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Speaker 1: I'll be Friday Football friends, and welcome to the Teams

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Speaker 1: Approvals Football Podcast. I'm your post Bobby Sylvester. As usual,

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Speaker 1: I've got producer JP Gail by my side, and today

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Speaker 1: we're joined by Doug Nor of DFSR dot com to

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Speaker 1: chat about Week nines DFS slate. Before we begin, however,

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Speaker 1: I want to remind you about our contest to upgrade

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Speaker 1: to my playbook Ultimate Upgrade, which comes complete with our

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Speaker 1: full ownership projections, plenty of other detailed DFS tools. To

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Speaker 1: get entry, just subscribe on iTunes, leave us a review

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Speaker 1: and email me about it. Also, I know this is

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Speaker 1: the football podcast, but I just want to remind all

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Speaker 1: the Cubs fans out there that in one hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifteen years, your team has forty three playoff wins past

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Speaker 1: fifteen years, the Cardinals have seventy nine. All right, I'll

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Speaker 1: over to the DFS talk. Hey, Doug, thanks for coming

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Speaker 1: on the show. Sorry to start to laugh over your

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Speaker 1: your live read. How's it going, glad to be here?

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Speaker 1: It's going okay. Man. I'm a big Cardinals fan, so

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Speaker 1: that was hard for me last night. Like all these people,

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Speaker 1: I can't stand the best fans in baseball that they

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Speaker 1: call themselves that first of all, and then all these

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Speaker 1: people like they're congratulating the Cubs, like, uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: like they're happy for them, Like be a real fan,

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Speaker 1: be mad that your rival won the World Series, right,

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I feel like there might be like

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Speaker 1: one case, like the one in one hundred earcase where

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Speaker 1: you can just be feel fun. I don't know, it's funny.

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Speaker 1: I'm dusting the cobwebs off a little bit. We stayed

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Speaker 1: out watching that game last night, and then, uh, and

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Speaker 1: I was I found myself to be a one night

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Speaker 1: Cubs fan. I think so I was seeing I grew

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Speaker 1: up a Red Sock fan, but I was so I

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Speaker 1: kind of understand the long term suffering of a of

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Speaker 1: a fan base like that. So I proxy myself into

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Speaker 1: a Cubs fan for one that was See, I'm just furious.

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Speaker 1: I was throwing a hissy fit last night, like trying

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Speaker 1: to figure out how it was rigged in. Soaye, man,

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Speaker 1: it's it drives me nuts today. Anyways, thanks for coming

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Speaker 1: on the show last week. I struggled a little bit.

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Speaker 1: My advice wasn't bad on the show, but unfortune I

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Speaker 1: made the number one mistake and tried to get cute

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Speaker 1: with my lineup and didn't follow my own advice after

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Speaker 1: doing all the research. So how have you been doing

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Speaker 1: this year? You know? Last week was interesting. Last week

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Speaker 1: was great for us, but it was one of those

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Speaker 1: weeks where you just had to you need to have

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Speaker 1: two things happen for you. One, you just had to

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Speaker 1: have one guy that had had a big game basically,

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Speaker 1: and you needed to sort of fade as many injuries

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Speaker 1: as possible, and that wasn't an easy thing to do.

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Speaker 1: Like for us, we had Aaron Rodgers everywhere last week,

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Speaker 1: so it ended up being fine, but it was one

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Speaker 1: of those weeks. I was definitely one of those weeks

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Speaker 1: where we said, this is probably the craziest, and it

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Speaker 1: was definitely the craziest week of the NFL this year,

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Speaker 1: right with like super huge chalk plays going down with injury,

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Speaker 1: just some guys just pulling complete no shows that's still

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Speaker 1: even played. And so just like just that idea, if

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Speaker 1: you just had like an amor Cooper or an Aaron Rodgers,

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Speaker 1: you were kind of okay, But it was just kind

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Speaker 1: of hard to have those things. So last week was fine,

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Speaker 1: though It's like I didn't come out of the week

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Speaker 1: feeling great about it because I also felt like, well,

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Speaker 1: kind of dodge the bullet. Yeah, yeah, exactly. All right, Well,

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Speaker 1: let's begin here at quarterback, and I think it's an

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Speaker 1: interesting week. Six teams on buy, including a lot of

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Speaker 1: powerhouse offenses. So is Aaron Rodgers the most clear cut

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Speaker 1: cash game play at quarterback so far this season? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I think so. I mean, like he you know, one

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Speaker 1: of the things we liked about him going into last

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Speaker 1: week and especially this week, and he'll he wasn't. He

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Speaker 1: was you know, pretty under owned last week, which was

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Speaker 1: night which was nice. But he'll it won't be the

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Speaker 1: case this week because the Packers just, you know, their

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Speaker 1: whole offense is him. He's their ground game and there

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Speaker 1: and the passing game obviously, and you know they are

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Speaker 1: employing such a pass heavy offense and then he's you know,

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Speaker 1: making things happen with his legs, not even in you know,

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Speaker 1: design set runs, but more of like drop back past,

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Speaker 1: don't find anything, scramble sort of situations. But they're going

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Speaker 1: to keep continuing employing that and sort of like this

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Speaker 1: wild caddy backfield of cobb and gumery or whatever they

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Speaker 1: end up doing this week. He's just the volume is

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Speaker 1: so much and the fewer the quarterbacks are able to

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Speaker 1: kind of touch that. So yeah, I think I think

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Speaker 1: he ends up being the chalk and I think it's

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Speaker 1: actually correct. Just on a peer numbers base, we project

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Speaker 1: him for twenty four point one points. That's a really

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Speaker 1: high total. He needs just thirty to make GPP value,

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Speaker 1: So that's twenty five percent higher than his projection. Just

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Speaker 1: to give you all an ideal listening, a standard quarterback

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Speaker 1: scores twenty five percent higher than his projection a little

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Speaker 1: more than about thirty percent of the time. So that

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Speaker 1: makes him my QB with the highest odds to reach

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Speaker 1: GPP value this season. And he's a great cash game play.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I love Aaron Rodgers this week, playing him everywhere.

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Speaker 1: I mean there's some other good plays too, but Aaron

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Speaker 1: Rodgers this week, Man, it is a good situation done well.

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Speaker 1: He gets gifted of a bad defense again, right, And

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Speaker 1: so if he was facing you know, I don't know,

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Speaker 1: and it really kind of almost anybody else that's playing

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Speaker 1: this week, it would be a little closer. But the

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Speaker 1: fact that he's coming off a huge week with no

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Speaker 1: real definitive change and how in the style that they're

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Speaker 1: going to play, plus an Indian, you know, beginning to

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Speaker 1: play the Indian and the Colts, And yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: that it's just correct and sometimes that those players are

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Speaker 1: just correct and all the numbers point in that direction

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Speaker 1: and that just makes sense and you should probably just

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Speaker 1: do it. And I'm with you, all right, if you're

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Speaker 1: looking for a cheaper end for a GPP play, what

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Speaker 1: direction are you looking? I kind of like Kaepernick face

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Speaker 1: the Saints. I've been saying this for a couple of

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Speaker 1: weeks because he's had some cupcake matchups, but you know,

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Speaker 1: he's running the ball and he's not the worst quarterback

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Speaker 1: in the world. He's out there, but you know, against

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Speaker 1: the Saints, anyone can be a QB one. So I

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Speaker 1: kind of like Kaepernick. Who do you like? Yeah, Kaepernick

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Speaker 1: is a guy. Um where my brother in La actually

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Speaker 1: texts me this morning, is I think your system's lowing Kaepernick,

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Speaker 1: which which has been something that I've been looking at today.

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Speaker 1: He's he's up there. It's just his skill set is

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Speaker 1: so poor that it's just I'm with you, he's cheap,

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Speaker 1: and that really what you're looking for in cheap quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: is a guy that is just facing a bad team

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Speaker 1: and can actually I love I mean personally, I love

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks for DFS that can scramble. So just because you know,

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Speaker 1: four to forty extra yards, it's just a passing touchdown.

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Speaker 1: And just if you figure more than half the quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: the league simply will never even come close to that number.

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Speaker 1: That gives you such a high floor. I don't mind

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Speaker 1: Foals coming in starting against Jacksonville. You know, I don't

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Speaker 1: love the Kansas City passing offense necessarily, so I probably

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Speaker 1: would go Kaepernick over Foles in that case. But if

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Speaker 1: you're getting a cheap quarterback that it's just kind of

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Speaker 1: is like in sort of fill in mode. And he's

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Speaker 1: only fifty two. It's not like Alex Smith has any

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Speaker 1: great shakes to begin with. Foles was competent when he

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Speaker 1: came in last week. Jacksonville still struggles against the past

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Speaker 1: to some degree. Casey's a pretty big favorite, and there

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Speaker 1: without so much of their running game, so I could

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Speaker 1: see him putting up a value number. I'm afraid of

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Speaker 1: Jalen Ramsey. I mean, he's been shutting people down this

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Speaker 1: whole Jacksonville Jaguars secondary. It's actually pretty good, so you know,

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Speaker 1: I thought about Foles for a little bit, and I

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Speaker 1: would definitely consider him because there's some upside there. It's

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Speaker 1: probably going to be a higher scoring game, and you know,

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Speaker 1: with Treck Andrick West taking over, we don't really know

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Speaker 1: what we're gonna get there, so there's some upside. But

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Speaker 1: I like kaepern better in that situation. Now, Marcus Mariota,

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Speaker 1: he isn't exactly cheap, but I love him this week.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he's been the second best fantasy quarterback over

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Speaker 1: the past four weeks. He gets a bad secondary missing

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Speaker 1: their best defensive player, Jason Barrett, so I'm definitely going

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Speaker 1: to have my shares there. I mean, he's been better

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Speaker 1: than Aaron Rodgers over the past four weeks. Well, it's

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Speaker 1: crazy too because he's another guy is whenever those are

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Speaker 1: the guys that I get excited about. You know, he

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Speaker 1: has two weeks where he has seven carries for over

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Speaker 1: sixty yards and back to back weeks. Now, you can't

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Speaker 1: count him on him for that kind of thing, but

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Speaker 1: he does fit that mold of you don't need to

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Speaker 1: throw forty passes as a thrower, where if you're going

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Speaker 1: to just run four to five times a game, right,

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Speaker 1: so you just make up almost ten to eleven attempts

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Speaker 1: of worth of passing just in that expectation. And then

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Speaker 1: and then on the upside of you things just can

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Speaker 1: get into the end zone where he doesn't really they

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Speaker 1: don't really design anything for him down close, but he

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Speaker 1: does have he has the athletic ability to get out

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Speaker 1: of the pocket and get there. So yeah, those kind

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Speaker 1: of guys, I am all. I am are system is

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Speaker 1: always trending to to guys like that because I don't

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Speaker 1: think people really calculate the amount of floor you get

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Speaker 1: when you can just when you can make things happen

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Speaker 1: with your legs. I am glad they're finally letting him

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Speaker 1: loose because last year it looked like they were just

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Speaker 1: going to keep him in the pocket and didn't make

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Speaker 1: sense because the guy can run well. These pocket passers especially,

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Speaker 1: excuse me, these these college runners that try to turn

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Speaker 1: in the pocket passers in the NFL. It typically doesn't

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Speaker 1: go perfectly because they need kind of both. The reason

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Speaker 1: you drafted them was on both skill sets. That's why

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Speaker 1: they look so good. And then when you try to

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Speaker 1: turn like you know, Robert Griffin or Mariota or you know,

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Speaker 1: these guys into just strictly pocket passers. It just doesn't

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Speaker 1: really fit like the thing that enticed you to them

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Speaker 1: to end the beginning, right, and so you just kind of,

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Speaker 1: I know, you, I know the reason they do it.

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Speaker 1: They're like, well, we don't want to get the guy killed.

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Speaker 1: You know, this is a prize asset, and we don't

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Speaker 1: need him scrambling and ended up like you know, Cam

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Speaker 1: with a concussion out for a couple weeks because he scrambled.

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Speaker 1: But you just kind of have to let them do

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Speaker 1: it because that's that's that's where their value is provided.

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Speaker 1: So I think it's probably it's a sophie's choice for teams,

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Speaker 1: but I'm I would much rather see them get out

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Speaker 1: and kind of run, all right, contraring cords, who do

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Speaker 1: you think could end up in the million dollar lineup

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Speaker 1: that no one's really looking at. It kind of goes

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Speaker 1: to where I see running back going. And the reason

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Speaker 1: I would kind of go contrarian is I can see

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Speaker 1: a guy like Dak this week going not highly owned

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Speaker 1: because you know, and I'm sure we're gonna talk about

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Speaker 1: it in a second, but Ezekiel Elliott I think will be.

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Speaker 1: So if you want to try to grab Dallas scoring

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Speaker 1: and fade the guy that probably will be higher owned.

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Speaker 1: I could see playing Dak in that situation if you

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Speaker 1: think that they just end up, if you think they

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Speaker 1: get there to their implied total through the air on

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Speaker 1: this one off chance and it's not Elliott. I think

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Speaker 1: you get both ways. Going for tournaments, you kind of

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Speaker 1: fade the chalk while grabbing some higher expectation from a

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Speaker 1: guy who's probably going to be very under owned. Doug.

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Speaker 1: I hadn't really thought about that, but I mean, I

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Speaker 1: think about it this way. If Ezekiel Elliott puts up

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Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty yards, he's not guaranteed any touchdowns,

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Speaker 1: and that's a lot of times the Cowboys are getting

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Speaker 1: there in the red zone. And so what if Dak

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Speaker 1: Prescott just gets himself three or four touchdowns. He doesn't

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Speaker 1: play a great game, but you know he ends up

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Speaker 1: with one hundred and ninety two hundred and twenty y

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Speaker 1: and four touchdowns. That could definitely happen because they're going

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Speaker 1: to put points on the board. So yeah, I like

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Speaker 1: that pick. I like it a lot. I hadn't thought

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Speaker 1: of it. Matthew Stafford is really interesting to me. And

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Speaker 1: before you guys call me crazy because look, he's he's

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Speaker 1: playing the Minnesota defense, but he's projected to finish eleventh

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Speaker 1: in in projected points by her system. His expert consensus

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Speaker 1: ranking is also the number eleven. Now get this, look

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Speaker 1: at his salary. His salary is sixteenth highest among quarterbacks.

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Speaker 1: So the Vikings looked vulnerable last week against a much

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Speaker 1: worse offense. So I think this is a good value here. Well,

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Speaker 1: you know it's funny. My business partner James Davis, who

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Speaker 1: does a lot of our NFL analysis as well, we

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Speaker 1: were talking about Stafford in particular, and one thing he

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Speaker 1: notices that Stafford's completion percentage year over year has actually

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Speaker 1: gotten better without Megatron. And it makes sense because he's

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Speaker 1: just throwing less, like he's not really built to throw

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Speaker 1: like that deep ball, but he is super accurate on

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Speaker 1: the short on the short possession stuff. And he just

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Speaker 1: has a group of receivers now that do that really well,

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Speaker 1: like Tate, I mean Bold into some degree and then

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Speaker 1: now getting Eric hebronback. So I he's one of those

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Speaker 1: guys that he's so he is so accurate that um,

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Speaker 1: he'll definitely go under owned. And I think he's personally

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Speaker 1: just a really good quarterback that just that just isn't

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Speaker 1: doing this one specific thing anymore, which is throwing the

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Speaker 1: ball deep. I'm glad to hear you say that, because

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Speaker 1: so many people give Matthew Stafford a hard time. The

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Speaker 1: guy's good, The guy's really good. I mean, asked the

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Speaker 1: Rams I was a Rams fan, I'm not anymore. Asked

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Speaker 1: the Rams fan if they would have loved to have

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Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford. I mean, he's put up some of the

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Speaker 1: best seasons in NFL history, and I think people don't

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Speaker 1: like him because of the way he throws. I honestly

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Speaker 1: think that like he throws, his throwing motion is so

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Speaker 1: weird looking and compared to most other quarterbacks, Like he

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Speaker 1: doesn't have a smooth delivery, and I think that sticks

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Speaker 1: in people's minds, and it shouldn't really, but I think

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Speaker 1: it just kind of hangs around because he again, he

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Speaker 1: doesn't throw that long. He's not gonna he doesn't gonna

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Speaker 1: throw that long just bomb down the field, hitting a

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Speaker 1: guy in shrine. But he just so pinpoint accurate, and

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Speaker 1: I just think people get thrown off by like what

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Speaker 1: they see with their eyes sometimes, and he's just the

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Speaker 1: guy that kind of I think just throws people off

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Speaker 1: that way. Yeah, I mean there's a reason he was

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Speaker 1: the first overall pick NFL teams. They're the guys that

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Speaker 1: get paid the big bucks to make these decisions. They

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Speaker 1: thought he was worthy of a number one overall pick.

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Speaker 1: He's a good quarterback. I also like Sam Bradford, another

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Speaker 1: number one overall pick. I like him for cash games.

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Speaker 1: Detroit's passing defense is just pathetic. So I wouldn't be

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Speaker 1: shocked at all. I would be shocked if if he

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Speaker 1: didn't nab fifteen points, which is good value for cash games.

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Speaker 1: So Sam Bradford, I wouldn't mind playing him. Now I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna be playing Aaron Rodgers. But I don't think he's

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Speaker 1: a bad option. No, Yeah, he's a guy too. He's

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Speaker 1: like sort of been that accurate camp of just guys

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Speaker 1: that could sort of flashy without being spectacular. Excuse me,

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Speaker 1: you know, good without being spectacular, And he just they

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Speaker 1: go Those guys tend to go over under owned because

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Speaker 1: they're they're rarely gonna put together these huge four touchdown

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Speaker 1: past weeks. But that's also priced in on them, right,

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Speaker 1: Like the guys that do have that upside are in

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Speaker 1: like the Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers category where you

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Speaker 1: know they're up in the over seven thou and these

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Speaker 1: guys that sort of hang around in the mid tier.

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Speaker 1: There are weeks where you can bust it out of

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Speaker 1: the box on those guys because it's priced in that

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Speaker 1: it's rarely going to happen, but it can happen. And

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Speaker 1: Bradford is accurate enough and has it just enough weapons,

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Speaker 1: they'll know they'll throw a little bit out of the

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Speaker 1: backfield too. So yeah, I don't mind him. He was

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Speaker 1: a guy actually in our system. I'm pretty sure early on,

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Speaker 1: if you didn't take Rogers, he was using Bradford. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if that's still the case now, but he

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Speaker 1: was a point being. He was. He was high up

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Speaker 1: in the points for dollar kind of spectrum. I'm also

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Speaker 1: intrigued by the offensive coordinator change. I mean, you don't

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Speaker 1: know what's going to happen there. They've got a new

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Speaker 1: offensive coordinator, and you don't know if they're just going

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Speaker 1: to throw the ball at Ton. Those guys can't run. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it was even crazy if they did. But what are

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Speaker 1: they gonna do? You know, who knows? It'll be interesting.

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Speaker 1: I want to talk about running backs now, and I

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Speaker 1: think it's pretty clear that you like Ezekiel Elliott this

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Speaker 1: week you kind of have to. I love Elliott, but

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Speaker 1: who do you like better, Zeke or Lebon bell Is

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Speaker 1: you're top projected back this week. I think it's really

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Speaker 1: hard to get away from Elliott, but only because there's

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Speaker 1: there's a couple of highly correlated things with running back performance. Well,

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Speaker 1: the first is obviously just touches, Like the highest correlation

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Speaker 1: is the amount of times you touch the ball is

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Speaker 1: going to directly correlate to your fantasy output. He I'm

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Speaker 1: pretty sure leads the league right now in touches per

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Speaker 1: game or carries per game, and the Cowboys don't seem

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Speaker 1: like they're going to be getting away from that. But

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Speaker 1: the other piece that correlates enough to it is Vegas

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Speaker 1: implied totals. Going in teams that are heavy favorites tend

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Speaker 1: to just historically run the ball more and right, it

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Speaker 1: makes sense that game script wise, they're winning, they want

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Speaker 1: to go home, and so if you combine those two

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Speaker 1: things for a guy like Elliott, he just is he'll

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Speaker 1: be the chalk play too, Like he's not sniffing and

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Speaker 1: he's not sneaking by anyone and under anyone's radar. At

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Speaker 1: this point, the Cowboys are run him a ton. That

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Speaker 1: is the only reason I think that's like the big

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Speaker 1: you know, whenever I'm looking to sort of just gut check,

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Speaker 1: sanity check, make sure this makes sense, and that is

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Speaker 1: the thing that I probably go toward Elliott over Bell

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Speaker 1: in this case. Yeah, I know most experts have them

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Speaker 1: neck and neck, but it's not even close. For I

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Speaker 1: haven't got Ezekiel Elliott. He's gonna torch Cleveland. Yeah. Bell

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Speaker 1: has been dynamic, but Baltimore suppressed is opposing running backs

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Speaker 1: to about eighty percent of their standard production. So I'm

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Speaker 1: not paying for that, excepting maybe a few GPP lineups.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Bell always has unbelievable upside, but for cash games,

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Speaker 1: like at his price going up against a good running defense,

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Speaker 1: I'm not buying it for what it's worth. I have

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Speaker 1: him about fifteen percent higher than Bell right now, so

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Speaker 1: I don't really have that. I'm with you, it's not

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Speaker 1: really close for us, even with the price dip on Bell.

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Speaker 1: I'm a little concerned too with the Steelers that even

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Speaker 1: with Roethlisberger back, the line hasn't really moved at all.

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Speaker 1: Like from open and I'm not sure if that line

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Speaker 1: was set with the idea of him coming back or

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Speaker 1: if it hasn't had time to correct. I mean, we're

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Speaker 1: not gonna can't call Vegas and ask like, hey, did

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Speaker 1: you guys said it with him playing or not right?

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Speaker 1: But the I'm a little concerned that they I believe

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Speaker 1: as of us talking right now, there's still Pittsburgh is

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Speaker 1: still underdogs to Baltimore, and so that has me that

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Speaker 1: seems wrong to me, makes me think that it hasn't

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Speaker 1: been totally corrected yet for him possibly playing. But it

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Speaker 1: would really need to massively correct for me to start

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Speaker 1: thinking about Bell, because this is a Vegas is something

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Speaker 1: we take in the mind with our modeling, and so

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Speaker 1: if we're to even get close, we would see need

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Speaker 1: to see some kind of massive like sort of like

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Speaker 1: even almost Yeah, it's just like a massive Vegas movement.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that's going to happen. So beyond to

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Speaker 1: Elliott and Bell, who is someone that you someone else

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Speaker 1: that you like that's not really cheap play? I mean

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Speaker 1: Jgi for the Dolphins, and I really I strove so

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Speaker 1: hard to say that name, and I've I just make

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Speaker 1: sure I'm saying correctly, but he's a guy where the

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Speaker 1: Dolphins has sort of been in this running back quagmire

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Speaker 1: most of the season. I mean, gosh, they've been doing

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Speaker 1: it for most of a couple of seasons now where

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Speaker 1: they just simply can't decide on a guy or they

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Speaker 1: just do these running back by committees, you can never tell.

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Speaker 1: They combine that with just losing a lot of games,

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Speaker 1: so you can never really tell what their ideas in

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Speaker 1: their running game. But over the last two weeks, even

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Speaker 1: forget the yards which have been unbelievable whatever, like over

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Speaker 1: two hundred yards is last two games, just the amount

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Speaker 1: of touches they've given him, that alone would push him

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Speaker 1: up into the up into the spectrum for me, right Like,

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Speaker 1: it makes it easier when you see that he's just

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Speaker 1: ripping off huge chunks in each of those games. That's

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Speaker 1: that's going to regress almost for sure. But his price

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Speaker 1: I don't think has caught up to the amount of

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Speaker 1: opportunity they're giving them if they're going to continue with

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Speaker 1: this thing, which is sure seems like it sure seemed

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Speaker 1: crazy if they didn't just at least make him the

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Speaker 1: de facto running back one until he was bad again, right,

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Speaker 1: so I can see him. Sometimes it's hard to play

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Speaker 1: these guys because you can remember them being cheap and

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Speaker 1: they're not cheap anymore, and then you just say, well,

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Speaker 1: I can't pay that much for Remember, I remember when

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Speaker 1: he was five thousand and now he's seventy one hundred

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Speaker 1: or whatever. But this that that is that is elite opportunity,

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Speaker 1: Like that's Ezekiel Elliott opportunity that he's getting. And that's

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Speaker 1: that's pretty hard to replicate, Doug. This is where we

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Speaker 1: have our first disagreement, big, big disagreement. At least, I'm

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Speaker 1: afraid of playing Jagie right now. And the reason why

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Speaker 1: I think he was getting that kind of those kind

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Speaker 1: of volume carries because of the defense he was going

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Speaker 1: up against. I don't think that they're stupid enough to

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Speaker 1: run the ball so much against Sheldon Richardson Muhamm with Wilkerson,

403
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Speaker 1: Leonard Williams. I mean, that is a great run defense

404
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Speaker 1: and they can't stop the pass whatsoever. Ryan Tannehill should

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Speaker 1: have no problem picking them apart. And he's Ryan Tannehill.

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Speaker 1: Now I want to be surprised if you know a

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Speaker 1: Jay and that's another hundred yard game but at that price,

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Speaker 1: you know, he's got to be one of the top

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Speaker 1: three or four running backs of the week to have

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Speaker 1: GPP value. And I just think there's a couple better

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Speaker 1: cash game valleys. I really like Elliot, and we're going

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Speaker 1: to talk about Trick Hedrick West later. I really like him.

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Speaker 1: There's two other guys I really like, So I'm avoiding

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Speaker 1: a GYI I'm not gonna fault you for playing him

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Speaker 1: because I mean, look, he's looked like a superstar, but

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Speaker 1: there's just a couple of guys I like a lot

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Speaker 1: more than him. Yeah. It's funny too, because with the

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Speaker 1: amount of carries we have him for, you would think

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Speaker 1: he would be he would be almost in that Elliot

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Speaker 1: range and Bell range, just because you know running backs

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Speaker 1: are typically pretty they all kind of regress to the

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Speaker 1: same means, most of them, not all of them, right,

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Speaker 1: But if you're just getting if you're getting that kind

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Speaker 1: of looks. The reason he is I have him for

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Speaker 1: a full six point six points under Elliott is that

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Speaker 1: Jets defense third or DVOA against the rush, they get it.

427
00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:06,919
Speaker 1: He gets a massive downgrade in our system with that.

428
00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:08,760
Speaker 1: And but like I said, the thing that keeps him

429
00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:13,760
Speaker 1: up there is just that projected opportunity based on just

430
00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:15,960
Speaker 1: based on sort of the last two games historical stuff.

431
00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:17,800
Speaker 1: Who do you who did you like be besides in

432
00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,800
Speaker 1: that same price range. I love Jonathan Stewart. I mean

433
00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:22,919
Speaker 1: he's just sixty four hundred. He's going up against the

434
00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:25,399
Speaker 1: Rams who don't know how to tackle. He looked really

435
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:27,560
Speaker 1: good against a much better defense. I mean, he was

436
00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:29,440
Speaker 1: one of my favorite running backs going into the season,

437
00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:31,639
Speaker 1: and since he came back from injury, he looks like

438
00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:33,400
Speaker 1: that guy. So I don't see why he's not gonna

439
00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:36,400
Speaker 1: have a big week this week. Obviously, we'll talk about

440
00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:39,800
Speaker 1: Chark Andrew West and I've got another one for you later,

441
00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:41,159
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna save it because he's kind of a

442
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:43,920
Speaker 1: contrarian play. Stewart's interesting. He was the guy always scared

443
00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:47,439
Speaker 1: me because the Panthers used Cam so much down on

444
00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:50,800
Speaker 1: the goal line where he Cam would almost you know,

445
00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:53,920
Speaker 1: snipe some of his his goal line usage because he

446
00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:56,000
Speaker 1: was just you know, just as big and strong as

447
00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:57,800
Speaker 1: Stewart and just might as well just but but that

448
00:19:57,880 --> 00:19:59,640
Speaker 1: has actually they've gone away from that a little bit,

449
00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:02,399
Speaker 1: and I Cam has run a little bit more lately.

450
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:05,840
Speaker 1: But They've leaned pretty heavily on Stuart. We have him

451
00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:08,600
Speaker 1: not as many points, but the opportunity for him is there.

452
00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:10,440
Speaker 1: I have a feeling, if I were to look back

453
00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:12,679
Speaker 1: into a system right now, we're probably low on his

454
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:16,480
Speaker 1: overall touchdown expectation because historically he just hasn't been a

455
00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:18,840
Speaker 1: big touchdown guy because of Cam. But they also have

456
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:20,479
Speaker 1: just said they don't want to use Cam as much

457
00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:22,920
Speaker 1: in those situations because of the concussion issues. So yeah,

458
00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:25,359
Speaker 1: he's an interesting play for sure. I'll say my other

459
00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:28,200
Speaker 1: guy now, it's Terrence West with the Ravens. And look,

460
00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:30,080
Speaker 1: I know there's talk about Canne Dickson getting in the

461
00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:32,400
Speaker 1: lineup and getting a lot more touches, and he probably will.

462
00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 1: He might get eight to ten touches this week, but

463
00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:36,760
Speaker 1: Terrence West is still a really good play there. The

464
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:39,760
Speaker 1: Ravens offensive line has been improving all season, and the

465
00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:44,720
Speaker 1: Steelers have been absolutely eaten alive by the run. I'll

466
00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:46,640
Speaker 1: love a bunch of running backs this week, but both

467
00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 1: of the West boys, they're probably my favorite, even above

468
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:51,560
Speaker 1: Stewart and Elliott. So how about cheaper guys. I mean,

469
00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:54,640
Speaker 1: obviously you've got the Tim high Tower, who is apparently

470
00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:56,080
Speaker 1: it's going to get a lot of carries this week

471
00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:59,480
Speaker 1: or Peyton barber antone smith whoever gets the carries for

472
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,400
Speaker 1: the buccaneer. So there's some mystery in those guys. They

473
00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:05,240
Speaker 1: could have some upside, But which cheaper end guys do

474
00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:07,639
Speaker 1: you really like? I mean, you mentioned him before, and

475
00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:10,359
Speaker 1: I suspect he'll be another chalk play as West if

476
00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:12,639
Speaker 1: we can get definitive news on where being out and

477
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:15,480
Speaker 1: where didn't practice today, And usually when the longer you

478
00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:18,200
Speaker 1: go with a concussion thing and don't practice, the more

479
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,160
Speaker 1: unlikely it gets that you're going to be just playing,

480
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:22,960
Speaker 1: and so he kind of ends up being last man standing.

481
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 1: I don't think that that's not anything close to a

482
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 1: secret at this point in the DFS community. So it'll

483
00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 1: probably be fifty percent owned if where's out? Oh, I

484
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:33,800
Speaker 1: think I think higher, actually, I mean, like, well, it's

485
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:35,400
Speaker 1: funny though I've been a little bit wrong on ownership

486
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:37,560
Speaker 1: percentages this year, so I'm not positive. But it really

487
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 1: stands to reason that he would be if he was,

488
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:41,280
Speaker 1: if he was such a great matchup. They do run

489
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:42,919
Speaker 1: the ball, they use them, they will throw to him

490
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:44,680
Speaker 1: a little bit. There's I'm gonna be honest, I'm not

491
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 1: trying to cop out, but there aren't a ton of

492
00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,920
Speaker 1: just cheaper running backs to me this week. It's it's

493
00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,760
Speaker 1: a situation where not a lot is opened up. You

494
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:55,359
Speaker 1: mentioned some of those running back by committees in Tampa

495
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 1: Bay was the one, and I can't remember the other

496
00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:00,480
Speaker 1: one you mentioned, But those things are just way too

497
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:04,240
Speaker 1: uncertain to really throw any kind of credence behind it.

498
00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:06,119
Speaker 1: Like same with High Tower. It's so hard to know

499
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,960
Speaker 1: what they're gonna do. They pulled Ingram after one fumble

500
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 1: last game, and it just kind of like it seemed

501
00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 1: like such a quick hook, which is a bad sign

502
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:15,400
Speaker 1: for Ingram. But and I also just I've never ever

503
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:18,440
Speaker 1: trusted anything Sean Payton's ever said to the media about

504
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:20,359
Speaker 1: like what his plans are for a team, like he

505
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:22,680
Speaker 1: just delibered. He just straight up lies, I would say,

506
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,199
Speaker 1: And now whatever, no one's you don't need to do

507
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:26,960
Speaker 1: a pants on fire kind of test on every coach.

508
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:28,399
Speaker 1: They're allowed to just say whatever they want if they

509
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:29,920
Speaker 1: think it's going to help him win the game. But

510
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:34,359
Speaker 1: I've I've long since just stopped believing whatever he says

511
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 1: is the team's plan for this week, because it just

512
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:38,639
Speaker 1: seems like more often than not, they just he just

513
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:40,440
Speaker 1: it's just not telling the truth, or they just change it.

514
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:42,000
Speaker 1: So I don't know. I just don't see a ton

515
00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:44,000
Speaker 1: of other Chief guys that are really jumping out to

516
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,480
Speaker 1: me this week. There's really only the one guy, Krik

517
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:48,879
Speaker 1: Andrick West with a ton of upside. He's going to

518
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,240
Speaker 1: be a workhorse against a bad running defense. I mean,

519
00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:54,000
Speaker 1: it's not like Trick Andrid West. He's your normal number

520
00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:57,639
Speaker 1: three running back. He's a system running back. The Chiefs

521
00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 1: are a system running team, and he's every bit is

522
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 1: dominant as Spencer wearing tombal Charles, which is ridiculous to say,

523
00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:07,680
Speaker 1: But you know, Andy Reid offenses, he's gonna be perfectly fine.

524
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 1: He's gonna get twenty plus touches. I think if you

525
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 1: don't start him, it's kind of the same situation as

526
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:14,560
Speaker 1: Davante Booker last week. You look, he didn't have the

527
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:16,639
Speaker 1: best game ever. But if you don't start him, I

528
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 1: don't know what you're doing. I don't know what you're

529
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:23,080
Speaker 1: looking at. Maybe it's a blind emission, but like, you

530
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 1: got to play this guy this week, right, you lose nothing,

531
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 1: but you lose nothing in cash game, fifty fifties style

532
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 1: game is by starting him because everyone well I think

533
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 1: Booker was something in like that eight percent range on

534
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,960
Speaker 1: both sites last week, maybe even higher on DraftKings, and

535
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 1: at that point you're just everyone's just playing with one

536
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 1: less slot, which is fine, right, Like, it doesn't really

537
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,000
Speaker 1: you don't. That is not the guy to go out

538
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 1: on a limb four and just stick your neck out

539
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 1: and say he's not going to do well because you

540
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:50,680
Speaker 1: really don't gain anything by the only time you gain

541
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:52,679
Speaker 1: it is in a tournament, and really actually in the tournament,

542
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:54,240
Speaker 1: I think you only gain it if he gets hurt

543
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:56,679
Speaker 1: because it's gonna be really horrid for him. And that

544
00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:58,399
Speaker 1: was sort of the story with Booker last week. He

545
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:00,399
Speaker 1: gets hurt and they sort of split carries and he

546
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:02,440
Speaker 1: just he didn't really end up looking that good anyway.

547
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 1: But m I just don't think you're this is just

548
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:08,720
Speaker 1: not the guy to sort of go contrari contraying on

549
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:10,879
Speaker 1: too much. If you're putting in multiple lineups, right, like,

550
00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 1: you need to have a certain percentage allocated to him

551
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 1: because that it's a correct chalk play. I mean, outside

552
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 1: of getting hurt. The worst case scenarios he gets like

553
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 1: fifteen carries for forty yards, you know what I mean,

554
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:23,960
Speaker 1: That's not bad. He'll probably get two receptions too. I mean,

555
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 1: that's not going to kill anybody. That That doesn't even

556
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:29,680
Speaker 1: take you out of the running in in a GPP contest.

557
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,160
Speaker 1: That's it's not terrible, and tons of people are gonna

558
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 1: be playing him. There's two others. One one guy, I'd

559
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 1: actually say one cheaper guy just before we move on,

560
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:39,160
Speaker 1: is actually theoretic on DraftKings, it doesn't look too bad.

561
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 1: He catches so many balls out of the backfield that

562
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:44,200
Speaker 1: he's just such a He's like, he's just a different

563
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:46,040
Speaker 1: kind of running back than most of their teams use

564
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:47,720
Speaker 1: with the way they throw. They throw him just almost

565
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:49,919
Speaker 1: like a wide receiver. So I'm not on FanDuel for me,

566
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 1: but on DraftKings, for five hundred more than West, if

567
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:54,400
Speaker 1: you want to just do a quick pivot, he's getting

568
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:56,439
Speaker 1: a lot. He is getting actually a decent amount of touches,

569
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,640
Speaker 1: and that PPR style really helps him there. He's got

570
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:01,639
Speaker 1: that big upside too. The one guy I wanted to

571
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 1: mention Darren Sprowl, same type of player, way too cheap.

572
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:08,440
Speaker 1: I wanted using him for cash games I'm FanDuel word DraftKings,

573
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 1: and I know, you know, you tend to use these

574
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:13,920
Speaker 1: these PPR running backs strictly for DraftKings. But his price

575
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,640
Speaker 1: on FanDuel, I mean he's probably gonna get that. Andy

576
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 1: has big upside, So I don't mind using Darren Sprowls.

577
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:21,760
Speaker 1: And then this is a guy who's burned me before.

578
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 1: But I can't help myself. I know the Minnesota Vikings

579
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:29,960
Speaker 1: offensive line is really bad, but just watch Jerrick McKinnon play.

580
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 1: He's a special talent. He's supposed to play, He's supposed

581
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 1: to be healthy this week. I wouldn't be shocked if

582
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:37,160
Speaker 1: he gets fifteen to twenty touches. And I know Asiata

583
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 1: is there to take goal line carries, but you know what,

584
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 1: maybe he breaks a big run or two and doesn't

585
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 1: need the goal line carries to put up one of

586
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:48,160
Speaker 1: the top five running back performances the week. So Jeric McKinnon,

587
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 1: I don't mind him at all in GPP I'm not

588
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:53,680
Speaker 1: gonna use him in a ton of lineups, but don't

589
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:55,880
Speaker 1: be shocked if he's in the million dollars lineup this week.

590
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 1: I've our system has burned us a lot on the

591
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 1: on the Vikings running back. So I'm right with you,

592
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:03,520
Speaker 1: Like I've played just about every we've made the they

593
00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:07,159
Speaker 1: just underperformed every single time I played McKinnon on his

594
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,680
Speaker 1: down week. I played a Seattle last week, and yeah,

595
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 1: so I'm right with you in the old we can

596
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 1: be sort of support group for guys who have been

597
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 1: burned by Minnesota running backs. But if I knew he

598
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:18,159
Speaker 1: was gonna get in that fifteen touch category, I think

599
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:20,320
Speaker 1: he'd probably trend up into the system a little bit more.

600
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 1: I'm just so scared of doing it at this point.

601
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 1: That is, it might be just because I'm being like

602
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 1: a little two results oriented on him, all right, with

603
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:31,640
Speaker 1: Big Ben coming back, do you think Antonio Brown severely underpriced? Yeah? Right,

604
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 1: Like he's still he's i think third in the league

605
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 1: still in targets per game, and that was with two

606
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 1: weeks of no Roethlisberger and so, and he spent those

607
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 1: two weeks kind of just doing nothing and not being owned.

608
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 1: And I'm not in the guts of how FanDuel and

609
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:50,840
Speaker 1: DraftKings create their pricing algorithms. I would really suspect it's

610
00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 1: based on production and ownership as to how you know,

611
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 1: sort of guys are priced and when those two things

612
00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 1: don't happhim for a guy, he just dipped down like

613
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:01,120
Speaker 1: he was ten thousand two weeks ago or three weeks ago,

614
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 1: and he's you know, under nine thousand on both sites. Now,

615
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 1: if if Rothlosberger's back there, I just don't see how

616
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,880
Speaker 1: you cannot play him in cash games like at eighty

617
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:14,439
Speaker 1: nine hundred on Draft Kings. Again, he was fifteen percent

618
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 1: more like twelve percent more just two weeks ago and

619
00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 1: nothing else has changed except he got his quarterback back.

620
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 1: I don't care if they're playing Seattle. I don't care

621
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 1: if they're playing Minnesota. If he's under nine thousand with

622
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,920
Speaker 1: Big Ben in the lineup, you better believe that I'm

623
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:30,680
Speaker 1: playing him. There's there is no chance he's going to

624
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 1: be outside of my lineup. Big Ben might not be

625
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,879
Speaker 1: one hundred percent health, he's probably not, But I just

626
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:39,560
Speaker 1: don't see Baltimore stopping big Ben. In Antonio Brown's connection,

627
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 1: they just have something going on there and they're fairly

628
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,199
Speaker 1: easy to pass against as it is. Yeah, I just

629
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:46,399
Speaker 1: don't see this is just one of those perfect opportunities.

630
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,920
Speaker 1: This is where I actually hope sometimes and DFS news

631
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:53,439
Speaker 1: cycles or information is so prevalent at this point that

632
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:55,679
Speaker 1: it's really hard to sort of miss news on this stuff.

633
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:57,280
Speaker 1: This is where I sort of hope that people just

634
00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 1: go back and look at game logs and like, oh,

635
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:01,400
Speaker 1: something's wrong with Brown and not realize the full context

636
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:04,639
Speaker 1: of the play here because I just don't. Again, this

637
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 1: is harder in football because the players pool is so

638
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 1: small and most outfits, you know, like your your report,

639
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 1: you have a why, you have a good listening audience

640
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 1: and readership, and so do we. But everyone's just kind

641
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 1: of writing about these things at this point. And that's

642
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 1: the only reason. I'm just thinking he'll probably end up

643
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:19,679
Speaker 1: being a chalk play as well, because that's just not

644
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:21,800
Speaker 1: gonna be and under the radar thing, he's still great.

645
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:24,160
Speaker 1: This is still the same team, and he's just such

646
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 1: a such a target hog that you just kind of

647
00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 1: have to do it all right, Doug, And are there

648
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,679
Speaker 1: any low priced plays that listeners could sneak into their

649
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:32,399
Speaker 1: lineup to save some money. The one thing I'm going

650
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 1: to be keeping track of is the wide receiver situation

651
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 1: in San Diego right now. Williams and Benjamin are both

652
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 1: haven't been practicing this week, and that's a really beat

653
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 1: up wide receiver corps for a team that does like

654
00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 1: the throw, and they have actually a really good quarterback.

655
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:49,040
Speaker 1: Rivers is very good, So I could see Dontrell Imman

656
00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 1: just sneaking up into some value if they were too.

657
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 1: Even if one of those guys was banged up, I

658
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 1: would probably increase his target share, and if both, I

659
00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 1: would probably significantly increase it because they'd be really really

660
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 1: short handed. And He's he's about the minimum I used

661
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 1: thirty one DraftKings, not the total minimum, but about us

662
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 1: cheap us. I'll ever see a wide receiver, but again,

663
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 1: that's gonna be injury dependent, Like I just gonna need

664
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 1: to keep the news out for the next couple days

665
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 1: to see what happens with those guys. I like that

666
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 1: call a lot. Two weeks ago, when Mark He's Goodwin

667
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 1: had the long touchdown catch, I snuck him into my

668
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 1: lineup for the same reason. He was the only wide

669
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 1: receiver going and it and it worked out. I liked

670
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 1: those situations. I'll definitely be keeping an eye on that one.

671
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 1: I hadn't really given it much thought for me. Brian

672
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 1: Quick has at least fifty yards in five straight games.

673
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:35,640
Speaker 1: This week, he gets the bad Panthers secondary, so I

674
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 1: don't mind using him in cash games. He seems pretty

675
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 1: reliable at this point. Michael Thomas is still way too

676
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 1: cheap too for GPP Marky's Lee. He has the recency

677
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 1: buyas going up against him after so many people played

678
00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:50,160
Speaker 1: him last week, so he should be low owned, and

679
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 1: he's still very good. He's too cheap. You know, you

680
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 1: took the quick. I was gonna say quick too. I

681
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 1: was I'm gonna throw a tabe on Austin into that

682
00:29:57,640 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 1: group too, like the quick Austin sort of those guys

683
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 1: I'm afraid of Austin may well believe me. I I

684
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 1: this is the old holds and click the button kind

685
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 1: of thing with him. I don't. I have no great

686
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 1: faith in him. Well, there's there's a certain class of

687
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 1: players we called we joke. It's like always on the

688
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:16,160
Speaker 1: wrong week, guys like we'll just play him, Like he

689
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 1: goes seven from fifty nine. I kind of like him.

690
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 1: The next week I play him, he goes three for

691
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 1: twenty four. Then I hate him. Then he goes ten

692
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 1: for fifty seven. You know, I mean so like it's

693
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 1: just one of those things. I just cannot see him

694
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:26,680
Speaker 1: to pick him on the right week, but he and

695
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:29,640
Speaker 1: Quick are sort of in that same range to me together,

696
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 1: I liked them both. I'm totally with you on Thomas,

697
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 1: where he's just sort of become that possession guy in

698
00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 1: New Orleans has a nice match up. The price hasn't

699
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 1: really climbed up at all. So yeah, there's a couple

700
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:41,000
Speaker 1: of these cheaper guys. I really want to keep an

701
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,840
Speaker 1: eye too, and just in terms of just making sure

702
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 1: we're following up with news is what's going on in

703
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 1: Green Bay because that situation actually probably dictates most of

704
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:54,200
Speaker 1: my cash game strategy this week. If I knew, like

705
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 1: if everyone got full bills of health, I would be

706
00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 1: totally fine having Cobb in Montgomery back in there, and

707
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:02,160
Speaker 1: I would probably downgrade Jordy a little bit, and a

708
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 1: guy like Adams, I'd be really inclined to play as

709
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 1: many combinations of green Bay wide receivers as possible. But

710
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 1: at this point, I mean, this is on Thursday, but

711
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 1: we're talking, but it's really hard to know they're starting

712
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 1: to practice. But if they're just kind of all they're

713
00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 1: all in the mix right now, and it's just kind

714
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 1: of unclear about who the guy or guys are going

715
00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 1: to be. You know, I've had two people ask me

716
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 1: this question. It's a really weird question to get asked twice,

717
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:29,960
Speaker 1: but people wanted to know who Michael Thomas could be, Like,

718
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 1: what's his upside? Who's his comp He's a Demarries Thomas clone.

719
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 1: This guy is really really good and he's got Drew

720
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 1: Brees as his quarterback. I mean he is. If it

721
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,640
Speaker 1: weren't for Ezekiel Elliot and Dak Brescott just having unbelievable

722
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 1: rookie seasons, we'd be talking about him. It's having one

723
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 1: of the best rookie seasons in recent memory. Yeah, he's

724
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:53,080
Speaker 1: been great, and he's just such a possession guy, which

725
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 1: really plays his Breeze of strength. I mean, Cooks will spread,

726
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:58,720
Speaker 1: Will kind of spread the field, but spread him down field.

727
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 1: But Thomas has been sort of that underneath kind of

728
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 1: outpass guy that Breeze kind of thrives with. And he's

729
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 1: just so steady every week. You know, just the target

730
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 1: chair is there, it's not the target chair. Plus the

731
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:17,560
Speaker 1: just overall production through the receptions have been steady enough

732
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 1: that and his price just doesn't see in the move

733
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 1: every week. It just is exactly the same it's like

734
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 1: fifty five hundred every single week, and every single week,

735
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 1: and all our systems saying play him again, play him again.

736
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 1: The targets are there, play him again. So yeah, I

737
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 1: really like his makeup is great. He's perfect for Guiley Breese.

738
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 1: One other guy I want to mention that's cheap Kendall Wright.

739
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 1: He's pretty clear he's emerges Mariota's most reliable guy, and

740
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:41,000
Speaker 1: Mariota's bawling lately as we talked about. So I wouldn't

741
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 1: mind slipping Kendall right in there. Now. I know he

742
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:45,680
Speaker 1: hasn't historically been very good, but just look at the

743
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 1: past couple of weeks. He's being used and he's he's

744
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 1: doing his job. So Cash Games don't mind playing him either.

745
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:53,880
Speaker 1: The only issue I have with Right is he's been

746
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 1: He's great when he's on the field. He's just not

747
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 1: on the field a lot. Like his snap counts are

748
00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 1: really low. He's not in their base set wide receiver package,

749
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:02,520
Speaker 1: which is so weird because when he comes in they

750
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:04,840
Speaker 1: actually do throw to him a lot. Like three weeks ago,

751
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 1: he only played twenty two snaps and went eight for

752
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 1: one thirty three. That's about as good as you can

753
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 1: ever be on only twenty two snaps, and so I

754
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:13,800
Speaker 1: get it's one of those things like I wish he

755
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:16,440
Speaker 1: just played more, right, Like if he played fifty snaps

756
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 1: a game or something, his upside would be tremendous. He's

757
00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 1: just not in those bass. He's not in those bass

758
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 1: like first and second down running sets, and that's the

759
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 1: only thing that worries me about him. All right, Doug,

760
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 1: So which other price you wide receivers do you see

761
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 1: returning value this week? I kind of don't, to be

762
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 1: honest with you, I really don't like anything that's going on.

763
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 1: The Thursday game gets wiped out, so you kind of

764
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 1: just wipe Evans and Jones out if you're not if

765
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:39,600
Speaker 1: we're talking mostly mainslate and those two guys are big,

766
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 1: and I think Jones is pretty healthy, so you know,

767
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 1: those guys just sort of get taken out of the

768
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 1: mix and after that they're just really aren't. Like Odell

769
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 1: Beckham's got a bad matchup. We talked about how there's

770
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 1: a question marks around Jordy Nelson because mostly just because

771
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 1: the team coming back. Amari Cooper's in a bad matchup

772
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:57,480
Speaker 1: coming off a big week. He can't trust Cooks his target.

773
00:33:57,560 --> 00:34:00,480
Speaker 1: So I kind of hate saying no one, but I

774
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:03,959
Speaker 1: am just not feeling this upper tier. I'm much more

775
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 1: inclined to pay a quarterback and running back this week.

776
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:08,399
Speaker 1: For sure. I'm in the same area as you, Dug,

777
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 1: like I look at it, and it was hard for

778
00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 1: me to answer this question. I always prepare some notes,

779
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:15,279
Speaker 1: and you know, I think Dez is an all right

780
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 1: GPP option. He's always got some big games in him,

781
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:20,280
Speaker 1: so I wouldn't mind playing him. Like you've said before

782
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:23,640
Speaker 1: on this podcast, though, anyone's a good GPP option any week.

783
00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:25,520
Speaker 1: You never know what's going to happen. Some crazy guy

784
00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 1: could break out and and JJ Nelson go nuts. So

785
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:32,440
Speaker 1: of course Dez can do it. But I'm still afraid

786
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 1: to use Daz in cash games. There's no way I'm

787
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:36,279
Speaker 1: doing it. Well, he was the guy that he was

788
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:38,719
Speaker 1: a guy that would go with my Prescott oh the

789
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 1: Prescott tournament fade or if you're going to fade, Elliott,

790
00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:43,879
Speaker 1: that was That is the stack that I would put together,

791
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:46,520
Speaker 1: would be Dez and Dak excuse me, yeah, doesn't Dac

792
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:49,879
Speaker 1: and I just you can't trust them from a cash

793
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:52,840
Speaker 1: game perspective, I don't think because it's not a great matchup,

794
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:55,880
Speaker 1: especially if Hayden's back. But what do you think? What

795
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:57,399
Speaker 1: do you think a Jarvis land because I know you've

796
00:34:57,400 --> 00:35:01,319
Speaker 1: sort of liked not going against the Jets run game

797
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 1: and more into the pass game. Do you like him

798
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:04,360
Speaker 1: this week? I do like him. Yeah, I was just

799
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 1: about to mention him. Jarvis Landry and Damarius Thomas they

800
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:08,799
Speaker 1: see him like pretty good bets this week. I mean,

801
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:10,840
Speaker 1: I can't really see either of them going off and

802
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:12,760
Speaker 1: being one of the top two or three wide receivers.

803
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:14,800
Speaker 1: But like I said, if J. J. Nelson can do it,

804
00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 1: sure Jarvis Landry can do it. I wouldn't be surprised

805
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 1: if he nets himself ten or eleven receptions and ends

806
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:22,920
Speaker 1: up one of the top five or six wide receivers

807
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:25,319
Speaker 1: of the week. So yeah, I think in cash games,

808
00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 1: if you've got that kind of money left to spend,

809
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:29,839
Speaker 1: put put Jarvis Landry in there. I don't think it's

810
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 1: a bad call. I want to. I wish I could

811
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 1: see he was such a big card guy earlier in

812
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:35,920
Speaker 1: the season, and I thought it was going to sort

813
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 1: of continue with Brandon Marshall and it kind of dropped off.

814
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 1: He's still among the leaders and targets. I wish he

815
00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:43,799
Speaker 1: was more consistent. He was a double digit target guy

816
00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 1: for a couple of weeks, I think in a row,

817
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 1: and then it's sort of trailed off. So he's a

818
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:50,480
Speaker 1: guy I wish that they would kind of lean on

819
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 1: more in the passing game, and I would probably like

820
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 1: him a little bit, but it just kind of hasn't

821
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 1: been there the last couple of weeks. If I thought

822
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 1: they were going to trend back that way, I still

823
00:35:57,080 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 1: like him because they well, he is just he's a

824
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:00,759
Speaker 1: very good receiver and he's a great possession guy, but

825
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:02,440
Speaker 1: they just can't seem to get in the ball enough.

826
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:04,279
Speaker 1: I was going to say the same kind of thing

827
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:06,239
Speaker 1: about Brandon Marshall. I was going to put him in

828
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:08,440
Speaker 1: this talk because I think it's a pretty good matchup

829
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 1: for him. But the thing is Ryan Fitzpatrick. If you

830
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 1: watch the hit last week, you can almost be certain

831
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 1: that Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing with concussion this week. And

832
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 1: the only reason he's doing it is because he knows

833
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:21,799
Speaker 1: if he goes to the bench, he's never starting another

834
00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 1: game in the NFL, So he's gonna be playing with

835
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:26,759
Speaker 1: a concussion, and you know he's gonna be chucking up

836
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 1: balls to Brandon Marshall, and Brandon Marshall's gonna make some plays.

837
00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:31,800
Speaker 1: But I just don't think that a big week is

838
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:33,759
Speaker 1: coming for him, you know what I mean? No, Yeah,

839
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:35,719
Speaker 1: I don't think you can trust it. And they just

840
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 1: have struggled so much in the passing game because they

841
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:41,279
Speaker 1: just have bad quarterbacks. Basically, like when you're when you're

842
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 1: flopping over to Geno Smith and then having to go

843
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 1: back to Ryan Fitzpatrick. That's pretty much says all you

844
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:48,080
Speaker 1: need to know about your quarterback situation. Jets fans know

845
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:50,759
Speaker 1: that more than anybody. So it's just it's a good,

846
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 1: good receiver stuck in a bad offense. And that's the

847
00:36:53,239 --> 00:36:56,440
Speaker 1: unfortunate part with Marshall. All right, let's talk contran plays

848
00:36:56,440 --> 00:36:58,279
Speaker 1: at wide receiver. Who's someone that could have a huge

849
00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 1: week that no one's really talking about. I think to

850
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:03,000
Speaker 1: go contrari in this week, you actually need to take

851
00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 1: these very good receivers in bad matchups, like a Beckham

852
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:09,520
Speaker 1: or a Cooper. I don't I'm not saying it's anything

853
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 1: close to safe, but Cooper and Beckham are elite talent guys,

854
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:15,959
Speaker 1: and yes, the matchups are very bad against Philly in Denver.

855
00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 1: But you can be darn shure no one is going

856
00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:22,280
Speaker 1: to play these guys. So but again, these are high target,

857
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:25,960
Speaker 1: elite level wide receivers and those guys can have good

858
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 1: games against good defenses. So I don't wouldn't do it

859
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:31,439
Speaker 1: over Brown for cash, but that would be that would

860
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:33,360
Speaker 1: be the exact way I would flip for a tournament

861
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:36,880
Speaker 1: because no one's gonna no one's gonna be on a

862
00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:38,920
Speaker 1: guy like Beckham, and he does have huge game upside,

863
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:41,839
Speaker 1: it's just not like totally likely because the matchup. That's

864
00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:43,800
Speaker 1: a good way to put it. I see, I'm like

865
00:37:43,960 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 1: everybody else. I was not thinking about those guys at all,

866
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:48,160
Speaker 1: just because I looked at it and I said, the matchup,

867
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:49,880
Speaker 1: it's not a good bet, I'm not playing it. But

868
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:54,600
Speaker 1: in GPP, it's all about finding value, and value comes

869
00:37:54,640 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 1: from low ownership. And so you know, if you've got

870
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:02,200
Speaker 1: a four percent chance at Odell Beckham going off, and

871
00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 1: it's probably higher in four percent, it's probably around fifteen percent,

872
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:08,400
Speaker 1: and he's only owned in you know, eight percent of leagues,

873
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:12,000
Speaker 1: that's a good value. That is a good investment for GPP.

874
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 1: Now it's different in cash games. But you know, I

875
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 1: could see that that makes sense. The guys I had

876
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 1: written down Stefon Diggs. I don't know if he's exactly

877
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:22,399
Speaker 1: a contrarian play, but he's kind of fallen off the map.

878
00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:26,120
Speaker 1: They get Detroit, who's secondary to a train wreck. And now,

879
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:28,440
Speaker 1: like I said, the Vikings have a new offensive coordinator

880
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 1: who hopefully won't be as conservative. Then you've got Travis Benjamin, who,

881
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:35,080
Speaker 1: like you said, he's banged up so a lot of

882
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:37,760
Speaker 1: people aren't playing it because of that. And he's always

883
00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:40,120
Speaker 1: capable of the huge game. He hasn't been doing it lately,

884
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:44,000
Speaker 1: but he's a playmaker, so I wouldn't be surprised if

885
00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:46,919
Speaker 1: he puts together, you know, an eight yard touchdown catch

886
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 1: against a hapless Titan secondary. You know, I Digs is

887
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:52,320
Speaker 1: a guy that actually is in the current form of

888
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 1: optimal lineups, and I suspect these stays. So I'm right

889
00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 1: totally unlocked up with you on him. His targets trended

890
00:38:57,680 --> 00:38:59,840
Speaker 1: up a little bit last week, partly because of the

891
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:02,279
Speaker 1: play because they were playing from behind. Also, they were

892
00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 1: banged up in wide receiver, so he just got more looks.

893
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 1: He was getting those looks that we were kind of

894
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:07,800
Speaker 1: counting on from early in the season that it trailed

895
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:10,600
Speaker 1: off a little bit. He's a guy that is firmly

896
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 1: in that value camp for me in sixty five hundred

897
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 1: on FanDuel right now when we're hitting, you know, calculate

898
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:17,800
Speaker 1: on these lineups. He's he's just in the lineups, and

899
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:20,719
Speaker 1: usually guys in that price point now don't shift out,

900
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:23,239
Speaker 1: So I suspect I'm probably almost definitely playing him on something,

901
00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:25,480
Speaker 1: all right, Doug moving over to tight end with all

902
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 1: the other top tight ends on buys besides Olson, does

903
00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:30,480
Speaker 1: he become like a must playing cash games this week?

904
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:32,600
Speaker 1: I get so worried when I see games like he

905
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:35,880
Speaker 1: had last game with the one catch, and I know,

906
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:38,800
Speaker 1: I think sometimes I probably overcorrect for things like that

907
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 1: when historically he's just been you know, just I think

908
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:43,279
Speaker 1: he's a third in the league or second in the

909
00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 1: league in targets for tight end this season, and it

910
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 1: probably shouldn't let one game sway me. But it just

911
00:39:48,160 --> 00:39:51,120
Speaker 1: really worries me with like really expensive guys like Olsen

912
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 1: to just have a one catch game, it's just not

913
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:56,480
Speaker 1: something if you if you roster him with one catch,

914
00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:58,920
Speaker 1: you're just kind of dead and because that's just too

915
00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:02,279
Speaker 1: much salary to to allocate to a zero basically. So

916
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:06,080
Speaker 1: that's the only reason that I'm just not as excited

917
00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 1: about him. And maybe that's just me being too recency

918
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 1: bias on this kind of thing. So I don't know,

919
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 1: that's the only reason that I'm just not head over

920
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:15,600
Speaker 1: heels in love with them, even though clearly talent wise,

921
00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:18,760
Speaker 1: he's the best guy at tight end. It's really bizarre

922
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 1: that that happened. I mean, Arizona's defense is obviously a

923
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:23,759
Speaker 1: different kind of story than he's facing this week at

924
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:27,440
Speaker 1: Los Angeles, and you know, Los Angeles has a good defense,

925
00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:29,640
Speaker 1: but it's good at rushing the pastors. So when a

926
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:31,520
Speaker 1: quarterback's under pressure, a lot of times he's going to

927
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:33,760
Speaker 1: dump it off to the tight end. I know Olsen's

928
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:36,879
Speaker 1: not your typical tight end, but you know, I'm looking

929
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:39,280
Speaker 1: at the receptions that he's been getting throughout the season.

930
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 1: His lowest total besides this one was was five against

931
00:40:43,200 --> 00:40:44,920
Speaker 1: San Francisco, and he had one hundred and twenty two

932
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:48,440
Speaker 1: yards and a touchdown. Last week was terrible. You're right,

933
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:52,880
Speaker 1: but tight ends are so bad this year and especially

934
00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:56,040
Speaker 1: this week, that I'm definitely playing Greg Olson, So go

935
00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:59,239
Speaker 1: ahead and do your recency bias thing. I'm gonna have

936
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 1: Greg Olson, and and I have a feeling that it's

937
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:04,080
Speaker 1: so funny because likely you're correct, right, Like this is

938
00:41:04,160 --> 00:41:07,080
Speaker 1: where personally and I always advise people against this, And

939
00:41:07,120 --> 00:41:08,800
Speaker 1: then there are times where I fall a victim to

940
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:11,120
Speaker 1: it myself, where I just I look too much on

941
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:14,480
Speaker 1: just one sample piece and let it dictate sort of

942
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:16,440
Speaker 1: even even to some of the projections, like we have

943
00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:18,879
Speaker 1: him as the highest overall projected to tight end this week.

944
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:21,960
Speaker 1: So but it's likely that we're just not high enough,

945
00:41:22,040 --> 00:41:24,880
Speaker 1: and it probably is likely correct. And actually you're probably

946
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 1: getting nice separation because people like like dumb dumbs like

947
00:41:27,160 --> 00:41:28,799
Speaker 1: me are going to like just look at look at

948
00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:31,759
Speaker 1: it too, to that recent thing and just sort of

949
00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:34,200
Speaker 1: be off of him. But yeah, no, I mean, clearly

950
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 1: from from raw points, he is the highest guy on

951
00:41:37,120 --> 00:41:40,279
Speaker 1: our system. I just like I said, I just get worried. Yeah,

952
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:42,040
Speaker 1: he's the highest guy in our system too, but it's

953
00:41:42,080 --> 00:41:44,759
Speaker 1: not by that much. It's actually not by more than

954
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:48,319
Speaker 1: the percentage he is above salary. So you know, maybe

955
00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:51,279
Speaker 1: he's not the best value play. But um, I'm just

956
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 1: I'm not fond of the Lanny Walker this week. I'm

957
00:41:54,560 --> 00:41:56,800
Speaker 1: not especially fond of Jimmy Graham this week at his

958
00:41:56,920 --> 00:42:00,560
Speaker 1: price point. Travis kells um the Jaguars reactly really good

959
00:42:00,600 --> 00:42:03,400
Speaker 1: as defending the tight end. So I don't know. I

960
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:05,680
Speaker 1: like Greg Olson. Now there's a few cheaper plays I

961
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:08,640
Speaker 1: really like. So let's talk about some of those cheaper plays, Doug,

962
00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 1: who do you think it? Contrarian plays that could sneak

963
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:12,719
Speaker 1: into the million dollar lineup this week? And now we

964
00:42:12,800 --> 00:42:14,239
Speaker 1: were saying this, James and I were talking about the

965
00:42:14,239 --> 00:42:16,200
Speaker 1: Sair Day and we were saying that this feels like

966
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:19,080
Speaker 1: tight end Roulette basically, right, you're just kind of like

967
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:22,319
Speaker 1: you're kind of you have all these guys that are

968
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 1: stuck right around the same price point. They have all

969
00:42:24,880 --> 00:42:27,120
Speaker 1: sort of around the same opportunity. None of them are

970
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:30,440
Speaker 1: particularly great. And there's been a couple of weeks where

971
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:33,120
Speaker 1: this tight end spot, especially on Fan Duel, where they're

972
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:36,399
Speaker 1: all price really really close. They just if you kind

973
00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:38,279
Speaker 1: of miss on one and someone else hits like that

974
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:40,400
Speaker 1: can be the kind of the difference. And so I

975
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 1: like Gates in this category because it's sort of along

976
00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:46,320
Speaker 1: the same San Diego is banged up, He's seen nineteen

977
00:42:46,400 --> 00:42:48,360
Speaker 1: targets over the last two weeks. Now, he hasn't converted

978
00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:50,279
Speaker 1: any of them like he's converted. I think only nine

979
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 1: catches out of the nineteen. Now, that's really way below

980
00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:57,160
Speaker 1: his historic conversion rate. And I think it's for two reasons.

981
00:42:57,280 --> 00:42:59,879
Speaker 1: One is because they're so banged up at wide receiver hunter.

982
00:43:00,160 --> 00:43:02,439
Speaker 1: I don't think it's coming back either this week. They've

983
00:43:02,480 --> 00:43:04,080
Speaker 1: had to sort of force the ball to him. So

984
00:43:04,400 --> 00:43:06,719
Speaker 1: not all targets are created the same summer, just bad

985
00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:10,200
Speaker 1: passes or just bad situations. And but nineteen targets for

986
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:13,839
Speaker 1: a guy is a crazy amount. Now, it doesn't again,

987
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:15,520
Speaker 1: if you only look at the game logs, it doesn't.

988
00:43:15,560 --> 00:43:17,840
Speaker 1: The game logs are very underwhelming. It's like four catches

989
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:19,960
Speaker 1: and five catches or yeah, four for thirty three, five

990
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 1: for thirty eight. That's pretty bad. But man, those nineteen

991
00:43:23,960 --> 00:43:26,359
Speaker 1: twenty six percent and sixteen percent target share for him

992
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 1: has me probably as the guy I'm gonna play in

993
00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:31,759
Speaker 1: cash games. He's so good in the red zone two

994
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:34,480
Speaker 1: and Tennessee's bad against tight ends. So, yeah, Gates is

995
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:36,120
Speaker 1: one of my guys. That's why I was pumped up

996
00:43:36,120 --> 00:43:38,240
Speaker 1: when you were talking about him. I also like Charles

997
00:43:38,360 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 1: Clay just because Buffalo doesn't have anybody and they're gonna

998
00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:43,480
Speaker 1: probably be throwing the ball quite a bit this week.

999
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:46,160
Speaker 1: And then Austin Hooper, who I've talked about I talked

1000
00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:49,560
Speaker 1: about last show. When Austin hooper Man, when he plays,

1001
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:51,880
Speaker 1: he is really efficient. I don't know how that's going

1002
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:54,279
Speaker 1: to look on a full game scale, but he's gonna

1003
00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:56,520
Speaker 1: get the he's gonna get the snaps this week. It's

1004
00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:59,560
Speaker 1: a good matchup for him, and I don't know, I

1005
00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:02,239
Speaker 1: guess it's when when this show airs, it's going to

1006
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:06,320
Speaker 1: be too late, but Austin Hooperman going forward in fantasy,

1007
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:08,799
Speaker 1: he could win this job and he could end up

1008
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:10,680
Speaker 1: being a tight end one the rest of the season. Yeah,

1009
00:44:10,719 --> 00:44:13,040
Speaker 1: that's a great passing offense for him too. And it's

1010
00:44:13,040 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 1: just this tight end I can't keep its. Sorry to

1011
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:17,680
Speaker 1: keep saying, but it's just it really just feels like

1012
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:20,399
Speaker 1: it's the position I least like rostering on a given week.

1013
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:22,680
Speaker 1: And that includes like kicker sometimes or just kind of

1014
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:25,280
Speaker 1: like willing to let game totals in form my decision,

1015
00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:27,799
Speaker 1: but tight end, it's just it's not been very it's

1016
00:44:27,800 --> 00:44:29,359
Speaker 1: just been it's just been a bad position this year.

1017
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:31,640
Speaker 1: I don't actually don't don't mind Eric Ebron. He was

1018
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:33,399
Speaker 1: he got a these amount of looks last year. Last

1019
00:44:33,440 --> 00:44:35,160
Speaker 1: week coming back for his first week back after a

1020
00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:37,520
Speaker 1: couple of weeks being on the shelf with injury. Like

1021
00:44:37,600 --> 00:44:40,680
Speaker 1: we said, with Stafford's a pretty accurate passer. If Stafford,

1022
00:44:40,760 --> 00:44:42,399
Speaker 1: if he takes over like more of that an Kuon

1023
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:44,840
Speaker 1: Bolden roll of the possession guy, which seemed like he

1024
00:44:44,960 --> 00:44:48,040
Speaker 1: was going to, then he's a guy that could actually

1025
00:44:48,200 --> 00:44:50,440
Speaker 1: probably have a nice little floor. He's an athlete and

1026
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:52,719
Speaker 1: he just is a pretty good He's a pretty good

1027
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:54,400
Speaker 1: tight end when he plays. It's just an injury has

1028
00:44:54,440 --> 00:44:56,799
Speaker 1: been in the concern with him. All right, Doug, let's

1029
00:44:56,880 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 1: move over to defense. Who's a sneaky play that you

1030
00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:01,800
Speaker 1: think it's a bunch of turnovers this week that nobody's

1031
00:45:01,840 --> 00:45:05,120
Speaker 1: gonna own. Well, not that nobody's gonna own Casey. Jacksonville

1032
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:07,400
Speaker 1: will just they'll they'll turn the ball over early in

1033
00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:09,480
Speaker 1: the game. I know they will put a points late,

1034
00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:12,400
Speaker 1: but I think for raw points perspective that Casey's in

1035
00:45:12,480 --> 00:45:16,279
Speaker 1: a good spot for for forcing turnovers. Cowboys kind of too,

1036
00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:18,799
Speaker 1: but Cowboys more of a it'd be hard to see

1037
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:21,879
Speaker 1: Cleveland getting anything going against them. So they Cowboys strike

1038
00:45:21,960 --> 00:45:24,560
Speaker 1: me just as a little bit safer. Where you know,

1039
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 1: Jacksonville has scored enough in fourth quarter games that they

1040
00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:29,319
Speaker 1: have put up some points. So I think those are

1041
00:45:29,360 --> 00:45:31,080
Speaker 1: like the sort of like the two different defense that

1042
00:45:31,120 --> 00:45:34,480
Speaker 1: I'm looking at. Yeah, I like New Orleans and I

1043
00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:37,840
Speaker 1: know that sounds crazy because they're New Orleans, but Colin

1044
00:45:37,960 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 1: Kaepernick throws a lot of interceptions, he fumbles the ball.

1045
00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:44,040
Speaker 1: No one's gonna play New Orleans. And I want to

1046
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:45,839
Speaker 1: be shocked if they get in the end zone, if

1047
00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:48,040
Speaker 1: they get in the end zone. At that price, especially

1048
00:45:48,120 --> 00:45:51,040
Speaker 1: on DraftKings, you've got the best defensive value and it's

1049
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:54,480
Speaker 1: it's really not even close. They're so so cheap, and

1050
00:45:55,080 --> 00:45:58,239
Speaker 1: I think Kaepernick gives them a pretty good upside here.

1051
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:02,239
Speaker 1: Now we have we do our ownership projections every week,

1052
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:05,880
Speaker 1: and we have Kansas City is the most owned defense.

1053
00:46:06,239 --> 00:46:08,480
Speaker 1: I think they're the safest defense. I think they're the

1054
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:10,920
Speaker 1: best bet to grab ten plus DFS points this weekend.

1055
00:46:11,800 --> 00:46:14,880
Speaker 1: Like you said, they're the best to interceptions, portals is

1056
00:46:14,920 --> 00:46:19,160
Speaker 1: the worst. It's a perfect combination. So yeah, I like

1057
00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:21,600
Speaker 1: Kansas City a lot this week on defense, I'll be

1058
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:25,000
Speaker 1: playing them in almost every single lineup. I'll you know,

1059
00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:28,719
Speaker 1: obviously throw a couple interesting ones into GPP lineups. But

1060
00:46:28,840 --> 00:46:31,000
Speaker 1: Kansas City this week, it's a great play. You other

1061
00:46:31,080 --> 00:46:33,520
Speaker 1: team that I the other team that I could see

1062
00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:36,680
Speaker 1: getting into the interception games, the Broncos. The Raiders do

1063
00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:39,560
Speaker 1: throw a ton, and it's more this is more of

1064
00:46:39,719 --> 00:46:41,560
Speaker 1: you know, the Raiders throws so much that it's hard

1065
00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:44,040
Speaker 1: to consider playing Denver in a safe situation because Oakland

1066
00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:46,439
Speaker 1: could put up points, but car just throws so much.

1067
00:46:46,719 --> 00:46:50,799
Speaker 1: And again, the highest correlation between interceptions and the interceptions

1068
00:46:50,920 --> 00:46:52,400
Speaker 1: and actually getting it done is just the amount of

1069
00:46:52,440 --> 00:46:54,440
Speaker 1: times the other quarterbacks throwing over the period of time.

1070
00:46:54,520 --> 00:46:57,680
Speaker 1: So that from just an interception kind of trying to

1071
00:46:58,160 --> 00:47:00,560
Speaker 1: get lucky one time. I could see the Broncos being

1072
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:02,760
Speaker 1: in that situation just because they have the volume passing

1073
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 1: from the Raiders. I heard it last week, and I

1074
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:06,839
Speaker 1: wish I remembered who said it so I could give

1075
00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:10,920
Speaker 1: them credit. But somebody compared Derek Carr to Brett Farve,

1076
00:47:11,320 --> 00:47:13,759
Speaker 1: and it's a great comp look. Brett Farve is one

1077
00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:16,799
Speaker 1: of the best quarterbacks of all time, but Derek Carr

1078
00:47:17,080 --> 00:47:19,400
Speaker 1: is very good. He's probably not on the same level

1079
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:21,160
Speaker 1: as Brett Farve, but they're the same type of player.

1080
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:25,360
Speaker 1: They're both complete gun slingers. He has no regards about

1081
00:47:25,360 --> 00:47:28,279
Speaker 1: throwing it into triple coverage hidden that slot, and he's

1082
00:47:28,320 --> 00:47:31,000
Speaker 1: good at it. But that also comes with some interceptions

1083
00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:35,480
Speaker 1: here there. So Denver is very good defense. Oakland's offensive

1084
00:47:35,520 --> 00:47:37,520
Speaker 1: line is excellent, so they're probably not going to get

1085
00:47:37,520 --> 00:47:39,400
Speaker 1: to the quarterback quite as much. But yeah, I can

1086
00:47:39,440 --> 00:47:41,320
Speaker 1: see a few picks, maybe a pick six. I like

1087
00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:43,960
Speaker 1: that pick. Well, guys guys like car with huge just

1088
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:46,560
Speaker 1: cannon arms that they have like Hubris, where they just

1089
00:47:46,719 --> 00:47:48,360
Speaker 1: they're like I can get that throw in there, you know,

1090
00:47:48,600 --> 00:47:50,920
Speaker 1: and that that that could be great. It makes you

1091
00:47:50,960 --> 00:47:53,000
Speaker 1: a really pretty good quarterback over the long term. It

1092
00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:55,359
Speaker 1: also probably just forces bad decisions about you every once

1093
00:47:55,400 --> 00:47:59,000
Speaker 1: in a while allow the comp So um, yeah, I

1094
00:47:59,040 --> 00:48:01,320
Speaker 1: can see that those just those huge guys that just

1095
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:03,560
Speaker 1: can just wing the ball. They just think they can

1096
00:48:03,600 --> 00:48:06,520
Speaker 1: make every throw, whether they really can or not. All right, Doug,

1097
00:48:06,640 --> 00:48:09,080
Speaker 1: let's close this out by talking about stacks. If you

1098
00:48:09,200 --> 00:48:12,120
Speaker 1: had to pick one stack for cash games, who do

1099
00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:15,239
Speaker 1: you trust the most for cash games? I would probably

1100
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:18,719
Speaker 1: go Rogers, and then I would I would kind of

1101
00:48:18,800 --> 00:48:21,680
Speaker 1: hedge out my I would hedge out by ownership of

1102
00:48:21,760 --> 00:48:24,040
Speaker 1: the different Green Bay wide receivers, if that makes sense,

1103
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:27,000
Speaker 1: Like I think, I think this is a situation and

1104
00:48:27,080 --> 00:48:29,839
Speaker 1: football too. I mean, the variance level in football, it's

1105
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:32,719
Speaker 1: not like baseball, but the varian instant football comes from injury, right,

1106
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:35,359
Speaker 1: and so an injury and matchups that we just weren't

1107
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:36,960
Speaker 1: that a team picks up on that we weren't going

1108
00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:39,520
Speaker 1: to be able to see going in, and so you know,

1109
00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:41,520
Speaker 1: that's where you just see like big target increases for

1110
00:48:41,560 --> 00:48:43,600
Speaker 1: a certain thing because the teams pick something out. I

1111
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:46,320
Speaker 1: think I'd be fine this week with going Rogers and

1112
00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:50,000
Speaker 1: then going combinations of Cob, Montgomery, Adams, Nelson, depending on

1113
00:48:50,120 --> 00:48:53,120
Speaker 1: who's in there, and that I think has high floor

1114
00:48:53,200 --> 00:48:54,640
Speaker 1: written all over it just because of the amount that

1115
00:48:54,680 --> 00:48:56,040
Speaker 1: they throw. So I think that's where I'm gonna go

1116
00:48:56,239 --> 00:48:58,440
Speaker 1: with Cash. I can also see stacking Brown and Bell

1117
00:48:58,520 --> 00:49:01,480
Speaker 1: together in Cash, and I think that's probably okay. Also, yeah,

1118
00:49:01,880 --> 00:49:05,200
Speaker 1: my best stack is Aaron Rodgers, Randall, Cobb, Davante Adams,

1119
00:49:05,239 --> 00:49:07,520
Speaker 1: and it makes me feel nervous to leave in Montgomery

1120
00:49:07,520 --> 00:49:09,480
Speaker 1: and Nelson out, So I like your strategy a lot.

1121
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:13,520
Speaker 1: But you know, Cobb has just been getting so many targets.

1122
00:49:14,400 --> 00:49:16,040
Speaker 1: Adams has been getting a lot of targets too, and

1123
00:49:16,120 --> 00:49:19,440
Speaker 1: especially for his value. For his price, he's a great value.

1124
00:49:19,480 --> 00:49:23,200
Speaker 1: So that's my stack now, contrarian stack. I've already mentioned

1125
00:49:23,280 --> 00:49:25,680
Speaker 1: all three of these players as at their positions as

1126
00:49:25,719 --> 00:49:29,240
Speaker 1: contrarian plays for the position. So it's the Vikings, Sam Bradford,

1127
00:49:29,360 --> 00:49:33,480
Speaker 1: Stefan Diggs, Jeric McKinnon. And that looks ugly. I know

1128
00:49:33,760 --> 00:49:37,480
Speaker 1: that looks ugly, but at their prices. If Minnesota has

1129
00:49:37,520 --> 00:49:39,400
Speaker 1: one of those days where they put up thirty points

1130
00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:42,279
Speaker 1: it happens from time to time with crumbier offenses than

1131
00:49:42,320 --> 00:49:45,320
Speaker 1: the Vikings, then man, you could be one of like

1132
00:49:45,840 --> 00:49:48,600
Speaker 1: only twenty people who stack the Vikings. You get everything

1133
00:49:48,640 --> 00:49:51,120
Speaker 1: else right, you could be looking at a huge paycheck.

1134
00:49:51,680 --> 00:49:53,440
Speaker 1: I throw Kyle Rudolph in there with it as well.

1135
00:49:53,520 --> 00:49:56,839
Speaker 1: I like that a lot because he's coming out. There's

1136
00:49:56,840 --> 00:49:58,640
Speaker 1: a time earlier in the year he had three straight

1137
00:49:58,680 --> 00:50:00,320
Speaker 1: weeks of a touchdown. They will use him in the

1138
00:50:00,360 --> 00:50:02,400
Speaker 1: red zone, and so yeah, I like that a lot.

1139
00:50:02,480 --> 00:50:04,200
Speaker 1: Our system, like again, it has never seen a Viking

1140
00:50:04,200 --> 00:50:06,200
Speaker 1: it didn't want to play on a week to week basis.

1141
00:50:06,280 --> 00:50:09,000
Speaker 1: So I'm totally with you on guys like the Vikings

1142
00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:11,440
Speaker 1: and the price. You know, their lack of just overall

1143
00:50:11,560 --> 00:50:14,560
Speaker 1: so far season long upside has has kept the prices

1144
00:50:14,600 --> 00:50:16,520
Speaker 1: totally in check. And when you can get that kind

1145
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:18,680
Speaker 1: of value and just be able to jam in high

1146
00:50:18,719 --> 00:50:21,600
Speaker 1: price plays at other everywhere else, I'm yeah, you and

1147
00:50:21,680 --> 00:50:23,480
Speaker 1: I are on the same page with that one. Is

1148
00:50:23,520 --> 00:50:26,040
Speaker 1: there another contrarian stack that's intriguing to you? Yeah. I

1149
00:50:26,120 --> 00:50:29,680
Speaker 1: mentioned Dak and Dez before, sort of separately, but again,

1150
00:50:29,719 --> 00:50:33,640
Speaker 1: if you believe that, if you believe that um Elliott

1151
00:50:33,680 --> 00:50:35,360
Speaker 1: is going to be very highly owned, then he probably

1152
00:50:35,440 --> 00:50:38,359
Speaker 1: will be and rightfully so, you just get so much

1153
00:50:38,560 --> 00:50:42,200
Speaker 1: separation upside on the if they just end up going

1154
00:50:42,280 --> 00:50:43,920
Speaker 1: to Dak early to kind of maybe try to put

1155
00:50:43,920 --> 00:50:45,200
Speaker 1: the game out of reach, or they see if they

1156
00:50:45,239 --> 00:50:47,399
Speaker 1: have the matchup they've been they've they've shown they want,

1157
00:50:47,400 --> 00:50:49,920
Speaker 1: i mean excuse to go to de Dez is an

1158
00:50:49,960 --> 00:50:53,520
Speaker 1: elite receiver and he's also a guy that I'm pretty

1159
00:50:53,520 --> 00:50:55,560
Speaker 1: sure the coaching staff knows they need to sort of

1160
00:50:55,680 --> 00:50:58,320
Speaker 1: keep interested in the game, and so there will be

1161
00:50:58,440 --> 00:51:00,680
Speaker 1: times where they've forced him the ball or early because

1162
00:51:00,760 --> 00:51:03,399
Speaker 1: they just because if there goes a couple of series

1163
00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:05,200
Speaker 1: without seeing the ball, he kind of starts checking out.

1164
00:51:05,440 --> 00:51:08,320
Speaker 1: And I can see a situation where if they're just

1165
00:51:08,360 --> 00:51:10,120
Speaker 1: trying to keep him sort of in and around the game,

1166
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:12,920
Speaker 1: and he can snake one of maybe one or even

1167
00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:15,520
Speaker 1: two of Elliott's touchdowns on the day, then you're getting

1168
00:51:15,560 --> 00:51:18,120
Speaker 1: separation going both ways. So that's that's probably where I

1169
00:51:18,200 --> 00:51:20,680
Speaker 1: would go in tournaments. All right, Doug, Well that's all

1170
00:51:20,680 --> 00:51:22,680
Speaker 1: the questions we have for you this week. It was

1171
00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:25,480
Speaker 1: a fun conversation. I feel good about this week, and

1172
00:51:25,520 --> 00:51:27,239
Speaker 1: I appreciate you coming on the show. Yeah, man, thanks

1173
00:51:27,239 --> 00:51:28,600
Speaker 1: a lot. I really really appreciate it talk to you.

1174
00:51:28,680 --> 00:51:31,239
Speaker 1: So it's our pleasure. Take care and for those of

1175
00:51:31,280 --> 00:51:33,200
Speaker 1: you listening at home, that's our last show of the week.

1176
00:51:33,200 --> 00:51:35,360
Speaker 1: We've got three more coming up next week, highlighted by

1177
00:51:35,400 --> 00:51:38,800
Speaker 1: conversations with Matt Harman from NFL dot Com and Notorious

1178
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:40,799
Speaker 1: from Rhodo Grinders, So make sure you tune him for those.

1179
00:51:41,320 --> 00:51:44,359
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening, and enjoy your football. I just want

1180
00:51:44,360 --> 00:51:56,600
Speaker 1: to let you to watch I don't even know how

1181
00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:04,160
Speaker 1: Beside begging and the tap begging him, said the siren

1182
00:52:04,239 --> 00:52:04,880
Speaker 1: of trouble