1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:02,360 Speaker 1: It's always great to have Alan he Chan on the show. Alan, 2 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:05,960 Speaker 1: he's a candidate for the State Controller of California, is 3 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 1: a David Diane Staffy Fellow in American Public Policy Studies 4 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:12,000 Speaker 1: at the Uber Institution, Director of Domestic Policy Studies at 5 00:00:12,039 --> 00:00:16,000 Speaker 1: Stanford University. Uh Lan he great to talk. How are you. 6 00:00:16,720 --> 00:00:18,599 Speaker 1: I'm doing well. Thanks, guys, great to do with you. 7 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:21,400 Speaker 1: So you're a numbers guy and you're running for a 8 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 1: numbers oriented position, and we want to talk about that 9 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 1: in a couple of minutes. But you know, shortly before 10 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 1: he passed away, Rush Limbaugh said, there is no longer 11 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:34,760 Speaker 1: a constituency for fiscal conservatism. Nobody wants to hear about it. 12 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 1: And certainly if you look at the last couple of 13 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:40,200 Speaker 1: them in administrations and Congress on both sides of the aisle, 14 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 1: it looks like he's right. And I just wonder. I know, 15 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 1: you're not a fortune teller, you're you're a domestic policy expert. 16 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 1: But with with the hyper inflation, the rampant inflation, the 17 00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 1: brutal prices, working people struggling just to put food on 18 00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 1: the table, at this point, is it possible we'll have 19 00:00:56,920 --> 00:01:00,400 Speaker 1: some sort of national reawakening to the idea of living 20 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 1: within our means. I think it's entirely possible, especially when 21 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 1: you understand that part of the reason, I mean a 22 00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:09,880 Speaker 1: big part of the reason why I think we're experiencing 23 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 1: this massive inflation in the country now is because of 24 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 1: policy decisions we've made, and decisions that are directly related 25 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:21,039 Speaker 1: to incredible amounts of fiscal stimulus and spending. Obviously, the 26 00:01:21,040 --> 00:01:23,039 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve has had something to do with that as well, 27 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:25,200 Speaker 1: and with their easy money policies for a very very 28 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:27,400 Speaker 1: long period of time. But if you put that assign 29 00:01:27,440 --> 00:01:29,600 Speaker 1: for a minute, I do think people look at the 30 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:34,000 Speaker 1: environment and they recognize that we can't continue to pursue 31 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:36,479 Speaker 1: this pathway we're on. The pathway that we're on has 32 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:39,959 Speaker 1: led to record inflation. And it's not just things that 33 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:43,120 Speaker 1: you know, people don't buy. It's it's basic commodity like 34 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:48,400 Speaker 1: gas and milk, household necessities, even travel. I mean, in fact, 35 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 1: the single biggest component of h of indicators looking at 36 00:01:53,040 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 1: the rate of inflation, the single biggest increase has been 37 00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 1: in airline travel in terms of how much we pay 38 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 1: for airline tickets. I think a horty percent increase year 39 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 1: over year. So this is stuff where people will look 40 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 1: and they'll say, Okay, what's happening. Why is our economy 41 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,400 Speaker 1: doing this? And the answer is quite simple. It's because 42 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 1: nobody has been there to sound the alarm about the 43 00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:18,919 Speaker 1: way in the nature of our spending. If inflation continues 44 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 1: for a while though, and I think it will, and 45 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 1: the Republicans take over, will the presidents still get blamed 46 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:27,079 Speaker 1: or will the Republicans start to take the heat for it, 47 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:29,800 Speaker 1: because whoever's in charge tends to get blamed for a 48 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 1: bad economy. Yeah. And and the problem, of course is 49 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:35,600 Speaker 1: that even if the Republicans win, you know, one or 50 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:38,800 Speaker 1: two chambers of Congress, nothing's going to happen because whatever 51 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 1: they would want to do, the president will will be 52 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 1: against and vice versa. And and you know, we're kind 53 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:45,600 Speaker 1: of stuck in this difficult cycle for the next couple 54 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:47,880 Speaker 1: of years. Who takes the political blame? I mean, I 55 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:50,240 Speaker 1: think part of that is how the politics get played 56 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:53,440 Speaker 1: out by both sides. But I think that the reality 57 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:55,640 Speaker 1: is both sides need to wake up to the fact. 58 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 1: And by the way, Republicans are just as guilty over 59 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:01,240 Speaker 1: the last couple of years of not being physcally responsible 60 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:04,200 Speaker 1: of not understanding what happens when you pump all this 61 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 1: money into the economy, of being in favor of policies 62 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:10,359 Speaker 1: that unfortunately have driven up our debt and have driven up, uh, 63 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 1: the amount of spending. But if you put that aside 64 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:15,640 Speaker 1: for a moment, I do think that both sides have 65 00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:18,239 Speaker 1: the potential to get blamed if this gets worse, because 66 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:20,360 Speaker 1: now both of their hands are dirty. Well, just they 67 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 1: have to understand. Yeah, well just one of the reasons 68 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 1: I wanted to bring that up is um I heard 69 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:27,240 Speaker 1: some other pundits discussing this, So this is not my 70 00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:29,800 Speaker 1: original idea, but you would think with inflation at a 71 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 1: forty year high, crime like we haven't seen for decades, 72 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 1: Republicans would be running away from this thing. Is with 73 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 1: this thing with this election all over the country is 74 00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:46,360 Speaker 1: opposed to just a slight advantage. So what's going on there? Well, 75 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 1: it's complicated. I mean, I think in different places the 76 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,120 Speaker 1: the economy is kind of playing in different ways. I 77 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:55,640 Speaker 1: do agree with the notion that the economy is going 78 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 1: to be the top issue in this election. I think 79 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:00,880 Speaker 1: you see it here in California, you eat in other states. 80 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 1: I think in other states. There are issues, you know, 81 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 1: whether it's crime or some of the social issues that 82 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 1: do rise into that top three, top four. But fundamentally, 83 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:13,680 Speaker 1: I think the polling doesn't reflect where people are on 84 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 1: the economy and how dominant it is going to be. 85 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:20,200 Speaker 1: I think people are going to be surprised by how 86 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 1: predominant it is, and as a result, I do think 87 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 1: Republicans and many of these House races are going to 88 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 1: do well. I think in many of the Senate races 89 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 1: are going to do well. There's a few races where 90 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 1: where there's some candidate issues, but I do think overall 91 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 1: the economy is going to be a much more significant 92 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:38,880 Speaker 1: issue than people are giving a credit for. Because I'll 93 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 1: tell you when I'm out there on the campaign trail, 94 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 1: that is all I ever hear about from people is 95 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:45,479 Speaker 1: why does stuff cost so much? Why are we headed 96 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:47,839 Speaker 1: for recession? How did we get here? And how do 97 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:51,440 Speaker 1: we fix it? Hey? Speaking of polling, how do I 98 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:55,800 Speaker 1: phrase this question? How well are polsters? How how good 99 00:04:55,839 --> 00:05:00,279 Speaker 1: a job repolsters doing these days? In actually reflecting the 100 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:07,040 Speaker 1: support for Republican candidates and ideas. There's a widespread perception 101 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 1: among folks who are on the right side of politics, 102 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:11,719 Speaker 1: and I just mean, you know, average every day folks 103 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:15,599 Speaker 1: that um that that conservatives are much more hostile to 104 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:18,159 Speaker 1: polling in general and so don't cooperate. Is there any 105 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 1: truth to that? Yeah, I do think there's some truth 106 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 1: to that. I do think that there is. There are 107 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:26,520 Speaker 1: a couple of things going on. First of all, I 108 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:30,320 Speaker 1: think that polsters are getting better at actually finding people. 109 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 1: So for a period of time, as people were shifting 110 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:36,720 Speaker 1: from landlines the cell phones and their Internet use was increasing, 111 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:40,760 Speaker 1: polsters had to accommodate the shift in how to reach people. 112 00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:42,719 Speaker 1: But also they had to figure out how do we 113 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:48,000 Speaker 1: conduct internet polling or online polling in a scientifically valid way. 114 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 1: And I think that shift, you know, has happened in 115 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 1: the last couple of years. I think it is essentially 116 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:54,720 Speaker 1: complete now. So I think they've gotten better at that. 117 00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:58,040 Speaker 1: The problem that you're talking about sort of response bias, 118 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 1: you know, who answers the questions, who answers them accurately? 119 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:03,680 Speaker 1: That is a very very real problem. And I think 120 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 1: if you talk to posters, they'll tell you that they 121 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 1: have a they have a challenge in terms of measuring 122 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 1: where right leaning Republican self identified Republican voters are, because 123 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:16,720 Speaker 1: that is, it can be hard to get either a 124 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:19,880 Speaker 1: real answer or any answer because there is this distrust 125 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:23,920 Speaker 1: of the polling industry, particularly amongst some conservatives. So it's 126 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:27,160 Speaker 1: a it's a problem. I think it's getting better. I 127 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:30,000 Speaker 1: think that it will be addressed more in their scientific 128 00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 1: ways to correct for some of this, and so hopefully 129 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 1: we'll have more accurate polling data. But you know, the 130 00:06:34,320 --> 00:06:36,240 Speaker 1: toughest question to answer is, like, you know, what do 131 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:39,480 Speaker 1: the polls say? Because the reality is pulls a kind 132 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:41,800 Speaker 1: of all over the place A and B. It's not 133 00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:44,720 Speaker 1: clear they're a an accurate representation of where the electorate is, 134 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:46,719 Speaker 1: particularly to your point on the right of center. Start 135 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:48,200 Speaker 1: all right, I don't know if you've been listening to 136 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:51,320 Speaker 1: our reading what your friend Sarah Iger has been writing 137 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:54,760 Speaker 1: in the Dispatch about issue polling. She says, it's almost 138 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 1: completely a waste of time. Do you agree here? Disagree? 139 00:06:57,400 --> 00:06:59,600 Speaker 1: I mean, that's just what's so much about the way 140 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 1: you pray is the question and who you sample exactly exactly. 141 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:06,600 Speaker 1: So so issue pulling is it's unique sort of has 142 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:09,560 Speaker 1: unique difficulties because it is based on how you ask 143 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 1: the question, and it's also based on whatever your your 144 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:17,000 Speaker 1: respondents understanding of the issue, and and and then it 145 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 1: becomes deeply kind of like a personal thing. Right, So 146 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:21,880 Speaker 1: if you asked them a question about tax cuts, they 147 00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 1: may or may have had some experience with the tax 148 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 1: code or some experience with a small business or whatever 149 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 1: that that affects their view of the policy, so that 150 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:33,800 Speaker 1: you're not actually getting a true representation of the feeling 151 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 1: about the policy. You're getting you know, they're feeling about 152 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:39,880 Speaker 1: the economy, or there's something is mixed into how they 153 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 1: feel about that policy. So it is hard. It's always 154 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 1: been hard to pull issues, by the way, I mean, 155 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 1: that's not a new concept. I do think that it 156 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:50,560 Speaker 1: makes it harder for policy makers to really understand where 157 00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 1: the elector it is and to have public policy that's 158 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,960 Speaker 1: responsive to what the electorate wants. But but it's not 159 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:58,560 Speaker 1: a new problem, and it's one that certainly is out there. 160 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 1: So I have a question about the office you're running for, 161 00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 1: and I will reveal to the listening audience my secret 162 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 1: motive in asking after you answer. But you're you're running 163 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 1: for California State Controller. What the heck does the state 164 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:16,120 Speaker 1: controller do? The state controller is the fiscal watchdog, the 165 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:19,440 Speaker 1: person who's supposed to give accountability for every single dollar 166 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 1: that they spend. So if you think about California as 167 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 1: a three hundred billion dollar a year enterprise, that's how 168 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 1: much we spend every year. Uh. This is the person 169 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:32,880 Speaker 1: that's supposed to give us accountability and transparency for how 170 00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:35,520 Speaker 1: that money is spent. But more importantly, is supposed to 171 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:38,680 Speaker 1: tell us how the spending is working. Is it achieving results? 172 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 1: Is it not? And so it is a particularly important 173 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:44,800 Speaker 1: position at a time when California is spending more than 174 00:08:44,800 --> 00:08:47,960 Speaker 1: ever and some of our challenges here, whether it's homelessness 175 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 1: or public safety or the state of our public schools, 176 00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 1: some of those challenges I think are bigger than they've 177 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:55,960 Speaker 1: been at any point in my life. The idea of 178 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:59,120 Speaker 1: the government of California taking time to make sure it's 179 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:03,079 Speaker 1: spending money wisely and efficiently. I'll donate my next two 180 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:05,400 Speaker 1: paychecks and a kidney if that will help you. I mean, 181 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:08,720 Speaker 1: because it's so important. So here's here's my secret motive 182 00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:13,160 Speaker 1: in bringing this up. Off year elections and so called 183 00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 1: down ballot races are important, and I just want to 184 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 1: convey to the listeners the forces that would turn wherever 185 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:26,680 Speaker 1: you live into another California, or make California even worse, 186 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:32,560 Speaker 1: they turn out their people to elect controllers or attorney city, 187 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:37,559 Speaker 1: attorney's county attorney's, attorneys general, that sort of thing. School boards. 188 00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:42,400 Speaker 1: We've all learned how important that is. Show up and vote, 189 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 1: especially in the off year elections. I agree, I agree 190 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:50,400 Speaker 1: totally with you. That's hugely important. And and you you 191 00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:52,320 Speaker 1: mentioned a lot of these these races. I mean, the 192 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:55,760 Speaker 1: school board races are critical, but also the races for 193 00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:59,199 Speaker 1: these down ballot offices. We have eight statewide constitutional officers 194 00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 1: in California, and all of them play an important role. 195 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:04,440 Speaker 1: And people need to understand and study the ballot and 196 00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:07,439 Speaker 1: and make informed decisions. Should you be controlling the fact 197 00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 1: that the Los Angeles Dodgers with a two million dollar 198 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 1: payroll are attempting to buy a World Series championship. Listen, listen, 199 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 1: it's not There's no such thing as buying a World 200 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 1: Series Championship. They're gonna go out there, They're gonna go 201 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 1: out there and earn it. They're gonna go out there 202 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:26,200 Speaker 1: and earn it. As every confidence they're gonna win this series. 203 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 1: I always always like it when people say this sort 204 00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 1: of thing because I've been a you know, following this 205 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:32,080 Speaker 1: angle in sports for a long time. The Mets, who 206 00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:36,319 Speaker 1: didn't make the playoffs have the number one payroll. The Padres, 207 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 1: who are the young up starts trying to take on 208 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:40,920 Speaker 1: the Dodgers, have the fourth highest payroll in all of baseball. 209 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:43,320 Speaker 1: So there you go. I was gonna say, what are 210 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 1: your communist? It's a for profit business. Hey, we're up 211 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:47,839 Speaker 1: against a break lin he. But it's always great to 212 00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 1: talk to you, long he Chan, candidate for California State 213 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:55,400 Speaker 1: Controller with the Hoover Institution Stanford University. Always a pleasure, sir, 214 00:10:55,520 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 1: stay in touch. Great to be thank you are getting