Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside
Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring
Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. But one of the
Speaker 1: I guess results of the pandemic has been a migration move.
Speaker 1: I mean a lot of folks leaving like New York
Speaker 1: City and they're going and the other and the coasts
Speaker 1: and the high cost, high tax areas and go into
Speaker 1: places like I don't know, Nashville, Tennessee, Austin, Texas, and
Speaker 1: the great state of North Carolina has been a beneficiary
Speaker 1: of that as well, and we want to break that down.
Speaker 1: We're gonna do that today. We're fortunate to have here
Speaker 1: in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio Michelle Baker Sanders, North
Speaker 1: Carolina Secretary of Commerce, and Mike Fox, President and CEO
Speaker 1: of the Piedmont Triad Partnership. Uh So, Michelle and Mike,
Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. Michelle talked to
Speaker 1: us about the state of North Carolina and what you
Speaker 1: guys have experienced from a commerce perspective, a business perspective
Speaker 1: over the last several years. Thank you. Over the last
Speaker 1: several years, what we have experienced is at UM booming
Speaker 1: growth and a momentum with some I believe attraction UH
Speaker 1: bringing an in migration of people, families, and jobs. As
Speaker 1: you mentioned, UM over the past couple of years, despite
Speaker 1: the pandemic and UH concerns about a recession and the
Speaker 1: labor sup wild market, we have broken records when it
Speaker 1: comes to the number of job creation creation created and
Speaker 1: the capital investment into the state. UM. I'd specifically her
Speaker 1: at highlight the Carolina Core, which we're gonna hopefully talk about.
Speaker 1: So the Carolina Core UM is a region of North
Speaker 1: Carolina Central Region which is anchored by UM high Point
Speaker 1: Winston Salem and then with Greensboro. And within that region
Speaker 1: they have seen UM extraordinary success, especially in the e
Speaker 1: V space and semiconductor space, all the advancing technology and
Speaker 1: advanced manufacturing and so over the past year or so,
Speaker 1: they have UM attracted over fifteen billion dollars billion dollars
Speaker 1: in capital investment and as a result of that created
Speaker 1: UM sixteen thousand jobs, and so, as you just mentioned,
Speaker 1: people are looking for a great place to live, a
Speaker 1: great place to start business, and a place where they
Speaker 1: can thrive. And that's what we have found in North Carolina.
Speaker 1: And the example I'm highlighting the Carolina Core is definitely
Speaker 1: a place that it's experienced in that you have and
Speaker 1: you have a lot of experience manufacturing as well. Right,
Speaker 1: you come from Biogen, You were working at a number
Speaker 1: of different manufacturers, global manufacturers before this UM and we're
Speaker 1: just appointed Secretary Commerce kind of smack dab in the
Speaker 1: middle of the pandemic right February. Has that driven you think,
Speaker 1: more manufacts acturers as we kind of unwind these global
Speaker 1: supply chains or at least try and produce more locally.
Speaker 1: Has that driven a migration to your state? Um? I
Speaker 1: believe that that might. The migration that we experience and
Speaker 1: has been building over a number of years because of
Speaker 1: many visionaries across the state and the great investments that
Speaker 1: have been made by the state as well as other
Speaker 1: partners across the state like the university, community college system
Speaker 1: and business owners in the state. UM, you're correct. I
Speaker 1: spent about thirty years in the biotech life science industry.
Speaker 1: So I connect deeply with manufacturing, and as you know,
Speaker 1: that's a core competency for North Carolina. We have the
Speaker 1: largest manufacturing UH talent pool in the southeastern US, and
Speaker 1: advanced manufacturing, which I missioned earlier UM has been UM
Speaker 1: something that we have leveraged and built on that strength.
Speaker 1: We're continuing to see it grow and we're expecting to
Speaker 1: and anticipate in even more growth an advanced manufacturing. So, Mike,
Speaker 1: you're the CEO of the Piedmont Triad Partnership. When I
Speaker 1: think of the Piedmont Tried, I think Winston, Salem, Burlington
Speaker 1: and all those kinds of stuff. I think, you know,
Speaker 1: making furniture, textiles and things like that. How was that
Speaker 1: part of the state kind of tobacco of course, how
Speaker 1: is that part of the state kind of evolved over
Speaker 1: the last decade or so, so we've really made a
Speaker 1: great transition to advanced manufacturing. We have a history of
Speaker 1: manufacturing in that area, particularly with the textiles and the furniture,
Speaker 1: and we've seen those industries shrink or go off shore.
Speaker 1: That's sad because it's some of the greatest furniture you
Speaker 1: can buy. It's still is some of the best furniture
Speaker 1: you can source in the country. And we still have
Speaker 1: a thriving furniture industry. The world's largest furniture market is
Speaker 1: in High Point twice a year every year. So what
Speaker 1: we've seen is more niche manufacturing there. Uh. At the
Speaker 1: same with textiles, those have moved to more medical specialty garments,
Speaker 1: not just the commodities. But this advanced manufacturing has really
Speaker 1: taken hold. We You've had the foresight to develop some
Speaker 1: large sites to attract large transformational projects like Toyota, then
Speaker 1: fast Wolf Speed and Boom Supersonic at our airport. And
Speaker 1: so we started we were sitting you know, a year
Speaker 1: ago literally with four legitimate mega sites, you know, with
Speaker 1: a lot of interest but no tenants. And within the
Speaker 1: space of a year we've had four large announcements of
Speaker 1: tenants that the Secretary mentioned that total those fifteen billion
Speaker 1: investment and you know, approximately twenty thousand new jobs. What's
Speaker 1: driven I mean, secretary points out this has been developing
Speaker 1: for years and we I think Paul and I both
Speaker 1: have seen North Carolina really develop UM. But the pandemic
Speaker 1: coupled with you know, the money UM that was pushed
Speaker 1: into the economy and the Chips Act have to be
Speaker 1: huge drivers. They are, and you know, quite simply, I
Speaker 1: think one of the answers is the rest of the
Speaker 1: world is realizing what we've known for a long time
Speaker 1: that North Carolina is a great place to live, to work,
Speaker 1: to play. It's also got an incredible business climate. Thanks
Speaker 1: to Secretary Sanders, Governor Cooper, and our legislature, we have
Speaker 1: very favorable uh, you know, business laws and and a
Speaker 1: tax situation. But primarily to your point, with the pandemic,
Speaker 1: I think reshoring has become a lot more of a focus. Uh.
Speaker 1: The supply chain dynamics going from just in time to
Speaker 1: just in case have become important, and I think manufacturers
Speaker 1: want to be able to have their supply chain closer
Speaker 1: to them and not worry about is it sitting on
Speaker 1: a container somewhere in the Pacific Ocean exactly. And so
Speaker 1: Secretary representing the state of North Carolina, when you are
Speaker 1: courting business, when you're saying to a you know, a
Speaker 1: Toyota or so many, you need to really think about
Speaker 1: coming to our state. Who do you find yourself competing against?
Speaker 1: Most often we find ourselves competing against, uh, the global market. Um,
Speaker 1: there are certain states I'm sure that companies tend to
Speaker 1: have an attraction to but we are competing against the
Speaker 1: global markets. So that's why it's so important for us
Speaker 1: did not only highlight our assets such as the university
Speaker 1: of the community college system, the quality of life UM,
Speaker 1: the cost of doing business in North Carolina UM, as
Speaker 1: well as UM the talent pool, the diverse and skilled
Speaker 1: talent pool. It's important for us to highlight those assets,
Speaker 1: but it's also important for UH those companies to experience
Speaker 1: North Carolina, to visit us and experience the people, the culture, UM,
Speaker 1: you know, experience what their employees with experience when they
Speaker 1: come to North Carolina. And so that's what we UM
Speaker 1: enjoy and and like to show and give that experience. UM.
Speaker 1: We also, you know, we're courting companies to come to
Speaker 1: North Carolina and businesses. But I believe what's unique is
Speaker 1: that we are with those kind companies not only in
Speaker 1: that initial period, that courtship period. Once we marry, once
Speaker 1: we bring them to North Carolina, we are intend and
Speaker 1: we work with them and partner with them throughout the
Speaker 1: longevity of their business. Talk to us about infrastructure in
Speaker 1: the state. For example, when I was a duke, the
Speaker 1: Raleig Durham Airport was like a grass grass strip. Now
Speaker 1: it's this huge airport modern I mean is that? I
Speaker 1: mean it seems like the infrastructure in the state is
Speaker 1: getting better and better and better. How much of the
Speaker 1: requirement is that when you're talking to against some of
Speaker 1: these big corporations. North Carolina has invested deeply in infrastructure
Speaker 1: and because of that we have been successful, as we've discussed,
Speaker 1: with economic development and building more resilient communities across the
Speaker 1: state UM, and the airports are surely a part of
Speaker 1: that UM. You know, within the Carolina core, we have
Speaker 1: access to airports in the areas you know Charlotte Greensboro
Speaker 1: has airport ore I do you UM. We also have
Speaker 1: ports that are part of our transportation infrastructure, and we
Speaker 1: invest heavily in communities to to build a sewer and
Speaker 1: water systems that are required to support these businesses. As
Speaker 1: you know, UM for semiconductor industry and advanced manufacturing utilities,
Speaker 1: the cost of energy, the cost of doing business matters
Speaker 1: and it's very important and so within North Carolina we
Speaker 1: prioritize that UM to attract and to retain and help
Speaker 1: businesses grow for those for those people who haven't spent
Speaker 1: much time in North Carolina. Let's define the core or
Speaker 1: the Piedmont Triad. What exactly is that. So it's roughly
Speaker 1: add twenty miles stretch that runs from Greensboro, Winston Salem
Speaker 1: and high Point, which is traditionally known as the Triad
Speaker 1: down up in the north, down to Fayetteville and kind
Speaker 1: of the southeast, and it follows roughly Highway for twenty one,
Speaker 1: which has recently received designation as a future industry that
Speaker 1: would connect the Triad and points west all the way
Speaker 1: to uh Wilkesboro and potentially Boon down to Fayettville. And
Speaker 1: of course Fayetteville is the nation the home of the
Speaker 1: nation's largest military base in Fort Bragg. And those retiring
Speaker 1: service members who regularly you know, decide they want to
Speaker 1: stay in North Carolina, those are a great source of
Speaker 1: talent for our employers, and so being able to have
Speaker 1: that connection to that area, to the Triad and also
Speaker 1: to Charlotte and Raleigh is important for us in terms
Speaker 1: of developing our workforce. See I think of North Carolina
Speaker 1: just been a student there. I got the eastern part,
Speaker 1: which is kind of the beach. Are close to the beach,
Speaker 1: then the west is amazing mountains Asheville, North Carolina, one
Speaker 1: of my favorite places to go exactly. The music scene,
Speaker 1: the culture of the arts amazing there. And then you
Speaker 1: got everything in the middle, which I call the middle,
Speaker 1: but now you guys call the cord and all that
Speaker 1: kind of stuff. But that's kind of where a lot
Speaker 1: of development is taking place. Real quick, Secretary urtp Research
Speaker 1: Triangle Park that's been there for decades generations, is that's
Speaker 1: still a for technology restarts Triangle part is still a
Speaker 1: thing for technology in North Carolina. Al Right, that's good
Speaker 1: stuff because I think of North Carolina State, University of
Speaker 1: North Carolina, Chapel Hill Boo and Duke University. Um, you
Speaker 1: put those two and plus you got Wake Farcet close by.
Speaker 1: It's that's kind of been the source of research, tronical parks,
Speaker 1: I think stuff. So it's just been awesome, so good
Speaker 1: to talk about it. We had some Chicago pm MY
Speaker 1: data came in a little bit weaker today, but it
Speaker 1: just goes to show kind of where some of the
Speaker 1: Chicago Chicago very far away from Charlotte exactly. So good
Speaker 1: North Carolina discussion here. Michelle Baker Sanders, North Carolina Secretary
Speaker 1: of Commerce and Mike Fox, president CEO of Pete Montrey,
Speaker 1: is there by the way, a rivalry with South Carolina
Speaker 1: at all, because I always think of Spartanburg being a
Speaker 1: gear head, you know, uh, the BMW plant down there
Speaker 1: is there is a little bit of we compete with
Speaker 1: South Carolina and um so they're a part of the
Speaker 1: Southeastern family. But let's be clear, we do compete. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's what I was wondering about their their sec these
Speaker 1: North Carolina's acc all right, I want to switch gears
Speaker 1: because we had a trade that happened in m and
Speaker 1: A trade over the last couple of days. I got
Speaker 1: my attention because A it's involves banks, uh and be
Speaker 1: it's M and A and I like M and A fees.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna get Paul Goldberg in here. Paul's the
Speaker 1: senior equity research channels with Boomberg Intelligence. He covers the
Speaker 1: banks talk to us about this deal. Bank of Canada
Speaker 1: is buying h species Canadian unit. So the biggest investment
Speaker 1: bank in Canada is getting even bigger. Yeah, thank you
Speaker 1: for having me, Paul. This is absolutely correct. RBC is
Speaker 1: the largest bank in Canada in cross retail in many
Speaker 1: cases across business landing, so you look at different categories,
Speaker 1: they have in some cases more than that of the market.
Speaker 1: So they are buying the number seven bank. And this
Speaker 1: is an extremely unique opportunity in Canada because most of
Speaker 1: the Canadian loans and deposits have basically distributed between the
Speaker 1: six banks. So, and we were just hearing about higher,
Speaker 1: stronger net interest margins um in terms of some US banks,
Speaker 1: I assume the situation is the same there. Right as
Speaker 1: we see rates pick up around the world, banks start
Speaker 1: to recover those margins. It's actually very interesting and very similar,
Speaker 1: but it's shifting already in the US and Canada. RBC
Speaker 1: actually reported their fourth quarter earliest this morning, so the
Speaker 1: rates momentum was running out. It's been very strong for them.
Speaker 1: They probably still going to see another ten fifteen basis
Speaker 1: points in the first half in terms of net interest
Speaker 1: margin expansion, but that will slow down throughout the year
Speaker 1: and a lot of the banks are starting to hedge
Speaker 1: for slowdown and interesting already already. Well. RBC was a
Speaker 1: case in point this morning. They owned City National Bank
Speaker 1: in the US, so they're heading out both the US
Speaker 1: and Canada. They not They're not position into rates, turning
Speaker 1: over and go next going the addit direction. But they
Speaker 1: are trying to hedge out that upside, not negative, hopefully
Speaker 1: never negative again, well not negative. But I hear you,
Speaker 1: I hear instead of jacking up seventy five or fifty
Speaker 1: basis points and meeting, at some point, they're gonna start
Speaker 1: to cut. And even Gina Martin Adams, I think we
Speaker 1: were just hearing from critious think thinks the next year
Speaker 1: we'll see fifty basis points of cuts. That'd be nice.
Speaker 1: That's got to be good for the markets. My bullish call,
Speaker 1: I mean, hopefully they get some build up, some dry
Speaker 1: powder before that, right exactly? Yeah, alright, So Paul, we
Speaker 1: got you know, Royal Bank of Canada, quality quality player,
Speaker 1: doubling down on investment banking. They're in Canada. What's their
Speaker 1: bullish call on Canada? Do you think we're If I'm
Speaker 1: in a banker, how do how do I make money
Speaker 1: in Canada over the next five years? Well, it's kinda
Speaker 1: there's a closed ecosystem right in terms of the banking.
Speaker 1: They're only a handful of banks. They're fifty banks in
Speaker 1: total in Canada, okay, uh, and six of them essentially
Speaker 1: around the market. So whatever the banks can do and
Speaker 1: whenever they can get their hands and they expending the
Speaker 1: market here in that very unique asset, they do it.
Speaker 1: So why why does the Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corporation
Speaker 1: want to sell? Well, I will defer to our European
Speaker 1: analysts who cover it, but I will mention that they
Speaker 1: did no, no no, no, But they will mention that that
Speaker 1: they did have came down to their lower end of
Speaker 1: the capitol range where they wanted to be, and that
Speaker 1: transaction what John Tye said in this note added about
Speaker 1: a hundred thirty basis points of c to one capital.
Speaker 1: So that puts them in a very good position in
Speaker 1: terms of capital potentially by bags. All right, talk to
Speaker 1: us about the Canadian residential housing market. That's different there
Speaker 1: than it is here. It's a bigger part of the
Speaker 1: you know, a consumer's total net worth than it is. Well,
Speaker 1: and it was on fire for a while, right. I
Speaker 1: don't know what are the banks saying about the real
Speaker 1: estate market up there. It's slowing down very dramatically. It's
Speaker 1: not just the band what the banks they're saying. We've
Speaker 1: seen that in the numbers. Uh, But RBC, for example,
Speaker 1: just this morning they see and it's still growing in
Speaker 1: the mid single digits. Not the prices, not the sales,
Speaker 1: but the mortgage loans because people still need to refinance.
Speaker 1: Can this slightly different market. They don't have the thirty
Speaker 1: year mortgages. The mortgages refinance every five years, so there's
Speaker 1: a lot of turnover. That's right, That's what I was
Speaker 1: thinking about. Yeah, they have much more interest rate risk
Speaker 1: than we. They have more interest rate risk, but that
Speaker 1: a lot of the interest rate risk on the customer,
Speaker 1: not on the not on the bank cooking refinance. All right,
Speaker 1: good stuff, Paul Goldberg, He covers a lot of the
Speaker 1: banking stuff, including Canada for Bloomberg intell just just want
Speaker 1: to get the latest on what was a pretty big
Speaker 1: m and a trade up in kinda Royal Bank of
Speaker 1: Canada acquiring HSPCs Canadian unit, doubling down on their investment banking.
Speaker 1: Lamborghini is unveiling its latest twoundred seventy thousand dollars supercar
Speaker 1: that apparently is ready to take drivers off the highway
Speaker 1: and onto the dirts. We welcome now are Bloomberg Televi
Speaker 1: an audience, our radio and listeners because we're joined by
Speaker 1: Stephan Winkelman, he is the Lamborghini CEO and chair joining
Speaker 1: us as well a very excited Bloomberg's Matt Miller um Stefan,
Speaker 1: thank you very very much, indeed your time. Why are
Speaker 1: you taking Lamborghini off road? Can Serrato is our last
Speaker 1: internal combustion engine car only, so it's the last launch
Speaker 1: we are going to do with a car like this.
Speaker 1: And I think that the Lamborghini always was easy and
Speaker 1: wars and expected unexpected. It will continue to be so.
Speaker 1: So I think to have an old in car is
Speaker 1: something which is incredible and it's really fun to drive,
Speaker 1: and it's very much sticking to our DNA and all.
Speaker 1: We have a permanent bob we drive system on this car.
Speaker 1: There's more ground clearance, so it's very easy to drive
Speaker 1: on the on the normal roads, on the race sick,
Speaker 1: but also of on on gravel road. So it's fun,
Speaker 1: it's performing, but it's also a life cycle for the
Speaker 1: for big sit. Stephen Guy was asking me yesterday like
Speaker 1: why would I need an off road Lamborghini um and
Speaker 1: I pointed out that we have, you know, six to
Speaker 1: eight inch potholes in the major highways around New York City.
Speaker 1: That's the same in all of the major cities around
Speaker 1: well in Europe at least, and here in the US.
Speaker 1: Is that part of the draw, like if I'm driving
Speaker 1: at a Venta door um I drove on recently around
Speaker 1: Barcelona and it's kind of terrifying with such low ground clearance.
Speaker 1: Is that part of the draw of one of these
Speaker 1: lifted Lambos. But I think we always tried to do
Speaker 1: something which is new and which was never there before,
Speaker 1: and already years back we were looking into an opportunity
Speaker 1: to do it. Seems it seemed very difficult to achieve.
Speaker 1: But then when I came back to Lamborghini a couple
Speaker 1: of years ago, we refocused on it and we made it.
Speaker 1: And for sure it's a car which is very much
Speaker 1: fitting into our environment because the situation of the infrastructure,
Speaker 1: as you said, no in Europe, but also yeah, in
Speaker 1: the US, is not the best one when it comes
Speaker 1: to to the to the to the streets, so it's
Speaker 1: very easy to drive, also with the roads which are
Speaker 1: not in the best condition. Definitely strikes me that Folkswagen
Speaker 1: may have brought you back to Lamborghini, not just because
Speaker 1: you know the business and you're a great operator. But
Speaker 1: because they may want an I p O the brand,
Speaker 1: they just did it very successfully with Porsche, even in
Speaker 1: a tough market. Have you prepared Lambeau for an IPL No,
Speaker 1: there's nothing which we are doing to prepare an IPO,
Speaker 1: So this is not on our agenda timing. Okay, okay,
Speaker 1: But but your margins, Stefan are looking phenomenal. You've got
Speaker 1: margins that the bit margins that are better than Ferraris
Speaker 1: right now. I'm assuming that the new car as well
Speaker 1: will only improve those margins. Are these martins as high
Speaker 1: as they are because you you are sending this message
Speaker 1: that this is a business that people would want to buy.
Speaker 1: But I think that what we're doing is to work
Speaker 1: on the product, to work on the brand, to do
Speaker 1: the best we can with all the opportunities we have
Speaker 1: on our base models and all the events and or
Speaker 1: the hula can and the urdles to create very rates
Speaker 1: and the brand is very young and fresh. So it's
Speaker 1: also inviting us to to attempt new territories and to
Speaker 1: launch things like the Serato and the results are very positive,
Speaker 1: not only in the United States but all over the world.
Speaker 1: And we're always selling more cars so far then we
Speaker 1: are able to produce and this is creating already an
Speaker 1: order bank which is exceeding creating months, and this is
Speaker 1: very positive. Also looking into the future, which is going
Speaker 1: to be hybrid from twenty onwards and which will be
Speaker 1: then concluded by the end of four So we now
Speaker 1: have the Starato, we also have the the nine eleven Tacca,
Speaker 1: and I understand there has been some cooperation conversations between
Speaker 1: you and Posta as as these cars have evolved. How
Speaker 1: close is that relationship right now, Stefan. We are big groups,
Speaker 1: so when we speak, when the brands come together, for
Speaker 1: sure there are there is a clear positioning of the
Speaker 1: different brands and of the cars. But everybody is proud
Speaker 1: on doing his own product and he's trying to do
Speaker 1: and to create the best out of what he has
Speaker 1: in his doors. And I think that this is very good.
Speaker 1: Then they set out towards just approved on how how
Speaker 1: much our engineers and also our marketing people in the
Speaker 1: in general, our people in the Stageta Bolognese are passionate
Speaker 1: about what we're doing. Stephan. I'm lucky enough to bend
Speaker 1: the Santa Aguta a few times. I've senior production facilities,
Speaker 1: recommend everyone who gets a chance goes and tours the factory.
Speaker 1: How much is that going to change when you go
Speaker 1: to hybridization or electric cars. Are you going to have
Speaker 1: a new infrastructure footprint? For sure? We are in fact
Speaker 1: now we are the super sports car factory with the
Speaker 1: Hohoda Can and the event of follower is now changing
Speaker 1: a lot. We are building a new assembly line which
Speaker 1: when the new Hooda Can is a hybrid is coming
Speaker 1: at the end of four will not be too as
Speaker 1: it today, but there will be then one line which
Speaker 1: is being able to produce both of the super sports guys.
Speaker 1: So we're doing a lot. It's not only about the
Speaker 1: product and let's say the marketing, but it's also a
Speaker 1: lot about what we're doing our factory and how we
Speaker 1: work also without supplies, also changing all the people with
Speaker 1: the new types of a job descriptions, a different intelligence,
Speaker 1: and all the things which are going around the hybridization,
Speaker 1: electification with battery technology. So when you get I mean
Speaker 1: massive margins, everybody loves these limited edition vehicles. Are you
Speaker 1: planning on producing more of those before you change the
Speaker 1: production facilities? But you know by the beginning of next year.
Speaker 1: Actually we will have a last incredible surprise on the
Speaker 1: B twelve engine. Only there will be a very nice
Speaker 1: announcement which I will not anticipate too much, but in
Speaker 1: generally will do a big announcement about a single car
Speaker 1: which is going to be phenomenal. And this system still
Speaker 1: based on our actual bat Wealth engine and we're very
Speaker 1: proud to talk about this when we are doing the announcement.
Speaker 1: And again in order, can you can you reserve one
Speaker 1: for me back for the next one. You know, we
Speaker 1: have a queue. We have a lot of our customers
Speaker 1: which are applying to create and we're together with us
Speaker 1: one off, but they stakes years and we are doing
Speaker 1: these things only once in a while. Matt's one off
Speaker 1: as well. I think he should definitely go to the
Speaker 1: top of the queue. Stepan come back in January. We'll
Speaker 1: look forward to hearing about the new car. Thank you
Speaker 1: very much, indeed for your time today. You get it
Speaker 1: right to our next guest. James Stravitis retired admiral with
Speaker 1: the US Navy, having served thirty seven years. He served
Speaker 1: as a fifteenth Commander in US European Command and it's
Speaker 1: also Natives sixteen Supreme Allied commander in Europe is also
Speaker 1: a published author. His latest book is entitled twenty thirty four,
Speaker 1: a Novel of the Next World World Adam, thank you
Speaker 1: so much for joining us here. I'd love to just
Speaker 1: get your latest thinking on Ukraine. Where could this go
Speaker 1: in the coming days? Weeks? And dare say months? Yeah, unfortunately,
Speaker 1: I think it will be months, but I don't think
Speaker 1: it's going to be years. Um, let's put it this way.
Speaker 1: At the moment, it's a tale of two wars. One
Speaker 1: is being fought on the ground. The Ukrainians are winning
Speaker 1: that one. They're pushing the Russians back. I like their
Speaker 1: chances in ground warfare. The other war tail the two wars.
Speaker 1: The other one is an air war, which Putin is winning.
Speaker 1: He is has a much bigger air force. The Ukrainians
Speaker 1: don't have sufficient air defense to really knock it down,
Speaker 1: and therefore Putin is going after the electric grid, He's
Speaker 1: going to after water supplies. He's really committing war crimes
Speaker 1: going after the civilian population. So he's winning in the air.
Speaker 1: Bottom line, if the US NATO to west, if we
Speaker 1: help the Ukrainians close their skies, giving them surface to
Speaker 1: air missiles. Patriot battery combat aircraft are under discussion. If
Speaker 1: we take those kind of steps, take the air war
Speaker 1: away from Putin, I think that pushes us toward a
Speaker 1: negotiation simply because Putin begins to run out and runway here,
Speaker 1: and I think that probably happens to put it all together,
Speaker 1: Matt and Paul, that probably happens in the late winter
Speaker 1: early spring of next year. Watch for this to go
Speaker 1: to a negotiation at that point. Wow. So, by the way,
Speaker 1: what is there to negotiate? I mean, the Ukrainians have
Speaker 1: said they will accept nothing less than the complete um
Speaker 1: pull out of Russia from all Ukrainian lands and territories. Yeah,
Speaker 1: we're on a business network here, and whenever you start
Speaker 1: a negotiation, uh, in business and or and love, you
Speaker 1: start with a maximum list position. I'd say that's what
Speaker 1: the Ukrainians correctly are conveying. At some point. Realistically, it's
Speaker 1: going to be very difficult for the Ukrainians to completely
Speaker 1: expel the Russia armed forces. That is why you have
Speaker 1: a negotiates And I would say our job in the
Speaker 1: West is to give the Ukrainians the tools to go
Speaker 1: to the negotiating cable and the strongest possible position admiral.
Speaker 1: Whose decision do you think ultimately will be to UH?
Speaker 1: I guess build up the air defenses the air forces
Speaker 1: of Ukraine like you suggest. Is this primarily a U
Speaker 1: S decision or this to be a broader NATO decision
Speaker 1: the latter And we just saw the NATO foreign ministers
Speaker 1: get together um in Europe, to include our own Secretary
Speaker 1: of State Tony B. Lincoln. They're backed up by the
Speaker 1: ministers of defense, are Secretary of Defense General Lloyd to
Speaker 1: Austin And those conversations are live, They're real. You're certainly
Speaker 1: going to see additional air defense flowing into Ukraine. The
Speaker 1: question that was under discussion continues to be as whether
Speaker 1: the Ukrainians should be provided combat aircraft, either MID twenty
Speaker 1: nine from Poland or F sixteen from the United States.
Speaker 1: I think we will probably end up providing those sometime
Speaker 1: in the months ahead. Is I mean, can you count
Speaker 1: on this administration to be there? Um for Ukraine? Can
Speaker 1: you count Washington to be there? It's not just in
Speaker 1: the hands of the president. Of course, now that the Republicans,
Speaker 1: a lot of whom do not want to continue um
Speaker 1: supplying Ukraine with money or supplies. UM. I think that
Speaker 1: there remains very strong bipartisan support. Certainly, you hear some
Speaker 1: cracking noises on the far right, and you hear some
Speaker 1: cracking noises on the far left. And I think that
Speaker 1: on this one the center will hold UM and you're
Speaker 1: going to continue to see, particularly on the Senate side.
Speaker 1: But I think even in the House, UM, I don't
Speaker 1: feel there's a ground swell that completely cut off E
Speaker 1: to Ukraine. That would be disastrous economically, it would be
Speaker 1: disastrous militarily and diplomatically go forward, it would send many
Speaker 1: wrong signals. I don't see that happening. I think Washington
Speaker 1: broadly will hold together. Might be some dimmusion of support,
Speaker 1: but I think that support broadly will continue. Admiral, how
Speaker 1: do you game out the putin risk if you will,
Speaker 1: that perhaps he does something you know, really unusual, unwise
Speaker 1: and it just really escalates this thing. I think that's
Speaker 1: a possibility, UM, and I would categorize it as the
Speaker 1: cards he's playing now cutting off hydrocarbons to Western Europe,
Speaker 1: hoping to crack their resolved. That will play out through
Speaker 1: the winter and this air campaign, this kind of carpet
Speaker 1: bombing of the infrastructure. He's gonna wait to see how
Speaker 1: those two cards play out. If neither of those produced
Speaker 1: for him the intended result, then he might reach for
Speaker 1: something more dramatic at the really dark end of the spectrum.
Speaker 1: He could consider the use of the tactical nuclear weapon.
Speaker 1: I think that's highly unlike he knows. It would cause
Speaker 1: a massive im media shift in global attitudes toward Russia.
Speaker 1: It would move that swing boat of India and Nigeria,
Speaker 1: South Africa, Brazil, those countries that are kind of in
Speaker 1: the middle on this. I don't think he goes there.
Speaker 1: That's why I think he starts to run out of
Speaker 1: options once these two cards I just mentioned get played. Um.
Speaker 1: I think that's why it's unlikely he'll be able to
Speaker 1: suddenly hit the script admire. On another note, you know
Speaker 1: I'm a huge fan of because I tell you pretty
Speaker 1: much every time you come on great book, and I've
Speaker 1: gotta ask when the next one is coming? Are you
Speaker 1: working on another novel? We are, and um I co
Speaker 1: wrote and novel of the Next World War with Elliott Ackerman,
Speaker 1: combat marine veteran. The next book is set entitled four
Speaker 1: and it's about artificial intelligence, cyber and challenges here domestically
Speaker 1: in the United States, civil disagreements in the United States
Speaker 1: come together mid century. That's like four. This novel is
Speaker 1: a work of cautionary fiction. We need to be careful
Speaker 1: as we move forward in these decades. Well, and it's
Speaker 1: kind of scary how prescient four already looks it does,
Speaker 1: and I hope it remains fictional exactly. All right, Admiral,
Speaker 1: thank you so much. We really appreciate it. Admiral James Trevites,
Speaker 1: retired U S. Navy, sixteenth Supreme Supreme Allied Commander in Europe,
Speaker 1: giving us his latest thoughts. Let's talk some technology, uh,
Speaker 1: and because that's always fun to talk about and things
Speaker 1: are always moving there. And to do that, we bring
Speaker 1: in on a Rock Rana. He's a senior technology annalys
Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Intelligence. He joins us here in our Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Interactive Broker studio. And let's just start with Apple, but
Speaker 1: I want to get to a couple of other names.
Speaker 1: I see workdays of stock that's just ripping today. We'll
Speaker 1: get to that in Apple Strike. Are they going to
Speaker 1: to talk us about the supply chain and their ability
Speaker 1: to deliver iPhones? And how long is this gonna be
Speaker 1: an issue for my friends and Apple. Oh, it's going
Speaker 1: to be an issue till they let the factories open,
Speaker 1: and I think that is a bigger issue for everybody. Now,
Speaker 1: all the iPhones are not made in that region or
Speaker 1: in that factory. It's only the iPhone fourteen Pro model,
Speaker 1: which is the more expensive model and which is in
Speaker 1: really high demand. That this is the most important model. Yes,
Speaker 1: so so Apple, one of the biggest and most important
Speaker 1: companies in the world, makes basically all of its main
Speaker 1: iPhone models in one place in China. No, no, that's
Speaker 1: only the iPhone Pro model, the other iPhone normal models,
Speaker 1: others that one. Right, it's no prof you're gonna spend
Speaker 1: seven in for a grant. No, No, they they do
Speaker 1: by the other ones as well. This is only a
Speaker 1: small portion of it, but it makes a difference to
Speaker 1: in terms of mathematically you're gonna lose a few billion
Speaker 1: dollars because of it in the upcoming quarter. But the
Speaker 1: you know, we have two very strong analysts in Asia
Speaker 1: and they explained it to me. It's a listen. January
Speaker 1: fab is a very slow month in production. They're gonna
Speaker 1: make up for that at that time and for the
Speaker 1: year it's going to be okay. So which means, you know,
Speaker 1: sales are gonna get pushed out from the December quarter
Speaker 1: to the Jim quarter jan Fab quarter. It's not a
Speaker 1: big deal. And other vendors, they have a lot of
Speaker 1: other vendors, and they've already asked them to to you know,
Speaker 1: start preparing for making those phones going out in the
Speaker 1: first quarters. So hopefully they asked them like five years ago.
Speaker 1: Now again, these things do take time. So you you know,
Speaker 1: if something happened ten days ago, you just can't you know,
Speaker 1: start making it in you know, somebody's basement. It's it's
Speaker 1: not that the same. So, but something happened, remember Donald Trump. No,
Speaker 1: I mean we've been at odds with China for a while. Now.
Speaker 1: You think that they would say, hey, let's move around
Speaker 1: the supply chain. Here. They are moving around it. They
Speaker 1: have plants and you know in assembly areas in India
Speaker 1: and other areas. But again, think about it, that's something
Speaker 1: that took twenty years to build. You just can't untravel
Speaker 1: it and in a couple of years. It just takes time.
Speaker 1: And I think investors don't understand that. Fit uh, And
Speaker 1: it'll be fine. I think over the long run, they
Speaker 1: will diversify I think it from a from a you say,
Speaker 1: being conscious about this is a very good thing for them,
Speaker 1: and I think they will open areas outside the offside
Speaker 1: China is button, all right, You've been talking to us
Speaker 1: about this cloud thing for years and years and years,
Speaker 1: and here's another one work day. Wait a second, we're
Speaker 1: gonna move off Apple? Yeah? I hang on a second.
Speaker 1: Why because they are set up for stockstassive showdown. Okay,
Speaker 1: the stock may not be moving now, but Tim Cook
Speaker 1: is in Washington today why to meet with incoming Republicans
Speaker 1: Because they are gaining a lot of power in Washington
Speaker 1: and they're gonna be They're gonna be on team Elon, Right,
Speaker 1: whose side do you want to be on? I don't.
Speaker 1: I'm not taking a side, but I'm gonna say. Elon
Speaker 1: Musk is now accusing Apple of uh advertising and of
Speaker 1: cracking down on free speech. Essentially, this is kind of
Speaker 1: a Republican rally and cry because he wants to get
Speaker 1: out of their app store ecosystem and not pay the
Speaker 1: thirty gate fee. So how is that going to be
Speaker 1: set up? It's again, this is for the courts to decide,
Speaker 1: so it's very difficult, but you know, our generally who's
Speaker 1: are expert in this area and says listen, you know Apple,
Speaker 1: Epic Games, make it a case against Apple, and in
Speaker 1: the end they lost. I mean at the end of that,
Speaker 1: that's already done. It's already been done. So he can
Speaker 1: make a little bit cry that's okay, let him cry,
Speaker 1: it's fine. So but our Apple investors are you talked
Speaker 1: about they concerned about a showdown between Elon Musk and Apple.
Speaker 1: You know, let it be because at the end of
Speaker 1: the day that the court has already decided that's a
Speaker 1: fair fee for placing your product on the app store.
Speaker 1: And I think the bigger question is going to be
Speaker 1: is he going to open it and make it a
Speaker 1: lot more you know, crazy? And will it have content
Speaker 1: that apps on Twitter now, yeah, can't tolerate well, has
Speaker 1: thematic tweets from very popular people. App app store has
Speaker 1: certain rules and it could be multiple areas. This is
Speaker 1: just one topic that a topic talking about and if
Speaker 1: the if Twitter you know, breaks that, it will say
Speaker 1: you can't be on the platform. It's a very simple thing. Now,
Speaker 1: the rules out for everybody. It's not specifically for Twitter.
Speaker 1: Those rules are there for any other app store or
Speaker 1: anybody who's building an application and they decided to go
Speaker 1: break out of it, then they you know, that's that's
Speaker 1: a problem for them, all right, So Matt wants to
Speaker 1: stay on this story, so we'll stay on this story.
Speaker 1: We've seen the tweets from Elon. Okay, have we seen
Speaker 1: any response from Apple? I don't know. I just think
Speaker 1: he said Happy Thanksgiving like a few days ago. That
Speaker 1: was like that. That's all I can remember. So they're
Speaker 1: not going to be going back and forth. I guess
Speaker 1: Elon Musk's had tweeted a meme where, um, there's a
Speaker 1: highway with the fork in the road right one one
Speaker 1: one direction is pay gate fee to get into apple
Speaker 1: eCos system, and one side is go to war with Apple,
Speaker 1: and Elon must chooses go to war with Apple. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think this could be I think you're pretty sanguine.
Speaker 1: I think this could be a bit more than a ripple. Yeah.
Speaker 1: But the thing is that, I mean, frankly, you know,
Speaker 1: he can go make a phone and then figure it
Speaker 1: out his his company makes what eight ten billion in
Speaker 1: free cash flow? Apple makes hundred billion. Let's see how
Speaker 1: that how that shows up? Okay, Okay, well, well we'll
Speaker 1: watch this space because I think you could see a
Speaker 1: Republican Congress start to act on this try and crack
Speaker 1: down more on Apple. We've already seen even Democrats like
Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren have already commented today that they want to
Speaker 1: uh that they want to crack down on this monopoly.
Speaker 1: They have a problem with the app stare. Everybody wants
Speaker 1: to crack down on big tech. But at the end
Speaker 1: of the day, quotes to you know matter all right,
Speaker 1: good stuff will pay attention. And plus there's the isn't
Speaker 1: there an aroid android thing out there too? What were
Speaker 1: you talking about? World calm or something? What was the stocky?
Speaker 1: It's a forty billion dollar market kept stock ups. The
Speaker 1: main of my existence work day is yeah, exactly all right.
Speaker 1: I don't know Ron. It covers all things technology for
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence. He graced us with his presence here in
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Interactive Brokeer Studio. We appreciate that. Thanks for
Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and
Speaker 1: listen to interviews with Apple podcasts or whatever podcast platform
Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt
Speaker 1: Miller on Fall Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.
Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio