1 00:00:01,639 --> 00:00:06,160 Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Floomberg's sound On. 2 00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:10,680 Speaker 1: It will be to the benefit of everybody to achieve 3 00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: a ceasefires. I was expressing my outrage and the behavior 4 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:18,200 Speaker 1: this man. Executive privilege doesn't belong to just in a 5 00:00:18,280 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 1: White House officially, it belongs to the president. Floomberg sound 6 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:26,560 Speaker 1: On Politics, Policy and Perspective from DC's top name. This 7 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 1: is the reality of fast moving events that the White 8 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 1: House has no control over. Most president's budgets are dead 9 00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:37,080 Speaker 1: on arrival. This one's dead before arrival. Bloomberg Sound On 10 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 1: with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. Russia says it's cutting 11 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:48,239 Speaker 1: military activity in Ukraine. The US skeptical, as we may 12 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 1: have seen this movie before. Welcome to the fastest hour 13 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 1: in politics. As President Biden meets with our European allies 14 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 1: on Ukraine and his budget director testifies on Capitol Hill 15 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 1: the day after the President dropped and almost six trillion 16 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:06,839 Speaker 1: dollar budget. We'll talk about it ahead with Congressman Bryant, 17 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:11,320 Speaker 1: style Republican from Wisconsin, serves on the House Financial Services Committee. 18 00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:15,839 Speaker 1: Talks between Russia and Ukraine generates some optimism. Is it misguided? Though? 19 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:18,479 Speaker 1: As I mentioned a lot of skeptics in Washington today 20 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 1: will ask James Jeffrey, former US Ambassador to Iraq, and 21 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:25,480 Speaker 1: as the House prepares to vote on legalizing marijuana this week. 22 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:28,480 Speaker 1: We're joined by the man known inside the Beltway as 23 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 1: the pot lobbyists, Michael Corea. Will be here a bit later. 24 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:34,759 Speaker 1: Busy guy lately. From what we understand our panel today, 25 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:38,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Politics contributor Jeanie Sheanzano along with George C of 26 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 1: Annadale Capital, the Biden administration is once again waiting for 27 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:47,160 Speaker 1: evidence of de escalation. This is a familiar feeling after 28 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:51,360 Speaker 1: Russia announced plans this morning to cut military activity around 29 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:55,559 Speaker 1: the capital of Kiev and in northern Ukraine. President Biden 30 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 1: was asked about it following a meeting he held to 31 00:01:57,440 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 1: day at the White House with the Prime Minister of 32 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 1: Singing for Here's what he said, We'll see. I don't 33 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 1: read anything into until I see what their actions are. 34 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 1: We'll see if they follow through and what their suggesting. 35 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 1: We'll find out what would they do. But in the meantime, 36 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:15,040 Speaker 1: we're going to continue to keep strong the sanctions. We're 37 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 1: going to continue to provide the Ukrainian military with their 38 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 1: capacity to defend themselves, and we're going to continue to 39 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 1: keep a close eye on what's going on now. This 40 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 1: follows talks between Ukraine and Russia that you probably heard 41 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 1: about read about on Bloomberg, talks that ended apparently with 42 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:34,320 Speaker 1: a bit of hope in the air. There was no ceasefire, 43 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:37,079 Speaker 1: no breakthrough, but enough progress was made to meet again. 44 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 1: No date, no time announced. Also comes the day after 45 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:44,800 Speaker 1: the President rolled out the budget with the biggest defense 46 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:49,639 Speaker 1: spending request ever made, more than eight hundred thirteen billion dollars. 47 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:52,920 Speaker 1: As we've reported, more than six hundred eighty million of 48 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 1: that is going to Ukraine, on top of what's already 49 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 1: been approved. And this is where we want to begin with. 50 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:01,959 Speaker 1: Congressman Brian's style, Republican from Wisconsin, serves on the House 51 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:05,280 Speaker 1: Financial Services Committee, and it's with us now on Bloomberg 52 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:07,640 Speaker 1: sound on. Congressman welcome, it's great to have you. Is 53 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:11,520 Speaker 1: that money enough for Ukraine right now? Joe, thanks for 54 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 1: having me on. I think what we are seeing as 55 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:15,720 Speaker 1: a realization that we need to be investing in the 56 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 1: United States military at a period of time of really 57 00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:23,120 Speaker 1: significant global threats, not only in real time from Russia, 58 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:26,480 Speaker 1: but in the long term against our geopolitical struggles with China, 59 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:28,400 Speaker 1: and so it's a move in the right direction. But 60 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 1: my biggest concern in this budget large is I don't 61 00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 1: think we're appropriately taking into account the inflationary pressure that 62 00:03:35,040 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 1: we're gonna see. So when we really understand this, the 63 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 1: budget the President put forward is projecting of average of 64 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 1: inflation of four point seven this year and down to 65 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 1: two point three. I think those are rosy pictures. So 66 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 1: the total dollar amount going into the defense going up, 67 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:54,320 Speaker 1: that's positive, but I think it's going to possibly be 68 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 1: drowned out by the total inflationary environment we're in. More broadly, 69 00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:00,640 Speaker 1: the defense spending package is the big guest ever, at 70 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 1: least if it's approved as it is now. Some think 71 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 1: it should be larger, some I think it should be smaller. 72 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 1: But as we consider the new security challenges you just 73 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 1: referred to in Europe and in Asia, is it enough? 74 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:16,159 Speaker 1: I think the question is not only is what is 75 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 1: the input, but what's the output? So dollars in is 76 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 1: one piece of this. I think we have an opportunity 77 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:23,279 Speaker 1: to very much, to very significantly focus in and be 78 00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:27,719 Speaker 1: very thoughtful and wise in our investments in key defense programs. 79 00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:30,839 Speaker 1: That allow us to project strength in a global perspective 80 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 1: against Russia and China. So I think it's that more conventional, 81 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:37,160 Speaker 1: more conventional hardware. I mean, we haven't been talking about 82 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:40,800 Speaker 1: tanks and missiles for a while. As we consider the 83 00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:43,839 Speaker 1: prospect of what's going on right now in Europe, it's 84 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:47,360 Speaker 1: been much more uh drone based. It's been much more 85 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 1: high tech cyber for instance. Or is the answer all 86 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 1: of the above. The answer is a bit of all 87 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:54,960 Speaker 1: of the above. But I think you're correct and that 88 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:59,479 Speaker 1: it is a high tech, next generation level of weaponry. 89 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:01,599 Speaker 1: If you us look at what China has done on 90 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:05,200 Speaker 1: hypersonic missiles, in many ways, many defense experts will say 91 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 1: they leap fraud US technology. It's an important area for 92 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 1: the United States to be investing in this technology. I 93 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:12,599 Speaker 1: don't want to try to turn you into a military 94 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:15,520 Speaker 1: analyst tonight. You're a member of the Financial Services Committee. 95 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,920 Speaker 1: You mentioned the concern about inflation. This was written around projections. 96 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:20,600 Speaker 1: This came up in the in the hearing today in 97 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:23,719 Speaker 1: the Budget Committee with the Director of o MB projections 98 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 1: based on where we were in November. It's a different 99 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:28,560 Speaker 1: world now, obviously, but a lot of questions as well 100 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 1: about taxes in this plan as we consider raising more money, Congressman, 101 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:36,520 Speaker 1: including including a proposed tax on unrealized gains. It's something 102 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:39,120 Speaker 1: that was floated last year and didn't happen, as the 103 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:42,599 Speaker 1: build back Better plan in general didn't happen. But how 104 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 1: would this work? Would this involve hiring a new fleet 105 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 1: of vir S agents? How could we keep track of 106 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:54,120 Speaker 1: everyone's net worth on an annual basis? I think one 107 00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:56,640 Speaker 1: of thost dangerous proposals in the entire budget is this 108 00:05:56,760 --> 00:06:00,040 Speaker 1: taxation on unrealized gains. It's a true proposal of a 109 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:04,240 Speaker 1: wealth tax which has been floated. It's incredibly unpractical to 110 00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:07,120 Speaker 1: believe that this could occur. You can envision the debates 111 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 1: one has a traditional M and a deal or the 112 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:13,080 Speaker 1: valuation of a company at any given time. Imagine what 113 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 1: that debate would look like if that was annual for 114 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:18,560 Speaker 1: every private company in the United States of America every year. 115 00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 1: It's an incredibly unrealistic program and proposal, and I think 116 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:25,200 Speaker 1: it's incredibly dangerous to be floated that we're going to 117 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:28,599 Speaker 1: become begin taxing unrealized gains. We're just trying to figure 118 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 1: this out today. We've been asking questions at Bloomberg about it, 119 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 1: because we did go down this road over the summer. 120 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 1: Is this a projection of values as as the the 121 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 1: White House budget is known to be. Is this a 122 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:44,320 Speaker 1: political statement or is something that actually could pass now 123 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 1: that we know Joe Mansion is not on board, Hereson 124 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:50,040 Speaker 1: Cinema is not on board. Richard Neil has other ideas. 125 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 1: He thinks it should be a surcharge. Is this isn't 126 00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:58,640 Speaker 1: a real proposal, is it? I believe it's an idealistic 127 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:01,480 Speaker 1: proposal by some those on the left. I also think 128 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 1: it's a beginning of a negotiating position from the progressive left, 129 00:07:06,200 --> 00:07:08,719 Speaker 1: and a wealth tax would be their ultimate goal. I 130 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:11,400 Speaker 1: think it's wildly un really to do. I think they'll 131 00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 1: then shift from there to raising taxes on realized gains 132 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 1: and on earned income for high net worth individuals. I think, 133 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:18,800 Speaker 1: at a period of time when we need to get 134 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 1: workers back to work, we need to drive our economy forward, 135 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 1: raising taxes as the wrong approach as we consider the 136 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:29,240 Speaker 1: challenges we're facing specifically in Asia. You mentioned China not 137 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 1: in a military perspective, Congressman, but as we've heard an 138 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 1: effort to compete better, and that brings us to legislation. 139 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 1: This China Competes Act that's had ten different names already, 140 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:42,320 Speaker 1: but it includes the Chips Act. This is the fifty 141 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:46,040 Speaker 1: two billion dollars that would start to spawn apparently, uh, 142 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 1: some domestic chip manufacturing. We've already seen some motion in 143 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 1: that area, with Intel announcing the plant in Ohio, among others. 144 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 1: But this would actually make it happen legislatively. I know, Congressman, 145 00:07:56,800 --> 00:07:59,480 Speaker 1: there's been a difference between the House and the Senate 146 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 1: on this. Senate finally got their version done. Is this 147 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:05,520 Speaker 1: going to become reality in the next couple of weeks? 148 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:09,240 Speaker 1: Can Congress get this past? If we can come together 149 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 1: on the on the core provisions, I think there is 150 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:13,080 Speaker 1: a chance that it will pass the House. I think 151 00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 1: we agree on the goal. We want to have semiconductor 152 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:19,560 Speaker 1: manufacturing on shore in the United States of America. The 153 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:22,080 Speaker 1: devils in the details. The House version of the bill 154 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: had a whole host of liberal policies, in particulars are 155 00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:28,119 Speaker 1: related to the environment. We're now having a debate between 156 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:30,760 Speaker 1: the Senate bill and the House bill. The question is 157 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 1: can an agreement be reached on how to support semiconductor 158 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:36,839 Speaker 1: production here in the United States, but also getting rid 159 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:39,720 Speaker 1: of all of the bills I want to attach themselves 160 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:41,760 Speaker 1: to this vehicle. So what are you hearing though, I mean, 161 00:08:41,760 --> 00:08:45,120 Speaker 1: when when guys like me are not around, Congressman, do 162 00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:47,640 Speaker 1: you have a gut check on this is their reason 163 00:08:47,679 --> 00:08:51,200 Speaker 1: to believe this would pass. I do believe that there's 164 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:53,840 Speaker 1: a real likelihood that this is a piece of legislation 165 00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:56,640 Speaker 1: that will ultimately go across the line. I'm concerned that 166 00:08:56,760 --> 00:08:59,800 Speaker 1: is going to be loaded with a number of unpalatable 167 00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:02,959 Speaker 1: posals on top of what is actually a good idea 168 00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:05,959 Speaker 1: of making sure that we're producing semi conductor chips in 169 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 1: the United States. So I would say it's likely or 170 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 1: reasonably likely that ultimately a bill will get through. Yet 171 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 1: this Congress, I'm very concerned that the final product is 172 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:18,200 Speaker 1: less focused than it should be. We're gonna talk in 173 00:09:18,200 --> 00:09:22,680 Speaker 1: in just a bit here with the marijuana lobbyists who 174 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:26,000 Speaker 1: has been working in Washington since long before this came 175 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:28,240 Speaker 1: into vogue. But there's gonna be a bill presented this week, 176 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 1: Congressman to decriminalize marijuana on the federal level. Will you 177 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 1: vote on that bill? I think the number one thing 178 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 1: we should do is put forward research gallars to understand 179 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 1: the real impact that marijuana has in particular on young adults. 180 00:09:42,040 --> 00:09:45,000 Speaker 1: United States has not done federal research into this space. 181 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 1: We've begun this experiment on a national level. I think 182 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:50,079 Speaker 1: the number one thing we should do is do research 183 00:09:50,120 --> 00:09:53,240 Speaker 1: into what the implications are before we move forward with 184 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:55,880 Speaker 1: a full federal legalization. So you'd be a no vote 185 00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 1: for now on that at this point, I think step 186 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:00,960 Speaker 1: one as we should re searcher to make sure we 187 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 1: understand what the significant health concerns are that many doctors 188 00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 1: have as a relations in particular to young adults. I 189 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 1: hate to ask the dumb question here, Congressman, but that's 190 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:13,680 Speaker 1: my job, and it has to do with with deficits 191 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 1: and debt. As you well know, political parties find religion 192 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 1: on the on the deficit spending and the federal debt, 193 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:23,600 Speaker 1: typically when they're in the minority. And I know that 194 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 1: the Republican Party has been giving this president a lot 195 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 1: of uh criticism about spending. This budget that you and 196 00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 1: I started talking about here would lower deficit spending by 197 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 1: a trillion dollars according to the paperwork. Sounds great and 198 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 1: it's I'm sure something we can all agree is good 199 00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:45,760 Speaker 1: for our economy and our treasury. It would still, however, 200 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:50,640 Speaker 1: leave fourteen trillion dollars in defense in the deficit spending. 201 00:10:50,679 --> 00:10:53,559 Speaker 1: Just to put that in perspective for people, at what 202 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 1: point do we get serious about this or are we 203 00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 1: just going to go off the fiscal cliff here at 204 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 1: some point. I'm very concerned about where we're at as 205 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:06,200 Speaker 1: our national debt has increased beyond thirty trillion dollars. I 206 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 1: think one unrealistic piece of this budget is the amount 207 00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:11,679 Speaker 1: of debt service and debt interests that's ultimately going to 208 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:14,320 Speaker 1: have to be paid. If the Federal Reserve truly moves 209 00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:17,360 Speaker 1: up interest rates to the level many people expect, one 210 00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:20,600 Speaker 1: percent interest rate movement on the national debt right now 211 00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 1: could easily play out to rough mass three billion dollars 212 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:27,719 Speaker 1: of additional fiscal pressure on the government. I think what 213 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:31,320 Speaker 1: we've seen is wild spending over the past few years, 214 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:34,400 Speaker 1: So the reduction and deficit is only because the baseline 215 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:38,080 Speaker 1: the previous year was so wildly out of control. What 216 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 1: we need to do is truly make a significant change, 217 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:44,480 Speaker 1: And my biggest concern is the combination of the monetary policy. 218 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 1: If the interest rates go up with a thirty trillion 219 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:50,640 Speaker 1: dollar debt. The interest payments on the defice set on 220 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:53,600 Speaker 1: the debt could become very significant. A lot of talk 221 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:56,320 Speaker 1: about a recession. Lastly, Congressman, today was the day we 222 00:11:56,400 --> 00:11:59,600 Speaker 1: saw the yield curve go inverted. You should have heard 223 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:01,679 Speaker 1: my god to be in the Bloomberg newsroom. The day 224 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 1: that happens is something else. How concerned are you about 225 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 1: the R word? I think many people are concerned. I 226 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:11,080 Speaker 1: think that one of the big concerns is that people 227 00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:13,680 Speaker 1: are looking out and realizing that the Federal Reserve is 228 00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:17,320 Speaker 1: serious about moving interest rates up, in my opinion, possibly 229 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:20,680 Speaker 1: slower than they should in the implications that that has 230 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:24,959 Speaker 1: on borrowing for businesses, but also again the fiscal implications 231 00:12:25,040 --> 00:12:27,240 Speaker 1: that a one percent move and interest rates will have 232 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 1: on interest payments on the national debt. When people combine 233 00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 1: the fiscal policy in Washington combined with the monetary policy 234 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:37,200 Speaker 1: that we're likely to see, it does give me pause 235 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:41,800 Speaker 1: that we have some difficult times ahead. Appreciate the insights today, 236 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:44,560 Speaker 1: Congress from Bryant style Republican from Wisconsin. He is working 237 00:12:44,559 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 1: on the Financial Services Committee. If you couldn't tell and 238 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:50,720 Speaker 1: appreciate your time with US representative this is just the 239 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 1: beginning of this budget debate. This this is going to 240 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:56,040 Speaker 1: go on. I mean, if you were with us yesterday, 241 00:12:56,120 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 1: we reminded you that we just passed the current omnibus 242 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:02,040 Speaker 1: budget that we're operating eating under like a week or 243 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:05,400 Speaker 1: two ago. We're already halfway through the fiscal year. So 244 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:07,440 Speaker 1: a lot of questions about whether this can be done 245 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:11,440 Speaker 1: before the next fiscal year that's about six months away. 246 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:14,679 Speaker 1: That would be October. Look, I'm whispering like Joe Biden. 247 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:22,040 Speaker 1: Now that would be October. Guess what's in November? Little 248 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:26,079 Speaker 1: election coming now? Uh? The vote that I mentioned briefly 249 00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:28,880 Speaker 1: with the congressman about marijuana, this is something that's you 250 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:30,800 Speaker 1: can read about it on the terminal. This is real stuff. 251 00:13:30,800 --> 00:13:33,560 Speaker 1: It was moving stocks today, as I read in the 252 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:38,600 Speaker 1: headline from Bloomberg Intelligence, Legal popular sends stocks higher, but 253 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:43,720 Speaker 1: only banks may see relief. This will sound familiar. Short 254 00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 1: term gains potstocks may continue as a build of federally 255 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:50,640 Speaker 1: decriminalized marijuana will likely pass the House. You think that 256 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:57,560 Speaker 1: that is something the legislation has little chance in the Senate. 257 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:02,200 Speaker 1: Just like the last ten times we talked about this, 258 00:14:02,280 --> 00:14:04,800 Speaker 1: it came up today in the leadership briefing. As we 259 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:08,120 Speaker 1: hear from hackem Jeffries, he talked about it in the 260 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:11,280 Speaker 1: briefing before he appeared on Balance of Power here on Bloomberg. 261 00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:15,679 Speaker 1: Listen to what he said. Americans across the political spectrum, 262 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:20,880 Speaker 1: particularly younger Americans, recognized that now is the time for 263 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:27,360 Speaker 1: cannabis reform. Be good for the economy, good for economic activity, 264 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:33,320 Speaker 1: good for public safety, good for social, racial and economic justice. 265 00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 1: That's the leadership talking. The head of the Democratic Caucus. 266 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 1: They say he's in line to be speaker someday, Congressman 267 00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:47,240 Speaker 1: Haakim Jeffries of New York. If you talk to Chuck Schumer, 268 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:51,000 Speaker 1: he sounds the same way. But this still does not 269 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:53,080 Speaker 1: have the votes to get through the Senate. And that's 270 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:57,160 Speaker 1: where we begin our conversation with Michael Korea, director of 271 00:14:57,200 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 1: government relations for the National Cannabis Industry Associate Ation. There's 272 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:03,720 Speaker 1: only one man in Washington known as the pot lobbyist, 273 00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:07,600 Speaker 1: and that's Michael Evidence by his Twitter handle. It's great 274 00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:10,040 Speaker 1: to have you, Michael. Thank you. This is getting to 275 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:14,800 Speaker 1: be a recurring uh film here where the House gets legislation, 276 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:17,760 Speaker 1: whether it's the Safe Banking Act or this one. Now 277 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:21,400 Speaker 1: from Jerry Nadler. It passes and then it dies a 278 00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:27,040 Speaker 1: quick death in the Senate. Will this time be different? Uh? No, 279 00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:32,040 Speaker 1: And thanks Joe for having me. As a former House 280 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:36,000 Speaker 1: of Representative staffer who worked there fifteen years. We always 281 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 1: used to joke the Senate is where we sent our 282 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:40,320 Speaker 1: bills to die, and so I don't think. I don't 283 00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:43,320 Speaker 1: think anything changes. It's more of the same as definitely 284 00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:47,480 Speaker 1: more hyperpartisan than when I was there, and cannabis is 285 00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:51,240 Speaker 1: no different. Um. But you've talked about the bills that 286 00:15:51,280 --> 00:15:53,840 Speaker 1: have passed the House. You know, something like the Safe 287 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 1: Banking Act has passed six different times with super majorities, 288 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 1: hundred hundred Republican co sponsors, three plus votes. It's been amazing. 289 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 1: And you had a bill that may come up this week, 290 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:10,840 Speaker 1: the More Act, which you mentioned, passed in December. That 291 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:14,200 Speaker 1: was more a party line vote. Uh. There were about 292 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 1: five or six Republicans that supported it and about five 293 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 1: or six Democrats who didn't support it, So it was 294 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:22,720 Speaker 1: a very It just got by with a small majority. 295 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:28,160 Speaker 1: It was a UM more of a partisan bill. But Uh, 296 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 1: neither bill has ever seen you know, Will I expect 297 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:34,720 Speaker 1: to see the light of day in the Senate, but 298 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 1: looking forward to having a good discussion on stuff around cannabis. Well, jeesus, 299 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:41,360 Speaker 1: you know what keeps getting you out of bed in 300 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 1: the morning, Uh, Michael, And when you consider this, you know, look, 301 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:47,320 Speaker 1: this is one by the way, we remove cannabis from 302 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:51,400 Speaker 1: the list of federally controlled substances, eliminate criminal penalties. This 303 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 1: is on a federal level associated with the drug. You 304 00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:57,360 Speaker 1: heard the congressman speaking just a couple of moments ago, 305 00:16:57,400 --> 00:17:00,280 Speaker 1: he says, put more money into researching this. What's actually 306 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 1: holding it up? Why can't it pass the Senate? So 307 00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:06,360 Speaker 1: and and I respect that congressman's view. Um, and this 308 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:07,920 Speaker 1: is one of the things. You know, I've been doing 309 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:11,240 Speaker 1: this for nine years, and as you mentioned, I began 310 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:14,840 Speaker 1: before there were legal sales in Colorado and Washington State, 311 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 1: and so the world was different in two thousand twelve, 312 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:20,720 Speaker 1: going around Capitol Hill and being like you represent what, 313 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 1: you represent who, and then just trying to being taken 314 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:27,560 Speaker 1: seriously to where now you were having bills past the 315 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:31,600 Speaker 1: House multiple times and we're having hopefully the majority leader 316 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,480 Speaker 1: of the Senate, Chuck Schumer, introduced his own legalization bill, 317 00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:37,359 Speaker 1: like you've seen the maturity of the industry and the 318 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:42,400 Speaker 1: changing but it's still the fact that uh, Congress as 319 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:46,119 Speaker 1: a whole, um especially the Senate. The Senate tends to 320 00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:49,919 Speaker 1: be older, a little more conservative as a whole, is 321 00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 1: not caught up with where where America is. And how 322 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:55,520 Speaker 1: about this White House after promises on the campaign trail 323 00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:58,119 Speaker 1: by Joe Biden. H what's going on the other end 324 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:01,720 Speaker 1: of Pennsylvania Avenue so one? I think it it gets 325 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:04,760 Speaker 1: back to a lot of the demographic trends in cannabis. 326 00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:10,320 Speaker 1: Although America overwhelmingly is supporting this issue and overwhelmingly thinks 327 00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 1: that this should be left up to the states, and 328 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:15,159 Speaker 1: you see state after state after state doing it. You 329 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:18,479 Speaker 1: see a lot of older people who tend to have 330 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:20,480 Speaker 1: these views. And I'm old enough to remember I grew 331 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:22,720 Speaker 1: up in the just say No eighties. I remember that 332 00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 1: Joe Biden's a lot older than me, and he was 333 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:29,480 Speaker 1: probably responsible for writing many of the tough on crime 334 00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:31,840 Speaker 1: laws and anti drug laws in this country. And I 335 00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 1: think on this, though he ran on it, a lot 336 00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:36,679 Speaker 1: of progressives are very upset with him about it. And 337 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:39,080 Speaker 1: this is a business story, as we're going to discuss 338 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:41,199 Speaker 1: with the panel in just a moment are you know? 339 00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:45,320 Speaker 1: Lastly here with the pot lobbyist, I don't know how 340 00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 1: you managed to get to secure that. That's although I 341 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:50,879 Speaker 1: guess how many could there be. It was different, It 342 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:55,000 Speaker 1: was different thirteen year it was genius, and one of 343 00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 1: these days it will actually be worth something. But it is, 344 00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 1: like you mentioned Joe Biden, it is of voters, His voters, 345 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:05,360 Speaker 1: Democratic voters, and a population are there. It's just individually, 346 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,239 Speaker 1: I think he has these views that are hard to 347 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:11,280 Speaker 1: reconcile in his head. That is a lot of the 348 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:14,479 Speaker 1: educating we need to be doing, and especially with the Senate. 349 00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:18,119 Speaker 1: And you asked, you know, why isn't anything going on 350 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:20,720 Speaker 1: in the Senate. I hate to say this. It's not 351 00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:25,359 Speaker 1: cannabis prohibitionists who are opposing to build like the Safe 352 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:28,959 Speaker 1: Banking Act. It is it is our friends in advocacy. 353 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:32,200 Speaker 1: You have someone like Corey Booker of New Jersey who 354 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:34,600 Speaker 1: is a fan of the issue. You have Chuck Schumer 355 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:37,439 Speaker 1: of New York, majority leader who wants to solve this 356 00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:40,200 Speaker 1: holy equality issue is slowing down the banking issue. I 357 00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:43,080 Speaker 1: understand this is something that we're actually fairly savvy about 358 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:46,120 Speaker 1: on this broadcast, But Michael I appreciate it. I wish 359 00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:47,800 Speaker 1: I had more time with you. Let's stay in touch though, 360 00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 1: because these keep coming up. Michael Korea, Let's assemble the panel. 361 00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:57,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie Schanzano with us now along with 362 00:19:57,119 --> 00:20:00,480 Speaker 1: George c chair of both Annadel Capital and the Clement 363 00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:02,879 Speaker 1: Center for National Security. Is great to have both of 364 00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:06,080 Speaker 1: you with this. Jennie, we're talking about democrats. Last five 365 00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:09,119 Speaker 1: ten minutes here with the pot lobbyists. How about that 366 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:11,879 Speaker 1: for a title. Imagine handing out that credit card at 367 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:16,280 Speaker 1: cocktail parties in Washington. He says, nothing's changed in fifteen years. 368 00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 1: These bills passed the House, they die on the Senate. 369 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 1: How come Yeah, I want a title like that. I 370 00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 1: don't have anything good like that. Joe Um, Yeah, yeah, 371 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:26,919 Speaker 1: it is fascinating, and he's absolutely right. This is not 372 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:29,200 Speaker 1: going to pass the Senate. And you know, of course 373 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:32,480 Speaker 1: we have what about thirty seven states with medical use 374 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:36,280 Speaker 1: is legalized and eighteen recreational use, so they the states 375 00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:40,199 Speaker 1: are truly really the laboratories of democracy, and the federal 376 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:43,440 Speaker 1: government catches up very very slowly. I do think there 377 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:47,399 Speaker 1: is a generational aspect, as as Michael was saying, I 378 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:49,639 Speaker 1: also think it's important you just talked about. I mean, 379 00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:53,359 Speaker 1: Joe Biden's UH budget that he just put forward. What's 380 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:57,480 Speaker 1: not included in their marijuana protections shocking to me because 381 00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:00,960 Speaker 1: Democrats support is going down with young people. It needs 382 00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:03,119 Speaker 1: to go the other way. And for a budget that 383 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:05,400 Speaker 1: was designed to turn things around for the mid term, 384 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 1: this is not one area where he's helping himself, George. 385 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:10,800 Speaker 1: This is supposed to be a money maker we're talking 386 00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 1: about We've seen it already happened, as genius referencing on 387 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,639 Speaker 1: the state level, with tens of millions of dollars in 388 00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:20,360 Speaker 1: taxes being generated. Imagine the money that could be generated 389 00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:22,199 Speaker 1: on the federal level. You would think that, you know, 390 00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:25,600 Speaker 1: if money talks in Washington, that would get lawmakers on board. 391 00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:28,920 Speaker 1: How come it's not happened. Well, I'll be honest, I've 392 00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:31,600 Speaker 1: heard zero about this issue in Texas. We're not really 393 00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:33,920 Speaker 1: talking about it or focused on it. We've been riveted 394 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 1: by watching Ukraine and watching the cry for freedom over there, 395 00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 1: So I'm not surprised that that money is behind a 396 00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 1: lot of this pot legalization effort. But I really don't 397 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:48,240 Speaker 1: I don't feel enthralled to make a federal issue. I'm 398 00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:51,600 Speaker 1: comfortable leaving at the states and letting the states decide it. Well, 399 00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:54,399 Speaker 1: the money that was passed for Ukraine is certainly a 400 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:57,879 Speaker 1: federal issue, George, and we're looking at another good chunk. 401 00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:00,800 Speaker 1: It's not nearly the billions that we saw a couple 402 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 1: of weeks ago, and the President was preparing for his 403 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:05,119 Speaker 1: trip to Europe, but another six hundred eighty million dollars 404 00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:08,480 Speaker 1: goes to Ukraine as part of this defense spending budget. 405 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:10,800 Speaker 1: And they both kind of speak to each other in 406 00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:13,960 Speaker 1: the spending plan that the President rolled out here, are 407 00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:16,080 Speaker 1: we going in the right direction or are we gonna 408 00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:20,000 Speaker 1: find ourselves with Ukraine hanging in the balance potentially no 409 00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:23,359 Speaker 1: more Ukraine when we could have been spending more and 410 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:26,280 Speaker 1: sending more. Well, you know, it's funny. I think the 411 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,440 Speaker 1: conventional wisdom was that Russia was just going to mop 412 00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:30,399 Speaker 1: up with him very very quickly. Either they were going 413 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:32,600 Speaker 1: to lay down, or that that Russia was just going 414 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:37,440 Speaker 1: to devastate them, and that the the the fierce opposition 415 00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:39,560 Speaker 1: that the Ukraine's had brought forth I think has inspired 416 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:41,719 Speaker 1: the world. Frankly, no matter what you think of Russia 417 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:45,280 Speaker 1: or Ukraine in in total. And I do think the 418 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:48,000 Speaker 1: Biden administration has been pretty cautious about the way they've 419 00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:51,000 Speaker 1: approached this. But I mostly would give the President, quite frankly, 420 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,960 Speaker 1: as a Republican conservative, high marks for the way he's 421 00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:55,680 Speaker 1: handled this. I think there's been a lot of restraint. 422 00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,480 Speaker 1: I think they've been very cautious about poking Rushi in 423 00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:01,000 Speaker 1: the eye, which would be incredibly food wish and Andy's 424 00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 1: calling for that I think are not very frankly. And 425 00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:05,920 Speaker 1: at this point, I think I think that we can 426 00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,680 Speaker 1: get we can try to get more aggressive about the aid. 427 00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:10,400 Speaker 1: I don't think we can give them too much aid 428 00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:13,760 Speaker 1: in defending themselves. I think this is a five worth 429 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,400 Speaker 1: giving in terms of the amount of military and humanitarian 430 00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:17,879 Speaker 1: aid we can put in there, and we should be, 431 00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,000 Speaker 1: we should be on the front lines of that without 432 00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 1: crossing the red line of NATO involvement, because that's just 433 00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:25,919 Speaker 1: incredibly foolish to do something like that. This is exactly 434 00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:29,440 Speaker 1: where we're going to pick up next with Ambassador James Jeffrey, 435 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:31,920 Speaker 1: and we'll reassemble the panel a bit later this hour 436 00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:35,720 Speaker 1: to continue the conversation with Jennie Chanzano and George C. 437 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:41,360 Speaker 1: James Jeffrey, former ambassador to Iraq, Turkey, Albania as well 438 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:45,800 Speaker 1: in former National security advisor and the w. Bush administration. 439 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:48,359 Speaker 1: We'll talk about this next. Is this another head faith 440 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:52,080 Speaker 1: now from Russia talking about the escalation He's next. This 441 00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:57,960 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. Watch what they do, not what they say, 442 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:02,640 Speaker 1: is the general feel inside the Biden administration today after 443 00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:05,960 Speaker 1: Russia announced plans to cut military activity in Kiev and 444 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:08,000 Speaker 1: in northern Ukraine. As you just heard from Charlie, he 445 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:10,520 Speaker 1: gave the markets a lift. You should have seen, uh, 446 00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:13,040 Speaker 1: the oil prices just turn on a dime. Maybe you 447 00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:15,920 Speaker 1: were watching it as that happened this morning during Bloomberg surveillance. 448 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:18,480 Speaker 1: I mean, it's such just a matter of seconds for 449 00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,919 Speaker 1: everything to turn around. But the Pentagon is sounding a 450 00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:23,920 Speaker 1: lot like the president here, and of course, well it's 451 00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:27,119 Speaker 1: the same administration. You heard President Biden a bit earlier 452 00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:30,720 Speaker 1: this hour say as much. You know, he's he wants 453 00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:33,800 Speaker 1: to see action. It's it's not words, because we've been 454 00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:37,280 Speaker 1: through this before. John Kirby, the spokesman for the Pentagon, 455 00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:39,840 Speaker 1: speaking to this as well here he is, we largely 456 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,600 Speaker 1: assess that they are in a defensive posture. They have 457 00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:46,040 Speaker 1: they have several days ago stopped trying to advance on 458 00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:49,000 Speaker 1: Kiev and sort of took up defensive positions. I look 459 00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:51,520 Speaker 1: back through my notes. It was a Tuesday just like 460 00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:57,000 Speaker 1: this one, about five weeks ago, when right around the 461 00:24:57,080 --> 00:25:01,040 Speaker 1: same time of day, there was a headline right de escalation. 462 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,439 Speaker 1: We're bringing the military drills to an end. Remember they 463 00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:06,320 Speaker 1: were bringing they were going back to base. We even 464 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:09,520 Speaker 1: saw a video of this massive train loaded with tanks 465 00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:13,200 Speaker 1: heading away from Ukraine. The war was over, even though 466 00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:17,480 Speaker 1: it hadn't begun. Oil prices went down, stocks went up. 467 00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:21,800 Speaker 1: I did go back and check my notes. The invasion 468 00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:26,240 Speaker 1: took place five days later. It's a pleasure to introduce 469 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:28,760 Speaker 1: James Jeffrey Now, as I mentioned to you, he was 470 00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:32,720 Speaker 1: coming in. Former Ambassador to Iraq, Turkey, Albania, former Deputy 471 00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:37,199 Speaker 1: National Security Advisor, special Envoy to the Global Coalition to 472 00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:41,080 Speaker 1: defeat isis now chair of the Wilson Center Middle East Program. 473 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:46,919 Speaker 1: Ambassador welcome. Do you believe that the skepticism is is 474 00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:55,119 Speaker 1: well deserved? Thank you? Is the skepticism well deserved today? Um? 475 00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:58,880 Speaker 1: But the skepticism is sensible, but shouldn't be carried too far. 476 00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:01,920 Speaker 1: We have seen the Russians. You gave a good example 477 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:05,679 Speaker 1: to negotiate and fight at the same time. And lie, 478 00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:09,800 Speaker 1: I've been involved into negotiations at the top levels on 479 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:13,240 Speaker 1: Georgia in two thousand and eight and recently on Syria. 480 00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,760 Speaker 1: In both cases we managed to get the Russians to 481 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:22,200 Speaker 1: finally agree to a compromise ceased by a proposal with 482 00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,920 Speaker 1: the French in two thousand eight in Georgia and uh 483 00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:28,480 Speaker 1: the facto uh since two thousand eighteen in Syria. But 484 00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:32,480 Speaker 1: it's rough going. Zelenski has his work cut out negotiating 485 00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,800 Speaker 1: with them. But I wouldn't rule out the possibility because 486 00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,840 Speaker 1: on the ground the Russian forces are not able to advance. 487 00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,720 Speaker 1: That's the reality that they have to deal with. You've 488 00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:47,639 Speaker 1: dealt personally with Vladimir Putin on a number of occasions. 489 00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:53,200 Speaker 1: Do you trust anything he says? Pardon? Would you trust 490 00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:58,520 Speaker 1: anything that he says? Why negotiate with a war criminal? Um? Well, 491 00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:01,840 Speaker 1: you negotiate all the time lack criminals. Uh, there's very 492 00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:08,520 Speaker 1: few negotiations are designed to avoid worse catastrophes, including major laws, 493 00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:11,680 Speaker 1: and the people you're dealing with are often gotten very nice. Uh. 494 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:13,040 Speaker 1: Do we want to go to law with him. No, 495 00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:14,919 Speaker 1: we didn't in two thousand eight we didn't in two 496 00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,600 Speaker 1: thousand and eighteen, and we don't now. So you negotiate 497 00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:19,920 Speaker 1: one way or the other. That doesn't mean you trust him. 498 00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:23,080 Speaker 1: Of course, is the US taken the right posture on 499 00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,760 Speaker 1: the border. Are you worried that Vladimir Putin, for instance, 500 00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:30,320 Speaker 1: attacks our supply chains going into Ukraine. I don't think 501 00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:32,399 Speaker 1: he will. I think if he does, we will have 502 00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:36,919 Speaker 1: no choice but to retaliate militarily, and I believe that 503 00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:39,760 Speaker 1: President Biden is ready to do that. I have to 504 00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,720 Speaker 1: ask you, ambassador, about the Iran nuclear deal. We've been 505 00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:45,320 Speaker 1: hearing quite a bit about it. We've heard accusations that 506 00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,600 Speaker 1: Iran is trying to run out the clock. I know 507 00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:50,119 Speaker 1: this is something you're intimately familiar with. Here is it 508 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:55,080 Speaker 1: something that is actually going to help America's standing in 509 00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:59,399 Speaker 1: the world If we got this back on track, um, 510 00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:03,320 Speaker 1: it will ease one problem, which is Iran on the 511 00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:05,600 Speaker 1: cusp of a nuclear weapon, because it pushes it back 512 00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:08,960 Speaker 1: a few years. But just like the negotiations with Russia, 513 00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:12,600 Speaker 1: the Iranians are bad actors whose goal, like Prutins, is 514 00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:16,600 Speaker 1: to overturn the international order that we and many other 515 00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,760 Speaker 1: countries benefit from in support, and what we're doing with 516 00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:22,639 Speaker 1: these negotiations is trying to, as the presidents in the 517 00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:25,760 Speaker 1: State of the Union address on Russia, make our side 518 00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:29,639 Speaker 1: stronger in the air side weaker. But the proof is 519 00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:32,640 Speaker 1: in the pudding. In either both negotiations will have to wait. 520 00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:35,800 Speaker 1: On the Rnian one, it may break very soon and 521 00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:38,640 Speaker 1: get an agreement, or we may not. What would it 522 00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:41,720 Speaker 1: mean for energy? This is obviously directly tied to the 523 00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:45,400 Speaker 1: Russia Ukraine's story here as we seek more sources of 524 00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:49,200 Speaker 1: oil and gas to try to starve Russia of its 525 00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:53,480 Speaker 1: main source of income. Okay, Joe, you've got an amateur 526 00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:56,240 Speaker 1: on oil and gas, but I'll do my best. Russia 527 00:28:57,040 --> 00:29:01,080 Speaker 1: uh exports other than to China about three plus million 528 00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:04,400 Speaker 1: barrels of oil a day. Uh I ran if it 529 00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:07,080 Speaker 1: was able to come back online, which would be one 530 00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:09,720 Speaker 1: of the consequences of an agreement to return to the 531 00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:15,040 Speaker 1: Joint Nuclear Agreement, would bring on an additional one million 532 00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:18,160 Speaker 1: plus barrels, possibly more after a few months, So it 533 00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:21,840 Speaker 1: would have a significant effect on oil slash oil markets. 534 00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:24,200 Speaker 1: It wouldn't do much for gas markets, but right now, 535 00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:26,120 Speaker 1: the main concern, as you just pointed out, and as 536 00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:30,800 Speaker 1: we heard on the stock market soundings and prices, oil 537 00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:33,760 Speaker 1: is the key factor right now. It always takes a 538 00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:37,000 Speaker 1: man of great experience to refer to themselves as an amateur. 539 00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:40,560 Speaker 1: From my experience, UH, when we consider the next week 540 00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:43,960 Speaker 1: or so in Ukraine, Ambassador, this is said to be 541 00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:49,040 Speaker 1: a pivotal moment here as Russia potentially regroups and decides 542 00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,200 Speaker 1: what to do after weeks of being bogged down. Is 543 00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:55,000 Speaker 1: there anything else the US can do other than stand by, 544 00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:58,360 Speaker 1: continue to obviously send the money and material into the country. 545 00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:00,920 Speaker 1: Is there anything else that we can do protect civilians 546 00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:05,160 Speaker 1: in Ukraine? UH? Former Congressman Jane Harman and I have 547 00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:08,280 Speaker 1: recommended to start working on a u N endorsed It 548 00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:10,520 Speaker 1: would be the General Assembly because Russia wood brought in 549 00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:15,960 Speaker 1: and Security Council UH cease via slash humanitarian zone in 550 00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:17,959 Speaker 1: the west of the country where we don't have Russian 551 00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:22,080 Speaker 1: ground troops to keep the refugees and displaced persons there 552 00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:24,280 Speaker 1: rather than have them flee all over Europe. But that 553 00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:26,880 Speaker 1: would also give a refuge if the Russians are able 554 00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:30,400 Speaker 1: to mount a new offensive. It would also mean UH 555 00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:33,600 Speaker 1: in a peacekeeper role. American and other troops going in 556 00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:38,440 Speaker 1: not to attack the Russians but simply to defend humanitarian operation. UM. 557 00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:40,560 Speaker 1: I think we need to start thinking about that either 558 00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,960 Speaker 1: before or after a cease via if we get one 559 00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:47,880 Speaker 1: with these negotiations. Ambassador James Jeffrey, we thank you for 560 00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:50,600 Speaker 1: being with us, appreciate the time and insights today on 561 00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:55,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound On. He by the way, little inside information. 562 00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:57,680 Speaker 1: He was joining us from the business class lounge at 563 00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:03,000 Speaker 1: Doha International Airport, so if we were understand everything that 564 00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:04,760 Speaker 1: might have had something to do with it. By the way, 565 00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:07,480 Speaker 1: Jane Harmon will be on Balance of Power tomorrow at 566 00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:11,280 Speaker 1: noon on Bloomberg TV and Radio, and we'll reassemble the 567 00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:14,800 Speaker 1: panel next right here on sound On, I'm Joe Matthew. 568 00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:22,320 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg Sound On with 569 00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:29,120 Speaker 1: Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. Skepticism abounds here inside the 570 00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:32,520 Speaker 1: Beltway today following the news from Russia that was enough 571 00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:34,640 Speaker 1: to lift the markets. I have to admit the markets 572 00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:38,400 Speaker 1: are typically more savvy than Washington when it comes to 573 00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:40,880 Speaker 1: all of this. But yeah, we've heard this before. We've 574 00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:44,000 Speaker 1: just as we discussed with the ambassador heard from Moscow 575 00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:49,400 Speaker 1: about de escalation only to be followed by another mobilization. 576 00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:51,480 Speaker 1: And there are reports that in fact Russia could be 577 00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:55,160 Speaker 1: in the middle of that right now, potentially refreshing, reloading, 578 00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:57,720 Speaker 1: and surrounding Kiev. In the end, we're just going to 579 00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:00,600 Speaker 1: have to wait to see what happens next. As we 580 00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:05,960 Speaker 1: reassemble the panel following our conversation with Ambassador James Jeffrey, 581 00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:09,960 Speaker 1: Genie Chanzano is with US Bloomberg Politics contributors today along 582 00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:13,080 Speaker 1: with George c Chair of both Nnadale Capital and the 583 00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:18,520 Speaker 1: Clements Center for National Security. Genie, the skepticism that we're 584 00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:21,760 Speaker 1: talking about here at the White House is clearly well deserved. 585 00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:25,360 Speaker 1: How long would you give the Russians another opportunity here 586 00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:29,080 Speaker 1: to pull back? Um? You know, I think the White 587 00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:31,680 Speaker 1: House and the Pentagon are are making the right point. 588 00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:34,239 Speaker 1: You have to wait and see what they do and 589 00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:36,800 Speaker 1: not listen to what they say. I think a big 590 00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:40,200 Speaker 1: concern out of all of this for the administration who 591 00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:42,520 Speaker 1: has worked they've worked so hard to keep the allies 592 00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,840 Speaker 1: together is that there are reports that there are some 593 00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:49,680 Speaker 1: significant breaks with the allies, for instance, Germany and France 594 00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:53,640 Speaker 1: on the President's comments over the weekend, those nine words 595 00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:56,280 Speaker 1: that he uttered Germany and France on whether to talk 596 00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:59,200 Speaker 1: to Putin, you know, the president on the phone today 597 00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:02,640 Speaker 1: trying to convince them to keep sending necessary arms. So 598 00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:04,840 Speaker 1: this is the job the administration is going to have 599 00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:06,320 Speaker 1: to do. They're going to have to keep their eye 600 00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:10,840 Speaker 1: on the ball until they see significant behavioral change versus 601 00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:13,479 Speaker 1: statements out of Russia. Where are you on this, George? 602 00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:16,600 Speaker 1: There is a split apparently in NATO. We've talked about 603 00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:19,720 Speaker 1: this and a piece was written on the terminal about 604 00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:22,160 Speaker 1: it yesterday. Where you've got France and Germany in one 605 00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:24,760 Speaker 1: place they want to continue talking about a lot of 606 00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:27,280 Speaker 1: our other NATO allies are not just skeptical, but think 607 00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:29,600 Speaker 1: it's just just a waste of time to be talking 608 00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:31,960 Speaker 1: to someone the president refers to as a war criminal. 609 00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:35,360 Speaker 1: I think you can make a pretty credible argument that 610 00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:39,000 Speaker 1: NATO has been a paper tiger since nine and that this, 611 00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:43,080 Speaker 1: this Ukrainian incourasion by Putin has unified it more than 612 00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:46,160 Speaker 1: it has been in decades. And yes, you're gonna have disagreements, 613 00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:48,040 Speaker 1: and yes, France and Germany are always going to be 614 00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:50,400 Speaker 1: more on the appease Russia side because they're a lot 615 00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:54,120 Speaker 1: closer to Russia than we are because that's their natural posture. 616 00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:55,800 Speaker 1: And there's been quite a bit of commerce going back 617 00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:58,440 Speaker 1: and forth between those two countries in Russia. But I 618 00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:01,000 Speaker 1: think NATO is the healthiest it's been in quite some time. 619 00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:04,880 Speaker 1: I'm actually encouraged by the the amount of unity there's been, 620 00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:08,400 Speaker 1: the way the ambassador described that though George to be 621 00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:14,399 Speaker 1: conducting negotiations even as you're fighting. It's the only way 622 00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:17,799 Speaker 1: to achieve a cease fire, right. I think that that 623 00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:21,760 Speaker 1: McCrone and the Germans are playing real politics, allow Henry 624 00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:24,360 Speaker 1: Kissinger style, and I think I think President Biden is 625 00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:30,800 Speaker 1: dealing in idealistic uh virtue signaling as similar to his predecessor, 626 00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:33,160 Speaker 1: George W. Bush did. And I think this calls for 627 00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:35,719 Speaker 1: real politics. And I do think that the Allies did 628 00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:39,000 Speaker 1: have a riety. Although I complimented the main way the 629 00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:41,799 Speaker 1: President Biden has handled this conflict, he made a very 630 00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:44,640 Speaker 1: bad error over the weekend and saying several rash things 631 00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:47,960 Speaker 1: that were not accurate, like we would we would reciprocate 632 00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:51,680 Speaker 1: with chemical weapons, and and that um we wanted regime change. 633 00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:53,279 Speaker 1: He claims he didn't say that, he kind of did, 634 00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:55,759 Speaker 1: and they had to be walked back, and I'd be 635 00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:57,200 Speaker 1: a little mad if I were then too, So a 636 00:34:57,239 --> 00:34:59,960 Speaker 1: little division is to be expected. These are complicated issues. 637 00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:02,040 Speaker 1: You'd be mad if you were our European allies, or 638 00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:04,759 Speaker 1: if you were Vladimir Putin. You're saying I would be 639 00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:07,520 Speaker 1: I would be mad if I was all three. But 640 00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:09,320 Speaker 1: you think this is getting in the way of diplomacy, 641 00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:12,080 Speaker 1: is your point? No question? You know if if, of 642 00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:14,239 Speaker 1: course we want Putin gone, but you don't call for 643 00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:17,520 Speaker 1: it publicly, well you know, of course, Jennie uh we 644 00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:20,440 Speaker 1: talked about this yesterday. He wasn't walking these back, he 645 00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:22,520 Speaker 1: was cleaning them up to say, yeah, of course. I mean, 646 00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:24,560 Speaker 1: you think he's a war criminal, but that's not the 647 00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:26,960 Speaker 1: policy of the United States. Is it possible to draw 648 00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:28,680 Speaker 1: that line now that you've had more time to think 649 00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:31,400 Speaker 1: about it. It's very difficult to draw that line when 650 00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:33,719 Speaker 1: you're the president of the United States, which is a 651 00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:37,279 Speaker 1: particular position. So we can all understand and appreciate how 652 00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:40,480 Speaker 1: Joe Biden feels. Nobody wants Vladimir Putin to remain, at 653 00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:43,560 Speaker 1: least from the West in the presidency, but the president 654 00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:47,200 Speaker 1: has an obligation to be very careful and more importantly, 655 00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:50,880 Speaker 1: because he distracts from what was otherwise a very successful 656 00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:54,840 Speaker 1: trip in a successful effort again to keep this coalition together. 657 00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:57,040 Speaker 1: And you know, on top of all of those things 658 00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,280 Speaker 1: that they are dealing with in terms of the allies, 659 00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:02,520 Speaker 1: they also have domestic considerations. I mean, McCrone is up 660 00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:05,759 Speaker 1: for reelection, he wants to establish himselfs as you know, 661 00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:09,240 Speaker 1: the Russian whisperer over in Europe. These are all considerations 662 00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:11,360 Speaker 1: that they've got to keep in in mind, top of 663 00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:15,880 Speaker 1: mind as they try to keep this really contentious alliance together. 664 00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:18,319 Speaker 1: I agree with George, they've done a really good job. 665 00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:20,800 Speaker 1: It's stronger than it has been, but it could also 666 00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:25,560 Speaker 1: disintegrate or at least break apart fairly quickly, and that's 667 00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:28,360 Speaker 1: what the administration has to guard against. Still no sanctions, 668 00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:34,600 Speaker 1: legislation on Capitol Hill, George doesn't matter. Yeah, all this matters. 669 00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:37,640 Speaker 1: It's it's it's planned, three dimensional chess, and there's so 670 00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:40,080 Speaker 1: many variables and factors on going with this thing. But 671 00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:43,560 Speaker 1: I would take some issue with with partisans on either 672 00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:47,360 Speaker 1: side who criticized the president of the other party on 673 00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:50,360 Speaker 1: everything on time. I don't think it's very effective and 674 00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:53,160 Speaker 1: outside of the rash statements for the weekend, I think 675 00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:55,719 Speaker 1: the administration has really handled as well. We just don't 676 00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:58,160 Speaker 1: want to spiral out of control. We want to support 677 00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:00,320 Speaker 1: the Ukraine's as much as we possibly can in and 678 00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:02,279 Speaker 1: get the Russians out of there in a ceasefire as 679 00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:05,520 Speaker 1: soon as possible, and not making a lot worse than 680 00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:06,920 Speaker 1: it could be. Right now, it's just a it's a 681 00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:09,760 Speaker 1: it's a regional conflict with a whole lot of human tragedy, 682 00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:13,560 Speaker 1: but on a grand strategy scale geopolitically, it's it's not 683 00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:16,600 Speaker 1: that big a deal yet on the sanctions front, Genie, 684 00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:19,400 Speaker 1: the Treasury has been certainly leaning into this. Does Congress 685 00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:21,480 Speaker 1: need to show up with something? I mean, my goodness, 686 00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:25,439 Speaker 1: even if it's uh something that that's already been done. 687 00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:28,960 Speaker 1: The amount of talk that has come from Capitol Hill 688 00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:32,399 Speaker 1: without anything to show for it, Uh, it is getting 689 00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:34,080 Speaker 1: to be a little bit long on the tooth here. 690 00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:36,680 Speaker 1: This is this war is a month old. It's a 691 00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:38,720 Speaker 1: month old. You know. It's one of the rare times 692 00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:41,359 Speaker 1: in which we see bipartisan in Washington, at least lip 693 00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:44,879 Speaker 1: service to bipartisanship. Everybody agrees that things should be done. 694 00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:46,879 Speaker 1: You know the scale and how much and those kinds 695 00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:50,040 Speaker 1: of things. There's differences, but you know, certainly I would 696 00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:52,080 Speaker 1: like to see them do something on sanctions. I think 697 00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:55,200 Speaker 1: most people would, but quite frankly, the president and that 698 00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:58,480 Speaker 1: the executive can also handle a good deal of that. 699 00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:01,719 Speaker 1: But I think for versus sake, they should step up 700 00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:04,399 Speaker 1: and try to get something past. But I wouldn't hold 701 00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:07,279 Speaker 1: my breath on that. Well, I'll tell you we're going 702 00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:10,360 Speaker 1: to have an interesting time watching this unfold. At the 703 00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:13,360 Speaker 1: same time as a budget debate continues or begins, I 704 00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:16,680 Speaker 1: guess the CHIP Act still not done on that front either. 705 00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:19,640 Speaker 1: You start wondering, Genie, how much can get done in 706 00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:23,520 Speaker 1: a midterm election year. I asked Congressman Style about that 707 00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:26,040 Speaker 1: a little bit earlier. He seems to think that the 708 00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:28,719 Speaker 1: China Competes Act does get done in the near term. 709 00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:32,239 Speaker 1: Do you agree? You know, I think it can get done. 710 00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:35,200 Speaker 1: I was happy to hear that he was optimistic about it. 711 00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:37,560 Speaker 1: I think there is some optimism on that, and Joe, 712 00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:39,760 Speaker 1: I hope you're just whispering every time you talk about 713 00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:43,200 Speaker 1: this mid term from now on. That's that's that's the best. Um. 714 00:38:43,280 --> 00:38:46,080 Speaker 1: I do think we can be a little bit optimistic 715 00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:48,600 Speaker 1: that they may be able to move forward, but it's 716 00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:51,320 Speaker 1: going to depend on awful lot on both sides, and 717 00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:54,920 Speaker 1: particularly the Democrats in the House. Making sure that the 718 00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:58,560 Speaker 1: focus is on competitiveness with China and that they aren't 719 00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:01,680 Speaker 1: shoving things into the legis slation that's gonna turn aside 720 00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:05,360 Speaker 1: the members of the Senate, particularly those moderates. How important 721 00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:08,440 Speaker 1: is it that get past George very much so. My 722 00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:11,840 Speaker 1: my senior Senator John Corn has been an active proponent 723 00:39:11,960 --> 00:39:14,560 Speaker 1: backer for several years now, and I think that the 724 00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:16,759 Speaker 1: American people have gotten wise of the fact that that 725 00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:20,320 Speaker 1: it's not a miracle. Um, it's it's it's only a 726 00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:22,640 Speaker 1: miracle when things happen in Congress. It's usually the case 727 00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:24,640 Speaker 1: they don't happen in Congress. And this act should have 728 00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:27,520 Speaker 1: been passed a long time ago, and they're they're so dysfunctional, 729 00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:31,160 Speaker 1: it's bogged down. It takes fifty times as long as 730 00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:33,400 Speaker 1: it should. But I'm optimistic this is such a no 731 00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:35,560 Speaker 1: brainer than I think it's going to get through. I 732 00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:37,400 Speaker 1: hope it gets through it. If we were talking to 733 00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:42,680 Speaker 1: the Commerce Secretary about this last fall, it's really been 734 00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:45,400 Speaker 1: await George C. Thanks so much for the time and 735 00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:49,880 Speaker 1: insights today, and of course Genie Chanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributor 736 00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:52,640 Speaker 1: with us here on the fastest hour in politics. As 737 00:39:52,719 --> 00:39:55,359 Speaker 1: we we end with a couple of thoughts about Don 738 00:39:55,520 --> 00:40:00,680 Speaker 1: Young's today lives in state statutory hall, in the House 739 00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:03,680 Speaker 1: that he called home for longer than any Republican ever, 740 00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:06,760 Speaker 1: and that's something The Dean of the House, congressman from Alaska, 741 00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:11,200 Speaker 1: the longest serving Republican in congressional history, died a week 742 00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:14,200 Speaker 1: ago at a eight. President Biden, among those paying respects today, 743 00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:18,000 Speaker 1: went up to Capitol Hill. Libby Casey's obituary in the 744 00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:23,279 Speaker 1: Washington Post recalls a great story, as she says, one 745 00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:26,719 Speaker 1: of the great stories of Capitol Hill folklore. Early in 746 00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:30,319 Speaker 1: John Bayner's career, back when he was a freshman, gave 747 00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:34,120 Speaker 1: a floor speech railing against your marks, and suddenly found himself, 748 00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:37,000 Speaker 1: as I read from the Post, shoved up against the 749 00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:39,399 Speaker 1: back wall of the House chamber with a ten inch 750 00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:45,239 Speaker 1: knife to his throat his assailant, representative Don Young. He 751 00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:47,760 Speaker 1: held the blade at my throat, screaming at me, recalls Bayner. 752 00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:51,000 Speaker 1: Young deemed the story mostly true, claimed the knife blade 753 00:40:51,080 --> 00:40:56,600 Speaker 1: wasn't actually open. He spoke about his career as well 754 00:40:56,920 --> 00:41:00,359 Speaker 1: and the prospect of retiring. I think that was him 755 00:41:00,440 --> 00:41:02,399 Speaker 1: right there. Listen to him talking to the Washington Post. 756 00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:05,640 Speaker 1: This idea of retirement has always been one. I cannot 757 00:41:05,760 --> 00:41:08,399 Speaker 1: understand why people retire when they like what they're doing. 758 00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:10,680 Speaker 1: George Miller's gone. He's a dear friend of mine, but 759 00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:13,359 Speaker 1: he's leaving. Henry Wax was gone. I can go through 760 00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:17,440 Speaker 1: the list of people who retired, and I really don't 761 00:41:17,480 --> 00:41:19,800 Speaker 1: know why they retired. My goals have lived to be 762 00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:22,680 Speaker 1: ninety and serving until serve fifty years. How's that so? 763 00:41:22,920 --> 00:41:27,720 Speaker 1: Not many have done that? Man at nine years service 764 00:41:28,600 --> 00:41:31,280 Speaker 1: marches Women's History Month every day this month for celebrating 765 00:41:31,320 --> 00:41:34,839 Speaker 1: significant moments with Bloomberg's Nita Young. Here she is now 766 00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:39,400 Speaker 1: on this day in Women's History in Catherine Callback becomes 767 00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:43,000 Speaker 1: the first woman elected as premier in Canada. She led 768 00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:47,480 Speaker 1: Prince Edward Island and was among female pioneers in Canadian politics. 769 00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:50,920 Speaker 1: Despite growing up hearing politics was not a place for women, 770 00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:54,360 Speaker 1: Callback successfully ran for office in the House of Commons 771 00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:58,320 Speaker 1: in nineteen seventy four, serving for four years. For a 772 00:41:58,440 --> 00:42:02,360 Speaker 1: decade after that, callback in her family's hardware, building, furniture 773 00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:07,600 Speaker 1: and appliances business. Returning to politics and although two other 774 00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:12,160 Speaker 1: women reached premier status before her through party or legislative selection, 775 00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:15,520 Speaker 1: callback was unique because she became the first woman in 776 00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:19,880 Speaker 1: Canada elected premier in a general election. That's today in 777 00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:24,479 Speaker 1: women's history. I'm Rinita Young, Bloomberg Radio. Thanks for Nita, 778 00:42:24,560 --> 00:42:27,200 Speaker 1: and to everyone for jumping in here. The fastest hour 779 00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:31,840 Speaker 1: in politics Congress from Bryant Style, Michael Correa, the pot Lobbyist, 780 00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:35,800 Speaker 1: an ambassador, James Jeffrey making a smarter today, along with 781 00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:38,359 Speaker 1: our panel, Genie and George. Will meet you back here 782 00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:41,840 Speaker 1: tomorrow for more sound on. I'm Joe Matthew. This is 783 00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:42,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg