WEBVTT - Why Is Our Economy Doing This? Lanhee Chen Talks to A&G

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<v Speaker 1>It's always great to have Alan he Chan on the show. Alan,

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<v Speaker 1>he's a candidate for the State Controller of California, is

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<v Speaker 1>a David Diane Staffy Fellow in American Public Policy Studies

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<v Speaker 1>at the Uber Institution, Director of Domestic Policy Studies at

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<v Speaker 1>Stanford University. Uh Lan he great to talk. How are you.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm doing well. Thanks, guys, great to do with you.

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<v Speaker 1>So you're a numbers guy and you're running for a

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<v Speaker 1>numbers oriented position, and we want to talk about that

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<v Speaker 1>in a couple of minutes. But you know, shortly before

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<v Speaker 1>he passed away, Rush Limbaugh said, there is no longer

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<v Speaker 1>a constituency for fiscal conservatism. Nobody wants to hear about it.

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<v Speaker 1>And certainly if you look at the last couple of

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<v Speaker 1>them in administrations and Congress on both sides of the aisle,

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<v Speaker 1>it looks like he's right. And I just wonder. I know,

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<v Speaker 1>you're not a fortune teller, you're you're a domestic policy expert.

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<v Speaker 1>But with with the hyper inflation, the rampant inflation, the

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<v Speaker 1>brutal prices, working people struggling just to put food on

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<v Speaker 1>the table, at this point, is it possible we'll have

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<v Speaker 1>some sort of national reawakening to the idea of living

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<v Speaker 1>within our means. I think it's entirely possible, especially when

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<v Speaker 1>you understand that part of the reason, I mean a

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<v Speaker 1>big part of the reason why I think we're experiencing

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<v Speaker 1>this massive inflation in the country now is because of

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<v Speaker 1>policy decisions we've made, and decisions that are directly related

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<v Speaker 1>to incredible amounts of fiscal stimulus and spending. Obviously, the

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<v Speaker 1>Federal Reserve has had something to do with that as well,

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<v Speaker 1>and with their easy money policies for a very very

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<v Speaker 1>long period of time. But if you put that assign

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<v Speaker 1>for a minute, I do think people look at the

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<v Speaker 1>environment and they recognize that we can't continue to pursue

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<v Speaker 1>this pathway we're on. The pathway that we're on has

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<v Speaker 1>led to record inflation. And it's not just things that

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<v Speaker 1>you know, people don't buy. It's it's basic commodity like

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<v Speaker 1>gas and milk, household necessities, even travel. I mean, in fact,

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<v Speaker 1>the single biggest component of h of indicators looking at

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<v Speaker 1>the rate of inflation, the single biggest increase has been

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<v Speaker 1>in airline travel in terms of how much we pay

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<v Speaker 1>for airline tickets. I think a horty percent increase year

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<v Speaker 1>over year. So this is stuff where people will look

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<v Speaker 1>and they'll say, Okay, what's happening. Why is our economy

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<v Speaker 1>doing this? And the answer is quite simple. It's because

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<v Speaker 1>nobody has been there to sound the alarm about the

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<v Speaker 1>way in the nature of our spending. If inflation continues

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<v Speaker 1>for a while though, and I think it will, and

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<v Speaker 1>the Republicans take over, will the presidents still get blamed

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<v Speaker 1>or will the Republicans start to take the heat for it,

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<v Speaker 1>because whoever's in charge tends to get blamed for a

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<v Speaker 1>bad economy. Yeah. And and the problem, of course is

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<v Speaker 1>that even if the Republicans win, you know, one or

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<v Speaker 1>two chambers of Congress, nothing's going to happen because whatever

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<v Speaker 1>they would want to do, the president will will be

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<v Speaker 1>against and vice versa. And and you know, we're kind

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<v Speaker 1>of stuck in this difficult cycle for the next couple

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<v Speaker 1>of years. Who takes the political blame? I mean, I

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<v Speaker 1>think part of that is how the politics get played

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<v Speaker 1>out by both sides. But I think that the reality

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<v Speaker 1>is both sides need to wake up to the fact.

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<v Speaker 1>And by the way, Republicans are just as guilty over

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<v Speaker 1>the last couple of years of not being physcally responsible

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<v Speaker 1>of not understanding what happens when you pump all this

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<v Speaker 1>money into the economy, of being in favor of policies

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<v Speaker 1>that unfortunately have driven up our debt and have driven up, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>the amount of spending. But if you put that aside

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<v Speaker 1>for a moment, I do think that both sides have

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<v Speaker 1>the potential to get blamed if this gets worse, because

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<v Speaker 1>now both of their hands are dirty. Well, just they

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<v Speaker 1>have to understand. Yeah, well just one of the reasons

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<v Speaker 1>I wanted to bring that up is um I heard

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<v Speaker 1>some other pundits discussing this, So this is not my

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<v Speaker 1>original idea, but you would think with inflation at a

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<v Speaker 1>forty year high, crime like we haven't seen for decades,

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<v Speaker 1>Republicans would be running away from this thing. Is with

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<v Speaker 1>this thing with this election all over the country is

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<v Speaker 1>opposed to just a slight advantage. So what's going on there? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>it's complicated. I mean, I think in different places the

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<v Speaker 1>the economy is kind of playing in different ways. I

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<v Speaker 1>do agree with the notion that the economy is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be the top issue in this election. I think

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<v Speaker 1>you see it here in California, you eat in other states.

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<v Speaker 1>I think in other states. There are issues, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>whether it's crime or some of the social issues that

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<v Speaker 1>do rise into that top three, top four. But fundamentally,

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<v Speaker 1>I think the polling doesn't reflect where people are on

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<v Speaker 1>the economy and how dominant it is going to be.

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<v Speaker 1>I think people are going to be surprised by how

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<v Speaker 1>predominant it is, and as a result, I do think

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<v Speaker 1>Republicans and many of these House races are going to

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<v Speaker 1>do well. I think in many of the Senate races

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<v Speaker 1>are going to do well. There's a few races where

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<v Speaker 1>where there's some candidate issues, but I do think overall

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<v Speaker 1>the economy is going to be a much more significant

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<v Speaker 1>issue than people are giving a credit for. Because I'll

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<v Speaker 1>tell you when I'm out there on the campaign trail,

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<v Speaker 1>that is all I ever hear about from people is

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<v Speaker 1>why does stuff cost so much? Why are we headed

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<v Speaker 1>for recession? How did we get here? And how do

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<v Speaker 1>we fix it? Hey? Speaking of polling, how do I

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<v Speaker 1>phrase this question? How well are polsters? How how good

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<v Speaker 1>a job repolsters doing these days? In actually reflecting the

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<v Speaker 1>support for Republican candidates and ideas. There's a widespread perception

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<v Speaker 1>among folks who are on the right side of politics,

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<v Speaker 1>and I just mean, you know, average every day folks

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<v Speaker 1>that um that that conservatives are much more hostile to

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<v Speaker 1>polling in general and so don't cooperate. Is there any

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<v Speaker 1>truth to that? Yeah, I do think there's some truth

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<v Speaker 1>to that. I do think that there is. There are

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of things going on. First of all, I

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<v Speaker 1>think that polsters are getting better at actually finding people.

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<v Speaker 1>So for a period of time, as people were shifting

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<v Speaker 1>from landlines the cell phones and their Internet use was increasing,

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<v Speaker 1>polsters had to accommodate the shift in how to reach people.

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<v Speaker 1>But also they had to figure out how do we

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<v Speaker 1>conduct internet polling or online polling in a scientifically valid way.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that shift, you know, has happened in

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<v Speaker 1>the last couple of years. I think it is essentially

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<v Speaker 1>complete now. So I think they've gotten better at that.

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<v Speaker 1>The problem that you're talking about sort of response bias,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, who answers the questions, who answers them accurately?

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<v Speaker 1>That is a very very real problem. And I think

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<v Speaker 1>if you talk to posters, they'll tell you that they

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<v Speaker 1>have a they have a challenge in terms of measuring

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<v Speaker 1>where right leaning Republican self identified Republican voters are, because

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<v Speaker 1>that is, it can be hard to get either a

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<v Speaker 1>real answer or any answer because there is this distrust

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<v Speaker 1>of the polling industry, particularly amongst some conservatives. So it's

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<v Speaker 1>a it's a problem. I think it's getting better. I

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<v Speaker 1>think that it will be addressed more in their scientific

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<v Speaker 1>ways to correct for some of this, and so hopefully

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<v Speaker 1>we'll have more accurate polling data. But you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>toughest question to answer is, like, you know, what do

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<v Speaker 1>the polls say? Because the reality is pulls a kind

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<v Speaker 1>of all over the place A and B. It's not

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<v Speaker 1>clear they're a an accurate representation of where the electorate is,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly to your point on the right of center. Start

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<v Speaker 1>all right, I don't know if you've been listening to

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<v Speaker 1>our reading what your friend Sarah Iger has been writing

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<v Speaker 1>in the Dispatch about issue polling. She says, it's almost

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<v Speaker 1>completely a waste of time. Do you agree here? Disagree?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, that's just what's so much about the way

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<v Speaker 1>you pray is the question and who you sample exactly exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>So so issue pulling is it's unique sort of has

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<v Speaker 1>unique difficulties because it is based on how you ask

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<v Speaker 1>the question, and it's also based on whatever your your

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<v Speaker 1>respondents understanding of the issue, and and and then it

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<v Speaker 1>becomes deeply kind of like a personal thing. Right, So

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<v Speaker 1>if you asked them a question about tax cuts, they

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<v Speaker 1>may or may have had some experience with the tax

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<v Speaker 1>code or some experience with a small business or whatever

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<v Speaker 1>that that affects their view of the policy, so that

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<v Speaker 1>you're not actually getting a true representation of the feeling

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<v Speaker 1>about the policy. You're getting you know, they're feeling about

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<v Speaker 1>the economy, or there's something is mixed into how they

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<v Speaker 1>feel about that policy. So it is hard. It's always

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<v Speaker 1>been hard to pull issues, by the way, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>that's not a new concept. I do think that it

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<v Speaker 1>makes it harder for policy makers to really understand where

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<v Speaker 1>the elector it is and to have public policy that's

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<v Speaker 1>responsive to what the electorate wants. But but it's not

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<v Speaker 1>a new problem, and it's one that certainly is out there.

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<v Speaker 1>So I have a question about the office you're running for,

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<v Speaker 1>and I will reveal to the listening audience my secret

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<v Speaker 1>motive in asking after you answer. But you're you're running

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<v Speaker 1>for California State Controller. What the heck does the state

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<v Speaker 1>controller do? The state controller is the fiscal watchdog, the

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<v Speaker 1>person who's supposed to give accountability for every single dollar

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<v Speaker 1>that they spend. So if you think about California as

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<v Speaker 1>a three hundred billion dollar a year enterprise, that's how

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<v Speaker 1>much we spend every year. Uh. This is the person

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<v Speaker 1>that's supposed to give us accountability and transparency for how

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<v Speaker 1>that money is spent. But more importantly, is supposed to

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<v Speaker 1>tell us how the spending is working. Is it achieving results?

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<v Speaker 1>Is it not? And so it is a particularly important

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<v Speaker 1>position at a time when California is spending more than

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<v Speaker 1>ever and some of our challenges here, whether it's homelessness

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<v Speaker 1>or public safety or the state of our public schools,

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<v Speaker 1>some of those challenges I think are bigger than they've

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<v Speaker 1>been at any point in my life. The idea of

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<v Speaker 1>the government of California taking time to make sure it's

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<v Speaker 1>spending money wisely and efficiently. I'll donate my next two

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<v Speaker 1>paychecks and a kidney if that will help you. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>because it's so important. So here's here's my secret motive

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<v Speaker 1>in bringing this up. Off year elections and so called

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<v Speaker 1>down ballot races are important, and I just want to

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<v Speaker 1>convey to the listeners the forces that would turn wherever

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<v Speaker 1>you live into another California, or make California even worse,

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<v Speaker 1>they turn out their people to elect controllers or attorney city,

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<v Speaker 1>attorney's county attorney's, attorneys general, that sort of thing. School boards.

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<v Speaker 1>We've all learned how important that is. Show up and vote,

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<v Speaker 1>especially in the off year elections. I agree, I agree

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<v Speaker 1>totally with you. That's hugely important. And and you you

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<v Speaker 1>mentioned a lot of these these races. I mean, the

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<v Speaker 1>school board races are critical, but also the races for

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<v Speaker 1>these down ballot offices. We have eight statewide constitutional officers

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<v Speaker 1>in California, and all of them play an important role.

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<v Speaker 1>And people need to understand and study the ballot and

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<v Speaker 1>and make informed decisions. Should you be controlling the fact

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<v Speaker 1>that the Los Angeles Dodgers with a two million dollar

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<v Speaker 1>payroll are attempting to buy a World Series championship. Listen, listen,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not There's no such thing as buying a World

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<v Speaker 1>Series Championship. They're gonna go out there, They're gonna go

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<v Speaker 1>out there and earn it. They're gonna go out there

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<v Speaker 1>and earn it. As every confidence they're gonna win this series.

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<v Speaker 1>I always always like it when people say this sort

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<v Speaker 1>of thing because I've been a you know, following this

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<v Speaker 1>angle in sports for a long time. The Mets, who

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<v Speaker 1>didn't make the playoffs have the number one payroll. The Padres,

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<v Speaker 1>who are the young up starts trying to take on

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<v Speaker 1>the Dodgers, have the fourth highest payroll in all of baseball.

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<v Speaker 1>So there you go. I was gonna say, what are

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<v Speaker 1>your communist? It's a for profit business. Hey, we're up

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<v Speaker 1>against a break lin he. But it's always great to

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<v Speaker 1>talk to you, long he Chan, candidate for California State

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<v Speaker 1>Controller with the Hoover Institution Stanford University. Always a pleasure, sir,

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<v Speaker 1>stay in touch. Great to be thank you are getting