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Speaker 1: in West Virginia. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight, presented
Speaker 1: by FanDuel here at the volume. Happy Friday, everybody, congrats
Speaker 1: on making it to the weekend where you're going to
Speaker 1: be covering the Golden State Warriors and they're convincing when
Speaker 1: over the Miami Heat yesterday. We're also going to kind
Speaker 1: of briefly touch on the Miami Heat, and then the
Speaker 1: team that most people in the comments last night wanted
Speaker 1: us to do a little bit of a deep dive
Speaker 1: into this morning was the Toronto Raptors, and so we'll
Speaker 1: be doing a dive into them on both ends of
Speaker 1: the ball and their start to this season. You guys
Speaker 1: know the drill before we get started. Subscribe to the
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Speaker 1: find them wherever you get your podcasts. Under Hoops Tonight,
Speaker 1: all right, let's talk some basketball. So goodwin for the Warriors.
Speaker 1: Got back on track. Defense still isn't quite where it
Speaker 1: needs to be, but they're making progress. They had a
Speaker 1: hundred and eight defensive rating last night against Miami. In particular,
Speaker 1: I'm not super thrilled about that in terms of the
Speaker 1: rest of the league that now they're down to so
Speaker 1: I'm sure Steve Kerr is going to really be harping
Speaker 1: on that. But things are clicking so well on the
Speaker 1: offensive end of the floor that there's still a lot
Speaker 1: to be excited about. And here's the thing, Miami's just
Speaker 1: a pain in the ass. They're never gonna quit. They're
Speaker 1: super well coached. They're gonna find ways to make you
Speaker 1: feel uncomfortable. Jimmy Butler is always a threat to have
Speaker 1: a big game, especially in a in a moment that
Speaker 1: appears like a high pressure situation, like a road game
Speaker 1: nationally televised this time on NBA TV. I suppose but
Speaker 1: in Golden State against the defending champions, Like, Jimmy's just
Speaker 1: going to play well in a game like that, and
Speaker 1: he did, and he made a lot of timely shots
Speaker 1: to keep this game close. Um, you also happen to
Speaker 1: catch one of those random games that's it's like I swear,
Speaker 1: it's like one out of every ten games you get.
Speaker 1: Bamata Bio just super confident scoring the basketball because like
Speaker 1: Bamata Bio actually has like a really nice short range game. Obviously,
Speaker 1: he's not a stretch big, he's not going to consistently
Speaker 1: make you pay from the three point line, but he
Speaker 1: has one of the best like short jumpers that you
Speaker 1: see in the league, like little five foot jumpers, seven
Speaker 1: foot jumpers, ten foot jumpers. He actually hit a couple
Speaker 1: of longer ones in this game as well. But when
Speaker 1: he really gets comfortable and confident with that shot, he's
Speaker 1: really difficult to guard. Because he's a free athlete, Guys
Speaker 1: are accustomed to giving him space. He just elevates over
Speaker 1: the top and can knock those shots down. You guys
Speaker 1: probably remember Game six in Boston last year when the
Speaker 1: heat kept that series going and sent it to seven.
Speaker 1: Been a similar type of vibe where it was like
Speaker 1: it was almost like unrecognizable the level of aggression you
Speaker 1: were seeing from Bam. So a lot of that kind
Speaker 1: of led to Miami having a relatively successful offensive night
Speaker 1: against Golden State. That said, they got absolutely obliterated on
Speaker 1: the other end of the floor. I think Golden State
Speaker 1: had about a hundred and twenty six offensive rating in
Speaker 1: this game. It was actually way closer than it should
Speaker 1: have been. Golden States shot much better from the field,
Speaker 1: they shot much better from three. They completely pulverized them
Speaker 1: on the glass fifty thirty one UM. Specifically, James Wiseman,
Speaker 1: uh Kavan Luny and Draymond Green did an awesome job
Speaker 1: on the offensive glass. They combined for seven offensive rebounds.
Speaker 1: Andrew Wiggins to like There are so many times where
Speaker 1: you're watching and and you don't even see him, and
Speaker 1: he'll just come flying in out of nowhere to grab
Speaker 1: contested offensive rebounds over the top. Those plays feel like
Speaker 1: big momentum plays in a basketball game too. The Warriors
Speaker 1: also one points in the paint forty to thirty four.
Speaker 1: This was a destructive dominant performance that was kept close
Speaker 1: because of turnovers um. You know, this is something that's
Speaker 1: happened time to time over the years with the Warriors.
Speaker 1: They just can be a little fast and loose with
Speaker 1: their offense. Miami two, I mean they're the I think
Speaker 1: they're you know, I think they're organizationally every bit as
Speaker 1: smart as Golden State is. They just don't have the talent.
Speaker 1: And they did a really nice job of mixing up
Speaker 1: man coverages and zone. They a lot of zone in
Speaker 1: this particular game. Jimmy Butler, baym at a Bio and
Speaker 1: Kyle Lowry in particular, are really good at kind of
Speaker 1: camping just outside of a passing lane and bating you
Speaker 1: into thinking that a pass or a swing pass or
Speaker 1: a skip pass or something like that is open when
Speaker 1: it's not. And then they'll jump into that gap and
Speaker 1: and force a turnover. That is one of their specific strengths,
Speaker 1: and they I tell you, Steph and Draymond in particular,
Speaker 1: there were several times where they were just making simple
Speaker 1: swing passes that someone would jump the passing. There was
Speaker 1: one in the third quarter where Draymond Green was bringing
Speaker 1: the ball up the right side and before he even
Speaker 1: got to half court, I think it was Moses Moody
Speaker 1: running along the left wing and he's just like, I'll
Speaker 1: try this skip ahead pass and Jimmy Butler jumped it,
Speaker 1: or like Steph Curry like dribbling at the top of
Speaker 1: the key, you know, trying to figure out which way
Speaker 1: he's gonna attack the zone, and Clay Thompson is on
Speaker 1: the wing and he just throws it to Klay Thompson
Speaker 1: and Jimmy Butler jumps it and gets a steal. Like
Speaker 1: a lot of just sloppiness and and some of that too,
Speaker 1: is just the way Miami plays there towards the top
Speaker 1: of the league and steals again this year just like
Speaker 1: they were last year. They're they're they're always going to
Speaker 1: be good in in those areas of the game, and
Speaker 1: they took advantage of some sloppiness for Golden State and
Speaker 1: kept the game close. They had sixteen steals in this game,
Speaker 1: but at the end of the day, Um, they were
Speaker 1: obliterated in every single other facet of the game. So
Speaker 1: even though it occasionally got close, it never really truly
Speaker 1: felt it felt like Golden State was threatened and and
Speaker 1: so again, like you're never gonna, like I said, with
Speaker 1: these defense details, these changes never happen overnight. You're not
Speaker 1: going to go from being an average defense to a
Speaker 1: great defense in one night. You have to build habits,
Speaker 1: build continuity, build connective tissue. You're training younger defensive players
Speaker 1: like James Wiseman and Moses Moody to take significant roles.
Speaker 1: You know you've you've got because of injuries, You've got
Speaker 1: some unusual guys in the lineup in terms of the rotation. Um. Obviously,
Speaker 1: when Clay Thompson and Draymond Green have their minutes restrictions lifted,
Speaker 1: you're gonna have a little bit less of those guys anyway.
Speaker 1: So I do think over time you're gonna see Golden
Speaker 1: States defensive rating tick up. But I'm sure that Kerr
Speaker 1: is not super pleased at this point. Um, Clay Thompson
Speaker 1: finally got going in that second half. He made four
Speaker 1: or three some big ones too to stop Miami runs.
Speaker 1: That probably felt good for him after, you know, after
Speaker 1: the ejection with Devin Booker, there was a lot of talk,
Speaker 1: a lot of slander directed towards Clay, a lot of
Speaker 1: stuff like, oh, if Devin Booker switched places with him
Speaker 1: in his career, the Warriors would be even better, and
Speaker 1: all this kind of stuff. And I think that stuff
Speaker 1: is completely loaded. Um, there's just so much that you
Speaker 1: have to get into there. And I think that Clay
Speaker 1: Thompson's resume is unassailable. He's played so well in so
Speaker 1: many huge playoff games, and he's a tent just many
Speaker 1: many times the defensive player that Devin Booker is, I
Speaker 1: think I think that's kind of disrespectful. So it probably
Speaker 1: felt good for Klay Thompson to finally get going in
Speaker 1: that second half and make some big plays in a
Speaker 1: Warrior win. Um. But I wanted to spend some time
Speaker 1: on Steph. You know, I talked a lot a lot
Speaker 1: about Steff over the course of the summer, so in
Speaker 1: the early part of the season, I was kind of
Speaker 1: focusing on some of the other parts of the roster.
Speaker 1: But the truth is He's been one of the most
Speaker 1: impressive guys in the league to start the season. Among
Speaker 1: the guys that I had towards the top of my
Speaker 1: player rankings, Janice, Luca, and Steph are the ones that
Speaker 1: are impressing me the most. Tatum's putting up big scoring numbers,
Speaker 1: and I had him at sixth I believe in my
Speaker 1: player rankings just kind of a homage to what he
Speaker 1: did in his playoff run. But Tatum's kind of abandoning
Speaker 1: playmaking so far in this season, and that is deeply
Speaker 1: concerning to me because that's such a huge part of
Speaker 1: why I had him as high as I did. I
Speaker 1: think he's only averaging like three and a half assists
Speaker 1: per game, which just goes to show you that he's
Speaker 1: kind of got his head in the wrong place compared
Speaker 1: to what his idealized peak version of himself is. So
Speaker 1: even though he's putting up the numbers, I don't put
Speaker 1: him in that conversation. Uh, Katie is putting up scoring numbers,
Speaker 1: but he's not good enough in the details right now,
Speaker 1: and his team is suffering for it. Specifically, Luca, Steph,
Speaker 1: and Janice are picking up exactly where they left off
Speaker 1: at the end of last season and playing dominant basketball.
Speaker 1: Stephen is playing with the confidence of a champion. You know,
Speaker 1: a guy that just clearly got the monkey off his
Speaker 1: back last year. Not that he had a real monkey.
Speaker 1: It was just like he had three titles. The first
Speaker 1: two everyone pointed to k D and then the first
Speaker 1: one or the last two, everyone pointed to Katie. And
Speaker 1: then the first one everyone said he got lucky because
Speaker 1: of injuries. And so this one was like the the unassailable,
Speaker 1: like you can't you can't undercut this one. This one's
Speaker 1: for real, and you could tell that confident this is
Speaker 1: is coming, uh, coming out of his pores. Literally, he's
Speaker 1: just he's just he's just exuding that every game. And
Speaker 1: he struggled most of last season, if you guys remember
Speaker 1: in the regular season, so to see him playing really
Speaker 1: well in the regular season this year is a good sign.
Speaker 1: He's averaging thirty one, six and six on sixty six
Speaker 1: percent true shooting. Now remember in that two thousand sixteen
Speaker 1: unanimous m VP campaign he had a sixty seven percent
Speaker 1: true shooting percentage, it was averaging thirty So he's basically
Speaker 1: scoring at a higher rate and at about the same
Speaker 1: efficiency as his unanimous MVP season. He's shooting fifty percent
Speaker 1: on six point four pull up threes per game. That's outrageous.
Speaker 1: He's shooting fort on ten point two above the break
Speaker 1: threes per game. That's completely insane. He's shooting fortent on
Speaker 1: seven mid to short range attempts per game. So that's
Speaker 1: the mid range, and then everything in the paint that's
Speaker 1: outside of the restricted area that's really really good. And
Speaker 1: then this is the wild part. And you saw this
Speaker 1: on display last night against Miami. Steph is looking extremely
Speaker 1: explosive going to the rim, like as explosive as he's
Speaker 1: looked ever in his career. And he's shooting eight in
Speaker 1: the restricted area on almost two makes per game. Now,
Speaker 1: if you guys remember over the summer, we talked a
Speaker 1: lot about this. At the guard position, I want over
Speaker 1: six and at the on the at the wing of
Speaker 1: your big wing, I want that over se steps at
Speaker 1: which is just out of control. Um. This is also
Speaker 1: the first time in his career that he's averaged at
Speaker 1: least six assists with less than three turnovers per game.
Speaker 1: He's showing complete offensive mastery on that end of the floor,
Speaker 1: and it almost like reminds me of Lebron in two
Speaker 1: thousand eighteen where I remember, you know, Lebron was always
Speaker 1: very good, but like in the Miami years, there still
Speaker 1: was like a little bit of like the production was there,
Speaker 1: but like you could tell like he didn't he didn't
Speaker 1: have that overwhelming confidence. And then two thousand sixteen, two
Speaker 1: thousand and seventeen, the production reached these insane levels, but
Speaker 1: it's still just didn't quite feel like the the the
Speaker 1: overwhelming confidence. And then there was two thousand eighteen and
Speaker 1: it was like every game you watched Lebron, it was
Speaker 1: like it just felt like he could get to wherever
Speaker 1: he wanted, get to whatever shot he wanted. It was
Speaker 1: complete offensive mastery for him. And I feel like Steps
Speaker 1: entering into that phase of his career right now, and
Speaker 1: it's it's similar because it was about the same age.
Speaker 1: I think Lebron in two thousand eighteen was like thirty
Speaker 1: three thirty four, and at this point Step is thirty four,
Speaker 1: so it's a similar age. You know, it's like mid thirties.
Speaker 1: You still have a good chunk of your athleticism, like
Speaker 1: of your peak athleticism with the basketball i Q that
Speaker 1: comes from years and years and years of experience, and
Speaker 1: then your skill set is as polished as it's ever
Speaker 1: going to be. And then yeah, when you get into
Speaker 1: your late thirties, the physical stuff kind of tails off
Speaker 1: and then you'll start to see some decline. But but like, man,
Speaker 1: he's this might be. This might be the best that Stever,
Speaker 1: that's Steph Stever, That's staff will ever be. This is
Speaker 1: this appears like his peak, kind of similar to the
Speaker 1: two thousand eighteen season for Lebron. So kudos a staff,
Speaker 1: great start to the season. Um, you know, it's gonna
Speaker 1: be an interesting season for the Warriors because they're gonna
Speaker 1: have some downsides as they work through their through their rotation, um,
Speaker 1: trying to build those young guys into usable playoff pieces,
Speaker 1: and it's gonna be a journey. But they're still gonna
Speaker 1: be a pain in the ass. And I wouldn't want
Speaker 1: to see him in a playoff series. Uh, Miami, they're
Speaker 1: down to two and four now, they still can't score
Speaker 1: the basketball. There twenty third in offense outside of Jimmy Butler.
Speaker 1: They aren't getting consistent production really out of anyone on
Speaker 1: the roster. Tyler Harrow in particular is not shooting the
Speaker 1: ball well to start the year. But the biggest concern
Speaker 1: is their defense has fallen off of a cliff. Last
Speaker 1: year they were fourth and defense overall fifth in the
Speaker 1: half court according to Cleaning the Glass. This year, their
Speaker 1: half court defense is down to fifteen. Now. I will
Speaker 1: say that their schedule has played a big role in this.
Speaker 1: They've had a really tough schedule to start the year.
Speaker 1: They had Chicago, Boston, Toronto twice, then Portland's do they
Speaker 1: actually beat convincingly in Golden State, So the schedule has
Speaker 1: played a role in this. But their defense is not
Speaker 1: as good as it was last year. This was a
Speaker 1: concern for us after they lost p J. Tucker. They're
Speaker 1: legitimately very thin in the front court and nowhere near
Speaker 1: as physical as they were last year. The big concern
Speaker 1: is with the loss of p J. Tucker, they're getting
Speaker 1: absolutely demolished on the glass. Like we talked about last night,
Speaker 1: Golden State outrebounded them fifty to thirty one, there twenty
Speaker 1: seven in rebounding percentage. Overall, they're just too small and
Speaker 1: on athletic on the perimeter, and they don't have enough
Speaker 1: size on the interior to make up for it. Their
Speaker 1: aggregate size of most of their good lineups is just
Speaker 1: not big enough. And look, I get that they were
Speaker 1: one shot away from the finals last year, and so
Speaker 1: it can be easy to say like we're this close,
Speaker 1: you know, But the reality is is is this team
Speaker 1: needs to make a move. In my opinion, they just
Speaker 1: simply don't have the pieces and and and I think
Speaker 1: they or estimated how much p J. Tucker was valuable
Speaker 1: to them. Look, I I won't I won't ever count
Speaker 1: out Eric Spoelstra. That would be foolish. I won't ever
Speaker 1: count out Jimmy Butler. Those guys terrify me in a
Speaker 1: playoff environment. But right now, this looks like a team
Speaker 1: that fundamentally doesn't have the requisite physicality defensively and on
Speaker 1: the glass to compete in an NBA playoff environment. So
Speaker 1: I'd be pretty concerned if I was a Miami Heat
Speaker 1: fan at this point. So last night I asked you guys,
Speaker 1: because we have been talking a lot of Warriors and
Speaker 1: Lakers lately. Um, you know, and for those of you
Speaker 1: guys that have been watching the shows, like look in
Speaker 1: our in our thumbnails and in our descriptions, we're gonna
Speaker 1: mention Warriors and Lakers. That's just good business. And we're
Speaker 1: gonna mention them at the top of the show. Usually
Speaker 1: that's just good businesses. At the end of the day,
Speaker 1: we're not doing this for fun. I don't work all
Speaker 1: these hours for fun. We do this because it's our job.
Speaker 1: And and uh, the reality is is I do want
Speaker 1: to have as much of a wide range and coverage
Speaker 1: of the league as I can. And they were probably
Speaker 1: like four videos or so that I did since the
Speaker 1: start of the season where if you get past that
Speaker 1: opening segment, I am doing dies into all of these
Speaker 1: other games where one of the videos we covered seven games,
Speaker 1: another video we covered five games. So just keep looking
Speaker 1: in the latter half of the videos, that's where you're
Speaker 1: gonna see the analysis of some of the other teams
Speaker 1: around the league. But last night I ask you guys,
Speaker 1: what you what team? Um, you guys wanted to hear
Speaker 1: me talk about and the and the team that got
Speaker 1: most frequently mentioned in the comments was the Toronto Raptors.
Speaker 1: So we're gonna do a little deep dive in Toronto
Speaker 1: right now. So last after they beat Philly on Wednesday,
Speaker 1: they moved up to three and two. Uh, they have
Speaker 1: Philly again tonight. We'll see how that goes um there
Speaker 1: in offense twelve and defense eleventh and net rating a
Speaker 1: lot of good on the offensive end so far. Uh,
Speaker 1: Pascal Siakam has been incredible nine and eight to start
Speaker 1: the season. He's playing with the confidence that I've never
Speaker 1: seen from him. In that Sixers game on Wednesday, he
Speaker 1: was like, it was kind of cool to see him
Speaker 1: talking shipped to p J Tucker and you could tell
Speaker 1: p J. Tucker was kind of daring him to shoot,
Speaker 1: and he stuck one and then like ran down the
Speaker 1: floor and basically like you could tell p J. Tucker
Speaker 1: said something along the lines of like I'm gonna leave
Speaker 1: you open all night, something along those lines, and then
Speaker 1: p J or Pascal Siakam was like, okay, bet, let's
Speaker 1: see how this goes for you. And the rest of
Speaker 1: that first quarter he lit p J. Tucker on fire
Speaker 1: with three points shots and every time down the floor
Speaker 1: was letting him know about it. He is shooting on
Speaker 1: five pull up mid range jumpers per game in in
Speaker 1: combination with shooting thirty six percent from three overall. So
Speaker 1: that was one of their biggest issues last year against
Speaker 1: the Sixers, which we'll talk about when we get to
Speaker 1: that point. But Pascal Siakam becoming a confident jump shooter
Speaker 1: would go a long way towards helping this team in
Speaker 1: a playoff environment. Um offensively, but we're all that's your
Speaker 1: biggest bright spot right now on offense is how good
Speaker 1: PJ Tucker? Excuse me, how good Pascal Siakam looks. One
Speaker 1: concern the pull up three isn't quite there yet, and
Speaker 1: that's gonna be a big one for him, I think,
Speaker 1: over the course of his career. But overall, he's playing
Speaker 1: like an all the NB all NBA player on both
Speaker 1: ends and that's exciting. Gary Trent Jr. Is averaging twenty
Speaker 1: The biggest thing that would concern me offensively right now
Speaker 1: is as a team, they're shooting like absolutely lights out
Speaker 1: from three to a completely unrealistic extent. And I'm sure
Speaker 1: most of you Raptors fans probably would agree with me
Speaker 1: watching these games. So check this out. Chris Boucher, Delano, Benton,
Speaker 1: Fred VanVleet, Malick Hi Flynn, and Scottie Barnes are all
Speaker 1: shooting over fifty percent on catching shoot threes over Gary
Speaker 1: Trent Jr. O g Andnobi and Pascal Siakam are all
Speaker 1: shooting over on catching shoot threes. That's not sustainable. It
Speaker 1: just simply isn't not. The best teams in the league
Speaker 1: are going to have the best shooting teams in the
Speaker 1: league are going to have that level of shooting from
Speaker 1: the role players. Here's why that concerns me. They're already,
Speaker 1: according to Cleaning the Glass, twenty four and half court offense.
Speaker 1: So yeah, they're fifteenth in offense overall, but they're being
Speaker 1: carried by the fact that their third in transition efficiency.
Speaker 1: They run the floor really well, which is gonna be
Speaker 1: a strength of theirs, and we'll talk about how they
Speaker 1: might be able to weaponize that here in a second.
Speaker 1: But they are twenty four in half court offense right
Speaker 1: now with that super hot shooting, and like think of it,
Speaker 1: like this last year against Toronto in that playoff series,
Speaker 1: they shot thirty four percent on catching shoot threes in
Speaker 1: that series when they were wide open, meaning defenders at
Speaker 1: least six ft away, they shot thirty five percent. And
Speaker 1: this year they're shooting forty six percent as a team
Speaker 1: on catching shoot three So where's the real Are they
Speaker 1: getting better? Sure? Like Sam's form looks like looks really
Speaker 1: solid and confident. Scottie Barnes looks like he's made improvements
Speaker 1: over the summer as a shooter, So they're gonna shoot
Speaker 1: better than they did against Toronto last year. Excuse me,
Speaker 1: against uh Philly last year, I kept saying Toronto. Those
Speaker 1: numbers I was quoting was against Philadelphia in that first
Speaker 1: round series. They were thirty on catching shoot threes on
Speaker 1: wide open threes. But they're gonna be better than that
Speaker 1: because of natural improvement of players. But they're not gonna
Speaker 1: shoot forty six per cent on catching shoot threes. So
Speaker 1: with them already struggling to score in the half court,
Speaker 1: when the shooting numbers normalize, that could be an issue.
Speaker 1: The reality is this is a physically imposing team that
Speaker 1: has gone all in on these huge wings and there's
Speaker 1: a lot of pluses that come with that, but they're
Speaker 1: relatively low and offensive skill compared to the rest of
Speaker 1: the league. They do run some pick and rolls with
Speaker 1: guys like Gary Trent Jr. And Fred VanVleet, but most
Speaker 1: of their offense it's just Scottie Barnes, Pascal Siakam and
Speaker 1: O g n and Obi picking a matchup that they
Speaker 1: like and trying to bully their way to the rim,
Speaker 1: and I typically like that kind of offense, that brute
Speaker 1: force type of offense, because it translates really well to
Speaker 1: the postseason. But I usually like that when it's more skilled,
Speaker 1: like when it's coming for a guy like Luca or
Speaker 1: Kawhile Ord or Lebron Lebron James, where it's that physical
Speaker 1: bullyball mixed with a really high end offensive skill set.
Speaker 1: And right now, outside of Pascal Siakam, it's a lot
Speaker 1: of overwhelming physical talent that doesn't come with the requisite
Speaker 1: offensive skill to be a team that scores in a
Speaker 1: half court easily. That that was that was why I
Speaker 1: wanted them to go after Donovan Mitchell this summer as
Speaker 1: some of you got, as some of you Raptors fans remember,
Speaker 1: or after Kevin Durant. I mean, look, there's a lot
Speaker 1: in the in the future to be excited about. You know,
Speaker 1: o g is improving over the years, Pascal is improving.
Speaker 1: You know, Scottie barn is one of my favorite young
Speaker 1: players in the league. He looks way better. He's going
Speaker 1: to continue to get way better. Maybe in three or
Speaker 1: four years. This all pans out great. You look like
Speaker 1: a top tier contender and everything's fine, but there's also
Speaker 1: a universe here where, by the time Scottie Barnes gets
Speaker 1: to the point where he's ready to be the focal
Speaker 1: point of a championship team, where you lose some of
Speaker 1: this talent elsewhere on the roster and then suddenly you're
Speaker 1: not good enough. That was the delicate balance you had
Speaker 1: over the course of this summer as it pertained to
Speaker 1: the trade trade market. It was do you kind of
Speaker 1: go in on this talent that you have that's clearly
Speaker 1: missing that offensive centerpiece, or do you be patient and
Speaker 1: hope that everyone kind of pans out. And they're going
Speaker 1: the patient route. But here we are in their twenty
Speaker 1: four and half court offense, despite shooting the damn laces
Speaker 1: off the basketball, and that can be concerning bright spot.
Speaker 1: Their third in transition offense, first in fast breakpoints scored
Speaker 1: per game. That's bolstering their offensive rating quite a bit.
Speaker 1: Their first in steals per one possessions kind of reminds me.
Speaker 1: You know, the Lakers that won the title. They were
Speaker 1: a bad half court offense, but they were a good
Speaker 1: offense because of what they did in transition, and all
Speaker 1: season long everyone said, well, what if they can slow
Speaker 1: him down. If you can slow down the Lakers and
Speaker 1: keep them in the half court, you're gonna beat them.
Speaker 1: And then guess what. They got a bunch of steals
Speaker 1: and stops and got out in transition against Portland, and
Speaker 1: then they got a bunch of steel and stops and
Speaker 1: got out in transition against Houston. And then they got
Speaker 1: a bunch of deals and got out in transition against
Speaker 1: port against Denver, and then they got a bunch of
Speaker 1: stops and steals and got out in transition against Miami.
Speaker 1: So at the end of the day, if Toronto can
Speaker 1: play to their style, which is get stops, get out
Speaker 1: and run, then they'll be fine. But if teams managed
Speaker 1: to keep them in the half court, they're gonna have
Speaker 1: hard time winning. It's just the reality, strangely enough, you know,
Speaker 1: and I talked to I did a whole video on
Speaker 1: this in the preseason on Toronto, so you can find
Speaker 1: it if you dig far back into my Twitter feed. Um,
Speaker 1: but they're still overhelping too much for what their talent
Speaker 1: really demands. Defensively, their twenty four and half court defense
Speaker 1: despite having all that length and athleticism, and a huge
Speaker 1: part of it is they've got all these defensive pieces
Speaker 1: that you can leave on an island and force offensive
Speaker 1: players to take difficult shots. But too often, and this
Speaker 1: has always been a Nick Nurse thing. He's he's a
Speaker 1: load up the side kind of coach. He's a if
Speaker 1: you're you know, if you're off ball, you're damn near
Speaker 1: on the mid line every single time, like there's always
Speaker 1: like five defensive players on one side of the court,
Speaker 1: if the balls on the left wing. He is just
Speaker 1: an over help coach with the personnel that doesn't require
Speaker 1: that much help. And as a result, they're giving up
Speaker 1: too many points in the half court for the amount
Speaker 1: of talent that they have. So I mean kind of
Speaker 1: zooming out. And again this is all early. All these
Speaker 1: like characterizations I do with these teams, keep in mind
Speaker 1: that it's early. A lot can change over the course
Speaker 1: of the next couple of weeks. Philly could beat Toronto
Speaker 1: tonight and go on a run, and then everything I
Speaker 1: said about DC Rivers could be irrelevant, you know, So
Speaker 1: like they're everything can change quickly. The Lakers have one
Speaker 1: of the best defenses in the league, so they're owing four,
Speaker 1: but if they start shooting better and they keep getting stops,
Speaker 1: they might just start kicking the ship out of everybody,
Speaker 1: like you never know what's gonna happen. I had a
Speaker 1: lot of people go like, oh, Jason, you had this
Speaker 1: team at you know, you had the Lakers at in
Speaker 1: your power rankings and they're owing four. You had Philly
Speaker 1: at whatever fifth in your power rankings and they're one
Speaker 1: and four. Whatever it is. It's guys, it's early. I'm
Speaker 1: ever going to completely change my outlook of the season
Speaker 1: based on four or five games, but we do learn things.
Speaker 1: What have we learned about the Lakers. They're damn good
Speaker 1: defensive team. What did I predict this summer? I predicted
Speaker 1: that they would be a top five defense. They've been
Speaker 1: a top five defense. Okay. Their offense is shooting historically bad.
Speaker 1: Literally no team in NBA history has shot worse than
Speaker 1: the Lakers through four games on a minimum of eighty attempts.
Speaker 1: I think Tom Haverstroe tweeted that out yesterday. That's not
Speaker 1: going to sustain. They're gonna shoot better when they do.
Speaker 1: If they keep getting stops, they're gonna be a better
Speaker 1: basketball team. Me putting them at thirteen is not that crazy.
Speaker 1: Philly still has a ton of talent. They have the
Speaker 1: second best offensive, uh half court offense in the league
Speaker 1: right now. If they figure out some things in their
Speaker 1: transition defense and in their half court defense, they're gonna
Speaker 1: start beating teams. Like It's just the reality. So in general,
Speaker 1: I can't stand when people get all like in your
Speaker 1: face about predictions. I won't take victory lapse on predictions
Speaker 1: because I know predictions are a crap shoot. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: be right some times, I'm gonna be wrong sometimes. If
Speaker 1: it was easy to make predictions, we'd all be in
Speaker 1: Vegas making a ton of money betting on games and outcomes,
Speaker 1: which we all are not doing. We're all we're all
Speaker 1: just having fun with it on fan duel. So that's
Speaker 1: just the reality of it. Um. I What I'm gonna do, though,
Speaker 1: is over the course of the season, try to learn
Speaker 1: lessons watching the film. As we learn lessons, we make adjustments.
Speaker 1: And you'll notice I haven't done a power rankings yet
Speaker 1: since the start of the season. I'll probably give it
Speaker 1: another week, probably next Friday, and we'll touch based on
Speaker 1: some power rankings, and then you know what, We'll give
Speaker 1: it another couple of weeks and then we'll touch based
Speaker 1: on some power rankings, But you gotta give these teams
Speaker 1: time to play some basketball. Like Brooklyn's heading into a
Speaker 1: week stretch of their schedule. They have five pretty inferior
Speaker 1: imponent opponents coming up. They could undo a lot of
Speaker 1: damage to their metrics during that span. The Lakers are
Speaker 1: still in a tough stretch, but they're gonna head into
Speaker 1: an easier stretch after that. You know, Toronto has been
Speaker 1: shooting super well. We'll see what happens when they stopped
Speaker 1: making shots. Miami, uh has played you know, Chicago, Boston,
Speaker 1: Toronto twice, Portland and Golden State. Like they they're due
Speaker 1: to have some easier games. So at the end of
Speaker 1: the day, everyone kind of has like it's too small
Speaker 1: sample size to make sweeping declarations. We just learned what
Speaker 1: we can from teams, and like I've learned through watching
Speaker 1: that Miami is too small. That's just the thing. They're
Speaker 1: They're actually too small. They're not gonna suddenly have no
Speaker 1: no issues with size once they enter a weaker phase
Speaker 1: of their schedule. You know, like you're gonna see that
Speaker 1: the Lakers don't shoot the ball well enough. Yeah, they
Speaker 1: should shoot better than they have been. But I predicted
Speaker 1: before the season, they would be the worst shooting team
Speaker 1: in the n b A not this bad, but I
Speaker 1: predict that they would be bad. That's a personnel weakness.
Speaker 1: They're going to have to address it at some point.
Speaker 1: But hey, here we are, what ten days into the
Speaker 1: regular season, We've learned quite a bit. I'm having fun.
Speaker 1: We're gonna take this weekend off and I will be
Speaker 1: back on Monday afternoon covering the weekend's games. I hope
Speaker 1: you guys all have a fun Halloween, and I will
Speaker 1: see you after the weekend. The volume