WEBVTT - The Race to Control the Arctic 0:00:01.760 --> 0:00:05.240 Welcome to Crash Course, a podcast about business, political, and 0:00:05.280 --> 0:00:08.920 social disruption and what we can learn from it. I'm 0:00:08.960 --> 0:00:13.800 Tim O'Brien. Today's crash Course. The race to control the Arctic. 0:00:14.680 --> 0:00:18.759 Alaska has been an object of fascination, exploration, and exploitation 0:00:19.200 --> 0:00:23.520 for nearly two centuries, but its most inhospitable reaches. Those 0:00:23.560 --> 0:00:26.479 that creep toward the Arctic circle mile by frozen mile, 0:00:26.920 --> 0:00:29.200 have managed to hold onto their secrets for a very 0:00:29.240 --> 0:00:33.680 long time. Ice, plunging temperatures and brutal tundras have kept 0:00:33.680 --> 0:00:37.839 outsiders at bay. That's all shifting now. Climate change is 0:00:37.880 --> 0:00:42.400 warmly Arctics formidable barriers sparking at geopolitical and commercial foot race. 0:00:42.880 --> 0:00:46.000 The US, China, and Russia are scrambling for access to 0:00:46.040 --> 0:00:50.960 precious resources like oil, gold, and rare earth metals. Russia 0:00:51.000 --> 0:00:53.880 is ramping up its military presence in the region, China 0:00:53.960 --> 0:00:57.280 is now a self described near Arctic nation, and the 0:00:57.400 --> 0:00:59.920 US is rushing to gain what its military describes as 0:01:00.280 --> 0:01:04.240 Arctic dominance. Conoco Phillips, the US oil giant that is 0:01:04.240 --> 0:01:07.840 Alaska's largest producer of crude oil, recently won White House 0:01:07.840 --> 0:01:11.039 approval to forge ahead with its Willow drilling project on 0:01:11.120 --> 0:01:16.240 Alaska's North slope. Meanwhile, Alaska's fisheries, which account for more 0:01:16.280 --> 0:01:20.160 annual catch than the rest of the US's other coastlines combined, 0:01:20.760 --> 0:01:25.040 are becoming increasingly stressed. Average Alaskans, wrestling with the twin 0:01:25.120 --> 0:01:28.800 threats of food insecurity and their attachment to storied livelihoods 0:01:28.840 --> 0:01:32.399 tied to fishing, are balking at further entrenchment of large 0:01:32.400 --> 0:01:36.840 commercial operators. There is, as they say, a story here. 0:01:37.520 --> 0:01:40.360 Joining me today is Liam Denning. Liam is an energy 0:01:40.400 --> 0:01:43.399 and climate columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, and he's pulled off 0:01:43.440 --> 0:01:46.200 something very rare and very hard to do. He has 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:49.760 repeatedly traveled to the Arctic to tell this tale. Liam 0:01:49.840 --> 0:01:52.400 is a wonderful writer and a keen observer of money, 0:01:52.960 --> 0:01:57.920 power and people. Liam, welcome to crash Course, great spage. 0:01:59.000 --> 0:02:01.840 So work on all this has so far resulted in 0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:05.200 three stellar features adorned with beautiful photos from Louis Palou, 0:02:05.320 --> 0:02:08.680 an award winning photographer who has spent years covering the region. 0:02:09.160 --> 0:02:11.520 You've written one about the military ramp up in the Arctic, 0:02:11.840 --> 0:02:17.040 one about energy exploration, and another recently published about Alaska's fisheries. 0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:21.160 So we'll follow suit and build this episode around that troika. 0:02:21.560 --> 0:02:24.560 But first things first, how and when did you decide 0:02:24.600 --> 0:02:26.800 to go to the Arctic and nail down all of this? 0:02:27.840 --> 0:02:30.760 Well, Tim, as you know, this goes back quite a 0:02:30.800 --> 0:02:32.960 long way. Louis and I, who've known each other for 0:02:33.720 --> 0:02:36.720 I guess about fifteen years now, first began discussing this 0:02:37.040 --> 0:02:40.160 seven or eight years ago, I believe, and I began 0:02:40.240 --> 0:02:43.639 discussing it with you and Bloomberg in general, I think 0:02:43.680 --> 0:02:46.880 in twenty eighteen, and we actually had it teed up 0:02:47.240 --> 0:02:51.000 just before COVID hit, which then inevitably shut everything down. 0:02:51.520 --> 0:02:54.200 And then about a year ago, thinking we could pull 0:02:54.240 --> 0:02:57.360 it off once again, we began to reach out to 0:02:57.680 --> 0:03:01.800 the US Army and other key players in Alaska. And 0:03:01.880 --> 0:03:04.080 to be honest, I'm pinching myself thinking that we actually 0:03:04.120 --> 0:03:07.239 managed to pull it off. It's been quite the logistical lift. 0:03:07.280 --> 0:03:09.000 Well, and you had to reach out to all of 0:03:09.000 --> 0:03:13.880 those stakeholders, the military, the energy companies, local fishing communities 0:03:14.440 --> 0:03:17.000 in order to embed yourself to sort of get there, 0:03:17.800 --> 0:03:19.919 buy in to have you come up there and spend time. 0:03:19.960 --> 0:03:22.160 And then you had to figure out how to get there, 0:03:22.200 --> 0:03:24.400 how to fly there, how to arrange all the various 0:03:25.080 --> 0:03:27.080 legs of each flight that took you there, which was 0:03:27.120 --> 0:03:30.239 its own sort of logistical nightmare, wasn't it. That's right? 0:03:30.280 --> 0:03:31.839 I mean, I think one of the things you learned 0:03:31.919 --> 0:03:35.480 quite quickly is that Alaska is a US state, but 0:03:35.960 --> 0:03:38.400 it's not the kind of place you can just rock 0:03:38.520 --> 0:03:41.600 up to and look around. You know, it's vast. A 0:03:41.600 --> 0:03:44.360 lot of it isn't covered by a road network, particularly 0:03:44.360 --> 0:03:47.080 for example, the North Slope where the oil operations are, 0:03:47.160 --> 0:03:49.680 you physically just can't get there. You have to, you know, 0:03:49.720 --> 0:03:53.320 negotiate access, and similar with a lot of the Alaska 0:03:53.400 --> 0:03:55.560 Native villages out in the west of the state. You 0:03:55.600 --> 0:03:57.560 need to get buy in before you really show up. 0:03:57.960 --> 0:03:59.920 And why was it important you to go through all that? 0:04:00.560 --> 0:04:03.240 Well, I think this goes back to the original reason, 0:04:03.480 --> 0:04:06.480 you know, Louis and I wanted to do this project was, 0:04:07.240 --> 0:04:10.080 you know, we felt that the Arctic is in some 0:04:10.120 --> 0:04:12.600 ways a kind of a grand blank canvas where we 0:04:12.680 --> 0:04:16.240 tend to project our narratives onto it, our ideas of 0:04:16.240 --> 0:04:19.599 what the Arctic is, and we felt that really to 0:04:19.680 --> 0:04:22.760 do it justice and to show our readers what it's 0:04:22.760 --> 0:04:24.559 really like there, you have to get on the ground. 0:04:24.680 --> 0:04:28.039 You have to go and see what it's like just 0:04:28.040 --> 0:04:30.279 to even get to the place, what it's like to 0:04:31.320 --> 0:04:35.320 feel the cold and the extreme temperatures there, what it's like, frankly, 0:04:35.440 --> 0:04:38.080 just to bulk up in five layers of clothing and 0:04:38.120 --> 0:04:41.240 try to do anything there. And so that element of 0:04:41.320 --> 0:04:43.320 reality was what we were going for. 0:04:43.960 --> 0:04:45.720 I'll just make a note to our listeners here. We'll 0:04:45.720 --> 0:04:48.520 have links all of Liam's stories in the notes to 0:04:48.560 --> 0:04:53.800 the episode. There. You'll find Louis Polo's gorgeous photography there, 0:04:54.080 --> 0:04:56.240 which will really give you a sense of the land 0:04:56.839 --> 0:04:59.920 and the environment that Liam covered and that they work 0:05:00.160 --> 0:05:02.960 very hard to overcome in order to get these incredible stories. 0:05:03.360 --> 0:05:06.919 So let's talk about the military foot race that's in 0:05:07.000 --> 0:05:10.680 motion there. You embedded with one of the airborne divisions 0:05:10.800 --> 0:05:15.039 of the US Army and watch them train. You talk 0:05:15.080 --> 0:05:17.880 with them about their strategy in the region. Talk a 0:05:17.920 --> 0:05:20.760 little bit about that. What is on the US military's 0:05:20.880 --> 0:05:23.920 mind right now and why are they ramping up their 0:05:23.920 --> 0:05:25.040 commitment to the Arctic. 0:05:25.800 --> 0:05:27.760 Well, I think one of the things you realize about 0:05:27.800 --> 0:05:30.920 Alaska's relationship with the rest of the US is that 0:05:31.600 --> 0:05:34.720 the Lower forty eight tends to remember that Alaska's there 0:05:35.279 --> 0:05:38.880 when it's feeling frightened about something. The classic example is 0:05:38.880 --> 0:05:42.640 the oil shock of the nineteen seventies when suddenly we decided, 0:05:42.800 --> 0:05:45.520 you know, we had to develop Alaskan oil. And similarly 0:05:45.520 --> 0:05:48.479 with the Cold War, and what's happened with Alaska so 0:05:48.680 --> 0:05:52.640 far this century is it became kind of a military 0:05:52.680 --> 0:05:56.520 backwater during the War on Terror, kind of a staging post, frankly, 0:05:56.600 --> 0:05:59.839 for divisions that were cycling in and out of Afghanistan. 0:06:00.520 --> 0:06:03.320 And a few things have changed that in recent times. 0:06:03.400 --> 0:06:08.520 One is China's assertion of what it euphemistically calls near 0:06:08.640 --> 0:06:11.680 Arctic status, which I just think is a gorgeous phrase. 0:06:12.160 --> 0:06:14.799 China is so big it could probably be near almost anything. 0:06:15.000 --> 0:06:20.760 I mean, exactly near South China, see near Japan, exactly 0:06:20.800 --> 0:06:23.640 near India, Russia. 0:06:23.320 --> 0:06:27.359 And I think that began to ring alarm bells in Washington. 0:06:27.960 --> 0:06:30.160 And at the same time the War on Terror itself 0:06:30.400 --> 0:06:34.480 was winding down for various reasons, we also saw Russia 0:06:35.120 --> 0:06:38.480 reopening its military bases, a lot of which had closed down. 0:06:38.640 --> 0:06:41.279 These are the ones in the Arctic, as part of 0:06:41.400 --> 0:06:46.360 President Vladimir Putin's general kind of turn northward towards the Arctic, 0:06:46.440 --> 0:06:49.479 particularly for its energy resources, and so I think the 0:06:49.600 --> 0:06:53.040 US is undergoing something of a Sputnik moment. It's remembering 0:06:53.080 --> 0:06:56.520 that Alaska is there, that it's a strategic salient, and 0:06:56.560 --> 0:07:01.880 that it is surrounded by potential ad or outright adversaries, 0:07:02.200 --> 0:07:04.120 you know, who might want to mess with that region. 0:07:04.160 --> 0:07:07.800 And so they've decided to reconstitute a division there, an 0:07:07.880 --> 0:07:10.120 army division. The eleventh their born, and those are the 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:13.080 guys we went and spent time on a mountain side 0:07:13.080 --> 0:07:14.000 with earlier this year. 0:07:14.400 --> 0:07:16.360 I want to ask you some more specifics about that. 0:07:16.480 --> 0:07:19.040 But you know, as you're describing all of these forces 0:07:19.080 --> 0:07:22.200 in motion around the Arctic right now, it's very reminiscent 0:07:22.240 --> 0:07:26.120 of the Great Game of the nineteenth century when European 0:07:26.160 --> 0:07:29.640 powers with scrambled to control Africa and parts of Asia. 0:07:29.760 --> 0:07:32.920 Of course, a game made it seem far less consequential 0:07:32.920 --> 0:07:35.600 than it was, but it was this sort of jostling 0:07:36.160 --> 0:07:41.520 for geographic power that hasn't really occurred very baldly like 0:07:41.640 --> 0:07:45.240 that since then. And it's certainly in play right now 0:07:45.320 --> 0:07:48.080 in the Arctic, and it does sort of capture the 0:07:48.160 --> 0:07:51.640 imagination on so many levels, because it's fast, because it's unknown, 0:07:51.800 --> 0:07:54.640 because it's so far away because there's this idea that 0:07:54.680 --> 0:07:57.680 there are riches at stake, because there's local populations who 0:07:57.680 --> 0:08:01.240 are going to get displaced inevitably, or one hopes at 0:08:01.280 --> 0:08:04.640 least not brutally or tragically. And it's unusual to me 0:08:04.720 --> 0:08:07.760 in that regard. There aren't that many forums left like 0:08:07.800 --> 0:08:09.800 this on the planet, that's right. 0:08:09.840 --> 0:08:12.760 I mean, Alaska is called the last Frontier for a reason, 0:08:12.800 --> 0:08:14.800 and in some ways it is kind of a throwback 0:08:15.200 --> 0:08:18.280 to an earlier rage. I mean, Alaska as a state 0:08:18.400 --> 0:08:22.320 has existed, particularly in the imagination of the Lower forty eight. 0:08:23.480 --> 0:08:27.120 Let's face it, really on two strategic dimensions. One is 0:08:27.680 --> 0:08:30.960 as a frontier facing other nations. It was obviously territory 0:08:31.000 --> 0:08:34.920 that was purchased from the Russians originally, but also as 0:08:35.440 --> 0:08:40.199 basically as a storehouse for commodities, you know, lumber, fish, zinc, 0:08:40.880 --> 0:08:44.400 oil especially, And that's generally how we've tended to think 0:08:44.480 --> 0:08:46.360 of Alaska in the Lower forty eight. And we have 0:08:46.400 --> 0:08:50.480 to remember it is the least visited state of all fifty. 0:08:50.679 --> 0:08:52.960 For most Americans, it's a place they will never go to. 0:08:53.520 --> 0:08:57.200 And originally it was Seward's folly when Lincoln, Secretary of State, 0:08:57.280 --> 0:09:00.000 made the purchase. Everyone thought that the Lincoln White House 0:09:00.120 --> 0:09:03.199 overspent and they'd never get the money back, so that 0:09:03.240 --> 0:09:05.920 proved be wrong. Yeah, it took about a century, gets 0:09:06.120 --> 0:09:08.680 a century, but there's still some unknown. So tell me 0:09:08.760 --> 0:09:11.959 what is the US military's goal there? 0:09:13.280 --> 0:09:15.760 So this is interesting because when I was there, I 0:09:15.800 --> 0:09:18.920 tried to pin them down, you know, from privates right 0:09:18.960 --> 0:09:22.520 the way up to Major General Brian Eifler, who commands 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:26.200 the eleventh there born on what the exact mission was. 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:31.280 This is an unsatisfying answer, somewhat vacant broad because you 0:09:31.360 --> 0:09:37.160 really don't know what the threat to Alaska might be. 0:09:37.440 --> 0:09:41.360 It seems incomprehensible that anyone would actually try to invade 0:09:41.800 --> 0:09:44.920 Alaska or take territory. It would probably end up being 0:09:44.920 --> 0:09:48.040 the biggest search and rescue operation in the history of 0:09:48.080 --> 0:09:50.840 the planet, just in terms of surviving. And that gets 0:09:50.880 --> 0:09:54.200 to really what their mission is at this moment. It's 0:09:54.280 --> 0:09:58.880 to train troops to survive. You know, when you get 0:09:58.920 --> 0:10:03.480 there and you see the not just the grandeur of 0:10:03.520 --> 0:10:07.160 the place, but just the sheer desolate aspect of it, 0:10:07.160 --> 0:10:11.640 the emptiness, it becomes clear to you that having anyone 0:10:11.720 --> 0:10:15.800 operate there requires all sorts of training just to live, 0:10:16.320 --> 0:10:19.640 not just to manage the cold and wearing your clothes 0:10:19.679 --> 0:10:22.040 properly and all that kind of thing, but making sure 0:10:22.080 --> 0:10:25.880 you eat enough, making sure you drink enough, making sure 0:10:26.120 --> 0:10:29.880 you don't use fingernail polish on your fingernails, because that's 0:10:29.920 --> 0:10:32.000 how you check for frostbite, and you can't do that 0:10:32.040 --> 0:10:34.600 if you're wearing lacquer. There are all sorts of things, 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:37.920 and Louie and I, to a very minimal extent, compared 0:10:37.920 --> 0:10:40.400 to the soldiers who were training, had to do a 0:10:40.440 --> 0:10:43.640 little bit of that ourselves. You have to reimagine how 0:10:43.679 --> 0:10:47.319 you're living day to day and take care of the basics. 0:10:47.640 --> 0:10:49.920 And I think that is the army's mission right now. 0:10:50.000 --> 0:10:54.000 It's to regain a muscle that was lost maybe twenty 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:56.000 or thirty years ago, around the time of the end 0:10:56.080 --> 0:10:59.680 of the Cold War. So that as and when something happens, 0:10:59.679 --> 0:11:04.640 whether it's sabotage, whether it's a foreign fishing fleet showing 0:11:04.679 --> 0:11:07.120 up where they're not supposed to, whether it's a spy 0:11:07.200 --> 0:11:10.520 balloon showing up when it's not supposed to, that they 0:11:10.559 --> 0:11:13.040 have people on the ground both acting as a credible 0:11:13.080 --> 0:11:16.240 deterrent but able to deal with those things as they arise. 0:11:16.600 --> 0:11:19.880 So is the strategy reactive or proactive? In other words, 0:11:20.440 --> 0:11:24.000 is the military responding to what they perceive as Chinese 0:11:24.000 --> 0:11:30.080 and Russian incursions or are they anticipating that Russia and 0:11:30.200 --> 0:11:35.720 China are going to continue to scramble for stakeholdings in 0:11:35.760 --> 0:11:38.480 the north around the Arctic, and the US better get 0:11:38.520 --> 0:11:41.120 busy and build its foundations out in Alaska. 0:11:41.559 --> 0:11:44.200 It leans much towards the latter, I think. I think 0:11:44.240 --> 0:11:46.360 the third element that's happening here, and you'll see this 0:11:46.640 --> 0:11:50.439 in the Army's public documents on the strategy, is climate change. 0:11:50.520 --> 0:11:54.160 The ground is literally shifting beneath their feet. The Arctic 0:11:54.240 --> 0:11:57.960 is warming faster than the rest of the planet, and 0:11:58.200 --> 0:12:00.000 you know, when you're there, you can see it almost 0:12:00.040 --> 0:12:04.280 happening in real time. I visited coastal villages where you 0:12:04.360 --> 0:12:08.720 can see chunks of the land just falling into the 0:12:08.800 --> 0:12:12.160 river or falling into the bearing sea and sitting there 0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:14.679 almost like gravestones. You can see like. 0:12:14.720 --> 0:12:18.920 Big chunks of like glacial flows fracturing and falling off 0:12:18.920 --> 0:12:19.400 into the sea. 0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:22.520 Not glacial flows, I mean, what I saw was literally 0:12:23.120 --> 0:12:27.400 riverbank and coastal earth that had fallen into the water, 0:12:27.880 --> 0:12:30.160 you know, And that's because we're seeing a combination of 0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:35.720 sea level rising but also the perma frost gradually melting 0:12:35.840 --> 0:12:39.479 and melting and melting. And since most of these places, 0:12:39.760 --> 0:12:42.000 particularly in the western and northern part of the state, 0:12:42.559 --> 0:12:44.760 are built on permafrost, I mean when you go there, 0:12:45.160 --> 0:12:47.800 you see the houses all up on stilts. I saw 0:12:47.840 --> 0:12:51.800 an entire basketball court constructed on stilts in this village 0:12:51.840 --> 0:12:52.959 for the children to enjoy. 0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:56.439 So it's more like a landslide, yes into the water. 0:12:56.840 --> 0:12:59.360 Yes, And actually, I think you bring up an important point. 0:12:59.800 --> 0:13:04.679 We often see commentary on the Arctic portrayed as a 0:13:04.760 --> 0:13:07.800 scramble for things, you know, a scramble for resources, a 0:13:07.800 --> 0:13:12.000 scramble for influence. No one scrambles in the Arctic. It 0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:15.160 takes a long time to do anything. I think the 0:13:15.240 --> 0:13:20.240 better analogy is subsidence or encroachment. Things are changing, the 0:13:20.280 --> 0:13:23.640 physical landscape is changing. The pressures on the people there 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:27.600 are changing. The great powers around the region are changing 0:13:27.640 --> 0:13:31.559 their stance, And that's really what Not only the army 0:13:31.720 --> 0:13:33.959 is trying to plan for it, or at least ready 0:13:33.960 --> 0:13:36.760 itself for but frankly, everyone who lives there. 0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:39.680 How many troops does the US have up there. 0:13:39.559 --> 0:13:41.640 Now has roughly twelve thousand. 0:13:42.160 --> 0:13:46.160 Twelve thousand seems to me like a relatively modest commitment, 0:13:46.280 --> 0:13:50.079 but it's nonetheless more significant than having ten people sitting 0:13:50.080 --> 0:13:50.920 in a house somewhere. 0:13:51.400 --> 0:13:52.840 That's true, and I think, you know, one way of 0:13:52.880 --> 0:13:56.040 thinking about it is the entire population of Alaska is 0:13:56.080 --> 0:13:58.760 smaller than San Francisco. It's about seven hundred and fifty 0:13:58.800 --> 0:14:03.120 thousand people, so in terms of troops to population, it's 0:14:03.400 --> 0:14:05.760 pretty high. I also found out that Alaska has the 0:14:05.800 --> 0:14:09.760 highest number of veterans related to the population. It is 0:14:09.800 --> 0:14:12.760 a military outpost in so many respects. The Army ran 0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:14.800 it for the first ten years when it became part 0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:18.400 of the United States, and everywhere you go, you know, 0:14:18.559 --> 0:14:20.920 you land at Fairbanks, the first people you see are 0:14:20.960 --> 0:14:24.600 troops getting off planes going to the nearby bases. It 0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:27.000 was obviously a frontline for the Cold War and is 0:14:27.280 --> 0:14:29.520 emerging once again as a potential frontline. 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:31.720 And as you accompanied the troops on some of their 0:14:31.760 --> 0:14:34.560 training runs, I remember from one of the stories you 0:14:34.600 --> 0:14:36.520 described that some of them were just learning how to 0:14:36.640 --> 0:14:41.480 basically embed themselves in the snow in white camouflage gear 0:14:41.800 --> 0:14:43.920 so they could look invisible. So they were learning how 0:14:43.960 --> 0:14:48.000 to become invisible in a landscape that almost invites invisibility, 0:14:48.360 --> 0:14:50.800 and it had this kind of redundant quality to it 0:14:50.840 --> 0:14:51.920 but also necessary. 0:14:52.520 --> 0:14:55.320 That's right. And one of the really interesting aspects about 0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:57.960 it is if you go to a country like Finland, 0:14:58.040 --> 0:15:02.080 which basically wrote the book on winter warfare, they actually 0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:06.880 select their Arctic troops from certain regions of the country 0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:09.560 to better align with natural skills around skiing and that 0:15:09.600 --> 0:15:12.040 sort of thing. That is not the case with Alaska. 0:15:12.120 --> 0:15:15.280 I met troops the woman you mentioned who I attracted 0:15:15.280 --> 0:15:18.000 when she was doing camouflage training. She was from Florida. 0:15:18.400 --> 0:15:21.640 I met a sergeant from South Texas who says that 0:15:21.680 --> 0:15:24.240 when he first got stationed there, he would get frostbite 0:15:24.320 --> 0:15:27.560 all the time wandering around outside, like picking up tools 0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:30.560 and that sort of thing. These are, in many ways 0:15:30.760 --> 0:15:35.160 really raw recruits for that environment. Half them had never 0:15:35.200 --> 0:15:37.800 even put on a set of skis before. 0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:39.720 So what's the attraction to them to go there. 0:15:40.480 --> 0:15:44.000 It's interesting for most of them. Certainly, the people I 0:15:44.080 --> 0:15:46.800 met on that training course, most of them had volunteered. 0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:49.200 They hadn't been told you have to go here. They 0:15:49.240 --> 0:15:52.440 had volunteered for this leadership course. And I think It's 0:15:52.520 --> 0:15:57.520 that classic attraction of going somewhere that's out of the 0:15:57.520 --> 0:16:00.520 way that otherwise you would never get to, and putting 0:16:00.520 --> 0:16:03.800 your body through that kind of environment, frankly, putting your 0:16:03.880 --> 0:16:06.320 mind through that kind of environment. And that was another 0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:09.600 thing that you know, I really gathered by being there 0:16:09.640 --> 0:16:12.800 on the ground. Even during my six days there, the 0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:15.520 isolation and the darkness kind of began to get to 0:16:15.560 --> 0:16:18.000 me by the end of it. If you're stationed there 0:16:18.040 --> 0:16:22.680 for months on end, the isolation, the darkness, and the 0:16:22.840 --> 0:16:26.320 unrelenting nature of the weather, you know, the wind just 0:16:26.360 --> 0:16:30.200 whipping through you every day, it really starts to prey 0:16:31.000 --> 0:16:32.720 on the mind. And it was certainly something that came 0:16:32.800 --> 0:16:35.080 up in a lot of conversations, the need to manage 0:16:35.120 --> 0:16:38.200 that and to not sort of draw into a cocoon, 0:16:38.280 --> 0:16:40.080 which I think is what can happen with a lot 0:16:40.080 --> 0:16:42.640 of these troops. You know, when I was speaking to 0:16:43.160 --> 0:16:46.840 Steve Decker, who is a retired US soldier who now 0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:50.520 operates as a civilian trainer at the Northern Warfare Training Center, 0:16:50.600 --> 0:16:54.480 he related a story from some years back, you know, 0:16:54.520 --> 0:16:57.360 where he saw on the ground not just a soldier, 0:16:57.400 --> 0:17:02.280 but an entire platoon. Mentally to the rigors of the place. 0:17:02.640 --> 0:17:04.560 Let's listen to that sound bite. 0:17:04.600 --> 0:17:07.600 And I come walking back to where my platoon was 0:17:08.560 --> 0:17:11.240 and I look at him and there they're like maybe 0:17:11.240 --> 0:17:14.560 fifty yards away from me, and all three of our 0:17:14.560 --> 0:17:18.159 Occio sleds were sitting there, but the whole tune was 0:17:18.240 --> 0:17:22.240 standing around them, just staring at them. And I'm looking 0:17:22.280 --> 0:17:24.119 at them and I'm like, why aren't they setting up 0:17:24.160 --> 0:17:28.360 their tents? And so I'm walking over there and they're 0:17:28.359 --> 0:17:30.359 all just kind of just staring at it. It's like, 0:17:30.520 --> 0:17:34.040 this is the means to take all this away, but 0:17:34.160 --> 0:17:36.560 I cannot break out of this cocoon that I'm in 0:17:36.680 --> 0:17:42.439 right now to do this. And I was just about 0:17:42.440 --> 0:17:48.959 to say something when one of my more forceful squad 0:17:49.000 --> 0:17:51.960 leaders blindsided me from the side and he comes like. 0:17:53.480 --> 0:17:57.359 Froll people around, get their shit like that, and then 0:17:57.359 --> 0:18:00.760 they started getting moving. But I watched it at a 0:18:00.800 --> 0:18:05.520 lot that withdraw where people just they just withdraw within 0:18:05.560 --> 0:18:09.600 themselves and they will not make. 0:18:09.520 --> 0:18:13.359 Efforts to alleviate the pain that they're going through whatever. 0:18:14.200 --> 0:18:15.520 And I've done it myself. 0:18:17.280 --> 0:18:19.280 What kind of a military presence do the Chinese and 0:18:19.320 --> 0:18:19.879 Russians have? 0:18:20.680 --> 0:18:24.440 So Russia in so many ways is the Arctic whale. 0:18:24.640 --> 0:18:28.480 It has the most territory, the most people, the most 0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:32.760 economic activity, and the biggest military presence in the Arctic. 0:18:33.560 --> 0:18:38.439 And in a way that's understandable. They have the biggest 0:18:38.480 --> 0:18:39.520 physical presence in the arc. 0:18:39.720 --> 0:18:41.200 They truly are in our nation. 0:18:41.320 --> 0:18:44.760 Absolutely, whereas we are more a southern nation with an 0:18:44.840 --> 0:18:49.160 Arctic fringe the best way to put it. So, their 0:18:49.160 --> 0:18:53.040 military presence is big, both in scale and its elements. 0:18:53.040 --> 0:18:56.760 For example, you know a lot of the strategic nuclear 0:18:57.119 --> 0:19:00.160 fleet is based up in the Cola Peninsula close to Finland. 0:19:00.560 --> 0:19:04.560 So Russia's presence is huge and is only going to 0:19:04.600 --> 0:19:08.880 get bigger, in part because Putin has made it such 0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:12.919 a central plank of his vision for what Russia will 0:19:12.960 --> 0:19:16.080 be as a great power over the coming decades. You know, 0:19:16.160 --> 0:19:19.400 that need to open up a northern sea route as 0:19:19.440 --> 0:19:23.480 the ice melts, That need to export more oil and 0:19:23.560 --> 0:19:27.240 gas from the Arctic coast as the old West Siberian 0:19:27.320 --> 0:19:32.840 fields go into terminal decline. China, well, China's a bit different. 0:19:33.119 --> 0:19:37.680 China isn't an Arctic nation. It's forays into the Arctic 0:19:37.840 --> 0:19:42.520 right now mainly consist of the odd naval patrol, the 0:19:42.560 --> 0:19:47.240 odd joint exercise with the Russians. They do have scientific 0:19:47.280 --> 0:19:52.600 outposts throughout the Arctic, and you know, it's widely thought 0:19:52.640 --> 0:19:56.800 that those are essentially dual use. But China clearly has 0:19:56.840 --> 0:20:01.040 designs on the Arctic as an undergoverned space, to use 0:20:01.080 --> 0:20:04.560 that phrase, particularly as waters that are outside of economic 0:20:04.680 --> 0:20:09.040 zones become more navigable. China sees that as a place 0:20:09.119 --> 0:20:12.880 where it can stake out a position, maybe send its 0:20:12.920 --> 0:20:16.639 famous fishing fleets, and you know, become more of an 0:20:16.720 --> 0:20:17.479 Arctic power. 0:20:17.960 --> 0:20:21.920 But as of yet this isn't something that anyone sees turning. 0:20:21.640 --> 0:20:27.160 Heart no, but certainly if you read the Army's strategic papers, 0:20:27.200 --> 0:20:30.159 I mean, the word China comes up more often than 0:20:30.200 --> 0:20:33.399 your average Trump rally. It's very much front of mind. 0:20:33.480 --> 0:20:36.080 In some ways. It's kind of strange. Although Russia is 0:20:36.080 --> 0:20:39.360 the very present power, in some ways, China has feared more. 0:20:40.520 --> 0:20:42.600 All right, on that noe, Let's take a break, Liam, 0:20:42.840 --> 0:20:44.480 We'll hear from a sponsor, and then we'll come back 0:20:44.520 --> 0:20:47.520 and talk about some of the commercial war games going 0:20:47.520 --> 0:20:55.520 on up there. We're back with William Denning, a Bloomberg 0:20:55.600 --> 0:20:58.480 opinion columnist who's been charting the rush to control the Arctic, 0:20:58.840 --> 0:21:03.600 as told through his repeat visits to Alaska. So oil, oil, oil, 0:21:03.760 --> 0:21:07.000 A lot of contemporary Alaskan history and geopolitics can be 0:21:07.040 --> 0:21:09.080 looked at through that lens canon Liam. 0:21:09.720 --> 0:21:12.920 Yeah, and I think it's particularly poignant right now, given 0:21:12.960 --> 0:21:15.960 what's going on in the Middle East for us to 0:21:16.000 --> 0:21:19.840 remember that Alaska's oil boom really is owed to the 0:21:19.920 --> 0:21:23.520 Yong Kapo War. It was the Arab oil embargo that 0:21:23.640 --> 0:21:28.200 followed that that essentially persuaded Congress and then President Nixon 0:21:28.640 --> 0:21:32.320 to force through the construction of the transk Alaska Pipeline 0:21:32.359 --> 0:21:35.520 and kick off a boom that you know eventually led 0:21:35.520 --> 0:21:37.760 to Alaska during the nineteen eight is becoming the kind 0:21:37.800 --> 0:21:40.800 of the shale power of that period, accounting for about 0:21:40.800 --> 0:21:42.120 a quarter of US oil production. 0:21:43.240 --> 0:21:45.920 As you noted one of your pieces, there's an ocean 0:21:46.000 --> 0:21:49.159 of oil and gas rosen in place beneath the Arctic, 0:21:49.440 --> 0:21:53.520 and I suppose the logic for the energy companies exploring 0:21:53.600 --> 0:21:56.920 up there is that climate change is going to make 0:21:56.960 --> 0:22:00.199 that less hard to get to or am I oversimplifying? 0:22:00.680 --> 0:22:04.080 Yeah, there is that horrible kind of doom loop going on. 0:22:04.160 --> 0:22:07.600 As the ice melts, you open up more resources to exploit, 0:22:07.640 --> 0:22:10.719 which then help more of the ice melt. That's definitely 0:22:10.800 --> 0:22:14.480 going on. But I think it's important to remember that 0:22:14.640 --> 0:22:16.840 the oil resources up there, and don't get me wrong, 0:22:17.040 --> 0:22:19.600 all the estimates indicate there is a lot of oil 0:22:19.640 --> 0:22:22.679 and gas in the Arctic. It's frozen in place, not 0:22:23.080 --> 0:22:27.600 just by ice, but by its sheer remoteness. Going back 0:22:27.640 --> 0:22:32.000 to that idea I had earlier on about the lower 0:22:32.080 --> 0:22:35.840 forty eight, remembering Alaska when it's feeling anxious about the world. 0:22:37.200 --> 0:22:40.119 That is what led to the oil boom in Alaska. 0:22:40.160 --> 0:22:43.080 This is not a place that you would ordinarily really 0:22:43.119 --> 0:22:48.480 want to go to get oil. It's really hard, it's 0:22:48.600 --> 0:22:53.120 really expensive. Only the biggest players can go there. If 0:22:53.160 --> 0:22:57.760 you get it wrong, it can be catastrophic. Shell famously 0:22:57.800 --> 0:23:01.879 wrote off seven or eight billion dollar last decade trying 0:23:01.880 --> 0:23:04.400