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Speaker 1: All right, here we go fifteen twenty, twenty five, thirty

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Speaker 1: thirty five, forty twenty five fifty and the.

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Speaker 2: Kickers black the college football world stunners, Oh.

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Speaker 1: My goodness, he's stumble the football, the lateral turn a

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Speaker 1: corner on the up, get you. The lad came up

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Speaker 1: the day of the night.

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Speaker 2: It's not the size of the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 2: It's the size of the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 1: What's up, degener Nation. Welcome to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 1: Campus podcast. This is the week thirteen college football betting preview.

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Speaker 1: I'm stuck in with me, as always is Colin Wilson.

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Speaker 1: We got Thursday football, Friday football, Saturday football ready to roll.

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Speaker 2: The BC boys once said no sleep till Brooklyn. You

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Speaker 2: and I no sleep till Turkey. And then even that's

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Speaker 2: just a small map before. We have a couple of

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Speaker 2: live shows this weekend. And it's sad to say goodbye

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Speaker 2: to Maction tonight, where I got to see Northern Illinois

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Speaker 2: not come back. I'm glad that my under held there

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Speaker 2: at sixty three, but goodbye MAC. Hello. A full slate

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Speaker 2: of games and a college football playoff picture that's about

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Speaker 2: to completely change. It's been incredible. Maybe we've maction has

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Speaker 2: been phenomenal.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I finally beat a backup quarterback and over to

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Speaker 1: beat Northern Illinois. It took me pretty much the entire season.

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Speaker 1: So now the next test is to get Kent State

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Speaker 1: home for our futures and get them to play Northern

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Speaker 1: Illinois and hopefully not your heartbroken. But they got to

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Speaker 1: get through my how First we'll get to that. We

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Speaker 1: have so many games to get to, best bets for Friday,

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Speaker 1: best bets for Saturday, money line dogs, and we're going

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Speaker 1: to go through almost everything here. Everything on the board

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Speaker 1: have you covered all weekend. So let's without further ado,

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Speaker 1: let's just jump right in.

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Speaker 2: Happy Thanksgiving gamblers. We're thankful for you, all right.

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Speaker 1: There's no look ahead or look away. Now, there's a

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Speaker 1: couple different angles that will kind of mix in throughout,

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Speaker 1: but there's no reason to do whole segment. So let's

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Speaker 1: just jump right in to our four marquee games of

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Speaker 1: the weekend. And they are four historic rivalries. It's another

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Speaker 1: fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out the marquee matchups.

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Speaker 1: We'll all end up bedding for week thirteen. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's start in the Big Ten With the game, Ohio

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Speaker 1: State travels to ann Arbor fresh off and absolute beat

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Speaker 1: down of fellow in state school Michigan State. They will

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Speaker 1: look to finish the job here and punch a ticket

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Speaker 1: to the Big Ten Championship, but Michigan will be looking

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Speaker 1: to play spoiler and also potentially try to get to

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Speaker 1: the College football Playoff. This is the one hundred and

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Speaker 1: seventeenth meeting between these two schools. First came in eighteen

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Speaker 1: ninety seven. Michigan leads fifty eight to fifty one and six.

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Speaker 1: The largest victory came in nineteen oh two. Michigan won

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Speaker 1: eighty six to nothing. That might arguably is the greatest

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Speaker 1: college football team of all time. I don't know anything

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Speaker 1: about it, but they also beat Michigan State then one

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Speaker 1: hundred and nineteen nothing. That year, they beat Iowa one

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Speaker 1: hundred and seven to nothing. For the season, they allowed

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Speaker 1: just twelve points and they outscored their eleven opponents six

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Speaker 1: hundred and forty four to twelve with nine shutouts. I

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Speaker 1: don't know who was on that team, but that's the

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Speaker 1: largest Winever longest streak ever was Michigan nineteen oh two.

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Speaker 1: Michigan team was part of it. They won nine in

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Speaker 1: a row. Between nineteen o one and nineteen o nine,

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Speaker 1: Ohio States won eight in a row, so they're looking

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Speaker 1: to match that. And by the way, Michigan fans and

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Speaker 1: all the events always watched this. It's fifty eight fifty

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Speaker 1: one six. You know, Ohio State has been creeping up

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Speaker 1: here in the overall season series. This game will obviously

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Speaker 1: as always every year, it's at noon on Fox. Michigan

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Speaker 1: is an eight eight ish eight eight and a half

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Speaker 1: point home dog. We've seen this line flip around, you know,

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Speaker 1: so we've seen a good touchdown at seven and a half,

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Speaker 1: eight eight and a half. The look at was around

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Speaker 1: six six and a half. What I find interesting is

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Speaker 1: that this it breathes through the seven compared to the

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Speaker 1: look at market because Ohios looks so impressive, but I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is what I was expecting Ohio State to do

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Speaker 1: that against one of the worst hass defenses in Power five.

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Speaker 1: Michigan also dominated too, so I was curious to see

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Speaker 1: that total sitting at six four and a half. I

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Speaker 1: think the biggest question here is ken Michigan's secondary which

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Speaker 1: grades out well right across the board. If you look

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Speaker 1: at their pass efficiency numbers if you look at their

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Speaker 1: individual metrics grades out well. But yeah, I mean they

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Speaker 1: faced the West. I'm pretty explosive Western Michigan, but it's

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Speaker 1: a MAC team. They faced Washington, Northern Illinois, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Northwestern.

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Speaker 1: You know, Michigan State put up thirty seven Indiana, Penn

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Speaker 1: State and Weather and then that fraud Maryland. So the

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Speaker 1: schedule of opposing pass offenses hasn't necessarily been the biggest

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Speaker 1: gauntlet that you'll ever come across. So I think that's

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Speaker 1: the handicap here is deciphering. Okay, we can go back

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Speaker 1: to those Don Brown defenses. Right, It didn't matter how

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Speaker 1: good the Michigan defense looked. As soon as they came

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Speaker 1: up across Ohio State, they would get torchs. And to

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Speaker 1: be fair, this is your Heisman front runner and c J.

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Speaker 1: Stroud and the best receiving cores in the country side

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Speaker 1: of the ball. Bicually wants to run the ball. That's

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Speaker 1: Ohio State's strength is a defense. Ken Michigan hit some

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Speaker 1: plays and take advantage of some potential weak spots in

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Speaker 1: the Ohio State secondary. I think that's ultimately the handicap.

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Speaker 1: What do you see here? Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I think the handicap is the coverage. Because you talk

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Speaker 2: about Don Brown and he would run man. He would

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Speaker 2: send forty percent blitz and run man. That was a

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Speaker 2: recipe for absolute disaster.

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Speaker 1: Solve your problems with aggression.

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Speaker 2: Okay, sit there and go, oh, we're gonna read this pool,

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Speaker 2: We're gonna run up the fuck that.

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Speaker 1: Let's go and you're right, quick crossers, quick crossers in

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Speaker 1: space all day and then.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and I think that's what the handicap should be.

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Speaker 2: There's gonna be a lot of other content places out there.

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Speaker 2: They're just gonna, you know, throw out shit that doesn't matter.

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Speaker 2: So let's get down to it. Mike McDonald, the defensive coordinator,

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Speaker 2: comes from the Ravens. He's run a three to three

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Speaker 2: five base from a very high level. That's what he's

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Speaker 2: run schematically. But he switches between man, he runs zone,

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Speaker 2: he runs powdered routes. Ryan Day called this on Monday

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Speaker 2: a very complicated defense to attack. From a secondary perspective,

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Speaker 2: Michigan is ninth in coverage for a reason. They have

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Speaker 2: been able to shut down opposing passing attacks. Now stuck.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned, you know the level of competition that they've

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Speaker 2: gone up against. But they are a multiple front that

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Speaker 2: can switch in and out of any kind of defensive scheme.

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Speaker 2: If they need to change after one drive or two drives,

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Speaker 2: they can do that. And some of the numbers that

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Speaker 2: they've put up individually, as for at the cornerback position

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Speaker 2: and as safety are extremely impressive from an individual standpoint

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Speaker 2: in grading. So I think what you have to do

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Speaker 2: first is start with Ohio State and say, did anybody

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Speaker 2: give them any problems over the last two months from

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Speaker 2: the passing game perspective. Well, wouldn't you know it?

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Speaker 1: Corn Baby, Cornbaby our.

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Speaker 2: Favorite team to bet on this year in Nebraska, And

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Speaker 2: I just didn't even realize this untill I did a

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Speaker 2: deep dive on this.

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Speaker 1: CJ.

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Speaker 2: Stroud has not had a turnover worthy play since mid September,

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Speaker 2: I think against Tulsa, but he had four of them

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Speaker 2: against Nebraska. Now, why is it Nebraska running a three

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Speaker 2: to four scheme, usually a heavy blitz with Eric Shenander.

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Speaker 2: Why is that the game where c J. Stroud had

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Speaker 2: four turnover worthy plays but over the past nine games

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Speaker 2: he's had none? What is it that makes Nebraska so

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Speaker 2: much more special? So if you dive into the game plan,

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Speaker 2: they didn't blitz him. They let off the pressure. They

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Speaker 2: backed up a few guys off the line of scrimmage.

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Speaker 2: They put more guys in the secondary to control the throws. Now,

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Speaker 2: I know, Chris Lave, they weren't at full strength with

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Speaker 2: their wide receivers, but that doesn't forgive CJ. Stroud for

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Speaker 2: having four turnover worthy throws, more than half than he's

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Speaker 2: had the entire season, and that was going up against

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Speaker 2: Jojo Demon Nebraska. They just completely shut CJ. Stroud down.

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Speaker 2: He hasn't faced a set of corners like Michigan's DJ

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Speaker 2: Turner and Vincent Gray. Both rank in the top one

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Speaker 2: hundred individually for all corners in PFF. You add in

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Speaker 2: safety Brad Hawkins individually, he grades his eighteenth best safety

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Speaker 2: in college football. So what Nebraska was able to do

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Speaker 2: is take their foot off the gas with the blitz,

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Speaker 2: put more guys back, and look for any kind of

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Speaker 2: routes that they want to run. And CJ. Stroud had

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Speaker 2: his worst day. Now you could do this if you're Michigan. Why,

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Speaker 2: Because you have two of the best defensive line players

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Speaker 2: in the nation with Jabo and Hutchinson. That's all you

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Speaker 2: need for pressure. You don't have to send five guys.

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Speaker 2: You don't have to send four guys. These two are

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Speaker 2: enough for that entire offensive line. And when you look

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Speaker 2: at that offensive line, there are offensive linemen that have

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Speaker 2: had problems with pass blocking, with run blocking, and that's

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Speaker 2: just going to be a huge issue against this Michigan defense.

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Speaker 2: So if you go to the other side of the ball,

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Speaker 2: and so when we say the handicap really is what

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Speaker 2: Michigan do in the secondary, I one hundred percent believe it.

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Speaker 2: Because of the grading of the cornerbacks and the safeties,

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Speaker 2: I believe they can contain what we've seen the last

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Speaker 2: couple weeks out of Ohio State. So Michigan's offense to me,

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Speaker 2: is the real deal. They're going to give Ohio States

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Speaker 2: front seven a lot of issues. The Buckeyes are sixty

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Speaker 2: ninth and stuff rate going up against the Wolverines that

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Speaker 2: are fifth and stuff rate on offense number one in

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Speaker 2: havoc allowed. They do not make mistakes, they don't allow

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Speaker 2: anybody to tackle them in the backfield. They don't fumble

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Speaker 2: the ball. This is a very disciplined unit.

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Speaker 1: And also if you ball coach TV, it's good special

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Speaker 1: teams too. Good Connor good kicker. They don't turn it over. Now,

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Speaker 1: the question is can they just have to stay close

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Speaker 1: doing that or in the lead. If you get too

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Speaker 1: far behind here, that's what you can have happened, because

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Speaker 1: then Michigan has to come out of what they are

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Speaker 1: and change their identity, and then all of a sudden

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Speaker 1: you might have to start forcing some throw. So at

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Speaker 1: the beginning of this game is huge.

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Speaker 2: We think Ohio State's defense is good enough to shut

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Speaker 2: down any kind of explosive attack from anybody. It's not

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Speaker 2: Michigan's bread and butter, and they don't want.

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Speaker 1: To do that.

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Speaker 2: They're going to have to throw here, Well, they might

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Speaker 2: have to throw, but I think they can run all day.

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Speaker 2: I simply think they can run all day. They can

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Speaker 2: control the clock, and I think they're gonna play well

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Speaker 2: in the secondary and they're gonna cover any spread above seven. Now,

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Speaker 2: the bypoint for me is seven. That's it. So I'm

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Speaker 2: taking the Wolverines. I think they keep it close. The

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Speaker 2: number just moved way too much. I mean a Vegas

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Speaker 2: shop was offering this at four and a half at

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Speaker 2: the end of last week, so I mean it's quite

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Speaker 2: the move.

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Speaker 1: I'm I'm looking. I was potentially looking at the under here,

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Speaker 1: but because I figure that Michigan is gonna they're objective here.

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Speaker 1: And what I mean when I said they're gonna have

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Speaker 1: to throw, it's like they're gonna have to hit some passes,

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Speaker 1: like you're gonna have to hit some explosive passes in

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Speaker 1: this game. But their objective is gonna be, I assume,

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Speaker 1: is to shorten this game and keep the Ohio State

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Speaker 1: offense off of the field right, run the play clock down,

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Speaker 1: ball control offense, field position, and then they have to

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Speaker 1: hope that their defense is good enough. Am I running

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Speaker 1: the bet at No?

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Speaker 2: Not yet.

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Speaker 1: Am I running to bet the under? Not yet? But

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Speaker 1: if we do get a ten, I would love I

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Speaker 1: would love to jump in on the Schigan at ten.

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Speaker 1: If this hits sixty five, I would like to get

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Speaker 1: them under sixty five or sixty five and a half.

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Speaker 1: We're recording this on Tuesday, by the way, so we

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Speaker 1: can have this out to you for Thanksgiving. So a

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Speaker 1: lot can change. We still have to dig into some things.

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Speaker 1: That's why we're gonna have a live show on Friday

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Speaker 1: and Saturday morning. Also the Action NETWORKAP Inaction Network dot com.

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Speaker 1: So as of right now, it's hold for me. Keep

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Speaker 1: digging a little bit. Your play here.

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Speaker 2: Already shoved a nickel across the counter on Michigan at eight,

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Speaker 2: I would buy it again at seven and a half.

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Speaker 2: I'd played for less at seven. And I think it's

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Speaker 2: correlated though, right I think the total is too high also.

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Speaker 2: But if you like Michigan, you like the under. If

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Speaker 2: you like Ohio State, then you like the over.

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Speaker 1: Look At you saday with Boatdog Jim, our car is

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Speaker 1: going to be very happy. Don't gamble, don't associate with gamblers.

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Speaker 1: Avoid it like the plague. Let's check in with boat

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Speaker 1: Dog Jim. I lean that way too. I think that's

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Speaker 1: where the value is just not enough for me yet

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Speaker 1: to jump in with some of the questions I have.

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Speaker 1: But I'm gonna keep digging there. All right, Let's move

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Speaker 1: on to the Big twelve. This Bedlam Oklahoma at Oklahoma State.

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma State's a four point favorite over under fifty. This

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Speaker 1: is one hundred and sixteenth edition of Bedlam. Oklahoma won

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Speaker 1: the first meeting seventy five to nothing back in nineteen

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Speaker 1: oh four. Oklahoma leads the all time series ninety to

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Speaker 1: eighteen and seven ties. They also in the longest winning

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Speaker 1: streak of nineteen spans from like the late forties of

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Speaker 1: the sixties. They've currently won six in a row and

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Speaker 1: they've owned Gundy. Gundy's two and fourteen straight up in

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Speaker 1: this series and four and twelve against the spread. He

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Speaker 1: actually has been favored three times, I think twenty seventeen,

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Speaker 1: short favorite, twenty eleven and twenty twelve. There's a book

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Speaker 1: called Bets, Drugs and Rock and Roll. In that book,

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Speaker 1: have you read it or heard of it?

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Speaker 2: I wrote bedlum up for Action Network, and I immediately

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Speaker 2: talked about the soup. Go ahead.

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Speaker 1: The soup. Yeah. So they the mob fixed this that

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Speaker 1: we're apparently fix the game back in nineteen fifty four.

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Speaker 1: What they did is they convinced the a chef that

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Speaker 1: was feeding the team to put laxatives in all of

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Speaker 1: the Oklahoma players suits. They apparently all had like explosive

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Speaker 1: diarrheam were sick. They won. Oklahoma won. They won fourteen

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Speaker 1: to nothing, but the spread was twenty and a half,

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Speaker 1: so the plan worked. My calculations are correct here. Gotta

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Speaker 1: see some serious This is obviously a huge game because

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Speaker 1: both teams still have hopes of getting to the college table. Playoff.

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Speaker 1: I think Oklahoma State probably has a better chance right now,

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Speaker 1: but if either wins out, they're gonna at least be

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Speaker 1: in the discussion, and especially if they get helped elsewhere. Well, first,

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Speaker 1: let's go back to Oklahoma, Oklahoma Iowa State. Last week.

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Speaker 1: I would bet I would say one HUNDREDI of hundred

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Speaker 1: times again, there was a five or six plays, fluke plays, fumbles,

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Speaker 1: fourth down swings that just all went Oklahoma's way. Caleb Williams,

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Speaker 1: your boy is lost right now. I think that he

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Speaker 1: has all the town in the world, but he's lost

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Speaker 1: in the pocket. If you watched him last I mean

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Speaker 1: when he got hit in the end zone and fumbled

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Speaker 1: the pocket. Awareness is gone. He's confused. The last two

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Speaker 1: games against Baylor, He's seventeen of thirty six sub fifty percent.

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Speaker 1: He's seventeen for thirty six at sub fifty percent, for

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Speaker 1: two hundred and twenty nine yards total, one touchdown, three picks,

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Speaker 1: and has been sacked seven times. It's bad. He doesn't

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Speaker 1: look right right now. Digging into his box scores, it's like,

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Speaker 1: all right, he's struggling against a little bit against Kansas,

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Speaker 1: and he tourched Texas Tech so to a lot of people,

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Speaker 1: and then against Baylor and Iowa State, seventeen of thirty

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Speaker 1: six combined. That's sub fifty percent for a total across

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Speaker 1: two games of two hundred and twenty nine yards, one touchdown,

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Speaker 1: three picks, seven sacks, and a couple of bad fumbles. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Baylor good defense, I was State good defense. Well, guess

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Speaker 1: what you're going up about to go up against a

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Speaker 1: great defense, maybe the second best defense in the country

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Speaker 1: behind Georgia. The Oklahoma State defense is bawling. I mean

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Speaker 1: they have pros in that secondary, excellent safeties across the board.

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Speaker 1: Jim Knowles, I hope gets the Royals Award as the

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Speaker 1: best assistant coach in college football. That defense can get

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Speaker 1: after the quarterback, it can cover. There are really no weaknesses.

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Speaker 1: The offense has been better, still have questions about it.

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Speaker 1: To mean, Tay Martin's healthy, I don't think they're gonna

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Speaker 1: be able to run much against Oklahoma, and the Oklahoma defense,

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Speaker 1: which was really pissed poor for long stretches of the season,

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Speaker 1: has started trending upward, and I think that has to

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Speaker 1: do with health. Woody Washington back, he saw Redmond back

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Speaker 1: on the defensive line. Grand back at corner turner yell back.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they just had a lot of players that

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Speaker 1: were in and now you know a linebacker two. So look,

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Speaker 1: I don't see this Oklahoma offense doing anything. I think

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Speaker 1: this Oklahoma State defense is that good, and Kayla Williams

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Speaker 1: is struggling that much, and I think Oklahoma's defense can

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Speaker 1: hold it zone against an Oklahoma offense. It's not going

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Speaker 1: to Oklaha State offense. It's not going to value. I

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Speaker 1: think Oklahoma State wins this by two touchdowns, but I

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Speaker 1: make it around four or five. Actually, I think it

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Speaker 1: like five and a half after major adjustments of looking

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Speaker 1: back over the past couple of weeks. I want to

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Speaker 1: get some exposure to Oklahoma State somehow. My play for

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Speaker 1: now is the under I think the Oklahoma State defense

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Speaker 1: is is that good. The Oklahoma offense is being overvalued here,

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Speaker 1: and the Oklahoma defense it's not being accounted for the

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Speaker 1: fact that they've gotten a lot healthier, and I think

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Speaker 1: that they're on an upward trajectory here. So give me

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Speaker 1: the bedroom under fifth. I think it's sitting at fifty

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Speaker 1: to fifty and a half right now. I like it

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Speaker 1: anything at fifty or above.

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Speaker 2: What say you, I will say with confidence that this

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Speaker 2: is the second best defense to the nation. And I

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Speaker 2: mean I think the market has spoken. This is a

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Speaker 2: number that opened up minus one flew through minus three.

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Speaker 2: We have a book in Jersey is you and I

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Speaker 2: are recording that's at four and a half. If you

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Speaker 2: go out to the Saturn Ratings, which not only does

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Speaker 2: a power rating, but it does a recency weighted rating

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Speaker 2: where it only like considers the last couple of games.

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Speaker 2: They're up to minus six in this game. And I

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Speaker 2: know that's really hard for people that believe in the

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Speaker 2: Sooners and believe in Oklahoma and think that the College

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Speaker 2: Foowl playoff is always going to be this certain group

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Speaker 2: of teams. But I'm here to tell everybody, like I've

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Speaker 2: said in the College Football ride up the last three

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Speaker 2: weeks for the playoff and who has value, Oklahoma State

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Speaker 2: can absolutely go to the playoff. There is no reason

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Speaker 2: this defense cannot carry them through these last two weeks.

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Speaker 2: So when you mentioned Kayleb Williams having problems, it's just

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Speaker 2: it's not looking good right now. I mean Oklahoma trailed

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Speaker 2: the trailed Kansas in the fourth quarter. They had half

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Speaker 2: of their rushing attempts stuffed by Baylor. They needed Brock

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Speaker 2: Party to fumble a scoop and score before halftime against

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Speaker 2: Iowa State. Fumble luck is a part of the Sooners identity.

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Speaker 2: Twelve fumbles this season. They've recovered all all of them

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Speaker 2: except for one. Tell me how great that ball bounces.

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Speaker 2: For Oklahoma, the offensive numbers are elite. I mean they're

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Speaker 2: fifth in offensive finishing drives, they're tenth and passing down

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Speaker 2: success rate. There's two things that have to be addressed

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Speaker 2: though with this Oklahoma offense. Have it allowed and a

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Speaker 2: stat that we used on Alabama in twenty twenty momentum

359
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Speaker 2: killer rate, because this Oklahoma offense has shades of being elite,

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Speaker 2: and then they have a handful of drives where they

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Speaker 2: look sloppy and lost. And the Sooners are eighty fifth

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Speaker 2: and have it allowed because of the twelve fumbles, and

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Speaker 2: they've allowed sixty three tackles for loss. That is a

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Speaker 2: lot that's not good. Against the Cowboys defense that is

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Speaker 2: fourth in the nation's stuff rate, they will be in

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Speaker 2: your backfield in a New York minute. The Sooners consistently

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Speaker 2: have ten plus yard penalties. One of those variables that's

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Speaker 2: in momentum killer rate, which includes like interceptions, fumbles, field

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Speaker 2: goal misses. The Sooners have a lot of things creeping

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Speaker 2: up where they're shooting themselves in the foot. Offensively, the

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Speaker 2: offensive is elite, but they can fall off a ten

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Speaker 2: really fast. It's like a Jekyll and Hyde.

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Speaker 1: Thing with them.

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Speaker 2: What should worry anyone that has a Sooners ticket is

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Speaker 2: the defense. I mean specifically this secondary. Oklahoma does not

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Speaker 2: have a single cornerback graded in the top two hundred

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Speaker 2: players in PFF. But the big story of the season

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Speaker 2: for Oklahoma State, I mean, if you want to the

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Speaker 2: whole Jim Knowles thing, I'm getting there. The offense in

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Speaker 2: Spencer Sanders. This is the best season Spencer Sanders has

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Speaker 2: ever put up. In previous seasons when he had Tylan

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Speaker 2: Wallace and Chuba Hubbard, it was always about his pocket awareness,

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Speaker 2: his fumbles, his footwork. This season increases adjusted completion percentage

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Speaker 2: when he's blitzed from sixty percent to seventy five percent.

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Speaker 2: There is no difference if you blitz Spencer Sanders or

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Speaker 2: if you don't. He posts the same adjusted completion rate percentage.

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Speaker 2: He has had a massive increase in efficiency. Then then

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Speaker 2: we get to the Cowboys defense. And when I say

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Speaker 2: their second, only Georgia has allowed less red zone attempts,

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Speaker 2: think about that. You can't even get to the red

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Speaker 2: zone on Oklahoma State. They've only allowed like twenty three

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Speaker 2: and the Pokes are seventeenth and opponent red zone touchdown percentage.

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Speaker 2: They don't allow you to score touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: So if you have.

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Speaker 2: Thoughts of well, at four, I think I should buy Oklahoma.

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Speaker 2: At five, I think I should buy Oklahoma. No One

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Speaker 2: generates more three and outs than Oklahoma State. I don't

398
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Speaker 2: know the ceiling. Like when you say I think they

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Speaker 2: can win by fourteen, I don't know the ceiling of

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Speaker 2: this Oklahoma State team. I know the floor. I know

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Speaker 2: a three point loss to Iowa State. I know the

402
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Speaker 2: limitations of the offense. I see how bad they are

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Speaker 2: running the ball outside the top one hundred and rushing

404
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Speaker 2: success rate. But Spencer Sanders is fine when he's got

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Speaker 2: pressure that you didn't used to be the case. His

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Speaker 2: footwork is fine. And this defense is playing out of

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Speaker 2: their mind. They're playing just to shave below Georgia. So

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Speaker 2: I'm with you. I'm in on Oklahoma State, and I

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Speaker 2: don't know their ceiling.

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Speaker 1: Let's see, they now lead the Nation in sacks, tackles

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Speaker 1: for loss, third down defense. They're top five in scoring defense,

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Speaker 1: number two, total defense, number three, rushing defense number four,

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Speaker 1: first down defense number four. I mean, I could go

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Speaker 1: on and on and on. Tons of pressure and they're

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Speaker 1: just so strong and physical on the back end with

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Speaker 1: especially those safeties, but they can just blanket you. And

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Speaker 1: I think Caleb Williams is in for a long day.

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Speaker 2: The Colin Oliver kid, the freshman on the defensive line,

419
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Speaker 2: he just eats offensive lineman for breakfast. I mean, I've

420
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Speaker 2: been piping up on the Cowboys for a couple of weeks.

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Speaker 2: Now this defense is insane and they can carry them

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Speaker 2: all the way to the Cultural Playoff.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's move on and let's talk a little

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Speaker 1: Iron Bowl.

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Speaker 2: I feel strong about this now, really strong.

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Speaker 1: This is the eighty sixth Iron Bowl meeting between Alabama

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Speaker 1: and Auburn. Albert is a nineteen and a half point

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Speaker 1: home dog. Total fifty six opened up I think a

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Speaker 1: place or two Like waylo I have fifty to fifty

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Speaker 1: one and got immediately met up this And by the way,

431
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 1: we say Iron Bowl, think about why it's called the

432
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,119
Speaker 1: Iron Bowl. Well, they used to play this in Birmingham,

433
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,400
Speaker 1: which is known for this. It's steel industry, and that's

434
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:55,480
Speaker 1: how it's got its name. The first meeting happened in

435
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 1: eighteen ninety three. FAMA leads forty seven to thirty seven,

436
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 1: with one tie. Auburn's won three of the past four

437
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 1: at home, though including the past two. Never forget to

438
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:13,679
Speaker 1: kick six. That's in our intro, and they're six and

439
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,920
Speaker 1: two against the spread at home in this series since

440
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,840
Speaker 1: two thousand and five. Weird things happen at Jordan Hare,

441
00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:24,159
Speaker 1: especially at night. My question here is I can't figure

442
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:26,920
Speaker 1: out Alabama. I tried to bet them last week. I

443
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,479
Speaker 1: mean they are so jackal and Hyde where they have

444
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 1: flalls and in some weeks they don't show up. Other

445
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 1: weeks they don't. I think they just wait to see

446
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:38,360
Speaker 1: who I bet and then act accordingly. I only can

447
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 1: figure them out against a mercer team total over. That

448
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:45,080
Speaker 1: was fun for five twenty bucks whatever if we get

449
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:47,919
Speaker 1: down on that. So I can't figure out Alabama, but

450
00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 1: they have sometimes they have lapses and coverage the offensive

451
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 1: line is down. The question here becomes Ken Finley take

452
00:23:56,359 --> 00:24:00,920
Speaker 1: advantage of Alabama's secondary and or Ken Tank Bigsby, who

453
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:03,480
Speaker 1: ran pretty well. Last week. Get it going on the

454
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:07,639
Speaker 1: ground to keep the Alabama offense off of the field

455
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:11,400
Speaker 1: and the other side of the ball. Alburt secondary, which

456
00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:14,720
Speaker 1: has talent, but it's been slipping in pass coverage of late.

457
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:20,959
Speaker 1: Can it slow down Alabama? And I'm worried about Finley especially,

458
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,920
Speaker 1: he just doesn't have Albert just doesn't have great receivers.

459
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 1: You compare the receivers the receiving cores on these two teams,

460
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:31,440
Speaker 1: and it's pretty drastic. And I'm worried about a little

461
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 1: bit about the Auburn defensive backfield and what I've seen

462
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:38,200
Speaker 1: in recent weeks. But at the end of the day,

463
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:40,440
Speaker 1: and this general doesn't work out well for me. The

464
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 1: sneime numbers too high. So if I just want to

465
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 1: just from a pure numbers perspective, I have to take Auburn.

466
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 1: That probably won't end well. If I got a twenty

467
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 1: one on Auburn right now, right away, twenty probably nineteen

468
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 1: and a half, little dice here, help me out here,

469
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:57,440
Speaker 1: because I can't figure out Alabama.

470
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 2: This was a clear bet for me. I saw this.

471
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:05,959
Speaker 2: If it doesn't cash, I'll be surprised. I mean, usually

472
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:09,360
Speaker 2: you know when you're a gambler or you're an investor

473
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:12,439
Speaker 2: in sports. You can't go in it with blinders and

474
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:14,399
Speaker 2: say this is absolutely the way it's gonna happen. You

475
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 2: have to be able to shoot holes in your theory

476
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 2: and you have to back it up with data. This one,

477
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 2: I'm not so sure I can see the downside of

478
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 2: the bed. So the number I project is at twelve,

479
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:28,399
Speaker 2: So of course you're getting this inflated tax. It's similar

480
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:31,680
Speaker 2: to Arkansas. Right, We're hanging below three scores, no resistance

481
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:34,879
Speaker 2: in the number. Can't find any public support for the dog.

482
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:37,919
Speaker 2: Auburn's on a three game losing streak, and there is

483
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,399
Speaker 2: a ton of midpicking going on down and from the

484
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:44,119
Speaker 2: local media specifically about how this team performs as the

485
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:47,960
Speaker 2: game goes on. Harson is coming under a lot of criticism.

486
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 2: I mean, there was the vaccine, there was firing of

487
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 2: the wide receivers coach. Now we're on a three game

488
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:56,119
Speaker 2: losing streak. This is not Boise in the Mountain West.

489
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,399
Speaker 2: You're gonna have to earn your paycheck. Auburn led South

490
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:02,400
Speaker 2: Carolina fourteen to zero in the first quarter and then

491
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:04,920
Speaker 2: scored three points for the rest of the game. Some

492
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 2: really bad play calling. They had a fourth and one call.

493
00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:09,360
Speaker 1: Threw it up in the air.

494
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:11,920
Speaker 2: They threw it in the air with TJ. Finley. When

495
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:14,199
Speaker 2: you had a Tank Bigsby game where he went for

496
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 2: one hundred and sixty something yards, he was absolutely tearing

497
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:19,920
Speaker 2: the game cocks apart. I don't know what that play

498
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 2: calling was. So Harson deserves to get chewed out. And

499
00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 2: one of the key stats that we like to source

500
00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:27,879
Speaker 2: is the middle eight. And that's where you look at

501
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 2: the point differential four minutes before half, four minutes after half.

502
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,359
Speaker 2: This is where Harson is not earning his five million

503
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:37,520
Speaker 2: dollars plus. Alabama second in the nation of middle eight.

504
00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:40,000
Speaker 2: Auburn is one hundred and seventh in the middle eight.

505
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 2: Games have completely fallen apart in the middle eight for

506
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:48,080
Speaker 2: Auburn this season, and that extends into the second half.

507
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:50,440
Speaker 2: It's just not a middle a problem. It's a second

508
00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:52,159
Speaker 2: half problem. You go back to Penn State, you go

509
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 2: back to any game. The longer it goes, they get terrible.

510
00:26:56,600 --> 00:27:00,200
Speaker 2: That's a reflection of coaching and not making adjustments. Maybe

511
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,560
Speaker 2: you can get away without making adjustments in the Mountain West,

512
00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:04,280
Speaker 2: but this is the SEC, which is kind of like

513
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:07,239
Speaker 2: the NFL. The NFL can change their game plan on

514
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:09,440
Speaker 2: a dime. That's how coaches get up to the NFL

515
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 2: drive by drive. They're looking at iPads, they're looking at formations,

516
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:16,359
Speaker 2: are making changes. Harson's not doing that at all. There's

517
00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:19,159
Speaker 2: one script and we're doing it the entire game. And

518
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:22,639
Speaker 2: if you can't change on the fly, college football teams

519
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:24,960
Speaker 2: they script three drives after that they try to change it.

520
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 2: Harson doesn't change anything, So that doesn't necessarily mean that

521
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 2: Alabama is going to run away with this game. The

522
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:35,359
Speaker 2: tighter outside the top fifty in pass blocking lineyards havoc

523
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 2: allowed on offense and Saban was asked at his presser

524
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 2: on Monday, are you making any more changes to the

525
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 2: offensive line? Without naming any names, Saban just throws them

526
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:46,399
Speaker 2: out there, the same guys I've been talking about on

527
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:50,119
Speaker 2: this podcast. I think Darien Dalcourt, Chris Owens, and Damian George.

528
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:51,919
Speaker 2: They're solid and there will be no changes to the

529
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:53,439
Speaker 2: offensive line for the rest of the season.

530
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 1: So don't ask. There is no more. I know you

531
00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 1: would like to some kind of way extract something out

532
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 1: of this pipe that's not there. It's not there.

533
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 2: You all speculate and create things and then you want

534
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 2: people to respond to it. I got news for you.

535
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,400
Speaker 2: The grading for the run blocking and the pass blocking

536
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:14,719
Speaker 2: says a completely different story about those three players. So

537
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 2: Satan says, that's not going to change, and that is

538
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 2: a point of emphasis and a point of attack for

539
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:21,800
Speaker 2: that Auburn can can take advantage of. But Bryce Young

540
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,119
Speaker 2: is I figured it out now. You called him captain

541
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:26,920
Speaker 2: checked down. Earlier in the season. I was wondering why

542
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 2: we're never throwing past twenty yards down the field, and

543
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:32,439
Speaker 2: I figured it out. Bryce Young is essentially competing in

544
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:36,639
Speaker 2: the World Championship of Darts. Every week. He is waiting

545
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 2: for the defense to expose themselves. He looks for the

546
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 2: open spot and that's where he goes and he lets

547
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:44,800
Speaker 2: the explosive players do their work. So it's not that

548
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 2: Bryce Young doesn't have the arm, and it's not that

549
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 2: Bryce m doesn't have the decision making. He's essentially a

550
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 2: glorified darts player. That's all he's been. So South Carolina

551
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 2: beat Auburn with just ten to fifteen passing and three

552
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 2: explosive plays. I'm still like this box score amazes me

553
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 2: that they won this game. But here's the most important thing.

554
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 2: They didn't target Roger McCreary once. Zero times. They went

555
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 2: after him. They went after Smoke Monday once. They attacked

556
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 2: every other player in the secondary. And I guarantee that

557
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:16,480
Speaker 2: Alabama saw.

558
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:19,720
Speaker 1: Pat solid South Caroline all year.

559
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:21,959
Speaker 2: McCurry is one of the best in the nation, and

560
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:25,560
Speaker 2: South Carolina said Efitt, We're not gonna even screw with

561
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 2: this guy. We're going elsewhere, and it worked for him.

562
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 2: Alabama and Auburn are both ranked top thirteen in first

563
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:34,800
Speaker 2: quarter point differential. These two teams love to get points

564
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:38,840
Speaker 2: on the board fast. Harson will be completely out coached

565
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 2: in this game. I'm staying away from the very inflated

566
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 2: point spread, but the first half over and the first

567
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 2: quarter over make complete sense to me. These two teams

568
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 2: will script it up. That script will happen, points will

569
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 2: be on the board, and then after that Harson won't

570
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:56,360
Speaker 2: adjustin Alabama will run away with it. But there will

571
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 2: be points and there will be points early.

572
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 1: Odd thing to also keep in mind is Auburn will

573
00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:08,360
Speaker 1: be without It's a excellent kicker, he's out for the year,

574
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 1: Carlson and this sophomore Ben Patton. I think he missed

575
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 1: like a twenty six yarder last week. So you're playing Alabama,

576
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 1: you don't have your kicker, You're probably gonna see some

577
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 1: very aggressive play calling on fourth down.

578
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 2: Great field position, yep, field, I agree.

579
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:33,560
Speaker 1: Seem very confident there, so I love the enthusiasm. Let's

580
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:36,720
Speaker 1: move on to the PAC twelve Head out West for

581
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 1: the Civil War between Oregon State and Oregon. Oregon is

582
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 1: his seven point favorite over under sixty one, one hundred

583
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:48,640
Speaker 1: and twenty fifth Civil War. Oregon leads sixty six to

584
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 1: forty eight, ten ties. This is first played in eighteen

585
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 1: ninety four. The winner gets the Platypus Trophy because the

586
00:30:56,400 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 1: platypus has beaver qualities and duck. I think it's the

587
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 1: bill and then the tail. It was gone. I was stolen.

588
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 1: Someone stole the Platypus trophy and it was gone missing

589
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 1: for forty years. I was reading about this trophy today

590
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 1: and then it ended up somehow it ended up in

591
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 1: a high school as the swim trophy for like when

592
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 1: they want to meet. And then someone was like, wait,

593
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:22,760
Speaker 1: I think this is the Platypus trophy for Oregon Oregon State,

594
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 1: and they got it back. Anyway, that's your random fact

595
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 1: that so yeah, they're playing for a chance to go

596
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:32,040
Speaker 1: to the back twelve title. Oregon wins, they're in. They

597
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:34,080
Speaker 1: get to play Utah again. Hopefully it goes a little

598
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 1: better this time. If Oregon State wins there, maybe in

599
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 1: Oregon State needs to win and then have Washington win.

600
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:46,160
Speaker 1: Because the Oregon State wins and Washington State beats Washington,

601
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 1: then Washington State wins a three way tiebreaker, and then

602
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 1: it's Washington State in the back twelve title. What a joke.

603
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 1: I think the basic handicap starts when you handicap an

604
00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 1: Oregon State game. You just say, can the other team

605
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:00,840
Speaker 1: stop the run? That's where you have to start with it.

606
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 1: Oregon's had trouble in that department. On the other side

607
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:08,480
Speaker 1: of the ball, Oregon State's defense, it's it's a tough

608
00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 1: unit to figure out. They sometimes they look great and

609
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 1: other times they look iffy. Are they gonna be able

610
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 1: to slow organize? Does Oregon Oregon? I don't think there's

611
00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:20,720
Speaker 1: a motivation question here, trying to beat your rival who

612
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:22,479
Speaker 1: beat you last year, trying to go to the back

613
00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 1: twelve title. But are they a little flat for after

614
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 1: last week they had college twelve plauffs. I don't think

615
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 1: so I don't think there's any motivation questions here. So

616
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 1: this comes down to the matchup on the field. What

617
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 1: do you see here?

618
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you're right. You have to you have

619
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 2: to handicap who can stop the run here? A must

620
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:40,560
Speaker 2: win for the Ducks, a must win for Oregon State

621
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:42,880
Speaker 2: to have any shot whatsoever. This is a game I

622
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 2: power rate at seven. This is a game that I

623
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 2: have the total set right on where it is in

624
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 2: the market. So there's not this yeah, there's there's just

625
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:52,160
Speaker 2: not this instant take where it's like, oh well this

626
00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 2: is inflated or overvalued. Before you go in look at

627
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 2: the numbers, you realize that crystal Ball doesn't cover at home.

628
00:32:57,840 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 2: I mean I think I've talked about this before, like

629
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:03,239
Speaker 2: when they big spreads in Austin, he doesn't cover. So

630
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 2: to back that up, they've covered once this year at home,

631
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 2: and since he became the head coach of Oregon, he

632
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 2: is seven to fifteen against the spread at home. So

633
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:13,640
Speaker 2: Audston has not been like a friendly place for Oregon

634
00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:17,240
Speaker 2: to be covering spreads whatsoever, especially as a favorite. Oregon

635
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:19,600
Speaker 2: State has won the last two they've covered. The last

636
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:21,320
Speaker 2: two they put up two hundred yards on the ground,

637
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:23,720
Speaker 2: so that offense they put up tw hundred yards in

638
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:26,440
Speaker 2: the ground four of the last five games, so the

639
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 2: offense is clicking on all cylinders from a rushing attack.

640
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 2: We know that Oregon can't stop the run. It was

641
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 2: a big handicap against Utah. So the Beavers are going

642
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:36,240
Speaker 2: to be able to run their third in offensive stuff

643
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 2: rate the ductor seventy fourth. But that stat works both ways.

644
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 2: I mean, the Ducks are first and stuff rate and

645
00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 2: the Beavers are one hundred and seventh and stopping the rush,

646
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:48,240
Speaker 2: especially at the point of attack at the line of scrimmage.

647
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 2: So neither of these defenses are getting into the backfield.

648
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 2: Neither of these defenses are stopping the rush. And when

649
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 2: you dominate on the ground, it could turn into long,

650
00:33:57,360 --> 00:34:00,480
Speaker 2: extended drives, especially for two teams that are tinety six

651
00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:04,760
Speaker 2: and sixty first in pace. So you know, extreme advantages

652
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 2: and offensive finishing drives, extreme advantages and offensive standard down

653
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:12,719
Speaker 2: success rate chains will be moving. Now the question is

654
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 2: will points be scored? And that's where you got to

655
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:17,399
Speaker 2: go in deeper into the finishing drives and find out

656
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 2: are we getting field goals or are we getting touchdowns?

657
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:22,560
Speaker 2: The totals tricked down a little bit from the opener

658
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:24,759
Speaker 2: of sixty two, So it's hard to see either of

659
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:28,160
Speaker 2: these defenses, you know, getting a stop or making the

660
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:31,360
Speaker 2: other offenses play in passing downs. I just getting Anthony

661
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:33,759
Speaker 2: Brown into passing downs is key. Getting Oregon State in

662
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:35,279
Speaker 2: the passing downs is key, But I don't think either

663
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 2: defense is going to be able to be able to

664
00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 2: do that. Both Oregon and Oregon State are top twenty

665
00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 2: five in red zone TD scoring, the Oregon defense is

666
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 2: outside the top one hundred and opponent TD scoring percentage.

667
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:50,960
Speaker 2: What does that mean? Both offenses when they get into

668
00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 2: scoring position will put touchdowns up, not field goals because

669
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:58,080
Speaker 2: Oregon has a long history and its a rivalry game

670
00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:00,879
Speaker 2: and they don't cover at home. And I think Organ

671
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:03,440
Speaker 2: States covered this in autin like every time except once

672
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:06,680
Speaker 2: in the last fourteen years. I side with Oregon State.

673
00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:08,799
Speaker 2: And I really love the over, so I haven't played

674
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 2: it yet, Key sixty two. I like the over because

675
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:13,240
Speaker 2: of the TD percentage in the red zones.

676
00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:15,720
Speaker 1: All right, there you have it, and make sure. Obviously

677
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:17,919
Speaker 1: we're gonna write ups for all these games on Action

678
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 1: network dot Com and the Action Network app. Now we

679
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 1: have about I don't know, twenty five more games to

680
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:26,719
Speaker 1: get to before we do. So we got a divity.

681
00:35:26,760 --> 00:35:28,320
Speaker 1: We're gonna go conference by conference, just give you a

682
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:29,880
Speaker 1: quick summary and then go into a game or two

683
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:33,040
Speaker 1: before we do. Let's uh do a little trash man.

684
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:35,359
Speaker 1: Little trash man said was I'm about to take out

685
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 1: the trash and it's ugly. The trash man pick of

686
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 1: the week. I'm the trash man.

687
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 2: Just throw me the trash, your garbage, and you know it,

688
00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 2: totally unreliable, it undependable.

689
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 1: It that's it. You've been told off. How do you

690
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:52,479
Speaker 1: like that? Good? It is ugly? Oh man, I'm gonna

691
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:53,960
Speaker 1: get shipp for putting these plays in the app. I

692
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:55,719
Speaker 1: haven't done it yet. I'm gonna do it. I'm gonna

693
00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:57,359
Speaker 1: see if you talk me off them. If you don't,

694
00:35:57,400 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 1: they'll be going in the app right after we're done here,

695
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:01,239
Speaker 1: and I'll be putting my that's it all right, by

696
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:03,839
Speaker 1: the way. Just so this is a week where it's like, okay,

697
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 1: you have teams that are five have five wins, or

698
00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:08,279
Speaker 1: they're playing for Bowl eligibility. For what it's worth, those

699
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:11,279
Speaker 1: teams are about fifty three percent fifty three fifty four

700
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 1: percent against the spread. One playing teams that don't have

701
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:16,920
Speaker 1: five wins. We have a piece out there on ashonork

702
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:19,040
Speaker 1: dot com. But one of the things that you have

703
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:20,759
Speaker 1: to try to figure out this week, I call it

704
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 1: corpse week. Welcome to the Morgue. Which teams are dead? Right?

705
00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:26,040
Speaker 1: So I look at a team like USC, I think

706
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:28,920
Speaker 1: they're dead. I look at a team like Stanford, I

707
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:31,360
Speaker 1: think they're dead. Like USC, they have five wins. Do

708
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:34,880
Speaker 1: they really care about going to a bowl? I mean no, Stanford,

709
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:36,879
Speaker 1: to me, I mean they're not. They not playing for both.

710
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 1: Last week they played their rival Cow and they lost

711
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 1: by forty. They had the key back too, and they

712
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:45,279
Speaker 1: go up six hundred yards at maybe seven hundred. They

713
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:47,240
Speaker 1: have ten yards per rush and ten yards per pass.

714
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:49,840
Speaker 1: The Cow dead team. I don't want any part of

715
00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 1: them because sturd day and no matter what I see

716
00:36:51,640 --> 00:36:54,680
Speaker 1: value wise. But a lot of times these kids will

717
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 1: play even though they looked like a dead team. They

718
00:36:58,080 --> 00:36:59,560
Speaker 1: will show up for the last game of the year

719
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 1: game blah blah blah. There's but you have to look

720
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 1: at these I think an individual basis, Here's two. This

721
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:08,719
Speaker 1: is I can't believe about to say these. Luckily it's

722
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:11,480
Speaker 1: not Maryland, so I can't wait to hear this. Let's

723
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:13,120
Speaker 1: get it out of the way, all right. The first

724
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:15,600
Speaker 1: is Duke plus twenty one and a half. Oh my god,

725
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:19,479
Speaker 1: Miami's gonna score. Van Dyke's been on fire. Duke can't

726
00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 1: defend anything. They can't stop a nosebleed. I mean they

727
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 1: were giving I think they're giving up in eighteen yards

728
00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:28,399
Speaker 1: per completion and they can't tackle. I think it looks

729
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:31,920
Speaker 1: like their defense is quit. But Holmberg is back at quarterback.

730
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:34,400
Speaker 1: They can move the ball. They've just been getting unlucky.

731
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:38,719
Speaker 1: This number is also outrageous, and I'm pretty sure that

732
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:43,120
Speaker 1: David Cutcliffe is retiring. He's going to announce it before

733
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:46,479
Speaker 1: this game. That's the rumor. And if that's the case,

734
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:48,080
Speaker 1: I'm sure that Duke is going to want to come

735
00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:51,799
Speaker 1: out here and play for, you know, their legendary coach

736
00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 1: who's going out on a pretty sad note. Over twenty one.

737
00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 1: There's value in Duke. I've swore them off, I haven't

738
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:00,839
Speaker 1: bet them. Luckily them Ben caught, but this is thne

739
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 1: that should have covered against Pitt. Yeah, they put up

740
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:05,360
Speaker 1: thirty against Pitt. The only reason they didn't cover is

741
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:07,400
Speaker 1: because Holmberg got hurt and their backups are terrible. They

742
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 1: only have like one hundred yards in the second half

743
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:11,720
Speaker 1: and then it ended up covering. But the Miami defense

744
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:14,520
Speaker 1: is terrible. Miami will make mistakes. I think I'm gonna

745
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:18,000
Speaker 1: be on Duke it over twenty one and the second corpse,

746
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:22,960
Speaker 1: which is even uglier. We just mentioned Miami. This team's

747
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 1: last FBS win came in twenty nineteen against Miami. Florida International.

748
00:38:28,280 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 1: Florida International has been getting drilled every week. They've had

749
00:38:33,600 --> 00:38:36,520
Speaker 1: a couple of guys sit out last week, including their

750
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 1: best running back, Price, who's going to the Senior Bowl.

751
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna be playing this week. They

752
00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 1: haven't even been closed in games. Borton Schlager, I think,

753
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:47,680
Speaker 1: is still their quarterback there. They're catching ten and a

754
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:51,080
Speaker 1: half at Southern Mess. Southern Miss is running the wildcat

755
00:38:51,160 --> 00:38:56,920
Speaker 1: right now. And I think that these players love Butcher Davis.

756
00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 1: You know, one of their best players, Dames, their safety.

757
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 1: He's going to go to the Senior Bowl, might plant

758
00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 1: the next level. He came out and he's like, I

759
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:05,839
Speaker 1: just love I love him for staying with us, even

760
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:08,600
Speaker 1: though he's wearing a Navy shirt on the sideline. Uh,

761
00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:10,880
Speaker 1: this number is just too high. Something just wants to

762
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 1: slow the game to a crawl. I think Florida National

763
00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:17,120
Speaker 1: is actually going to show up. So yeah, I'm betting

764
00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:20,920
Speaker 1: Florida International and Duke and but by the way, I

765
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:22,759
Speaker 1: bet to say if you think that teams are oh

766
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:26,080
Speaker 1: they're dead. This team's dead. Since nineteen eighty, teams that

767
00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 1: have lost three straight twenty plus point games heading into

768
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:33,240
Speaker 1: the last week are thirty nine and thirty three against

769
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 1: the spread. It's fifty five percent. Teams then under a

770
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:40,720
Speaker 1: twenty five percent win percentage against teams with a seventy

771
00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:44,320
Speaker 1: five percent or greater win percentage forty thirty three against

772
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 1: the spread, forty thirty three against the spread, about fifty

773
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:49,400
Speaker 1: five fifty six percent. So you know, a lot of

774
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:52,239
Speaker 1: times these corpses, you get a ton of value in

775
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:54,439
Speaker 1: these games, like they're just because everyone's like, I don't

776
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 1: want to bet these teams, but trying to read the

777
00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:59,640
Speaker 1: tea lease here, Duke and FIU, any thoughts or any

778
00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:00,759
Speaker 1: other track shou want to take out.

779
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:03,879
Speaker 2: I think my problem with the Duke theory is that

780
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 2: Manny Diaz needs that win just as bad and Van

781
00:40:07,080 --> 00:40:10,400
Speaker 2: Dyke has been money. You know, even when Holmberg was playing,

782
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:12,680
Speaker 2: they weren't getting any points up on the board. So

783
00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 2: I agree that the players do love Cutcliff and that

784
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:18,520
Speaker 2: this is you know, we would have to check with

785
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:21,200
Speaker 2: our sources here to see if he is retiring here.

786
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:23,360
Speaker 2: But I think the one fly in that ointment is

787
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:26,680
Speaker 2: the fact that you know, Manny Diaz is potentially on

788
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 2: the outs with an interim ay D. So you know,

789
00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:31,440
Speaker 2: that's one thing that I would I would pay attention to.

790
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:34,279
Speaker 2: But I'm not with you in Florid International because I

791
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:36,480
Speaker 2: like Southern Miss that much. Now I understand there's a

792
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 2: collection of like three running backs around Frank Gore that

793
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:42,560
Speaker 2: are running the wildcat and they have there Essentially, if

794
00:40:42,600 --> 00:40:44,480
Speaker 2: you are a wide receiver or a running back on

795
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 2: the Southern Miss roster, you're taking a snap the offense.

796
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:53,560
Speaker 2: You know, hullball has been completely morphed into. I just

797
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:56,440
Speaker 2: need a warm body that can take a snap and

798
00:40:56,520 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 2: shotgun because that's all that they're doing. And when I

799
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:02,240
Speaker 2: when I look at that, I look at Florida National's

800
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 2: ranks on defense, you know, they're bottom five and everything.

801
00:41:07,120 --> 00:41:09,799
Speaker 2: Now they are eighteenth and tackling, okay, and that's what

802
00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:12,040
Speaker 2: you have to do against a group of wide receivers

803
00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:15,280
Speaker 2: and running backs that are essentially running wildcat and reverse

804
00:41:15,480 --> 00:41:17,279
Speaker 2: you know, jet sweeps and all this other shit that

805
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:20,960
Speaker 2: Southern Miss is doing. But Southern Miss is playing extremely hard.

806
00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:23,520
Speaker 2: If Florida International was playing anybody else that wasn't making

807
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:25,680
Speaker 2: a ball, that would be fine. But Southern Miss is

808
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 2: playing extremely hard and took UTSA to the brink. Now

809
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:31,719
Speaker 2: now that I'm actually on your side and believe that

810
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:35,200
Speaker 2: UTSA may be a little fraudish, but that doesn't dismiss

811
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:37,759
Speaker 2: the fact that Southern Miss is trying really hard. I

812
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:40,520
Speaker 2: think that brings me to my last thing about trash teams.

813
00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:44,400
Speaker 2: I'm not fading first year coaches. I'm not fading teams

814
00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:47,880
Speaker 2: that have first year coaches that are still trying their hardest.

815
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:50,759
Speaker 1: Monroe, Baby, I'm betting Lo Monroe against Louisiana.

816
00:41:50,880 --> 00:41:52,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, not just Lo Monroe. But it's like you see

817
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:55,840
Speaker 2: Arizona cover four straight before they finally got their eventual

818
00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:59,400
Speaker 2: first win. It's programs like that, Programs that are in

819
00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:02,480
Speaker 2: first year of coaches and they're still trying to get

820
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:05,719
Speaker 2: some sort of minimal achievement to take it into next year.

821
00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:08,319
Speaker 2: That's what I would not want to fade. Lame duck

822
00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:11,319
Speaker 2: situations where there's no bowl and a coach maybe out

823
00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:14,080
Speaker 2: the door. Yeah yeah, you can fire away on that

824
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 2: all day.

825
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:18,840
Speaker 1: All right, let's get into the rundown. We'll go through

826
00:42:19,480 --> 00:42:21,919
Speaker 1: every conference and then hit a game or Two's start

827
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:25,799
Speaker 1: in the ACC. There's four games. There's three games that matter.

828
00:42:26,360 --> 00:42:29,160
Speaker 1: Lake Forest going to Boston College. Swake Forest is a

829
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 1: four and a half point favorite at pasta Coage. If

830
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:34,480
Speaker 1: they win, they win the Atlantic and they go play pitt.

831
00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:39,280
Speaker 1: If they lose, NC State beats North Carolina, then wake

832
00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:43,800
Speaker 1: North Carolina State and Clemson would be tied at six

833
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:47,319
Speaker 1: and two in the conference. I said three games matter,

834
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:50,120
Speaker 1: only two Clemson's playing an out of conference game. NC

835
00:42:50,239 --> 00:42:54,080
Speaker 1: State would then win that tiebreaker. Clemson, however, can get

836
00:42:54,080 --> 00:43:00,920
Speaker 1: in if NC State loses and Wake Forest loses at

837
00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:06,279
Speaker 1: BC and if you want to go ahead and parlay them,

838
00:43:06,600 --> 00:43:10,200
Speaker 1: that's probably what's gonna end up happening, because the world

839
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:13,200
Speaker 1: is evil and Clemson's gonna end up getting in two

840
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:14,719
Speaker 1: of the Gainsworth metched. I don't know if you like

841
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:17,560
Speaker 1: South Carolina or not. It's crazy that Sarah Clemson and

842
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:19,319
Speaker 1: that offense can lay eleven and a half to me.

843
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:22,560
Speaker 1: But I'm not sure if I want to buy South Gunner.

844
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:25,000
Speaker 1: He's been playing a little better if late Pitt Syracuse,

845
00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:27,600
Speaker 1: Pitt is playing for nothing. They're already in the AC Championship.

846
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:31,239
Speaker 1: They're playing thirteen thirteen and a half here Syracuse. I

847
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:33,960
Speaker 1: think there are five wins. They should be motivated here.

848
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:36,640
Speaker 1: You can't run on Pitt and that's all Syracuse can do.

849
00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:38,759
Speaker 1: And you have that expose the passing place on the

850
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:42,279
Speaker 1: outside against Pitt's aggressive corners. Syracuse can't do that, So

851
00:43:42,320 --> 00:43:43,920
Speaker 1: I don't see how they really move the ball. And

852
00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:46,880
Speaker 1: then Pitt's playing for nothing. I know there's gonna be

853
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:49,640
Speaker 1: pace in this game, but I like kind of like

854
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:51,040
Speaker 1: the under. And by the way, some of these times

855
00:43:51,080 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 1: when these teams are playing for nothing, like Pitt, like

856
00:43:53,840 --> 00:43:57,440
Speaker 1: they could sit pick it right, like they could easily

857
00:43:57,440 --> 00:44:00,600
Speaker 1: sit him here, they're playing for absolutely nothing. You saw

858
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:03,759
Speaker 1: that today with NIU. They sat Rocky Lombardi. So I

859
00:44:03,800 --> 00:44:05,959
Speaker 1: don't know. I kind of like the under there. Wait

860
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:07,919
Speaker 1: as far as U n C NC State, I make

861
00:44:08,000 --> 00:44:10,320
Speaker 1: that way lower than it has been in NC States.

862
00:44:10,320 --> 00:44:13,160
Speaker 1: I just think their defense is a bit overrated because

863
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:15,359
Speaker 1: of the schedule of offenses, and they played a number

864
00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:18,279
Speaker 1: of backup quarterbacks that they played FSU with Milton, they

865
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:21,400
Speaker 1: played BC with Grossel. I mean, the list goes on

866
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:23,480
Speaker 1: and on, and they've lost a number of different starters.

867
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:26,440
Speaker 1: I think UNC this is UNC super Bowl now. And

868
00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:29,959
Speaker 1: NC State's season, I mean have they had a really

869
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:32,600
Speaker 1: disappointing season. So I think you'll get up to Sam

870
00:44:32,600 --> 00:44:35,799
Speaker 1: hal injury status. I think he's one hundred percent healthy.

871
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:37,279
Speaker 1: That's something to keep an eye on. But I think

872
00:44:37,280 --> 00:44:39,759
Speaker 1: there's value with theitarios. And then my favorite bet of

873
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:42,600
Speaker 1: all of them is BC catching four and a half

874
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 1: or five against wake I make this closer to one.

875
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:48,080
Speaker 1: I think it's a really good matchup for BC. We've

876
00:44:48,120 --> 00:44:51,880
Speaker 1: seen that wake Farts defense stinks. We saw Army like

877
00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:55,000
Speaker 1: almost put up sixty through the air throwing the ball

878
00:44:55,040 --> 00:44:58,720
Speaker 1: against them. Anyone, everyone is going to score against wake Forest.

879
00:44:58,719 --> 00:45:00,799
Speaker 1: We talked with the about this run past whatever you

880
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:03,680
Speaker 1: want to do. They made Clemson's offense look competent. That's

881
00:45:03,719 --> 00:45:08,200
Speaker 1: hard to do. Ukon even slow down Clemson's offense. So BC, hey,

882
00:45:08,239 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 1: you want to run the ball, they've been running a

883
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:12,839
Speaker 1: lot lately. Sure, go ahead, run it right down Wake's throat.

884
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:15,560
Speaker 1: You're gonna score. You want to throw with Jerkovic, Sure fine,

885
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:19,160
Speaker 1: it explosive plays. Now. The Wake Forest offense with Sam

886
00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:22,319
Speaker 1: Hartman is also gonna score a lot. Hard to stop them.

887
00:45:22,360 --> 00:45:25,520
Speaker 1: They're gonna get their points. But BC's defense. I like

888
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:27,400
Speaker 1: their Their pass defense is better than the run events.

889
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:30,400
Speaker 1: That's important here, and the Wake run defense is really

890
00:45:30,600 --> 00:45:32,960
Speaker 1: poor and PC likes to run it a lot. It

891
00:45:32,960 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 1: sets up everything else. BC plays slow. They're gonna kind

892
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:37,520
Speaker 1: of slow the skin. Now, this is field goal game

893
00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:39,640
Speaker 1: written all over. That's pretty much all Wake seems to

894
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:42,399
Speaker 1: play all year. I think BC actually gets this win

895
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:45,799
Speaker 1: over Wake and upsets them, and the world sucks and

896
00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:50,080
Speaker 1: Clemson's gonna end up somehow UNC beats and I'm gonna

897
00:45:50,080 --> 00:45:52,120
Speaker 1: have to watch Dabo smirk. But at least they'll be

898
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:56,240
Speaker 1: on u NC and BC when it happens. Any thoughts

899
00:45:56,239 --> 00:45:57,440
Speaker 1: on any of these ACC games?

900
00:45:57,680 --> 00:46:00,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, First off, I'd like to address the stories floating

901
00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:03,200
Speaker 2: around the gambling world right now about a guy that

902
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:06,000
Speaker 2: has one hundred and fifty to one for Wake to

903
00:46:06,040 --> 00:46:08,600
Speaker 2: win the ACC. A one hundred and twenty to one

904
00:46:08,600 --> 00:46:10,200
Speaker 2: and ninety to one and an eighty to one in

905
00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:13,880
Speaker 2: multiple shops in Las Vegas. He won't be named right now,

906
00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:16,640
Speaker 2: but he is a close friend of mine and Sucky

907
00:46:16,640 --> 00:46:19,400
Speaker 2: knows who he is personally, and I was allowed to

908
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:21,799
Speaker 2: buy a piece of some of that. So it's going

909
00:46:21,880 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 2: to be a big wake for us weekend and individually

910
00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:28,160
Speaker 2: handicapping each one of these games. The Sam Howse situation,

911
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:31,560
Speaker 2: I've been closely monitoring. I took an under on open

912
00:46:32,640 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 2: you know, Sam Howe was in a sling against Wawford.

913
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:36,920
Speaker 2: That was a play that I was able to get in.

914
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 2: They didn't even come close to covering that game. Phil

915
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:44,560
Speaker 2: Longo came to his press conference on Tuesday and said

916
00:46:44,560 --> 00:46:48,400
Speaker 2: that how was active in practice on Tuesday. But considering

917
00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:50,920
Speaker 2: you know that Howe's graduating in just a few weeks

918
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:52,720
Speaker 2: and how high he's going to go in the NFL,

919
00:46:53,440 --> 00:46:55,920
Speaker 2: it's really good as long as words. It's really good

920
00:46:55,920 --> 00:46:58,080
Speaker 2: that we got Jacolby, Chris Well and Drake may And

921
00:46:58,120 --> 00:46:59,799
Speaker 2: at quarterbacks. So I got to see some reps out

922
00:46:59,840 --> 00:47:01,920
Speaker 2: of this, and I look forward to seeing more tape

923
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:05,600
Speaker 2: on those two quarterbacks. I think there's coaches speak going

924
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:08,520
Speaker 2: on that says Howell is practicing this week. I don't

925
00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:11,040
Speaker 2: think he's going to play. That's just opinion, that's not

926
00:47:11,280 --> 00:47:14,640
Speaker 2: something that's been stated. But he is a practice. They

927
00:47:14,640 --> 00:47:17,200
Speaker 2: said he was held out for pre cautionary reasons. But

928
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:20,120
Speaker 2: if Sam Howe's got an agent, or if he's got

929
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:22,280
Speaker 2: people whispering in his ear, there's no way he's playing

930
00:47:22,280 --> 00:47:24,800
Speaker 2: this game. And UNC has made it very clear that

931
00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:27,120
Speaker 2: they're interested in seeing how good Chris Well and May

932
00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:28,959
Speaker 2: are and this is a good game against a great

933
00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:31,520
Speaker 2: NC State defense to try that out. It's a three

934
00:47:31,520 --> 00:47:33,760
Speaker 2: three five defense with defensive coordinator Tony.

935
00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:36,759
Speaker 1: Games, gonna get to face another backup quarterback.

936
00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:38,680
Speaker 2: For I think so, I think so. I think what

937
00:47:38,719 --> 00:47:41,000
Speaker 2: else is important? If Sam Howe does play this game,

938
00:47:41,040 --> 00:47:43,279
Speaker 2: it's not going to help his NFL draft stock. NC

939
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:46,279
Speaker 2: State is eighth in the nation in PBUs. I mean,

940
00:47:46,640 --> 00:47:49,239
Speaker 2: it's not an easy game. This is not a cupcake

941
00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:51,279
Speaker 2: for Sam how to go out there and fill up

942
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:53,440
Speaker 2: a highlight reel. So I think we do get the

943
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:56,560
Speaker 2: sophomore in the freshman quarterback in there and we'll see

944
00:47:56,560 --> 00:47:58,480
Speaker 2: what happens. But whether Sam Howe plays or not, I

945
00:47:58,480 --> 00:48:01,600
Speaker 2: think it's two ground attacks, both Rincy State and for UNC.

946
00:48:02,120 --> 00:48:03,840
Speaker 2: Believe it or not, they're both pretty good in the

947
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:06,880
Speaker 2: red zone defensively generating field goals and not touchdown. So

948
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:09,200
Speaker 2: I like the under on that game. Clemson minus eleven

949
00:48:09,280 --> 00:48:13,120
Speaker 2: is the play UH rejected right now for the cheese

950
00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:15,560
Speaker 2: At Bowl. If you don't know anything about the ACC

951
00:48:15,600 --> 00:48:17,239
Speaker 2: and how they place their bowl teams, there's like a

952
00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:20,200
Speaker 2: tier one that you automatically get placed into, and then

953
00:48:20,200 --> 00:48:23,680
Speaker 2: there's this litany of ship bowls, right and and you

954
00:48:23,719 --> 00:48:26,120
Speaker 2: don't want to be in the ship bowls. And for

955
00:48:26,280 --> 00:48:28,200
Speaker 2: Clemson to avoid the ship Bowls, they're going to have

956
00:48:28,200 --> 00:48:29,400
Speaker 2: to win this game, and they're gonna have to win

957
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:33,040
Speaker 2: it with style. UH. They're going to take massive advantage

958
00:48:33,520 --> 00:48:37,320
Speaker 2: of South Carolina, a team that should be on hangover

959
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:40,640
Speaker 2: because they just made bowl season. They were faced as

960
00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:43,160
Speaker 2: a seven and a half point underdog against Auburn, had

961
00:48:43,200 --> 00:48:45,520
Speaker 2: to win that or against Clemson to make bowl season.

962
00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 2: They made it. They're partying hard beamers in a bowl.

963
00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:51,880
Speaker 2: They're not going to show up for this game. So Clemson,

964
00:48:52,000 --> 00:48:55,279
Speaker 2: come on, I don't like it, I don't want it,

965
00:48:55,680 --> 00:48:57,799
Speaker 2: But what South Carolina do? They're going to line up

966
00:48:57,800 --> 00:49:00,400
Speaker 2: and compete in this game after that? What was their

967
00:49:00,400 --> 00:49:02,280
Speaker 2: win total? What was their win total?

968
00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:05,359
Speaker 1: You're just bitter. You're bitter about their win total. Come

969
00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:08,839
Speaker 1: get them Columbia, all right, Moving on to the AAC.

970
00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:15,960
Speaker 1: It's since he will head to East Carolina. Says he's

971
00:49:15,960 --> 00:49:18,880
Speaker 1: playing for home field advantage in the title and also

972
00:49:18,920 --> 00:49:22,200
Speaker 1: an outside shot at the College Football Playoff. Houston meanwhile,

973
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:24,960
Speaker 1: who's already clinched the spot, they will host it if

974
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:27,920
Speaker 1: since he loses, they travel to Yukon. Talk about the

975
00:49:28,719 --> 00:49:32,640
Speaker 1: oddest spot of the year. They go to Yukon and

976
00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:34,759
Speaker 1: they're playing for nothing. I don't know how they hell

977
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:37,120
Speaker 1: you cap that game. I don't know if Augus is

978
00:49:37,120 --> 00:49:41,399
Speaker 1: gonna sit out everyone. I don't know. But Cincinnati going

979
00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 1: to East Carolina fourteen fourteen and a half point favorites.

980
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:48,040
Speaker 1: What do you see here, Well, Holt Naylor's in November.

981
00:49:48,080 --> 00:49:48,960
Speaker 1: It's still November.

982
00:49:49,680 --> 00:49:52,680
Speaker 2: Holt Naylor's November's. I love them. I mean, I project

983
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:55,160
Speaker 2: Cincinnati in fourteen half, but they they need as many

984
00:49:55,200 --> 00:49:58,400
Speaker 2: style points as possible. Placed fourth in the College Football

985
00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:01,400
Speaker 2: Playoff rankings, and there's about to be massive games in

986
00:50:01,440 --> 00:50:05,040
Speaker 2: the landscape from Bedlam to Ohio State and Michigan. Cincinnati

987
00:50:05,080 --> 00:50:07,400
Speaker 2: is going to have to do something to keep that

988
00:50:07,520 --> 00:50:11,120
Speaker 2: focus on them. I love my Twitter mentions today about

989
00:50:11,360 --> 00:50:13,640
Speaker 2: strength of record, strength of schedule, and we got to

990
00:50:13,640 --> 00:50:17,560
Speaker 2: get Cincinnati in and our own sources. Brettman Murphy comes

991
00:50:17,600 --> 00:50:20,240
Speaker 2: in with just a pile driver on how Oklahoma States

992
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:25,920
Speaker 2: dominated their competition. But listen, this is a bad combination

993
00:50:26,040 --> 00:50:29,360
Speaker 2: for East Carolina. They struggle in rushing the ball and

994
00:50:29,440 --> 00:50:32,600
Speaker 2: protecting the quarterback. They both they ranked bottom twenty in

995
00:50:32,800 --> 00:50:35,680
Speaker 2: FBS in both of those categories, and that's not good

996
00:50:35,680 --> 00:50:39,319
Speaker 2: against Cincinnati. They're defensively fourth and pass rush, they're second

997
00:50:39,360 --> 00:50:41,920
Speaker 2: in pass coverage. This is another game once again where

998
00:50:41,960 --> 00:50:45,839
Speaker 2: there's major discrepancies in finishing drives, all in favor of Cincinnati.

999
00:50:46,160 --> 00:50:48,920
Speaker 2: This is a complete Bearcats play. This is a complete

1000
00:50:48,920 --> 00:50:52,200
Speaker 2: team total over. East Carolina does not have any matchup

1001
00:50:52,200 --> 00:50:55,319
Speaker 2: discrepancies that they can take advantage of. As far as

1002
00:50:55,360 --> 00:50:57,520
Speaker 2: Houston yukon, I was shocked to you even put it

1003
00:50:57,520 --> 00:50:58,840
Speaker 2: in the script. I was like, well, what can I

1004
00:50:58,880 --> 00:51:02,200
Speaker 2: say about this? Well, the total is steaming down? Why

1005
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:04,719
Speaker 2: is the total steaming down? Because Houston doesn't need to

1006
00:51:04,760 --> 00:51:07,600
Speaker 2: play this game. They essentially just do they even need

1007
00:51:07,640 --> 00:51:09,560
Speaker 2: to win. They don't even need to win this game.

1008
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:12,960
Speaker 2: I can't understand how they have a great defense. I mean,

1009
00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:15,320
Speaker 2: they have a fan fabulous defense, Houston's number one and

1010
00:51:15,360 --> 00:51:18,400
Speaker 2: pass rush their twelve in defensive havoc. So what do

1011
00:51:18,400 --> 00:51:20,640
Speaker 2: they need to do? Score a touchdown and then set everybody.

1012
00:51:20,840 --> 00:51:23,000
Speaker 2: I can't even believe in making the flight that this

1013
00:51:23,040 --> 00:51:26,200
Speaker 2: will be the most conservative game. I would be shocked

1014
00:51:26,440 --> 00:51:29,799
Speaker 2: if Houston came out guns blazing, I'd be shocked. So

1015
00:51:30,040 --> 00:51:31,920
Speaker 2: under I would grab it because I just think it's

1016
00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:32,759
Speaker 2: gonna keep going down.

1017
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:34,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, keep I mean, look at what NIU did today.

1018
00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:37,520
Speaker 1: They already at a place in the conference championship. They

1019
00:51:37,600 --> 00:51:41,120
Speaker 1: ran thirty seven plays. That's it today, thirty.

1020
00:51:40,760 --> 00:51:44,960
Speaker 2: Seven And that's what Ramas Hammock telling everybody that I

1021
00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:47,719
Speaker 2: read all weekend. Thank you for letting me spend my

1022
00:51:47,920 --> 00:51:51,759
Speaker 2: damn weekend, Thomas Hammock, Northern Illinois, for me reading that

1023
00:51:51,920 --> 00:51:54,520
Speaker 2: you made all players come in and practice on Friday night,

1024
00:51:54,560 --> 00:51:57,640
Speaker 2: Saturday and Sunday because your goal for this season was

1025
00:51:57,680 --> 00:51:59,480
Speaker 2: to beat every team that beat you last year, and

1026
00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:02,839
Speaker 2: that included Western Michigan, and you know showed tonight. I'm

1027
00:52:02,840 --> 00:52:04,560
Speaker 2: tired of listening to these coaches are liars.

1028
00:52:04,880 --> 00:52:06,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean they basically just came in and ran

1029
00:52:06,680 --> 00:52:10,239
Speaker 1: half back dive for an entire game. That's it. So

1030
00:52:10,280 --> 00:52:12,160
Speaker 1: but keep that in mind. Some teams we'll do that

1031
00:52:12,239 --> 00:52:14,000
Speaker 1: already clinched, and we'll go through them all here.

1032
00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:14,600
Speaker 2: All right.

1033
00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:19,880
Speaker 1: You also have Memphis is five wins. They'll play Tulane.

1034
00:52:19,960 --> 00:52:23,480
Speaker 1: Memphis needs to win to get the six Tulsa plays SMU.

1035
00:52:23,520 --> 00:52:26,560
Speaker 1: Tulsa needs to win to get the Bowl eligibility. The

1036
00:52:26,600 --> 00:52:28,279
Speaker 1: rest of the games are junk. I don't know if

1037
00:52:28,320 --> 00:52:31,000
Speaker 1: I can trust Temple against Navy, even if against the

1038
00:52:31,040 --> 00:52:33,279
Speaker 1: two touchdowns, Temple looks like a corpse to me.

1039
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:37,799
Speaker 2: So Tulane, they did have one goal that was to

1040
00:52:37,840 --> 00:52:39,080
Speaker 2: win their first FBS game.

1041
00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:41,640
Speaker 1: The miss an extra point.

1042
00:52:42,040 --> 00:52:44,399
Speaker 2: Their goal was to win an FBS game because their

1043
00:52:44,400 --> 00:52:47,160
Speaker 2: only win of the season was against an FCS school,

1044
00:52:47,600 --> 00:52:50,399
Speaker 2: so they achieved that. I expect them to be checked out,

1045
00:52:50,440 --> 00:52:53,719
Speaker 2: completely checked out. Memphis, on the other hand, this two

1046
00:52:53,800 --> 00:52:57,400
Speaker 2: lane defense cannot defend the pass whatsoever. Hennagan for Memphis,

1047
00:52:57,480 --> 00:53:00,360
Speaker 2: he's back on again throwing the ball. Just find the rushman.

1048
00:53:00,880 --> 00:53:02,200
Speaker 2: I expect Memphis to role here.

1049
00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:04,719
Speaker 1: Memphis is a weird team for me to figure out.

1050
00:53:04,840 --> 00:53:06,319
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the Big Ten. We

1051
00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:11,400
Speaker 1: already talked about Ohio State and Michigan. Simple for that

1052
00:53:11,440 --> 00:53:15,440
Speaker 1: division winner goes to the Big Ten Championship. Other division

1053
00:53:15,480 --> 00:53:19,280
Speaker 1: in the Big Ten in the West is not as simple.

1054
00:53:19,960 --> 00:53:24,600
Speaker 1: What is simple as if Wisconsin beats Minnesota the Paul

1055
00:53:24,600 --> 00:53:27,160
Speaker 1: Bunyan's Acts. By the way, it's the most played series

1056
00:53:27,640 --> 00:53:30,920
Speaker 1: of any FBS series. I think they've played one hundred

1057
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:33,040
Speaker 1: and thirty times. This is like one hundred and thirty

1058
00:53:33,040 --> 00:53:37,680
Speaker 1: first meeting for the Paul Bunyan Acts. So if Wisconsin

1059
00:53:37,719 --> 00:53:41,319
Speaker 1: beats Minnesota, they're seven point road favorites. Talk about a

1060
00:53:41,320 --> 00:53:45,480
Speaker 1: team that's trending up. Then they go to the Big

1061
00:53:45,520 --> 00:53:50,200
Speaker 1: Ten Championship for the winner of Michigan Ohio State. If

1062
00:53:50,840 --> 00:53:57,960
Speaker 1: Minnesota beats Wisconsin then and Nebraska beats Iowa, then and

1063
00:53:58,000 --> 00:54:02,120
Speaker 1: Purdue beats Indiana, they're two touchdownsites. Purdue can't win the division,

1064
00:54:02,120 --> 00:54:03,399
Speaker 1: but if p Due gets in there for the four

1065
00:54:03,719 --> 00:54:07,080
Speaker 1: four way tie, Minnesota wins the four way tie. But

1066
00:54:07,120 --> 00:54:15,680
Speaker 1: if Minnesota beats Wisconsin and Iowa beats Nebraska, then Iowa

1067
00:54:16,040 --> 00:54:18,600
Speaker 1: is going. There's also a scenario where like it. Indiana wins,

1068
00:54:18,600 --> 00:54:22,960
Speaker 1: Wisconsin can still go if they lose, but that's not happening.

1069
00:54:23,400 --> 00:54:26,239
Speaker 1: So it really comes down to, you know, Iowa needs

1070
00:54:26,239 --> 00:54:29,160
Speaker 1: to win and hope that Minnesota wins. Wisconsin just needs

1071
00:54:29,160 --> 00:54:31,480
Speaker 1: to win to get in. One of my favorite bets

1072
00:54:31,480 --> 00:54:33,000
Speaker 1: of the preseason was then the win the division. I'm

1073
00:54:33,000 --> 00:54:37,200
Speaker 1: just letting it go here. Wisconsin has been unbelievable with

1074
00:54:37,239 --> 00:54:39,759
Speaker 1: this kid, Braylen Allen. When they had a when he

1075
00:54:39,800 --> 00:54:41,600
Speaker 1: and Lucy had a time share where they were in

1076
00:54:41,640 --> 00:54:44,040
Speaker 1: the same games against the same defenses. When they were

1077
00:54:44,080 --> 00:54:50,320
Speaker 1: sharing carries, Chudick Chris Mlucy ninety eight carries four hundred

1078
00:54:50,360 --> 00:54:53,480
Speaker 1: and eighty three yards four point nine yards per carry.

1079
00:54:53,960 --> 00:54:59,120
Speaker 1: Alan eighty one carries six hundred and twelve yards seven

1080
00:54:59,160 --> 00:55:02,560
Speaker 1: and a half yards per carry. Alan is averaging three

1081
00:55:03,080 --> 00:55:06,880
Speaker 1: point two yards per carry, more than expected based on

1082
00:55:07,360 --> 00:55:13,399
Speaker 1: the opponent. Rushing day Malucy was negative, negative expectation. He's

1083
00:55:13,400 --> 00:55:14,719
Speaker 1: been dominate. He's the best, he might be the best

1084
00:55:14,760 --> 00:55:18,480
Speaker 1: running back in college football. He's seventeen. The offense is

1085
00:55:18,560 --> 00:55:20,600
Speaker 1: i mean just breaks tackles. The offense. You gotta watch

1086
00:55:20,640 --> 00:55:24,040
Speaker 1: this kid, and I be gave him a one believer

1087
00:55:24,120 --> 00:55:26,840
Speaker 1: at there watching him against Nebraska, and then that opens

1088
00:55:26,920 --> 00:55:29,560
Speaker 1: up the passing game for Martz and he can make

1089
00:55:29,600 --> 00:55:32,719
Speaker 1: some basic throws and it actually looks a little competent.

1090
00:55:33,040 --> 00:55:37,040
Speaker 1: Wisconsint d also elite against the run, and this Minnesota

1091
00:55:37,480 --> 00:55:41,280
Speaker 1: offenses had some stinkers, you know, against Perdue, against Bowling Green.

1092
00:55:41,640 --> 00:55:43,640
Speaker 1: I still don't know how Tanner Morgan threw for fifty

1093
00:55:43,680 --> 00:55:46,879
Speaker 1: yards and two picks on like nine attempts against Bowling Green.

1094
00:55:48,840 --> 00:55:50,600
Speaker 1: But they need to run to set up the pass.

1095
00:55:51,200 --> 00:55:52,920
Speaker 1: You're not gonna run on Wisconsin. They don't need to

1096
00:55:52,920 --> 00:55:55,080
Speaker 1: sell out to stop the run. So I think this

1097
00:55:55,160 --> 00:55:59,719
Speaker 1: is this spell's trouble for Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska. It's tough

1098
00:55:59,719 --> 00:56:02,239
Speaker 1: for me to figure out what we're gonna get from

1099
00:56:02,360 --> 00:56:05,440
Speaker 1: this quarterback. With Adrian Martinez is out, feels like this

1100
00:56:05,520 --> 00:56:07,440
Speaker 1: is just gonna be a low stinker. The thing to

1101
00:56:07,480 --> 00:56:11,080
Speaker 1: note here this is one of the biggest special teams

1102
00:56:11,120 --> 00:56:15,279
Speaker 1: mismatches of the college football season. I will absolutely lead

1103
00:56:15,320 --> 00:56:17,759
Speaker 1: in Nebresa's dead last and everything, like four or five

1104
00:56:17,800 --> 00:56:21,000
Speaker 1: points of spread difference in this game. Penn State at Sparty,

1105
00:56:21,320 --> 00:56:23,359
Speaker 1: going Penn State back to Fade and Sparty, I'll see

1106
00:56:23,360 --> 00:56:26,439
Speaker 1: you on Twitter. Penn State doesn't run the ball. Oh great, cool,

1107
00:56:26,480 --> 00:56:29,960
Speaker 1: all they do is throw great play poverty secondary. We

1108
00:56:30,000 --> 00:56:32,280
Speaker 1: have Penn State. James Franklin decided a ten year contract.

1109
00:56:32,360 --> 00:56:35,040
Speaker 1: I think that'll carry over to the team here and

1110
00:56:35,239 --> 00:56:38,479
Speaker 1: Sparty might be a little deflated after last week and

1111
00:56:39,360 --> 00:56:42,759
Speaker 1: Maryland at Rutgers for Bowl eligibility. No thanks, you can

1112
00:56:42,800 --> 00:56:44,960
Speaker 1: cover that if you want. That's about it for me

1113
00:56:45,000 --> 00:56:46,080
Speaker 1: in the Big ten. What do you got in the

1114
00:56:46,080 --> 00:56:46,439
Speaker 1: Big ten?

1115
00:56:46,719 --> 00:56:49,680
Speaker 2: Well? Yeah, So one of the biggest win total plays

1116
00:56:49,719 --> 00:56:52,640
Speaker 2: from a unit perspective was Maryland over five and a half.

1117
00:56:53,200 --> 00:56:55,480
Speaker 2: I had a feeling this number was going to steam

1118
00:56:55,560 --> 00:56:58,640
Speaker 2: and it is. Well, you can expect a Rutgers play

1119
00:56:58,680 --> 00:57:00,839
Speaker 2: to come in this week to cover up a little

1120
00:57:00,840 --> 00:57:02,600
Speaker 2: bit of all that that we put on the Maryland

1121
00:57:02,880 --> 00:57:05,520
Speaker 2: win total. So that's really the handicapped parent.

1122
00:57:05,640 --> 00:57:07,560
Speaker 1: I just can't defend the pass, so they can defend

1123
00:57:07,600 --> 00:57:09,920
Speaker 1: the run. That's good, But who maryn will fuck it up?

1124
00:57:09,960 --> 00:57:13,360
Speaker 2: Well, Maryland will have six you know, Maryland have six turnovers,

1125
00:57:13,360 --> 00:57:16,000
Speaker 2: and then I'll lose you know, eight hundred dollars I

1126
00:57:16,040 --> 00:57:20,080
Speaker 2: stored away months ago. So Adrian Martinez is worth four points.

1127
00:57:20,200 --> 00:57:22,440
Speaker 2: That's one thing I was like, are you kidding me?

1128
00:57:22,560 --> 00:57:24,880
Speaker 2: Like the market is moving this much for it you

1129
00:57:24,920 --> 00:57:26,240
Speaker 2: and I have never been able to put a number

1130
00:57:26,240 --> 00:57:30,080
Speaker 2: on Adrian Martinez because he giveth and he taketh, And

1131
00:57:30,360 --> 00:57:33,760
Speaker 2: apparently the market reacted by moving the spread four points,

1132
00:57:34,200 --> 00:57:37,160
Speaker 2: So that to me is a no play that leads

1133
00:57:37,200 --> 00:57:40,040
Speaker 2: me with Wisconsin and Minnesota, a game that I actually

1134
00:57:40,080 --> 00:57:44,360
Speaker 2: project for a total of thirty six sitting around in

1135
00:57:44,400 --> 00:57:46,800
Speaker 2: the market right now at thirty nine. And Stuck's right

1136
00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:48,600
Speaker 2: about Braylen Allen. I think we showed up on a

1137
00:57:48,640 --> 00:57:50,640
Speaker 2: BBOC Live show a couple of saturdays ago and I

1138
00:57:50,720 --> 00:57:53,680
Speaker 2: just said, Wisconsin, Braylen Allen, shut the lights off, let's

1139
00:57:53,680 --> 00:57:56,840
Speaker 2: all go. I mean, the kid is that unbelievable. And

1140
00:57:56,920 --> 00:57:58,760
Speaker 2: I think the problem is is when I want to

1141
00:57:58,800 --> 00:58:00,960
Speaker 2: take the under on this, because make it thirty six

1142
00:58:01,000 --> 00:58:04,520
Speaker 2: and the market is at thirty nine. Wisconsin has dominated

1143
00:58:04,560 --> 00:58:06,720
Speaker 2: this series. They won nine of the last ten, but

1144
00:58:06,800 --> 00:58:09,680
Speaker 2: specifically when they go to Minnesota, they have scored at

1145
00:58:09,760 --> 00:58:12,280
Speaker 2: least thirty one points the last three times they've gone.

1146
00:58:12,960 --> 00:58:14,840
Speaker 2: I think Paul Chris likes to beat the shit out

1147
00:58:14,840 --> 00:58:17,680
Speaker 2: of PJ. Fleck. There's just something about those two guys

1148
00:58:17,680 --> 00:58:20,720
Speaker 2: that have different styles, and this is a pretty big

1149
00:58:20,760 --> 00:58:23,520
Speaker 2: game for Wisconsin. I think it'll be all ground based.

1150
00:58:23,680 --> 00:58:25,760
Speaker 2: That defense will show up no matter if there's overlooked

1151
00:58:25,760 --> 00:58:28,040
Speaker 2: to the Big Ten Championship or not. The pace is

1152
00:58:28,080 --> 00:58:29,560
Speaker 2: there one hundred and twenty fourth and one hundred and

1153
00:58:29,560 --> 00:58:32,320
Speaker 2: twenty ninth. That plays a big part of it. But no,

1154
00:58:32,400 --> 00:58:36,920
Speaker 2: Wisconsin's on fire right now. Minnesota defensively, they're not bad.

1155
00:58:36,960 --> 00:58:39,360
Speaker 2: They're top twenty five in rushing success rate, They're twenty

1156
00:58:39,400 --> 00:58:42,760
Speaker 2: eighth in line yards. But this is Braylan Allen. I

1157
00:58:42,840 --> 00:58:46,920
Speaker 2: like Wisconsin to cover. I like Wisconsin's team total over

1158
00:58:47,240 --> 00:58:48,560
Speaker 2: as the best bet in that game.

1159
00:58:49,320 --> 00:58:51,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't mind that at all. By the way,

1160
00:58:51,680 --> 00:58:54,640
Speaker 1: for Baylor fans, Baylor can still get to the Big

1161
00:58:54,680 --> 00:58:57,960
Speaker 1: twelve Championship. I didn't mention that they're gonna need to

1162
00:58:58,000 --> 00:59:01,400
Speaker 1: win and they have a win over Oklahoma, so they

1163
00:59:01,400 --> 00:59:04,439
Speaker 1: need Oklahoma State to beat Oklahoma and then it will

1164
00:59:04,480 --> 00:59:08,400
Speaker 1: be Baylor versus Oklahoma State. They're laying fourteen against Texas Tech.

1165
00:59:08,480 --> 00:59:09,959
Speaker 1: I got nothing there, you got anything there?

1166
00:59:10,360 --> 00:59:13,200
Speaker 2: Nothing there. I think Baylor is going to win this game.

1167
00:59:13,240 --> 00:59:15,760
Speaker 2: And you know, I expected more out of Donovan Smith

1168
00:59:15,760 --> 00:59:18,080
Speaker 2: than Texas Tech but that might be it for them

1169
00:59:18,080 --> 00:59:20,280
Speaker 2: in their season as they transition into a new head coach.

1170
00:59:21,000 --> 00:59:25,520
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the Conference USA, where we will

1171
00:59:25,560 --> 00:59:31,360
Speaker 1: have UTSA ME ME will host the conference championship game.

1172
00:59:31,360 --> 00:59:34,000
Speaker 1: They already know that in the Alamodome they will either

1173
00:59:34,680 --> 00:59:38,960
Speaker 1: host Western Kentucky or Marshall. Westernentucky travels too Marshall. Marshall's

1174
00:59:38,960 --> 00:59:41,680
Speaker 1: at one and a half point favorite. There. There are

1175
00:59:41,800 --> 00:59:44,800
Speaker 1: a couple other games of note here. UTSA so UTSA,

1176
00:59:44,840 --> 00:59:46,160
Speaker 1: they are already clinched. They know they're going to be

1177
00:59:46,160 --> 00:59:48,160
Speaker 1: in the conferences, they know they're hosting, but they are undefeated.

1178
00:59:48,320 --> 00:59:50,360
Speaker 1: They go to a North Texas team that's playing really well.

1179
00:59:50,400 --> 00:59:53,240
Speaker 1: One four and a rowther at five wins wasn't against

1180
00:59:53,280 --> 00:59:56,240
Speaker 1: the greatest competition, but they're trending in the right direction.

1181
00:59:56,400 --> 00:59:58,760
Speaker 1: Does UTSA try go all out for the unefeated season?

1182
00:59:59,280 --> 01:00:02,560
Speaker 1: Do they sit worried about the conference championship? Something to

1183
01:00:02,600 --> 01:00:04,480
Speaker 1: note there. I kind of like North Texas the way

1184
01:00:04,480 --> 01:00:07,560
Speaker 1: they've been playing. I'm a little scared about what's happened

1185
01:00:07,560 --> 01:00:10,040
Speaker 1: when they stepped up in class, but that's something to

1186
01:00:10,160 --> 01:00:12,760
Speaker 1: keep your eye on. I've already mentioned fiu U a

1187
01:00:12,880 --> 01:00:15,600
Speaker 1: B flat spot at home against UTAP. They you know,

1188
01:00:15,640 --> 01:00:18,120
Speaker 1: they lost in the last second. They're laying thirteen and

1189
01:00:18,160 --> 01:00:19,720
Speaker 1: a half. They lost the last second of UTSA to

1190
01:00:19,760 --> 01:00:22,680
Speaker 1: go to the conference championship. I'd be careful with UAB.

1191
01:00:22,760 --> 01:00:24,920
Speaker 1: I'm not sure if I want to bet UTEP. What's up?

1192
01:00:24,920 --> 01:00:29,400
Speaker 1: Modern Nation picks up and the a couple of matchups

1193
01:00:29,400 --> 01:00:34,840
Speaker 1: of five win teams MTSU plays at FAU, Charlotte plays ODU.

1194
01:00:35,080 --> 01:00:40,080
Speaker 1: Winners get Bowl eligibility. But I think the biggest thing

1195
01:00:40,120 --> 01:00:45,880
Speaker 1: here is Western Kentucky, Marshall. We have Western Kentucky futures,

1196
01:00:47,320 --> 01:00:52,280
Speaker 1: the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, the Pride of the Commonwealth.

1197
01:00:53,840 --> 01:00:58,320
Speaker 2: Oh no, no, hell no, oh.

1198
01:00:58,320 --> 01:01:02,720
Speaker 1: No, hell no, Boy, who wins this game? Are you hedging?

1199
01:01:03,080 --> 01:01:04,200
Speaker 1: What's the handicap here?

1200
01:01:04,440 --> 01:01:07,120
Speaker 2: Not hedging going in on Western Kentucky taking. I don't

1201
01:01:07,120 --> 01:01:08,600
Speaker 2: care if you have fourteen to one, ten to one,

1202
01:01:08,720 --> 01:01:12,400
Speaker 2: seven to one, not hedging here, And frankly, from what

1203
01:01:12,440 --> 01:01:14,600
Speaker 2: I've seen out of UTSA secondary, I'm not sure if

1204
01:01:14,600 --> 01:01:17,200
Speaker 2: I'm hedging there either. But when you look at Marshall's rank,

1205
01:01:17,280 --> 01:01:20,480
Speaker 2: they're forty ninth in coverage ranking. When you look at

1206
01:01:20,520 --> 01:01:23,680
Speaker 2: their on defense, whether it's standard downs, or passing downs.

1207
01:01:23,680 --> 01:01:27,080
Speaker 2: They're having problems with the explosive play specifically fifty fourth

1208
01:01:27,160 --> 01:01:31,280
Speaker 2: and passing downs, explosiveness on defense and standardowns, they're seventy

1209
01:01:31,360 --> 01:01:34,680
Speaker 2: sixth the standard down success rate. Western Kentucky is the

1210
01:01:34,720 --> 01:01:37,960
Speaker 2: third best team in the nation in standard down success rate.

1211
01:01:38,160 --> 01:01:42,640
Speaker 2: On offense, they push and move the ball lightning quick.

1212
01:01:42,680 --> 01:01:45,040
Speaker 2: And speaking of lightning quick, these two teams are ranked

1213
01:01:45,080 --> 01:01:47,520
Speaker 2: sixth to ninth and tempo. This is going to be

1214
01:01:47,760 --> 01:01:50,440
Speaker 2: up and down the field. The team that is better

1215
01:01:50,440 --> 01:01:52,280
Speaker 2: and have it allowed and makes the least amount of

1216
01:01:52,280 --> 01:01:55,720
Speaker 2: mistakes is Western Kentucky. They're third in the country and

1217
01:01:55,760 --> 01:01:58,680
Speaker 2: have it allowed. They're number one in passing success rate,

1218
01:01:59,200 --> 01:02:01,560
Speaker 2: and Marshall does not have it in the secondary to

1219
01:02:01,640 --> 01:02:03,960
Speaker 2: keep up with this team. This is going to be

1220
01:02:04,200 --> 01:02:08,160
Speaker 2: an absolute drag race. And at the end of the day,

1221
01:02:08,200 --> 01:02:13,240
Speaker 2: Western Kentucky's got more firepower and there's just nothing Marshall's.

1222
01:02:13,480 --> 01:02:15,040
Speaker 2: You know, Marshll's going to be able to get something

1223
01:02:15,080 --> 01:02:17,360
Speaker 2: done on the ground, but that's not going to work

1224
01:02:17,400 --> 01:02:19,720
Speaker 2: when you're down fourteen, or down ten or down twenty one.

1225
01:02:20,240 --> 01:02:22,440
Speaker 2: So I expect max effort out of Marshall. But at

1226
01:02:22,480 --> 01:02:24,120
Speaker 2: the same time, they do not have the secondary to

1227
01:02:24,160 --> 01:02:26,600
Speaker 2: hang with Western Kentucky. And who really doesn't have the

1228
01:02:27,640 --> 01:02:30,360
Speaker 2: secondary to hang is Utsa, So to pivot over into

1229
01:02:30,400 --> 01:02:33,720
Speaker 2: that game, Utsa has nothing to play for. North Texas

1230
01:02:33,760 --> 01:02:35,840
Speaker 2: right now is a coming undefeated season.

1231
01:02:35,960 --> 01:02:38,680
Speaker 1: Undefeated season, but yeah, nothing other than that.

1232
01:02:39,560 --> 01:02:43,040
Speaker 2: North Texas right now is a covering machine, and Seth

1233
01:02:43,080 --> 01:02:46,840
Speaker 2: Latrell is coaching for his job. Five wins got to

1234
01:02:46,840 --> 01:02:49,000
Speaker 2: have it to go to a bowl. They've covered every

1235
01:02:49,040 --> 01:02:50,920
Speaker 2: game that they've been in, and they've been on fire.

1236
01:02:50,960 --> 01:02:53,640
Speaker 2: Now I'm not talking to Florida International and being up

1237
01:02:53,680 --> 01:02:56,000
Speaker 2: thirty five zero in the second quarter. I mean every

1238
01:02:56,000 --> 01:02:59,640
Speaker 2: week they're covering. So you know, little spoiler alert for

1239
01:02:59,640 --> 01:03:01,840
Speaker 2: three out later. But it's going to be me and Green.

1240
01:03:01,960 --> 01:03:05,120
Speaker 2: I wouldn't be surprised if they win this outright, but no,

1241
01:03:05,120 --> 01:03:08,240
Speaker 2: no hedge in Western Kentucky, and I feel pretty comfortable

1242
01:03:08,240 --> 01:03:10,840
Speaker 2: that Marshall's not going to spoil our chances.

1243
01:03:11,440 --> 01:03:13,360
Speaker 1: Wow, I mean you're in. I think you're hitting it

1244
01:03:13,480 --> 01:03:16,400
Speaker 1: money on Underdog. I was actually considering them. I didn't

1245
01:03:16,480 --> 01:03:18,400
Speaker 1: end up picking them, but we'll see. All right, let's

1246
01:03:18,400 --> 01:03:18,680
Speaker 1: move on.

1247
01:03:18,920 --> 01:03:24,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, ZAPPI our baby Faily Zappy.

1248
01:03:23,760 --> 01:03:25,480
Speaker 1: Brooding I'm gonna let it go to People have been

1249
01:03:25,480 --> 01:03:28,480
Speaker 1: asking about hedges, So like Ken State fourteen to one, listen,

1250
01:03:28,520 --> 01:03:31,600
Speaker 1: it comes down to your own personal risk talents and

1251
01:03:31,600 --> 01:03:35,360
Speaker 1: then your own financial position. Right, does will this be

1252
01:03:36,120 --> 01:03:38,840
Speaker 1: life changing money? Can? Do? You really need it? We

1253
01:03:39,040 --> 01:03:41,320
Speaker 1: be heard if you if you lose it, If you do,

1254
01:03:42,160 --> 01:03:45,040
Speaker 1: you know, just take a bet and then betting on

1255
01:03:45,080 --> 01:03:47,520
Speaker 1: the other team just to get back your initial investment.

1256
01:03:47,840 --> 01:03:50,000
Speaker 1: If that's going to give you peace of mind, if

1257
01:03:50,040 --> 01:03:51,760
Speaker 1: you want to get try to get half of it.

1258
01:03:51,760 --> 01:03:53,680
Speaker 1: It all comes I can't answer that. When you asked

1259
01:03:53,760 --> 01:03:57,160
Speaker 1: me should I hedge? Everyone always messages that it comes

1260
01:03:57,200 --> 01:03:59,480
Speaker 1: down to your own risk talents, your own financial situation.

1261
01:04:00,120 --> 01:04:04,520
Speaker 1: Sometimes it's just basic avoiding mental biases and then that'll

1262
01:04:04,560 --> 01:04:06,360
Speaker 1: impact your betting. And if you need to hedge a

1263
01:04:06,360 --> 01:04:08,920
Speaker 1: little piece of it just to keep yourself saying fine,

1264
01:04:09,000 --> 01:04:11,880
Speaker 1: do it. Everyone is different for many different reasons, so

1265
01:04:11,920 --> 01:04:13,959
Speaker 1: it's really hard to give a blanket answer. I'm letting

1266
01:04:14,000 --> 01:04:17,840
Speaker 1: Kains they go. I'm letting Western Kentucky go, Zappi Hour

1267
01:04:18,360 --> 01:04:21,920
Speaker 1: and flash Fast. Both of those teams are going to

1268
01:04:22,000 --> 01:04:25,240
Speaker 1: be going a million miles an hour for us.

1269
01:04:25,560 --> 01:04:27,800
Speaker 2: This is not life changing money. For me, this is

1270
01:04:27,800 --> 01:04:31,400
Speaker 2: a personal decision. So my advisement is keep money in

1271
01:04:31,400 --> 01:04:33,720
Speaker 2: your wallet. If you need to buy back your initial position,

1272
01:04:33,800 --> 01:04:35,480
Speaker 2: if you want to be in the game long term,

1273
01:04:35,800 --> 01:04:37,760
Speaker 2: find a way to keep money flowing through your wallet.

1274
01:04:37,840 --> 01:04:39,600
Speaker 2: So this is a good chance to do that. I'm

1275
01:04:39,640 --> 01:04:40,280
Speaker 2: letting it roll.

1276
01:04:40,920 --> 01:04:42,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, And then you always, you always can also make

1277
01:04:42,680 --> 01:04:45,400
Speaker 1: a decision if you see something you like mid game

1278
01:04:45,480 --> 01:04:49,400
Speaker 1: or second half, say Western Kentucky is up fourteen, and

1279
01:04:49,440 --> 01:04:50,920
Speaker 1: you want to go for a little middle for your

1280
01:04:50,880 --> 01:04:54,080
Speaker 1: initial investine, maybe try to both. Yeah, there's other things

1281
01:04:54,080 --> 01:04:56,120
Speaker 1: you can try to do as well. But that's gonna

1282
01:04:56,120 --> 01:04:57,920
Speaker 1: be man, this week, that's gonna be so sick, all right,

1283
01:04:57,960 --> 01:05:02,240
Speaker 1: So that's at three third yep, ZAPPI hour, Man, I'm

1284
01:05:02,240 --> 01:05:06,720
Speaker 1: gonna drinks are gonna be flowing at noon before then

1285
01:05:07,120 --> 01:05:09,680
Speaker 1: we have Kent State, who's gonna be going a million

1286
01:05:09,680 --> 01:05:10,439
Speaker 1: miles per hour?

1287
01:05:10,720 --> 01:05:12,760
Speaker 2: You got right? I got a ten to one. What'd

1288
01:05:12,800 --> 01:05:13,400
Speaker 2: you get fourteen?

1289
01:05:13,400 --> 01:05:16,040
Speaker 1: I got fourteen to one, fourteen to one. I'm letting

1290
01:05:16,040 --> 01:05:19,160
Speaker 1: this go. I wrote this game up on actually network

1291
01:05:19,200 --> 01:05:23,600
Speaker 1: dot Common next nor Gap. I bet Miama Ohio's playing

1292
01:05:23,640 --> 01:05:26,560
Speaker 1: really well. They have Gabbertt back who's been much better

1293
01:05:26,960 --> 01:05:31,280
Speaker 1: than the backup Meyer Sorenson, great receiver. Hippen Hammer, the

1294
01:05:31,360 --> 01:05:34,880
Speaker 1: transfer from Penn State's been playing really well. They can

1295
01:05:35,000 --> 01:05:38,000
Speaker 1: sling it around the yard and they're gonna put up

1296
01:05:38,000 --> 01:05:42,280
Speaker 1: points here. Kent State, they have Dustin crumb They have

1297
01:05:42,320 --> 01:05:44,960
Speaker 1: a three header monster in the backfield. They have explosive

1298
01:05:45,000 --> 01:05:47,840
Speaker 1: receivers on the outside. Mina, Ohio front seven is pretty

1299
01:05:47,880 --> 01:05:50,920
Speaker 1: damn good, but their secondary is lacking. They lost for Gumba.

1300
01:05:51,120 --> 01:05:54,160
Speaker 1: They have a corner that they're starting outside of per Pff.

1301
01:05:54,200 --> 01:05:56,400
Speaker 1: He's four hundred and thirty fourth out of four hundred

1302
01:05:56,400 --> 01:05:59,160
Speaker 1: and thirty four corners, minimum hundred snaps and coverage. Kent

1303
01:05:59,160 --> 01:06:01,000
Speaker 1: State's gonna score. This go on everyone and they score

1304
01:06:01,040 --> 01:06:04,560
Speaker 1: within like two minutes. I think the line is about right.

1305
01:06:05,040 --> 01:06:06,920
Speaker 1: It is worth noting that this is at home, and

1306
01:06:07,000 --> 01:06:08,840
Speaker 1: both these teams that think are nine to zero combined

1307
01:06:08,840 --> 01:06:11,640
Speaker 1: at home and they're like one, two and nine on

1308
01:06:11,680 --> 01:06:14,280
Speaker 1: the road, So that might make the difference here. But

1309
01:06:14,680 --> 01:06:17,240
Speaker 1: here's where the market I played the under over sixty

1310
01:06:17,240 --> 01:06:18,800
Speaker 1: four and a half or what it's worth. Here's where

1311
01:06:18,800 --> 01:06:21,000
Speaker 1: the market's not accounting for. It's Kent State special teams.

1312
01:06:21,040 --> 01:06:24,040
Speaker 1: They can't punt it so luckily they don't punt that often.

1313
01:06:24,160 --> 01:06:26,800
Speaker 1: But they more importantly, they can't kick it off this team.

1314
01:06:27,080 --> 01:06:29,560
Speaker 1: They can't. Their kicker can't reach the twenty. So there,

1315
01:06:29,560 --> 01:06:32,280
Speaker 1: I mean, they're dead lasts and touchbacks and teams are

1316
01:06:32,280 --> 01:06:35,200
Speaker 1: starting around the thirty five or forty against them every time,

1317
01:06:35,320 --> 01:06:38,280
Speaker 1: sometimes to fifty. So here's what happens. Kent State scores

1318
01:06:38,320 --> 01:06:40,560
Speaker 1: within two minutes, they lead the nation and drives under

1319
01:06:40,600 --> 01:06:43,840
Speaker 1: two minutes. They kick it off, the team starts around midfield.

1320
01:06:44,200 --> 01:06:46,919
Speaker 1: They score on Kent State's shitty day, Kent State gets

1321
01:06:46,920 --> 01:06:49,000
Speaker 1: the ball, they score in two minutes. I mean, these

1322
01:06:49,040 --> 01:06:51,880
Speaker 1: are why these totals get that up and they still

1323
01:06:51,920 --> 01:06:55,000
Speaker 1: go over sands. That weird Accron game where they actually

1324
01:06:55,080 --> 01:06:58,000
Speaker 1: decided to play slow, I think just maybe given the circumstances,

1325
01:06:58,280 --> 01:07:00,760
Speaker 1: but the game didn't mean much, So I like the over.

1326
01:07:01,120 --> 01:07:03,440
Speaker 1: Still think that Ken State overs are too low. I

1327
01:07:03,440 --> 01:07:06,600
Speaker 1: think both offenses are gonna be firing on all cylinders.

1328
01:07:06,920 --> 01:07:09,480
Speaker 1: Is Kenn State gonna win? I don't know. Could I've

1329
01:07:09,520 --> 01:07:12,040
Speaker 1: seen Miami winning. Absolutely. I think this is like whoever

1330
01:07:12,040 --> 01:07:14,000
Speaker 1: has the ball last wins should be a thrilling game.

1331
01:07:14,040 --> 01:07:16,280
Speaker 1: And I think it's gonna be a shootout. Any thoughts,

1332
01:07:16,520 --> 01:07:17,280
Speaker 1: I'm rolling with you.

1333
01:07:17,320 --> 01:07:19,320
Speaker 2: I'm not a hedge and either I can't stay flash

1334
01:07:19,440 --> 01:07:20,640
Speaker 2: flash fast all the way.

1335
01:07:21,120 --> 01:07:22,840
Speaker 1: Sean gois ptty. All right, let's move on to the

1336
01:07:22,840 --> 01:07:35,800
Speaker 1: Mountain West and softer than a rocking up where it's

1337
01:07:36,160 --> 01:07:39,680
Speaker 1: a little complicated, but you have San Diego State is

1338
01:07:39,720 --> 01:07:42,480
Speaker 1: six and one. They play Boise State on Friday at

1339
01:07:42,560 --> 01:07:45,520
Speaker 1: nine am local time in Carson, California, two hours from

1340
01:07:45,560 --> 01:07:48,680
Speaker 1: campus on Black Friday days for Thanksgiving. There's gonna be

1341
01:07:48,680 --> 01:07:52,080
Speaker 1: like ten people there that's on noon eastern on Friday,

1342
01:07:52,760 --> 01:07:55,360
Speaker 1: and they're six and one. If San Diego State wins

1343
01:07:55,360 --> 01:07:57,840
Speaker 1: and beats Boise they're in. They win the West. If

1344
01:07:57,840 --> 01:08:03,480
Speaker 1: they lose and Fresno State on Thursday beat San Jose State,

1345
01:08:03,520 --> 01:08:06,400
Speaker 1: they're seven and a half point favorites. Fresno State is

1346
01:08:06,400 --> 01:08:08,680
Speaker 1: in because Presno State is the head to head tiebreaker

1347
01:08:08,680 --> 01:08:12,720
Speaker 1: over San Diego State. Interesting nugget here. If San Jose

1348
01:08:12,800 --> 01:08:15,800
Speaker 1: State wins on Thursday, san Diego State is playing for

1349
01:08:15,840 --> 01:08:19,360
Speaker 1: nothing on Friday, so maybe they sit people, maybe their

1350
01:08:19,840 --> 01:08:22,280
Speaker 1: really flat at nine in the morning for a game.

1351
01:08:22,680 --> 01:08:24,439
Speaker 1: So keep your eye on that because that San Jose

1352
01:08:24,520 --> 01:08:26,720
Speaker 1: state that Fresno's taking is on Thursday. If they lose,

1353
01:08:26,720 --> 01:08:30,160
Speaker 1: San Diego State clinches and hosts. Assuming that air Force

1354
01:08:30,240 --> 01:08:32,920
Speaker 1: is now the Mountain is a little more complicated. Boise

1355
01:08:33,520 --> 01:08:35,400
Speaker 1: is five and two, Utah States five and two, air

1356
01:08:35,439 --> 01:08:40,639
Speaker 1: Forces five and two. If Boise wins beat San Diego State,

1357
01:08:40,960 --> 01:08:44,599
Speaker 1: they get the six and two. You would assume Utah

1358
01:08:44,680 --> 01:08:49,120
Speaker 1: State beats New Mexico. You would assume that air Force

1359
01:08:50,040 --> 01:08:55,120
Speaker 1: beats UNLVA seventeen eighteen point favorites. If that's the case,

1360
01:08:55,760 --> 01:09:00,840
Speaker 1: then Utah State wins the tiebreaker. The only way Boise

1361
01:09:01,000 --> 01:09:04,680
Speaker 1: can go is if Boise wins. I mean, both of

1362
01:09:04,720 --> 01:09:06,679
Speaker 1: them can lose if you TOAs State and air Force loses,

1363
01:09:06,800 --> 01:09:10,559
Speaker 1: but they need air Force to lose. And if that's

1364
01:09:10,600 --> 01:09:13,920
Speaker 1: the case, then they are going because if them in

1365
01:09:14,000 --> 01:09:15,760
Speaker 1: Utah State win, they have the head to head over

1366
01:09:15,880 --> 01:09:19,880
Speaker 1: Utah State. If UTAs State loses and air Force wins

1367
01:09:19,920 --> 01:09:21,920
Speaker 1: and Boise wins, air Forces the head to head over

1368
01:09:21,960 --> 01:09:25,960
Speaker 1: Boise State, and the three way tiebreaker, Utah State goes.

1369
01:09:26,640 --> 01:09:29,360
Speaker 1: What it most likely looks like it's gonna happen is

1370
01:09:29,360 --> 01:09:31,479
Speaker 1: that Utah State and air Force are going to be

1371
01:09:31,520 --> 01:09:34,160
Speaker 1: tied at the top. They're both gonna win this weekend,

1372
01:09:34,479 --> 01:09:36,960
Speaker 1: and whether or not Boise wins or not, Utah State's

1373
01:09:36,960 --> 01:09:38,799
Speaker 1: gonna go because if they're in a two way tie,

1374
01:09:39,080 --> 01:09:41,439
Speaker 1: so Boise sol is a shot. I don't know if

1375
01:09:41,479 --> 01:09:44,080
Speaker 1: all that made sense, but Boise State Sandego State should

1376
01:09:44,080 --> 01:09:45,600
Speaker 1: be a hell of a game. I love Boise I

1377
01:09:45,640 --> 01:09:48,320
Speaker 1: love the under my quest. I wrote this game up

1378
01:09:48,320 --> 01:09:50,120
Speaker 1: as well, so you can. I'll tweet it out and

1379
01:09:50,120 --> 01:09:52,400
Speaker 1: it'll be on xtionwork dot com extnork Gap. Here's my

1380
01:09:52,479 --> 01:09:55,880
Speaker 1: quick handicap. The Boise defense is rolling. It makes sense

1381
01:09:55,920 --> 01:09:59,000
Speaker 1: that this defense is rolling now. Andy Avolos brilliant defensive mind.

1382
01:09:59,000 --> 01:10:01,360
Speaker 1: They brought in a new staff, new scheme. They had

1383
01:10:01,360 --> 01:10:03,160
Speaker 1: a lot of injuries early on. They had a lot

1384
01:10:03,160 --> 01:10:06,520
Speaker 1: of targeting penalties. Jayel Skinner who missed like three halves

1385
01:10:06,880 --> 01:10:11,000
Speaker 1: NFL future NFL safety there Riley Whimpy, their star linebacker.

1386
01:10:11,000 --> 01:10:13,240
Speaker 1: He missed first half against Oklahoma State. Oyklohoma State put

1387
01:10:13,320 --> 01:10:14,640
Speaker 1: up twenty one of the first half, didn't score the

1388
01:10:14,640 --> 01:10:17,519
Speaker 1: second half. Cup Blank their nickelback. But they've made a

1389
01:10:17,560 --> 01:10:19,920
Speaker 1: lot of change. Number one, they got used to this scheme.

1390
01:10:20,200 --> 01:10:23,799
Speaker 1: Number two, they made a lot of personnel changes at corner.

1391
01:10:23,960 --> 01:10:27,519
Speaker 1: They're playing biggers, this kid from Bowling Green. They're playing

1392
01:10:27,560 --> 01:10:30,160
Speaker 1: this younger kid on the outside who were playing really well.

1393
01:10:30,320 --> 01:10:33,479
Speaker 1: Defensive line got healthy, the run defenses playing well. Is

1394
01:10:33,479 --> 01:10:35,040
Speaker 1: the team that just held New Mexico to I think

1395
01:10:35,080 --> 01:10:38,599
Speaker 1: seventy six yards and shut them out. They shut down Fresno.

1396
01:10:38,840 --> 01:10:44,360
Speaker 1: This defense is rolling. Also, Boise Special teams elite just

1397
01:10:44,400 --> 01:10:46,200
Speaker 1: like San Diego State, not as good. You don't have

1398
01:10:46,280 --> 01:10:49,959
Speaker 1: the punt god, but neutralized the San Diego State's advantage

1399
01:10:50,400 --> 01:10:54,000
Speaker 1: a bit here. And on the other side of the ball. Look,

1400
01:10:54,040 --> 01:10:56,559
Speaker 1: san Diego State's defense is great, but they lost three

1401
01:10:56,600 --> 01:10:59,720
Speaker 1: pros in the secondary, and whenever they've been tested, they've

1402
01:10:59,720 --> 01:11:03,000
Speaker 1: shown little vulnerability. Boise State can't really run the ball,

1403
01:11:03,200 --> 01:11:05,280
Speaker 1: but tim Plows figured out a couple things how to

1404
01:11:05,280 --> 01:11:07,760
Speaker 1: get the receivers involved in the running game. But all

1405
01:11:07,800 --> 01:11:10,360
Speaker 1: this comes down to to me Special teams kind of

1406
01:11:10,360 --> 01:11:13,360
Speaker 1: a wash little events of San Diego State. But the

1407
01:11:13,479 --> 01:11:16,200
Speaker 1: difference between I have Boison out of the top twenty

1408
01:11:16,200 --> 01:11:20,120
Speaker 1: five defense nationally. The difference between the San Diego State defense,

1409
01:11:20,120 --> 01:11:23,920
Speaker 1: which is like top ten, and the Boise offense, which

1410
01:11:23,960 --> 01:11:28,080
Speaker 1: is like average, and the Boise State defense, which is

1411
01:11:28,080 --> 01:11:31,679
Speaker 1: top twenty five, and the poverty San Diego State offense

1412
01:11:31,760 --> 01:11:33,800
Speaker 1: is huge. I don't see how San Diego State moves

1413
01:11:33,840 --> 01:11:37,519
Speaker 1: the ball here. This Boise State defense is rolling and

1414
01:11:37,680 --> 01:11:40,439
Speaker 1: they're going to stuff the box. The run defense is improved.

1415
01:11:40,960 --> 01:11:43,400
Speaker 1: Boise State will hit enough exposive place through the air,

1416
01:11:43,439 --> 01:11:48,200
Speaker 1: probably the Shakir with Backmeyer to get this done in

1417
01:11:48,280 --> 01:11:51,240
Speaker 1: a low scoring game. A lot of field position might

1418
01:11:51,240 --> 01:11:53,320
Speaker 1: be they might be. I don't know how they're going

1419
01:11:53,360 --> 01:11:55,320
Speaker 1: to react to a nine am start, but a lot

1420
01:11:55,360 --> 01:11:58,439
Speaker 1: of field position, a lot of tackling. San Diego State

1421
01:11:58,479 --> 01:12:00,040
Speaker 1: wants to run and play slow. Bois he plays a

1422
01:12:00,080 --> 01:12:02,960
Speaker 1: little faster, wants to throw it, but San Diego State's

1423
01:12:02,960 --> 01:12:05,559
Speaker 1: defense will hold its own, will get the punt. God

1424
01:12:06,080 --> 01:12:08,920
Speaker 1: controlling the field position. I think this goes under and

1425
01:12:08,960 --> 01:12:09,960
Speaker 1: I think Boise wins.

1426
01:12:10,960 --> 01:12:12,639
Speaker 2: I like that. I'm going to follow up on that play.

1427
01:12:12,680 --> 01:12:14,880
Speaker 2: I'm going to actually take San Jose State at home

1428
01:12:15,040 --> 01:12:18,880
Speaker 2: at two thirty nine on Thanksgiving Day against Fresno State,

1429
01:12:18,920 --> 01:12:21,800
Speaker 2: a team that has five wins, wants to get to

1430
01:12:21,840 --> 01:12:25,519
Speaker 2: Bowl season, has dealt with injuries all year long. Nick

1431
01:12:25,600 --> 01:12:29,280
Speaker 2: Nash playing quarterback, which is you know, really kind of

1432
01:12:29,360 --> 01:12:31,519
Speaker 2: generated a lot of these bad numbers that you see

1433
01:12:31,520 --> 01:12:33,040
Speaker 2: on offense. I can't sit here and tell you that

1434
01:12:33,080 --> 01:12:35,160
Speaker 2: they're really one hundred and tenth and rushing success rate

1435
01:12:35,400 --> 01:12:37,479
Speaker 2: or one hundred and tenth and finishing drives because they

1436
01:12:37,760 --> 01:12:39,920
Speaker 2: haven't had Nick Starkle, they haven't had their full set

1437
01:12:39,920 --> 01:12:43,599
Speaker 2: of players. But they are playing extremely good pass covers.

1438
01:12:43,640 --> 01:12:46,360
Speaker 2: They're thirty third in pass coverage, they're top twenty five

1439
01:12:46,360 --> 01:12:48,880
Speaker 2: and defending the explosive play, both things that you have

1440
01:12:48,960 --> 01:12:52,400
Speaker 2: to have against Hayner, against Ronie Rivers, against everything that

1441
01:12:52,439 --> 01:12:55,400
Speaker 2: Fresno State brings to the table. But it's just I

1442
01:12:55,400 --> 01:12:58,760
Speaker 2: mean to leave Fresno on Thanksgiving Day and go to

1443
01:12:58,880 --> 01:13:01,120
Speaker 2: go up to San Jose, Yeah, you know. I mean

1444
01:13:01,120 --> 01:13:03,720
Speaker 2: that is not an easy drive, and I expect that

1445
01:13:03,800 --> 01:13:06,280
Speaker 2: to increase the home field advantage. And it's a game

1446
01:13:06,280 --> 01:13:08,679
Speaker 2: that I make at six. So at seven and a half,

1447
01:13:08,680 --> 01:13:10,040
Speaker 2: it has a lot of value. I play it through

1448
01:13:10,080 --> 01:13:11,479
Speaker 2: to six and I think that they can win out.

1449
01:13:11,360 --> 01:13:15,559
Speaker 1: Right, Yep, I agree with Sandy. I agree with San

1450
01:13:15,600 --> 01:13:20,679
Speaker 1: Jose State. All right, sec here it just means more

1451
01:13:22,640 --> 01:13:28,439
Speaker 1: Missouri Arkansas. Here's my quick take on this. Missouri's offense

1452
01:13:28,560 --> 01:13:31,240
Speaker 1: is a mess. They've had a lot of offensivises. They've lost.

1453
01:13:31,640 --> 01:13:33,519
Speaker 1: They're under the third string where I tackled, they lost

1454
01:13:33,520 --> 01:13:35,760
Speaker 1: their their guard, their MVP of the offensive line. They've

1455
01:13:35,800 --> 01:13:37,439
Speaker 1: been shifting all a lot of people around. They left

1456
01:13:37,439 --> 01:13:39,240
Speaker 1: tackle and center good. Everyone else has been shifting around.

1457
01:13:39,320 --> 01:13:43,759
Speaker 1: They don't have good receivers and everything goes as Tyler

1458
01:13:43,760 --> 01:13:46,160
Speaker 1: Baty goes. If you can run, they can move the

1459
01:13:46,200 --> 01:13:49,920
Speaker 1: ball a little bit. However, what was really holding back

1460
01:13:49,920 --> 01:13:52,680
Speaker 1: WITHSSORI early there is their defense. But their defense is

1461
01:13:52,720 --> 01:13:55,679
Speaker 1: playing really well. They played really well for three straight

1462
01:13:55,680 --> 01:13:57,760
Speaker 1: weeks and the run defense is improved. I think that

1463
01:13:58,439 --> 01:14:00,360
Speaker 1: look they fire the defensive line coach. They brought in

1464
01:14:00,360 --> 01:14:02,439
Speaker 1: Steve Wolk's new defense court in a pro guy please

1465
01:14:02,439 --> 01:14:05,960
Speaker 1: a lot of complex zones cover zeros. Took them a

1466
01:14:05,960 --> 01:14:07,679
Speaker 1: while to get used to it. Their defense is playing

1467
01:14:08,160 --> 01:14:10,800
Speaker 1: better now. They were missing their star corner last week,

1468
01:14:10,840 --> 01:14:12,439
Speaker 1: who got invited to the Senior bol. I don't expect

1469
01:14:12,479 --> 01:14:14,320
Speaker 1: them to play this week. True freshman stepped in and

1470
01:14:14,400 --> 01:14:18,439
Speaker 1: was outstanding against Florida, but I don't see Baby being

1471
01:14:18,439 --> 01:14:20,559
Speaker 1: able to run much on Arkansas, So I don't think

1472
01:14:20,720 --> 01:14:22,519
Speaker 1: I think Missouri's going to struggle to move the ball,

1473
01:14:22,800 --> 01:14:25,360
Speaker 1: and this improved Missouri defense, I don't think it's being

1474
01:14:25,400 --> 01:14:27,479
Speaker 1: captured in the market. So I think the totals is

1475
01:14:27,520 --> 01:14:30,320
Speaker 1: a tad too high. I like the under, but defer

1476
01:14:30,360 --> 01:14:31,240
Speaker 1: to you. And what do you see with.

1477
01:14:31,200 --> 01:14:35,559
Speaker 2: Your hogs woo pig suye. Missouri's gonna have a hangover here.

1478
01:14:35,720 --> 01:14:37,920
Speaker 2: I mean, they became Bowl eligible and they got Dan

1479
01:14:38,000 --> 01:14:40,800
Speaker 2: Mullen fired and drink Witz just with the ultimate press

1480
01:14:40,840 --> 01:14:43,840
Speaker 2: conference trolling of all time. I mean, this Missouri team,

1481
01:14:43,840 --> 01:14:46,120
Speaker 2: They've had their share of struggles on offense. Connor Beazlak

1482
01:14:46,160 --> 01:14:48,320
Speaker 2: has not been the same since coming back from injury,

1483
01:14:48,479 --> 01:14:50,040
Speaker 2: and they have a defense it's one hundred and twenty

1484
01:14:50,040 --> 01:14:52,200
Speaker 2: first in the red zone. It's just it's going to

1485
01:14:52,280 --> 01:14:55,120
Speaker 2: be a really bad combination against an Arkansas offensive line

1486
01:14:55,360 --> 01:14:58,080
Speaker 2: and a multiplayer running back unit that can just dominate

1487
01:14:58,120 --> 01:15:01,760
Speaker 2: most trenches in college football. But I give Arkansas credit

1488
01:15:01,800 --> 01:15:04,200
Speaker 2: for showing up against Alabama. I thought they would know

1489
01:15:04,280 --> 01:15:06,439
Speaker 2: show and I couldn't have been more wrong with what

1490
01:15:06,439 --> 01:15:09,160
Speaker 2: Pittman does with this team weekend and week out. Sixty

1491
01:15:09,160 --> 01:15:12,360
Speaker 2: one percent success rate in standardowns against Alabama defense, six

1492
01:15:12,360 --> 01:15:16,439
Speaker 2: point three yards against the tiede front seven and standard downs.

1493
01:15:16,880 --> 01:15:20,559
Speaker 2: You cannot beat the Hogs unless you put kJ Jefferson

1494
01:15:20,560 --> 01:15:24,000
Speaker 2: in passing downs, contain the pocket, and throw quadruple coverage

1495
01:15:24,040 --> 01:15:26,960
Speaker 2: on Traylon Burks, who's healthy, by the way, So back

1496
01:15:26,960 --> 01:15:30,960
Speaker 2: to Bezolic. He's posted his two worst adjust to completion

1497
01:15:31,040 --> 01:15:34,160
Speaker 2: percentage games of this season the last two weeks against

1498
01:15:34,200 --> 01:15:38,400
Speaker 2: South Carolina and Florida. Arkansas has been fantastic at getting

1499
01:15:38,400 --> 01:15:41,320
Speaker 2: on the board early in games, and Missouri is outside

1500
01:15:41,320 --> 01:15:43,839
Speaker 2: the top one hundred and scoring differential in the first half.

1501
01:15:43,920 --> 01:15:47,320
Speaker 2: They're coming down to Fayetteville. Do a little geography lesson.

1502
01:15:47,360 --> 01:15:49,599
Speaker 2: There is no direct route from Columbia to Fayeville. It's

1503
01:15:49,640 --> 01:15:52,439
Speaker 2: a big hangover spot. Hoggs first quarter minus three and

1504
01:15:52,439 --> 01:15:54,639
Speaker 2: a half, Hogs first half minus seven.

1505
01:15:54,439 --> 01:15:55,000
Speaker 1: And a half.

1506
01:15:55,600 --> 01:15:57,759
Speaker 2: Two hundred and fifty thousand dollars bonus for Sam Pittman.

1507
01:15:57,800 --> 01:15:59,880
Speaker 2: And we're going to try to make our way into

1508
01:16:00,040 --> 01:16:01,320
Speaker 2: way Hire Ball. We don't want to be in the

1509
01:16:01,400 --> 01:16:04,759
Speaker 2: Duke's Male Bowl. Put us in Florida and Tampa Orlando.

1510
01:16:04,880 --> 01:16:09,840
Speaker 1: Please, there you have it, Kentucky Louisville. Big rivalry here.

1511
01:16:09,960 --> 01:16:11,880
Speaker 1: I make it spot on DC. You have anything there?

1512
01:16:12,360 --> 01:16:12,679
Speaker 2: Nothing?

1513
01:16:13,240 --> 01:16:15,639
Speaker 1: Okay, well right up on actionwork dot Com, Nextion NEWORKAP

1514
01:16:15,680 --> 01:16:17,880
Speaker 1: if you want more insight there By the way, live

1515
01:16:17,920 --> 01:16:20,080
Speaker 1: show Big Bets on Campus Live ten thirty am Eastern

1516
01:16:20,200 --> 01:16:24,439
Speaker 1: both Friday and Saturday for both slates. All right, let's

1517
01:16:24,439 --> 01:16:26,479
Speaker 1: talk some egg Bowl. By the way, we have to

1518
01:16:26,520 --> 01:16:35,680
Speaker 1: talk some egg Bowl, Am I, S. S. S. Sie B. Yeah.

1519
01:16:35,720 --> 01:16:37,880
Speaker 1: I can't wait for this game. It's always one of

1520
01:16:37,920 --> 01:16:41,280
Speaker 1: my favorite college football regular season games of the year.

1521
01:16:41,439 --> 01:16:43,960
Speaker 1: Now we have Leech and Lane Kiffin. I think we're

1522
01:16:43,960 --> 01:16:48,400
Speaker 1: gonna disagree on this game. Right now, Mississippi State is

1523
01:16:48,479 --> 01:16:52,040
Speaker 1: sitting at a let's double check, a one and a

1524
01:16:52,080 --> 01:16:56,840
Speaker 1: half point favorite at home over under sixty two. Speaking

1525
01:16:56,880 --> 01:17:00,000
Speaker 1: about unders, and all Miss unders have been free money

1526
01:17:00,080 --> 01:17:02,840
Speaker 1: with Ole Miss lately. Look when I look at this game,

1527
01:17:02,960 --> 01:17:05,679
Speaker 1: Will Rodgers is playing at such a high level, and yes,

1528
01:17:05,720 --> 01:17:08,960
Speaker 1: he could say teams that you know dropped, you know

1529
01:17:09,000 --> 01:17:11,479
Speaker 1: they have the rush three and drop eight used to

1530
01:17:11,520 --> 01:17:14,280
Speaker 1: have success against Leech and they did. Jimmy Lake used

1531
01:17:14,280 --> 01:17:16,560
Speaker 1: to do that against Washington State. Teams are doing that

1532
01:17:16,600 --> 01:17:17,920
Speaker 1: this year and they have to see and Will Rodgers

1533
01:17:17,920 --> 01:17:20,680
Speaker 1: is still look at Kentucky does that? Well, Rodgers, what

1534
01:17:20,680 --> 01:17:22,240
Speaker 1: do you go forty one to forty four for four

1535
01:17:22,320 --> 01:17:24,960
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty yards. He's rolling right now. I think

1536
01:17:24,960 --> 01:17:26,640
Speaker 1: that he can move the ball up. Mississippi wants to

1537
01:17:26,640 --> 01:17:28,519
Speaker 1: take away the exposed to play. All right, that's fine,

1538
01:17:28,560 --> 01:17:31,800
Speaker 1: that's not what Mississippi State lives and dies by. They

1539
01:17:31,800 --> 01:17:34,599
Speaker 1: want to move it methodically down the field with real

1540
01:17:34,680 --> 01:17:37,120
Speaker 1: rodgers throwing the ball. I think he can have success

1541
01:17:37,200 --> 01:17:38,880
Speaker 1: doing that here. On the other side of the ball,

1542
01:17:39,600 --> 01:17:43,519
Speaker 1: Mississippi State's defense is outstanding against the run. They also

1543
01:17:43,560 --> 01:17:46,559
Speaker 1: have two really good corners who I think can match

1544
01:17:46,640 --> 01:17:48,840
Speaker 1: up here. But you have to remember their old Miss

1545
01:17:48,880 --> 01:17:52,120
Speaker 1: wants to set up everything through the run. Mississippi State

1546
01:17:52,160 --> 01:17:55,120
Speaker 1: can hang here. Their defense has proved that all year long.

1547
01:17:56,479 --> 01:18:01,719
Speaker 1: And look, it's a short week. Ole Miss has played

1548
01:18:01,920 --> 01:18:04,760
Speaker 1: a gauntlet. I know they played Vanderbilt last week, but

1549
01:18:04,800 --> 01:18:07,160
Speaker 1: they were in a kind of a battle with Vanderbilt

1550
01:18:07,200 --> 01:18:10,759
Speaker 1: last week, and they just played nothing but SEC teams

1551
01:18:11,040 --> 01:18:14,720
Speaker 1: week after week. At th week, their bibe was in September. Meanwhile,

1552
01:18:15,120 --> 01:18:18,680
Speaker 1: Mississippi State had there by later. They just had a

1553
01:18:18,760 --> 01:18:21,280
Speaker 1: laugher this past weekend at home. They get to stay

1554
01:18:21,280 --> 01:18:24,439
Speaker 1: at home. I think they're gonna be much fresher, and

1555
01:18:25,400 --> 01:18:27,479
Speaker 1: you know all those injuries that Ole Miss has been

1556
01:18:27,520 --> 01:18:29,639
Speaker 1: dealing with that have kind of held the offense back

1557
01:18:30,280 --> 01:18:34,320
Speaker 1: short week here, you know, maybe some of them flare up.

1558
01:18:35,000 --> 01:18:38,120
Speaker 1: I trust Leech here. I trust this Mississippi State defense.

1559
01:18:38,160 --> 01:18:42,120
Speaker 1: I trust Will Rogers. I think Mississippi State gets this

1560
01:18:42,240 --> 01:18:45,320
Speaker 1: done against an old Miss offense that's just been a

1561
01:18:45,360 --> 01:18:48,840
Speaker 1: little off for the past month due to injuries, and

1562
01:18:49,040 --> 01:18:52,760
Speaker 1: you know, it's just just not the same elite unit

1563
01:18:52,800 --> 01:18:55,200
Speaker 1: that we've seen earlier than the other. Defense has improved

1564
01:18:55,200 --> 01:18:56,960
Speaker 1: a little bit, but I don't think it's going to

1565
01:18:57,040 --> 01:19:01,320
Speaker 1: slow down. Leech, Rogers and company. Give me the dogs,

1566
01:19:01,800 --> 01:19:04,080
Speaker 1: give me the cow bell. I'll be ringing it on

1567
01:19:04,160 --> 01:19:04,880
Speaker 1: Thursday night.

1568
01:19:05,400 --> 01:19:07,160
Speaker 2: I actually agree with everything that you have to say.

1569
01:19:07,200 --> 01:19:10,160
Speaker 2: I mean, this Mississippi State offense has been fantastic. Will

1570
01:19:10,240 --> 01:19:13,679
Speaker 2: Rogers thirty four to eight t I int ratio one

1571
01:19:13,720 --> 01:19:17,839
Speaker 2: point eight percent turnover worthy plays this year, that's minimal.

1572
01:19:18,439 --> 01:19:22,520
Speaker 2: Leech's offense has been fantastic. They even broke Dak Prescott's

1573
01:19:22,560 --> 01:19:24,960
Speaker 2: Mississippi State record for passing yards and tds in a

1574
01:19:25,000 --> 01:19:28,040
Speaker 2: season with real Rogers. But the place to attack the

1575
01:19:28,040 --> 01:19:31,080
Speaker 2: Bulldogs on their defense is in standardowns. The Bulldogs have

1576
01:19:31,120 --> 01:19:34,120
Speaker 2: given up chunk plays all season and they rank outside

1577
01:19:34,120 --> 01:19:36,800
Speaker 2: the top one hundred and defending the explosive play in

1578
01:19:36,960 --> 01:19:40,360
Speaker 2: standard downs on first and ten, second and seven. They

1579
01:19:40,400 --> 01:19:43,160
Speaker 2: have been eaten alive by explosive plays. And if you

1580
01:19:43,200 --> 01:19:45,080
Speaker 2: turn around and look at what Old Miss is playing for,

1581
01:19:45,240 --> 01:19:47,400
Speaker 2: yes they're playing for Sugar Bowl, but that's going down

1582
01:19:47,479 --> 01:19:49,479
Speaker 2: narrative street. If you want to look at actual street.

1583
01:19:50,240 --> 01:19:53,360
Speaker 2: Jonathan Mingo played last week. He had a catch from

1584
01:19:53,720 --> 01:19:57,640
Speaker 2: Matt Corrall. Matt corral continues to limit the number of

1585
01:19:57,720 --> 01:19:59,960
Speaker 2: zone reads, the number of times that he's left the pocket,

1586
01:20:00,320 --> 01:20:03,160
Speaker 2: But all indications are this is the healthiest that this

1587
01:20:03,240 --> 01:20:06,080
Speaker 2: Ole Miss offense has been in the past six weeks.

1588
01:20:06,960 --> 01:20:09,439
Speaker 2: And I think that that's gonna be a big difference

1589
01:20:09,479 --> 01:20:10,160
Speaker 2: in the first half.

1590
01:20:10,200 --> 01:20:10,800
Speaker 1: And if you look at.

1591
01:20:10,720 --> 01:20:14,360
Speaker 2: Mississippi State through SEC conference play, it takes them three

1592
01:20:14,479 --> 01:20:17,800
Speaker 2: or four drives before they start dominating teams. They dink

1593
01:20:17,840 --> 01:20:20,200
Speaker 2: and dunk on offense with the air raid. They play

1594
01:20:20,240 --> 01:20:23,599
Speaker 2: really good defense, outstanding rush defense. So I think Old

1595
01:20:23,600 --> 01:20:25,559
Speaker 2: Miss is going to have success. You're right, They're built

1596
01:20:25,600 --> 01:20:27,800
Speaker 2: to have a two man front and stop and prevent

1597
01:20:27,840 --> 01:20:30,639
Speaker 2: explosive plays, but that's not Mississippi State's game. The problem

1598
01:20:30,720 --> 01:20:32,680
Speaker 2: is it takes a couple drives where Will Rodgers is

1599
01:20:32,720 --> 01:20:34,760
Speaker 2: really accurate on point. It never comes out in the

1600
01:20:34,760 --> 01:20:36,519
Speaker 2: first drive. So I think Old Miss is going to

1601
01:20:36,600 --> 01:20:39,519
Speaker 2: have success early. I'm taking ole Miss in the first half,

1602
01:20:39,800 --> 01:20:42,280
Speaker 2: but I think this comes all the way down to

1603
01:20:42,400 --> 01:20:46,080
Speaker 2: the wire. So I'm confident that ole Miss is healthy

1604
01:20:46,160 --> 01:20:48,840
Speaker 2: for the first time in weeks. On offense, I think

1605
01:20:48,840 --> 01:20:50,800
Speaker 2: they're going to show that with Matt kraw a last

1606
01:20:50,840 --> 01:20:53,080
Speaker 2: ditch effort for the heisman. I think he's gonna leave

1607
01:20:53,080 --> 01:20:55,040
Speaker 2: the pocket more than he has since that Tennessee game

1608
01:20:55,040 --> 01:20:57,320
Speaker 2: when he took off thirty times, and then there'll be

1609
01:20:57,320 --> 01:21:00,320
Speaker 2: adjustments made and it'll become a complete dog fight and

1610
01:21:00,320 --> 01:21:02,240
Speaker 2: hopefully no one's peeing in the end zone at the end.

1611
01:21:02,240 --> 01:21:05,000
Speaker 2: But I like old missing the first half here before

1612
01:21:05,120 --> 01:21:07,600
Speaker 2: the air raid attack catches up and makes this a

1613
01:21:07,640 --> 01:21:08,439
Speaker 2: game all the way.

1614
01:21:08,280 --> 01:21:10,519
Speaker 1: To the end. Yeah, that's a good point. I will

1615
01:21:10,560 --> 01:21:12,479
Speaker 1: be curious to see if he does. If Coral does

1616
01:21:12,560 --> 01:21:14,519
Speaker 1: run a lot more, I mean he does have an

1617
01:21:14,600 --> 01:21:16,800
Speaker 1: NFL future in his head, so I mean if Leane

1618
01:21:16,800 --> 01:21:19,400
Speaker 1: wants to run him thirty times to beat leech. Good

1619
01:21:19,400 --> 01:21:23,479
Speaker 1: for him, but where they where the total sits? Right now?

1620
01:21:23,520 --> 01:21:25,240
Speaker 1: I would lean the under another under. I think, what

1621
01:21:25,320 --> 01:21:26,960
Speaker 1: is all miss at four or five four or five

1622
01:21:27,040 --> 01:21:27,720
Speaker 1: unders in a row?

1623
01:21:27,840 --> 01:21:29,880
Speaker 2: Missisippi State's hit four overs in a row when I

1624
01:21:29,880 --> 01:21:32,160
Speaker 2: was researching this game, Yeah, you're right, Yeah, How is

1625
01:21:32,160 --> 01:21:34,479
Speaker 2: Mississippi State four overs in a row and Old Misses

1626
01:21:34,479 --> 01:21:36,439
Speaker 2: four unders in five unders in a row? How would

1627
01:21:36,479 --> 01:21:37,880
Speaker 2: you even guess that?

1628
01:21:38,120 --> 01:21:40,880
Speaker 1: Right? Yeah? Because Mississippi State wants to bleed the cloth.

1629
01:21:40,920 --> 01:21:42,920
Speaker 1: They go slow even though they just throw all the time,

1630
01:21:42,960 --> 01:21:45,599
Speaker 1: and Ole Miss wants to go fast. I do lean

1631
01:21:45,680 --> 01:21:48,920
Speaker 1: under that. Not a huge guy, but I personally think

1632
01:21:48,920 --> 01:21:50,439
Speaker 1: the ball dogs get it done. But it should be

1633
01:21:50,439 --> 01:21:53,680
Speaker 1: a good one, highly entertaining, great game for Twitter. All right,

1634
01:21:53,960 --> 01:21:56,360
Speaker 1: we have one conference to close out, O Sun Belt,

1635
01:21:56,880 --> 01:21:59,599
Speaker 1: don't let the latest come between you and the bill.

1636
01:22:00,360 --> 01:22:02,880
Speaker 1: It's app State versus ULL next week and that's locked

1637
01:22:02,920 --> 01:22:06,040
Speaker 1: in game will be at ul Does ULL care they

1638
01:22:06,080 --> 01:22:10,280
Speaker 1: play ULM? And does app State care they played Georgia Southern?

1639
01:22:10,840 --> 01:22:14,160
Speaker 1: I played ULM plus twenty two. There's a couple of

1640
01:22:14,160 --> 01:22:16,400
Speaker 1: reasons why I don't know if ULL will care for

1641
01:22:16,400 --> 01:22:19,920
Speaker 1: they're playing for absolutely nothing. We won't say his name.

1642
01:22:20,560 --> 01:22:23,519
Speaker 1: Is talking to like Florida and LSU for coaching coach

1643
01:22:23,520 --> 01:22:24,360
Speaker 1: openings this week.

1644
01:22:25,000 --> 01:22:26,439
Speaker 2: Scared money, don't make money.

1645
01:22:26,560 --> 01:22:29,040
Speaker 1: You know they already know they're hosting the conference championship

1646
01:22:29,040 --> 01:22:32,240
Speaker 1: next weekend. They're playing for nothing. I think ULM shows

1647
01:22:32,280 --> 01:22:33,920
Speaker 1: up here. They only have four wins, not playing for both,

1648
01:22:33,960 --> 01:22:35,559
Speaker 1: but the new staff, it's a team on OH to

1649
01:22:35,560 --> 01:22:38,599
Speaker 1: ten last year, they're still trying. They went they played

1650
01:22:38,960 --> 01:22:41,280
Speaker 1: U at LSU really tough last week they lost twenty

1651
01:22:41,280 --> 01:22:44,800
Speaker 1: seven to fourteen. And last year, during one of the

1652
01:22:44,840 --> 01:22:47,519
Speaker 1: most embarrassing years you can have, they went oh to ten.

1653
01:22:47,560 --> 01:22:50,080
Speaker 1: They never led for a second the whole year. At

1654
01:22:50,080 --> 01:22:52,599
Speaker 1: the very end of the year they lost seventy to

1655
01:22:53,000 --> 01:22:58,000
Speaker 1: twenty at home with ULL running it up. So I

1656
01:22:58,000 --> 01:22:59,640
Speaker 1: think that they're gonna This is kind of like that

1657
01:22:59,720 --> 01:23:03,720
Speaker 1: spot with Coastal Carolina and Georgia State when Georgia State

1658
01:23:03,760 --> 01:23:05,960
Speaker 1: I think, lost sixty five to nothing on their home field,

1659
01:23:06,439 --> 01:23:09,000
Speaker 1: went to Coastal Carolina this year and got payback and

1660
01:23:09,040 --> 01:23:11,400
Speaker 1: went right. So I think you shows up here. I

1661
01:23:11,439 --> 01:23:13,960
Speaker 1: think these lines inflated. There's a chance that you sits.

1662
01:23:14,040 --> 01:23:17,760
Speaker 1: Guys just basic runs, stay healthy. So I like that

1663
01:23:17,880 --> 01:23:20,559
Speaker 1: no interest in the app State game anything in the

1664
01:23:20,560 --> 01:23:21,000
Speaker 1: Belt for you.

1665
01:23:21,360 --> 01:23:23,000
Speaker 2: Well, I think with app State, I mean that is

1666
01:23:23,040 --> 01:23:25,600
Speaker 2: a very large spread against the Georgia Southern team that

1667
01:23:25,720 --> 01:23:29,360
Speaker 2: runs an extremely slow ground offense. So I think it's

1668
01:23:29,400 --> 01:23:31,280
Speaker 2: a little inflated there. But I'm not trying to get

1669
01:23:31,280 --> 01:23:33,960
Speaker 2: in the way of app State. And then the coach

1670
01:23:34,000 --> 01:23:36,439
Speaker 2: that we will not speak of, who's entertaining offers from

1671
01:23:36,479 --> 01:23:38,479
Speaker 2: everybody because he likes to look at himself in the

1672
01:23:38,479 --> 01:23:44,639
Speaker 2: mirror and blow bets. Let's just say, let's put a pause,

1673
01:23:45,040 --> 01:23:48,200
Speaker 2: let's table the Sun Belt and just expect the Mountaineers.

1674
01:23:49,120 --> 01:23:51,360
Speaker 2: Expect a Mountaineers wager to be coming through that. Oh

1675
01:23:51,439 --> 01:23:54,320
Speaker 2: I already have I think before a four to one

1676
01:23:54,400 --> 01:23:56,759
Speaker 2: futures play on app State to win the Sun Belt.

1677
01:23:57,040 --> 01:23:59,240
Speaker 2: I remember do hitting that. I remember hitting that for

1678
01:23:59,280 --> 01:24:01,040
Speaker 2: a nickel. App State is going to be the play

1679
01:24:01,040 --> 01:24:04,120
Speaker 2: against Ull. We'll see if the coaching will not be

1680
01:24:04,160 --> 01:24:06,679
Speaker 2: named actually shows up this weekend, all right.

1681
01:24:06,720 --> 01:24:11,160
Speaker 1: Before we go three and out. Stick of the week here, smelly, smelly,

1682
01:24:11,479 --> 01:24:12,120
Speaker 1: s melly.

1683
01:24:12,400 --> 01:24:13,160
Speaker 2: It's the smell.

1684
01:24:13,720 --> 01:24:14,599
Speaker 1: It's quite pungent.

1685
01:24:14,840 --> 01:24:15,840
Speaker 2: Dude, plug your nose.

1686
01:24:16,439 --> 01:24:17,560
Speaker 1: It's stinks.

1687
01:24:18,240 --> 01:24:21,160
Speaker 2: This is your stink of the league.

1688
01:24:24,120 --> 01:24:29,280
Speaker 1: Smell do this quickly. Florida Florida State. Florida is a

1689
01:24:29,320 --> 01:24:31,599
Speaker 1: three point now to three point favorite. I played Florida

1690
01:24:31,600 --> 01:24:34,920
Speaker 1: minus two, still like them a minus three. Emory Jones

1691
01:24:34,920 --> 01:24:36,639
Speaker 1: out for the year. That means we're getting a R fifteen.

1692
01:24:36,920 --> 01:24:39,479
Speaker 1: I love this Florida State team with Jordan Dravis. They're

1693
01:24:39,479 --> 01:24:42,439
Speaker 1: playing really well. Their offense is playing really well. Florida

1694
01:24:42,600 --> 01:24:45,880
Speaker 1: is going like this. They fired Dan Mullin. Will they

1695
01:24:45,920 --> 01:24:48,080
Speaker 1: show up for this game? I think both teams have

1696
01:24:48,200 --> 01:24:52,280
Speaker 1: five wins, right, both teams playing for Bowl eligibility? What

1697
01:24:52,439 --> 01:24:54,320
Speaker 1: will they? Who will show up? You would think that

1698
01:24:54,320 --> 01:24:57,600
Speaker 1: Florida State definitely is. They're trending up. Florida is a

1699
01:24:57,680 --> 01:25:00,559
Speaker 1: rivalry game. All these kids know each other's Florida Florida State.

1700
01:25:00,560 --> 01:25:02,880
Speaker 1: I think everyone's going to show up, and Florida is

1701
01:25:02,920 --> 01:25:05,440
Speaker 1: a much more talented team. But with a look aheadline

1702
01:25:05,439 --> 01:25:09,160
Speaker 1: for this, well, two touchdowns and now you're you're getting three,

1703
01:25:09,479 --> 01:25:13,040
Speaker 1: You're getting AR fifteen. Mullin is no longer there to

1704
01:25:13,080 --> 01:25:15,560
Speaker 1: hold him back. Hopefully emy Jon's okay. I think it

1705
01:25:15,600 --> 01:25:18,280
Speaker 1: towards ACL today, So I just think this is too low.

1706
01:25:18,360 --> 01:25:20,240
Speaker 1: This line's too low for the talent that Florida has.

1707
01:25:20,640 --> 01:25:22,000
Speaker 1: Maybe I'll try to get out if they get a

1708
01:25:22,040 --> 01:25:24,000
Speaker 1: lead and try to middle this because I hate you know,

1709
01:25:24,080 --> 01:25:26,000
Speaker 1: there's a lot of unknown with play calling and things

1710
01:25:26,000 --> 01:25:27,880
Speaker 1: of that nature. But I think there's too much due

1711
01:25:27,920 --> 01:25:30,479
Speaker 1: to pass up on Florida. But the line does know

1712
01:25:31,000 --> 01:25:31,800
Speaker 1: any thoughts.

1713
01:25:31,520 --> 01:25:35,519
Speaker 2: Then one agree with you. I'm on Florida. There. If

1714
01:25:35,560 --> 01:25:39,280
Speaker 2: you go through the playlog of Florida against Missouri, I

1715
01:25:39,320 --> 01:25:41,120
Speaker 2: don't want to come out and say that. I think

1716
01:25:41,240 --> 01:25:44,120
Speaker 2: Dan Mullen was trying to get fired, but he was

1717
01:25:44,200 --> 01:25:47,759
Speaker 2: doing There was some of the most odd play calls

1718
01:25:47,840 --> 01:25:50,599
Speaker 2: I've ever seen. It's almost as if he wanted the

1719
01:25:50,640 --> 01:25:54,679
Speaker 2: worst thing to happen. There's usage of timeouts, there's there's

1720
01:25:54,680 --> 01:25:56,880
Speaker 2: a whole sequence in the game. It's out there on Twitter.

1721
01:25:56,920 --> 01:25:59,280
Speaker 2: I've seen it floating around. I've actually seen a video

1722
01:25:59,360 --> 01:26:01,719
Speaker 2: of it. I think now that Dan Mullen has gone

1723
01:26:01,840 --> 01:26:04,240
Speaker 2: is a good thing for this program. Whoever the interim

1724
01:26:04,240 --> 01:26:06,479
Speaker 2: coach situation is. I don't think that adds to the value.

1725
01:26:06,520 --> 01:26:09,800
Speaker 2: But there is enough talent at Florida to cover and

1726
01:26:09,920 --> 01:26:13,240
Speaker 2: almost beat Alabama. It's not like the players are gone.

1727
01:26:13,439 --> 01:26:17,840
Speaker 2: Grant them forty days ago. Yeah, so way too much

1728
01:26:17,920 --> 01:26:21,640
Speaker 2: value on the Gators here, and that toxic environment just

1729
01:26:21,680 --> 01:26:23,559
Speaker 2: had all the cancer cut out of it. I expect

1730
01:26:23,560 --> 01:26:24,360
Speaker 2: the Gators to show up.

1731
01:26:24,720 --> 01:26:26,439
Speaker 1: Yep. I agree. All right, before we get out of here,

1732
01:26:26,520 --> 01:26:29,559
Speaker 1: let's go three and out.

1733
01:26:29,800 --> 01:26:31,960
Speaker 2: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1734
01:26:33,040 --> 01:26:37,080
Speaker 1: All right, let's start first down favorite overdog and moneyline

1735
01:26:37,160 --> 01:26:40,240
Speaker 1: underdog parlay. I'll start favorite overdog for those of the

1736
01:26:40,320 --> 01:26:44,200
Speaker 1: do that's just our favorite favorite the weekend one last time. October,

1737
01:26:44,240 --> 01:26:49,559
Speaker 1: Baby Rock November. It's almost b October. Iowa State with

1738
01:26:49,640 --> 01:26:54,200
Speaker 1: all those seniors against I know TCS five wins different coach.

1739
01:26:55,280 --> 01:26:58,040
Speaker 1: They've won their super Bowl against Baylor. They've checked out

1740
01:26:58,640 --> 01:27:01,439
Speaker 1: all those seniors at Iowa State. They haven't got a

1741
01:27:01,479 --> 01:27:03,720
Speaker 1: bounce all year long. They could have won almost every

1742
01:27:03,720 --> 01:27:06,040
Speaker 1: game that they lost. But I think they show up

1743
01:27:06,040 --> 01:27:09,560
Speaker 1: in names, and I think they put it on TCU.

1744
01:27:09,800 --> 01:27:11,720
Speaker 1: That's my favorite favorite.

1745
01:27:11,560 --> 01:27:13,720
Speaker 2: Overdog underdog for me. Is gonna be two teams that

1746
01:27:13,760 --> 01:27:16,240
Speaker 2: have been cashing for us, and we will continue to

1747
01:27:16,280 --> 01:27:19,519
Speaker 2: play them. Wyoming is almost a ten point favorite. You

1748
01:27:19,520 --> 01:27:21,360
Speaker 2: can find nine and a half around out there, going

1749
01:27:21,400 --> 01:27:23,960
Speaker 2: up against Hawaii. Hawaii team that needs this win to

1750
01:27:24,000 --> 01:27:26,400
Speaker 2: go to a bowl. They're coming to the mainland. They're

1751
01:27:26,400 --> 01:27:29,320
Speaker 2: going to go play in this altitude, and that is

1752
01:27:29,360 --> 01:27:32,639
Speaker 2: a really, really bad situation to try and get your fifth,

1753
01:27:32,880 --> 01:27:35,679
Speaker 2: your sixth win against Craig Bowl, who's now going bowling,

1754
01:27:35,720 --> 01:27:38,080
Speaker 2: but he's trying to add a little bit more to

1755
01:27:38,160 --> 01:27:40,880
Speaker 2: his plate. This is a Hawaii team that two weeks

1756
01:27:40,880 --> 01:27:44,840
Speaker 2: ago lost to UNLV and was given a turnover in

1757
01:27:44,880 --> 01:27:47,160
Speaker 2: that game. They lost twenty seven to thirteen to UNLV.

1758
01:27:47,479 --> 01:27:49,599
Speaker 2: They just had a shootout fifty to forty five against

1759
01:27:49,640 --> 01:27:54,160
Speaker 2: Colorado State, a team that Wyoming absolutely dominated. The odds

1760
01:27:54,200 --> 01:27:56,840
Speaker 2: makers and the market cannot catch up to what Craig

1761
01:27:56,880 --> 01:27:59,840
Speaker 2: Bowl is doing with this Wyoming program. This is a

1762
01:28:00,160 --> 01:28:01,960
Speaker 2: I had a season win total over and they're just

1763
01:28:02,000 --> 01:28:05,759
Speaker 2: now getting hot. So Wyoming's not had issues with Hawaii

1764
01:28:05,760 --> 01:28:07,280
Speaker 2: in the past. I expect them to role here.

1765
01:28:07,680 --> 01:28:14,760
Speaker 1: As far as my favorite underdog money line turning good

1766
01:28:14,800 --> 01:28:20,360
Speaker 1: weekends into great weekends, it's time for the money line parlay.

1767
01:28:21,960 --> 01:28:26,080
Speaker 1: I am going to go with our boy Steve Dazio,

1768
01:28:26,240 --> 01:28:28,720
Speaker 1: Colorado State against Nevada.

1769
01:28:29,160 --> 01:28:32,040
Speaker 2: What's better than this, Guys being dudes.

1770
01:28:32,200 --> 01:28:35,200
Speaker 1: Look, I chow value in this number. Nevada's got to

1771
01:28:35,240 --> 01:28:38,439
Speaker 1: be deflated. They're playing for nothing. Had an outside shot

1772
01:28:38,479 --> 01:28:42,280
Speaker 1: before losing in triple overtimed Air Force of the Conference championship.

1773
01:28:42,280 --> 01:28:45,120
Speaker 1: That's the second straight deflating losses that they've had. Now

1774
01:28:45,120 --> 01:28:46,759
Speaker 1: they're going on the road to Colorado State. They already

1775
01:28:46,800 --> 01:28:49,720
Speaker 1: have seven wins. Carson Strong had some knee issues. He's

1776
01:28:49,720 --> 01:28:53,200
Speaker 1: been limping around a little bit. Don't be surprised to

1777
01:28:53,240 --> 01:28:56,600
Speaker 1: see here some of the pros sit on Saturday. I

1778
01:28:56,600 --> 01:28:58,400
Speaker 1: show value the number of regardless of colors, say be

1779
01:28:58,439 --> 01:29:01,200
Speaker 1: able to with the ball on the ground here and

1780
01:29:01,640 --> 01:29:02,959
Speaker 1: I like the Rams.

1781
01:29:03,000 --> 01:29:05,759
Speaker 2: How about you, underdog, I've already said it. North Texas

1782
01:29:05,800 --> 01:29:09,559
Speaker 2: Sethlatrell is playing. Yeah, I mean he is playing for

1783
01:29:09,640 --> 01:29:12,160
Speaker 2: a paycheck. He needs to put food on the table.

1784
01:29:12,200 --> 01:29:15,479
Speaker 2: In Denton, Texas utsa believe it or not, one of

1785
01:29:15,520 --> 01:29:18,200
Speaker 2: the worst second order win totals in the nation. Souck.

1786
01:29:18,280 --> 01:29:20,040
Speaker 2: He called them a fraud, and I started doing some

1787
01:29:20,080 --> 01:29:23,600
Speaker 2: research on it. This team is ten and oh, but

1788
01:29:23,640 --> 01:29:26,240
Speaker 2: they're more like a seven win team postgame.

1789
01:29:26,160 --> 01:29:28,880
Speaker 1: Praer wins and then they played like nobody's.

1790
01:29:28,600 --> 01:29:31,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know their post game win expectancy if

1791
01:29:31,520 --> 01:29:33,559
Speaker 2: you accumulate all that up it's not even close to

1792
01:29:33,600 --> 01:29:35,760
Speaker 2: ten wins. It's more around seven, a little bit less.

1793
01:29:35,800 --> 01:29:38,160
Speaker 2: So there's a North Texas team that is hungary. This

1794
01:29:38,200 --> 01:29:40,320
Speaker 2: is a UTSA team that has overlooked to a conference

1795
01:29:40,400 --> 01:29:43,760
Speaker 2: championship game that they will host. So no interest in

1796
01:29:43,760 --> 01:29:45,760
Speaker 2: this game whatsoever. I think North Texas wins out.

1797
01:29:45,680 --> 01:29:50,400
Speaker 1: Right, all right. Second down, our favorite Friday bet, Boise State.

1798
01:29:50,439 --> 01:29:53,960
Speaker 1: I don't think the market is accounting for how much

1799
01:29:54,120 --> 01:29:58,120
Speaker 1: better this defense has been alos after the buye made

1800
01:29:58,120 --> 01:30:01,000
Speaker 1: some personnel changes. They've started the ground the scheme into

1801
01:30:01,040 --> 01:30:04,920
Speaker 1: your defensive line. It's healthy. This defense is rolling. Their

1802
01:30:04,960 --> 01:30:07,400
Speaker 1: offense can make a few more plays than the San

1803
01:30:07,439 --> 01:30:10,720
Speaker 1: Diego State offense. Two great special teams units. Then nine

1804
01:30:10,800 --> 01:30:15,240
Speaker 1: AM game in Carson, California. Practically no home field advantage.

1805
01:30:15,479 --> 01:30:18,759
Speaker 1: San Diego State has gotten away with so many close wins,

1806
01:30:19,200 --> 01:30:21,680
Speaker 1: a couple in multiple overtime. They're six to oh one

1807
01:30:21,720 --> 01:30:24,960
Speaker 1: possession games catches up to them here. Boise State gets

1808
01:30:25,000 --> 01:30:28,000
Speaker 1: it done, Broncos, keep it rolling. Hell, are you a

1809
01:30:28,040 --> 01:30:28,920
Speaker 1: favorite bet on Friday?

1810
01:30:29,200 --> 01:30:32,719
Speaker 2: Yeah? Friday, We're gonna go to my hometown of Fable, Arkansas,

1811
01:30:32,720 --> 01:30:35,000
Speaker 2: and we're gonna bet on Arkansas in the first half.

1812
01:30:35,040 --> 01:30:36,920
Speaker 2: This is a game that's moved from fourteen up to

1813
01:30:36,920 --> 01:30:40,760
Speaker 2: sixteen for the full game. Arkansas consistently shows up and

1814
01:30:40,840 --> 01:30:44,880
Speaker 2: scores early and often in games. Is a very physical,

1815
01:30:45,439 --> 01:30:49,000
Speaker 2: rush dominated offensive attack. The Missouri is just not gonna

1816
01:30:49,000 --> 01:30:51,120
Speaker 2: be ready for whatsoever. Missouri team that may be on

1817
01:30:51,200 --> 01:30:54,160
Speaker 2: hangover from getting Dan Mullen fired and winning their sixth

1818
01:30:54,200 --> 01:30:57,280
Speaker 2: game of the season and making a bowl. Keep in mind,

1819
01:30:57,600 --> 01:31:00,880
Speaker 2: Missouri's bowl game last year was canceled. These kids under

1820
01:31:01,040 --> 01:31:03,920
Speaker 2: drink Witz have not been to postseason play because of

1821
01:31:03,920 --> 01:31:07,000
Speaker 2: a COVID nineteen cancelation last year. So a lot of

1822
01:31:07,000 --> 01:31:09,640
Speaker 2: big partying going on to Columbia. Tough trip down for

1823
01:31:09,680 --> 01:31:12,599
Speaker 2: the Battle Line Trophy, a game that Arkansas is heavily

1824
01:31:12,640 --> 01:31:15,080
Speaker 2: motivated to win because they've only won once since this

1825
01:31:15,160 --> 01:31:19,040
Speaker 2: trophy was created since twenty fifteen. Missouri does not have

1826
01:31:19,080 --> 01:31:22,439
Speaker 2: the defensive tools to push kJ Jefferson into passing downs.

1827
01:31:22,560 --> 01:31:24,240
Speaker 2: They do not have the secondary to keep up with

1828
01:31:24,280 --> 01:31:27,240
Speaker 2: Traylon Burks. Arkansas is going to roll in this game,

1829
01:31:27,280 --> 01:31:29,360
Speaker 2: and they're going to get started early because of the

1830
01:31:29,360 --> 01:31:34,439
Speaker 2: hangover effect on Missouri. Arkansas first half and one test.

1831
01:31:34,680 --> 01:31:37,679
Speaker 1: One remaining test for the week twelve College Flaill Betting preview.

1832
01:31:38,000 --> 01:31:41,000
Speaker 1: That's our favorite Saturday bat. I'm going with Boston College

1833
01:31:41,040 --> 01:31:43,759
Speaker 1: plus four and a half at home against wake Forest.

1834
01:31:43,800 --> 01:31:46,840
Speaker 1: This is the game I make under one. I think

1835
01:31:46,880 --> 01:31:49,840
Speaker 1: wake Forest's defensive issues have been exposed over the past

1836
01:31:49,920 --> 01:31:52,280
Speaker 1: couple weeks. When you make Clemson's offense look good, you

1837
01:31:52,400 --> 01:31:55,519
Speaker 1: got major problems. Anyone and everyone can move the ball

1838
01:31:55,560 --> 01:31:57,559
Speaker 1: up and down the field, especially on the ground, which

1839
01:31:57,560 --> 01:31:59,479
Speaker 1: PC likes to do. And hey, when PC wants to

1840
01:31:59,520 --> 01:32:02,719
Speaker 1: throw it, they got a future stchal NFL quarterback back

1841
01:32:03,080 --> 01:32:05,559
Speaker 1: in Phil Jerkovic. He can make some explosive places. Look,

1842
01:32:05,600 --> 01:32:08,600
Speaker 1: Wake's going to get their points, they always will, But

1843
01:32:09,000 --> 01:32:11,720
Speaker 1: Boston College does have a pretty good pass defense that

1844
01:32:11,760 --> 01:32:15,040
Speaker 1: I think can get some key stops here. This number

1845
01:32:15,120 --> 01:32:18,760
Speaker 1: is just inflated, and I think it's going to come

1846
01:32:18,800 --> 01:32:20,400
Speaker 1: right down to the wire. Wouldn't shock me to see

1847
01:32:20,439 --> 01:32:24,200
Speaker 1: another wake Forest field goal game, but I think BC

1848
01:32:24,439 --> 01:32:26,559
Speaker 1: might get it done this time. Give me the Eagles.

1849
01:32:26,840 --> 01:32:28,240
Speaker 1: Where are you going for your favorite side event?

1850
01:32:28,479 --> 01:32:30,040
Speaker 2: Tay any of the Iron Bowl? I'm going to take

1851
01:32:30,040 --> 01:32:33,519
Speaker 2: a first half over in Alabama and Auburn. This is

1852
01:32:34,040 --> 01:32:36,400
Speaker 2: Brian Harrison is under a lot of fire for his

1853
01:32:36,439 --> 01:32:40,920
Speaker 2: play calling against South Carolina. He consistently scores points early

1854
01:32:40,960 --> 01:32:44,320
Speaker 2: with offensive coordinator Mike Bobo fourteen points in the first

1855
01:32:44,400 --> 01:32:46,640
Speaker 2: quarter against South Carolina and then three points for the

1856
01:32:46,680 --> 01:32:49,080
Speaker 2: rest of the game. This has been something that's happened

1857
01:32:49,200 --> 01:32:52,880
Speaker 2: for their whole entire season, where Auburn it gets points

1858
01:32:52,960 --> 01:32:56,280
Speaker 2: up early, defense is aust and then they shut Auburn down.

1859
01:32:56,560 --> 01:32:58,400
Speaker 2: And while I don't want to have anything to do

1860
01:32:58,479 --> 01:33:01,040
Speaker 2: with an Alabama points spread that is inflated by an

1861
01:33:01,160 --> 01:33:04,000
Speaker 2: entire touchdown, I do think a first half over is

1862
01:33:04,040 --> 01:33:07,360
Speaker 2: in play because the script that Harson builds often works.

1863
01:33:07,400 --> 01:33:09,720
Speaker 2: Now on the Alabama side, they're going to be able

1864
01:33:09,760 --> 01:33:12,320
Speaker 2: to pick apart and Auburn defense that is just crumbling,

1865
01:33:12,520 --> 01:33:14,880
Speaker 2: especially when you look at what South Carolina did. South

1866
01:33:14,920 --> 01:33:16,960
Speaker 2: Carolina was able to come back against Auburn because they

1867
01:33:16,960 --> 01:33:19,600
Speaker 2: were able to avoid Roger McCreary and Smoke Monday in

1868
01:33:19,640 --> 01:33:22,120
Speaker 2: the secondary and pick apart the rest of the defense

1869
01:33:22,400 --> 01:33:25,840
Speaker 2: that's now on tape for Bill O'Brien, offensive coordinator of Alabama,

1870
01:33:25,880 --> 01:33:28,400
Speaker 2: and for Nick Saban, and you can bet that Bryce Young,

1871
01:33:28,600 --> 01:33:31,280
Speaker 2: who is as accurate and competing for a Heisman Trophy,

1872
01:33:31,479 --> 01:33:34,400
Speaker 2: will find his spots, there will be plenty of explosive plays,

1873
01:33:34,800 --> 01:33:36,559
Speaker 2: and this is a spot where there's just gonna be

1874
01:33:36,560 --> 01:33:38,120
Speaker 2: a lot of points in the Iron Bowl to start

1875
01:33:38,160 --> 01:33:40,840
Speaker 2: off before Alabama makes adjustments on both sides of the

1876
01:33:40,880 --> 01:33:43,840
Speaker 2: ball and takes complete control. But I do like lots

1877
01:33:43,840 --> 01:33:45,519
Speaker 2: of points to be scored in the first half of

1878
01:33:45,560 --> 01:33:46,120
Speaker 2: the Iron Bowl.

1879
01:33:47,000 --> 01:33:49,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, Auburn's Super Bowl too, and their kickers are so

1880
01:33:49,400 --> 01:33:51,800
Speaker 1: you could see them going fourth downs. You probably will

1881
01:33:51,800 --> 01:33:54,479
Speaker 1: see trick plays here the whole nine yards. All right,

1882
01:33:54,520 --> 01:33:57,840
Speaker 1: that'll do it for us. Thanks as always for joining me, Colin,

1883
01:33:57,880 --> 01:34:03,479
Speaker 1: Thanks everyone for listening. We appreciate your support. What a

1884
01:34:03,520 --> 01:34:06,800
Speaker 1: weekend we have coming up, and then you know, we

1885
01:34:06,880 --> 01:34:09,920
Speaker 1: have conference championships and bowl season. What a time to

1886
01:34:09,960 --> 01:34:12,720
Speaker 1: be alive. Excited to experience it with all of you

1887
01:34:12,800 --> 01:34:18,040
Speaker 1: and hopefully can bring you lots of winners. Enjoy your holidays,

1888
01:34:18,520 --> 01:34:21,840
Speaker 1: Happy Thanksgiving. Will we will catch you on Twitter. Make

1889
01:34:21,880 --> 01:34:25,320
Speaker 1: sure by the way you subscribe, unsubscribe, tell a friend,

1890
01:34:25,320 --> 01:34:29,160
Speaker 1: tell an enemy, subscribe again. Leave a five star review

1891
01:34:29,280 --> 01:34:32,080
Speaker 1: really helps us out. We'll do giveaways next week on

1892
01:34:32,160 --> 01:34:35,880
Speaker 1: the Recap episode nine to five nine Bad Beat. If

1893
01:34:35,920 --> 01:34:37,720
Speaker 1: you need to call in and yell about anything over

1894
01:34:37,760 --> 01:34:40,519
Speaker 1: the weekend. South Carolina fans, y'all about Colin. If you

1895
01:34:40,520 --> 01:34:43,880
Speaker 1: want big Bets on campus Live Friday morning, ten thirty

1896
01:34:43,920 --> 01:34:47,479
Speaker 1: am Eastern. Saturday morning, ten thirty am Eastern, myself, Colin,

1897
01:34:47,560 --> 01:34:51,519
Speaker 1: and brettmcmurphy. We'll share our favorite bets of the day

1898
01:34:51,600 --> 01:34:53,679
Speaker 1: and go through a couple of the Marquee games. Thanks

1899
01:34:53,720 --> 01:34:56,720
Speaker 1: for listening again, We'll catch all inter Cheers, peace out,