Speaker 1: Welcome to the favorites of the podcast part of the
Speaker 1: Volume podcast Network. I'm Chad Millman of the Action Network.
Speaker 1: Today we officially kick off our twenty twenty five NFL
Speaker 1: season preview episodes. Training camps open at the end of
Speaker 1: next week. We've made it through the long, hard, cold
Speaker 1: winter of no football. Our division by division betting breakdowns
Speaker 1: will begin at the end of this month. But before
Speaker 1: we get to that, Simon and I, we'll do our
Speaker 1: table Setter episodes to frame what we think when it
Speaker 1: comes to all things betting in the NFL. Today, we're
Speaker 1: going to start with the big picture playoff prognostication. Before
Speaker 1: I dive into the topic, let me bring it my
Speaker 1: co host, my companion, Michael Padre, my BFF professional better
Speaker 1: sim In Hunter Ella, sim In.
Speaker 2: Chad, how are we doing?
Speaker 1: I guess we're ready. I guess it's time. I guess
Speaker 1: all the planning, all the research, all the conversation, all
Speaker 1: the debate, it's time to quite literally put some of
Speaker 1: that into action. Today we're going to play a little
Speaker 1: game with the help of our Action Network colleague Brandon Anderson.
Speaker 1: He actually did this a few weeks ago on the
Speaker 1: Action Pod with former colleague Anthony Debundo, now of The Ringer,
Speaker 1: and we loved the concept. We're going to predict this
Speaker 1: year's fourteen playoff teams, but you and I do every year.
Speaker 1: But with Brandon, we're incorporating a little bit of a twist. Brandon,
Speaker 1: you are broadcasting from your dungeon bunker, visiting your family
Speaker 1: in North Dakota, where apparently they no longer we have electricity.
Speaker 1: The host state has gone fully off the grid. So
Speaker 1: you know, people who are watching, understand the circumstances for you,
Speaker 1: but explain what we're doing today.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, the great news is the internet
Speaker 3: speed is slowly getting better here in North Dakota. My
Speaker 3: family's been at ten MVPs for years. We're up to
Speaker 3: fifteen now. But they got flags in the backyard. They're
Speaker 3: finally putting in like the optic cable. So I think
Speaker 3: maybe a year from now, next time I'm here, we'll
Speaker 3: actually have real internet and have the good setup, but
Speaker 3: here from the dungeon. Either way, concept is pretty easy.
Speaker 3: Since we moved to fourteen playoff teams. Year by year,
Speaker 3: about eight of the fourteen teams return the next season,
Speaker 3: about six drop out, so that's almost half that's one
Speaker 3: away from half. Obviously over forty percent, so more turnover
Speaker 3: than we expect. We know how the NFL is the
Speaker 3: League of parody. So the exercise Dubundo and I did was, Okay,
Speaker 3: we have to choose six teams to drop out and
Speaker 3: six new ones to come in. You gotta follow the rules.
Speaker 3: Like you if you drop out a division leader and
Speaker 3: you have known from that division, you've got to have
Speaker 3: someone in, et cetera. So today we're doing a little
Speaker 3: bit differently. We didn't tell you guys the twist. We
Speaker 3: just picked our playoff teams and we're gonna kind of
Speaker 3: see where do we overlap. What do we end up with.
Speaker 3: We end up with three teams that all three of
Speaker 3: us have in in the NFC, three in the AFC,
Speaker 3: So kind of quickly YadA YadA those and then I
Speaker 3: think talk through the teams that we differ on and
Speaker 3: kind of see where we overlap.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, I think that we ended up naturally sort
Speaker 1: of finding a way to get to that at six
Speaker 1: of fourteen average, just by doing it blindly, not even
Speaker 1: knowing that this was the concept. So let's start with
Speaker 1: the AFC. The playoff picture, I think is a lot clearer.
Speaker 1: All of us have the Chiefs, the Ravens, and the Bills. Obvious,
Speaker 1: none of us agree on the final four team, so
Speaker 1: let's dive in here. One obvious AFC team that missed
Speaker 1: last season with a notable caveat was Cincinnati with Joe
Speaker 1: Burrow coming off of the injury the year before and
Speaker 1: then the team really struggling to start the year. Brandon,
Speaker 1: you and I both have Cincinnati getting to the playoffs.
Speaker 1: I'll be honest. I had Cincinnati winning the division. So
Speaker 1: when I went through this, I had the Ravens as
Speaker 1: the wildcard team from that division. Simon, you at Cincinnati
Speaker 1: to miss explain yourself.
Speaker 2: Uh, they're bad, JAD. It's pretty simp when you break
Speaker 2: it down. They are a really bad run team organization,
Speaker 2: and they got lucky right they stumbled into Joe Brow
Speaker 2: with the number one pick and they're very fortunate. So
Speaker 2: every year they will have a chance to make this playoffs.
Speaker 2: But you can get them on a plus number to
Speaker 2: miss the playoffs. This is a bad team or really
Speaker 2: bad defense that could get potentially get worse before they've
Speaker 2: ended the season. Like they just keep doing things wrong
Speaker 2: and it's catching up to them. Where oh great, we
Speaker 2: resigned Chase and Higgins our stead of receivers with Joe Burrow.
Speaker 2: That's not their issues. Their issues that offensive line in
Speaker 2: the defense, two things they have not really attacked this offseason.
Speaker 2: So to me, you know, they got lucky to even
Speaker 2: be close to making the playoffs last season when they
Speaker 2: played so poorly against winning teams and they had a
Speaker 2: pretty easy schedule, right, they caught a bad Browns team
Speaker 2: that had backup in they caught a bad Pittsburgh team
Speaker 2: when Pittsburgh was kind of on the downslope toward the
Speaker 2: end of the season. So to me, it's gonna be
Speaker 2: a lot tougher in that division. And the Ravens I
Speaker 2: just put so far above them. I don't think it's close,
Speaker 2: so that they's just got a team that's gonna be
Speaker 2: overrated because it is Joe Burrow, who we all know,
Speaker 2: top ten, top six, top five quarterbacks. So to me,
Speaker 2: it makes sense why you guys would pick them. I'm
Speaker 2: just the other way. I hate the way it's coming
Speaker 2: into the season, even the drama with their first round pick,
Speaker 2: all of it, and Hendrix's it's so bad to me,
Speaker 2: and their defense to me, might be by them five
Speaker 2: in the league.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Look, the we're going to do a training camp Questions episode,
Speaker 1: and definitely one of the questions that I'm thinking about
Speaker 1: is can the Bengals stop bangling because of what they're
Speaker 1: doing with Trey Henderson, because of what they're doing with
Speaker 1: Shamar Stewart at their first round pick, who they're you know,
Speaker 1: trying to set precedent setting contracts with for first round picks. Brandon,
Speaker 1: what is your reasoning for the Bengals being in the playoffs?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think actually, for me, the reasoning is just
Speaker 3: that the offense is so good with Burrow, with Tea
Speaker 3: and Chase, especially last year when those receivers were both
Speaker 3: on the field and I know it's not given we
Speaker 3: got the contract settled now, when those two and burw
Speaker 3: were on the field, they were an unstoppable offense last season,
Speaker 3: like Jamar Chase is breaking records in some games and
Speaker 3: doing just crazy stuff. Tea was really good. The being
Speaker 3: that good historically puts you in the playoff picture. Like
Speaker 3: as long as you just have Burrow, Tea and Chase healthy,
Speaker 3: you're in the playoff picture. They have won nine games
Speaker 3: or more in four straight seasons, so all they really
Speaker 3: need to do is stay mostly healthy and please, for
Speaker 3: the love of God, not start on three every single season.
Speaker 3: Can we just have a normal September and not dig
Speaker 3: a hole immediately? I don't know, So I don't know
Speaker 3: if we can bet on them to make the playoffs.
Speaker 3: I think you're right time to point out that the
Speaker 3: plus number has been a good bet to make at
Speaker 3: the start of the year because they usually dig themselves
Speaker 3: a hole, and if anything, you can just bet plus
Speaker 3: on the other side and just be done. I got
Speaker 3: some money either way. Go ahead, Bengals, do your thing.
Speaker 3: I need to worry about it anymore. To me, Burrow belongs. Look,
Speaker 3: we named off Chiefs Bill's Ravens. For most people, that
Speaker 3: would be your top three quarterbacks in the NFL. For me,
Speaker 3: Joe Burrow is in that group with those three, not
Speaker 3: necessarily as the fourth option. If you have a star
Speaker 3: quarterback that's that good, you're in the playof And in
Speaker 3: the AFC, I have a lot more teams that I'm
Speaker 3: pretty comfortable leaving out of the mix in the NFC.
Speaker 3: I would not say put them in as easily, but
Speaker 3: I kind of needed teams frankly in the AFC, so
Speaker 3: I'm happy to put the Bengals as an option.
Speaker 1: Here. By the way, a little preview for a future
Speaker 1: episode that we're doing later this week are Top ten Quarterbacks,
Speaker 1: which a lot of people talking about quarterbacks this week
Speaker 1: and their top ten lists, and Simon and I do
Speaker 1: it every year, but we also incorporate a lot about
Speaker 1: quarterbacks that we'd want to be betting on or that
Speaker 1: we'd be afraid to be betting against. At the end
Speaker 1: of the game, you say Joe Burrow would be, you know,
Speaker 1: top four, Brandon, I don't disagree. One of us on
Speaker 1: this podcast right now had Joe Burrow outside his top five.
Speaker 1: That's how down he is on Joe Burrow. The thing
Speaker 1: about the Bengals, and I agree with you like I
Speaker 1: am all in on Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow's biggest issues
Speaker 1: Sometimes in this offensive line is terrible, but the issue
Speaker 1: is Joe Burrow, and Joe Burrow likes to play hero ball.
Speaker 1: He will hold the ball too long with a bad
Speaker 1: offensive line and continue to try to make plays which
Speaker 1: puts himself in trouble physically, and also make sure that
Speaker 1: he gets a lot more sacks than any other quarterback,
Speaker 1: which is a constant problem. So it can't all be
Speaker 1: on the offensive line, it can't all be on the defense.
Speaker 1: And as good as Joe Burrow is, he has made
Speaker 1: catastrophic mistakes in inopportune moments, either by taking sacks or
Speaker 1: throwing bad balls when he's under pressure. So I understand
Speaker 1: Simon's position. I'm just choosing to believe that they have
Speaker 1: to get it right and that this will be the year,
Speaker 1: and that two teams will come out of the AFC North,
Speaker 1: and I don't think it's going to be all right.
Speaker 1: And I do think it's going to be the Bengals
Speaker 1: and the Ravens. The Cincinnati Bengals came roaring back next one. Simon,
Speaker 1: you and I both have the Texans back in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Brandon does not. I know why I believe it. Tell
Speaker 1: me why you believe it?
Speaker 2: Just the defense. Like to me, they're so talented with
Speaker 2: the coaching. It's in that division that there's they're the
Speaker 2: only team with something legit great. All the other teams
Speaker 2: have questions, right, I have so many questions about Jacksonville.
Speaker 2: I mean, hell, we'll get into Houston here. We have
Speaker 2: questions about the offensive line like that. That's what we're
Speaker 2: freaked out about it. Is CJ gonna take another step
Speaker 2: because last year we all agree he just didn't play
Speaker 2: up to the level we were expecting after his rookie season.
Speaker 2: So if they're in any other division, chat, I probably
Speaker 2: would be more down on them because they're in that division.
Speaker 2: Last year, they shouldn't have won it, and they just
Speaker 2: all these other teams fall apart, and they just kept
Speaker 2: turning it out because they have such good coaching, such
Speaker 2: good defense. It just keeps them above water. So to me,
Speaker 2: I'm with you. I was trying to force in the Titans.
Speaker 2: You know how much I love the Titans is up
Speaker 2: coming here, But I'm just trying to be realistic here.
Speaker 2: And I know people put a hard earn money on
Speaker 2: this bet. So to me, if I'm going to go
Speaker 2: with a side, I got to go with Houston making
Speaker 2: of that division, you know.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think in the end, I was really impressed
Speaker 1: with CJ. Stroud and how he played in the playoffs,
Speaker 1: even with a terrible offensive line. And if they can
Speaker 1: recognize how to improve that offensive line just a little
Speaker 1: bit and he can get a little bit better at
Speaker 1: getting rid of the ball quickly and improve his QB
Speaker 1: pressure rate in which sometimes he was just taking sacks
Speaker 1: I think because he was trying to make a play
Speaker 1: and it was scrambling and in vulnerable positions so soon
Speaker 1: after the ball was snapped. They are legitimately just the
Speaker 1: more talented team. He's a more talented quarterback than anyone
Speaker 1: else in the division. Their defense is really fantastic. I
Speaker 1: think they've got the moors ablished coach than any other
Speaker 1: team in the division. So it was a toss up
Speaker 1: between Texans and the team that Brandon liked. Brandon, go
Speaker 1: ahead and tell us who you think will make it
Speaker 1: instead of the Texans.
Speaker 3: So for me, this really is a bet against the Texans.
Speaker 3: Like I just I found last year's team hard to inspire.
Speaker 3: They finished with a zero point differential on the season.
Speaker 3: The defense was great, no doubt. On paper, the Texans
Speaker 3: defense is the best unit in the division. It's a
Speaker 3: terrible division. Like Simon said, if we had other options here,
Speaker 3: it'd be a lot easier. I'm not excited or truly
Speaker 3: about the option out to give you, but I'm following
Speaker 3: the rules. I can't just knock the whole division out.
Speaker 3: I don't believe in the Texans. I'm not there yet.
Speaker 2: On the Titans.
Speaker 3: I think they'll be better. I like the reasons you
Speaker 3: like them, Simon, just I'm not ready to go better
Speaker 3: enough to win the division. I am going to reluctantly
Speaker 3: take the Jacksonville Jaguars. And part of the case here
Speaker 3: is again looking at defense, Simon, the Texans, I thought,
Speaker 3: maybe we're a top three defense last year on paper,
Speaker 3: could be the number one defense this year. Defense is
Speaker 3: really unpredictable and not sticky season. This season, I can
Speaker 3: predict pretty consistently who the top offenses are, Like, we
Speaker 3: can do the top offenses pod and it's gonna be
Speaker 3: name the quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen,
Speaker 3: Joe Burr like elite quarterbacks or elite year to year
Speaker 3: and have elite offenses. Defense is a lot more Malley
Speaker 3: about changes a lot more so. I agree the Bengals
Speaker 3: defense was a bottom five defense last year, but historically
Speaker 3: there's a decent chance that they go from like twenty
Speaker 3: eighth to twenty second, and just that amount of difference,
Speaker 3: even just accidentally getting a little better matters when the
Speaker 3: offense is that good. With Houston, it's the other way
Speaker 3: if you fall from second or third to eighth and
Speaker 3: you're still a pretty good defense. Well, if the offense
Speaker 3: didn't improve a bunch, that's a pretty big drop off.
Speaker 3: And so to me, I'm gonna like default to offense
Speaker 3: feeling better. So I have the the Texans falling down,
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with the Jacksonville Jaguars. You hear the
Speaker 3: excitement in my voice right that the pick here is
Speaker 3: Liam Cohen. And I hope that Liam Cohen can do
Speaker 3: with Trevor Lawrence what he's done at pass stops. I
Speaker 3: think especially Brian Thomas looks like the next just stud receiver.
Speaker 3: And now I don't even know what he's going to
Speaker 3: be yet, But whatever Travis Hunter is, maybe it's a
Speaker 3: little boost at receiver, maybe it's a little boost on defense.
Speaker 3: The area of where he can help them, I'm not
Speaker 3: sure yet, but I do believe in his talent what
Speaker 3: he can do there, and I like the coaching changes
Speaker 3: that they made. I think there's a lot of low
Speaker 3: hanging fruit from the team. I can see a world
Speaker 3: where with Liam Cohen, with these receivers, could Trevor Lawrence
Speaker 3: be the best quarterback in this division. I think that's
Speaker 3: a very possible world out there. The talent is there.
Speaker 3: It's not gonna be cam Ward yet, It's not gonna
Speaker 3: be whatever Indianapolis has, Like, I never consider them because
Speaker 3: I can't even get on board with who their quarterback is.
Speaker 3: Could it be Trevor Lawrence? Could it be nine and
Speaker 3: eight or ten and seven? That's probably enough in this division.
Speaker 3: Houston's offensive line I think got worse even than it
Speaker 3: was last year with Laramy Tunsel gone. They might be
Speaker 3: the worst offensive line in the league. And that's another
Speaker 3: more predictable thing. Usually I'm kind of just taking the unpredictable.
Speaker 3: With Jacksonville, I don't really know what I'm getting, but
Speaker 3: there's plenty of talent there. There's a lot of talent
Speaker 3: on defense, even if it hasn't been good yet. Maybe
Speaker 3: a new coordinator, maybe some new plans can get things
Speaker 3: going there. Just give Jacksonville a chance because I got
Speaker 3: to pick somebody in the division. That's the case.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it really comes down to which quarterback
Speaker 1: do you believe in? Right and CJ. Stroud now two
Speaker 1: years in a row, playoff victories in each year, division
Speaker 1: titles in each year, even with a dreadful offensive line.
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence, third coach, in five years, really only one
Speaker 1: good season, even on the field when he's been healthy,
Speaker 1: consistently missing touch passes in the red zone, consistently being inaccurate,
Speaker 1: not making the big plays. I am not willing to
Speaker 1: bet on his unpredictability versus c J. Stroud's upside to
Speaker 1: me and Simon, you're with me, Simon and I are together.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And it also feels like we're all gonna look
Speaker 2: at the ind of the here and be like Daniel
Speaker 2: Jones the Colts, they won this division. We should have known.
Speaker 2: So that's I'm with Brandon. This feels like a really
Speaker 2: stupid division. So I get why he's going upside. I
Speaker 2: just I'm playing it safe. As we all are here
Speaker 2: in the AFC. It just feels like we're in an
Speaker 2: era where it's very top heavy in both divisions, where
Speaker 2: the best are truly the best, and then there's the
Speaker 2: rest that are just trying to make into that little group.
Speaker 2: So the Texans, I'm with you. There's a lot of questions,
Speaker 2: but man, is this division just gross?
Speaker 1: Yeah? That was sort of It came down to Houston
Speaker 1: and Jacksonville for me, and it was a flip of
Speaker 1: a coin. Last year's Wild Cards, Chargers, Broncos, Steelers. Brandon
Speaker 1: and I have the Chargers back in Denver and Pittsburgh out.
Speaker 1: Simon has the opposite Denver and Pittsburgh in Chargers out. Uh, Simon,
Speaker 1: I want you to go first, explain why you like
Speaker 1: Denver and why you like Pittsburgh and why you don't
Speaker 1: like the Chargers.
Speaker 2: Yeah, really really boring. Once again, just went back to
Speaker 2: it where it's the coaching. I feel like that makes
Speaker 2: such a big difference. And we saw last year where
Speaker 2: you know, Pittsburgh and Denver pretty shocking to see them
Speaker 2: make runs where Pittsburgh did it with Justin Fields and
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson, Like that's pretty incredible. And the fact that
Speaker 2: you know it's a team that just feels like this
Speaker 2: is their run, right all the they have all these guys,
Speaker 2: all these veteran players that kind of know this is it.
Speaker 2: I mean, obviously what's going on with TJ. Watt's a
Speaker 2: big difference here. Like if we're doing this later and
Speaker 2: I knew he was already gone and traded, probably would
Speaker 2: be a difference maker because he is that and to
Speaker 2: that defense. Me and Chat I talk all the time
Speaker 2: about the splits when he plays for them when he
Speaker 2: doesn't play for them. But just looking at this team
Speaker 2: on paper, I just I just trust the coach like
Speaker 2: he just always finds to make it work. And that's
Speaker 2: such a big deal in AFC. And then same with Denver.
Speaker 2: It's like Denver another team that might have a top
Speaker 2: five defense, top three offensive line. Bon Knicks, that might
Speaker 2: have been the peak what we saw last season. Like
Speaker 2: he's old as shit, I get it, but that peak
Speaker 2: was pretty good, Like he kept improving. That's what you
Speaker 2: want to see with these rookies. The NFL season is
Speaker 2: so long and it's such a mental game. And that
Speaker 2: was so impressive about Jane Daniels and Bo Knicks is
Speaker 2: that you know a lot of their rookies they hit
Speaker 2: that rookie wall at some point. These guys broke through it.
Speaker 2: They kept improving. Their teams didn't make the playoffs. So
Speaker 2: with Denver, it's just really about the coaching and the
Speaker 2: fact that they've just drafted so well and they just
Speaker 2: have a great team there. So I again I wanted
Speaker 2: to take them out like I like putting in new teams.
Speaker 2: It's just who are these other teams I trust more
Speaker 2: than those two teams, Like I just when you're talking
Speaker 2: about the head coaching, those two guys are Hall of famers.
Speaker 2: It's tough for me to trust the coach in Cincinnati
Speaker 2: rather than the coaching of Pittsburgh and Denver. So that's
Speaker 2: where it's like it gets really hazy there at that
Speaker 2: final spot putting in these wild card rounds.
Speaker 3: Brandon, Yeah, to me, this is really with these teams,
Speaker 3: especially two of them, it's about floor versus ceiling. And
Speaker 3: with Pittsburgh and Denver, I can't get to a spot
Speaker 3: where I'm excited about a ceiling being really above like
Speaker 3: ten wins. And I know ten wins gets you to
Speaker 3: the playoffs, but ten wins is a win or two
Speaker 3: wins away from missing the playoffs. And I don't think
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh and Denver are gonna be bad teams. But like Pittsburgh,
Speaker 3: we know with Tomlin the five hundred streak, right, we
Speaker 3: know that every year we talk about the five hundred streak.
Speaker 3: What we don't talk about is they've had ten wins
Speaker 3: our the last six of the last seven seasons. So
Speaker 3: that is a hard cap on a ceiling for a
Speaker 3: team that like, Okay, you blow one or two games
Speaker 3: and now you're five hundred and now you're out of
Speaker 3: the playoffs. And we got Aaron Tja Watt, Cam Hayward
Speaker 3: probably maybe the three best most important players on the team,
Speaker 3: certainly up on the list, all ancient in football years,
Speaker 3: and Aaron Rodgers fourteen to twenty one the last three
Speaker 3: years as a starter. I just feel like the ceiling
Speaker 3: is capped there. And I don't like Aaron Rodgers fit
Speaker 3: with Arthur Smith offense at all. So I don't know
Speaker 3: how that's going to go. I don't know how it
Speaker 3: sets up, but we've seen this not go well with
Speaker 3: Rodgers recently. With Denver, to me as just a pile
Speaker 3: of red flags. I talk about not believing in defense
Speaker 3: from year to year. Denver was top five defense and
Speaker 3: special teams last year, and both of those scream regression
Speaker 3: to the mean. And if it's even a little bit
Speaker 3: Denver's offense, I don't believe in much at all. I'm
Speaker 3: not a Bonex guy, never been a Bonex guy. I
Speaker 3: think last year probably was the best will get if
Speaker 3: the defense is worse. Now you're starting with a ball
Speaker 3: maybe fifteen yards further back on the field, and now
Speaker 3: Bow's gotta actually makes some throws right now, he's gonna
Speaker 3: actually do the thing and be quarterback, not just be
Speaker 3: game manager. And I think the offense gets worse as
Speaker 3: the defense gets worse. I don't believe in that coaching
Speaker 3: staff quite as much. I don't believe advanced Joseph on
Speaker 3: defense to have them be that incredible again. And in
Speaker 3: both teams cases, Pittsburgh and Denver, they're both in tough
Speaker 3: divisions too, right, They're both in divisions where each of
Speaker 3: us has two other teams in Pittsburgh's division in the playoffs. Well,
Speaker 3: I guess Simon has Pittsburgh in the playoffs, but tough divisions,
Speaker 3: there certainly are three clearer playoff contenders Chargers with the
Speaker 3: other division as well, so I think two. You know,
Speaker 3: that's like if you look at Chiefs Chargers or Ravens Bengals,
Speaker 3: that might be three losses already right there for either
Speaker 3: one of these teams as well. So to me, the
Speaker 3: Chargers are not a ton different on the floor ceiling thing.
Speaker 3: The difference is, I'm gonna come back to the quarterback again,
Speaker 3: justin Herbert and no we even seen it long enough,
Speaker 3: but we saw him make a better leap in the
Speaker 3: second half of the season, we saw him more passing
Speaker 3: as they kind of open up the offense a little bit.
Speaker 3: They added backed in on the line. They're gonna get
Speaker 3: year two of Lad McConkey. And again here's ceiling versus floor.
Speaker 3: We're talking about the scene capped with Tomlin and with
Speaker 3: the Broncos. Jim Harbaugh's floor to me, in five seasons
Speaker 3: in the NFL, he's never finished below five hundred either.
Speaker 3: But he's at eleven wins or more four of the
Speaker 3: five seasons, and most of those are in the sixteen
Speaker 3: game seasons, right, So eleven and five are better. I'm
Speaker 3: not excited about the Chargers. I don't think I want
Speaker 3: a Super Bowl ticket on the Chargers, but justin Herbert
Speaker 3: to me has the talent to maybe push into that
Speaker 3: top four or five quarterback range if he ever pulls
Speaker 3: it together. We're running out of time here, but I
Speaker 3: can see a floor and get excited about the ceiling,
Speaker 3: and I rather have that delta pushing up than the
Speaker 3: other two teams where the delta seems down to me.
Speaker 3: So I have Chargers in with the high floor and
Speaker 3: the Steelers and the who am I talking about the
Speaker 3: Steelers In the Broncos I have out with the cap ceiling.
Speaker 2: You're not worried about regressing that from Chargers defense, Yeah,
Speaker 2: I am really exceeded what they should have. You can
Speaker 2: agree with that.
Speaker 3: That was incredible the talent on certainly of these three teams,
Speaker 3: there's no question which defense I feel least good about
Speaker 3: going into the season. It just again kind of fitting
Speaker 3: in my theme here, especially in the AFC. I don't
Speaker 3: feel great about a lot of teams in the conference.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna trust the quarterback and the offenses that I
Speaker 3: feel good about. I'm basically saying I trust my ability
Speaker 3: to evaluate offense better than I trust my ability to
Speaker 3: evaluate defense. Defense is just gonna push toward the middle,
Speaker 3: and I trust. Yeah. I'm taking what might just be
Speaker 3: the five best quarterbacks in the NFL and put them
Speaker 3: in the playoffs, and so I don't mind doing that.
Speaker 1: In the AFC, I cannot disagree with any of the
Speaker 1: analysis from Brandon. It's why I have the Chargers in.
Speaker 1: I'm betting on the better quarterback, Simon. We love Sean Payton.
Speaker 1: He's a great coach to bet on, but so is
Speaker 1: Jim Harby. And there were games last year, especially a
Speaker 1: game between the two of them where Harbaugh just out
Speaker 1: coached Sean Payton and won a game. Because of that,
Speaker 1: I'm going to bet on Harbaugh. I'm gonna bet on Herbert.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to bet on bow Knicks. That's really
Speaker 1: what it's coming down to. And I think Aaron Rodgers
Speaker 1: has just been fading. He's just not that good of
Speaker 1: a quarterback anymore. So that's why I ultimately decided on
Speaker 1: Cincinnati in that division instead of Pittsburgh. The summarize, we've
Speaker 1: all got Kansas City, Baltimore, Buffalo really going out on
Speaker 1: Alledge with those picks. The summarize, we've all got Kansas City, Baltimore, Buffalo,
Speaker 1: really going out on Alledge with those picks. My next
Speaker 1: three Houston Chargers, Cincinnati, Simon, Houston, Denver, Pittsburgh, Brandon Chargers, Jacksonville, Cincinnati,
Speaker 1: one more spot for each of us. Brandon and Chad agree.
Speaker 1: Mike Rabel New England Patriots, and I will kick it
Speaker 1: off and say a I love Rabel. I think is
Speaker 1: an instant difference maker. I think he can make this
Speaker 1: team two to three games better. I like that they
Speaker 1: drafted high for the offensive line. They've nominally improved the
Speaker 1: receiving corps. Drake May showed enough last year that when
Speaker 1: he had no webs in weapons, he had moxie and
Speaker 1: an ability to move the ball and defensively, this team
Speaker 1: is also improving, so you know it. It's not commanders like,
Speaker 1: but to me, it is Commander's light. So that's why
Speaker 1: I liked the Patriots. Brandon back me up.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think you made the case. I
Speaker 3: agree with all that. I love building in the trenches,
Speaker 3: Will Campbell, Morgan, Moses, Scared Bradbury. This was probably the
Speaker 3: worst line in the league last year. This could be
Speaker 3: towards the league average line once they kind of jel
Speaker 3: all and get used to things. Drake May I am
Speaker 3: very excited about. I think there is a world where
Speaker 3: Drake May is what we think about last season into
Speaker 3: the year. CJ. Stroud, what we think about maybe when
Speaker 3: we've done with Trevor Lawrence, where we bump him up
Speaker 3: into like the eighth spot, you know, that young quarterback
Speaker 3: that makes the leap. I think Drake May looked really
Speaker 3: good last year, especially given the context of terrible blocking,
Speaker 3: no real weapons, and he still played really good football.
Speaker 3: I frankly don't love long term the Vrabel and Josh
Speaker 3: McDaniel's thing. I'm less excited about the future five years
Speaker 3: from now about Drake May, but I think in the
Speaker 3: immediate future, this again is a ceiling floor thing. I
Speaker 3: think they had a lot of floor. They increased the
Speaker 3: offensive line on defense, they get Milton Williams, they get
Speaker 3: Harold Landry, Carlton Davis, the best corner in the market.
Speaker 3: I think Davis and Christian Gonzalez could give them maybe
Speaker 3: the best corners in the league if things turn out
Speaker 3: well there. So I think just raising the floor by saying, Okay,
Speaker 3: let's just get some guys, get some guys who can
Speaker 3: actually play football for us, and give us a chance.
Speaker 3: The only bumber here, Chad, is that everyone else thinks
Speaker 3: this too. Like the Patriots, there's no value on betting
Speaker 3: them to do anything because what are they favored in
Speaker 3: like eleven games already going into the year when they
Speaker 3: were terrible last year. So I don't know. I wonder
Speaker 3: if I ended up swerving on this, just trying to
Speaker 3: find value somewhere else because there's really no way to
Speaker 3: bet this right now because everyone's already in the Patriots.
Speaker 1: Well, simon giving you an option, right here lay it
Speaker 1: on us. Who's your seventh team?
Speaker 2: Well, I will say to the Patriots, just what you
Speaker 2: guys talk about physical dead on arrival. Everyone's just in
Speaker 2: on it because they have an easy schedule. The Vrabel bump,
Speaker 2: Drake may your two jump, I get it. I didn't
Speaker 2: pick them obviously, because to me, it's it's gonna come
Speaker 2: down to I trust coaches that are in new spots
Speaker 2: like Vrabel, that are talented, but with a veteran quarterback
Speaker 2: that I can trust as well. And that's why I
Speaker 2: ended up on Vegas, and I'm gonna save it because
Speaker 2: there's a lot of data to back it up. I want,
Speaker 2: I want to dive more into it. But Gino Smith
Speaker 2: splits between outdoors and indoors is massive, and going from
Speaker 2: Seattle to Vegas, it's gonna be a big deal for him,
Speaker 2: and especially in that offense where you know, to me,
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a really old school what Pete Carroll
Speaker 2: wants to do with the Marshaun Lynch Russell Wilson type
Speaker 2: of style. Right, They're gonna be a run heavy team
Speaker 2: with gent and I love Gino Smith aspect of it,
Speaker 2: so I'm the hardest part is trying to find the
Speaker 2: last place team that makes the jump. Like, that's what
Speaker 2: I'm looking for here, because we always know that randomly happens.
Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't know why I ended up
Speaker 2: on Vegas. It really again, I was looking at Tennessee,
Speaker 2: but I was just like, man, this just feels like
Speaker 2: the type of spot that like, we're not not overlooking
Speaker 2: that we kind of are right. It's Pete Carroll on
Speaker 2: the Raiders with Gino Smith. It's not sexy, it's not fun,
Speaker 2: it's not being talked about really by now media. So
Speaker 2: that's why it just they feel like the perfect under
Speaker 2: the radar team that sneaks in there in that final
Speaker 2: seventh spot. But again, get I get the Patriots love,
Speaker 2: they got the schedule. They obviously have the talent you
Speaker 2: think across the board if their quarterback takes that year
Speaker 2: to jump, but that's the big question, right, So to me,
Speaker 2: I'm playing it safe here, going to betteran quarterback. And
Speaker 2: what I think is gonna be a big deal going
Speaker 2: from Seattle to an indoor eight nine games out of
Speaker 2: the year. It's gonna be a big deal for Gino.
Speaker 1: Well, you can be right, that's a sneaky smart player
Speaker 1: that the Raiders might have made to give themselves a
Speaker 1: little bit of a higher floor with a coach who
Speaker 1: is seventy something years old and might not have that
Speaker 1: many years, so you want to take advantage of what
Speaker 1: he's trying to build there as quickly as you can.
Speaker 1: NFC is interesting because we all agree on two returning
Speaker 1: teams of the seven that can make the playoffs, and
Speaker 1: it's not teams that you would expect. We agree on
Speaker 1: Philadelphia in Green Bay, and we agree on a third
Speaker 1: team that missed the playoffs last year in San Francisco.
Speaker 1: Before we get into anything quick, yes or no? Do
Speaker 1: we all agree San Francisco could end up being the
Speaker 1: number one seed in the NFC? Simon, Yes or no?
Speaker 2: Yes, just because of schedule, Brandon.
Speaker 3: Yes, they're my one super Bowl ticket right now.
Speaker 1: Chad. Yes, they are one of my two super Bowl
Speaker 1: tickets right now. Okay, that leaves four more teams. We
Speaker 1: don't even agree on whether or not last year's number
Speaker 1: one seed will make it. Chad, Chad, I'm getting too
Speaker 1: used to referring to myself in the third person. Simon
Speaker 1: and I agree that Detroit is in I will say
Speaker 1: they were one of my last teams in Brandon. You
Speaker 1: like Detroit to miss, so explain yourself.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just I love to bet on fading. The
Speaker 3: brain drain on teams, and the brain drain coming in
Speaker 3: Detroit is going to be huge. Everyone's gonna be talking
Speaker 3: about it, Ben Johnson, and we're gonna come back to
Speaker 3: him in a bed. I know, but Ben Johnson out
Speaker 3: the door. We haven't seen what this offense is gonna
Speaker 3: look like without his play calling, we haven't seen. Everyone
Speaker 3: loves Dan Campbell's aggressiveness. Okay, are we sure we love
Speaker 3: it when we don't get Ben Johnson's play calling with
Speaker 3: the aggressiveness, We're sure that we love that version of
Speaker 3: his aggression. You know, we've seen coaches over the years
Speaker 3: where that aggression runs out and it suddenly doesn't work anymore.
Speaker 3: We've seen Jared Goff without Ben Johnson, without Sean McVay,
Speaker 3: be a very mediocre to bad quarterback, and we saw
Speaker 3: him in this Lions team not look good until Ben
Speaker 3: Johnson started making the calls. Aaron Glenn on defense really
Speaker 3: surprised me las year. I didn't give them enough credit.
Speaker 3: That defense really overperformed and then and I think everyone
Speaker 3: loves to revision his history and say the Lions had
Speaker 3: the year from hell because they had all the injuries
Speaker 3: at the end of the season. They certainly did, but
Speaker 3: I thought it was a Lion's year for like three
Speaker 3: fourths of the season. I thought it was the Lions
Speaker 3: year that they were the team that, man, everything is perfect,
Speaker 3: They're going to be the Super Bowl team this year.
Speaker 3: And so you get both sides. Both of those count
Speaker 3: I do like for them. DJ Reid I think is
Speaker 3: a really nice addition for them with Terry and Arnold.
Speaker 3: So I think actually Detroit's defense could be better maybe
Speaker 3: than they were last year. They're getting Aden Hutchinson back.
Speaker 3: He was probably the defensive player of the year until
Speaker 3: he got hurt. So it's yeah, it's not a team
Speaker 3: that I'm like super loving to fade because it's a
Speaker 3: very talented roster. But I think the defense can be
Speaker 3: a little better, but the offensive line gets worse. Frank
Speaker 3: Raig now is a really big loss for them. The
Speaker 3: splits with him playing and not playing is a big deal.
Speaker 3: And then you take the play calling away, you make
Speaker 3: Goff a little bit worse, and now I think you
Speaker 3: just have like a round a league average offense and defense,
Speaker 3: maybe even slightly above average on both. But the NFC
Speaker 3: is tough. I could see this team being like a
Speaker 3: nine win team and still missing the playoffs, especially in
Speaker 3: a very tough division. So you know, just a team
Speaker 3: that when you lose Ben Johnson, lose Aaron gly and
Speaker 3: lose Frank rag Now, like that's coaching an offensive line,
Speaker 3: that's my stick, Like that's my thing. So if you're
Speaker 3: going to lose that much drain in those areas, it
Speaker 3: has to be a team I'm out on.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, those are all the reasons why I potentially
Speaker 1: left them out. Ultimately decided that's downgrading a little bit
Speaker 1: too much given how high their ceiling was last year. Simon,
Speaker 1: you're with me, explain for the both of us.
Speaker 2: Detroit, it's still gonna be that Detroit offense, right. I
Speaker 2: do think they'll take a step back. They obviously won't
Speaker 2: be the one seed, but could they still steal this
Speaker 2: division somehow or make the wild court. I think that
Speaker 2: will because they have just so much talent. And to me,
Speaker 2: it's it's what you just talked about. The let's speakin
Speaker 2: in the end. Like their window, we know football's window
Speaker 2: is two to three years usually, and then you kind
Speaker 2: of have to re remake who you are, like you
Speaker 2: have to become a whole new team and build out
Speaker 2: throughout the draft. And they've drafted so well that maybe
Speaker 2: they have another year or two to do it. But
Speaker 2: I'm with you, guys, like I was looking forward to
Speaker 2: betting them on the division last year, looking forward to
Speaker 2: betting them to potentially WINNFC. I didn't do any Super
Speaker 2: Bowl futures. Me and Chat talked about. I just didn't think.
Speaker 2: I thought just something about the fact that it's Detroit
Speaker 2: and it's golf. I was like, there's some something's gonna
Speaker 2: go awry here, and sure enough, pick six later against
Speaker 2: Washington it happened. So it's it's a tough spot with Detroit. Chat.
Speaker 2: I think me and you feel the same way, where
Speaker 2: we know the possibility them falling off the cliff is
Speaker 2: real because football is so dependent on coaching. But man,
Speaker 2: you just when you break it down, it's like the
Speaker 2: talent's there. The question, to the end of the day
Speaker 2: will be is that new offensive line they're building is
Speaker 2: it gonna work? Because they've had some major departures and
Speaker 2: we talk agnaisma about it, but it's such an important
Speaker 2: cog to the NFL machine, that offensive line. So to me,
Speaker 2: that ended U might being the Achilles Seal of this team.
Speaker 2: But to not make the playoffs, Wow, that's that's a
Speaker 2: nice that's a nice plus number. Brandon. Do you remember
Speaker 2: the number was on that the bet Detroit not making
Speaker 2: the playoffs?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 2: No, because I bet you that's what plus two hundred
Speaker 2: you think plus two fifty at least, right?
Speaker 3: Yeah. I haven't seen the number in recent times in
Speaker 3: the debt of July here in the Dungeons in North Dakota.
Speaker 3: But yeah, it's definitely a nice plus number because you know,
Speaker 3: if you're picking the one seed to miss out the
Speaker 3: following season, you're gonna get a number on that. To me.
Speaker 3: I know we talked about like the Super Bowl losers curse,
Speaker 3: who's that team that's going to fall off from last year?
Speaker 3: They didn't make the Super Bowl, they didn't win a
Speaker 3: playoff game. But I think Detroit is that team this year.
Speaker 3: I think they're the team that has the weight of
Speaker 3: what last year was and what this year isn't anymore
Speaker 3: coming back to them. And I think partly it's because
Speaker 3: the division is so strong.
Speaker 1: Well, look, we can talk about the division, because that's
Speaker 1: where we also have some discrepancies. The one thing I'll add, Simon,
Speaker 1: you talked about offensive line, Brandon, you mentioned Frank Ragnow.
Speaker 1: They also lost Kevin Zeitdler, who was one of the
Speaker 1: best guards in football and maybe huge impact on their
Speaker 1: ability to run the ball and convert so frequently on
Speaker 1: fourth down. So I do think that's an I think
Speaker 1: the weight of expectations and Brandon, I think that's a
Speaker 1: great way to frame it. You talk about that Super
Speaker 1: Bowl hangover for the team that lost, they feel the
Speaker 1: same weight, like they feel they should have been there
Speaker 1: to not get there for a second year in a row.
Speaker 1: The San Francisco loss a couple of years ago I
Speaker 1: think was inspiring. The one last year was a little
Speaker 1: bit deflating. The rest of the NSC North is interesting.
Speaker 1: I've got the Bears, Brandon, You've got the Bears in Minnesota. Simon,
Speaker 1: You've only got Detroit. I will say for the Bears, obviously,
Speaker 1: what's that I also have green Bay, right, you have
Speaker 1: green Bay. I have Detroit, Chicago and green Bay. Brandon,
Speaker 1: hash Chicago, Minnesota and green Bay. Simon, you have green
Speaker 1: Bay and Detroit. I say this is an unbiased way
Speaker 1: as possible. Everything the Lions lost for Ben Johnson, the
Speaker 1: Bears are getting. I believe that their offense, they are
Speaker 1: peaked at skill positions. They made their offensive line into
Speaker 1: what I believe can at least be a top five
Speaker 1: or top ten offensive line. The biggest challenge is going
Speaker 1: to be what have they done to improve their pass rush?
Speaker 1: Not as much as you like as a fan, but
Speaker 1: I like what they did offensively enough for them to
Speaker 1: make the playoffs. Brandon, you've explained why you're out on Detroit.
Speaker 1: Explain Minnesota with a touch of a compliment to what
Speaker 1: I said about the Bears.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean with the Bears, really it's the same
Speaker 3: thing as the Lions. Literally it's Ben Johnson, but it's
Speaker 3: the same points. I believe in investing in the lines,
Speaker 3: winning in the trenches, and winning with good coaching. I
Speaker 3: think those are two edges as a better especially in
Speaker 3: the futures market, that a big edge on. And I
Speaker 3: think what the Lions lost, quite literally was what the
Speaker 3: Bears gained here with Ben Johnson and what Caleb Williams
Speaker 3: year two should look like with him, but also investing
Speaker 3: in that offensive line. I'm never gonna not like what
Speaker 3: you did if you go and get Joe Thoney and
Speaker 3: Drew Dolloman and Jonathan Jackson Grady Jarrett on defense, Like
Speaker 3: if you're bringing all the boys in the middle around
Speaker 3: the football, I'm gonna like what you did. So what
Speaker 3: Detroit didn't do that I didn't like is what the
Speaker 3: Bears did do And frankly, it's kind of what the
Speaker 3: Vikings did as well. The Vikings get back Christian darrisaw
Speaker 3: him and Brian O'Neal, I think are one of the
Speaker 3: better tackle combos in the league. On the offensive line,
Speaker 3: Darris only played six and a half games last year,
Speaker 3: but then they rebuilt the interior of the line with
Speaker 3: what basically was a pretty good Colts interior of the
Speaker 3: line in the last couple of years when healthy. They
Speaker 3: also go out and get Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave
Speaker 3: as swings in the defensive line, adding to what was
Speaker 3: already really talented defense. Now this was a defense that
Speaker 3: was really really good. And by my own thing I've
Speaker 3: said just half an hour ago, shouldn't I be weary
Speaker 3: that won't they fall back to the earth? I am
Speaker 3: wary of that. I think Brian floor's defense. We've seen
Speaker 3: that within the season before, even where they kind of
Speaker 3: get found out a little bit. The corners are still
Speaker 3: pretty weak on this team. Just to me, this is
Speaker 3: a high floor formula. We have a great offensive line,
Speaker 3: a ton of weapons on offense, a really good defense
Speaker 3: that may not be number two, but we know Flores
Speaker 3: gets defenses perform at a top ten level year after
Speaker 3: year when he has some talent there. The trenches are good,
Speaker 3: the coaching is good. There's just a lot to believe in.
Speaker 3: And I haven't said the one name that you maybe
Speaker 3: don't believe in, which is JJ McCarthy. We don't know
Speaker 3: about JJ McCarthy, but we didn't know about Sam Donald
Speaker 3: last year either, And frankly, we had all the reasons
Speaker 3: to not believe in Sam Donald. Why can't JJ McCarthy
Speaker 3: be as good as Sam Donald? Why can't he be
Speaker 3: as good as what Jared Goff was with a good
Speaker 3: play caller. Why can't JJ McCarthy be better than Sam Darnald.
Speaker 3: I don't know. With this blocking and I think two,
Speaker 3: I'm excited as a Vikings fan, and I will say
Speaker 3: normally that would make me bet against Minnesota, not for them.
Speaker 3: So don't take that with too much a grain of salt,
Speaker 3: but I'm excited to see what can this offensive do
Speaker 3: with a quarterback that can move a little bit. That's
Speaker 3: one thing that koc has not had is a guy
Speaker 3: that can move out of the pocket create a little
Speaker 3: bit with his legs. I think McCarthy gives them a
Speaker 3: new dimension to the offense they haven't had with the weapons,
Speaker 3: with the run game that they found last season, with
Speaker 3: the line, I think there's there are a lot of
Speaker 3: outs for Minnesota to still be good. I know that
Speaker 3: it all says fourteen and three expected wins like eleven wins.
Speaker 3: They were nine to one in all the one score games.
Speaker 3: We know all the reasons that they should be worse
Speaker 3: this year. This is a team that I traditionally would
Speaker 3: choose to be out on. I'm kind of purposefully swerving
Speaker 3: and saying, Okay, I think they can be worse than
Speaker 3: that record. They were not that good last year, but
Speaker 3: I think they could be a better team this year
Speaker 3: and still have a a floor in a structure that
Speaker 3: puts them in the mixing the playoffs.
Speaker 1: All right, Simon, anti Bears, anti Vikings, explain yourself.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Vikings one's pretty easy. It just you have
Speaker 2: to pick some teams that made it last year to
Speaker 2: miss everything he just highlighted, is it's all red flags.
Speaker 2: Like me and you were so down on them coming
Speaker 2: to the season. It was pretty simple. We just didn't
Speaker 2: believe Sam Darnold, and he outperformed anybody's watle it's expectations
Speaker 2: in all those fourth quarters, any game that was tight,
Speaker 2: the other team, Wilton and he always stepped up and
Speaker 2: eventually it ran out like we saw in that Detroit
Speaker 2: then the Rams game, it just he had a peak
Speaker 2: and then eventually it just came crashing down. So it's
Speaker 2: all there, Like that defense obviously overperformed because they were
Speaker 2: so well coached in Minnesota. But it's another thing. It's
Speaker 2: the unknown quarterback. So yeah, they could potentially be a
Speaker 2: team to make it. But betting odds, going off past
Speaker 2: history and one score wins, we see it fluctuates and
Speaker 2: it is depending on coaching. Like coaching can be so good,
Speaker 2: you can rise above it. We've seen Pittsburgh door for years,
Speaker 2: but it's unlikely just in your division, it's so brutally tough,
Speaker 2: Like all these teams are so talented, so well coached
Speaker 2: and that's where it's tough. With Chicago, Chad. You have
Speaker 2: an offensive coordinator coming in doing his first coaching job
Speaker 2: in the NFL. Year one. We've seen a timetime again.
Speaker 2: It could be beautiful for five six weeks and then
Speaker 2: just crash and burn. One little thing goes wrong, he
Speaker 2: loses the locker room, whatever it may be, it could
Speaker 2: be really bad. We don't know what type of coaching
Speaker 2: style he has yet. We know he's a psycho like
Speaker 2: we've seen him talk and he's all in, I love it.
Speaker 2: Like he's an exact type of coach you want perfectionists,
Speaker 2: makes hi run the same play ten times until they
Speaker 2: run the exact way he wants it. That's what you
Speaker 2: need in the NFL. You need someone like that to
Speaker 2: that pays dunch and every little detail so kind of work.
Speaker 2: If they win, hell yeah. But if it goes bad,
Speaker 2: we've seen in Chicago it goes really bad because it's
Speaker 2: just so much weight on that team in that city
Speaker 2: and it's a first year head coach. So with me
Speaker 2: and them, it's it was really tough because I took
Speaker 2: the Detroit over them. That was like I was in
Speaker 2: between Chicago Detroit because I have green Bay in the
Speaker 2: winning the division, you know, if I'm betting wise, So
Speaker 2: that's where he just came down to. It was just tough.
Speaker 2: Am I really going to take Chicago year one? To me? I?
Speaker 2: Me and you talk about a little bit, chat. I
Speaker 2: just think this is another growing year for Caleb Williams.
Speaker 2: I would be so happy if they made it right,
Speaker 2: they string together a couple of those one score wins, right,
Speaker 2: huge jump because the offensive line, the coaching staff, no
Speaker 2: one to be shocked Chicago making It's just unlikely because
Speaker 2: it's just such a tough division.
Speaker 1: We both have, Simon, You and I both have Dallas In.
Speaker 1: Uh none of us have the commanders in.
Speaker 2: Okay.
Speaker 1: It's interesting, right, Yeah, This just feels like a natural
Speaker 1: regression regression for defenses, figuring out how to stop Jadan Daniels,
Speaker 1: the regression on fourth down conversions, the way he plays.
Speaker 1: Who knows the injury possibilities are just higher that defense.
Speaker 1: Since Brandon pointed out it is inconsistent year to year.
Speaker 1: Last year they were better than expected. Did they do
Speaker 1: anything to get that much better during the offseason? Simon,
Speaker 1: you and I both like Dallas In. I like it
Speaker 1: more because their defense is going to be healthier and
Speaker 1: they have Dac back. Can you give a little bit
Speaker 1: of insight because I want to do this one quickly
Speaker 1: because we got a lot still to get through, but
Speaker 1: a little bit of insight on Dallas.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I'll save all of for when we do
Speaker 2: divisional talks with Dallas, because you know how I feel
Speaker 2: about them. But it really is that simple, as Chad
Speaker 2: said it, It's just a team that's coming off a
Speaker 2: down year. They're going to have their quarterback back, have
Speaker 2: a number two receiver in pickings. That's a big upgrade.
Speaker 2: I think the offense line will be better because they
Speaker 2: were so young last year. They should have a running game.
Speaker 2: Just that defense, like that defense is a ton of talent.
Speaker 2: They just simply could not stop the run. And they
Speaker 2: feel like they've addressed that here in this offseason. So
Speaker 2: for me, that was easy one. With Washington, I don't
Speaker 2: know if we're all in agreement, but it's kind of
Speaker 2: what Chad said, right, It's the aggression of Jade and
Speaker 2: Daniels and just that defense, Like they have not improved
Speaker 2: that defense, it's in any way, and they just overachieved
Speaker 2: in so many ways. And we talked about that Chicago game.
Speaker 2: Felt could flipped their season. They felt like they could
Speaker 2: have gone either way. Right, they lose that game, Chicago,
Speaker 2: and it goes the other way, they win it, they
Speaker 2: go on the up and up. Chicago's got the other way, right,
Speaker 2: chicaganna win another game for like five six weeks after
Speaker 2: that loss to Washington. So, yeah, that's Washington. You're playing
Speaker 2: with house money. Like those fans, they don't care what
Speaker 2: we're saying right now. They believe in Jad and Dana's
Speaker 2: They think they have the greatest quarterback ever. And we
Speaker 2: all agree it's highly talented. But eighty percent of fourth down,
Speaker 2: it's just it's not it's disagression. It's impossible. Like he
Speaker 2: maybe is neo he's gonna break the matrix. But we've
Speaker 2: seen the NFL, these guys getting paid millions and millions
Speaker 2: of dollars. They will figure it out. They always do.
Speaker 2: Like doesn't matter how great you are, they will find
Speaker 2: your weakness and they will attack it after six months
Speaker 2: of grinding tape in the offseason. So yeah, Brandon, where
Speaker 2: we at with Washington in the same boat as me
Speaker 2: and Chad. I can't believe all three of us have
Speaker 2: them out.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I very similar. I think the fourth down conversion
Speaker 3: rate is just crazy outlier and has to come down.
Speaker 3: I think two this is this year's Houston. This is
Speaker 3: the hype team with the young quarterback that everyone's excited about.
Speaker 3: And I think they got a little bit of their
Speaker 3: own excitement too. We see a team each year that's like,
Speaker 3: you know what, we're one or two pieces away, So
Speaker 3: what do they do rather than going out and building
Speaker 3: the roster the right way. Washington wasn't supposed to be
Speaker 3: this good last year. They're supposed to be slowly building up,
Speaker 3: and they're like, oh no, we're gonna go get Deebo,
Speaker 3: who hasn't been good for a couple of years anyways.
Speaker 3: And we're gonna get Laromie Tunsel, who's gonna fix our
Speaker 3: whole offensive line. But oh wait, there's still four other
Speaker 3: guys on the line, and their line get really found
Speaker 3: out as the season went on last year too. So
Speaker 3: I think we see those teams that make the big
Speaker 3: splash moves and everyone's excited, we already had a good team,
Speaker 3: now we had these two stars onto the team. They
Speaker 3: I think are the team that finished nine to one
Speaker 3: in games under a touchdown, including four straight to make
Speaker 3: the playoffs, then Tampa in the playoffs, and then frankly
Speaker 3: right place, right time to take advantage of the Detroit
Speaker 3: defense that just had nobody left. In the NBA, we
Speaker 3: see teams make the conference finals and then get high
Speaker 3: on their own juice and be like, oh, here we are.
Speaker 3: You know, the Atlanta Hawks did it. The Portland Trail
Speaker 3: Blazers did it. We see year after year and they're like, Okay,
Speaker 3: we're all on this core now, and it turns out
Speaker 3: that was the best it got with that group. You
Speaker 3: gotta still kind of pivot and go somewhere. Growth isn't linear,
Speaker 3: So I think Washington, I'm not out on Jaden. I
Speaker 3: just need the rest of the team to come with it.
Speaker 3: I think the rest of the team's going to take
Speaker 3: some work. Dallas, I'm less excited. But if you like Dallas,
Speaker 3: I think Parsons Defensive Player of the Year is a
Speaker 3: good way to invest in Dallas.
Speaker 1: I like that growth isn't linear, all right. We all
Speaker 1: like Philadelphia, Green Bay, San Francisco. We all have very
Speaker 1: different choices for winners of the NFC South. I like Atlanta,
Speaker 1: Simon likes Tampa Bay, Brandon Lakes Carolina. Let's think about
Speaker 1: that as we go into sort of figuring out what
Speaker 1: our final equation looks like. Brandon and Simon, you guys
Speaker 1: agree that your final team in the playoffs is the
Speaker 1: Los Angeles Rams. I'll let you start, Brandon. You have
Speaker 1: the Rams going in, So your final seven I believe
Speaker 1: would be Rams, Bears, Bikings, Eagles, Green Bay, San Francisco,
Speaker 1: and Carolina.
Speaker 3: Yes, why the Rams? Yeah? I think just with the Rams.
Speaker 3: They had a ton of injuries last year and still
Speaker 3: made the playoffs. Anyway, Now they get DeVonta Adams and
Speaker 3: replacement for Coup Devanta Adams plus Puka, I think can
Speaker 3: be just a really really good receiving corps. The offensive
Speaker 3: line also had a ton of injuries last year. Aleric
Speaker 3: Jackson and left tackle missed the first two games. Steve
Speaker 3: Avlo was hurt a lot of the season. Rob Havinstan
Speaker 3: was hurt. I think this year you get a better line.
Speaker 3: Stafford historically has very much reflected the play of his line,
Speaker 3: and frankly so is Sean mcvay's offense. We think of
Speaker 3: Sean McVay as this like crazy attacking offense. His offense
Speaker 3: goes where the run game goes and when the line
Speaker 3: is better, the run game with Karen Ronan is gonna
Speaker 3: be better. So I think this offense when healthy, which
Speaker 3: we can't just assume they're gonna be healthy. They're not
Speaker 3: going to be They're gonna miss some games when you
Speaker 3: have Devant Dams and Puka and Stafford, they're gonna miss
Speaker 3: a little bit of time. But when healthy, they're gonna
Speaker 3: be as good as anyone. We saw that Bills game
Speaker 3: last year right where they just looked, you know, they
Speaker 3: could put up any points, any score they needed to
Speaker 3: the defense. I don't love it, but I think it's
Speaker 3: young and improving, heading in the right direction. Matt Stafford
Speaker 3: has been my first MVP bet for the season, not
Speaker 3: because I'm all in on of the Rams, far from it.
Speaker 3: I'm not really believing the team, but if they hit
Speaker 3: what they could be, I think this offense, if they're
Speaker 3: healthy all year, it could be like a thirteen win team.
Speaker 3: And Stafford is a fifty to one MVP ticket is
Speaker 3: a ticket worth investing in for once. No brain drain
Speaker 3: In Los Angeles, Sean McVay finally didn't lose everybody that
Speaker 3: he's ever talked or out of copy with before, so
Speaker 3: we just kind of get to run back a team
Speaker 3: that was pretty good already. So a lot of options.
Speaker 3: I like the other teams in that division as well,
Speaker 3: but for now I've got the Rams in Simon.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just love this Rams team. I like them
Speaker 2: more than forty nine ers. I know you guys are
Speaker 2: both bigger on the forty nine ers right now, and
Speaker 2: I agree for season long, that's fair because we've just
Speaker 2: seen this Rams team every year. They feel like they
Speaker 2: start slow and then they play catch up second half.
Speaker 2: So to me, it's it's understainable why people would be
Speaker 2: high in the forty nine ers. But when you break
Speaker 2: down the Rams, I just think across the board they
Speaker 2: have so much talent and adding Adams to this team
Speaker 2: is just insane, Like I can't believe that got him
Speaker 2: with Puka, that's just such a nice combo. And you
Speaker 2: know their defensive line. I think they're just severely underrated.
Speaker 2: Like they're a young, hungry group that we've seen time
Speaker 2: time again. If you coach it right, they grew and
Speaker 2: they get better. It's a big deal. Last year their
Speaker 2: final five to six games, that d Lion got so
Speaker 2: much better for that Rams team, they really improved. I
Speaker 2: feel like that Bill's game is a turning point for them.
Speaker 2: They really figured some stuff out after that. Different combinations,
Speaker 2: and I just love the way they played heading especially
Speaker 2: in the playoffs, like that Vikings game, that de line
Speaker 2: dominated against the Eagles. They're really really talented and dominant.
Speaker 2: So yeah, that Rams team, if I'm going to make
Speaker 2: one futures bet in NFC, wouldn't be the Eagles. It
Speaker 2: would still be this Rams team to win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2: I just think they have the best value. Been there,
Speaker 2: done that, right, head coach, quarterback, we talk all the time.
Speaker 2: That's such a big deal in football, like knowing you've
Speaker 2: already climbed that mountain you won't get phase and those
Speaker 2: tough moments in the playoffs. That's a big deal to me.
Speaker 2: So yeah, Shanahan, I love them. But man, we've had
Speaker 2: some brutal, brutal losses on futures on him with that
Speaker 2: f forty nine are seeing to the Super Bowl. So yeah,
Speaker 2: just confidence level. I'm all in on this Rams team
Speaker 2: this upcoming season.
Speaker 1: I signon, give me your final seven for the NFC.
Speaker 2: So I went Dallas Eagles out of the East. Believe
Speaker 2: I Bucks, South, Green Bay, Detroit for the North and
Speaker 2: who do I have West? I believe I have the
Speaker 2: forty nine ers and just the Rams. So yeah, the
Speaker 2: loan division gotta go to the South right with the Bucks.
Speaker 2: It's just that that one's such a toss up. I
Speaker 2: know a lot of pros just like Brandon here, they
Speaker 2: like Panthers, mean and Chad, we drank that kool aid.
Speaker 2: I would love for that to work out, But give
Speaker 2: it out on this show. I'm gonna go. I'm gonna
Speaker 2: play it safe in case people are betting stuff for
Speaker 2: giving out here and just go Bucks. It's just I
Speaker 2: know they lost, you know, argument in the best office
Speaker 2: corodinators in football. But yeah, just we can't stop our
Speaker 2: Baker love. We just love Baker on this show.
Speaker 1: All right. I am on Philadelphia, Green Bay, San Francisco, Detroit, Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta. Brandon,
Speaker 1: one more reminder, Philadelphia, Green Bay, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Chicago,
Speaker 1: Minnesota and the Rams love you wild. I mean, that's
Speaker 1: what we're given. Everybody's got an option for something with
Speaker 1: this one. Brandon Anderson from the Dungeons of North Dakota,
Speaker 1: thanks for coming on the podcast and creating this game
Speaker 1: that we could play, called Who Will Make the Playoffs
Speaker 1: in the NFL. The Favorites will return with our next
Speaker 1: episode Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page with special
Speaker 1: guest Rich Reebar talking top ten quarterbacks. Also check it
Speaker 1: out with clips and highlights at Real Chad Milman on YouTube.
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