WEBVTT - Why UK Bosses Need More Skin in The Game

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Hello, it's Meren Somerset Web. Here a reminder. I will

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<v Speaker 2>be at the Fringe Festival in Edinburgh once again this year,

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<v Speaker 2>hosting four full days of riveting conversations in Adam Smith's

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<v Speaker 2>Pannier House. I'll be there from August the seventeenth to

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<v Speaker 2>August the twentieth. Tickets are now on sale. They are

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<v Speaker 2>going fast. Of course they're going fast. They'll be sold

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<v Speaker 2>out quickly. Links will be in the show notes, but

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<v Speaker 2>you can also just head the main Fridge website and

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<v Speaker 2>search for Mirren. They'll see the availability and you can

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<v Speaker 2>buy tickets hurry. Plus more information about this amazing venue

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<v Speaker 2>and what we will be discussing right onto this week's show.

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<v Speaker 2>My guest has Lead maida founder and managing partner of

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<v Speaker 2>Gatemore Capital Management. We talk about why he thinks the

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<v Speaker 2>cost of capital is the key issue facing UK equities

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<v Speaker 2>and why he thinks the Great British Buyout is going

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<v Speaker 2>to save the equity market. But first, as always, senior

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<v Speaker 2>border and author of the Money Distilled newsletter, John Steppik

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<v Speaker 2>is here with me. John.

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<v Speaker 1>Hello, Hello man.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, so I'm going to preface this conversation by saying

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<v Speaker 2>to our listeners, this sounds boring, but there's something John

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<v Speaker 2>and I are going to talk about and it's not boring.

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<v Speaker 2>It's incredibly important. Willie Gazad is boring and important, boring

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<v Speaker 2>but important. But I think it's not boring and also

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<v Speaker 2>very important John, It's important, right.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and it's actually pretty interesting once you get the

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<v Speaker 1>guts of it. Yeah, because it's all about pensions.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, now then now everyone's turned off, everyone's moved on

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<v Speaker 2>to another podcast. Pensions are not boring. Pensions are very interesting.

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<v Speaker 2>And this is a key issue that has been affecting

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<v Speaker 2>the pensions market, being affecting the balance sheets of big

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<v Speaker 2>UK companies and being affecting the UK equity market for

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<v Speaker 2>decades now, right, and it's coming to an end. John

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<v Speaker 2>tell us about it.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, this is the new is that define benefit pension schemes.

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<v Speaker 1>So the ones private sector ones, one's run by companies,

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<v Speaker 1>ones that you can't be a member of anymore, unless

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<v Speaker 1>I think you want for CRODA, which is one foot

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<v Speaker 1>Sea two five, the company which still has a defined

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<v Speaker 1>benefit pension scheme, could be wrong with that. I'll double check,

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<v Speaker 1>but have your kids apply there exactly.

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<v Speaker 2>See if they've got an apprenticeship schame or an intern's

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<v Speaker 2>game or a graduate schame, do anything for deba.

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<v Speaker 1>I've already checked. No, So these funds right up. People

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<v Speaker 1>kept talking about how there's a pensions black ho massively

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<v Speaker 1>in deficit for years and years and years. Now the

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<v Speaker 1>interest rates have gone up, thanks obviously to Litz Trust,

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<v Speaker 1>they're now in surplus because.

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<v Speaker 2>You have to stop doing that.

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<v Speaker 1>No, sorry, I can't help myself, not Lizzy's fault. So

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<v Speaker 1>interest rates went up and that means that basically the

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<v Speaker 1>future liabilities, so the money that they owe the pensils

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<v Speaker 1>in the future. That number is big when interest rates

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<v Speaker 1>at zero percent, and as interest rates go up, that

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<v Speaker 1>number gets smaller. So it means you need less money

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<v Speaker 1>in the pot today to pay off your pensioners tomorrow.

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<v Speaker 1>It's probably the easiest way to think about it, and

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<v Speaker 1>that's why those schemes are now in subtless.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, let's just go back to why. When they were

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<v Speaker 2>in deficit, everyone's going, oh my god, all these these

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<v Speaker 2>British companies, they've got these huge deficits. Poor old pensioners.

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<v Speaker 2>Everyone has to put more money in so constant pressureund

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<v Speaker 2>the company is to take big junks of what would

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<v Speaker 2>be profits and slew them off into their pension funds

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<v Speaker 2>to pay for pensions far into the future. It's a

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<v Speaker 2>big drag on profitability.

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<v Speaker 1>Money, real money because the future liabilities. I think that probably,

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<v Speaker 1>I guess this is important to understand as well. Was

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<v Speaker 1>obviously a number in the future is uncertain, so it's

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<v Speaker 1>based on the theoretical value. But the theoretical value translates

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<v Speaker 1>into something you need to take actual practical action on today.

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<v Speaker 1>So you need you felt that deficit, and it has

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<v Speaker 1>to come from real cash that's coming into the company

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<v Speaker 1>at that point. So yeah, absolutely, as you're saying, it's

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<v Speaker 1>been a massive drag going money that could have been

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<v Speaker 1>invested elsewhere are or paid out to no employees and wages,

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<v Speaker 1>et cetera, et cetera.

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<v Speaker 2>I remember writing a colum a little while ago. Okay,

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<v Speaker 2>it damn like distraction alert showing that wages at companies

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<v Speaker 2>with big pension deficits rose at a slower rate than

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<v Speaker 2>companies without them, So at a genuine real world effects

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<v Speaker 2>not on profitability but on the earnings of people working

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<v Speaker 2>for these companies. So big deal across the board.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, absolutely huge. And what is interesting because the first

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<v Speaker 1>time I wrote about this because this is they're now

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<v Speaker 1>recorded the record suplus in May. But obviously that the

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<v Speaker 1>supplus came about earlier in the year and it was

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<v Speaker 1>one fifty company. I noticed that it was Coats that

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<v Speaker 1>had actually been able to basically stop topping up is

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<v Speaker 1>to find benefit pension scheme and it's sheer place went

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<v Speaker 1>up on that news. So this is something that's a

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<v Speaker 1>real world right now. Absolutely you know that this is

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<v Speaker 1>really important and it has an effect.

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<v Speaker 2>We did write, didn't we Quite a long time ago.

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<v Speaker 2>We wrote a couple of columns saying when interest rates

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<v Speaker 2>go up by companies that have theoretical pension deficits, because

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<v Speaker 2>their share press will go up. And look, we were right.

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<v Speaker 1>Basically right, we were We told you so, we told

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<v Speaker 1>you anyway, So okay, So matters for individual companies, but

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<v Speaker 1>there's also a bigger effect. So one of the reasons

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<v Speaker 1>that UK capital markets or UK equity markets specifically have

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<v Speaker 1>had this kind of drag on them for so long

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<v Speaker 1>isn't just all of the you know, stuff that's happened

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<v Speaker 1>kind of like recent years. It's also because the rules

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<v Speaker 1>around pensions got tightened up so much. Well, it basically

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<v Speaker 1>meant was that define benefit pension schemes run by companies

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<v Speaker 1>shifted all of their money out of equities into bonds,

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<v Speaker 1>and they also shifted their equity allocation out of UK equities.

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<v Speaker 1>At one point it was something, I mean, they're probably

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<v Speaker 1>too much in UK equities at one point like something

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<v Speaker 1>like seventy percent. Now is down to three percent. So

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<v Speaker 1>the amount of UK equities held by find benefit pension

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<v Speaker 1>funds has collapsed and that has been a constant drag

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<v Speaker 1>of outflows for years and years and years. Now. The

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<v Speaker 1>point being about the fact they've got a subplus now

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<v Speaker 1>is that A, you know this this is now fixed

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<v Speaker 1>so they don't have to change the portfolio allocation anymore.

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<v Speaker 1>And B when it's already down at three percent, there

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<v Speaker 1>is no you know, there's no further drag. Yeah, it's

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<v Speaker 1>kind of exhausted. So that big sort of selling structural set,

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<v Speaker 1>that structural selling force is now gone. And even that

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<v Speaker 1>just vanishing doesn't need to be replaced.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the removal of a negative is effectively a positively.

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<v Speaker 1>But then on top of that, you've got a positive

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<v Speaker 1>coming in for hey, because you're obviously wondering now, But

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<v Speaker 1>what happened when all these define benefit pension schemes closed,

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<v Speaker 1>and of course they get replaced with define contribution schemes.

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<v Speaker 1>We define contribution schemes are the ones would you save

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<v Speaker 1>the money? And the plot is what you get at

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<v Speaker 1>the end, and what's in it is your problem basically,

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<v Speaker 1>And if.

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<v Speaker 2>You are in an order enrollment schame, which if you're

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<v Speaker 2>in work in the UK, you almost suddenly oh that's

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<v Speaker 2>what you have, yes.

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<v Speaker 1>So you've got an auto enrollment pension. So what was

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<v Speaker 1>happening now is companies aren't putting money and they they'd

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<v Speaker 1>find benefits schames anymore or not as much, and they

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<v Speaker 1>are putting increasing numbers amounts of money into the auto

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<v Speaker 1>enrollment schemes. And the other interesting thing is that in

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<v Speaker 1>the year to me, the amount of money going into

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<v Speaker 1>the auto enrollment schemes overtook the amount of money going

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<v Speaker 1>into dB schemes. And actually I was quite surprised. This

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<v Speaker 1>is the first time that's happened. So again that sort

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<v Speaker 1>of shows you just what a drag the dB schemes

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<v Speaker 1>have been, because it's mostly because companies like the amount

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<v Speaker 1>of money going into the auto enrollment schemes went up

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<v Speaker 1>at roughly the same rate it has been going up

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<v Speaker 1>for years. The dB money collapsed because they don't need

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<v Speaker 1>to put it in anymore. And the fact that you've

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<v Speaker 1>got this turn around now, so basically you don't have

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<v Speaker 1>to mess around your dB scheme anymore, and ever increasing

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<v Speaker 1>amounts of money are going into the auto enrollment and

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<v Speaker 1>that means that some of that money will be an

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<v Speaker 1>inflow for UK markets if you like. So, yeah, you've

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<v Speaker 1>get one structural headwind has been removed and a structural

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<v Speaker 1>tail wind is coming up to you child gidding.

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<v Speaker 2>Here he go. It's all about the floors. Okay, So

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<v Speaker 2>this is all very positive for the UK market.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah it should be.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and vere with a dB pension which looks like

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<v Speaker 2>it is going to keep being paid out, John, thank you,

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<v Speaker 2>And I think amazingly that was not boring at all.

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<v Speaker 2>It was absolutely fascinating and by the way, everyone, it

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<v Speaker 2>is very important. Pensions are important and interesting. Welcome to

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<v Speaker 2>Maren Talks Money, the podcast in which people who know

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<v Speaker 2>the markets explain the markets. I'm Maren zumzat web. Here's

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<v Speaker 2>my conversation with lead maida founder and managing partner of

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<v Speaker 2>Gatemore Capital Management lead. Thank you so much for joining

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<v Speaker 2>us today. I really appreciate it.

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<v Speaker 3>Thank you for having me.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, listen, you and I are on the same page

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<v Speaker 2>with a couple of things here, right. We both family

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<v Speaker 2>believe that the UK market is grotesquely undervalued and has

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<v Speaker 2>been for some time. But I think your thoughts around

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<v Speaker 2>why that is and why it might change are slightly

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<v Speaker 2>different to some other people in the market. So talk

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<v Speaker 2>me through that.

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<v Speaker 3>Sure. Well, Well, I think a lot of the commentary

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<v Speaker 3>and and you know, regulators and people in the city

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<v Speaker 3>are looking for answers in the wrong places and in

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<v Speaker 3>many ways, you know, they're looking for new regulation in

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<v Speaker 3>ways of in a sense, manipulating the market to try

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<v Speaker 3>to get whether it's retail investors and institutional investors to

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<v Speaker 3>buy more UK equities. I mean, I fundamentally believe that

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<v Speaker 3>UK equities need to stand on their own right and

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<v Speaker 3>compete on their own right globally for capital. And I

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<v Speaker 3>think the answers to that really lie in deregulation in

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<v Speaker 3>many ways, not adding new layers of regulation. I think

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<v Speaker 3>the extent that people have been exploring opportunities to deregulate,

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<v Speaker 3>it's around listing requirements and things that are really incremental

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<v Speaker 3>around the edges. Good ideas, many of them, but I

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<v Speaker 3>just don't think are going to really solve the fundamental problem.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, So what is the fundamental problem? What is the

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<v Speaker 2>problem here?

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<v Speaker 3>You know, we've got great fundamental the fundamental.

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<v Speaker 2>Economy, isn't that all? Well, nothing is that bad here.

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<v Speaker 2>I may have a little of political instability, but goodness me,

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<v Speaker 2>look over to France, right, I mean, you know it's

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<v Speaker 2>not not so bad, right, companies are good. Economy looks Okay,

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<v Speaker 2>what is the problem.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, there are some some long term challenges for the

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<v Speaker 3>UK economy around productivity, but that is not the core

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<v Speaker 3>driver of the gap and valuation. The bottom line is

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<v Speaker 3>that the core issue is, at the end of the

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<v Speaker 3>day twofold. One is to do with the takeover code

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<v Speaker 3>and the second is to do with how board members

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<v Speaker 3>are incentivized. You know, I think that if you look

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<v Speaker 3>at the difference the fundamental difference between UK equity markets

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<v Speaker 3>in the US, those I think are the two that

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<v Speaker 3>you know that that really have the biggest way in

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<v Speaker 3>terms of driving the valuation gap. Starting really with with

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<v Speaker 3>with the second point around director and sative. This is

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<v Speaker 3>something that we've been very vocal about. In fact, we

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<v Speaker 3>published a public letter for company recently that really highlighted

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<v Speaker 3>this point. You know, in the US, when you join

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<v Speaker 3>the board of directors, you are expected to go into

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<v Speaker 3>your pocket and buy somewhere between three to five times

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<v Speaker 3>your annual fees in the stock. And whether you do

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<v Speaker 3>that upfront or over the course of your tenure, that's

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<v Speaker 3>the expectation, and people indeed do that. In the UK

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<v Speaker 3>you have nothing like that. The expectation is minimal. You know,

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<v Speaker 3>you see directors buying very little stock and the in fact,

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<v Speaker 3>the UK Governance Code discourages companies from incentivizing directors with equity.

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<v Speaker 3>And so what you have is a situation where there's

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<v Speaker 3>this concept in the UK of you know, of independence,

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<v Speaker 3>where the real term for it is disinterested. You know,

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<v Speaker 3>these are not just independent directors, these are disinterested directors.

0:11:51.920 --> 0:11:55.800
<v Speaker 3>And so when it's time to explore situations like uh,

0:11:56.320 --> 0:12:01.040
<v Speaker 3>you know, acquisitions, selling the business, uh, you know, that's

0:12:01.240 --> 0:12:03.719
<v Speaker 3>real work for directors. And at the end of that

0:12:03.840 --> 0:12:07.959
<v Speaker 3>work they lose their roles, they lose their the fees

0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:11.400
<v Speaker 3>associated with their directorship, and there's very little upside for them.

0:12:11.800 --> 0:12:15.439
<v Speaker 3>And so really there's a fundamental lack of alignment between

0:12:15.600 --> 0:12:16.679
<v Speaker 3>directors and shawolders.

0:12:17.040 --> 0:12:19.840
<v Speaker 2>Okay, interesting, So you're talking about the general board of directors,

0:12:19.880 --> 0:12:23.120
<v Speaker 2>but if we look at a CEO pay, now are

0:12:23.120 --> 0:12:27.640
<v Speaker 2>you including that in this as well? That incentivized in

0:12:27.720 --> 0:12:30.520
<v Speaker 2>the same way, Because we talk about this a lot,

0:12:30.600 --> 0:12:33.880
<v Speaker 2>and you say, well, what difference should the pay as

0:12:33.880 --> 0:12:36.600
<v Speaker 2>a CEO make valuations less?

0:12:36.600 --> 0:12:40.439
<v Speaker 3>So I think CEOs more often will have equity incentives.

0:12:40.920 --> 0:12:43.920
<v Speaker 3>But generally, what I would say is that the UK

0:12:44.040 --> 0:12:47.000
<v Speaker 3>markets now got a reputation for underpaying CEOs and it

0:12:47.080 --> 0:12:49.240
<v Speaker 3>makes it harder to attract the top talents. So I

0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:51.319
<v Speaker 3>think as a result of that, you actually have a

0:12:51.360 --> 0:12:55.079
<v Speaker 3>situation where we have, you know, a less talented pool

0:12:55.120 --> 0:12:59.840
<v Speaker 3>of CEOs running UK listened companies. And yeah, that that

0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:01.960
<v Speaker 3>drive some of the valuation gap itself as well.

0:13:02.960 --> 0:13:07.880
<v Speaker 2>Interesting. So one of the fixes for the UK, which

0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:10.160
<v Speaker 2>is not a quick fix obviously, but you think could

0:13:10.200 --> 0:13:15.200
<v Speaker 2>be a longer term fixes to align not just executive management,

0:13:15.280 --> 0:13:18.840
<v Speaker 2>but all directors executive and non executive, with shareholder and

0:13:18.880 --> 0:13:22.320
<v Speaker 2>trust by effectively forcing them into some kind of equity

0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:23.679
<v Speaker 2>holding or awarding.

0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:27.760
<v Speaker 3>Yes, I think I think non executive directors should be

0:13:27.760 --> 0:13:30.600
<v Speaker 3>owning a lot more stock in the UK than they do,

0:13:30.640 --> 0:13:33.240
<v Speaker 3>and I think if you look at the numbers, you know,

0:13:34.440 --> 0:13:38.120
<v Speaker 3>US directors tend to own many multiples of stock in

0:13:38.160 --> 0:13:41.560
<v Speaker 3>the company compared to UK directors, And there is a

0:13:41.760 --> 0:13:45.800
<v Speaker 3>fundamentally different notion of governance of what is good governance

0:13:46.000 --> 0:13:49.880
<v Speaker 3>between the two markets. In the US, having that alignment

0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:53.840
<v Speaker 3>is deemed good governance appropriate governance. In the UK, there's

0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:56.680
<v Speaker 3>kind of this idea that like serving on a corporate

0:13:56.679 --> 0:13:59.200
<v Speaker 3>board is like some kind of noble pursuit, like working

0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:01.920
<v Speaker 3>for a nonprofit or something like that, and it's the

0:14:01.960 --> 0:14:03.720
<v Speaker 3>farthest thing from the truth. I mean, you know, you

0:14:03.760 --> 0:14:07.720
<v Speaker 3>are you know, shareholder primacy still exists. It needs to

0:14:07.800 --> 0:14:11.880
<v Speaker 3>exist for an equity market to function well. And you know,

0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:14.040
<v Speaker 3>the directors are there to make sure that they can

0:14:14.080 --> 0:14:17.000
<v Speaker 3>maximize shareholder value, and I think that they need to

0:14:17.040 --> 0:14:19.160
<v Speaker 3>be aligned with shareholders. I mean, I can't tell you

0:14:19.160 --> 0:14:24.080
<v Speaker 3>how many situations we've seen where shareholders are extraordinarily frustrated

0:14:24.080 --> 0:14:28.280
<v Speaker 3>at directors and it just seems like the board is

0:14:28.440 --> 0:14:31.000
<v Speaker 3>ignoring the demands. And you know, when you think about

0:14:31.000 --> 0:14:34.240
<v Speaker 3>the setup, it's very clear why. You know, because at

0:14:34.240 --> 0:14:36.240
<v Speaker 3>the end of the day. The sale of the business

0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:40.200
<v Speaker 3>or selling a division or moving a listing from the

0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:44.000
<v Speaker 3>UK to the US means they're losing their roles and

0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:46.400
<v Speaker 3>they're not interested in that, and.

0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:47.720
<v Speaker 2>It's an awful lot of work as well. It's interesting.

0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:48.960
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I do quite a lot of the investment

0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:52.680
<v Speaker 2>trust industry, and this is one area where there's often

0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:55.560
<v Speaker 2>a conversation about the extent to which directors should or

0:14:55.560 --> 0:14:59.000
<v Speaker 2>shouldn't hold stakes in the investment trust and in the

0:14:59.040 --> 0:15:02.000
<v Speaker 2>main directors, it's expected when you go on board that

0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:04.760
<v Speaker 2>you buy some equity, and there's a report that comes

0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:06.800
<v Speaker 2>out every year Skin in the Game, which lists the

0:15:06.880 --> 0:15:10.360
<v Speaker 2>directors of every investment trust and lists how much they own.

0:15:10.960 --> 0:15:14.320
<v Speaker 2>But more recently there's been a conversation about the extent

0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:19.520
<v Speaker 2>that you can expect new directors to buy significant equity

0:15:20.120 --> 0:15:24.960
<v Speaker 2>stakes if you're also looking for a diverse board of directors,

0:15:24.960 --> 0:15:27.120
<v Speaker 2>if you're looking for younger people or people who haven't

0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:30.840
<v Speaker 2>necessarily had many board roles before who aren't in a

0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:34.400
<v Speaker 2>position to buy. So that's one of the conflicts around

0:15:34.560 --> 0:15:38.560
<v Speaker 2>expecting directors to make a financial contribution on being employed.

0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:41.880
<v Speaker 3>That's understood, it needs to be taken into consideration. But

0:15:42.360 --> 0:15:44.880
<v Speaker 3>you know, it's not to say that only affluent people

0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:49.000
<v Speaker 3>should be serving on boards, but there's a very easy

0:15:49.000 --> 0:15:52.680
<v Speaker 3>accommodation which includes allowing them to buy the stock over time,

0:15:52.760 --> 0:15:55.440
<v Speaker 3>over the course of their tenure. So it's really it's

0:15:55.480 --> 0:15:59.040
<v Speaker 3>effectively rolling your fees into the stock. And if you

0:15:59.080 --> 0:16:01.360
<v Speaker 3>are a part of the team and you're one of

0:16:01.440 --> 0:16:04.680
<v Speaker 3>the key decision makers from a governance perspective, you should

0:16:04.680 --> 0:16:07.040
<v Speaker 3>be very aligned with the shareholders and you should have

0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:07.760
<v Speaker 3>skin in the game.

0:16:08.480 --> 0:16:10.800
<v Speaker 2>Okay, interesting, So the fact that people don't have skin

0:16:10.840 --> 0:16:12.840
<v Speaker 2>a game is one of the things that might put

0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:15.720
<v Speaker 2>a spanner of the works of your idea that the

0:16:15.760 --> 0:16:19.240
<v Speaker 2>Great British buyout is the answer to the valuation problem

0:16:19.240 --> 0:16:21.800
<v Speaker 2>in the UK. So, as I understand it, your thought

0:16:21.920 --> 0:16:25.040
<v Speaker 2>is that the M and A in the UK is

0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:27.000
<v Speaker 2>not a bad thing. We shouldn't be saying, oh my god,

0:16:27.040 --> 0:16:29.480
<v Speaker 2>well is me we're losing all our companies that disappearing.

0:16:29.560 --> 0:16:32.760
<v Speaker 2>We should be saying this is absolutely brilliant. Other people

0:16:32.880 --> 0:16:35.960
<v Speaker 2>want our companies and this is going to force that valuations,

0:16:36.160 --> 0:16:38.040
<v Speaker 2>bring you listings into the equation and everything will be

0:16:38.040 --> 0:16:39.800
<v Speaker 2>absolutely fine, thank you very much to the market.

0:16:40.080 --> 0:16:43.000
<v Speaker 3>Absolutely. I mean it's a question of why are companies

0:16:43.040 --> 0:16:45.480
<v Speaker 3>looking to move their listening to the US wire companies

0:16:45.560 --> 0:16:49.920
<v Speaker 3>not looking to Why is London not a competitive venue

0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:53.120
<v Speaker 3>for new listings. It's very simply because of the cost

0:16:53.200 --> 0:16:56.880
<v Speaker 3>of capital, because you know, issuers are saying, look, it's

0:16:56.880 --> 0:16:59.320
<v Speaker 3>too expensive for me to issue equity in London. I

0:16:59.440 --> 0:17:01.760
<v Speaker 3>have very little liquidity. Why do I want to be there.

0:17:01.920 --> 0:17:05.560
<v Speaker 3>The way that gets fixed is by putting the UK

0:17:05.680 --> 0:17:09.720
<v Speaker 3>markets back on a virtuous path, and that virtuous path

0:17:10.800 --> 0:17:13.679
<v Speaker 3>involves today kind of a shock therapy of sorts. And

0:17:13.720 --> 0:17:16.040
<v Speaker 3>the shock therapy can't come in the form of new

0:17:16.119 --> 0:17:20.640
<v Speaker 3>regulation to force, you know, retail investors and to really

0:17:20.720 --> 0:17:23.840
<v Speaker 3>kind of try to manipulate institutional and retail investors to

0:17:23.840 --> 0:17:29.400
<v Speaker 3>bi equities. That shock is allowing private equity capital into

0:17:29.440 --> 0:17:32.960
<v Speaker 3>the markets, and effectively, when you're looking at deals that

0:17:33.000 --> 0:17:36.200
<v Speaker 3>are getting done, they're being done today at thirty forty

0:17:36.280 --> 0:17:39.719
<v Speaker 3>fifty percent premiums. And the path that we're on right

0:17:39.760 --> 0:17:42.760
<v Speaker 3>now is a slow bleedout. Over the last two years,

0:17:42.760 --> 0:17:46.400
<v Speaker 3>the biggest buyer on margin of UK equities were corporates

0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:50.399
<v Speaker 3>ie share buybacks. We are effectively liquidating the UK market

0:17:50.480 --> 0:17:52.840
<v Speaker 3>slowly over a long period of time. Our view is

0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:55.800
<v Speaker 3>very simple, which is that what you do want to

0:17:55.840 --> 0:17:57.879
<v Speaker 3>welcome them is kind of a shock to the system,

0:17:57.920 --> 0:18:01.360
<v Speaker 3>which is a large, in a aggressive wave of take

0:18:01.440 --> 0:18:04.520
<v Speaker 3>privates that you know will all be done inevitably at

0:18:04.520 --> 0:18:07.879
<v Speaker 3>significant premiums. And what that's going to do is severalfold.

0:18:07.960 --> 0:18:11.080
<v Speaker 3>One is it's going to retrain, It's going to bring

0:18:11.160 --> 0:18:13.119
<v Speaker 3>back kind of the animal spirits in the market. So

0:18:13.119 --> 0:18:16.000
<v Speaker 3>if you even look at domestic investors that have kind

0:18:16.040 --> 0:18:18.760
<v Speaker 3>of lost faith and the ability to unlock value in

0:18:18.800 --> 0:18:22.040
<v Speaker 3>the market, for them to see these waves of takeouts,

0:18:22.040 --> 0:18:24.040
<v Speaker 3>all of a sudden, they start to think, okay, well,

0:18:24.119 --> 0:18:26.200
<v Speaker 3>you know, if I buy a stock, somebody might take

0:18:26.200 --> 0:18:30.160
<v Speaker 3>it out, the value might correct, and so it becomes

0:18:30.200 --> 0:18:33.600
<v Speaker 3>an interesting game again. Two is you have foreign buyers

0:18:33.640 --> 0:18:37.040
<v Speaker 3>doing something similar, saying, you know, UK's look very cheap,

0:18:37.320 --> 0:18:40.520
<v Speaker 3>here's finally a mechanism to unlock the value. And so

0:18:40.640 --> 0:18:43.320
<v Speaker 3>you have foreign buyers come into the game. And then finally,

0:18:43.520 --> 0:18:48.320
<v Speaker 3>you know, and importantly is you very quickly realign the

0:18:48.320 --> 0:18:51.679
<v Speaker 3>supply demand and balance. If you have sixteen seventeen hundred

0:18:51.680 --> 0:18:55.119
<v Speaker 3>companies today in the UK and one hundred go away

0:18:55.480 --> 0:18:58.560
<v Speaker 3>very quickly, you know, you still have a large number

0:18:58.560 --> 0:19:01.240
<v Speaker 3>of companies on the market. But importantly, what you've done

0:19:01.359 --> 0:19:04.960
<v Speaker 3>is you've shocked the system and you are realigning the

0:19:05.000 --> 0:19:08.840
<v Speaker 3>supply and demand. And all the institutional investors, particularly the

0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:11.639
<v Speaker 3>long only funds that we're sitting on these positions, they

0:19:11.680 --> 0:19:14.680
<v Speaker 3>all of a sudden get a significant return of capital,

0:19:14.720 --> 0:19:16.280
<v Speaker 3>and what do they do with that capital? They go

0:19:16.359 --> 0:19:19.159
<v Speaker 3>back and buy other shares in that same market. The

0:19:19.280 --> 0:19:23.119
<v Speaker 3>UK domestic investors are going to recycle the capital that

0:19:23.160 --> 0:19:25.840
<v Speaker 3>they get from the sale into new names and what

0:19:25.920 --> 0:19:28.000
<v Speaker 3>that you know, what that's going to do is all

0:19:28.040 --> 0:19:30.640
<v Speaker 3>of a sudden put us on that virtues path where

0:19:30.640 --> 0:19:34.600
<v Speaker 3>there is a rerating across the board. And with that rerating,

0:19:34.640 --> 0:19:37.439
<v Speaker 3>it's going to come the demand for new listings, and

0:19:38.080 --> 0:19:40.560
<v Speaker 3>it's going to also slow down the number of companies

0:19:40.600 --> 0:19:43.840
<v Speaker 3>moving from the UK to the US, and it's going

0:19:43.880 --> 0:19:46.040
<v Speaker 3>to slow down the number of private equity takeouts because

0:19:46.080 --> 0:19:49.320
<v Speaker 3>private equity wants to buy cheap, and so we don't

0:19:49.359 --> 0:19:53.200
<v Speaker 3>you know, ultimately, as public equity investors, we don't want

0:19:53.240 --> 0:19:55.960
<v Speaker 3>the UK market to be cheap, and so we believe

0:19:56.000 --> 0:19:58.920
<v Speaker 3>that that needs to be welcomed rather than viewed as

0:19:59.240 --> 0:20:00.399
<v Speaker 3>a real negative.

0:20:00.680 --> 0:20:04.000
<v Speaker 2>I suppose that the worry here is not to be

0:20:04.040 --> 0:20:06.760
<v Speaker 2>negative about this, because I love the story. I want

0:20:06.760 --> 0:20:10.040
<v Speaker 2>to go with the story. But our pension funds are

0:20:10.520 --> 0:20:14.920
<v Speaker 2>big public investors of that type who have gradually shifted

0:20:15.080 --> 0:20:17.720
<v Speaker 2>all their or very large part of their aum out

0:20:17.760 --> 0:20:20.200
<v Speaker 2>of the UK. And remember well that long ago that

0:20:20.280 --> 0:20:22.760
<v Speaker 2>most of the UK's big pension funds had forty percent

0:20:22.800 --> 0:20:25.720
<v Speaker 2>plus in UK equities. Now they're down to three, four,

0:20:25.840 --> 0:20:28.520
<v Speaker 2>five percent. The wealth managers have been moving out and

0:20:28.600 --> 0:20:31.199
<v Speaker 2>still are. I've still with wealth managers who are in

0:20:31.240 --> 0:20:34.440
<v Speaker 2>the process of cutting that down from forty percent thirty

0:20:34.480 --> 0:20:38.000
<v Speaker 2>percent to five six percent. And you keep hearing about

0:20:38.040 --> 0:20:40.320
<v Speaker 2>this flow of money that is still going. And every

0:20:40.320 --> 0:20:42.320
<v Speaker 2>time we look at the flows and you think, surely

0:20:42.359 --> 0:20:45.119
<v Speaker 2>it's got to be positive by now, it never is.

0:20:45.160 --> 0:20:47.840
<v Speaker 2>That money is still leaving. That is a juggernaut to

0:20:47.880 --> 0:20:51.199
<v Speaker 2>turn around. The idea that the big pension funds, I

0:20:51.200 --> 0:20:55.280
<v Speaker 2>mean you use the words suddenly, quickly, sharp, et cetera,

0:20:55.640 --> 0:20:59.280
<v Speaker 2>to turn that juggernaut of flows around would seem to

0:20:59.280 --> 0:21:02.119
<v Speaker 2>be to be more ten fifteen percent.

0:21:02.240 --> 0:21:04.600
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, first of all, I don't think the UK pension

0:21:04.640 --> 0:21:06.760
<v Speaker 3>funds are really in the game anymore. I think they've

0:21:06.800 --> 0:21:09.720
<v Speaker 3>they've reduced their equity holdings across the board, They've a

0:21:09.760 --> 0:21:12.800
<v Speaker 3>lot of them have significantly derisked. I would not rely

0:21:12.920 --> 0:21:15.480
<v Speaker 3>on that pocket of capital really for the future of

0:21:15.600 --> 0:21:18.680
<v Speaker 3>UK equity markets. But let's just take a step back

0:21:18.720 --> 0:21:21.000
<v Speaker 3>for a second. Fifteen twenty years ago, if you look

0:21:21.119 --> 0:21:25.280
<v Speaker 3>at a UK institutional portfolio of pension portfolio or an

0:21:25.280 --> 0:21:29.560
<v Speaker 3>insurance portfolio, you'd find or nonprofit or whatever it is,

0:21:30.040 --> 0:21:34.160
<v Speaker 3>you would find a vast overwaiting till UK equities, what

0:21:34.359 --> 0:21:37.760
<v Speaker 3>we call a home bias. Why you know, at the time,

0:21:37.880 --> 0:21:41.560
<v Speaker 3>the UK had about five percent of the global market cap,

0:21:41.840 --> 0:21:44.719
<v Speaker 3>and yet you would find portfolios of forty fifty sixty

0:21:44.720 --> 0:21:49.280
<v Speaker 3>percent UK equities. Why the UK needs to compete globally.

0:21:49.440 --> 0:21:53.600
<v Speaker 3>We cannot look inside and just say, okay, what new

0:21:53.920 --> 0:21:57.920
<v Speaker 3>pockets of assets internally can we source? The UK should

0:21:58.000 --> 0:22:02.040
<v Speaker 3>be a global financial center that really is attractive for

0:22:02.200 --> 0:22:07.960
<v Speaker 3>global investors and needs to look and compete globally, not

0:22:08.520 --> 0:22:12.159
<v Speaker 3>just not just for you know, UK share of the

0:22:12.280 --> 0:22:13.160
<v Speaker 3>UK waalert.

0:22:13.119 --> 0:22:14.840
<v Speaker 2>Okay, I feel like you're not that keen on the

0:22:15.480 --> 0:22:16.680
<v Speaker 2>British iSER.

0:22:16.920 --> 0:22:18.960
<v Speaker 3>No, I listen. I don't think that's a bad idea.

0:22:19.040 --> 0:22:21.240
<v Speaker 3>I just think it's incremental. I think that could work,

0:22:21.480 --> 0:22:23.040
<v Speaker 3>I just don't know if it's going to work in time.

0:22:23.280 --> 0:22:27.400
<v Speaker 3>It doesn't make the UK more competitive globally. I think

0:22:27.440 --> 0:22:29.920
<v Speaker 3>that the way you make the UK more competitive globally

0:22:30.440 --> 0:22:33.080
<v Speaker 3>is you fix the alignment first of all between directors

0:22:33.080 --> 0:22:35.600
<v Speaker 3>and shareholders. And the second point, which I was I

0:22:35.640 --> 0:22:39.120
<v Speaker 3>was starting to make earlier, is around the UK government, Sorry,

0:22:39.160 --> 0:22:42.680
<v Speaker 3>the UK Takeover Code, which I think is no longer

0:22:42.720 --> 0:22:45.760
<v Speaker 3>fit for purpose. You know, the UK Takeover Code is

0:22:45.800 --> 0:22:48.119
<v Speaker 3>like SACRICYNCT in the city and people like don't want

0:22:48.160 --> 0:22:51.200
<v Speaker 3>to even debate it, but it's no longer fit for purpose.

0:22:51.240 --> 0:22:55.960
<v Speaker 3>There are there are things that make that effectively create

0:22:56.080 --> 0:23:00.440
<v Speaker 3>barriers for takeovers in the UK that are undress necessary

0:23:00.520 --> 0:23:05.640
<v Speaker 3>and unhelpful and effectively take agency away from from shareholders

0:23:05.760 --> 0:23:07.240
<v Speaker 3>and that's not positive.

0:23:07.560 --> 0:23:09.000
<v Speaker 2>Will you give make a couple of examples of the

0:23:09.080 --> 0:23:11.199
<v Speaker 2>kind of thing that in the code that, yeah, I

0:23:11.200 --> 0:23:11.399
<v Speaker 2>mean a.

0:23:11.400 --> 0:23:13.760
<v Speaker 3>Lot of things. You know, sure, the put up or

0:23:13.760 --> 0:23:16.240
<v Speaker 3>shut up rule, I know that's something that's very unique

0:23:16.240 --> 0:23:18.600
<v Speaker 3>to the UK. So when a buyer comes in, you know,

0:23:18.760 --> 0:23:21.199
<v Speaker 3>you think about a foreign buyer comes and says, hey,

0:23:21.280 --> 0:23:24.320
<v Speaker 3>there's a company in the UK that that we're interested in,

0:23:24.400 --> 0:23:26.560
<v Speaker 3>we want to approach them. They sit with their lawyers

0:23:26.560 --> 0:23:28.040
<v Speaker 3>and the first thing they do is they get a

0:23:28.080 --> 0:23:29.760
<v Speaker 3>rundown of okay, well, do you have to be aware

0:23:29.760 --> 0:23:31.920
<v Speaker 3>of a few things. One is, if you're even your

0:23:31.960 --> 0:23:36.360
<v Speaker 3>conversation leaks, forget a bid. If your conversation leaks, then

0:23:36.440 --> 0:23:38.720
<v Speaker 3>you have twenty eight days to put up a fully

0:23:38.800 --> 0:23:42.359
<v Speaker 3>funded bid, or you have to so called shut up,

0:23:42.400 --> 0:23:44.760
<v Speaker 3>You have to stay away for six months, and you

0:23:44.800 --> 0:23:46.960
<v Speaker 3>have to deal with the public repercussions of the fact

0:23:47.000 --> 0:23:49.679
<v Speaker 3>that everybody knows about this, et cetera. You know, and

0:23:49.720 --> 0:23:52.680
<v Speaker 3>you and so that is the kind of thing that's

0:23:52.760 --> 0:23:56.400
<v Speaker 3>just not particularly helpful in attracting foreign capital. Another example

0:23:56.480 --> 0:24:00.240
<v Speaker 3>is you need to have a fully funded deal. You know,

0:24:00.280 --> 0:24:03.080
<v Speaker 3>when you're making an offer. That is a very difficult

0:24:03.119 --> 0:24:06.080
<v Speaker 3>position to put a buyer into. Now, some buyers can

0:24:06.119 --> 0:24:09.359
<v Speaker 3>do that if they're making a reasonably small acquisition relative

0:24:09.400 --> 0:24:12.480
<v Speaker 3>to their size. But you're asking other buyers to not

0:24:12.680 --> 0:24:17.040
<v Speaker 3>just show the equity capital, but have it fully financed.

0:24:17.080 --> 0:24:19.720
<v Speaker 3>In other words, get the debt providers on board, do

0:24:19.920 --> 0:24:23.080
<v Speaker 3>all the work in advance, not knowing that you're actually

0:24:23.080 --> 0:24:25.680
<v Speaker 3>going to get a transaction consummated. That's a big ask.

0:24:26.200 --> 0:24:28.920
<v Speaker 3>Whereas you know in the US there's a little bit

0:24:28.920 --> 0:24:31.720
<v Speaker 3>more of a fluid process. It's not as rigid. You

0:24:31.760 --> 0:24:33.920
<v Speaker 3>can come to agreement. The board can take a view

0:24:33.960 --> 0:24:35.840
<v Speaker 3>that you know, this company should be able to get

0:24:35.840 --> 0:24:38.600
<v Speaker 3>its debt financing. We kind of believe in that, and

0:24:38.600 --> 0:24:42.080
<v Speaker 3>and we're willing to, you know, to get a higher price.

0:24:42.119 --> 0:24:43.959
<v Speaker 3>We're willing to take a little bit of that of

0:24:44.000 --> 0:24:48.440
<v Speaker 3>that risk. In the UK, it's just not even possible.

0:24:48.480 --> 0:24:51.439
<v Speaker 3>The board can can't kind of make that decision. And

0:24:51.520 --> 0:24:57.200
<v Speaker 3>so the takeover codes really you know, run its course,

0:24:57.240 --> 0:24:59.840
<v Speaker 3>but it needs to be revisited. And I think barriers

0:24:59.840 --> 0:25:02.160
<v Speaker 3>need to come down, and they need to come down,

0:25:02.240 --> 0:25:04.879
<v Speaker 3>not just you know, in order to make it easier

0:25:04.920 --> 0:25:08.840
<v Speaker 3>to transact, but also to signal to foreign buyers that

0:25:08.880 --> 0:25:12.160
<v Speaker 3>the UK is open for business. Hey, come look over here.

0:25:11.520 --> 0:25:14.240
<v Speaker 3>We are we are heading the right direction here with regulation,

0:25:14.920 --> 0:25:17.320
<v Speaker 3>and I just think that needs to happen.

0:25:17.720 --> 0:25:19.840
<v Speaker 2>Anesting, I mean, a lot of people would say, and

0:25:20.000 --> 0:25:22.400
<v Speaker 2>a big part of the commentariat in the UK would

0:25:22.400 --> 0:25:24.800
<v Speaker 2>say that it's too easy to take over a UK company.

0:25:24.800 --> 0:25:27.399
<v Speaker 2>It's too easy to come and snap up a UK company.

0:25:27.440 --> 0:25:28.959
<v Speaker 2>And effectively take it abroad.

0:25:29.320 --> 0:25:33.160
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, those aren't people who have bought companies in the UK. Okay,

0:25:33.240 --> 0:25:33.760
<v Speaker 3>fair enough.

0:25:34.440 --> 0:25:36.720
<v Speaker 2>I mean it is interesting. I mean books written about

0:25:36.720 --> 0:25:38.840
<v Speaker 2>how easy it is to buy companies in the UK

0:25:39.359 --> 0:25:42.240
<v Speaker 2>and how we effectively give away our companies.

0:25:42.320 --> 0:25:44.360
<v Speaker 3>You know, there is a real issue with a lot

0:25:44.359 --> 0:25:47.199
<v Speaker 3>of pundits that speak without knowledge or experience, you know,

0:25:47.240 --> 0:25:49.320
<v Speaker 3>and in fact a lot of our regulators, a lot

0:25:49.320 --> 0:25:52.040
<v Speaker 3>of people who are involved in regulation. It's just shocking

0:25:52.600 --> 0:25:54.560
<v Speaker 3>kind of the concepts that they come up with and

0:25:55.600 --> 0:25:57.719
<v Speaker 3>you know, and what they think is the right solution.

0:25:57.880 --> 0:26:01.000
<v Speaker 3>And so you see it time and again. People have views,

0:26:01.080 --> 0:26:03.919
<v Speaker 3>but you have to really understand what's the driver of

0:26:03.920 --> 0:26:04.720
<v Speaker 3>those us Do.

0:26:04.680 --> 0:26:07.200
<v Speaker 2>You say that a change in the takeover code would

0:26:07.200 --> 0:26:09.040
<v Speaker 2>be a really great signal the world that we are

0:26:09.080 --> 0:26:11.480
<v Speaker 2>open for business. And one thing that we've talked about

0:26:11.480 --> 0:26:14.680
<v Speaker 2>a lot on this podcast is that another great signal

0:26:14.720 --> 0:26:17.040
<v Speaker 2>would be to not have one of the highest stand

0:26:17.200 --> 0:26:20.800
<v Speaker 2>duties in the world, and the cutting stand duty at

0:26:20.840 --> 0:26:23.680
<v Speaker 2>least down to somewhere roughly in the region of where

0:26:23.720 --> 0:26:25.239
<v Speaker 2>other countries have it if they have it at all,

0:26:25.320 --> 0:26:28.480
<v Speaker 2>or abolishing it would be a great way to signal

0:26:28.520 --> 0:26:30.879
<v Speaker 2>to the world that we are open for business.

0:26:31.280 --> 0:26:33.240
<v Speaker 3>Absolutely. I mean, I think that's one hundred percent of

0:26:33.280 --> 0:26:35.439
<v Speaker 3>step that should be taken. I think liquidity in the

0:26:35.480 --> 0:26:40.439
<v Speaker 3>market is very poor, and I think that that is

0:26:41.080 --> 0:26:45.920
<v Speaker 3>for sure both a substantive and important signal change.

0:26:46.119 --> 0:26:48.320
<v Speaker 2>Okay, so we've got a dump stand duty, we've got

0:26:48.359 --> 0:26:52.440
<v Speaker 2>to fix the takeover code, and we've got to change

0:26:52.440 --> 0:26:55.960
<v Speaker 2>the obligations on directors anything else.

0:26:56.400 --> 0:26:59.600
<v Speaker 3>Those are the core points and I think that generally,

0:27:00.119 --> 0:27:04.719
<v Speaker 3>you know, I think the attitude towards private capital, you know,

0:27:04.840 --> 0:27:07.879
<v Speaker 3>should change. You know, these are not national treasures that

0:27:07.960 --> 0:27:10.720
<v Speaker 3>are being taken private. These companies that are being taken

0:27:10.760 --> 0:27:14.520
<v Speaker 3>private often remain in the UK, very often are very

0:27:14.520 --> 0:27:17.560
<v Speaker 3>well run. And I think at the end of the day,

0:27:17.600 --> 0:27:19.960
<v Speaker 3>the sooner we let it in, the sooner we kind

0:27:20.000 --> 0:27:26.560
<v Speaker 3>of deregulate and welcome transactions and create better alignment with directors.

0:27:27.119 --> 0:27:30.200
<v Speaker 3>The sooner we do that, the sooner that valuation gap closes,

0:27:30.400 --> 0:27:33.320
<v Speaker 3>and the sooner you have a slowdown of a way

0:27:33.359 --> 0:27:38.320
<v Speaker 3>of buyouts. And then the sooner you have companies really

0:27:39.119 --> 0:27:42.160
<v Speaker 3>vying to list in the UK again, and that would

0:27:42.160 --> 0:27:43.000
<v Speaker 3>be a good place to be.

0:27:43.440 --> 0:27:46.760
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Is there a case also for changing some of

0:27:46.760 --> 0:27:49.840
<v Speaker 2>the regulations around listing. I mean, it's very onerous to

0:27:49.880 --> 0:27:52.280
<v Speaker 2>be a listed company in the UK relative to being

0:27:52.359 --> 0:27:54.520
<v Speaker 2>a private company, and you hear a lot of complaints

0:27:54.560 --> 0:27:57.400
<v Speaker 2>from listed companies, particularly smaller list of companies who don't

0:27:57.440 --> 0:28:01.720
<v Speaker 2>have the resources these compliance and departments that in fact

0:28:01.800 --> 0:28:04.520
<v Speaker 2>that the burden of this is huge. I mean I

0:28:04.560 --> 0:28:08.280
<v Speaker 2>spoke to a recently retired CEO of a company the

0:28:08.320 --> 0:28:10.280
<v Speaker 2>other day who'd been a CEO of a UK to

0:28:10.320 --> 0:28:13.320
<v Speaker 2>sid company for a long time, and he said, in

0:28:13.560 --> 0:28:17.439
<v Speaker 2>the early parts of his career as the CEO, he

0:28:17.520 --> 0:28:19.840
<v Speaker 2>was spending maybe one or two days a year dealing

0:28:19.880 --> 0:28:23.800
<v Speaker 2>with regulatory issues, discussing things with government, dealing you know, lobbying, etc.

0:28:24.680 --> 0:28:26.879
<v Speaker 2>Towards the end of his career he could say that

0:28:26.920 --> 0:28:28.560
<v Speaker 2>was maybe one or two days of a week.

0:28:29.560 --> 0:28:34.000
<v Speaker 3>I think deregulating across the board is helpful. I think

0:28:34.040 --> 0:28:37.600
<v Speaker 3>that signaling, you know, sentiment matters. And I think that

0:28:37.680 --> 0:28:42.920
<v Speaker 3>when you inject, you know, when you provide the signal

0:28:43.240 --> 0:28:47.280
<v Speaker 3>that the UK's is open for business, that the UK

0:28:47.680 --> 0:28:52.200
<v Speaker 3>is is deregulating, then I think the sentiment that can

0:28:52.320 --> 0:28:54.520
<v Speaker 3>really drive a shift in sentiment, and sentiment matters.

0:28:55.280 --> 0:28:57.400
<v Speaker 2>I want to talk about how you invest, you know,

0:28:57.400 --> 0:28:59.320
<v Speaker 2>the kind of companies you look for, and the way

0:28:59.640 --> 0:29:02.200
<v Speaker 2>you are a very activate and impactful investor. Before we

0:29:02.200 --> 0:29:03.440
<v Speaker 2>get to this, I want to pick up on something

0:29:03.440 --> 0:29:05.720
<v Speaker 2>that you said the very beginning, when you said the

0:29:05.800 --> 0:29:09.800
<v Speaker 2>UK does have a worse productivity problem than other countries.

0:29:10.080 --> 0:29:11.840
<v Speaker 2>Do you have a sense of why that is or

0:29:11.880 --> 0:29:15.680
<v Speaker 2>feeling about what it is and what might change it? Well,

0:29:17.160 --> 0:29:19.440
<v Speaker 2>you can be rude, I'm fine, no, no, no, no, no.

0:29:19.720 --> 0:29:22.760
<v Speaker 3>I mean, look, I think that's not really not being rude,

0:29:22.760 --> 0:29:25.480
<v Speaker 3>but I just knowing what I know and knowing what

0:29:25.560 --> 0:29:28.360
<v Speaker 3>I don't know, it is a bit perplexing on some levels.

0:29:28.360 --> 0:29:30.280
<v Speaker 3>But I do think that the problem has been around

0:29:30.280 --> 0:29:32.959
<v Speaker 3>for a long time, and I think it's been masked

0:29:33.000 --> 0:29:37.680
<v Speaker 3>by having an economy that was so heavily reliant on

0:29:37.760 --> 0:29:44.600
<v Speaker 3>financial services, where productivity became extraordinarily high, and it kind

0:29:44.640 --> 0:29:48.640
<v Speaker 3>of masks the poor productivity in other segments of the market.

0:29:48.760 --> 0:29:52.120
<v Speaker 3>And so as the economies become less reliant on financial services,

0:29:52.160 --> 0:29:57.800
<v Speaker 3>I think that that reveals a fundamentally low productivity market.

0:29:58.000 --> 0:30:00.760
<v Speaker 3>You know. I think the issues when it comes to productivity,

0:30:00.800 --> 0:30:03.920
<v Speaker 3>I think there's many things at play, and I think

0:30:04.000 --> 0:30:09.000
<v Speaker 3>that the vast swing in immigration in the UK both

0:30:09.080 --> 0:30:11.800
<v Speaker 3>and you know, the kind of exodus from Brexit and

0:30:11.840 --> 0:30:16.880
<v Speaker 3>then you know new forms of immigration makes the data,

0:30:17.160 --> 0:30:19.000
<v Speaker 3>you know, just a lot harder to interpret.

0:30:19.280 --> 0:30:21.920
<v Speaker 2>So let's go on to how you invest some of

0:30:21.960 --> 0:30:24.760
<v Speaker 2>you if there's a special opportunities fund and the idea

0:30:24.800 --> 0:30:28.840
<v Speaker 2>there is to some summarizing very quickly find value traps

0:30:28.880 --> 0:30:30.440
<v Speaker 2>and stop them being value traps.

0:30:30.760 --> 0:30:33.000
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's fair. I mean I wouldn't say find value

0:30:33.000 --> 0:30:36.760
<v Speaker 3>traps as much as we're activist investors, meaning we engage

0:30:36.800 --> 0:30:40.800
<v Speaker 3>with management, board shareholders to unlock value. The companies are

0:30:40.840 --> 0:30:43.880
<v Speaker 3>starting point, are really companies that have lost a significant

0:30:43.880 --> 0:30:48.959
<v Speaker 3>amount of their peak market. Sure, that could involve you know,

0:30:49.400 --> 0:30:57.880
<v Speaker 3>companies on the verger distressed like which involve significant turnarounds,

0:30:58.400 --> 0:31:00.920
<v Speaker 3>or companies that really just have lot sty're footing a

0:31:00.920 --> 0:31:04.680
<v Speaker 3>bit and need the shareholders to push the board to

0:31:04.720 --> 0:31:07.320
<v Speaker 3>take certain action. And so we find our role to

0:31:07.400 --> 0:31:12.880
<v Speaker 3>be really identifying those opportunities, aligning, getting kind of some

0:31:13.000 --> 0:31:16.000
<v Speaker 3>kind of unity amongst the shareholders around these issues, and

0:31:16.160 --> 0:31:18.640
<v Speaker 3>just really holding the board to account. And that's what

0:31:18.680 --> 0:31:18.920
<v Speaker 3>we do.

0:31:19.240 --> 0:31:21.880
<v Speaker 2>What's the biggest mistake do you think that company management

0:31:21.920 --> 0:31:25.000
<v Speaker 2>make in the UK and smaller companies what do they

0:31:25.000 --> 0:31:27.480
<v Speaker 2>do that causes them to get themselves enter these problems?

0:31:27.560 --> 0:31:33.800
<v Speaker 3>But that's a whole other podcast. But where do we start?

0:31:34.080 --> 0:31:35.960
<v Speaker 3>You know, because of the nature of the kinds of

0:31:35.960 --> 0:31:38.160
<v Speaker 3>companies that we look at, the sets of mistakes are,

0:31:38.640 --> 0:31:40.440
<v Speaker 3>you know, a little bit different from I would say,

0:31:40.600 --> 0:31:43.440
<v Speaker 3>you know, the broader market. Being a public company CEO,

0:31:43.760 --> 0:31:46.080
<v Speaker 3>or any CEO for that matter, any leader. In a sense,

0:31:46.560 --> 0:31:51.240
<v Speaker 3>the key attribute of a successful leader is being transparent

0:31:51.360 --> 0:31:54.800
<v Speaker 3>about the challenges and the issues. And I think that

0:31:54.920 --> 0:31:59.080
<v Speaker 3>once you are transparent and open about where the challenges are,

0:31:59.080 --> 0:32:02.560
<v Speaker 3>where the mistakes have and you own those, you build

0:32:02.640 --> 0:32:06.320
<v Speaker 3>trust amongst your management team, amongst your board, amongst your shareholders,

0:32:07.120 --> 0:32:10.240
<v Speaker 3>and you know, there are very few problems that can't

0:32:10.240 --> 0:32:13.600
<v Speaker 3>be solved over some reasonable period of time. But when

0:32:13.640 --> 0:32:16.360
<v Speaker 3>you don't own those, when you aren't, when you try

0:32:16.400 --> 0:32:19.160
<v Speaker 3>to kind of hide the mistakes, when you try to

0:32:19.200 --> 0:32:22.840
<v Speaker 3>brush over them, that's when the bigger problems come up.

0:32:22.960 --> 0:32:26.640
<v Speaker 3>Too many CEOs are too quick to try to kind

0:32:26.640 --> 0:32:29.640
<v Speaker 3>of hide the mistakes and or you know, or try

0:32:29.680 --> 0:32:32.840
<v Speaker 3>to deny that a mistake has been made or that

0:32:32.920 --> 0:32:36.120
<v Speaker 3>there's a you know, meaningful challenge. They think they need

0:32:36.160 --> 0:32:40.000
<v Speaker 3>to create a certain appearance at all times, and that's

0:32:40.040 --> 0:32:43.760
<v Speaker 3>where trust breaks down. And you sometimes see these companies

0:32:43.800 --> 0:32:46.400
<v Speaker 3>with stock prices that make no sense, and when you

0:32:46.440 --> 0:32:49.000
<v Speaker 3>really spend more time on it, you just realize the

0:32:49.040 --> 0:32:52.520
<v Speaker 3>shareholders just don't trust management anymore. I know that's a

0:32:52.600 --> 0:32:56.320
<v Speaker 3>problem that's hard to solve, and in fact, most often

0:32:56.360 --> 0:32:58.920
<v Speaker 3>there's only one solution for that, which is for the

0:32:58.960 --> 0:33:01.360
<v Speaker 3>CEO to go absolutely.

0:33:02.520 --> 0:33:04.959
<v Speaker 2>All right. So it's the core problem with a smaller

0:33:04.960 --> 0:33:09.480
<v Speaker 2>company in trouble is that trust is broken down. How

0:33:09.520 --> 0:33:13.760
<v Speaker 2>does an active investor let you coming in buying a mistake?

0:33:14.280 --> 0:33:17.040
<v Speaker 2>How do you then build trust with a management team

0:33:18.200 --> 0:33:20.480
<v Speaker 2>who are already not trusted by their other showholders?

0:33:20.920 --> 0:33:24.800
<v Speaker 3>How do we build trust? Well, we have a saying internally,

0:33:24.840 --> 0:33:27.600
<v Speaker 3>which is we seek to understand before we seek to

0:33:27.640 --> 0:33:30.560
<v Speaker 3>be understood. And so, you know, I do think that

0:33:31.480 --> 0:33:33.840
<v Speaker 3>we when we enter a position, we have a thesis.

0:33:33.960 --> 0:33:36.160
<v Speaker 3>We have a view on what's potentially going wrong, and

0:33:36.240 --> 0:33:39.760
<v Speaker 3>usually that view is more often than not right. You know,

0:33:39.840 --> 0:33:42.720
<v Speaker 3>we we do it enough homework that we really get

0:33:43.080 --> 0:33:45.760
<v Speaker 3>a pretty good we build a pretty good mosaic. Having

0:33:45.800 --> 0:33:49.040
<v Speaker 3>said that, as you get to know the management team

0:33:49.120 --> 0:33:51.120
<v Speaker 3>as you spend more time with them. You know, you

0:33:51.160 --> 0:33:53.400
<v Speaker 3>need to be open minded that we don't know it

0:33:53.440 --> 0:33:56.800
<v Speaker 3>all and there could be factors there that we're unaware of.

0:33:58.000 --> 0:34:01.520
<v Speaker 3>And so I think that not being open mind, but showing,

0:34:01.880 --> 0:34:04.120
<v Speaker 3>you know, management teams our ability to be open minded,

0:34:04.160 --> 0:34:06.920
<v Speaker 3>our ability to change our view. I think it's important.

0:34:07.200 --> 0:34:10.000
<v Speaker 3>And from a trust respect, we're not out to get them,

0:34:10.840 --> 0:34:13.439
<v Speaker 3>you know, And in fact, I would say more often

0:34:13.480 --> 0:34:16.680
<v Speaker 3>than not we play a very supportive role with existing

0:34:16.719 --> 0:34:19.360
<v Speaker 3>management teams. But the ones where we don't are the

0:34:19.360 --> 0:34:23.080
<v Speaker 3>ones which make more of the headlines. And so you know,

0:34:23.200 --> 0:34:24.439
<v Speaker 3>that's that's the nature of the beast.

0:34:24.560 --> 0:34:27.160
<v Speaker 2>You're in a public letter recently about Elementis, So that's

0:34:27.200 --> 0:34:28.880
<v Speaker 2>something that that you hold in the front to tell

0:34:28.920 --> 0:34:29.920
<v Speaker 2>me a little bit about that.

0:34:30.560 --> 0:34:34.319
<v Speaker 3>Elementis is a company that has underperformed over a long

0:34:34.360 --> 0:34:38.720
<v Speaker 3>period of time and has significant underperformed during the tenure

0:34:38.760 --> 0:34:41.799
<v Speaker 3>of the current management team. They made an acquisition which

0:34:41.840 --> 0:34:44.839
<v Speaker 3>has not panned out as planned. In fact, I'd say

0:34:44.840 --> 0:34:51.160
<v Speaker 3>it was a very poor result. And you know, and

0:34:51.320 --> 0:34:54.640
<v Speaker 3>and the management has not met its targets, but in

0:34:54.640 --> 0:34:58.000
<v Speaker 3>fact has fallen far short of its targets. And so

0:34:58.520 --> 0:35:01.640
<v Speaker 3>you know, I would actually say that's an example of

0:35:02.040 --> 0:35:06.640
<v Speaker 3>a company where shareholders have lost trust with management team

0:35:07.320 --> 0:35:11.480
<v Speaker 3>and we're expecting the board to make the appropriate changes.

0:35:11.640 --> 0:35:13.080
<v Speaker 2>And what are those appropriate changes.

0:35:13.239 --> 0:35:16.080
<v Speaker 3>Well, we've highlighted in the letter one of the points

0:35:16.120 --> 0:35:18.320
<v Speaker 3>we made, which is a topic we just spoke about.

0:35:18.480 --> 0:35:21.240
<v Speaker 3>This is the lack of alignment between the non executive

0:35:21.239 --> 0:35:24.640
<v Speaker 3>directors and the shareholders. You know, non execut directors own

0:35:24.719 --> 0:35:27.920
<v Speaker 3>less than one year of their fees in stock. And

0:35:28.000 --> 0:35:31.320
<v Speaker 3>so yeah, the changes is that the company is undergoing

0:35:31.320 --> 0:35:35.319
<v Speaker 3>a significant cost savings program right now and implementing a

0:35:35.360 --> 0:35:38.239
<v Speaker 3>significant cost savings program, and in the midst of that,

0:35:38.560 --> 0:35:42.240
<v Speaker 3>we just think that it's not great for company morale

0:35:42.360 --> 0:35:46.160
<v Speaker 3>to be implementing cost savings while you have a management

0:35:46.200 --> 0:35:50.879
<v Speaker 3>team that has consistently underperformed keeping their jobs.

0:35:51.360 --> 0:35:53.759
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, well, maybe they're listening. Listeners. Will put a link

0:35:53.800 --> 0:35:56.040
<v Speaker 2>to that letter in the show notes so you can

0:35:56.080 --> 0:35:57.840
<v Speaker 2>go and have a look at it. Learn more about

0:35:58.200 --> 0:36:01.520
<v Speaker 2>this in general. Right, few of things. You are very

0:36:01.640 --> 0:36:05.400
<v Speaker 2>very active. Are you concerned that the rise of passive

0:36:05.560 --> 0:36:08.640
<v Speaker 2>across the world when it comes to investing is a

0:36:08.680 --> 0:36:12.040
<v Speaker 2>problem for market or is it just a huge opportunity

0:36:12.040 --> 0:36:12.239
<v Speaker 2>for you.

0:36:12.680 --> 0:36:17.640
<v Speaker 3>There's two things that have really changed the fundamentals of markets.

0:36:17.640 --> 0:36:20.440
<v Speaker 3>One is the rise of passive the other is the

0:36:20.560 --> 0:36:24.719
<v Speaker 3>rise of quantitative trading. You know. In both of those cases,

0:36:26.640 --> 0:36:29.920
<v Speaker 3>you know, the investors aren't looking at the fundamentals, you know,

0:36:30.080 --> 0:36:33.759
<v Speaker 3>and and so that leaves a more limited universe of

0:36:33.880 --> 0:36:37.759
<v Speaker 3>investors who are still looking at the fundamentals. Now, one

0:36:37.760 --> 0:36:41.080
<v Speaker 3>would argue that there are enough active investors out there

0:36:41.160 --> 0:36:45.399
<v Speaker 3>to set you know, the prices appropriately for someone like us.

0:36:45.400 --> 0:36:49.840
<v Speaker 3>That creates opportunity. I mean, for our biggest concern is

0:36:50.400 --> 0:36:53.200
<v Speaker 3>buying the right way, because we we fundally view if

0:36:53.200 --> 0:36:56.279
<v Speaker 3>we buy right and we can get what we want

0:36:56.320 --> 0:36:59.359
<v Speaker 3>to get done, you know, the valuation will will play out,

0:36:59.480 --> 0:37:02.760
<v Speaker 3>you know. And so there's an important role for passive

0:37:02.760 --> 0:37:06.359
<v Speaker 3>investing in the investment universe. But I think people need

0:37:06.400 --> 0:37:09.480
<v Speaker 3>to be reminded that passive only works because there are

0:37:09.520 --> 0:37:10.799
<v Speaker 3>active investors out there.

0:37:11.280 --> 0:37:13.480
<v Speaker 2>Yeah yeah, and so then may well become a tipping

0:37:13.480 --> 0:37:16.080
<v Speaker 2>point when there is too much passive.

0:37:16.719 --> 0:37:19.040
<v Speaker 3>What's going to happen is just active investors, you know,

0:37:19.200 --> 0:37:22.880
<v Speaker 3>by definition, should over time be able to capitalize on that.

0:37:22.920 --> 0:37:24.840
<v Speaker 3>It's just real to require a different kind of capital

0:37:24.880 --> 0:37:28.799
<v Speaker 3>base where investors maybe aren't providing you know, funds aren't

0:37:28.800 --> 0:37:31.839
<v Speaker 3>providing daily liquidity, but maybe have a longer term view

0:37:31.880 --> 0:37:36.320
<v Speaker 3>on their capital and can hold positions and really significantly

0:37:36.400 --> 0:37:39.239
<v Speaker 3>outperform markets as a result of that. Now, having said

0:37:39.280 --> 0:37:40.960
<v Speaker 3>all that, I mean, part of the story here is

0:37:41.000 --> 0:37:44.600
<v Speaker 3>that the vast majority of wealth creation in the markets

0:37:44.600 --> 0:37:47.399
<v Speaker 3>has been some of the bigger tech names out there,

0:37:47.760 --> 0:37:50.040
<v Speaker 3>and that's been in recent years. That's a part of

0:37:50.040 --> 0:37:52.160
<v Speaker 3>the equation that that kind of needs to be taken

0:37:52.160 --> 0:37:52.960
<v Speaker 3>into account as well.

0:37:53.280 --> 0:37:55.560
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, the other the other big change along with the

0:37:55.640 --> 0:37:58.240
<v Speaker 2>rise of passive, we've also have the rise of private acquity,

0:37:58.320 --> 0:38:00.200
<v Speaker 2>which is something that you're quite close to because you're

0:38:00.239 --> 0:38:03.000
<v Speaker 2>working and there's a private equity style end of the market.

0:38:03.640 --> 0:38:06.360
<v Speaker 2>And one of the worries with private equity is day that,

0:38:06.600 --> 0:38:09.000
<v Speaker 2>you know, it's not necessarily particularly good for companies. They

0:38:09.000 --> 0:38:10.960
<v Speaker 2>get their cost cut too much, they get loaded up

0:38:10.960 --> 0:38:14.840
<v Speaker 2>with debt, et cetera, and it's not necessarily the best

0:38:14.880 --> 0:38:17.640
<v Speaker 2>thing for a company. So if we get to a

0:38:17.680 --> 0:38:20.840
<v Speaker 2>stage where we see less private equity more IPO, that

0:38:21.160 --> 0:38:23.360
<v Speaker 2>seems like a good thing. A could shift back of

0:38:23.400 --> 0:38:24.360
<v Speaker 2>the pendulum.

0:38:24.600 --> 0:38:27.360
<v Speaker 3>Do you think if we're seeing less private equity and

0:38:27.400 --> 0:38:31.040
<v Speaker 3>more IPOs, that's because valuations have corrected. Having said that,

0:38:31.080 --> 0:38:33.880
<v Speaker 3>I don't think that there's anything apherently wrong with private

0:38:33.880 --> 0:38:37.200
<v Speaker 3>equity owning businesses. In fact that I think that private

0:38:37.200 --> 0:38:40.560
<v Speaker 3>equity more often than not runs business as well, and

0:38:41.120 --> 0:38:44.560
<v Speaker 3>is able to do things and invest in the business

0:38:44.560 --> 0:38:48.919
<v Speaker 3>in ways that sometimes companies standalone independent public companies can't.

0:38:49.800 --> 0:38:51.560
<v Speaker 3>And so I think that there are some advantages to

0:38:53.680 --> 0:38:56.400
<v Speaker 3>being held as a private company versus public company, and

0:38:57.760 --> 0:38:59.360
<v Speaker 3>in some cases it can be in fact better.

0:39:00.200 --> 0:39:02.560
<v Speaker 2>So the rise of private equity might even be about

0:39:02.600 --> 0:39:04.120
<v Speaker 2>something other than cheap debt.

0:39:05.200 --> 0:39:10.120
<v Speaker 3>Yes, as the cost of debt has risen, I think

0:39:10.120 --> 0:39:12.799
<v Speaker 3>that's going to separate those private equity firms that are

0:39:12.800 --> 0:39:15.400
<v Speaker 3>creating real value versus the ones that made their money

0:39:15.560 --> 0:39:18.600
<v Speaker 3>entirely through financial engineering. But I think there are definitely

0:39:18.760 --> 0:39:21.719
<v Speaker 3>many private equity firms that are the real deal, and

0:39:22.360 --> 0:39:23.880
<v Speaker 3>you are good stewards.

0:39:23.480 --> 0:39:25.520
<v Speaker 2>Of that capital, competing with you a bit, though.

0:39:25.640 --> 0:39:28.960
<v Speaker 3>No, not competing. We welcome private equity into the public markets,

0:39:29.080 --> 0:39:31.080
<v Speaker 3>and in fact, I think we need to see more

0:39:31.160 --> 0:39:31.799
<v Speaker 3>of it right now.

0:39:32.480 --> 0:39:36.560
<v Speaker 2>In essence, let's end on a positive high note in essence,

0:39:36.600 --> 0:39:38.960
<v Speaker 2>you're pretty bullish on the UK. So all the things

0:39:38.960 --> 0:39:40.680
<v Speaker 2>that people will look at and might say, well, it's

0:39:40.680 --> 0:39:42.840
<v Speaker 2>perfectly fair for the UK to be cheap because the

0:39:43.320 --> 0:39:47.680
<v Speaker 2>companies have badly managed, loudly productivity, political risks, shooting themselves

0:39:47.680 --> 0:39:51.680
<v Speaker 2>in the foot with net zero and overregulation, etc. All

0:39:51.760 --> 0:39:56.720
<v Speaker 2>those things are not minor but not going to hold

0:39:56.800 --> 0:40:00.560
<v Speaker 2>us back from possibly seeing a good res So we

0:40:00.560 --> 0:40:03.120
<v Speaker 2>should all probably run out and buy the thirty two

0:40:03.160 --> 0:40:04.360
<v Speaker 2>fifty or even smaller.

0:40:04.640 --> 0:40:06.759
<v Speaker 3>I don't know if i'd say I'm bullish broadly about

0:40:06.840 --> 0:40:10.040
<v Speaker 3>UK markets. I think there's a lot of value individual

0:40:10.120 --> 0:40:13.080
<v Speaker 3>individual names in the UK market, and I think there

0:40:13.160 --> 0:40:15.520
<v Speaker 3>is a path towards unlocking that value, and I think

0:40:15.560 --> 0:40:18.520
<v Speaker 3>that boards really need to think very carefully about how

0:40:18.520 --> 0:40:19.360
<v Speaker 3>to unlock that value.

0:40:19.520 --> 0:40:24.239
<v Speaker 2>Excellent activist answer, thank you, what we do, that's what

0:40:24.280 --> 0:40:26.680
<v Speaker 2>you do. The final question of the one that I

0:40:26.680 --> 0:40:29.600
<v Speaker 2>have to ask everybody on this podcast, and mostly I

0:40:29.640 --> 0:40:31.160
<v Speaker 2>know which way people are going to go, but I

0:40:31.200 --> 0:40:33.080
<v Speaker 2>don't know which way you're going to go on this one.

0:40:33.600 --> 0:40:36.879
<v Speaker 2>If I gave you the choice over a ten year

0:40:36.920 --> 0:40:39.520
<v Speaker 2>period of holding one I said and one I said only,

0:40:40.760 --> 0:40:45.040
<v Speaker 2>and I made you pick between gold and bitcoin. Which

0:40:45.040 --> 0:40:45.800
<v Speaker 2>would you choose?

0:40:46.480 --> 0:40:50.319
<v Speaker 3>Well, it's never bitcoins, so whatever the other often is.

0:40:52.000 --> 0:40:53.680
<v Speaker 3>And I know that's a predictable answer.

0:40:53.840 --> 0:40:56.359
<v Speaker 2>In many No, it wasn't predictable. Most people don't say

0:40:56.400 --> 0:40:58.320
<v Speaker 2>never bitcoin. So tell me why I never bitcoin? We

0:40:58.360 --> 0:40:59.759
<v Speaker 2>got it, we get a little our. Well, I don't

0:40:59.760 --> 0:41:02.200
<v Speaker 2>really know enough about it, but going to ongoing gold bitcoin,

0:41:02.520 --> 0:41:04.440
<v Speaker 2>you've been very clear, So I'd love to hear a

0:41:04.480 --> 0:41:05.239
<v Speaker 2>little more about that.

0:41:05.719 --> 0:41:11.240
<v Speaker 3>Bitcoin is a speculative asset that you know, has has

0:41:11.280 --> 0:41:15.000
<v Speaker 3>no basis to trade one way or another. In my mind,

0:41:15.120 --> 0:41:18.080
<v Speaker 3>it really has no intrinsic value. By the way, gold

0:41:18.120 --> 0:41:20.560
<v Speaker 3>doesn't eat either, but at least gold has been around

0:41:20.560 --> 0:41:23.360
<v Speaker 3>for thousands of years, and at one point, you know,

0:41:23.840 --> 0:41:28.920
<v Speaker 3>was was the underlier of some major global currencies. And

0:41:29.000 --> 0:41:34.320
<v Speaker 3>so you know, I just think bitcoin. It's really interesting

0:41:34.320 --> 0:41:37.239
<v Speaker 3>when you hear these evangelists talk about bitcoin and talk

0:41:37.280 --> 0:41:40.440
<v Speaker 3>about fiat currencies, and you know, you look at the

0:41:40.560 --> 0:41:47.480
<v Speaker 3>US dollar. Americans spend five point five trillion dollars a

0:41:47.640 --> 0:41:52.960
<v Speaker 3>year on US taxes. Until the IRS starts accepting something

0:41:53.040 --> 0:41:57.680
<v Speaker 3>other than the US dollar as payment. The US dollar

0:41:57.760 --> 0:41:59.920
<v Speaker 3>isn't gone anywhere. I mean it, it is it is

0:42:00.239 --> 0:42:04.640
<v Speaker 3>it is the you know, all all this this this

0:42:04.760 --> 0:42:09.839
<v Speaker 3>idea that that the US dollar has no fundamental value, Well,

0:42:09.960 --> 0:42:17.360
<v Speaker 3>it underlies the world's biggest economy. Now, I think from there,

0:42:17.560 --> 0:42:20.600
<v Speaker 3>you know, you can look at currency by currency and

0:42:21.000 --> 0:42:24.239
<v Speaker 3>try to think about, you know, what's the fundamental value currencies.

0:42:24.280 --> 0:42:28.440
<v Speaker 3>But bitcoins certainly just doesn't belong in the conversation. It's

0:42:28.480 --> 0:42:30.680
<v Speaker 3>not a real asset. It looks like a real asset

0:42:30.719 --> 0:42:32.799
<v Speaker 3>in some ways, but but it's fundamentally not.

0:42:33.280 --> 0:42:35.600
<v Speaker 2>If I were to be incredibly generous, because it's you

0:42:35.680 --> 0:42:38.520
<v Speaker 2>and this has been a really great conversation and say

0:42:38.520 --> 0:42:40.760
<v Speaker 2>to you that it didn't have to be bitcoin or gold,

0:42:41.160 --> 0:42:44.480
<v Speaker 2>you could choose one other asset clus to hold for

0:42:44.520 --> 0:42:45.080
<v Speaker 2>a decade.

0:42:45.560 --> 0:42:49.320
<v Speaker 3>What would that be, Yeah, that'd be That'd be easy.

0:42:49.800 --> 0:42:52.719
<v Speaker 2>UKUS Global equity is nice, Vanguard ETF.

0:42:52.920 --> 0:42:58.920
<v Speaker 3>I think the easy decision is owning SPI. You know,

0:42:58.960 --> 0:43:02.040
<v Speaker 3>global equities would be you know, would be a close second.

0:43:02.040 --> 0:43:04.280
<v Speaker 2>Thank you so much, Absolutely brilliant, really.

0:43:04.160 --> 0:43:05.360
<v Speaker 3>Nice to enjoy the conversation.

0:43:06.880 --> 0:43:08.799
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for listening to this week's Marin Talks Money. We

0:43:08.920 --> 0:43:10.680
<v Speaker 2>will be back next week. In the meantime. If you

0:43:10.800 --> 0:43:13.560
<v Speaker 2>like our show, rate review and subscribe wherever you listen

0:43:13.560 --> 0:43:16.239
<v Speaker 2>to podcasts, and keep sending your questions or comments to

0:43:16.320 --> 0:43:18.960
<v Speaker 2>Marriorn Money at Bloomberg dot net. This episode was hosted

0:43:19.000 --> 0:43:21.640
<v Speaker 2>by me Maren's amst web. It was produced by Samasadi

0:43:21.680 --> 0:43:24.120
<v Speaker 2>and Moses and Bazil thanks to lead Maidar