1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,720 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. But one of the 7 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:27,840 Speaker 1: I guess results of the pandemic has been a migration move. 8 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:29,560 Speaker 1: I mean a lot of folks leaving like New York 9 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:32,200 Speaker 1: City and they're going and the other and the coasts 10 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 1: and the high cost, high tax areas and go into 11 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 1: places like I don't know, Nashville, Tennessee, Austin, Texas, and 12 00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:42,480 Speaker 1: the great state of North Carolina has been a beneficiary 13 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 1: of that as well, and we want to break that down. 14 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 1: We're gonna do that today. We're fortunate to have here 15 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:50,200 Speaker 1: in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio Michelle Baker Sanders, North 16 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 1: Carolina Secretary of Commerce, and Mike Fox, President and CEO 17 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 1: of the Piedmont Triad Partnership. Uh So, Michelle and Mike, 18 00:00:58,200 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. Michelle talked to 19 00:00:59,840 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 1: us about the state of North Carolina and what you 20 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 1: guys have experienced from a commerce perspective, a business perspective 21 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:10,319 Speaker 1: over the last several years. Thank you. Over the last 22 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:14,039 Speaker 1: several years, what we have experienced is at UM booming 23 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:19,040 Speaker 1: growth and a momentum with some I believe attraction UH 24 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:23,039 Speaker 1: bringing an in migration of people, families, and jobs. As 25 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:26,679 Speaker 1: you mentioned, UM over the past couple of years, despite 26 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 1: the pandemic and UH concerns about a recession and the 27 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 1: labor sup wild market, we have broken records when it 28 00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 1: comes to the number of job creation creation created and 29 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:42,959 Speaker 1: the capital investment into the state. UM. I'd specifically her 30 00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 1: at highlight the Carolina Core, which we're gonna hopefully talk about. 31 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:50,800 Speaker 1: So the Carolina Core UM is a region of North 32 00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:54,720 Speaker 1: Carolina Central Region which is anchored by UM high Point 33 00:01:55,040 --> 00:01:59,559 Speaker 1: Winston Salem and then with Greensboro. And within that region 34 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 1: they have seen UM extraordinary success, especially in the e 35 00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 1: V space and semiconductor space, all the advancing technology and 36 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:12,720 Speaker 1: advanced manufacturing and so over the past year or so, 37 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:18,640 Speaker 1: they have UM attracted over fifteen billion dollars billion dollars 38 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:22,079 Speaker 1: in capital investment and as a result of that created 39 00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 1: UM sixteen thousand jobs, and so, as you just mentioned, 40 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 1: people are looking for a great place to live, a 41 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:31,680 Speaker 1: great place to start business, and a place where they 42 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:34,919 Speaker 1: can thrive. And that's what we have found in North Carolina. 43 00:02:35,080 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 1: And the example I'm highlighting the Carolina Core is definitely 44 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 1: a place that it's experienced in that you have and 45 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:44,280 Speaker 1: you have a lot of experience manufacturing as well. Right, 46 00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 1: you come from Biogen, You were working at a number 47 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:50,119 Speaker 1: of different manufacturers, global manufacturers before this UM and we're 48 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:53,920 Speaker 1: just appointed Secretary Commerce kind of smack dab in the 49 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 1: middle of the pandemic right February. Has that driven you think, 50 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 1: more manufacts acturers as we kind of unwind these global 51 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:04,520 Speaker 1: supply chains or at least try and produce more locally. 52 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 1: Has that driven a migration to your state? Um? I 53 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:11,240 Speaker 1: believe that that might. The migration that we experience and 54 00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 1: has been building over a number of years because of 55 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:18,800 Speaker 1: many visionaries across the state and the great investments that 56 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 1: have been made by the state as well as other 57 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:25,799 Speaker 1: partners across the state like the university, community college system 58 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 1: and business owners in the state. UM, you're correct. I 59 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 1: spent about thirty years in the biotech life science industry. 60 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:37,040 Speaker 1: So I connect deeply with manufacturing, and as you know, 61 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:40,600 Speaker 1: that's a core competency for North Carolina. We have the 62 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 1: largest manufacturing UH talent pool in the southeastern US, and 63 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 1: advanced manufacturing, which I missioned earlier UM has been UM 64 00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:54,720 Speaker 1: something that we have leveraged and built on that strength. 65 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 1: We're continuing to see it grow and we're expecting to 66 00:03:58,040 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 1: and anticipate in even more growth an advanced manufacturing. So, Mike, 67 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 1: you're the CEO of the Piedmont Triad Partnership. When I 68 00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 1: think of the Piedmont Tried, I think Winston, Salem, Burlington 69 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:10,960 Speaker 1: and all those kinds of stuff. I think, you know, 70 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:14,600 Speaker 1: making furniture, textiles and things like that. How was that 71 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 1: part of the state kind of tobacco of course, how 72 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:19,600 Speaker 1: is that part of the state kind of evolved over 73 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:22,480 Speaker 1: the last decade or so, so we've really made a 74 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:25,479 Speaker 1: great transition to advanced manufacturing. We have a history of 75 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 1: manufacturing in that area, particularly with the textiles and the furniture, 76 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:33,239 Speaker 1: and we've seen those industries shrink or go off shore. 77 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:35,920 Speaker 1: That's sad because it's some of the greatest furniture you 78 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:38,279 Speaker 1: can buy. It's still is some of the best furniture 79 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 1: you can source in the country. And we still have 80 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 1: a thriving furniture industry. The world's largest furniture market is 81 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:45,840 Speaker 1: in High Point twice a year every year. So what 82 00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:49,600 Speaker 1: we've seen is more niche manufacturing there. Uh. At the 83 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 1: same with textiles, those have moved to more medical specialty garments, 84 00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:58,480 Speaker 1: not just the commodities. But this advanced manufacturing has really 85 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:01,880 Speaker 1: taken hold. We You've had the foresight to develop some 86 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 1: large sites to attract large transformational projects like Toyota, then 87 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:13,280 Speaker 1: fast Wolf Speed and Boom Supersonic at our airport. And 88 00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 1: so we started we were sitting you know, a year 89 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:20,479 Speaker 1: ago literally with four legitimate mega sites, you know, with 90 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 1: a lot of interest but no tenants. And within the 91 00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:27,600 Speaker 1: space of a year we've had four large announcements of 92 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:31,920 Speaker 1: tenants that the Secretary mentioned that total those fifteen billion 93 00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:37,160 Speaker 1: investment and you know, approximately twenty thousand new jobs. What's 94 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:39,599 Speaker 1: driven I mean, secretary points out this has been developing 95 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 1: for years and we I think Paul and I both 96 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 1: have seen North Carolina really develop UM. But the pandemic 97 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:52,240 Speaker 1: coupled with you know, the money UM that was pushed 98 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:54,680 Speaker 1: into the economy and the Chips Act have to be 99 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:58,040 Speaker 1: huge drivers. They are, and you know, quite simply, I 100 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 1: think one of the answers is the rest of the 101 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:03,320 Speaker 1: world is realizing what we've known for a long time 102 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:06,039 Speaker 1: that North Carolina is a great place to live, to work, 103 00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:09,280 Speaker 1: to play. It's also got an incredible business climate. Thanks 104 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 1: to Secretary Sanders, Governor Cooper, and our legislature, we have 105 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 1: very favorable uh, you know, business laws and and a 106 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 1: tax situation. But primarily to your point, with the pandemic, 107 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:27,479 Speaker 1: I think reshoring has become a lot more of a focus. Uh. 108 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 1: The supply chain dynamics going from just in time to 109 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:34,359 Speaker 1: just in case have become important, and I think manufacturers 110 00:06:34,400 --> 00:06:36,840 Speaker 1: want to be able to have their supply chain closer 111 00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 1: to them and not worry about is it sitting on 112 00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 1: a container somewhere in the Pacific Ocean exactly. And so 113 00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 1: Secretary representing the state of North Carolina, when you are 114 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:48,359 Speaker 1: courting business, when you're saying to a you know, a 115 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 1: Toyota or so many, you need to really think about 116 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:53,600 Speaker 1: coming to our state. Who do you find yourself competing against? 117 00:06:53,920 --> 00:07:00,280 Speaker 1: Most often we find ourselves competing against, uh, the global market. Um, 118 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:03,279 Speaker 1: there are certain states I'm sure that companies tend to 119 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 1: have an attraction to but we are competing against the 120 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 1: global markets. So that's why it's so important for us 121 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 1: did not only highlight our assets such as the university 122 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 1: of the community college system, the quality of life UM, 123 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:21,960 Speaker 1: the cost of doing business in North Carolina UM, as 124 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 1: well as UM the talent pool, the diverse and skilled 125 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 1: talent pool. It's important for us to highlight those assets, 126 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:33,120 Speaker 1: but it's also important for UH those companies to experience 127 00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:39,000 Speaker 1: North Carolina, to visit us and experience the people, the culture, UM, 128 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:42,520 Speaker 1: you know, experience what their employees with experience when they 129 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 1: come to North Carolina. And so that's what we UM 130 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:51,400 Speaker 1: enjoy and and like to show and give that experience. UM. 131 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:55,000 Speaker 1: We also, you know, we're courting companies to come to 132 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:58,320 Speaker 1: North Carolina and businesses. But I believe what's unique is 133 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 1: that we are with those kind companies not only in 134 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:05,600 Speaker 1: that initial period, that courtship period. Once we marry, once 135 00:08:05,640 --> 00:08:09,640 Speaker 1: we bring them to North Carolina, we are intend and 136 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 1: we work with them and partner with them throughout the 137 00:08:12,440 --> 00:08:15,960 Speaker 1: longevity of their business. Talk to us about infrastructure in 138 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 1: the state. For example, when I was a duke, the 139 00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:21,680 Speaker 1: Raleig Durham Airport was like a grass grass strip. Now 140 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 1: it's this huge airport modern I mean is that? I 141 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:27,600 Speaker 1: mean it seems like the infrastructure in the state is 142 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 1: getting better and better and better. How much of the 143 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 1: requirement is that when you're talking to against some of 144 00:08:32,800 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 1: these big corporations. North Carolina has invested deeply in infrastructure 145 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:40,960 Speaker 1: and because of that we have been successful, as we've discussed, 146 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:46,200 Speaker 1: with economic development and building more resilient communities across the 147 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:49,960 Speaker 1: state UM, and the airports are surely a part of 148 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:53,640 Speaker 1: that UM. You know, within the Carolina core, we have 149 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:58,319 Speaker 1: access to airports in the areas you know Charlotte Greensboro 150 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 1: has airport ore I do you UM. We also have 151 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:05,480 Speaker 1: ports that are part of our transportation infrastructure, and we 152 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:10,520 Speaker 1: invest heavily in communities to to build a sewer and 153 00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 1: water systems that are required to support these businesses. As 154 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:19,760 Speaker 1: you know, UM for semiconductor industry and advanced manufacturing utilities, 155 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:24,280 Speaker 1: the cost of energy, the cost of doing business matters 156 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 1: and it's very important and so within North Carolina we 157 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:31,800 Speaker 1: prioritize that UM to attract and to retain and help 158 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 1: businesses grow for those for those people who haven't spent 159 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 1: much time in North Carolina. Let's define the core or 160 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:42,439 Speaker 1: the Piedmont Triad. What exactly is that. So it's roughly 161 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:46,959 Speaker 1: add twenty miles stretch that runs from Greensboro, Winston Salem 162 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:49,439 Speaker 1: and high Point, which is traditionally known as the Triad 163 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:51,960 Speaker 1: down up in the north, down to Fayetteville and kind 164 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:54,840 Speaker 1: of the southeast, and it follows roughly Highway for twenty one, 165 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 1: which has recently received designation as a future industry that 166 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:02,040 Speaker 1: would connect the Triad and points west all the way 167 00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 1: to uh Wilkesboro and potentially Boon down to Fayettville. And 168 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:09,959 Speaker 1: of course Fayetteville is the nation the home of the 169 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:13,960 Speaker 1: nation's largest military base in Fort Bragg. And those retiring 170 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:18,959 Speaker 1: service members who regularly you know, decide they want to 171 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:21,080 Speaker 1: stay in North Carolina, those are a great source of 172 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:24,080 Speaker 1: talent for our employers, and so being able to have 173 00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 1: that connection to that area, to the Triad and also 174 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 1: to Charlotte and Raleigh is important for us in terms 175 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:32,679 Speaker 1: of developing our workforce. See I think of North Carolina 176 00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 1: just been a student there. I got the eastern part, 177 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 1: which is kind of the beach. Are close to the beach, 178 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 1: then the west is amazing mountains Asheville, North Carolina, one 179 00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 1: of my favorite places to go exactly. The music scene, 180 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 1: the culture of the arts amazing there. And then you 181 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:48,199 Speaker 1: got everything in the middle, which I call the middle, 182 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:49,679 Speaker 1: but now you guys call the cord and all that 183 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:51,439 Speaker 1: kind of stuff. But that's kind of where a lot 184 00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 1: of development is taking place. Real quick, Secretary urtp Research 185 00:10:56,559 --> 00:10:59,400 Speaker 1: Triangle Park that's been there for decades generations, is that's 186 00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 1: still a for technology restarts Triangle part is still a 187 00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:05,960 Speaker 1: thing for technology in North Carolina. Al Right, that's good 188 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 1: stuff because I think of North Carolina State, University of 189 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:12,320 Speaker 1: North Carolina, Chapel Hill Boo and Duke University. Um, you 190 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:14,439 Speaker 1: put those two and plus you got Wake Farcet close by. 191 00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:17,280 Speaker 1: It's that's kind of been the source of research, tronical parks, 192 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:20,760 Speaker 1: I think stuff. So it's just been awesome, so good 193 00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:22,839 Speaker 1: to talk about it. We had some Chicago pm MY 194 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:25,240 Speaker 1: data came in a little bit weaker today, but it 195 00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:26,800 Speaker 1: just goes to show kind of where some of the 196 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:30,920 Speaker 1: Chicago Chicago very far away from Charlotte exactly. So good 197 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 1: North Carolina discussion here. Michelle Baker Sanders, North Carolina Secretary 198 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 1: of Commerce and Mike Fox, president CEO of Pete Montrey, 199 00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 1: is there by the way, a rivalry with South Carolina 200 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:41,840 Speaker 1: at all, because I always think of Spartanburg being a 201 00:11:41,880 --> 00:11:44,840 Speaker 1: gear head, you know, uh, the BMW plant down there 202 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:47,960 Speaker 1: is there is a little bit of we compete with 203 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:51,120 Speaker 1: South Carolina and um so they're a part of the 204 00:11:51,160 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 1: Southeastern family. But let's be clear, we do compete. Yeah, 205 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:57,840 Speaker 1: that's what I was wondering about their their sec these 206 00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:04,679 Speaker 1: North Carolina's acc all right, I want to switch gears 207 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:07,559 Speaker 1: because we had a trade that happened in m and 208 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 1: A trade over the last couple of days. I got 209 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:12,679 Speaker 1: my attention because A it's involves banks, uh and be 210 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:14,319 Speaker 1: it's M and A and I like M and A fees. 211 00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:17,079 Speaker 1: So I'm gonna get Paul Goldberg in here. Paul's the 212 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:20,199 Speaker 1: senior equity research channels with Boomberg Intelligence. He covers the 213 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:23,800 Speaker 1: banks talk to us about this deal. Bank of Canada 214 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:28,880 Speaker 1: is buying h species Canadian unit. So the biggest investment 215 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:32,520 Speaker 1: bank in Canada is getting even bigger. Yeah, thank you 216 00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:35,520 Speaker 1: for having me, Paul. This is absolutely correct. RBC is 217 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 1: the largest bank in Canada in cross retail in many 218 00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:44,439 Speaker 1: cases across business landing, so you look at different categories, 219 00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:48,640 Speaker 1: they have in some cases more than that of the market. 220 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:52,120 Speaker 1: So they are buying the number seven bank. And this 221 00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:55,679 Speaker 1: is an extremely unique opportunity in Canada because most of 222 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:59,400 Speaker 1: the Canadian loans and deposits have basically distributed between the 223 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:03,720 Speaker 1: six banks. So, and we were just hearing about higher, 224 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 1: stronger net interest margins um in terms of some US banks, 225 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 1: I assume the situation is the same there. Right as 226 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:14,080 Speaker 1: we see rates pick up around the world, banks start 227 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:19,440 Speaker 1: to recover those margins. It's actually very interesting and very similar, 228 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:23,040 Speaker 1: but it's shifting already in the US and Canada. RBC 229 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:26,960 Speaker 1: actually reported their fourth quarter earliest this morning, so the 230 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 1: rates momentum was running out. It's been very strong for them. 231 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:33,560 Speaker 1: They probably still going to see another ten fifteen basis 232 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 1: points in the first half in terms of net interest 233 00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:39,920 Speaker 1: margin expansion, but that will slow down throughout the year 234 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 1: and a lot of the banks are starting to hedge 235 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:47,560 Speaker 1: for slowdown and interesting already already. Well. RBC was a 236 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:50,480 Speaker 1: case in point this morning. They owned City National Bank 237 00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:53,960 Speaker 1: in the US, so they're heading out both the US 238 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 1: and Canada. They not They're not position into rates, turning 239 00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:01,400 Speaker 1: over and go next going the addit direction. But they 240 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:04,439 Speaker 1: are trying to hedge out that upside, not negative, hopefully 241 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:08,120 Speaker 1: never negative again, well not negative. But I hear you, 242 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:11,400 Speaker 1: I hear instead of jacking up seventy five or fifty 243 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:13,680 Speaker 1: basis points and meeting, at some point, they're gonna start 244 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:15,520 Speaker 1: to cut. And even Gina Martin Adams, I think we 245 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:17,559 Speaker 1: were just hearing from critious think thinks the next year 246 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:20,440 Speaker 1: we'll see fifty basis points of cuts. That'd be nice. 247 00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 1: That's got to be good for the markets. My bullish call, 248 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:25,320 Speaker 1: I mean, hopefully they get some build up, some dry 249 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:27,880 Speaker 1: powder before that, right exactly? Yeah, alright, So Paul, we 250 00:14:27,960 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 1: got you know, Royal Bank of Canada, quality quality player, 251 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 1: doubling down on investment banking. They're in Canada. What's their 252 00:14:35,920 --> 00:14:39,000 Speaker 1: bullish call on Canada? Do you think we're If I'm 253 00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:40,760 Speaker 1: in a banker, how do how do I make money 254 00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:43,680 Speaker 1: in Canada over the next five years? Well, it's kinda 255 00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 1: there's a closed ecosystem right in terms of the banking. 256 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:48,920 Speaker 1: They're only a handful of banks. They're fifty banks in 257 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 1: total in Canada, okay, uh, and six of them essentially 258 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:56,920 Speaker 1: around the market. So whatever the banks can do and 259 00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:59,440 Speaker 1: whenever they can get their hands and they expending the 260 00:14:59,480 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 1: market here in that very unique asset, they do it. 261 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:05,880 Speaker 1: So why why does the Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corporation 262 00:15:05,880 --> 00:15:09,760 Speaker 1: want to sell? Well, I will defer to our European 263 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:12,400 Speaker 1: analysts who cover it, but I will mention that they 264 00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:14,600 Speaker 1: did no, no no, no, But they will mention that that 265 00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:18,400 Speaker 1: they did have came down to their lower end of 266 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 1: the capitol range where they wanted to be, and that 267 00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 1: transaction what John Tye said in this note added about 268 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:28,760 Speaker 1: a hundred thirty basis points of c to one capital. 269 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:31,520 Speaker 1: So that puts them in a very good position in 270 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:34,920 Speaker 1: terms of capital potentially by bags. All right, talk to 271 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:39,240 Speaker 1: us about the Canadian residential housing market. That's different there 272 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 1: than it is here. It's a bigger part of the 273 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:45,560 Speaker 1: you know, a consumer's total net worth than it is. Well, 274 00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:47,800 Speaker 1: and it was on fire for a while, right. I 275 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:49,920 Speaker 1: don't know what are the banks saying about the real 276 00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 1: estate market up there. It's slowing down very dramatically. It's 277 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:55,960 Speaker 1: not just the band what the banks they're saying. We've 278 00:15:56,000 --> 00:16:02,440 Speaker 1: seen that in the numbers. Uh, But RBC, for example, 279 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:05,280 Speaker 1: just this morning they see and it's still growing in 280 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:08,120 Speaker 1: the mid single digits. Not the prices, not the sales, 281 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:11,400 Speaker 1: but the mortgage loans because people still need to refinance. 282 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:13,720 Speaker 1: Can this slightly different market. They don't have the thirty 283 00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:17,560 Speaker 1: year mortgages. The mortgages refinance every five years, so there's 284 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,360 Speaker 1: a lot of turnover. That's right, That's what I was 285 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 1: thinking about. Yeah, they have much more interest rate risk 286 00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:25,760 Speaker 1: than we. They have more interest rate risk, but that 287 00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 1: a lot of the interest rate risk on the customer, 288 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:31,640 Speaker 1: not on the not on the bank cooking refinance. All right, 289 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:34,280 Speaker 1: good stuff, Paul Goldberg, He covers a lot of the 290 00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 1: banking stuff, including Canada for Bloomberg intell just just want 291 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:39,200 Speaker 1: to get the latest on what was a pretty big 292 00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:41,200 Speaker 1: m and a trade up in kinda Royal Bank of 293 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:45,800 Speaker 1: Canada acquiring HSPCs Canadian unit, doubling down on their investment banking. 294 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 1: Lamborghini is unveiling its latest twoundred seventy thousand dollars supercar 295 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:56,280 Speaker 1: that apparently is ready to take drivers off the highway 296 00:16:56,920 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 1: and onto the dirts. We welcome now are Bloomberg Televi 297 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 1: an audience, our radio and listeners because we're joined by 298 00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:08,359 Speaker 1: Stephan Winkelman, he is the Lamborghini CEO and chair joining 299 00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:12,439 Speaker 1: us as well a very excited Bloomberg's Matt Miller um Stefan, 300 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:15,520 Speaker 1: thank you very very much, indeed your time. Why are 301 00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 1: you taking Lamborghini off road? Can Serrato is our last 302 00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:27,160 Speaker 1: internal combustion engine car only, so it's the last launch 303 00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:28,639 Speaker 1: we are going to do with a car like this. 304 00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:32,800 Speaker 1: And I think that the Lamborghini always was easy and 305 00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:36,480 Speaker 1: wars and expected unexpected. It will continue to be so. 306 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:40,359 Speaker 1: So I think to have an old in car is 307 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:43,720 Speaker 1: something which is incredible and it's really fun to drive, 308 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:47,679 Speaker 1: and it's very much sticking to our DNA and all. 309 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:50,480 Speaker 1: We have a permanent bob we drive system on this car. 310 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:54,399 Speaker 1: There's more ground clearance, so it's very easy to drive 311 00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:58,880 Speaker 1: on the on the normal roads, on the race sick, 312 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 1: but also of on on gravel road. So it's fun, 313 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:06,399 Speaker 1: it's performing, but it's also a life cycle for the 314 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 1: for big sit. Stephen Guy was asking me yesterday like 315 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 1: why would I need an off road Lamborghini um and 316 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 1: I pointed out that we have, you know, six to 317 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:18,160 Speaker 1: eight inch potholes in the major highways around New York City. 318 00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 1: That's the same in all of the major cities around 319 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:24,520 Speaker 1: well in Europe at least, and here in the US. 320 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:27,320 Speaker 1: Is that part of the draw, like if I'm driving 321 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,560 Speaker 1: at a Venta door um I drove on recently around 322 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:34,320 Speaker 1: Barcelona and it's kind of terrifying with such low ground clearance. 323 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:35,639 Speaker 1: Is that part of the draw of one of these 324 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:39,760 Speaker 1: lifted Lambos. But I think we always tried to do 325 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:43,560 Speaker 1: something which is new and which was never there before, 326 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:48,879 Speaker 1: and already years back we were looking into an opportunity 327 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:52,440 Speaker 1: to do it. Seems it seemed very difficult to achieve. 328 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:56,400 Speaker 1: But then when I came back to Lamborghini a couple 329 00:18:56,440 --> 00:19:00,359 Speaker 1: of years ago, we refocused on it and we made it. 330 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:04,360 Speaker 1: And for sure it's a car which is very much 331 00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:09,080 Speaker 1: fitting into our environment because the situation of the infrastructure, 332 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:11,840 Speaker 1: as you said, no in Europe, but also yeah, in 333 00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:14,680 Speaker 1: the US, is not the best one when it comes 334 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:17,640 Speaker 1: to to the to the to the streets, so it's 335 00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:21,400 Speaker 1: very easy to drive, also with the roads which are 336 00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:24,399 Speaker 1: not in the best condition. Definitely strikes me that Folkswagen 337 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:26,639 Speaker 1: may have brought you back to Lamborghini, not just because 338 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:28,919 Speaker 1: you know the business and you're a great operator. But 339 00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 1: because they may want an I p O the brand, 340 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 1: they just did it very successfully with Porsche, even in 341 00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:39,439 Speaker 1: a tough market. Have you prepared Lambeau for an IPL No, 342 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 1: there's nothing which we are doing to prepare an IPO, 343 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 1: So this is not on our agenda timing. Okay, okay, 344 00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:50,920 Speaker 1: But but your margins, Stefan are looking phenomenal. You've got 345 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 1: margins that the bit margins that are better than Ferraris 346 00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:57,720 Speaker 1: right now. I'm assuming that the new car as well 347 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:01,880 Speaker 1: will only improve those margins. Are these martins as high 348 00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:04,920 Speaker 1: as they are because you you are sending this message 349 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:07,200 Speaker 1: that this is a business that people would want to buy. 350 00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 1: But I think that what we're doing is to work 351 00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:15,320 Speaker 1: on the product, to work on the brand, to do 352 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:19,679 Speaker 1: the best we can with all the opportunities we have 353 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 1: on our base models and all the events and or 354 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:25,520 Speaker 1: the hula can and the urdles to create very rates 355 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,960 Speaker 1: and the brand is very young and fresh. So it's 356 00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:34,520 Speaker 1: also inviting us to to attempt new territories and to 357 00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:39,920 Speaker 1: launch things like the Serato and the results are very positive, 358 00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:43,919 Speaker 1: not only in the United States but all over the world. 359 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:48,879 Speaker 1: And we're always selling more cars so far then we 360 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:51,280 Speaker 1: are able to produce and this is creating already an 361 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:54,399 Speaker 1: order bank which is exceeding creating months, and this is 362 00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,920 Speaker 1: very positive. Also looking into the future, which is going 363 00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:01,359 Speaker 1: to be hybrid from twenty onwards and which will be 364 00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:06,120 Speaker 1: then concluded by the end of four So we now 365 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:10,200 Speaker 1: have the Starato, we also have the the nine eleven Tacca, 366 00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:15,359 Speaker 1: and I understand there has been some cooperation conversations between 367 00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,600 Speaker 1: you and Posta as as these cars have evolved. How 368 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:23,960 Speaker 1: close is that relationship right now, Stefan. We are big groups, 369 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:28,280 Speaker 1: so when we speak, when the brands come together, for 370 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:31,520 Speaker 1: sure there are there is a clear positioning of the 371 00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:35,639 Speaker 1: different brands and of the cars. But everybody is proud 372 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:39,200 Speaker 1: on doing his own product and he's trying to do 373 00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:43,199 Speaker 1: and to create the best out of what he has 374 00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:47,160 Speaker 1: in his doors. And I think that this is very good. 375 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:50,280 Speaker 1: Then they set out towards just approved on how how 376 00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 1: much our engineers and also our marketing people in the 377 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:57,840 Speaker 1: in general, our people in the Stageta Bolognese are passionate 378 00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:01,920 Speaker 1: about what we're doing. Stephan. I'm lucky enough to bend 379 00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:05,600 Speaker 1: the Santa Aguta a few times. I've senior production facilities, 380 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,840 Speaker 1: recommend everyone who gets a chance goes and tours the factory. 381 00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 1: How much is that going to change when you go 382 00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:14,520 Speaker 1: to hybridization or electric cars. Are you going to have 383 00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:19,200 Speaker 1: a new infrastructure footprint? For sure? We are in fact 384 00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:23,760 Speaker 1: now we are the super sports car factory with the 385 00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:27,959 Speaker 1: Hohoda Can and the event of follower is now changing 386 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:32,359 Speaker 1: a lot. We are building a new assembly line which 387 00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:35,160 Speaker 1: when the new Hooda Can is a hybrid is coming 388 00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:38,200 Speaker 1: at the end of four will not be too as 389 00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:40,920 Speaker 1: it today, but there will be then one line which 390 00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 1: is being able to produce both of the super sports guys. 391 00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:46,919 Speaker 1: So we're doing a lot. It's not only about the 392 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:50,840 Speaker 1: product and let's say the marketing, but it's also a 393 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:54,159 Speaker 1: lot about what we're doing our factory and how we 394 00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:58,480 Speaker 1: work also without supplies, also changing all the people with 395 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 1: the new types of a job descriptions, a different intelligence, 396 00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:09,320 Speaker 1: and all the things which are going around the hybridization, 397 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:12,640 Speaker 1: electification with battery technology. So when you get I mean 398 00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:19,679 Speaker 1: massive margins, everybody loves these limited edition vehicles. Are you 399 00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:22,639 Speaker 1: planning on producing more of those before you change the 400 00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:28,600 Speaker 1: production facilities? But you know by the beginning of next year. 401 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:34,640 Speaker 1: Actually we will have a last incredible surprise on the 402 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:39,320 Speaker 1: B twelve engine. Only there will be a very nice 403 00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:43,879 Speaker 1: announcement which I will not anticipate too much, but in 404 00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:47,760 Speaker 1: generally will do a big announcement about a single car 405 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:50,960 Speaker 1: which is going to be phenomenal. And this system still 406 00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:53,880 Speaker 1: based on our actual bat Wealth engine and we're very 407 00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:59,040 Speaker 1: proud to talk about this when we are doing the announcement. 408 00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:01,480 Speaker 1: And again in order, can you can you reserve one 409 00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:05,000 Speaker 1: for me back for the next one. You know, we 410 00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:08,240 Speaker 1: have a queue. We have a lot of our customers 411 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:12,879 Speaker 1: which are applying to create and we're together with us 412 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:16,000 Speaker 1: one off, but they stakes years and we are doing 413 00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:20,360 Speaker 1: these things only once in a while. Matt's one off 414 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:22,720 Speaker 1: as well. I think he should definitely go to the 415 00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:25,040 Speaker 1: top of the queue. Stepan come back in January. We'll 416 00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:27,080 Speaker 1: look forward to hearing about the new car. Thank you 417 00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:32,440 Speaker 1: very much, indeed for your time today. You get it 418 00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:36,119 Speaker 1: right to our next guest. James Stravitis retired admiral with 419 00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:39,640 Speaker 1: the US Navy, having served thirty seven years. He served 420 00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:43,520 Speaker 1: as a fifteenth Commander in US European Command and it's 421 00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:48,440 Speaker 1: also Natives sixteen Supreme Allied commander in Europe is also 422 00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:51,720 Speaker 1: a published author. His latest book is entitled twenty thirty four, 423 00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,480 Speaker 1: a Novel of the Next World World Adam, thank you 424 00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:56,639 Speaker 1: so much for joining us here. I'd love to just 425 00:24:56,680 --> 00:25:01,080 Speaker 1: get your latest thinking on Ukraine. Where could this go 426 00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:07,200 Speaker 1: in the coming days? Weeks? And dare say months? Yeah, unfortunately, 427 00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:09,800 Speaker 1: I think it will be months, but I don't think 428 00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:13,200 Speaker 1: it's going to be years. Um, let's put it this way. 429 00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:16,400 Speaker 1: At the moment, it's a tale of two wars. One 430 00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:19,400 Speaker 1: is being fought on the ground. The Ukrainians are winning 431 00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:22,600 Speaker 1: that one. They're pushing the Russians back. I like their 432 00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:26,560 Speaker 1: chances in ground warfare. The other war tail the two wars. 433 00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,879 Speaker 1: The other one is an air war, which Putin is winning. 434 00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:34,240 Speaker 1: He is has a much bigger air force. The Ukrainians 435 00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:38,040 Speaker 1: don't have sufficient air defense to really knock it down, 436 00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:41,320 Speaker 1: and therefore Putin is going after the electric grid, He's 437 00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:45,520 Speaker 1: going to after water supplies. He's really committing war crimes 438 00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 1: going after the civilian population. So he's winning in the air. 439 00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:53,840 Speaker 1: Bottom line, if the US NATO to west, if we 440 00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:58,159 Speaker 1: help the Ukrainians close their skies, giving them surface to 441 00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:03,800 Speaker 1: air missiles. Patriot battery combat aircraft are under discussion. If 442 00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:05,920 Speaker 1: we take those kind of steps, take the air war 443 00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:09,879 Speaker 1: away from Putin, I think that pushes us toward a 444 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:13,920 Speaker 1: negotiation simply because Putin begins to run out and runway here, 445 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,879 Speaker 1: and I think that probably happens to put it all together, 446 00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:20,520 Speaker 1: Matt and Paul, that probably happens in the late winter 447 00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:23,399 Speaker 1: early spring of next year. Watch for this to go 448 00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:27,520 Speaker 1: to a negotiation at that point. Wow. So, by the way, 449 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,159 Speaker 1: what is there to negotiate? I mean, the Ukrainians have 450 00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:35,080 Speaker 1: said they will accept nothing less than the complete um 451 00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:40,320 Speaker 1: pull out of Russia from all Ukrainian lands and territories. Yeah, 452 00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:43,560 Speaker 1: we're on a business network here, and whenever you start 453 00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:47,399 Speaker 1: a negotiation, uh, in business and or and love, you 454 00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:50,240 Speaker 1: start with a maximum list position. I'd say that's what 455 00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:55,640 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians correctly are conveying. At some point. Realistically, it's 456 00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,720 Speaker 1: going to be very difficult for the Ukrainians to completely 457 00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:02,800 Speaker 1: expel the Russia armed forces. That is why you have 458 00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:06,040 Speaker 1: a negotiates And I would say our job in the 459 00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:08,879 Speaker 1: West is to give the Ukrainians the tools to go 460 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:15,120 Speaker 1: to the negotiating cable and the strongest possible position admiral. 461 00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:19,840 Speaker 1: Whose decision do you think ultimately will be to UH? 462 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,720 Speaker 1: I guess build up the air defenses the air forces 463 00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:25,560 Speaker 1: of Ukraine like you suggest. Is this primarily a U 464 00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:28,080 Speaker 1: S decision or this to be a broader NATO decision 465 00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:32,160 Speaker 1: the latter And we just saw the NATO foreign ministers 466 00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:36,679 Speaker 1: get together um in Europe, to include our own Secretary 467 00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:39,520 Speaker 1: of State Tony B. Lincoln. They're backed up by the 468 00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:43,359 Speaker 1: ministers of defense, are Secretary of Defense General Lloyd to 469 00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:49,080 Speaker 1: Austin And those conversations are live, They're real. You're certainly 470 00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:52,679 Speaker 1: going to see additional air defense flowing into Ukraine. The 471 00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:56,240 Speaker 1: question that was under discussion continues to be as whether 472 00:27:56,560 --> 00:28:02,000 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians should be provided combat aircraft, either MID twenty 473 00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,920 Speaker 1: nine from Poland or F sixteen from the United States. 474 00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:08,440 Speaker 1: I think we will probably end up providing those sometime 475 00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:11,119 Speaker 1: in the months ahead. Is I mean, can you count 476 00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:14,280 Speaker 1: on this administration to be there? Um for Ukraine? Can 477 00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:17,240 Speaker 1: you count Washington to be there? It's not just in 478 00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:19,680 Speaker 1: the hands of the president. Of course, now that the Republicans, 479 00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:23,200 Speaker 1: a lot of whom do not want to continue um 480 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:28,560 Speaker 1: supplying Ukraine with money or supplies. UM. I think that 481 00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:33,480 Speaker 1: there remains very strong bipartisan support. Certainly, you hear some 482 00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:37,199 Speaker 1: cracking noises on the far right, and you hear some 483 00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:40,080 Speaker 1: cracking noises on the far left. And I think that 484 00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:43,640 Speaker 1: on this one the center will hold UM and you're 485 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,520 Speaker 1: going to continue to see, particularly on the Senate side. 486 00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:49,000 Speaker 1: But I think even in the House, UM, I don't 487 00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,600 Speaker 1: feel there's a ground swell that completely cut off E 488 00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:56,520 Speaker 1: to Ukraine. That would be disastrous economically, it would be 489 00:28:56,560 --> 00:29:01,520 Speaker 1: disastrous militarily and diplomatically go forward, it would send many 490 00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:05,000 Speaker 1: wrong signals. I don't see that happening. I think Washington 491 00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:09,800 Speaker 1: broadly will hold together. Might be some dimmusion of support, 492 00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:13,720 Speaker 1: but I think that support broadly will continue. Admiral, how 493 00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:16,800 Speaker 1: do you game out the putin risk if you will, 494 00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:22,080 Speaker 1: that perhaps he does something you know, really unusual, unwise 495 00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:26,280 Speaker 1: and it just really escalates this thing. I think that's 496 00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:30,200 Speaker 1: a possibility, UM, and I would categorize it as the 497 00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:35,600 Speaker 1: cards he's playing now cutting off hydrocarbons to Western Europe, 498 00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:38,120 Speaker 1: hoping to crack their resolved. That will play out through 499 00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:41,840 Speaker 1: the winter and this air campaign, this kind of carpet 500 00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:45,040 Speaker 1: bombing of the infrastructure. He's gonna wait to see how 501 00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:48,600 Speaker 1: those two cards play out. If neither of those produced 502 00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:50,960 Speaker 1: for him the intended result, then he might reach for 503 00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:55,240 Speaker 1: something more dramatic at the really dark end of the spectrum. 504 00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:57,920 Speaker 1: He could consider the use of the tactical nuclear weapon. 505 00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:01,680 Speaker 1: I think that's highly unlike he knows. It would cause 506 00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:06,600 Speaker 1: a massive im media shift in global attitudes toward Russia. 507 00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:10,800 Speaker 1: It would move that swing boat of India and Nigeria, 508 00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:13,360 Speaker 1: South Africa, Brazil, those countries that are kind of in 509 00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:15,760 Speaker 1: the middle on this. I don't think he goes there. 510 00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:18,080 Speaker 1: That's why I think he starts to run out of 511 00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:22,160 Speaker 1: options once these two cards I just mentioned get played. Um. 512 00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:25,400 Speaker 1: I think that's why it's unlikely he'll be able to 513 00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:29,719 Speaker 1: suddenly hit the script admire. On another note, you know 514 00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:33,160 Speaker 1: I'm a huge fan of because I tell you pretty 515 00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:35,920 Speaker 1: much every time you come on great book, and I've 516 00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:39,280 Speaker 1: gotta ask when the next one is coming? Are you 517 00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:42,680 Speaker 1: working on another novel? We are, and um I co 518 00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:46,800 Speaker 1: wrote and novel of the Next World War with Elliott Ackerman, 519 00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:52,360 Speaker 1: combat marine veteran. The next book is set entitled four 520 00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:58,320 Speaker 1: and it's about artificial intelligence, cyber and challenges here domestically 521 00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:01,920 Speaker 1: in the United States, civil disagreements in the United States 522 00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:08,400 Speaker 1: come together mid century. That's like four. This novel is 523 00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:11,560 Speaker 1: a work of cautionary fiction. We need to be careful 524 00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:13,560 Speaker 1: as we move forward in these decades. Well, and it's 525 00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:17,560 Speaker 1: kind of scary how prescient four already looks it does, 526 00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:21,840 Speaker 1: and I hope it remains fictional exactly. All right, Admiral, 527 00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:24,400 Speaker 1: thank you so much. We really appreciate it. Admiral James Trevites, 528 00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:29,760 Speaker 1: retired U S. Navy, sixteenth Supreme Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, 529 00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:37,400 Speaker 1: giving us his latest thoughts. Let's talk some technology, uh, 530 00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:39,560 Speaker 1: and because that's always fun to talk about and things 531 00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:41,720 Speaker 1: are always moving there. And to do that, we bring 532 00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:44,440 Speaker 1: in on a Rock Rana. He's a senior technology annalys 533 00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:46,720 Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Intelligence. He joins us here in our Bloomberg 534 00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:49,360 Speaker 1: Interactive Broker studio. And let's just start with Apple, but 535 00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:50,480 Speaker 1: I want to get to a couple of other names. 536 00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:52,640 Speaker 1: I see workdays of stock that's just ripping today. We'll 537 00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:56,160 Speaker 1: get to that in Apple Strike. Are they going to 538 00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:58,120 Speaker 1: to talk us about the supply chain and their ability 539 00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:00,920 Speaker 1: to deliver iPhones? And how long is this gonna be 540 00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:03,640 Speaker 1: an issue for my friends and Apple. Oh, it's going 541 00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:05,800 Speaker 1: to be an issue till they let the factories open, 542 00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:08,520 Speaker 1: and I think that is a bigger issue for everybody. Now, 543 00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:11,080 Speaker 1: all the iPhones are not made in that region or 544 00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,400 Speaker 1: in that factory. It's only the iPhone fourteen Pro model, 545 00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:16,720 Speaker 1: which is the more expensive model and which is in 546 00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:20,080 Speaker 1: really high demand. That this is the most important model. Yes, 547 00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:24,320 Speaker 1: so so Apple, one of the biggest and most important 548 00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:28,080 Speaker 1: companies in the world, makes basically all of its main 549 00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:32,080 Speaker 1: iPhone models in one place in China. No, no, that's 550 00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:35,920 Speaker 1: only the iPhone Pro model, the other iPhone normal models, 551 00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:38,880 Speaker 1: others that one. Right, it's no prof you're gonna spend 552 00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:42,320 Speaker 1: seven in for a grant. No, No, they they do 553 00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:44,960 Speaker 1: by the other ones as well. This is only a 554 00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:47,440 Speaker 1: small portion of it, but it makes a difference to 555 00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:50,040 Speaker 1: in terms of mathematically you're gonna lose a few billion 556 00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:52,680 Speaker 1: dollars because of it in the upcoming quarter. But the 557 00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:55,680 Speaker 1: you know, we have two very strong analysts in Asia 558 00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,760 Speaker 1: and they explained it to me. It's a listen. January 559 00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:01,560 Speaker 1: fab is a very slow month in production. They're gonna 560 00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:03,680 Speaker 1: make up for that at that time and for the 561 00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:06,640 Speaker 1: year it's going to be okay. So which means, you know, 562 00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:08,880 Speaker 1: sales are gonna get pushed out from the December quarter 563 00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:11,280 Speaker 1: to the Jim quarter jan Fab quarter. It's not a 564 00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:15,520 Speaker 1: big deal. And other vendors, they have a lot of 565 00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:17,760 Speaker 1: other vendors, and they've already asked them to to you know, 566 00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,880 Speaker 1: start preparing for making those phones going out in the 567 00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:24,440 Speaker 1: first quarters. So hopefully they asked them like five years ago. 568 00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:28,720 Speaker 1: Now again, these things do take time. So you you know, 569 00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:31,160 Speaker 1: if something happened ten days ago, you just can't you know, 570 00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:33,520 Speaker 1: start making it in you know, somebody's basement. It's it's 571 00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:37,600 Speaker 1: not that the same. So, but something happened, remember Donald Trump. No, 572 00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:42,600 Speaker 1: I mean we've been at odds with China for a while. Now. 573 00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,400 Speaker 1: You think that they would say, hey, let's move around 574 00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:47,960 Speaker 1: the supply chain. Here. They are moving around it. They 575 00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:51,000 Speaker 1: have plants and you know in assembly areas in India 576 00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:53,200 Speaker 1: and other areas. But again, think about it, that's something 577 00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:55,680 Speaker 1: that took twenty years to build. You just can't untravel 578 00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:57,600 Speaker 1: it and in a couple of years. It just takes time. 579 00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:01,200 Speaker 1: And I think investors don't understand that. Fit uh, And 580 00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:03,800 Speaker 1: it'll be fine. I think over the long run, they 581 00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:07,080 Speaker 1: will diversify I think it from a from a you say, 582 00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:09,759 Speaker 1: being conscious about this is a very good thing for them, 583 00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:12,480 Speaker 1: and I think they will open areas outside the offside 584 00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:14,920 Speaker 1: China is button, all right, You've been talking to us 585 00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:18,160 Speaker 1: about this cloud thing for years and years and years, 586 00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:21,359 Speaker 1: and here's another one work day. Wait a second, we're 587 00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:23,960 Speaker 1: gonna move off Apple? Yeah? I hang on a second. 588 00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:28,080 Speaker 1: Why because they are set up for stockstassive showdown. Okay, 589 00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:30,479 Speaker 1: the stock may not be moving now, but Tim Cook 590 00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:34,600 Speaker 1: is in Washington today why to meet with incoming Republicans 591 00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:37,120 Speaker 1: Because they are gaining a lot of power in Washington 592 00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:40,520 Speaker 1: and they're gonna be They're gonna be on team Elon, Right, 593 00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:43,680 Speaker 1: whose side do you want to be on? I don't. 594 00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:46,280 Speaker 1: I'm not taking a side, but I'm gonna say. Elon 595 00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:52,880 Speaker 1: Musk is now accusing Apple of uh advertising and of 596 00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:55,880 Speaker 1: cracking down on free speech. Essentially, this is kind of 597 00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:59,919 Speaker 1: a Republican rally and cry because he wants to get 598 00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:04,080 Speaker 1: out of their app store ecosystem and not pay the 599 00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:06,840 Speaker 1: thirty gate fee. So how is that going to be 600 00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:09,160 Speaker 1: set up? It's again, this is for the courts to decide, 601 00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:12,200 Speaker 1: so it's very difficult, but you know, our generally who's 602 00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:15,720 Speaker 1: are expert in this area and says listen, you know Apple, 603 00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:18,640 Speaker 1: Epic Games, make it a case against Apple, and in 604 00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:21,640 Speaker 1: the end they lost. I mean at the end of that, 605 00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:23,960 Speaker 1: that's already done. It's already been done. So he can 606 00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:25,799 Speaker 1: make a little bit cry that's okay, let him cry, 607 00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:28,520 Speaker 1: it's fine. So but our Apple investors are you talked 608 00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:31,600 Speaker 1: about they concerned about a showdown between Elon Musk and Apple. 609 00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:33,440 Speaker 1: You know, let it be because at the end of 610 00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:35,840 Speaker 1: the day that the court has already decided that's a 611 00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:39,319 Speaker 1: fair fee for placing your product on the app store. 612 00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:41,640 Speaker 1: And I think the bigger question is going to be 613 00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:43,560 Speaker 1: is he going to open it and make it a 614 00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:46,920 Speaker 1: lot more you know, crazy? And will it have content 615 00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:52,040 Speaker 1: that apps on Twitter now, yeah, can't tolerate well, has 616 00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:55,759 Speaker 1: thematic tweets from very popular people. App app store has 617 00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:58,880 Speaker 1: certain rules and it could be multiple areas. This is 618 00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:02,160 Speaker 1: just one topic that a topic talking about and if 619 00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:05,040 Speaker 1: the if Twitter you know, breaks that, it will say 620 00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:07,319 Speaker 1: you can't be on the platform. It's a very simple thing. Now, 621 00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:09,960 Speaker 1: the rules out for everybody. It's not specifically for Twitter. 622 00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:12,799 Speaker 1: Those rules are there for any other app store or 623 00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:16,000 Speaker 1: anybody who's building an application and they decided to go 624 00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:18,040 Speaker 1: break out of it, then they you know, that's that's 625 00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:20,080 Speaker 1: a problem for them, all right, So Matt wants to 626 00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:22,200 Speaker 1: stay on this story, so we'll stay on this story. 627 00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:25,959 Speaker 1: We've seen the tweets from Elon. Okay, have we seen 628 00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:30,040 Speaker 1: any response from Apple? I don't know. I just think 629 00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:32,600 Speaker 1: he said Happy Thanksgiving like a few days ago. That 630 00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:34,759 Speaker 1: was like that. That's all I can remember. So they're 631 00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:37,920 Speaker 1: not going to be going back and forth. I guess 632 00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:41,800 Speaker 1: Elon Musk's had tweeted a meme where, um, there's a 633 00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,520 Speaker 1: highway with the fork in the road right one one 634 00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:48,799 Speaker 1: one direction is pay gate fee to get into apple 635 00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:53,000 Speaker 1: eCos system, and one side is go to war with Apple, 636 00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:55,879 Speaker 1: and Elon must chooses go to war with Apple. Yeah, 637 00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:58,720 Speaker 1: I think this could be I think you're pretty sanguine. 638 00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:01,680 Speaker 1: I think this could be a bit more than a ripple. Yeah. 639 00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:03,799 Speaker 1: But the thing is that, I mean, frankly, you know, 640 00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:05,360 Speaker 1: he can go make a phone and then figure it 641 00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:07,960 Speaker 1: out his his company makes what eight ten billion in 642 00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:11,000 Speaker 1: free cash flow? Apple makes hundred billion. Let's see how 643 00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:14,480 Speaker 1: that how that shows up? Okay, Okay, well, well we'll 644 00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:16,880 Speaker 1: watch this space because I think you could see a 645 00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:20,240 Speaker 1: Republican Congress start to act on this try and crack 646 00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:23,880 Speaker 1: down more on Apple. We've already seen even Democrats like 647 00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:27,239 Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren have already commented today that they want to 648 00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:30,040 Speaker 1: uh that they want to crack down on this monopoly. 649 00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:33,239 Speaker 1: They have a problem with the app stare. Everybody wants 650 00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:35,160 Speaker 1: to crack down on big tech. But at the end 651 00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:38,000 Speaker 1: of the day, quotes to you know matter all right, 652 00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:40,520 Speaker 1: good stuff will pay attention. And plus there's the isn't 653 00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:43,600 Speaker 1: there an aroid android thing out there too? What were 654 00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:45,960 Speaker 1: you talking about? World calm or something? What was the stocky? 655 00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:49,960 Speaker 1: It's a forty billion dollar market kept stock ups. The 656 00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:53,480 Speaker 1: main of my existence work day is yeah, exactly all right. 657 00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:55,440 Speaker 1: I don't know Ron. It covers all things technology for 658 00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:58,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence. He graced us with his presence here in 659 00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:04,840 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Interactive Brokeer Studio. We appreciate that. Thanks for 660 00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:08,319 Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and 661 00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:12,480 Speaker 1: listen to interviews with Apple podcasts or whatever podcast platform 662 00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:15,839 Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt 663 00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:20,240 Speaker 1: Miller on Fall Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. 664 00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:22,920 Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at 665 00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:23,719 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio