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Speaker 1: Welcome into another episode of Sports Gambling with money Line Monico.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Alex Monico, Week fourteen. We're humming, we're cooking,
Speaker 1: we're cruising. We're just a couple of weeks away from
Speaker 1: Christmas Hanuka. Whatever you celebrate, we tip our frow to you.
Speaker 1: Happy holidays. We're in it, baby. It is win or
Speaker 1: go home in the NFL, and our slogan on the
Speaker 1: money Line Monica Weekend Pod remains true only one losing
Speaker 1: week through thirteen. Last week, I was a little back
Speaker 1: and forth on Giants plus two and a half or
Speaker 1: money line against the Commanders. That was the difference in
Speaker 1: three and two against the spread or two two and
Speaker 1: one a t s on the pot either way, one
Speaker 1: two and three outing the whole year. Look we move
Speaker 1: in silence, shout out Tom Clancy. All right, five for
Speaker 1: you gonna rock on a heavy divisional week here and
Speaker 1: six teams on a buy. So it was tough to
Speaker 1: reach a fifth game, but I got there. Research is superb. Oh,
Speaker 1: we're ready to rumble. Let's get into it. Do not
Speaker 1: forget to subscribe, rate, or review if you're enjoying yourself
Speaker 1: on all things podcast platforms of course, money Line Monaco
Speaker 1: on all social media, and I am on Action Network
Speaker 1: for picks. If you've been tracking me our World Cup
Speaker 1: real quick, I am going into the quarters up thirteen
Speaker 1: and a half units, just about firing on every game,
Speaker 1: every match. So yes, we are football and football out
Speaker 1: over here. Let's get into it. We are starting out
Speaker 1: in the place, the area that Tommy Tampa grew up,
Speaker 1: and we are fading the Goat, the ageless wonder, the
Speaker 1: man that did us dirty with the bucks minus three.
Speaker 1: We did take him live on the money line. But
Speaker 1: either way, they are going against Brock perty in the
Speaker 1: San Francisco forty Niners, who just not even not even
Speaker 1: in a unbelievably incredible manner because it's Shanahan and his scheme,
Speaker 1: but just an incomprehensible way. You mean to tell me
Speaker 1: you take the Niners, which we did on the pond
Speaker 1: minus four against the Fins, and Jimmy g goes down.
Speaker 1: We bring in a faceless character from Madden who doesn't
Speaker 1: have a photo, who's in the seventies overall, and he
Speaker 1: comes in and he was fantastic. This s a mr
Speaker 1: A relevant draft pick, going thirty seven for two ten
Speaker 1: two touchs. One mistake. I saw Brandon I you can
Speaker 1: interview this week. He was blown away at how Brock
Speaker 1: Purdy carried himself, went up and personally apologize, said I'm
Speaker 1: gonna make sure to get you the ball where you want.
Speaker 1: You said, that's all I gotta here, baby. He goes
Speaker 1: five for forty six with Purdy, Debot goes six for
Speaker 1: fifty eight, and McCaffrey goes eight for eighty with a tut. Look,
Speaker 1: this pick is about the defense. I'm just giving you
Speaker 1: my comfort ability in a Shanahan scheme that has run
Speaker 1: the pass, that is built for plug and play at quarterback,
Speaker 1: and is designed to stay in a game with a
Speaker 1: defense like this one. This Niners team at home is
Speaker 1: virtually unbeatable. Only Sir Patrick Mahomes has won a game
Speaker 1: there in the last ten. They are nine and one
Speaker 1: in their last ten, and the Bucks can't cover. For
Speaker 1: the life of them. They have failed to cover the
Speaker 1: spread and nine of their last ten games. Now, this
Speaker 1: is gonna be a defensive chess match. I'm taking the under.
Speaker 1: You have to take the Scuba Steve under in this one.
Speaker 1: The line is three and a half, so it's a
Speaker 1: little bit of a fickle line. The over under though,
Speaker 1: of thirty seven and a half. I don't care how
Speaker 1: low it is. This is eighteen and fifteen points given
Speaker 1: up defensively on both sides. The Bucks have gone under
Speaker 1: in five straight games and six straight road games. Look
Speaker 1: at the Bucks on paper on the road. This entire
Speaker 1: costco sample size of a season. Last couple seventeen verse
Speaker 1: the Browns three verse the Panthers, eighteen versus Steelers, all
Speaker 1: on the road, all lost. Panthers and Steelers have good defenses,
Speaker 1: the Browns do not. They still couldn't put up twenty.
Speaker 1: Then you go back to the beginning of the season.
Speaker 1: They started out to and oh both on the road.
Speaker 1: Nineteen three. They beat the Cowboys, they beat the Saints.
Speaker 1: They snapped out record against New Orleans. The point being
Speaker 1: is this team the box on the road this season
Speaker 1: with Tommy, Tampa have gotten twenty points on the road
Speaker 1: one single time, one time points going against the Niners.
Speaker 1: Team that gives up fIF team. The team that gets
Speaker 1: to arguably seventeen points in this game wins the game
Speaker 1: wins it. I'm talking too and Chargers. In a bit,
Speaker 1: remind yourself what this team did to two. He had
Speaker 1: gone note picks two under fifty plus yards thirty plus
Speaker 1: points in a month straight of Miami Dolphins football. He
Speaker 1: throws two picks on fifty four percent completion against this
Speaker 1: Niners team. Boso with three sacks. This is the worst
Speaker 1: running team in the league by the way, coming in
Speaker 1: and the number one running defense. Both of them are
Speaker 1: running and given up right around mid seventies. That is terrifying.
Speaker 1: Here's the last part of my argument, because I could
Speaker 1: go on and on about this. This is a slam
Speaker 1: dunk pick as long as brock Purty doesn't throw more
Speaker 1: than a pick. Brady's throw nine of his sixteen touchdowns
Speaker 1: this season in the fourth quarter. All right, It's the
Speaker 1: only quarterback with at least half of his touchdowns in
Speaker 1: the final frame. You saw it last Monday when he
Speaker 1: scored two in the fourth. Since the Niners gave up
Speaker 1: sixteen to the Chiefs in the fourth quarter about six
Speaker 1: weeks ago, listen to the nine years last five four quarters.
Speaker 1: They did give up seven to the Dolphins, but you
Speaker 1: could argue that was garbage time. They blanked the Saints
Speaker 1: for the first time in over thirty plus games. They
Speaker 1: gave up zero fourth quarter points of the Cardinals, zero
Speaker 1: to the Chargers, and zero to the Rams. This defense
Speaker 1: is gonna come in and I hate to say it,
Speaker 1: but make Brady look like he is del Boca Vista.
Speaker 1: Mr Seinfeld bound to go play some backgammon or whatever
Speaker 1: they play shuffle board down there and getting ready for dinner.
Speaker 1: At four thirty. That's what Brady is gonna look like
Speaker 1: this weekend. He's going to look. Oh, it's gonna be
Speaker 1: sad because I still believe in this team and I
Speaker 1: still think they can win a playoff game or two.
Speaker 1: And I am going to fire on futures for the Bucks.
Speaker 1: I can't not do it on a forty five year
Speaker 1: old Brady with this prominent of the defense, the buckst
Speaker 1: is incredible. So I'm taking the under, but I'm taking
Speaker 1: the team. It's nine and one in their last ten
Speaker 1: at home. The Bucks have covered one time in ten games.
Speaker 1: We keep it pushing. We just talked to us. We're
Speaker 1: going right back in. I'm back and forth on this game, truly,
Speaker 1: and I'm emotional about it. It is easily my least
Speaker 1: confident game in the slate for Week fourteen, but I
Speaker 1: have to talk it. It's a premier matchup Dolphins on
Speaker 1: the road at the Chargers. Dolphins minus three and a half.
Speaker 1: Wait if you can, because on fan duel this week
Speaker 1: you could have gotten Miami minus three and that's the
Speaker 1: play I want. I'm giving it to you as we
Speaker 1: hear it at minus three and a half. I will
Speaker 1: still co sign on it. It is very hard for
Speaker 1: me to do so I have gone back and fourth
Speaker 1: on this one, but I land on the fact that
Speaker 1: Brandon Staley is such an abysmal coach. He has no
Speaker 1: idea how to lead men. He has no no finger
Speaker 1: on the pulse for this Chargers team, and you can
Speaker 1: just feel it in the room. You want to know
Speaker 1: why it's coaching this team. The Chargers average two point
Speaker 1: six first quarter points at home in the league. You
Speaker 1: mean to tell me, because first quarters are scripted, that
Speaker 1: is practiced and rehearsed. You've seen many of teams. You
Speaker 1: saw it with two in the first drive they went
Speaker 1: eighty yards down the field like they scored one other
Speaker 1: time in the end zone that entire game. Why it
Speaker 1: was scripted? The Andy Weed Mike McDaniel of the world.
Speaker 1: Head coaches will typically come in the Shanahan's the Belichicks
Speaker 1: with great first scripted drive. Well, Brandon Staley's telling you
Speaker 1: him and his team at home are averaging two point
Speaker 1: six first quarter points and the Chargers don't cover at home.
Speaker 1: They're randomly very good on the road. And I do
Speaker 1: have a philosophy with the Chargers. You don't take them
Speaker 1: when they're a favorite, you take them as a dog.
Speaker 1: I've lived with this team. I'm a recovering San Diego
Speaker 1: Charger fan. I am from ron Burgundy, Land. I know
Speaker 1: the team like the back of my front. The team
Speaker 1: this year l a C. Hasn't covered the spread in
Speaker 1: three of their last four home games. This Miami team
Speaker 1: was on a five game winning streak. Again, I just
Speaker 1: talked to a down, but it was because of this
Speaker 1: Niners defense, and they had a terrible game plan. They
Speaker 1: came out with eight rushing attempts. Eight that's the US
Speaker 1: attempts in franchise history, a thirty three yards. Well, I'm
Speaker 1: here to tell you it is a gift. What this
Speaker 1: Chargers run D is to reverse the script for McDaniel.
Speaker 1: In this game plan, the Chargers give up one on
Speaker 1: the ground. They're an unwatchable run D. So if you
Speaker 1: can take a little Shanahan in your game plan here
Speaker 1: and take two former Shannon and running backs and Jeff
Speaker 1: Wilson and Rheem Most and run down the throat of
Speaker 1: the Chargers and win the turnover battle, which they are
Speaker 1: at a disadvantage of. The Chargers actually do take care
Speaker 1: of the ball, but I do feel from a game
Speaker 1: plan perspective, from an awful lost perspective, and a coaching
Speaker 1: missmatch advantage. We have to take Miami here and remind yourself,
Speaker 1: l A. I was on the Raiders last week. I
Speaker 1: was all over and I told you it is a
Speaker 1: one and one split with the Raiders and Chargers. Every
Speaker 1: year we're two and oh in that series. So I
Speaker 1: took the Raiders last week. They did the Chargers. I
Speaker 1: don't love three and a half. I will take it,
Speaker 1: but I love three. The Chargers as underdogs in their
Speaker 1: last five and five, so they're not gonna win this game.
Speaker 1: In my opinion, they're really not. They don't get to
Speaker 1: the quarterback there, twenty six and sacks, they don't stop
Speaker 1: the run. The only thing they do well is lean
Speaker 1: on Mr Justin Herbert. They're very down the middle in
Speaker 1: points foreign points against. In this game. I just have
Speaker 1: to go with Miami, who again is not a good
Speaker 1: road cover. I'm not gonna sit here and tell you
Speaker 1: they're a good road cover. It's why I have reservation.
Speaker 1: But I gotta remind myself. Brandon Staley is a terrible coach.
Speaker 1: Mike McDaniel is an offensive master mark. This is not
Speaker 1: a good defense. The drop off from the number one
Speaker 1: D two a bottom ten D. I have to I
Speaker 1: have to say they're a bottom ten D with a
Speaker 1: bottom four run run defense. I have to. I gotta
Speaker 1: lean and trust the Dolphins. I have to. I laid
Speaker 1: it out for you. The Chargers don't score, score out
Speaker 1: the gate. They don't maintain leads. I mean unbelievable, unbelievable
Speaker 1: that they had to lead again against the Raiders. That's
Speaker 1: four losses this season where the Chargers have been up
Speaker 1: at a halftime and lost. You know, they're only second
Speaker 1: two in that category. The danger which we move on.
Speaker 1: If you could take the Dolphins minus three, take them
Speaker 1: minus three and a half. If we must, we keep
Speaker 1: it pushing. It is another phenomenal rivalry matchup coming in.
Speaker 1: It is a big number, and again I've seen it
Speaker 1: at seven. I'm giving it at six and a half.
Speaker 1: I'm super salty because I have it on Action Network
Speaker 1: at seven. I try to put these picks in on
Speaker 1: Action Network for you to lock them in at the numbers.
Speaker 1: When I do, I have it as plus seven on Action.
Speaker 1: I'm not lying to the it's plus six and a half. Now.
Speaker 1: Sharps are coming in because the money is on Philly.
Speaker 1: Excuse me, the tickets are on Philly, rightfully, so blowout
Speaker 1: win against the Titans, and the money is on the
Speaker 1: g Men. We know it. It's a divisional dance and
Speaker 1: we're getting seven or six and a half at home.
Speaker 1: The g Men as bad as they've been in division.
Speaker 1: They swept the Eagles last week. Last year seven. They
Speaker 1: beat him at MetLife last year. Last year was last year.
Speaker 1: Though the Eagles are five and oh on the road
Speaker 1: this season. Here's the thing, though, Danny Dimes was magnificent
Speaker 1: last last week, and we had the g Men, you know,
Speaker 1: and it was an underplay as well, sick captain hook W.
Speaker 1: The g Men gave up their whole points in the
Speaker 1: first half, and we're incredible all the way through. Now,
Speaker 1: your last three drives our negative seven yards? Yeah? What
Speaker 1: is this my dating life during cuffing season here? Yeah,
Speaker 1: forget about it. Three drives negative seven yards. Not gonna
Speaker 1: do it heading in to overtime. But either way, Danny
Speaker 1: Dimes last last week, he's the first quarterback first quarterback
Speaker 1: ever eighty percent completion percentage on thirty plus attempts and
Speaker 1: also ran for seventy plus on the ground. That's incredible.
Speaker 1: And again I've spoken about this. Diets are not great
Speaker 1: right now, they're not, but they are a very good
Speaker 1: cover and they are historically a good cover when they're underdogs.
Speaker 1: Let's not forget these defenses are given up twenty one
Speaker 1: and eighteen point eight respectively. These defenses is what I'm
Speaker 1: leaning on with this number, and this equals Rundy is
Speaker 1: pedestrian at best. Now they've had a very good last
Speaker 1: three outings with their respective runde they're still giving up
Speaker 1: one seventeen on the ground. They're still going against say
Speaker 1: Quad Barkley, top four in the league right now, and
Speaker 1: overall rushing yards and a lot of this is gonna
Speaker 1: come down to protection with Daniel Jones from the offensive side.
Speaker 1: Jones gets sacked three times by the Commanders and Sex
Speaker 1: seventeen times in five games. That's not ideal, and that's
Speaker 1: a recipe for one, three and one in their last five.
Speaker 1: But the Eagles do not blitz a lot, thankfully. They're
Speaker 1: they're great at getting to the quarterback. They're eight with
Speaker 1: most pressures, but they don't blitz a ton. So the
Speaker 1: game plan would have to be for Danny to get
Speaker 1: out the dimes early and off and facilitate distribute checkdowns, screens, slants, curls,
Speaker 1: and lean on the run game here and the Eagles
Speaker 1: are first in turnover differential, but the Giants are plus
Speaker 1: three in that same department. It's only a handful of
Speaker 1: teams in the league that are plus in the turnover area.
Speaker 1: So again, let's remind ourselves. The Commanders beat the Eagles
Speaker 1: out right at their place at Fly Eagles fly Land.
Speaker 1: So in this NFC East, very random division, you have
Speaker 1: to think differently. And we're getting an enormous number, and
Speaker 1: there's playoff implications and it's called out and these teams
Speaker 1: despies each other. Last thing, I'll say, you saw the
Speaker 1: Eagles go big play after big play after big play
Speaker 1: last week. And it's a very very capable Titans d
Speaker 1: This Giants team is the on league team in the
Speaker 1: league on defense to not allow a touchdown over thirty
Speaker 1: five yards this season. All right, this is a crazy staff,
Speaker 1: but this is how deep I get. Sometimes. Since nineteen
Speaker 1: forty the g men defensively have only done this one
Speaker 1: other time. Shout out, Lawrence Taylor. This is Wink Martindale
Speaker 1: for you, Ben, But don't break. They're not gonna let
Speaker 1: the Eagles beat them deep. They're gonna wear them down.
Speaker 1: This is Giants football. If they can stay pedestrian on offense,
Speaker 1: we will cover Jane men plus sex or seven if
Speaker 1: you're a lucky lucky mench alright, keeping it pushing. Two
Speaker 1: more picks. I love them both. Let's get into it.
Speaker 1: Two divisional ones. Ones a dog, one's a favorite. I'm
Speaker 1: making a case for both. I am taking Mr Hide
Speaker 1: your kids, hide your wife. Kirk Cousins ten thousand soul playing,
Speaker 1: feed up, no shirt on, turnover, chain dance and swagged
Speaker 1: out like a gentleman. He's going into the den, the
Speaker 1: Lions den, and they're underdogs. The d Troy Lions are favored,
Speaker 1: favored against the tenant two team. Now, this could be
Speaker 1: the biggest trap of all time because again this is
Speaker 1: the Vikings luck walk meet the Lady metric. They're being
Speaker 1: out gained on yards and their tenant too. It's never happened.
Speaker 1: No team in NFL history has double digit wins getting
Speaker 1: out gained by more than fifty plus yards. But I'm
Speaker 1: telling you one thing right now, this particular had dad
Speaker 1: the Vikings own. The Vikings are four and Oh against
Speaker 1: the spread in their last forehead to head Kirk Cousins
Speaker 1: at Ford Field. You might as well call him Danny
Speaker 1: Ocean in the Vegas Shout Out Oceans eleven because he's
Speaker 1: taken Terry bennetict Now he is thirteen touchdowns, no mistakes
Speaker 1: at four Field, the most touchdown passes by a player
Speaker 1: with no interceptions at anyone's crib in the history of
Speaker 1: the game. Burke non prime time Cousins, Kirk I'll take
Speaker 1: vanilla ice cream with no toppings. Cousins is thirteen touchdowns,
Speaker 1: no picks at Detroit. Don't fall in love with Detroit.
Speaker 1: It's the worst defense in the league, statistically speaking, the
Speaker 1: worst team in the NFL on defense. Mr Dan Campbell
Speaker 1: and his two caffeine coffee recipe The Good Burger Secret
Speaker 1: sauce is run the ball down the throat of the
Speaker 1: Lions and throw it all over their face. You give
Speaker 1: up a game, I'm not backing you in US. I
Speaker 1: feel phenomenon and I don't. Thirteen tugs, no picks. The
Speaker 1: Vikings are excellent in the turnover differential department. There plus
Speaker 1: eight here plus eight. Jared Goff, coming off the best
Speaker 1: game of his season against the Jags, who have completely
Speaker 1: lost their Austin powers mojo, which I will get to
Speaker 1: it shortly, but again, go player for player like coward.
Speaker 1: If you want to go, who's the best ten players
Speaker 1: on the field, seven are on the Vikings, maybe six,
Speaker 1: at least six. Yeah, unequivocally better offense. You have to
Speaker 1: say they have a better defense. And yeah, I'm saying
Speaker 1: they have a better offense. You want to go, Tipford
Speaker 1: Tow with me and tell me the lines have a
Speaker 1: better offense. I will do that all day. I don't
Speaker 1: even like Kirk Cousins, but I like him in the spot.
Speaker 1: And remind yourself the line flipped in this and so
Speaker 1: there is some traps going on. I could be missing
Speaker 1: an objects in mirror are not as they appear. I
Speaker 1: gotta take it, though. I have to take Cousins. He's
Speaker 1: a dog. We're getting points plus two right now. Did
Speaker 1: you imagine I saw the two and a half yesterday.
Speaker 1: If it goes to plus three, oh my gosh, break
Speaker 1: out the errand judge hammer. Vikings plus two at Ford Field,
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins second home, last pick, best pick. The Tennessee
Speaker 1: Titans for the first time all year are on back
Speaker 1: to back losses a blowout by Philly, t worst outing
Speaker 1: since the Bills blow out earlier in the season on
Speaker 1: Natty TV. But I know this head to head is
Speaker 1: incredibly skewed. The Jaguars are unwatchable at the moment. They're
Speaker 1: particularly unwatchable against this Titans team. Titans are six and
Speaker 1: one against the spreading, their last seven against the Jacks
Speaker 1: at home. That is a Tannehill Derrick Henry stat six
Speaker 1: and one against the spread verse the lowly Jacks, who
Speaker 1: all by the way of one one road game, one
Speaker 1: road game since the Oakland Raiders one and it was
Speaker 1: against my Chargers because Staley doesn't know how to prepare tenness.
Speaker 1: C has also won eight straight home games versus this
Speaker 1: Jacks team. You have to go back to November. We're
Speaker 1: on this division. I got this division figured out. I
Speaker 1: picked a lot of correct against the spreads in the
Speaker 1: a f C South this year. Head to head, particularly,
Speaker 1: Colts are owned by the Jacks, but the Jacks are
Speaker 1: owned by the Titans. Eighth straight is not worth sleeping on.
Speaker 1: And it's on the heels and the precipice of the
Speaker 1: production of one King Henry and the man has been
Speaker 1: unbelievable against Jacksonville. Go out and hammer his player props
Speaker 1: for this outing right now, averaging in his last six
Speaker 1: against the Jacks all hundred and forty five, going over
Speaker 1: two hundred twice in the last six. He's gotten to
Speaker 1: the end zone twelve times in six games against the Jaguarks.
Speaker 1: If you don't hammer, Derrick Henry props after hearing that,
Speaker 1: I feel bad for you. Jacksonville is a very jekyl
Speaker 1: and high team. Is the only team to have won
Speaker 1: by twenty five or more and lost by twenty five
Speaker 1: or more in the season. But they've won two games
Speaker 1: since September and one we had we took the jackson
Speaker 1: was four and a half against the Ravens. It was
Speaker 1: a numb first play at home versus a very lackluster
Speaker 1: pedestrian Raven's offense in the last six weeks. But this
Speaker 1: Jack's team just let goth go thirty one forty one
Speaker 1: for three forty and two tocks what j Will and
Speaker 1: Swift score look St Brown go eleven for here's the
Speaker 1: other caveat. Trevor Lawrence got yank from that game. He
Speaker 1: sprained his ankle he had he didn't practice on Wednesday, C. J. Beathard.
Speaker 1: If I'm not mistaken, there's a prideful team everyone loves
Speaker 1: to continue to back Jacksonville. They're done, They're done. The
Speaker 1: Titans are playing for a lock up of the division.
Speaker 1: They want to wrap it up, they want to get
Speaker 1: in playoff. Most a prideful team of world Coach Team.
Speaker 1: Jacks aren't unning the ball at all, and he got
Speaker 1: an injured Lawrence and their defense has been unwatchably gave
Speaker 1: up forty to the Lions. Titans off two losses at
Speaker 1: home with this nine and one in their last ten
Speaker 1: against the jack Acts and back Toteen. You gotta go
Speaker 1: because eighth straight home games. I don't love the captain hook.
Speaker 1: At three and a half, I have to do it.
Speaker 1: Tightens minus three and a half, we'll wrap up shot
Speaker 1: Niners minus three and a half, Dolphins hopefully minus three
Speaker 1: in a perfect world. But if it's minus three and
Speaker 1: a half, we go down with it. Giants plus six
Speaker 1: and a half. If you can get plus seven, mazzle, mazzle,
Speaker 1: we'll take the Vikings plus two. It will go up
Speaker 1: to two and a half. I imagine, maybe not, but
Speaker 1: it might again. Look out for the three will swallow
Speaker 1: three and a half. Take the Titans at home. We
Speaker 1: have to do a baby and we get out of
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