WEBVTT - Citadel CEO Ken Griffin Talks Trump, AI & The Economy 0:00:02.480 --> 0:00:07.360 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, Radio News. 0:00:08.119 --> 0:00:09.520 Kent a fantastic conference. 0:00:09.560 --> 0:00:14.239 We talked about geopolitics, regulation, the Trump administration, Europe. So 0:00:14.280 --> 0:00:16.319 there's nothing at all going on, and we have forty 0:00:16.360 --> 0:00:17.280 five minutes to try. 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:19.400 And put the world to rights. So let's start about 0:00:19.440 --> 0:00:20.079 the markets. 0:00:20.360 --> 0:00:21.959 What do you think the markets are seeing and not 0:00:22.120 --> 0:00:23.000 seeing right now? 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:28.120 So the markets are seeing the enthusiasm that the Trump 0:00:28.160 --> 0:00:32.760 administration has created in the American investing public and in 0:00:32.800 --> 0:00:33.599 corporate America. 0:00:33.760 --> 0:00:36.720 I mean, we'll get into some policy details in a. 0:00:36.720 --> 0:00:40.919 Few minutes, but it's important to understand that this administration 0:00:41.280 --> 0:00:45.800 is clearly trying to encourage economic growth in the United States. 0:00:47.080 --> 0:00:50.600 They are pursuing a set of policies to reindustrialize America, 0:00:51.440 --> 0:00:56.920 and they are unquestionably interested in America's prosperity in a 0:00:56.960 --> 0:01:00.240 way that we have rarely seen from an administration in 0:01:00.360 --> 0:01:04.880 years past. Secondly, the Trump administration is very much aligned 0:01:04.920 --> 0:01:06.880 with seeing the success of the American worker. 0:01:07.400 --> 0:01:10.200 So a number of the policies that are being. 0:01:09.959 --> 0:01:15.600 Effectuated really are about the average American family feeling that 0:01:15.680 --> 0:01:19.800 life is better and working better for them. This backdrop 0:01:20.280 --> 0:01:23.959 is fueling much of the enthusiasm that we see in 0:01:24.040 --> 0:01:25.959 markets in the United States. 0:01:26.440 --> 0:01:26.920 And then, of. 0:01:26.880 --> 0:01:31.480 Course we're on a program of both fiscal and monetary 0:01:31.560 --> 0:01:34.440 stimulus that you would expect to see in the middle 0:01:34.480 --> 0:01:38.399 of a recession. We're seeing right here right now in 0:01:38.480 --> 0:01:42.400 a period of near full employment several years. 0:01:42.120 --> 0:01:43.000 Into the business cycle. 0:01:43.120 --> 0:01:46.240 So we're definitely on a bit of a sugar high 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:47.600 in the US economy right now. 0:01:47.720 --> 0:01:50.880 So broadly have markets moved away from the terriff issues. 0:01:51.160 --> 0:01:53.240 That the teriff issue is pretty much in the rear 0:01:53.320 --> 0:01:56.120 view mirror right now from the perspective of the market 0:01:56.200 --> 0:01:56.840 day and out. 0:01:57.080 --> 0:01:57.240 Now. 0:01:57.280 --> 0:02:02.080 The issues that relate to tariffsicular high inflation are yet 0:02:02.120 --> 0:02:02.880 to be resolved. 0:02:04.040 --> 0:02:05.520 There's a sense of. 0:02:08.639 --> 0:02:11.679 Almost inevitability that the inflation genie is going to go 0:02:11.760 --> 0:02:14.560 back in the bottle. But I think that's a very 0:02:14.600 --> 0:02:19.000 premature conclusion. If you look at both the immigration policies, 0:02:20.919 --> 0:02:24.320 the fiscal policies, and the military policies, it's a very 0:02:24.400 --> 0:02:27.720 pro inflationary environment, and I think the markets are just 0:02:27.880 --> 0:02:33.720 way too calm about the prospects of a substantial move 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:34.560 higher in inflation. 0:02:35.000 --> 0:02:38.200 Is the FED right to focus on the jobs labor 0:02:38.240 --> 0:02:40.160 market instead of inflation. 0:02:41.600 --> 0:02:47.160 So I think that is a really interesting debate. And 0:02:47.400 --> 0:02:50.200 I remember when when Janet Yellen became the Chair of 0:02:50.200 --> 0:02:53.320 the FED, she had a very simple framework that she 0:02:53.480 --> 0:02:55.959 thought about. She thought about the fact that the US 0:02:55.960 --> 0:02:59.000 had gone through one significant recession and the risk of 0:02:59.040 --> 0:03:04.919 another recession and the ensuing job loss and human capital 0:03:06.400 --> 0:03:10.200 atrophy that would go with a second, adjacent or nearby 0:03:10.320 --> 0:03:13.480 recession would be incredibly. 0:03:12.840 --> 0:03:15.239 Damaging for millions of Americans. 0:03:15.520 --> 0:03:17.640 You lose your job twice in just a few years, 0:03:18.040 --> 0:03:21.440 you really do become separated. 0:03:20.880 --> 0:03:23.120 From the broader employment market. 0:03:24.080 --> 0:03:27.520 And that was the lens through which she made a 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:31.640 number of decisions to be in both at the time 0:03:31.720 --> 0:03:35.800 and in retrospect, reasonably dubbish in terms of managing industry 0:03:35.880 --> 0:03:40.040 policy right here right now, I think that argument is 0:03:40.080 --> 0:03:42.960 a bit hard to reach. And the FEDS trying to 0:03:43.000 --> 0:03:47.320 make a decision between buying some downside protection on the 0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:50.640 labor market and managing inflation, and I think they're making 0:03:50.680 --> 0:03:54.120 a decision that puts them at risk if we do 0:03:54.200 --> 0:03:57.880 see inflation reaccelerate early into twenty twenty six, is that. 0:03:57.800 --> 0:04:01.320 What you're expecting or reacceleration inflation? Why has it not 0:04:01.400 --> 0:04:04.760 played out like many many people thought that behind. 0:04:04.800 --> 0:04:08.200 I mean, we're still well about target, right, I mean, 0:04:08.960 --> 0:04:12.480 let's just cut to the chase. Inflation is substantially about 0:04:12.520 --> 0:04:16.039 target and substantially above target and all. 0:04:15.880 --> 0:04:17.279 Forecasts for next year. 0:04:18.200 --> 0:04:20.520 I mean, it's part of the reason the dollars depreciated 0:04:21.080 --> 0:04:23.320 by about ten percent in the first half of this year. 0:04:23.360 --> 0:04:27.240 It's the single biggest decline in the US dollar in 0:04:27.320 --> 0:04:32.320 six months in fifty years. Gold is at record highs, 0:04:33.240 --> 0:04:39.479 and the appreciation in other dollar substitutes, to use that 0:04:39.480 --> 0:04:45.520 word loosely, and items like crypto for example, is unbelievable. 0:04:45.920 --> 0:04:51.000 So we're seeing substantial asset inflation away from the dollar 0:04:51.160 --> 0:04:54.600 as people are looking for ways to effectively de dollarize 0:04:54.680 --> 0:04:57.400 or de risk their portfolios visa the US sovereign risk. 0:04:58.080 --> 0:04:59.160 Are you really seeing that? 0:05:00.720 --> 0:05:03.080 Just check the price of goal. Well, I mean, I 0:05:03.120 --> 0:05:04.120 don't have to look very hard. 0:05:04.320 --> 0:05:06.839 Its own it's a life of its own. Gold. 0:05:07.480 --> 0:05:09.119 No, but it's a life of its own. 0:05:09.360 --> 0:05:13.799 As you see sovereigns around the world, central banks around 0:05:13.839 --> 0:05:17.320 the world, as you see individual investors around the world go, 0:05:17.440 --> 0:05:20.479 you know what, I now view gold as a safe 0:05:20.480 --> 0:05:23.800 harbor asset in a way that the dollar used to 0:05:23.920 --> 0:05:24.760 be viewed. 0:05:25.960 --> 0:05:27.719 That's what's really concerning to me. 0:05:28.480 --> 0:05:32.200 And there's been plenty of published research in recent weeks 0:05:32.600 --> 0:05:36.840 months about foreign investors now when they buy US equities, 0:05:37.360 --> 0:05:39.840 hedging the returns back to their local currency. 0:05:41.320 --> 0:05:44.279 So that again is a bifurcation of I'm going to 0:05:44.320 --> 0:05:44.680 bet on. 0:05:44.640 --> 0:05:48.080 American business, but I want to immunize some of my 0:05:48.279 --> 0:05:50.520 sovereign exposure to the United States. 0:05:51.520 --> 0:05:54.600 Can the previous panels talking about the shutdown, given where 0:05:54.600 --> 0:05:57.120 we are in the shutdown, can the FED properly do 0:05:57.200 --> 0:05:59.000 its job at the end of the month in these 0:05:59.080 --> 0:06:01.720 circumstances where we may not have enough data. 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:04.840 I don't think the data over a few weeks should 0:06:04.880 --> 0:06:07.080 really be that determinative to the FED. 0:06:07.839 --> 0:06:09.640 I mean, that's sort of over. 0:06:10.839 --> 0:06:14.279 Overgrandizes what the impact or importance to that data is, 0:06:14.320 --> 0:06:18.039 particularly with the sampling errors that's intrinsic in how that 0:06:18.160 --> 0:06:21.960 data is produced and compiled for the FED. I just 0:06:21.960 --> 0:06:25.000 think that's a bit of a misplaced warrior concern. 0:06:25.360 --> 0:06:27.360 Do you worry about the shutdowns? Will stop? 0:06:28.240 --> 0:06:28.520 Look? 0:06:29.040 --> 0:06:31.440 The shutdown is symbolic of a different problem, which is 0:06:31.480 --> 0:06:37.360 the dysfunction between the Republican and Democratic Party on resolving 0:06:38.160 --> 0:06:39.560 issues with respect to the budget. 0:06:39.560 --> 0:06:40.839 The United States of America. 0:06:41.320 --> 0:06:45.280 And to be clear, both parties today are guilty of 0:06:45.320 --> 0:06:46.640 just profligate spending. 0:06:47.120 --> 0:06:47.960 You know, as I said at. 0:06:47.880 --> 0:06:51.919 The start, the US fiscal situation is that of a 0:06:52.040 --> 0:06:54.480 nation that's trying to work its way out of a recession. 0:06:55.560 --> 0:06:58.960 Except the reality is we're multiple years into a very 0:06:59.040 --> 0:07:02.240 high period of growth. This is where we should. 0:07:01.960 --> 0:07:04.560 Be running a deficit of you know, in the Clinton day, 0:07:04.560 --> 0:07:07.400 as we ran a surplus at this point in the 0:07:07.400 --> 0:07:10.240 business cycle, We're now running a deficit of close to 0:07:10.360 --> 0:07:13.920 six six to seven percent, depending upon where a number 0:07:13.920 --> 0:07:14.520 of things land. 0:07:15.480 --> 0:07:17.840 That is just completely irresponsible. 0:07:18.800 --> 0:07:21.600 And so what's amazing is we're having a shutdown debate 0:07:21.640 --> 0:07:25.200 over the scheme of things a relatively small amount of money, 0:07:25.320 --> 0:07:28.280 and neither party is stepping up the plate to deal 0:07:28.320 --> 0:07:31.320 with or grapple with the reality that the United States 0:07:31.520 --> 0:07:34.480 needs to endure a fair amount of fiscal reform to 0:07:34.560 --> 0:07:36.640 be in a path for long term sustainability. 0:07:37.160 --> 0:07:38.559 Why is it not being talked about? 0:07:39.040 --> 0:07:43.520 It's politically unpopular, and unfortunately politics have gotten shorter and 0:07:43.560 --> 0:07:47.760 shorter and shorter in horizon. You know, can you imagine that, 0:07:47.880 --> 0:07:49.880 Like I said in the Clinton day, as they signed 0:07:49.880 --> 0:07:53.280 a budget with a surplus, and yet that was in 0:07:53.320 --> 0:07:57.040 our lifetime. It's been a long time since we've seen 0:07:57.040 --> 0:08:01.200 that level of discipline in Washington around managing the affairs 0:08:01.200 --> 0:08:02.200 of the US economy. 0:08:02.960 --> 0:08:05.760 You worry a lot about debt, or you worry about debt, 0:08:05.800 --> 0:08:06.600 what's the way I want? 0:08:06.800 --> 0:08:08.720 I mean, you must also, like we all have to 0:08:08.720 --> 0:08:10.240 worry about the level of debt we have in the 0:08:10.320 --> 0:08:14.560 United States, and the market is pretty cool about it. 0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:18.920 The market is we'll look past it for a few years. 0:08:19.760 --> 0:08:23.119 But if you go out with anybody to talk about 0:08:23.120 --> 0:08:26.280 what they worry about with respect to the US economy, 0:08:26.400 --> 0:08:31.600 the fiscal situation is almost always top of list. So 0:08:31.840 --> 0:08:33.680 you know, I think there's one thing to keep in mind, 0:08:33.720 --> 0:08:37.400 which is acid prices reflect a level of exuberance that 0:08:37.440 --> 0:08:38.120 we see today. 0:08:39.200 --> 0:08:40.880 But I got to tell you, if you're out with 0:08:41.600 --> 0:08:42.640 anybody who's. 0:08:42.400 --> 0:08:46.880 The asset manager business top of this concerns, the level 0:08:46.880 --> 0:08:50.480 of spending in Washington is always top three, if. 0:08:50.360 --> 0:08:51.480 Not number one, on the list. 0:08:51.880 --> 0:08:52.680 What's the way out? 0:08:53.720 --> 0:08:57.520 Well, the way out is we need I mean, first 0:08:57.520 --> 0:09:00.320 and foremost, growth is an important part of the way out, 0:09:01.200 --> 0:09:04.360 and this is where the Trump's administration focus on deregulation 0:09:04.559 --> 0:09:09.400 is so important. It's so important in terms of creating 0:09:09.760 --> 0:09:14.360 an environment in which growth can exist, like really important 0:09:14.800 --> 0:09:19.120 unleash unleashed the animal spirits in America. And the one 0:09:19.200 --> 0:09:22.920 thing about this country different than most countries is the 0:09:23.080 --> 0:09:27.000 entraal class in this country is incredibly ambitious and it 0:09:27.080 --> 0:09:31.360 is really able to make profound changes happen. I mean, 0:09:31.400 --> 0:09:33.839 if you look at if you look across our investment portfolios, 0:09:34.800 --> 0:09:38.600 a substantial portion of all the money we invest is 0:09:38.640 --> 0:09:42.880 in business has started in the last fifty years. I mean, 0:09:42.920 --> 0:09:48.840 it's remarkable the wealth created in this country by newly 0:09:48.920 --> 0:09:49.800 forgmned businesses. 0:09:50.000 --> 0:09:53.559 It's just stunny. It's the envy of the world. 0:09:53.760 --> 0:09:58.720 And the Trump administration is certainly taking steps to help 0:09:58.920 --> 0:10:05.320 encourage that canntinued American success story. But we also need 0:10:05.480 --> 0:10:10.400 to give real consideration to tax policy and to spending policies. 0:10:11.080 --> 0:10:14.640 And I think that the the how are they rebranding, 0:10:14.800 --> 0:10:17.960 rebranding the big beautiful Bill at this point, do you 0:10:18.000 --> 0:10:18.800 have the rebranding is. 0:10:18.800 --> 0:10:19.400 Going to be yet? 0:10:19.640 --> 0:10:20.640 How would you rebrand it? 0:10:21.400 --> 0:10:21.559 Well? 0:10:21.600 --> 0:10:23.760 I mean, I don't think there's a nice way to 0:10:23.760 --> 0:10:31.640 put lipstick on that pig. I mean it's a pro 0:10:31.760 --> 0:10:36.199 cyclical tax cut late in the economic cycle. And you know, 0:10:36.240 --> 0:10:38.280 everybody in this room, like, let's be clear, no one 0:10:38.320 --> 0:10:41.000 wants to pay more in taxes. But if you're not 0:10:41.280 --> 0:10:45.360 on a sustainable set of tax policies in the best 0:10:45.360 --> 0:10:48.400 of times, what policies will that. 0:10:48.480 --> 0:10:50.040 Unleash in the worst of times? 0:10:50.480 --> 0:10:52.640 You know, for example, the United States head towards a 0:10:52.679 --> 0:10:57.320 wealth tax when the inevitable bills come due, will be 0:10:57.400 --> 0:11:00.440 head towards tax rates that we last saw in Europe 0:11:00.480 --> 0:11:04.520 sixty seventy eighty percent as the inevitable bills come do 0:11:04.960 --> 0:11:09.640 what is the long term consequence of these policies right here, 0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:11.720 right now? And I think people are very concerned about 0:11:11.720 --> 0:11:14.839 what that might be in ten or fifteen or twenty years. 0:11:15.200 --> 0:11:17.120 How to inheritance taxes have to. 0:11:17.160 --> 0:11:20.880 Change in light of the tremendous amount of wealth held 0:11:20.880 --> 0:11:23.640 by the baby boomers and the tremendous amount of debt 0:11:23.679 --> 0:11:24.920 that their generation. 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:26.040 Was a part of. 0:11:26.800 --> 0:11:28.560 So I think these are going to be really interesting 0:11:28.600 --> 0:11:32.840 policy debates that will merge seven years, ten years, fifteen 0:11:32.920 --> 0:11:36.800 years down the road, which could have some pretty adverse consequences. 0:11:36.840 --> 0:11:40.120 I mean, particularly for American non for realism today is 0:11:40.160 --> 0:11:41.840 not sure. You're like, if I build a great business, 0:11:41.840 --> 0:11:43.680 I will get to keep a substantial amount of wealth 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:46.120 I create. If you go back to a world of 0:11:46.720 --> 0:11:48.880 seventy percent tax rates that we had in this country 0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:52.120 in this last century, maybe throwing a wealth tax for 0:11:52.200 --> 0:11:56.280 good measure you may really impact that zeitgeist that is 0:11:56.360 --> 0:11:59.040 so powerful in terms of our economic prosperity. 0:12:00.120 --> 0:12:02.000 Do you see the animal spirits in the US because 0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:05.160 a lot of chief executives say, look, they like some 0:12:05.240 --> 0:12:06.840 of the policies, but there are also a lot of 0:12:06.840 --> 0:12:10.120 policies it could be visas or others, and because they're 0:12:10.200 --> 0:12:12.640 uncertain where the next one comes from, they're a little 0:12:12.640 --> 0:12:13.720 bit reluctant to spend. 0:12:13.800 --> 0:12:15.640 Right now, Well, I mean, let's be clear that the 0:12:15.679 --> 0:12:17.760 Trump administration has been able to give us a lot 0:12:17.760 --> 0:12:20.480 that we love and a lot that we hate. Right, 0:12:20.520 --> 0:12:26.600 They're an equal opportunity giver. And on the pro side 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:31.480 is clearly the push for deregulation is clearly a message 0:12:31.600 --> 0:12:36.480 to American whether it's small business owners or entrepreneurs, that 0:12:36.640 --> 0:12:41.400 this country wants to see our commercial class succeed. That's 0:12:41.520 --> 0:12:45.120 a foreign language to the Biden administration. I mean, they 0:12:45.200 --> 0:12:48.880 had no connectivity with American business. The Trump administration is 0:12:49.640 --> 0:12:53.000 very connected in a very different and profound way. But 0:12:53.120 --> 0:12:57.840 having said that, the terror policy has had incredibly uneven 0:12:58.040 --> 0:13:02.520 impacts across the commercial landscape. I mean, I really do 0:13:02.679 --> 0:13:05.760 feel sorry for the small and medium sized businesses that 0:13:05.760 --> 0:13:08.640 that are single source in terms of their goods from 0:13:09.040 --> 0:13:12.719 from Asia who are now seeing tariffs that are at 0:13:12.800 --> 0:13:15.360 levels that are unimaginable in the context of their business model. 0:13:15.800 --> 0:13:17.880 They're really going to be in a world of hurt 0:13:18.080 --> 0:13:20.920 over the months ahead, and they're not going to have 0:13:21.000 --> 0:13:25.000 the flexibility that you know, a large conglomerate will have 0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:29.040 and being able to re architects, supply chains and navigate around. 0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:29.800 These these issues. 0:13:30.200 --> 0:13:33.200 So that that's an area that's that's quite painful to watch. 0:13:33.440 --> 0:13:34.560 The impact on farmers. 0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:38.960 I mean that the Chinese have voted very clearly to 0:13:39.000 --> 0:13:42.040 buy their food products from other countries and it's really 0:13:42.120 --> 0:13:45.920 hitting the American farming community quite hard. That's that's painful 0:13:45.960 --> 0:13:50.760 to watch play out. The immigration policies, I must say 0:13:50.760 --> 0:13:55.320 I scratched my head over we we as a nation 0:13:56.400 --> 0:13:59.760 are facing a birth rate that's that's below that required 0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:03.400 to make contain our population. So unless the United States 0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:06.680 actually wants to shrink in size over the next fifty years. 0:14:07.480 --> 0:14:10.720 We're going to have to permit immigration, and I would 0:14:10.760 --> 0:14:14.040 think that our policies would be around trying to encourage 0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:16.880 the best and brightest around the world coming to the 0:14:16.960 --> 0:14:20.360 United States and building careers and building families and building 0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:24.120 roots in our country. You know, I've long said every 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:26.360 single student in the United States with a STEM degree 0:14:27.040 --> 0:14:30.160 should get a green card, staple that diploma and a 0:14:30.240 --> 0:14:33.720 path to citizenship. You know, roughly fifty percent of all 0:14:33.800 --> 0:14:37.440 the Silicon Valley startups are started by immigrants. 0:14:37.760 --> 0:14:39.920 I mean, it's just remarkable. 0:14:39.720 --> 0:14:42.800 How this country has won in the global war for talent, 0:14:43.320 --> 0:14:48.000 and we should continue to pursue that aggressively. And then 0:14:47.440 --> 0:14:50.280 on the millions of people who came across the borders 0:14:50.320 --> 0:14:52.480 in the last several years, you know, I applaud the 0:14:52.520 --> 0:14:57.280 President for controlling our borders. It was really important to 0:14:57.400 --> 0:15:02.400 stop that flow of illegal immigrants. And unfortunately, as you 0:15:02.440 --> 0:15:04.840 and I both know, a number of countries in South 0:15:04.880 --> 0:15:07.520 and Central America didn't send us their best and brightest. 0:15:07.520 --> 0:15:09.400 They did empty their prisons and send people to the 0:15:09.480 --> 0:15:10.280 United States that. 0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:12.000 We really should not have welcomed. Warmly. 0:15:12.680 --> 0:15:15.400 So I applaud the President for shutting the borders, but 0:15:15.520 --> 0:15:19.840 those who've come to this country, who have placed roots here, 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:24.120 who are working and contributing to our economy, we should 0:15:24.200 --> 0:15:26.240 find a path for them to be able to stay 0:15:26.240 --> 0:15:29.560 here and continue to contribute. They're important in agriculture, they're 0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:31.120 important in construction, They're important in. 0:15:31.640 --> 0:15:34.760 The leisure industries. They do a lot of jobs that will. 0:15:34.640 --> 0:15:38.880 Be damn near impossible for us to fill with American 0:15:39.360 --> 0:15:40.640 American born labors. 0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:42.160 That's just gonna be really tough. 0:15:42.800 --> 0:15:44.840 And what gets lost in some of the debate is 0:15:45.360 --> 0:15:49.760 they're not taking jobs from Americans by and large, they're 0:15:49.760 --> 0:15:53.720 actually playing critical roles that help American businesses thrive and succeed, 0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:56.920 that allow us to employ more people at higher wages 0:15:56.960 --> 0:15:59.880 across the broader economy. So I think when it comes 0:15:59.920 --> 0:16:02.480 to immigration were at large, I think we've come off 0:16:02.520 --> 0:16:06.440 the rails and we really do need to rethink our policies. 0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:09.400 First and foremost President is right to close the borders. 0:16:10.080 --> 0:16:12.600 But if you're at home depot in the morning looking 0:16:12.640 --> 0:16:15.040 for a job, that's not where I should be trying 0:16:15.080 --> 0:16:16.960 to find the person to deport. 0:16:17.560 --> 0:16:21.040 On attracting the best and Righteous Citadel has been doing that. 0:16:21.720 --> 0:16:23.520 Do you worry about your hiring. 0:16:23.800 --> 0:16:27.240 In the future because of the visa policy? 0:16:28.040 --> 0:16:30.160 I mean, you know, fortunately, we're. 0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:33.560 In a sector of the economy where the we're one 0:16:33.640 --> 0:16:36.720 hundred thousand dollars one time cost to hire persons not 0:16:36.880 --> 0:16:37.440 going to be. 0:16:37.440 --> 0:16:41.600 Make it or break it. I worry far more. 0:16:43.080 --> 0:16:47.280 About the brilliant student in India who doesn't come to America, 0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:51.080 or the gifted student in mathematics and physics who. 0:16:51.000 --> 0:16:52.520 Chooses to stay in China. 0:16:53.240 --> 0:16:55.880 I mean I was in China shortly after Deep Sek 0:16:55.960 --> 0:16:58.040 was announced. Let me tell you what the Chinese were 0:16:58.120 --> 0:17:03.440 profoundly proud of. Not one author on Deep Seek was 0:17:03.560 --> 0:17:08.760 educated in America. It was a point of national pride 0:17:09.200 --> 0:17:12.880 in every meeting I went to, was the profound pride 0:17:13.359 --> 0:17:18.240 that not one person who authored Deep Seek was educated 0:17:18.800 --> 0:17:19.480 in America. 0:17:22.119 --> 0:17:26.320 That has a lot of consequences, has dire consequences longer term. 0:17:26.520 --> 0:17:29.720 What are you expecting from the Trumpe meeting that we 0:17:29.800 --> 0:17:30.720 may get before. 0:17:30.480 --> 0:17:31.160 The end of the year. 0:17:33.080 --> 0:17:35.520 I mean, what I would love to see is Dayton. 0:17:35.680 --> 0:17:38.600 I would like to see the relationship reach a point 0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:44.080 of stability. Right now, it's two great superpowers that are 0:17:44.240 --> 0:17:48.800 trying to find a new equlibrium, And so long as 0:17:48.800 --> 0:17:52.720 we are both competing from a position of self interest 0:17:52.800 --> 0:17:55.960 in a world of seven billion people in a rapidly 0:17:56.040 --> 0:18:00.280 changing environment, you're gonna have points of friction. And would 0:18:00.280 --> 0:18:02.680 be wonderful to see that that come later this year, 0:18:03.240 --> 0:18:06.000 that President she and President Trump are able to find 0:18:06.560 --> 0:18:08.960 in some sense a more constructive set of rules of 0:18:09.000 --> 0:18:12.760 engagement that both countries in our position to both prosper 0:18:12.840 --> 0:18:15.360 and to meet the needs of their citizens and have 0:18:15.520 --> 0:18:18.560 less tension between our two superpowers day in and day out. 0:18:19.000 --> 0:18:20.800 Do you worry about the world fragmenting? 0:18:22.000 --> 0:18:24.040 I know the world. The world has fragmented. 0:18:25.320 --> 0:18:27.360 We're put to a point of no return. 0:18:28.720 --> 0:18:34.480 So the question is is what is the long term 0:18:34.880 --> 0:18:38.439 ability for the United States to play a pivotal and 0:18:38.600 --> 0:18:44.719 influential role in the development of Africa, South America and 0:18:44.800 --> 0:18:48.840 most of Asia Asia ex the most developed countries. And 0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:53.280 I go to Africa several times a year. Chinese is 0:18:53.359 --> 0:18:56.120 generally speaking in that in that continent provide the power plants, 0:18:57.520 --> 0:19:02.840 they build the airports, they provide the cellar networks. So 0:19:02.880 --> 0:19:04.760 when you turn on your phone, turn on the lights 0:19:05.040 --> 0:19:07.879 and go anywhere by plane, and it's all provided for 0:19:07.960 --> 0:19:08.879 by the Chinese. 0:19:09.440 --> 0:19:11.520 You tell me whose orbit that country is in. 0:19:14.359 --> 0:19:17.080 The United States used to control those orbits pretty carefully. 0:19:17.119 --> 0:19:19.560 You know, General Electric was an incredible source not just 0:19:19.600 --> 0:19:24.040 of industrial might, but of policy might, because it used 0:19:24.040 --> 0:19:28.400 to be companies like General Electric that really projected American 0:19:28.480 --> 0:19:31.960 power around the world. And I would really like to 0:19:31.960 --> 0:19:34.520 see the United States be in a position to reassert 0:19:35.040 --> 0:19:42.040 that form of interconnectedness, not just through foreign policy, but 0:19:42.119 --> 0:19:46.480 through industrial connectivity. And unfortunately, as you know, the history 0:19:46.480 --> 0:19:50.320 of tariffs is that companies tend to retreat back to 0:19:50.359 --> 0:19:51.679 their domestic market. 0:19:53.040 --> 0:19:54.240 We're to be perfectly blunt. 0:19:54.240 --> 0:19:57.960 They can provide an inferior product at a higher price 0:19:58.040 --> 0:20:02.520 point to a disillusion can and they ultimately become. 0:20:02.359 --> 0:20:04.080 Uncompetitive on the world stage. 0:20:04.840 --> 0:20:09.080 So ironically, the administration is pushed towards higher tariffs. If 0:20:09.080 --> 0:20:11.359 we just look at the history where this has been 0:20:11.400 --> 0:20:17.520 done around the world, it's usually a story of retrenchment 0:20:17.560 --> 0:20:22.120 or retracement from your global position to a more local position. 0:20:22.440 --> 0:20:24.960 That's the wrong direction of travel for the United States 0:20:24.960 --> 0:20:25.720 of America. 0:20:25.920 --> 0:20:28.439 Do you tell this to the current administration? How do 0:20:28.440 --> 0:20:29.719 you navigate that relationship. 0:20:30.800 --> 0:20:33.400 I have a team of people who are in constant 0:20:33.440 --> 0:20:36.840 dialogue with members of the Administration, the House, and the Senate, 0:20:36.880 --> 0:20:39.920 and we've been pretty vocal on this over the course 0:20:39.920 --> 0:20:41.920 of the last several months. I mean, you know, from 0:20:41.960 --> 0:20:48.160 my perspective, the right economic policies, the right policies on immigration, 0:20:48.680 --> 0:20:52.680 the right policies and education, the right policies on culture 0:20:53.520 --> 0:20:56.240 can have a profoundly positive impact on the United States 0:20:56.280 --> 0:21:00.720 for decades to come. And with one part control, which 0:21:00.760 --> 0:21:03.840 is relatively rare in American history, you do have a 0:21:03.880 --> 0:21:08.040 two year window here to effectuate those changes and to 0:21:08.200 --> 0:21:11.719 really to help the president realize his dream of making 0:21:11.760 --> 0:21:12.760 America great again. 0:21:13.200 --> 0:21:14.800 I mean, I do believe that. 0:21:15.040 --> 0:21:17.880 His actions and choices come from a from a from 0:21:17.920 --> 0:21:21.119 a good place, but I do wish that that he 0:21:21.160 --> 0:21:26.200 had better advisors that were better grounded in economic theory, 0:21:26.200 --> 0:21:30.639 in particular to lead this country to a more prosperous future. 0:21:30.480 --> 0:21:33.880 There's been a lot of talk about FED independence. Does 0:21:33.920 --> 0:21:36.640 that do I mean, how should we view that? 0:21:36.720 --> 0:21:38.920 Is it noise or is there real danger that? 0:21:39.280 --> 0:21:42.800 Look, I think it's a it's a it's a it's 0:21:42.840 --> 0:21:46.040 a very different Let me just give you this succinct answer. 0:21:46.560 --> 0:21:48.320 Why does FED independence matter? 0:21:48.800 --> 0:21:51.280 Because from time to time, the FED has to make 0:21:51.400 --> 0:21:58.680 choices that are really politically unpopular. That's why you want 0:21:58.720 --> 0:22:01.520 FED independence. You want the FED to be independent so 0:22:01.520 --> 0:22:04.359 that when you have to raise rates to break the 0:22:04.400 --> 0:22:07.919 back of inflation, it's going to happen. And if the 0:22:07.960 --> 0:22:12.639 FED is viewed as being politically captive, which politician do 0:22:12.720 --> 0:22:15.720