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Speaker 1: Welcome to the favorites of the podcast part of the

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Speaker 1: Volume podcast Network. I'm Chad Millman of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: Today we officially kick off our twenty twenty five NFL

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Speaker 1: season preview episodes. Training camps open at the end of

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Speaker 1: next week. We've made it through the long, hard, cold

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Speaker 1: winter of no football. Our division by division betting breakdowns

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Speaker 1: will begin at the end of this month. But before

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Speaker 1: we get to that, Simon and I, we'll do our

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Speaker 1: table Setter episodes to frame what we think when it

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Speaker 1: comes to all things betting in the NFL. Today, we're

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Speaker 1: going to start with the big picture playoff prognostication. Before

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Speaker 1: I dive into the topic, let me bring it my

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Speaker 1: co host, my companion, Michael Padre, my BFF professional better

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Speaker 1: sim In Hunter Ella, sim In.

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Speaker 2: Chad, how are we doing?

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Speaker 1: I guess we're ready. I guess it's time. I guess

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Speaker 1: all the planning, all the research, all the conversation, all

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Speaker 1: the debate, it's time to quite literally put some of

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Speaker 1: that into action. Today we're going to play a little

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Speaker 1: game with the help of our Action Network colleague Brandon Anderson.

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Speaker 1: He actually did this a few weeks ago on the

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Speaker 1: Action Pod with former colleague Anthony Debundo, now of The Ringer,

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Speaker 1: and we loved the concept. We're going to predict this

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Speaker 1: year's fourteen playoff teams, but you and I do every year.

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Speaker 1: But with Brandon, we're incorporating a little bit of a twist. Brandon,

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Speaker 1: you are broadcasting from your dungeon bunker, visiting your family

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Speaker 1: in North Dakota, where apparently they no longer we have electricity.

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Speaker 1: The host state has gone fully off the grid. So

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Speaker 1: you know, people who are watching, understand the circumstances for you,

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Speaker 1: but explain what we're doing today.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, the great news is the internet

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Speaker 3: speed is slowly getting better here in North Dakota. My

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Speaker 3: family's been at ten MVPs for years. We're up to

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Speaker 3: fifteen now. But they got flags in the backyard. They're

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Speaker 3: finally putting in like the optic cable. So I think

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Speaker 3: maybe a year from now, next time I'm here, we'll

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Speaker 3: actually have real internet and have the good setup, but

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Speaker 3: here from the dungeon. Either way, concept is pretty easy.

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Speaker 3: Since we moved to fourteen playoff teams. Year by year,

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Speaker 3: about eight of the fourteen teams return the next season,

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Speaker 3: about six drop out, so that's almost half that's one

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Speaker 3: away from half. Obviously over forty percent, so more turnover

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Speaker 3: than we expect. We know how the NFL is the

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Speaker 3: League of parody. So the exercise Dubundo and I did was, Okay,

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Speaker 3: we have to choose six teams to drop out and

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Speaker 3: six new ones to come in. You gotta follow the rules.

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Speaker 3: Like you if you drop out a division leader and

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Speaker 3: you have known from that division, you've got to have

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Speaker 3: someone in, et cetera. So today we're doing a little

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Speaker 3: bit differently. We didn't tell you guys the twist. We

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Speaker 3: just picked our playoff teams and we're gonna kind of

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Speaker 3: see where do we overlap. What do we end up with.

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Speaker 3: We end up with three teams that all three of

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Speaker 3: us have in in the NFC, three in the AFC,

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Speaker 3: So kind of quickly YadA YadA those and then I

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Speaker 3: think talk through the teams that we differ on and

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Speaker 3: kind of see where we overlap.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, I think that we ended up naturally sort

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Speaker 1: of finding a way to get to that at six

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Speaker 1: of fourteen average, just by doing it blindly, not even

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Speaker 1: knowing that this was the concept. So let's start with

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Speaker 1: the AFC. The playoff picture, I think is a lot clearer.

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Speaker 1: All of us have the Chiefs, the Ravens, and the Bills. Obvious,

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Speaker 1: none of us agree on the final four team, so

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Speaker 1: let's dive in here. One obvious AFC team that missed

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Speaker 1: last season with a notable caveat was Cincinnati with Joe

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Speaker 1: Burrow coming off of the injury the year before and

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Speaker 1: then the team really struggling to start the year. Brandon,

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Speaker 1: you and I both have Cincinnati getting to the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: I'll be honest. I had Cincinnati winning the division. So

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Speaker 1: when I went through this, I had the Ravens as

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Speaker 1: the wildcard team from that division. Simon, you at Cincinnati

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Speaker 1: to miss explain yourself.

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Speaker 2: Uh, they're bad, JAD. It's pretty simp when you break

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Speaker 2: it down. They are a really bad run team organization,

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Speaker 2: and they got lucky right they stumbled into Joe Brow

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Speaker 2: with the number one pick and they're very fortunate. So

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Speaker 2: every year they will have a chance to make this playoffs.

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Speaker 2: But you can get them on a plus number to

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Speaker 2: miss the playoffs. This is a bad team or really

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Speaker 2: bad defense that could get potentially get worse before they've

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Speaker 2: ended the season. Like they just keep doing things wrong

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Speaker 2: and it's catching up to them. Where oh great, we

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Speaker 2: resigned Chase and Higgins our stead of receivers with Joe Burrow.

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Speaker 2: That's not their issues. Their issues that offensive line in

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Speaker 2: the defense, two things they have not really attacked this offseason.

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Speaker 2: So to me, you know, they got lucky to even

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Speaker 2: be close to making the playoffs last season when they

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Speaker 2: played so poorly against winning teams and they had a

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Speaker 2: pretty easy schedule, right, they caught a bad Browns team

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Speaker 2: that had backup in they caught a bad Pittsburgh team

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Speaker 2: when Pittsburgh was kind of on the downslope toward the

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Speaker 2: end of the season. So to me, it's gonna be

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Speaker 2: a lot tougher in that division. And the Ravens I

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Speaker 2: just put so far above them. I don't think it's close,

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Speaker 2: so that they's just got a team that's gonna be

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Speaker 2: overrated because it is Joe Burrow, who we all know,

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Speaker 2: top ten, top six, top five quarterbacks. So to me,

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Speaker 2: it makes sense why you guys would pick them. I'm

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Speaker 2: just the other way. I hate the way it's coming

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Speaker 2: into the season, even the drama with their first round pick,

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Speaker 2: all of it, and Hendrix's it's so bad to me,

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Speaker 2: and their defense to me, might be by them five

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Speaker 2: in the league.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Look, the we're going to do a training camp Questions episode,

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Speaker 1: and definitely one of the questions that I'm thinking about

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Speaker 1: is can the Bengals stop bangling because of what they're

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Speaker 1: doing with Trey Henderson, because of what they're doing with

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Speaker 1: Shamar Stewart at their first round pick, who they're you know,

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Speaker 1: trying to set precedent setting contracts with for first round picks. Brandon,

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Speaker 1: what is your reasoning for the Bengals being in the playoffs?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think actually, for me, the reasoning is just

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Speaker 3: that the offense is so good with Burrow, with Tea

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Speaker 3: and Chase, especially last year when those receivers were both

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Speaker 3: on the field and I know it's not given we

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Speaker 3: got the contract settled now, when those two and burw

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Speaker 3: were on the field, they were an unstoppable offense last season,

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Speaker 3: like Jamar Chase is breaking records in some games and

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Speaker 3: doing just crazy stuff. Tea was really good. The being

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Speaker 3: that good historically puts you in the playoff picture. Like

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Speaker 3: as long as you just have Burrow, Tea and Chase healthy,

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Speaker 3: you're in the playoff picture. They have won nine games

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Speaker 3: or more in four straight seasons, so all they really

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Speaker 3: need to do is stay mostly healthy and please, for

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Speaker 3: the love of God, not start on three every single season.

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Speaker 3: Can we just have a normal September and not dig

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Speaker 3: a hole immediately? I don't know, So I don't know

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Speaker 3: if we can bet on them to make the playoffs.

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Speaker 3: I think you're right time to point out that the

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Speaker 3: plus number has been a good bet to make at

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Speaker 3: the start of the year because they usually dig themselves

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Speaker 3: a hole, and if anything, you can just bet plus

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Speaker 3: on the other side and just be done. I got

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Speaker 3: some money either way. Go ahead, Bengals, do your thing.

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Speaker 3: I need to worry about it anymore. To me, Burrow belongs. Look,

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Speaker 3: we named off Chiefs Bill's Ravens. For most people, that

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Speaker 3: would be your top three quarterbacks in the NFL. For me,

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Speaker 3: Joe Burrow is in that group with those three, not

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Speaker 3: necessarily as the fourth option. If you have a star

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Speaker 3: quarterback that's that good, you're in the playof And in

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Speaker 3: the AFC, I have a lot more teams that I'm

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Speaker 3: pretty comfortable leaving out of the mix in the NFC.

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Speaker 3: I would not say put them in as easily, but

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Speaker 3: I kind of needed teams frankly in the AFC, so

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Speaker 3: I'm happy to put the Bengals as an option.

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Speaker 1: Here. By the way, a little preview for a future

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Speaker 1: episode that we're doing later this week are Top ten Quarterbacks,

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Speaker 1: which a lot of people talking about quarterbacks this week

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Speaker 1: and their top ten lists, and Simon and I do

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Speaker 1: it every year, but we also incorporate a lot about

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks that we'd want to be betting on or that

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Speaker 1: we'd be afraid to be betting against. At the end

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Speaker 1: of the game, you say Joe Burrow would be, you know,

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Speaker 1: top four, Brandon, I don't disagree. One of us on

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Speaker 1: this podcast right now had Joe Burrow outside his top five.

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Speaker 1: That's how down he is on Joe Burrow. The thing

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Speaker 1: about the Bengals, and I agree with you like I

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Speaker 1: am all in on Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow's biggest issues

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Speaker 1: Sometimes in this offensive line is terrible, but the issue

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Speaker 1: is Joe Burrow, and Joe Burrow likes to play hero ball.

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Speaker 1: He will hold the ball too long with a bad

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Speaker 1: offensive line and continue to try to make plays which

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Speaker 1: puts himself in trouble physically, and also make sure that

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Speaker 1: he gets a lot more sacks than any other quarterback,

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Speaker 1: which is a constant problem. So it can't all be

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Speaker 1: on the offensive line, it can't all be on the defense.

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Speaker 1: And as good as Joe Burrow is, he has made

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Speaker 1: catastrophic mistakes in inopportune moments, either by taking sacks or

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Speaker 1: throwing bad balls when he's under pressure. So I understand

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Speaker 1: Simon's position. I'm just choosing to believe that they have

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Speaker 1: to get it right and that this will be the year,

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Speaker 1: and that two teams will come out of the AFC North,

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Speaker 1: and I don't think it's going to be all right.

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Speaker 1: And I do think it's going to be the Bengals

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Speaker 1: and the Ravens. The Cincinnati Bengals came roaring back next one. Simon,

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Speaker 1: you and I both have the Texans back in the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: Brandon does not. I know why I believe it. Tell

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Speaker 1: me why you believe it?

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Speaker 2: Just the defense. Like to me, they're so talented with

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Speaker 2: the coaching. It's in that division that there's they're the

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Speaker 2: only team with something legit great. All the other teams

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Speaker 2: have questions, right, I have so many questions about Jacksonville.

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Speaker 2: I mean, hell, we'll get into Houston here. We have

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Speaker 2: questions about the offensive line like that. That's what we're

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Speaker 2: freaked out about it. Is CJ gonna take another step

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Speaker 2: because last year we all agree he just didn't play

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Speaker 2: up to the level we were expecting after his rookie season.

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Speaker 2: So if they're in any other division, chat, I probably

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Speaker 2: would be more down on them because they're in that division.

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Speaker 2: Last year, they shouldn't have won it, and they just

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Speaker 2: all these other teams fall apart, and they just kept

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Speaker 2: turning it out because they have such good coaching, such

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Speaker 2: good defense. It just keeps them above water. So to me,

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Speaker 2: I'm with you. I was trying to force in the Titans.

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Speaker 2: You know how much I love the Titans is up

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Speaker 2: coming here, But I'm just trying to be realistic here.

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Speaker 2: And I know people put a hard earn money on

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Speaker 2: this bet. So to me, if I'm going to go

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Speaker 2: with a side, I got to go with Houston making

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Speaker 2: of that division, you know.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think in the end, I was really impressed

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Speaker 1: with CJ. Stroud and how he played in the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: even with a terrible offensive line. And if they can

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Speaker 1: recognize how to improve that offensive line just a little

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Speaker 1: bit and he can get a little bit better at

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Speaker 1: getting rid of the ball quickly and improve his QB

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Speaker 1: pressure rate in which sometimes he was just taking sacks

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Speaker 1: I think because he was trying to make a play

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Speaker 1: and it was scrambling and in vulnerable positions so soon

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Speaker 1: after the ball was snapped. They are legitimately just the

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Speaker 1: more talented team. He's a more talented quarterback than anyone

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Speaker 1: else in the division. Their defense is really fantastic. I

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Speaker 1: think they've got the moors ablished coach than any other

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Speaker 1: team in the division. So it was a toss up

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Speaker 1: between Texans and the team that Brandon liked. Brandon, go

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Speaker 1: ahead and tell us who you think will make it

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Speaker 1: instead of the Texans.

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Speaker 3: So for me, this really is a bet against the Texans.

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Speaker 3: Like I just I found last year's team hard to inspire.

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Speaker 3: They finished with a zero point differential on the season.

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Speaker 3: The defense was great, no doubt. On paper, the Texans

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Speaker 3: defense is the best unit in the division. It's a

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Speaker 3: terrible division. Like Simon said, if we had other options here,

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Speaker 3: it'd be a lot easier. I'm not excited or truly

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Speaker 3: about the option out to give you, but I'm following

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Speaker 3: the rules. I can't just knock the whole division out.

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Speaker 3: I don't believe in the Texans. I'm not there yet.

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Speaker 2: On the Titans.

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Speaker 3: I think they'll be better. I like the reasons you

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Speaker 3: like them, Simon, just I'm not ready to go better

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Speaker 3: enough to win the division. I am going to reluctantly

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Speaker 3: take the Jacksonville Jaguars. And part of the case here

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Speaker 3: is again looking at defense, Simon, the Texans, I thought,

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Speaker 3: maybe we're a top three defense last year on paper,

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Speaker 3: could be the number one defense this year. Defense is

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Speaker 3: really unpredictable and not sticky season. This season, I can

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Speaker 3: predict pretty consistently who the top offenses are, Like, we

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Speaker 3: can do the top offenses pod and it's gonna be

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Speaker 3: name the quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen,

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Speaker 3: Joe Burr like elite quarterbacks or elite year to year

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Speaker 3: and have elite offenses. Defense is a lot more Malley

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Speaker 3: about changes a lot more so. I agree the Bengals

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Speaker 3: defense was a bottom five defense last year, but historically

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Speaker 3: there's a decent chance that they go from like twenty

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Speaker 3: eighth to twenty second, and just that amount of difference,

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Speaker 3: even just accidentally getting a little better matters when the

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Speaker 3: offense is that good. With Houston, it's the other way

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Speaker 3: if you fall from second or third to eighth and

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Speaker 3: you're still a pretty good defense. Well, if the offense

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Speaker 3: didn't improve a bunch, that's a pretty big drop off.

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Speaker 3: And so to me, I'm gonna like default to offense

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Speaker 3: feeling better. So I have the the Texans falling down,

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with the Jacksonville Jaguars. You hear the

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Speaker 3: excitement in my voice right that the pick here is

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Speaker 3: Liam Cohen. And I hope that Liam Cohen can do

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Speaker 3: with Trevor Lawrence what he's done at pass stops. I

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Speaker 3: think especially Brian Thomas looks like the next just stud receiver.

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Speaker 3: And now I don't even know what he's going to

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Speaker 3: be yet, But whatever Travis Hunter is, maybe it's a

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Speaker 3: little boost at receiver, maybe it's a little boost on defense.

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Speaker 3: The area of where he can help them, I'm not

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Speaker 3: sure yet, but I do believe in his talent what

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Speaker 3: he can do there, and I like the coaching changes

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Speaker 3: that they made. I think there's a lot of low

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Speaker 3: hanging fruit from the team. I can see a world

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Speaker 3: where with Liam Cohen, with these receivers, could Trevor Lawrence

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Speaker 3: be the best quarterback in this division. I think that's

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Speaker 3: a very possible world out there. The talent is there.

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Speaker 3: It's not gonna be cam Ward yet, It's not gonna

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Speaker 3: be whatever Indianapolis has, Like, I never consider them because

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Speaker 3: I can't even get on board with who their quarterback is.

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Speaker 3: Could it be Trevor Lawrence? Could it be nine and

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Speaker 3: eight or ten and seven? That's probably enough in this division.

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Speaker 3: Houston's offensive line I think got worse even than it

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Speaker 3: was last year with Laramy Tunsel gone. They might be

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Speaker 3: the worst offensive line in the league. And that's another

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Speaker 3: more predictable thing. Usually I'm kind of just taking the unpredictable.

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Speaker 3: With Jacksonville, I don't really know what I'm getting, but

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Speaker 3: there's plenty of talent there. There's a lot of talent

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Speaker 3: on defense, even if it hasn't been good yet. Maybe

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Speaker 3: a new coordinator, maybe some new plans can get things

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Speaker 3: going there. Just give Jacksonville a chance because I got

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Speaker 3: to pick somebody in the division. That's the case.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it really comes down to which quarterback

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Speaker 1: do you believe in? Right and CJ. Stroud now two

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Speaker 1: years in a row, playoff victories in each year, division

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Speaker 1: titles in each year, even with a dreadful offensive line.

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Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence, third coach, in five years, really only one

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Speaker 1: good season, even on the field when he's been healthy,

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Speaker 1: consistently missing touch passes in the red zone, consistently being inaccurate,

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Speaker 1: not making the big plays. I am not willing to

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Speaker 1: bet on his unpredictability versus c J. Stroud's upside to

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Speaker 1: me and Simon, you're with me, Simon and I are together.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And it also feels like we're all gonna look

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Speaker 2: at the ind of the here and be like Daniel

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Speaker 2: Jones the Colts, they won this division. We should have known.

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Speaker 2: So that's I'm with Brandon. This feels like a really

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Speaker 2: stupid division. So I get why he's going upside. I

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Speaker 2: just I'm playing it safe. As we all are here

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Speaker 2: in the AFC. It just feels like we're in an

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Speaker 2: era where it's very top heavy in both divisions, where

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Speaker 2: the best are truly the best, and then there's the

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Speaker 2: rest that are just trying to make into that little group.

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Speaker 2: So the Texans, I'm with you. There's a lot of questions,

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Speaker 2: but man, is this division just gross?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? That was sort of It came down to Houston

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Speaker 1: and Jacksonville for me, and it was a flip of

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Speaker 1: a coin. Last year's Wild Cards, Chargers, Broncos, Steelers. Brandon

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Speaker 1: and I have the Chargers back in Denver and Pittsburgh out.

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Speaker 1: Simon has the opposite Denver and Pittsburgh in Chargers out. Uh, Simon,

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Speaker 1: I want you to go first, explain why you like

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Speaker 1: Denver and why you like Pittsburgh and why you don't

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Speaker 1: like the Chargers.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, really really boring. Once again, just went back to

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Speaker 2: it where it's the coaching. I feel like that makes

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Speaker 2: such a big difference. And we saw last year where

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Speaker 2: you know, Pittsburgh and Denver pretty shocking to see them

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Speaker 2: make runs where Pittsburgh did it with Justin Fields and

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Speaker 2: Russell Wilson, Like that's pretty incredible. And the fact that

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Speaker 2: you know it's a team that just feels like this

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Speaker 2: is their run, right all the they have all these guys,

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Speaker 2: all these veteran players that kind of know this is it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, obviously what's going on with TJ. Watt's a

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Speaker 2: big difference here. Like if we're doing this later and

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Speaker 2: I knew he was already gone and traded, probably would

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Speaker 2: be a difference maker because he is that and to

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Speaker 2: that defense. Me and Chat I talk all the time

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Speaker 2: about the splits when he plays for them when he

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Speaker 2: doesn't play for them. But just looking at this team

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Speaker 2: on paper, I just I just trust the coach like

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Speaker 2: he just always finds to make it work. And that's

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Speaker 2: such a big deal in AFC. And then same with Denver.

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Speaker 2: It's like Denver another team that might have a top

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Speaker 2: five defense, top three offensive line. Bon Knicks, that might

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Speaker 2: have been the peak what we saw last season. Like

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Speaker 2: he's old as shit, I get it, but that peak

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Speaker 2: was pretty good, Like he kept improving. That's what you

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Speaker 2: want to see with these rookies. The NFL season is

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Speaker 2: so long and it's such a mental game. And that

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Speaker 2: was so impressive about Jane Daniels and Bo Knicks is

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Speaker 2: that you know a lot of their rookies they hit

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Speaker 2: that rookie wall at some point. These guys broke through it.

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Speaker 2: They kept improving. Their teams didn't make the playoffs. So

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Speaker 2: with Denver, it's just really about the coaching and the

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Speaker 2: fact that they've just drafted so well and they just

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Speaker 2: have a great team there. So I again I wanted

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Speaker 2: to take them out like I like putting in new teams.

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Speaker 2: It's just who are these other teams I trust more

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Speaker 2: than those two teams, Like I just when you're talking

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Speaker 2: about the head coaching, those two guys are Hall of famers.

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Speaker 2: It's tough for me to trust the coach in Cincinnati

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Speaker 2: rather than the coaching of Pittsburgh and Denver. So that's

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Speaker 2: where it's like it gets really hazy there at that

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Speaker 2: final spot putting in these wild card rounds.

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Speaker 3: Brandon, Yeah, to me, this is really with these teams,

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Speaker 3: especially two of them, it's about floor versus ceiling. And

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Speaker 3: with Pittsburgh and Denver, I can't get to a spot

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Speaker 3: where I'm excited about a ceiling being really above like

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Speaker 3: ten wins. And I know ten wins gets you to

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Speaker 3: the playoffs, but ten wins is a win or two

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Speaker 3: wins away from missing the playoffs. And I don't think

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Speaker 3: Pittsburgh and Denver are gonna be bad teams. But like Pittsburgh,

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Speaker 3: we know with Tomlin the five hundred streak, right, we

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Speaker 3: know that every year we talk about the five hundred streak.

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Speaker 3: What we don't talk about is they've had ten wins

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Speaker 3: our the last six of the last seven seasons. So

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Speaker 3: that is a hard cap on a ceiling for a

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Speaker 3: team that like, Okay, you blow one or two games

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Speaker 3: and now you're five hundred and now you're out of

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Speaker 3: the playoffs. And we got Aaron Tja Watt, Cam Hayward

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Speaker 3: probably maybe the three best most important players on the team,

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Speaker 3: certainly up on the list, all ancient in football years,

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Speaker 3: and Aaron Rodgers fourteen to twenty one the last three

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Speaker 3: years as a starter. I just feel like the ceiling

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Speaker 3: is capped there. And I don't like Aaron Rodgers fit

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Speaker 3: with Arthur Smith offense at all. So I don't know

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Speaker 3: how that's going to go. I don't know how it

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Speaker 3: sets up, but we've seen this not go well with

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Speaker 3: Rodgers recently. With Denver, to me as just a pile

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Speaker 3: of red flags. I talk about not believing in defense

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Speaker 3: from year to year. Denver was top five defense and

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Speaker 3: special teams last year, and both of those scream regression

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Speaker 3: to the mean. And if it's even a little bit

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Speaker 3: Denver's offense, I don't believe in much at all. I'm

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Speaker 3: not a Bonex guy, never been a Bonex guy. I

387
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Speaker 3: think last year probably was the best will get if

388
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Speaker 3: the defense is worse. Now you're starting with a ball

389
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Speaker 3: maybe fifteen yards further back on the field, and now

390
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Speaker 3: Bow's gotta actually makes some throws right now, he's gonna

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Speaker 3: actually do the thing and be quarterback, not just be

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Speaker 3: game manager. And I think the offense gets worse as

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Speaker 3: the defense gets worse. I don't believe in that coaching

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Speaker 3: staff quite as much. I don't believe advanced Joseph on

395
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Speaker 3: defense to have them be that incredible again. And in

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Speaker 3: both teams cases, Pittsburgh and Denver, they're both in tough

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Speaker 3: divisions too, right, They're both in divisions where each of

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Speaker 3: us has two other teams in Pittsburgh's division in the playoffs. Well,

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Speaker 3: I guess Simon has Pittsburgh in the playoffs, but tough divisions,

400
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Speaker 3: there certainly are three clearer playoff contenders Chargers with the

401
00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 3: other division as well, so I think two. You know,

402
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:37,080
Speaker 3: that's like if you look at Chiefs Chargers or Ravens Bengals,

403
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Speaker 3: that might be three losses already right there for either

404
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Speaker 3: one of these teams as well. So to me, the

405
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Speaker 3: Chargers are not a ton different on the floor ceiling thing.

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Speaker 3: The difference is, I'm gonna come back to the quarterback again,

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Speaker 3: justin Herbert and no we even seen it long enough,

408
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:53,520
Speaker 3: but we saw him make a better leap in the

409
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Speaker 3: second half of the season, we saw him more passing

410
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Speaker 3: as they kind of open up the offense a little bit.

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Speaker 3: They added backed in on the line. They're gonna get

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Speaker 3: year two of Lad McConkey. And again here's ceiling versus floor.

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Speaker 3: We're talking about the scene capped with Tomlin and with

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Speaker 3: the Broncos. Jim Harbaugh's floor to me, in five seasons

415
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Speaker 3: in the NFL, he's never finished below five hundred either.

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Speaker 3: But he's at eleven wins or more four of the

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Speaker 3: five seasons, and most of those are in the sixteen

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Speaker 3: game seasons, right, So eleven and five are better. I'm

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Speaker 3: not excited about the Chargers. I don't think I want

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Speaker 3: a Super Bowl ticket on the Chargers, but justin Herbert

421
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Speaker 3: to me has the talent to maybe push into that

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Speaker 3: top four or five quarterback range if he ever pulls

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Speaker 3: it together. We're running out of time here, but I

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Speaker 3: can see a floor and get excited about the ceiling,

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Speaker 3: and I rather have that delta pushing up than the

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Speaker 3: other two teams where the delta seems down to me.

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Speaker 3: So I have Chargers in with the high floor and

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Speaker 3: the Steelers and the who am I talking about the

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Speaker 3: Steelers In the Broncos I have out with the cap ceiling.

430
00:22:56,480 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 2: You're not worried about regressing that from Chargers defense, Yeah,

431
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:04,239
Speaker 2: I am really exceeded what they should have. You can

432
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:04,880
Speaker 2: agree with that.

433
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 3: That was incredible the talent on certainly of these three teams,

434
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:11,920
Speaker 3: there's no question which defense I feel least good about

435
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 3: going into the season. It just again kind of fitting

436
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,880
Speaker 3: in my theme here, especially in the AFC. I don't

437
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 3: feel great about a lot of teams in the conference.

438
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:23,439
Speaker 3: I'm gonna trust the quarterback and the offenses that I

439
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 3: feel good about. I'm basically saying I trust my ability

440
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,119
Speaker 3: to evaluate offense better than I trust my ability to

441
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:32,919
Speaker 3: evaluate defense. Defense is just gonna push toward the middle,

442
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 3: and I trust. Yeah. I'm taking what might just be

443
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:39,360
Speaker 3: the five best quarterbacks in the NFL and put them

444
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:41,639
Speaker 3: in the playoffs, and so I don't mind doing that.

445
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:45,240
Speaker 1: In the AFC, I cannot disagree with any of the

446
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:51,439
Speaker 1: analysis from Brandon. It's why I have the Chargers in.

447
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 1: I'm betting on the better quarterback, Simon. We love Sean Payton.

448
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 1: He's a great coach to bet on, but so is

449
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 1: Jim Harby. And there were games last year, especially a

450
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 1: game between the two of them where Harbaugh just out

451
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 1: coached Sean Payton and won a game. Because of that,

452
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 1: I'm going to bet on Harbaugh. I'm gonna bet on Herbert.

453
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:11,439
Speaker 1: I'm not going to bet on bow Knicks. That's really

454
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 1: what it's coming down to. And I think Aaron Rodgers

455
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 1: has just been fading. He's just not that good of

456
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 1: a quarterback anymore. So that's why I ultimately decided on

457
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 1: Cincinnati in that division instead of Pittsburgh. The summarize, we've

458
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 1: all got Kansas City, Baltimore, Buffalo really going out on

459
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 1: Alledge with those picks. The summarize, we've all got Kansas City, Baltimore, Buffalo,

460
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 1: really going out on Alledge with those picks. My next

461
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 1: three Houston Chargers, Cincinnati, Simon, Houston, Denver, Pittsburgh, Brandon Chargers, Jacksonville, Cincinnati,

462
00:24:56,600 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 1: one more spot for each of us. Brandon and Chad agree.

463
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 1: Mike Rabel New England Patriots, and I will kick it

464
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 1: off and say a I love Rabel. I think is

465
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 1: an instant difference maker. I think he can make this

466
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 1: team two to three games better. I like that they

467
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:24,159
Speaker 1: drafted high for the offensive line. They've nominally improved the

468
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 1: receiving corps. Drake May showed enough last year that when

469
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:31,199
Speaker 1: he had no webs in weapons, he had moxie and

470
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:35,119
Speaker 1: an ability to move the ball and defensively, this team

471
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:42,639
Speaker 1: is also improving, so you know it. It's not commanders like,

472
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 1: but to me, it is Commander's light. So that's why

473
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:52,160
Speaker 1: I liked the Patriots. Brandon back me up.

474
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:55,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think you made the case. I

475
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:57,960
Speaker 3: agree with all that. I love building in the trenches,

476
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 3: Will Campbell, Morgan, Moses, Scared Bradbury. This was probably the

477
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 3: worst line in the league last year. This could be

478
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 3: towards the league average line once they kind of jel

479
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,760
Speaker 3: all and get used to things. Drake May I am

480
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 3: very excited about. I think there is a world where

481
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:16,160
Speaker 3: Drake May is what we think about last season into

482
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:19,080
Speaker 3: the year. CJ. Stroud, what we think about maybe when

483
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 3: we've done with Trevor Lawrence, where we bump him up

484
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 3: into like the eighth spot, you know, that young quarterback

485
00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 3: that makes the leap. I think Drake May looked really

486
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:29,600
Speaker 3: good last year, especially given the context of terrible blocking,

487
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 3: no real weapons, and he still played really good football.

488
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 3: I frankly don't love long term the Vrabel and Josh

489
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 3: McDaniel's thing. I'm less excited about the future five years

490
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 3: from now about Drake May, but I think in the

491
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:47,439
Speaker 3: immediate future, this again is a ceiling floor thing. I

492
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 3: think they had a lot of floor. They increased the

493
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:52,920
Speaker 3: offensive line on defense, they get Milton Williams, they get

494
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 3: Harold Landry, Carlton Davis, the best corner in the market.

495
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 3: I think Davis and Christian Gonzalez could give them maybe

496
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 3: the best corners in the league if things turn out

497
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:05,439
Speaker 3: well there. So I think just raising the floor by saying, Okay,

498
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:08,879
Speaker 3: let's just get some guys, get some guys who can

499
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,399
Speaker 3: actually play football for us, and give us a chance.

500
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 3: The only bumber here, Chad, is that everyone else thinks

501
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 3: this too. Like the Patriots, there's no value on betting

502
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,560
Speaker 3: them to do anything because what are they favored in

503
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 3: like eleven games already going into the year when they

504
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:24,440
Speaker 3: were terrible last year. So I don't know. I wonder

505
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 3: if I ended up swerving on this, just trying to

506
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 3: find value somewhere else because there's really no way to

507
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:32,919
Speaker 3: bet this right now because everyone's already in the Patriots.

508
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:36,199
Speaker 1: Well, simon giving you an option, right here lay it

509
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 1: on us. Who's your seventh team?

510
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 2: Well, I will say to the Patriots, just what you

511
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 2: guys talk about physical dead on arrival. Everyone's just in

512
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 2: on it because they have an easy schedule. The Vrabel bump,

513
00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 2: Drake may your two jump, I get it. I didn't

514
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 2: pick them obviously, because to me, it's it's gonna come

515
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:58,360
Speaker 2: down to I trust coaches that are in new spots

516
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,880
Speaker 2: like Vrabel, that are talented, but with a veteran quarterback

517
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:03,720
Speaker 2: that I can trust as well. And that's why I

518
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:07,440
Speaker 2: ended up on Vegas, and I'm gonna save it because

519
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:09,160
Speaker 2: there's a lot of data to back it up. I want,

520
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:11,119
Speaker 2: I want to dive more into it. But Gino Smith

521
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:16,159
Speaker 2: splits between outdoors and indoors is massive, and going from

522
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:20,080
Speaker 2: Seattle to Vegas, it's gonna be a big deal for him,

523
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,399
Speaker 2: and especially in that offense where you know, to me,

524
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a really old school what Pete Carroll

525
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 2: wants to do with the Marshaun Lynch Russell Wilson type

526
00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:30,680
Speaker 2: of style. Right, They're gonna be a run heavy team

527
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 2: with gent and I love Gino Smith aspect of it,

528
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:36,359
Speaker 2: so I'm the hardest part is trying to find the

529
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 2: last place team that makes the jump. Like, that's what

530
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 2: I'm looking for here, because we always know that randomly happens.

531
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't know why I ended up

532
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:47,240
Speaker 2: on Vegas. It really again, I was looking at Tennessee,

533
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 2: but I was just like, man, this just feels like

534
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 2: the type of spot that like, we're not not overlooking

535
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 2: that we kind of are right. It's Pete Carroll on

536
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 2: the Raiders with Gino Smith. It's not sexy, it's not fun,

537
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 2: it's not being talked about really by now media. So

538
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 2: that's why it just they feel like the perfect under

539
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:05,720
Speaker 2: the radar team that sneaks in there in that final

540
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 2: seventh spot. But again, get I get the Patriots love,

541
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 2: they got the schedule. They obviously have the talent you

542
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 2: think across the board if their quarterback takes that year

543
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,680
Speaker 2: to jump, but that's the big question, right, So to me,

544
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 2: I'm playing it safe here, going to betteran quarterback. And

545
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 2: what I think is gonna be a big deal going

546
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 2: from Seattle to an indoor eight nine games out of

547
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 2: the year. It's gonna be a big deal for Gino.

548
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 1: Well, you can be right, that's a sneaky smart player

549
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 1: that the Raiders might have made to give themselves a

550
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 1: little bit of a higher floor with a coach who

551
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:37,640
Speaker 1: is seventy something years old and might not have that

552
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 1: many years, so you want to take advantage of what

553
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 1: he's trying to build there as quickly as you can.

554
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 1: NFC is interesting because we all agree on two returning

555
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 1: teams of the seven that can make the playoffs, and

556
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 1: it's not teams that you would expect. We agree on

557
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 1: Philadelphia in Green Bay, and we agree on a third

558
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 1: team that missed the playoffs last year in San Francisco.

559
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:08,479
Speaker 1: Before we get into anything quick, yes or no? Do

560
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 1: we all agree San Francisco could end up being the

561
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:16,880
Speaker 1: number one seed in the NFC? Simon, Yes or no?

562
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:21,240
Speaker 2: Yes, just because of schedule, Brandon.

563
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 3: Yes, they're my one super Bowl ticket right now.

564
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:28,440
Speaker 1: Chad. Yes, they are one of my two super Bowl

565
00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 1: tickets right now. Okay, that leaves four more teams. We

566
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:37,080
Speaker 1: don't even agree on whether or not last year's number

567
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:42,640
Speaker 1: one seed will make it. Chad, Chad, I'm getting too

568
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 1: used to referring to myself in the third person. Simon

569
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 1: and I agree that Detroit is in I will say

570
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 1: they were one of my last teams in Brandon. You

571
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 1: like Detroit to miss, so explain yourself.

572
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just I love to bet on fading. The

573
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 3: brain drain on teams, and the brain drain coming in

574
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 3: Detroit is going to be huge. Everyone's gonna be talking

575
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 3: about it, Ben Johnson, and we're gonna come back to

576
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 3: him in a bed. I know, but Ben Johnson out

577
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:11,960
Speaker 3: the door. We haven't seen what this offense is gonna

578
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:15,120
Speaker 3: look like without his play calling, we haven't seen. Everyone

579
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:18,840
Speaker 3: loves Dan Campbell's aggressiveness. Okay, are we sure we love

580
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,120
Speaker 3: it when we don't get Ben Johnson's play calling with

581
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 3: the aggressiveness, We're sure that we love that version of

582
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:26,720
Speaker 3: his aggression. You know, we've seen coaches over the years

583
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 3: where that aggression runs out and it suddenly doesn't work anymore.

584
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:34,440
Speaker 3: We've seen Jared Goff without Ben Johnson, without Sean McVay,

585
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 3: be a very mediocre to bad quarterback, and we saw

586
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 3: him in this Lions team not look good until Ben

587
00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:44,720
Speaker 3: Johnson started making the calls. Aaron Glenn on defense really

588
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 3: surprised me las year. I didn't give them enough credit.

589
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 3: That defense really overperformed and then and I think everyone

590
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 3: loves to revision his history and say the Lions had

591
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 3: the year from hell because they had all the injuries

592
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:56,719
Speaker 3: at the end of the season. They certainly did, but

593
00:31:56,960 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 3: I thought it was a Lion's year for like three

594
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 3: fourths of the season. I thought it was the Lions

595
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 3: year that they were the team that, man, everything is perfect,

596
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 3: They're going to be the Super Bowl team this year.

597
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 3: And so you get both sides. Both of those count

598
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 3: I do like for them. DJ Reid I think is

599
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 3: a really nice addition for them with Terry and Arnold.

600
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 3: So I think actually Detroit's defense could be better maybe

601
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 3: than they were last year. They're getting Aden Hutchinson back.

602
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 3: He was probably the defensive player of the year until

603
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 3: he got hurt. So it's yeah, it's not a team

604
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:30,640
Speaker 3: that I'm like super loving to fade because it's a

605
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 3: very talented roster. But I think the defense can be

606
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 3: a little better, but the offensive line gets worse. Frank

607
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 3: Raig now is a really big loss for them. The

608
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 3: splits with him playing and not playing is a big deal.

609
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:44,560
Speaker 3: And then you take the play calling away, you make

610
00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:47,040
Speaker 3: Goff a little bit worse, and now I think you

611
00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:51,160
Speaker 3: just have like a round a league average offense and defense,

612
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 3: maybe even slightly above average on both. But the NFC

613
00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 3: is tough. I could see this team being like a

614
00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 3: nine win team and still missing the playoffs, especially in

615
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 3: a very tough division. So you know, just a team

616
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 3: that when you lose Ben Johnson, lose Aaron gly and

617
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 3: lose Frank rag Now, like that's coaching an offensive line,

618
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 3: that's my stick, Like that's my thing. So if you're

619
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:14,840
Speaker 3: going to lose that much drain in those areas, it

620
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 3: has to be a team I'm out on.

621
00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, those are all the reasons why I potentially

622
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 1: left them out. Ultimately decided that's downgrading a little bit

623
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 1: too much given how high their ceiling was last year. Simon,

624
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 1: you're with me, explain for the both of us.

625
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 2: Detroit, it's still gonna be that Detroit offense, right. I

626
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:38,520
Speaker 2: do think they'll take a step back. They obviously won't

627
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 2: be the one seed, but could they still steal this

628
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 2: division somehow or make the wild court. I think that

629
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 2: will because they have just so much talent. And to me,

630
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 2: it's it's what you just talked about. The let's speakin

631
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 2: in the end. Like their window, we know football's window

632
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:53,880
Speaker 2: is two to three years usually, and then you kind

633
00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 2: of have to re remake who you are, like you

634
00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 2: have to become a whole new team and build out

635
00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 2: throughout the draft. And they've drafted so well that maybe

636
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:04,960
Speaker 2: they have another year or two to do it. But

637
00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:09,480
Speaker 2: I'm with you, guys, like I was looking forward to

638
00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:11,560
Speaker 2: betting them on the division last year, looking forward to

639
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:14,319
Speaker 2: betting them to potentially WINNFC. I didn't do any Super

640
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 2: Bowl futures. Me and Chat talked about. I just didn't think.

641
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:18,760
Speaker 2: I thought just something about the fact that it's Detroit

642
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 2: and it's golf. I was like, there's some something's gonna

643
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:24,360
Speaker 2: go awry here, and sure enough, pick six later against

644
00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 2: Washington it happened. So it's it's a tough spot with Detroit. Chat.

645
00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 2: I think me and you feel the same way, where

646
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:33,239
Speaker 2: we know the possibility them falling off the cliff is

647
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 2: real because football is so dependent on coaching. But man,

648
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 2: you just when you break it down, it's like the

649
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 2: talent's there. The question, to the end of the day

650
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 2: will be is that new offensive line they're building is

651
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 2: it gonna work? Because they've had some major departures and

652
00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 2: we talk agnaisma about it, but it's such an important

653
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:52,880
Speaker 2: cog to the NFL machine, that offensive line. So to me,

654
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:54,839
Speaker 2: that ended U might being the Achilles Seal of this team.

655
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 2: But to not make the playoffs, Wow, that's that's a

656
00:34:58,080 --> 00:34:59,919
Speaker 2: nice that's a nice plus number. Brandon. Do you remember

657
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 2: the number was on that the bet Detroit not making

658
00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:02,440
Speaker 2: the playoffs?

659
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 1: Right?

660
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:04,880
Speaker 2: No, because I bet you that's what plus two hundred

661
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 2: you think plus two fifty at least, right?

662
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 3: Yeah. I haven't seen the number in recent times in

663
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:12,840
Speaker 3: the debt of July here in the Dungeons in North Dakota.

664
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 3: But yeah, it's definitely a nice plus number because you know,

665
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:19,880
Speaker 3: if you're picking the one seed to miss out the

666
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,440
Speaker 3: following season, you're gonna get a number on that. To me.

667
00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:24,720
Speaker 3: I know we talked about like the Super Bowl losers curse,

668
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 3: who's that team that's going to fall off from last year?

669
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 3: They didn't make the Super Bowl, they didn't win a

670
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 3: playoff game. But I think Detroit is that team this year.

671
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,839
Speaker 3: I think they're the team that has the weight of

672
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:37,480
Speaker 3: what last year was and what this year isn't anymore

673
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 3: coming back to them. And I think partly it's because

674
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:41,160
Speaker 3: the division is so strong.

675
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:44,600
Speaker 1: Well, look, we can talk about the division, because that's

676
00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:49,640
Speaker 1: where we also have some discrepancies. The one thing I'll add, Simon,

677
00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 1: you talked about offensive line, Brandon, you mentioned Frank Ragnow.

678
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:57,719
Speaker 1: They also lost Kevin Zeitdler, who was one of the

679
00:35:57,719 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 1: best guards in football and maybe huge impact on their

680
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:05,840
Speaker 1: ability to run the ball and convert so frequently on

681
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:08,120
Speaker 1: fourth down. So I do think that's an I think

682
00:36:08,160 --> 00:36:10,800
Speaker 1: the weight of expectations and Brandon, I think that's a

683
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:13,239
Speaker 1: great way to frame it. You talk about that Super

684
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:16,759
Speaker 1: Bowl hangover for the team that lost, they feel the

685
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 1: same weight, like they feel they should have been there

686
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:22,120
Speaker 1: to not get there for a second year in a row.

687
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 1: The San Francisco loss a couple of years ago I

688
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:28,240
Speaker 1: think was inspiring. The one last year was a little

689
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:32,880
Speaker 1: bit deflating. The rest of the NSC North is interesting.

690
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:38,280
Speaker 1: I've got the Bears, Brandon, You've got the Bears in Minnesota. Simon,

691
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:44,520
Speaker 1: You've only got Detroit. I will say for the Bears, obviously,

692
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:47,200
Speaker 1: what's that I also have green Bay, right, you have

693
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:51,520
Speaker 1: green Bay. I have Detroit, Chicago and green Bay. Brandon,

694
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:55,720
Speaker 1: hash Chicago, Minnesota and green Bay. Simon, you have green

695
00:36:55,760 --> 00:37:01,399
Speaker 1: Bay and Detroit. I say this is an unbiased way

696
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 1: as possible. Everything the Lions lost for Ben Johnson, the

697
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 1: Bears are getting. I believe that their offense, they are

698
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 1: peaked at skill positions. They made their offensive line into

699
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 1: what I believe can at least be a top five

700
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 1: or top ten offensive line. The biggest challenge is going

701
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:23,000
Speaker 1: to be what have they done to improve their pass rush?

702
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 1: Not as much as you like as a fan, but

703
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 1: I like what they did offensively enough for them to

704
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:34,880
Speaker 1: make the playoffs. Brandon, you've explained why you're out on Detroit.

705
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 1: Explain Minnesota with a touch of a compliment to what

706
00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:44,400
Speaker 1: I said about the Bears.

707
00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:47,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean with the Bears, really it's the same

708
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:50,160
Speaker 3: thing as the Lions. Literally it's Ben Johnson, but it's

709
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:53,760
Speaker 3: the same points. I believe in investing in the lines,

710
00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:56,279
Speaker 3: winning in the trenches, and winning with good coaching. I

711
00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 3: think those are two edges as a better especially in

712
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 3: the futures market, that a big edge on. And I

713
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:05,319
Speaker 3: think what the Lions lost, quite literally was what the

714
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:08,440
Speaker 3: Bears gained here with Ben Johnson and what Caleb Williams

715
00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:11,120
Speaker 3: year two should look like with him, but also investing

716
00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 3: in that offensive line. I'm never gonna not like what

717
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:16,080
Speaker 3: you did if you go and get Joe Thoney and

718
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:19,799
Speaker 3: Drew Dolloman and Jonathan Jackson Grady Jarrett on defense, Like

719
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 3: if you're bringing all the boys in the middle around

720
00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:25,680
Speaker 3: the football, I'm gonna like what you did. So what

721
00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:28,040
Speaker 3: Detroit didn't do that I didn't like is what the

722
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:30,840
Speaker 3: Bears did do And frankly, it's kind of what the

723
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:34,360
Speaker 3: Vikings did as well. The Vikings get back Christian darrisaw

724
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 3: him and Brian O'Neal, I think are one of the

725
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 3: better tackle combos in the league. On the offensive line,

726
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:41,560
Speaker 3: Darris only played six and a half games last year,

727
00:38:41,800 --> 00:38:43,799
Speaker 3: but then they rebuilt the interior of the line with

728
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:46,680
Speaker 3: what basically was a pretty good Colts interior of the

729
00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:49,520
Speaker 3: line in the last couple of years when healthy. They

730
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:52,440
Speaker 3: also go out and get Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave

731
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:55,120
Speaker 3: as swings in the defensive line, adding to what was

732
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 3: already really talented defense. Now this was a defense that

733
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:01,239
Speaker 3: was really really good. And by my own thing I've

734
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 3: said just half an hour ago, shouldn't I be weary

735
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:06,759
Speaker 3: that won't they fall back to the earth? I am

736
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:08,919
Speaker 3: wary of that. I think Brian floor's defense. We've seen

737
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:11,560
Speaker 3: that within the season before, even where they kind of

738
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:13,480
Speaker 3: get found out a little bit. The corners are still

739
00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:16,759
Speaker 3: pretty weak on this team. Just to me, this is

740
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 3: a high floor formula. We have a great offensive line,

741
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,759
Speaker 3: a ton of weapons on offense, a really good defense

742
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:27,840
Speaker 3: that may not be number two, but we know Flores

743
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:30,319
Speaker 3: gets defenses perform at a top ten level year after

744
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:33,480
Speaker 3: year when he has some talent there. The trenches are good,

745
00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:37,839
Speaker 3: the coaching is good. There's just a lot to believe in.

746
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:40,719
Speaker 3: And I haven't said the one name that you maybe

747
00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 3: don't believe in, which is JJ McCarthy. We don't know

748
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:46,280
Speaker 3: about JJ McCarthy, but we didn't know about Sam Donald

749
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:48,960
Speaker 3: last year either, And frankly, we had all the reasons

750
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:52,240
Speaker 3: to not believe in Sam Donald. Why can't JJ McCarthy

751
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:54,120
Speaker 3: be as good as Sam Donald? Why can't he be

752
00:39:54,160 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 3: as good as what Jared Goff was with a good

753
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 3: play caller. Why can't JJ McCarthy be better than Sam Darnald.

754
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:02,480
Speaker 3: I don't know. With this blocking and I think two,

755
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:05,359
Speaker 3: I'm excited as a Vikings fan, and I will say

756
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:07,799
Speaker 3: normally that would make me bet against Minnesota, not for them.

757
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 3: So don't take that with too much a grain of salt,

758
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 3: but I'm excited to see what can this offensive do

759
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:16,799
Speaker 3: with a quarterback that can move a little bit. That's

760
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:18,799
Speaker 3: one thing that koc has not had is a guy

761
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 3: that can move out of the pocket create a little

762
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 3: bit with his legs. I think McCarthy gives them a

763
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:26,960
Speaker 3: new dimension to the offense they haven't had with the weapons,

764
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 3: with the run game that they found last season, with

765
00:40:29,640 --> 00:40:32,279
Speaker 3: the line, I think there's there are a lot of

766
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:35,879
Speaker 3: outs for Minnesota to still be good. I know that

767
00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:39,800
Speaker 3: it all says fourteen and three expected wins like eleven wins.

768
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:42,160
Speaker 3: They were nine to one in all the one score games.

769
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:44,720
Speaker 3: We know all the reasons that they should be worse

770
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 3: this year. This is a team that I traditionally would

771
00:40:48,280 --> 00:40:51,200
Speaker 3: choose to be out on. I'm kind of purposefully swerving

772
00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 3: and saying, Okay, I think they can be worse than

773
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:56,040
Speaker 3: that record. They were not that good last year, but

774
00:40:56,040 --> 00:40:57,839
Speaker 3: I think they could be a better team this year

775
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 3: and still have a a floor in a structure that

776
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:03,239
Speaker 3: puts them in the mixing the playoffs.

777
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:09,560
Speaker 1: All right, Simon, anti Bears, anti Vikings, explain yourself.

778
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:12,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Vikings one's pretty easy. It just you have

779
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:14,040
Speaker 2: to pick some teams that made it last year to

780
00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:17,760
Speaker 2: miss everything he just highlighted, is it's all red flags.

781
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:20,000
Speaker 2: Like me and you were so down on them coming

782
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:21,680
Speaker 2: to the season. It was pretty simple. We just didn't

783
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 2: believe Sam Darnold, and he outperformed anybody's watle it's expectations

784
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:29,120
Speaker 2: in all those fourth quarters, any game that was tight,

785
00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:32,319
Speaker 2: the other team, Wilton and he always stepped up and

786
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:35,520
Speaker 2: eventually it ran out like we saw in that Detroit

787
00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:38,360
Speaker 2: then the Rams game, it just he had a peak

788
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:41,279
Speaker 2: and then eventually it just came crashing down. So it's

789
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:44,080
Speaker 2: all there, Like that defense obviously overperformed because they were

790
00:41:44,120 --> 00:41:47,080
Speaker 2: so well coached in Minnesota. But it's another thing. It's

791
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:50,040
Speaker 2: the unknown quarterback. So yeah, they could potentially be a

792
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:53,360
Speaker 2: team to make it. But betting odds, going off past

793
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 2: history and one score wins, we see it fluctuates and

794
00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:58,520
Speaker 2: it is depending on coaching. Like coaching can be so good,

795
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:01,800
Speaker 2: you can rise above it. We've seen Pittsburgh door for years,

796
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:05,800
Speaker 2: but it's unlikely just in your division, it's so brutally tough,

797
00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:09,480
Speaker 2: Like all these teams are so talented, so well coached

798
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:11,880
Speaker 2: and that's where it's tough. With Chicago, Chad. You have

799
00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 2: an offensive coordinator coming in doing his first coaching job

800
00:42:15,640 --> 00:42:18,839
Speaker 2: in the NFL. Year one. We've seen a timetime again.

801
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 2: It could be beautiful for five six weeks and then

802
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:25,879
Speaker 2: just crash and burn. One little thing goes wrong, he

803
00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:28,479
Speaker 2: loses the locker room, whatever it may be, it could

804
00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:30,400
Speaker 2: be really bad. We don't know what type of coaching

805
00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:32,719
Speaker 2: style he has yet. We know he's a psycho like

806
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:35,160
Speaker 2: we've seen him talk and he's all in, I love it.

807
00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 2: Like he's an exact type of coach you want perfectionists,

808
00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:40,239
Speaker 2: makes hi run the same play ten times until they

809
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:42,520
Speaker 2: run the exact way he wants it. That's what you

810
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:44,400
Speaker 2: need in the NFL. You need someone like that to

811
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 2: that pays dunch and every little detail so kind of work.

812
00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:49,319
Speaker 2: If they win, hell yeah. But if it goes bad,

813
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:52,399
Speaker 2: we've seen in Chicago it goes really bad because it's

814
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 2: just so much weight on that team in that city

815
00:42:54,800 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 2: and it's a first year head coach. So with me

816
00:42:57,640 --> 00:42:59,839
Speaker 2: and them, it's it was really tough because I took

817
00:42:59,880 --> 00:43:02,160
Speaker 2: the Detroit over them. That was like I was in

818
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 2: between Chicago Detroit because I have green Bay in the

819
00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:07,480
Speaker 2: winning the division, you know, if I'm betting wise, So

820
00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 2: that's where he just came down to. It was just tough.

821
00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 2: Am I really going to take Chicago year one? To me? I?

822
00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:14,400
Speaker 2: Me and you talk about a little bit, chat. I

823
00:43:14,480 --> 00:43:16,800
Speaker 2: just think this is another growing year for Caleb Williams.

824
00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 2: I would be so happy if they made it right,

825
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:21,640
Speaker 2: they string together a couple of those one score wins, right,

826
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:24,319
Speaker 2: huge jump because the offensive line, the coaching staff, no

827
00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:27,640
Speaker 2: one to be shocked Chicago making It's just unlikely because

828
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:29,200
Speaker 2: it's just such a tough division.

829
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:33,600
Speaker 1: We both have, Simon, You and I both have Dallas In.

830
00:43:34,480 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 1: Uh none of us have the commanders in.

831
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 2: Okay.

832
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:44,240
Speaker 1: It's interesting, right, Yeah, This just feels like a natural

833
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:51,080
Speaker 1: regression regression for defenses, figuring out how to stop Jadan Daniels,

834
00:43:51,440 --> 00:43:55,440
Speaker 1: the regression on fourth down conversions, the way he plays.

835
00:43:55,480 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 1: Who knows the injury possibilities are just higher that defense.

836
00:44:00,200 --> 00:44:03,239
Speaker 1: Since Brandon pointed out it is inconsistent year to year.

837
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:06,279
Speaker 1: Last year they were better than expected. Did they do

838
00:44:06,320 --> 00:44:09,720
Speaker 1: anything to get that much better during the offseason? Simon,

839
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:13,719
Speaker 1: you and I both like Dallas In. I like it

840
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:15,960
Speaker 1: more because their defense is going to be healthier and

841
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:19,680
Speaker 1: they have Dac back. Can you give a little bit

842
00:44:19,680 --> 00:44:21,120
Speaker 1: of insight because I want to do this one quickly

843
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:23,360
Speaker 1: because we got a lot still to get through, but

844
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:26,000
Speaker 1: a little bit of insight on Dallas.

845
00:44:26,560 --> 00:44:28,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I'll save all of for when we do

846
00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 2: divisional talks with Dallas, because you know how I feel

847
00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:32,279
Speaker 2: about them. But it really is that simple, as Chad

848
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:34,400
Speaker 2: said it, It's just a team that's coming off a

849
00:44:34,480 --> 00:44:37,520
Speaker 2: down year. They're going to have their quarterback back, have

850
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:39,840
Speaker 2: a number two receiver in pickings. That's a big upgrade.

851
00:44:39,880 --> 00:44:41,359
Speaker 2: I think the offense line will be better because they

852
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 2: were so young last year. They should have a running game.

853
00:44:43,800 --> 00:44:46,040
Speaker 2: Just that defense, like that defense is a ton of talent.

854
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:48,040
Speaker 2: They just simply could not stop the run. And they

855
00:44:48,040 --> 00:44:50,400
Speaker 2: feel like they've addressed that here in this offseason. So

856
00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:52,680
Speaker 2: for me, that was easy one. With Washington, I don't

857
00:44:52,680 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 2: know if we're all in agreement, but it's kind of

858
00:44:55,160 --> 00:44:56,960
Speaker 2: what Chad said, right, It's the aggression of Jade and

859
00:44:57,000 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 2: Daniels and just that defense, Like they have not improved

860
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:02,400
Speaker 2: that defense, it's in any way, and they just overachieved

861
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:05,759
Speaker 2: in so many ways. And we talked about that Chicago game.

862
00:45:05,760 --> 00:45:07,640
Speaker 2: Felt could flipped their season. They felt like they could

863
00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:10,280
Speaker 2: have gone either way. Right, they lose that game, Chicago,

864
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:13,080
Speaker 2: and it goes the other way, they win it, they

865
00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:15,200
Speaker 2: go on the up and up. Chicago's got the other way, right,

866
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:17,520
Speaker 2: chicaganna win another game for like five six weeks after

867
00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:21,479
Speaker 2: that loss to Washington. So, yeah, that's Washington. You're playing

868
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:23,200
Speaker 2: with house money. Like those fans, they don't care what

869
00:45:23,200 --> 00:45:25,360
Speaker 2: we're saying right now. They believe in Jad and Dana's

870
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:27,880
Speaker 2: They think they have the greatest quarterback ever. And we

871
00:45:27,920 --> 00:45:31,719
Speaker 2: all agree it's highly talented. But eighty percent of fourth down,

872
00:45:31,719 --> 00:45:35,680
Speaker 2: it's just it's not it's disagression. It's impossible. Like he

873
00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:39,959
Speaker 2: maybe is neo he's gonna break the matrix. But we've

874
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:43,040
Speaker 2: seen the NFL, these guys getting paid millions and millions

875
00:45:43,080 --> 00:45:46,480
Speaker 2: of dollars. They will figure it out. They always do.

876
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:48,960
Speaker 2: Like doesn't matter how great you are, they will find

877
00:45:49,000 --> 00:45:51,320
Speaker 2: your weakness and they will attack it after six months

878
00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:54,200
Speaker 2: of grinding tape in the offseason. So yeah, Brandon, where

879
00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:56,239
Speaker 2: we at with Washington in the same boat as me

880
00:45:56,239 --> 00:45:57,640
Speaker 2: and Chad. I can't believe all three of us have

881
00:45:57,760 --> 00:45:58,160
Speaker 2: them out.

882
00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I very similar. I think the fourth down conversion

883
00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:04,919
Speaker 3: rate is just crazy outlier and has to come down.

884
00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:07,480
Speaker 3: I think two this is this year's Houston. This is

885
00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:10,760
Speaker 3: the hype team with the young quarterback that everyone's excited about.

886
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 3: And I think they got a little bit of their

887
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:15,840
Speaker 3: own excitement too. We see a team each year that's like,

888
00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:18,359
Speaker 3: you know what, we're one or two pieces away, So

889
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:20,760
Speaker 3: what do they do rather than going out and building

890
00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:23,160
Speaker 3: the roster the right way. Washington wasn't supposed to be

891
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:25,799
Speaker 3: this good last year. They're supposed to be slowly building up,

892
00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:28,160
Speaker 3: and they're like, oh no, we're gonna go get Deebo,

893
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 3: who hasn't been good for a couple of years anyways.

894
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:33,600
Speaker 3: And we're gonna get Laromie Tunsel, who's gonna fix our

895
00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:35,719
Speaker 3: whole offensive line. But oh wait, there's still four other

896
00:46:35,800 --> 00:46:37,759
Speaker 3: guys on the line, and their line get really found

897
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:39,560
Speaker 3: out as the season went on last year too. So

898
00:46:40,000 --> 00:46:42,000
Speaker 3: I think we see those teams that make the big

899
00:46:42,040 --> 00:46:45,919
Speaker 3: splash moves and everyone's excited, we already had a good team,

900
00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:48,640
Speaker 3: now we had these two stars onto the team. They

901
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:51,279
Speaker 3: I think are the team that finished nine to one

902
00:46:51,400 --> 00:46:54,520
Speaker 3: in games under a touchdown, including four straight to make

903
00:46:54,520 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 3: the playoffs, then Tampa in the playoffs, and then frankly

904
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:01,880
Speaker 3: right place, right time to take advantage of the Detroit

905
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:05,480
Speaker 3: defense that just had nobody left. In the NBA, we

906
00:47:05,560 --> 00:47:08,799
Speaker 3: see teams make the conference finals and then get high

907
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:11,520
Speaker 3: on their own juice and be like, oh, here we are.

908
00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:13,399
Speaker 3: You know, the Atlanta Hawks did it. The Portland Trail

909
00:47:13,440 --> 00:47:16,160
Speaker 3: Blazers did it. We see year after year and they're like, Okay,

910
00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:18,440
Speaker 3: we're all on this core now, and it turns out

911
00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:20,200
Speaker 3: that was the best it got with that group. You

912
00:47:20,239 --> 00:47:23,480
Speaker 3: gotta still kind of pivot and go somewhere. Growth isn't linear,

913
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:26,640
Speaker 3: So I think Washington, I'm not out on Jaden. I

914
00:47:26,760 --> 00:47:28,560
Speaker 3: just need the rest of the team to come with it.

915
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:30,000
Speaker 3: I think the rest of the team's going to take

916
00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 3: some work. Dallas, I'm less excited. But if you like Dallas,

917
00:47:33,800 --> 00:47:35,560
Speaker 3: I think Parsons Defensive Player of the Year is a

918
00:47:35,560 --> 00:47:37,080
Speaker 3: good way to invest in Dallas.

919
00:47:38,040 --> 00:47:41,160
Speaker 1: I like that growth isn't linear, all right. We all

920
00:47:41,200 --> 00:47:45,879
Speaker 1: like Philadelphia, Green Bay, San Francisco. We all have very

921
00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 1: different choices for winners of the NFC South. I like Atlanta,

922
00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:56,080
Speaker 1: Simon likes Tampa Bay, Brandon Lakes Carolina. Let's think about

923
00:47:56,120 --> 00:47:59,759
Speaker 1: that as we go into sort of figuring out what

924
00:47:59,840 --> 00:48:08,080
Speaker 1: our final equation looks like. Brandon and Simon, you guys

925
00:48:08,160 --> 00:48:14,640
Speaker 1: agree that your final team in the playoffs is the

926
00:48:14,680 --> 00:48:20,480
Speaker 1: Los Angeles Rams. I'll let you start, Brandon. You have

927
00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:25,360
Speaker 1: the Rams going in, So your final seven I believe

928
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:35,960
Speaker 1: would be Rams, Bears, Bikings, Eagles, Green Bay, San Francisco,

929
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:38,920
Speaker 1: and Carolina.

930
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:44,400
Speaker 3: Yes, why the Rams? Yeah? I think just with the Rams.

931
00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:46,719
Speaker 3: They had a ton of injuries last year and still

932
00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:50,239
Speaker 3: made the playoffs. Anyway, Now they get DeVonta Adams and

933
00:48:50,320 --> 00:48:53,920
Speaker 3: replacement for Coup Devanta Adams plus Puka, I think can

934
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:57,240
Speaker 3: be just a really really good receiving corps. The offensive

935
00:48:57,239 --> 00:48:59,640
Speaker 3: line also had a ton of injuries last year. Aleric

936
00:48:59,719 --> 00:49:02,640
Speaker 3: Jackson and left tackle missed the first two games. Steve

937
00:49:02,680 --> 00:49:05,160
Speaker 3: Avlo was hurt a lot of the season. Rob Havinstan

938
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:07,800
Speaker 3: was hurt. I think this year you get a better line.

939
00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:11,800
Speaker 3: Stafford historically has very much reflected the play of his line,

940
00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:14,560
Speaker 3: and frankly so is Sean mcvay's offense. We think of

941
00:49:14,600 --> 00:49:18,280
Speaker 3: Sean McVay as this like crazy attacking offense. His offense

942
00:49:18,320 --> 00:49:20,280
Speaker 3: goes where the run game goes and when the line

943
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:22,319
Speaker 3: is better, the run game with Karen Ronan is gonna

944
00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:25,520
Speaker 3: be better. So I think this offense when healthy, which

945
00:49:25,520 --> 00:49:27,319
Speaker 3: we can't just assume they're gonna be healthy. They're not

946
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:29,400
Speaker 3: going to be They're gonna miss some games when you

947
00:49:29,480 --> 00:49:33,200
Speaker 3: have Devant Dams and Puka and Stafford, they're gonna miss

948
00:49:33,200 --> 00:49:35,959
Speaker 3: a little bit of time. But when healthy, they're gonna

949
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:37,520
Speaker 3: be as good as anyone. We saw that Bills game

950
00:49:37,560 --> 00:49:39,360
Speaker 3: last year right where they just looked, you know, they

951
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:41,600
Speaker 3: could put up any points, any score they needed to

952
00:49:42,239 --> 00:49:44,879
Speaker 3: the defense. I don't love it, but I think it's

953
00:49:45,080 --> 00:49:48,640
Speaker 3: young and improving, heading in the right direction. Matt Stafford

954
00:49:48,719 --> 00:49:52,520
Speaker 3: has been my first MVP bet for the season, not

955
00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:54,799
Speaker 3: because I'm all in on of the Rams, far from it.

956
00:49:54,840 --> 00:49:57,040
Speaker 3: I'm not really believing the team, but if they hit

957
00:49:57,080 --> 00:50:00,239
Speaker 3: what they could be, I think this offense, if they're

958
00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:02,680
Speaker 3: healthy all year, it could be like a thirteen win team.

959
00:50:02,760 --> 00:50:05,759
Speaker 3: And Stafford is a fifty to one MVP ticket is

960
00:50:05,800 --> 00:50:08,799
Speaker 3: a ticket worth investing in for once. No brain drain

961
00:50:09,080 --> 00:50:12,080
Speaker 3: In Los Angeles, Sean McVay finally didn't lose everybody that

962
00:50:12,200 --> 00:50:14,560
Speaker 3: he's ever talked or out of copy with before, so

963
00:50:14,600 --> 00:50:16,560
Speaker 3: we just kind of get to run back a team

964
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:19,120
Speaker 3: that was pretty good already. So a lot of options.

965
00:50:19,160 --> 00:50:21,040
Speaker 3: I like the other teams in that division as well,

966
00:50:21,120 --> 00:50:23,760
Speaker 3: but for now I've got the Rams in Simon.

967
00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:27,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just love this Rams team. I like them

968
00:50:27,880 --> 00:50:29,120
Speaker 2: more than forty nine ers. I know you guys are

969
00:50:29,160 --> 00:50:31,319
Speaker 2: both bigger on the forty nine ers right now, and

970
00:50:31,440 --> 00:50:34,000
Speaker 2: I agree for season long, that's fair because we've just

971
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 2: seen this Rams team every year. They feel like they

972
00:50:36,000 --> 00:50:38,319
Speaker 2: start slow and then they play catch up second half.

973
00:50:38,360 --> 00:50:41,480
Speaker 2: So to me, it's it's understainable why people would be

974
00:50:41,560 --> 00:50:43,520
Speaker 2: high in the forty nine ers. But when you break

975
00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:45,440
Speaker 2: down the Rams, I just think across the board they

976
00:50:45,440 --> 00:50:48,040
Speaker 2: have so much talent and adding Adams to this team

977
00:50:48,160 --> 00:50:50,640
Speaker 2: is just insane, Like I can't believe that got him

978
00:50:50,640 --> 00:50:52,759
Speaker 2: with Puka, that's just such a nice combo. And you

979
00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:55,840
Speaker 2: know their defensive line. I think they're just severely underrated.

980
00:50:55,920 --> 00:50:58,359
Speaker 2: Like they're a young, hungry group that we've seen time

981
00:50:58,440 --> 00:51:00,120
Speaker 2: time again. If you coach it right, they grew and

982
00:51:00,160 --> 00:51:03,080
Speaker 2: they get better. It's a big deal. Last year their

983
00:51:03,120 --> 00:51:05,279
Speaker 2: final five to six games, that d Lion got so

984
00:51:05,480 --> 00:51:07,880
Speaker 2: much better for that Rams team, they really improved. I

985
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:09,759
Speaker 2: feel like that Bill's game is a turning point for them.

986
00:51:09,800 --> 00:51:13,200
Speaker 2: They really figured some stuff out after that. Different combinations,

987
00:51:13,200 --> 00:51:15,440
Speaker 2: and I just love the way they played heading especially

988
00:51:15,440 --> 00:51:17,319
Speaker 2: in the playoffs, like that Vikings game, that de line

989
00:51:17,360 --> 00:51:20,719
Speaker 2: dominated against the Eagles. They're really really talented and dominant.

990
00:51:20,760 --> 00:51:24,080
Speaker 2: So yeah, that Rams team, if I'm going to make

991
00:51:24,120 --> 00:51:26,640
Speaker 2: one futures bet in NFC, wouldn't be the Eagles. It

992
00:51:26,680 --> 00:51:29,080
Speaker 2: would still be this Rams team to win the Super Bowl.

993
00:51:29,080 --> 00:51:31,480
Speaker 2: I just think they have the best value. Been there,

994
00:51:31,600 --> 00:51:34,799
Speaker 2: done that, right, head coach, quarterback, we talk all the time.

995
00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:37,040
Speaker 2: That's such a big deal in football, like knowing you've

996
00:51:37,040 --> 00:51:39,359
Speaker 2: already climbed that mountain you won't get phase and those

997
00:51:39,360 --> 00:51:41,239
Speaker 2: tough moments in the playoffs. That's a big deal to me.

998
00:51:41,320 --> 00:51:44,560
Speaker 2: So yeah, Shanahan, I love them. But man, we've had

999
00:51:44,560 --> 00:51:47,120
Speaker 2: some brutal, brutal losses on futures on him with that

1000
00:51:47,160 --> 00:51:49,239
Speaker 2: f forty nine are seeing to the Super Bowl. So yeah,

1001
00:51:49,280 --> 00:51:51,239
Speaker 2: just confidence level. I'm all in on this Rams team

1002
00:51:51,280 --> 00:51:52,120
Speaker 2: this upcoming season.

1003
00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:58,960
Speaker 1: I signon, give me your final seven for the NFC.

1004
00:52:00,120 --> 00:52:05,160
Speaker 2: So I went Dallas Eagles out of the East. Believe

1005
00:52:05,200 --> 00:52:10,480
Speaker 2: I Bucks, South, Green Bay, Detroit for the North and

1006
00:52:11,000 --> 00:52:12,680
Speaker 2: who do I have West? I believe I have the

1007
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:15,440
Speaker 2: forty nine ers and just the Rams. So yeah, the

1008
00:52:15,760 --> 00:52:19,280
Speaker 2: loan division gotta go to the South right with the Bucks.

1009
00:52:19,280 --> 00:52:21,600
Speaker 2: It's just that that one's such a toss up. I

1010
00:52:21,600 --> 00:52:23,920
Speaker 2: know a lot of pros just like Brandon here, they

1011
00:52:24,000 --> 00:52:26,879
Speaker 2: like Panthers, mean and Chad, we drank that kool aid.

1012
00:52:26,920 --> 00:52:29,520
Speaker 2: I would love for that to work out, But give

1013
00:52:29,520 --> 00:52:31,000
Speaker 2: it out on this show. I'm gonna go. I'm gonna

1014
00:52:31,000 --> 00:52:32,680
Speaker 2: play it safe in case people are betting stuff for

1015
00:52:32,719 --> 00:52:34,719
Speaker 2: giving out here and just go Bucks. It's just I

1016
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:37,120
Speaker 2: know they lost, you know, argument in the best office

1017
00:52:37,160 --> 00:52:39,719
Speaker 2: corodinators in football. But yeah, just we can't stop our

1018
00:52:39,760 --> 00:52:41,880
Speaker 2: Baker love. We just love Baker on this show.

1019
00:52:42,000 --> 00:52:52,080
Speaker 1: All right. I am on Philadelphia, Green Bay, San Francisco, Detroit, Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta. Brandon,

1020
00:52:52,960 --> 00:53:00,640
Speaker 1: one more reminder, Philadelphia, Green Bay, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Chicago,

1021
00:53:02,120 --> 00:53:08,680
Speaker 1: Minnesota and the Rams love you wild. I mean, that's

1022
00:53:08,880 --> 00:53:14,120
Speaker 1: what we're given. Everybody's got an option for something with

1023
00:53:14,200 --> 00:53:19,279
Speaker 1: this one. Brandon Anderson from the Dungeons of North Dakota,

1024
00:53:19,640 --> 00:53:23,480
Speaker 1: thanks for coming on the podcast and creating this game

1025
00:53:23,880 --> 00:53:27,719
Speaker 1: that we could play, called Who Will Make the Playoffs

1026
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:32,319
Speaker 1: in the NFL. The Favorites will return with our next

1027
00:53:32,320 --> 00:53:35,880
Speaker 1: episode Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page with special

1028
00:53:35,920 --> 00:53:40,160
Speaker 1: guest Rich Reebar talking top ten quarterbacks. Also check it

1029
00:53:40,200 --> 00:53:45,600
Speaker 1: out with clips and highlights at Real Chad Milman on YouTube.

1030
00:53:45,640 --> 00:53:49,600
Speaker 1: Download US with Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pause, rate, reviews,

1031
00:53:49,600 --> 00:53:51,759
Speaker 1: subscribe ups, five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is

1032
00:53:51,800 --> 00:54:02,440
Speaker 1: a gift Until next time, Love you. Action Network reminds

1033
00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:06,319
Speaker 1: you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care

1034
00:54:06,320 --> 00:54:09,480
Speaker 1: about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four

1035
00:54:09,520 --> 00:54:11,520
Speaker 1: to seven at one eight hundred Gambler