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Speaker 1: Ladies and gentlemen, It's Bowl season.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: It's the most wonderful time with the kids, jingle belling

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Speaker 3: and everyone telling.

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Speaker 4: You be a good cheer.

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Speaker 3: Hits the most wonderful time.

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Speaker 5: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 5: This is the.

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Speaker 6: Football Betting Weekend Review and Bowl Betting Preview, Part one.

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Speaker 5: I'm stucky with me as always is Colin Wilson. Who

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Speaker 5: hit the links today? How'd you shoot?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 7: Today was I said, name day? That's a game of

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Speaker 7: Thrones terms for birthday. I'm having a hard time breaking

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Speaker 7: ninety on my golf game, so will continue.

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Speaker 5: Because that would be good.

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Speaker 7: That's not I mean, that's bogie golf. I mean, if

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Speaker 7: you can shoot a bogie on every hole, that's ninety golf.

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Speaker 2: I know we have people that actually that shoot way

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Speaker 2: better than that. It's just a personal thing.

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Speaker 7: Like, yeah, I never even took up golf till like

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Speaker 7: two and a half years ago because I was a

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Speaker 7: baseball player for years.

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Speaker 2: So you know, hopefully that's something we can accomplish this year.

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Speaker 6: All right, Well, I'm a good putter. That's about all

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Speaker 6: I can say.

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Speaker 7: You and I tied on the mini golf course and

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Speaker 7: the in the the gambling a.

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Speaker 6: Little Yeah, that's funny. All right, let's I'm not going

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Speaker 6: to go too much into the NFL. It was a

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Speaker 6: pretty boring matchup weekend. I think there was only two

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Speaker 6: playoff teams, that two definitive playoff teams that faced each

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Speaker 6: other during the day, and that was Kansas City New Orleans.

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Speaker 6: Kansas City comes out with a win.

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Speaker 5: I tech.

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Speaker 6: I guess they technically did cover the first time in

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Speaker 6: seven weeks because the line closed minus two and a half.

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Speaker 5: Depending on what number you got there. You could have

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Speaker 5: middled it.

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Speaker 6: You could have got you could have got the Saints

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Speaker 6: plus three and a half, and gas you could have

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Speaker 6: got che minus to just stressed the importance of getting

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Speaker 6: the best number out there, especially around key numbers.

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Speaker 5: I mean, the Bills look great again.

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Speaker 6: I was the asshole out there that bet the the

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Speaker 6: Broncos on Saturday and that didn't go too well.

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Speaker 2: The Bills making the water.

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Speaker 6: And then I guess the shocker of the weekend is

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Speaker 6: the New York Football Jets beat the Rams. Well, I

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Speaker 6: don't know where this came from. The Rams looked like

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Speaker 6: they were hungover, disinterested, and maybe still drunk during the

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Speaker 6: first half of that game, and then they kind of

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Speaker 6: woke up in the second half but couldn't do enough

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Speaker 6: to get the win. And the Jets get the win.

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Speaker 6: The Seahawks take over first place. Now the Jags are

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Speaker 6: the favorite to get the number one overall draft pick,

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Speaker 6: in likely Trevor Lawrence. Speaking of Trevor Lawrence, we're gonna

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Speaker 6: get to a college football recap. Now he will be

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Speaker 6: in college football playoff, as will Alabama, who won but

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Speaker 6: didn't cover.

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Speaker 5: We'll talk about that game.

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Speaker 6: Ohio State who had a scare for a while and

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Speaker 6: a bunch of players out. Guy Ravel, he ended up cashing.

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Speaker 6: I told him not too. I told him let it ride.

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Speaker 6: He's still in me.

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Speaker 5: Five K Daryl.

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Speaker 6: And then the fourth team was Notre Dame. I was

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Speaker 6: shocked at the line this morning was like minus five hundred.

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Speaker 6: That was gonna be Notre Dame. I thought it was

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Speaker 6: a little more in question than that because of how

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Speaker 6: Notre Dame lost. Maybe text A and M had a

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Speaker 6: shot sec Love. Everyone just saw Notre Dame and get crushed.

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Speaker 6: But no, Notre Dame, not against the four Seeds, a

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Speaker 6: three touchdown underdog against Alabama. And now I got to

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Speaker 6: sit here and contemplate how I'm not gonna tell.

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Speaker 5: Her what was value in that line for the next

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Speaker 5: couple of weeks.

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Speaker 6: Any initial thoughts on who should have got in initial lines.

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Speaker 5: I think Clemson's want to touchdown favorite of Ohio State.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean this is I mean, we wrote the

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Speaker 7: piece up with the projections, came out this morning before

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Speaker 7: all of the early show announcing the top four for

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Speaker 7: the playoff, and I said flat out in the article

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Speaker 7: that was released this morning, this is pretty easy. The

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Speaker 7: Committee's going to sit back and look at Notre Dames

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Speaker 7: went over Clemson is the most impressive thing.

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Speaker 2: Nothing Texas, A and M is done, especially you look

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Speaker 2: at some of the wins.

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Speaker 5: That they have.

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Speaker 7: None of that is going to impress the committee. They're

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Speaker 7: not going to slim past Notre Dame, you know, like

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Speaker 7: it or made it. Notre Dame was the team that

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Speaker 7: should have gotten the fourth slot, especially when you take

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Speaker 7: into account.

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Speaker 2: The eyeball revenue. You know what, I've.

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Speaker 7: Believed in this eyeball revenue theory for years, Like when

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Speaker 7: TCU and Baylor were supposedly going to make the College

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Speaker 7: Football Playoff in twenty fourteen, both booted out over in

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Speaker 7: Ohio State team. But I mean, you know that iiO

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Speaker 7: State team was legit, But you're going to draw four

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Speaker 7: times as much money with names like Notre Dame in

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Speaker 7: Ohio State, then you are a Baylor or a TCU

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Speaker 7: or at Texas A and M. And that's just how

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Speaker 7: it goes. As far as the points spreads go, they're

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Speaker 7: both inflated. They're both completely inflated. Now does that mean

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Speaker 7: that Alabama can't cover it? Look what happened against Florida

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Speaker 7: last night. We sat here and so.

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Speaker 2: That that number was completely inflated. So we have to

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Speaker 2: make the decision.

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Speaker 7: Notre Dame and Ohio State can do damage control enough

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Speaker 7: to keep it within the number and possibly win.

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Speaker 2: I think the answer about winning is no for Notre Dame.

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Speaker 2: I think Clemson. I think Ohio Saint Clemson is gonna

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Speaker 2: be a barn burner.

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Speaker 7: I actually do think that Ohio State's a live dog

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Speaker 7: in that after they get healthy, after they get their

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Speaker 7: players back, I actually think that's gonna be a much

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Speaker 7: more competitive game. And I think Ohio State has a

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Speaker 7: real shot just from initial everything that I'm seeing.

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Speaker 2: Initially, Yeah, we're gonna we'll have a Playoff.

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Speaker 6: We're gonna have a number of ball preview episodes, but

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Speaker 6: we'll have a second one will come out on Wednesday

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Speaker 6: Wednesday night ish for the Friday and Saturday games. We're

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Speaker 6: gonna talk about all the weekday games through Thursday.

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Speaker 5: Today.

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Speaker 6: We'll talk motivation, we'll talk matchups, and I think one

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Speaker 6: of the most important things this year I don't know

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Speaker 6: how I'm gonna approach it yet, is trying to figure out, Okay,

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Speaker 6: do I want to take this team now? Because I

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Speaker 6: think that there's a higher risk of the team that

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Speaker 6: they're playing having multiple opt outs. So I'll give you

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Speaker 6: an example, Like these Bowl games, these non playoff bowl games.

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Speaker 5: It's like there's not gonna be fans.

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Speaker 6: These kids have been away from their families and live

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Speaker 6: risk like your pro career.

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Speaker 5: For like this empty stadium, meaningless bowl game.

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Speaker 6: Right, I can see how some kids would make that decision,

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Speaker 6: and kids do this every year anyway, I'm just saying now,

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Speaker 6: the incentive is even greater for this to happen. So

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Speaker 6: I look at a game like Florida Oklahoma. I think

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Speaker 6: Florida Open is a three point favorite. I'm not sure

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Speaker 6: where the line is now, but I say to myself,

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Speaker 6: pits is already out, and you know, once one guy

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Speaker 6: goes is that's set.

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Speaker 5: The presence is tress also maybe sit out.

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Speaker 6: So trying to figure out you're gonna see a lot

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Speaker 6: of line moves and trying to figure out, all right,

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Speaker 6: which teams have a really high risk of key players

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Speaker 6: potentially sitting out. Sometimes are just not gonna know at all.

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Speaker 6: Is it worth the exercise. We'll talk about that, but

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Speaker 6: let's recap the weekend and we'll let you guys drive

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Speaker 6: the bus. As always there with your voicemails. I haven't

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Speaker 6: listened to them, and I hope no one. Everyone just

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Speaker 6: kind of was too busy, too preoccupied with the conference

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Speaker 6: ship in Chips to notice that I bet Service Academy over,

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Speaker 6: So I don't know if.

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Speaker 5: That's on here.

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Speaker 6: I did win money on Leech Final that Leach. You

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Speaker 6: still have me some mortgage payments, mister Leach.

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Speaker 5: But you got me one. I don't know. That's a

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Speaker 5: great point. We were like one of the most constipated

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Speaker 5: offenses on earth, and you know.

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Speaker 8: We bad beats, back doors and miracle covers. However you're feeling,

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Speaker 8: we want to hear from you.

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Speaker 9: You have reached the voicemail box of my Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 1: Let's check this week's messages.

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Speaker 4: Why do you continue to some Tigers You're the best

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Speaker 4: team in the country.

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Speaker 5: Stuck.

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Speaker 10: Take your chicken liver at heay.

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Speaker 4: And go preact and you know what, you can use.

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Speaker 2: Your hair product as Luke.

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Speaker 10: Harley from Van rug here. And I just want to say, hey,

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Speaker 10: Lane Kiffin from Van Ruth, go to hell, o piss

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Speaker 10: go to hell.

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Speaker 11: Hey guys National Colorado here. I just want to get

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Speaker 11: a huge shout out to those boys up in West

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Speaker 11: Point for punching that in with less than two minutes

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Speaker 11: to go and then a big interception. I know a

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Speaker 11: lot of people are watching a ton of other games,

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Speaker 11: but big.

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Speaker 10: Shout out to the troops for giving us a huge.

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Speaker 5: W That was a great game.

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Speaker 6: By the way, can we get an Army at a bowl?

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Speaker 6: I mean at nine wins, they're not going to be

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Speaker 6: at a bowl.

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Speaker 2: How is South Carolina and a bowl and Army's not

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Speaker 2: in a bowl?

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Speaker 6: How are most of the North Texas we're abos to

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Speaker 6: talk about North Texas to the bowl tomorrow.

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Speaker 7: I mean when we learned that Army is going to

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Speaker 7: be in a bowl, I immediately went to the twenty

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Speaker 7: twenty one calendar and started marking off the teams that

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Speaker 7: are making a Bowl, like I forgot to highlight wake Force,

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Speaker 7: like they're going to be piss and they're going to

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Speaker 7: be taking name.

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Speaker 2: With people that had the Bowl games.

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Speaker 7: And you know what, as we record this, don't think

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Speaker 7: that the bull slate is stable. I would not be

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Speaker 7: surprised to see bulls canceled, teams withdraw and then teams

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Speaker 7: like maybe like Army who were practicing every day ready

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Speaker 7: to come in. So keep your eyes on that because

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Speaker 7: if Army is still practicing, I mean that's something I

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Speaker 7: got to read up on, like is Monkin's still practicing?

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Speaker 7: If he is, and they slide right in there, what

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Speaker 7: an advantage. So just keep your eyes over something like

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Speaker 7: that happening.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, one of the things if you go back to

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Speaker 6: like nineteen eighty service Academies or like seventy percent against

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Speaker 6: the spread of bulls. I remember we talked about this

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Speaker 6: last year there. I'll have to dig up the exact number.

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Speaker 6: It's just really good and it makes sense, right. Bulls

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Speaker 6: a lot of times are about motivation. You know, all

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Speaker 6: these teams sometimes that just don't show up, don't care

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Speaker 6: that they weren't really preparing or focused.

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Speaker 5: Service academy schools not really a concern.

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Speaker 6: They're almost always going to show up for every single game,

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Speaker 6: which is why they're generally a great bet.

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Speaker 5: Remember that Houston game Army won by like one hundred

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Speaker 5: and fifty.

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Speaker 10: Stuckey Colin the maction over. It's six thirty in the

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Speaker 10: morning on a Saturday. Went to bed at one, thought

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Speaker 10: I could sleep it off, drive to work, just kind

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Speaker 10: of forget about it. That fifty six points in the

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Speaker 10: first half, ten in the second, Buffalo drops like seven

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Speaker 10: thousand passes. I'm still not over it.

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Speaker 5: Thanks guys, I do have.

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Speaker 6: To shout out off for my condolences. Sip the for

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Speaker 6: anyone who had that over live over one point was

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Speaker 6: ninety eight. I didn't think there was any way. There

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Speaker 6: was just ten minutes left in the fourth quarter. I

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Speaker 6: was like, wait, is this game not gonna go over?

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Speaker 6: I just suddenly hit me that must have just been

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Speaker 6: absolutely But you don't think there's any I mean, you

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Speaker 6: go to that second half. It's a Mac game. You

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Speaker 6: don't think there's any way in the world there's not

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Speaker 6: fourteen points scored in that second half. I will take

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Speaker 6: gret at my best best I do best call, worst

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Speaker 6: called bet regret.

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Speaker 5: Right now, I've.

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Speaker 6: Bestcall has to be ball State just because I bet them,

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Speaker 6: but I also had them the MAC Manifesto paid off.

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Speaker 6: That was my best call of the year. I had

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Speaker 6: ball State to win the MAC and didn't. Hedge Florida

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Speaker 6: didn't come through, but at least they covered fall State

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Speaker 6: was my best call. But I feel so bad for overbackers.

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Speaker 6: That's as brutal as it gets, as far as worst

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Speaker 6: call I have to I mean, I'll have.

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Speaker 5: To go to the Service Academy over. But I'll also

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Speaker 5: say Notre Dame.

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Speaker 6: Notre Dame got kind of screwed early on and they

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Speaker 6: missed that twenty our field goal. They missed that wide

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Speaker 6: open pass, but look at the box score they got crushed.

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Speaker 6: That didn't make a difference.

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Speaker 5: Bet regret is I had the Oregon USC over.

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Speaker 6: Great call by you an Oregon, by the way, and

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Speaker 6: I should have got off at half. I had an

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Speaker 6: opportunity to even in potential small middle. Oregon wasn't moving

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Speaker 6: the ball that well. They were going so slow they

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Speaker 6: weren't really were throwing it. USC wasn't doing that much

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Speaker 6: on offense. It still got the twenty one fourteen at

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Speaker 6: the half because of some Fluke turnovers, some Fluke plays,

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Speaker 6: So it did not surprise me.

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Speaker 5: In the second f of that game kind of crawled,

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Speaker 5: so I should have got off there. That's my bet regret.

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Speaker 5: How about you best called, worst call, bet regret.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, best call is going to be Oregon.

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Speaker 7: I said, you don't even need the points, and so

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Speaker 7: it's really good to see them pretty much, you know,

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Speaker 7: lead from wire to wire and dominate that game. A

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Speaker 7: little bit of a flurry there for USC at the end,

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Speaker 7: but Oregon was able to hold on. And just every

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Speaker 7: time you heard somebody's name, whether it was on the defense,

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Speaker 7: whether it's Thibodeaux or showed all these players are back

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Speaker 7: next year for Oregon, so really big deal for the Ducks.

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Speaker 7: They do have a date at Ohio State in September,

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Speaker 7: I think the on the eleventh, So just monster season

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Speaker 7: coming up for and I think they get everybody back.

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Speaker 7: That was best call, bet regret, it's going to be Tulsa.

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Speaker 7: I didn't lay a dime on Tulsa and chirped about

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Speaker 7: it for weeks about how this was such a huge spot.

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Speaker 7: Defense showed up offense did their job, and I just

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Speaker 7: you know, ended up not playing it. And it was

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Speaker 7: you know something, you know, I power rated at twelve

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Speaker 7: and it was still higher than that, and I should

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Speaker 7: have taken it and I didn't. I think the weather

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Speaker 7: scared me off a little bit, not sure what was

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Speaker 7: going to happen with such a terrible weather there. You know,

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Speaker 7: I guess worst call of the day, I don't know,

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Speaker 7: take take your letter. I can't say Oregon State. I

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Speaker 7: know it was a little bit of a trolling on

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Speaker 7: Oregon State, but they lost a ton of players, a

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Speaker 7: lot of injuries during that game late at night against

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Speaker 7: Arizona State, and Arizona State just didn't stop scoring on them.

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Speaker 7: I'd say, you know, Florida first half was just a

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Speaker 7: bad guess on when those points were going to come

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Speaker 7: in Dan Mullen's clock management in the first half. He

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Speaker 7: should be fired alone for allowing Alabama to have a

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Speaker 7: possession with a minute left on the clock when he

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Speaker 7: could have easily I mean, how many times you'd have

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Speaker 7: to tweet that out. If Dan Mullen knew how to

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Speaker 7: manage a halftime clock, we could be looking at a

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Speaker 7: different story today for the college football playoffs. So you know,

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Speaker 7: I'll go ahead and I'm glad Alabama team total got over.

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Speaker 7: Felt like a struggle there for a little bit, but

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Speaker 7: I'll take worset call is Florida minus ten missed out

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Speaker 7: on that one, I think by at least a full score.

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Speaker 5: But Dan Mullen didn't help me any Kyle fits is

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Speaker 5: just a monster.

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Speaker 12: By the way, man, go yourself, Stucky, Can you sign

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Speaker 12: the bull mac manifesto My University of Buffalo bowls, My

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Speaker 12: seven to one six University of buffoot balls were better

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Speaker 12: than the ball State kids all the year. I don't

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Speaker 12: give your future bet or any of that Bulls. They

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Speaker 12: were the better team off here.

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Speaker 2: Love you too, Stucky.

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Speaker 4: I hear you rambling out and out and out and

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Speaker 4: out about how Oklahoma's a fraud. They haven't played anybody.

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Speaker 4: Look at who they've played, acting like Iowa State hasn't

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Speaker 4: played the same teams the same October.

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Speaker 7: What are we doing here?

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Speaker 4: Iowa State is out class, embarrassing.

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Speaker 6: Pick it pushed every single time with Iowa State. These

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Speaker 6: people kuait till that game is over, then call and trol.

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Speaker 5: That's what you have to learn to do.

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Speaker 6: They pushed so that game literally costs me zero dollars.

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Speaker 6: I also need to sorry to you know, I need

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Speaker 6: to say this. I feel so bad for that kid.

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Speaker 6: They threw them out. They're one of their best defensive players.

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Speaker 6: They have a creator on like he played the whole

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Speaker 6: COVID season. Look, I think it's a bullshit penalty no

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Speaker 6: matter what, But can we like to have tears of targeting?

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Speaker 5: You don't throw the kid out for that.

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Speaker 6: He led with his shoulder the receivers, There's no it

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Speaker 6: was not malicious.

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Speaker 5: You can't throw kids out for that.

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Speaker 6: Let's have some common sense. It's not the spear of

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Speaker 6: the rule. And now, I mean the kid was in

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Speaker 6: tears on the sideline. He gets to the whole year,

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Speaker 6: the whole season, and then on the third play of

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Speaker 6: the conference title game you throw him out because he

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Speaker 6: tackled with his shoulder.

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Speaker 7: Come on, Matt Hampbell looked like he got shot out

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Speaker 7: of a cannon. Like he's an interurant in the Royal.

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Speaker 2: Rumble for WWE.

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Speaker 7: I he was going ballistic with some of these calls

347
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Speaker 7: in this game. But at the end of the day,

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Speaker 7: Iowa State three turnovers. They shot themselves in the foot,

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Speaker 7: especially in the end zone. That's what kept him from

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Speaker 7: winning the Big Twelve Championship. There's two things you can't

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00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:34,120
Speaker 7: handicap turnovers. Injuries. Turnovers is the reason I always state

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Speaker 7: is not the Big Twelve champions and targeting and targeting.

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Speaker 10: Hey, what do you mean, brock Perdy having commedy? We

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Speaker 10: both love to puke all over ourselves this Saturday morning.

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Speaker 5: Oh.

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Speaker 6: Also, Oklahoma's once it's touchdown, it's what a touchdown? Which

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Speaker 6: is the difference than the game on a drop pick,

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Speaker 6: wide open drop pick that got deflected into a completion touchdown.

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Speaker 9: Next play man literally just going cyclone. They looked so

360
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Speaker 9: fucking good. What the brock purty three picks?

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Speaker 11: Fun?

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Speaker 9: And then we got in the rest chicken off the

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Speaker 9: in Oklahoma coach kicking someone over targeting that was horse

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Speaker 9: or what the fuck? Do we need to get a

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Speaker 9: god special teams coach like holy scrounch the other some

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Speaker 9: money like fuck. And don't get me wrong, I love

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Speaker 9: this program, but god dammit, does it ever sucked to

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Speaker 9: lose like that? Man, the Sooners we will be coming

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Speaker 9: for the next year.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, that's a really good point too.

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Speaker 6: In that Iowa wastake game is that they're kicking I

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Speaker 6: mean their special teams all year were awful. They can't

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Speaker 6: kick it off. The Oklahoma had so many big returns.

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Speaker 6: There's a team that never returned it all year. That

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Speaker 6: gave him a good field position and definitely impacted the

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Speaker 6: way that that game played out. Ohio State went twenty

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Speaker 6: to ten. Did it take anything from that game? Are

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Speaker 6: you more impressed with Clempson's dominant victory over Notre Dame?

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Speaker 5: Anything you want to mention before we move on to

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Speaker 5: these balls.

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Speaker 2: I mean, of course, the Ohio State.

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Speaker 7: Their performance against Northwestern is what's fresh on better's minds.

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00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:08,159
Speaker 7: When the odds makers put out a spread the way

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00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:11,479
Speaker 7: they do with Clemson minus seven, I mean that number

385
00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:13,480
Speaker 7: literally should be three and a half and four, and

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00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:16,119
Speaker 7: people are using the results that happened on Saturday and

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Speaker 7: rolling them into this. Northwestern played fantastic defense, but Ohio

388
00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:24,080
Speaker 7: State was off of a long break, Chris Olave didn't play,

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00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:26,719
Speaker 7: There were a lot there's some depth issues going on

390
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Speaker 7: with Ohio State.

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Speaker 2: This is none of these.

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Speaker 7: I mean, they're gonna get all these players back, They're

393
00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:35,280
Speaker 7: gonna be healthy, and I expect a much better Ohio

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Speaker 7: State to show up in the Rose Bowl in Arlington.

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Speaker 7: Interesting there. So yeah, I definitely agree with Ohio State

396
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Speaker 7: in the seven there. I think it's just way too inflated.

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Speaker 7: I actually thought Darren did a good job of buying

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Speaker 7: out when he did.

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Speaker 2: You wanted to.

400
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Speaker 7: Get that first possession, told him absolutely, you're not selling

401
00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:55,960
Speaker 7: out at halftime, but you're gonna get your first possession

402
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Speaker 7: in and if you get lucky and they get a score,

403
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Speaker 7: you're just gonna let it ride. You're gonna let it ride.

404
00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:03,359
Speaker 7: So the momentum swing, that's and that's when he cashed out.

405
00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:05,240
Speaker 7: But Ohio State did come back, did win that game.

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Speaker 7: Covered the second half total of minus seven and a

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Speaker 7: half and they weren't even close to full strength. And

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Speaker 7: I haven't played in a while. It's gonna be a

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Speaker 7: different team that shows up to play in the college

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Speaker 7: football playoff. So I don't know what to say about

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Speaker 7: Notre Dame Alabama. That number is inflated, and it probably

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00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:23,840
Speaker 7: should be inflated after. I have a really hard time

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Speaker 7: seeing Notre Dame hang around with Alabama here. But at

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Speaker 7: the same time, what does Nick Saban want to do

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Speaker 7: in a semi final game with you know, ten days

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Speaker 7: to go before a national championship game?

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Speaker 2: So we'll get into those.

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Speaker 7: But now as far as Ohio State goes, I think

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00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:39,280
Speaker 7: it was, you know, a great job for the Northwestern effort,

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Speaker 7: but that was.

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Speaker 2: Not a full Ohio State healthy team. So we'll see

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Speaker 2: how they look here at the playoff.

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Speaker 5: I had Ole Miss, loved Ole Miss, and then they.

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Speaker 6: Their top two pass catchers opt out after I make

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Speaker 6: the bet, and then I'll let you pulls out another

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Speaker 6: lucky with what twenty five percent post came win probability.

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Speaker 13: I hope you're enjoying this great action network podcast. I

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00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:01,040
Speaker 13: want to make sure you know about the locked On

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Speaker 13: podcast network. Locked On has a daily podcast on your

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Speaker 13: favorite team.

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00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:07,480
Speaker 5: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers. You are locked

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Speaker 5: down of the Dallas marriage.

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Speaker 2: We came everybody for the Lockdown Lakers podcast.

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Speaker 5: Let's go.

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Speaker 13: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

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00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:16,760
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Speaker 13: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

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00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:24,080
Speaker 13: locked on your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked on podcast.

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Speaker 5: Let's get into some of these bowls.

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Speaker 6: We'll get to Monday night football also before we close

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Speaker 6: up shop here at the end, but we have a

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Speaker 6: first ball tomorrow afternoon. Monday afternoon bowl game doesn't happen often.

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Speaker 6: It's on ESPN APP State against North Texas in the

444
00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:45,360
Speaker 6: Myrtle Beach Bowl.

445
00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:47,680
Speaker 5: I think it's all it's called. Is the Myrtle Beach Bowl.

446
00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:52,160
Speaker 6: At BETNGM, the official odds provider of the Action Network podcast,

447
00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:56,120
Speaker 6: app State's a twenty one point favorite over under sixty

448
00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:58,919
Speaker 6: four and a half. Here's the problem. I make this

449
00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 6: line twenty one and sixty five. I mean, does that

450
00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:04,680
Speaker 6: stake care when you're talking about a twenty one point favorite.

451
00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:07,639
Speaker 5: That's you're gonna have to decide that. North Texas is

452
00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:08,640
Speaker 5: just a mess this year.

453
00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:11,400
Speaker 6: They have one of the best receivers Jalen Darden in

454
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:14,080
Speaker 6: the country is like twenty He's like nineteen touchdown somehow.

455
00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:18,160
Speaker 6: But their defense is horrendous. They're very undisciplined team. It's

456
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,159
Speaker 6: not a team you want to bet, especially when the

457
00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:24,199
Speaker 6: scorekeeper is against you, as it happened with me. I

458
00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:26,080
Speaker 6: make this line spot on. I have my betting dice

459
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:28,280
Speaker 6: right here. I said, I'd roll them to see what

460
00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:31,240
Speaker 6: if you really want, like just to put fifty dollars

461
00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:35,600
Speaker 6: on this game to have some act And I came

462
00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:39,440
Speaker 6: up over. That is basically my input on this game.

463
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:41,000
Speaker 6: Take it away here, what do you say?

464
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:41,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a game.

465
00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:45,560
Speaker 7: I projected eighteen and a half and sixty fourish, so

466
00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:47,520
Speaker 7: the number came out eighteen and a half. It's now

467
00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:50,080
Speaker 7: up to twenty one. I put a bet in on

468
00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:52,600
Speaker 7: the action app at nineteen. Hope everybody was able to

469
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:54,680
Speaker 7: get on that because it looks like we're twenty one

470
00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:56,800
Speaker 7: across the board, which is where it should be heading into.

471
00:20:57,040 --> 00:20:58,840
Speaker 7: While you guys are listening to this on Monday morning,

472
00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:01,400
Speaker 7: there's just you know, there's two. It's not that there's

473
00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 7: a huge edge here. But the one thing I can

474
00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:05,919
Speaker 7: come up with App State is a they've played at

475
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:10,159
Speaker 7: the surf Turf before they actually really Sean Clark was

476
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:12,480
Speaker 7: adamant about how we will take the visitor locker room

477
00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:14,639
Speaker 7: because we're more familiar with the visitors' locker room.

478
00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:15,399
Speaker 2: Listen.

479
00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:19,080
Speaker 7: App State has won all five bowl games that they've

480
00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:22,200
Speaker 7: been in, and Sethil Treill has lost all three bowl

481
00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 7: games that he's coached for North Texas. You know, I

482
00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:26,480
Speaker 7: think that's something to keep in mind here when you

483
00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:29,160
Speaker 7: think about program success and just one team hasn't one

484
00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:31,359
Speaker 7: team doesn't app Staatee is definitely the one that you

485
00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:31,880
Speaker 7: want to back.

486
00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:32,120
Speaker 2: Here.

487
00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:34,639
Speaker 7: App State finished second in the nation and defensive passing

488
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:37,119
Speaker 7: success rate that's going to be very important against the

489
00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:38,880
Speaker 7: North Texas team that likes to go to the air

490
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:41,680
Speaker 7: that is second in the nation, and tempo app State

491
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,159
Speaker 7: is fourth. And tackling that's I go back to just

492
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:47,439
Speaker 7: tackling and just you know, the program in general is

493
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 7: just a much more well run team at app State

494
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:53,720
Speaker 7: than there is going on at North Texas. App State

495
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:56,960
Speaker 7: is twenty third defensive pass coverage. It's just a whole

496
00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:59,320
Speaker 7: different level of competition for North Texas. I know the

497
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:01,919
Speaker 7: strength of schedule for both these teams is outside the

498
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:05,160
Speaker 7: top one hundred. You can't trust North Texas on defense.

499
00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 7: They're just outside the top one hundred and almost every

500
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:10,200
Speaker 7: single category. I mean there are one hundred and twentieth

501
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:12,879
Speaker 7: in defensive finishing drives. If AP State gets close, they

502
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:17,440
Speaker 7: sniffing anywhere in opponent territory, they're gonna score touchdown. Huge

503
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 7: special teams gap here. Appalachian States twelfth, North Texas one

504
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:22,880
Speaker 7: hundred and ninth. I think you gotta lay the points.

505
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 7: Hopefully you're listening to this is still at twenty one,

506
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:26,480
Speaker 7: a couple points higher than where I've got it, But

507
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:28,120
Speaker 7: I think twenty one is a good number to buy

508
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 7: on a little bit of money. Not anything huge, just

509
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:34,440
Speaker 7: big program difference here, big difference in rankings on offense

510
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 7: and defense between these two, and a little bit of

511
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 7: familiarity for app State playing on this surface.

512
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:42,879
Speaker 1: Full game fever, catch it all right.

513
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:45,320
Speaker 5: We also have Tuesday. I mean, it's just a beautiful

514
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 5: time of the year.

515
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:50,520
Speaker 6: We have Tuesday, Tuesday afternoon bowl game with Tulane against

516
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 6: Nevada in the famous Idaho Potato Bowl at BETAMGM. Tulane

517
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,280
Speaker 6: is a two and a half favorite, but it's juice.

518
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:01,880
Speaker 5: Minus one twenty five.

519
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 6: It's my three point favorite over under fifty six and

520
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:09,520
Speaker 6: a half. The question here from a care perspective, I

521
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 6: think too Lane will care and they fought hard all

522
00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:14,440
Speaker 6: the way till the end of the year. They weren't

523
00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:19,359
Speaker 6: expected to win their conference Nevada surprise year, but they

524
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:21,440
Speaker 6: could have easily been in the conference championship.

525
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:22,000
Speaker 5: They weren't.

526
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 6: They had that disappointing loss to santas A State last.

527
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 5: Last Friday night. So where are they at mentally?

528
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:32,920
Speaker 6: How do the pack match up with the Green Wave

529
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:37,680
Speaker 6: two unique offenses. Here, you have kind of a Nevada's

530
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:38,440
Speaker 6: air raid.

531
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:39,680
Speaker 5: What do you see here?

532
00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:41,880
Speaker 2: I mean, we're recording Sunday night.

533
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 7: I think I'm gonna be playing Nevada before I hit

534
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,439
Speaker 7: the sack here tonight. There, I project the game too late,

535
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 7: minus two and a half, not a big edge. There,

536
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,080
Speaker 7: I project the total of fifty five and a half. Really,

537
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 7: that's what the market is at. But when you look

538
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 7: at these two teams, you know, you can't say Nevada

539
00:23:57,560 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 7: is familiar with the surface.

540
00:23:58,560 --> 00:23:59,480
Speaker 2: At least the players aren't.

541
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:01,639
Speaker 7: They haven't played the last couple of years, so saying

542
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 7: that they have, you know, experience on the smirkturf isn't

543
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:08,160
Speaker 7: really true. But Nevada, let's just break it down side

544
00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 7: by side here. Two lane is a team that runs

545
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 7: sixty two percent of the time. They ranked top thirty

546
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:16,919
Speaker 7: five and rushing success rate and rushing explosiveness. But Nevada

547
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 7: wolf Pack is pretty good at defending that. They are

548
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 7: twentieth in the nation and defending rush explosiveness. That's a

549
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:23,760
Speaker 7: big deal against Tulane. Tulane loves his aired up on

550
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 7: the ground. Nevada's twelfth in the nation and tackling. They

551
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 7: are very solid on defense, and I think that they're

552
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:32,119
Speaker 7: going to be able to handle whatever Tulane throws at

553
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 7: them on the ground. Now, if you go and look

554
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 7: at Nevada's offense with Carson Strong, they pass the ball

555
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:38,880
Speaker 7: sixty one percent of the time. So I'm not even

556
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 7: looking at Nevada's rushing stats. I don't even care. So

557
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 7: when I look at Nevada's passing stats, nothing really huge

558
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,280
Speaker 7: breaks out from me for Carson Strong. But what does

559
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 7: open up my eyes is that Tulane is one hundred

560
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:52,640
Speaker 7: and twenty third in the nation in defending pass explosiveness.

561
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 7: So I think the Green waver are gonna have issues

562
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 7: with Carson Strong, especially going deep. There is a huge

563
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 7: mismatch in team tackling here favored and in the side

564
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 7: of Nevada Special teams. Sp plus makes Nevada thirty fifth.

565
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:07,880
Speaker 7: Sp plus makes two Lane one hundred and twenty third.

566
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,120
Speaker 7: Nevada's got it where it counts. I am probably going

567
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:14,120
Speaker 7: to be on Nevada plus three before probably while we're podcasting,

568
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 7: I might slip this bed in here.

569
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 5: I think you get a healthy.

570
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 6: Don Peterson back for Nevada, which should help their defense. Yeah,

571
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:23,800
Speaker 6: the main question for Nevada will be and you saw

572
00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 6: this late in the Santa's A State game, which this

573
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,200
Speaker 6: would be my only concern with Nevada here as long

574
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 6: as they care is their offensive line. Their offensive line

575
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:36,120
Speaker 6: has been shaky at times this year and they're going

576
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:37,360
Speaker 6: against you know.

577
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:38,160
Speaker 5: Sample and company.

578
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 6: There's some NFL potential on this two lane defensive line

579
00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 6: and they can get after the quarterback. So how much

580
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 6: havoc can the two lane defensive line create?

581
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 2: Absolutely if Carson Strong.

582
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 7: If Carson Strong is getting rid of the ball under

583
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 7: two seconds after the snap, then it's a different story.

584
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,120
Speaker 2: But if he's holding on to that thing, he might

585
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:54,679
Speaker 2: be in trouble.

586
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:55,240
Speaker 5: Yeah.

587
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 6: I mean, Tulane top ten in sacks per game. You

588
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:02,879
Speaker 6: got Patrick Johnson sampled. I think that seven players that

589
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 6: had at least two and a half sacks, So they

590
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 6: can get pressure from a number of different places.

591
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:08,680
Speaker 5: Yeah.

592
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:10,240
Speaker 6: So, And by the way, make sure you check out

593
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 6: the action app actionework dot Com. We're gonna have comprehensive

594
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 6: Bowl previews and content every single day.

595
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 5: Make sure you follow us on the app to see

596
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 5: what we play.

597
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 1: If you hate ball games, go listen to NPR all right.

598
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:27,040
Speaker 6: Moving on to our second bowl game on Tuesday, in

599
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 6: the bulk of our Tone Bowl at UCF, who is

600
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 6: I think technically the road team here at BETAMGMUCF is

601
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 6: a six point underdog six six and a half over

602
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:44,680
Speaker 6: under seventy and a half. This when the ball matchups

603
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:47,960
Speaker 6: came out, was one of the most intriguing matchups to

604
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 6: me should be I'm just excited to watch both offenses

605
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:52,359
Speaker 6: go head to head.

606
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:53,120
Speaker 5: What do you see here?

607
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:55,359
Speaker 7: So I was a little bit shocked to see, but

608
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:57,680
Speaker 7: BYU open up at three and a half, I knew

609
00:26:57,720 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 7: kind of like the over in this game it is

610
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,919
Speaker 7: at seventy one seventy two. I think that's just going

611
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 7: to keep going up. I projected at seventy three. Not

612
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:06,919
Speaker 7: a lot on the defenses here to make me believe

613
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 7: that either of the offenses are going to be stopped.

614
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,400
Speaker 7: I do power rate the game to be a pickham

615
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 7: flew up to seven. I think that's where it's going

616
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 7: to be by the time everybody's listening on Monday morning.

617
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:20,399
Speaker 7: BYU one hundred and six and strength of schedule, I mean,

618
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:22,160
Speaker 7: their offense to get anything they want in this game

619
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:26,119
Speaker 7: could potentially be Zach Wilson's last game. Central Florida seventy fourth,

620
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 7: the higher strength of schedule seventy fourth, but they are

621
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:32,160
Speaker 7: defensively eighty ninth and passing success rate in one hundred

622
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 7: and twelfth against pass explosiven That's not going to get

623
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 7: it done against Sack Wilson. Even Central Florida having a

624
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 7: defensive habit grating thirty fourth should be minimized by BYU

625
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:43,639
Speaker 7: because BYU is one of the most disciplined offenses in

626
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 7: the nation. We know that they are top fifteen and

627
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:47,679
Speaker 7: havoc allowed. They just don't turn the ball over and

628
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:50,359
Speaker 7: they don't let teams get into their backfield. Of course,

629
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:52,240
Speaker 7: you know, strength to schedule, Like I said, it was

630
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 7: important the mech Championship with Buffalo. You know BYU has

631
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 7: not really had a very strong strength of schedule considering

632
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:02,399
Speaker 7: the peace schedule they've had to put together. Now, I

633
00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:05,399
Speaker 7: think the question is is will Central Florida score. The

634
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:09,359
Speaker 7: Knights are eighth and pass explosiveness with Dylan Gabriel against

635
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 7: BYU's back seven, they're sixty third defending pass explosiveness. So

636
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:15,920
Speaker 7: I think Central Florida is going to be able to

637
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 7: hit the long shot and keep themselves in this game.

638
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:20,960
Speaker 7: That's why I like this at seven over time, it

639
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 7: doesn't matter. I just think Central Florida is going to

640
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 7: be able to get themselves back into this BYU doesn't

641
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 7: impose their will in the trench. On defense whatsoever, They're

642
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 7: eighty seventh in defensive havoc, which I was kind of

643
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 7: shocked to see. They're just not really taking the ball

644
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 7: away or or having a lot of pass breakups or

645
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 7: tackling in the backfield. They're seventy first in line yards,

646
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 7: so for everything about that defensive line, they are just not,

647
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 7: you know, putting it up when in rushing attempts are

648
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 7: one hundred and seventh and stuff rate, so teams are

649
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 7: able to move it on the ground. Central Florida is

650
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 7: first in the nation in tempo. They average nineteen point

651
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 7: three seconds per play, so this is going to be fast,

652
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:57,320
Speaker 7: blazing fast, and I don't see either teams stopping each other.

653
00:28:57,400 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 7: There's a huge difference of special teams though. That's where

654
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 7: BAU as an advantage.

655
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 2: They're second in sp plus Central Florida's ninety seven. I

656
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 2: love the over. I could be talked into Central Florida

657
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 2: plus seven.

658
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 7: I think they're gonna be able to get back into

659
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 7: the game at any time, and they're not going to

660
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 7: be dominated in the trench. So we'll see, you know,

661
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 7: do a little bit more research, see who all is

662
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:16,080
Speaker 7: going to be involved in this game, because with Central

663
00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 7: Florida it's just been a rotating wheel of who's playing,

664
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 7: who's not playing, ten ten guys opting out. We got

665
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 7: COVID all up and down the roster. It's been an

666
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 7: interesting season for Josh Haipel and the Knights, and so

667
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 7: I want to verify that, you know, this is a

668
00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:31,480
Speaker 7: solid team with Bowl motivation, but that's the side that

669
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 7: I'm looking for.

670
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 5: I don't disagree with either. I think, you know, the

671
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:36,479
Speaker 5: over is starting to get a little out.

672
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 6: I am, but as of where it is now, I

673
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:40,840
Speaker 6: have a slightly in to the over and I like

674
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 6: UCF two.

675
00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 5: I think i'd make this around two and a half three.

676
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 6: I got to go do my final Bowl projections, but

677
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 6: it's definitely right around a field goal or maybe a

678
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:53,160
Speaker 6: little below. But I'm not hitting that now because I

679
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 6: really want seven obviously, and please don't, Jake sus you

680
00:29:56,480 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 6: said with seven will be okay in overtime. The good

681
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 6: thing is that I don't think that there's not a

682
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 6: lot of risks. I'm gonna just just chix the shit

683
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 6: out of the bowl season.

684
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 2: Now.

685
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 6: There's not a lot of risk of a bowl, a

686
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 6: random bowl going to triple overtime because why like the

687
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 6: teams would just go for you know, go for two

688
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:16,480
Speaker 6: in the first or second overtime or at the end

689
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 6: of regulation. This is my yearly public service announcement for

690
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 6: bowl games. If you have a team that is a

691
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 6: one and a half point favorite, a two point favorite, right,

692
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 6: sometimes you would just bet them one and a half

693
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 6: two point favorites game. A lot of games is gonna

694
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 6: end on three, more so than one or two. But

695
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,440
Speaker 6: in ball season it's different. There's more games that are

696
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 6: likely to end on one because at the end of

697
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 6: a game, and again it means nothing in a bowl

698
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 6: game and boka retne or whatever it is, and you

699
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 6: tie it, who cares you go for two?

700
00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 5: You see it all the time.

701
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 6: Instead of laying one and a half or two, take

702
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:54,960
Speaker 6: the money line with a really short favorite. If you're

703
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:57,480
Speaker 6: catching one and a half or two, take those points.

704
00:30:57,680 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 6: Don't just play the money line, because there's just more

705
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 6: of a chance that these games could end at one

706
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 6: because their team's going for two at the end, because

707
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 6: it's like, who cares? This is the famous Potato Bowl,

708
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 6: so keep them on.

709
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,360
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720
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,560
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721
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:54,160
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722
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723
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724
00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:01,320
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725
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 14: Primo Offert not available into that and now back to

726
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 14: the show.

727
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 6: All right, let's move on to Wednesday the New Orleans Bowl,

728
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 6: Louisiana Texas six and a half point underdog against Georgia Southern.

729
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:16,560
Speaker 5: Over under fifty and a half.

730
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 6: Look, I've been preaching about how bad Louisiana Tech is

731
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:21,760
Speaker 6: and how much of a fraud this team is. They

732
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 6: did also lose Luca Anthony. They've been using two quarterbacks

733
00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 6: most of the year. He had like a horrific injury

734
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 6: in their last game against TCU when they got trucked,

735
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 6: So I don't I don't think he's available. Georgia Southern,

736
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 6: interestingly enough, had you know, Shay Wertz their senior starting

737
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 6: quarterbacks start of the year, and then they had Justin

738
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 6: Tomalin who got hurt last game. And then you had

739
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:45,400
Speaker 6: Miller Moseley come in somehow, I mean he was like

740
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 6: two of thirteen somehow. He threw an eighty r touchdown pass.

741
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 6: I still have not seen a clip for it, but

742
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 6: I needed that to get in the back door. I've

743
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 6: been looking for a clip. I can't find a clip

744
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:55,800
Speaker 6: of Miller Moseley making this star. I still don't know

745
00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 6: the quarterbacks can be for Georgia Southern. They also had

746
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 6: an injury to their star linebacker and they start, and

747
00:33:00,640 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 6: they start, safety's bagged up too, and Duncan I'm writing

748
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 6: up this game, I'm going I've been digging into all

749
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 6: these injuries to find out who's playing who's not. But

750
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:12,680
Speaker 6: I can tell you that at full strength, I made

751
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 6: this line eleven and a half. Now, granted, I am

752
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 6: the lowest person on planet Earth when it comes to

753
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 6: Louisiana Tech. I also have to downgrade Georgia Southern if

754
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 6: it's Miller mostly and I got to figure out how

755
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 6: much to do so. And then there's other injuries, and

756
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 6: then Louisiana Tech's gonna be going with Allen the whole.

757
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 5: Time instead of rotating.

758
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:33,360
Speaker 6: And they used Anthony more than Allen, and he had

759
00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 6: a little more success throwing the ball. So there's a

760
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 6: lot to dig into here, but I can tell you

761
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 6: under seven, I almost certainly like Georgia Southern.

762
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:43,520
Speaker 5: And if Georgia Southern's going with this third string quarterback,

763
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 5: just Louisiana. Louisiana texts offense is so broken it's incredible.

764
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:49,480
Speaker 6: I mean, you go back to the games that they've won,

765
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:53,040
Speaker 6: even against North Texas stavage like four yards per play

766
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 6: to just some of these games are absolutely disgusting that

767
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 6: they won. They've scored I think like eighty or ninety

768
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 6: points more than they should have this year if you

769
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:04,720
Speaker 6: just look go by yards and yards per play. They've

770
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 6: had a number of pick sixes they scored on the

771
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:10,320
Speaker 6: final play of the game. I think they're fifteen to

772
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:14,480
Speaker 6: seventeen on fourth downs this year. Just an incredibly lucky team.

773
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 6: Now they are well coached, and I know what Colin's

774
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 6: gonna tell me. Colin's gonna tell me all about Skip Polton.

775
00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:21,840
Speaker 6: I think they've won like fifty five Bowls in a row.

776
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 6: I know they had the nation's longest Bowl winning streak.

777
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:26,759
Speaker 6: But I just hate this team this year. So I'm

778
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:29,280
Speaker 6: gonna be on Georgia Southern. In some fashion. I played

779
00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:31,840
Speaker 6: some under fifty two. I might buy that back.

780
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:32,759
Speaker 5: I don't know.

781
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 6: I got to figure out who's playing in this game.

782
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:37,439
Speaker 6: Keep your eye on the right up. But here comes Colin,

783
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:39,839
Speaker 6: tell me about I usually Beatly's gonna take every year

784
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:40,399
Speaker 6: in the Bowl too.

785
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:43,400
Speaker 7: So yeah, I mean, I'll ship you over the video

786
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 7: of Miller Mosey.

787
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 2: You know in the game when some of the past

788
00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:47,359
Speaker 2: the had.

789
00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:49,200
Speaker 7: There is a YouTube out there of the game summary

790
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 7: watching all of Miller Moseley's I mean it's there was

791
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 7: something extremely odd about the Georgia Southern box score that

792
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 7: bothered me, so I had to go actually watch the

793
00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:00,359
Speaker 7: game to see what was going on. Now you think

794
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 7: of Georgia Southern, you should think slow, triple option, shy Wortz,

795
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 7: not burning clock. Well that's true, they're one hundred and

796
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:11,400
Speaker 7: twenty seventh and seconds per play. This season, they're averaging

797
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:13,920
Speaker 7: over thirty two seconds per play. But when I looked

798
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:15,880
Speaker 7: at the box score with Miller Moseley, I just couldn't

799
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:19,200
Speaker 7: believe my eyes that I saw an up tempo offense.

800
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 2: What is this?

801
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:24,239
Speaker 7: Now, he's not very successful. Don't ask Miller Moseley to be,

802
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 7: you know, come out there and be Zach Wilson from BYU.

803
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:30,759
Speaker 7: But Miller Moseley can hit the explosive pass, he can

804
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:34,240
Speaker 7: hit the slants, he can hit the sidelines. He made

805
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:37,200
Speaker 7: some very impressive long passes. But I think the thing

806
00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:39,360
Speaker 7: that's most important is when Miller Moseley came to the

807
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:44,080
Speaker 7: game for Georgia Southern, twenty five seconds per play in

808
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 7: the game they increase their seconds per play by seven.

809
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:49,640
Speaker 7: This game for me was an over forty nine and

810
00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:51,680
Speaker 7: a half when it hit the board. I think fifty

811
00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 7: and a half is where most of the books are

812
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:55,880
Speaker 7: right now. To me, this is an over all the way.

813
00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:58,719
Speaker 7: If Miller Moseley is the quarterback, there's going to be

814
00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 7: explosive shots taken on both sides. But Georgia Southern is

815
00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:04,400
Speaker 7: going to score a ton more points. And look what

816
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:06,879
Speaker 7: look at that final score against app State. I mean

817
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:09,320
Speaker 7: that things sailed over the total, you know, the projections

818
00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 7: at six. But that's a Shywartz line. This is a

819
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:14,239
Speaker 7: completely different Georgia Southern offense. If Shywartz is not there

820
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:17,279
Speaker 7: running the triple. You know, if Shywartz is there, if

821
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:19,640
Speaker 7: he is healthy, which everything I've read says that he's

822
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:21,399
Speaker 7: probably not gonna be able to play in this bowl game,

823
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:23,399
Speaker 7: you know, but if he is there, their top twenty

824
00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:25,360
Speaker 7: five in line yards, their top twenty five and stuff

825
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:27,520
Speaker 7: rate and LATA can't defend any of that stuff on

826
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:30,400
Speaker 7: the ground. But when you look at you know, Miller

827
00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:32,720
Speaker 7: Moseley at quarterback and they're going to be taking shots

828
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:34,640
Speaker 7: down the field. The kid is not successful right, his

829
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:37,480
Speaker 7: success rate's going to be terrible. I think he only

830
00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:41,080
Speaker 7: completed a handful of passes, but they were deep and

831
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:43,400
Speaker 7: they weren't flukes. So I think it's going to be

832
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 7: more downfield passing. There's big advantages in tackling here. Georgia

833
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:50,960
Speaker 7: Southern twenty ninth graded in PFF tackling. Louisiana tack is

834
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:54,919
Speaker 7: ninety ninth. But you know, I can't get over how

835
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:58,400
Speaker 7: fast of an offense Georgia Southern was when they decided

836
00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:00,279
Speaker 7: to go to Miller Moseley, who was not run the

837
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:02,759
Speaker 7: triple and was taking shots fifteen to twenty yards down

838
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 7: the field.

839
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 5: Yeah, but it wasn't because they were down. That's the

840
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:06,760
Speaker 5: question that we have to answered.

841
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:08,799
Speaker 7: No, he was doing that. I didn't, No, he was.

842
00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 7: He was the second he came in. It was it

843
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 7: was tired that the kids got an arm. He can

844
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:12,799
Speaker 7: throw it.

845
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 5: Well, he can throw it. I don't know.

846
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:18,440
Speaker 6: Well I've already put under fifty two, and just because

847
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:20,799
Speaker 6: of my projection, but now, oh, God of scared. But

848
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 6: I said, I buy it back. I hit fifty two

849
00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:26,560
Speaker 6: and I was like, this thing's gonna come down. But yeah,

850
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:29,040
Speaker 6: Georgia Southern, there's a lot to get through. I'm gonna

851
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 6: to write up on it.

852
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 5: I just hate LA Tech.

853
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:32,719
Speaker 6: Yeah, and you can you tell me anything good about

854
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 6: this Louisiana Tech team.

855
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 2: Twenty fifth in offensive finishing drives. Does that help? I mean,

856
00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:37,920
Speaker 2: Georgia Southern is.

857
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:40,839
Speaker 5: Twenty I got garbage too, Ye against garbage.

858
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 7: The defense's top forty against pass explosiveness, that's it. Everything

859
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:47,640
Speaker 7: else is outside the top ninety. And they have a

860
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:49,759
Speaker 7: they're outside the top one hundred strength to schedule. I mean,

861
00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:51,839
Speaker 7: it's it's not good. It's not a good year for Skipples.

862
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:54,439
Speaker 6: It's like they honestly could have had one win over

863
00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:56,840
Speaker 6: an FCS team. If you look at their other wins

864
00:37:56,880 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 6: against really bad teams, they're usually by like one two

865
00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:03,879
Speaker 6: on like the last play of the game on fourth down,

866
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:06,360
Speaker 6: like crazy. Yeah, the two hundred and ten yards and

867
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:08,839
Speaker 6: three yards per play against UTEP. This team has been

868
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 6: so fluky and lucky all year. I think they've won

869
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:14,839
Speaker 6: multiple games this year averaging three yards per play three

870
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:16,720
Speaker 6: point nine yards for play against North Texas.

871
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:17,880
Speaker 5: That's possible to do.

872
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:21,279
Speaker 6: It's an ugly offense, and now their best quarterback is out.

873
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:25,400
Speaker 6: I mean, all right, enough, La Tech slander anybody that

874
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 6: listens to this podcast down in Rustin. I've done enough

875
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:33,239
Speaker 6: slandering of your bulldogs.

876
00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:38,960
Speaker 5: If you don't bet on the bowl, the bowl even exist.

877
00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:43,800
Speaker 5: Let's move on to another bowl.

878
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:46,800
Speaker 6: On Wednesday, Memphis out of gyms at eight and a

879
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:50,040
Speaker 6: half point favorite against Florida Atlantic over under fifty two

880
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:51,440
Speaker 6: and a half at bet MGM.

881
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 5: I'm looking under here.

882
00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:57,000
Speaker 6: Florida Atlantic's been one of my favorite under teams this year.

883
00:38:57,239 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 6: Although I got yell at the voicemail for one I

884
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:03,399
Speaker 6: didn't like the other week, the fire Lanks defense has

885
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:06,800
Speaker 6: been really good. We talked about Jim Levitt, the coordinator.

886
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:08,160
Speaker 6: They're one of the best in the business. I mean,

887
00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:09,960
Speaker 6: this is a guy that was the highest court one

888
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:12,400
Speaker 6: of the highest PI coidators in college football, and then

889
00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 6: he just didn't get along with Crystal Ball at Oregon

890
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:17,640
Speaker 6: and now he finds himself at FAU and he's done

891
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:22,160
Speaker 6: a tremendous job with that defense. Was a little puzzling

892
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:24,240
Speaker 6: that they gave up forty five points to Southern Miss

893
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 6: last week, But if you look at Memphis and the

894
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:32,320
Speaker 6: FAU offense isn't great in general. If you look at Memphis,

895
00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 6: they've lost just so many weapons, like their two best

896
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 6: weapons on an offense have opted out one before the season,

897
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:42,399
Speaker 6: one during the season, and the offense is kind of, yeah,

898
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:45,360
Speaker 6: gone to the tank since uh, you know, this is

899
00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 6: a team that scored ten points at Navy, they scored

900
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:54,480
Speaker 6: twenty one points at Tulane and they barely just got

901
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:57,680
Speaker 6: to and they got to thirty against Houston. This is

902
00:39:57,680 --> 00:39:59,920
Speaker 6: a team that usually against those teams would be in

903
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:03,279
Speaker 6: high thirties, low forties. So the offense is just not

904
00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:05,880
Speaker 6: the same Memphis offense that we've seen a lot of

905
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:08,800
Speaker 6: that due to opt outs. Still Brady White there at quarterback,

906
00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:12,840
Speaker 6: but I actually might look under here thoughts.

907
00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:15,600
Speaker 7: Yeah, I actually wrote that all up in my notes,

908
00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:19,280
Speaker 7: and I agree with you completely. You know, I project

909
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:21,799
Speaker 7: the games nine manus eleven, not too far off of

910
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:24,719
Speaker 7: the minus nine, and I projected, you know, total of

911
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 7: fifty two, which is pretty close to the market. Memphis

912
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 7: games have gone under three of the last four. I'm

913
00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:31,520
Speaker 7: not sure if you count that Oullier against Steven f.

914
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 7: Austin where they scored you know, fifty six points. I

915
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:35,919
Speaker 7: don't think that really counts. So they've been an under

916
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:38,799
Speaker 7: team for the last half here of the season, and

917
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:41,600
Speaker 7: Florida Lantic was an under team until they allowed forty

918
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:43,239
Speaker 7: five points to Southern Miss. And if you look a

919
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:45,239
Speaker 7: little bit deeper into that Southern Miss game and ask

920
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:47,840
Speaker 7: what the hell happened there? Three hundred yards on the ground,

921
00:40:47,880 --> 00:40:51,000
Speaker 7: I mean they just gave up gashing numbers on the ground.

922
00:40:52,239 --> 00:40:54,879
Speaker 7: And you know at the Southern Miss that came out

923
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:57,520
Speaker 7: of nowhere on their on their second interim coach. But

924
00:40:57,600 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 7: I'm not sure Memphis has the ability to do that.

925
00:41:01,520 --> 00:41:04,320
Speaker 7: The four of the last five games, not including Steven f.

926
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:08,640
Speaker 7: Austin Here's Memphis is total rushing yards sixty four forty

927
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:13,080
Speaker 7: five ninety eight and a grand total of five yards

928
00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:16,239
Speaker 7: against Cincinnati's defense. They haven't clipped one hundred in a

929
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 7: long time. They are not a rush team first team.

930
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:23,759
Speaker 7: They are not an explosive rushing team. I think this

931
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:25,759
Speaker 7: is an under here all the way. Florida's seventeenth and

932
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:28,440
Speaker 7: defending pass explosiveness, So Brady White wants to go to

933
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:30,719
Speaker 7: the air. FAU should be able to take care of that,

934
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:34,399
Speaker 7: you know, And Florida Atlantic is you know, their fourth

935
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:37,880
Speaker 7: and defensive finishing drives. They play their best football on

936
00:41:37,960 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 7: defense when their backs are up against the against the

937
00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 7: goal line, so to me, this is an under all

938
00:41:42,520 --> 00:41:42,719
Speaker 7: the way.

939
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:43,759
Speaker 5: Really agree with you?

940
00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:46,239
Speaker 6: All right, good stuff, Dan, Like I said, stay tuned

941
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 6: on our Twitter Action Network dot Com actionework out. We'll

942
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:53,239
Speaker 6: have comprehensive well every bowl will be covered. Hopefully we

943
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:54,759
Speaker 6: can what do we have like that? A twenty eight

944
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:57,480
Speaker 6: twenty five. Hopefully we can get at least twenty by

945
00:41:57,640 --> 00:41:59,640
Speaker 6: it's all said and done, so hopefully we can have

946
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:00,480
Speaker 6: a good ball season.

947
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:02,680
Speaker 7: And thank you producer Matt Mitchell for throwing in the

948
00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 7: Gus Johnson Oklahoma overtime call every time we mentioned the

949
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:20,240
Speaker 7: Big twelve, right yeah.

950
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:17,280
Speaker 1: Unbelievable college football.

951
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:20,880
Speaker 6: Fuck sports the Big twelve.

952
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:23,399
Speaker 5: Before we get out of here Monday Night football.

953
00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:24,880
Speaker 6: I did it right up for this game, so if

954
00:42:24,880 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 6: you want to check it out on the app at BETMGM.

955
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:29,160
Speaker 6: Right now, the Steelers are fourteen and a half point

956
00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:32,200
Speaker 6: favorites at the Bengals over under thirty nine and a half.

957
00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:36,600
Speaker 5: So how I played this game. I like. The problem

958
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:38,279
Speaker 5: is it's over fourteen now, so I don't like the

959
00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:39,200
Speaker 5: Steelers anymore.

960
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 6: I like the Steelers. Maybe this line goes down anything

961
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 6: under fourteen. I kind of like the under if you

962
00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:45,759
Speaker 6: can get forty or above. But the way to play this,

963
00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 6: in my opinion, is to go Bengals team total under

964
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:52,719
Speaker 6: which as of right now I played under thirteen and

965
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:53,240
Speaker 6: a half.

966
00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:56,480
Speaker 5: It's thirteen now you can get which I still like. Obviously,

967
00:42:56,520 --> 00:42:58,800
Speaker 5: if you can find a thirteen and a half, it's gonna.

968
00:42:58,560 --> 00:42:59,960
Speaker 6: Be tough right else, as this line is going up,

969
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:03,440
Speaker 6: the totals coming down, that's important. It's really hard for

970
00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:06,840
Speaker 6: me to see this Bengals team scoring at all. I

971
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:10,320
Speaker 6: mean since Brandon Allen, who wasn't even practicing, became the quarterback.

972
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:14,000
Speaker 6: Over the past three games, this Cincinnati offense has done

973
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 6: absolutely nothing nothing. They're averaging three point nine yards per play.

974
00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:22,160
Speaker 6: That's like La Tech. This is a La Tech offense

975
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:25,280
Speaker 6: in the NFL. Sorry Russell, I told joeuldn't slander anymore.

976
00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:27,879
Speaker 6: But their offenses is anything. They basically have had one

977
00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:31,120
Speaker 6: explosive play in three games. I think they had like

978
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:34,239
Speaker 6: a one to twenty one yard completion last week, but

979
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:36,880
Speaker 6: they had like a five yard hitch pass to Tyler

980
00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:38,000
Speaker 6: Boyd that he took to the house.

981
00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:40,040
Speaker 5: That's it. Can't do anything on offense.

982
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:43,400
Speaker 6: There's no explosive this and now they're playing against arguably

983
00:43:43,440 --> 00:43:44,720
Speaker 6: the best defense in the NFL.

984
00:43:45,080 --> 00:43:46,759
Speaker 5: I don't know. I mean, this is a team that

985
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:49,320
Speaker 5: just got the Bengals, can do anyth against the Cowboys.

986
00:43:50,200 --> 00:43:52,040
Speaker 6: I mean it's bad. This offense is a bad shape.

987
00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:55,280
Speaker 6: We know the defense isn't very good. The Steelers' offense

988
00:43:55,360 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 6: is kind of broken right now. They can't run the ball.

989
00:43:57,520 --> 00:44:01,359
Speaker 6: Their offensive line is not playing that well. So it's

990
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:04,319
Speaker 6: just and there's no explosive in this downfield. It's a

991
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 6: short passing attack, which makes it very difficult to sustain

992
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:10,399
Speaker 6: drives consistently. Why we've seen the Steelers drop their last

993
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:12,400
Speaker 6: two games. By the way, this is the seventh I

994
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:15,600
Speaker 6: believe the seventh backup quarterback the Steelers will face in

995
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:18,840
Speaker 6: their first fourteen games. But that this short passing attack

996
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:21,200
Speaker 6: should work here against Cynthia did the other week even

997
00:44:21,239 --> 00:44:21,839
Speaker 6: with Borrow playing.

998
00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:23,560
Speaker 5: I think the other week they won thirty five to thirteen.

999
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:27,560
Speaker 6: Since he hasn't gotten past thirteen against the Steelers the

1000
00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:30,799
Speaker 6: past four times as they've played. And I know this

1001
00:44:30,880 --> 00:44:33,680
Speaker 6: is a nightmare tomlin spot. I've preached about this all

1002
00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 6: the time on the road against teams that are sub

1003
00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:37,400
Speaker 6: five hundred.

1004
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 5: His teams come out flat all the time. He is

1005
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:44,160
Speaker 5: the least profitable coach in the Situation Interaction Labs database.

1006
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:47,360
Speaker 6: He's like thirty five percent against the spread on the

1007
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:49,919
Speaker 6: road as a favorite against sub five hundred teams. He's

1008
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:52,160
Speaker 6: a Rale Rock coach US against the world. Will you up,

1009
00:44:52,160 --> 00:44:55,279
Speaker 6: We'll get you motivated in these spots. Generally speaking, his

1010
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:57,480
Speaker 6: teams come out flat a lot. But I don't think

1011
00:44:57,480 --> 00:44:58,880
Speaker 6: that's the case here. You know, they can lock up

1012
00:44:58,920 --> 00:45:01,799
Speaker 6: the division. They're off two straight losses. I don't think

1013
00:45:01,840 --> 00:45:05,080
Speaker 6: that motivation is going to be a factor. And the

1014
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 6: Bengals are just that bad right now. It's sort of

1015
00:45:07,040 --> 00:45:09,480
Speaker 6: like the Jags with Jake Lowton when the Steelers went

1016
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:11,320
Speaker 6: down there and they covered as a double digit favorite

1017
00:45:11,320 --> 00:45:13,680
Speaker 6: in a similar spot, and that they weren't even coming

1018
00:45:13,680 --> 00:45:15,480
Speaker 6: off two straight losses. So I think tom One actually

1019
00:45:15,520 --> 00:45:18,200
Speaker 6: will have them fired up here. I just don't see

1020
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:21,920
Speaker 6: how the Bengals can score here. So I went Bengals

1021
00:45:21,960 --> 00:45:23,759
Speaker 6: team total under. I lean the Steelers. If you can

1022
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:27,440
Speaker 6: get under fourteen, looks like that's gone out to the line,

1023
00:45:27,960 --> 00:45:30,160
Speaker 6: and I make this close to the fifteen, which is crazy.

1024
00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:33,400
Speaker 6: I just don't it's gonna be really without flukes or

1025
00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:36,640
Speaker 6: special teams. The Bengals do good special teams without turnover

1026
00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:39,799
Speaker 6: flukes or you know, kick return for a touchdown. I

1027
00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:42,520
Speaker 6: don't see this team getting the two touchdowns, so I

1028
00:45:42,560 --> 00:45:44,439
Speaker 6: went with the Bengals team total under this one could

1029
00:45:44,440 --> 00:45:44,839
Speaker 6: be ugly.

1030
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:47,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's echo that. I mean, I'm completely behind that.

1031
00:45:47,920 --> 00:45:50,319
Speaker 7: If you look at this Cincinnati and Pittsburgh team, both

1032
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:52,760
Speaker 7: teams have gone under the total their last four games

1033
00:45:52,760 --> 00:45:55,960
Speaker 7: in a row. Stock talks about this spot for Tomlin

1034
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:57,960
Speaker 7: here they do have the Colts coming up. I mean,

1035
00:45:57,960 --> 00:45:59,320
Speaker 7: I know this is a division game, and I know

1036
00:45:59,360 --> 00:46:02,040
Speaker 7: there's a lot going on the division for this specific game,

1037
00:46:02,560 --> 00:46:05,080
Speaker 7: but that game against Indianapolis next week is pretty big

1038
00:46:05,080 --> 00:46:07,640
Speaker 7: in the playoff pitcher too. So you know, if you

1039
00:46:07,680 --> 00:46:11,200
Speaker 7: look at Cincinnati and what they've done offensively, they've scored

1040
00:46:11,400 --> 00:46:13,000
Speaker 7: let me go ahead and count here their last five

1041
00:46:13,040 --> 00:46:16,600
Speaker 7: games seven, seven, seventeen, nine, and ten. The game they

1042
00:46:16,600 --> 00:46:19,000
Speaker 7: scored seventeen against the Giants, they had a total of

1043
00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:20,800
Speaker 7: one hundred and fifty five offensive yard.

1044
00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:22,840
Speaker 5: H kick or turn to touchdown that game right.

1045
00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:25,000
Speaker 7: Right, So not even offensive points there they got over

1046
00:46:25,080 --> 00:46:28,000
Speaker 7: the thirteen that stuck is talking about so I completely

1047
00:46:28,040 --> 00:46:32,600
Speaker 7: echo the Cincinnati under the team total number here. I

1048
00:46:33,600 --> 00:46:35,640
Speaker 7: don't know if I could ever sit around and take

1049
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:38,719
Speaker 7: Cincinnati plus fourteen. The safer play is, you know, because

1050
00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:41,680
Speaker 7: you know you don't want to factor in the Tomlin perspective,

1051
00:46:42,080 --> 00:46:44,759
Speaker 7: you know, the flat spot, the Indianapolis, whatever spot. It

1052
00:46:44,760 --> 00:46:47,160
Speaker 7: doesn't matter. Cincinnati's gonna have a hard time sport points here.

1053
00:46:47,320 --> 00:46:49,880
Speaker 7: Completely agree with Stucky based on the performance of Cincinnati

1054
00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:50,760
Speaker 7: the last five games.

1055
00:46:51,000 --> 00:46:52,520
Speaker 6: Yeah, and if you're in the trend's top, I mean

1056
00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:54,480
Speaker 6: the Steiers. I don't have owned the Bengals. I think

1057
00:46:54,480 --> 00:46:55,560
Speaker 6: they've won like fifteen in a.

1058
00:46:55,600 --> 00:46:58,759
Speaker 7: Row, one of the last seven, one of the last

1059
00:46:58,760 --> 00:46:59,880
Speaker 7: seven against Pittsburgh.

1060
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1061
00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:01,680
Speaker 6: I think the last time since he beat it was

1062
00:47:01,680 --> 00:47:05,160
Speaker 6: in twenty fifteen, maybe, Yeah, series one eleven straight against

1063
00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:07,360
Speaker 6: the Bengals. Tom has been dominant against the spread on them.

1064
00:47:07,400 --> 00:47:10,520
Speaker 6: And Tomlin's also great against the spread after a loss.

1065
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:13,560
Speaker 6: So if you're into trends, yes, there's a Tomlin flat

1066
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:16,240
Speaker 6: spot here, but that's generally after they've won a game

1067
00:47:16,600 --> 00:47:18,719
Speaker 6: and they're going on the road and they're playing a

1068
00:47:18,840 --> 00:47:19,960
Speaker 6: bad team and they come off flat.

1069
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:21,880
Speaker 5: They've lost too straight here, So I think Tom and

1070
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:23,919
Speaker 5: will have them focused. They'll be ready. And like you said,

1071
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:24,920
Speaker 5: this just comes down to I.

1072
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:28,480
Speaker 6: Don't see how since he scores or moves the ball.

1073
00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:31,719
Speaker 6: Uh so it's pit or nothing. But I think the

1074
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:34,040
Speaker 6: Sincy team total unders the way to go. Hopefully I

1075
00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:36,279
Speaker 6: don't get a fluke and then you were having the

1076
00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:40,080
Speaker 6: sweat like a late garbage time touchdown late in the game,

1077
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:41,000
Speaker 6: which would suck.

1078
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:43,799
Speaker 5: But I think that there's that's the way to go

1079
00:47:43,800 --> 00:47:44,760
Speaker 5: on Monday night football.

1080
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:46,320
Speaker 6: All right, that'll do it for us. It's time to

1081
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:48,239
Speaker 6: go dig into bowls. The college will wall play off.

1082
00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:50,600
Speaker 6: We're gonna be back with many more bowl previews. We're

1083
00:47:50,600 --> 00:47:53,959
Speaker 6: gonna record our next bowl prevyw on Wednesday. I gotta

1084
00:47:53,960 --> 00:47:56,080
Speaker 6: double up the giveaway so you have a chance to

1085
00:47:56,120 --> 00:47:58,880
Speaker 6: get in on the reviews. By the way, I know

1086
00:47:58,880 --> 00:48:00,520
Speaker 6: that a bunch of people have already got and stuff,

1087
00:48:00,560 --> 00:48:02,719
Speaker 6: but I need my producer to send me some some

1088
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:03,719
Speaker 6: of the best reviews.

1089
00:48:03,440 --> 00:48:04,359
Speaker 5: And I'll pick some too.

1090
00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:07,879
Speaker 6: But that Wednesay episode will record like Wednesday afternoon. It'll

1091
00:48:07,880 --> 00:48:10,200
Speaker 6: come out immediately. We'll get it up, edit it, and

1092
00:48:10,200 --> 00:48:12,279
Speaker 6: that'll be for the bulls. There's a Christmas e Bowl

1093
00:48:12,520 --> 00:48:15,120
Speaker 6: with Houston and Hawaii. I'm sure that'll be a big

1094
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:17,120
Speaker 6: voicemail bowl, so we better get it right. People with

1095
00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:20,080
Speaker 6: their trying to avoid their families watching Hawaii and Houston.

1096
00:48:20,880 --> 00:48:22,920
Speaker 6: And then we'll talk about all the bowls on Friday

1097
00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:26,279
Speaker 6: through the weekend, and then we'll be back again early

1098
00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 6: in the week the next week to do another batch.

1099
00:48:28,719 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 5: So it's time for us to go get to work.

1100
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:32,960
Speaker 5: Thank you, as always for listening. We appreciate all of you.

1101
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:35,479
Speaker 5: Subscribe on Subscribe subscribe. You know the drill tell.

1102
00:48:35,440 --> 00:48:38,200
Speaker 6: Friend, telling enemy, leave a review five star really helps

1103
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:40,680
Speaker 6: us out. Just take one second to do it. It's time

1104
00:48:40,719 --> 00:48:42,640
Speaker 6: for us to go get to work and find some

1105
00:48:42,680 --> 00:48:46,640
Speaker 6: winners for all of us during bowl season. We're gonna

1106
00:48:46,680 --> 00:48:49,480
Speaker 6: be back on Christmas Eve, but happy Holidays to everyone

1107
00:48:49,719 --> 00:48:50,960
Speaker 6: celebrating regardless.

1108
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:51,799
Speaker 5: We'll catch you all later.

1109
00:48:51,920 --> 00:49:03,600
Speaker 2: Cheers, Peace, Out.

1110
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 11: Of times, all the moles one looking times

1111
00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:16,840
Speaker 5: Are We're finished talking.