WEBVTT - Shatranj Capital on Ample Mideast Opportunities

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Chopping It Up.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm your host, Mike Allen, the senior restaurant and food

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<v Speaker 2>Service analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. Today we're joined by Brandon Guthrie,

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<v Speaker 2>general partner and co founder of CHATRNGE Capital Partners. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>pumped to finally get you on here. Thanks for doing this, Brandon.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, of course, I'm excited to be here.

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<v Speaker 2>So what's up man, any recent prs in the squad clean?

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<v Speaker 2>I saw you on LinkedIn throwing around two hundred and

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<v Speaker 2>seventy five pounds.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a lot of weight, my friend. Yeah, that's impressive.

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<v Speaker 3>That's my PR so hopefully my back and my knees

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<v Speaker 3>hold out. So no, recently. I think my big lift

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<v Speaker 3>that I was happy about as I the two hundred

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<v Speaker 3>club for at least in kg. So that's what four

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<v Speaker 3>hundred and sixty five pounds on the deadlift. So that's

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<v Speaker 3>for a desk jockey. That's not so bad. Definitely have

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<v Speaker 3>some room to improve, dude.

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<v Speaker 1>That's awesome. Yeah, that's awesome. Yeah. I hurt my back

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<v Speaker 1>with doing deadlifts. I was doing.

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<v Speaker 2>CrossFit for for a few years and I bought a

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<v Speaker 2>reverse hyper changed my life. You might even be able

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<v Speaker 2>to see I guess can see it, but you could

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<v Speaker 2>see it in the background. It's a it's a game changer.

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<v Speaker 2>So when did you start CrossFit?

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<v Speaker 3>I started CrossFit actually during during COVID, so here in Dubai,

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<v Speaker 3>the lockdowns were actually really really strict, so you couldn't

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<v Speaker 3>leave your house for about a month. So rather than

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<v Speaker 3>going stir crazy, the gym close to us was doing

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<v Speaker 3>virtual classes, so we signed up for those, and so

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<v Speaker 3>I just kind of pushed out all the furniture out

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<v Speaker 3>of the living room and every morning would would beat

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<v Speaker 3>myself silly doing CrossFit in the living room. And then yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>when when lockdown ended, I was hooked, so I kept

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<v Speaker 3>going back. So a lot of different ways to hurt

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<v Speaker 3>your back during CrossFit though, so that's a good I

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<v Speaker 3>think that's all they do is to come up with

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<v Speaker 3>different ways.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, the shoulders ended up getting me.

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<v Speaker 2>I had bad shoulders from football, and then all the

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<v Speaker 2>gymnastics stuff and the overhead lifts just.

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<v Speaker 1>Kind of did me in.

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<v Speaker 2>But I loved it when I was doing it, man,

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<v Speaker 2>So yeah, yeah, keep it up, man, Thanks good stuff,

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<v Speaker 2>thank you. All right, So you have extensive experience in

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<v Speaker 2>international markets, whyn't you tell the audience about your career

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<v Speaker 2>background before CHATRANJ.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, of course, So I spent my entire career in

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<v Speaker 3>essentially international consumer retail. So prior to Chatron's Capital Partners,

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<v Speaker 3>I was with the head of finance for Wendy's for

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<v Speaker 3>the Asia, Pacific, Middle East and Africa region, so based

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<v Speaker 3>here here in Dubai, and I was responsible for all

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<v Speaker 3>of our markets essentially east of Dubai. So hopefully I'm

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<v Speaker 3>taking the record for longest distance from them from you

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<v Speaker 3>guys for the pod cast. Definitely want to hold that

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<v Speaker 3>for a while. And with that, just gained a really

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<v Speaker 3>broad international background. Prior to prior to Wendy's and them

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<v Speaker 3>shipping me out here, I was with L Brands again

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<v Speaker 3>in their international division with Victoria's Secret and Bath and

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<v Speaker 3>body Works supporting franchisees in the Middle East, in the UK,

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<v Speaker 3>and before them, I was with a consumer package good

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<v Speaker 3>company that also focused on international, but primarily Asia. So

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<v Speaker 3>my entire career has been focused on international in some

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<v Speaker 3>format of another and really found my passion specifically in

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<v Speaker 3>F and B in the food and beverage industry. As

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of people do you kind of I don't

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<v Speaker 3>know if you necessarily seek it out, but once you

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<v Speaker 3>find the industry, it's just it's just too much fun

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<v Speaker 3>to leave. And so even with Chatrone Capital Partners when

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<v Speaker 3>we started the fund that ended up being a sector

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<v Speaker 3>focused private ACA be fund on food and beverage focused

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<v Speaker 3>here in the GCC in the Middle East. So it's

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<v Speaker 3>it's just a lot of it's a lot of fun

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<v Speaker 3>to be in this industry and to work with people. Ultimately,

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<v Speaker 3>food is just such an intimate thing and you can

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<v Speaker 3>never take yourself too serious if you're working in restaurants,

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<v Speaker 3>and so it's always good to remind yourself that, specifically

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<v Speaker 3>with Wendy's, right, you're serving burger and fries. It's supposed

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<v Speaker 3>to be fun, and so it's a good reality check

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<v Speaker 3>and it keeps you waking up and doing something fun

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<v Speaker 3>every day.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's fun and humbling of course. Time. Yeah, and

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<v Speaker 1>you had mentioned to me in the.

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<v Speaker 2>Past that a previous podcast of ours, Bob Wright had

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<v Speaker 2>been the one who had sent you overseas at Wendy's exactly.

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<v Speaker 3>So in we were in Salt Paula at the time,

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<v Speaker 3>in the back of the taxi and Bob pitched this

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<v Speaker 3>crazy idea of me moving my family out to Dubai

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<v Speaker 3>in the Middle East. So we had a really long

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<v Speaker 3>taxi ride if you've ever been in Salt Paolo traffic,

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<v Speaker 3>and so Bob had a lot time to convince me

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<v Speaker 3>that this was a good idea. No, I wanted to

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<v Speaker 3>do it. I mean, I was International has been my

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<v Speaker 3>passion since since I started my career. It was always

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<v Speaker 3>going to be something I was going to do. And

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<v Speaker 3>so yeah, when the opportunity came to come out here

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<v Speaker 3>to Dubai, I was working with Bob, who's very much

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<v Speaker 3>Assault of the Earth guy, and he was the president

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<v Speaker 3>of International Chief Operations Officer for Wendy's at the time.

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<v Speaker 3>And then we made the move and that was ten

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<v Speaker 3>years ago, so it's been it's been a whirlwind ever since.

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<v Speaker 1>Very cold.

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<v Speaker 2>So why don't you tell the audience what Chatran Capital

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<v Speaker 2>Partners does and what inspired you to start the firm.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so Chatrnge Capital Partners. It's a sector focused private

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<v Speaker 3>equity fund. Like I mentioned just a little bit ago.

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<v Speaker 3>It's the sector that we focus on is food and beverage,

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<v Speaker 3>specifically QSR and fast casual restaurants, and then geographically we

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<v Speaker 3>focus on the GCC here in the Middle East, so

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<v Speaker 3>the GCC being Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Memorates, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain,

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<v Speaker 3>and Qatar, and then we also look at Turkey and

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<v Speaker 3>Egypt as kind of secondaries to those markets, but our

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<v Speaker 3>primary focus being here on the GCC, and we ended

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<v Speaker 3>up we just saw so much opportunity here in the region.

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<v Speaker 3>Iconic brands are no stranger to this part of the world,

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<v Speaker 3>but what is a little bit different is the ability

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<v Speaker 3>to properly grow those brands and scale them. There's a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of opportunity with investments happening in Saudi Arabia and

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<v Speaker 3>obviously here in the United Arab Emirates. And so this

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<v Speaker 3>was a financial vehicle that we felt that provided a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of liquidity into a part of the market that

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<v Speaker 3>was underdeveloped. You know, private equity is a specifically sector focused.

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<v Speaker 3>Private equity is relatively untapped. And then with us, we

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<v Speaker 3>took a little bit of a different approach. We took

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<v Speaker 3>it to as a operations first private equity vehicle. So

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<v Speaker 3>rather than kind of a bunch of private equity guys

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<v Speaker 3>coming together and making agnostic investments, we're actually primarily a

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<v Speaker 3>group of restauranteurs people that have worked in the industry.

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<v Speaker 3>Our advisors are people that have led global brands across

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<v Speaker 3>the world, and this was going to be we brought

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<v Speaker 3>our operations first kind of value creation levers to the

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<v Speaker 3>fund and then utilize private equity as a vehicle to

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<v Speaker 3>properly deploy capital quickly and efficiently, which solves some of

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<v Speaker 3>the problems when you're commercializing markets. So it was really

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<v Speaker 3>kind of a reverse engineering approach. We saw an opportunity

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<v Speaker 3>here in the region. We leveraged our experience of how

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<v Speaker 3>we've seen businesses grow efficiently across the world and establishing

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<v Speaker 3>restaurant brands and started on that journey. And that was

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<v Speaker 3>a year and a half ago.

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<v Speaker 1>Cole, And do you have any updates on the funds

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<v Speaker 1>first capital race.

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<v Speaker 3>We're constantly raising capital. We have about one hundred million

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<v Speaker 3>in pipeline ready to deploy, and so we're just finalizing

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<v Speaker 3>those investments and hopefully we get working on that sooner

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<v Speaker 3>rather than later.

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<v Speaker 1>Good stuff.

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<v Speaker 2>And and can you talk about maybe some of the

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<v Speaker 2>you know, the five thousand foot view, what what's kind

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<v Speaker 2>of created some of the opportunities that you're seeing there

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<v Speaker 2>in the GCC.

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<v Speaker 3>Here in the GCC, I think like I said, there's

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<v Speaker 3>there's never been a You have a couple of large

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<v Speaker 3>players that have been here for a while, but largely

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<v Speaker 3>there's there's a lot of money here and there's a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of family groups or privately owned groups. Private equity

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<v Speaker 3>is a vehicle and as a as a financial instrument,

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<v Speaker 3>it hasn't been around for very long, and it's it's

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<v Speaker 3>really underpenetrated here in the region compared to the West.

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<v Speaker 3>And so what what's happened is you have people that

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<v Speaker 3>experience brands, that love brands, either when they're going to

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<v Speaker 3>school or traveling into into the US or Europe. They

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<v Speaker 3>they're well capitalized, and they bring those brands back to

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<v Speaker 3>the region working with franchisors and then it's a part

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<v Speaker 3>of a family group that it's kind of the sixth

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<v Speaker 3>arm of their company's expansion. It's and it's just it

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<v Speaker 3>ends up being not more difficult than they expected, I

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<v Speaker 3>guess would be a good way to say. And so

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<v Speaker 3>where in the West, there, like I said, private equity exists,

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<v Speaker 3>or there's this middle market where you're able to drive

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<v Speaker 3>some efficiencies and these groups would typically just offload them

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<v Speaker 3>or shut down. These brands are still very emotional and

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<v Speaker 3>highly regarded because they're iconic global brands, and so rather

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<v Speaker 3>than kind of losing face or just shutting them down,

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<v Speaker 3>typically they just hold on to them. And so similar

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<v Speaker 3>how you kind of have zombie companies, you kind of

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<v Speaker 3>end up with some zombie brands. And there's a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of examples here of major major brands, global brands almost

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<v Speaker 3>everywhere else in the world that would be successful, that

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<v Speaker 3>are definitely in default of the development agreements. They've been

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<v Speaker 3>stagnant for far too long, and you end up getting

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<v Speaker 3>frustration on both sides of the equation. Frustrations with the

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<v Speaker 3>franchise ease because they're they're a little bit frustrated with

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<v Speaker 3>the support potentially they're getting from the franchise oors that

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<v Speaker 3>don't understand this part of the world, and obviously frustration

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<v Speaker 3>with the franchise ors that see all the amazing things

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<v Speaker 3>that are happening here in Saudi Arabia and UAE and

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<v Speaker 3>all the investment that's happening and the population growth and

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<v Speaker 3>the strong economy, and then your restaurants aren't moving, and

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<v Speaker 3>so you end up with kind of frustration on both ends,

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<v Speaker 3>and that just causes a lot of a lot of friction,

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<v Speaker 3>and so we our goal is to be the utility

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<v Speaker 3>that comes in and unsticks that right, that releases that friction.

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<v Speaker 3>We understand the West, We understand how governance and transparency

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<v Speaker 3>and all those things need to be established for franchise

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<v Speaker 3>oors and for investors. But we also understand the franchise's

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<v Speaker 3>point of view and kind of the boots on the

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<v Speaker 3>ground perspective, and the restaurant industry. So I think those

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<v Speaker 3>two those things coupled together create a unique proposition for people.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, for sure, it's interesting.

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<v Speaker 2>So are you looking to be a franchise or a

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<v Speaker 2>subfranchise e or is it going to depend on the

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<v Speaker 2>situation and what sized deals are.

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<v Speaker 1>You and your partners interested in.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I think at first, master franchise e is it

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<v Speaker 3>tends to be the opportunity that exists here. The most

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<v Speaker 3>most brands that exist here, if we're involved in buyout situations,

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<v Speaker 3>have master rights for multiple countries. They may be in

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<v Speaker 3>default of those rights, but they still have the rights.

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<v Speaker 3>So any buyout acquisition would come with the entire territory

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<v Speaker 3>most usually the GCC as a whole, maybe some additional

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<v Speaker 3>shoulder markets, but with a platform company like that there's

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<v Speaker 3>also opportunity to bring in iconic brands who have yet

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<v Speaker 3>to make the jump into the region and plug them

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<v Speaker 3>into an existing portfolio that is leveraging your supply chain

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<v Speaker 3>efficiencies and some of the challenges that come with establishing

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<v Speaker 3>a market from zero. You can do that much better

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<v Speaker 3>in a portfolio company, and then you get the transparency

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<v Speaker 3>and an EESG that comes with Western back private equity

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<v Speaker 3>compared to partnering with a local group which will run

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<v Speaker 3>like a local company and come with some of those

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<v Speaker 3>frustrations and frictions compared to what people might be used

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<v Speaker 3>to in doing business in the West.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you have any deals lined up right now?

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<v Speaker 3>There? We have about one hundred million I think it's

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<v Speaker 3>five different groups, about one hundred million, between one hundred,

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<v Speaker 3>one hundred and fifty million, depending on how many groups

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<v Speaker 3>we look at of groups that are either through diligence

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<v Speaker 3>or in process of diligence. So to be honest, it's

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<v Speaker 3>a little overwhelming. Like I said, there's a strong lack

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<v Speaker 3>of liquidity in this market, so there's actually quite a

0:12:47.720 --> 0:12:50.520
<v Speaker 3>bit of room to come in and evaluate different groups,

0:12:51.160 --> 0:12:54.080
<v Speaker 3>and so there's a lot of people who are wanting

0:12:54.120 --> 0:12:56.560
<v Speaker 3>to work with us and who want us to take

0:12:56.600 --> 0:12:59.440
<v Speaker 3>a look at their businesses, and so it's more a

0:12:59.440 --> 0:13:03.160
<v Speaker 3>matter of getting through all those groups versus having a

0:13:03.320 --> 0:13:05.200
<v Speaker 3>you know, needing to find deals, which is a good

0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:07.679
<v Speaker 3>problem to have, but it is a little bit overwhelming.

0:13:08.600 --> 0:13:09.760
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, high class problem.

0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:11.200
<v Speaker 3>Ye, I'll take it. I'll take it.

0:13:11.200 --> 0:13:15.720
<v Speaker 1>Good. Yeah, good stuff. And you had mentioned, you know, fast,

0:13:15.720 --> 0:13:20.880
<v Speaker 1>casual and quick service. Does casual dining work in that region?

0:13:21.920 --> 0:13:24.800
<v Speaker 3>A casual dining works, It depends on It's a really

0:13:24.840 --> 0:13:27.480
<v Speaker 3>diverse region, so I think it's a little It differs

0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:30.400
<v Speaker 3>a little bit depending on your market. So if you

0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:36.319
<v Speaker 3>look at UAE, casual dining actually works pretty well generally,

0:13:36.360 --> 0:13:38.600
<v Speaker 3>at least with the data that I see, sales sales

0:13:38.640 --> 0:13:43.840
<v Speaker 3>are up, sales are strong with casual dining. In Saudi Arabia,

0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:49.040
<v Speaker 3>for example, sales are down, they're trending downwards. So it

0:13:49.160 --> 0:13:51.680
<v Speaker 3>really depends you have different and when you look at

0:13:51.720 --> 0:13:54.520
<v Speaker 3>the dynamics of that. Your your infrastructure is very different

0:13:54.559 --> 0:13:58.480
<v Speaker 3>in the UAE compared to a developing infrastructure in Saudi Arabia.

0:13:58.520 --> 0:14:02.080
<v Speaker 3>Traffic patterns are very different in Saudi compared to to

0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:05.480
<v Speaker 3>other parts of the world. So I think your casual

0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:08.920
<v Speaker 3>dining is under pressure, and generally what I see at

0:14:09.000 --> 0:14:11.640
<v Speaker 3>least is where you have more of an ability to

0:14:11.720 --> 0:14:13.640
<v Speaker 3>leave the house not get stuck in traffic for a

0:14:13.640 --> 0:14:19.400
<v Speaker 3>long time. There's actually some interesting cost pressures that I

0:14:19.400 --> 0:14:22.960
<v Speaker 3>think are favorable to casual dining at the moment if

0:14:22.960 --> 0:14:27.040
<v Speaker 3>everything lines up like that, compared to Fast Casual or QSR.

0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:30.400
<v Speaker 3>But ultimately QSR and Fast Casual delivers very well. And

0:14:30.480 --> 0:14:32.600
<v Speaker 3>so here in this region, delivery has always been really,

0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:37.080
<v Speaker 3>really big. Even before delivery got big in the US,

0:14:37.760 --> 0:14:40.960
<v Speaker 3>delivery was thirty or forty percent of sales for restaurants

0:14:41.000 --> 0:14:44.160
<v Speaker 3>here in the region, and before the aggregators came in,

0:14:44.680 --> 0:14:47.240
<v Speaker 3>everybody had their own call centers and their own bikes

0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:50.480
<v Speaker 3>as part of franchise e systems. So delivery is part

0:14:50.480 --> 0:14:53.560
<v Speaker 3>of this region and it's just something you have.

0:14:53.520 --> 0:14:56.680
<v Speaker 1>To work through. Yeah, all right.

0:14:56.720 --> 0:14:59.800
<v Speaker 2>So when I analyze international strategy for the companies that

0:14:59.800 --> 0:15:02.800
<v Speaker 2>I can cover, I prefer to see franchisors target the

0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:06.640
<v Speaker 2>best market possible for their brand and then find the

0:15:06.640 --> 0:15:09.280
<v Speaker 2>best partner. So let me know if I'm off base,

0:15:09.360 --> 0:15:14.760
<v Speaker 2>because you know, I'm willing to take criticism, you know,

0:15:14.880 --> 0:15:17.200
<v Speaker 2>Am I thinking about this correctly? And as a franchise e.

0:15:18.640 --> 0:15:21.000
<v Speaker 2>You know, how are you identifying your targets?

0:15:21.840 --> 0:15:24.880
<v Speaker 3>Yeah? Yeah, so I think you're one hundred percent thinking

0:15:24.920 --> 0:15:30.040
<v Speaker 3>about it correctly. Ideally, you I think where brands get

0:15:30.040 --> 0:15:36.200
<v Speaker 3>into trouble when they begin their international expansion journey is

0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:39.320
<v Speaker 3>that generally the thing that starts them on that path

0:15:39.400 --> 0:15:42.560
<v Speaker 3>is is an opportunistic point of view rather than a

0:15:42.600 --> 0:15:45.440
<v Speaker 3>strategic one. And so you might have a partner that

0:15:45.520 --> 0:15:48.240
<v Speaker 3>comes in or potential franchise e again with a big

0:15:48.320 --> 0:15:50.880
<v Speaker 3>check or a lot of interest, and it you just

0:15:50.960 --> 0:15:52.600
<v Speaker 3>convince the brand that this is the time you need

0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:57.400
<v Speaker 3>to go international, and so the brand decides to do that. Generally,

0:15:57.440 --> 0:16:03.160
<v Speaker 3>that's a recipe for disaster because the brand will lack

0:16:03.240 --> 0:16:06.080
<v Speaker 3>the support that it needs to support that franchise e.

0:16:06.840 --> 0:16:11.000
<v Speaker 3>They're not necessarily ready to take that jump. And having

0:16:11.000 --> 0:16:14.840
<v Speaker 3>a strategy, having a plan, having the infrastructure from a

0:16:14.880 --> 0:16:18.480
<v Speaker 3>people perspective, those things are really really important when you're

0:16:18.480 --> 0:16:22.680
<v Speaker 3>setting up your first international expansion plan. So there definitely

0:16:22.720 --> 0:16:25.080
<v Speaker 3>is a place where you need to be taking advantage

0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:28.280
<v Speaker 3>of opportunistic things that come across, Like if there's a

0:16:28.320 --> 0:16:32.400
<v Speaker 3>great potential partner who has a strong track record, well

0:16:32.440 --> 0:16:36.240
<v Speaker 3>capitalized and is wanting to expand your brand. There's cases

0:16:36.280 --> 0:16:38.760
<v Speaker 3>where you would want to look at that more heavily

0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:42.000
<v Speaker 3>and maybe leapfrog that market over another one that you

0:16:42.040 --> 0:16:45.400
<v Speaker 3>had strategically planned. But in my mind, ideally you would

0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:47.440
<v Speaker 3>tier out your markets and say this is the part

0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:49.280
<v Speaker 3>of the world, or these are the group of markets

0:16:49.320 --> 0:16:51.560
<v Speaker 3>that we're looking for, and this is where we think

0:16:51.600 --> 0:16:53.400
<v Speaker 3>fits best, and then you go try to find the

0:16:53.440 --> 0:16:56.160
<v Speaker 3>best partners that are in that tier one set of

0:16:56.200 --> 0:16:59.240
<v Speaker 3>markets and then partner with those and so that order

0:16:59.240 --> 0:17:01.280
<v Speaker 3>in that tier one sector might change a little bit,

0:17:01.800 --> 0:17:04.639
<v Speaker 3>but ideally you're not taking somebody from a tier three

0:17:04.640 --> 0:17:08.080
<v Speaker 3>because an opportunity came up and leapfrogging them up to

0:17:08.160 --> 0:17:10.560
<v Speaker 3>your tier one sector. And if you don't have a strategy,

0:17:10.600 --> 0:17:11.880
<v Speaker 3>you're not going to know that, and you just kind

0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:14.840
<v Speaker 3>of go wherever the windblows and causes quite a bit

0:17:14.840 --> 0:17:15.360
<v Speaker 3>of problems.

0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:18.320
<v Speaker 2>Okay, cool, and so yeah, and so how are you

0:17:18.400 --> 0:17:22.560
<v Speaker 2>identifying as the master franchise, How are you identifying your targets?

0:17:22.560 --> 0:17:26.760
<v Speaker 2>How are you ranking your potential targets in the marketplace.

0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:29.000
<v Speaker 3>So we look at I think there's two ways, and

0:17:29.040 --> 0:17:32.280
<v Speaker 3>we have the benefit at least with private with the fund,

0:17:32.560 --> 0:17:35.520
<v Speaker 3>So we're looking at potential acquisitions which we're ranking and

0:17:35.560 --> 0:17:39.480
<v Speaker 3>looking at from in terms of iconic. But then with

0:17:39.520 --> 0:17:41.720
<v Speaker 3>our experience, and I think we're in a unique position

0:17:41.840 --> 0:17:45.280
<v Speaker 3>compared to other franchisees and other other funds in the world.

0:17:46.080 --> 0:17:49.199
<v Speaker 3>With our industry experience, we also get to rank the

0:17:49.200 --> 0:17:52.199
<v Speaker 3>franchise oors. So we actually have a pretty good idea

0:17:52.840 --> 0:17:56.160
<v Speaker 3>of what we're looking for when we're evaluating franchise oors.

0:17:56.200 --> 0:17:58.119
<v Speaker 3>And part of that we you know, we want to

0:17:58.160 --> 0:18:00.360
<v Speaker 3>fly in and meet the team just like we would

0:18:00.400 --> 0:18:02.120
<v Speaker 3>with a franchise e when we were on the franchise

0:18:02.200 --> 0:18:04.639
<v Speaker 3>or side. We want to see what the support is,

0:18:04.680 --> 0:18:08.040
<v Speaker 3>we want to see what the international infrastructure look like.

0:18:08.800 --> 0:18:11.560
<v Speaker 3>We want to make sure that they understand the challenges

0:18:11.680 --> 0:18:17.199
<v Speaker 3>and opportunities that come with international and the people that

0:18:17.240 --> 0:18:19.120
<v Speaker 3>we're going to be working with. And so I think

0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:22.600
<v Speaker 3>sitting across the table from the leadership teams of the

0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:25.440
<v Speaker 3>brands that we're talking to, you get a really good

0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:29.600
<v Speaker 3>sense for brands that would be a good fit for international,

0:18:29.640 --> 0:18:32.680
<v Speaker 3>whether they've expanded or not. Sometimes even if they haven't

0:18:32.720 --> 0:18:34.639
<v Speaker 3>expanded yet, and they have the right leadership team and

0:18:34.680 --> 0:18:41.879
<v Speaker 3>the right mindset and positioning. It can still be a

0:18:41.880 --> 0:18:45.000
<v Speaker 3>good fit. But I think more often than not, you

0:18:45.040 --> 0:18:47.480
<v Speaker 3>see some of those red flags and you say, Okay,

0:18:47.480 --> 0:18:49.560
<v Speaker 3>this is a great brand, it's working really well in

0:18:49.600 --> 0:18:52.480
<v Speaker 3>the US. They're not ready for international expansion in our

0:18:52.520 --> 0:18:55.040
<v Speaker 3>mind and we don't necessarily want to be the first

0:18:55.080 --> 0:18:57.480
<v Speaker 3>ones to go through that learning curve with them. So

0:18:57.880 --> 0:19:00.840
<v Speaker 3>obviously they're welcome to expand anywhere they want and potentially

0:19:00.880 --> 0:19:05.400
<v Speaker 3>even in the same region with somebody else. But ultimately,

0:19:05.440 --> 0:19:09.080
<v Speaker 3>these are very very long term relationships, specifically with international

0:19:09.080 --> 0:19:14.919
<v Speaker 3>master franchising. Generally, the master franchise e is investing a

0:19:14.960 --> 0:19:19.040
<v Speaker 3>significant amount of their capital into developing these markets for

0:19:19.080 --> 0:19:21.679
<v Speaker 3>the long term, and so you really want to make

0:19:21.680 --> 0:19:24.320
<v Speaker 3>sure it's it's a good long term partnership and doing

0:19:24.320 --> 0:19:27.919
<v Speaker 3>all that due diligence upfront is really really important in

0:19:27.920 --> 0:19:30.520
<v Speaker 3>our eyes. So I think we're uniquely positioned. Not too

0:19:30.560 --> 0:19:33.600
<v Speaker 3>often I think you get groups like it that are

0:19:33.680 --> 0:19:36.600
<v Speaker 3>that are franchisees that are doing as much diligence and

0:19:36.720 --> 0:19:40.440
<v Speaker 3>interviewing of the franchise oors as we do. But ultimately

0:19:40.800 --> 0:19:43.080
<v Speaker 3>we come from a franchise or background. You know, we're

0:19:43.200 --> 0:19:45.439
<v Speaker 3>used to doing this with potential partners that we were

0:19:45.440 --> 0:19:49.119
<v Speaker 3>looking at expanding with as franchisees. It's only fair to

0:19:49.119 --> 0:19:49.960
<v Speaker 3>do that in reverse.

0:19:50.240 --> 0:19:52.240
<v Speaker 1>So yeah, yeah, that's great.

0:19:52.880 --> 0:19:54.840
<v Speaker 2>All right, So several years ago, I'm going to start

0:19:54.920 --> 0:19:57.640
<v Speaker 2>asking you about some of my question my companies. Now,

0:19:58.760 --> 0:20:00.240
<v Speaker 2>you know, they don't don't give us a much much

0:20:00.240 --> 0:20:02.800
<v Speaker 2>information as we'd like about international since I have.

0:20:02.840 --> 0:20:03.640
<v Speaker 3>You here, that's fair.

0:20:04.040 --> 0:20:07.520
<v Speaker 2>Several years ago, restaurant brands they tried the supercharger international

0:20:07.520 --> 0:20:12.200
<v Speaker 2>growth by pairing some big PE groups with with operators.

0:20:13.480 --> 0:20:15.960
<v Speaker 2>How how is that? You know, what do you think

0:20:15.960 --> 0:20:18.760
<v Speaker 2>about that model? How is that done over the last

0:20:18.800 --> 0:20:19.639
<v Speaker 2>handful of years?

0:20:19.800 --> 0:20:22.879
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, yeah, I think I think the model works well.

0:20:23.359 --> 0:20:28.959
<v Speaker 3>There's actually there's obviously some some significant benefits that private

0:20:28.960 --> 0:20:34.240
<v Speaker 3>equity solves as a financial instrument for international expansions, specifically

0:20:34.240 --> 0:20:36.800
<v Speaker 3>for brands. One of those being, you know, the efficient

0:20:36.840 --> 0:20:39.879
<v Speaker 3>deployment of capital. So that really solves your scale issue

0:20:40.640 --> 0:20:43.639
<v Speaker 3>and your scale challenge very effectively. You know, private equity

0:20:43.640 --> 0:20:48.120
<v Speaker 3>groups are incentivized to deploy capital quickly, efficiently, and generally

0:20:48.359 --> 0:20:52.040
<v Speaker 3>by definition they're they're well capitalized, so that really solves

0:20:52.040 --> 0:20:54.440
<v Speaker 3>that issue. When you look at it as an example,

0:20:55.160 --> 0:20:59.040
<v Speaker 3>you know, I think Burger King got to entered India,

0:20:59.560 --> 0:21:02.840
<v Speaker 3>you know, the same time as Wendy's. The main difference

0:21:02.920 --> 0:21:07.600
<v Speaker 3>there was they entered with a joint venture with Everstone Capital,

0:21:07.600 --> 0:21:10.159
<v Speaker 3>which was a private equity group. Wendy's entered with a

0:21:10.160 --> 0:21:13.000
<v Speaker 3>franchise with a master franchise e. And so if you

0:21:13.040 --> 0:21:16.119
<v Speaker 3>look about, you know, three to five years in, you know,

0:21:16.160 --> 0:21:19.560
<v Speaker 3>Burger King had over two hundred restaurants and growing, Wendy's

0:21:19.640 --> 0:21:23.040
<v Speaker 3>was still stuck at the five restaurant mark. That's expanded

0:21:23.080 --> 0:21:27.320
<v Speaker 3>since they've partnered with different people and different partners post COVID,

0:21:27.880 --> 0:21:31.960
<v Speaker 3>but it still highlights the expansion potential with private equity,

0:21:32.400 --> 0:21:35.760
<v Speaker 3>you know. On another positive example, you look at what

0:21:35.800 --> 0:21:37.800
<v Speaker 3>we did, and this is something that I was involved

0:21:37.800 --> 0:21:41.159
<v Speaker 3>in and led with Wendy's, is we partnered in Japan

0:21:41.920 --> 0:21:45.200
<v Speaker 3>with a private equity group called Long Reach, led by

0:21:45.240 --> 0:21:49.960
<v Speaker 3>Mark Chiba and Tomoya Sujimoto, so both excellent, excellent human

0:21:50.000 --> 0:21:53.800
<v Speaker 3>beings and mentors of mine, and we worked with them

0:21:53.840 --> 0:21:56.879
<v Speaker 3>to acquire a legacy business called First Kitchen. It was

0:21:56.880 --> 0:22:00.959
<v Speaker 3>owned by Sun Torri, which is the Mega Ridge conglomerate

0:22:01.240 --> 0:22:04.360
<v Speaker 3>mostly known for whiskey, and they had created that business

0:22:04.480 --> 0:22:06.840
<v Speaker 3>First Kitchen to compete with McDonald's, and they had about

0:22:06.880 --> 0:22:10.240
<v Speaker 3>one hundred and sixty restaurants. McDonald's, though in Japan, has

0:22:10.480 --> 0:22:13.680
<v Speaker 3>three thousand restaurants, and so this was just an afterthought

0:22:13.720 --> 0:22:16.840
<v Speaker 3>for them and something they wanted to divest of, and

0:22:16.920 --> 0:22:20.360
<v Speaker 3>so we worked with private equity to acquire that business

0:22:20.400 --> 0:22:24.359
<v Speaker 3>and then merge the two brands, not co branded like

0:22:24.400 --> 0:22:29.199
<v Speaker 3>they're merged Wendy's First Kitchen, so one menu, some products

0:22:29.200 --> 0:22:32.080
<v Speaker 3>from the first Kitchen line, some products from Wendy's. So

0:22:32.280 --> 0:22:35.480
<v Speaker 3>it's a bit unique of a situation. And once we

0:22:35.880 --> 0:22:38.520
<v Speaker 3>finalized that acquisition, we were able to rapidly scale within

0:22:38.560 --> 0:22:42.399
<v Speaker 3>two or three years to seventy restaurants and growing. And

0:22:42.440 --> 0:22:46.280
<v Speaker 3>so private equity definitely serves a very very useful purpose

0:22:46.359 --> 0:22:50.159
<v Speaker 3>for brands expanding internationally and like you said, kind of

0:22:50.200 --> 0:22:53.800
<v Speaker 3>supercharge the growth. One of the things to watch out for,

0:22:53.960 --> 0:22:57.439
<v Speaker 3>and just generally it's a thing more involved with communication

0:22:58.320 --> 0:23:00.560
<v Speaker 3>is private equity kind of by definition has a shorter

0:23:00.640 --> 0:23:04.440
<v Speaker 3>timeline on whatever they're working with. And there's options now

0:23:04.520 --> 0:23:07.960
<v Speaker 3>as the industry kind of evolves with food and beverage

0:23:07.960 --> 0:23:09.960
<v Speaker 3>to maybe roll over into a future fund or hold

0:23:10.000 --> 0:23:12.760
<v Speaker 3>a little bit longer than they typically would, but ultimately

0:23:12.800 --> 0:23:16.440
<v Speaker 3>they have a shorter term vision for what their exit

0:23:16.520 --> 0:23:20.439
<v Speaker 3>is going to look like, whereas hopefully one of the

0:23:20.480 --> 0:23:24.439
<v Speaker 3>partners generally the brand has a longer term vision and

0:23:24.480 --> 0:23:28.359
<v Speaker 3>so those that communication is really important on the roles

0:23:28.400 --> 0:23:31.480
<v Speaker 3>that get played. If both brands end up having a

0:23:31.480 --> 0:23:34.560
<v Speaker 3>shorter term vision, then you start to run into challenges

0:23:34.600 --> 0:23:39.480
<v Speaker 3>with perspective and what each group is trying to look

0:23:39.520 --> 0:23:42.840
<v Speaker 3>for in terms of what they need for their investors

0:23:42.920 --> 0:23:46.240
<v Speaker 3>or their shareholders. And so knowing what you're working with

0:23:46.280 --> 0:23:48.520
<v Speaker 3>and why, I think is important. Knowing the exit, knowing

0:23:48.520 --> 0:23:51.760
<v Speaker 3>the long term vision is really important, but it serves

0:23:51.800 --> 0:23:52.600
<v Speaker 3>its use for sure.

0:23:52.800 --> 0:23:53.359
<v Speaker 1>Great.

0:23:54.000 --> 0:23:56.040
<v Speaker 2>You know, Wendy's has hit some bumps in the road

0:23:56.080 --> 0:23:58.200
<v Speaker 2>with his international expansion. I think that's part of the

0:23:58.240 --> 0:24:02.360
<v Speaker 2>reason why they brought in Kirktan to lead the business.

0:24:03.440 --> 0:24:06.320
<v Speaker 2>What do you hearn about its UK business?

0:24:06.640 --> 0:24:06.840
<v Speaker 1>You know?

0:24:06.880 --> 0:24:09.400
<v Speaker 2>I thought it was like interesting that that they decided

0:24:09.440 --> 0:24:14.000
<v Speaker 2>to go to the UK and operate those stores as

0:24:14.040 --> 0:24:16.040
<v Speaker 2>opposed to franchising them off the bat.

0:24:16.520 --> 0:24:18.600
<v Speaker 3>So I have a I have a mentor of mine

0:24:18.760 --> 0:24:20.720
<v Speaker 3>as somebody I used to work for by the name

0:24:20.760 --> 0:24:27.080
<v Speaker 3>of John Payne. So he's former former young executive marketing

0:24:27.160 --> 0:24:31.000
<v Speaker 3>guru extraordinary and he was also the the MD of

0:24:31.040 --> 0:24:33.840
<v Speaker 3>Wendy's APMEA for a time, so I had the chance

0:24:33.880 --> 0:24:37.199
<v Speaker 3>before he kind of retired to really learn from him

0:24:37.440 --> 0:24:39.199
<v Speaker 3>and work with him closely. And he taught me a

0:24:39.200 --> 0:24:43.919
<v Speaker 3>lot about international and particularly franchise management. And he's he's British,

0:24:43.960 --> 0:24:46.639
<v Speaker 3>he's from the UK, and so there was there was me,

0:24:46.760 --> 0:24:52.120
<v Speaker 3>this relatively young American guy working with with John and

0:24:52.200 --> 0:24:56.159
<v Speaker 3>he would we constantly had us saying divided by a

0:24:56.160 --> 0:24:59.080
<v Speaker 3>common language, because there were just be times where he

0:24:59.119 --> 0:25:01.680
<v Speaker 3>would say, John, I understood every word that you said,

0:25:02.480 --> 0:25:04.000
<v Speaker 3>but I don't know what you're talking about. And he

0:25:04.040 --> 0:25:06.200
<v Speaker 3>would say the same thing about me. And so I

0:25:06.240 --> 0:25:09.560
<v Speaker 3>think you run into this issue of context, right, there's

0:25:09.600 --> 0:25:13.600
<v Speaker 3>so much familiarity between the two, between the two markets,

0:25:13.680 --> 0:25:18.200
<v Speaker 3>and sometimes I think that gets us into trouble, not

0:25:18.359 --> 0:25:21.200
<v Speaker 3>just for Wendy's in this example, but any brand looking

0:25:21.200 --> 0:25:24.440
<v Speaker 3>to make the jump into the UK, because you might

0:25:24.480 --> 0:25:27.560
<v Speaker 3>make the mistake that it's so similar to your own

0:25:27.640 --> 0:25:30.720
<v Speaker 3>market that it's kind of a copy past approach, or

0:25:30.760 --> 0:25:33.200
<v Speaker 3>it's going to be you know, something that you can

0:25:33.280 --> 0:25:35.960
<v Speaker 3>just run from the US and in reality those little

0:25:36.000 --> 0:25:39.640
<v Speaker 3>differences end up not being so little. They become even

0:25:39.720 --> 0:25:43.000
<v Speaker 3>more stark in how a market operates. And so in

0:25:43.040 --> 0:25:45.560
<v Speaker 3>the instance of the UK, I think there's a lot

0:25:45.600 --> 0:25:48.160
<v Speaker 3>of that. You don't want to try to run something

0:25:48.160 --> 0:25:50.919
<v Speaker 3>from the US for any brand. You know, Chick fil A,

0:25:50.920 --> 0:25:53.399
<v Speaker 3>as an example, tried to enter really got beat up

0:25:53.440 --> 0:25:55.359
<v Speaker 3>a bit on their first attempt when they were testing

0:25:55.359 --> 0:25:57.920
<v Speaker 3>out the market. They've gone back. I think they're retooling

0:25:57.920 --> 0:26:00.119
<v Speaker 3>on how that's going to work, and I've seen something

0:26:00.200 --> 0:26:02.480
<v Speaker 3>that make me think they're changing their approach, which is great.

0:26:04.160 --> 0:26:06.080
<v Speaker 3>But for Wendy specifically, I think if I had one

0:26:06.119 --> 0:26:11.480
<v Speaker 3>critique is and we mentioned getting to scale quickly, it's

0:26:11.560 --> 0:26:14.760
<v Speaker 3>just not moving. It's not moving fast enough with I

0:26:14.760 --> 0:26:16.440
<v Speaker 3>think they've been in the market for four or five

0:26:16.520 --> 0:26:19.760
<v Speaker 3>years now, if you exclude some of the reef kitchens

0:26:19.760 --> 0:26:22.919
<v Speaker 3>which are kind of delivery only kitchens, I count around

0:26:23.000 --> 0:26:25.760
<v Speaker 3>twenty restaurants. Really at this time, you should be at

0:26:25.760 --> 0:26:30.520
<v Speaker 3>seventy restaurants and plus whether that's through franchising or your

0:26:30.560 --> 0:26:33.240
<v Speaker 3>own restaurants. If you've ventured a market like that, you

0:26:33.320 --> 0:26:36.520
<v Speaker 3>really need to double down and kind of push through

0:26:37.680 --> 0:26:39.639
<v Speaker 3>that level of growth, because that's when you're going to

0:26:39.680 --> 0:26:42.600
<v Speaker 3>see the synergies that happen from you know, four while

0:26:42.640 --> 0:26:46.560
<v Speaker 3>ebit dot improvement on your supply chain and your food costs.

0:26:46.600 --> 0:26:49.760
<v Speaker 3>That's when you have a decent marketing ad budget to

0:26:49.800 --> 0:26:52.520
<v Speaker 3>go after consumers share of mind. And so I think

0:26:52.680 --> 0:26:54.720
<v Speaker 3>if you get to that twenty restaurant level and you

0:26:54.800 --> 0:26:57.520
<v Speaker 3>kind of freeze or you go too slow, all those

0:26:57.520 --> 0:27:00.440
<v Speaker 3>things actually work in reverse against you. Your supply start

0:27:00.440 --> 0:27:03.400
<v Speaker 3>getting angry because the restaurant counts that you promised them

0:27:04.040 --> 0:27:05.679
<v Speaker 3>and the discounts that they were giving you because of

0:27:05.680 --> 0:27:07.320
<v Speaker 3>what it was going to be start coming off. So

0:27:07.359 --> 0:27:10.159
<v Speaker 3>your food cost actually gets worse and you just got

0:27:10.200 --> 0:27:11.919
<v Speaker 3>a lot of headwinds that start coming your way. So

0:27:12.600 --> 0:27:14.960
<v Speaker 3>I would really like to see Wendy's push through that,

0:27:15.320 --> 0:27:19.080
<v Speaker 3>start franchising a little bit faster or opening more restaurants faster.

0:27:19.720 --> 0:27:22.640
<v Speaker 3>But that's a challenge in the UK, Like you really

0:27:22.640 --> 0:27:24.800
<v Speaker 3>need to push through that. It's like a rocket getting

0:27:24.800 --> 0:27:29.480
<v Speaker 3>out of Earth's gravity. You can't stop at twenty. You

0:27:29.520 --> 0:27:32.800
<v Speaker 3>can't stop otherwise it just comes back down to Earth.

0:27:32.800 --> 0:27:33.119
<v Speaker 1>You got it.

0:27:33.160 --> 0:27:35.160
<v Speaker 3>You got to push through. It might be a little

0:27:35.160 --> 0:27:37.639
<v Speaker 3>bit painful, but the faster it goes, the better it gets,

0:27:37.680 --> 0:27:39.720
<v Speaker 3>and you really need to get to that restaurant count

0:27:39.720 --> 0:27:43.480
<v Speaker 3>of seventy. An example in the UK that I think

0:27:43.480 --> 0:27:45.919
<v Speaker 3>they did it really well was five guys. You know,

0:27:45.960 --> 0:27:50.359
<v Speaker 3>they opened really really aggressively. You know, it doesn't it

0:27:50.359 --> 0:27:53.000
<v Speaker 3>doesn't mean that it was all sunshine and roses and

0:27:53.000 --> 0:27:58.000
<v Speaker 3>that everything was there wasn't cost pressures along the way,

0:27:58.560 --> 0:28:00.760
<v Speaker 3>but you know, they got to a really good scale

0:28:00.880 --> 0:28:03.440
<v Speaker 3>and I think it's and it's a good example of

0:28:03.440 --> 0:28:07.000
<v Speaker 3>of deploying and growing a market quickly to get to

0:28:07.000 --> 0:28:09.800
<v Speaker 3>to get to a size where it's going to be

0:28:10.320 --> 0:28:12.560
<v Speaker 3>feasible to continue to franchise and grow the business.

0:28:13.560 --> 0:28:17.280
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Chipotle is a chain that's had you know a

0:28:17.320 --> 0:28:22.320
<v Speaker 2>few dozen international stores in Europe for years, and they

0:28:22.400 --> 0:28:27.440
<v Speaker 2>finally made a switch with their strategy partnering with al Shaya.

0:28:27.480 --> 0:28:29.080
<v Speaker 1>Any thoughts, I mean, I.

0:28:29.000 --> 0:28:31.439
<v Speaker 3>Think I think it's the right strategy for the region

0:28:33.000 --> 0:28:37.400
<v Speaker 3>in terms of master franchising the I believe it's their

0:28:37.400 --> 0:28:42.600
<v Speaker 3>first franchise location anywhere, So a little bit of a

0:28:42.640 --> 0:28:45.480
<v Speaker 3>concern I would have is just is there the franchising

0:28:45.640 --> 0:28:48.800
<v Speaker 3>I think anybody in industry knows that franchising itself is

0:28:48.840 --> 0:28:52.680
<v Speaker 3>its own muscle and skill set, and so I know

0:28:52.760 --> 0:28:54.840
<v Speaker 3>a lot of different people from the industry that are

0:28:54.840 --> 0:28:58.440
<v Speaker 3>in Chipotle that have have franchise experience, but having an

0:28:58.520 --> 0:29:02.560
<v Speaker 3>organization that backs franches is something that's very different than

0:29:02.720 --> 0:29:05.240
<v Speaker 3>just having people that know what franchising is like or

0:29:05.280 --> 0:29:08.480
<v Speaker 3>having that experience. So I hope that they're building that

0:29:08.480 --> 0:29:10.640
<v Speaker 3>out and if that's going to be a strategy going forward, again,

0:29:10.680 --> 0:29:13.440
<v Speaker 3>I think it is the right strategy to master franchise

0:29:13.520 --> 0:29:18.240
<v Speaker 3>in a high context market like the Middle East. On

0:29:18.320 --> 0:29:20.480
<v Speaker 3>the flip side, from the boots on the ground here,

0:29:20.600 --> 0:29:22.360
<v Speaker 3>there was a little bit of a red flag when

0:29:22.520 --> 0:29:26.040
<v Speaker 3>the announcement came out that you know, they're partnering with Alshaia,

0:29:26.080 --> 0:29:30.840
<v Speaker 3>which is a big group, but no restaurant counts announced, no,

0:29:30.840 --> 0:29:34.560
<v Speaker 3>no strong commitment. It seemed very tentative for something that's

0:29:34.680 --> 0:29:39.320
<v Speaker 3>iconic and global as Chipotle, so it raised a few questions.

0:29:41.120 --> 0:29:43.840
<v Speaker 3>So it'll be interesting to see Alshaia as a group

0:29:44.280 --> 0:29:46.920
<v Speaker 3>one of the major groups out here in the GCC

0:29:47.520 --> 0:29:52.040
<v Speaker 3>and across MINA as a whole. But what a lot

0:29:52.080 --> 0:29:54.200
<v Speaker 3>of people don't realize is ninety five percent of their

0:29:54.240 --> 0:29:57.760
<v Speaker 3>F and B units are actually Starbucks which is under

0:29:57.840 --> 0:30:00.320
<v Speaker 3>quite a bit of pressure at the moment. The other

0:30:00.320 --> 0:30:05.440
<v Speaker 3>brands that Alshaya has like Raising Canes, Cheesecake Factory, shake Shack.

0:30:06.920 --> 0:30:09.440
<v Speaker 3>You know, when it comes to QSRs like like our

0:30:09.520 --> 0:30:13.280
<v Speaker 3>fast casual, like a Raising Canes, they're they're not there's

0:30:13.360 --> 0:30:15.840
<v Speaker 3>there's very few. They're they're not growing at the level

0:30:15.840 --> 0:30:17.360
<v Speaker 3>as we would want them to. I think they have

0:30:17.440 --> 0:30:20.720
<v Speaker 3>some pricing differences with how the US and the primary

0:30:20.720 --> 0:30:25.400
<v Speaker 3>brand prices their products. There's more Shakeshacks here than there

0:30:25.400 --> 0:30:28.440
<v Speaker 3>are Raising Canes, which is crazy to me. So definitely

0:30:28.480 --> 0:30:31.160
<v Speaker 3>over penetrated on some of the higher end of fast casual,

0:30:32.040 --> 0:30:35.400
<v Speaker 3>and there's a lot of potential for getting the brand

0:30:35.400 --> 0:30:38.160
<v Speaker 3>I think a little bit closer to the mark and

0:30:38.200 --> 0:30:41.120
<v Speaker 3>the home brand and the core concept with with groups

0:30:41.120 --> 0:30:44.719
<v Speaker 3>like Raising Canes and so with Chipotle, I think TBD,

0:30:45.000 --> 0:30:47.280
<v Speaker 3>let's see, let's see how it comes out. They I

0:30:47.280 --> 0:30:49.600
<v Speaker 3>think they announced their first location would be in Dubai

0:30:50.000 --> 0:30:53.840
<v Speaker 3>and Kuwait, which again Kuwait wouldn't necessarily be where I

0:30:53.840 --> 0:30:55.800
<v Speaker 3>would launch my first location. I would be looking at

0:30:55.880 --> 0:31:00.160
<v Speaker 3>UEE in Saudi Arabia transparently, but you know, quait Is

0:31:00.160 --> 0:31:02.560
<v Speaker 3>is the whole market of Alshaia. So I imagine that has a.

0:31:02.560 --> 0:31:03.560
<v Speaker 1>Lot to do with it for sure.

0:31:03.840 --> 0:31:07.120
<v Speaker 2>All Right, so let's get into that a little bit. Starbucks, right,

0:31:07.640 --> 0:31:10.840
<v Speaker 2>McDonald's and Starbucks were two that really spoke about four

0:31:10.920 --> 0:31:13.360
<v Speaker 2>Q sales weakness in the Middle East and other countries

0:31:13.440 --> 0:31:17.360
<v Speaker 2>with large Muslim populations like Indonesia, Malaysia, France due to

0:31:17.400 --> 0:31:22.560
<v Speaker 2>the Israel Hamas War. I guess two things you know

0:31:22.680 --> 0:31:26.520
<v Speaker 2>is this mainly is this a bigger problem for McDonald's

0:31:26.520 --> 0:31:28.960
<v Speaker 2>and Starbucks than it is maybe for young brands and

0:31:29.040 --> 0:31:32.800
<v Speaker 2>Dominos because of some of the press that and some

0:31:32.840 --> 0:31:33.840
<v Speaker 2>of the things that happened.

0:31:34.240 --> 0:31:37.520
<v Speaker 1>And has there been any improvement thus far in one Q?

0:31:38.360 --> 0:31:42.960
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so I think yes. For the first answer is yes,

0:31:43.000 --> 0:31:44.880
<v Speaker 3>I think it is a bigger problem for Starbucks and

0:31:44.960 --> 0:31:48.320
<v Speaker 3>McDonald's compared to what I see with the with the

0:31:48.360 --> 0:31:53.320
<v Speaker 3>other brands. Everybody got impacted, and this is something a

0:31:53.360 --> 0:31:56.360
<v Speaker 3>lot of people don't realize, not just Western brands, Like

0:31:56.440 --> 0:32:00.640
<v Speaker 3>everybody got impacted by the conflict post doc over seventh.

0:32:01.120 --> 0:32:03.800
<v Speaker 3>So in general, you saw a big step down in

0:32:03.880 --> 0:32:09.760
<v Speaker 3>sales in some markets. You saw more of a differentiation

0:32:09.960 --> 0:32:14.520
<v Speaker 3>between Western brands or American brands and local brands, but

0:32:14.680 --> 0:32:18.280
<v Speaker 3>overall everybody still took a step down. What we've seen

0:32:18.360 --> 0:32:23.080
<v Speaker 3>to date is that gap between Western brands and local

0:32:23.120 --> 0:32:26.800
<v Speaker 3>brands has actually has actually come together. So those trend

0:32:26.840 --> 0:32:31.080
<v Speaker 3>lines are meeting, are just about to meet, and across

0:32:31.160 --> 0:32:34.960
<v Speaker 3>those businesses there is a recovery line where you start

0:32:35.000 --> 0:32:37.640
<v Speaker 3>to see a revision to the mean and potentially a

0:32:37.640 --> 0:32:41.480
<v Speaker 3>return to standard sales. It's still going to take some time.

0:32:42.200 --> 0:32:46.520
<v Speaker 3>I think from what I see, assuming the conflict ended today,

0:32:46.600 --> 0:32:50.240
<v Speaker 3>which you know, God willing it does, you'd see a

0:32:50.240 --> 0:32:53.920
<v Speaker 3>pretty rapid recovery back to standard sales, maybe even as

0:32:53.960 --> 0:32:58.880
<v Speaker 3>early as early Q three or mid Q three for

0:32:59.040 --> 0:33:04.480
<v Speaker 3>McDonald's and Starbuck specifically, though they've been impacted significantly more,

0:33:04.640 --> 0:33:06.400
<v Speaker 3>they also have a presence that's a little bit more

0:33:06.440 --> 0:33:10.840
<v Speaker 3>exposed to Egypt and Jordan and Morocco, which those are

0:33:11.040 --> 0:33:14.480
<v Speaker 3>higher impact markets compared to the to the GCC, so

0:33:14.520 --> 0:33:18.120
<v Speaker 3>that that we haven't been in the GCC, specifically Saudi Arabia, UAE,

0:33:18.600 --> 0:33:21.920
<v Speaker 3>we haven't been affected as as significantly as those close

0:33:22.040 --> 0:33:25.479
<v Speaker 3>those markets that are closer to the conflict. So uh,

0:33:26.000 --> 0:33:27.880
<v Speaker 3>from what I've seen, I don't think you're going to

0:33:27.880 --> 0:33:30.880
<v Speaker 3>see a recovery with McDonald's and Starbucks potentially until the

0:33:30.960 --> 0:33:32.959
<v Speaker 3>end of the year. Just because they took it, they

0:33:32.960 --> 0:33:36.840
<v Speaker 3>were a bigger step back. But everybody is on a

0:33:36.880 --> 0:33:39.280
<v Speaker 3>trend line that's recovering. So I think you are starting

0:33:39.280 --> 0:33:42.000
<v Speaker 3>to see a little bit of potential, you know, outrage

0:33:42.000 --> 0:33:45.960
<v Speaker 3>fatigue with the consumer. So as long as there's not

0:33:46.000 --> 0:33:50.960
<v Speaker 3>something that continues to you know, irritate or or make

0:33:51.040 --> 0:33:54.760
<v Speaker 3>the situation worse, I think you'll see a continued recovery.

0:33:55.400 --> 0:33:58.760
<v Speaker 2>All right, So let's let's go back to Wendy's real quick,

0:33:59.240 --> 0:34:02.320
<v Speaker 2>because you had a great post on LinkedIn about dynamic pricing,

0:34:02.360 --> 0:34:05.000
<v Speaker 2>and Wendy's your thoughts.

0:34:05.800 --> 0:34:08.960
<v Speaker 3>Not a fan of dynamic pricing for QSR, Yeah, not

0:34:09.000 --> 0:34:12.640
<v Speaker 3>a fan, And you know, in short, I just don't

0:34:12.680 --> 0:34:15.360
<v Speaker 3>think it's a great fit for specifically for QSR and

0:34:15.760 --> 0:34:18.160
<v Speaker 3>fast casual. I think it goes against the DNA of

0:34:18.200 --> 0:34:21.839
<v Speaker 3>what what our industry in those two areas really stands for.

0:34:23.960 --> 0:34:26.799
<v Speaker 3>Maybe places for fine dining, you know, where you can

0:34:26.800 --> 0:34:29.520
<v Speaker 3>implement that. There's some instances where it is implemented. But

0:34:29.840 --> 0:34:32.560
<v Speaker 3>I find the conversation really interesting, you know, even listening

0:34:32.560 --> 0:34:34.480
<v Speaker 3>to your to the previous guest on the podcast. I

0:34:34.480 --> 0:34:37.279
<v Speaker 3>think there's examples that a lot of people give in

0:34:37.320 --> 0:34:40.520
<v Speaker 3>the industry where it's almost a little bit of gas

0:34:40.640 --> 0:34:44.440
<v Speaker 3>lighting the consumer saying, well, you know, dynamic pricing is

0:34:44.440 --> 0:34:48.920
<v Speaker 3>already in place because happy hour and discounts, and I

0:34:48.960 --> 0:34:51.400
<v Speaker 3>think it's it's just a little bit disingenuous in my mind,

0:34:52.080 --> 0:34:58.279
<v Speaker 3>because when you're defining dynamic pricing, dynamic pricing is by

0:34:58.320 --> 0:35:01.920
<v Speaker 3>definition ever changing pricing. So really you're looking at a

0:35:01.920 --> 0:35:05.440
<v Speaker 3>model that's much more similar to how airlines or airbnbs

0:35:05.480 --> 0:35:06.400
<v Speaker 3>or hotels operating.

0:35:06.560 --> 0:35:10.200
<v Speaker 2>That's surge prices, right, but that's that's those industries have

0:35:10.840 --> 0:35:14.440
<v Speaker 2>a supply demand issue that the restaurants don't.

0:35:14.880 --> 0:35:18.360
<v Speaker 3>Right exactly right. And where you get to dynamic pricing

0:35:18.440 --> 0:35:21.759
<v Speaker 3>is where you have discounting strategies plus surge pricing, So

0:35:21.800 --> 0:35:24.960
<v Speaker 3>those things too together is what we're talking about. Where

0:35:25.040 --> 0:35:27.320
<v Speaker 3>where it's dynamic pricing, if you're just talking about happy

0:35:27.360 --> 0:35:29.319
<v Speaker 3>hour or something like that, that really is just a

0:35:29.320 --> 0:35:32.040
<v Speaker 3>discounting strategy, which is everybody's correct, that has been in

0:35:32.040 --> 0:35:34.200
<v Speaker 3>place for a long time. But consumers are smart, so

0:35:34.239 --> 0:35:37.680
<v Speaker 3>they realize that this is this is something different, and

0:35:37.920 --> 0:35:40.000
<v Speaker 3>as you pointed out, and as a lot of people

0:35:40.040 --> 0:35:43.920
<v Speaker 3>pointed out the difference between our industry and other industries

0:35:43.920 --> 0:35:47.279
<v Speaker 3>that are currently implementing dynamic pricing is there's not a

0:35:47.320 --> 0:35:50.400
<v Speaker 3>supply constraint component, right, so more or less you have

0:35:50.520 --> 0:35:53.560
<v Speaker 3>infinite supply with restaurants, you know, we're not. We're we

0:35:53.640 --> 0:35:55.360
<v Speaker 3>go through a lot of work to make sure we

0:35:55.400 --> 0:35:57.400
<v Speaker 3>don't run out of food and that we can that

0:35:57.440 --> 0:36:01.920
<v Speaker 3>we can serve consumers. So you don't have that supply constraint.

0:36:02.000 --> 0:36:03.799
<v Speaker 3>So then really what you're looking at is just you're

0:36:03.840 --> 0:36:07.120
<v Speaker 3>maximizing the demand constraint and that doesn't make sense to consumers.

0:36:07.600 --> 0:36:10.480
<v Speaker 3>And so you get to this point where you know,

0:36:10.560 --> 0:36:15.600
<v Speaker 3>to wax poetic QSRs are meant to be affordable, consistent,

0:36:16.320 --> 0:36:19.800
<v Speaker 3>and fast. And so if you're losing face and trust

0:36:19.800 --> 0:36:23.200
<v Speaker 3>with the consumer that you're not affordable or consistent anymore

0:36:23.680 --> 0:36:26.279
<v Speaker 3>and they've lost that trust, then you really need to

0:36:26.400 --> 0:36:28.920
<v Speaker 3>change your strategy fast. And so I really don't think

0:36:28.960 --> 0:36:31.080
<v Speaker 3>the juice is worth the squeeze in the industry. I

0:36:31.400 --> 0:36:35.560
<v Speaker 3>would recommend and promote to brands that really, rather than

0:36:35.560 --> 0:36:38.960
<v Speaker 3>trying to justify the reaction or to explain it away,

0:36:39.520 --> 0:36:41.440
<v Speaker 3>you look at the consumer reaction for what it is.

0:36:42.160 --> 0:36:46.799
<v Speaker 3>And you modify your strategies based on that. Specifically for

0:36:46.880 --> 0:36:49.080
<v Speaker 3>QSR and fast catual, I think there's a lot of

0:36:49.080 --> 0:36:52.400
<v Speaker 3>benefit for people to have consistency to understand what the

0:36:52.840 --> 0:36:55.880
<v Speaker 3>static price is going to be on the menu. And

0:36:56.440 --> 0:36:57.960
<v Speaker 3>you know, at the end of the day, we're a

0:36:57.960 --> 0:37:01.040
<v Speaker 3>price sensitive consumer that you know, people they're going to QSRs,

0:37:01.280 --> 0:37:04.959
<v Speaker 3>they want to know what the price is. And they've

0:37:04.960 --> 0:37:07.920
<v Speaker 3>given plenty of opportunities for everybody to raise their prices,

0:37:07.960 --> 0:37:09.680
<v Speaker 3>you know, that's been built in. I don't I don't

0:37:09.680 --> 0:37:13.239
<v Speaker 3>think dynamic pricing, especially now, is a good strategy.

0:37:13.400 --> 0:37:15.919
<v Speaker 2>So especially now, is right, man? I mean we've seen

0:37:15.920 --> 0:37:19.800
<v Speaker 2>thirty forty percent price increases at some of these chains, yeah,

0:37:20.280 --> 0:37:24.080
<v Speaker 2>you know, and so yeah, and people are pissed. We

0:37:24.560 --> 0:37:27.440
<v Speaker 2>see all these articles now cropping up and people complain

0:37:27.480 --> 0:37:31.920
<v Speaker 2>about the eighteen dollars big Mac meal, the the five guys,

0:37:31.960 --> 0:37:34.280
<v Speaker 2>you know, twenty four dollars meal or twenty three dollars

0:37:34.280 --> 0:37:35.239
<v Speaker 2>meal or whatever it was.

0:37:35.320 --> 0:37:37.879
<v Speaker 1>So yeah, yeah, the timing was tough for sure.

0:37:38.200 --> 0:37:41.040
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, when when QSR pricing is starting to approach casual

0:37:41.120 --> 0:37:45.000
<v Speaker 3>dining basket size, that's a bit of a red flag.

0:37:45.480 --> 0:37:48.120
<v Speaker 3>And like I said, consumers are smart. Everybody needs to

0:37:48.120 --> 0:37:52.360
<v Speaker 3>realize consumers are smart. I think ultimately, you know, people

0:37:52.400 --> 0:37:54.359
<v Speaker 3>in the boardroom know this, but I think sometimes it

0:37:54.360 --> 0:37:58.320
<v Speaker 3>gets forgotten, and you know, you might be able to

0:37:59.000 --> 0:38:01.000
<v Speaker 3>pull a fast one over one or two times. But

0:38:02.120 --> 0:38:03.680
<v Speaker 3>like I said, I if I'm in the drive through

0:38:03.680 --> 0:38:05.280
<v Speaker 3>and I see my price changing all over the place,

0:38:05.880 --> 0:38:07.560
<v Speaker 3>I'll give a brand one or two shots before I

0:38:07.640 --> 0:38:10.920
<v Speaker 3>just change. And then with our industry, there's a lot

0:38:10.960 --> 0:38:15.000
<v Speaker 3>of competition, right, there's a lot of alternatives, So there's

0:38:15.040 --> 0:38:17.560
<v Speaker 3>a lot of reasons why we're different and why the

0:38:17.600 --> 0:38:21.960
<v Speaker 3>strategy should be different for QSR compared to airlines or hotels.

0:38:22.120 --> 0:38:26.680
<v Speaker 2>So yeah, good stuff, man. I really appreciate you for

0:38:26.680 --> 0:38:28.680
<v Speaker 2>coming on. This was a great discussion.

0:38:29.680 --> 0:38:30.240
<v Speaker 3>My pleasure.

0:38:30.480 --> 0:38:32.560
<v Speaker 1>Where can the audience go to find more out about

0:38:32.680 --> 0:38:33.719
<v Speaker 1>Chatron Capital Parts.

0:38:33.760 --> 0:38:36.839
<v Speaker 3>So we're very active on LinkedIn, Chatrons Capital Partners. We're

0:38:36.880 --> 0:38:41.120
<v Speaker 3>also on Chatroncapital dot Com, so lots of ways to

0:38:41.120 --> 0:38:43.400
<v Speaker 3>get in contact with us. And then me personally always

0:38:43.400 --> 0:38:46.960
<v Speaker 3>feel to reach out doctor Brandon Guthrie on LinkedIn and

0:38:47.000 --> 0:38:51.560
<v Speaker 3>then Idaho Boy meets World on Instagram, so little just formal.

0:38:51.960 --> 0:38:54.760
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, good stuff, man, good luck, and I look forward

0:38:54.800 --> 0:38:57.120
<v Speaker 2>to you know, continuing to follow the story.

0:38:57.120 --> 0:38:58.200
<v Speaker 1>And I wish you good luck.

0:38:58.320 --> 0:38:58.760
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:38:58.840 --> 0:38:59.640
<v Speaker 1>Perfect, yeah.

0:38:59.640 --> 0:39:01.440
<v Speaker 2>And I also want to thank the audience for tuning in.

0:39:01.880 --> 0:39:03.600
<v Speaker 2>If you liked the episode, please share it with your

0:39:03.600 --> 0:39:06.279
<v Speaker 2>friends and colleagues. Check back soon for a discussion with

0:39:06.360 --> 0:39:09.880
<v Speaker 2>Jeff Henry, president of the America's at gang Cha Global