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Speaker 1: Who you put your trust in matters. Investors have put

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Speaker 1: their trust and independent registered investment advisors to the two

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Speaker 1: and four trillion dollars. Why learn more and find your

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Speaker 1: independent advisor dot com. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you

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Speaker 1: insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on iTunes, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and

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Speaker 1: of course, on the Bloomberg Chrispharron joins us head of

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Speaker 1: Technical analysis at Fatiguous Research Partners. Chris, great to speak with,

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Speaker 1: great to be here. Give us first the historical perspective here.

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Speaker 1: We have watched the market since, watched the market especially

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Speaker 1: closely here since the presidential election. How does it fit

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Speaker 1: into history, the kind of rally that we've seen. Well, actually,

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Speaker 1: it's not that extraordinary. If you look at four key

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Speaker 1: returns thus far, they're about average for what would expect

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Speaker 1: this time of year. So I would be hard pressed

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Speaker 1: to call the market terribly extended at this point by

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Speaker 1: our work. It just doesn't look at when you look

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Speaker 1: at at correlations, what do you see at this point, Well,

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Speaker 1: what we see is dispersion. We see correlations among stocks

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Speaker 1: in the SMP right now the lowest they've been in

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Speaker 1: about ten years. So your stock picking matters. Now. What

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Speaker 1: we've learned historically is when correlations are moving lower, it's

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Speaker 1: often consistent with a credit environment that is supportive. It's

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Speaker 1: also consistent typically with the market that's going up, not

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Speaker 1: a market that's going down. So lower correlations to us

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Speaker 1: reflect normalcy. A line stood out to be in most

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Speaker 1: recent note, you said the election has been the first

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Speaker 1: macro event and eighteen months where correlations have actually declined.

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Speaker 1: What's it? What's it play there? Yeah, Well, if we

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Speaker 1: look at the last eighteen months of price history, we

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Speaker 1: had a number of macro events. We had the kind

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Speaker 1: of devaluation in August. We saw correlation spike when oil

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Speaker 1: was at twenty six. We saw a correlation spike around Brexit.

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Speaker 1: The same thing that tells us that investors were not

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Speaker 1: distinguishing among stocks. They were not discriminating among stocks, they

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Speaker 1: were treating them as an asset class. Uh. It seems

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Speaker 1: like today, UH, investors are treating individual names on their

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Speaker 1: own individual merit. UH. That is a healthier framework. It's

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Speaker 1: often one that is consistent with lower volatility as well,

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Speaker 1: so we welcome the change. I also think it's good

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Speaker 1: news for active here in the act of verse passive debate,

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Speaker 1: given that dispersion has widening, correlations have come in. We'll

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Speaker 1: take into some of those those companies here in a moment.

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Speaker 1: But when you look at, let's say the financial sector,

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Speaker 1: the enthusiasm that that we've seen there, there's the enthusiasm,

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Speaker 1: how about the technicals? What's that's saying about the financial sector?

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Speaker 1: What I think is a little bit ironic about the enthusiasm.

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Speaker 1: If you look at the cell side, the Bank Group

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Speaker 1: has the second fewest number of buy ratings among cell

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Speaker 1: side analysts compared to any of the group, So I

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Speaker 1: would hardly call the seuth side UM overwhelmingly enthusiastic. The

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Speaker 1: number of downgrades to upgrade since the election has really

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Speaker 1: been staggering for the group, and that's almost hard to

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Speaker 1: believe when I look at the group UM. I think

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Speaker 1: the most important chart of two thousand and sixteen has

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Speaker 1: been the breakout in JP Morgan. This is a stock

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Speaker 1: that went nowhere for seventeen years. It peaked in March

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Speaker 1: of two thousand. It was in purgatory for almost two decades,

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Speaker 1: then move through sixty five. The move to eighty I

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Speaker 1: think is a game changer. I think it's the most

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Speaker 1: important chart of two thousand and sixteen. Is there is

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Speaker 1: there a room to run here yet? In other words,

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Speaker 1: we've seen such advancement in the in the sector. Uh,

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Speaker 1: is it oversold at this point? I don't think it's

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Speaker 1: remotely done. In the context of the longer term story, UM,

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Speaker 1: this is a regime change to These are stocks that

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Speaker 1: you could not own, not just for the last six

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Speaker 1: or seven years, but really for the last ten or

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Speaker 1: twelve years. What we've seen historically is when a sector

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Speaker 1: stays out of favor for that ten to twelve year

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Speaker 1: period UM, the next number revers tend to be quite good.

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Speaker 1: We saw it with tech. Tech was out of favor

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Speaker 1: from two thousand and two really up to two thousand ten.

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Speaker 1: We certainly saw with healthcare up through about two thousand nine,

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Speaker 1: and we've seen it with banks the last ten to

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Speaker 1: twelve years. We think this is the early endings of

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Speaker 1: a new secular ble market in bank stocks, and we

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Speaker 1: just want to be there. There is a bellweatherness to

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Speaker 1: to black Rock. You've got a chart of that in

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Speaker 1: your most recent Now, what's that telling you right now

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Speaker 1: when you look at black Rock in particularly, Yeah, you know,

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Speaker 1: I've always looked to black Rock as a barometer for

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Speaker 1: the broader market. It's almost a leverage plan on stocks.

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Speaker 1: When black Rock is going up, the SMP tends to

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Speaker 1: be going up, and conversely, when black Rock is going down,

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Speaker 1: the return environment tends to be more challenging. So black

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Speaker 1: Rock is another stock where it's really spent the last

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Speaker 1: twenty four months, uh, not making anyone any money, and

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Speaker 1: the market really didn't make anyone any money for the

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Speaker 1: last twenty four months. So we welcome the breakout there

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Speaker 1: over the last several weeks. And I think importantly I

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Speaker 1: welcome the breakout in the relative sense as well. I

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Speaker 1: am getting paid to own this stock relative to something else.

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Speaker 1: That is the other big change for financials. They've become

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Speaker 1: relative plays for the first time in a decade. We're

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Speaker 1: talking with Chris of her own, head of technical analysis

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Speaker 1: at Fatiguous Research Partners. Let's pivot to energy. Now, if

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Speaker 1: we could we see oil a bit softer this morning.

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Speaker 1: We had seen some some higher numbers earlier in the week.

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Speaker 1: What do you say when you look at the energy set.

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Speaker 1: When you look at oil in particular right now, Frankly,

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Speaker 1: I think it's the most difficult on the street right now.

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Speaker 1: As a chartist, it's not a bad picture, uh, And

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Speaker 1: I could see it grinding towards sixty over the next

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Speaker 1: number of months. But what tempers my enthusiasm is the history.

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Speaker 1: And when I say the history, I mean, let's remember

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Speaker 1: we're only a year removed from a seventy decline in oil,

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Speaker 1: and when we've seen that in the past, the next

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Speaker 1: number of years have looked a lot like a big

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Speaker 1: trading range where you get some pretty vicious rallies and

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Speaker 1: some pretty vicious declines. Now that's certainly been the case

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Speaker 1: this year. We doubled off the low, but along the

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Speaker 1: way we also had another thirty percent decline in the

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Speaker 1: price of crude. So I think, in the context of

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Speaker 1: how much volatility are you assuming to be long crude,

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Speaker 1: that may be a bit higher than you're comfortable with.

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Speaker 1: So I think mean reversion is still the name of

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Speaker 1: the game when it comes to oil here, not unlike

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Speaker 1: how crude behaved coming out of the six bearer market,

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Speaker 1: where really the next decade was characterized by some pretty

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Speaker 1: vicious trading ranges. So yes, we can grind towards sixty.

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Speaker 1: I would temper my I would temper my return enthusiasm

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Speaker 1: much above that. What it's part of the dumb question here,

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Speaker 1: but what what is sentiment? When you're doing technical analysis?

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Speaker 1: What is what is sentiment? Exactly? What's it telling you? Right? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you know that's a great question, and I often think

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Speaker 1: it's a little misinterpreted. I think it's used too often,

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Speaker 1: number one. But we like to think of sentiment in

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Speaker 1: one of two ways. Number One, there is the data

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Speaker 1: that tells us what people say they're doing with their money.

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Speaker 1: And then secondly, there is the data that tells us

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Speaker 1: what people actually are doing with their money. So surveys

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Speaker 1: is positioning, and we always put a greater references on

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Speaker 1: the ladder. And I think often there can be a

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Speaker 1: dichotomy between what people are saying they're doing and what

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Speaker 1: people are actually doing. I think we see that right

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Speaker 1: now in the equity market. When I travel around and

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Speaker 1: I talked to clients. There are certainly a return to

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Speaker 1: animal spirits here. There is certainly, I think some sense

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Speaker 1: that people are talking like they're more bullish. But for

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Speaker 1: us it really hasn't shown up yet any great extent

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Speaker 1: in positioning. The street is actually still running net short

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Speaker 1: SMP futures right now if you can imagine that. Now,

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Speaker 1: some of that is hedging, but by and large, I

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Speaker 1: don't think that's reflective of a very euphoric um, of

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Speaker 1: a very euphoric environment at the moment. We're talking about

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Speaker 1: correlation a moment ago or those two things often correlated,

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Speaker 1: or it is one lead the other. Other words, a

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Speaker 1: sentiment lead positioning. Usually you know, typically UM, it can

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Speaker 1: actually be the other way around, And you know what's

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Speaker 1: been I think the most surprising part um really of

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Speaker 1: all my conversations the last four or five weeks with

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Speaker 1: investors really around the world is UM. I think there's

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Speaker 1: been this tendency to look to November eighth or November

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Speaker 1: nine as just the game changing week of the year.

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Speaker 1: I disagree to some extent. I think this market really

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Speaker 1: started to change over the course of the summer. Um

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Speaker 1: leadership began to change before bond yields started to go up.

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Speaker 1: We saw financial start to improve by July, we saw

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Speaker 1: industrial leadership all year. So in context of sentiment, I

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Speaker 1: have often found it trails actual price action. I think

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Speaker 1: there's a tendency in our business to feel uncomfortable with

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Speaker 1: an investment idea unless you have a story to go

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Speaker 1: along with it, And we actually take the other approach

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Speaker 1: in our work. We think the story will follow. We

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Speaker 1: don't want to ignore price action. That to us is

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Speaker 1: always more important sentiment When you look at at at

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Speaker 1: sentiment of the risks that that poses for the new year.

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Speaker 1: What are you seeing? Well, I think at some point, um,

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Speaker 1: there's gonna be a story to tell in the first

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Speaker 1: quarter where perhaps sentiment is getting a little bit too aggressive.

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Speaker 1: Now it's hard enough to forecast price, it's even harder

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Speaker 1: to forecast sent to me. So we'll let that develop

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Speaker 1: over the course of January and February. It's something to

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Speaker 1: be on guard four as we move later into the

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Speaker 1: first quarter, particularly when the seasonal backdrop gets a little

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Speaker 1: bit more supportive later in the spring. All right, Christopher

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Speaker 1: and stay with us if you that's Christopher own, their

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Speaker 1: head of technical analysis of Fatiguous Research partners joining us

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Speaker 1: here in New York. Tom and I are at the

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Speaker 1: Power Breakfast of the Pier Hotels there with Morgan Stanley.

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Speaker 1: I mentioned all the economic data rattled it off here

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Speaker 1: a moment ago. What are you looking forward to most

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Speaker 1: this morning? What's going to tell us that the most

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Speaker 1: about the state of the US economy? Drible goods GDP.

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Speaker 1: What's what's the focus for you this morning? You know, GDP,

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Speaker 1: it's a revised number, right, We're already looking ahead towards

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Speaker 1: what the fourth quarter is tracking. Fourth quarter is tracking

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Speaker 1: not that great, right, And so that's what I'm more

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Speaker 1: focused on, rather than how close to three percent did

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Speaker 1: we grow in the third quarter? UM, durable goods. I

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Speaker 1: don't think any data there is going to turn around, uh,

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Speaker 1: the trend until we get well into what might be

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Speaker 1: delivered from Trump next year, if if corporates decide to

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Speaker 1: change their behavior. UM, it's just not been a good

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Speaker 1: trajectory for business investment. So really it comes down to

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Speaker 1: that high frequency data of weekly jobless claims. You know,

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Speaker 1: when do we start and do we start seeing layoffs rise?

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Speaker 1: I mean they're at extraordinarily low levels UM, and you

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Speaker 1: know how much lower can they go if say Trump's

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Speaker 1: policies kick off another wave of of hiring. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is what the Fed is worried about. We've already

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Speaker 1: got a tightish labor market UM and so watching those

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Speaker 1: jobless claims are very important. Are we able to actually

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Speaker 1: push them even lower below record historical lows or do

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Speaker 1: they start to rise? Uh? You beg the question there

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Speaker 1: Until we get Donald Trump in office, there is the

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Speaker 1: pros of the promise of so much change or how

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Speaker 1: much do the data, like the data we're gonna get

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Speaker 1: today mean and light of that, you know, things could

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Speaker 1: change so radically, it seems well, I think that that's

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Speaker 1: that's one thing that that worries me. No, economists are

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Speaker 1: the dismal scientists, So I have to inject some sort

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Speaker 1: of you know, dismal comments here already have the Nickel reference. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I might, I might take it even darker. Um No,

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Speaker 1: But what worries me is that, um, you know we

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Speaker 1: we are markets are trading like it's a new day. Um.

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Speaker 1: And if that new day doesn't come, what are we

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Speaker 1: stuck with? We've been on a slowing trajectory for the economy. Um.

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Speaker 1: You know, wage growth has not picked up meaningfully. Real

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Speaker 1: disposable income on the household side is slowing pretty noticeably. Um.

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Speaker 1: And that's the world that you're left with. A business

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Speaker 1: investment has been declining, that's the world you're left with

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Speaker 1: if that new day doesn't come, UM, And so it

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Speaker 1: worries me how willing how patient will markets be in

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Speaker 1: waiting for that new day to come when you're forecasting

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Speaker 1: out And again, we've heard so much about what could

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Speaker 1: happen here. What could contribute most to growth? Is a

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Speaker 1: tax reform, is repatriation holiday? Is it changes to regulation

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Speaker 1: and sort of gaming that out. What do you see

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Speaker 1: as having potentially the most influence on on the health

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Speaker 1: of the U. S economy? Well, Corporate tax reform if

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Speaker 1: it's done in a way that incentivizes businesses to invest

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Speaker 1: put more capex in place. UM. Personal income tax reform UH,

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Speaker 1: if it's UH at the very least more fair and balance,

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Speaker 1: but at least if there's enough targeted towards the lower

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Speaker 1: income groups because they do spend more of those tax dollars.

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Speaker 1: You know, those are the things that get the bigger impact. UM.

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Speaker 1: The The unknown here, of course, is on trade policy UM.

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Speaker 1: And what I find when I talked to investors is

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Speaker 1: that many of them are cherry picking Trump's policies um

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Speaker 1: uh to fit into whatever desired outcome they want for

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Speaker 1: the economy. And and so many are focused on the

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Speaker 1: positives from tax reform and not the possible negatives from

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Speaker 1: an unknown trade policy. Uh. And so with so many unknowns,

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Speaker 1: you know, we do our best to forecast what the

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Speaker 1: economy might look like under Trump, but know that those

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Speaker 1: forecasts have to be nimble, and it's a it's a

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Speaker 1: moving timeline. It is the power breakfast at the Pier Hotel.

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Speaker 1: David Gurr and I really love to attend here on

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Speaker 1: Fifth Avenue. It is, of course the storied hotel part

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Speaker 1: of the TAJ group. And uh, they do it right.

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Speaker 1: It is. It is a quieter breakfast, which is very cool.

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Speaker 1: Can be on Twitter. They have a difficulty ignoring us,

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Speaker 1: we know, but every table's taken, and even with every

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Speaker 1: table taken, it's still quiet. What I would notice a

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Speaker 1: coffee is off the church. It's the only reason we

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Speaker 1: got Ellen Center here Stanley empowered by Bacon. When you

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Speaker 1: talk to Mr Gorman of Morgan Stanley or Mr Rhddecker

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Speaker 1: of your foreign exchange shop, how do you death tail

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Speaker 1: in a subpar g d P vector with Hans Rhdecker's

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Speaker 1: call for a strong dollar policy from the Trump Well,

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Speaker 1: I think a strong dollar, called, you know, dampens growth.

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Speaker 1: So it's a tempering catcher. Uh So, for every ten

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Speaker 1: percent sustained to increase in the trade weighted dollar, it

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Speaker 1: can dampen GDP growth by about half a percentage point um.

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Speaker 1: And so I think what what might be missed in

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Speaker 1: some of the more lofty forecasts in a post Trump

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Speaker 1: world is that those forecasts should also be accompanied by

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Speaker 1: a stronger dollar, which dampens overall business investment to some

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Speaker 1: extent and dampens UH inflation to some extent a well

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Speaker 1: as well, or limits the upside, let's say. And so

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Speaker 1: I think that that has missed UH, at least in

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Speaker 1: some of the more lofty forecasts I see in a

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Speaker 1: post Trump world, but it plays very importantly into our

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Speaker 1: post Trump forecasts. What does the US consumer look like

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Speaker 1: to you? Right now here, we are nearing the holidays,

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Speaker 1: Thomas heading out afterward to buy his his satchel of gifts.

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Speaker 1: I'm buying the entire a Rule Levine catalog and support

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Speaker 1: of nickelback. It's going all Canadians. I'm all Canadian today. Wow,

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Speaker 1: that's great. More power to a swipeho a swife of

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Speaker 1: the finger on Amazon and you're done. You're there. I'm

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Speaker 1: sure they're on the deep discount anyhow, I think I

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Speaker 1: think what we've seen with the U S consumer, especially

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Speaker 1: this holiday season, is that they are buying more, but

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Speaker 1: it deeper discounts, and so in nominal terms, sales are okay, right.

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Speaker 1: And then of course, you know, you have to differentiate

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Speaker 1: between big box retailers that continue to lose share UM

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Speaker 1: two companies like Amazon, the the Internet retailers. I think overall, UM,

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Speaker 1: it continues to be a cautious consumer. Some of that

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Speaker 1: is driven by the growing share of the population that

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Speaker 1: is aging and moving into the age cohorts associated with

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Speaker 1: lower rates of spending UM. But overall, in terms of

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Speaker 1: the household balance sheet, I'm encouraged. It's unprecedented. You know.

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Speaker 1: One of the worries is when interest rates start rising

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Speaker 1: more quickly, what does that do to the household balance sheet?

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Speaker 1: UM And very little of it is exposed to a

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Speaker 1: variable rate, and that's good news. It means it is

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Speaker 1: interest rates rise, the interest expense on the balance sheet

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Speaker 1: does not eat into disposable income in a way that

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Speaker 1: it has in the past, and that can stretch the

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Speaker 1: consumer cycle longer because they have more cushion to absorb

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Speaker 1: a faster economy with higher interest rates or absorb a

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Speaker 1: softening of the economy is financial repression. Over with all

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Speaker 1: the enthusiasm we're seeing here at the Pierre Hotel four

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Speaker 1: blocks down, folks were four blocks north of the Trump Tower,

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Speaker 1: we're just out of reach of the insanity. Well, I

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Speaker 1: think that that uh one thing that helps, UM, but

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Speaker 1: it's it's a precarious It can be a precarious situation, right.

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Speaker 1: One thing that helps is that as stock markets rise UM,

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Speaker 1: that's higher net worth, higher financial net worth specifically, and

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Speaker 1: if you think about the upper income household in the

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Speaker 1: US UM, the top income quentile represents of all consumer

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Speaker 1: we're spending. And you can pretty much tie everything that

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Speaker 1: they do two asset prices to the stock market UM.

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Speaker 1: And so you know, to the extent that that we're

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Speaker 1: able to extend those gains or hold on to those gains,

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Speaker 1: that could be a boost to consumer spending. But then

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Speaker 1: when I say precarious, I mean something has to be delivered,

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Speaker 1: right for markets to hang onto these gains, because the

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Speaker 1: gains are built on hope with nothing being delivered. Yet,

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Speaker 1: how long does that hope last? How much time do

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Speaker 1: does Congress, does the president elect have to affect something well. Now,

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Speaker 1: markets are like a two year old, right, they want

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Speaker 1: everything like yesterday. Um. Now, Congress can hit the ground

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Speaker 1: running on January three. There is a an eight year

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Speaker 1: pent up demand for a conservative Republican agenda um that

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Speaker 1: they want to deliver, and they don't have to wait

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Speaker 1: for Donald Trump to be inaugurated on January twenty. If

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Speaker 1: they can hit the ground running, and that can at

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Speaker 1: least move the rhetoric for word um and show that

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Speaker 1: they're moving in the right direction. Um. You know the

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Speaker 1: fact that mid term elections, you know, politicians start to

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Speaker 1: shut down in the fall of seen to get ready

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Speaker 1: for the midterm elections. So that is good news because

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Speaker 1: it pushes the timeline up even further to try and

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Speaker 1: get things done as quickly as possible. You don't want

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Speaker 1: to lose this opportunity of having a Republican sweep with

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Speaker 1: a Republican president. Uh, you know if you're a Republican

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Speaker 1: in Congress, because it doesn't come around that often. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And so there are some powerful incentives for things to

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Speaker 1: get done. The risk there is if things just simply

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Speaker 1: don't move fast enough right off the bat for markets,

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Speaker 1: and there starts to be come down your hands like

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Speaker 1: Mr Trump does when he's certainly what he's talking. There

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Speaker 1: you go, Ellen's got the Trump. You know, the fingers

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Speaker 1: up in the air and this is this is the

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Speaker 1: simbol for bread and drink. So I know which side

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Speaker 1: my glass and my plate is on the tables. Ye

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Speaker 1: give me your confidence, your Trump's certitude on the strength

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Speaker 1: of the American consumer, giving your subpart gdpqual So I

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Speaker 1: think that the Americans consumer is strong. But let's talk

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Speaker 1: about what a strong American consumer looks like. It's not

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Speaker 1: three to four spending, which was debt field spending prior

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Speaker 1: to the financial crisis that was also fueled by a

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Speaker 1: lot of equity withdrawal from homes. You know, you take

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Speaker 1: off that layer, and a strong consumer is a two

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Speaker 1: percent growth rate. Now we've been running above that, and

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Speaker 1: we ran above that in because a lot of that

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Speaker 1: was fueled by falling gas prices moving into seventeen. Though

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Speaker 1: gas prices are not falling below their levels, and that's

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Speaker 1: going to be headwind two households. Um believe it or not.

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Speaker 1: But but I'm I've been constructive on the consumer for

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Speaker 1: a long time. I remain constructive on the consumer UM

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Speaker 1: and I and I like, so where are chief US

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Speaker 1: equity strategist Adam Parker is positioned for the consumer going

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Speaker 1: into twenty well liking credit cards because it's not a

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Speaker 1: retail specific play, but it's a play on households becoming

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Speaker 1: more confident, more income. You know, the tax brigs coming through,

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Speaker 1: tax cuts coming through that fuels credit demand. UM and

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Speaker 1: so credit cards. I like his overweight on credit cards. UM.

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Speaker 1: When we look at where tax dollars are spent, UM,

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Speaker 1: think about stretching out the consumer durable good cycle longer. People.

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Speaker 1: You know, Tom and I talked about this earlier on

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Speaker 1: on UH surveillance UM that UH new autos UM tend

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Speaker 1: to garner those tax dollars. Uh. And so that stretches

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Speaker 1: out that cycle longer because we've seen auto sales slowing,

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Speaker 1: you know, so perhaps the stems that slowing. UM. Furniture

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Speaker 1: and home furnishings is also a category that gets the

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Speaker 1: benefit of tax dollars. You know. So, so UM are

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Speaker 1: our strategists are are overweight specific home builders UM and

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Speaker 1: and home improvement. Right now, housing looks more mid cycle, UM.

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Speaker 1: I mean part of the you know, we've been elliaching

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Speaker 1: over the lack of a more robust recovery and housing

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Speaker 1: for a long time, and much of that is the

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Speaker 1: the onerous regulatory overlay UM. But the good news there

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Speaker 1: is that we're far from overheating, and overheating at the

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Speaker 1: end of the day is really what ends a business

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Speaker 1: expansion UM. And so the fact that we look more

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Speaker 1: mid cycle in housing is encouraging. And b if home

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Speaker 1: price growth continues along this track, we will have finally

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Speaker 1: whittled away negative equity and that's been a big impediment

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Speaker 1: to middle income households. Muhammadlarian just emailed in and says

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Speaker 1: good morning to Ellen Setner, Morgan Stanley dr Alarian's acclaimed

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Speaker 1: phrases those unknown unknowns. What's your unknown unknown for two

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Speaker 1: thousand seventeen. I think it's on what happens on trade?

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Speaker 1: How far do they want to push trade? Yeah, because

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Speaker 1: I think that that the zero sum presidency. Are we

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Speaker 1: going to a neo merk until is America? You know?

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Speaker 1: I think that I think through UM dynamic dynamic estimation

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00:21:56,920 --> 00:22:00,160
Speaker 1: and there's another jargon alert for you, UM. I think

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00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:02,879
Speaker 1: it gives the more conservative Republicans cover in order to

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Speaker 1: vote through some stimulus UM and so We don't think

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Speaker 1: it's a zero sum game, but of course trade policy

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Speaker 1: can make it a zero sum games. Is that ner?

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Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley, thank you so much. You have a great holiday.

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Speaker 1: Remind me what Mr Zuckerberg said today? What did you say?

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Speaker 1: He took off against nickelback? Just like Money Bought is

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Speaker 1: my favorite song off Silver Side Up. But this is

411
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Speaker 1: a song we all remember from fourteen years ago, David.

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Speaker 1: This is a band from Canada. Mr Avril Levine. He's

413
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:47,159
Speaker 1: like an elite singer. Go who you put your trust

414
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:51,400
Speaker 1: in matters. Investors have put their trust in independent registered

415
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:55,120
Speaker 1: investment advisors to the tune of four trillion dollars. Why

416
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:58,640
Speaker 1: they see their roles to serve, not sell. That's why

417
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 1: Charles Schwab is committed to the success over seven thousand

418
00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 1: independent financial advisors who passionately dedicate themselves to helping people

419
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:13,919
Speaker 1: achieve their financial goals. Learn more and find your independent

420
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:21,960
Speaker 1: advisor dot com. Someone that is so valuable to speak

421
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 1: to on America's economic policies Diane Swank. She has a

422
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 1: huge advantage of not being on the island of Benhattan.

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Speaker 1: She has a far more, uh better, far and better

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Speaker 1: perspective than many Diane Swank of DS Economics, Good morning, Diane,

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Speaker 1: Good morning three point five. Is that sustainable? Allen Sander

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Speaker 1: was on earlier with a cautious Morgan Stanley view, Are

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Speaker 1: you living in the land of a Trump three economy

428
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 1: or do you two need to be cautious? Um, I'm cautious.

429
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 1: I think we're going to get a little below two

430
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:58,960
Speaker 1: on the fourth quarter. After that three and a half percent.

431
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,400
Speaker 1: That will bring the europe a little higher. But we're

432
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 1: still talking about one six one seven year, which is

433
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 1: one of the slowest performing years of the expansion. So

434
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:10,920
Speaker 1: this is not anything to you know, write home about.

435
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:14,199
Speaker 1: The good news, as we did regain momentum after almost

436
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,280
Speaker 1: come into a standstill in the first half the year

437
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:18,920
Speaker 1: or so. Really the consumer was behind that, So I

438
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:21,679
Speaker 1: think that's the good artist. We've got some momentum, and

439
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 1: even though it's a little rocky momentum, we do have

440
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 1: momentum carrying us regardless of policy good bet or in

441
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:29,359
Speaker 1: different at least at the start of the year. To

442
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:31,199
Speaker 1: get us into the start of the year, fold in

443
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:36,159
Speaker 1: auto sales dynamics into our subpar year. I remember the

444
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 1: effervescence of eighteen million units did autos let us down

445
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:45,160
Speaker 1: towards a sub two percent statistic. You know, yeah, autos

446
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:47,679
Speaker 1: are peeking out. That's he issue. There's a couple of

447
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 1: things going on in the auto sector. We've got UM

448
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:53,120
Speaker 1: they have been issuing subprime credit for a long time.

449
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 1: They got a waiver after the crisis that helped to

450
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:57,399
Speaker 1: do sales for quite a while. But let's face it,

451
00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 1: there's a payback to giving lower quality at it and

452
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 1: some of it's going bad now. It's one of the

453
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:06,040
Speaker 1: sectors that certainly regulators are watching very closely in terms

454
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:09,959
Speaker 1: of how these sales, these loans are performing. They went

455
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 1: out to sevent eight years on these loans. It was

456
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 1: really you know, a long time. And auto itself, the

457
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 1: vehicles themselves or trucks UM, whether they be light trucks

458
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:21,959
Speaker 1: or autos or actually underwater very quickly on these loans.

459
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:25,360
Speaker 1: So that's one issue, and we've really kind of tapped already,

460
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 1: you know, a very large pool of people replacing vehicles.

461
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:32,560
Speaker 1: So the vehicle sector also with import with UM I'm

462
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 1: sorry used vehicle of prices falling that have remember, raises

463
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,879
Speaker 1: the price for anyone buying a car because their trading

464
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 1: values going down and they've been also offering incredibly deep

465
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 1: discounts and incentives to you know, we've just gotten very

466
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 1: well trained. We wait him out. It's a game of

467
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,640
Speaker 1: chicken both in you know, holiday sales and when you're

468
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 1: buying a vehicle. Dian, do you do you look at

469
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:56,160
Speaker 1: these data differently because of the presidential change over we're

470
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:58,680
Speaker 1: going to have here in January, the prospect of a

471
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:02,480
Speaker 1: new policy, of the prospect perhaps of great change in Washington,

472
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 1: d C. How do you how do you read these

473
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 1: data given that, Well, what we do know is that

474
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:11,120
Speaker 1: we had momentum going into seventeen and you know, even

475
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:14,439
Speaker 1: if no policy, unlike what the stock market had been

476
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 1: betting only pro growth policies, they sort of delineated between

477
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:20,600
Speaker 1: the spectrum of what could happen. On November nine, as

478
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 1: UM President elect Trump accepted his acceptance speech, he talked

479
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 1: about pro growth and unity, and he played down some

480
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 1: of the more damaging trade policies. Immigration policies were now

481
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:34,120
Speaker 1: at population growth the lowest since the depression. We've got

482
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:37,879
Speaker 1: household formation flowing. Yesterday we saw the data and news

483
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:41,639
Speaker 1: on you know, record breaking young adults are living with

484
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:45,399
Speaker 1: their parents. That without immigration means slower growth going forward,

485
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 1: but at least we were set up in the year

486
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:49,960
Speaker 1: to look better no matter what, because we had gotten

487
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:52,399
Speaker 1: rid of some of our excess baggage that we carried

488
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 1: into ten, and that was really an overhang of inventories,

489
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 1: and most notably the oil bust that was already healing.

490
00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 1: The oil and story, which had been a silver lining

491
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,919
Speaker 1: in that investment sector in capital goods, has been coming

492
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:07,440
Speaker 1: back and you're starting to now see that how big

493
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 1: a driver is energy going to be here going into

494
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:12,880
Speaker 1: two that's a great question. I mean, it was an

495
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 1: extraordinary driver, and we had a hundred dollar pre barrel oil.

496
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:20,960
Speaker 1: We were competitive at fifty before the presidency, that the election,

497
00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 1: and now that is one of the few places the

498
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 1: regulation I think the market's overbetting on how quickly it

499
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 1: can ease up and create profits in the financial services sector.

500
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:33,119
Speaker 1: But on the flip side, the regulation in the energy

501
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 1: sector can happen fairly quickly, and um, they're already competitive,

502
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:39,240
Speaker 1: so that will be a I think we're going to

503
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 1: see outsize games again, an investment of course outside games

504
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:46,160
Speaker 1: after having major contraction that's very um, you know, it's

505
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:48,920
Speaker 1: a big turnaround, So it will contribute a lot next year.

506
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 1: That said, it's still not very broad base. It's still

507
00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 1: one sector doesn't employ many people. Doing own the stream

508
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 1: is very important for a couple of key states, but

509
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 1: it's not broad based throughout the economy that we need.

510
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 1: Joining us now without question, one of our most interesting guest,

511
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 1: George Friedman, has issued his two thousand seventeen view, which

512
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:29,960
Speaker 1: links foreign policy in the military and INDUS strategic risk

513
00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:34,680
Speaker 1: is well George Freeman's chairman and founder Geopolitical Futures and David,

514
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 1: why did you start us off here on that nexus

515
00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 1: of America's projection abroad? Yeah, you know, we've we've seen

516
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 1: this play out here since the election, the contours of

517
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 1: Donald Trump's foreign policy beginning to tape ship take shape.

518
00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 1: Worrisome to to some people here, George, Uh, when when

519
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:51,240
Speaker 1: you look at what's going to be the overarching issue

520
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:55,080
Speaker 1: in two thousand seventeen, is it an extension of the

521
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 1: populism we've seen here in two thousand seventeen, Well, it's

522
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:05,800
Speaker 1: certainly going to be an extension of opposition to extreme internationalism. Looks,

523
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 1: since World War Two, we've had a basic fundamental belief,

524
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 1: which is that fixed alliances in free trade are the

525
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 1: foundation of American policy. We've seen that the alliance like

526
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:21,920
Speaker 1: NATO doesn't work extremely well. The our partners don't participate

527
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 1: as they should. And we've also seen that we've been

528
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 1: involved in wars all over the world for fifteen years

529
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 1: that haven't ended well. In terms of free trade. GDP

530
00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,600
Speaker 1: may grow, but it's not well distributed. So you've got

531
00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:42,480
Speaker 1: a worldwide rising against internationalism and reasserting the national interest

532
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 1: and even class interest. Uh Madame Leguard, the head of

533
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 1: the IMP, was a bloomber a couple of weeks ago,

534
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 1: and she spoke about her worry about the globalization that happening.

535
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 1: What's the status of what's the health of globalization at

536
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:56,920
Speaker 1: this point? Do we see a pause on the movement

537
00:29:56,920 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 1: towards more globalization? Well, this is two thousand, Nate. We've

538
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 1: seen a phenomenon. Interdependence is a wonderful thing until it isn't.

539
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 1: So in two thousand aid we saw a virus, a

540
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 1: fairly moderate bubble in the United States insect the entire world,

541
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 1: and eight years later the world is still staggering from

542
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:23,480
Speaker 1: the consequences of that. So the question is how do

543
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 1: you limit viruses from spreading, how do you keep dysfunctions

544
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 1: in some markets from creating long term crisis. So certainly

545
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 1: the idea that unlimited interdependence UH is good for everybody

546
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 1: has been was disproven, and she I am F is

547
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 1: the champion of increasing interdependence, and that seems to know

548
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 1: just pyramid the risks. We focus a lot on how

549
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 1: the US would fare if policy does turn more inward

550
00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 1: and you kind like this in your in your fine report.

551
00:30:57,800 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 1: Here a degree to which there are some countries that

552
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 1: would do better than others if if there was more inwardness,

553
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,680
Speaker 1: if there was less of a globalized well, what are

554
00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 1: some others here? They're wrestling with this and trying to

555
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 1: wait with the prospects of less globalization would be well.

556
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 1: I mean for Europe, for example, it's been eight years

557
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 1: since the failures of two thousand eight. Southern Europe is

558
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 1: in a state of depression, partly because Germany is a

559
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 1: desperate exporter of the German GDP derives from exports UH.

560
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 1: These countries are staggering under the load of a euro

561
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 1: basically designed to serve Germany, and so increased inwardness in

562
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 1: Southern Europe seems to be the only logical way to

563
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 1: try to recover. They have been in depression for eight

564
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 1: years of unemployment rate. You have a single sentence, George,

565
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:02,240
Speaker 1: in your report on Russia and their projection and military

566
00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 1: mike with great fanfare. Is it for real or did

567
00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 1: you capture it perfectly? That it's all bluff, image and bluster,

568
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 1: Which isn't Syria having no strategic importance of Russia, but

569
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 1: it was a wonderful place to make a large impact

570
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 1: with a relatively small force. The Russians sent a little

571
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 1: over a hundred aircraft into the region. We have far

572
00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 1: more than that. They carried out attacks and it made

573
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 1: it appear that they were decisive. Well, then they're quite

574
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 1: a while and they're still struggling to capture Leppo. But

575
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 1: that's not the point. They managed to elevate themselves to

576
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 1: appear of the United States at a time when their

577
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 1: economy is staggering and when their loss of the Ukraine

578
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 1: has never been reversed. So this is a weak country

579
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:55,920
Speaker 1: carrying out a brilliant bluff. To what exid are we

580
00:32:56,000 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 1: culpable in? That is the US culpable in its elevation.

581
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 1: We're all culpable in everything. Uh, the United States wants

582
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 1: to have very nice outcomes. It doesn't have the military

583
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 1: means to impose them. It wants to carry out attacks

584
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 1: and muscles without civilian attacks, civilian debts. The United States

585
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 1: for quite a while has been carrying out a fantasy

586
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:23,200
Speaker 1: foreign policy. But the differences that, unlike the Russians, the

587
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 1: United States tent of the world's economy. It really does

588
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:29,960
Speaker 1: have a global military force, however badly it may have

589
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 1: been used. The Russians really, in objective terms of power projection,

590
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 1: just aren't there. Broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg eleven

591
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 1: freo to Washington, d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve

592
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:49,200
Speaker 1: hundred to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixty to the country,

593
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 1: Sirius XM chad A one nineteen and around the globe

594
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Radio Plus app and Bloomberg dot Com. This

595
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Surveillance and good morning. I'm Caeren Moscow along

596
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:01,720
Speaker 1: with Town Keen and David Gura, and the opening bill

597
00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:04,000
Speaker 1: is brought to you by s C. I have evolving

598
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:08,400
Speaker 1: investor and regulatory demands affected your investment firms operational readiness.

599
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:12,439
Speaker 1: Imagine transforming your business with SCI's global platform at se

600
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:15,879
Speaker 1: i c dot com. Slash Imagine stocks are a little

601
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 1: changed to lower at the open. The S and P

602
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:19,839
Speaker 1: five hundred down a tenth of upper cent or two

603
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:23,320
Speaker 1: points to two sixty two. The Dow Jones Industrial Average

604
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:26,719
Speaker 1: down eight to nineteen thousand, nine hundred twenty nine, and

605
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:30,240
Speaker 1: the NASDAK is little changed at fifty four seven day

606
00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:33,239
Speaker 1: tenure Treasury down seven thirty seconds, the yeld two point

607
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:35,440
Speaker 1: five six percent, that yield on the two year one

608
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:38,880
Speaker 1: point to zero percent. Nimex screwed oil up half percent

609
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:41,640
Speaker 1: or twenty six cents to fifty two seventy four a barrel.

610
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:44,360
Speaker 1: Comex's gold is down to ten percent or two dollars

611
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:47,560
Speaker 1: forty cents to eleven thirty nine ounce, the Euro a

612
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:49,440
Speaker 1: dollar oh four or five eight, and the En one

613
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 1: seventeen point six nine. Tom and David Karen thanks so much.

614
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:57,240
Speaker 1: A power breakfast at the Pier Hotel on Fifth Avenue,

615
00:34:57,239 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 1: New York. It is a lovely, lovely place for day

616
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:02,440
Speaker 1: Girl and I to be, And I got a rounding

617
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:05,319
Speaker 1: criticism on Twitter. I was migrating to the weekend and

618
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:10,839
Speaker 1: I said Friday morning, it feels like it could be

619
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 1: perhaps it is a surveillance correction. James Steele of HSBC

620
00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 1: out on gold. He reaffirms support on gold eleven twenty

621
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:24,240
Speaker 1: two eleven per ounce. Uh. He believes those levels hold

622
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:29,040
Speaker 1: barring significant dollar strength. Why don't you bring us back

623
00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:30,840
Speaker 1: with George George Freeman here he has the founder and

624
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:33,239
Speaker 1: chairman of Geopolitical Futures and ge which we were talking

625
00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 1: about Russia a moment to go in the degree to

626
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:36,920
Speaker 1: which that country has been elevated to a peer status

627
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:40,080
Speaker 1: here with the US. Give us your sense of how

628
00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 1: that relationship changes as if at all here in the

629
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 1: new year. Uh, we have President elect Donald Trump picking

630
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 1: Rex Tillerson to be Secretary of State and making a

631
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:49,640
Speaker 1: lot for better or worse for the fact that he

632
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:53,040
Speaker 1: has had a good relationship with the Russian leadership. Do

633
00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:57,320
Speaker 1: you see the relationship changing here in two thousand seventeen. Well,

634
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:01,799
Speaker 1: we have a basic agreement already on Ukraine's frozen conflict. Uh.

635
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:05,319
Speaker 1: Government is pro Western, the Russians are hold in your

636
00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 1: position that could be formalized. But look, the real Russian

637
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 1: problem is economy. It cannot survive very well with oil

638
00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:16,800
Speaker 1: price as this, and the United States can't do anything

639
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 1: about it. So the issue is not whether they like

640
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 1: each other don't like each other. The issue is what

641
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:27,560
Speaker 1: is the underlying problem facing each country. The American problem

642
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 1: really is disengaging from them at least. The Russian problem

643
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 1: is maintaining their economy. They're relevant to each other, so

644
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:39,120
Speaker 1: they can threaten each other and steal emails and things

645
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:43,680
Speaker 1: like that. But the fundamental questions, Uh, don't turn around personalities.

646
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:46,640
Speaker 1: You know, I'm looking at your note here, looking at

647
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:48,799
Speaker 1: your outlook for the new year, and the words stock

648
00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 1: that stood out to me. You're talking about China and

649
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:57,760
Speaker 1: the presidentiation. You call it a dictatorship pulling no punches there. Uh,

650
00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:00,680
Speaker 1: we talked about the US Russian relationship going forward. How

651
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:02,959
Speaker 1: about the U S. China relationship? What are the next

652
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:05,839
Speaker 1: turns there? We saw the incident last week. We can

653
00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 1: debate the significance of it, the gravity, gravity of it

654
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:10,319
Speaker 1: in the South China. See, how does that relationship change?

655
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 1: You're going forward? Well, the Chinese are still dependent on exports,

656
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:20,040
Speaker 1: and the American market is desperately important to them. Uh,

657
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:22,920
Speaker 1: China is much less important to the United States. We

658
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:25,960
Speaker 1: can substitute for most of the things that they export

659
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:29,800
Speaker 1: to US. Including rare earths. So the Chinese have the weekend.

660
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:34,440
Speaker 1: They're the sellers, were the buyers, and for all of

661
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:38,719
Speaker 1: their posturing, you know, that is the economic truth. The

662
00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:44,160
Speaker 1: military truth is they don't have an amphibious capability able,

663
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 1: for example, to invade I want. They have some ships,

664
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:50,400
Speaker 1: but they don't have the air power. They don't have

665
00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:54,320
Speaker 1: the ability to block the US missiles coming into their ships,

666
00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:58,680
Speaker 1: and they only have two brigades marines. UH and the

667
00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:01,879
Speaker 1: Taiwanese have tend to visions. So there are a lot

668
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:03,920
Speaker 1: of things that the media talks about that they just

669
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:06,400
Speaker 1: can't do. But they're very good at making it appear

670
00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:09,279
Speaker 1: that they're more profitably are Georgia the time we got

671
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:12,239
Speaker 1: left with you. What we talked about in economics is

672
00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:16,319
Speaker 1: a zero sum trade, a zero sum international economics, and

673
00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:20,640
Speaker 1: some would use the phrase neo mercantilism. The Pentagon has

674
00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 1: to deal with a new president who, by all interviews

675
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:27,799
Speaker 1: we do, who seems to be very transactional and very dealmaking.

676
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:32,719
Speaker 1: Is your world so immense that it literally is immune

677
00:38:33,320 --> 00:38:36,800
Speaker 1: from a given president and immune from a new president?

678
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:40,200
Speaker 1: Or is the Pentagon actually thinking about how they're going

679
00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 1: to adapt to a zero sum zeitgeist from a new president.

680
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 1: The Pentagon has built for certain types of wars, certain

681
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:54,400
Speaker 1: types of military operations. It is a vast enterprise. Presidents

682
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:58,320
Speaker 1: hold off this for four years, sometimes eight. The president's

683
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 1: ability to reshape, you know, these vast institutions and make

684
00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:06,440
Speaker 1: them different is limited. So every you know, the different

685
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:09,920
Speaker 1: foreign policy and reality is vast. Policy is what you

686
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:13,280
Speaker 1: wish you could do. Reality is which you encounter. Obama

687
00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:16,880
Speaker 1: realized this. He had wanted to have a completely different presidency.

688
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:21,280
Speaker 1: Uh didn't happen. George W. Bush would never have believed

689
00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:23,560
Speaker 1: that his presidency was going to be ab at war

690
00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 1: in Afghanistan and iraq Um. Reality makes a president, not

691
00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:32,160
Speaker 1: the president making reality. Okay, there's a famous point where

692
00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:35,600
Speaker 1: Woodward Wilson is sitting there and somebody waltzes into the

693
00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:38,080
Speaker 1: room and whispers in his ear, and he changes policy.

694
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 1: How do degrees in about six seconds? Can you fathom

695
00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 1: a president Trump being Wilsonian and being supple and amenable

696
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 1: to policy change. I think all presidents are supple in

697
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:55,760
Speaker 1: making policies. Now, the question is, doesn't really change anything.

698
00:39:56,760 --> 00:39:59,879
Speaker 1: So let's assume that he has decided and it would

699
00:39:59,880 --> 00:40:03,440
Speaker 1: be reasonable thing that he is going to withdrawal from

700
00:40:03,440 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 1: the Middle East. You know he's spoken about that in

701
00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:09,200
Speaker 1: various times and other things. How long does it take

702
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:11,759
Speaker 1: to do that? How complex can it be? How do

703
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:15,439
Speaker 1: you mitigate the consequences? So the problem I have with

704
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:18,840
Speaker 1: all the focus on policy, it's like a focus on

705
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 1: the wishes. I'm not sure the event you're talking about

706
00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:24,279
Speaker 1: with Wilson changing the policy, but it would love to

707
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:27,719
Speaker 1: see whether it had any consequence on small things. Sure,

708
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:31,400
Speaker 1: I mean small things. Uh, it's easy to change. But

709
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 1: on the basic structure of US foreign policy. UH, as

710
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:40,640
Speaker 1: Franklin Roosevelt discovered before World War Two, it took years

711
00:40:40,680 --> 00:40:43,920
Speaker 1: to get this country ready for a change in policy

712
00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:46,399
Speaker 1: and to build the military. Does it Mr Trump? Face?

713
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:50,640
Speaker 1: That's in a day of modern UH communication and tweeting.

714
00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:56,879
Speaker 1: Does he saying face the same constraints? Is FDR. Well,

715
00:40:56,880 --> 00:41:00,760
Speaker 1: he faces real constraints. And it's the Republicans in the Senmates.

716
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:04,200
Speaker 1: The Republics in the Senate are most concerned about really

717
00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 1: being reelected. Trump won by a very narrow minority, actually,

718
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:12,680
Speaker 1: and they're asking the question, my better off supporting Trump

719
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:16,880
Speaker 1: or opposing Trump. It's a very reelected Remember mainstream Republicans

720
00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 1: don't like him, so far more important than Twitter is

721
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:24,920
Speaker 1: the same problem that Woodward Wilson had. He wanted the

722
00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:28,640
Speaker 1: League of Nations, the Senate didn't. He didn't get it.

723
00:41:29,239 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 1: Always remember that the president's is not is probably the

724
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 1: weakest leader of the Euro American world. He has the

725
00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:40,759
Speaker 1: least direct power. Almost everything he wants to do has

726
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:43,480
Speaker 1: to go through Congress, and he's going to have to

727
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:45,920
Speaker 1: build some sort of relationship with Congress. Otherwise he's just

728
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:48,719
Speaker 1: making speeches. George, very quickly here about thirty seconds left

729
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:51,919
Speaker 1: with you, unfortunately too little time. What is the dose,

730
00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 1: the first dose of realism Donald Trump is going to

731
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:55,920
Speaker 1: get when he's in office. What's the what's the first

732
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 1: flash point? Do you think he's going to sing? Well,

733
00:41:58,719 --> 00:42:00,319
Speaker 1: the first slash point he's going to he is that

734
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:03,359
Speaker 1: he's going to have to deal with the mid least issue.

735
00:42:03,360 --> 00:42:07,280
Speaker 1: We've been a war fifteen years. He's attacked our policy.

736
00:42:07,840 --> 00:42:11,000
Speaker 1: He has to find a different one, and it's very difficulty.

737
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:12,560
Speaker 1: Is going to be the Congress is not going to

738
00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:16,160
Speaker 1: necessarily agree with him, and that there are prices for

739
00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:19,200
Speaker 1: everything that he wants to do. Uh, he has a

740
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:21,400
Speaker 1: range of things that he wants to do. None of

741
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:25,400
Speaker 1: them are easy to do, and his staff is new

742
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 1: and they have to learn how to do things. It

743
00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:30,760
Speaker 1: takes a long time for the presidential staff to settle

744
00:42:30,760 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 1: down and do things. But most importantly, what he's going

745
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:35,839
Speaker 1: to face is that for everything he wanted to do,

746
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:38,279
Speaker 1: there's a price. At the price is going to hurt

747
00:42:38,280 --> 00:42:41,359
Speaker 1: some Americans, and undercut of Church Freeman, thank you so much,

748
00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:58,440
Speaker 1: really appreciate it. With his year ahead review. Maybe David,

749
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:01,600
Speaker 1: we ought to talk to somebody who maybe worked with

750
00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:06,400
Speaker 1: Carlos Goodieiras who maybe didn't want a wall across Mexico,

751
00:43:06,600 --> 00:43:09,800
Speaker 1: or maybe worked with powerful senators who looked at President

752
00:43:09,880 --> 00:43:14,520
Speaker 1: ABC de ar Trump and said, really, who would that

753
00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 1: person be that we should talk to. You're talking about

754
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:20,200
Speaker 1: Ron von Jean and vonin company joining us now by phone,

755
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:22,200
Speaker 1: and there is so much political news to talk about. Tom,

756
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:24,600
Speaker 1: We've been remiss not talking about it yet. I want

757
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 1: to get to all of that. We can talk about

758
00:43:26,160 --> 00:43:28,520
Speaker 1: immigration policy, national security policy, and all of that, but

759
00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:31,120
Speaker 1: first let me start with politics. Politics and the news

760
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:33,319
Speaker 1: releases that we've gotten here over the last couple of days.

761
00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:36,440
Speaker 1: President elect Donald Trump naming carlike on special advisor to

762
00:43:36,440 --> 00:43:39,960
Speaker 1: the President. He'll be handling regulatory affairs. Were on great

763
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:41,359
Speaker 1: to speak with you, and let me ask you about

764
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 1: the sentence at the end of that email announcement. Carl

765
00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:47,120
Speaker 1: Icon will be advising the President in his individual capacity

766
00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:49,400
Speaker 1: and will not be serving as a federal employee or

767
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:52,720
Speaker 1: a special government employee, and will not have specific duties.

768
00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:54,719
Speaker 1: A two part question here, what is carl Icon going

769
00:43:54,760 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 1: to be doing UH? And is he somebody who could

770
00:43:57,200 --> 00:43:59,960
Speaker 1: not have been confirmed? Wow, it looks like he's going

771
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 1: to be examining the UM regulations that President Trump said

772
00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:09,400
Speaker 1: he wanted to remove, at least of them that affected

773
00:44:09,440 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 1: American jobs. So he's going to be looking at that

774
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:16,440
Speaker 1: with a microscope and making recommendations to the whiteouts and

775
00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 1: which regulations should go into the trash can. Now. He's

776
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:28,880
Speaker 1: also reportedly UM an advisor interviewing potential UH nominees or

777
00:44:28,960 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 1: our selections for SEC chair and UM that is that's

778
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 1: definitely an unconventional role. It's something but Trump trusts him,

779
00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:42,800
Speaker 1: he has done deals with him in the past, UM

780
00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 1: and as looking to him for advice, So I mean

781
00:44:46,040 --> 00:44:49,480
Speaker 1: he is I don't know if Carlican wanted to actually

782
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:54,200
Speaker 1: serve in the cabinet um, but he would definitely receive

783
00:44:54,280 --> 00:44:58,200
Speaker 1: some scrutiny if he was under the microscope during Center

784
00:44:58,239 --> 00:45:01,840
Speaker 1: confirmation by Democrats. Run you've been in Washington a long time.

785
00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 1: I know that the transition team has shied away from

786
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:07,319
Speaker 1: using the term swamp. Now they're moving on to other

787
00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:11,319
Speaker 1: soaring rhetoric. But let me ask you here just about

788
00:45:11,360 --> 00:45:13,360
Speaker 1: what Diane Swamp brought up with here us here a

789
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:16,960
Speaker 1: couple hours ago. She said that, you know, it is

790
00:45:17,040 --> 00:45:19,480
Speaker 1: a skill to know how to navigate Washington. You bring

791
00:45:19,480 --> 00:45:21,520
Speaker 1: in a special counselor who is not of Washington. How

792
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:24,319
Speaker 1: big of a problem is that is? Is this administration

793
00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:27,360
Speaker 1: beginning to reckon yet, with the fact that the bureaucracy

794
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 1: is byzantine and you may need a guide to get

795
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:33,279
Speaker 1: around it. Well, I think that they have a combination

796
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 1: of insider and outsiders that are beginning to populate the

797
00:45:37,080 --> 00:45:40,640
Speaker 1: White House, in the cabinet um. You know, the voters

798
00:45:40,680 --> 00:45:43,480
Speaker 1: sent him, sent Trump to Washington to take a wrecking

799
00:45:43,480 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 1: ball to the place, and a lot of the secretaries

800
00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:49,439
Speaker 1: being named, you know, are going to you know, are

801
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:54,160
Speaker 1: going to turn up turn those cabinets and Seo's upside down. UM.

802
00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:57,239
Speaker 1: And while you do need to have a good sense

803
00:45:57,280 --> 00:45:59,600
Speaker 1: of how Washington works to understand the levels of power,

804
00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:02,600
Speaker 1: at the same time, they don't want they also want

805
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:05,920
Speaker 1: some fresh fresh bases from the outside coming into to

806
00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:08,359
Speaker 1: shake things out. Right. But I particularly go to your

807
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:12,640
Speaker 1: service to Senator A Lot. Trent Lot, tell me here

808
00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:15,480
Speaker 1: what the body language and day to day technical response

809
00:46:15,520 --> 00:46:20,040
Speaker 1: will be of Senate leadership. Every interview we do says

810
00:46:20,080 --> 00:46:23,759
Speaker 1: they're the focal point. Can he be an executive president

811
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:26,319
Speaker 1: or does he actually have to get along with the

812
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:29,360
Speaker 1: Trent Lots of two thousand eighteen. Well, I'll tell you

813
00:46:29,360 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 1: what I mean. You know, the fact that Republicans don't

814
00:46:31,640 --> 00:46:35,640
Speaker 1: have sixty votes in the Senate means that, um, there's

815
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:37,840
Speaker 1: going to need to be some compromises. In the Senate

816
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:40,520
Speaker 1: is really the backstop, the backlog where everything is going

817
00:46:40,560 --> 00:46:43,399
Speaker 1: to start piling up. So Trump is going to need

818
00:46:43,480 --> 00:46:48,160
Speaker 1: those guys. I think also, though the Republican majority owes

819
00:46:48,239 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 1: its majority to Donald Trump, UM in a number of

820
00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:55,440
Speaker 1: those states, like you know, like Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania,

821
00:46:55,480 --> 00:46:58,200
Speaker 1: for example, UM, where everyone thought he was going to lose.

822
00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:01,160
Speaker 1: So I think it leaves for the first hundred days,

823
00:47:01,160 --> 00:47:03,719
Speaker 1: you're going to see everyone trying to get along as

824
00:47:03,800 --> 00:47:08,640
Speaker 1: much as possible and um uh and and I and I.

825
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:11,080
Speaker 1: But you know, like any relationship, it's going to have

826
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:14,120
Speaker 1: some turbulence. Uh. I don't expect the turbulence over the

827
00:47:14,160 --> 00:47:16,160
Speaker 1: next couple of years. But I'm wondering the degree to

828
00:47:16,239 --> 00:47:19,200
Speaker 1: which Donald Trump's election has changed the way politics gets

829
00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:22,759
Speaker 1: done in Washington. Already, there's word here that Kelly Ann

830
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:24,680
Speaker 1: Conway is going to be moving to town to be

831
00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:27,280
Speaker 1: a counselor to the president. You're getting a new neighbor,

832
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:30,400
Speaker 1: the Bunging company getting a new neighbor, Corey Lewandowski trading

833
00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:32,439
Speaker 1: New Hampshire for Washington, d C. He's planning to set

834
00:47:32,480 --> 00:47:36,240
Speaker 1: up a lodging shop a block away from the White House.

835
00:47:36,680 --> 00:47:39,120
Speaker 1: Have other politicians taken note? In other words, is the

836
00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:41,919
Speaker 1: brand of politics that Donald Trump espouses something that other

837
00:47:41,960 --> 00:47:45,480
Speaker 1: politicians are going to try to take on as their own. Well,

838
00:47:45,520 --> 00:47:47,400
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's just that's a really good question,

839
00:47:47,400 --> 00:47:51,120
Speaker 1: because Donald Trump is really a bottle to captured lightning

840
00:47:51,160 --> 00:47:54,960
Speaker 1: the bottle on populism. U. Now, uh, you know, you

841
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:57,920
Speaker 1: had Bernie Sanders and the leaps. It was extremely popular too.

842
00:47:58,480 --> 00:48:01,960
Speaker 1: Um So there are pots believe that politicians will emerge

843
00:48:02,000 --> 00:48:05,279
Speaker 1: out of nowhere trying to reflect the Trump brand. He is,

844
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:09,000
Speaker 1: though of forced assure. It's hard to see how someone

845
00:48:09,040 --> 00:48:13,160
Speaker 1: could replicate it, but you could potentially see people understanding

846
00:48:13,200 --> 00:48:15,439
Speaker 1: that there's a new way to campaign and that people

847
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:18,360
Speaker 1: are both fed up with us with complete you know,

848
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 1: with with with the package they've been seeing over the

849
00:48:21,239 --> 00:48:25,400
Speaker 1: last you know, twenty years. Ron greatly appreciate the perspective someone.

850
00:48:25,440 --> 00:48:27,880
Speaker 1: I think we'll be talking to you because we staggered

851
00:48:28,040 --> 00:48:32,319
Speaker 1: January twenty Ron Bonjeane working with selected Republicans over the

852
00:48:32,320 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 1: many years from Washington. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg

853
00:48:44,200 --> 00:48:49,680
Speaker 1: Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on iTunes, SoundCloud,

854
00:48:50,120 --> 00:48:54,360
Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm out on Twitter

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Speaker 1: at Tom Keene. David Gura is at David Gura. Before

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Speaker 1: the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: Who you put your trust in matters. Investors have put

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Speaker 1: their trust and independent registered investment advisors to the two

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Speaker 1: and four trillion dollars. Why learn more and find your

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Speaker 1: independent advisor dot com