Speaker 1: Check it down Man, No down Man, Thursday morning to
Speaker 1: number ten, beating the book Podcast Mega Pod for a
Speaker 1: week number fourteen. Can't believe that. For the National Football League,
Speaker 1: of course, thanks for tuning in once again. I've had
Speaker 1: a ball with this all season long. We continue to
Speaker 1: have a blast with us. I haven't seen a penny
Speaker 1: Mikey with the good folks over, haven't. We haven't. That's right,
Speaker 1: we haven't. I'm sorry I say that out loud ready
Speaker 1: with the Vaga Pod. I appreciate it. I think I
Speaker 1: had a big week last week, tod It's gonna update
Speaker 1: that momentarily, as always the regulars on the show. What
Speaker 1: I'm dejected now, I'm blown the lead. You're you zoom
Speaker 1: past me. I can't beat one into one and two
Speaker 1: for like four straight weeks. I know. I'd like to,
Speaker 1: I'd like to brag, but I'm like twenty seventeen and
Speaker 1: two or something, so it's not that much to brag about.
Speaker 1: That's the voice of Mike Palm, the the conciliary to
Speaker 1: Derek Stevens here at Circuit Sports, Vice President of Operations.
Speaker 1: Thank you, Mikey for having us at the d where
Speaker 1: we are live each and every week. It's exciting, exciting
Speaker 1: to be at bar Canada, exciting to have a Canadian on. Yes,
Speaker 1: an actual Canadian, real life Canadian. Let's say hello to
Speaker 1: Todd Wishing at first tailor staple of the show. Hello Todd,
Speaker 1: how are you? Todd? Hi? Mike, how are you start
Speaker 1: the showtime Action? Our docuseries Action And the actual Canadian
Speaker 1: that you're talking about, because we're coming from bar Canada
Speaker 1: air at the day, I believe it's in Alberta, Canada,
Speaker 1: Am correct in that? Is that correct? Adam Alberta, Canada. Yes, indeed,
Speaker 1: the great Adam Churnoff, who I have never had the
Speaker 1: pleasure of meeting before. I've never had the pleasure of
Speaker 1: having him on the podcast. Uh. He is the host
Speaker 1: of The Simple Handicap. Wherever podcasts are distributed, Uh, it
Speaker 1: is a must listen, especially in the year of COVID,
Speaker 1: to have updates on a daily basis. You do a
Speaker 1: spectacular job with that. You do a spectacular job on
Speaker 1: Visa on Follow the Money, Adam, thank you for doing
Speaker 1: this man, thanks for having me on. It's the megaput.
Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to it. Thank you. I appreciate it. Um. So,
Speaker 1: before we get into the three best bets and our
Speaker 1: teaser legs, uh Survivor thoughts, and of course the final
Speaker 1: two questions about which big favorite is most likely lose
Speaker 1: out right? Which game you want no part of? Mikey
Speaker 1: a Circus Survivor and if you want to a circum
Speaker 1: Millions update if you'd like, well the millions everybody, how
Speaker 1: could you pick a loser? I mean, we're a hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty people went five and oh and I managed
Speaker 1: to eight hundred and eighty one. People are four and
Speaker 1: one are better to start out the fourth quarter? So
Speaker 1: I'm like Cramer on the on the final quarterly, I'm like,
Speaker 1: I'm out. So yeah, that's where that stands. And the
Speaker 1: presence the guy that has three entries, he's in first
Speaker 1: third and died for ten Adam, are you in Circle Millions?
Speaker 1: I am not not involved in any content. If I
Speaker 1: if I lived a little bit closer, potentially that would change. Yes.
Speaker 1: Now in the Survivor, we went from one oh three
Speaker 1: down to eighty nine, with twelve entries going the way
Speaker 1: of the Dodo on the Seahawks who are upset by
Speaker 1: the Giants, and another two on Monday with your football
Speaker 1: team rallying from fourteen nothing down with the help of
Speaker 1: a missing Caball to upset the Steelers and end there
Speaker 1: and then and then their undefeated season. So we're down
Speaker 1: to eighty nine, of which two have the Seahawks available
Speaker 1: this week laying fourteen against the Jets at home. Yes,
Speaker 1: so this week comes down this was so I look
Speaker 1: at it this way as one of the final eighty
Speaker 1: nine people in there, or it's actually eighty four people
Speaker 1: but eight um five with two. This is the This
Speaker 1: is the final week where there is either no carnage
Speaker 1: at all because everybody's going to take the Seahawks and
Speaker 1: they end up winning, which is very possible to be
Speaker 1: the Jets, or it's supreme carnage in that everybody takes
Speaker 1: the Seahawks and somehow they managed to lose that game.
Speaker 1: But this is the final week where I think it.
Speaker 1: I think it's the last week where everybody's got the
Speaker 1: obvious team available. After this, it's going to get very interesting.
Speaker 1: Three and a half still my over under on the chop.
Speaker 1: I like my number to twenty nine and a half
Speaker 1: todds going under on both of us. James Salinas, your
Speaker 1: friend and professional contest player and a co host of
Speaker 1: the Mike Pritchard Power Hour on Visa and UH said
Speaker 1: that my number was super sharp, that he put it
Speaker 1: right at thirty. Uh, and it was based on seven
Speaker 1: people last week having two entries still Uh, the multiple
Speaker 1: entries um all is convinced at sixty now he went
Speaker 1: out from fifty to sixty five after last. People don't
Speaker 1: understand there's still a quarter of the season left. After
Speaker 1: this week, it's going to go. Week seventeen will be
Speaker 1: very difficult because you have to assess who's trying to play. Correct,
Speaker 1: that's the thing, and hopefully you're down to you know,
Speaker 1: few enough people. If you're still in that your headge
Speaker 1: can be pretty obvious. And circummillions Uh, Las Vegas Chris,
Speaker 1: who was a it was nice enough to get a
Speaker 1: guest on the megapod last week, mentioned to me that
Speaker 1: people should know because he's got two entries in contention.
Speaker 1: If you're at the top of circum millions, know that
Speaker 1: the tiebreaker is the last quarter and so you've kind
Speaker 1: of already virtually lost a half game before you even
Speaker 1: start here. Correct, Yeah, there's tiebreakers. There are no tiebreakers
Speaker 1: and survivor why did you decide on that tiebreaker, by
Speaker 1: the way, because we wanted one person to win a
Speaker 1: million dollars. Yeah, we wanted to give a check for
Speaker 1: a million. Uma there was I I understand why you
Speaker 1: survived with the and that's why I have this background
Speaker 1: up for you in the Raiders game. I thought about
Speaker 1: it long and hard, and now I finally realized what
Speaker 1: happened last week. I was winning every single early game bet,
Speaker 1: which I did win except for one, which was the
Speaker 1: Houston Texans plus three against the Colts. And the Texans
Speaker 1: were inside the five yard line late in the game.
Speaker 1: All they have to do is punch it in. They
Speaker 1: go up by one, they end up losing by two
Speaker 1: and a OG or they end up winning the game.
Speaker 1: And I cover every single game now because Hashem doesn't
Speaker 1: like me, he won't let me get a full slate
Speaker 1: of bets all to win. So and then the law
Speaker 1: of physics says that energy cannot be you know, lost
Speaker 1: or gained. It can only be transformed. So the energy
Speaker 1: that was being used to wipe me out in that
Speaker 1: football game was then no longer available when Greg Williams's
Speaker 1: brain needed to tell them to be in pre event. Therefore,
Speaker 1: allowing for the most ridiculous ending in the history of
Speaker 1: a football game, and you surviving in Survivors. So that
Speaker 1: was probably the only I wish you had a camera
Speaker 1: on me. When my eye saw Henry Ruggs go past
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson at that ball was in the air, I
Speaker 1: went ballistic by two things. One for those who are like,
Speaker 1: what is Hashem? Hashem again the Hebrew for the name,
Speaker 1: which is what orthodox use. Todd was one of them,
Speaker 1: once upon a time called God, and Todd believes that
Speaker 1: Hashem has a lifelong fan dead against him. I don't
Speaker 1: believe in the old man with a scoreboard type of God.
Speaker 1: But I just do it as a joke because we
Speaker 1: always joke around about how I find a way to
Speaker 1: lose to an earthquake. It's only you who gets bad beats,
Speaker 1: not only you, know, it is only let's put it
Speaker 1: this way, everyone gets a certain percentage of bad beats.
Speaker 1: I get fifth standard deviation. Okay, I don't know about that. Uh.
Speaker 1: This is where I go to Adam though, because on
Speaker 1: the simple handicap Adam. Adam has done a spectacular job
Speaker 1: of out of laying out what happened at the end
Speaker 1: of that game, and I think it was in the prison.
Speaker 1: You correct me if I'm rolling adam of people who
Speaker 1: thought it was a tank. You you had a whole
Speaker 1: thing about this. Yeah. So I'm lifelong Jets fan from Saskatchewan, Canada,
Speaker 1: which makes a lot of sense, but they've always in
Speaker 1: my but like Greg Williams has a history of doing this,
Speaker 1: and he essentially did it the entire two thousand's seventeen
Speaker 1: season with the Browns, who also happened to have sort
Speaker 1: of a similar record to the Jets, which hopefully I
Speaker 1: don't they don't finish with. But like, remember when he
Speaker 1: did that whole angel safety thing where he was playing
Speaker 1: a guy like thirty yards off the line of scrimmage
Speaker 1: up a touchdown against Darren Rodgers and thought it was
Speaker 1: a good idea and he just let the Packers walk
Speaker 1: down the field twice in the fourth quarter and overtime
Speaker 1: and he didn't really there was nobody was talking about
Speaker 1: panking like we are now um at that time, and
Speaker 1: he sort of got a pass for it. And so
Speaker 1: like I think now he's doing essentially or was doing
Speaker 1: the exact opposite with the Jets when he's bringing zero
Speaker 1: blitz against the Raiders, in that situation against Derek Carr,
Speaker 1: who's like the last quarterback you're gonna do that against.
Speaker 1: But like, what's the benefit of him was getting a salary,
Speaker 1: Like it's likely going to be his last DC job,
Speaker 1: He's making a million and a half and he's going
Speaker 1: to throw it away all for the better of the
Speaker 1: Jets franchise, who were gonna get Trevor Lawrence next year
Speaker 1: when he's not even involved, Like, I just I don't
Speaker 1: see the upside for him just doing doing the Jets
Speaker 1: of solid and thinking about the great of the franchise
Speaker 1: long term. I think it was just him being an
Speaker 1: incompetent defensive coordinator and actually thinking that it was a
Speaker 1: good idea. So um for me, I'm not a huge
Speaker 1: tanking guy, especially in the NFL where it's so physical
Speaker 1: and there's a lot of money at stake for these
Speaker 1: guys and jobs. I think it's just that there's a
Speaker 1: lot of incompetent defensive and offensive coordinators head coaches too,
Speaker 1: and we sort of lose track of that and think
Speaker 1: there's something bigger going on. And arrogance, right, just complete
Speaker 1: arrogance on his part and especially from him and what
Speaker 1: he's done over the last decade in the NFL. I
Speaker 1: just couldn't believe it when when Car overthrown I don't
Speaker 1: really know if it was an overthrown, but when he
Speaker 1: had Agalore the previous play open and he overshot him,
Speaker 1: I immediately, as a guy who had the raiders and survivor,
Speaker 1: I was like, oh, that was the chance, that was
Speaker 1: the play. Oh, I can't believe I had a shot
Speaker 1: at this. And then explain it happens again, and it's amazing.
Speaker 1: The one thing, poor Lamar Jackson on an island bit
Speaker 1: on a fake they have no time out. He bites
Speaker 1: inside and Rugs, who does one thing better than any
Speaker 1: other human on the planet or most humans, is run
Speaker 1: by You did just that and Car hits him. I'll
Speaker 1: if I get to the end, I will remember that
Speaker 1: for a lifetime. And I'm going in. If you don't
Speaker 1: get to the end, you'll remember it. That's true. That ridiculous.
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna send Rugs and Car something in the
Speaker 1: mail if that happens. When Um Glennon when they were
Speaker 1: up nine nothing the Jags and they had a first
Speaker 1: down round of the Vikings thirty and they got a
Speaker 1: false start, so it was first and fifteen and then
Speaker 1: Glennon through an interception. Yes, I got a text from
Speaker 1: someone who's still in the survivor and he said, when
Speaker 1: everyone when everyone is chopping up their checks at the
Speaker 1: end of the year for a survivor, they'll be talking
Speaker 1: about where they were when Glennon through this interception. That's
Speaker 1: nothing compared to the who knew who knew that that
Speaker 1: would happen at the end. Compared to that, Yeah, I
Speaker 1: wonder who that was. If you want me to give
Speaker 1: you the for the for the record, let's up the record.
Speaker 1: Before I do that, I'll just say, you know, I
Speaker 1: grew up in Pittsburgh, but I'm a huge Moose, just
Speaker 1: Saskatchewan Warriors fan for many many years. I'm just I
Speaker 1: looked that up at him anyways, uh uh the uh Okay,
Speaker 1: So gilly Ice, it's what they call him. Gilly Ice
Speaker 1: went three and oh last week outstanding. Now there was
Speaker 1: another person that also happened to go three and oh.
Speaker 1: And that's me too, baby, three and oh for me
Speaker 1: as well, and might eat palm right down the drain
Speaker 1: with a one in two including by the way, you
Speaker 1: lost that same um I had the plus three in Houston.
Speaker 1: You had the over, which was a horrible beat. It
Speaker 1: was at the half and somehow goes under final scor.
Speaker 1: That's incredible beat, Mike, that's incredible. I couldn't get over
Speaker 1: seven in the second half. That's what essentially my bet
Speaker 1: was unbelievable. It is what it is. But I don't
Speaker 1: think God had anything to do with it. You're not
Speaker 1: blaming God? No, no, okay, well, I mean, ultimately I
Speaker 1: don't really believe in that type of God either, But
Speaker 1: it's just a funny thing to say. Now. Gil is
Speaker 1: now seventeen and two, which in first place, mikey at
Speaker 1: eighteen nineteen and two and me right on his heels
Speaker 1: at eighteen twenty and one. In the teaser category, I
Speaker 1: am still the leader at nine and four Gil and
Speaker 1: Mike was solid eight and five numbers. So though, that
Speaker 1: is the year. Little update from last weekend for the season,
Speaker 1: thank you, and now we can commence with Thursday Night Football.
Speaker 1: Court stenographer Todd wishne um I failed to mention Adam
Speaker 1: any thoughts on Thursday Night Football. Maybe it's one of
Speaker 1: your best bets, maybe it's not, but just a few
Speaker 1: words if it's done. Uh, nothing for me on this one.
Speaker 1: I see that Pat's money continues to come in. He's
Speaker 1: even as we're talking. But um, I guess the only
Speaker 1: thing that I sort of came to mind when I
Speaker 1: saw this game and the number, which I thought was
Speaker 1: right when it opened, now getting a little bit shorter.
Speaker 1: But um, obviously the Patriots have that blueprint to beat
Speaker 1: Jared Goff. They have the quarters defense in their back
Speaker 1: pocket that they threw at him in the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1: We saw floor As do it with Miami against them
Speaker 1: this year as well, and so the game plan for
Speaker 1: them is certainly there. But this is the Pat's defense
Speaker 1: that is trending towards one of the worst seven or
Speaker 1: eight in the league, and it's the defense I've been
Speaker 1: very much down on. So my sort of trust in
Speaker 1: them executing that and being able to generate pressure on
Speaker 1: golf is not very high. So it's it's going to
Speaker 1: be a stay away from me. This is actually a
Speaker 1: pick for me. Is it for you or or you Todd?
Speaker 1: Anybody think for you? It must be the Patriots. No,
Speaker 1: absolutely not. You like the Rams tonight especially it's going
Speaker 1: the other way. It just warn you that in the
Speaker 1: fourth quarter you're gonna be rooting for Jared Goff, now continue,
Speaker 1: thank you, thank you for that. R mind. I will
Speaker 1: remember that when the fourth quarter starts being oh yeah,
Speaker 1: I forgot about this. I like the Rams. It's four
Speaker 1: and a half now, by the way, it just keeps coming.
Speaker 1: I wish it was four by the time we had
Speaker 1: done this, but I'll take I'll lay the four and
Speaker 1: a half. Agree with everything that Adam just said about
Speaker 1: the Patriots defense trending the wrong way. For me, this
Speaker 1: is this is more the other side of the ball,
Speaker 1: to which is Jalen Ramsey and Darius Williams. And Darius Williams,
Speaker 1: who's not as big of a household name as Jalen
Speaker 1: Ramsey is, actually ranks higher, like in Pro Football Focus
Speaker 1: corner ratings, like fourth in the league. I think Jalen's
Speaker 1: like sixties or seventeen. Those guys. The luxury of having
Speaker 1: those guys on an island against Cam Newton, who, by
Speaker 1: the way, in the forty five and nothing win over
Speaker 1: the Chargers. As Aaron Shots told me, his second worst
Speaker 1: special teams the Chargers second word special teams. In the
Speaker 1: last thirty five years, he hasn't ranked um but but
Speaker 1: Cam Newton through for sixty nine yards, Jalen Ramsey and
Speaker 1: Darius Williams. The thought of them, like Jalen Ramsey having
Speaker 1: to cover Jacoby Myers like doesn't really scare me that much.
Speaker 1: I don't know how the Rams score it, excuse me
Speaker 1: how the Patriots score in this game. So I really
Speaker 1: like the Rams tonight for all for both of those reasons,
Speaker 1: on both sides of the ball. Um, and I'll lay
Speaker 1: the four and a half. That's my number two pick
Speaker 1: of the week. Okay, let me ask you a few questions.
Speaker 1: If the a line we're six, would you lay six?
Speaker 1: Maybe not? Maybe? Maybe not? Yeah, but four and a half?
Speaker 1: I mean they feel a begging me. How do you
Speaker 1: feel about a total of forty four? If you think
Speaker 1: the Patriots will really struggle to score? Well, the Patriots
Speaker 1: path to victory is just like how they did it
Speaker 1: last week. You know, it's like the races, like the
Speaker 1: Ravens and the Cowboys the other night, right, the Cowboys
Speaker 1: get ten points based on a pick in a short
Speaker 1: field on a Pollard big kickoff return. I don't know
Speaker 1: how the Cowboys score otherwise if they don't get the help. Um,
Speaker 1: that's how I feel about the Patriots tonight. Well, the
Speaker 1: Rams are number one in yards per play at four
Speaker 1: point six per given up. The closest person to them
Speaker 1: or team is New Orleans at four point nine. And
Speaker 1: now what we all know, I am a big proponent
Speaker 1: of stats, Lie and Atlanta Falcons are thirty one at
Speaker 1: six point two yards per play given up. And they
Speaker 1: are not, I repeat, they are not the thirty first
Speaker 1: worst defense in the National Football League. There probably somewhere
Speaker 1: in the mid teens. So of course the stats lie,
Speaker 1: but the Rams are definitely an elite defense in today's NFL.
Speaker 1: So I agree with you. It's gonna be very tough
Speaker 1: for for New England to score in this game. The
Speaker 1: only thing is you have to root for Jared Goff
Speaker 1: and his look of deer in the headlights late in
Speaker 1: the ball game when it's four and a half, and
Speaker 1: you're gonna be crying later because you're gonna be like,
Speaker 1: I have everything based on this guy. Come on, and
Speaker 1: he's gonna have to throw too because they can't run
Speaker 1: the ball. I didn't know that. I didn't know that
Speaker 1: my pick has to withstand cross examination, but I appreciate it.
Speaker 1: That the the the the thing about Jared Pick, whoever
Speaker 1: you want we're you know, and you'll probably win. I'm
Speaker 1: just saying, you know, no, no no, no, if if it's
Speaker 1: a good point though, if Jared Goff, we're playing a
Speaker 1: primetime game in Chicago, do you remember that gaming played
Speaker 1: in Chicago a couple of years ago? Nothing or something?
Speaker 1: It was it was thirty two degrees Fahrenheugh Adam. I
Speaker 1: don't know what that is in celsius for you Canadians,
Speaker 1: I'm not sure what it is, but it's it's exactly
Speaker 1: warm summer day. I think it's zero degrees, right, because
Speaker 1: thirty two is freezing. Zero is freezing celsius, right, so
Speaker 1: it's zero, so it's not that old. It's just kind
Speaker 1: of cold. But the kid from the West Coast, he like,
Speaker 1: he looked like it was thirty two below the way
Speaker 1: he was playing that. But it's in l a subtract
Speaker 1: thirty two times by nine divide by five zero right,
Speaker 1: thirty correct? Very good, uh formula. What about Michael Lombardi's
Speaker 1: theory boy Todd's Todd's good friend Michael Lombardi and Michael
Speaker 1: Lombardi did something very nice in helping Dianna get tickets
Speaker 1: to go to the Patriots pregame season game, and then um,
Speaker 1: you know after that, who knows what? Yeah, who knows? Continue?
Speaker 1: Who says you should never pre flop a RAMS game?
Speaker 1: You should always wait and read Jared Goff's body language
Speaker 1: because you can tell by the end of the first
Speaker 1: quarter what his mental state is by his body language.
Speaker 1: Advice not bad advice. Well, he's almost right. You should
Speaker 1: never pre pre flop an NFL game, period. Why would you? Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's kind of true too. What do we do in here?
Speaker 1: He's all right, that's the end of the show. Everybody
Speaker 1: right at the foundations of the meg there goes to
Speaker 1: just pars just right right when he was within a
Speaker 1: half game of second. My brand is honesty. Your brand,
Speaker 1: Your brand is a little bit more you know, spin
Speaker 1: oriented more akin with two thousand twenty. You're more of
Speaker 1: a spinning type of guy. I'm more of a truth
Speaker 1: in your face guy. Talking to you. You're talking to
Speaker 1: or me? Yeah, first of all, were talking that you, Mikey,
Speaker 1: I don't know I was That was a toss up,
Speaker 1: so I leaned to you the whole time. I'm not
Speaker 1: a spinster, I'm a Spence. You're the ultimate spinster. You
Speaker 1: are Mr spin spin Spinster. All right, let's start with
Speaker 1: the best bets. For God's sakes, let's go to Adam
Speaker 1: churt Off again, the host of The Simple Handicap Available.
Speaker 1: We're all podcasts are distributed, yes, Adam, Yeah, Primary, Apple
Speaker 1: and Spotify if you can. If you can find podcasts,
Speaker 1: you'll find it. How many times a week do you
Speaker 1: put these these out? Every day? Every morning? It's was correct?
Speaker 1: You think of it like a ten of fifteen minute
Speaker 1: briefing on the market where prices are moving. And it's
Speaker 1: just sort of like people say, they listen to it
Speaker 1: walking the dog on the way to work, in the train,
Speaker 1: in the car. So it's just a quick morning pot
Speaker 1: every day. And let me just say before I put
Speaker 1: in my Survivor pick, this is a true story. One
Speaker 1: of the last things I consulted. Did could Adam give
Speaker 1: me something in the injury report that I've missed? So
Speaker 1: I absolutely give it a listen before putting it in.
Speaker 1: I love I love your podcast. What is your first
Speaker 1: best bet? Sir? It's probably going to be viewed as
Speaker 1: the squarest bet on the board, and people listening to
Speaker 1: the show, very intelligent listeners are probably gonna gock at it.
Speaker 1: But I have to lay seven and a half with
Speaker 1: the Packers on the road versus the Lions, and I
Speaker 1: don't know how much longer this number is going to
Speaker 1: be available for. But like, it's great that the Lions
Speaker 1: get Patricia out of there. It great they get to
Speaker 1: come back against the Bears. The comments were fantastic about
Speaker 1: the new energy with Bevil, but let's be honest. Bevil
Speaker 1: is not fixing this defense for the Lions anytime soon.
Speaker 1: And I'm not sure that there's the worst secondary in
Speaker 1: the NFL right now. Then the Detroit Lions, and this
Speaker 1: goes back to mid season when they were primarily a
Speaker 1: man defense team. They struggled some injuries, but then Patricia
Speaker 1: was actually smart enough to realize, Okay, we can't continue
Speaker 1: to play man coverage because we just don't have the
Speaker 1: talent on this roster. And so like Week six, they
Speaker 1: made the switch to zone and they've sort of been
Speaker 1: increasing their zone usage rate every single week since. But
Speaker 1: it's not working in their favor. Right. You look at
Speaker 1: some of these quarterbacks in their yards protempt and success.
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan through for eight yards per pass, Philip Rivers
Speaker 1: through for eight yards per pass, Kirk Cousins through for
Speaker 1: eleven yards per pass, Alex Smith through for seven and
Speaker 1: a half, p J Walker XFL product through for seven
Speaker 1: and a half, Watson through for twelve and a half
Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving, then Trubisky twice this season eight yards per
Speaker 1: passed against the Lions. And so now they get Aaron
Speaker 1: Rodgers and the Packers. I look through Aaron Rodgers just
Speaker 1: to sort of look at his season. I think we
Speaker 1: remember the Tampa Bay game where he was ugly and
Speaker 1: strewing picks. Believe it or not. His second worst performance
Speaker 1: this season in terms of like yardage output passer rating
Speaker 1: was against the Lions in Week two, the Packers one
Speaker 1: forty two to twenty one. And so this is a
Speaker 1: Packers team that's already moved the ball on the Lions.
Speaker 1: This is a team I think they can move the
Speaker 1: ball on the Lions again. And just from sort of
Speaker 1: the market perspective, we didn't see this number adjust despite
Speaker 1: the Packers dominating the Eagles, and then we saw the
Speaker 1: Lions get that win late, so there wasn't really much
Speaker 1: credit given to them. Two books on the board have
Speaker 1: gone from seven and a half to eight, and they
Speaker 1: were Chris and circa and so you know who's moving
Speaker 1: those numbers, and you know what type of bettors are
Speaker 1: playing into those markets. Early you compared to some of
Speaker 1: the other books on the board, maybe a little more
Speaker 1: recreational focused. Still sitting at seven and a half. I
Speaker 1: think with a favorite a big which usually sort of
Speaker 1: taboo to let as many points, you're getting the high total,
Speaker 1: so it's not as relevant. But it's a big price
Speaker 1: that I don't usually lay, but I'm pretty happy to
Speaker 1: lay it here with the packers Green Bay Adam's first
Speaker 1: pick of the week. Yes, geniuses are not always right
Speaker 1: in the NFL, so no need to apologize for standing
Speaker 1: up to their snob snobbery in telling in making you
Speaker 1: feel bad about your pick, you like your pick. And
Speaker 1: by the way, they're wrong all the time. They were
Speaker 1: wrong on the Tampa Bay overs every single week last year. Okay,
Speaker 1: so take that snobbery, idiot analytic jerk offs, Thank you, Adam.
Speaker 1: I just want to apologize in it. Fans are you're
Speaker 1: talking about? Who is she talking about? Who are they?
Speaker 1: I don't know who are they talking Adam? Because Bernie
Speaker 1: Harrowite like really smarty pants people are gonna not like
Speaker 1: his pick. He doesn't have to apologize for his pick.
Speaker 1: His pick is goddamn good and f them. Who are
Speaker 1: these smarty pants? Is though whoever Adam was concerned about.
Speaker 1: But I mean, it's not a concern about them. But
Speaker 1: I think, like anyone who's done this long and like
Speaker 1: laying more than a touchdown on the road typically, Um,
Speaker 1: not the most ad advantageous spot to get your money
Speaker 1: in the NFL pregame, but we understood the total. With
Speaker 1: the total this high, it's sort of the values that
Speaker 1: a little bit. But that's just sort of what I
Speaker 1: was putting up. Of course I took the incoming you know.
Speaker 1: All right, so Green Bay pick number one from Adam
Speaker 1: Churnoff mikey Well Todd referenced this game last week in Houston, Uh,
Speaker 1: with the Colts over, and um, I'm not going to
Speaker 1: get off it. I'm going back to Colts Raiders over
Speaker 1: fifty and hand is that the numbers? You've got fifty one? Todd? Damn.
Speaker 1: But if I'm not going to get a Colts over
Speaker 1: week this week, well, you know, the original, the original
Speaker 1: Rudy Rudyard Kipling, you know, wrote there are only four
Speaker 1: things Rudy, Rudy imperialist Rudy didn't know. There are only
Speaker 1: four things certain since social progress began. That the dog
Speaker 1: returns to his vomit, the pig returns to her meyer,
Speaker 1: and the burnt fool's bandaged finger goes wobbling back to
Speaker 1: the fire. And I'm going right back to the fire
Speaker 1: with the Colt silver look that games should have went
Speaker 1: over ten times last week. This Raiders defense is not good,
Speaker 1: not good, They're just not good. Do you know my
Speaker 1: internal thoughts? My well, I was hoping to get them
Speaker 1: through Survivors, like God, get me through this. This defense
Speaker 1: is atrocious, atrocious, It's atrocious, and yet Bruden calls a
Speaker 1: good game and they're able to use the tight end
Speaker 1: and they missed the running back last week obviously. But
Speaker 1: again the number is short to me. I think this
Speaker 1: number should be fifty four or fifty three and a half.
Speaker 1: So that's my best, what neuse, that's what I have mostly,
Speaker 1: that's okay. There's some fifty and a half talking here,
Speaker 1: Las Vegas, part Vegas, your Vegas Raiders. I'm sorry, I
Speaker 1: have it on spreads. Hope, please hope, please not prepared
Speaker 1: for the question. Apologies, um the internet here at the
Speaker 1: at Bar Canada is fabulous, though fifty one is what
Speaker 1: I have. There have secondary issues for the Raiders. You
Speaker 1: want to work and the favorite that over for sure
Speaker 1: serious secondary issues. Yeah, our net has the concussion. There's
Speaker 1: a couple of other sort of depth corners who are
Speaker 1: not practicing so far. So it certainly makes that Raiders
Speaker 1: defense a lot worse. I will say Cleland to Cleveland.
Speaker 1: Farrell had a couple of strip sacks in that game
Speaker 1: against the Jets which were huge, but you know, offensively
Speaker 1: the Raiders just a brief aside I said before that game,
Speaker 1: I was like, why don't the Raiders I'm no football genius,
Speaker 1: but but why don't they just go to Waller every
Speaker 1: single place? Like It's just amazing. It's so simple with them, um,
Speaker 1: and you would think defenses would figure out a way
Speaker 1: to do this. Maybe some have kind of this year.
Speaker 1: The Jets certainly didn't figure that out. No, they did not.
Speaker 1: Waller is just a beast. Todd, I'm sorry, God wishing
Speaker 1: of everybody from Pittsburgh. My first pick is going to
Speaker 1: be if it ain't broke, don't fix it type of thing. Here.
Speaker 1: The Tennessee Titans are nine and two to the over
Speaker 1: this year nine overs and two unders. The first under
Speaker 1: was the first game of the year and since then
Speaker 1: eight overs. Since then, every game pretty much goes over.
Speaker 1: The Bears game didn't go over, but the Bears don't
Speaker 1: really have an offense. Other than that, every single game
Speaker 1: goes over. With the Tennessee Titans now Jacksonville the last
Speaker 1: couple of weeks has shown a propensity to be able
Speaker 1: to move the ball a little bit. So maybe you know,
Speaker 1: Glennon or whoever they've got starting a quarterback is you know,
Speaker 1: passable and he could probably get some points against Tennessee.
Speaker 1: We know Tennessee is going to score like crazy because
Speaker 1: every week that's what happens. So how can you go
Speaker 1: under in this game? The team's played the like second
Speaker 1: week of the season, sixty three points I believe was
Speaker 1: the final. It's only over fifty three, um, I mean,
Speaker 1: Tennessee is just an over monster of a team. They
Speaker 1: can't stop anybody, and you can't stop them. So as
Speaker 1: long as Jacksonville can get you twenty four points, boom,
Speaker 1: you're in without without even a sniff. So give me
Speaker 1: over fifty three in Tennessee against the Jacksonville Jaguars, please.
Speaker 1: And Aaron Shots from Football Outsiders on a numbers game
Speaker 1: this morning and uh the quarter pole appearance on the
Speaker 1: show and asked him who were the teams that they're
Speaker 1: most volatile performances from week to week, and he said
Speaker 1: San Francisco, Cleveland and Jacksonville, which had always concerned survivor
Speaker 1: players that when they faced Jacksonville and the two teams
Speaker 1: that he said were the most consistent from week to week.
Speaker 1: And he guesses, tell me if they're top tier middle
Speaker 1: tier teams. One is top tier and the other is
Speaker 1: middle the middle to bottom. So it's not the one
Speaker 1: I was thinking. Kansas City is the top tier team
Speaker 1: in the Chicago Bears really just every week, saying I
Speaker 1: couldn't say the Washington football team. They're pretty consistent. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: Aaron Shots, I make him minus one eighty to be
Speaker 1: a megapodcast before the season. It's over. Okay, what do
Speaker 1: you know that I don't um? Alright, So here's uh
Speaker 1: so I already gave you my number two picks. So
Speaker 1: this is my number one pick and this was your
Speaker 1: number two pick. That is correct my number and I
Speaker 1: don't know. The order doesn't really matter, right, doesn't not
Speaker 1: at all, not at all, So just make this my
Speaker 1: number two pick. And this falls under the category of
Speaker 1: bets you have to make or you have to be
Speaker 1: willing to lose tip of the cap if the Philadelphia
Speaker 1: Eagles can beat me. So I'm taking the New Orleans Saints.
Speaker 1: It's it was six and a half this morning. Now
Speaker 1: it's back to seven. I see tons of seven place.
Speaker 1: I think it's seven, but it was six and a
Speaker 1: half earlier, So so let's say minus seven reduced shoes. Obviously,
Speaker 1: I don't like it as much at seven as I
Speaker 1: did at six and a half. But Jalen Hurts was
Speaker 1: was wonderful filling in for Carson wentz Uh nice performance,
Speaker 1: nice spark, But this is his first game as a starter,
Speaker 1: and this New Orleans defense is four reels. And I
Speaker 1: just don't understand the money coming I didn't understand the
Speaker 1: money coming in on the Patriots, not I don't understand
Speaker 1: the money coming in on the Eagles. I must be
Speaker 1: missing something. Um. I'm not a huge tastom Hill guy,
Speaker 1: so I will say that. Um. But it's just again,
Speaker 1: it's this. It's if a rookie quarterback playing in his
Speaker 1: very first start can come in and cover that number
Speaker 1: against that good of a defense. Um tip of the cap.
Speaker 1: I'm taking New Orleans. I'm not thinking about it too hard.
Speaker 1: New Orleans minus seven is my second pick. Why isn't
Speaker 1: Sean Payton getting more credited or love for Coach of
Speaker 1: the Year He should I said, I said it a
Speaker 1: month ago. What he's doing with this team, what he's
Speaker 1: doing using multiple quarterbacks, another team consistent weekend and week
Speaker 1: out with what they've done. I mean, Flores has probably
Speaker 1: you know your leader, but to have Peyton still at
Speaker 1: seven to one, it doesn't make sense to me. Think
Speaker 1: about has there ever been a year where there have
Speaker 1: been so many poor coaching performances in so many great ones?
Speaker 1: And it's it's reflective of the what I call the
Speaker 1: ever widening chasm of the haves and have nots in
Speaker 1: the NFL. But O'Brien, quinn and Patricia already gone, Lynn,
Speaker 1: Naggie Gaze, Taylor Morone. Maybe I'm forgetting somebody you could
Speaker 1: make a case for firing, even though the Chargers saying
Speaker 1: not so fast with Anthony Lynn. But then on the
Speaker 1: other side, Flores read Tomlin Belichick with this group Rivera
Speaker 1: taking cancer treatments at halftime earlier in the year, Judge Stefanski,
Speaker 1: we never say McDermott, we should and Peyton, there's so
Speaker 1: many How about Anthony lynnon comparing this season to Pearl Harbor?
Speaker 1: Where are we going? Didn't he do that on the
Speaker 1: anniversary of Pearl Harbor? The day after? He said it
Speaker 1: was just Pearl Harbor? Did It's sort of like if
Speaker 1: we could come back from Pearl Harbor. You know what
Speaker 1: he's saying. Nobody has died this year. Boy, he's a
Speaker 1: special teams coach. He's three years with the Broncos. That's
Speaker 1: how he broke in as a special teams coach. I
Speaker 1: mentioned that today and the put team is just so bad.
Speaker 1: They get a pot blocked every week now one returned
Speaker 1: for a touchdown, another one returned sixty one yards last week,
Speaker 1: the second. We're special teams through three quarters through the
Speaker 1: in the last thirty five years, according to d b
Speaker 1: O a pretty strong number two. Number two Adams, sorry, Adam,
Speaker 1: our guest. Adam turned off everybody. Well, I think it's
Speaker 1: a double down on the Saints, like you just mentioned,
Speaker 1: and I like it. And to men to sort of
Speaker 1: follow up on Peyton. He did this last year when
Speaker 1: Bridgewater came in, like they didn't miss a beat and
Speaker 1: it was like a much more comparable quarterback style wise debrees.
Speaker 1: But what he's done with Hill this year has been
Speaker 1: really good. But this is now the fourth consecutive week
Speaker 1: with Hill as the starter where there's been money coming
Speaker 1: in against the Saints. And even there was that COVID
Speaker 1: move against the Broncos with the QB situation, but that
Speaker 1: number was going towards Denver as it was, so there
Speaker 1: was just people that are betting against the Saints and Hill.
Speaker 1: And I think the thing that's sort of being missed
Speaker 1: within this is like, obviously, Hill is a less explosive
Speaker 1: quarterback option for the Saints to have, if you can
Speaker 1: even say less explosive relative to Breeze, but he reduces
Speaker 1: the variance of the offensive game plan too. Essentially nothing right.
Speaker 1: It's it's so conservative, it's so safe, but it's very effective.
Speaker 1: And in this handicap against the Eagles, Philadelphia one of
Speaker 1: the better front sevens in football, fifth in rushing success
Speaker 1: rate defense for the season, but the couple of games
Speaker 1: where they've really struggled twice against the Giants and then
Speaker 1: once against the Baltimore Ravens. What both of those teams
Speaker 1: have in common, and it's a mobile quarterback, and specifically
Speaker 1: the Ravens well, but the Packers more so, like not
Speaker 1: as this power, read, running blocking team like the Ravens were,
Speaker 1: but certainly the Packers had success, but it's essentially the
Speaker 1: same scheme that they faced with Baltimore that they just
Speaker 1: couldn't stop. And I would argue that the way the
Speaker 1: season is trending with Hill, the Saints are a little
Speaker 1: bit more effective, get healthier on the offensive line this week,
Speaker 1: healthier on the defensive side as well, And like I
Speaker 1: was looking at this number, so like the market sort
Speaker 1: of established itself early last week with the look Ahead,
Speaker 1: which was six and a half. Obviously smaller limits and
Speaker 1: smaller beds, but like that number was made before this
Speaker 1: Hurts news was really made public, and so a lot
Speaker 1: of that I think was priced in mind with Wentz
Speaker 1: as the starter, and we haven't seen a huge adjustment.
Speaker 1: It's one bad quarterback to relatively an unknown, but um
Speaker 1: around seven that you're not gonna see a huge move.
Speaker 1: But I think like the downside with Hurts as a rookie,
Speaker 1: who's going to make the Eagles more run orientated against
Speaker 1: the Saints defense. It's very good. The downside with Hurts
Speaker 1: is much greater than the downside with a really bad
Speaker 1: game from Wentz, and so I don't think that that's
Speaker 1: necessarily fully priced into this number. And that's why I
Speaker 1: think there's value, certainly at six and a half with
Speaker 1: the Saints this morning, I like it. We should just
Speaker 1: let Adam talk rather than three of us probably on
Speaker 1: so number two is is my number two as well
Speaker 1: on the Saints. I like it Adam when we're on
Speaker 1: the same side here, Mike Palm, everybody. I'm gonna take
Speaker 1: Todd's favorite team, the Atlanta Falcons, against Brother Lynn's pathetic Chargers.
Speaker 1: That's my number three, all right. I just I just
Speaker 1: wanted to point out I can't pack the Chargers here,
Speaker 1: and I think Todd is right. The Falcons defense is improving.
Speaker 1: They were competitive in this game with the Saints. Now
Speaker 1: the missfield goal, I thought they could have opened the
Speaker 1: game up the Saints and they didn't, and they let
Speaker 1: Atlanta hang around there. But look at I'll take I'll
Speaker 1: take Matt Ryan and that offense and an improving defense
Speaker 1: and the special teams. That's not going to kill you.
Speaker 1: Against the Chargers team where the players just have to
Speaker 1: be shaking their heads, asked and where are we at?
Speaker 1: How are we any good? That we continued that we
Speaker 1: lost forty five to nothing in the game. We were
Speaker 1: a point and a half favorite at home. There could
Speaker 1: be a checkout factor. That's what I'm thinking, I really am.
Speaker 1: So that's my number two. Did you see boss quote? Oh?
Speaker 1: I think what reminds us again? What it was? Bosa
Speaker 1: came out and he said, well, I'm going to be
Speaker 1: playing hard this We we can, but I'm not sure
Speaker 1: anyone else is. I didn't hear that. That's that's amazing
Speaker 1: to come out and say that. Uh. And I can't
Speaker 1: speak for the guy next to me, but I am wow. Um,
Speaker 1: that was that one nipped? Another one for my for
Speaker 1: my number three, uh dot number two. My number two
Speaker 1: is going to be done in the voice of a
Speaker 1: concerned We are in a lot of trouble here people.
Speaker 1: I know people think eleven and oh, we can't be
Speaker 1: beating at But let me tell you. If Pittsburgh Stollars
Speaker 1: have some problems in running a football, we can't run
Speaker 1: the football from don Kown East Liberty, We're gonna have
Speaker 1: a big problem. If we think we're gonna go up
Speaker 1: against the Kansas City Chiefs or even the Buffalo Bills
Speaker 1: this week and think we're just gonna get W after
Speaker 1: W after w we can't do it just throwing the ball. Look,
Speaker 1: I love Big Ben, He's fucking fantastic. But here's the deal.
Speaker 1: We can't run the football. And if you can't run
Speaker 1: the football, the other team can key on what you're doing.
Speaker 1: And that's what the Washington Redskins did and the Worhington
Speaker 1: football team did do us and gave us no opportunities
Speaker 1: to win a football game we had no business losing.
Speaker 1: So I'm really concerned about my Pittsburgh Stellers and I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go against them because I figure, look if I
Speaker 1: go against them, at least I make some money. If
Speaker 1: they lose the ball game, I don't feel that bad,
Speaker 1: and then I can go have a big milk with
Speaker 1: my family. So here's the deal. I'm taking the Bills,
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills against the Pittsburgh Stellers, and I'm gonna
Speaker 1: lay the minus two and a half. I think that
Speaker 1: Josh Allen guy is gonna give us all kinds of
Speaker 1: trouble all kinds of trouble that Josh Allen and uh,
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't think we can run the football.
Speaker 1: Bottom line is we're not that great. What's that? What's
Speaker 1: that thing you do a bottom line? I don't get
Speaker 1: that part. That's part of the Pittsburgh stiller's voice. And
Speaker 1: Myron Cope used to do that. If you remember him,
Speaker 1: he's the one he used to tell you, Jerome Bus
Speaker 1: Battis is running down the field, you can't stop stop Bus.
Speaker 1: That was an excellent, excellent you can only do that
Speaker 1: growing up where you did, that's outstanding. Let me ask
Speaker 1: you a question. Big Ben literally has it in his nickname,
Speaker 1: the word big. Does he not sneak anymore either? On
Speaker 1: fourth and one with just under five minutes left in
Speaker 1: a tie game, what is that? Adam? I always talk
Speaker 1: about this with Philip Rivers. Ben doesn't do it either.
Speaker 1: Now while on the play call and electing to go
Speaker 1: where they did with that pass was just bizarre. But
Speaker 1: it just picking up five yards for the Steelers passing
Speaker 1: and just seems so strenuous, like it's just it's so simplistic,
Speaker 1: an elementary and the rubs that they're running, it's just
Speaker 1: it's tough to watch. I saw your tweet. Non creative.
Speaker 1: That's the exact word to use. It's completely non creative.
Speaker 1: I don't get it. I don't I don't know the
Speaker 1: deal with big but I said that the Lombardi Lombardi said,
Speaker 1: Gilly doesn't want to get hurt. I'm like, at a
Speaker 1: tie game with less than five minutes to get to
Speaker 1: it once. But how are you going to get hurt
Speaker 1: on it? On a quarterback keeper? What's so dangerous about
Speaker 1: a quarterback keeper? You take the ball, you lunge forward.
Speaker 1: I mean, unless the guys are gonna like grab your
Speaker 1: balls or something, how are you going to get into it?
Speaker 1: I mean Patrick Mahomes got hurt doing it? Right. So
Speaker 1: there is that bitty itty bitty Breeze sticks the ball
Speaker 1: like this, He takes any just sticks it over. What
Speaker 1: Breeze does that way? Breeze the smallest dude out there, right,
Speaker 1: and he does that way? Why can't big men do that? Well?
Speaker 1: First of all, I got I got one other problem.
Speaker 1: You can't win in the NFL throwing every single down.
Speaker 1: You have to be able to run a little bit.
Speaker 1: Don't you just even a little taste of the run.
Speaker 1: To give the other team maybe the idea that there's
Speaker 1: gonna be something else besides just the seven yard pass.
Speaker 1: Did you do every play? It's not gonna work. Listen,
Speaker 1: I agree with you, Todd. Look at how Kansas City
Speaker 1: missed Hilaire Sunday night. That was definitely took some dynosaism
Speaker 1: away from their offense in that game and made them
Speaker 1: very vulnerable at home against against the Broncos. Yeah. I'm
Speaker 1: not one of these guys that preaches, oh, you have
Speaker 1: to have balance and you have to do this. Look,
Speaker 1: we've seen Bill Belichick whin running the ball a hundred
Speaker 1: times in a row and throwing the ball hundred times
Speaker 1: in a row. I have no problem if it's done strategically,
Speaker 1: but if it's done because because we cannot run the ball,
Speaker 1: which the Washington football team figured out very quickly, you're
Speaker 1: going to have a problem. And look the Steelers, Let's
Speaker 1: be honest. The Steelers had a bunch of really close
Speaker 1: calls early in the year against Denver with Driscoll in there.
Speaker 1: Against Houston. I mean, they're not really an eleven and
Speaker 1: O football teach you all. You all made fun of
Speaker 1: me when I said Kansas City will be minus five
Speaker 1: if they come to Pittsburgh in the a f C
Speaker 1: Championship Game. Everyone's like, Oh, that's ridiculous. No, wait, they
Speaker 1: could easily. We both three Chris from Las Vegas, a
Speaker 1: man named Michael Palm who slightly wrote Tuned, and another
Speaker 1: man named Gilly Ice all said I was a lunatic
Speaker 1: for saying that Kansas City couldst not have it. No,
Speaker 1: but he said that we agreed with you. We didn't
Speaker 1: agree with him. We didn't agree with I didn't agree
Speaker 1: with Chris is going down to the bet with the
Speaker 1: book right now to bet against that idea. That's exactly
Speaker 1: there was right, Well done to checkmates. Yeah, can we
Speaker 1: stop with this star? Was the star of Action? That's
Speaker 1: disrespectful to crack Wins. Todd was featured in Action. Okay,
Speaker 1: Todd was one of the four major players of Action.
Speaker 1: They plucked him out of a room of people at
Speaker 1: the South Points. What's interesting is they picked me to
Speaker 1: be on the Showtime show when I wasn't even planned
Speaker 1: to be on because I'm not really that entertaining. As
Speaker 1: most media companies in the sports gambling business, No, Todd,
Speaker 1: you always have a home right here on the megapod
Speaker 1: because I know talent and I see it and I'm
Speaker 1: looking at talent. Damn it, you might be the best
Speaker 1: scout of talent since Bill ad Let's not get crazy. Okay,
Speaker 1: now we're getting two inside jokey and everyone's gonna complain
Speaker 1: because Mikey and Gil do too too many inside jokes.
Speaker 1: I I that people do people of the inside jokes. Yeah, No,
Speaker 1: it's annoying. It's annoying. We have inside jokes and no
Speaker 1: one gets it. That's not fun. It's not fun. There's
Speaker 1: no inside jokes. That was more fun when I make
Speaker 1: really obvious jokes or you sing. Yes, we haven't. We
Speaker 1: haven't gotten to the singing portion of the show yet.
Speaker 1: Where are we? Number three from Adam? Number two? I'm sorry, Todd.
Speaker 1: That was my pick minus two and a half. Because
Speaker 1: I was listening for the accident. I had no idea
Speaker 1: what the pick was, Alright, Adam was the Bills? Was
Speaker 1: the Bills minus two and a half because the Steelers
Speaker 1: are very concerning to me, and uh, I think the
Speaker 1: Bills can beat the Steelers minus two and a half.
Speaker 1: Anthony McFarland had no idea. That was a back shoulder
Speaker 1: throw by the way did you have do you have
Speaker 1: last thing about this? Did you have problems getting it?
Speaker 1: I was so frustrated that I could not get this
Speaker 1: game on the local Fox affiliate TMZ showed it. I
Speaker 1: have Direct TV, and it did. I couldn't get it
Speaker 1: on my phone or on my laptop. Really couldn't get it.
Speaker 1: You have the package, yeah, and but but apparently it
Speaker 1: was NFL Sunday ticket to everybody. I couldn't get it. No,
Speaker 1: I didn't hear that, so I had to drive to
Speaker 1: the South Point. I didn't get it because I have cocks.
Speaker 1: I do too, but I thought it was going to
Speaker 1: be on Fox five, so I didn't make an effort
Speaker 1: to be somewhere to watch it right the whole Well,
Speaker 1: that was the problem. They didn't communicate that only the
Speaker 1: country was getting The phone was blowing up at two
Speaker 1: oh three with people saying, where the hell is this game?
Speaker 1: I tweeted, I said, anybody else infuriated anyway? Adam number three, sir,
Speaker 1: So I haven't bet it yet and so we don't
Speaker 1: have to count it for the pot. But like six
Speaker 1: and a half that I think turns into seven for
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers is way too high. Against the Vikings, and
Speaker 1: so like I'm looking at that one a lot closer
Speaker 1: to three and a half. There's other ratings that will
Speaker 1: make that a lot closer, Like this is this is
Speaker 1: Buck's territory when they were favorite against the Panthers. This
Speaker 1: was Bucks with the price they were against the Broncos
Speaker 1: like that. I think that this is out of line.
Speaker 1: And I think the Vikings going to overtime and playing
Speaker 1: essentially a full extra ten minutes against the Jags looking
Speaker 1: as bad as they did, um is is sort of
Speaker 1: fueling this move that's going up a little bit. But
Speaker 1: I'm waiting for this one to get the seven. I'll
Speaker 1: bet it when it gets there. If I have to
Speaker 1: buy it because it's not gonna move, I'm going to
Speaker 1: do that as well. But I think the Vikings getting
Speaker 1: points here um certainly worth a look. I think it's
Speaker 1: a terrific game for Zimmer and now he sets up
Speaker 1: like Brady under pressure. It's been a decline the last
Speaker 1: three years. It's very noticeable this year. Um And when
Speaker 1: you're facing a guy like Zimmer who's just so creative
Speaker 1: and and the game plans he puts together, how he
Speaker 1: disguises his blitz is. I think it's just a perfect
Speaker 1: opportunity to him for just to have a sort of
Speaker 1: his best game plan of the year and sort of
Speaker 1: an all in spot for the Vikings. Do you want
Speaker 1: to attribute what they sort of made everyone sweat who
Speaker 1: had them and survivor last year last week potentially sort
Speaker 1: of a look ahead spot for them in this in
Speaker 1: this matchup. So for me, I think that this number
Speaker 1: is way out of line. I'm happy to wait it
Speaker 1: out and see if it gets the seven. But if
Speaker 1: I have to buy it, I'll certainly buy the six
Speaker 1: and a half of the seven two out of three
Speaker 1: remaining survivor entries that had to sweat out Minnesota UH
Speaker 1: and the h and the Jaguars last week. Minnesota, really
Speaker 1: Dan Bailey missed two extraployers. He missed a field goal.
Speaker 1: That first Jacksonville touchdown literally bounced off the back of
Speaker 1: a Vikings defender. There was a pick six, like the
Speaker 1: Vikings should have won that going away. Um. Just to
Speaker 1: add to that, UM, Mikey, since I've already done three,
Speaker 1: because I'm on your Atlanta Falcons is number three? What's
Speaker 1: your number three? I'm gonna play over Monday night in
Speaker 1: the Ravens Browns Game seven. I'm saying, over that's fine,
Speaker 1: it's okay, okay, look at that. But you know, I
Speaker 1: think Mayfield's improving. I think they move them around. They
Speaker 1: can run the ball. Think about Baltimore is that their
Speaker 1: running game is dynamic, right, and they have these burst
Speaker 1: runs they don't take for a team that's a predominant
Speaker 1: running team. They don't have seventeen play drives, right, they
Speaker 1: have eight play drives and nine play so they don't
Speaker 1: choose the clock like a tradition running team would. Uh.
Speaker 1: And also interesting, when Jackson throws the ball, there's a
Speaker 1: lot of incompletion, so the clock stops. Right. There's the
Speaker 1: very few short games for that team. They either hit
Speaker 1: they hit a play action play that goes for twenty.
Speaker 1: They bust a run for seventeen, so they moved the
Speaker 1: ball quickly. The Browns can run the football, which sets
Speaker 1: up Baker. Look, Tennessee last week said we're gonna pack
Speaker 1: everybody in the box that make Baker beat us, And
Speaker 1: that's what he did. I mean, they were guys were
Speaker 1: running wide open because they had everybody up front. So
Speaker 1: there's a low total for the NFL forty seven relatively
Speaker 1: this year, and so I'm over they well thought out pick.
Speaker 1: I wish I had thought of that well, thank you,
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson was so inaccurate the other day. It's harm
Speaker 1: I mean not even close. Yeah, Like at forty seven
Speaker 1: over from Mikey Baltimore in Cleveland, dot. Um from my
Speaker 1: last pick, I am going to go with the under
Speaker 1: in the Washington football team against the forty Niners. Um.
Speaker 1: I the under I see as forty three? Is that
Speaker 1: what is correct? For three? I'm gonna go under. And
Speaker 1: the reason I'm gonna go under is I think Nick
Speaker 1: Mullins is not an NFL starting quarterback. Uh So, I'm
Speaker 1: not really too concerned about the Redskins scoring a lot
Speaker 1: against a Washington defense, by the way, quietly is a
Speaker 1: very good defense. Their fourth in the league in yards
Speaker 1: per play. The Washington defense. Now, granted, the Steelers can't
Speaker 1: run the ball, but the Steelers do move the ball
Speaker 1: against most teams, and the Redskins were really giving them
Speaker 1: a lot of trouble. The Washington football team, I think
Speaker 1: is a very good defensive football team. I think they're
Speaker 1: in the top ten, I really do. It shouldn't be
Speaker 1: quiet because they've had so many high draft picks on defense, right,
Speaker 1: Chase Young and Darn Payne and Montez Sweat. Jonathan Ellen
Speaker 1: wasn't even on the field against the Steelers. Karrogan is
Speaker 1: still an old veteran top pick. I mean, they are
Speaker 1: littered with top defensive draft choices. It would better be
Speaker 1: good by this point. Well, I just think it's a
Speaker 1: pretty darn good defense, and I think they're gonna be
Speaker 1: able to handle Nick Mullins, who I does not you know,
Speaker 1: impress me? Uh. For San Francisco. On the other hand,
Speaker 1: San Francisco's positives on their side of the ball is
Speaker 1: defense as well. And it's not like Alex Smith to
Speaker 1: mckissic is gonna work as well as it did against
Speaker 1: the Steelers late in the game when they just saw, oh,
Speaker 1: here's the idea, let's just throw Tomkissic for six yards
Speaker 1: every single play. So uh, I have a feeling that
Speaker 1: the smart coaching staff for the Niners will cook up
Speaker 1: some defensive goo losh from Mr Alex Smith, and it's
Speaker 1: probably gonna be maybe seventeen points from him, twenty points
Speaker 1: from one of the other teams we're looking at. I
Speaker 1: I just like under forty three in this. I think
Speaker 1: both team strengths are on defense, and while forty three
Speaker 1: is a low number in the National Football League nowadays,
Speaker 1: I could totally see this as both coaches just being
Speaker 1: super conservative. Let's just play, you know, ground and pound,
Speaker 1: and let's go under forty three. That's the other thing
Speaker 1: thought about your Stiller's concern. The Skins did that with
Speaker 1: Washington Football team did that with Antonio Gibson getting turf
Speaker 1: toe with the first quarter, never came back and Terry
Speaker 1: McLaurin two catches for fourteen yards. He's by far their
Speaker 1: biggest playmaker, and Washington still beat them down fourteen. They
Speaker 1: had to kiss it and no one could guard the kissing.
Speaker 1: For some reason, stealers didn't realize that if you run
Speaker 1: the exact same play over and over and over and
Speaker 1: it gets eight in nine yards every single play, that's
Speaker 1: probably not gonna win you a football game. It's weird
Speaker 1: being a Washington football team fan because the quarterback of
Speaker 1: the future is not on that roster, but there with
Speaker 1: Alex Smith. And I can't believe I'm saying this because
Speaker 1: I was only please don't get back on the field.
Speaker 1: I'm terrified for you that, like he's clearly the best
Speaker 1: quarterback that they could have had. But Gil Alex Smith
Speaker 1: was a decent Let's call him a slightly above average
Speaker 1: quarterback when he was on Kansas City. Maybe I think
Speaker 1: he was better than that. Okay, so I was being conservative.
Speaker 1: Let's call him solidly above average quarterback when he was
Speaker 1: on Kansas City. Solidly he got Kapper nicked and he
Speaker 1: got Mahomes, right. I mean, that's that's his career, right. So,
Speaker 1: but what I'm saying is, why are we so surprised
Speaker 1: that Alex Smith is No, We're not surprised. I just
Speaker 1: didn't want the guy to get out on the field
Speaker 1: because I was terrified for him. We're not surprised. But
Speaker 1: I guess what I'm saying is this is the best
Speaker 1: version of Washington that you may get until they find
Speaker 1: a guy, you know, whether in this draft or otherwise.
Speaker 1: I don't know what my point was. I thought he
Speaker 1: was good at Utah. He was the number one pick
Speaker 1: in the draft, for goodness, very good at Utah. Remember
Speaker 1: he was he was the guy that was picked first,
Speaker 1: while Aaron Rodgers just sat there for twenty some picks
Speaker 1: and then sat there for another few years in Green Bay.
Speaker 1: True Dad. Alright, teaser, guys, our favorite two leg six
Speaker 1: point teaser of the week. You're allowed to use sides
Speaker 1: or totals. Mr Churnoff, Well, I think I'm always sort
Speaker 1: of opposed to teasing down big the big numbers with
Speaker 1: big totals, But I think I absolutely have to bring
Speaker 1: Green Bay down below the six to four and the three,
Speaker 1: and then I think naturally pair that with um the
Speaker 1: Saints if they're at seven, bringing them down to one
Speaker 1: as well. So I would go, I would go Green
Speaker 1: Bay and the Saints. He's down, packers, chiefs, packers chiefs. Okay, Todd,
Speaker 1: hang on stenographizing here. So we got minus one and
Speaker 1: a half for Green Bay for Mike and Kansas City.
Speaker 1: Where's Kansas City again? All Right, I'll just I'll just
Speaker 1: do I'm just gonna do the round robbin with these guys.
Speaker 1: New Orleans. Kansas City is actually mine, Okay, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go with your Okay, New Orleans for gil New Orleans
Speaker 1: minus one in Kansas City minus one and a half, right, correct,
Speaker 1: Well it kind of looks kind of minus oneing now,
Speaker 1: but yeah, minus one and a half. Okay, So I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go with um Green Bay minus one and a
Speaker 1: half as well, and um, just so that we're not
Speaker 1: all doing exactly the Saints be authentic, dude, what it
Speaker 1: was gonna be? Don't just makes all up? Well, I
Speaker 1: I didn't really do a good job with my teaser
Speaker 1: preparation today. It wasn't really positive. Who I wanted to
Speaker 1: get with the teaser question every week anyway, I just
Speaker 1: to do something different this week. I want to go
Speaker 1: with the Browns plus eight. How about that Brown's plus eight? Yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: if Baltimore wins, that game looks like a five and
Speaker 1: oh very well possible five and oh finish for Baltimore
Speaker 1: a f C price is awfully I right now, Yeah,
Speaker 1: what is it? Eighteen to one? What is it? Before
Speaker 1: the Dallas game? It was eighteen. It's come down right
Speaker 1: around fourteen to one now. But like you consider, if
Speaker 1: they if they get through Cleveland, like you said, that's
Speaker 1: probably they're running the table and finishing with eleven wins.
Speaker 1: They probably get the five seed. And then outside of
Speaker 1: k C, who are they more than a three point
Speaker 1: underdog at most within the a f C. I don't
Speaker 1: think anyone so Like from a Hedge perspective, if you
Speaker 1: want to go that way. You're probably working back against
Speaker 1: that once they get into playoffs, never really laying more
Speaker 1: than one minus one forty against. That's a that's a
Speaker 1: big number. I gotta get it before this game though,
Speaker 1: before the clean because that's where the EU. But I
Speaker 1: don't think Baltimore. I mean, I understand from a price perspective,
Speaker 1: I agree with Adam, but from a are they the
Speaker 1: same Ravens. They're not the same Ravens. People have figured
Speaker 1: out Lamar Jackson. No no, no, no, no, no, Todd,
Speaker 1: I'm sorry to interrupt, Okay, but they figured out Greg Roman.
Speaker 1: Greg Roman is a one hinted wonder. He had Kaepernick
Speaker 1: great for a year, second year, figured him out, Lamar
Speaker 1: Jackson great for a year, second year, figured him out.
Speaker 1: Doesn't know how to run the four. He's not creative enough.
Speaker 1: They should hire Kubiak. Kubiak would be a much better
Speaker 1: coordinator for the Ravens. I stand corrected by Michael Palm.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to argue with him about who is
Speaker 1: the person that we should be saying they figured out.
Speaker 1: But if you want to stay it's Greg Roman. That's
Speaker 1: mine to the bottom line is Baltimore is not the
Speaker 1: same football ball team on offense. Regardless of who they
Speaker 1: figured out, they figured out something and it's just not
Speaker 1: the same team. The name Lamar Jackson has taken enough
Speaker 1: guff for one week. It doesn't need to be to
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson's. But I will say this about Baltimore and
Speaker 1: agree or disagree that they are I mean, I guess
Speaker 1: you could say this about a lot of teams in
Speaker 1: the history of the NFL, but they feel to me
Speaker 1: to be the poster child of this. If they get ahead,
Speaker 1: they are so much more dangerous than when they fall behind,
Speaker 1: Like there's a It just feels like game script for
Speaker 1: them is everything, because if they fall behind and they
Speaker 1: have to throw the football, you're like, they're they're I
Speaker 1: feel great being on the other side. If they get ahead,
Speaker 1: let's just say a f C championship game, and they
Speaker 1: get ahead of the Chiefs, Hey you got a game,
Speaker 1: you know, in a in a way that you might
Speaker 1: not otherwise with some other team. I don't overstate it,
Speaker 1: but that's how it feels to me. Does that make
Speaker 1: any sense for the It's like the worst opponent for
Speaker 1: the Chiefs to face. Gommatically two if they fall behind
Speaker 1: as well, right, that's right. They're great from ahead. By
Speaker 1: the way, you get aside from Kansas City. You can
Speaker 1: throw all the rest of the playoff teams in the
Speaker 1: a f C in one big jumble, and who knows
Speaker 1: who's gonna win any game Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Indianapolis versus Tennessee,
Speaker 1: Tennessee against the Browns can Miami. Maybe Miami's a slightly
Speaker 1: below the other ones, But the rest of them, if
Speaker 1: you just throw them all in a big bunch, who
Speaker 1: who the hell knows who's gonna be the right team.
Speaker 1: The a f C playoffs, though, seven deep is gonna
Speaker 1: be awesome because those are seven teams. Yeah, if the
Speaker 1: Raiders don't get in there, for instance, But like the NFC,
Speaker 1: there's gonna be one or two or even three crap
Speaker 1: teams in there for sure, including the NFC East winner.
Speaker 1: Although I don't know if you want to play Washington now,
Speaker 1: which is crazy to say, I don't want to play
Speaker 1: that deep. Well, do you play with mckissic or without mckissic,
Speaker 1: because you can't stop him the MS By the way,
Speaker 1: it's a platoon between mckissic and Barber as Bryce sits
Speaker 1: on the sidelines like let me. I want to play.
Speaker 1: No one can stop in the kissing. He's he's like
Speaker 1: Michael Jordan. You can only hope to contain him. Um, okay,
Speaker 1: what was your so? What was your teaser in the end? Cleveland?
Speaker 1: And who was Green Bay? Minus one and a half
Speaker 1: and I'm concerned about it because everyone likes it and
Speaker 1: Cleveland plus eight? Okay, so Survivor. Before we get to
Speaker 1: the final two questions, eighty nine entries left, eight two
Speaker 1: of whom have Seattle available. Seattle is the biggest favorite
Speaker 1: on the board, close to a two touchdown favorite against
Speaker 1: the Jets. This is uh. I believe this is the
Speaker 1: last week where the quote unquote obvious pick is still
Speaker 1: available to most. After this week it will get Nutso.
Speaker 1: But this week the question becomes, do you just take
Speaker 1: the Seahawks and say, you know what, let's just forget
Speaker 1: about this week, will resume play next week? Or do
Speaker 1: you say to yourself because as I've said many times,
Speaker 1: Survivor is a misnamed game. By the way, you you
Speaker 1: quoted a name one of our named one of the
Speaker 1: visa hosts. Because I know you're not allowed to say
Speaker 1: my name apparently on that show. But you said uh,
Speaker 1: I said, it's a misname game, right, it should be
Speaker 1: called winner, not survivor. Um, Gil, why isn't Mike allowed
Speaker 1: to say your name? Because I didn't know that he wasn't.
Speaker 1: But the other day he's on there and he's like
Speaker 1: another host on this network, said one of our hosts.
Speaker 1: I couldn't say my name that the contest don't know
Speaker 1: what it is. But I don't, Mike, why aren't you
Speaker 1: allowed to say his name? Gil is making an assumption. Um,
Speaker 1: it might be wrong, it might be right, to be right.
Speaker 1: I don't know, but I don't say other host names.
Speaker 1: You know what I mean? I don't know. I don't
Speaker 1: bring up Donna, Danny Burke on their show. Wait this,
Speaker 1: this is across the board post. You don't say any
Speaker 1: host name. It has nothing to do with I don't
Speaker 1: know if they know there are any other hosts. That's true.
Speaker 1: That's a good point. They may not be aware. They
Speaker 1: may not be aware. You say Lombardi's name, don't you? Yes,
Speaker 1: he does, I do, but he's on their show every week.
Speaker 1: Is a spinster. I'm a spinster. A spinster, Mikey. I'm
Speaker 1: not judging you in any way. I'm just trying to
Speaker 1: understand whose name you're allowed to say and whose name
Speaker 1: you're not allowed. That's all I'm not allowed to say
Speaker 1: Todd W on one of the weekend shows that I
Speaker 1: was chance received that please do not say Todd W's
Speaker 1: name had finishing the thought. So the question becomes, do
Speaker 1: you just take Seattle and act like you know what
Speaker 1: will resume real survivor play next week? Or do you
Speaker 1: play to win? And first of all, if you have
Speaker 1: two entries, maybe you definitely do this. But if you
Speaker 1: have one entry, do you have the cajones the onions
Speaker 1: to play another team and hope for a Seattle Seahawks calamity,
Speaker 1: at which point you will rise to the mountain test?
Speaker 1: You have to assess your belief in the Jets ability
Speaker 1: to win that game. Yes, that that's what it comes
Speaker 1: down to. Here's the question, let's do another over under
Speaker 1: how many of the two use Seattle. Well, that's kind
Speaker 1: of the question asking well, what do you think I
Speaker 1: will do? My numbers? My number is seventy two and
Speaker 1: a half. I said, seventy five was the first number
Speaker 1: that came into my head. Not everyone will do it.
Speaker 1: Not ever, the five entries with two the five guys
Speaker 1: with two, Well, there's an argument, did you want to
Speaker 1: move both of them on because you have a big
Speaker 1: advantage for sure, or you take the shot. But I'm
Speaker 1: just glad that this is the last week where that's
Speaker 1: the chimp. Then there will be the picks are going
Speaker 1: to be scattered the last three weeks. Absolutely, Um, did
Speaker 1: you like last thing? Did you like like my discussion?
Speaker 1: I don't know if you're aware of until I sent
Speaker 1: it to you, but Las Vegas, Chris and I had
Speaker 1: this ongoing debate and there's no right answer. What would
Speaker 1: you rather have right now? A circuit survivor entry that
Speaker 1: is still alive one of the last eighty nine, or
Speaker 1: be in contention in circummillions? Keep in mind, as you
Speaker 1: very well know, fifty places get cash and millions and
Speaker 1: survive or is chop or zero? But to me, it's
Speaker 1: not even close. For you, it's it's survivor. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's the whole thing, the whole too, it's the whole
Speaker 1: experience you've had, right gil, and to get to and
Speaker 1: to get to this point, and let's face it, and
Speaker 1: I brought it up, uh you know, or or Todd
Speaker 1: brought it up. This picking five games against the number
Speaker 1: of Oh god, is this hard? I mean, this is
Speaker 1: really it's hard enough to find two games each week
Speaker 1: or three that we try to do. So, I mean,
Speaker 1: even if I was in like tenth place, I would
Speaker 1: not feel any sort of confidence that I could maintain
Speaker 1: and not slip way down to only getting three thousand back?
Speaker 1: Or can I get a commitment from you? You may
Speaker 1: have already promised this is somebody else? Can I get
Speaker 1: a commitment from you that I get to interview the
Speaker 1: person who finishes last in millions first? Sure? Because you
Speaker 1: should get somebody first. I mean turn off? Oh yeah, right, yeah,
Speaker 1: like that's the way it flows. Yeah, okay, right? Um?
Speaker 1: That say that is a that person is the most
Speaker 1: amazing person in all of this. How they could overcome
Speaker 1: even quarterlies to suck so consistently And you can't try
Speaker 1: to suck? Can you know? They have to? These people
Speaker 1: that have been at the bottom have been there since
Speaker 1: like week four and five. It's the same twenty people.
Speaker 1: But how can you, like, if you're if you're that
Speaker 1: good at sucking, why didn't you just try to win
Speaker 1: the thing? True? But you you started out bad for
Speaker 1: three weeks and then you said let's just go against
Speaker 1: it was that. But the mirror is the guidance in
Speaker 1: first is forty five and fifteen, and the three way
Speaker 1: tie for last is fifteen and forty five. How many
Speaker 1: weeks is it, sorry, and twenty and on the opposite
Speaker 1: side it's twenty and forty five. But that's just that's
Speaker 1: just that's just a distribution issue. I always gonna be Pete.
Speaker 1: I agree with you, Todd, I agree to costco issue. No,
Speaker 1: you have to. You're always going If you have a
Speaker 1: pool of people, there's gonna be people like, for instance,
Speaker 1: in my example of the bad beats, I am in
Speaker 1: the fifth standard deviation for bad beats, and there's somebody
Speaker 1: else who's in the fifth standard deviation for good beats.
Speaker 1: And that is always going to be the scenario. If
Speaker 1: you put a blanket over a large group of anything,
Speaker 1: there's always gonna be people on one side of the
Speaker 1: standard beach and people on the other side. So those
Speaker 1: people soon like five of those people will go five
Speaker 1: and oh. This week, you know somebody will go five.
Speaker 1: And you can't guarantee that you'll stay bad, is what
Speaker 1: I'm saying. People went five and oh. But you see,
Speaker 1: if people went oh in five. But what I'm saying
Speaker 1: is the people, if you just take the people are
Speaker 1: in the worst, they'll probably be close to from here
Speaker 1: on out. That's all I'm trying to say. I agree,
Speaker 1: I agree. These people don't have a special talent at sucking.
Speaker 1: It's amazing that they were able to suck as well
Speaker 1: as they have through through Quarterly's right, because if you're middling,
Speaker 1: every time a quarterly comes up, you're like, hey, I
Speaker 1: can I'm back to zero and zero. But they have
Speaker 1: managed somehow too over come good, you know, positive variants.
Speaker 1: It's just like in a in a basketball game, if
Speaker 1: a team makes six three pointers in a row, you
Speaker 1: know they're going the point spread is gonna go up,
Speaker 1: but it still has to reflect the rest of the game.
Speaker 1: It doesn't mean they're going to continually hit the next
Speaker 1: six three pointers in a row. By the way, Mikey
Speaker 1: talking about flow, Mike, everything that comes out of easy mouth,
Speaker 1: you're like his mouth piece. Now on, now, come on, now,
Speaker 1: I don't know that that's accurate. It might it. I didn't.
Speaker 1: As long as you're hurling takes some incoming while you're
Speaker 1: at it. I didn't go to a pack twelve school.
Speaker 1: I did not. You have to respect him for for
Speaker 1: what he's accomplished. All right, Final two questions, guys, Final
Speaker 1: two questions, Uh, the large favorite, most likely to lose? Outright,
Speaker 1: we will give you the candidates. The candidates are Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay six and a half point favorites, hosting Minnesota, Tennessee
Speaker 1: seven and a half point favorites at Jacksonville. Not really
Speaker 1: sure how much home field means in any of this anymore,
Speaker 1: Kansas City seven and a half point favorites or seven
Speaker 1: somewhere in that pocket. Don't think it's seven and a
Speaker 1: half consensus produced us at Miami. Uh, Seattle, of course,
Speaker 1: the biggest favorite on the board, thirteen and a half
Speaker 1: point favorites hosting the Jets, Green Bay seven and a
Speaker 1: half point favorites at Detroit. Let's see what else, New Orleans.
Speaker 1: Now it's six and a half as we did this podcast,
Speaker 1: it's down the six and a half point favorites at Philadelphia,
Speaker 1: toggling between the two. Those are your candidates of all
Speaker 1: of those, Adam, and I think you might have already
Speaker 1: hinted at who you would pick here. Who's the most
Speaker 1: likely to lose? Outright? Yeah, I think it's Tampa Bay.
Speaker 1: Part of me sort of went to Tennessee. But it's
Speaker 1: that's I think that the Titans look a lot better
Speaker 1: this week than then did last week. But I think
Speaker 1: it's it's certainly Tampa Bay in this spot. I agree.
Speaker 1: I think they're the most vulnerable and they've shown the
Speaker 1: most regression that I want to see Tennis Tennessee. But
Speaker 1: because I didn't sing yet, I'm gonna go with the
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins. Miami Dolphins. Mess with that team and their
Speaker 1: coach will be your ass. Miami Dolphins. Miami Dolphins, they're
Speaker 1: going to the playoffs this year. Wow, well done crow
Speaker 1: barring it in before the end of the show. Well,
Speaker 1: if you don't crow bar it in, then people get mad.
Speaker 1: They're like, where was the Miami Dolphins song? Most asked
Speaker 1: question of the podcast this year? All about Miami Dolphins
Speaker 1: songs from Todd You're mad at me? No, oh, I'm
Speaker 1: not mad at you. People love to hear him sing
Speaker 1: and they love the new thing will be the Pittsburgh accent.
Speaker 1: I think that's even better than the Dolphins. You're like,
Speaker 1: you're look if youns Ever went down and for Manny
Speaker 1: Brothers and had a giant mill. Let's say it was
Speaker 1: a Sunday you were in a Pirate game or at
Speaker 1: a Penguin game, or maybe even a story game. You
Speaker 1: could have been in any of those kind of games,
Speaker 1: or maybe even Panthers. Youns love the college sports, that's
Speaker 1: all good too. Whatever it iss, are gonna want to
Speaker 1: watch sports in Pittsburgh. That's what we do here in
Speaker 1: pitt We love sports. What is where? What happens is
Speaker 1: that an r that that happens on No, it happens
Speaker 1: on els Like if I said I have you, you
Speaker 1: have to say, properly interesting, what's with the French fries
Speaker 1: in the sandwiches? Who's the genius behind that? That's the
Speaker 1: greatest Pittsburgh thing ever well being is that I wasn't
Speaker 1: a typical unser and that I wasn't allowed to go
Speaker 1: to for Manny Brothers when I was a youngster because
Speaker 1: I was an Orthodox Jew and that and they didn't
Speaker 1: let me go to non Kosher restaurants in that so
Speaker 1: that was a big problem for me. I had to
Speaker 1: go to the goddamn kosher restaurant was just like horrible,
Speaker 1: And I would have loved to have a sandwich with
Speaker 1: some French fries. One of the one of the saddest things.
Speaker 1: Todd not to be labored. This one of the saddest
Speaker 1: things you ever told. Man. You were sort of joking
Speaker 1: about it. Maybe you weren't choking, but I like wanted
Speaker 1: to cry after you told me this. The notion of
Speaker 1: you wearing the full Orthodox thing on a Saturday having
Speaker 1: to look through the store window to watch college football. Oh,
Speaker 1: this no, the saddest that that was the saddest ever.
Speaker 1: I was still talks. I was about seventeen. I was
Speaker 1: going to Yeshiva University at the time. I was about
Speaker 1: seventeen or eighteen years old, and I was still Orthodors
Speaker 1: at the time, and I was a huge college basketball fan.
Speaker 1: And Pitt was playing Georgetown in a huge Saturday afternoon game.
Speaker 1: And so I walked over to like St. Nicholas, which
Speaker 1: it was like a huge Dominican street. And I was terrified,
Speaker 1: of course, because we were taught to be very very
Speaker 1: terrified of the other people. You know, they were going
Speaker 1: to hurt us, you know, God forbid. So I walked
Speaker 1: over to St. Nicholas and I looked through the the
Speaker 1: window of the TV store where they had pit against Georgetown,
Speaker 1: and it was the game where there was a big
Speaker 1: fight at the end of the game. Do you remember
Speaker 1: that game? There was like a giant fight with like
Speaker 1: five seconds, like Jerome Lane and Charles Smith, and we
Speaker 1: had an Austin team pit against Georgetown, and you know
Speaker 1: I had to watch it through the window. I mean
Speaker 1: it was a very very but but the biggest thing
Speaker 1: I'm really most upset about it, and this will be
Speaker 1: in my class action suit against my mother and all
Speaker 1: the other mothers in the community. I am Harry Barry
Speaker 1: upset that I didn't get to be the quarterback at
Speaker 1: alder Dicearts alma mater. And I was better than the
Speaker 1: kid who played quarterback. His name was tator On, a
Speaker 1: great kid. Used to play basketball and football with him
Speaker 1: all the time up in the j c C. I
Speaker 1: was much better than him. He was the starting quarterback
Speaker 1: and I would have been the starting quarterback. Can you
Speaker 1: imagine my mother taking that opportunity away from me. She
Speaker 1: deserves to lose every asset she ever had in a
Speaker 1: class action suit child abuse. Where would you go live
Speaker 1: if she lost her house? That would be a problem,
Speaker 1: but I'm sure you would might be a problem. But
Speaker 1: I'm sure you would take in because you were a
Speaker 1: man of the you know, do you try to help
Speaker 1: the poor and the wounded and anything like that. You know,
Speaker 1: you're a big believer in you know, whatever you do. Alright.
Speaker 1: The final question, because we're over time here seven minutes.
Speaker 1: Final question. If we lived in a bizarro world and
Speaker 1: we had to bet on a side on each and
Speaker 1: every one of the sixteen games. Remember no more buys.
Speaker 1: Everybody's playing starting tonight. But you were allowed one free
Speaker 1: pass one game you had to you could make fifteen.
Speaker 1: You had to make fifteen bets. But there was one
Speaker 1: game on the side where you're like, you know what,
Speaker 1: this is the game I would not touch. Ever? What
Speaker 1: game would that be? Adam h The Dallas Cowboys because
Speaker 1: it looks so tempting to bet against the Bengals with
Speaker 1: Brandon Allen. They just look horrendous offensively, But how can
Speaker 1: you trust Dallas in any game the rest of the season.
Speaker 1: So I, even though that number looks a little short,
Speaker 1: I just I couldn't do it. By the way, my
Speaker 1: pick for the big favorite most likely loser oute out
Speaker 1: right if anyone cares was Tampa Bay as well. Uh,
Speaker 1: Mike game I don't know what to make of that game.
Speaker 1: I just I, uh, I can't play the Bengals, and
Speaker 1: yet I can't play the Cowboys either. I what are
Speaker 1: you going to get out of either side? The Yeah,
Speaker 1: you know it's I tell you if you if you
Speaker 1: held a gun into my head, I'd probably take Cincinnati,
Speaker 1: but I'm not playing it. No one uses that phrase anymore.
Speaker 1: Have you noticed everybody stopped at the same time come
Speaker 1: to the head thing? Yeah, socially because everyone's walking around strapped,
Speaker 1: But most people have nives, knives, ships, ships, Todd. Alright, Todd,
Speaker 1: what is your's your pick? I would probably go with
Speaker 1: the Cardinals against the Giants. I'm not sure what's happened
Speaker 1: to my boy, uh Kyler. He doesn't want to run anymore.
Speaker 1: That was what was making him so dynamic, his ability
Speaker 1: to run and also throw the football. So I'm a
Speaker 1: little worried about that team. On the other side, I
Speaker 1: have the Giants who been playing well defensively, but Colt
Speaker 1: McCoy is still the quarterback. Who you know, he's a
Speaker 1: good game manager and all. But I'm not really sure
Speaker 1: what to make of this football game. So I'm gonna
Speaker 1: stay away. Uh It was a toss up for me
Speaker 1: between Cardinals Giants in Denver and Carolina. But I think
Speaker 1: it's Cardinals Giants. I don't I don't know if Kyler
Speaker 1: Murray is hurt or not, and so for that reason
Speaker 1: might be heard. Also that's the other thing. Yeah, that's
Speaker 1: what we tell us. Adam is he hurt, He's got
Speaker 1: the shoulder issue, but he's I've never seen someone downplaying
Speaker 1: injuries consistently. He has, and he says the defenses have
Speaker 1: just figured out Kingsbury and they're making him hand the
Speaker 1: ball off. But that seems like a odd excuse that
Speaker 1: the Cardinals, with this offensive genius as the coordinator, would
Speaker 1: be able to figure out. But I think there's something
Speaker 1: more to it. Yeah, I'd say that game because of
Speaker 1: that Arizona Giants. By the way, James Connor is back
Speaker 1: for your stillers. Todd just want to point that out
Speaker 1: for this game. Never think. I was never a big
Speaker 1: fan of his, and I don't think the running back,
Speaker 1: unless you're a superstar running back, the running back is
Speaker 1: not the key to the the offensive the run game.
Speaker 1: The key of the run game is the offensive line.
Speaker 1: If you can't open holes, it doesn't matter who you
Speaker 1: have back there. Unless you have like Barry Sanders. If
Speaker 1: you don't have something like special, you can't run the ball.
Speaker 1: If you can't open holes, there are no holes. Would
Speaker 1: you say, Mike, I can't hear Mike, can't hear you. Mike. Oh,
Speaker 1: what did you say, Mike? Go ahead? Go ahead? No? No,
Speaker 1: what did you say? Nothing? Go ahead? Edited? Just just
Speaker 1: go Todd, what do you want to say? Nothing? I
Speaker 1: was just saying, if there's no holes to run through,
Speaker 1: you can't run. So it doesn't matter if James Conner,
Speaker 1: whoever comes up, Franco Harris could come back, you can't run,
Speaker 1: all right, lend it on that anything to say, Mike,
Speaker 1: it was really nice to have Adam on. It was
Speaker 1: a terrific job, not just on the NFL but on
Speaker 1: a variety of sports. And you know, he's had a
Speaker 1: little bit of a tough season with a big bounce
Speaker 1: back here. But people have to understand that this is
Speaker 1: there's gonna be ebbs and flows even for the best,
Speaker 1: the best in the world of doing this, and you
Speaker 1: have to be able to understand that and get yourself
Speaker 1: through it and not change the way um that you
Speaker 1: approach or manage your money or look at these games.
Speaker 1: That's right, Adam. You do a tremendous job with the podcast.
Speaker 1: When you named it, I was when you named it
Speaker 1: the Simple Handicap. There must have been a reason for
Speaker 1: that title specifically, what was it um? It was actually
Speaker 1: a whole article series that I was doing, and I
Speaker 1: originally put it on like the Amazon Alexa devices. But
Speaker 1: the premise was it was going to be just a quick,
Speaker 1: concise podcast every morning that and it was it was
Speaker 1: just explaining the the easiest way for both of the
Speaker 1: teams to win or what their success was within the handicaps.
Speaker 1: So it was the most simplistic handicap of each game
Speaker 1: which people could use because I think that sports betting
Speaker 1: media in general does like an unfortunate job of making
Speaker 1: everyone really overthink a lot of games. And so the
Speaker 1: premise was that it was just going to be a
Speaker 1: spot where you could listen every morning and sort of
Speaker 1: focus on the simplest handicap for each game. Love and
Speaker 1: that sort of built into an article series in the podcast. Well, Adam,
Speaker 1: I had the idea that I was going to do
Speaker 1: maybe like a fifteen minute at night recap of like
Speaker 1: in game bets and stuff like that now it was
Speaker 1: too lazy to do it, of course, but um, have
Speaker 1: you found like success with that, like you know, getting
Speaker 1: people to you know, do your downloads every day like
Speaker 1: habitually kind of Yeah, they say it just becomes a
Speaker 1: part of their day or routine, and like it's it's
Speaker 1: growing each day and every week. Not at a spectacular rate,
Speaker 1: but the retention from people has been really really good
Speaker 1: over the course of the last three seasons. So it's
Speaker 1: kind of become its own little community and it's pretty
Speaker 1: neat to see people hang onto it. At What time
Speaker 1: of day is it available? Typically? Um? I posted every
Speaker 1: morning before six am Eastern, so pretty much anyone who's
Speaker 1: waking up and on their way to work gets the
Speaker 1: full report every single morning, just to sort of a
Speaker 1: little quick briefing to stay in touch with the markets.
Speaker 1: Just NFL, Just NFL. I'm always thought about doing something
Speaker 1: for basketball as well, but I've just always done it
Speaker 1: for an NFL. NFL is king, no matter how good
Speaker 1: the other sports are. It's amazing. I can do the
Speaker 1: best baseball show in the history of mankind. Ceiling of listeners.
Speaker 1: We heard that one time and I wanted to do one.
Speaker 1: What's that and I wanted to do a baseball show
Speaker 1: and we were told, nobody gives, nobody cares. It's really true.
Speaker 1: If you if you whisper the word football, it's soars
Speaker 1: over over what you could. Don't know why they don't
Speaker 1: like college basketball because it's an amazing sport. And if
Speaker 1: you just watch I mean, it's ridiculous college basketball whatever.
Speaker 1: You can start your college basketball podcast, then I know.
Speaker 1: But then I would have to work and do something,
Speaker 1: and you know, effort. It would be effort. You know,
Speaker 1: there is that effort in my life. And I'm on
Speaker 1: the downside. I'm a retired kind of guy. Adam, Adam,
Speaker 1: sure enough, everybody. Adam, thank you so much for doing this. Man.
Speaker 1: I appreciate it so much. Keep the good word goes
Speaker 1: a ton of fun. I appreciate it again for the
Speaker 1: opportunity simple handicaps name of the podcast for Mike Palm,
Speaker 1: Thank you, Mikey, Thank you for having us at the
Speaker 1: d Thank you, thank you. Todd wishdev from the Cork
Speaker 1: Attic in Pittsburgh, p A appreciate it. Thank you all
Speaker 1: so much for listening. Good luck with all your Week
Speaker 1: four teen bets in the NFL. Survivor and beyond