WEBVTT - Biden Drops Out, Harris Gains Support 0:00:02.960 --> 0:00:10.840 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 0:00:10.880 --> 0:00:15.040 Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 0:00:15.080 --> 0:00:18.079 Eastern on Apple card playing Android Auto with the Bloomberg 0:00:18.120 --> 0:00:21.440 Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 0:00:21.640 --> 0:00:24.439 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:25.079 --> 0:00:27.160 Yesterday, I'm coming out of the ocean, get back to 0:00:27.200 --> 0:00:29.479 my little group of people. Buddy looks up and says, 0:00:29.480 --> 0:00:31.280 Biden's out. They're like, oh boy, here we go. 0:00:31.360 --> 0:00:32.879 I have a better one for you. Yes, we were 0:00:32.920 --> 0:00:35.400 at the Bloomberg event at the Botanical Gardens and you 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:38.239 could just see like all the media people were like 0:00:38.320 --> 0:00:40.879 on their phones and my daughter's like, Mommy, don't worry 0:00:40.920 --> 0:00:43.000 about it. It's Sunday. And I'm like that, I don't know. 0:00:43.120 --> 0:00:46.040 We're all working now, so the real question is and 0:00:46.120 --> 0:00:48.120 we're all just trying to start to figure out what 0:00:48.680 --> 0:00:51.760 could all this mean. Fortunately, we have a person that 0:00:51.800 --> 0:00:54.440 we pay to do this, Nathan Dean. He's a senior 0:00:54.480 --> 0:00:56.840 policy analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. 0:00:56.880 --> 0:00:57.600 He's in DC. 0:00:57.800 --> 0:00:58.840 He's really good. 0:00:59.640 --> 0:00:59.920 Nathan. 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:02.920 And what's in your sourcing and the people you talk 0:01:03.000 --> 0:01:06.080 to down in DC? What's the feeling today about what 0:01:06.200 --> 0:01:08.559 happened to the Democratic ticket over the last twenty four hours. 0:01:09.360 --> 0:01:11.200 Well, I mean, look, there's been a lot of pressure 0:01:11.240 --> 0:01:13.000 on President Biden over the last couple of weeks to 0:01:13.080 --> 0:01:15.400 drop out, and you know, I think this just culminated 0:01:15.440 --> 0:01:18.400 with this effort that you know, Vice President Kamala Harris 0:01:18.440 --> 0:01:20.800 has filled that void. Now, look, she's not the nominee. 0:01:21.240 --> 0:01:23.320 You know, that doesn't happen until either there's a virtual 0:01:23.400 --> 0:01:26.000 roll call or to the convention. But we've seen so 0:01:26.000 --> 0:01:29.000 many endorsements over the last few hours, and you know, 0:01:29.160 --> 0:01:31.440 just so forth that you know, we're presuming that she 0:01:31.600 --> 0:01:34.640 is the nominee in our research, in our notes, and 0:01:34.680 --> 0:01:36.520 so we put out actually a big note on the 0:01:36.800 --> 0:01:39.240 terminal this morning talking about what would life be like 0:01:39.360 --> 0:01:42.400 under a Harris presidency. And it's a lot of status 0:01:42.480 --> 0:01:45.319 quo for banks, evs, big tech and so forth like that. 0:01:45.640 --> 0:01:47.280 The one caveat is on taxes. 0:01:47.480 --> 0:01:50.120 We've often said that this election is rally the two 0:01:50.160 --> 0:01:53.240 major things about this election are tariffs and taxes, and 0:01:53.320 --> 0:01:56.360 Kamala Harris's record in her tax you know, aspect of 0:01:56.400 --> 0:01:59.320 it has been a little bit more you know, i'd 0:01:59.320 --> 0:02:02.560 say progressive than what President Biden has said, but ultimately 0:02:02.600 --> 0:02:04.640 we viewed President. 0:02:04.280 --> 0:02:05.280 Or as Kamala Harris. 0:02:05.320 --> 0:02:08.000 I'm sorry, we viewed President Biden as moving more towards 0:02:08.080 --> 0:02:11.840 Kamala Harris's policies when he became president, rather than Kamala 0:02:11.880 --> 0:02:14.480 Harris moving towards Biden's policies. So a lot of this 0:02:14.639 --> 0:02:17.360 if she becomes president will be status quo. 0:02:17.720 --> 0:02:19.480 Oh that's really interesting. So I was going to ask, 0:02:19.840 --> 0:02:23.440 where is Vice President Harris farther left than President Biden? 0:02:23.480 --> 0:02:24.880 Where is that biggest daylight? 0:02:25.680 --> 0:02:27.880 So the one thing that we actually hung down on 0:02:28.080 --> 0:02:30.320 was her record as Attorney General, And you know, just 0:02:30.400 --> 0:02:33.919 indicative of one of her actions is she joined about 0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:36.720 forty seven other states, including the District of Columbia, on 0:02:36.760 --> 0:02:40.080 a twenty five billion dollar settlement on home foreclosure practices. 0:02:40.320 --> 0:02:42.560 And a lot of her campaign speeches when she was 0:02:42.639 --> 0:02:45.400 running president in twenty twenty was talking about how she 0:02:45.440 --> 0:02:48.000 took on big banks. Now, you know, to us, that 0:02:48.040 --> 0:02:51.000 means there's a lot more consumer protection coming in the cards, 0:02:51.280 --> 0:02:54.360 whether it's the Consumer for Financial Protection Bureau, or whether 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:56.799 it comes through acts of Congress, or maybe it's even 0:02:56.840 --> 0:03:01.640 executive orders like continuing President Biden DoD debt relief pans. 0:03:01.680 --> 0:03:02.960 But I think there's going to be a lot of 0:03:02.960 --> 0:03:06.080 focus on this idea of load to middle income consumers, 0:03:06.320 --> 0:03:09.320 protections against big corporations, and a lot more in terms 0:03:09.360 --> 0:03:11.840 of disclosures and so forth like that. Now, is this 0:03:11.919 --> 0:03:15.200 a material impact on big tech or on the big banks. 0:03:15.560 --> 0:03:16.120 Probably not. 0:03:16.280 --> 0:03:18.440 A lot of it has to get pass through Congress, 0:03:18.480 --> 0:03:20.959 but ultimately it's certainly a headline risk that I would 0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:23.720 keep in mind for those sectors in particular, is just 0:03:23.720 --> 0:03:25.839 to keep in mind, you know that if she were 0:03:25.840 --> 0:03:28.320 to focus on this, and specifically it was just pick 0:03:28.320 --> 0:03:30.320 on anti trust, If she were to focus on anti trust, 0:03:30.520 --> 0:03:33.280 there's a lot of you know, intense scrutiny, more scrutiny 0:03:33.320 --> 0:03:35.600 than she could put there than a Biden administration could. 0:03:36.120 --> 0:03:37.600 All Right, a lot of my M and A banker 0:03:37.600 --> 0:03:42.880 buddies are wondering what would a Harris administration mean for antitrust? 0:03:42.920 --> 0:03:45.720 Because Biden's been nobody into the M and A world. 0:03:45.800 --> 0:03:47.840 What's the is a feeling status quo there as well? 0:03:48.440 --> 0:03:50.960 You know, this is one of those situations where I think, 0:03:51.000 --> 0:03:53.880 whoever wins as president's probably not going to be helpful 0:03:53.920 --> 0:03:56.440 to your M and A banker buddies. Because on one 0:03:56.480 --> 0:03:59.320 hand you have the continuation of the Biden presidency with 0:03:59.440 --> 0:04:02.200 Lena Khan at the FTC and taking a very skeptical, 0:04:02.640 --> 0:04:05.280 skeptical look at mergers. I mean just in the financial 0:04:05.280 --> 0:04:07.880 space alone. You know, some of these merger reviews go 0:04:07.960 --> 0:04:09.800 over a year, if not longer, and you know we 0:04:09.840 --> 0:04:12.320 saw it certainly with the TD Financial merger. They pulled 0:04:12.360 --> 0:04:14.040 out as a result of this. But then on the 0:04:14.080 --> 0:04:16.840 flip side, you have Senator Advance and President Trump. And 0:04:16.880 --> 0:04:20.440 remember this idea of economic popularism is ramped through that. 0:04:20.960 --> 0:04:23.440 You know that RNC agenda at the moment. So you know, 0:04:23.480 --> 0:04:25.720 Senator Vance even came down to a Bloomberg event here 0:04:25.720 --> 0:04:29.120 in Washington and called Lena Kahan, the FTC chairwoman Biden's 0:04:29.160 --> 0:04:32.560 best picked and insinuated that President Biden would even probably 0:04:32.640 --> 0:04:34.600 are President Trump should even keep around. Now, I don't 0:04:34.600 --> 0:04:37.000 think this is going to happen, but for unfortunately Paul, 0:04:37.000 --> 0:04:39.320 for your M and A banker buddies, I don't think 0:04:39.360 --> 0:04:41.920 any other way this gets around, whether it's Harris or Trump, 0:04:42.000 --> 0:04:44.680 it's going to be a very skeptical world for anti 0:04:44.680 --> 0:04:45.359 trust in M and A. 0:04:45.600 --> 0:04:47.800 So Paul's talking to his ma buddies. I'm thinking about 0:04:47.800 --> 0:04:51.360 my energy buddies, because one area where it feels like 0:04:51.600 --> 0:04:56.200 President President Harris could be farther left, of course his energy. 0:04:56.240 --> 0:04:58.800 I was telling Paul earlier that she's been kind of 0:04:58.800 --> 0:05:02.719 anti fracking, she's been anti offshore. California is notoriously not 0:05:02.839 --> 0:05:05.800 loving any fossil fuels. How much of that do you 0:05:05.800 --> 0:05:07.599 think we have to really start considering. 0:05:08.400 --> 0:05:09.720 I think it's important to consider it. 0:05:09.760 --> 0:05:11.680 In fact, our colleague Rob Barnett just put out a 0:05:11.720 --> 0:05:14.120 note about forty minutes ago talking about this in the 0:05:14.160 --> 0:05:17.159 importance it has on the renewable sector. So, you know, 0:05:17.200 --> 0:05:19.560 a Senator sorry, I was going to say Senator Harris. 0:05:19.680 --> 0:05:22.920 Vice President Harris, you know, certainly has pursued a clean 0:05:23.040 --> 0:05:25.479 energy agenda. And one of the things we see in 0:05:25.880 --> 0:05:28.560 you know, her presidency is a boosting of the Inflation 0:05:28.680 --> 0:05:30.599 Reduction Act. I don't want to say going back to 0:05:30.640 --> 0:05:32.880 the build back better three point zero, you know, some 0:05:32.920 --> 0:05:34.840 of the ideas that were floating around. She'll have her 0:05:34.839 --> 0:05:37.240 own ideas here, but this idea of the Inflation Reduction 0:05:37.320 --> 0:05:40.240 Act needs to be protected and enhanced. So if you're 0:05:40.240 --> 0:05:42.799 in the renewable sector or solar sector, it certainly could 0:05:42.800 --> 0:05:47.480 be a boon idea if you know, Vice President Harris wins, 0:05:47.680 --> 0:05:50.320 but I would also just recommend it, or you know, 0:05:50.360 --> 0:05:52.440 I would also just offer this that A lot of 0:05:52.480 --> 0:05:55.640 it also depends on who takes up Congress, because if 0:05:55.720 --> 0:05:58.400 Vice President Harris wins and the Republicans take one, if 0:05:58.400 --> 0:06:01.080 not two members chambers of the House, then a lot 0:06:01.120 --> 0:06:03.400 of those initiatives are going to be scaled down and 0:06:03.480 --> 0:06:05.920 actually dramatically lowered and so forth like that. 0:06:06.520 --> 0:06:10.240 All right, we know Elon Musk is a big supporter 0:06:10.320 --> 0:06:14.039 of Trump, but it sounds like, what's what would a 0:06:14.080 --> 0:06:18.280 democratic Harris administration mean for the Elon muscle of the 0:06:18.320 --> 0:06:19.080 world and the evs. 0:06:19.920 --> 0:06:21.880 So, you know, for the EV side, I think it's 0:06:21.920 --> 0:06:25.080 actually a continuation of the Inflation Reduction Act tax credit, 0:06:25.120 --> 0:06:27.360 if not an enhancement of that. You know, Look, tax 0:06:27.360 --> 0:06:29.080 reform is going to have to happen next year no 0:06:29.120 --> 0:06:31.640 matter what, because the Trump era tax cuts for individuals 0:06:31.920 --> 0:06:34.479 expires at the tail end of twenty twenty five. And 0:06:34.680 --> 0:06:36.920 whether it's Vice President Harris or a President Trump, neither 0:06:36.920 --> 0:06:39.600 of them are going to want to increase taxes for 0:06:39.920 --> 0:06:42.320 low and middle and income you know, Americans. 0:06:42.600 --> 0:06:43.800 So for the EV's of the world. 0:06:43.800 --> 0:06:46.839 I would say, under a Harris presidency, you'll certainly have 0:06:46.920 --> 0:06:50.279 protection from that tax credit in the IRA, You potentially 0:06:50.320 --> 0:06:53.120 could have an enhancement of that. You certainly will have 0:06:53.160 --> 0:06:54.680 regulatory policies. 0:06:54.240 --> 0:06:56.600 Trying to boost EV usage and so forth like that. 0:06:56.880 --> 0:06:59.800 Comparing it against the President Trump presidency, where you know, 0:06:59.800 --> 0:07:02.279 he said that he doesn't like electric vehicles. Obviously he 0:07:02.320 --> 0:07:05.360 has Elon Musk whispering in his ear and providing forty 0:07:05.400 --> 0:07:07.960 five million dollars a month in PAC funding. But ultimately 0:07:08.040 --> 0:07:10.560 I think the Republicans you probably would see a scaling 0:07:10.600 --> 0:07:14.200 back of those tax credits, maybe you know, just additional 0:07:14.360 --> 0:07:16.640 you know, restrictions on EV's and so forth like that. 0:07:17.080 --> 0:07:19.040 But you know, with the Trump presidency, we'll have to 0:07:19.040 --> 0:07:21.880 see if he wins and also if the Elon Musk 0:07:21.960 --> 0:07:25.400 is whispering in his ear in come January and February taxes. 0:07:26.600 --> 0:07:30.000 If former President Trump were to get a second term, 0:07:30.080 --> 0:07:33.560 is there any consensus in Washington given the makeup of Congress. 0:07:33.600 --> 0:07:35.400 I guess we have to see how Congress shakes out. 0:07:35.400 --> 0:07:39.960 But what, if anything could Trump administration get done on taxes? 0:07:40.560 --> 0:07:42.240 Yeah, So, you know, the way I think about the 0:07:42.280 --> 0:07:44.840 tax debate with my colleague Andrew Silverman is really print 0:07:44.920 --> 0:07:45.400 some timing. 0:07:45.480 --> 0:07:46.840 So the first thing you'll note is the election. 0:07:47.240 --> 0:07:49.640 If the Republicans take the House and the Senate and 0:07:49.680 --> 0:07:53.040 the Presidency, then they have this opportunity for reconciliation. This 0:07:53.120 --> 0:07:54.840 is how they got the Trump era tax cuts through 0:07:55.040 --> 0:07:57.800 in twenty seventeen. It allows them to actually move forth 0:07:57.800 --> 0:08:00.920 and enhance or you know, essentially conduct reform, and they 0:08:00.960 --> 0:08:03.360 can bypass the Democrats. So if the Republicans win the 0:08:03.360 --> 0:08:06.040 House of the Senate and the Presidency, then this President 0:08:06.080 --> 0:08:08.600 Trump's idea of lowering corporate tax rates is certainly in 0:08:08.640 --> 0:08:09.080 the carts. 0:08:09.320 --> 0:08:11.800 Now. I have seen statements from House Republicans saying. 0:08:11.920 --> 0:08:13.800 Maybe we don't want to do that so much, but 0:08:13.840 --> 0:08:16.560 I do think that this would be President Trump driving this. Now, 0:08:16.600 --> 0:08:18.600 if you get more of a gridlock Congress, well, then 0:08:18.720 --> 0:08:21.240 the power of Congress, the power of Congress is going 0:08:21.320 --> 0:08:23.320 to come out and the House in ways and means committee, 0:08:23.360 --> 0:08:25.520 whoever controls it, is certainly going to want to play 0:08:25.560 --> 0:08:28.040 here and tell the Presidency this is what we think. 0:08:28.120 --> 0:08:29.160 And so if you get a. 0:08:29.160 --> 0:08:32.240 Gridlock Congress, a lot of the tax reform or tax 0:08:32.280 --> 0:08:34.160 relief ideas that are out there are going to be 0:08:34.360 --> 0:08:37.160 scaled down or narrowed, but with one objective not to 0:08:37.240 --> 0:08:42.880 increase the individual tax relief or tax cuts. 0:08:41.400 --> 0:08:42.439 For that individual. 0:08:42.480 --> 0:08:45.200 If you get President Harris, you may see tax increases 0:08:45.200 --> 0:08:47.480 for individuals who make greater than four hundred thousand dollars, 0:08:47.720 --> 0:08:50.240 but I think most individuals in the United States at 0:08:50.240 --> 0:08:52.040 the end of twenty twenty five probably won't have their 0:08:52.080 --> 0:08:53.280 taxes altered all that much. 0:08:53.800 --> 0:08:56.440 Literally, my head hurts from all the different possibilities. I 0:08:56.520 --> 0:08:58.439 do not know how you do this, naythan on a 0:08:58.520 --> 0:09:01.000 daily base of all the individ sectors. Okay, before I 0:09:01.080 --> 0:09:03.720 let you go, now what like now are you paying 0:09:03.720 --> 0:09:06.200 attention for what is most on your radar? Now as 0:09:06.240 --> 0:09:08.600 you go talk to clients, so you. 0:09:08.520 --> 0:09:10.800 Know, the most important thing for us is obviously say, 0:09:10.880 --> 0:09:13.439 you know, does Kamala Harris become the vice president or 0:09:13.679 --> 0:09:14.760 presidential nominee. 0:09:14.800 --> 0:09:15.520 I think she will. 0:09:16.000 --> 0:09:17.920 Just remember the Democrats have to have a virtual roll 0:09:17.960 --> 0:09:19.680 call to get their person on the ballot for the 0:09:19.679 --> 0:09:22.240 state of Ohio. I would anticipate that starting in August. 0:09:22.320 --> 0:09:24.840 First next thing would be, you know, Kamala Harris's vice 0:09:24.880 --> 0:09:28.160 presidential pick. We're cautioning clients. Look, she has plenty of time. 0:09:28.320 --> 0:09:29.679 She's going to do this in a way that it's 0:09:29.679 --> 0:09:32.560 politically advantageous to her, and she doesn't have to name 0:09:32.600 --> 0:09:35.240 somebody until the convention in Chicago in mid to late August. 0:09:35.360 --> 0:09:37.680 So you know, those are the probably the two most 0:09:37.679 --> 0:09:40.480 important things. But also just remember, on the flip side, 0:09:40.559 --> 0:09:43.120 the tariff argument for President Trump is real, and it's 0:09:43.120 --> 0:09:45.319 certainly a risk that I think investors should pay attention to. 0:09:45.960 --> 0:09:48.840 All Right, Nathan, thank you so much. We appreciate you 0:09:49.200 --> 0:09:52.280 really really great stuff. Nathan Dean Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Policy Research. 0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:54.319 I cannot recommend his research enough because it can go 0:09:54.400 --> 0:09:56.760 into all the different sectors as well as kind of 0:09:56.800 --> 0:10:00.000 game out the different possibilities and where we kind of 0:10:00.120 --> 0:10:00.880 go up from here. 0:10:02.360 --> 0:10:04.640 So I guess that virtual role call thing or the 0:10:04.720 --> 0:10:07.240 virtual that's a key date, right. 0:10:07.200 --> 0:10:10.000 Yeah, apparently that happens between August first and August seventh. 0:10:10.040 --> 0:10:12.760 That's what I was reading about yesterday, And I'm just 0:10:12.800 --> 0:10:15.120 my mind is also spinning as to what winds up 0:10:15.160 --> 0:10:17.920 going to the courts in terms of where the money 0:10:17.960 --> 0:10:20.240 is accessed and who was able to get control of 0:10:20.240 --> 0:10:23.360 all that fundraising money also in terms of getting the 0:10:23.400 --> 0:10:25.599 ticket on the ballot in all the states. 0:10:26.480 --> 0:10:26.920 I don't know. 0:10:27.320 --> 0:10:30.680 I feel like these snap elections that the UK and 0:10:31.080 --> 0:10:33.560 your holds, it just gets it done really quickly. 0:10:33.679 --> 0:10:35.160 You know what I like about the UK is that 0:10:35.160 --> 0:10:37.319 you're not allowed to campaign for a long period of time. 0:10:37.360 --> 0:10:40.480 You have like very strict campaign today. 0:10:40.600 --> 0:10:42.640 How about the signs on the lawn thing? Is there 0:10:42.679 --> 0:10:45.599 any rules on that? Guess that's a big issue for 0:10:45.679 --> 0:10:46.839 us at in suburbia. 0:10:46.960 --> 0:10:48.880 I don't think you can do that. I mean, I'm 0:10:48.920 --> 0:10:50.240 kind of making that up, but I mean they have 0:10:50.320 --> 0:10:53.000 some strong restrictions. Anyway. 0:10:53.200 --> 0:10:57.080 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:10:57.160 --> 0:11:00.040 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple card Play and 0:11:00.240 --> 0:11:03.160 Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business Act. You can also 0:11:03.200 --> 0:11:06.400 listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York 0:11:06.440 --> 0:11:09.880 station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:11:11.480 --> 0:11:14.200 Let's continue the conversation of what President Biden dropping out 0:11:14.280 --> 0:11:17.560 of the presidential race for twenty twenty four means. Wendy Schiller, 0:11:17.760 --> 0:11:21.200 professor at Brown University and interim director of the Watson Institute, 0:11:21.400 --> 0:11:24.720 is standing by. She joins us from Providence Rhode Island. Professor, 0:11:24.760 --> 0:11:27.040 I have so many questions, but one basic one is 0:11:27.880 --> 0:11:31.840 will whoever becomes the next presidential nominee and VP make 0:11:31.920 --> 0:11:34.400 it on all the ballots in all the states? Is 0:11:34.800 --> 0:11:36.559 that a foregone conclusion. 0:11:37.480 --> 0:11:40.040 No, Alex, it's a great question, and good morning to you, 0:11:40.120 --> 0:11:43.480 to Paul, because Republicans are already gearing up to try 0:11:43.520 --> 0:11:48.480 to block access to these ballots in particular states. Now, 0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:51.959 some of the largest states we have maylen blue, like California, 0:11:52.040 --> 0:11:56.240 New York, Illinois, and you know they're democratic. Legislators will 0:11:56.240 --> 0:11:58.320 take care of this. But the Freme Court a long 0:11:58.360 --> 0:12:02.160 time ago your two thousand rules that parties essentially have 0:12:02.320 --> 0:12:06.160 control over their own nominating processes, that even though states 0:12:06.160 --> 0:12:09.920 controlled ballot access, parties can really do whatever they need 0:12:10.000 --> 0:12:13.559 to do to change primaries or nominate people. So it's 0:12:13.600 --> 0:12:14.880 I think it's going to be a tough call if 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:16.439 it actually got all the way up to the Supreme 0:12:16.480 --> 0:12:18.400 Court and exped out of review for them to go 0:12:18.559 --> 0:12:20.959 back on that and all of a sudden say that 0:12:21.240 --> 0:12:24.880 state legislators can actually determine what political parties do. So 0:12:24.960 --> 0:12:27.440 this is going to be the legal wrangling Republicans have 0:12:27.440 --> 0:12:29.400 to decide whether it's worth it to spend the money 0:12:29.440 --> 0:12:32.560 on this, given that the likelihood of prevailing and enough 0:12:32.600 --> 0:12:35.080 states to make a difference right now doesn't look all 0:12:35.120 --> 0:12:35.680 that great. 0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:39.000 All right, Wendy. We are all in uncharted territory here 0:12:39.040 --> 0:12:43.400 in terms of this process, the campaign here for the Democrats. 0:12:43.520 --> 0:12:46.640 Can you leg out how it might plug out? Ie? 0:12:47.080 --> 0:12:50.199 When will the Democratic Party decide whether they are fully 0:12:50.240 --> 0:12:53.520 behind Vice President Harris or they may open it up 0:12:53.559 --> 0:12:56.599 to a grit wider competition. How does that work? Do 0:12:56.640 --> 0:12:56.960 you think? 0:12:57.760 --> 0:12:59.440 Well, you know, a long time ago, or even twenty 0:12:59.520 --> 0:13:02.400 years ago, it was a hierarchy that ran the Democratic Party, 0:13:02.400 --> 0:13:04.720 but just doesn't exist anymore, mostly due to the fact 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:08.560 that the donor class is now independent of party leaders. 0:13:08.679 --> 0:13:11.080 People can give as much money independent of a party, 0:13:11.120 --> 0:13:14.240 so it really is weakened centralizing forces in the party. 0:13:14.360 --> 0:13:17.000 You can have a Trump campaign and Trump himself centralizes 0:13:17.040 --> 0:13:20.320 the party, but otherwise systematically very difficult to do. I 0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:23.560 think you've got some loan voices, particularly President Obama formed 0:13:23.600 --> 0:13:27.480 President Obama's loud voice sort of saying wait a minute, 0:13:27.559 --> 0:13:29.280 but a lot of the people who are in an 0:13:29.320 --> 0:13:33.320 elected office right now around the States are now gearing 0:13:33.320 --> 0:13:36.839 towards Harris, and delegates themselves who are already pledged to 0:13:36.880 --> 0:13:39.319 Biden they're saying at the convention they'll vote for Harris. 0:13:39.440 --> 0:13:42.000 So I think they'll be somewhat of an organic kind 0:13:42.000 --> 0:13:44.640 of organization of a party at the state level. And 0:13:44.720 --> 0:13:47.680 the more elected leaders, especially those running for House and Senate, 0:13:47.920 --> 0:13:51.360 saying they're buying Harris really pushes the party at the 0:13:51.440 --> 0:13:53.960 convention towards Harris. But they want to stay open to 0:13:54.080 --> 0:13:59.200 voices and engage people who have felt disengaged by Biden's refusal. 0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:02.959 To step aside planned tightrope to be walked. To be sure, now, 0:14:03.000 --> 0:14:05.840 before we get to the DNC, there's apparently this virtual 0:14:05.920 --> 0:14:08.960 role called vote between August first and August seventh. What 0:14:09.200 --> 0:14:12.000 is that and if there isn't a consensus behind Harris 0:14:12.040 --> 0:14:13.200 at that point, what happens? 0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:17.160 Well, Alex, this was really pushed by Ohio, the state 0:14:17.200 --> 0:14:19.000 of Ohio that said, you know, you're not going to 0:14:19.040 --> 0:14:21.360 meet our deadline. We're not putting Biden on the ballot 0:14:21.400 --> 0:14:23.760 for president. So they you know, they tried to fix it. 0:14:23.800 --> 0:14:26.800 Mike Dewayne, Republican governors tried to fix it, but nonetheless 0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:29.480 they're up against a very tight deadline that state set 0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:33.480 for determining the ballot. So I think that is the problem, 0:14:33.520 --> 0:14:36.040 and I think this is going to be where Harris 0:14:36.120 --> 0:14:39.080 and whoever she appoints to run her campaign has to 0:14:39.120 --> 0:14:41.400 really literally get on the phone with state party chairs 0:14:41.440 --> 0:14:44.520 who typically know most of the delegates, and the DNC 0:14:44.640 --> 0:14:46.280 has the list of all those names, and you've got 0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:48.520 to get surrogates and yourself to be on the phone 0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:52.640 literally or virtually and talking to people saying, vote for 0:14:52.680 --> 0:14:54.960 me on the first ballot. It's possible she doesn't win 0:14:54.960 --> 0:14:57.240 the nomination on the first ballot, but if it looks 0:14:57.320 --> 0:14:59.800 quite likely and she's almost there, you can see that 0:14:59.840 --> 0:15:02.600 how depending on the second ballot. So it's unclear who 0:15:02.680 --> 0:15:05.360 steps forward to be an alternative. You know who's really 0:15:05.400 --> 0:15:07.800 going to launch a challenge against her? And let's not 0:15:07.840 --> 0:15:11.400 forget core constituency for the Democratic Party, black voters, particularly 0:15:11.400 --> 0:15:15.240 in swing states, and suburban female voters, and you know 0:15:15.400 --> 0:15:19.320 who else fits the bill other than Kamala Harris. And 0:15:19.360 --> 0:15:22.160 that's what the people who don't want to launch support 0:15:22.160 --> 0:15:24.240 for her now have to say to themselves if they 0:15:24.240 --> 0:15:26.120 want to really be viable going against Donald Trump and 0:15:26.200 --> 0:15:26.720 dat events. 0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:30.040 Are you surprised that we've not heard an endorsement from 0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:32.000 President Obama? 0:15:32.480 --> 0:15:34.960 You know, the generous interpretation I like to say is 0:15:35.000 --> 0:15:37.480 that you know, he liked to make sure that disaffected 0:15:37.560 --> 0:15:40.280 voices we saw almost what one hundred thousand uncommitted or 0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:43.520 something in Michigan for Biden in the primary, that those 0:15:43.640 --> 0:15:46.520 voices feel that they're being heard in the platform, and 0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:49.800 who the VP pick might be, I think he's what 0:15:49.840 --> 0:15:52.480 he's trying to do is make sure that people feel engaged. 0:15:52.680 --> 0:15:54.720 And if it just looks like the elites in Washington 0:15:54.840 --> 0:15:57.360 picked Kama Harris, which is not what's happening right now. 0:15:57.440 --> 0:15:59.760 The elites in Washington are not doing that. It's the 0:15:59.760 --> 0:16:01.960 great roots in state level that are doing that. But 0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:04.360 if that's what it looks like, he's worried. I think 0:16:04.560 --> 0:16:07.080 that people won't feel as consulted as he needs them 0:16:07.080 --> 0:16:09.120 to be. If he's a Democrat and he wants to 0:16:09.120 --> 0:16:11.040 make sure he is a Democrat, wants to make sure 0:16:11.080 --> 0:16:14.800 to elect Kamala Harris. But it increasingly looks right now 0:16:14.880 --> 0:16:17.360 that he is out of step with where the party 0:16:17.440 --> 0:16:21.040 is moving quite quickly publicly to support and rally around Harris. 0:16:21.040 --> 0:16:23.760 But that would make sense of why not only Obama, 0:16:23.760 --> 0:16:27.080 but PELUSI is also not setting mum on all of this. 0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:28.840 Before we let you go, we know you got a 0:16:28.880 --> 0:16:32.000 heart out in just about a minute. What kind of 0:16:32.080 --> 0:16:33.880 lawsuits do you think we're going to see to prevent 0:16:33.960 --> 0:16:37.240 whatever ticket we do have for the Democrats lack of 0:16:37.280 --> 0:16:39.200 access to the campaign funds. What do you think is 0:16:39.200 --> 0:16:40.040 going to play out there? 0:16:41.080 --> 0:16:45.120 I mean, I think Republicans will launch every and any 0:16:45.200 --> 0:16:48.360 lawsuit that they can to gum up the system, make 0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:52.440 Democrats spend money to defend what they're doing, even transferring 0:16:52.480 --> 0:16:54.560 the money. It was a Biden Harris ticket, there shouldn't 0:16:54.560 --> 0:16:56.680 be any issue there. They're going to do a lot 0:16:56.760 --> 0:16:59.360 of that because mechanically on the ground, the Democrats are 0:16:59.440 --> 0:17:03.120 much better organized with their infrastructure then the Republicans that 0:17:03.160 --> 0:17:05.680 have relied on the Trump sort of charisma to get 0:17:05.680 --> 0:17:07.840 people out the door. So whatever they can do to 0:17:07.840 --> 0:17:10.919 com it up, they will, and that could hurt some 0:17:11.240 --> 0:17:14.840 of the states. But in terms of re engaging the party, 0:17:14.920 --> 0:17:17.840 it seems as if the Democrats see an opportunity to 0:17:17.880 --> 0:17:21.320 get back on the road, be viable and generate the 0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:24.000 kind of enthusiasm that they've been unable to generate for 0:17:24.080 --> 0:17:24.960 the last six months. 0:17:25.119 --> 0:17:27.080 Wendy, thank you so much. We very much appreciate you. 0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:30.199 When you Schiller, Professor, Brown University and interim Director of 0:17:30.240 --> 0:17:32.440 the Watston Institute. 0:17:32.800 --> 0:17:36.680 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:17:36.760 --> 0:17:39.399 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple card Play and 0:17:39.400 --> 0:17:42.040 then Broud Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on 0:17:42.119 --> 0:17:45.359 demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 0:17:45.480 --> 0:17:46.840 on YouTube. 0:17:47.960 --> 0:17:50.320 This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. We bring you all the 0:17:50.320 --> 0:17:52.520 top news in business and finance and economics. There are 0:17:52.520 --> 0:17:55.280 a lens of Bloomberg Intelligence folks. They cover two thousand 0:17:55.320 --> 0:17:58.600 companies and one hundred and thirty industries all around the world. 0:17:58.680 --> 0:18:02.200 And we also tap our resource is outside of Bloomberg Intelligence. 0:18:02.240 --> 0:18:04.080 And for now we go to Christopher Smart. He's a 0:18:04.160 --> 0:18:07.640 managing partner at Ubroth Capital sorry Aubroath Group, and former 0:18:07.680 --> 0:18:11.320 Special Assistant to the President for International economics and he 0:18:11.400 --> 0:18:14.960 joins us from Boston, Massachusetts. Christopher is great to get 0:18:15.000 --> 0:18:19.919