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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by FanDuel. It

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Speaker 1: is a UFC Friday, your UFC betting preview UFC Vegas

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Speaker 1: seventy one coming your way this weekend from UFC EIGHTPEC

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Speaker 1: Center in Las Vegas, Sprending Glass. She and your host,

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Speaker 1: joined by our UFC contributors Sean Zilo and Billy Ward,

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Speaker 1: will dive into underdogs, props and more. We'll finish up

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Speaker 1: with best bets as well, and who knows, maybe today

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Speaker 1: will be another day in which we say the best

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Speaker 1: bet is not our favorite bet, but we'll find out,

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Speaker 1: because that's what often happens. Point being is, folks, when

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Speaker 1: these guys give out picks, they like all of them,

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Speaker 1: and they give out a best bet because they just

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Speaker 1: have to make a choice, and sometimes they.

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Speaker 3: Say it with more conviction than others. So just listen

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Speaker 3: to the whole thing.

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Speaker 1: Main event, Sergei Pavlovich, Curtis Blades. I'm tempted to make

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Speaker 1: a dodgeball reference when White Goodman goes down the list

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Speaker 1: of his fellow contributors on his team Ziillo going into

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Speaker 1: this one here, Pavlovich has won five straight, Blades has

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Speaker 1: won three in a row, eight of nine. Two big

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Speaker 1: big fellas with power. How do you just first off

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Speaker 1: assess the match up, both kind of vying for position

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Speaker 1: here to move up the ranks, both three and four respectively,

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Speaker 1: And how do you want to bet it?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Billy and I were talking before the podcast that

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Speaker 4: was Steepe and John Jones potentially fighting and then both retiring.

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Speaker 4: This is a de fact down number one contender fight

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Speaker 4: for who is probably going to end up facing Cyril

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Speaker 4: Gone for the heavyweight bout, which ends up becoming vacant

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Speaker 4: after that. Jones Stepe fight. So very important fight here

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Speaker 4: for the heavyweight division, very intriguing fight from a stylistic perspective.

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Speaker 4: I think Billy and I and pretty much anybody who

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Speaker 4: handicaps the sports seriously would agree on how this fight

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Speaker 4: plays out, which is very likely that if Curtis Blades

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Speaker 4: can survive seven minutes, he should look about minus one

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Speaker 4: thousand over the remainder of the fight. Whether he finishes

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Speaker 4: the fight in the second round or is able to

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Speaker 4: coast to a decision with his grappling, he's probably the

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Speaker 4: best wrestler in the heavyweight division. Maybe Jelton Almeta has

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Speaker 4: something to say about that. Almeeda is a better grappler

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Speaker 4: than Curtis Blades, and Blades in a particularly adeptor damaging

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Speaker 4: offensive grappler. He's good at taking people down, holding position,

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Speaker 4: doesn't necessarily land a ton of damage, doesn't really have

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Speaker 4: much of a submission game. But Pavolvich is a bad

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Speaker 4: defensive grappler. We saw him get completely dominated by believe

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Speaker 4: it was alistair overim incredibly powerful on the feet. Blades

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Speaker 4: is a little chiney and is the better technical striker

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Speaker 4: and has the speed advantage. So we've seen Blades in

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Speaker 4: other fights be content to strike in round one, falls

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Speaker 4: in love with his hands a little bit. He needs

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Speaker 4: the wrestle here immediately because he's a little chinny. If

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Speaker 4: Pavlovich connects, it could be lights out very quickly. We've

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Speaker 4: seen him connected on other heavyweights and his power just

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Speaker 4: seems to be a little bit different and above average

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Speaker 4: even for the heavyweight division. So the way I would

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Speaker 4: want to bet this is Pavovich early, Blades late. I

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Speaker 4: think from a pre pre fight perspective, the best ways

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Speaker 4: to bet it pavioltage round one, Pavlovitch round two, and

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Speaker 4: then look to live bet Blades after round one. If

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Speaker 4: you have a book, there's one book out there that

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Speaker 4: let's you play the same game parlays. I would look

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Speaker 4: to place Pavovich and under half around a plus six hundred,

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Speaker 4: Pavlovich and under one and a half rounds at plus

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Speaker 4: two to fifty, and then alternatively Blades with the over

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Speaker 4: one and a half rounds is plus two to fifty,

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Speaker 4: Blades with over half a round is minus one oh five.

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Speaker 4: So amongst those four, I'm probably going to look to

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Speaker 4: play Blades with the over half a round and why

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Speaker 4: bet Blades after round one, But I'm very tempted to

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Speaker 4: play it the other way and bet Pavovich early in

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Speaker 4: the first round, in the first round and a half.

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Speaker 4: I think if you give him that time, that minute

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Speaker 4: or two to stand up in the second round and

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Speaker 4: potentially ran a knockout two, he may have an opportunity

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Speaker 4: to do so. But I expect Blades not only with

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Speaker 4: his style, but just in terms of the cardio advantage,

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Speaker 4: to be able to tire out Pavlovich if this extends

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Speaker 4: for any period of time. So Blade's justified favorite, but

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Speaker 4: that first round is going to be very hairy Billy.

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Speaker 1: Coming in to UFC Vegas seventy one. Zarella kind of

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Speaker 1: mapped out there. Pavlovich has had some early minute finishes

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Speaker 1: as of late. And you've got your luck ratings up

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Speaker 1: right now at actionnetwork dot Com. You think the line's

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Speaker 1: fair with Pavlovich at plus one thirty eight Blades minus

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Speaker 1: one seventy. How do you want to go about betting

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Speaker 1: aside here?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and I put it, you know, in the luck ratings.

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Speaker 5: If this weren't the event, I would not mention it

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Speaker 5: at all in luck ratings because all of Pavloch's fights

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Speaker 5: have ended in the first round. There's nothing lucky about

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Speaker 5: a first round knockout, one way or the other. This

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Speaker 5: is also like my least favorite kind of fight to handicap,

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Speaker 5: which we've talked about lately. You know, you've got a

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Speaker 5: guy who's just on an absolute tear against lower level competition,

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Speaker 5: fighting kind of a stalwart of the division. He's got

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Speaker 5: some losses, but they're against the best of the best.

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Speaker 5: It's just tricky because you know, we haven't seen Pavlovich

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Speaker 5: beat upper level competition. Doesn't mean he can't. He's beat

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Speaker 5: everyone they put in front of him since his debut

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Speaker 5: against over Him. Totally agree with Sean on all of

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Speaker 5: all of his points. It's, as he put it, pretty

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Speaker 5: much the only way you can see this fight if

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Speaker 5: I had to go one way or the other. I

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Speaker 5: liked the Pavlovic early lines, you know, superficially from a

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Speaker 5: skills standpoint, He's kind of similar to Derek Lewis and

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Speaker 5: Francis Naganu, pretty one dimensional strikers who both have wins

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Speaker 5: over Curtis Blades. Pavlovich also does have a wrestling background himself.

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Speaker 5: I believe he competed in Greco Roman, which isn't great

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Speaker 5: for MMA, Like it's probably the worst kind of wrestling

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Speaker 5: background I have for MMA, but it's it's better than

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Speaker 5: no wrestling background. And yeah, he got worked on the

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Speaker 5: ground by Overheim. But I'm pretty sure Pavlovich was expecting

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Speaker 5: a striking fight, if he has any sense at all,

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Speaker 5: He's expecting Blades to try to wrestle here, which changes

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Speaker 5: the calculus a little bit. But perfect world, Pavlovich either

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Speaker 5: finishes them around one or hurts them enough that we

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Speaker 5: can get a huge line on Blades Live after round one.

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Speaker 5: That's kind of what I'm hoping for Fando. I love

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Speaker 5: the you know, multiple rounds where you get the equity

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Speaker 5: in all of them. Pavlovich rounds one, two or three

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Speaker 5: plus one eighty five not a ton better than his

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Speaker 5: money line, but the odds of him winning any other

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Speaker 5: way or infantismal, So I've got no problem with that.

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Speaker 5: And then again, Blades Live. I'm not gonna take Blades

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Speaker 5: Live if he wins round one and goes to minus

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Speaker 5: five hundred or something. But if Pavlovich lands a couple

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Speaker 5: times and we can get a better odd on better

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Speaker 5: odds on Blades, certainly like that, and Sean's tolely right.

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Speaker 5: You know, if you can get Blades in over one

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Speaker 5: and a half or Blades' late style props, that makes

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Speaker 5: a ton of sense too. My only concern with that

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Speaker 5: is Blades taking him down right away and finishing him

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Speaker 5: wouldn't totally shock me. I think that's more likely than

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Speaker 5: Pavlovich grinding out a five round decision. So that's why

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Speaker 5: I like the Blades Live. Once we know that risk

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Speaker 5: is removed, obviously, you're taking the chance of you know,

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Speaker 5: the line not getting better. But sometimes the best bet

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Speaker 5: is the one you don't make. So I'm willing to

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Speaker 5: willing to hold my hold my money until then.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's why you know. Of the four bets that

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Speaker 4: I mentioned, I like the Blades with the over half

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Speaker 4: around because if Blades does get that, Pavlovich is very reckless.

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Speaker 4: It's going to come right at Blades. If Blades shoots

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Speaker 4: that reactive takedown gets it, I still think it probably

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Speaker 4: takes him a couple of minutes to finish the fight.

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Speaker 4: He's going to be careful consolidating in that position, not

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Speaker 4: like a you know, crazy black belt where he's immediately

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Speaker 4: going to wrap up an arm tryinggle or something. I

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Speaker 4: think it's still going to take them two minutes to

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Speaker 4: finish that fight, even if he lands a take down

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Speaker 4: first thirty seconds. So Blades with the over half around

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Speaker 4: at minus one oh five I think covers the most

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Speaker 4: amount of outcomes in this fight. But if you want

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Speaker 4: to play Pavolis early into a Blades live bet, I

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Speaker 4: think that's a very fine way to play it as well.

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Speaker 1: Okay, there's your main event preview. Pavlevich Blades onto our

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Speaker 1: favorite underdog that we might like for the weekend, We'll

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Speaker 1: go to Zirilla first.

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Speaker 4: What do you got, Yeah, Priscilla Katchiuera not so dissimilar

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Speaker 4: of a fighter from Sergei Pavlovich, honestly, very reckless, going

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Speaker 4: to come forward and shuck hands, and typically in the

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Speaker 4: lower weight classes and the women's divisions happen to cover

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Speaker 4: all of the lower weight classes, being one fifteen to

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Speaker 4: one forty five, we see fewer finishes and physicality and

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Speaker 4: aggression tends the matter more, and Priscilla Catchuera encompasses that

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Speaker 4: more than almost any other fighter in the woman's division.

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Speaker 4: She presses forward constantly, she throws very hard, she puts

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Speaker 4: a lot of damage on her opponents. She's fighting Kareem Silva,

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Speaker 4: who is a Brazilian Jiu Jessy black belt, has a

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Speaker 4: severe grappling advantage similar to Pavolich. Kachua is not a

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Speaker 4: good defensive grappler and can get put on her back

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Speaker 4: and submitted, but she's willing to cheat if she gets

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Speaker 4: put on her back. She eye gouged Jillian Robertson and

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Speaker 4: she's dirty, but that's kind of what you want, and

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Speaker 4: a fighter you're going to back. They will do whatever

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Speaker 4: it takes to win, and frankly, I don't think fighters

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Speaker 4: foul enough or cheat enough at the UFC level. It

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Speaker 4: always takes like one warning and then one stern warning

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Speaker 4: before they're even given a point deduction after cheating. So

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Speaker 4: if I was an MMA fighter at the professional level,

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Speaker 4: I would definitely be trying to implement cheating tactics and

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Speaker 4: trying to gain an edge wherever possible, and I think

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Speaker 4: Priscilla Catchuea definitely does that. But in a fight that extends,

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Speaker 4: I think she's the better minute winner. On the damage,

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Speaker 4: she's very likely to get taken down and submitted immediately,

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Speaker 4: but in any fight that extends, I think it does

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Speaker 4: favor her actually, not only in volume cardio, but just

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Speaker 4: on pure damage optics. So Catchuera on the money line,

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Speaker 4: Catchuera alive after round one because her opponent Creeen Silva.

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Speaker 4: The one time she's been extended past a round and

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Speaker 4: a half, she lost. So we see a lot of

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Speaker 4: these fighters with early finishes come up, move up in

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Speaker 4: competition to that UFC level, finally get a little resistance

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Speaker 4: from a fighter who knows what they're doing, and get

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Speaker 4: extended in those fights. So catchweer on the money line

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Speaker 4: pre fight probably or I would say definitely is more

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Speaker 4: finishing up sid and feet and comparable to what Silva

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Speaker 4: has in the mat, but also live after round one

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Speaker 4: I think is a solid angle to play catchuwear as well.

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Speaker 1: Hey, from Kareem Silva to Bruno Silva and that is

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Speaker 1: Billy's pick for his underdog, and he's got a write up.

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Speaker 1: As I mentioned, he's got the luck ratings up right

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Speaker 1: now and despite a setback last time out Silva, Billy

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Speaker 1: has burst onto the scene here and that's why you

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Speaker 1: still like him.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, before we jump into that one, just wanted to

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Speaker 5: say fully wish on I have a catchawhere about later

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Speaker 5: and yeah, you should always cheat an MMA. You're you

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Speaker 5: basically get to do one of each type of foul

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Speaker 5: before you face anything. So groin strike doesn't really matter.

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Speaker 5: In the female fight, cage grab, ipoke, you can do

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Speaker 5: each of them one time before anything bad happens. So

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Speaker 5: you know, when we're handicapping, maybe we do take the

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Speaker 5: people willing to cheat a little bit because nothing really

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Speaker 5: bad happens, you know. But anyway, onto the.

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Speaker 3: It's it's a bit of a different tone on this pod.

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Speaker 1: Because when Zerulo you know, talks about baseball, he highlights

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Speaker 1: guys that used to use sticky stuff. In Max Scherzer's case,

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Speaker 1: he still does. Or if you're listening to our NBA podcast, Buckets,

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Speaker 1: beware of guys wanting to drop knees on people because

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Speaker 1: then they might not play the next game. So that

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Speaker 1: this is actually a case where we can use it

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Speaker 1: to our advantage.

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Speaker 5: So you can probably even get away with one knee

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Speaker 5: on the ground unless it's too hard in an MMA

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Speaker 5: fight without too many major consequences. But anyway, back to

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Speaker 5: Bruno Silva, Yeah, it's simply he won three straight fights

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Speaker 5: in the UFC by first round knockout. Lower level of

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Speaker 5: competition fights Alex Pejea in what was clearly a showcase

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Speaker 5: fight for Peja, takes him to a decision. Mixes in

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Speaker 5: his wrestling. He's a BJJ black belt. I'm not sure

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Speaker 5: about Silva's wrestling because taking down Alex Pajea isn't a

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Speaker 5: huge accomplishment. But he's fighting a guy in Brad Tavares

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Speaker 5: who's pretty one dimensional striker and has almost no power.

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Speaker 5: His knockdown rate is lower than the entire UFC is average,

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Speaker 5: not the divisional average, you know, the average that includes

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Speaker 5: hundred and fifteen pound female fighters less knockdowns than them

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Speaker 5: on average. So that's not a great style when you're

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Speaker 5: going against a guy who has big power and potentially

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Speaker 5: a grappling edge. Of course, it all comes down to

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Speaker 5: his last fight, Silvia's that is against Gerald Milsharp. He

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Speaker 5: looked terrible. He was winging wide punches, gased out early,

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Speaker 5: got finished at plus money. I'm just willing to overlook

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Speaker 5: that one, right. You know, everyone has a bad day.

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Speaker 5: It's not like we have, you know, a full baseball

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Speaker 5: or NBA season where we have you know, a big

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Speaker 5: sample size here. Guy might have been sick, might have

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Speaker 5: been hurt, might have been beat up after the pay

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Speaker 5: A fight. It was kind of a quick turnaround. Any

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Speaker 5: of that could have happened the other angle. I'm playing

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Speaker 5: in this one, and keep an eye on prop squad later.

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Speaker 5: I actually like this fight to end in split or

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Speaker 5: majority decision. At plus six hundred. Tavares is probably going

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Speaker 5: to land more strikes than Bruno Silva. Silva is going

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Speaker 5: to land the harder strikes and also has some grappling

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Speaker 5: edge that's hard to judge. I'd feel even better about

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Speaker 5: this line if we were in Missouri or Texas or

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Speaker 5: somewhere with horrible judging, but that one's plus six hundred.

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Speaker 5: I really like that, just because you know, it's kind

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Speaker 5: of down to the individual judges whether three light strikes

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Speaker 5: equals one heavy strike or something to that effect, which

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Speaker 5: is how I see the likeliest outcome here. But in

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Speaker 5: terms of a money on play, Silva has all the

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Speaker 5: finishing upside, both on the ground and standing, So at

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Speaker 5: plus money, I'll take that.

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00:14:54,360 --> 00:14:57,120
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Speaker 1: Nevada and New York. Onto the fight of the Jeremiah

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Speaker 1: Wells Matthew Semelsberger to welterweight hitters getting set to square

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Speaker 1: off this coming weekend.

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Speaker 3: Taking a look.

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Speaker 1: At the lines at fan Duel Wells minus won twelve,

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Speaker 1: Semelsburger minus one eight. Little momentum coming in here for Wells.

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Speaker 1: He's gone three for four so far in UFC.

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Speaker 3: Zarrillo.

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Speaker 1: How do you assess this fight and why does it

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Speaker 1: jump out to is one you'd like to bet?

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Speaker 3: And how will you bet it?

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Speaker 5: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I think because Jeremiah Wells is just so explosive and

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Speaker 4: matt Selmalsberger seems pretty durable. The idea that Wells should

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Speaker 4: have early success here because he does against almost every opponent.

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Speaker 4: He's so incredibly explosive and athletic in the first round.

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Speaker 4: The idea that he could knock Semalsburger out or take

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Speaker 4: him down and submit him, I think is pretty exciting

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Speaker 4: because I would think that most fans be Semalsberger former

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Speaker 4: football player, guy who could take a lot of power

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Speaker 4: on a punch as very durable and very tough to

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Speaker 4: get out there, but Wells is very capable of doing

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Speaker 4: It comes from a Philly gym that we've seen have

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Speaker 4: a ton of success in the UFC Renzo Gracie, but

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Speaker 4: we have seen Wells struggle when he gets extended. So

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Speaker 4: I think there is a possibility here as well that

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Speaker 4: Semmelsberger loses round one, potentially even gets dominated ten eighted,

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Speaker 4: knocked down, dominated on the ground, controlled for an extended

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Speaker 4: period of time, does nothing offensively, but then rallies in

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Speaker 4: the second and third round. So I like Matthew Semmelsberger

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Speaker 4: here live after round one. Would consider him as a

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Speaker 4: pre fight minding line bet, but he's so likely to

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Speaker 4: lose that first round to Wells, I'm not as interested

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Speaker 4: in playing it. I think the live angle is the

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Speaker 4: better play. Maybe also a same game parlay with Semmelsberger

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Speaker 4: in over one and a half or Semmelsberger's late props

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Speaker 4: round two round three, but live after round one I

338
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Speaker 4: think the best way to play him. I view him

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Speaker 4: as the better volume striker, probably the better technical striker.

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Speaker 4: He hits hard to Wells is just I mean, an

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Speaker 4: absolute tank he seems to touch people and they go

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Speaker 4: to sleep. When he wraps them up, He's able to

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Speaker 4: pull them down to the ground rather easily. He's a

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Speaker 4: phenomenal grappler. He hits very hard. I just think over

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Speaker 4: the course of a fifteen minute fight, there is a

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Speaker 4: reason why this is lined as a pick them. Wells

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00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:22,400
Speaker 4: should be a bigger favorite after round one. I think

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Speaker 4: you jump in on Semalsberger round plus two hundred or higher.

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Speaker 4: So Semelsberger after round one how i'd play this fight,

350
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Speaker 4: but I expect to go to one, and I think

351
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Speaker 4: Wells is a high chance to finish here in round one.

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Speaker 4: If you're playing DFS, I would definitely be using both

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Speaker 4: of them.

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Speaker 1: All right, Well's coming in on a short win streak, Billy,

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00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:39,560
Speaker 1: and just reading from your luck ratings right up, you

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Speaker 1: were a tad surprised that this was a tight line.

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Speaker 5: I am, and you know, I hear all of Sean's

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Speaker 5: analysis and he makes some good points. I usually come

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00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:52,720
Speaker 5: with some a little bit more in depth support for

360
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Speaker 5: my positions in this one. But man, Wells is just

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00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:57,919
Speaker 5: so much better than Matthew Semmelsberger. Like Semlsberger is a

362
00:17:57,920 --> 00:18:00,159
Speaker 5: good athlete. He played you know somewhat high low well

363
00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:04,040
Speaker 5: college football, tough, whatever, but skill for skill, Wells is

364
00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:07,000
Speaker 5: better everywhere. I think he's the better striker. We can

365
00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:09,840
Speaker 5: argue power, I don't you know that. I'm not too

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Speaker 5: worried about that. But Wells is just a phenomenal grapher grappler.

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Speaker 5: The Henzo Gracy Philly guys always just continue to mold

368
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Speaker 5: people on the ground. You know, Wells is three to

369
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Speaker 5: zero the UFC all finishes. But if you look back

370
00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:23,480
Speaker 5: prior to his UFC career, he has some you know,

371
00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:27,399
Speaker 5: five round decisions for regional championships and fairly high level fights.

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Speaker 5: He fought some future UFC guys before he even got

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Speaker 5: to the UFC. I'm really high on the Henso Gracy

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Speaker 5: Philly guys generally, but Wells is my favorite of the bunch.

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Speaker 5: I've also watched a ton of tape on him. I've

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Speaker 5: been booked to fight him at a couple times a

377
00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:44,119
Speaker 5: couple different points in our respective regional careers, so followed

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00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,080
Speaker 5: him really closely. I like Matthew Semmelsberger, He's a fun

379
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Speaker 5: fight guy, but Well's is another one. Just because we

380
00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:52,080
Speaker 5: haven't seen him go along into fights doesn't mean he can't,

381
00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:53,840
Speaker 5: and if you look back a little bit into his

382
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Speaker 5: regional career, we actually have seen him do that and

383
00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:58,840
Speaker 5: hold up pretty pretty well. So I'm not as worried

384
00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:01,240
Speaker 5: about his cardio. I think have enough of an advantage,

385
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Speaker 5: and if this one hits the ground at all, he's

386
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Speaker 5: just many, many levels ahead of Matthew Semmlsberger.

387
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Speaker 4: That's terrifying that you were scheduled to fight Jeremi Wells.

388
00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:12,000
Speaker 4: I would guess he's like twice your size. We both

389
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Speaker 4: thought what I would have assumed.

390
00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:15,440
Speaker 5: I got a few inches on him. We both fought

391
00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:18,080
Speaker 5: one seventy. He would have slaughtered me, but we had

392
00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:21,480
Speaker 5: We had an amateur opponent in common who I beat

393
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Speaker 5: and he did not. It was like his first fight ever,

394
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Speaker 5: so I was kind of using that to try to

395
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Speaker 5: talk up get some big money from one of the

396
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Speaker 5: bigger regional promotions. Everyone involved knows how that one would

397
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:30,600
Speaker 5: have gone.

398
00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:33,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, you probably saved yourself a bad knockout, but I did.

399
00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:34,679
Speaker 4: It almost happened.

400
00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:37,720
Speaker 5: Pretty glad it didn't happen. But point being, I've watched

401
00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:39,719
Speaker 5: literally every one of his fights over and over, so

402
00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:41,520
Speaker 5: I do have some insight info on that one.

403
00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:43,000
Speaker 3: Billy hotel.

404
00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:46,600
Speaker 5: Are you that's six foot Okay, he's only five to

405
00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:48,720
Speaker 5: nine yeah, yeah, but he's built like a truck.

406
00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:50,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, he's a tank. Yeah.

407
00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:52,520
Speaker 3: Well what would that make you built?

408
00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:52,639
Speaker 4: Like?

409
00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:54,440
Speaker 3: If you had to give yourself a comp.

410
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:56,199
Speaker 5: When I was fighting one seventy a.

411
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Speaker 3: Stick, all right, I would have taken wells.

412
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:01,879
Speaker 5: Yeah, no, as you should up. It would have been

413
00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:02,879
Speaker 5: minus ten thousand.

414
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:07,119
Speaker 3: Okay, good, good insight.

415
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:09,960
Speaker 1: We really dive into Billy's fighting career on the pod,

416
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Speaker 1: so it's good to turn.

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Speaker 3: Back the clock.

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Speaker 1: Okay, we've got props and then bett the best bet

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Speaker 1: before we leave.

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Speaker 3: Let's go to props. Zorillo, what do you have.

421
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:18,440
Speaker 5: For us.

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00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:22,679
Speaker 4: First fight of the card? Which I'm typically terrible at betting,

423
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:26,000
Speaker 4: but this is a I guess say higher level fight

424
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,439
Speaker 4: than what we typically see from the first fight on

425
00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:31,159
Speaker 4: the card. We usually don't have any data for the

426
00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 4: first fighters on the UFC card. They're glorified Contender Series fights.

427
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:40,480
Speaker 4: But Bakery Dena Jana Backery, however, you want to organize

428
00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:43,320
Speaker 4: his name against Brady high Stand, who was in the

429
00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:48,920
Speaker 4: Ultimate Fighter finale. Dinah has decent wrestling and I think

430
00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:52,680
Speaker 4: enough wrestling to resist high Stand early and put him

431
00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:55,600
Speaker 4: in serious danger on the feed. Better technical striker, much

432
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,080
Speaker 4: more power, hits very hard, and I do not like

433
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:00,919
Speaker 4: the way that high Stand has react to strikes in

434
00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 4: the past. He seems like a durable kid, but he's very,

435
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:07,640
Speaker 4: very hittable, and he's gonna get clipped hard and often here,

436
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:09,679
Speaker 4: I think, particularly in the first round. So did not

437
00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:13,760
Speaker 4: inside the distance by knockout, maybe even his round one

438
00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:16,600
Speaker 4: props as well. I'm going to consider playing all of those.

439
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,159
Speaker 4: This seems like a big step up in competition for

440
00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:22,520
Speaker 4: high Stand. He's improving, shoots takedowns at a high clip,

441
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:24,880
Speaker 4: would not touch the NAS money line because I think

442
00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,159
Speaker 4: over the course of fifteen minutes there's a chance that

443
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:30,920
Speaker 4: high Stand, especially if he's improved, could absolutely destroy him

444
00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:33,480
Speaker 4: with wrestling. But he's not able to get those takedowns.

445
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 4: I think he gets finished. So Backery did not inside

446
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:40,439
Speaker 4: the distance knockout, maybe his round one prop as well.

447
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:42,760
Speaker 1: Billy, as you mentioned, you're gonna go back to Zerillo's

448
00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:43,640
Speaker 1: underdog pick.

449
00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:45,960
Speaker 3: But you have an angle in the prop market.

450
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:49,160
Speaker 5: Yeah. Priscilla Catchaweera, a zombie girl as we call her.

451
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 5: I'm just taking her round one line. That's as highest

452
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:55,800
Speaker 5: plus six hundred. The thesis here is Korean Silva hasn't

453
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,480
Speaker 5: fought anyone who's going to come forward as aggressively and

454
00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 5: blitz her the way Ketchawea, because there really isn't any

455
00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:04,600
Speaker 5: or not many female fighters who just go with that

456
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 5: kind of reckless abandon and have the power to match it.

457
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:09,919
Speaker 5: We've seen some, you know, I talked about who was

458
00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 5: it a few weeks ago who does a similar thing

459
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,520
Speaker 5: but doesn't really have the power. Luanna Pinero, similar style

460
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:18,680
Speaker 5: but minus the power. Ketchawea has both, and we're gonna

461
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:20,359
Speaker 5: know right away if Korean Silva can hold up to

462
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:22,880
Speaker 5: that or not she survives the blitz, she's probably gonna

463
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,400
Speaker 5: work her. She's the better, far better grappler, maybe even

464
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 5: better technical striker. But you know, I just don't see

465
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:32,399
Speaker 5: Ketchawaea winning fifteen minutes here. There's a chance, you know,

466
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 5: started the second round, start of the third round, that

467
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 5: she gets another blitz in before she gets taken down

468
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:38,879
Speaker 5: and maybe one of those sticks, but plus six hundred

469
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,359
Speaker 5: is just too good. In the first round. Silva probably

470
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 5: wins this one more technical fighter, but it'll be a

471
00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 5: scary forty five seconds or so if you're on the

472
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 5: silver side, So I like that. Plus six hundred for Ketchawea.

473
00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:54,440
Speaker 1: Okay, And before we go, best bets for UFC Vegas

474
00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:56,000
Speaker 1: seventy one.

475
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:56,600
Speaker 4: So rollo.

476
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,200
Speaker 3: I've been building up to this. Now is this best bet?

477
00:22:59,440 --> 00:22:59,879
Speaker 3: Your best bet?

478
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:00,119
Speaker 1: Ye?

479
00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 4: It's not. You know, I didn't even have a best

480
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:06,240
Speaker 4: bet in the document until about two minutes before the show. Yeah,

481
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:09,160
Speaker 4: just with the way we format the show, in addition

482
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 4: to the fact that there's hardly anything on this card

483
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:13,920
Speaker 4: that I want to bet. Maybe Catcher is my best bet.

484
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,639
Speaker 4: But I think this is a good card for live betting. Actually,

485
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:20,200
Speaker 4: it's a very very good card for live betting. We

486
00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:23,399
Speaker 4: already talked about the few of the angles Sergei or

487
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:26,399
Speaker 4: the Blades over Pavlovich I think is a fine live bet,

488
00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:30,680
Speaker 4: Semmelsberger over Wells. I'm not sure if Billy would agree

489
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:37,120
Speaker 4: with that. Montel Jackson against Ronnie yah ya. And there

490
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 4: is also you know, catch Tower over Silver I think

491
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:42,480
Speaker 4: could be a good live betting spot as well, just

492
00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 4: because Silva when she gets extended to struggled. But my

493
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 4: favorite of the live betting spots is Ricky Glenn going

494
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:53,159
Speaker 4: against Christos Giagos. Both Gago's brothers have about six or

495
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,879
Speaker 4: seven minutes of cardio and then they completely fall off

496
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,359
Speaker 4: a cliff. Christos has been finished in seven of his

497
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 4: ten losses. Typically either needs to get a takedown in

498
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:05,040
Speaker 4: two of the three rounds and hold you there, or

499
00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 4: finish the fight early. Ricky Glenn is exactly the type

500
00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 4: of fighter who was built to withstand early damage or

501
00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:15,879
Speaker 4: early trouble and then rally to beat you. So Ricky

502
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:19,359
Speaker 4: Glenn live after round one my favorite live betting spot

503
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 4: on the card, probably the best overall betting spot on

504
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 4: the card when you think about where the odds might move.

505
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:27,119
Speaker 4: If he's taken down a control for five minutes, probably

506
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 4: going to flip from a favorite to an underdog, and

507
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:31,639
Speaker 4: then he's going to look like a favorite over the

508
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,199
Speaker 4: final two rounds. But I also like Glenn to win

509
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 4: in round two at plus eight fifty and Glenna win

510
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:40,120
Speaker 4: in round three, and I believe plus fourteen hundred any

511
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 4: of the numbers in that ranger fine plus seven to

512
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:46,120
Speaker 4: fifty in round round two, plus one thousand in round three,

513
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 4: I think I would take just given the cardio dynamics

514
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 4: of the fight. Given the car cardio dynamics of both

515
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:55,199
Speaker 4: Giago's brothers, the fact that they've never improved their cardio

516
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:57,920
Speaker 4: base either. I think this fight is a high chance

517
00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:01,200
Speaker 4: of being finished in round two, round three by Ricky

518
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:04,160
Speaker 4: Glenz so Glenn live after round one and is late props.

519
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:07,920
Speaker 4: My favorite live betting angle on this card. Not necessarily

520
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 4: my favorite bet, but something actually do like quite a bit.

521
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:15,439
Speaker 1: Okay, good stuff, Billy, You've got a moneyline play and

522
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 1: then we're out of here.

523
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 5: Yeah. Absolutely not my best bet either. Might have been

524
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:23,280
Speaker 5: on Monday or so when she was still at plus money,

525
00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:25,160
Speaker 5: but now it's moved to be about to pick them.

526
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:27,160
Speaker 5: Still like the bet, just not you know, that high

527
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 5: degree of confidence, and that's normal. Dumont fighting Carol JSA.

528
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:33,199
Speaker 5: This is a featherweight fight where Dumont has fought the

529
00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:35,920
Speaker 5: bulk of her career. Jose has been a bantam wait

530
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,919
Speaker 5: for a while. Stepping up this might be better for her.

531
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:40,399
Speaker 5: It might give her a little more guest tank with

532
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 5: less of a weight cut, or she's just going to

533
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 5: be too small and get bullied a little bit. And

534
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:46,879
Speaker 5: they have very similar records too, so it's not like

535
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:49,040
Speaker 5: she's had a ton more success than this. Stepping up

536
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:51,960
Speaker 5: Also Dumont's only loss in her last five was a

537
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 5: split decision against Macy Chiason probably butchered that one. But

538
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 5: you know, so we've seen her have one have success

539
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 5: in this division, another one hasn't, and it's about to

540
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:05,879
Speaker 5: pick them. So still like that, you know, wish that

541
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 5: line would have stayed plus money on the Dumont side,

542
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 5: but I think she should be a slightly heavier favorite

543
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 5: just based on the way that she's lost fights in

544
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:12,520
Speaker 5: the weight class.

545
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:14,680
Speaker 4: Optics here, I feel like I need to comment just

546
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 4: because I'm a huge Carol Hosa fan, which I feel

547
00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 4: like there's not many Caroljsa fans out there that would

548
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:22,480
Speaker 4: be the one I know. So cardio never an issue

549
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 4: for her fights. It really high volume. Going up in

550
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 4: weight isn't necessarily going to help her game. She already

551
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:32,360
Speaker 4: throws a ton of strikes and has great cardio over

552
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 4: fifteen minutes. The size differential not super concerned about. They

553
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:38,440
Speaker 4: have the same reach, Dumont's two inches taller. She does

554
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 4: hit harder though Dumont, and also has all of the

555
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 4: grappling upside in a pick them fight, Really, it just

556
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 4: comes down to Dumont's enthusiast does she want to wrestle,

557
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 4: Does she want to put Rosa on her back? Because

558
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,639
Speaker 4: if she wants to, she can, and she could probably

559
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 4: hold host of there. But if she decides to stand

560
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 4: up and strike for fifteen minutes, which Dumont has been

561
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 4: known to do in the past, I think Hosa can

562
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:00,879
Speaker 4: pace her and win on volume of the fifteen minutes.

563
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 4: So this all comes down to Dumont's willingness to grapple,

564
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:07,920
Speaker 4: which she always you know, doesn't typically do in every

565
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 4: one of her fights. But if she fights smart, she

566
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:10,960
Speaker 4: should win.

567
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 5: This, and that grappling is also where in my opinion,

568
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 5: at least, the weight advantage matters a lot more. You know,

569
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 5: you can knock out someone bigger than you, but getting

570
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 5: out from under someone bigger than you, even if it's

571
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 5: only five or ten pounds, it's a ten pounds jumping

572
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:24,440
Speaker 5: weight class. But we got to remember I always try

573
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:26,639
Speaker 5: to think of that percentage wise. You know, going up

574
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,680
Speaker 5: from one eighty five to two oh five proportionately isn't

575
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 5: that much different than you know, the ten pounds for

576
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,399
Speaker 5: smaller people, just in terms of percentage of body weight. So,

577
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:36,920
Speaker 5: as Sean pointed out, might not matter if he doesn't

578
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 5: grapple probably matters a ton if she does grapple, so

579
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,199
Speaker 5: we'll see. But at a pickam price, I'm okay with it.

580
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:43,960
Speaker 5: Would have loved to have the plus money. But here

581
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 5: we are.

582
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 3: Hey, there you go, UFC Vegas seventy one.

583
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:51,200
Speaker 1: You're betting preview real quick, ten seconds, Billy, any update

584
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 1: on the Internet court?

585
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 2: Uh?

586
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 5: It was great. The guy came out Friday night. The

587
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 5: dogs have managed to stay away from it. Yeah, yeah,

588
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 5: we're doing good. Hence coming at you live with video

589
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:01,160
Speaker 5: this week.

590
00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:01,920
Speaker 3: Good to see your face.

591
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 1: I mean I do miss the professional talk radio feel

592
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 1: to what you brought to the table last week. So

593
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 1: maybe you can fake an internet break or an internet

594
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 1: cable break soon we can get that awesome sports talk

595
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:15,439
Speaker 1: radio kind of call.

596
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:19,679
Speaker 3: In voice from you, because you sounded really legit. AnyWho, Okay,

597
00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 3: that's it. Sean Zarella Billy Ward.

598
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 1: Find them both in the Action Network app if they

599
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 1: have any laid ads?

600
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 3: Is Zerrilla highlighted?

601
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 1: Live betting is a possibility something to consider for this

602
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 1: weekend's card, so be on the lookout if you would

603
00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:36,359
Speaker 1: want to get more analysis and picks there in the

604
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 1: free award.

605
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 3: Winning Action Network app.

606
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 1: A couple of housekeeping notes before we go, you want

607
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:45,400
Speaker 1: to check out Billy Ward is got We talked about

608
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 1: his luck ratings quite a bit on this show, of course,

609
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:52,200
Speaker 1: for UFC Baseball from Billy Ward no run first inning,

610
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 1: Yes run first inning write ups over on.

611
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 3: The Action Network website Action Network app.

612
00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:59,080
Speaker 1: Billy's been putting those out on a regular basis for

613
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 1: the baseball season, Seanzrello Opening Pitch you can find his

614
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 1: writeups there almost every day, not every day, but for

615
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 1: most baseball betting cards. This season, Zarrella will have opening

616
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:12,840
Speaker 1: Pitch extensive breakdown picks as well for baseball slates. Also,

617
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 1: next week, NFL Draft gets underway. Starting Thursday, we'll have

618
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 1: our final mock draft episode Luke Swayne aka Vegas Refund.

619
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 1: He'll be joined by the Fantasylag Guy and myself. We're

620
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 1: coming out with the pod. Tuesday Morning Draft is Thursday

621
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 1: Tuesday Morning Mock Draft episode. Plus we'll have one last

622
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 1: betting update episode next Wednesday prior.

623
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:38,840
Speaker 3: To Thursday's first round.

624
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 1: So be on the lookout for NFL Draft twenty twenty

625
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 1: three coverage from Action Network next week here in the pod.

626
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening, everybody, have a great weekend.

627
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 1: Enjoy happy betting, and thanks for listening to the Action

628
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 1: Network podcast presented by fan Duel.

629
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:59,480
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gambler responsibly.

630
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

631
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred

632
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Speaker 1: gambler