1 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:13,400 Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume podcast Network. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 1: I am your host, Chad Newman. We have been counting 3 00:00:19,000 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 1: down every single division in the NFL, which teams have improved, 4 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:29,560 Speaker 1: which teams haven't since the offseason, figuring out what the 5 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 1: betting opportunities are, super Bowl Conference division totals. We're finally 6 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 1: on our last division. We are doing the a f 7 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:44,120 Speaker 1: C West today. I am going to bring in Professional Better, 8 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:48,200 Speaker 1: my co host of the podcast, my bff, my companion, 9 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:52,879 Speaker 1: my compader, Mr Simon Hunter, made it to the end, 10 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 1: Buddy next week and I already got a list. Next 11 00:00:56,240 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 1: week we start talking real games, real picks. Dad. I 12 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 1: really came believe made a buddy. It feels like just 13 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 1: yesterday the season was ending. You're like, hey, you want 14 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:08,240 Speaker 1: to go do two shows a week? And I was like, 15 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 1: I don't know about that, but we did it. I 16 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 1: somehow made it every show too, which is shocking at me, Um, 17 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:17,319 Speaker 1: because we don't know this. I'm very full laky, and 18 00:01:17,600 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 1: I feel like you've helped me get rid of that 19 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:22,640 Speaker 1: quality of myself where it's like I used to always 20 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 1: just wake up every day and like, oh great, I 21 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:26,319 Speaker 1: have nothing to do to instead I had this podcast, 22 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:31,559 Speaker 1: and uh, dude, dude, as I wrote in your mini review, 23 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 1: because you were away professional and you make both the 24 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:41,120 Speaker 1: job your acclamation to employee and part of a company, 25 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 1: you what might be the most professional person we have 26 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 1: working on our podcast team. I don't know if that's 27 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 1: saying much, but yeah, I feel like I'm definitely too 28 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 1: where if I do something life, I work my ass 29 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:55,480 Speaker 1: off towards it. Um, So hope I don't lose that 30 00:01:55,520 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 1: as I get older. I clearly still have it going. 31 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 1: But that's funny you feel that because I was so 32 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 1: nervous going and I was like, I really hope I 33 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 1: don't let this guy chat down because I am so flaky. 34 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:08,800 Speaker 1: So that's hilarious here you said, I guess. I guess 35 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:10,640 Speaker 1: I've grown up a little bit. You've grown up a 36 00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:13,840 Speaker 1: little bit just in the past few months. Um. I 37 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:16,640 Speaker 1: feel like, so yesterday I want to get to the 38 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:18,720 Speaker 1: to the a f C. West, I do, but I 39 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 1: need to engage our audience for a second. Because yesterday 40 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 1: a buddy of mine called me and he said he 41 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 1: was listening to the podcasts, and uh, he definitely is 42 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:31,519 Speaker 1: not a guy who was listening to the podcast sort 43 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 1: of either in any of the iterations when it was 44 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:37,399 Speaker 1: behind the That's on ESPN, which we started in two 45 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 1: thousand ten, or in its new form as The Favorites. No, 46 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:43,840 Speaker 1: I'm not angry about it. I'm just saying, like, he's 47 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 1: a guy who's like just figuring out the space. He's 48 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:49,400 Speaker 1: got a cast, casual listener, just getting used to it, right, 49 00:02:49,760 --> 00:02:53,799 Speaker 1: and so he mentioned like he's like, dude, it's kind 50 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 1: of annoying when you sort of make an emphasis on 51 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 1: the way you say compadre and my companion, and I'm like, dude, 52 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 1: it's a throwback to something that's been on the podcast 53 00:03:05,840 --> 00:03:08,799 Speaker 1: for a while because we used to talk about he's 54 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:13,280 Speaker 1: bounding down, and there used to be these audio throws 55 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:16,919 Speaker 1: to him saying be my companion. When we're talking about 56 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:19,600 Speaker 1: certain bets like go in with me. He goes, oh, 57 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:22,680 Speaker 1: I had no idea. I'm walking to a fucking hornets nest. 58 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 1: All right, I'll be my companion. I need you to 59 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:27,800 Speaker 1: make me help them be jealous of me. Later on 60 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:30,920 Speaker 1: that day made me realize not everybody is listening to 61 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 1: the show, either for me for the past ten years 62 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 1: or you and me together for the past two years. 63 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:39,520 Speaker 1: That's why your once favorite narcissist Chad I know, right, 64 00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 1: and so and then Matt Mitchell, please come on read 65 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 1: the review that you read to me yesterday, which it 66 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 1: kind of just made me feel bad, but go ahead 67 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 1: and read it. Anyways. We received a review on Apple 68 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:57,120 Speaker 1: Podcasts from brain Worm at pseudomail dot com which was 69 00:03:57,200 --> 00:04:00,320 Speaker 1: three stars right in the middle appreciate your reach it out, 70 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 1: and the review's title is it's one of these where 71 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 1: a clear shot at Simon Hunter's verbal tech, and the 72 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:14,640 Speaker 1: review states Simon gives out good info, not a huge 73 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:18,920 Speaker 1: fan of Chad, not very funny, and kind of irritating. 74 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 1: I do want to let brain Warm at pseudomail dot com. No, 75 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:29,480 Speaker 1: I appreciate the review. If you email podcasts at Action 76 00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:33,560 Speaker 1: network dot com, I'll send you a prize. We're gonna 77 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:35,520 Speaker 1: give this guy a prize for being mean to me 78 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:43,880 Speaker 1: and giving us a middling review. Yeah, well, listen, um. 79 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:47,839 Speaker 1: I do think it speaks to the fact that sometimes 80 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:53,839 Speaker 1: we have to step back remind ourselves that not everybody 81 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:56,480 Speaker 1: our audience is getting bigger, Our audience is changing over 82 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:58,359 Speaker 1: the years. It's not the same group of people that 83 00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:00,560 Speaker 1: are always emailing us that we community kate with sort 84 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 1: of our loyal listeners. There are new people coming in 85 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:05,040 Speaker 1: all the time. We should probably explain like a little bit. 86 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 1: I think we should do this, especially because now we're 87 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 1: with the Volume podcast Network. The Herd is a massive 88 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 1: brand for radio. I mean Colin calaher not the Herd, 89 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 1: and so um, I feel like we need to explain. 90 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:21,839 Speaker 1: I'm Chad Melman. I'm the Chief Content Officer at the 91 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:25,240 Speaker 1: Action Network. I started a betting podcast in my old 92 00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 1: days of ESPN called Behind the Beats, and I had 93 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:31,239 Speaker 1: done that because I had been covering the sports betting 94 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:34,840 Speaker 1: world for ten years before that. And uh, we are 95 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 1: part of the Action Network and I'm the chief Content 96 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 1: Officer of the Action Network. I help launched the Action 97 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:44,080 Speaker 1: Network in two thousands seventeen and we focus on covering 98 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:48,880 Speaker 1: the sports betting world, analysis, data, research stories online. They 99 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 1: can help you make decisions about who you want to 100 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:54,479 Speaker 1: bet on, understanding how to bet, education in states where 101 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 1: it's legal, Where can you bet? What can you do 102 00:05:57,160 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 1: to make bets? Can you bet online? You have to 103 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:03,719 Speaker 1: go to you know, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. That's who we are. 104 00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 1: Simon Hunter is my co host. He's been doing it 105 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:09,279 Speaker 1: with me for threeemes. I can give my accolades Chad, Chad, 106 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 1: how long have you been giving off five picks on 107 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:18,160 Speaker 1: this show here? Probably forever? How long? How long have 108 00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:19,839 Speaker 1: I had a show? So Chad just said he's been 109 00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 1: giving out five picks forever on the show. Chad hired 110 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:27,600 Speaker 1: me last year to work full time. Okay, full time 111 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:30,040 Speaker 1: one year ago. Chad made the money for the first 112 00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:32,440 Speaker 1: time in his life after hiring me one year ago. 113 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:35,279 Speaker 1: So if you know how good I am again, Chad 114 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:38,480 Speaker 1: did the show forever, never made the money. He hired 115 00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:40,280 Speaker 1: me one year ago to do this show full time. 116 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:42,880 Speaker 1: He made the money in one year. So I think that, Uh, 117 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:45,560 Speaker 1: that's all you need to hear about my accolades. Simon 118 00:06:45,640 --> 00:06:50,520 Speaker 1: Hunter is a professional better who's very humble and uh, 119 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:53,279 Speaker 1: and he has been doing this forever and does it 120 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:55,839 Speaker 1: very well and just through the gifts to the gods. 121 00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:58,440 Speaker 1: He reached out to me on Twitter, uh a couple 122 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 1: of years ago. I responded because respond to everybody, and UM, 123 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 1: we ended up having a great conversation. It was one 124 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 1: of those things. In ten minutes I knew the guy 125 00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:09,080 Speaker 1: was a guy. It would be great to work with. Literally, 126 00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 1: that's how long it took for me to say, you 127 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:14,160 Speaker 1: know what, just come on the podcast. I honestly like 128 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:18,880 Speaker 1: honest to God and so, you know, Simon Matt Mitchell, 129 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 1: producer Matt Mitchell, I feel like we probably need to 130 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:26,040 Speaker 1: do some kind of intro to remind people will incorporate 131 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:27,960 Speaker 1: that and whatever we're doing over the next few weeks 132 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 1: because the volume brings a different audience. It brings a 133 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 1: bigger audience that there's new people getting used to us 134 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:35,920 Speaker 1: all the time, and so I don't want people to 135 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 1: think I'm annoying, just you know, outside of the fact 136 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:43,120 Speaker 1: that I'm annoying. I think that's a great idea because 137 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 1: reviews like this, Chad, they inspire. Because I was told 138 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:50,760 Speaker 1: by a very smart guy, feedback is a gift. Feedback 139 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 1: as a gift that guy also might be very irritating 140 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:58,200 Speaker 1: as a podcast to host a lot of respect though 141 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:01,000 Speaker 1: it has been doing it for a long time. Yeah, well, 142 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:03,720 Speaker 1: apparently brain Worm isn't a fan, but that's cool. Let's 143 00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 1: give him some fucking presents. You know how hard it 144 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 1: is to get people to write a review. I'm just 145 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 1: happy he took the time. That's true. If someone else 146 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:14,080 Speaker 1: wants to write a review, we will send you a present. 147 00:08:14,440 --> 00:08:17,800 Speaker 1: Write us a review, will send you a present. Simon 148 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 1: wants to stay something. Yeah, I was gonna say. I 149 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 1: can get some reviews for you guys, if you really 150 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 1: want them. Okay, go to Apple Podcast the best funniest 151 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:28,160 Speaker 1: five star review. I will give you one of my 152 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:31,720 Speaker 1: four big bets of the year for free on Twitter. 153 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 1: So again, I want the funniest, biggest best review of 154 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:37,560 Speaker 1: the next two weeks. We'll do it after the beginning 155 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 1: of week two. We'll select the winner. I will personally 156 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 1: give you not a lock. Okay, any bed can lose. 157 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:46,360 Speaker 1: I'm gonna give you a play that I'm feeling pretty 158 00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:49,440 Speaker 1: pretty good about. So it could be week three, week four, 159 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:50,840 Speaker 1: or the end of the year. I never know I'm 160 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 1: gonna make these bets, but I promise you will get 161 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 1: one of those bets that, by the way, that's like 162 00:08:56,679 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 1: a massive, massive gift right there. Hey, I did it 163 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:02,000 Speaker 1: last year for a fan and it worked out where 164 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 1: it was funny. You should I gave him the pick 165 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 1: and he goes, are you sure you don't fucking question 166 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:08,680 Speaker 1: this pick? Just bet it? Don't don't question these picks. 167 00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:13,199 Speaker 1: That's why I love people. Don't challenge me. I'm giving 168 00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:16,720 Speaker 1: you a fucking gift. It's like it's like bur Durham. 169 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 1: I give you a gift and you show up my picture. 170 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 1: Classic Simon. All right, Simon, how many stars should that 171 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:33,240 Speaker 1: review be? Five stars? There we go? Five stars? Yeah, yeah, 172 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 1: five stars? All right, here we go. I don't know 173 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:40,920 Speaker 1: what sim is doing right now? He got it, got 174 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:43,720 Speaker 1: a ghost gaming that that might have been a sign. Seriously, 175 00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:47,679 Speaker 1: it's the it's hurricane Ida. Um. We're talking about the 176 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:51,440 Speaker 1: AFC West today, and I'm glad we saved this one 177 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:57,080 Speaker 1: for last because it's so challenging. Obviously, Kansas City odds 178 00:09:57,120 --> 00:09:59,959 Speaker 1: on favorite two and everything five to one, women the 179 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:03,640 Speaker 1: super Bowl. Shortest odds, uh plus two fifty to win 180 00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 1: the conference, shortest odds mine is too fifty to win 181 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 1: the division like you like, easily, the shortest odds of 182 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 1: any I don't even know how to say shortest odds 183 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:19,360 Speaker 1: for a minus two fifty um to win the division. 184 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:21,560 Speaker 1: And then there's season win total was twelve highest in 185 00:10:21,559 --> 00:10:25,319 Speaker 1: the NFL. Before we get to the Chargers, who I 186 00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 1: think are the most interesting team in the NFL. UM 187 00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:30,160 Speaker 1: and I think it's a bomber there in this division 188 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:33,520 Speaker 1: with Kansas City. Break down the chart of the Chiefs. 189 00:10:33,520 --> 00:10:36,200 Speaker 1: For me, another hot take of mind chat is this, 190 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:39,240 Speaker 1: to me is the best division in football. A lot 191 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:41,480 Speaker 1: of people think, like you think it's an NFC West, 192 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:45,080 Speaker 1: actually think it's this division. I just I have way 193 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:47,839 Speaker 1: more respect for Derek carrd than I think most fans do. 194 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:51,240 Speaker 1: I just view him different. Then everyone views him as 195 00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 1: just a terrible quarterback that can't really do much, where 196 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:55,520 Speaker 1: it's like, no, this guy is actually pretty good. He 197 00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:57,680 Speaker 1: just hasn't had a good defense ever since his coach 198 00:10:57,720 --> 00:11:01,280 Speaker 1: trade away Khalil mac So it's one of those where 199 00:11:02,240 --> 00:11:05,720 Speaker 1: when they got Herbert and you know Teddy Bridgewater now 200 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:09,000 Speaker 1: Derek Carr. It's it's a tougher division that my homes 201 00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 1: has gone against the last two years, where you know, 202 00:11:11,440 --> 00:11:13,360 Speaker 1: Denver didn't have a quarterback and the Chargers had a 203 00:11:13,400 --> 00:11:16,480 Speaker 1: broken down Flip River. So it's definitely interesting when you 204 00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 1: see the wind total for the Chiefs, would you say 205 00:11:18,280 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 1: it was twelve and a half? Now tell the Vandals. 206 00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:24,719 Speaker 1: So that's come down a little bit where I think 207 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 1: a lot of the professionals are looking at the date 208 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:31,320 Speaker 1: of this team won fourteen games last year. The history 209 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:34,000 Speaker 1: of the NFL teams that won fourteen games and then 210 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 1: their win totals over twelve the following year, it is 211 00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 1: not good. I don't know the exact number, but I'm 212 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:43,800 Speaker 1: almost positive it's like, man, I would have to look 213 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:44,960 Speaker 1: at see the last thing to do. I think it 214 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 1: was a Patriots. I think it was like ten years ago, 215 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:48,599 Speaker 1: a team that won fourteen wins that was able to 216 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 1: cover the next year's season win sols. So the thing 217 00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:54,120 Speaker 1: with the Chiefs, I feel like people need to take 218 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:56,760 Speaker 1: a step back and look at We know that this 219 00:11:56,800 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 1: team had injuries. Okay, that happened in the Super Bowl. 220 00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:02,480 Speaker 1: We saw what happened. They could not block from a 221 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:05,680 Speaker 1: home so they got dominated. So the Chiefs have done 222 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 1: the thing now where they've gotten rid of all these 223 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 1: offensive linement. They have a much of the new starters 224 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:12,520 Speaker 1: coming in, and we saw any Reid he played these 225 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:16,320 Speaker 1: starters the first preseason game, the second preseason game, and 226 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:19,439 Speaker 1: the third preseason game because he said himself the offense 227 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 1: did not look right. He wanted them to get into 228 00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:22,960 Speaker 1: a little bit of a groove. And I think it's 229 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 1: a lot to do with the offensive line. He wanted 230 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:27,800 Speaker 1: this offensive line to kind of get together. So I 231 00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:29,760 Speaker 1: remember saying earlier in the year, I wouldn't take this 232 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:32,440 Speaker 1: under it because I just hate going against Patrick Mahomes 233 00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 1: and this Chief's team. But as this offseason has gone 234 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:37,440 Speaker 1: along and I really looked at this division, I've said 235 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:39,200 Speaker 1: to my stuff, you know what, it kind of felt 236 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:41,040 Speaker 1: like everything really did go right for them last year, 237 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:45,160 Speaker 1: and they're kind of one of these teams where you 238 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:46,920 Speaker 1: could say it with every team. I get that, but 239 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:49,160 Speaker 1: it does feel like one of those things where without walkins, 240 00:12:49,160 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 1: without a couple of these guys, these backups, if they 241 00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:55,560 Speaker 1: at least Tyreek Hill, if they least Travis Kelsey, it's 242 00:12:55,600 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 1: kind of scary to think what this offense could be like. 243 00:12:57,840 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 1: And I could see them dropping a couple of games 244 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 1: along the way. So I've kind of turned a corner here. 245 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:04,400 Speaker 1: I really thought the Chiefs were kind of this lock, 246 00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:06,720 Speaker 1: this team that I got why everyone's all in on them. 247 00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 1: They're gonna make it back to the super Bowl. To 248 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 1: go on the other way where it's like this might 249 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:12,079 Speaker 1: actually be a down year for the Chiefs, and I'm 250 00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 1: gonna try to take advantage of that. So I'm not 251 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 1: telling you about it because it's not one of my 252 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:19,360 Speaker 1: favorite bets. But if you're leaning which way to go, 253 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 1: the over the under, you're picking a win total here. 254 00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 1: I definitely like the under. Heear for the Chiefs wintel, 255 00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:26,400 Speaker 1: and that's the fact that it's down to twelve. I 256 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:28,960 Speaker 1: would chop around, but that's that's a fair line by Fandel. 257 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:30,679 Speaker 1: But you might still be able to five twelve and 258 00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:34,880 Speaker 1: a halfs out there. So you mentioned the offensive line. 259 00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:40,840 Speaker 1: They lost Derek Fisher, they lost Mitchell Shorts. Um, they've 260 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:46,440 Speaker 1: added Orlando Brown, you know, they've they've added players to 261 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 1: the offensive line. If you feel like they're playing the 262 00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 1: offensive line a lot handicap for me, How long in 263 00:13:56,880 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 1: your experience does it take an offensive line that is 264 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:02,199 Speaker 1: full of talent so it's not like it's lacking talent 265 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:06,880 Speaker 1: an offensive line like this? To Jael, when do you 266 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:12,600 Speaker 1: sort of think about here's when I can be seeing 267 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:16,199 Speaker 1: opportunities to bet against the Chiefs. They actually did. Look 268 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:19,120 Speaker 1: they didn't improve each game. Um, I think they're keeping 269 00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 1: ten offensive alignment. I saw something like that that they 270 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:26,160 Speaker 1: kept ten to the starting roster, which is pretty insane. Um, 271 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:29,080 Speaker 1: I don't know it's just beer like they traded they 272 00:14:29,160 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 1: traded for the Eagles for a guy who I mean, 273 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:34,840 Speaker 1: he's not even was going to make our practice squad 274 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 1: um a lot of them. There's just a lot of 275 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:42,720 Speaker 1: different red flags towards the Chiefs. Um Again, I'm not 276 00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:45,120 Speaker 1: trying to be so down on them, because I'm with everyone. 277 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 1: Mahomes is unbelievable all these things, But we just say 278 00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 1: time and time again, like I don't know, just think 279 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:54,880 Speaker 1: that they're gonna go three straight Super Bowls. That's pretty rare, 280 00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:58,960 Speaker 1: especially in this DNAG and just looking again at that division, 281 00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:01,200 Speaker 1: it's just like, I don't know if it's gonna be 282 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:02,680 Speaker 1: that easier for them to get the one seed again, 283 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:04,520 Speaker 1: which is they've they've been the one or two seed 284 00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 1: the last two times they've gone to Super Bowl. So 285 00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:10,640 Speaker 1: I think people need to understand this offensive line and stuff. 286 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:14,560 Speaker 1: It's it's more about then being in you know, in 287 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:17,240 Speaker 1: like we don't know each other at and then knowing 288 00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 1: what Holmes is gonna do because we've seen my homes. 289 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 1: My homes, he can make plays. That's why I don't 290 00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:24,480 Speaker 1: want to put too much into the offensive line because 291 00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:26,040 Speaker 1: my homes we've seen it time and time again he 292 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 1: can get outside the pocket and make different plays. But 293 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:29,880 Speaker 1: I don't want to be a little the fact that 294 00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:32,080 Speaker 1: the guys you just named are all pros, like that 295 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:35,880 Speaker 1: he's losing all pro left tackle again, a new center. 296 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 1: There's just a lot of different things where it's like, Okay, 297 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:40,840 Speaker 1: I can see why their professionals have coming and bet 298 00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 1: this under because there are a lot of things they 299 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:44,600 Speaker 1: make you pause. And again when I look at this 300 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:46,760 Speaker 1: division and how good it's gonna be in the first place, 301 00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 1: schedule they're gonna play, you have to bet this under 302 00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 1: just statistically on based on the math. You have to 303 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 1: take this onder just because that's how hard it is 304 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:57,240 Speaker 1: for teams that year, and you out to break go 305 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:02,360 Speaker 1: over their total win total. The argers meanwhile, because I'm 306 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 1: gonna skip over chief, super Bowl, Division and conference really, 307 00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:08,080 Speaker 1: because what are you gonna do. You're not going to 308 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 1: bet him five to one and you're not going to 309 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 1: get him better a plus two fifty, And like you said, 310 00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:14,040 Speaker 1: there's new people of the show. I'm my job is 311 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:15,920 Speaker 1: really find value for Chad. And we talked about this 312 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 1: two years ago. They were four and four when Mahomes 313 00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:21,080 Speaker 1: got hurt. Two years ago the year they won the 314 00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:24,040 Speaker 1: Super Bowl, and I told Chad, hey, there's some good 315 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:25,840 Speaker 1: value right now in the Chiefs because people are down 316 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:28,040 Speaker 1: on them because myhomes is hurt. They got all up 317 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:30,200 Speaker 1: to eighteen to one to win the Super Bowl that year, 318 00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:32,840 Speaker 1: so right now their odds aren't that good. But all 319 00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:35,160 Speaker 1: we need is maybe an injury, a couple of losing shrieks, 320 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:37,160 Speaker 1: and we're gonna be able to double those odds win 321 00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:40,600 Speaker 1: the super Bowl. So again, please anything shorter than twelve 322 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:42,360 Speaker 1: to one. Don't waste your money on betting right now 323 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:43,960 Speaker 1: and any these Super Bowl futures. You want to just 324 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 1: try to play and find value later on in the season. 325 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:50,040 Speaker 1: All right, Well, that that's great advice. We talked a 326 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:53,160 Speaker 1: lot about this with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year. 327 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:58,560 Speaker 1: Where As soon as free agency conversation began last year, 328 00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 1: you and a lot of people at actually Network started 329 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:04,520 Speaker 1: betting on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at fifty to one 330 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:07,359 Speaker 1: and continue to bet them as it went down, down, down, 331 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:11,200 Speaker 1: and then they got out. Tom Brady, um, So, value value, 332 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:15,400 Speaker 1: value combined with knowledge, combined with information, combined with sort 333 00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 1: of trying to put pieces together. That's how you make 334 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:21,679 Speaker 1: good decisions about value on future ods. The Chargers are 335 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:25,440 Speaker 1: one of those teams where I have bet them at 336 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 1: thirty three to one, a little bit longer actually to 337 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. I have bet them at nine. 338 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:33,560 Speaker 1: I bet them over nine for their season win total 339 00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:36,040 Speaker 1: there at sixteen to one to win the conference plus 340 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:39,200 Speaker 1: four fifty to win the division. How do you handicap 341 00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:41,080 Speaker 1: a team like this when they're in the conference with 342 00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:49,320 Speaker 1: the Chiefs. We love them. Uh, it's classic. Um again, people, 343 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:51,040 Speaker 1: you're gonna hear me say this all the time, but 344 00:17:51,080 --> 00:17:53,040 Speaker 1: it's just we've just seen it time and time again, 345 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 1: the second year jump. So we have a guy in 346 00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:59,200 Speaker 1: Justin Herbert that we both believe in. He looked incredible 347 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:01,680 Speaker 1: as a rookie, and now we're making bets that he's 348 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:03,679 Speaker 1: going to take another step in his second year. So 349 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:05,960 Speaker 1: we already think he's a pretty good guy. Now we 350 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:08,160 Speaker 1: think he's gonna go jump into the top five, maybe 351 00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:10,480 Speaker 1: top three quarterbacks in the whole league. And that's what 352 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:13,359 Speaker 1: these kind of value bets are for. So, like you 353 00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:15,440 Speaker 1: just said, we had longer odds. You could have got 354 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:17,160 Speaker 1: them at forty two one to win the Super Bowl. 355 00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:19,479 Speaker 1: UM shop around because that number still might be out there, 356 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:20,840 Speaker 1: but now they're down to thirty three two one on 357 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:24,240 Speaker 1: vandel It's it feels like a perfect storm of a 358 00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 1: team here where I love that they got a defensive 359 00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:31,399 Speaker 1: minded coach from the Rams. He's actually one of the 360 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:33,520 Speaker 1: favorites for Coach of the Year, which is kind of 361 00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:36,040 Speaker 1: interesting that people have bet that up. They brought over 362 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:39,440 Speaker 1: Lombardi from the Saints around the offense, so we should 363 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 1: see more stuff that those Saints ran, which again you 364 00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:45,080 Speaker 1: can stay with everyone. I love Shampaign. I love that 365 00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 1: this guy's bring that same offensive style from that team 366 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:50,680 Speaker 1: to the Chargers team. I love. Teams are just built 367 00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:52,840 Speaker 1: stars and scrubs, and that's the team we have here. 368 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:55,440 Speaker 1: So we have a team that's taught. We talked all 369 00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:57,760 Speaker 1: the time. Rookie contract is one of the most important 370 00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:00,040 Speaker 1: things for the Super Bowl stuff. You're looking for a 371 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:03,240 Speaker 1: a quarterback that's being paid sheep, that has hiped talent 372 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:05,439 Speaker 1: that the team can use that money to make the 373 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 1: team around him better. And when I look at this team, 374 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:11,760 Speaker 1: there are truly a starting sprup team. They have no 375 00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:14,000 Speaker 1: depth at all on their d line, no real depth 376 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 1: at all the at the linebacker position. And no depth 377 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:20,159 Speaker 1: at all at the cornerback position. But their starters are 378 00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:23,359 Speaker 1: incredible and people know the names. Everyone knows boasts, boasts, 379 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,440 Speaker 1: everyone knows Darwin James. I love this kid. It's note 380 00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:30,320 Speaker 1: Samuel Jr. Which a piece Willy coming out either this 381 00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:33,320 Speaker 1: week or next week about my long shots. He's at 382 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 1: forty one to win a Defensive Player of the Year. 383 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:38,240 Speaker 1: I love this kid. It's note Samuel Jr. He's the 384 00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:41,600 Speaker 1: cornerback for the the San Diego Chargers, I mean the 385 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:44,160 Speaker 1: l A Chargers. It was like a perfect storm where 386 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:47,199 Speaker 1: they drafted right. They had got a great defense, they 387 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:49,840 Speaker 1: have a great offensive line. They have Eckler, they have 388 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:53,879 Speaker 1: Keenan Allen, they got Williams the receiver. All these pieces 389 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:56,119 Speaker 1: are here for this pretty much this year. This is 390 00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 1: it a lot of these guys are gonna leave me 391 00:19:57,480 --> 00:19:59,080 Speaker 1: after this year because they're gonna need to get paid. 392 00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:02,160 Speaker 1: So to me, all the signs point to the Chargers 393 00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 1: being a value in this division where if you want 394 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 1: to bet them the one of the division, I love it. 395 00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:07,040 Speaker 1: If you want to bet them with the Super Bowl, 396 00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:09,320 Speaker 1: I love it. It's also one of these where if 397 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:11,280 Speaker 1: you want to wait until after Week one, I love 398 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:14,440 Speaker 1: that too, because me and Chatter were talking next week 399 00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:17,119 Speaker 1: we're gonna be bet in Washington, Washington, playing the Chargers 400 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:18,919 Speaker 1: at home next week. That feels like a little bit 401 00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:21,439 Speaker 1: of a trap game here for Justin Herbert going on 402 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:24,160 Speaker 1: the road, first game of the year, going across country, 403 00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:26,040 Speaker 1: it feels like a little bit of a trap. So 404 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:28,760 Speaker 1: as much as I'm blowing them up, talking them up 405 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:31,000 Speaker 1: right now, I'm fine with waiting on a week for 406 00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:32,640 Speaker 1: the Chargers. If you want to wait until next week, 407 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:33,919 Speaker 1: try to play, you know, a little bit of a 408 00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:36,240 Speaker 1: gamble here. You might go to get forty five to 409 00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:37,880 Speaker 1: one if you just wait a week, because they might 410 00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:40,000 Speaker 1: starting one and people gonna be like, all right, same 411 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:42,639 Speaker 1: old Chargers. Move on. So I'm trying to think ahead 412 00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:44,600 Speaker 1: and trying to find better value. So for me, if 413 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:46,640 Speaker 1: you already feel like you missed the value on the Chargers, 414 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:48,679 Speaker 1: just wait a week. You might be to find better value. 415 00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 1: I will remind people that starting next week, uh, we 416 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:58,440 Speaker 1: will twice a week Tuesday and Thursday be posting uh 417 00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:02,320 Speaker 1: b b uh, listening to the podcast, and be going 418 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 1: through our picks that we will put in on Sunday 419 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:08,879 Speaker 1: that our five best picks we'll start off on Tuesday. 420 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:12,359 Speaker 1: On Thursday, will update based on line moves that had 421 00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:15,840 Speaker 1: happened over the previous forty eight hours. We are already 422 00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:22,240 Speaker 1: looking at a disgusting group of pics of what we like, uh, 423 00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:25,040 Speaker 1: beginning on Tuesday. And a reminder, I'll be going over 424 00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:28,280 Speaker 1: all this with cow Herd on his podcast that will 425 00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:32,560 Speaker 1: post on Fridays, um, comparing our picks to what his 426 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:35,080 Speaker 1: picks are, reminding him how we are so much smarter 427 00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:38,880 Speaker 1: when we decide. We are choosing five picks from this 428 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:46,120 Speaker 1: group of road underdogs so far Colts underdogs, Colts Washington 429 00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:51,959 Speaker 1: Football team, Houston Texans, Cincinnati, the Detroit the Giants, and 430 00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,960 Speaker 1: the Raiders. And by the way, that's that's just the 431 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:57,480 Speaker 1: beginning of the conversation. It's very possible we have more 432 00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:00,800 Speaker 1: disgusting picks than there uh, in of weeks to come. 433 00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:05,000 Speaker 1: But that's why you say we might be looking at 434 00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:09,440 Speaker 1: at fading the Los Angeles Chargers next week. I love 435 00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:12,080 Speaker 1: this team. I love this team, the coaches, Brandon Staley, 436 00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:15,320 Speaker 1: by the way, UM, I love it for all the 437 00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:18,880 Speaker 1: reasons you just said. Uh. And I think that their defense, 438 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:24,560 Speaker 1: while lacking in depth, gets better by the addition of 439 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:28,160 Speaker 1: players like James, who missed the entire year last year 440 00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:31,440 Speaker 1: and was an All Pro safety the year before. Like, 441 00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:35,720 Speaker 1: if they can stay healthy, if they miraculously get sort 442 00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 1: of some good luck in that in that in that spot, 443 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,760 Speaker 1: this isn't This is a talented, talented team, and it's 444 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:45,680 Speaker 1: very possible at the end of the year seventeen game 445 00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:49,840 Speaker 1: season when they're playing the Chiefs that the division title 446 00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 1: is on the line. I love it, and I just 447 00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:54,399 Speaker 1: and they also you can look at the data. No 448 00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 1: team plays the Chiefs harder. I think the Chiefs beat 449 00:22:56,880 --> 00:23:00,560 Speaker 1: them by three points in Herbert's first offic shill start 450 00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:04,080 Speaker 1: at home last year, and then the Chiefs obviously sat 451 00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:06,399 Speaker 1: starters in the year last year, so that the Charges 452 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:08,480 Speaker 1: beat them that's kind of a throwaway. But in a 453 00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:12,119 Speaker 1: game that they both played for real, the Chiefs barely 454 00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,800 Speaker 1: squeaked by So again, that's another reason why I liked 455 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:16,760 Speaker 1: their long shot odds in the Super Bowl, because if 456 00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:19,040 Speaker 1: they play the Chiefs and the playoffs again, that's the 457 00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:21,280 Speaker 1: third time they've seen them. If any team knows the 458 00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 1: weaknesses of the Chiefs to anyone better than them, I 459 00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:24,960 Speaker 1: would like to hear what those teams are because I 460 00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:26,760 Speaker 1: don't believe. I think it's one of those things where 461 00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 1: divisional teams they know these teams where they want else. 462 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,320 Speaker 1: So it's just great value if you really believe the 463 00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,359 Speaker 1: Chargers team. Well, look, you mentioned Brendan Staley, and you 464 00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:39,359 Speaker 1: mentioned you liked it because you know he's a defensive coach. 465 00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:41,399 Speaker 1: I actually thought it was a really interesting choice to 466 00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:44,960 Speaker 1: bring him in, uh, from the from the Rams, where 467 00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,919 Speaker 1: he coached a defense that played so incredibly well and 468 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:51,600 Speaker 1: really changed the personality of that team from what they 469 00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:55,280 Speaker 1: had been just two years prior. Um I thought it 470 00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,080 Speaker 1: was a mistake to bring in a guy like that, 471 00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:01,399 Speaker 1: because you really wanted some one who could continue to 472 00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:04,040 Speaker 1: mold and shape the offense. And justin Herbert because he 473 00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:07,199 Speaker 1: does seem to have so much talent and was preternaturally 474 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:12,520 Speaker 1: mature last year as a quarterback. But more importantly, whether 475 00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:15,639 Speaker 1: it was offense or defense, the fact they were able 476 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,159 Speaker 1: to get rid of Anthony Lynn and we did not 477 00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:22,720 Speaker 1: talk about as as as sort of as unlucky as 478 00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:25,760 Speaker 1: the Chargers were last year. They were unlucky partially because 479 00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,200 Speaker 1: Anthony we had made so many bad decisions and put 480 00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:30,600 Speaker 1: them in so many bad spots as far as his 481 00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:34,200 Speaker 1: clock management and at the end of the games. Yeah, 482 00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:35,399 Speaker 1: I don't want to be I don't want to be 483 00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:39,439 Speaker 1: too hard on him because yeah, everyone knows this guy. 484 00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:42,840 Speaker 1: He was a player's people stay all the time. He 485 00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:46,639 Speaker 1: was the players coach um and that failed him in 486 00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:49,959 Speaker 1: many ways last year, Like he just did stupid things constantly, 487 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,240 Speaker 1: and again I want to shoot on him as all 488 00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:55,000 Speaker 1: all I want to, But we saw with Morty Shawn Ei. 489 00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:58,359 Speaker 1: I mean how many years ago was that that they 490 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,520 Speaker 1: just have not The Chargers have had bad luck. It 491 00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:03,920 Speaker 1: feels like ch had my whole life, Like they literally 492 00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:08,080 Speaker 1: had prime Folk Rivers, Prime la Danian Thomason, and prime 493 00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,480 Speaker 1: Antonio Gates. I don't think they were made out of 494 00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:13,800 Speaker 1: the second round of the playoffs. So I just think 495 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:16,800 Speaker 1: that if anything's gonna break all this crap open it, 496 00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,639 Speaker 1: it's this team here because they just again you talked 497 00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,080 Speaker 1: about that Rams defense. It's the same exact kind of defense. 498 00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,440 Speaker 1: Its Stars and Scrubs kind of defense. They don't have 499 00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:27,399 Speaker 1: as much depth as uh the Rams did a D line, 500 00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:30,600 Speaker 1: but I just all these things feel like it's lining 501 00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:33,760 Speaker 1: up perfectly for this Chargers team. Well, you nailed it. 502 00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:37,160 Speaker 1: As a reminder, I'm not just an annoying host. I've 503 00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:41,320 Speaker 1: been covering the sports betting world for many, many years, 504 00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:44,399 Speaker 1: and I can tell our listeners that when North Turner 505 00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:48,200 Speaker 1: was the coach of the then San Diego Chargers, there 506 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:51,880 Speaker 1: were two coaches in the NFL that wise guys believed 507 00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:54,560 Speaker 1: had an impact on the game positive year negatively, and 508 00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:58,160 Speaker 1: incorporated that into their handicap into their power ratings. Bill 509 00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:02,200 Speaker 1: Belichick positively was worth about a point. North Turner negatively 510 00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:05,919 Speaker 1: it was worth about a point. That's how bad people 511 00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:09,240 Speaker 1: thought north Turner was is that they were downgrading the 512 00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:12,159 Speaker 1: Chargers only based on him. There are no other coaches 513 00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:14,560 Speaker 1: that are gonna make that much of a difference that handicappers, 514 00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:18,200 Speaker 1: that professional betters like Simon are actually accounting for their 515 00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:21,960 Speaker 1: decision making in their handicap. You want to hear my 516 00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:25,639 Speaker 1: number one is Romeo Cornell. I thought any time that 517 00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,080 Speaker 1: guy was coaching, I had to fade him right away, 518 00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:31,240 Speaker 1: and then slowly Adam Gay started to pass to him. 519 00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:33,879 Speaker 1: Um as one of these guys I love to fade. 520 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,520 Speaker 1: So I'm right there with you. There are just certain 521 00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:38,399 Speaker 1: coaches that, no matter what, you grade them at a 522 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,520 Speaker 1: negative but you grade them at a negative. But are 523 00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:44,879 Speaker 1: there coaches right now in the NFL where when you 524 00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:48,159 Speaker 1: are doing your power ratings you add or subtract points 525 00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:50,959 Speaker 1: because of them? Or that's just sort of you know, 526 00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:55,159 Speaker 1: if they're coaching on the sideline instinctively, you've got an edge. No, 527 00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:57,440 Speaker 1: And I tell you all the time. I my to 528 00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:00,640 Speaker 1: me and football the most important positions quarterback for the 529 00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:02,680 Speaker 1: number for how much you great out to a team. 530 00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:06,280 Speaker 1: The second one is head coach. It's it never happens. 531 00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:09,119 Speaker 1: Bad coaches never win super Bowls. It just does not 532 00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:11,280 Speaker 1: happen in this in this day and aging anymore. Like 533 00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:14,000 Speaker 1: you can think of guy is an idiot, but maybe 534 00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 1: he's great with people. He's just not a good head coach. 535 00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:18,239 Speaker 1: Like people always say, what the hell does what if 536 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:21,199 Speaker 1: the hell does Tomlin do for the Pittsburgh Steelers. We 537 00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:22,879 Speaker 1: talked about the time chat. The guy has never had 538 00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:25,320 Speaker 1: a losing season. That man has never been below five 539 00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,320 Speaker 1: hundred his entire time in Pittsburgh. Let me greatest of 540 00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:30,119 Speaker 1: all time, look at your work. You don't need to 541 00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:31,560 Speaker 1: be a great offensive mine. You don't need to be 542 00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:35,200 Speaker 1: a great defensive mine. All these guys can bring different 543 00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,240 Speaker 1: things to the tail with these different style of coaches, 544 00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:39,640 Speaker 1: like it all depends on what kind of guys they are, 545 00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,680 Speaker 1: So for me going to this season, I would say 546 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,200 Speaker 1: the two lowest coaches I have greater right now is 547 00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:47,840 Speaker 1: Kingsbury and Zach Taylor. These are two guys I will 548 00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:50,920 Speaker 1: be fading a lot this upcoming season, so definitely something 549 00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:53,120 Speaker 1: to keep in mind when you're betting these different teams. Well, 550 00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:55,880 Speaker 1: please refer to the last episode of the podcast for 551 00:27:55,920 --> 00:28:00,879 Speaker 1: our rant and rave on Cliff Kingsbury for producer Matt Mitchell. 552 00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,800 Speaker 1: And now a word from our friends at FanDuel. College 553 00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:10,879 Speaker 1: football is back and FanDuel Sports Book is making Week 554 00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:14,480 Speaker 1: one even more exciting. Right now, all customers get a 555 00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:19,119 Speaker 1: risk free bet on any Week one game that's right place, 556 00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:22,040 Speaker 1: any Week one bet and get a refund insight credit 557 00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:25,520 Speaker 1: if you don't win. To get you started. 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You and I had talked about this earlier 578 00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:35,520 Speaker 1: in the year. Teddy Bridgewater goes to the Broncos Um 579 00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:37,840 Speaker 1: Drew Lock had been the quarterback there. We had made 580 00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:39,720 Speaker 1: a lot of bets on the Broncos last year. We 581 00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:42,920 Speaker 1: lived and died by Drew Lock, and at the very 582 00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:44,440 Speaker 1: end of the year it paid off for us, but 583 00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:47,600 Speaker 1: mostly it might have cost us from going twenty four 584 00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:52,880 Speaker 1: in the the pick up contest callers, Yeah, it definitely 585 00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:57,560 Speaker 1: probably lost us tens of thousands of dollars UM Broncos 586 00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:00,360 Speaker 1: fifty one to one in the conference. Fe didn't want 587 00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:03,280 Speaker 1: Super Bowl twenty two, Conference six to one, Division seven 588 00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:06,320 Speaker 1: and a half season win total. I gotta bet the 589 00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:10,840 Speaker 1: over on this because of Teddy Bridgewater. I feel like 590 00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:13,000 Speaker 1: he doesn't get the credit he deserves as a guy 591 00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:16,280 Speaker 1: who can manage it. And their talent is just much 592 00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:20,000 Speaker 1: better to talk about getting better by by injured guys 593 00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:24,680 Speaker 1: coming back. Courtland Sutton, Jerry Judy proved he can be 594 00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:28,680 Speaker 1: an all world receiver. Von Miller comes back right Like, 595 00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,840 Speaker 1: this is a team that gets stronger just by having 596 00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:37,320 Speaker 1: the players they normally have on the field. Don't do it, chat, 597 00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:39,600 Speaker 1: don't do what everyone's drinking the kool Ai. Don't be 598 00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,160 Speaker 1: one of those people drinking the Denver cool aid covers. 599 00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,400 Speaker 1: Teddy covers. We did the fantasy draft. People are talking 600 00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:48,080 Speaker 1: about they moved up UM Denver players last night because 601 00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:50,880 Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgemard was a starting quarterback. As if this guy 602 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:53,920 Speaker 1: didn't just throw fifteen touchdowns last year. It's like, what 603 00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:56,520 Speaker 1: do we What are we doing here? It's like, I 604 00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:59,760 Speaker 1: get it, Teddy Bridgewater is Alex Smith. They're pretty much 605 00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:01,560 Speaker 1: the same him. That kind of the NFL player where 606 00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:04,160 Speaker 1: it's like they're not gonna kill you, but they're also 607 00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:06,320 Speaker 1: not setting the world on fire, which again, that could 608 00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:10,840 Speaker 1: be really beneficial to Denver, but to me, he's not 609 00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:14,360 Speaker 1: one of these guys that again, he covers. I'm with 610 00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:16,640 Speaker 1: you on that. He he isn't. He is great at covering. 611 00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:19,520 Speaker 1: He's just not consistent. And that's what I need in 612 00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:21,360 Speaker 1: the NFL. I need someone to be consistent. I need 613 00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:23,200 Speaker 1: someone to be healthy and two things he's not that 614 00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:26,440 Speaker 1: great at. It's being healthy and being consistent. So I mean, 615 00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:28,280 Speaker 1: it feels like Teddy's been in the NFL now for 616 00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:30,800 Speaker 1: seven six seven years and I think he's only played 617 00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:34,360 Speaker 1: three full seasons. He's never for more than fifteen touchdowns 618 00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:37,200 Speaker 1: on those three seasons. Um, that's pretty alarming. I get it. 619 00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:40,600 Speaker 1: He can eat a mobile quarterback, but again, I think 620 00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:43,560 Speaker 1: Herbert through twenty seven touchdowns last year and his rookie year, 621 00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:46,760 Speaker 1: what are we talking about here? So that's that's the 622 00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:48,520 Speaker 1: hardest part here, is like I gotta be that guy 623 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:50,520 Speaker 1: to come here and kind of smack down the good vibes. 624 00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:53,360 Speaker 1: I'm with you, Denver. It's incredible talent. I love that 625 00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:56,080 Speaker 1: they picked Teddy over Drew Lock. That was definitely a 626 00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:58,680 Speaker 1: smart move by then, but it doesn't do enough for me. 627 00:31:58,680 --> 00:31:59,920 Speaker 1: It kind of feels like that's one of the things 628 00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:01,880 Speaker 1: they're just treading water until next year where they can 629 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,000 Speaker 1: get Aaron Rodgers. It feels like one of those teams 630 00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:06,440 Speaker 1: that even they don't believe they really have a chance 631 00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:09,080 Speaker 1: this year. So for me, I'm just not putting any 632 00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:12,600 Speaker 1: stake into Denver. But next year's Super Bowl futures, that's 633 00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:14,800 Speaker 1: something I'm in. In In February, keep this in mind, Denver, 634 00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:16,520 Speaker 1: they're gonna be like four you to one next year. 635 00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:20,160 Speaker 1: Hit that before they get Rodgers. You're already planning. I 636 00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:22,840 Speaker 1: love that. It's like this is how you get in early, right, 637 00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:26,680 Speaker 1: this is this is like you're you're the Broncos. Are 638 00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:31,080 Speaker 1: next year's crypto punk. That's what it is. It's pretty 639 00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:32,880 Speaker 1: much out. That's honestly how I look at this stuff, 640 00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:35,280 Speaker 1: where it's like I might not love him right now, 641 00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:37,400 Speaker 1: but like next year, I'm already thinking about what they 642 00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:43,160 Speaker 1: could have. So today there was a story that Mark Davis, 643 00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:46,000 Speaker 1: the owner of the Raiders, is building a fifteen thousand 644 00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:51,520 Speaker 1: square foot house in the suburbs of Nevada that is 645 00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:56,880 Speaker 1: meant to replicate the Raiders training facility, both of which 646 00:32:56,960 --> 00:33:01,800 Speaker 1: look a little bit like some futuristic Death Star Darth 647 00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:07,920 Speaker 1: Vader headquarters. All I could think was people in their money. 648 00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:11,800 Speaker 1: That's it, Like, like, why else do you do that? 649 00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:15,200 Speaker 1: Why else do you spend fourteen million dollars unless it's 650 00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:16,680 Speaker 1: just like I got too much. I don't have to 651 00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:19,000 Speaker 1: do with it. Not even that. Can you imagine building 652 00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:22,720 Speaker 1: a house that's all black in the middle of the desert. Again, 653 00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:25,959 Speaker 1: I don't know how what is What do you think 654 00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:27,719 Speaker 1: is like a c bill? Is it has to be 655 00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:29,840 Speaker 1: like a couple of ten grand maybe twenty grand a 656 00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:32,760 Speaker 1: month with the whole house that's black. And yet the 657 00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:37,400 Speaker 1: guy refuses to spend on a haircut let me come on, 658 00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:43,320 Speaker 1: or refuses to stop his coach that he overpays because 659 00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:45,200 Speaker 1: he was really good as an announcer on Monday Night 660 00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:48,600 Speaker 1: football from trading the single best player on his team 661 00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:51,680 Speaker 1: named Khalil Mack, who he is now desperate to get 662 00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:54,760 Speaker 1: back because he realizes oh ship the rest of my 663 00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:56,959 Speaker 1: team is pretty good. And as you point out, Simon, 664 00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:59,760 Speaker 1: Derek Carr isn't that bad either, And if he only 665 00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:02,960 Speaker 1: had somebody who could stop somebody on the defensive side 666 00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:05,200 Speaker 1: of the ball, they might have a shot to make 667 00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:08,759 Speaker 1: the playoffs in their division. Explain your Derek Carr uh 668 00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:12,120 Speaker 1: love right now. And again that's why, like I tried, 669 00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:14,200 Speaker 1: have to shoot on Grouten too much, because he still 670 00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:18,440 Speaker 1: got it in some ways, like he I watched film. 671 00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:21,480 Speaker 1: He'll run plays that we ran in the seventies and eighties, 672 00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,080 Speaker 1: which again we're gonna laugh about. Oh look at these 673 00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:26,880 Speaker 1: old ass plays he's running. They work because defenses have 674 00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:29,160 Speaker 1: no idea, they've never seen him before. And he does 675 00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:32,000 Speaker 1: little things like that that I love. And again we 676 00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:33,880 Speaker 1: can talk about how good he is at a scout talent. 677 00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:37,120 Speaker 1: His defense is trash. Okay, him and may Doc cannot 678 00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:40,319 Speaker 1: draft defensive players if their life's depended on it. I'm 679 00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:42,840 Speaker 1: with you on that. Okay, they're terrible at drafting defensive players. 680 00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:45,520 Speaker 1: There's also a team that picked up Waller, who turned 681 00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:47,880 Speaker 1: out to be an absolute stud. When Baltimore got rid 682 00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:50,319 Speaker 1: of him, they drafted Hunter Renfro, who I think is 683 00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:53,560 Speaker 1: a really good slot receiver and they got him late 684 00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:56,440 Speaker 1: to their offense is actually pretty good. They got a 685 00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:59,280 Speaker 1: lot of pieces there that are pretty dang good. And 686 00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:02,960 Speaker 1: like you just said that Khalil Mack thing, it didn't 687 00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:06,040 Speaker 1: make sense because they traded him for three three draft picks. 688 00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:08,319 Speaker 1: None of those draft picks have worked out or even 689 00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:11,600 Speaker 1: become close to being the player Khalil Mack is. And 690 00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:13,040 Speaker 1: that's what I think. He kind of got a little 691 00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:15,000 Speaker 1: lesson in where it's like he thought he was gonna 692 00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:16,880 Speaker 1: come in, you know, make big changes to get a 693 00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:18,920 Speaker 1: lot of draft capital. He was able to find talent 694 00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:22,360 Speaker 1: in the different positions, but it just does not work 695 00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:25,120 Speaker 1: that way. So when I'm looking this team, I'm not 696 00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:27,320 Speaker 1: here to tell you that, yeah, they're gonna win this division, 697 00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:30,560 Speaker 1: They're gonna make the playoffs. I'm going to talk about 698 00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:33,200 Speaker 1: the different things you can find value with their car 699 00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:35,560 Speaker 1: right now. Again, we have an article coming out either 700 00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:37,320 Speaker 1: this week or next week with my favorite long shots. 701 00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:39,279 Speaker 1: He's thirty eight to one to lead the league in 702 00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:42,680 Speaker 1: passing yards. I kind of like that value. Derek Carr 703 00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:45,440 Speaker 1: plays an indoor for Las Vegas for half his games 704 00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:47,759 Speaker 1: and then on the road a lot of these teams 705 00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:50,279 Speaker 1: just playing against don't have that great defenses, and they're 706 00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:53,000 Speaker 1: playing a last place schedule as well. So I'm not 707 00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:55,800 Speaker 1: saying Derek Carr is a top ten quarterback any measurement, 708 00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:58,319 Speaker 1: but I think this guy is enough talent and there's 709 00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:00,479 Speaker 1: really enough pieces there that he could lead the league 710 00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:03,120 Speaker 1: in passing at one that's really good value, and I 711 00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:05,600 Speaker 1: would take that chance. I'm not gonna tell you guys 712 00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:07,920 Speaker 1: about them super Bowl. I'm definitely not gonna tell you 713 00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:10,880 Speaker 1: guys about them win this division, and I'm not gonna 714 00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:13,840 Speaker 1: tell you to bet them season win totals. But I 715 00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:20,080 Speaker 1: will tell you Week one, Opening Night, Monday Night Football, Chad, 716 00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:22,239 Speaker 1: we we kind of love them. We we kind of 717 00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:24,200 Speaker 1: love We don't bet Monday for the contest. So that's 718 00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:25,719 Speaker 1: the only thing holding me back right now. We really 719 00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:30,080 Speaker 1: don't do Mondays for the contest. But man opening Night 720 00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:35,560 Speaker 1: in that stadium against the Ravens overvalued Ravens. Oh, it's 721 00:36:35,560 --> 00:36:39,080 Speaker 1: gonna be very tempting. It's gonna be really hard the 722 00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:42,319 Speaker 1: first time fans are in that stadium, you know they're there. 723 00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:45,120 Speaker 1: As much as we can make fun of Mark Davis 724 00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:50,400 Speaker 1: and and that world generally, there is something very special 725 00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:53,600 Speaker 1: about Raiders fans. Raiders fans who had no chance to 726 00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:55,719 Speaker 1: see their team in the first year in brand new 727 00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:59,880 Speaker 1: stadium last year. Right now, I'm looking at that line 728 00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:04,960 Speaker 1: the Action Network gap. It's free. The Las Vegas Raiders 729 00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:11,640 Speaker 1: um are plus four. Wow, so that's moving. It was 730 00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:13,879 Speaker 1: five five and a half, so that's moving people. That's 731 00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:17,560 Speaker 1: moving down. Let me let me see, let me make 732 00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:19,400 Speaker 1: sure that I'm getting the right one four and a 733 00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:23,440 Speaker 1: half at at fandel it's four and a half. So 734 00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:27,400 Speaker 1: it's not bad. That's not bad at all. And it's 735 00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:30,520 Speaker 1: again I'm not here to say I think the Raiders 736 00:37:30,520 --> 00:37:33,399 Speaker 1: are a better team than the Ravens. Cha Chad will 737 00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:36,760 Speaker 1: explain to you people. We we do weird things all season. 738 00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:39,000 Speaker 1: If you're near to the show, we bet ugly. We 739 00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:41,560 Speaker 1: have things called big Big Balls Better the Week. We 740 00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:43,840 Speaker 1: have Foxhold Bets of the Week. We do a lot 741 00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:46,200 Speaker 1: of stuff here that can make you feel very uncomfortable. 742 00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:48,279 Speaker 1: But that's how we win. And that's like, that's the 743 00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:49,759 Speaker 1: who point of this show is. That's why I wanted 744 00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:52,399 Speaker 1: to do. It's like no one wins every year betting 745 00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:55,160 Speaker 1: all these favorites minus three minus four, like that's just 746 00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:56,919 Speaker 1: not how it works. You have to take these ugly 747 00:37:57,000 --> 00:37:59,280 Speaker 1: dogs and that's that's where you're gonna make your money. 748 00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:02,440 Speaker 1: So I'm down on Vegas just because I don't think 749 00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:05,440 Speaker 1: they have the defense this year. But in fantasy and 750 00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:08,440 Speaker 1: in the gambling spirit, over under it's like, like, you know, 751 00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:11,040 Speaker 1: I'll be betting this team's overs a lot of times, 752 00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:14,360 Speaker 1: Like if they're playing the Chiefs and they're overs fifty, 753 00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:17,520 Speaker 1: I'm taking that over. Every every day, I'm taking that over. 754 00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:21,040 Speaker 1: So I'm trying to get people to understand here that 755 00:38:21,719 --> 00:38:24,600 Speaker 1: this offense is way better than people realize. So just 756 00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:27,960 Speaker 1: don't don't just overlook Oakland just because Gruden's kind of 757 00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:29,839 Speaker 1: become a joke this this team still has a lot 758 00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:32,600 Speaker 1: of talent on it, or because they've moved to Las Vegas. 759 00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:41,880 Speaker 1: Damn it. Let me summarize Kansas City. We like under 760 00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:46,839 Speaker 1: twelve Los Angeles Chargers super Bowl thirty three to one. 761 00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:50,440 Speaker 1: Go but maybe wait because Sam and also think they 762 00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:52,319 Speaker 1: might lose to Washington the first week and you'll get 763 00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:55,319 Speaker 1: better odds after week one. Sixteen to one Conference go 764 00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:59,000 Speaker 1: four fifty. Uh for plus four fifty to win the division, 765 00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:02,600 Speaker 1: go over nine, go a little bit on them to 766 00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:04,719 Speaker 1: be the number one seed. Check your local book. It's 767 00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:06,719 Speaker 1: it's really good value. Oh that's a good one too, 768 00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:09,680 Speaker 1: all right, Denver is a pass all the way around. 769 00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:13,120 Speaker 1: There's nothing there the Las Vegas Raiders. We don't like 770 00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:15,719 Speaker 1: any of the odds on anything, but we do like 771 00:39:15,920 --> 00:39:20,600 Speaker 1: Derek Carr thirty eight to one, A little taste, Little taste, 772 00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:25,959 Speaker 1: Little sprinkle one. Uh to throw for the most yards 773 00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:30,320 Speaker 1: in the NFL this year. I love it, dude. We 774 00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:35,480 Speaker 1: covered all thirty two teams. Who's to be done? We 775 00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:39,040 Speaker 1: got through all thirty two teams, which means, um, next 776 00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:41,680 Speaker 1: week we start making picks. Baby, we get back to 777 00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:45,640 Speaker 1: who we are. We get picking. And if you again 778 00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:48,160 Speaker 1: and check, keep talking abody. If you're new here, we 779 00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:54,080 Speaker 1: came in twenty four place sixt the season. We're pretty 780 00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:55,759 Speaker 1: good at what we do here, Chad, So we are 781 00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:58,320 Speaker 1: very good. Please check out the keep listening to the 782 00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:00,640 Speaker 1: show all season. If you're into making five picks every week, 783 00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:03,360 Speaker 1: we are very good at it. Uh. And don't forget 784 00:40:03,440 --> 00:40:06,360 Speaker 1: Simon has offered to give away one of his four 785 00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:10,719 Speaker 1: biggest bets of the year UH to anyone giving a 786 00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:12,839 Speaker 1: five star review. We will make the choice. It will 787 00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:16,880 Speaker 1: be randomly chosen by Matt Mitchell, the producer, but someone 788 00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:19,960 Speaker 1: will win that. All you gotta do is go give 789 00:40:20,000 --> 00:40:22,040 Speaker 1: a five star review of the podcast and you can 790 00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:24,080 Speaker 1: make fun of me or chat if I laugh at it. 791 00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:26,120 Speaker 1: I'm all the laughing at myself. I mean, look at me, 792 00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:27,960 Speaker 1: look at the space. You need to laugh at yourself. 793 00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:30,239 Speaker 1: By the way, last year we did this every single week. 794 00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:32,439 Speaker 1: We were giving away prizes to people every single week 795 00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:35,520 Speaker 1: for reviews. The reviews were hilarious. We love to laugh 796 00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:39,000 Speaker 1: at ourselves. Yeah, so please let me be your punching bag. 797 00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:41,239 Speaker 1: As long as we laugh, you can still win. That's right. 798 00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:43,759 Speaker 1: As long as we laugh in it's five stars, you 799 00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:47,720 Speaker 1: can win. Yeah. Uh for Simon Hunter, I am Chad Nolan. 800 00:40:47,880 --> 00:40:50,240 Speaker 1: This has been the favorites from the Volume podcast Network. 801 00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:53,360 Speaker 1: Download the podcast from Spotify, from Apple podcast, go rate, review, 802 00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:55,960 Speaker 1: subscribe wherever you get your podcast. We'll be back on 803 00:40:56,000 --> 00:41:00,239 Speaker 1: Tuesday with our first look at our five picks for 804 00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:04,319 Speaker 1: the NFL Season twenty one. Until then, I love you,