morales has nine fights in the UFC twenty four overall,

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Speaker 2: so Vince Morales is more UFC fights than Elijah Smith

294
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Speaker 2: is pro fights, and there's a twelve year age gap

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Speaker 2: between these two. Smith is twenty two, Morales is thirty four.

296
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Speaker 2: But this is not you know, this is not twenty

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Speaker 2: eight and forty twenty two and thirty four is a

298
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Speaker 2: lot different. Smith hasn't necessarily hit his physical prime yet.

299
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Speaker 2: Mirale is probably slowing down, but not you know, necessarily

300
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Speaker 2: at the the thirty five year old age cliff that

301
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Speaker 2: we typically see a big drop off with guys. I

302
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Speaker 2: do think the first round should be the best round

303
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Speaker 2: here for Smith, so I'm not alloc hitting a ton

304
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Speaker 2: pre fight to Vince Morales. I think the better angle

305
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Speaker 2: is probably live after round one, but I think he

306
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Speaker 2: is you know, better wrestling. I think he is takedown

307
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Speaker 2: defense to keep this fight standing, and I don't like

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Speaker 2: Smith's striking defense. I don't like his cardios. So I

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Speaker 2: do think Morales works his way back into the fight

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Speaker 2: in the second or third rounds, probably get a better

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Speaker 2: number live after round one, but certainly wants a pre

312
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Speaker 2: fight at about plus one thirty. The two underdogs were

313
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Speaker 2: in alignment on the first is Andre Petrowski against Rudolfhaviira

314
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Speaker 2: billion and I never aligned on Petroski or Vieira fights.

315
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Speaker 2: We're always on the opposite side, except for one time.

316
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Speaker 2: Here we are aligned once again. I think we'd both agree.

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Speaker 2: Vieira alive for an early submission if he doesn't get that,

318
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Speaker 2: Petrosky has a chance to top time him, especially for

319
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Speaker 2: the final three rounds. I think Patrotski is the better wrestler,

320
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Speaker 2: Viera clearly the better grappler. The striking should be somewhat neutral.

321
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Speaker 2: Maybe I give a slight edge to Vieira there, which

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Speaker 2: can justify his favoritism. But Petroski money line live after

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Speaker 2: round one and then by decision all three ways, I

324
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Speaker 2: consider playing that for now, though I'd hold off that

325
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Speaker 2: Petrosky money line open at plus one seventy five. It's

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Speaker 2: gotten up to plus two thirty. It's only moved in

327
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Speaker 2: one direction. I'm just gonna wait to time peak price

328
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Speaker 2: in that market. And then, lastly, Kaos Williams plus one

329
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Speaker 2: eighty five against Gabriel bon fimban Fima is a better

330
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Speaker 2: all round fighter, better grappler but he's that a big

331
00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:04,840
Speaker 2: not a big physicality differential, but a big durability differential

332
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Speaker 2: in this fight, Chaos Williams, I think you could hit

333
00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:09,280
Speaker 2: him with a truck and he may not tip over,

334
00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:12,960
Speaker 2: may not even get taken down by that truck. But

335
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Speaker 2: he is crazy knockout power of his own. He's extremely durable.

336
00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:19,320
Speaker 2: He's got a five entre each advantage here, and I

337
00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:22,120
Speaker 2: really don't trust bomb team shrinking defense in the pocket.

338
00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:24,080
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna get clipped here and we'll see

339
00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:27,000
Speaker 2: if Williams power is enough to put him away. So

340
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Speaker 2: Williams plus one eighty five also live after round one.

341
00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:33,760
Speaker 2: Bomb fime does tend to fade as the fights extend

342
00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:36,120
Speaker 2: to get into the third round. Billy, we're aligned on

343
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Speaker 2: the Williams site. We're a lining to the Petrowski fight.

344
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Speaker 2: Curious if you have any thoughts on the Morales fight

345
00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:43,760
Speaker 2: and then any other underdogs that we didn't get to

346
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Speaker 2: or won't get you on the car that you're interested

347
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Speaker 2: about it.

348
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll be real quick on Chaos because I think

349
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Speaker 3: you nailed it. And also just that boy hits real

350
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Speaker 3: hard and sometimes that's enough when you're a big underdog

351
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Speaker 3: like if you've got that that obvious way to win,

352
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Speaker 3: maybe you just take it. I don't like as an

353
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Speaker 3: activity so much, but again we're getting plus money, so

354
00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:05,440
Speaker 3: not a big deal. The interesting thing about Petrosky from

355
00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:08,480
Speaker 3: a stylistic standpoint, I think if you did a pure

356
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Speaker 3: grappling match with these guys and you started them on

357
00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:15,160
Speaker 3: the ground, whoever started on top would win every exchange. Yeah,

358
00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:18,520
Speaker 3: because they're both so good from the top. Rudolpho Vieira

359
00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:22,120
Speaker 3: for being a guy who didn't wrestle for wrestling sake

360
00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:25,000
Speaker 3: and is a jiu jitsu guy, good takedowns, like he's

361
00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:28,879
Speaker 3: an above average takedown artist for a jiu jitsu player.

362
00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:32,119
Speaker 3: Petroski was a Pennsylvania state champion who wrestled d one.

363
00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:34,280
Speaker 3: That's one of those like there's levels to this thing.

364
00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:37,840
Speaker 3: I also think in some ways he's the better MMA grappler.

365
00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:40,040
Speaker 3: People have dogged him a lot because he's been real

366
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Speaker 3: boring from the top his last couple fights, but like

367
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Speaker 3: he was winning the fight and his opponents were just

368
00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:47,200
Speaker 3: hanging on for dear life, and Petrosky is smart enough

369
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Speaker 3: to say, Okay, I'm.

370
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Speaker 4: Winning this round, you're hanging on.

371
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Speaker 3: I'm not going to leave an arm out there and

372
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Speaker 3: do something stupid, where Vieira I think, switches into jiu

373
00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:58,360
Speaker 3: jitsu mode too often, where he's like, I don't get

374
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Speaker 3: anything from being in top. I have to pass the go.

375
00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:02,280
Speaker 3: I have to do this, and he gives more openings

376
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Speaker 3: and more risk. So that's one of the reasons. I

377
00:18:05,119 --> 00:18:08,600
Speaker 3: also think Petrowski's cardio is a bit better. We've just

378
00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:11,119
Speaker 3: seen Viera totally fall apart. Neither guy is like a

379
00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:14,399
Speaker 3: cardio machine. These are big, strong grapplers, which is like

380
00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:17,240
Speaker 3: the exact wrong thing you want to be if you

381
00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:20,520
Speaker 3: want to fight extended fights. But if you watch Fierra strike,

382
00:18:20,560 --> 00:18:23,119
Speaker 3: he's really tense. I think he's the better striker, but

383
00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:26,680
Speaker 3: he's very tense and very explosive. Petrowsky is to an extent,

384
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Speaker 3: but not as bad. So the nightmare scenario here is

385
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,000
Speaker 3: we just get like a bad striking match between these

386
00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:35,760
Speaker 3: two because it won't be entertaining or good.

387
00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:36,000
Speaker 4: For our bet.

388
00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:38,680
Speaker 3: I don't think even if that does happen, I think

389
00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:41,879
Speaker 3: Petroski will look fresher later into the fight. So I

390
00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:45,119
Speaker 3: like your live angle for that reason too. You know,

391
00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:48,080
Speaker 3: I think we're aligned on that. The one pushback I'll

392
00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:50,560
Speaker 3: give you on the Vince morel As Elijah Smith fight.

393
00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:53,600
Speaker 3: Morells was like plus two hundred earlier in this week.

394
00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:57,040
Speaker 3: This line has plummeted. I didn't do luck ratings this week.

395
00:18:57,080 --> 00:18:58,520
Speaker 3: I was sick at the start of the week, so

396
00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:01,240
Speaker 3: I missed that one. I think at this point you

397
00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:04,680
Speaker 3: have to take Smith. A lot of the reasoning I'm

398
00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:08,119
Speaker 3: seeing for all that money coming in on Morales is

399
00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:10,720
Speaker 3: the cardio issue for Smith. He kind of fell apart

400
00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:13,199
Speaker 3: in his third round of his Contender Series fight. He

401
00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:15,440
Speaker 3: took that one on very short notice. He was supposed

402
00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:18,600
Speaker 3: to fight at a different date, stepped up early and

403
00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:21,080
Speaker 3: looked great through two rounds, five takedowns through the first

404
00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:24,679
Speaker 3: two rounds, won the striking pretty easily in those, and

405
00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:27,040
Speaker 3: then just kind of hit a cardio cliff. I'm willing

406
00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:28,679
Speaker 3: to give him a pass on that just because it

407
00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:31,640
Speaker 3: was a short notice fight. If that were his full

408
00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:33,800
Speaker 3: training camp and we saw that, I'd go, Okay, we

409
00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:36,520
Speaker 3: have a cardio problem. And then with the age gap,

410
00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:40,200
Speaker 3: the athleticism, all that stuff, I probably still will come

411
00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:43,760
Speaker 3: back in on Morales Live if we get a big number,

412
00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:46,760
Speaker 3: But from a pre fight standpoint, just given the movement

413
00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:48,600
Speaker 3: I'm on the Smith's side of that, So that's the

414
00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:51,000
Speaker 3: one we disagree. The other thing is I was really

415
00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:53,359
Speaker 3: big on Aaron Tao, who he fought on the Contender Series.

416
00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:55,840
Speaker 3: I thought was one of the better prospects, and Smith

417
00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:58,760
Speaker 3: just completely outclassed him until he got tired. So if

418
00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 3: he can do that, I would Aaron tow over Vince

419
00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:03,840
Speaker 3: Morales right now, I guess is how I would phrase that.

420
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:06,600
Speaker 3: So given that Smith did that, I do think he's

421
00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:09,040
Speaker 3: the side pre fight. Don't hate the live angle though,

422
00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:11,840
Speaker 3: because this cardio is questionable at best.

423
00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:15,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, fair enough. It's a very good shout out that

424
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:17,840
Speaker 2: Smith took that Contender Series fight on short notice. That

425
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:20,840
Speaker 2: wasn't in my notes. But yeah, I think all three

426
00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:24,480
Speaker 2: underdogs not like super interested in firing on them full

427
00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:28,040
Speaker 2: allocation pre fight. I think all three you're likelier than

428
00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:31,600
Speaker 2: not to get a better price live after round one

429
00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:35,640
Speaker 2: that Petrotsky fight. I actually do have a feeling, especially

430
00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:38,199
Speaker 2: like rounds two, rounds three may play out as a

431
00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:42,840
Speaker 2: very ugly kickboxing match, especially like if they neutralize each

432
00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:45,440
Speaker 2: other on the ground, maybe they both start getting a

433
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:47,560
Speaker 2: little bit tired, They're like, I'd rather strike this out,

434
00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:50,119
Speaker 2: so maybe maybe one of the three rounds if it

435
00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:52,199
Speaker 2: goes to a decision, ends up being, you know, the

436
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:56,040
Speaker 2: worst kickboxing match for five minutes you've ever seen, but

437
00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 2: completely agree whoever's on top is winning that fight. I

438
00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:03,239
Speaker 2: think Petrosky is the slightly better wrestler. I think he

439
00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:06,560
Speaker 2: has more chance of just being on top. He prior

440
00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 2: you know you, you said a bunch of things about

441
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:14,040
Speaker 2: Petrosky and VIA's styles. Via prioritizes submission over position, which

442
00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:16,320
Speaker 2: is going to allow Petrosky to get up from bottom.

443
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:21,240
Speaker 2: Petrosky prioritizes the position over submission. I think if he's

444
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:23,679
Speaker 2: on top, VIIa less likely to get out for bottom,

445
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:25,480
Speaker 2: and I think that's kind of where we see the

446
00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:29,320
Speaker 2: value on the underdog side of things. We're aligned on

447
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:32,440
Speaker 2: some prop angles as well. I'm gonna throw it right

448
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,000
Speaker 2: back to you though, for that Petrosky Pdolfo Vira fight.

449
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:38,159
Speaker 2: You like that fight to end before the eleven minute

450
00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:41,640
Speaker 2: mark or before before it starts round three. So fight

451
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:45,040
Speaker 2: to end in the first two rounds between Petrosky and Vieira.

452
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 2: Why did you go with that angle as opposed to

453
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:49,160
Speaker 2: an under two and a half or the ends inside

454
00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:50,560
Speaker 2: of this than just less juice.

455
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:52,760
Speaker 4: Uh yeah, less juice.

456
00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:55,800
Speaker 3: You can play with the sgps on DraftKings two and

457
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,239
Speaker 3: kind of tweak that up or down. I think the

458
00:21:58,440 --> 00:21:59,879
Speaker 3: you can get the minus one oh five that I

459
00:21:59,880 --> 00:22:02,399
Speaker 3: have in our sheet and still get the first thirty

460
00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:04,520
Speaker 3: seconds of round three if you do it on Draftings.

461
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:06,680
Speaker 3: If that matters too, like it probably should, right, they'll

462
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:08,840
Speaker 3: be fresher at the start of the round. I just

463
00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:11,119
Speaker 3: don't think these guys have the cardio to make it

464
00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:13,880
Speaker 3: past the second round. I'm splitting my bet so I've

465
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:16,199
Speaker 3: got half of a unit on Petrosky half or to

466
00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:19,600
Speaker 3: win half on this one. And they're going to engage

467
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 3: each other with the grappling to an extent. Like we

468
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,960
Speaker 3: think of Petrowsky as this boring decision merchant, but that's

469
00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 3: because his last two opponents just had zero interest in

470
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:31,240
Speaker 3: grappling with him at all. It's really hard to submit

471
00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 3: someone who's just like backpacking you or hanging on for

472
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,880
Speaker 3: dear life from the bottom. They're going to give each

473
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:38,720
Speaker 3: other something, you know, Vieia's going to go for an

474
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 3: armbar from the bottom, and if he doesn't get it,

475
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 3: Petroski's gonna have opportunity to strike Petrosky's going to be

476
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 3: looking to get up from the bottom. Viera takes its back, like,

477
00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:48,679
Speaker 3: there's just plenty of things that can happen, and if

478
00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:52,639
Speaker 3: they do have a sloppy tent striking match, could probably Vieira.

479
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 4: But one of them land.

480
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:56,639
Speaker 3: Something like sure, especially once they get tired. So it

481
00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:58,880
Speaker 3: just kind of a little bit of my head here.

482
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 3: I just don't think by the end of the second

483
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:03,440
Speaker 3: round both guys are fresh and hopefully it's so one

484
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:05,160
Speaker 3: guy is fresh and not the other, so we get

485
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:08,960
Speaker 3: the finished and yeah, so that's the way. One of

486
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 3: those opponents who tried to hang on for dear life

487
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,960
Speaker 3: against Petrowski was still in Budka and we're both talking

488
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 3: about that one. So you give me your prop on that,

489
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 3: and then I'll go with my version of that.

490
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:22,200
Speaker 2: Oh, the Shabazian deal with Budga fight. Yeah, we're both

491
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:25,080
Speaker 2: having an angle on this one. I consider betting it

492
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:26,920
Speaker 2: the way you're betting it, which is Shabazian to win

493
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 2: in rounds one or two of plus one fifteen. I

494
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:32,360
Speaker 2: also looked at Shabazian by Koh's about plus one thirty five.

495
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,199
Speaker 2: Shabazi in round one is about plus two to fifty

496
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:38,720
Speaker 2: and then Shabazi in by round one KO is about

497
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 2: plus three fifty plus three sixty, So the KO one

498
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 2: I think is a good round robin piece or just

499
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 2: his KO odds as a round robin piece. I like

500
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,119
Speaker 2: the fight to end inside the distance though at minus

501
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 2: one eighty five I projected this at minus two sixty.

502
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 2: Shabazian is always incredibly nagerous in round one. Bucca is

503
00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:00,199
Speaker 2: going to be in serious danger in round one, but

504
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 2: then Shabazian's cardio drops off of a cliff. He is

505
00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:05,639
Speaker 2: in able to finish his opponents. Typically he tries to

506
00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:08,640
Speaker 2: finish them and when he's unable to, he gases himself

507
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 2: out going for the finish, like he did in his

508
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 2: last fight against Sheild Miershirt. So Edmund Schabasian always dangerous

509
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,640
Speaker 2: for about six seven minutes, which aligns with the way

510
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:20,160
Speaker 2: you bet it the other the other way, I should

511
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:23,920
Speaker 2: mention a same game parlay with Shabazian and the under

512
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 2: one and a half rounds is plus one sixty five,

513
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:31,439
Speaker 2: probably comparable in terms of like edge and pricing as

514
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:34,040
Speaker 2: Billy's bet, which is Shabazi and to win in rounds

515
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:36,720
Speaker 2: one or two at plus one fifteen, So go ahead, Billy.

516
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:39,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean that's that's how he's won all but

517
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 3: one of his fights in his career is in the

518
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:43,439
Speaker 3: first two rounds. He had a split decision on the

519
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 3: Contender Series, where if I remember correctly, I didn't watch

520
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:48,320
Speaker 3: this tape because it was a long time ago, he

521
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 3: got beat pretty badly in the third round, and that's

522
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 3: how he got to a split decision.

523
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 4: Like, just for whatever reason, the cardio is not there.

524
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 3: I think Budka has probably gotten the message loud and

525
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:00,119
Speaker 3: clear that he's got to go for something here. He

526
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 3: missed weight for that fight against Petrowski and it was

527
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 3: a really boring fight, and he's lost both of his

528
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:08,720
Speaker 3: first two fights in the UFC. I if nothing else,

529
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:10,159
Speaker 3: you got to go out there and try if you're

530
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:13,160
Speaker 3: Dylan Budka, and I hope that leaves some openings for Shabazi.

531
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 3: And I just don't think Dylan Budka is very good.

532
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 3: I think we're trying to use him to get Shabazi

533
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 3: and rolling again because he's been the up and coming

534
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:23,720
Speaker 3: prospect for like twenty six years now who just needs

535
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:27,120
Speaker 3: to strengthen wins together after starting real hot. But yeah,

536
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:31,120
Speaker 3: I like the SGP angle that you mentioned to get

537
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 3: you know, the first half or so of round two,

538
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 3: because he's gonna come out round to a little bit

539
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 3: fresher again, right like he gets that minute break. I

540
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 3: think it finish is probably more likely in the first

541
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:42,040
Speaker 3: minute of round two than it is the last minute

542
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:44,920
Speaker 3: of round one or whatever. So play with that, get

543
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:47,879
Speaker 3: whatever odds you want if he wins, though it's almost

544
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 3: certainly how it's going to happen, so makes sense.

545
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:51,440
Speaker 4: And again with the.

546
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 3: SGP throwing a knockout, if you want juice it up

547
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 3: a little bit more. I don't think you're getting a

548
00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 3: great price adjustment on that because that's how pretty much

549
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 3: everyone's is it going.

550
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 4: But also an option.

551
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then Buck probably a live target halfway through

552
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:07,560
Speaker 2: the fight, not live after round one, because as you said,

553
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 2: Shabazian is still dangerous for the first couple of minutes

554
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:12,919
Speaker 2: of round two, but halfway through the fight, you know,

555
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:15,400
Speaker 2: Shabazian doesn't finish him at the start of round two.

556
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:18,639
Speaker 2: Interested in coming back on Bunckle live, provided it was

557
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:21,360
Speaker 2: not a ten eight round in round one, because it's

558
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 2: just very difficult to overcome the live market. That factors

559
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:29,000
Speaker 2: in like the draw odds. You saw that last week

560
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 2: with the of the Jimmy Cruit fight that was in

561
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:35,880
Speaker 2: a very obvious ten eight in round one. I saw

562
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,480
Speaker 2: people coming back on Balato and I was like, yes,

563
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 2: but he really needs to finish in order to fight,

564
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:44,280
Speaker 2: and it came close to it, but yeah, ultimately a

565
00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 2: split draw. There a couple other props for me on

566
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:50,960
Speaker 2: this card. My favorite of the bunch Jose Delgado inside

567
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 2: the distance at plus one oh five against Connor Matthews.

568
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:56,119
Speaker 2: I also like his knockout prop at about two to

569
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:59,719
Speaker 2: one projected the inside the distance line at minus one fifties,

570
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:02,399
Speaker 2: or than a ten percent edge. They're based on the

571
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 2: implied odds now got us from MMA Lab. He's the

572
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:07,680
Speaker 2: bigger man, three inches taller, two intre each advantage. He's

573
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 2: also the much better striker. Matthews is nickname the Controller

574
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:14,160
Speaker 2: because he just likes to hold on to opponents. There

575
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:18,159
Speaker 2: is very little danger there from him. He's also been

576
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 2: knocked out I believe three times regionally or starry three

577
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:25,480
Speaker 2: times in amateur one time professionally. I think there's a

578
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 2: big striking disparity between these two. Seems like a bit

579
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 2: of a layup for Jose Delgado in its first UFC fight,

580
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:35,160
Speaker 2: So inside the distance at plus one oh five knockout

581
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 2: at about two to one, I'll likely have on round

582
00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:42,680
Speaker 2: robin tickets, and then the Raphaelo Stevan Jesus Aglar fight.

583
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:46,000
Speaker 2: I projected this fight at minus one thirty. To go

584
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 2: to a decision, they're giving you plus money plus one fifteen.

585
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:51,919
Speaker 2: I also like a steve On by decision about plus

586
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:56,440
Speaker 2: one sixty five or so, but I just think there's

587
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:59,920
Speaker 2: more value on the GTD. Overall, there was a fifth

588
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 2: he sent difference between a stev On by decision and

589
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:05,920
Speaker 2: the fight to go to a decision seven inch reach

590
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:08,440
Speaker 2: advantage for a stev On, but also the much better wrestler.

591
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:13,400
Speaker 2: Aguilar is basically an overhand and a bunch of guillotine attempts,

592
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:16,959
Speaker 2: and that's his entire game. He's probably gonna spend twelve

593
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:20,200
Speaker 2: of the fifteen minutes on bottom here, unable to get up,

594
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 2: and hopefully he does not get finished in the process.

595
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 2: So fight to go to a decision, hopefully a boring

596
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 2: wrestling based decision for a stev On, and then a

597
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 2: stev On by decision. I'll put on round Robin Tickets

598
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:33,920
Speaker 2: projected that line at even money.

599
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:34,160
Speaker 1: Billy.

600
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:37,919
Speaker 2: Any thoughts on Delgado, Matthews or a stev On versus Aguilar.

601
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, Aguilar is hilarious.

602
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 3: Man, Like I love watching the fight because it's so

603
00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 3: dumb and we should, like we should all know what

604
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 3: he's doing by now.

605
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 4: It's not.

606
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:47,840
Speaker 3: It's not a secret, but yeah, that's fine. My only

607
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 3: real thought is I adjusted Jose Delgado north of Estebam

608
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 3: and my DFS projections when I saw how you're playing

609
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 3: both those in the show sheet, and it made it

610
00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 3: a lot of sense. I do think Delgado is the

611
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 3: far more likely finisher. Mathews got finished by Dennis Pazuka,

612
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 3: who you once said's best attribute was tries real hard,

613
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 3: and Delgatto is actually like good at stuff and probably

614
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 3: also tries hard.

615
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:11,680
Speaker 4: So that's yeah, I like that one.

616
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:14,960
Speaker 2: What's goes better in defat a round one like a

617
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 2: quick round one knockout or fifteen minutes the top time

618
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 2: like twelve minutes of top.

619
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 3: Time, so the control time doesn't score very well, finish

620
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:25,800
Speaker 3: his score, but takedowns score really well. So you're trying

621
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 3: to thread the needle of like al Jamain Sterling is

622
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:30,239
Speaker 3: gonna get eight takedowns, but let you up and then

623
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:33,680
Speaker 3: take you down again. So for that reason, that's why,

624
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:37,000
Speaker 3: like you want, it's kind of finishing and then takedowns.

625
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 4: And then control time is like the the priority chart

626
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 4: for the most part.

627
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 3: So yeah, that's a first round finish, and both these

628
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 3: guys are highly priced, so you kind of need either

629
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:48,800
Speaker 3: finish or like five six takedowns for them to pay off.

630
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 3: And del Gotta, I think is clearly more likely of

631
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 3: the two to get that. So yeah, definitely adjusted that

632
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:57,280
Speaker 3: because of your analysis, and as soon as I saw it,

633
00:29:57,280 --> 00:29:59,120
Speaker 3: I was like, yeah, that's that makes a hundred percent.

634
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'll probably be using Delgado everywhere. In terms

635
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 2: of DraftKings lineups this week, make sure go to Fantasy Labs.

636
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:07,680
Speaker 2: You can build out multiple lineups. You can you know,

637
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 2: locking guys that you want as part of all of

638
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 2: your lineups and then optimize lineups around that. I use

639
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 2: it every week to build out my DFS lineups. I

640
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,480
Speaker 2: think it's a super valuable tool. You can use Sean

641
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 2: Kerner's projections that are loaded in there. You can adjust

642
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 2: those projections manually and create all your lineups. So I'll

643
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 2: be hitting the lock button very likely on Delgada this

644
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:29,840
Speaker 2: week and trying to mix other combinations in and around him.

645
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 2: But one fight that probably will not be used in

646
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 2: terms of my DFS election is my best bet which

647
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 2: I like to go to a decision between Zine Sadakov

648
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:40,520
Speaker 2: and Ishmael bond Theme. I like this fight to go

649
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 2: to decision at minus one thirty. I projected it closer

650
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:46,800
Speaker 2: to minus one seventy. Seen a lot of people planting

651
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 2: flags on either site of this fight this week. I

652
00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 2: just think it's going to be competitive. I think Sadakov

653
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:55,239
Speaker 2: will probably outperform his money line odds and make this

654
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:57,680
Speaker 2: a little bit more competitive than the money line suggests.

655
00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 2: But I still view Ishmael bond Feme as the rightful favorite.

656
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:05,080
Speaker 2: I think he's more technical. I think he's a bit

657
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 2: more dangerous in terms of the grappling, but I don't

658
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 2: love his cardio or his durability as much as I

659
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:15,120
Speaker 2: like Sodakov. So do you see a pretty competitive fight

660
00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:18,120
Speaker 2: between these two. I think bond Fema live to a submission.

661
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 2: I think Sodakov live to a ko. But I do

662
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:23,480
Speaker 2: think it goes to the scorecards a bit more often

663
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 2: than the odds suggests, not necessarily a best bet this

664
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 2: week so much as a final bet. I kind of

665
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 2: like these, you know, as much as I like the

666
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 2: other totals. I like it as much as I like

667
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 2: the dogatoins have a distance in the under in that fight.

668
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 2: But this did stand out as one of my bigger

669
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 2: projected edges this week. Billy, any thoughts on the Sadakov

670
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 2: bon Fiem fight? And then you're gonna finish this off

671
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 2: with a pick'm fight between Angela Hill and Kaitlyn Susan.

672
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 4: No, that's that seems about right.

673
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,960
Speaker 3: It should be a competitive He got ten eight in

674
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 3: the third round against Slava Claus. Correct. Yeah, that's how

675
00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 3: we got to that majority of decisions. Oh yes, so yeah,

676
00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 3: I mean that's that's not a great sign.

677
00:31:59,400 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 4: I'm sorry.

678
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 2: The other way around, he ten aided Slava. He almost finished.

679
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:05,760
Speaker 4: Slava early and then faded late.

680
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 2: Was going to get the scorecards up again. It was

681
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:12,120
Speaker 2: round two. He got a ten eight on two of

682
00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 2: the cards in round two. He like nearly finished Slava

683
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:16,960
Speaker 2: in round two, and then Slava actually worked his way

684
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 2: back into the fight in round three, and it was

685
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 2: it was kind of tough to tell whether he was

686
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 2: gonna fade anyway, or if he faded because he went

687
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:26,440
Speaker 2: for the finish. I think he more so faded because

688
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 2: he went for the finish. So I'd still kind of

689
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 2: favor Sodokov on Cardio over Bonfime, but I don't think,

690
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:34,959
Speaker 2: you know, I don't think either of them has elite

691
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 2: cardiover the division.

692
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:39,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, the cardio angle is always tough too, because if

693
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 3: both guys get tired, we get a decision. If one

694
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 3: guy gets tired before the other, then it lends you

695
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 3: the ops away. But yeah, I like that, and then

696
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 3: mine also very much a final bet. Like not strong

697
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 3: feelings on that, but if you just looked at their

698
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:58,960
Speaker 3: last couple of fights, especially since Katln'su'sa moved divisions against

699
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 3: Angela Hill.

700
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 4: You'd say, yeah, this is about what the line should be.

701
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:04,840
Speaker 3: Right they've been, you know, Angela Hill lost a semi

702
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 3: close decision to Tabitha heg beat Luana Paniro. Kaitlyn Suzzo's

703
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 3: won both of her fights at one fifteen, but against

704
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:17,560
Speaker 3: low ish level competition. Although I like Uruguay, if you

705
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:19,680
Speaker 3: you know, just looked at that, there's an eleven year

706
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 3: age gap. Angela Hill's on the wrong side of forty.

707
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:25,719
Speaker 3: I've probably said this for like twelve straight Angela Hill

708
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:28,959
Speaker 3: fights or something, but at some point she's gonna fall off, right, Like,

709
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:32,560
Speaker 3: she can't keep doing this forever. It is the lightest

710
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 3: weight class in the UFC. We always talk about the

711
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 3: lighter the weight class, they tend to age faster. I

712
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 3: don't know if that necessarily applies differently with women than men,

713
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 3: but the logic is still there that it's more speed

714
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 3: and quickness dependent. You know, she's roughly fifty to fifty

715
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 3: over the period I've been saying she's gonna fall off

716
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:53,880
Speaker 3: any minute. So it hasn't worked out horribly for me.

717
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 3: She hasn't fallen off. I just think Kaitlyn Sue's a

718
00:33:57,280 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 3: huge athletic advantage again, looked really good again.

719
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:02,320
Speaker 4: Yasmin Oruguay, who I'm somewhat high on.

720
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 3: If it happens here, it's like basically a free bet,

721
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 3: and if it doesn't happen here, it's still a close fight.

722
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 3: So we're clipping flipping a coin if Angela Hill is

723
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 3: still Angela Hill and kind of getting free year old

724
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:16,319
Speaker 3: if she doesn't. So final bet, not a best bet,

725
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 3: but yeah, that's where I'm going with it.

726
00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, target Hill live after round one. I want to

727
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:22,759
Speaker 2: see how she looks. You know, as you mentioned, she's

728
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:25,879
Speaker 2: in her forties now, Jared canned here, it is forties now.

729
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 2: Rodriguez likely to be his best early in the fight.

730
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:31,320
Speaker 2: You know, he's never gone five rounds. I think with

731
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:33,160
Speaker 2: both the first not the first time of the car

732
00:34:33,200 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 2: But this sues a Hill fight, I think, very similar

733
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 2: to the main event. Look at the forty one year old.

734
00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:39,239
Speaker 2: See how they're doing in round one? Are they competitive?

735
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 4: You know?

736
00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:43,120
Speaker 2: Are they In Canaoner's case, is he denying takedowns? Is

737
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 2: he getting back up from takedowns? In Hill's case, is

738
00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:49,120
Speaker 2: she landing takedowns? Is she attempting takedowns? Because I do

739
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:52,000
Speaker 2: think she has a potential wrestling advantage in this fight.

740
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:55,080
Speaker 2: She's shown better grappling of late later in her career.

741
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,360
Speaker 2: She's continued to make improvements as she's gotten older as

742
00:34:57,400 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 2: a fighter, which is extremely impressive. But that athletic cliff

743
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:03,800
Speaker 2: is going to come at some point, and in your forties,

744
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:06,919
Speaker 2: it is increasingly likely with each and every fight. But yeah,

745
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:10,200
Speaker 2: he'll live after round one. I would consider just based

746
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 2: on how she looks in the first round. If it's competitive,

747
00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:16,920
Speaker 2: you know what, her price clows out. Absolutely take a stab,

748
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:19,319
Speaker 2: particularly if she hasn't shot a takedown to that point,

749
00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:20,960
Speaker 2: because if she has that in her back pocket, if

750
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 2: she's able to mix it up, and she hasn't shown

751
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:25,560
Speaker 2: it yet, but she's competitive in the striking, I think

752
00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:27,640
Speaker 2: I'd be interested in a live entry. Just want to

753
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:29,879
Speaker 2: shout out the other potential live entries on this card.

754
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:32,920
Speaker 2: I mentioned Dylan Buca probably halfway through the fight, you know,

755
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:35,719
Speaker 2: near the end of round two. Midway through round two,

756
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 2: Sadakov potentially live after round one, talked about Angela Hill, Chaos,

757
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:47,120
Speaker 2: Williams Vince Morels. Maybe you know you talked about Elijah

758
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:49,960
Speaker 2: Smith coming off of a short notice Contender Series fight,

759
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 2: So take a look at how the wrestling is going

760
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 2: in that fight. If Smith is able to land takedowns,

761
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:55,880
Speaker 2: I don't want any part of morales. If Moreles is

762
00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 2: denying takedowns, I think that fight will be competitive for

763
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:04,359
Speaker 2: fifteen minutes. Lastly, Dantel May's live after round one as

764
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:08,080
Speaker 2: well against Walter Walker, Johnny Walker's brother Billy. We didn't

765
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:09,640
Speaker 2: touch on that fight. We didn't touch on the first

766
00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:11,839
Speaker 2: fright on the card. Any thoughts though before we got

767
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:14,280
Speaker 2: out of here on the Dantell Mays fight or anything

768
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 2: to get to No.

769
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 3: I mean this is this is a great one to

770
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 3: take the first hour or the card off. If you're

771
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:22,720
Speaker 3: not like you're I don't think you're gonna miss anything.

772
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:22,960
Speaker 2: No.

773
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:25,760
Speaker 3: Walker is weird, Like in theory he should be better.

774
00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 3: But his win in the UFC was a heel hook

775
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 3: where Junior Tafa like made some noise and the ref

776
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 3: just waved it off with two seconds left in the round.

777
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:37,960
Speaker 4: And I don't know if it was really on.

778
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:40,840
Speaker 3: Or not, and like he made some noise, but he

779
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 3: didn't get up and limp away because his ACL was torn.

780
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:45,879
Speaker 3: So it's hard to argue that that was early on,

781
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:48,319
Speaker 3: Like if you take that win away, I don't know

782
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:50,239
Speaker 3: that this line is what it is with that sid.

783
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 4: I was sick this week. I didn't watch tape on

784
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 4: every fight.

785
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 3: I certainly did not want to watch any tape on

786
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 3: Walter Walker or Dantel May's or Julia Evila is also

787
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:01,759
Speaker 3: is she not or close to it?

788
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:06,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, the hair certainly makes her look forty. I believe

789
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 2: she's in her earlate thirties, but yeah, Julia Alvla the

790
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:12,960
Speaker 2: Raging Panda first fight on the card. Yeah, nothing really

791
00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:16,000
Speaker 2: for me on either the Avili fight or the Maze

792
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 2: Walker fight, asides from the Maze Live angle. Technically, I

793
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 2: projected value on Avala by decision. I think Cavalcante just

794
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:24,560
Speaker 2: too big for her, much younger likely to pick her

795
00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:27,640
Speaker 2: apart in the striking, and I think I think that'll

796
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 2: do it for us. For our UFC betting preview for

797
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 2: this weekend, you can find more UFC content for both

798
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 2: Billy and myself on Action network dot com. You can

799
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:37,920
Speaker 2: find his comin event preview and my main event preview

800
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:41,239
Speaker 2: will be up later on Friday afternoon. Remember, if you'd

801
00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:43,239
Speaker 2: like to instantly tail some of the bets that we

802
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:45,320
Speaker 2: discussed today on this show, look for the quick slip

803
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:48,960
Speaker 2: link in the podcast and video description, or visit Action

804
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:52,720
Speaker 2: network dot com slash bet now. Don't forget to download

805
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:54,600
Speaker 2: the free award winning Action and Work Gap and sign

806
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:58,799
Speaker 2: up for Action Pro immediate access to expert picks and analysis.

807
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 2: Best of luck with all your bets is we can

808
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:02,759
Speaker 2: enjoy the violence. Thank you for listening. See you next time.

809
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:13,919
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

810
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:17,160
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811
00:38:17,440 --> 00:38:20,040
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812
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