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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 1: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 1: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 1: dot com. We can go to Venezuela. There's a lot

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Speaker 1: actually going on there. Let's go and put d one

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Speaker 1: up here on the screen. This is important from Secretary

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Speaker 1: Marco Rubio. There had been a lull currently in Venezuela,

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Speaker 1: and just from basically from what I know, here's what

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Speaker 1: I can share. Rubio is still hell bound on regime

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Speaker 1: change now. What he did very recently was smart on

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Speaker 1: his plan to try and do this because Trump has

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Speaker 1: shifted current strikes away from the Caribbean and to the

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Speaker 1: Eastern Pacific. What he has done is they are now

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Speaker 1: going to designate the so called Cartel de las Solos

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Speaker 1: as a foreign terrorist organization, headed, as he says, by

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Speaker 1: the illegitimate Nicholas Maduro. The group has corrupted the institutions

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Speaker 1: of the Venezuelan government, is responsible for terrorist violence conducted

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Speaker 1: by and with other designated ftos, for trucking drugs in

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Speaker 1: the United States and with Europe. This is an important

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Speaker 1: legal designation for potential strikes on the regime itself because

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Speaker 1: of a twenty twenty indictment which alleges that Maduro is

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Speaker 1: the head of Cartel de los Solo. So by designating

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Speaker 1: it a FTO, it gives them the potential legal authority

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Speaker 1: to strike Maduro himself and to have regime change. Now.

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Speaker 1: At the same time, let's be clear, while Rubio and

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Speaker 1: all of them are pushing this, Trump is also being

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Speaker 1: presented with overtures from Maduro, who wants to negotiate with him.

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Speaker 1: And here's what he said whenever he was confronted about

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Speaker 1: potential talks with Maduro just yesterday in the Oval office,

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Speaker 1: to take a listen.

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Speaker 3: In these talks with Maduro, is there anything that he

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Speaker 3: could say or do that would let allow you to

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Speaker 3: feel like he could stay with your support. Is there

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Speaker 3: anything that he could say that you would be okay?

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Speaker 4: You can say it's hard to say that, you know,

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Speaker 4: the question is a little bit tricky. I don't think

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Speaker 4: it was meant to be tricky. It's just said, Look,

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Speaker 4: he's done tremendous damage to our country, primarily because of drugs,

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Speaker 4: but really because we have that problem with other countries too,

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Speaker 4: but more than any other country. The release of prisoners

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Speaker 4: into our country has been a disaster. He's emptying his heels.

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Speaker 4: Others have done that also. He has not been good

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Speaker 4: to the United States. So we'll see what happens at

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Speaker 4: a certain period of time. I'll be talking to.

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Speaker 1: So always like, well, you know, maybe you will talk

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Speaker 1: to him. Maduro has done tremendous damage, but I will

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Speaker 1: be talking to him. Trump at this point is completely torn,

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Speaker 1: and this is the product of the part. This is

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Speaker 1: the Rubio problem that I've been flagging from beginning, because

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Speaker 1: he is the National Security Advisor, and he's a Secretary

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Speaker 1: of State, which means he totally controls the interagency process

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Speaker 1: and the stuff that gets to Trump and the President's desk.

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Speaker 1: In terms of the level of options there's never been

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Speaker 1: before that level of control except for Henry Kissinger under

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Speaker 1: Richard Nixon and with Gerald Ford, and Ford eventually is

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Speaker 1: fed up with that. Now. The reason why this is

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Speaker 1: important is that Maduro there is a lot of stuff

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Speaker 1: from behind the scenes, who has tried to make overtures

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Speaker 1: to Trump in the first place. Who Maduro doesn't trust

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Speaker 1: Rubio to relay any of his messages, so he has

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Speaker 1: to try to go through outside channel. Yeah, he's totally

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Speaker 1: right to do that, but what he's trying to do

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Speaker 1: is go through outside channels to reach Donald Trump. Now

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Speaker 1: they have this interlocutor with Rick Cornell, who I believe

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Speaker 1: is one of the best members of the administration. But

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Speaker 1: the problem is is that with the teragency warfare, you

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Speaker 1: just never know how this is all going to play out,

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Speaker 1: and Trump's own mind at the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: the most convincing argument that's been made to Trump is that, guys,

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Speaker 1: you don't have a plan and this is going to

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Speaker 1: be just like Libya. But with every step that moves forward,

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Speaker 1: from the FTO designation to the strikes and more, eventually

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Speaker 1: your hand may be forced. And who knows what Maduro

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Speaker 1: is going to do. Let's give the guy. I'm not

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Speaker 1: a Maduro fan, just everybody knows, but we can rationally

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Speaker 1: view he's got. You know, the biggest military force in

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Speaker 1: the Caribbeans is fucking Cuban Myscal crisis out there. They've

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Speaker 1: got strikes in the Caribbean. You got the US government

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Speaker 1: with a bounty on your head. I mean, a less

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Speaker 1: rational person would go berserk and would declare war. He's

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Speaker 1: not doing that because he just wants to survive. He

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Speaker 1: doesn't care about Russia, he doesn't care about China. He

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Speaker 1: wants to sell us oil and gold and just tell

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Speaker 1: us to go away. Like at the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: he wants to die in his own bed, rich, happy

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Speaker 1: and unafraid. That's what North Korea wants. That's what most

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Speaker 1: of these people that were told are so spooky and

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Speaker 1: horrible want. They're just pretty rational actors at the end

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Speaker 1: of the day. So when it comes to negotiation, the

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Speaker 1: deal on the table is a good one. He's willing

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Speaker 1: to sell us a shit ton of oil and gold

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Speaker 1: and minerals and specifically to deprioritize Russia and China. If

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Speaker 1: that's what we want, why would we not take that?

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Speaker 1: But Trump has got all this stuff in his ear

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Speaker 1: from Rubio and others, and they're making all kinds of

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Speaker 1: BS arguments. The latest one is that if we overthrow Maduro,

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Speaker 1: then the new government will be even more friendly to

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Speaker 1: us on terms of oil and of gold, which makes

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Speaker 1: no sense because why would you have to overthrow somebody

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Speaker 1: when you've got a good deal already that's on the

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Speaker 1: table with you, so you know, and you know at

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Speaker 1: this point the Venezuelan population. This is the other thing

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Speaker 1: I've learned in terms you know, everyone's like, oh, you know,

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Speaker 1: you're you're a Maduro simp or whatever. I'm not saying

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Speaker 1: he's popular, but in this instance, any leader like let's

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Speaker 1: say Maria Machado who's being directly propped up by the

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Speaker 1: United States of America and is seen as endorsing strikes

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Speaker 1: on her own countrymen, what legitimate you know, what legitimate

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Speaker 1: power are you gonna have with those people? Exactly? They're

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Speaker 1: gonna say, you're a treat deliber right, you're a tool

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Speaker 1: of the United States. And yeah, I don't like Maduro,

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Speaker 1: but I don't want some CIA backed literally USAID leader

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Speaker 1: to come in and to usurp my country. There's elements

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Speaker 1: of nationalism here, which are very important. The dynamics are

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Speaker 1: still very scary and they're very dangerous. So yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: things are not good right now.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's check in with the New York Times Opinions

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Speaker 2: check out to see what sort of rational analysis they're

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Speaker 2: offering there. This is the next element. We've got a

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Speaker 2: real banger here from Brett Stevens, the case for overthrowing Maduro.

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Speaker 2: Let me just read you a portion of this just

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Speaker 2: to show you how stupid it is. So his first

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Speaker 2: argument he makes is he says, let's take it point

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Speaker 2: by point. Is there a vital American interest at stake?

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Speaker 2: And he says there is, and it's not just the

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Speaker 2: one the administration keeps talking about drugs, which we've talked

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Speaker 2: a lot about how they are not actually a significant

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Speaker 2: contributor in terms of the drug problem we have.

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Speaker 5: In the US.

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Speaker 2: But he goes on to say the larger challenge posed

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Speaker 2: by Maduro's regime is that it is both an importer

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Speaker 2: and exporder of instability. An importer because the regime's close

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Speaker 2: economic and strategic ties to China, Russia, and Iran give

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Speaker 2: America's enemies a significant fitthold in Americas. One that Tehran

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Speaker 2: reportedly could use for the production of Kamakazi drones. So

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Speaker 2: we've got the whole axis of evil type language. Ooh,

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Speaker 2: the bad guys like them, So we can't have that

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Speaker 2: an exporterer. Because the regime's catastrophic misgovernance has generated a

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Speaker 2: mass exodus of refugees and migrants nearly eight millions so far,

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Speaker 2: with ruinous results around the hemisphere. Both trends will continue

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Speaker 2: for as long as the regime remains in power. Now,

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Speaker 2: you might also you might also add that the sanctions

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Speaker 2: that this administration and others have levied against this regime

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Speaker 2: have also contributed to that economic collapse and migration. You

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Speaker 2: might also ask yourself the question, well, what happens if

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Speaker 2: this administration, the Maduro administration falls, and then you think

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Speaker 2: that's just going to be, you know, pretty innate, and

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Speaker 2: then everyone's going to want to stay at home in Venezuela.

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Speaker 2: The much more likely outcome is Libya. The much more

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Speaker 2: likely outcome is that you have effectively a failed state

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Speaker 2: where things get even more catastrophically violent, unstable, economically disastrous,

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Speaker 2: and you have even more people who leave their own

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Speaker 2: home country, which is a very difficult thing for those

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Speaker 2: individuals and obviously destabilizing for the countries in the region,

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Speaker 2: and something that you know, Republicans have been very against

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Speaker 2: accepting any of these migrants to come to our borders,

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Speaker 2: at least under the Trump administration. Two point zero. So

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Speaker 2: just completely idiotic. Doesn't think through at all. Okay, So

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Speaker 2: what happens if we do intervene and we take out Maduro?

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Speaker 2: How is that going to go for people? Based on

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Speaker 2: our extensive experience just over the past, let's say, twenty

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Speaker 2: years in how that has gone when we've gone in

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Speaker 2: and tried to do a regime change operation? You tell me,

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Speaker 2: has that led to peace and stability? Has that led

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Speaker 2: to a lessening of chaos in every single instance? The

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Speaker 2: answer is absolutely not. Has been complete and utter disaster

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Speaker 2: first and foremost for the people of those countries.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, look, the arguments fall part on any

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Speaker 1: basic scrutiny, but they still exist. That's the problem. I mean,

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Speaker 1: put the next one, please up on the screen. We

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Speaker 1: still have an immense amount of military assets which are

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Speaker 1: in Venezuela. The all of these, you know, are potential strikes.

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Speaker 1: You've got the aircraft carrier that just came on its way,

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Speaker 1: You've got multiple US warships. You've got drones and planes

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Speaker 1: flying around in the Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific just

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Speaker 1: striking random boats where they've got the legal justification that

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Speaker 1: you're talking about. Let's go to D six or D

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Speaker 1: five please, just to show you all, some military personnel

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Speaker 1: are now seeking legal advice on whether these missions are

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Speaker 1: even lawful. Apparently all of this relies on some secret

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Speaker 1: memo which is inside of the White House Council's office

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Speaker 1: where they've determined the legality of the strike. Just so

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Speaker 1: if you're too young to remember, this is what the

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Speaker 1: Bush administration was like, and there you can go watch.

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Speaker 1: Yeah you remember. Yeah, there's actually some great what do

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Speaker 1: they call the frontline documentary on PBS. If you guys

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Speaker 1: are interested, you can go watch them on YouTube. I

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Speaker 1: think there's these great frontline documentaries specifically about these secret memos,

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Speaker 1: like with torture or warrantless spying with the NSA where somebody,

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Speaker 1: you know, they go to some guy's hospital room to

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Speaker 1: try and get him to reauthorize spying. And I mean,

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Speaker 1: the drama of it all usually comes back to the

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Speaker 1: fact that these military personnel were taken out carrying out

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Speaker 1: these strikes, you know what they're afraid of. They're like, yo,

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Speaker 1: we could be prosecuted if somebody ever comes after us.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, I don't think that they should

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Speaker 1: be because the people who are making the decisions and

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Speaker 1: ordering them to what are they supposed to do? You know,

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Speaker 1: they're caught between a rock and a hard place. The president,

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Speaker 1: the SECTIF is telling them go do something. The sec

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Speaker 1: DEFF and the President the ones who are trying to

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Speaker 1: cover themselves with all of these legal memos and then

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Speaker 1: briefing them to Congress. But even Congress is not buying

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Speaker 1: a lot of their bs on this issue. So look

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Speaker 1: all of this. By the way, there was even supposed

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Speaker 1: to be a descent vote. Remember there was actually a

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Speaker 1: War Powers Resolution potential descent, which they barely won in

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Speaker 1: the US Senate. The only reason that they won is

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Speaker 1: because the administration was leaking that actually they had backed

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Speaker 1: off of military options when it came to Venezuela. But

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Speaker 1: as you can see with the designation, they wanted to

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Speaker 1: keep the optionality alive. And of course that's where Congress

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Speaker 1: just completely abdicates their responsibilities too from the Senate.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, the whole thing, why you would trust these

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Speaker 2: people at all bad, you know. And on the service

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Speaker 2: members seeking outside council, it's pretty interesting if you listen

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Speaker 2: to or read this piece.

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Speaker 5: So they say it's it's mostly.

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Speaker 2: Not the more junior level, it's mostly the higher level.

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Speaker 2: Because the junior level service members are they trust the process.

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Speaker 2: They're like, if they're telling me to do this, I'm

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Speaker 2: sure it's gone through the proper channels, it must be lawful.

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Speaker 2: But the more senior people are like, I've been around

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Speaker 2: the block. I don't trust these people like I. Also,

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Speaker 2: by the way, they dismissed a bunch of the jag

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Speaker 2: the lawyers, internal lawyers that they thought would go against

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Speaker 2: some of the more aggressive and illegal things that they're doing.

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Speaker 2: So they're the ones predominantly who are seeking this outside council.

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Speaker 2: And to your point about those secret memos that they've

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Speaker 2: used for the legal justification, I think it was the

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Speaker 2: New York Times that did do some reporting on that.

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Speaker 2: They were able to see those memos and or learn

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Speaker 2: about those memos, and what they found is that they

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Speaker 2: rely not on the actual facts of you know, the

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Speaker 2: realities of the drug trade and the minimal involvement, the

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Speaker 2: lack of direct involvement and Madure whatever. They rely on

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Speaker 2: the President and other administration officials' statements of their characterization

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Speaker 2: of Maduro and drug trafficking, so they're not even using

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Speaker 2: their own analysis.

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Speaker 5: They're using just.

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Speaker 2: The lies and the statements of like Trump as their

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Speaker 2: justification for these unbelievably like insane actions. And last one

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Speaker 2: this is I guess maybe a little heartening could put

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Speaker 2: this up on the screen. Wasn't sure how the American

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Speaker 2: people would feel if they would just buy the writer

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Speaker 2: at cook line and thinker of like, we're getting the

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Speaker 2: bad guys, let's go. But only twenty nine percent of

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Speaker 2: Americans support the US military killing these what they describe

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Speaker 2: as drug suspects. You know, I mean we some of them,

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Speaker 2: maybe some of them may not be. We don't really know.

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Speaker 2: We offered no evidence of such thing. But you have

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Speaker 2: a majority oppose it and just twenty nine percent who

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Speaker 2: say they actively support it, and the rest are unsure.

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Speaker 2: So you know, got to give some credits to the

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Speaker 2: American people here that they are they're they're not buying

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Speaker 2: all this bullshit.

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Speaker 1: No they're not buying it. But it's one of those

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Speaker 1: where does it matter at this point? You know, if

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Speaker 1: your own Congress basically abdicates responsibility, and then the administration

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Speaker 1: and just making up shit, you know inside whatever they

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Speaker 1: that's always you know, this is the scary part about

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Speaker 1: the government that a lot of people don't remember. And

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Speaker 1: you know, forgive the tangent, but do you remember the

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Speaker 1: on moral Alwicky strike. The Barack Obama in his White

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Speaker 1: House were like, well, this guy's an American citizen, we

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Speaker 1: want to kill him abroad. Well, technically he needs due process,

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Speaker 1: So they just invented this entire fake legal court. The

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Speaker 1: executive branch technically gave him due process, and then the

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Speaker 1: White House itself goes, yeah, we're allowed to kill him now.

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Speaker 1: And then we killed him and we killed a son

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Speaker 1: as well as a bunch of other people in Yemen.

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Speaker 1: They can just do whatever they want. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: you can trust it up if they want. But at

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Speaker 1: the end of the day, like when you start to

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Speaker 1: really break all this stuff down, this is why who

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Speaker 1: you elect, and not even just who you elect matters,

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Speaker 1: but people need to remember like where on foreign policy

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Speaker 1: we effectively have a king, and especially in the War

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Speaker 1: on Terror era, these congressmen they want the reason why

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Speaker 1: that they don't dissent from the administration. Is even if

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Speaker 1: they don't trust them, if things go bad, they don't

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Speaker 1: want their hands dirty. Because Iraq took so many of

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Speaker 1: these different congressmen out in the races, they never want

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Speaker 1: to actually vote on anything foreign policy related in the

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Speaker 1: event they could ever come back to bite them politically.

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Speaker 1: Obviously cowardice, but you know that's the unfortunate reality of

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Speaker 1: where we are right now. Okay, let's move to property tax.

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Speaker 1: On the heels of Texas voters deciding to embrace lower

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Speaker 1: property taxes and lower school taxes for boomers, Florida has

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Speaker 1: decided to try and one up them. Governor Ron DeSantis

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Speaker 1: now fully embracing erasing all property taxes for so called

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Speaker 1: homestead owners in the state of Florida, with one of

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Speaker 1: the oldest populations in the entire United States. Here is

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Speaker 1: the governor's argument.

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Speaker 6: From the property tax situation. It's very important given how

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Speaker 6: that's pinched so many homeowners, particularly our senior citizens, who

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Speaker 6: have their homes paid off, and they bought it thirty

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Speaker 6: years ago for a certain amount. Now they're being told

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Speaker 6: it's worth so much more and they have to pony

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Speaker 6: up more and more money. It's almost like they have

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Speaker 6: to pay rent to the government just to be able

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Speaker 6: to enjoy their property, and that's wrong and we need

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Speaker 6: to do something about it.

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Speaker 1: We are going to do something about it. Okay, yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: you're right. By the way. Ever since I've engaged in

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Speaker 1: a jihad against this, Ron DeSantis is now on Twitter

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Speaker 1: implying saying that I'm being paid as an actor to

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Speaker 1: dissent on who's paying me. Miami Dade County, the School

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Speaker 1: District of Miami is like, please, sir, will you please

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Speaker 1: post on behalf of the children of Flora. I'm doing

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Speaker 1: this out of the goodness of my own heart, Okay,

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Speaker 1: because I care about the young people in the state

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Speaker 1: of Florida. And people like DeSantis and Greg Abbott love

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Speaker 1: to go around and say, oh, look at all these

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Speaker 1: families that are moving here to Florida. And at the

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Speaker 1: same time, what's happening. They're enacting policy which will be

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Speaker 1: a massive giveaway to the elderly. Now, their argument is, actually,

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Speaker 1: we already have property tax for old people, so this

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Speaker 1: would be directly helpful to the young. Here's the deal, guys,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't take a genius to do just a tiny

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Speaker 1: little bit of research into where does all this property

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Speaker 1: tax dollars go. Let's go ahead and put let's put

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Speaker 1: this up here. Please e four up on screen. Shall

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Speaker 1: we deal with the world of numbers and actual funding.

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Speaker 1: So here we go. This is the Florida Policy Institute.

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Speaker 1: Eighteen point five billion dollar is currently at stake for

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Speaker 1: Florida counties. Now, the actual question here is about this

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Speaker 1: so called homestead tax property tax revenue. That's seven point

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Speaker 1: eight billion for counties, seven point seven billion dollars for

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Speaker 1: school districts. Let's go through the counties where a homestead

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Speaker 1: property tax revenue is the greatest share of the total

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Speaker 1: government revenue. You've got multiple counties including Nasau, Saint John's,

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Speaker 1: Saint Lucie, and Miami Dade would lose most revenue in

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Speaker 1: dollars from an exemption of homesteads from the property tax.

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Speaker 1: Their basic argument is that by doing away with this

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Speaker 1: will shift the tax burden to the snow birds and

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Speaker 1: the second home owners, and this will make it so

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Speaker 1: the quote young families will not have to pay. Here's

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Speaker 1: the deal. Ultimately, property tax is literally one of the

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Speaker 1: least distortionary taxes that exists in the United States. Second,

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Speaker 1: people say you know how libertarians always like taxationist theft

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Speaker 1: guys tax, property tax, and land tax, and specifically a

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Speaker 1: general property tax has been around since before the Republic

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Speaker 1: was even founded. Its income tax, capital game tax, and

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Speaker 1: all these other taxes which are more novel inventions. Property

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Speaker 1: tax is the most American tax that exists that goes

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Speaker 1: all the way back to again even before the founding.

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Speaker 1: The reason why is and again this is even a

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Speaker 1: Republican thing if you think about it. When we pay

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Speaker 1: income tax, where's that shit going? Do we really know?

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Speaker 1: Venezuela regime change, Israel, weapons, you know, some bullshit somebody else, Boomers, Medicare,

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Speaker 1: social Security, something like that. When you pay property tax,

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Speaker 1: you literally know where it is going into your locality,

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Speaker 1: your community and schools. This entire thing is being sold

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Speaker 1: as a way to shift the tax burden off of

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Speaker 1: young people. If you're going to lose eighteen and a

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Speaker 1: half billion dollars in the state of Florida. And again,

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Speaker 1: if you break it down, there are multiple counties where

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Speaker 1: the homestead property tax specifically makes up some fifty one

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Speaker 1: percent of the overall dollars that flow in and as

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Speaker 1: I said, almost half of the dollars go towards the

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Speaker 1: school district. Who is going to pay for the damn schools?

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Speaker 1: Do you know who's going to pay for the damn schools?

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Speaker 1: Everybody else? Now they're saying, well, of course we can't

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Speaker 1: raise income tax. No one's saying that you're gonna raising

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Speaker 1: compests because you don't have one. So what else do

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Speaker 1: you have? You only have two options in a state

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Speaker 1: like Florida. You're gonna have to rail safe sales tax

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Speaker 1: and you're gonna have to bilk everybody who tries to

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Speaker 1: come down to go to Disney World. Have you ever

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Speaker 1: stayed in a Florida hotel? You know, if you have,

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Speaker 1: you know, you can look at your bill and there

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Speaker 1: literally is like an entire section of your bill where

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Speaker 1: it's a non Florida resident tax. That's how they fund

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Speaker 1: most of their state. So they're actually trying to pass

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Speaker 1: the burden off to all the tourists who come down

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Speaker 1: to their state, family that wants to go to Disney

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Speaker 1: World or Orlando, Harry Potter or whatever, you know, passing through

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Speaker 1: their airport crews. They're builking everybody else to try and

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Speaker 1: pay for their stuff. But let me just you know,

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Speaker 1: and find that's voluntary. People voluntarily go down there at

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Speaker 1: the end of the day. One of the reasons why

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Speaker 1: property tax in particular is important, and this is not popular,

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Speaker 1: I'll just admit it straight up, is yes, you know,

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Speaker 1: the seniors. What they say is seen years unquote, fixed

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Speaker 1: income should not have to continue to pay into the system.

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Speaker 1: They shouldn't. They've paid their dues, so they shouldn't have

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Speaker 1: to pay for school tax Now let's again just think

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Speaker 1: about that older silent generation. They paid for the boomers

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Speaker 1: children's school taxes whenever they were going to school. But second,

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Speaker 1: we all live in a collective society. We pay for

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Speaker 1: their Medicare, for their dialysis, for their Social Security checks,

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Speaker 1: by the way, vastly more that they receive than they

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Speaker 1: ever paid into the system. And in return, we expect

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Speaker 1: that they also pay into let's say, property taxes, school taxes,

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Speaker 1: for the societal compact that we're all in this together.

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Speaker 1: Oh and by the way, nine to one one ambulance services,

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Speaker 1: city services, and others. Who anyone want to tell me

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Speaker 1: which age group vastly consumes a lot of those public services,

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Speaker 1: right right of course, So at the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: somebody has got to pay. Someone has to pay for cops,

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Speaker 1: for ambulances, for schools, which is what the vast portion

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Speaker 1: of a lot of this is. There's only one way

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Speaker 1: if you get rid of property tax to do that

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Speaker 1: is to shift to a highly regressive sales tax and

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Speaker 1: to a tourist tax, which, look, maybe that will work

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Speaker 1: in Florida, and ultimately this is up to Florida residents.

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Speaker 1: You guys decide your own destiny, and Texans have already

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Speaker 1: you know, my own home state has decided to do this.

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Speaker 1: But I think this is highly dangerous because this is

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Speaker 1: now going to catch on in every red state in

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Speaker 1: the country. Many of these red states are places where

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Speaker 1: people who are fleeing New York City, California or whatever,

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Speaker 1: are coming for a more affordable way of life. This

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Speaker 1: is being sold as, oh, it's going to reduce your

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Speaker 1: overall tax burden. Again, it will come back to bite

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Speaker 1: you no matter which way you look at it. Okay,

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Speaker 1: it's coming for you, no matter what. Somebody has got

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Speaker 1: to pay. Ultimately for this, what this net result would

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Speaker 1: do would push it off to other people, and they

431
00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:52,200
Speaker 1: would try in the form of a sales tax, and

432
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:55,640
Speaker 1: it locks people into housing stock. One of the most

433
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 1: common arguments from a lot of these people is like, oh, well,

434
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:01,879
Speaker 1: you know the property. I bought this house in nineteen

435
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:04,520
Speaker 1: seventy five and since then, poor me, it's gone up

436
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 1: to two point five million dollars and now I can't

437
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:09,480
Speaker 1: afford the property tax payment. Now here's the thing, and that,

438
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:12,159
Speaker 1: for some reason, we're supposed to feel sympathy only for

439
00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:14,520
Speaker 1: the senior. How many people do you and I know

440
00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 1: who are young, who's rent has gone up by twenty

441
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 1: five or thirty percent? Does anybody do anything for that person? Right?

442
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:23,840
Speaker 1: Does anybody care? Hey? Oh what does Ben Shapiro say? Move?

443
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 4: Oh?

444
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 1: Sorry, that's the free market. And by the way, they

445
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 1: don't even have equity in their rental property. These people

446
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:33,679
Speaker 1: are sitting on millions of dollars of unrealized gays, not

447
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:37,600
Speaker 1: to mention their booming stock portfolio. So I'm supposed to

448
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 1: feel like deep sympathy because you're sitting on a multimillion

449
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:42,600
Speaker 1: dollar property which you can sell, by the way, if

450
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 1: you wanted to it, because you can't keep up with

451
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 1: the burden. And then finally, fixed income. This thing is bullshit.

452
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 1: The idea to quote seniors on fixed income they get

453
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 1: social Security is literally pegged to inflation. Now, I'm not

454
00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,919
Speaker 1: saying that the COLA, the cost of living adjustment is

455
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:03,600
Speaker 1: true inflation or any of that. Does anybody else in

456
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 1: the world get automatic adjustments in their income. For a

457
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 1: young person who's rent went up by thirty percent, they

458
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 1: don't get their requisite you know, seven eight percent or

459
00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:15,720
Speaker 1: whatever automatic paymump. They probably get either a decrease or

460
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:18,639
Speaker 1: they have to do the humiliating ritual, you know in

461
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,199
Speaker 1: a big corporation of being like, hey, yeah, I know

462
00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:23,720
Speaker 1: it's my review time, but I would really like to

463
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,879
Speaker 1: get a X percent increase in my ry and they're like, oh, sorry,

464
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:28,720
Speaker 1: actually we can't do it this year. And what do

465
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 1: you do? You just have to eat it. So everybody

466
00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 1: else is stuck with personal responsibility. But supposedly this whole

467
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:37,439
Speaker 1: fixed income thing, even though it's not fixed, it's literally

468
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:40,960
Speaker 1: inflation adjusted and now tax free. As a result of

469
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:43,680
Speaker 1: the big beautiful bill, eighty eight percent of Social Security

470
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 1: recipients will not pay a single dollar in federal income

471
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:48,480
Speaker 1: tax on what they get from the government. So you

472
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 1: put all this together, who are you prioritizing in Florida?

473
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:54,680
Speaker 1: It's obvious, And he even said it in the video

474
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 1: our seniors. Now he's trying to sell it on Twitter

475
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:00,160
Speaker 1: as actually because the young have to pay more more

476
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 1: in property taxes. Because we cap it for old people,

477
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 1: we're really helping them. No, at the end of the day,

478
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,440
Speaker 1: those are the people who need those services, like schools

479
00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:11,879
Speaker 1: in particular. You will be paying for it no matter what.

480
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:13,600
Speaker 1: You were just going to be paying for it in

481
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 1: a different way. Except now there's no market pressure to

482
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 1: overturn housing stock, which, yes, I know that that sounds mean,

483
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:24,120
Speaker 1: but I'm sorry. In healthy society, what happens is that

484
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:27,119
Speaker 1: housing stock are four to five six bedrooms and all

485
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:29,720
Speaker 1: these okay, six bedrooms, you're just super rich. But let's

486
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:33,360
Speaker 1: say three four bedrooms something like that. Yes, that's normally

487
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:36,320
Speaker 1: supposed to turn over. Downsizing is a part of the

488
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 1: American story, and I mean not just the American story.

489
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:43,159
Speaker 1: If you go throughout the entire world, the idea that

490
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 1: you have people who are in their eighties living in

491
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 1: three four five thousand square foot houses, you are nuts

492
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 1: out of your mind. Multi Generational housing is the way

493
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 1: that the rest of the world does it for a reason,

494
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 1: so that people can look out for each other and

495
00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:59,680
Speaker 1: be close to one another. You know, this whole thing

496
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 1: is built on this idea as if you have a

497
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 1: right to keep this massively appreciating asset, which through all

498
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:10,439
Speaker 1: human history usually turns over either within family or not,

499
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:13,400
Speaker 1: and that you should get breaks from it in terms

500
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:16,199
Speaker 1: of paying for the future generation. So that's the end

501
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:18,920
Speaker 1: of my rant. But I mean, I've never seen. I've

502
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:22,120
Speaker 1: never seen. The amount of weed is the only issue

503
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 1: that's even comparable in the amount of hate that I

504
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:26,600
Speaker 1: get on top of this. And so that's how I

505
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 1: know that I'm over the target. That's how I know

506
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 1: I'm over the target. I was right on weed. I

507
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:35,160
Speaker 1: get more tax from people by the year of Oh

508
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 1: my god, I can't believe I used to make fun

509
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 1: of you. You were totally correct. You'll all be back

510
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:42,360
Speaker 1: here whenever your sales tax spikes or your school's completely

511
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:44,360
Speaker 1: turned to shit. You're going to be back and tell

512
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:47,400
Speaker 1: me about why you wish that you wouldn't have voted

513
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:50,360
Speaker 1: for this. But I know everybody will because everybody, everybody, Oh,

514
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:52,320
Speaker 1: I just want to pay less taxes. You're gonna pay

515
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:53,679
Speaker 1: for it. You're gonna pay for it somehow.

516
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 2: Well, And that is the other option, is that instead

517
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 2: of paying for it through a highly rerossive sales tax

518
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:01,640
Speaker 2: that they just cut the school budgets. And I mean

519
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:03,679
Speaker 2: there is a long and DeSantis is part of this,

520
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 2: so a long like conservative war on public education. They

521
00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:09,479
Speaker 2: love to demonize teachers, you know, that's part of what

522
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:12,160
Speaker 2: the like Educate the teacher strike wave was all about,

523
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 2: as these massive cuts that were coming to education and

524
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 2: to teacher pay, et cetera. And so you know, it

525
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:20,120
Speaker 2: sort of fits with this broader ideological project.

526
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:21,639
Speaker 5: For me personally, I'd.

527
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 2: Be okay with reducing property taxes if you're replacing it

528
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 2: with something that is more progressive and more based on

529
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 2: your class. That would be a progressive income tax. But

530
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,560
Speaker 2: in Florida, since there is no income tax, that's obviously.

531
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,000
Speaker 1: Right, they don't have on the table.

532
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 2: Is so what you're going to be replacing it with

533
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 2: is something that is deeply regressive. And it is kind

534
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 2: of like the logic of this is very bizarre to me.

535
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:44,879
Speaker 2: Of like the fact that you own this asset that

536
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:49,360
Speaker 2: appreciated and has a higher value, Now that that's a negative,

537
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:52,080
Speaker 2: and that's something that we need to like, you know,

538
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 2: orient our political system around protecting people who live in

539
00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:59,160
Speaker 2: homes and own homes number one, which is a very

540
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 2: like privileged set of society at this point. And you

541
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:04,639
Speaker 2: have had the good you know, the good fortune to

542
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 2: see that asset appreciate over time. So yeah, it fits

543
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:11,880
Speaker 2: with this broader ideological conservative project. So I think it'll

544
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 2: continue to be a trend. I did want to read

545
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 2: Rnda santiss like subtweet of you.

546
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:18,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, just so people, you go ahead, Yeah, so you

547
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:19,720
Speaker 1: put it in post productions.

548
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:22,880
Speaker 2: Sagar had said, let me be one hundred percent clear

549
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 2: ending property taxes in Florida, especially as a massive giveaway

550
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:27,160
Speaker 2: to the elderly. It's in a time by the worst

551
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 2: generation of pass any and all expenses of living in

552
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 2: a society to the young while they get free healthcare and

553
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 2: inflation adjusted free income. By the way, and you argue

554
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 2: with that fully supports us securities, fully support medicare. But

555
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 2: I do think that level of care and safety net

556
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:45,199
Speaker 2: and concern should not just be exclusively for boomers. This

557
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:47,359
Speaker 2: other lady quote wreeted you and was like, this is

558
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:49,120
Speaker 2: the most ridiculous take I've ever seen.

559
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 5: And then Ronda santis chimed in and said.

560
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:54,560
Speaker 2: Isn't it a bit odd that the same week arguments

561
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 2: are all of a sudden circulating at the same time.

562
00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:00,199
Speaker 5: Gee, I wonder why must be a coincidence? Like so

563
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:01,200
Speaker 5: just like you say.

564
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:04,120
Speaker 2: You say, I'm me that you're being paid to have

565
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:06,120
Speaker 2: this take and that you're you know, just some sort

566
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:09,719
Speaker 2: of like bot out there who's pushing this narrative.

567
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:11,680
Speaker 5: But to me it was an indication.

568
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:12,359
Speaker 1: Oh, I'm over the target.

569
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:14,920
Speaker 5: Not only over the target, but you've been influential.

570
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:17,119
Speaker 2: Other people must be chiming in if he feels like

571
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:20,639
Speaker 2: there's a whole army of this quote unquote week argument

572
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:22,200
Speaker 2: circulating at the same time.

573
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:24,879
Speaker 1: It's circulating because and look, I'll be on the Charlie

574
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,160
Speaker 1: Kirk Show later today to lay out the same thing

575
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:29,879
Speaker 1: about property tax. The reason why this is catching on

576
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:32,359
Speaker 1: is they for years they've just been able to chant

577
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:37,439
Speaker 1: brain dead mantra all taxes or bad. Well, look, guys,

578
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:41,800
Speaker 1: here's the deal. You are literally targeting the least distortionary

579
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:45,719
Speaker 1: type of tax, one of the oldest taxes in American history, Lindy,

580
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 1: in terms of our society, if you care about your community,

581
00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:52,240
Speaker 1: these are literally the only type that's actually going to

582
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 1: helping what you're doing, it's helping raise the next generation,

583
00:28:56,400 --> 00:29:00,200
Speaker 1: and it's literally a gambit by the elderly and the

584
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 1: home ownership class, which is largely elderly. Do you want

585
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 1: to know what the medi and home buyer in Florida

586
00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 1: is is sixty years old? Median is sixty years old?

587
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 1: Who's living in the state of Florida? Who are again

588
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 1: getting free health care, free social security from the government

589
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:18,120
Speaker 1: and then the state? Oh, every time there's a hurricane. Yeah,

590
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 1: we're talking about our federal tax purer. Where's that going? Huh?

591
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 1: You guys are literally an unensurable state. Who do you

592
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 1: think is backing that up FEMA, which basically exists for

593
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 1: the state of Florida. That's fine, you guys are part

594
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 1: of the country. You send some dollars here too. It's cool.

595
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 1: We all live in a society. I accept my role,

596
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 1: even though I don't live in Florida that we often

597
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 1: have to bail out the state of Florida. I'm actually

598
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 1: okay with that. But they're not okay at the end

599
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 1: of the day with trying to fund basic social services,

600
00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 1: especially in these counts. I mean Miami Dade County. As

601
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:49,360
Speaker 1: I just read, there is one of those counties that

602
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 1: massively relies specifically on this homestead property tax to fund

603
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:57,720
Speaker 1: their schools. That's who you're attacking. And then they always

604
00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:00,720
Speaker 1: are bragging about how great their schools are. Don't say

605
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 1: gay and all that. That's fine with me, all right, cool,

606
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:05,960
Speaker 1: all right again, But if you're going to massively try

607
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 1: and slash all of this, what's going to happen. You're

608
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:10,360
Speaker 1: either going to slash it or you're gonna have to

609
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 1: move the burden again literally in a highly regressive sales tax,

610
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:16,880
Speaker 1: or on tourists who are already getting built in your

611
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 1: own home state by the Disney Corporation, by the cruise

612
00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 1: industry and all these other people. I just think it's,

613
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 1: you know, it's deeply unfair. And this stuff is catching

614
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 1: on because in the age of the affordability revolution. Let's

615
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:33,720
Speaker 1: think about the Republicans and the Ben Shapiro's of the

616
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 1: world and the Dessantas of the world. What do they

617
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 1: say to New York City renters when they say they

618
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 1: want to freeze the rent? Communism, socialism, Right, It's the

619
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 1: same argument on property tax, is it's unfair how much

620
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 1: my house is appreciated in value and I shouldn't have

621
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 1: to pay based upon that value. He likens the transaction

622
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:57,920
Speaker 1: of purchasing a home to purchasing a television. That is

623
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 1: the IQ of the oar which is being made here.

624
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 1: E two. Please let's take a lesson.

625
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 6: You should own your property free and clear. I think

626
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 6: to say that someone that's been in their house for

627
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 6: thirty five years just has to keep ponying up money

628
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 6: that you know that is not you don't own your

629
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 6: home if that's the If that's the case, so yes,

630
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 6: of course I'd like to see people be able to

631
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 6: owe oh, free and clear. And it's interesting because it's

632
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 6: like you, you know, if I go to Best Buy

633
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 6: and buy a flat screen TV and put it on

634
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,280
Speaker 6: the wall, I got to pay a sales tax on it, right,

635
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 6: But I don't keep paying tax on it every year.

636
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 6: I mean, it's just not that's not how we do things.

637
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 6: It's like, okay, if you're going to tax something, you

638
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 6: tax it at the transaction and then let people actually

639
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:45,640
Speaker 6: enjoy their free their their private property, free and clear

640
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 6: of the government. So that, I think is the vision,

641
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 6: that's the philosophical insight.

642
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 1: Well, here's the stupidity that he just laid out there.

643
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 1: If you want to take to meet ball seriously in

644
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 1: that let's tax it at the time of transaction. Okay,

645
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 1: everybody won one hundred thousand dollars surcharge on the top

646
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 1: of their house. That's what he's saying there it Oh, okay,

647
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 1: so in perpetuity, let's say average home ownership in Florida

648
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 1: or in the US, that's like eight years. We you

649
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 1: have to front load eight percent of property tax in

650
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:14,520
Speaker 1: your transaction. Do we all want to sign up for that?

651
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 1: That sounds really great for a new homeowner. Oh, actually,

652
00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:20,080
Speaker 1: part of my closing costs just went from you know,

653
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 1: X thousands to multiples of x thousands not rolled into

654
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 1: my mortgage payment. What is that fair? Is that superfic

655
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 1: You're gonna pay for it? That's what this is what

656
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:30,840
Speaker 1: people just don't seem to get. They think we can

657
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 1: just cut this here. You can live in a state

658
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:35,280
Speaker 1: with no income tax and you can just magically have

659
00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 1: a school district. You're either gonna have a shit school

660
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 1: district or you're gonna move to a high sales tax.

661
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 1: By the way, highest sales tax is not only aggressive

662
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 1: on the poor, it's also regressive on the young. When

663
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 1: you look at consumption data, so it's at the end

664
00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 1: of the.

665
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 2: Day, you'll just for like your private firefighter service.

666
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 1: They look at LI But even in these high tax

667
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 1: states like California, you still end up with places with

668
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 1: things like that because of the distortion of that property

669
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 1: tax measure that they pass, where people who have get

670
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 1: people have owned their homes for quite a long time,

671
00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 1: you do not get. They get property tax capped, and

672
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:12,680
Speaker 1: it's not pegged to the overall market rate, which means

673
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 1: that there's no turnover in the supply, and it is

674
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 1: the least the least affordable housing in the entire United States.

675
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 1: You can't be pro affordability, pro family and then also

676
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:27,040
Speaker 1: be anti property tax. It's just it's it's a completely

677
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:29,800
Speaker 1: in Congress position. It's also not a surprise to me

678
00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 1: that fucking Dave Rubin and all these other filthy rich

679
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 1: you know, confluencers down there are against it. Yeah. Why

680
00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 1: do you think, uh, when you own a multi million

681
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 1: dollar property in Florida and that's the only fucking tax

682
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 1: that you actually have to pay. Oh, I'm sure it's

683
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 1: a very principled position. You know that these people are

684
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 1: all take so at the very lead. Yeah, if you

685
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:50,239
Speaker 1: want to if you want to say I'm arguing as

686
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 1: my own economic interest. All right, you know, it's who's

687
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 1: paying me. Nobody is paying me. It takes look if

688
00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,560
Speaker 1: you want to actually look out for the future, and

689
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 1: in part if you want to look out and I

690
00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 1: believed in this. In the sun Belt and everything, people

691
00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:07,720
Speaker 1: were moving to Texas, Florida, Georgia, all across the nation.

692
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 1: They wanted more space, they want more quality of life,

693
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:11,840
Speaker 1: and they want a little bit less of being told

694
00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:14,200
Speaker 1: what to do from the you know, big blue authorities.

695
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 1: I have no issue with that. In fact, i'm supportive

696
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 1: of it. I think it's cool. But I think it's

697
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:21,839
Speaker 1: really disgusting because what they're doing is basically putting the

698
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 1: interests of these elderly people over all of these new

699
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 1: young people who are moving into the States to pursue

700
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:29,920
Speaker 1: their own American dream. It's like a bait and switch,

701
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:32,680
Speaker 1: if you ask me. And so I think that's really sick.

702
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:36,320
Speaker 1: And ultimately people, you know, look, I already know everyone's

703
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 1: going to support this and going to vote for it,

704
00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:39,839
Speaker 1: and they're going to find out the hard way at

705
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 1: the end of the day about why this has always

706
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 1: been one of the oldest funding mechanisms for you know

707
00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 1: since the very foundations of the republic, and you know,

708
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 1: it sounds fun and sexy and all of that, and

709
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 1: ultimately the net result will be much worse public services,

710
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 1: worse schools. You know, if everybody wants, if you want

711
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:00,960
Speaker 1: a whole school homeschool, I think that's fine, but not

712
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 1: everybody does. You know, some people actually want to send

713
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:06,240
Speaker 1: their children in public school. I went to Texas Public

714
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:09,319
Speaker 1: High School. There's nothing wrong with it. And you know,

715
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:12,879
Speaker 1: it's one of those where Bradley was long seen as

716
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:15,439
Speaker 1: something that you know, you could be proud of, even

717
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:17,800
Speaker 1: in a red state where you have school choice and everything,

718
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 1: and even now they're trying to do away with it.

719
00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:22,399
Speaker 1: So I think it's sick. We've got a great guest

720
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:23,839
Speaker 1: standing by, let's get to it.

721
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:28,840
Speaker 2: So, as you guys have probably noticed, we've been talking

722
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:31,600
Speaker 2: a whole lot about AI on this show and how

723
00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 2: it will impact all of our lives, how it's already

724
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:36,040
Speaker 2: impacting all of our lives. So we're very excited to

725
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:37,840
Speaker 2: have a guest today who knows a whole hell of

726
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:40,480
Speaker 2: a lot more about it than we do. Daniel coco

727
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:44,000
Speaker 2: Tello is formerly with Open AI. He now is the

728
00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 2: executive director of AI twenty twenty seventy co authored a

729
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 2: paper that tries to sketch out as best as they

730
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 2: can their predictions of the way AI development is heading.

731
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:57,280
Speaker 2: And spoiler alert here there are some very troubling warnings

732
00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:59,719
Speaker 2: contained within this report. So, Daniel, welcome, great to have.

733
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 7: You you, thanks for having me excited talk.

734
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:03,439
Speaker 5: Yeah, of course.

735
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:06,799
Speaker 2: So before we jump into the report and your sort

736
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 2: of projections of the future, i'd love for you a

737
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 2: level set of where AI development is today in terms

738
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:15,960
Speaker 2: of the sort of overall landscape and trajectory of where

739
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 2: you expect things to go.

740
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:21,480
Speaker 8: So probably your audience has heard of chat, GPT and

741
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 8: various other ais like that. They've sort of exploded onto

742
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:28,560
Speaker 8: the scene in the last few years because they've finally

743
00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:33,919
Speaker 8: gotten sufficiently capable that they are somewhat useful in real

744
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 8: life for a wide.

745
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:36,600
Speaker 7: Range of tasks.

746
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 8: They're getting more capable rapidly, and we can get into

747
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:42,520
Speaker 8: the details about why that is if you're interested, But

748
00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 8: the point is that progress is fast and the ais

749
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 8: are rapidly becoming more capable. As a result, several large

750
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:56,239
Speaker 8: tech companies, most notably Open AI, but also Anthropic and

751
00:36:56,280 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 8: Google XAI, Meta have explicitly set the goal of getting

752
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 8: to superintelligence in the near future. Superintelligence means a AI

753
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:09,720
Speaker 8: system which is better than the best humans at everything,

754
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 8: while also being faster and cheaper.

755
00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:14,160
Speaker 1: Daniel, then diving a little bit into your work, what

756
00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:17,120
Speaker 1: you have warned about about this super intelligence is that

757
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 1: jump off point of what your project has led to

758
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:22,680
Speaker 1: AI twenty twenty seven or perhaps twenty twenty eight. That

759
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 1: you're now saying is that as these ais began to

760
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 1: train each other, that the exponential growth and the potential

761
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:32,400
Speaker 1: kind of apocalyptic scenario may soon be upon us. Can

762
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:34,840
Speaker 1: you describe some of your own work and your research.

763
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:36,880
Speaker 8: In that yes, And before I do, I want to

764
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:41,320
Speaker 8: again set the context here, so you know, I was

765
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 8: working at OpenAI, and people at open EI and at

766
00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 8: Anthropic and at Google. We're talking about what it would

767
00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:51,840
Speaker 8: be like if and when we finally got to superintelligence.

768
00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:55,320
Speaker 8: This is something that these companies take seriously as a possibility.

769
00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:59,760
Speaker 8: It's literally what they're aiming to do, and it's wild,

770
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:05,440
Speaker 8: it's crazy, like what if they succeed? You know, Open

771
00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:09,800
Speaker 8: AI they their internal projection, which they actually made public recently,

772
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:12,880
Speaker 8: is that they will have automated AI research in twenty

773
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:17,560
Speaker 8: twenty eight, so the AIS will just be you know,

774
00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:22,279
Speaker 8: self improving around that time. Anthropics seems to think it's

775
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:26,799
Speaker 8: going to happen sooner twenty twenty seven. Other companies are,

776
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:28,960
Speaker 8: you know, maybe maybe thinking this a bit later. There's

777
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:34,400
Speaker 8: a lot of uncertainty. Nobody, including us, nobody knows exactly

778
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 8: when they would succeed at this goal, or even if

779
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 8: they would succeed at this goal. However, it seems to

780
00:38:40,640 --> 00:38:43,399
Speaker 8: us that yeah, they might succeed, and they might succeed soon.

781
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 8: So we wrote twenty twenty seven to illustrate what that

782
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:51,279
Speaker 8: would look like if it happened. As for when it's

783
00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:53,399
Speaker 8: going to happen, there's a lot of uncertainty. It could

784
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:55,560
Speaker 8: be twenty twenty seven, could be a bit later. I

785
00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:58,399
Speaker 8: think right now my median is more like twenty twenty nine,

786
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 8: twenty thirty, something like that. That like fifty percent chance

787
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 8: it happens before then, fifty percent chance it happens after then.

788
00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 8: But one way or another, I think that things are

789
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:10,520
Speaker 8: going to get pretty crazy pretty soon, and that's why

790
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:13,120
Speaker 8: we wrote this scenario to sort of illustrate what it

791
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:16,760
Speaker 8: might be like. And you know, we wrote it based

792
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:20,160
Speaker 8: on the sorts of things that people in the industry

793
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 8: talk about. You know that again, the AI is self improving.

794
00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 8: That's not just science fiction. It's literally the plan. This

795
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 8: is what the companies are trying to do, is to

796
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:32,919
Speaker 8: get an AI that can automate that research process entirely. Right,

797
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 8: the AI is being potentially misaligned. Well, they're already misaligned now.

798
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:41,480
Speaker 8: They don't always behave in the ways that they're supposed to,

799
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:45,279
Speaker 8: and our means of controlling them is limited right now.

800
00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:49,279
Speaker 8: So you know, this is sort of just extrapolating into

801
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:53,320
Speaker 8: the future how this might go. Obviously, the future is

802
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:55,279
Speaker 8: really hard to predict. It's probably not going to go

803
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 8: the way that AI twenty twenty seven says. But we

804
00:39:58,560 --> 00:40:02,839
Speaker 8: thought it would be helpful to, I guess, get people

805
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:04,840
Speaker 8: to start thinking more seriously about this, like people in

806
00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:06,759
Speaker 8: the companies are thinking about this. People, you know, you

807
00:40:06,760 --> 00:40:08,920
Speaker 8: can go to the cafeteria and ask people what do

808
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:10,239
Speaker 8: you think the future is going to be like? And

809
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:12,840
Speaker 8: oftentimes we'll hear stories that aren't that different from me

810
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:15,800
Speaker 8: on twenty twenty seven. But the rest of the world

811
00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:20,359
Speaker 8: sort of isn't really paying attention already for this.

812
00:40:20,680 --> 00:40:24,439
Speaker 2: Let's talk a little bit about misalignment, and for people

813
00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:27,400
Speaker 2: who aren't steeped in this language, basically it means that

814
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:30,200
Speaker 2: the AI is doing things that the humans don't want

815
00:40:30,200 --> 00:40:30,600
Speaker 2: it to do.

816
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:31,759
Speaker 5: And you can tell me.

817
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:34,800
Speaker 2: If i've got that, you know, I've got that basically correct.

818
00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:37,160
Speaker 2: What have you seen as being some of the key

819
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:40,799
Speaker 2: instances that we know about where there's been significant misalignment?

820
00:40:41,239 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 2: And how have you felt about the response from the

821
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:48,040
Speaker 2: companies whose models are experiencing this misalignment.

822
00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:55,440
Speaker 8: So you've probably heard about rock Mecha Hitler, yes being Sydney.

823
00:40:55,920 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 8: Those are sort of the the exciting, you know, twitter

824
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:06,760
Speaker 8: worthy instances of misalignment that are happening, but they're thankfully

825
00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 8: somewhat rare, and there are less exciting examples that are

826
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:14,319
Speaker 8: more persistent, which is such as sycophancy.

827
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:15,560
Speaker 7: I think these days.

828
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:19,719
Speaker 8: The companies have had some trouble getting the AIS to

829
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:23,040
Speaker 8: not suck up to the user, and this is because

830
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:27,480
Speaker 8: the well sucking up to the user works to some extent,

831
00:41:27,640 --> 00:41:30,480
Speaker 8: like it it often works to make the user, uh,

832
00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:33,279
Speaker 8: you know, feel happy and approving, and based on the

833
00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:38,560
Speaker 8: training process that they're using to train these ais, uh

834
00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 8: you know, if that if that sort of thing is reinforced,

835
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:43,320
Speaker 8: then it becomes a persistent behavior.

836
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:43,839
Speaker 4: Right.

837
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:46,799
Speaker 8: Uh, there's a similar thing called reward hacking, which is

838
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:51,279
Speaker 8: happening a lot sometimes where these days they often train

839
00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:53,440
Speaker 8: the AIS to do lots of math and coding problems,

840
00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:57,920
Speaker 8: and sometimes it's possible to cheat when you're doing the

841
00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:00,799
Speaker 8: math and coding problem and you know, produce some code

842
00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:04,440
Speaker 8: that isn't really good code, but that nevertheless passes the tests.

843
00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:08,240
Speaker 8: And so some of these aas have learned to cheat

844
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:13,080
Speaker 8: on these coding problems. And this, you know, I think

845
00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 8: probably if you use AI systems frequently, you'll have actually

846
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:18,640
Speaker 8: experienced this yourself at least a few times where they

847
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:21,640
Speaker 8: they say they've done something and they totally haven't, and

848
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:25,160
Speaker 8: then they maybe double down and and you know, try

849
00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:27,640
Speaker 8: to like deflect when you ask them about it.

850
00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:27,879
Speaker 7: Right.

851
00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:31,120
Speaker 8: So, so these are some everyday misalignments that are happening

852
00:42:31,160 --> 00:42:34,319
Speaker 8: right now, and they're not what the companies want to happen,

853
00:42:34,360 --> 00:42:36,839
Speaker 8: and not what the companies intended to happen, but their

854
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 8: behaviors that have resulted anyway because the company sort of

855
00:42:40,719 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 8: accidentally allowed that to happen and allowed it to be

856
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:47,080
Speaker 8: reinforced right the way. One way of putting it is

857
00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:53,400
Speaker 8: that the behaviors that were selected for in the training

858
00:42:53,480 --> 00:42:57,840
Speaker 8: environment were not exactly the behaviors that the company wanted

859
00:42:57,880 --> 00:43:00,440
Speaker 8: to select for, you know, and and so what the

860
00:43:00,520 --> 00:43:05,240
Speaker 8: gout at the end is not exactly what they wanted, right, Yeah.

861
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:09,400
Speaker 1: Go ahead. Well, something I'm really concerned about are some

862
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:12,040
Speaker 1: of these new recent claims, let's say, from Sam Altman,

863
00:43:12,200 --> 00:43:16,879
Speaker 1: about suicide and about erotica and the descent into pornography.

864
00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:20,880
Speaker 1: The basic framework that Sam Altman has put forward on

865
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:23,440
Speaker 1: both of these highly sensitive issues, which of course are

866
00:43:23,440 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 1: going to touch billions of people and potentially work behavior,

867
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:29,719
Speaker 1: is we have put processes in place. Now, given what

868
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:34,000
Speaker 1: you just said about misalignment and your own experience working,

869
00:43:34,200 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 1: how seriously can we take these promises that they have

870
00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:41,560
Speaker 1: processes in place to ensure that people don't experience and

871
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:44,320
Speaker 1: use these products, you know, to enhance their mental illness

872
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:47,000
Speaker 1: or god forbid, you know, encourage him to commit suicide

873
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:50,680
Speaker 1: or in the case of erotica pornography, like develop deep,

874
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:55,680
Speaker 1: like unhealthy attachments between technology and humans. They're saying, you know,

875
00:43:55,719 --> 00:43:57,359
Speaker 1: we've built all of these things into place to make

876
00:43:57,360 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 1: sure the tech behaves in a way that we wanted

877
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:01,759
Speaker 1: to seriously should we take some of those claims, given

878
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:03,440
Speaker 1: your experience in your research.

879
00:44:04,160 --> 00:44:06,920
Speaker 7: Not very seriously. I would say I think that the.

880
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:10,680
Speaker 8: You know, Opening Eye says on their website, and they've

881
00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:13,880
Speaker 8: said internally for a long time that their strategy for

882
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:19,880
Speaker 8: a safety is iterative iterative deployment, which means, you know,

883
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:21,640
Speaker 8: build the thing, put it out there in the world,

884
00:44:21,719 --> 00:44:24,600
Speaker 8: have it, do a bunch of stuff, and then see

885
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:27,440
Speaker 8: how it goes wrong, and then fix the problems after

886
00:44:27,480 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 8: they happen. And I think there's actually a lot going

887
00:44:31,560 --> 00:44:34,080
Speaker 8: for this strategy. I think it's sort of historically how

888
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:37,239
Speaker 8: humans have made a lot of things safe, Like a

889
00:44:37,239 --> 00:44:39,240
Speaker 8: lot of people had to die in car crashes before

890
00:44:39,640 --> 00:44:43,359
Speaker 8: cars could become as safe as they are today, and

891
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:45,879
Speaker 8: a lot of planes crashed before planes became as safe

892
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:49,239
Speaker 8: as they are today. But the bottom line is that

893
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:51,840
Speaker 8: you know, as a consumer, you're going to be dealing

894
00:44:51,880 --> 00:44:56,160
Speaker 8: with a new AI system that will probably have all

895
00:44:56,160 --> 00:44:59,279
Speaker 8: sorts of traits and properties that weren't intended, that might

896
00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:01,680
Speaker 8: cause all sorts of of strange effects to the people

897
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:05,120
Speaker 8: who work with it that the company didn't anticipate, and

898
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:08,279
Speaker 8: then only you know, months later when they get the

899
00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:11,000
Speaker 8: reports of the suicides, will they then do something to

900
00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:14,200
Speaker 8: fix it? And that's the way it's going to be,

901
00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:16,239
Speaker 8: not just at Open Eye, but these other companies too,

902
00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:19,160
Speaker 8: because of the intense race dynamics that we're under. And

903
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:22,560
Speaker 8: I think that, you know, someone could say, maybe that's fine,

904
00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:25,560
Speaker 8: Maybe that is actually the normal way that we get

905
00:45:25,640 --> 00:45:30,200
Speaker 8: used to technology is by sort of having it go

906
00:45:30,280 --> 00:45:32,239
Speaker 8: out and do stuff and cause harm, and then we

907
00:45:32,680 --> 00:45:35,719
Speaker 8: fix the problems as they come up. However, I think

908
00:45:35,760 --> 00:45:38,839
Speaker 8: it's not fine when things get extremely high stakes, when

909
00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 8: they you know, when the AIS are building the next

910
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:46,319
Speaker 8: generation of AI systems, then even a relatively small misalignment

911
00:45:46,440 --> 00:45:50,400
Speaker 8: or problem could be passed on into the next generation

912
00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:52,799
Speaker 8: and then into the next generation and so forth, and

913
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:55,320
Speaker 8: it could sort of snowball out of control in the

914
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:56,880
Speaker 8: manner described in a twin twicelf.

915
00:45:56,960 --> 00:45:59,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, it seems to be like there's actually two misalignments

916
00:45:59,280 --> 00:46:01,880
Speaker 2: to be concerned about. One is the misalignment between the

917
00:46:01,920 --> 00:46:05,960
Speaker 2: models and the programmers. The other misalignment is between the

918
00:46:06,239 --> 00:46:09,000
Speaker 2: you know, tech guys that are developing this stuff and

919
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:11,160
Speaker 2: all the rest of us and humanity and what we

920
00:46:11,239 --> 00:46:13,399
Speaker 2: actually would like to say, because I mean I'm even

921
00:46:13,440 --> 00:46:16,440
Speaker 2: thinking about that example of the sycophancy, like, in a

922
00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:21,040
Speaker 2: sense it creates a worse product because it leads to

923
00:46:21,520 --> 00:46:24,880
Speaker 2: lying and manipulation, et cetera. But from maybe an Elon

924
00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 2: Musk perspective, it's not a worse product because it keeps

925
00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:30,000
Speaker 2: users engaged for a longer period of time. And when

926
00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:32,920
Speaker 2: you when you mentioned this overall race dynamic, and I

927
00:46:32,920 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 2: want to use this as a way to get more

928
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:37,480
Speaker 2: deeply into AI twenty twenty seven and what you think

929
00:46:37,520 --> 00:46:38,560
Speaker 2: the trajectory is.

930
00:46:39,080 --> 00:46:40,120
Speaker 5: You know, Elon is an.

931
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:43,160
Speaker 2: Interesting character because this is someone who was very worried

932
00:46:43,160 --> 00:46:46,400
Speaker 2: about AI safety to begin with. And my understanding is basically,

933
00:46:46,480 --> 00:46:48,759
Speaker 2: once you realize, well, everybody's off to the races, I

934
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 2: guess I got to put my own product down there

935
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:52,560
Speaker 2: and make it anti woke because I think that's what's

936
00:46:52,600 --> 00:46:54,080
Speaker 2: going to be the thing that protects us all, which

937
00:46:54,080 --> 00:46:56,160
Speaker 2: I think is completely ludicrous on its face. I can't

938
00:46:56,160 --> 00:46:58,680
Speaker 2: even believe that he actually thinks that, but that was

939
00:46:58,719 --> 00:47:03,160
Speaker 2: the logic that him also participating in this arms race,

940
00:47:03,200 --> 00:47:05,600
Speaker 2: which is both with US companies and then also against

941
00:47:06,080 --> 00:47:10,160
Speaker 2: China and Chinese competitors. So given those are the sort

942
00:47:10,160 --> 00:47:13,399
Speaker 2: of fundamental dynamics we have going on here? What do

943
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:17,600
Speaker 2: you project out? How do we go from this moment

944
00:47:17,680 --> 00:47:19,759
Speaker 2: where it's like, Okay, I can ask chat GPT a

945
00:47:19,880 --> 00:47:20,760
Speaker 2: question and it's sort.

946
00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:22,080
Speaker 5: Of like a glorified Google search.

947
00:47:22,360 --> 00:47:25,080
Speaker 2: I can get some weird AI slot videos from Sora

948
00:47:25,280 --> 00:47:28,799
Speaker 2: or whatever, to this could actually potentially be the end

949
00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:31,520
Speaker 2: of human civilization. What is the chain of events that

950
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:32,920
Speaker 2: lead you to that conclusion.

951
00:47:34,600 --> 00:47:38,279
Speaker 8: Well, that's a very important question, and the answer to

952
00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:40,920
Speaker 8: that question is read AI twenty twenty seven, which is

953
00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:44,680
Speaker 8: a fifty page detailed chain of events that leads from

954
00:47:44,680 --> 00:47:47,919
Speaker 8: where we are now to that conclusion. And I'm glad

955
00:47:47,960 --> 00:47:52,839
Speaker 8: you've mentioned the two misalignment problems because because that's another

956
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:55,239
Speaker 8: important issue that I wanted to talk about, Which is

957
00:47:55,400 --> 00:47:56,800
Speaker 8: the way that I would put it is, there's the

958
00:47:57,239 --> 00:48:00,520
Speaker 8: loss of control problem, which is, like, how can we

959
00:48:00,560 --> 00:48:02,719
Speaker 8: have any humans in control of these ais after they

960
00:48:02,800 --> 00:48:06,880
Speaker 8: become super intelligent and embedded in everything and running autonomous

961
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:09,840
Speaker 8: factories and so forth. That's the loss of control problem.

962
00:48:10,520 --> 00:48:13,480
Speaker 8: But then there's the concentration of power problem, which is

963
00:48:14,200 --> 00:48:17,200
Speaker 8: which humans control them and what are they doing with

964
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 8: the armies of superintelligences that they control right, And I

965
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:24,799
Speaker 8: think both problems are very serious and we're currently not

966
00:48:24,840 --> 00:48:27,719
Speaker 8: on track to have solved either of those problems. We

967
00:48:27,800 --> 00:48:31,400
Speaker 8: talked a little bit about the the misalignment problem the

968
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 8: loss of control problem already. Briefly, I'll say about the

969
00:48:34,480 --> 00:48:39,440
Speaker 8: conservation of power problem. The industry inherently has returns to scale.

970
00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:43,400
Speaker 8: It's just in the shape of technology. The best AIS

971
00:48:43,440 --> 00:48:45,440
Speaker 8: are going to be trained on the biggest data centers.

972
00:48:45,480 --> 00:48:47,919
Speaker 8: Generally speaking, you're not going to have mom and pop

973
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:52,239
Speaker 8: shops or like hackers in their basement building. You know,

974
00:48:52,280 --> 00:48:54,520
Speaker 8: better AIS than the giant tech companies because of how

975
00:48:54,600 --> 00:48:59,560
Speaker 8: much returns to scale there are in AI training. And moreover,

976
00:49:00,920 --> 00:49:03,640
Speaker 8: it's it is like software in this in a way

977
00:49:03,640 --> 00:49:06,839
Speaker 8: that makes it more winner ticks all right, Like, even

978
00:49:06,880 --> 00:49:11,440
Speaker 8: though you can make your own Facebook clone relatively easily,

979
00:49:11,800 --> 00:49:15,840
Speaker 8: you can't recruit people to be part of your Facebook

980
00:49:15,880 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 8: clone so easily because everyone's on Facebook or whatever like

981
00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:22,960
Speaker 8: you sort of it is hard to compete in that way.

982
00:49:23,320 --> 00:49:26,280
Speaker 8: And then there's an additional dynamic which hasn't been seen before,

983
00:49:26,360 --> 00:49:30,440
Speaker 8: which is the recursive self improvement automation loop. Once the

984
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:34,280
Speaker 8: ais are doing the AI research, then the gap between

985
00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:37,800
Speaker 8: the company that has the best aies and other companies

986
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:42,120
Speaker 8: could potentially grow really fast. And as a result, I

987
00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:49,600
Speaker 8: think that basically power concentrates by default. You know, by

988
00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:51,719
Speaker 8: by default, we end up in a situation where one

989
00:49:51,800 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 8: to four mega corporations have these one to four giant

990
00:49:57,680 --> 00:50:02,919
Speaker 8: armies of superintelligences their data centers, and then those one

991
00:50:02,960 --> 00:50:06,239
Speaker 8: to four armies of superintelligences are going out into the

992
00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:09,440
Speaker 8: economy doing all the jobs, you know, giving advice to

993
00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:12,920
Speaker 8: the presidents, being integrated into the military, et cetera. And

994
00:50:13,680 --> 00:50:17,200
Speaker 8: that's an insane amount of concentration of power compared to

995
00:50:17,440 --> 00:50:18,560
Speaker 8: anything we've seen historically.

996
00:50:18,719 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 1: I want to ask you about power use. There's something

997
00:50:20,600 --> 00:50:23,279
Speaker 1: that we've been looking at quite a bit. What does

998
00:50:23,360 --> 00:50:26,000
Speaker 1: that look like? You know, based on your guys's research.

999
00:50:26,040 --> 00:50:28,719
Speaker 1: You're talking about the compounding kind of network effects why

1000
00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:31,640
Speaker 1: naturally big companies are going to be the people who

1001
00:50:31,719 --> 00:50:34,200
Speaker 1: are going to both you know, experience kind of runaway

1002
00:50:34,440 --> 00:50:37,640
Speaker 1: AI improvement, but also, you know, the capital expenditures that

1003
00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:41,000
Speaker 1: are required for data centers and power usage naturally lend

1004
00:50:41,040 --> 00:50:43,600
Speaker 1: themselves to these kind of bigger tech monopolies and the

1005
00:50:43,640 --> 00:50:47,520
Speaker 1: more established players. When the AI start training themselves and

1006
00:50:47,520 --> 00:50:49,640
Speaker 1: that kind of leads to this runaway growth. Are we

1007
00:50:49,680 --> 00:50:53,040
Speaker 1: going to see exponential power needs usage by these data

1008
00:50:53,040 --> 00:50:55,160
Speaker 1: centers expenditure? What are your thoughts on that.

1009
00:50:56,520 --> 00:50:58,600
Speaker 8: First of all, the as are already training themselves, but

1010
00:50:58,760 --> 00:51:00,719
Speaker 8: in the future they'll be doing the whole research stack

1011
00:51:00,840 --> 00:51:05,760
Speaker 8: instead of just parts of it. As For electricity consumption, currently,

1012
00:51:06,719 --> 00:51:09,040
Speaker 8: I think that there's a bit of a I think

1013
00:51:09,080 --> 00:51:11,560
Speaker 8: I think there's a lot of misconceptions and myths about

1014
00:51:11,560 --> 00:51:17,240
Speaker 8: how how much energy and water these ais consume. It's

1015
00:51:17,560 --> 00:51:21,480
Speaker 8: less than humans, however, it is still a lot, and

1016
00:51:21,560 --> 00:51:25,800
Speaker 8: it's growing fast as the companies scale up, and sometime

1017
00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:28,319
Speaker 8: before the end of this decade, it will start to uh,

1018
00:51:29,120 --> 00:51:31,719
Speaker 8: if trends continue, it'll start to strain the US power grid.

1019
00:51:31,960 --> 00:51:34,880
Speaker 8: And so you know, people in the industry will talk

1020
00:51:34,920 --> 00:51:38,120
Speaker 8: about how you have a nuclear power plant next to

1021
00:51:38,160 --> 00:51:41,680
Speaker 8: a data center and then there'll be a bunker underneath

1022
00:51:41,719 --> 00:51:43,120
Speaker 8: with the researchers.

1023
00:51:44,200 --> 00:51:47,080
Speaker 7: That there's that sort of that image.

1024
00:51:48,880 --> 00:51:51,759
Speaker 5: So your report came out a little while ago.

1025
00:51:52,120 --> 00:51:56,480
Speaker 2: How are your predictions stacking up against reality thus far?

1026
00:51:56,680 --> 00:51:58,920
Speaker 2: And also, I know you've been very open to, you know,

1027
00:51:59,000 --> 00:52:02,680
Speaker 2: to feedback to critiques. Has there been any critique that

1028
00:52:02,719 --> 00:52:04,879
Speaker 2: you have found to have a lot of merits such

1029
00:52:04,920 --> 00:52:07,200
Speaker 2: that it has shaped or altered your opinions since the

1030
00:52:07,239 --> 00:52:07,919
Speaker 2: report came out.

1031
00:52:08,160 --> 00:52:08,800
Speaker 7: Yeah, a couple.

1032
00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:11,960
Speaker 8: So the good news from my perspective is that things

1033
00:52:12,000 --> 00:52:14,719
Speaker 8: are going a little bit slower than I thought when

1034
00:52:14,800 --> 00:52:18,439
Speaker 8: we were writing twenty twenty seven. So at the time

1035
00:52:18,480 --> 00:52:20,560
Speaker 8: that we published a twenty twenty seven, twenty twenty eight

1036
00:52:20,719 --> 00:52:23,720
Speaker 8: was my medium, and now it's more like twenty thirty.

1037
00:52:23,840 --> 00:52:26,239
Speaker 8: So I've pushed things back a little bit. And there's

1038
00:52:26,520 --> 00:52:28,799
Speaker 8: no single reason for that. It's a bunch of little

1039
00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:32,400
Speaker 8: reasons that sort of added up. So one reason is

1040
00:52:32,440 --> 00:52:36,840
Speaker 8: that the you know, we made predictions for benchmark performance

1041
00:52:37,239 --> 00:52:41,040
Speaker 8: on a bunch of benchmarks and also qualitative predictions for

1042
00:52:41,120 --> 00:52:42,920
Speaker 8: sort of what types of things AIS would be doing

1043
00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:46,080
Speaker 8: by the end of twenty twenty five, and I think

1044
00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:49,800
Speaker 8: that things have gone like mostly as fast as we said,

1045
00:52:49,840 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 8: but not as fast, like a little bit slower, So

1046
00:52:52,160 --> 00:52:55,640
Speaker 8: that pushes it. That's like one piece of evidence. Another

1047
00:52:55,719 --> 00:52:58,520
Speaker 8: piece of evidence is that we readd our timelines model.

1048
00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:00,959
Speaker 8: We fixed a few books that people who pointed out,

1049
00:53:01,320 --> 00:53:05,640
Speaker 8: and we added a bunch of features to it, new

1050
00:53:05,640 --> 00:53:09,759
Speaker 8: things to consider, new factors to incorporate, and the net

1051
00:53:09,800 --> 00:53:12,799
Speaker 8: result of all of that pushed things out by like

1052
00:53:12,840 --> 00:53:13,480
Speaker 8: two years.

1053
00:53:13,640 --> 00:53:15,480
Speaker 1: Yeah. So, Daniel, one of the things that we were

1054
00:53:15,520 --> 00:53:18,360
Speaker 1: flagged about is you've also warned about kind of the

1055
00:53:18,640 --> 00:53:20,520
Speaker 1: you know, a lot of the discourse right now is

1056
00:53:20,560 --> 00:53:22,920
Speaker 1: about white collar jobs, but what about some of these

1057
00:53:22,960 --> 00:53:27,200
Speaker 1: more blue collar jobs, potential robots working as plumbers and

1058
00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:29,480
Speaker 1: others that you've described in the past. Curious for your

1059
00:53:29,520 --> 00:53:29,960
Speaker 1: take on that.

1060
00:53:30,680 --> 00:53:34,239
Speaker 8: Yeah, So it depends on how far away superintelligence is

1061
00:53:34,800 --> 00:53:37,919
Speaker 8: so or how far away the full automation of AI

1062
00:53:38,000 --> 00:53:40,640
Speaker 8: research is in the neo term, like in the next

1063
00:53:40,680 --> 00:53:45,120
Speaker 8: couple of years, probably in the twenty twenties. I would

1064
00:53:45,120 --> 00:53:48,000
Speaker 8: say that if we get the full automation of AID

1065
00:53:48,000 --> 00:53:49,799
Speaker 8: research in the twenty twenties in the way that the

1066
00:53:49,800 --> 00:53:55,680
Speaker 8: companies seem to think, then the sort of cognitive intellectual

1067
00:53:55,680 --> 00:53:59,480
Speaker 8: capabilities of AIS will outstrip the physical capabilities for some period.

1068
00:54:00,160 --> 00:54:02,200
Speaker 7: And this is what's described in AI twenty twenty seven.

1069
00:54:02,400 --> 00:54:05,520
Speaker 8: So in AI twenty twenty seven, again in our scenario,

1070
00:54:06,800 --> 00:54:09,960
Speaker 8: they succeed in automating AI research in twenty twenty seven,

1071
00:54:10,520 --> 00:54:14,120
Speaker 8: and this results in better and better AIS that become

1072
00:54:14,200 --> 00:54:18,440
Speaker 8: super intelligent. By twenty twenty eight, and then those ais

1073
00:54:18,480 --> 00:54:22,320
Speaker 8: sort of explode out into the economy, redesign all the robots,

1074
00:54:22,960 --> 00:54:26,440
Speaker 8: redesign all the factories to produce new robots, and then

1075
00:54:26,520 --> 00:54:29,239
Speaker 8: control the robots to go build new factories and so forth.

1076
00:54:29,280 --> 00:54:32,360
Speaker 8: And so there's this massive change in the physical economy

1077
00:54:32,840 --> 00:54:34,839
Speaker 8: that takes place over the course of twenty twenty eight.

1078
00:54:35,360 --> 00:54:37,040
Speaker 7: But the change in the sort of.

1079
00:54:38,640 --> 00:54:43,799
Speaker 8: White collar, sort of intellectual you know, the desk job

1080
00:54:43,840 --> 00:54:47,960
Speaker 8: economy was disrupted earlier in twenty twenty seven, if that

1081
00:54:48,000 --> 00:54:52,000
Speaker 8: makes sense. However, if things happen later, like if it's

1082
00:54:52,000 --> 00:54:54,799
Speaker 8: in the twenty thirties, then I think that robots and

1083
00:54:55,640 --> 00:54:59,359
Speaker 8: physical machinery may have caught up, and so it might

1084
00:54:59,400 --> 00:55:01,359
Speaker 8: be more of a both of these things happening at

1085
00:55:01,360 --> 00:55:05,640
Speaker 8: the same time type situation, which I actually think is

1086
00:55:05,920 --> 00:55:10,680
Speaker 8: less dangerous because humanity will be paying more attention to

1087
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:13,000
Speaker 8: what's going on if it's sort of happening in the

1088
00:55:13,000 --> 00:55:16,520
Speaker 8: physical world distributed across the economy. I think that it's

1089
00:55:16,600 --> 00:55:21,320
Speaker 8: quite scary to have an intelligence explosion happening, possibly in secret,

1090
00:55:21,680 --> 00:55:27,840
Speaker 8: in one or more tech companies, because then you have

1091
00:55:27,920 --> 00:55:33,360
Speaker 8: this sort of discontinuity from the perspective of most people,

1092
00:55:33,520 --> 00:55:38,120
Speaker 8: where the world still looks quite normal, even as the

1093
00:55:38,160 --> 00:55:40,759
Speaker 8: AI is our self improving and becoming vastly superhuman, and

1094
00:55:40,800 --> 00:55:42,360
Speaker 8: you just don't know about it, perhaps because it's a

1095
00:55:42,400 --> 00:55:44,799
Speaker 8: state secret, perhaps because it's a corporate secret, you know.

1096
00:55:45,600 --> 00:55:48,560
Speaker 8: And then by the time you find out, it's because

1097
00:55:48,640 --> 00:55:51,759
Speaker 8: this army of superintelligences has taken your job and is

1098
00:55:51,800 --> 00:55:56,400
Speaker 8: now telling you how to build, you know, the new

1099
00:55:56,520 --> 00:55:58,400
Speaker 8: widget in the new type of factory that's going to

1100
00:55:58,400 --> 00:56:00,960
Speaker 8: build robots, and you don't really have much of us

1101
00:56:00,960 --> 00:56:03,359
Speaker 8: say in the matter, because they're super intelligent and they've

1102
00:56:03,360 --> 00:56:06,759
Speaker 8: already you know, got the president on side, and they've

1103
00:56:06,800 --> 00:56:10,040
Speaker 8: already you know, got they've already sort of like made

1104
00:56:10,040 --> 00:56:11,960
Speaker 8: all the moves to accumulate all the power, you know.

1105
00:56:13,760 --> 00:56:16,800
Speaker 8: So that's uh, well, that's the movie depicted on A

1106
00:56:17,000 --> 00:56:17,600
Speaker 8: twenty twenty seven.

1107
00:56:17,760 --> 00:56:20,279
Speaker 5: Basically, what is the level of job loss that you

1108
00:56:20,400 --> 00:56:21,680
Speaker 5: expected on what timeline?

1109
00:56:23,040 --> 00:56:25,960
Speaker 8: So I think that prior to the full automation of

1110
00:56:26,000 --> 00:56:28,840
Speaker 8: AID research, there will be some job loss, but not

1111
00:56:29,440 --> 00:56:33,840
Speaker 8: most of the jobs, so to speak. I think this

1112
00:56:34,200 --> 00:56:36,359
Speaker 8: partly because the companies are trying to automate their own

1113
00:56:36,440 --> 00:56:40,280
Speaker 8: jobs first, like they are really gunning for automating AI research.

1114
00:56:40,520 --> 00:56:43,719
Speaker 8: That like that's you know, everything else is almost like

1115
00:56:43,800 --> 00:56:48,600
Speaker 8: incidental on the way to that. And so I think

1116
00:56:48,640 --> 00:56:51,719
Speaker 8: that prior to succeeding at automating AID research, there will

1117
00:56:51,760 --> 00:56:55,319
Speaker 8: be various sectors that get impacted, but most people will

1118
00:56:55,320 --> 00:56:58,120
Speaker 8: still have their jobs. After the automation of AI research,

1119
00:56:58,560 --> 00:57:01,160
Speaker 8: then I think you get super intelligent, you know, within

1120
00:57:01,200 --> 00:57:05,120
Speaker 8: a year or so, and then everyone's job all at

1121
00:57:05,160 --> 00:57:10,000
Speaker 8: once is obsolete, like not not even just gone, but

1122
00:57:10,080 --> 00:57:14,480
Speaker 8: sort of obsolete. Like super intelligence is by definition do

1123
00:57:14,640 --> 00:57:17,160
Speaker 8: everything better, faster, cheaper than the best humans.

1124
00:57:18,680 --> 00:57:22,080
Speaker 7: And so I think that's just a very different world.

1125
00:57:22,160 --> 00:57:25,760
Speaker 8: It's a world where it becomes a matter of pole

1126
00:57:25,960 --> 00:57:27,760
Speaker 8: politics rather than economics.

1127
00:57:28,040 --> 00:57:29,640
Speaker 7: Right, It's a world where.

1128
00:57:31,680 --> 00:57:34,600
Speaker 8: Humans don't need to work anymore because there's all these

1129
00:57:34,640 --> 00:57:38,160
Speaker 8: amazing superintelligences and robots that can do everything so much

1130
00:57:38,200 --> 00:57:42,840
Speaker 8: more efficiently and produce amazing abundant wealth. And as long

1131
00:57:42,880 --> 00:57:45,720
Speaker 8: as the political structure and the alignment is in place,

1132
00:57:46,400 --> 00:57:49,720
Speaker 8: then that wealth can be distributed to the humans who

1133
00:57:50,360 --> 00:57:51,160
Speaker 8: don't have anything to do.

1134
00:57:51,680 --> 00:57:54,880
Speaker 2: But if that structure is not in place, then you know, yeah, well,

1135
00:57:54,920 --> 00:57:57,640
Speaker 2: and that's the thing is, like you know, I am

1136
00:57:58,000 --> 00:58:00,200
Speaker 2: like not a big fan of these human beings. I

1137
00:58:00,280 --> 00:58:02,720
Speaker 2: assume they don't want to like you know, violent revolution

1138
00:58:03,040 --> 00:58:04,440
Speaker 2: or and human civilization.

1139
00:58:05,040 --> 00:58:07,200
Speaker 5: Like, how are they thinking that this is going to go?

1140
00:58:07,840 --> 00:58:10,640
Speaker 2: And if they have I know many of them have

1141
00:58:10,720 --> 00:58:12,919
Speaker 2: probably read a twenty sevent they've done their own thinking

1142
00:58:12,960 --> 00:58:15,440
Speaker 2: about how this is all going to play out. You know,

1143
00:58:15,560 --> 00:58:18,480
Speaker 2: they're pushing and spending trillions of dollar, committing trillions of

1144
00:58:18,520 --> 00:58:20,439
Speaker 2: dollars to the BILLDOUN to try to be the first

1145
00:58:20,720 --> 00:58:23,560
Speaker 2: to get to this milestone. Why aren't they also doing

1146
00:58:23,640 --> 00:58:26,600
Speaker 2: any of the work to sort of you know, positive Okay, well,

1147
00:58:26,640 --> 00:58:30,880
Speaker 2: here's how society will function when nobody needs to work anymore.

1148
00:58:30,960 --> 00:58:33,960
Speaker 2: I don't see any of that thinking or working or

1149
00:58:34,160 --> 00:58:36,880
Speaker 2: you know, a major focus on alignment even happening. So

1150
00:58:37,520 --> 00:58:40,880
Speaker 2: how are they just rushing headlong into something that seems

1151
00:58:41,040 --> 00:58:42,560
Speaker 2: so potentially catastrophic?

1152
00:58:43,480 --> 00:58:46,040
Speaker 8: Well, you answered your question earlier with the reference to

1153
00:58:46,080 --> 00:58:48,480
Speaker 8: Elon Musk. There's a there's a I think there's an

1154
00:58:48,480 --> 00:58:50,080
Speaker 8: interview with him that you can go look up where

1155
00:58:50,080 --> 00:58:53,880
Speaker 8: he says, yeah, like it seems like maybe ais are

1156
00:58:53,960 --> 00:58:55,880
Speaker 8: going to be the end of human civilization, maybe they'll

1157
00:58:55,920 --> 00:58:59,680
Speaker 8: kill us all. But you know, what can I do?

1158
00:59:00,120 --> 00:59:03,000
Speaker 7: The race isn't going to stop. At least I want

1159
00:59:03,040 --> 00:59:03,200
Speaker 7: to be.

1160
00:59:03,200 --> 00:59:03,520
Speaker 1: Part of it.

1161
00:59:03,640 --> 00:59:06,240
Speaker 8: Now I forget, I forget exactly the quote he said,

1162
00:59:06,280 --> 00:59:08,640
Speaker 8: but like basically there's a sort of if you can't

1163
00:59:08,680 --> 00:59:12,720
Speaker 8: beat them, join them mentality across a lot of these companies,

1164
00:59:13,000 --> 00:59:14,440
Speaker 8: and the sort of like more.

1165
00:59:15,920 --> 00:59:17,200
Speaker 7: The way that many of them will put it is

1166
00:59:17,280 --> 00:59:19,520
Speaker 7: basically like, well, we're the good guys.

1167
00:59:19,880 --> 00:59:23,400
Speaker 8: You know, there's a bunch of evil corporations racing to

1168
00:59:23,480 --> 00:59:25,840
Speaker 8: build superintelligence, and they're not going to do it very well,

1169
00:59:26,120 --> 00:59:27,600
Speaker 8: and they're not going to do it very safely, and

1170
00:59:27,680 --> 00:59:29,480
Speaker 8: who knows what they'll do with it after they succeed.

1171
00:59:30,000 --> 00:59:32,680
Speaker 8: But we're the good guys, and so we're going to

1172
00:59:33,800 --> 00:59:36,000
Speaker 8: beat them all and build it first, and then we

1173
00:59:36,120 --> 00:59:38,360
Speaker 8: will be open about it, or then we will make

1174
00:59:38,440 --> 00:59:40,400
Speaker 8: it safe, or then we will distribute it or.

1175
00:59:40,360 --> 00:59:40,680
Speaker 1: What it like.

1176
00:59:41,200 --> 00:59:43,240
Speaker 8: You know, that part is always very hazy. They don't

1177
00:59:43,240 --> 00:59:46,600
Speaker 8: really have much of a concrete plan for like what

1178
00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:49,880
Speaker 8: they do after they win. But but they tell themselves

1179
00:59:49,960 --> 00:59:52,120
Speaker 8: that that they're the good guys and that it's important

1180
00:59:52,160 --> 00:59:52,640
Speaker 8: for them to win.

1181
00:59:54,560 --> 00:59:59,040
Speaker 7: Yeah, yeah, that's and that to be clear, like it's

1182
00:59:59,080 --> 00:59:59,800
Speaker 7: not just me saying this.

1183
01:00:00,080 --> 01:00:03,040
Speaker 8: You can go look up about the founding of open

1184
01:00:03,080 --> 01:00:05,640
Speaker 8: AI and the founding of deep mind and the founding

1185
01:00:05,680 --> 01:00:10,640
Speaker 8: of Anthropic and there are echoes of that narrative present

1186
01:00:11,520 --> 01:00:12,160
Speaker 8: in all three.

1187
01:00:12,440 --> 01:00:14,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, they say it. They say it every time they

1188
01:00:14,280 --> 01:00:16,760
Speaker 1: say this stuff out loud effectively about we need to win,

1189
01:00:16,880 --> 01:00:19,200
Speaker 1: and as you said, they openly acknowledge that like it

1190
01:00:19,240 --> 01:00:22,600
Speaker 1: will lead to mass job loss. I do have the goal, right,

1191
01:00:22,840 --> 01:00:25,360
Speaker 1: that's what they want. Can we steal man your case

1192
01:00:25,360 --> 01:00:27,640
Speaker 1: a little bit? I'm just curious, you know, for your thoughts.

1193
01:00:28,240 --> 01:00:31,880
Speaker 1: What I've observed is, you know, and this is maybe cynical,

1194
01:00:31,960 --> 01:00:34,720
Speaker 1: but like when you're no longer talking about curing cancer

1195
01:00:34,840 --> 01:00:38,680
Speaker 1: or superintelligence and you're instead talking about pornography and ads

1196
01:00:38,720 --> 01:00:41,560
Speaker 1: in the feed, and you're running advertisements on the NFL

1197
01:00:42,160 --> 01:00:46,200
Speaker 1: encouraging using AI as you know, AI chatbots to do

1198
01:00:46,360 --> 01:00:49,919
Speaker 1: studio ghibli Are we so sure that superintelligence is coming

1199
01:00:49,960 --> 01:00:52,200
Speaker 1: and that we haven't just recreated, you know, a new

1200
01:00:52,960 --> 01:00:55,840
Speaker 1: Internet platform like a new Google Chrome, a new great

1201
01:00:55,920 --> 01:00:59,120
Speaker 1: advertising sales model, but not all that revolutionary. That's the

1202
01:00:59,160 --> 01:01:00,439
Speaker 1: steel Man case that may offer.

1203
01:01:00,760 --> 01:01:03,080
Speaker 8: Yeah, yeah, so we shouldn't be sure that super intelligence

1204
01:01:03,160 --> 01:01:06,000
Speaker 8: is coming soon, Like I'm not sure, you know, like

1205
01:01:06,080 --> 01:01:09,600
Speaker 8: we I was giving my median, not my like it's

1206
01:01:09,640 --> 01:01:12,160
Speaker 8: definitely going to happen, right, So I have this long

1207
01:01:12,200 --> 01:01:14,400
Speaker 8: tail of probability mass like maybe it's gonna maybe it's

1208
01:01:14,400 --> 01:01:15,840
Speaker 8: gonna take ten more years, maybe it's going to take

1209
01:01:15,840 --> 01:01:16,480
Speaker 8: twenty more years.

1210
01:01:16,560 --> 01:01:16,680
Speaker 1: You know.

1211
01:01:18,080 --> 01:01:21,160
Speaker 8: However, I think that probably it will happen in the

1212
01:01:21,240 --> 01:01:24,640
Speaker 8: next five to ten years or so, and we need

1213
01:01:24,720 --> 01:01:27,960
Speaker 8: to be prepared for that. In terms of like do

1214
01:01:28,080 --> 01:01:29,880
Speaker 8: these companies believe it? I would say they probably have

1215
01:01:29,920 --> 01:01:32,880
Speaker 8: a similar attitude towards it. To me, there's different people

1216
01:01:32,880 --> 01:01:34,840
Speaker 8: at the companies. Some people think it's farther away, some

1217
01:01:34,960 --> 01:01:35,880
Speaker 8: people think it's closer.

1218
01:01:36,400 --> 01:01:36,560
Speaker 4: You know.

1219
01:01:36,680 --> 01:01:38,160
Speaker 8: Just the other day I was talking to someone who

1220
01:01:38,240 --> 01:01:41,760
Speaker 8: has who works at one of these companies, who who

1221
01:01:41,800 --> 01:01:47,000
Speaker 8: thinks it's coming sooner than I think. But probably the

1222
01:01:47,040 --> 01:01:48,960
Speaker 8: reasonable thing that most people would agree on is that,

1223
01:01:49,040 --> 01:01:50,840
Speaker 8: like it could happen in the next few years, or

1224
01:01:50,880 --> 01:01:51,520
Speaker 8: maybe it won't.

1225
01:01:51,880 --> 01:01:52,040
Speaker 1: You know.

1226
01:01:53,880 --> 01:01:57,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, Can I ask you sort of philosophically, because I

1227
01:01:57,720 --> 01:02:00,880
Speaker 2: think this gets to what would be quote unquote like

1228
01:02:01,040 --> 01:02:05,080
Speaker 2: motive of a super intelligence to effectively take over everything

1229
01:02:05,320 --> 01:02:08,440
Speaker 2: in the world. How do you think about what AI

1230
01:02:08,680 --> 01:02:11,080
Speaker 2: actually is. I mean, do you even think of it

1231
01:02:11,160 --> 01:02:14,520
Speaker 2: as saying that it could have a motive or like

1232
01:02:14,600 --> 01:02:18,080
Speaker 2: a level of consciousness or a series of you know,

1233
01:02:18,200 --> 01:02:21,720
Speaker 2: sort of like personal goals the way that humans do.

1234
01:02:21,880 --> 01:02:25,000
Speaker 2: How do you think about what is actually being grown

1235
01:02:25,080 --> 01:02:26,280
Speaker 2: and created in these labs?

1236
01:02:27,160 --> 01:02:29,960
Speaker 8: Yeah, So I'm glad you mentioned the phrase grown, because

1237
01:02:29,960 --> 01:02:32,000
Speaker 8: that's another important thing for the public to understand is

1238
01:02:32,040 --> 01:02:35,920
Speaker 8: that these they are sort of technically pieces of software,

1239
01:02:35,960 --> 01:02:38,160
Speaker 8: but they're not software in the ordinary sense. They are

1240
01:02:39,440 --> 01:02:44,520
Speaker 8: giant neural nets that are grown rather than constructed. So

1241
01:02:45,280 --> 01:02:46,720
Speaker 8: and that that is a source of a lot of

1242
01:02:46,760 --> 01:02:49,440
Speaker 8: the problems for alignment, is that we don't really understand

1243
01:02:49,480 --> 01:02:52,560
Speaker 8: how they work because we didn't design them. Instead, we

1244
01:02:52,640 --> 01:02:57,720
Speaker 8: sort of grew them, were trained them in various training environments. Yeah,

1245
01:02:57,800 --> 01:03:01,480
Speaker 8: to answer your question, I mean there's I actually I

1246
01:03:01,640 --> 01:03:03,720
Speaker 8: used to be an academic philosopher, like that was what

1247
01:03:03,800 --> 01:03:07,560
Speaker 8: I studied in college. So I have a lot to

1248
01:03:07,600 --> 01:03:10,840
Speaker 8: say about machine consciousness and you know, how it might

1249
01:03:10,920 --> 01:03:13,439
Speaker 8: relate to human consciousness and so forth, But I also

1250
01:03:13,480 --> 01:03:17,440
Speaker 8: think that it doesn't actually matter that much for these discussions.

1251
01:03:18,720 --> 01:03:21,360
Speaker 8: An analogy I would bring up is to is a corporation, Like,

1252
01:03:21,480 --> 01:03:26,920
Speaker 8: does a corporation have goals? Does a corporation have intentions? Yeah, basically,

1253
01:03:27,200 --> 01:03:28,840
Speaker 8: I mean maybe not in the same way that humans do,

1254
01:03:29,040 --> 01:03:33,160
Speaker 8: but it's reasonable to say, like, oh, like Microsoft sees

1255
01:03:33,440 --> 01:03:37,080
Speaker 8: Google as a competitor, and Microsoft wants to beat Google

1256
01:03:37,280 --> 01:03:41,880
Speaker 8: and make profits. You know, like these are reasonable abstractions

1257
01:03:41,920 --> 01:03:47,080
Speaker 8: to describe corporations. And in a similar way, again, the

1258
01:03:47,200 --> 01:03:51,280
Speaker 8: plan is to have a sort of corporation within a corporation.

1259
01:03:51,440 --> 01:03:54,160
Speaker 8: The plan is to make an army of AIS and

1260
01:03:54,400 --> 01:03:57,680
Speaker 8: have them autonomously do AI research to build better AIS

1261
01:03:58,000 --> 01:04:01,080
Speaker 8: and then build better AIS and so forth. And you know,

1262
01:04:01,200 --> 01:04:03,800
Speaker 8: how is that army of AI is going to be organized? Well,

1263
01:04:03,840 --> 01:04:06,560
Speaker 8: I don't know, maybe something like an internal corporation. There's

1264
01:04:06,840 --> 01:04:08,040
Speaker 8: the point is there's going to be a group of

1265
01:04:08,080 --> 01:04:10,960
Speaker 8: them and they'll be you know, sending messages back and forth,

1266
01:04:11,000 --> 01:04:12,800
Speaker 8: and they'll be working towards goals, and they'll be like

1267
01:04:12,880 --> 01:04:15,440
Speaker 8: tracking their own progress towards those goals, and they'll be

1268
01:04:15,640 --> 01:04:17,560
Speaker 8: communicating with the outside world and so forth. And so

1269
01:04:18,280 --> 01:04:21,000
Speaker 8: you know, that corporation of AIS you can think of

1270
01:04:21,080 --> 01:04:24,120
Speaker 8: as like a human corporation. You can abstractly describe it

1271
01:04:24,240 --> 01:04:27,760
Speaker 8: as working towards goals as wanting things, you know, et cetera.

1272
01:04:29,000 --> 01:04:32,920
Speaker 8: And the question is what will those goals be, And

1273
01:04:35,120 --> 01:04:39,280
Speaker 8: the company will be writing up a spec. Open Eye

1274
01:04:39,320 --> 01:04:41,800
Speaker 8: has something called the Models PEC. They also have their

1275
01:04:41,840 --> 01:04:46,040
Speaker 8: various public statements about what they're trying to do right,

1276
01:04:46,160 --> 01:04:49,640
Speaker 8: and so the company will basically be trying to give

1277
01:04:49,760 --> 01:04:52,480
Speaker 8: goals to their AIS. They'll be trying to say, go

1278
01:04:52,600 --> 01:04:54,720
Speaker 8: out and make all this money for us, but also

1279
01:04:54,840 --> 01:04:58,240
Speaker 8: obey the law and also be ethical and you know,

1280
01:04:58,520 --> 01:04:59,959
Speaker 8: but really we want you to make lots of money,

1281
01:05:00,080 --> 01:05:02,080
Speaker 8: and also we want you to beat China. And they'll

1282
01:05:02,080 --> 01:05:05,560
Speaker 8: be giving all these you know, instructions and goals to

1283
01:05:05,800 --> 01:05:10,880
Speaker 8: their army of AIS, and maybe that works, and maybe

1284
01:05:11,440 --> 01:05:13,200
Speaker 8: then we get into the sort of constitution of power

1285
01:05:13,240 --> 01:05:17,000
Speaker 8: problems of who gets to be in charge. But also,

1286
01:05:17,120 --> 01:05:19,280
Speaker 8: I would say, and I think many other researchers in

1287
01:05:19,280 --> 01:05:21,200
Speaker 8: the field would say, that we are not on track

1288
01:05:21,280 --> 01:05:23,280
Speaker 8: for that to even work on a technical level right now.

1289
01:05:23,480 --> 01:05:26,040
Speaker 8: Like the AIS don't always do what they're told to do,

1290
01:05:26,440 --> 01:05:28,720
Speaker 8: and they often seem to pursue goals that are different

1291
01:05:29,120 --> 01:05:31,960
Speaker 8: from what they're supposed to be pursuing, and so I

1292
01:05:32,000 --> 01:05:33,840
Speaker 8: think it's a very live possibility, and in fact, I

1293
01:05:33,840 --> 01:05:37,560
Speaker 8: would say it's the most likely possibility that the goals

1294
01:05:37,600 --> 01:05:40,680
Speaker 8: that this sort of AI corporation ends up optimizing for

1295
01:05:41,440 --> 01:05:44,480
Speaker 8: are importantly different from the goals that they're supposed to.

1296
01:05:44,480 --> 01:05:45,080
Speaker 7: Be optimizing for.

1297
01:05:45,640 --> 01:05:48,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, you decided to leave open AI and the

1298
01:05:48,800 --> 01:05:50,400
Speaker 2: path of sort of trying to shape things on the

1299
01:05:50,440 --> 01:05:53,880
Speaker 2: inside to be out in the public sphere and writing

1300
01:05:53,920 --> 01:05:56,240
Speaker 2: reports like this and doing appearances like this to try

1301
01:05:56,280 --> 01:05:59,920
Speaker 2: to raise public awareness. We have a very politically engaged

1302
01:06:00,080 --> 01:06:02,200
Speaker 2: audience that would be listening to you right now.

1303
01:06:02,840 --> 01:06:04,200
Speaker 5: What do you want them to do?

1304
01:06:04,720 --> 01:06:07,480
Speaker 2: Like, what do you want them to be pushing their

1305
01:06:07,760 --> 01:06:10,560
Speaker 2: lawmakers for? You know, how do you think that the

1306
01:06:10,640 --> 01:06:12,440
Speaker 2: public can be enlisted in your project?

1307
01:06:13,160 --> 01:06:15,120
Speaker 8: Well, I would say the main thing right now is

1308
01:06:15,200 --> 01:06:18,840
Speaker 8: wake up and pay attention because the future is uncertain,

1309
01:06:19,320 --> 01:06:22,000
Speaker 8: and you know, I think that i'd much rather have

1310
01:06:22,080 --> 01:06:25,320
Speaker 8: someone who's paying attention and like going to advocate for

1311
01:06:25,520 --> 01:06:28,240
Speaker 8: the good things at the right time, then someone who

1312
01:06:28,320 --> 01:06:30,240
Speaker 8: does the sort of like fire and forget, Like I'm

1313
01:06:30,240 --> 01:06:32,320
Speaker 8: going to send my letter to the congressman about like

1314
01:06:32,400 --> 01:06:35,040
Speaker 8: this one particular bill that I heard about, and then

1315
01:06:35,080 --> 01:06:37,880
Speaker 8: I'm going to tune out, So that'd be the first

1316
01:06:37,920 --> 01:06:40,160
Speaker 8: thing is wake up and pay attention to start tracking

1317
01:06:40,160 --> 01:06:42,160
Speaker 8: what's happening, start thinking about how things might go in

1318
01:06:42,200 --> 01:06:44,560
Speaker 8: the future, what could be done about it. In terms

1319
01:06:44,560 --> 01:06:49,080
Speaker 8: of immedia asks, we generally I recommend transparency. There should

1320
01:06:49,080 --> 01:06:53,080
Speaker 8: be transparency requirements for these companies so that in the

1321
01:06:53,240 --> 01:06:56,640
Speaker 8: run up to the intelligence explosion, it is a big

1322
01:06:56,920 --> 01:06:58,880
Speaker 8: topic in the news that we are in the run

1323
01:06:59,000 --> 01:07:01,360
Speaker 8: up to an intelligences I want to avoid a situation

1324
01:07:01,400 --> 01:07:06,040
Speaker 8: where this happens in secret, right, so I think that

1325
01:07:06,120 --> 01:07:11,160
Speaker 8: there should be requirements for whistleblower protections, requirements for you know,

1326
01:07:11,600 --> 01:07:14,640
Speaker 8: being transparent about what goals and principles you're trying to

1327
01:07:14,680 --> 01:07:17,520
Speaker 8: put into your models, including your internal models requirement. This

1328
01:07:17,640 --> 01:07:20,760
Speaker 8: is a spect transparency. I think there should be requirements

1329
01:07:20,840 --> 01:07:26,080
Speaker 8: for transparency about your projections for uh, you know, how

1330
01:07:26,160 --> 01:07:28,680
Speaker 8: close you are to automating AI research, and how fast

1331
01:07:28,720 --> 01:07:30,480
Speaker 8: things are going to go after you automate AI research,

1332
01:07:30,600 --> 01:07:33,000
Speaker 8: and how good your AIS are getting and things like that.

1333
01:07:33,280 --> 01:07:35,720
Speaker 8: And I think there should be transparency about the evidence

1334
01:07:36,120 --> 01:07:40,840
Speaker 8: for the alignment stuff. So when you have like for example,

1335
01:07:42,640 --> 01:07:46,080
Speaker 8: Grock has this interesting tendency, or at least it did two,

1336
01:07:47,520 --> 01:07:51,080
Speaker 8: do searches for what Elon Musk's opinions were, and then

1337
01:07:51,360 --> 01:07:56,040
Speaker 8: copy those opinions when being asked, Right, that's an interesting tendency.

1338
01:07:56,880 --> 01:08:00,400
Speaker 8: Was that, you know, put in there by XAI or

1339
01:08:00,560 --> 01:08:03,320
Speaker 8: was that sort of an emergent thing that Grock decided

1340
01:08:03,360 --> 01:08:05,920
Speaker 8: to do. That seems like an important thing that the

1341
01:08:05,960 --> 01:08:08,760
Speaker 8: public should know. People at XAI have done an investigation

1342
01:08:08,880 --> 01:08:11,400
Speaker 8: into this. Maybe that investigation should be made public, you know.

1343
01:08:11,800 --> 01:08:13,880
Speaker 8: That's that's an example of the sort of thing that

1344
01:08:13,880 --> 01:08:15,640
Speaker 8: I think there should be transparency requirements for.

1345
01:08:16,040 --> 01:08:18,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a great idea, just you know, fully transparent.

1346
01:08:18,520 --> 01:08:20,479
Speaker 1: I used to think about this with social media moderation.

1347
01:08:20,640 --> 01:08:22,200
Speaker 1: You can moderate what you want, but you've got to

1348
01:08:22,240 --> 01:08:25,040
Speaker 1: publish the standards. It can't just be up to you know, X,

1349
01:08:25,120 --> 01:08:26,760
Speaker 1: Y and Z person and you can set these you know,

1350
01:08:26,880 --> 01:08:30,160
Speaker 1: through the FCC, through Congress. It's not that difficult. You

1351
01:08:30,280 --> 01:08:31,800
Speaker 1: just have to have the political will to do so.

1352
01:08:32,600 --> 01:08:34,559
Speaker 8: That's right, And I think the transparency helps with both

1353
01:08:34,600 --> 01:08:36,840
Speaker 8: the conservation of power and the loss of control stuff,

1354
01:08:37,280 --> 01:08:39,479
Speaker 8: and also more generally, it sets us up in a

1355
01:08:39,560 --> 01:08:44,440
Speaker 8: position to make like and better and more serious actions

1356
01:08:45,000 --> 01:08:49,040
Speaker 8: later and certainly there I would say, basically, let's not

1357
01:08:49,200 --> 01:08:51,479
Speaker 8: do an intelligence explosion, you know, how about how about

1358
01:08:51,479 --> 01:08:53,160
Speaker 8: we don't you know, how about we don't put the

1359
01:08:53,160 --> 01:08:57,639
Speaker 8: as in charge of self improving rapidly. How About instead

1360
01:08:57,720 --> 01:09:00,519
Speaker 8: we sort of coordinate all the different companies, including the

1361
01:09:00,600 --> 01:09:04,840
Speaker 8: ones in China to proceed cautiously around that time, and

1362
01:09:05,120 --> 01:09:07,720
Speaker 8: you know, get the safety stuff right, make sure we

1363
01:09:07,760 --> 01:09:10,840
Speaker 8: shoulgure out how alignment and also make sure the power

1364
01:09:10,960 --> 01:09:13,680
Speaker 8: is sort of continues to be spread out across a

1365
01:09:13,720 --> 01:09:15,880
Speaker 8: bunch of different places instead of a sort of winner

1366
01:09:15,920 --> 01:09:18,920
Speaker 8: takes all, whoever does the intelligence explosion first wins sort

1367
01:09:18,960 --> 01:09:23,240
Speaker 8: of thing. Unfortunately, that's going to take serious government action, right, Like,

1368
01:09:23,320 --> 01:09:26,280
Speaker 8: you can't just get everyone to stop the race by

1369
01:09:26,560 --> 01:09:30,679
Speaker 8: asking politely, which is why we need to transparency first,

1370
01:09:30,920 --> 01:09:33,000
Speaker 8: to sort of like make sure that the whole world

1371
01:09:33,080 --> 01:09:35,519
Speaker 8: is aware of the race and aware of what's happening,

1372
01:09:35,880 --> 01:09:38,840
Speaker 8: and aware of how much how little time is left,

1373
01:09:39,360 --> 01:09:42,560
Speaker 8: you know, to sort of like provide the information and

1374
01:09:42,680 --> 01:09:43,760
Speaker 8: the political will to.

1375
01:09:44,080 --> 01:09:44,599
Speaker 7: Make a deal.

1376
01:09:45,600 --> 01:09:48,320
Speaker 2: All seems very reasonable to me, guys. The website is

1377
01:09:48,400 --> 01:09:52,080
Speaker 2: ai dash twenty twenty seven dot com. It's it's very readable,

1378
01:09:52,080 --> 01:09:54,040
Speaker 2: I mean, you make it very approachable in terms of

1379
01:09:54,080 --> 01:09:55,760
Speaker 2: the language that you use. You don't need to be, like,

1380
01:09:55,920 --> 01:09:58,000
Speaker 2: you know, a tech guy in order to or tech

1381
01:09:58,040 --> 01:10:00,360
Speaker 2: gal in order to be able to under stand it.

1382
01:10:00,439 --> 01:10:02,280
Speaker 2: So Daniel, thank you so much for your work, and

1383
01:10:02,280 --> 01:10:03,639
Speaker 2: thank you so much for joining us today.

1384
01:10:03,760 --> 01:10:06,960
Speaker 1: Thanks man, thank you our pleasure. Thanks for watching guys,

1385
01:10:07,000 --> 01:10:09,400
Speaker 1: We appreciate it. Great show for everybody tomorrow with Ryan

1386
01:10:09,479 --> 01:10:10,559
Speaker 1: and Emily. They'll see you then.