WEBVTT - Ukraine:  Time Is Not On Their Side.  Josh Rogin Talks to A&G.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh, I say, well, I just heard a big bang

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<v Speaker 1>right here behind me. I thought we shouldn't have done

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<v Speaker 1>the life shot here. There are big explosions taking place

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<v Speaker 1>in Kiev right now. It's like I hear rumblings right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh there's another. I've got a flat jacket right here.

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<v Speaker 1>Let me just get it, get it on. That was

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<v Speaker 1>a year ago today as the war started in Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 1>Russia bombing Kiev, and remember our own government was saying

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<v Speaker 1>it was going to likely fall in ninety six hours,

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<v Speaker 1>and we offered to get Zalinski and other leaders of

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<v Speaker 1>the government out of there, and he famously said, I

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<v Speaker 1>need ammunition, a not a ride. And he put out

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<v Speaker 1>that video that night of him and other leaders in

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<v Speaker 1>the government in the streets and keeps saying we're not

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<v Speaker 1>going anywhere. We're staying here, which is main not only brave,

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<v Speaker 1>but a history making moment. We're perhaps world changing moment.

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<v Speaker 1>And so the Ukrainians held off the Russians. It's now

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<v Speaker 1>been a year, but is time on Ukraine's side. Josh Rogan,

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<v Speaker 1>one of our favorite columnists if you don't read them

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<v Speaker 1>and follow them, Ushity Rates for the Washington Post, is

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<v Speaker 1>writing on that very topic lately. Josh, how are you, sir? Great,

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<v Speaker 1>great to be back with you. Yeah, So I read

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<v Speaker 1>your column last night. I just thought it was so good.

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<v Speaker 1>We got to have you on today. You're taking issue

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<v Speaker 1>with President Biden's mantra of we're with it until the end.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, we're going to stick this out. That whole

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<v Speaker 1>thing in time, as long as it takes. As long

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<v Speaker 1>as it takes in time is not on Russia's side.

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<v Speaker 1>You disagree. So it wasn't so much that I didn't disagree,

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<v Speaker 1>it's that Ukrainians disagree. And I went to Munich to

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<v Speaker 1>this thing called the Munich Security Conference, and that's where

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of Biden administration officials are celebrating their great

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<v Speaker 1>accomplishment and winning the Ukraine War, but for one uncomfortable fact,

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<v Speaker 1>which is that the Ukraine War is not yet one.

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<v Speaker 1>And the Ukrainians who were there were saying, hey, listen,

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<v Speaker 1>we really appreciate all the weapons that you've given us,

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<v Speaker 1>but the war has changed and we need different stuff now,

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<v Speaker 1>and there's an offensive coming. And when we hear as

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<v Speaker 1>long as it takes to us, that means you're settling

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<v Speaker 1>in for a long slog. But the problem for the

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<v Speaker 1>Ukrainians is that if the war takes five more years,

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<v Speaker 1>they're not going to have a country, and their economy

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<v Speaker 1>is going to be in tatters and people are dying

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<v Speaker 1>and their military is suffering every losses and they're you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it'll be a pyic victory. So you know, there's a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of sort of backslapping and handshakes and Munich about

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<v Speaker 1>how great the West did and standing up to Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's not over yet, and in fact, it's going

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<v Speaker 1>to get worse before it gets better. And clearly this

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<v Speaker 1>is more than just a rhetorical difference of how you're

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<v Speaker 1>describing something that it means. The strategy has to be

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<v Speaker 1>very different. Right. The idea is that the Ukrainians want

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<v Speaker 1>to speed up the war because they think if they

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<v Speaker 1>don't win this year, and we can talk about what

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<v Speaker 1>winning means, then it doesn't matter because they're not going

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<v Speaker 1>to have a country to stave. And the fight administration

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<v Speaker 1>is in my view, prioritizing unity with France and Germany

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<v Speaker 1>over unity with the Ukrainians. And you know, of course

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<v Speaker 1>the Europeans are hamming and hanging, that's what they do,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, but inside the Biden administration that are a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of people are like, hey, we got to give

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<v Speaker 1>them the things they need right now, which are long

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<v Speaker 1>range missiles and tanks and maybe fighter planes all then

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<v Speaker 1>that's not really the most important thing. But in the end,

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<v Speaker 1>we seem to always be a day late and a

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<v Speaker 1>dollar short. And you know that means that we have

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<v Speaker 1>a stalemate. And in that stalemate, Prutin wins because Ukrainians

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<v Speaker 1>are suffering and he gets to keep going with his

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<v Speaker 1>war and keep waiting us out. Is it basically his

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<v Speaker 1>whole plan? Yeah, I agree with you. It seems so

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<v Speaker 1>clearly true to me that that time is not on

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine's side, as the President stated the other day. And

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<v Speaker 1>this idea as long as it takes, well, it better

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<v Speaker 1>be soon or we're gonna lose. Right, Not only that,

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<v Speaker 1>American people are not going to tolerate another forever war,

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<v Speaker 1>nor should they. So the American people want to know

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<v Speaker 1>how does this end? And if I'm telling you what

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<v Speaker 1>I hear from Biden people, it's like, oh, well, maybe

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<v Speaker 1>if we candrole them into negotiations, by the time Biden

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<v Speaker 1>has to run for president again in earnest, the fighting

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<v Speaker 1>will be lower and we can say that that's kind

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<v Speaker 1>of an accomplishment. But the Ukrainians say that, first of all,

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<v Speaker 1>that's crazy because the Russians are committing crimes against humanity.

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<v Speaker 1>They're not negotiating. And second of all, wouldn't you rather

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<v Speaker 1>run on a win? Would you rather run on we

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<v Speaker 1>got it done? And Ukraine is no longer being shelves

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<v Speaker 1>all day every day because the war is still ongoing.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, the Biden people are more kind of

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<v Speaker 1>worried about the political image of winning the war than

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<v Speaker 1>actually winning the war, and the Ukrainian that's crazy. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>and I was struck by the number of Ukrainian officials

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<v Speaker 1>you talked to who said the war must be won

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<v Speaker 1>this year. That's the message. Please, mister President, say that

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<v Speaker 1>message right, and because they know that if we say that,

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<v Speaker 1>then we don't have to do it, and that means

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<v Speaker 1>giving them the things that they would need to win

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<v Speaker 1>this year. And if he's a Biden White House, you're thinking, wow,

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<v Speaker 1>if they start to win too much, maybe Putin is

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<v Speaker 1>going to go crazy and to expand the war to

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<v Speaker 1>Poland or drop a nuke on them or something. And

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<v Speaker 1>again the Ukrainians here that and they're like, no, no,

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<v Speaker 1>no, no no, we want to win. Aren't we trying to win?

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<v Speaker 1>You know? And that's the basic fundamental difference between Washington

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<v Speaker 1>and Kiev. You know, the people in the White House

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<v Speaker 1>think that, oh, eventually they're going to negotiate in a

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<v Speaker 1>way that draws the line in the middle of Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 1>and the Ukrainians are not going to do that, and

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<v Speaker 1>the Russias are not going to do that. So that's

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<v Speaker 1>kind of like a conflict inside of our foreign policy

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<v Speaker 1>that but he doesn't really want to resolve because he

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't want to do the thing that you would need

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<v Speaker 1>to do, which is to give them the weapons they

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<v Speaker 1>need to win the war. Now well, right, well you

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<v Speaker 1>brought it up yourself. What does winning look like? So

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<v Speaker 1>I can understand why the Ukrainians do not want to

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<v Speaker 1>give up an inch of their territory because, well, for

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of reasons, including the fact that if Russia

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<v Speaker 1>is still camped in Crimea and wherever, they're just going

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<v Speaker 1>to launch another offensive in a couple of years. But

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<v Speaker 1>how do you think this thing ends, right, Well, at

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<v Speaker 1>least you know, their negotiating positions should be the same. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>the Ukrainians want to say, we're gonna take every inch

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<v Speaker 1>of our territory including Crimea. Is the fighting is the

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<v Speaker 1>seas are gonna gonna happen right when that happens, Maybe not,

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<v Speaker 1>but they would at least Washington to like play along.

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<v Speaker 1>You know. It's like right now, it's sort of like

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<v Speaker 1>they're they're they're trying to convince the Russians that they're

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<v Speaker 1>capable of doing that, and the only reason the Russians

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<v Speaker 1>don't believe them is because Washington won't give them the

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<v Speaker 1>weapons they would need to do that. So how does

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<v Speaker 1>this end is a really important question. And you know,

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<v Speaker 1>what the Biden people say is it's up to the Ukrainians.

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<v Speaker 1>But then they can strain their options by withholding the

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<v Speaker 1>things that they would need to actually have that flexibility.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's the difference sort of between what the Biden

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<v Speaker 1>people say and what they do. What they say is

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<v Speaker 1>it's up to the Ukrainians to define winning. What they're

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<v Speaker 1>doing is trying to define it down by themselves. Josh

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<v Speaker 1>Rogan of the Washington Post on the line, and Josh,

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<v Speaker 1>you're one of our favorite guys to talk to about

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<v Speaker 1>China as well, and obviously they're involved now indirectly in

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<v Speaker 1>the Ukraine thing. Any thoughts on their burgeoning relationship with Russia. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of crazy talk in Washington now about oh,

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<v Speaker 1>the Chinese are so conflicted and you know, they don't

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<v Speaker 1>want to be tied down with Russia and maybe we

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<v Speaker 1>should just pull them into our orbit and all of

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<v Speaker 1>that's nonsense because it presumes that what the Chinese Communist

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<v Speaker 1>Party is telling us is true. It's true, and I

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<v Speaker 1>was in Munich. I heard them say a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>crazy things and they were mostly lies. China is not neutral.

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<v Speaker 1>China has providing Russia support this entire time. They're going

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<v Speaker 1>to continue to do so. And the thing that we

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<v Speaker 1>have to do is call them out for it, and

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<v Speaker 1>then if they do it, punish them for it. Because

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<v Speaker 1>you know what the problem with Washington is, we don't

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<v Speaker 1>understand that different between Chinese propaganda and Chinese policy. Chinese

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<v Speaker 1>propaganda is, oh, wow, this Ukraine thing really hasn't tied

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<v Speaker 1>up in knots, and maybe we'll have a peace deal

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<v Speaker 1>and maybe we'll be the mediators. But it's all nonsense

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<v Speaker 1>because what their actual policy is is to help Russia

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<v Speaker 1>as much as possible without admitting as such. And we

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<v Speaker 1>have to be clear eyed about that. I appreciate you

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<v Speaker 1>coming on on short notice. By the way, you read

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<v Speaker 1>that article and just thought it was really, really interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm wondering, though, you're these are serious topics. You run

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<v Speaker 1>pretty hot. Do you do you relax at the end

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<v Speaker 1>of the day? I mean, you are you always this intense?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, do you have a drink to you? Ballroom dance?

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<v Speaker 1>Do you play video games? Anything that can link lower

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<v Speaker 1>your blood pressure? I have a three month newborn caught

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<v Speaker 1>an it's it's our first congratulations. By the way, that

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<v Speaker 1>is awesome, But that is not the time to get

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<v Speaker 1>to relax. I understand that, not exactly relax, but it

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<v Speaker 1>is a It is a time to appreciate what's really

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<v Speaker 1>important in life, and that's family. And we're very lucky

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<v Speaker 1>and our newborn's order is doing well, and I'm trying

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<v Speaker 1>to be passionated my work so that we can create

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<v Speaker 1>a better world for her to grow up in, because

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<v Speaker 1>right now the thugs and crooks and dictators are on

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<v Speaker 1>the march, and Ukraine is the place where we have

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<v Speaker 1>to fight them. And I know it's tough for the

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<v Speaker 1>American people and it cost a lot. N't ask you

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<v Speaker 1>for sacrifice, but if you want a world for your

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<v Speaker 1>children that resembles the world that we envisioned in our minds.

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<v Speaker 1>A world where you can say what you want and

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<v Speaker 1>live where you want. That's all the Ukrainians want. It's

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<v Speaker 1>not too much to ask, and they're willing to die

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<v Speaker 1>for it, and all we have to do is help them,

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<v Speaker 1>and we ought to. Yeah, It's one thing about having

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<v Speaker 1>kids is you have some stake in the game for

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<v Speaker 1>the future, no doubt about that. And I'm saying just

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<v Speaker 1>earlier today, or yesterday or whenever, talking about the problems

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<v Speaker 1>of the world and how my eleven year old is

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<v Speaker 1>going through, you know, one of your major life stages

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<v Speaker 1>or something like that, and it was just it was

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<v Speaker 1>fantastic to focus on that and you know, for a

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<v Speaker 1>while and shut out the rest of the world. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, what's fascinating to me is that, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I think the kids are all right. I travel a

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<v Speaker 1>lot to colleges and universities and hear a lot about welkness.

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<v Speaker 1>But when it comes to China and Russia and the

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<v Speaker 1>need to fight dictators, I think the next generation is

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<v Speaker 1>going to pick up that torch and run with it. Cool,

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<v Speaker 1>if we can just keep keep the fight going until

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<v Speaker 1>we have we hand it off to them. Well, it

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<v Speaker 1>certainly motivates us every day. The paycheck doesn't hurt, but

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<v Speaker 1>that's a that's a big part of it. Josh Rogan

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<v Speaker 1>of The Washington Post, Josh, congratulations again. Take care of

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<v Speaker 1>your family and keep keep up with the fabulous work.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much. You guys, just it's just a word.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, he runs pretty take things, very serious, layman.

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<v Speaker 1>To make sure you know, it's a real least point

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<v Speaker 1>at the end of the day. Of course, when you

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<v Speaker 1>have a three month old, that is not the time

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<v Speaker 1>that you really get to get your ballroom dancing done

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<v Speaker 1>or your drink on or anything like that. No, you

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<v Speaker 1>go and bust your ass at work to relax, absolutely

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<v Speaker 1>freaking lootly. You know what I was going to ask

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<v Speaker 1>him about, But you're charming, personal oriented ending. There was

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<v Speaker 1>too good to pass up, was it. McCaslin. We were

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<v Speaker 1>talking to or Mic Lines about the fact that China,

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<v Speaker 1>who shares a rather long border with Russia, and they

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<v Speaker 1>have been phreenemies and enemies over the past, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>hundred years. Really they're never really friends. Whether China isn't

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<v Speaker 1>enjoying the hell out of watching the Russian military just

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<v Speaker 1>get bled dry. Sure, I mean they're supporting them quote

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<v Speaker 1>unquote supporting them, but maybe they're supporting them, so the

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<v Speaker 1>bleeding continues on both sides. They like bleeding Russia and US.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh yeah, yeah, well yes, thank you, Joe Hodel stupid,

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<v Speaker 1>are you? Joe? Yeah. It's a good point because our

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<v Speaker 1>Pentagon is saying, hey, yeah, hey, yeah, we're just down

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<v Speaker 1>there at the old ammunition depot and it's looking a

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<v Speaker 1>little thin. What are we gonna do about this? They're

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<v Speaker 1>firing a lot arounds and get