WEBVTT - Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan Talks Earnings, Economic Activity

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>For Bloomberg audience worldwide. I'm David Weston. Joining us now

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<v Speaker 2>is Brian Moonton, and he is the chair and CEO

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<v Speaker 2>of Back of America. So welcome. It's good to have

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<v Speaker 2>you on earnings day.

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<v Speaker 1>Brian, that's great to be here. David, good to see

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<v Speaker 1>you again.

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<v Speaker 2>So let's start with lending, which is so important to

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<v Speaker 2>Back of America, really a leader in commercial lending, and

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<v Speaker 2>that interest income is something we've been talking about an

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<v Speaker 2>awful lot. You had said it would be a trough

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<v Speaker 2>in all likely the second quarter, coming back fourth quarter.

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<v Speaker 2>But I'm curious about when you look at it, what

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<v Speaker 2>are the things driving that right now? Up or down?

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<v Speaker 2>Is it loan demand? Is it the cost of deposits?

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<v Speaker 2>What are the things that are feeding into that right now?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, So I think make it straightforward, we have at

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<v Speaker 3>one point nine to one trillion dollars of deposits and

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<v Speaker 3>we have about a billion fifty loans, a trillion fifty loans,

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<v Speaker 3>and so the money we earn on spread and that

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<v Speaker 3>instincome is the difference between what we deposit rates paid,

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<v Speaker 3>loan rates received and then ultimately investing in cash. The

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<v Speaker 3>other eight hundred million dollars you have to invest. So first,

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<v Speaker 3>what's driving demand? I think is actually an interesting thing.

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<v Speaker 3>So if you look across the loan categories, credit card

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<v Speaker 3>growth was decent, home akery growth is kind of bouncing

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<v Speaker 3>along because consumers aren't using their home acry loans yet

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<v Speaker 3>they may. Mortgage lending activity relatively flat. There you go

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<v Speaker 3>on the commercial side. The great news is we grew

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<v Speaker 3>small business and business banking, which is our fifty mini

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<v Speaker 3>Hutter segment. It grew for small business of the twentieth

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<v Speaker 3>consecutive quarter with the number one small business lender. Despite

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<v Speaker 3>what you hear, we are the largest small business lender

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<v Speaker 3>in America and that grew, which means there's activity. But

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<v Speaker 3>when you get in the middle market in the upper end,

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<v Speaker 3>you start to see there's a soft level of softast

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<v Speaker 3>loan demand because of opportunity and cost the beer point

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<v Speaker 3>the cost of borrowings higher and the opportunity what to

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<v Speaker 3>do with the money with economic certainty hire. But you

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<v Speaker 3>put that together, we believe that I would trough this quarter.

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<v Speaker 3>We called that we should have bridged. Where it goes

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<v Speaker 3>from thirteen point nine billion this quarter to fourteen point

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<v Speaker 3>five billion in the fourth quarter, and we showed the

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<v Speaker 3>steps to get there, which I think gave the market

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<v Speaker 3>confidence that part of this requires a little bit of

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<v Speaker 3>growth and loans and deposits continue discipline and pricing, and

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of it comes from mechanical repricing of assets

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<v Speaker 3>that are rolling off their fixed rate and having repriced

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<v Speaker 3>to current rate structures.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and those mechanical things you're reasonably certain of as

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<v Speaker 2>far as much as you can be. But when you

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<v Speaker 2>talk about growing, for example, small and medium sized business loan,

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<v Speaker 2>is that what I would call organic growth. Is that

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<v Speaker 2>more customers or is it current customers actually borrowing more.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, it's both, but it's probably weighted in the small

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<v Speaker 3>business area to more customers. Now in the middle market area,

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<v Speaker 3>it's driven a little bit by line usage the percentage.

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<v Speaker 1>Drawn on the line on average, and that's our average loans.

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<v Speaker 3>And so it's small business we're adding customers, and middle

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<v Speaker 3>market writing customers, and in large corporate really people don't

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<v Speaker 3>use their lines much in the markets being strong for

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<v Speaker 3>fixed income underwriting take the assets away from it. So

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<v Speaker 3>it's across all that. So if you look at small business,

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<v Speaker 3>they are our activity. IU New borrowers is high. We

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<v Speaker 3>have a big practice lending to dentists and doctor and

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<v Speaker 3>that's been growing pretty well. And we have you know,

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<v Speaker 3>just the general small business small business credit card, which

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<v Speaker 3>is to use to do their operational stuff, a business

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<v Speaker 3>credit card.

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<v Speaker 1>And small business you can see that growing.

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<v Speaker 3>But middle market line draws are basically relatively bouncing around

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<v Speaker 3>at a level that is still about five percentage points

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<v Speaker 3>below where it was pre pandemic, which means that is

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<v Speaker 3>cost of barring what. People aren't being quite as aggressive

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<v Speaker 3>and that's why the economy is slowing down. They're not

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<v Speaker 3>hiring quite as many people, they're not buying that piece

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<v Speaker 3>of equipment.

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<v Speaker 1>They're not doing it because they're a.

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<v Speaker 3>Little worried about final demand and therefore to being careful,

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<v Speaker 3>which is unpleasant for your bank. But it's okay because

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<v Speaker 3>the companies don't make them profitable and the credit quality

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<v Speaker 3>is good.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and the fact needs to slow down a bit,

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<v Speaker 2>be given. We're inflash at the same time from where

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<v Speaker 2>you say, because you have such a vantage point into this,

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<v Speaker 2>is that a straight line that's going down? Do you

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<v Speaker 2>see it leveling off or is.

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<v Speaker 1>It it's a flat line.

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<v Speaker 3>So loans grew a first quarter, second quarter a few

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<v Speaker 3>billion dollars on a tree and fifty base, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>so say eight billions.

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<v Speaker 1>So they grew a little bit.

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<v Speaker 3>All the business lines grew loans, but the wealth management

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<v Speaker 3>business grew faster, which is good because you know, wealthy people,

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<v Speaker 3>as their asset base goes up, tend to use it

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<v Speaker 3>to do something a little more faster than a corporate might.

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<v Speaker 1>There's not a lot of leverage finance going on. There's some,

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<v Speaker 1>not a.

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<v Speaker 3>Lot because deals, the higher prices and multiples and getting

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<v Speaker 3>it all straight.

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<v Speaker 1>That'll work itself through the system.

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<v Speaker 3>And you have a lot of people on your show

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<v Speaker 3>who are private equity colleagues that you know they're sitting

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<v Speaker 3>there saying, you know, I've got lots of money.

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<v Speaker 1>I can't find the deals at the right price. That's

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<v Speaker 1>the key.

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<v Speaker 3>At the right price, I can find deals. And so

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<v Speaker 3>that's a little bit muted. But if you look across

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<v Speaker 3>the board, it's it's solid, growing a bit, but growing

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<v Speaker 3>consistent with the lower growth two percent type growth, lower

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<v Speaker 3>inflation economy. It's not growing as fast as it was coming.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, the pandemic shot up, went down and started

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<v Speaker 3>growing faster. Same with the posits went up and drained

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<v Speaker 3>down or stable. The activity is kind of normalizing now

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<v Speaker 3>and that's where I think the risk of the next

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<v Speaker 3>turn in the track is actually getting the timing right

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<v Speaker 3>to bring the rates down to create a little more

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<v Speaker 3>accommodation in the system, are a little less restriction.

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<v Speaker 2>What are you rejecting on the rate cuts?

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<v Speaker 1>Are companies? Projection?

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<v Speaker 3>Our research team which is terrific Canadas Bounding Plant and

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<v Speaker 3>Research team, the best arsearch TUM has really won this year.

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<v Speaker 3>They had just in their last report said we're probably

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<v Speaker 3>going to come off of that. So, like they usually do,

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<v Speaker 3>they I get on TV the.

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<v Speaker 1>Next day they change it. But the markets at three

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<v Speaker 1>were one somewhere and that was where they'll come out,

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<v Speaker 1>is my guess.

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<v Speaker 2>But maybe more important that is where do you think

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<v Speaker 2>we end up? Because that's the question. We could do

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<v Speaker 2>it this year, next year, but where's the long term

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<v Speaker 2>interest it's going to end out?

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<v Speaker 3>So if you think across time here, that's what's important

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<v Speaker 3>is that our teammates think that we end up around

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<v Speaker 3>three and a half and that's where the FED stops.

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<v Speaker 3>That is a wholly different environment than the last fifteen

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<v Speaker 3>twenty years, where you know, basically there was no interest

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<v Speaker 3>rate got up in sixteen, seventeen, seventeen, eighteen nineteen to two.

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<v Speaker 1>And a half, and then it was cut.

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<v Speaker 3>If people forget at the end of nineteen, we never

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<v Speaker 3>got back to quote a normal rate environment that you

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<v Speaker 3>would have seen in our early careers for years, David,

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<v Speaker 3>where the Fed funds was three and a half are

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<v Speaker 3>sometimes even.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot higher. Ten yure rate was four and a half.

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<v Speaker 3>That normalized rate is where our teammates think it gets to.

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<v Speaker 3>And Cannas and our team's saying, look, they bring inflation

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<v Speaker 3>down and then they'll stop. Because the core underligne growth dynamics.

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<v Speaker 3>The amount of money in the system, the fiscal borrowing

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<v Speaker 3>that went on is still being deployed, the IRA, the

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<v Speaker 3>Infrastructure Act, all this stuff going on is going to

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<v Speaker 3>still be coming through the system.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot of it's not spent.

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<v Speaker 3>It's being spent that will create you know, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>demand and things like that. Therefore, there's probably going to

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<v Speaker 3>be a little more inflation pressure, but it would be

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<v Speaker 3>good for America if we ended up in a more

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<v Speaker 3>normal rate structure in a growing economy. You know that

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<v Speaker 3>three and a half didn't become too restrictive. That would

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<v Speaker 3>be good because that's a much sort of healthier place

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<v Speaker 3>for us to be over time.

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<v Speaker 2>At the same time, if we're three and a half

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<v Speaker 2>is where we're ending up, let's assume there for a second.

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<v Speaker 2>That suggests that where the fit is now is maybe

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<v Speaker 2>not as restrictive as some people think it is.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and there's great debate about our star and a

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<v Speaker 3>naturally the long term rate at which the economists can

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<v Speaker 3>go on, But I think they're restricting. When you hear

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<v Speaker 3>from clients, they're saying, hey, it's costing me what used

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<v Speaker 3>to cost me, you know, two hundred basis points over

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<v Speaker 3>fifty basis points or three hundred bas points over fifty

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<v Speaker 3>base points three and a half percent is now three

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<v Speaker 3>hundred basis points over five and a half eight and

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<v Speaker 3>a half percent. You know, they're like, so it has

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<v Speaker 3>a restrictive effect. They've got to slow that down. And

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<v Speaker 3>that's why you're seeing the barring demand come down and

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<v Speaker 3>deployment of that barring. You're seeing consumer movement of money

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<v Speaker 3>in our franchise come more consistent with a lower growth,

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<v Speaker 3>low inflation economy. All that is going on, and that's

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<v Speaker 3>where the next turn in the track is a trickier one.

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<v Speaker 3>They've put inflation right path where you know, what's the

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<v Speaker 3>debate about too far or not far enough? And that's

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<v Speaker 3>going to be what the market's going to eb and

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<v Speaker 3>flow on a give a day.

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<v Speaker 2>So what about the cost of funding for you for

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<v Speaker 2>your deposits because you don't have to.

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<v Speaker 1>Spend some two are three basis points.

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<v Speaker 2>But I read some accounts in some places people are rotating,

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<v Speaker 2>as they say, in the higher yield products, which costs

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<v Speaker 2>presumably Bank of American others more money. Are you seeing

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<v Speaker 2>that rotation? Do you see it tapering off or ending?

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<v Speaker 3>It's so we showed some pages today. It's kind of

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<v Speaker 3>It depends on the business and the use of money.

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<v Speaker 3>If you look at the core consumer business, the rate

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<v Speaker 3>paid really reflects a huge amount of non interest checking

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<v Speaker 3>as a percentage. So it's a mix of it's a

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<v Speaker 3>mix of what the customer users the money for. You

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<v Speaker 3>go to the investment business, we're still seeing a little

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<v Speaker 3>bit of rate increase.

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<v Speaker 1>You go in the.

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<v Speaker 3>Customer the client business, the banking business, global banks, corporate customers. Basically,

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<v Speaker 3>the year of a year, the quarter of a quarter

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<v Speaker 3>change is next to nothing because it basically priced up

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<v Speaker 3>to the difference between it and the Fed funds rate

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<v Speaker 3>and sitting there. So it really is business and how

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<v Speaker 3>the customers in the money. We sort it by transactional money.

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<v Speaker 1>And investment money.

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<v Speaker 3>And then if the customer is in transaction money, that

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<v Speaker 3>money is moving around. They don't see it in the

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<v Speaker 3>investment money. They're making a discrete decision to want to

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<v Speaker 3>leave it with you or to want to put it

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<v Speaker 3>in a money market account. And that's where you saw

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<v Speaker 3>some of the movement happen. And that's what's been going

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<v Speaker 3>on in wealth management business across all our platform to

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<v Speaker 3>positive growing for the last four or five quarters, ever

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<v Speaker 3>so slowly, which means the stability and pricing is there

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<v Speaker 3>because the rate increases link quarters ten to twelve basis points,

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<v Speaker 3>which is really just a little bit of mixture.

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<v Speaker 2>You have a unique perspective on the consumer, us consumer.

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<v Speaker 2>Give us your take right now. On the consumer. I

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<v Speaker 2>see in your numbers, you're taking more provisions than you were,

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<v Speaker 2>you have more charge you offs. Do you see that continuing?

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<v Speaker 3>So if you talk about it from a credit standpoint,

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<v Speaker 3>a credit card charge of right for cards was like

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<v Speaker 3>three point eight eight I think this quarter or something

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<v Speaker 3>like that.

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<v Speaker 1>We underwrite to stay under four and a half in

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<v Speaker 1>normal times.

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<v Speaker 3>So the point is that it's just been coming back

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<v Speaker 3>up to the level that it was in prior periods.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a little bit higher it was in nineteen, but

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<v Speaker 3>those are very I was like a fifty year credit

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<v Speaker 3>low in company's history.

0:09:22.240 --> 0:09:25.079
<v Speaker 1>So it's normalized, but the rate of increase is interesting.

0:09:25.120 --> 0:09:25.520
<v Speaker 1>Year of the year.

0:09:25.520 --> 0:09:27.400
<v Speaker 3>I think it's up eighty basis points or you know,

0:09:27.480 --> 0:09:28.959
<v Speaker 3>and so everybody's like, oh my gosh, but it's just

0:09:29.000 --> 0:09:31.360
<v Speaker 3>getting back. So what we showed today is that we

0:09:31.400 --> 0:09:34.240
<v Speaker 3>showed the early stage of linquency, what they call five

0:09:34.280 --> 0:09:35.640
<v Speaker 3>stage or thirty.

0:09:35.400 --> 0:09:37.240
<v Speaker 1>Day day delinquency and ninety day delinquacy.

0:09:37.240 --> 0:09:39.199
<v Speaker 3>Its basically flattened out, which means the second half of

0:09:39.240 --> 0:09:41.400
<v Speaker 3>the year you'll see the charge offs flat now, which

0:09:41.400 --> 0:09:44.520
<v Speaker 3>means we've reached normal four percent. So from credit, they're

0:09:44.520 --> 0:09:44.960
<v Speaker 3>doing well.

0:09:45.520 --> 0:09:48.480
<v Speaker 2>We haven't mentioned trading. You had quite a report on

0:09:48.480 --> 0:09:51.400
<v Speaker 2>your equity trading. You're really doing terribly well. What do

0:09:51.440 --> 0:09:52.800
<v Speaker 2>you do to keep that going? Are you going to

0:09:52.840 --> 0:09:53.520
<v Speaker 2>invest more in it?

0:09:53.880 --> 0:09:58.200
<v Speaker 3>We continue to invest along three dimensions technology. Jim Tomorrow

0:09:58.200 --> 0:09:59.600
<v Speaker 3>the team run it, and they've done a great job.

0:10:00.000 --> 0:10:02.280
<v Speaker 3>So five seven years ago he made the decision to

0:10:02.280 --> 0:10:06.440
<v Speaker 3>give more more capabilities, technology, the balance sheet that they

0:10:06.440 --> 0:10:09.480
<v Speaker 3>can use to help their customers achieve their goals and talent,

0:10:09.600 --> 0:10:12.520
<v Speaker 3>and so Jimmy across the board continues to increase and so.

0:10:12.559 --> 0:10:13.440
<v Speaker 1>We feel good about it.

0:10:13.679 --> 0:10:17.920
<v Speaker 3>He made a billion four after taxes quarter, which is.

0:10:17.800 --> 0:10:19.280
<v Speaker 1>A very strong learnings quarter.

0:10:19.320 --> 0:10:21.280
<v Speaker 3>But what's happening is you're seeing back to back billion

0:10:21.320 --> 0:10:23.560
<v Speaker 3>dollar plus quarters where used to be a billion dollars

0:10:23.600 --> 0:10:25.719
<v Speaker 3>plus and drop to five hundred when the markets slowed down.

0:10:25.760 --> 0:10:28.160
<v Speaker 3>You're seeing much more stability to break even point in

0:10:28.160 --> 0:10:30.719
<v Speaker 3>the businesses on a relative basis, much lower. The best

0:10:30.760 --> 0:10:33.599
<v Speaker 3>second quarter they've had since I think twenty twelve or

0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:35.360
<v Speaker 3>something like that, which a lot of that was just

0:10:35.400 --> 0:10:37.320
<v Speaker 3>when assets were marked up and came back to the

0:10:37.360 --> 0:10:40.960
<v Speaker 3>system of profit. They've done a great job and Tom

0:10:40.960 --> 0:10:43.880
<v Speaker 3>Montag six seven years ago started this, Jimmy took it over,

0:10:43.920 --> 0:10:45.920
<v Speaker 3>has done a spectacle job of implementing it, and we

0:10:45.920 --> 0:10:49.600
<v Speaker 3>feel confident we'll keep giving them more r WA bersuaded assets,

0:10:49.679 --> 0:10:53.440
<v Speaker 3>balance sheet capital and investment in technology because that's obviously

0:10:53.679 --> 0:10:58.160
<v Speaker 3>very expensive business to run from a day day basis.

0:10:57.880 --> 0:10:59.560
<v Speaker 2>Right, I know, you want to grow all the business

0:10:59.520 --> 0:11:00.920
<v Speaker 2>at back of the America, But do you have a

0:11:00.960 --> 0:11:03.160
<v Speaker 2>strategy about the balance between what I would think was

0:11:03.200 --> 0:11:06.280
<v Speaker 2>a traditional bank lending interest receipts as opposed to the

0:11:06.360 --> 0:11:08.880
<v Speaker 2>fee side, whether it's investment banking or as a manager,

0:11:09.000 --> 0:11:10.840
<v Speaker 2>are you rebalancing the bank?

0:11:11.200 --> 0:11:14.440
<v Speaker 3>Well, this quarter happened to be half the earnings were

0:11:14.440 --> 0:11:17.640
<v Speaker 3>from people, half the earnings for institutions. Out of twenty

0:11:17.640 --> 0:11:21.720
<v Speaker 3>five billion of revenue, fourteen was spread revenue and eleven

0:11:21.880 --> 0:11:26.240
<v Speaker 3>was round numbers. Is feed revenue because the market dictates

0:11:26.240 --> 0:11:26.560
<v Speaker 3>a lot.

0:11:26.480 --> 0:11:27.240
<v Speaker 1>Of feed revenues.

0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:28.440
<v Speaker 3>We could do it, but if you think about it

0:11:28.480 --> 0:11:30.840
<v Speaker 3>from the businesses. In the consumer business, we made a

0:11:30.880 --> 0:11:33.880
<v Speaker 3>decided decision to lower feed burdens on customers and a

0:11:33.920 --> 0:11:36.680
<v Speaker 3>trade off for that was long term customer favorability run

0:11:36.720 --> 0:11:40.680
<v Speaker 3>eight percent across all the platform engagement places, the brand

0:11:41.200 --> 0:11:43.560
<v Speaker 3>favorability into seventy percent, up twenty points over the last

0:11:43.600 --> 0:11:46.720
<v Speaker 3>ten years. So we made a decision lower the fee burden,

0:11:47.160 --> 0:11:49.200
<v Speaker 3>but get it paid back and transaction accounts those are

0:11:49.240 --> 0:11:52.120
<v Speaker 3>these zero interest deposits that's worked wonderfully.

0:11:52.160 --> 0:11:54.160
<v Speaker 1>So we grow a million counts in a year.

0:11:54.440 --> 0:11:56.400
<v Speaker 3>They started two or three thousand dollars, they mature to

0:11:56.440 --> 0:11:57.559
<v Speaker 3>seven to ten thousand dollars.

0:11:58.080 --> 0:11:59.960
<v Speaker 1>It's all you know, zero interest rate money.

0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:02.400
<v Speaker 3>It's very strong and that's if it's a young kids,

0:12:02.520 --> 0:12:04.520
<v Speaker 3>the customer of the future, and that's what we're doing.

0:12:04.840 --> 0:12:07.920
<v Speaker 3>So that balance and fees there and wealth manage it's

0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:10.679
<v Speaker 3>all gonna be about feed driven. It has, but the

0:12:11.120 --> 0:12:14.520
<v Speaker 3>incremental growth seven percent increase in fees your view, that's

0:12:14.520 --> 0:12:16.800
<v Speaker 3>what we're driving there. Jimmy has a mix and the

0:12:16.920 --> 0:12:20.520
<v Speaker 3>trading business and then you know, and then the commercial

0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:23.439
<v Speaker 3>business is actually balanced investment banking fees which everybody talks

0:12:23.440 --> 0:12:25.920
<v Speaker 3>about a billion and six, but the whole revenue business

0:12:26.160 --> 0:12:29.559
<v Speaker 3>dominated by lending and deposits for corporate customers. So you

0:12:29.679 --> 0:12:31.880
<v Speaker 3>have to keep your heads on and there's no we'd

0:12:31.920 --> 0:12:33.400
<v Speaker 3>never say if it's this, we're happy. If it's not,

0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:35.079
<v Speaker 3>we're happy. We want to grow all aspects of it.

0:12:35.800 --> 0:12:38.080
<v Speaker 2>Right, and thank you so very much. That's brought back

0:12:38.120 --> 0:12:39.760
<v Speaker 2>to America's Brian moynihan.