1 00:00:11,039 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 1: All right, welcome to Lake Agys Live. It's Tuesday night, 2 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: August thirty. First, we have it on a record. It 3 00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:18,040 Speaker 1: is official the last day of August, and we are 4 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:21,239 Speaker 1: headed trained long into a loaded college football weekend. It 5 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:23,360 Speaker 1: is the Year of Our Lord twenty twenty one. It 6 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:25,920 Speaker 1: is a jam packed show. Tonight. We got a big 7 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:28,280 Speaker 1: announcement coming up. We got another addition to the Rama 8 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 1: Noodle Express coming in mere moments. How classy of us. 9 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 1: We're not even gonna make you wait until the end 10 00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 1: of the show, So make sure you're following on Twitter 11 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 1: because you already got the pick earlier today if you 12 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 1: are at late Kick Josh. We are not only adding 13 00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 1: to the Rama Noodle Express tonight, two cars of five 14 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 1: so far on the train for this week. We are 15 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:48,880 Speaker 1: breaking down on multiple angles all the big games this weekend. 16 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:51,320 Speaker 1: We're hitting Georgia Clemson right off the top. We're gonna 17 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 1: hit Bama and Miami. We're gonna hit Penn State, Wisconsin. Tonight, 18 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 1: We're gonna hit North Carolina, Virginia Tech. I'm gonna give 19 00:00:57,600 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 1: you some on Louisiana or Louisiana Lafayette, depending on your 20 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:05,120 Speaker 1: geographical point of view, versus Texas and then on the 21 00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 1: Thursday show, we're gonna loop in Lsuucla. I'll probably do 22 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:10,679 Speaker 1: Florida State Notre Dame on the Sunday show. So we've 23 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 1: got a lot to get to this week. Again, make 24 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:17,119 Speaker 1: sure you're not missing any shows. Also tonight, several more 25 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:19,959 Speaker 1: things that we're looking forward to. I enjoyed that segment 26 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 1: so much the other night. I think it may become 27 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 1: a staple, just the things you're looking forward to, the 28 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 1: things that don't necessarily belong in a game preview, but 29 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:29,440 Speaker 1: we're all thinking about. You're all talking about it around 30 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:31,480 Speaker 1: the water cooler, at the lunch table, or on the 31 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:33,680 Speaker 1: message boards during the week, and so I want to 32 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 1: verbalize it because I feel the same way you guys 33 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 1: do when ever you're riding around occasionally and you know, 34 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:40,560 Speaker 1: something just pops in your head, like I get to 35 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:43,120 Speaker 1: see Travon Henderson run the ball Thursday night for Ohio State. 36 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna say that in a game preview, but 37 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 1: I'm gonna say it tonight, So we'll talk about that. Also, 38 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:50,880 Speaker 1: make sure, as I said, you're following on all the 39 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 1: social channels at Lake Kick Josh. We're headed to Charlotte Friday. 40 00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 1: I can't remember what time I get in there, but 41 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 1: we're headed to Charlotte Friday. I mean I'm gonna have 42 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:01,720 Speaker 1: the eye Josh on hand. I'll be on the sideline 43 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 1: for that game. Sometimes it's press box, sometimes it's sideline, 44 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 1: but I'll be on the field for that game Saturday night. 45 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:08,480 Speaker 1: That means I can give you all kind of access 46 00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:10,240 Speaker 1: that you normally wouldn't get. But you got to be 47 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 1: following on those channels. It's not like we're doing it 48 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 1: live on YouTube, so make sure you're following at Late 49 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 1: Kick Josh also in information just comes out that we 50 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:20,239 Speaker 1: release in a more timely manner that way and bets. 51 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 1: So today just to give a little plug right quick 52 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 1: the Late Kick Extra podcast. So many of you are 53 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 1: new here. We've almost doubled our audience this year. That 54 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 1: I have to periodically remind people the way this works. 55 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 1: Anytime I do a radio hit, most of the hoster 56 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 1: are very courteous at the end and they say remind 57 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:40,640 Speaker 1: people where they can find you. So on the YouTube 58 00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:43,520 Speaker 1: channel we do Late Cack live Sunday night, Tuesday night, 59 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 1: Thursday night. A lot of you are watching it right now. 60 00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:50,040 Speaker 1: Eight Eastern seventh Central. But also we have the podcast feed. 61 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:52,120 Speaker 1: Now you can get replays of all these shows there 62 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:54,960 Speaker 1: the very next morning. But on Tuesday and Thursday morning, 63 00:02:55,240 --> 00:02:57,920 Speaker 1: we also do an exclusive podcast. It does not get 64 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 1: uploaded to YouTube. It is not available any where other 65 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 1: than the podcast feed. It's all mail bag. It's all 66 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:05,800 Speaker 1: Q and A. And we had a wide ranging mail 67 00:03:05,840 --> 00:03:09,000 Speaker 1: bag this morning. Everything from the best thing I've experienced 68 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:11,160 Speaker 1: in person at a college football game, my favorite storm 69 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:15,079 Speaker 1: chasing story, fun fact I chase storms. Also, I mean, 70 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 1: how do you tell someone when they tell you I 71 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 1: love you and you're not ready to say it back. 72 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:22,400 Speaker 1: That was one of the questions submitted. How do we 73 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 1: deal with fall weddings? That was one of the questions. 74 00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 1: So we went all over the place, but we got 75 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 1: to dive into this show because we're loaded. We could 76 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:29,880 Speaker 1: go five hours if I continue at this space. Let's 77 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 1: crank it up with the ram Noodle Express, because I 78 00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:34,240 Speaker 1: want to make sure these numbers don't move, so this 79 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 1: is very time sensitive. Earlier this week I introduced this 80 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 1: to you. These are our best bets of the week. 81 00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 1: We hit at sixty point nine percent against the number 82 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 1: fifty three and thirty four last year. I don't know 83 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 1: if we'll duplicate that. Maybe we'll be better, maybe we'll 84 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 1: be worse. But we trust the process. That's Tom four 85 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 1: Nelly's stuff. We trust the formula. That's what we trust 86 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 1: around here. We cannot we cannot risk gimmick infringement on 87 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 1: the ram Noodle Express. So let's take a look at it, Jesse. 88 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 1: Let's throw it up this fan. I mean, you're only 89 00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 1: finding quality graphics like these in one place, and that 90 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:07,080 Speaker 1: is late cack Live. I already gave you earlier in 91 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:10,520 Speaker 1: the week Cincinnati minus twenty three. They're playing Miami, Ohio. 92 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 1: That number is still widely available. We are now giving 93 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 1: you Temple plus fourteen and a half. They're on the 94 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:19,839 Speaker 1: road at Rutgers. I got some strong pushback about this today, 95 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 1: and as you know, the philosophy around here is it's 96 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 1: okay to disagree. It's always okay to disagree about a 97 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 1: football game, and in life, it's okay to disagree. Just 98 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:31,279 Speaker 1: make sure you're ready to back it up. And to 99 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 1: the person's credit who disagreed with me today, they were 100 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:35,479 Speaker 1: ready to back it up with their wallet, which we 101 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:37,880 Speaker 1: arranged in the DMS several of you have done that 102 00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 1: with me, and you've all paid up. At the end 103 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:42,280 Speaker 1: of the day, we're taking Temple plus fourteen and a half. 104 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:45,359 Speaker 1: That game is Thursday night in Pascataway, New Jersey. So 105 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 1: let's move on. Let's dive into some game predictions. This 106 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:50,480 Speaker 1: is fun. We have not been able to predict games 107 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:54,160 Speaker 1: since January because we didn't predict spring games, although we 108 00:04:54,279 --> 00:04:57,239 Speaker 1: bat a thousand on picking the winner there. Georgia versus 109 00:04:57,279 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 1: Clemson Saturday night, eight pm Eastern Standard Time, kickoff Tigers. 110 00:05:01,560 --> 00:05:03,440 Speaker 1: Actually it's a seven thirty kickoff, Colin. We don't want 111 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 1: to start it that way, all right, So here we go. 112 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 1: Let's just restart the intro for our editing purposes. Three 113 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 1: to one Georgia Clemson primetime game, seven thirty kickoff. I've 114 00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:16,279 Speaker 1: always nailed that. This week in Charlotte, North Carolina, neutral 115 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 1: site game, Tiger's favored by three. We will be in 116 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 1: the house for this one. Everyone in the country's looking 117 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:23,000 Speaker 1: forward to it. Whatever your favorite game is going to 118 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:25,240 Speaker 1: be Saturday, it's either this one or this is your 119 00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 1: number two. Because everyone's looking forward to this to some degree. 120 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:30,560 Speaker 1: Week one sort of messes with your mind, doesn't it. 121 00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:34,120 Speaker 1: Think about what happens a lot of times. You know 122 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:36,240 Speaker 1: this game's coming. None of you have thought about the 123 00:05:36,279 --> 00:05:39,720 Speaker 1: Georgia UAB game next week. Everyone has thought for months 124 00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:42,719 Speaker 1: about the Georgia Clemson game. The way it messes with 125 00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:46,960 Speaker 1: your mind is so much happens in what outsiders would 126 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:50,600 Speaker 1: deem the offseason leading up to this game, everything from 127 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:55,000 Speaker 1: winter conditioning to spring football to your post spring summer stuff. 128 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 1: A lot of things can happen. Injuries can happen. Remember 129 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:01,240 Speaker 1: when George Pickens went down in spring for Georgia. I 130 00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:05,000 Speaker 1: remember the immediate reaction was, they're gonna miss him against Clemson. Man, 131 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:06,440 Speaker 1: they're not going to be able to beat Clemson, or 132 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:10,320 Speaker 1: at least their chances of winning went down significantly. But 133 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 1: then you slowly had time and you built that reservoir 134 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 1: of confidence back up, and then you get the headline, 135 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 1: Eric Gilbert is coming to Georgia. But then he's not 136 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:22,600 Speaker 1: gonna be available, And that's the current situation with Eric Gilbert. 137 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:25,239 Speaker 1: We don't expect him for the time being at least, 138 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:28,039 Speaker 1: and so then status is a little shaky again, and 139 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:30,159 Speaker 1: people who were counting on him to be an impact player, 140 00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 1: all of a sudden you're shaken, and so your confidence 141 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:35,919 Speaker 1: level drops. Then you start building it, building it, building it. 142 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:38,840 Speaker 1: Gets some good whispers and intel from fall camp. Darnell 143 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:41,640 Speaker 1: Washington out four to six weeks, Tyke Smith out four 144 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:44,159 Speaker 1: to six weeks, huge impact both sides of the ball, 145 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 1: and then your confidence is just fractured again. But lo 146 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 1: and behold, how many of you that sat a couple 147 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:52,720 Speaker 1: of weeks ago when those injuries happen, Georgia has no shot. 148 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 1: Let me go dump some money on Clemson. How many 149 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 1: of you have built up the confidence again to at 150 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:01,599 Speaker 1: least consider picking Georgia to this game. I know a 151 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:03,920 Speaker 1: lot of you have. I have too. Let's dive into 152 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 1: the preview. Two key matchups that I don't think you 153 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:09,560 Speaker 1: can overhyphe enough here, and they overlap. If we look 154 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 1: at the ven diagram and we have A and B, 155 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 1: they overlap significantly. The first, which was really I think 156 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 1: spotlighted today with some comments from Dabosweny, is this whole 157 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 1: matchup that we've been talking about for months, that interior 158 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:26,040 Speaker 1: of this Georgia defensive line possibly the best in the country, 159 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:29,240 Speaker 1: and it is a huge matchup advantage for them against Clemson. 160 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 1: Daboswiney at his game week press conference today just told 161 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:36,560 Speaker 1: you flat out we're probably gonna have to rotate centers 162 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:39,800 Speaker 1: in this game. And then on top of that, that's 163 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 1: not bad enough rotating centers against the small houses that 164 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 1: Georgia plays on the interior of the defensive line. And 165 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 1: A Hickey over at Clemson twenty four to seven kind 166 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 1: of chimed in and added, you know, depending on who 167 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 1: they start at center, he may have a true freshman 168 00:07:52,920 --> 00:07:56,120 Speaker 1: starting next to him. It's just not a great matchup. 169 00:07:56,280 --> 00:07:58,760 Speaker 1: I think it could be a pivotal matchup for Georgia here, 170 00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 1: and it fundamentally alters gameplay because of the second in 171 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:08,400 Speaker 1: this ven diagram double circle situation. Think about the Clemson 172 00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 1: wide receiver room, which we have touted all summer long, 173 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 1: and the size and the physicality there against this Georgia's 174 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:19,560 Speaker 1: secondary minus Tikey Smith. Well, one of the things that 175 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 1: you had to really like is you had to really 176 00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:23,680 Speaker 1: like being able to spread those guys out and being 177 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:26,400 Speaker 1: able to work the whole field. Question is can you 178 00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 1: do it? Can you do it? How many times in 179 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 1: this game? Is that Clemson passing attack truly going to 180 00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:34,720 Speaker 1: be able to work? The whole field versus having a 181 00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:37,040 Speaker 1: collapsed pocket in front of you and having to use 182 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:39,240 Speaker 1: half field reads, quarterfield reads, and having to use some 183 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: progression in different level concepts. Because what that does, all 184 00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:45,360 Speaker 1: of a sudden is it shrinks the field and it 185 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:48,080 Speaker 1: also takes away some of that timing and rhythm obviously 186 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 1: that a lot of people are going to depend on. 187 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 1: But I look at it and I think to myself, hmm, 188 00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 1: you would think that the biggest key, especially when you're 189 00:08:56,520 --> 00:08:59,560 Speaker 1: facing size like this at wide receiver, you would think, well, 190 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 1: you know, you got to be able to fight on 191 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:02,720 Speaker 1: those fifty to fifty balls. And yes, there will be 192 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:06,000 Speaker 1: several instances that Georgia defensive backs have to do just 193 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:09,080 Speaker 1: that Saturday night. But I will tell you now, I 194 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 1: don't think it's a great mystery Travis e atn or not. 195 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:15,319 Speaker 1: The first thing Clemson will try and do, the first 196 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 1: thing that offensive staff will try and do is they'll 197 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:20,640 Speaker 1: try and test the physicality of Georgia on the perimeter, 198 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:23,400 Speaker 1: and they'll take a lot of those big bodied receivers 199 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 1: along with the tailbacks that they have, will Shipley included, 200 00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:30,840 Speaker 1: even though he's not starting, and they'll they'll execute perimeter 201 00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:35,079 Speaker 1: run after perimeter run, and they will execute sweeps and screens, 202 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:37,400 Speaker 1: and they'll try and get matchups out there that they 203 00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:40,920 Speaker 1: can't get between the tackles. And if Georgia does not 204 00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 1: possess the ability to shed those kind of blocks from 205 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:45,880 Speaker 1: those big bodied receivers and make tackles, then it's a 206 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:48,520 Speaker 1: long night for them. So those are two factors there 207 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 1: that I think will heavily influence the outcome of this game. 208 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:53,680 Speaker 1: But I also have a couple of other ones just 209 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:55,960 Speaker 1: to think about here as we kind of transition into 210 00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:58,599 Speaker 1: prediction time, because a couple of things that concern me 211 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 1: a little bit more about Georgia is this Clemson staff. 212 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:04,680 Speaker 1: You know, I was talking to someone over the summer. 213 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 1: I had a little birdie just land on my shoulder 214 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 1: and he said, Hey, you want to know what this 215 00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 1: Clemson staff's been doing to get ready for Georgia. Sure, Bertie, 216 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 1: I'd love to know where'd you come from. By the way, 217 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 1: they've been watching that Mississippi State game tape. You may 218 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:19,880 Speaker 1: thinks the Mississippi State have to do with this, Well, 219 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 1: that's the team that last year went into Athens with 220 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:25,680 Speaker 1: under fifty scholarship players and held the University of Georgia 221 00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 1: with James Cook on the field, with JT. Daniels starting 222 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 1: at quarterback, with the Mere White playing with Kenny McIntosh 223 00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:37,280 Speaker 1: playing to twenty three carries for eight yards, not eighty 224 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:42,760 Speaker 1: eight combined yards. That's good for zero point three per pop. Obviously, 225 00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:45,600 Speaker 1: the Clemson brain trust looks and says, if we can 226 00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 1: do half of that, if we can do fractions of that, 227 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:51,079 Speaker 1: then we win this comfortably. Now, it's not an apples 228 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 1: to apples comparison. For instance, there are different dynamics in play. 229 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:57,200 Speaker 1: You got different personnel on the field, but from a 230 00:10:57,280 --> 00:11:03,520 Speaker 1: pure fifty thousand foot schematically schematically speaking standpoint, yeah, I 231 00:11:03,520 --> 00:11:06,240 Speaker 1: think that's right. Clemson looks at it and you can 232 00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:09,800 Speaker 1: understand their confidence and saying largely, we're dealing with the 233 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 1: same staff, same players here. If they did it, we 234 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 1: can do it. Second thing, Okay, so if that's a factor. 235 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 1: Second thing is missing Darnel Washington that tight end for Georgia. Yeah, 236 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:20,160 Speaker 1: it's big on third down. I mean he was going 237 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:21,480 Speaker 1: to make a couple of players or at least have 238 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:25,080 Speaker 1: an opportunity to in the passing game. But man, he 239 00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 1: is such a valuable asset in the run game adding 240 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:30,840 Speaker 1: a gap over there, and he's huge himself. That is 241 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:34,200 Speaker 1: a guy. I remember Rusty Manziel when he first got hurt. 242 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 1: We were talking. He said, you know, twenty years ago, 243 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 1: he's a left tackle. That's the size they used to be, 244 00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:40,960 Speaker 1: not all that long ago. And he's right, and so 245 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:42,800 Speaker 1: it's very very valuable to have a guy like that. 246 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:44,920 Speaker 1: Will you don't? So how much do you miss him? 247 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:46,400 Speaker 1: How much do you miss him on third and five? 248 00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:48,000 Speaker 1: How much do you miss him on first and ten? 249 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:51,920 Speaker 1: For that matter. So the other night you're watching the 250 00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:54,960 Speaker 1: show and I got probably if I got one of you, 251 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 1: I got five hundred of you. Ask me, well, I 252 00:11:57,559 --> 00:12:00,960 Speaker 1: see your predictions. You got Clemson winning the Natational Championship. 253 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:04,120 Speaker 1: That has to mean that you have Clemson winning in 254 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:07,000 Speaker 1: Week one, right, So let's talk about it, Jesse. Let's 255 00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 1: go ahead, and let's take a look at what our 256 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:12,520 Speaker 1: model thinks. So every game that we preview on this show, 257 00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:15,400 Speaker 1: we have the Vegas number, which you see right here. 258 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 1: Our current Caesars line is Clemson minus three, and then 259 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:20,760 Speaker 1: we have the late kick number, our own proprietary model. 260 00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 1: We run it through a thousand times and whatever the 261 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:26,440 Speaker 1: aggregate simulation provides us that's what the late kick line is. 262 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:28,920 Speaker 1: Our model sees it pretty much dead on the money 263 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 1: Clemson minus two and a half. And so think this 264 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:35,960 Speaker 1: out loud with me. We've got Clemson winning the National Championship. 265 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:39,120 Speaker 1: We got our own model, which I trust implicitly picking 266 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:41,600 Speaker 1: Clemson to win. We got odds makers on the side 267 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 1: of Clemson, and about two hours ago, I just totally 268 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:47,320 Speaker 1: had a shift of heart. So I'm going to stick 269 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:49,840 Speaker 1: with Clemson to win the National Championship. I think George 270 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:52,680 Speaker 1: is going to beat him Saturday night. I think that 271 00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:56,160 Speaker 1: that situation along the inside of that Clemson offensive line 272 00:12:56,320 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 1: is going to have a disproportionate impact on this game. 273 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:02,080 Speaker 1: There's several matchups to love if you're a Clemson Tiger fan, 274 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:05,760 Speaker 1: several of them. When I say disproportionate, I think I 275 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:07,679 Speaker 1: mean that one's gonna matter more than any of them. 276 00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 1: So I'm gonna take Georgia plus the three points. I'm 277 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 1: gonna take Georgia to win out right. And I have 278 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:14,760 Speaker 1: gone back and forth with our Steve Wolfong this week, 279 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 1: for example, about which team needs this more. It's been 280 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:20,240 Speaker 1: one of the most popular topics on a lot of 281 00:13:20,240 --> 00:13:22,800 Speaker 1: talk radio over the summer, and I'm not so sure. 282 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 1: He wasn't right. He kind of changed my opinion on it. 283 00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 1: I was of the opinion Clemson needs it because they 284 00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:31,600 Speaker 1: have less they have less fat on their schedule to 285 00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 1: chew on post Georgia game. But there's this other factor 286 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:40,000 Speaker 1: in play, and that factor is Georgia has been selling 287 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 1: cotton candy for a long time on the recruiting trail 288 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:45,720 Speaker 1: and it works. Everyone loves cotton candy, but you can't 289 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 1: survive on it. Eventually, you gotta have some meat to provide. 290 00:13:48,679 --> 00:13:52,680 Speaker 1: And in this context, that meat is a big win 291 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:56,160 Speaker 1: over a highly ranked team, and Georgia doesn't get enough 292 00:13:56,200 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 1: of them, and they need it. They don't have to 293 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:01,640 Speaker 1: have it to survive. It would greatly benefit them to 294 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:04,600 Speaker 1: get this. And there are some people in the recruiting industry, 295 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:08,520 Speaker 1: for example, that believe that they need it at Georgia 296 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:10,960 Speaker 1: even more than Clemson needs it. So fascinating a couple 297 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:12,960 Speaker 1: of dynamics because because I could make the argument on 298 00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:15,959 Speaker 1: the other side, but man, Will Fong had me there. 299 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:18,120 Speaker 1: I said, you know what, Uncle Steve, that's a good point. 300 00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:20,160 Speaker 1: So we're gonna take Georgia to cover. We're gonna take 301 00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:23,680 Speaker 1: Georgia to win, and I'll be there either way. Really 302 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 1: looking forward to that game. So last night on Twitter, 303 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 1: I made an announcement. I don't know if I was 304 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:32,040 Speaker 1: supposed to make it, but we made it anyway. You 305 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 1: remember about a month ago, Colin, I guess it was 306 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:37,080 Speaker 1: about a month ago. I sat right here and I said, 307 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 1: you know what, forget it, We'll just do it. And 308 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,120 Speaker 1: I said, you know, look around. We don't have any 309 00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:46,280 Speaker 1: advertising on the show. Fortunately, they pay us in terms 310 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:48,080 Speaker 1: of salary around here, so we really don't have to 311 00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 1: sell advertising if we want it, though, I said, why 312 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:52,680 Speaker 1: don't we try and go get it? So if you're 313 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:55,960 Speaker 1: a regional or national brand you feel like partnering with us, 314 00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:58,040 Speaker 1: hit us up. We'll show you the price points. If 315 00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:01,720 Speaker 1: it makes sense, then we'll partner up. Disclosure. Some hit 316 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 1: me up that weren't right. So yes, we turned down money, 317 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:06,760 Speaker 1: but I told you we would do that if the 318 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:08,840 Speaker 1: partnership didn't make sense for all of us, and that 319 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:12,400 Speaker 1: includes people other than just me. Well we found one 320 00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:15,960 Speaker 1: that did, because that very night, Academy Sports and Outdoors 321 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 1: hit us up. Maybe you've heard of them, and just 322 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 1: like that because the relationship was facilitated and fostered via 323 00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 1: one of you between us and the high levels over 324 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:29,600 Speaker 1: at Academy, and so we got a deal done, and 325 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:32,160 Speaker 1: it's a big one and I really appreciate you guys 326 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 1: making that happen because the numbers on this show are 327 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:37,680 Speaker 1: now too big to ignore. And this isn't a lemonade 328 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 1: stand down the road. This is Academy Sports and Outdoors. 329 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 1: So they have worked their way right here next to me. 330 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:44,200 Speaker 1: You can't see them, but I'm about to tell you 331 00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 1: Academy Sports and Outdoors we are happy to have them 332 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:49,360 Speaker 1: on board. The calendar tells you football season is here, 333 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 1: and I know good and well every one of you need, well, 334 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 1: really several things. A lot of you need grills, a 335 00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:57,880 Speaker 1: lot of you need canopies, because the last thing you 336 00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:00,680 Speaker 1: want to be at Christmas is the guy that still rocking, 337 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 1: that that like wife beat or Tan that you know, 338 00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:08,400 Speaker 1: sleeveless shirt Tan. You don't want that. And so get 339 00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:10,280 Speaker 1: the canopies, get the grills, get it all, but make 340 00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 1: sure you know where to get it. And now that 341 00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:14,720 Speaker 1: they're partnering with us, we have a vested interest in 342 00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 1: telling you Academy Sports and Outdoors is the place to go. 343 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:19,600 Speaker 1: A lot of you live in towns where you drive 344 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 1: by one every day. But if you don't, I got 345 00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:25,400 Speaker 1: the hookup, Well they do through US Academy dot Com. 346 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:28,640 Speaker 1: Go there all your college football needs. They're the official 347 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:31,760 Speaker 1: outdoor partner of the SEC, They're the official outdoor partner 348 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:34,240 Speaker 1: of the Big Twelve. But most importantly for US, they 349 00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:37,280 Speaker 1: are now the official outdoor sports partner of Late Kick 350 00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:40,120 Speaker 1: Academy Sports and Outdoors. We are thrilled to have them 351 00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:42,560 Speaker 1: on board, and that's going to be I think a 352 00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 1: very much mutually beneficial relationship. Okay, let's continue tonight and 353 00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 1: let's roll down to Atlanta, GA Miami versus Alabama. This 354 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:56,920 Speaker 1: spread is fat, Oh, it is beefy. It's Alabama minus nineteen. 355 00:16:56,960 --> 00:17:00,480 Speaker 1: This is a Saturday afternoon, three point thirty Eastern time kickoff. 356 00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 1: This is an ABC game. Let me give you a 357 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,320 Speaker 1: little refresher course for those of you who are new 358 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:08,400 Speaker 1: on how we handle these big point spread games. Really, 359 00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:11,760 Speaker 1: anything over two touchdowns, we acknowledge the favorite is favored 360 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:15,360 Speaker 1: for a reason. We don't really try and predict multiple 361 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:17,879 Speaker 1: touchdown upsets. It happens, But I don't think there's a 362 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 1: whole lot of skill in predicting that most of the time. 363 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:22,080 Speaker 1: So we'll give you the pick versus the spread in 364 00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:24,200 Speaker 1: just a couple of minutes. But also what we try 365 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:26,080 Speaker 1: and do is we format it a little bit different. 366 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:29,200 Speaker 1: We say, if Miami were to win this game, how 367 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:31,920 Speaker 1: would it happen? So is it possible? Technically it's possible. 368 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:33,760 Speaker 1: If it's not, we don't even waste our time with it. 369 00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:36,119 Speaker 1: But if we think there is a puncher's chance in 370 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:39,199 Speaker 1: some alternate universe, how would it happen? So what is 371 00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 1: the formula for Miami here? And do you think it's possible? 372 00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:45,000 Speaker 1: I guess is the better question for you? How do 373 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:46,840 Speaker 1: they have it within one possession in the fourth quarter? 374 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:48,520 Speaker 1: I guess it's what we're looking for here. Well, I 375 00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:50,399 Speaker 1: think the first thing they need to do is they 376 00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:52,920 Speaker 1: got to have a lead early. They've got to grab 377 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:56,159 Speaker 1: the lead, preferably by more than one touchdown. I was 378 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 1: over on insidetheu dot com today and David Lake had 379 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:02,760 Speaker 1: a stat that I knew had to exist, but I 380 00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:05,359 Speaker 1: didn't know it was this bad. Last year, Miami loses 381 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:08,560 Speaker 1: three games. They lose the Clemson game, they lose against 382 00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:11,359 Speaker 1: North Carolina, and they lose to Oklahoma State. Do you 383 00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:13,679 Speaker 1: know what the combined score in the first quarter of 384 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 1: those games was. It was bad guys, forty nine Miami three. 385 00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:22,199 Speaker 1: That doesn't win you many football games. And none of 386 00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:25,440 Speaker 1: those teams I just read were Alabama. And so this 387 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:29,800 Speaker 1: is like the hardest game probably in terms of that 388 00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:31,760 Speaker 1: game against Clemson last year on the road was tough. 389 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:33,920 Speaker 1: This is one of the hardest matchups that Manny Diez 390 00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:35,560 Speaker 1: will have in his entire career. They have to have 391 00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:38,200 Speaker 1: an early lead. That's imperative. You don't get down thirteen 392 00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:40,919 Speaker 1: nothing against Alabama and then fight your way back with 393 00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:44,120 Speaker 1: an inferior roster compared to theirs. That's not to speak 394 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:47,440 Speaker 1: down of Miami, but almost everyone's inferior compared to Alabama. 395 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:50,520 Speaker 1: They have to steal at least one possession in each half. 396 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:52,119 Speaker 1: If you want to do both of them in the 397 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:54,120 Speaker 1: second half, that's fine. Make sure you're still in the game. 398 00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:55,840 Speaker 1: That could be a turnover, it could be an on 399 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:58,160 Speaker 1: side kick, it could be superior clock management. I don't 400 00:18:58,160 --> 00:18:59,400 Speaker 1: care how you do it, but you got to steal 401 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:03,720 Speaker 1: a couple of sessions. Turnover margin. Yes, you'd love to 402 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:06,280 Speaker 1: be plus two or better. But the stealing of possessions, 403 00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:08,639 Speaker 1: that's really key from Miami. They just got to possess 404 00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:12,600 Speaker 1: the ball enough to make something happen. Alabama is the 405 00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 1: best program in the country at making you do something 406 00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 1: other than you want to do. They take you off 407 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:20,560 Speaker 1: your a game, they remove your fastball, they knock it 408 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 1: out of the park, they hit it four hundred and 409 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:25,800 Speaker 1: forty feet, and they make you show your secondary pitch 410 00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:29,919 Speaker 1: or big word alert, your tertiary pitch. I don't even 411 00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:32,320 Speaker 1: think Vin Scully said that very often. You got to 412 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:35,280 Speaker 1: avoid that, get the lead early, make them question themselves 413 00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 1: instead of them making you question yourself. You got to 414 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:41,199 Speaker 1: throw them off schedule too, because keep in mind now 415 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:42,600 Speaker 1: they do have a lot of new parts over there. 416 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 1: They are human. Although it is Alabama. If it's second 417 00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:48,280 Speaker 1: and five all afternoon, If it's third and one all afternoon, 418 00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:52,119 Speaker 1: and I've got Brian Robinson, and I got Trey Sanders, 419 00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:55,040 Speaker 1: and I got Jason McClellan, and i got Roydale Williams, 420 00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:58,439 Speaker 1: I could roll running backs at you until Wednesday. That 421 00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:01,119 Speaker 1: would run over you on third and you can't have that. 422 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:03,080 Speaker 1: You got to put him in some kind of obvious 423 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:06,000 Speaker 1: passing situations. Enough to where you hope your pass rush 424 00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 1: can take advantage of an offensive line that during fall camp. 425 00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:14,120 Speaker 1: Even Nick Saban has done some rotating with He talked 426 00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:16,679 Speaker 1: as recently as last week about how I don't know 427 00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:18,720 Speaker 1: how we feel at center right now, we're still a 428 00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:21,639 Speaker 1: little unsettled at center. Well, if he's telling you the truth, 429 00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:23,679 Speaker 1: and I think he is, doesn't really lie about his 430 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:26,080 Speaker 1: own team a whole lot at the press conferences, then 431 00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 1: get yourself in a situation where you earn the right 432 00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:30,119 Speaker 1: to rush the passer, you can't let him run on 433 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:33,040 Speaker 1: you seven yards a clip, and then you still earn 434 00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 1: the right to rush the passer. And how balanced can 435 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:39,480 Speaker 1: Miami be offensively? Everyone's excited about Derek King's return. I'm 436 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,040 Speaker 1: excited about Derek King's return, but see the thing about 437 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:47,480 Speaker 1: this is it's only exciting if he possesses the ability 438 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:50,639 Speaker 1: to do things other quarterbacks can't. And I'm talking about 439 00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:54,400 Speaker 1: today's version, not in the past. Today's version of Derek King. 440 00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:56,000 Speaker 1: The last time we saw him was laid out on 441 00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:58,399 Speaker 1: a field and he was getting carted off because the 442 00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:00,399 Speaker 1: season was over in the bowl game, and it's been 443 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:02,679 Speaker 1: well documented. I don't need to retell the story. But 444 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:05,520 Speaker 1: this is game action. This is not off season work 445 00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:08,320 Speaker 1: what did I just say summer workouts? And this is 446 00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:10,520 Speaker 1: not fall camp either. This is live bullets. They can 447 00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:12,400 Speaker 1: tackle you to the ground. In fact, they want to. 448 00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:16,280 Speaker 1: They want to hurt you. And so number one, when 449 00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 1: we talk about balance, we're not talking about stats around here. 450 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:21,320 Speaker 1: Is Alabama convinced that you'll run it or throw it 451 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 1: on virtually any down and distance. And secondly, do you 452 00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:28,679 Speaker 1: possess the ability to convince them you can hurt them 453 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:32,119 Speaker 1: with your legs and hurt them with your arm, because 454 00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:34,399 Speaker 1: a lot of times we go into these games and 455 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:37,800 Speaker 1: folks say, oh mobile quarterbacks, Nick Saban's worst nightmare, and 456 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:40,160 Speaker 1: they're over there saying, if this guy runs for sixty 457 00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:42,760 Speaker 1: three yards today, so be it. We're not about to 458 00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,119 Speaker 1: let him pop pass us over the top in the 459 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:48,760 Speaker 1: RPO game and burn us the way John Franklin, the 460 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,240 Speaker 1: third whoever it was Nick Marshall did back in the 461 00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:53,399 Speaker 1: day again starving, we're not letting that happen again. And 462 00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 1: so if he wants to run for fifty or sixty, 463 00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:58,359 Speaker 1: so be it. He's not beating us through the air. Well, 464 00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:00,560 Speaker 1: if you possess the ability to put more than one 465 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:02,200 Speaker 1: hundred on I'm rushing the ball, then all of a 466 00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:03,960 Speaker 1: sudden they do have to commit to it a little 467 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:07,159 Speaker 1: bit more so, Jesse, let's go ahead and take a 468 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:10,119 Speaker 1: look at what the model says about this game. I 469 00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:14,120 Speaker 1: was looking at this and early on in the kind 470 00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:15,919 Speaker 1: of spring summer months when they release some of the 471 00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:19,080 Speaker 1: games of the year, we noticed a trend, and it's 472 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,800 Speaker 1: not shocking. Bama was a little bit overrated relative to 473 00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:23,879 Speaker 1: what our numbers thought. So pretty much every point spread 474 00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:26,399 Speaker 1: right now in the futures market, the Vegas number is 475 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:28,840 Speaker 1: about a point to two points fatter than our number, 476 00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:31,840 Speaker 1: and it's no different here the Caesars line. The Vegas 477 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:35,720 Speaker 1: line is Alabama minus nineteen. Our number internally is Alabama 478 00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:40,439 Speaker 1: minus eighteen. I'm really really curious about the level of 479 00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:43,840 Speaker 1: efficiency Alabama's offense has to start this game, because I 480 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:45,720 Speaker 1: don't think it's going to be knife through hot butter 481 00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:48,560 Speaker 1: at all. But what I'm equally as excited to watch 482 00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,560 Speaker 1: is whether it's gonna matter, because man, I go back 483 00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 1: to last year and I remember watching Miami go up 484 00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:57,080 Speaker 1: against Clemson, and the most demoralizing aspect of that is 485 00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,159 Speaker 1: their receivers couldn't even get off the line. I mean, 486 00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: Clemson shut them down cold. And that was not an 487 00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:06,159 Speaker 1: elite Clemson secondary. This is a pretty elite Alabama defense, 488 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 1: specifically in the secondary. And so those perimeter matchups, the 489 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:14,000 Speaker 1: Josh Job and Jalen Armor, Daves, Brian Branch in the secondary, 490 00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:18,120 Speaker 1: those guys when you have to account for Will Anderson, who, 491 00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,080 Speaker 1: along with Tippodeau on the West Coast, may very well 492 00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:24,479 Speaker 1: be the best overall players, especially defensive players, in the country. 493 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:28,119 Speaker 1: I don't know how in the world, minus turnovers, minus 494 00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:30,760 Speaker 1: not offensive touchdowns, I don't know how we're finding Miami 495 00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:33,600 Speaker 1: getting into the mid to upper twenties range, which is 496 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:35,879 Speaker 1: where you would minimally have to be to win this game. 497 00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:38,480 Speaker 1: So we're not gonna take him to win. We'll take 498 00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:41,920 Speaker 1: Alabama to win. But what I do think is Miami 499 00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:45,280 Speaker 1: possesses enough ability to hang around. Maybe it's garbage time 500 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:47,400 Speaker 1: or maybe Alabama's stretching him at the end. I think 501 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,720 Speaker 1: they can hang around enough to cover barely. There's no 502 00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:52,040 Speaker 1: strong feel here, So we're gonna take Alabama to win, 503 00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:55,840 Speaker 1: but we will take Miami plus the nineteen. Again, there's 504 00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,280 Speaker 1: no strong feel because there's not a lot of skill 505 00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:01,119 Speaker 1: in predicting how that fourth quarter is gonna go. I 506 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:04,200 Speaker 1: don't think there's any skill in that. Actually, let's move on, boy. 507 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,680 Speaker 1: This game is This game is very enticing. We gave 508 00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:09,840 Speaker 1: serious consideration to going to this next game. We ended 509 00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:11,960 Speaker 1: up in Charlotte, but I really thought about this one 510 00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 1: Penn State at Wisconsin. This is not one of those 511 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 1: neutral site games. This is a true road environment. Whiskey 512 00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:20,919 Speaker 1: minus five and a half. That's the current number, and 513 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:23,840 Speaker 1: that number has gone up over about the last twenty 514 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,720 Speaker 1: four hours or so. This is a noon Eastern time 515 00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:29,320 Speaker 1: kickoff on Fox. Get the chores done in the morning, 516 00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,800 Speaker 1: get back home. This is not a situation where your 517 00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:36,080 Speaker 1: early window is a lot of secret, wet bag of 518 00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:38,560 Speaker 1: garbage type games and then you get three thirty window 519 00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:40,479 Speaker 1: that's when you got to be there. No, no, no, no, no. 520 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:42,640 Speaker 1: This is This is almost as good as it gets 521 00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:45,960 Speaker 1: the entire day. And I think it's the most consequential 522 00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:48,120 Speaker 1: game in Week one because you can paint a path 523 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:51,399 Speaker 1: for Clemson and Georgia. But there's gonna be a lot written, 524 00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:53,480 Speaker 1: there's gonna be a lot said about the outcome of 525 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:55,760 Speaker 1: this game, even if it's narrow twenty three twenty one. 526 00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:59,080 Speaker 1: Either way, there's a default setting. Maybe you've noticed it 527 00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:03,000 Speaker 1: with Penn State football, and I don't necessarily blame you 528 00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 1: for having it. But the default setting around Penn State 529 00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:09,560 Speaker 1: is it'll be close, but fill in the blank, and 530 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 1: your blank probably consists of, well, Sean Clifford against a 531 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:17,040 Speaker 1: really good defense on the road with a new offensive coordinator. 532 00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:19,440 Speaker 1: I don't think that he can overcome a good Wisconsin team. 533 00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,959 Speaker 1: That's probably what your default setting is. And even if 534 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:23,640 Speaker 1: you're a Penn State fan, half of you may hold 535 00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:25,760 Speaker 1: that default setting. But even if you don't, I don't 536 00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:27,439 Speaker 1: think you can blame a whole lot of people for 537 00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:30,360 Speaker 1: feeling that way. There are plenty of folks out there 538 00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,760 Speaker 1: you can find to tell you Sean Clifford's a good, 539 00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:36,719 Speaker 1: solid quarterback. There are infinitely fewer people that you can 540 00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:38,879 Speaker 1: find to tell you Sean Clifford, now that's a dog. 541 00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:41,280 Speaker 1: He'll get it done when you're in the foxhole, when 542 00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:44,600 Speaker 1: it's fourth quarter winning time. He is the Reggie Miller 543 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:48,520 Speaker 1: of State College PA. Not many people saying that could 544 00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:51,720 Speaker 1: it all change? Could Mike Eursicch formerly Tom Yursitch on 545 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,200 Speaker 1: this show? Could he be the magic elixir could get 546 00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:56,400 Speaker 1: a guy like Noah Kine back to full strength? Could 547 00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:59,120 Speaker 1: that be the difference, could be We'll see. Hey, that's 548 00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:02,240 Speaker 1: why they play the games. But it stands to reason 549 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:04,959 Speaker 1: there is a lot still to be proven for this 550 00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:07,280 Speaker 1: Penn State team and this Penn State offense. So if 551 00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:10,600 Speaker 1: it is a quarterback quarterback matchup, if it is a 552 00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,200 Speaker 1: shot for shot, your guy better than my guy in 553 00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:14,800 Speaker 1: the fourth quarter, I think a lot of you trust 554 00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:17,800 Speaker 1: Graham Mertz. Now I think there is and it may 555 00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:22,200 Speaker 1: be fair unfair, a lot more blind trust being invested 556 00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:25,040 Speaker 1: into Graham Mertz. But I get it because I remember 557 00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:27,639 Speaker 1: what people were saying last year, myself included, and then 558 00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:29,159 Speaker 1: it kind of went off the rails because they had 559 00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:31,439 Speaker 1: a ton of injury and COVID related issues where they 560 00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:33,639 Speaker 1: never had that full offense on the field. Well, we 561 00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:35,720 Speaker 1: get to see it now. All those guys are back, 562 00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:37,359 Speaker 1: A couple of them came back who didn't have to, 563 00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:39,320 Speaker 1: and so we get to see it now. So here's 564 00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:41,600 Speaker 1: the rub. I'm going to go back to Sean Clifford 565 00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:43,520 Speaker 1: for a second because that is the crux of this game. 566 00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:45,800 Speaker 1: To me. Do we really know what to expect? At 567 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:48,040 Speaker 1: all a lot of people have their profile. If Shan 568 00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:51,320 Speaker 1: Clifford already developed Penn State quarterback for those unfamiliar, and 569 00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:54,639 Speaker 1: it is kind of an incomplete player. He has a 570 00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:57,200 Speaker 1: lot of good, very little great in him. He'll make 571 00:26:57,240 --> 00:27:00,879 Speaker 1: mistakes at key moments, there's not enough consistency. That's the 572 00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:03,399 Speaker 1: profile now, because that's what we've seen. What I'm asking 573 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,800 Speaker 1: you is, is what we've seen an absolute indicator of 574 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:08,879 Speaker 1: what we're always going to get. Because I have not 575 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:11,679 Speaker 1: seen Sean Clifford in a Mike Heris at Shaw offense. 576 00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:15,200 Speaker 1: I haven't seen him at least recently with Noah Kane 577 00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:17,639 Speaker 1: back there at full strength. I haven't seen him play 578 00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:21,399 Speaker 1: with now a fully seasoned combination at wide receiver of 579 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:23,840 Speaker 1: Dotson and Parker Washington. I haven't seen that. Well. I 580 00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:25,280 Speaker 1: get to see it now. They're pretty darn good at 581 00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:27,840 Speaker 1: tight end too. And so what I'm saying is maybe 582 00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:29,520 Speaker 1: we get the same product we always got, and if 583 00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:33,120 Speaker 1: we do, then okay, the profile is complete. But surprises 584 00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:36,320 Speaker 1: have happened. Bigger surprises than this have happened. Penn State 585 00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:40,320 Speaker 1: having twenty four at a half this Saturday would be surprising. 586 00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:41,800 Speaker 1: I don't think it would be the biggest shock in 587 00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:44,240 Speaker 1: the world. How they score him, I don't know, But 588 00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:46,360 Speaker 1: what does a winning stat line look like for him? 589 00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:48,760 Speaker 1: It doesn't have to be thirty eight to forty five. 590 00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:51,720 Speaker 1: You know, this is not the mid twenty's big twelve. 591 00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:54,800 Speaker 1: If he is a nice, solid eighteen for twenty four, 592 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:58,000 Speaker 1: two hundred and fifteen yards, a goose egg in the 593 00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:00,960 Speaker 1: turnover column, that's good enough to have you right there. 594 00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:02,760 Speaker 1: And that's the kind of game that I think we're 595 00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:05,720 Speaker 1: going to see between Penn State and Wisconsin. So the 596 00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:07,840 Speaker 1: things I'm watching a couple of them here before we 597 00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:11,240 Speaker 1: start to make the prediction. Wisconsin's secondary. It's going to 598 00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:13,160 Speaker 1: be a fascinating matchup. They're good at all three levels. 599 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:16,480 Speaker 1: Wisconsin's good at all three levels. But that secondary matchup, 600 00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:19,200 Speaker 1: Penn State receivers have got to win them, at least 601 00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:20,920 Speaker 1: a critical amount of them. I mean, you've got to 602 00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:23,840 Speaker 1: be open and so Dotson can do that, Parker Washington 603 00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:25,920 Speaker 1: can do that. What they're worried about at Penn State 604 00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:28,399 Speaker 1: is behind that. How many of these guys can we 605 00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,840 Speaker 1: depend on? Got some names we like, They show flashes 606 00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:34,400 Speaker 1: in practice, but the old adage is we don't want 607 00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:36,080 Speaker 1: to put you on the field. Once you show us 608 00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:38,760 Speaker 1: you can do it right. We want you to show 609 00:28:38,840 --> 00:28:40,680 Speaker 1: us you've done it so much you can't do it wrong, 610 00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:41,920 Speaker 1: then we want to put you on the field. Well, 611 00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,000 Speaker 1: a lot of times you don't have that luxury. Not 612 00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:47,600 Speaker 1: everyone's Ohio State where they can afford to watch multiple 613 00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,760 Speaker 1: track speed athletes walk out of their receiver room. It's 614 00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:52,520 Speaker 1: still have the best receiver room in the country, but 615 00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:55,680 Speaker 1: that's point one point two flat out with this Penn 616 00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:58,040 Speaker 1: State team. What kind of sense of urgency do they 617 00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:00,760 Speaker 1: walk out of that tunnel with? Give what we saw 618 00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:04,480 Speaker 1: last year, given the uncertainty around the team, but given 619 00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:07,360 Speaker 1: the positive vibes, the willingness to buy in still from 620 00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:10,680 Speaker 1: this fan base, myself included, I'm willing to still buy in, 621 00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:12,840 Speaker 1: but man, you got to show me a sense of urgency. 622 00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:16,040 Speaker 1: This is going to be an incredibly hostile environment. This 623 00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:19,040 Speaker 1: is not a neutral site game. This is Camp Randall Stadium. 624 00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:22,680 Speaker 1: This is, in our opinion, a top ten Wisconsin team. 625 00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:25,760 Speaker 1: Don't care what the AP says. This is a program 626 00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:29,640 Speaker 1: with as good as shot at contending as any has 627 00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:33,040 Speaker 1: had in recent years, and they may have a very 628 00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,600 Speaker 1: very potent passing attack this year, which I don't think 629 00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:37,520 Speaker 1: we've ever said on the show about Wisconsin football. You 630 00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:40,480 Speaker 1: got to overcome all that. You've got to have mental toughness, 631 00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,680 Speaker 1: and average teams succumb to that. Good very good, great 632 00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:45,720 Speaker 1: teams they can overcome that kind of stuff. But it's 633 00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:48,120 Speaker 1: up to you because the default, like we talked about 634 00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:49,719 Speaker 1: on the front end, the back end, the default is 635 00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:52,320 Speaker 1: Wisconsin's got a huge edge here. They get to play 636 00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:54,080 Speaker 1: in their building and a lot of your first and 637 00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:56,320 Speaker 1: second year guys don't even know what crowd noise sounds like, 638 00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:57,920 Speaker 1: and so you're gonna have to deal with it. That 639 00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,200 Speaker 1: place is really hard to play. Even if they're making 640 00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:03,800 Speaker 1: it off at noon Eastern what time zones Madison, then 641 00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:05,760 Speaker 1: it's got to be Central time. Yeah, so either way, 642 00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:08,440 Speaker 1: it's early, but they'll be ready. Let's take a look, Jesse, 643 00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:10,920 Speaker 1: at what our model thinks about the game. Again. The 644 00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:13,800 Speaker 1: line right now out in the desert according to Caesars 645 00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:15,920 Speaker 1: is five or five and a half. When I went 646 00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:18,280 Speaker 1: on air, it was five and a half, and that's 647 00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:20,320 Speaker 1: moved up from four to four and a half as 648 00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:22,400 Speaker 1: of the last twenty four to forty eight hours. We 649 00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:25,480 Speaker 1: thought the number was right all along, we had Wisconsin 650 00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:29,000 Speaker 1: minus four and a half. Man, I gave serious consideration 651 00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:33,440 Speaker 1: to Penn State here. I even kind of segued to Jesse. 652 00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:36,440 Speaker 1: Jesse's from Penn State, and so I said, Jesse, what 653 00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:37,920 Speaker 1: do you want me to pick here? And then he 654 00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:40,320 Speaker 1: started as say Penn State. Baby. I said, Jesse, pretend 655 00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:44,200 Speaker 1: like everyone in your family depends on you making this 656 00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:46,280 Speaker 1: pick or else they do not get to eat again 657 00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:49,840 Speaker 1: for the rest of the month. And he said, Badgers win, 658 00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:52,040 Speaker 1: Penn State covers. And that's kind of where I am 659 00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:54,880 Speaker 1: right now. I'm going to take Wisconsin to win the game. 660 00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:57,640 Speaker 1: I think it's very very narrow. I think it'said either way. 661 00:30:57,680 --> 00:30:59,680 Speaker 1: It's a one possession game of five minutes to go. 662 00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:02,560 Speaker 1: It's anyone's game. But I think Wisconsin ends up winning 663 00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:04,920 Speaker 1: the game. Penn State covers the game. There's too much 664 00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:08,440 Speaker 1: similarity here, any strength that I talked about with Penn State. 665 00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:13,040 Speaker 1: There's too much matching point across the ball that I 666 00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:16,520 Speaker 1: can point out With Wisconsin. I want to remind you, 667 00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:19,280 Speaker 1: you know, they've had some shaky reports here and there 668 00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:22,240 Speaker 1: from one person I've talked to for Wisconsin's camp this fall, 669 00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:25,480 Speaker 1: But I mean by and large, they get the pieces 670 00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:28,040 Speaker 1: back they never really fully got to jail with last year. 671 00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,920 Speaker 1: Their passing game, I think can surprise some people this year. 672 00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:33,480 Speaker 1: Now I'm talking this year. This is about this Saturday. 673 00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:35,800 Speaker 1: Stands to reason if I'm right about this year, it 674 00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:38,239 Speaker 1: starts this Saturday. It's not going to be thirty eight 675 00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:42,800 Speaker 1: degrees up there yet, so prime conditions, prime atmosphere. I 676 00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:44,680 Speaker 1: think Wisconsin's going to find a way to get it done. 677 00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:46,880 Speaker 1: But I'm telling you, if I'm right about this, and 678 00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:49,880 Speaker 1: this is a narrow game, this is our number eight 679 00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:54,200 Speaker 1: team beating our number nine team by one possession at home. 680 00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:57,200 Speaker 1: We're not bumping Penn State if that does play out 681 00:31:57,200 --> 00:32:00,360 Speaker 1: that way. A couple of other games, and before we 682 00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:02,040 Speaker 1: even get to these games, I want to remind you 683 00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:04,680 Speaker 1: we're not doing LSU UCLA tonight. We're doing that one 684 00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:08,360 Speaker 1: Thursday night. We will do Notre Dame Florida State Thursday night. 685 00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:11,480 Speaker 1: So we are going to predict all the games. Indiana, Iowa, 686 00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:13,280 Speaker 1: We'll do that one Thursday night. There are a lot 687 00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:15,560 Speaker 1: of big games that we still have to get around to. 688 00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:19,240 Speaker 1: Bowling Green, Tennessee, No, probably not. They play Thursday night, 689 00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:22,360 Speaker 1: and so housekeeping note on that at the end of 690 00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:24,520 Speaker 1: the show. All right, let's talk about this Friday night game. 691 00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:28,360 Speaker 1: Though this one was really really intriguing. I gave consideration 692 00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:30,640 Speaker 1: to going to this one. Logistics did not work out. 693 00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:34,760 Speaker 1: But man, how about North Carolina lay in five and 694 00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:39,680 Speaker 1: a half at Virginia Tech. Again full houses in most 695 00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:42,120 Speaker 1: places across America. Well, if you can sell the tickets, 696 00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:44,600 Speaker 1: at least they don't have a problem with that. In Blacksburg, Virginia. 697 00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:47,520 Speaker 1: This is a Friday night six o'clock Eastern time kickoff 698 00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:50,560 Speaker 1: on ESPN, So you've got wall to wall. It starts 699 00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:53,680 Speaker 1: on Thursday Friday. This game we got a full slate. Saturday. 700 00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:56,480 Speaker 1: Sunday night is Notre Dame, Florida State, and then Labor 701 00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:59,440 Speaker 1: Day night in Atlanta. It is Louisville and it is 702 00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:03,600 Speaker 1: Old miss that is wall to wall, that is jam packed. 703 00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:05,880 Speaker 1: So let's talk about this game here. This is a 704 00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,040 Speaker 1: dynamics baseline. I know a lot of you may be 705 00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:10,080 Speaker 1: looking at this and you've looked at all the top ten, 706 00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:13,040 Speaker 1: top fifteen, top twenties, and you've seen the North Carolina 707 00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:15,840 Speaker 1: tar Heels, yet seen Virginia Tech. In fact, last time 708 00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:17,960 Speaker 1: we talked about Virginia Tech is when they upset the 709 00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:19,960 Speaker 1: Rama Noodle Express. At the very end of last year, 710 00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:22,400 Speaker 1: one of our most confident bets of the year was 711 00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:25,880 Speaker 1: Virginia and it just it was never close. I don't know. 712 00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:28,120 Speaker 1: It happened to us one time last year that we 713 00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:30,400 Speaker 1: just so whipped on a game, and it just so 714 00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:33,640 Speaker 1: happens it was against Virginia Tech. Are we salty about it? Yep, 715 00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:36,440 Speaker 1: we are. I'm not going to go as far as 716 00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:38,600 Speaker 1: to take it out on them with my pick, but 717 00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:40,440 Speaker 1: we're a little salty about it. But we've moved on. 718 00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:44,640 Speaker 1: So this is a dynamics play because I think if 719 00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:46,840 Speaker 1: this game were to be played in Week four at 720 00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:51,120 Speaker 1: North Carolina, it'd be heals minus two touchdowns minimum. But 721 00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:54,640 Speaker 1: right now there's uncertainty, and you have that fear that 722 00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:57,040 Speaker 1: there's going to be a wobbly tire on this offense 723 00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:58,480 Speaker 1: that goes out on the road. And this is the 724 00:33:58,520 --> 00:34:01,360 Speaker 1: kind of offense. It's not ground pound, and so if 725 00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:04,480 Speaker 1: things aren't fully calibrated and clicking on all cylinders, you 726 00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:07,920 Speaker 1: got the old crowbar and the bicycle spokes potential, you 727 00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:11,600 Speaker 1: fly over the handlebars and there's your face. It's street pizza, 728 00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:14,680 Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, it's a quagmire. It's thirteen 729 00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:18,200 Speaker 1: to six at halftime, and where's the offense. Everyone's got 730 00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:20,920 Speaker 1: that fear and the very back recesses of their mind, 731 00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:23,359 Speaker 1: and you got the home crowd to deal with, and 732 00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:25,520 Speaker 1: it's night. I don't know what that's ever mattered. But 733 00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:27,840 Speaker 1: when the sun goes down, apparently the home team plays 734 00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:30,560 Speaker 1: better football. And so it's only five and a half. 735 00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:32,600 Speaker 1: I'm going to show you in just a second with 736 00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:34,640 Speaker 1: the model thinks about it. But what should be the 737 00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:37,000 Speaker 1: deciding factor in this game for us? At least as 738 00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:40,160 Speaker 1: we see it is a glaring matchup advantage. I think 739 00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:43,640 Speaker 1: for North Carolina, Virginia Tech's wide receivers are gonna have 740 00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:45,960 Speaker 1: a field day against a lot of teams they play 741 00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:48,759 Speaker 1: this year. They've got the quarterback, for better or for worse. 742 00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:51,799 Speaker 1: We've got quarterback figured out there. He better not get hurt. 743 00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:54,080 Speaker 1: They got quarterback figured out there. But these receivers are 744 00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:56,239 Speaker 1: not bad. They're not bad players at all. But what's 745 00:34:56,280 --> 00:34:59,120 Speaker 1: going to happen is, let's make sure our screen wasn't 746 00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:01,399 Speaker 1: messed up there. That's going to happen is in this 747 00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:04,399 Speaker 1: particular matchup, I think North Carolina's got the corner play. 748 00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:06,440 Speaker 1: I think They've got the secondary play to match up 749 00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:09,279 Speaker 1: and if that is your fast ball for Virginia Tech 750 00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:13,239 Speaker 1: and North Carolina can just limit that thing. I am 751 00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:16,759 Speaker 1: not a believer that this Virginia Tech defense has made 752 00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:19,840 Speaker 1: any kind of significant strides from the over thirty points 753 00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:21,920 Speaker 1: per game they gave up on average last year. And 754 00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:24,719 Speaker 1: I think North Carolina, for all I care, they go 755 00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:28,040 Speaker 1: scoreless in the first quarter, they are eventually going to 756 00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:31,160 Speaker 1: find that groove. And when they do, because of that 757 00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,719 Speaker 1: matchup out why that is a vantage North Carolina. I 758 00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:35,839 Speaker 1: don't think West. I don't think Virginia Tech is gonna 759 00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:37,959 Speaker 1: be able to trade points with him. So Jesse, let's 760 00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:39,799 Speaker 1: take a look at what we think, and I'm gonna 761 00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:42,319 Speaker 1: show you what the model thinks. And this is contrarian 762 00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:45,080 Speaker 1: because you've seen this number at seven and eight and 763 00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:46,880 Speaker 1: then it's dropped all the way to five and a half. 764 00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:50,279 Speaker 1: But our number has maintained as it tends to do 765 00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:53,880 Speaker 1: at North Carolina minus seven. And I'm rolling with our model. 766 00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:56,720 Speaker 1: So I'm gonna take North Carolina to win. I'm gonna 767 00:35:56,960 --> 00:35:59,000 Speaker 1: probably expect them to taste their blood a little bit 768 00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:01,399 Speaker 1: early in this game. But the second half of this game, 769 00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:02,960 Speaker 1: I think we'll tell a much different story than the 770 00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:05,640 Speaker 1: first half. So give me North Carolina a whim and 771 00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:08,360 Speaker 1: we think North Carolina will cover the five and a half. 772 00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:10,560 Speaker 1: We'll take it all the way up to a touchdown. Actually, 773 00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:17,200 Speaker 1: what about as we move south significantly to Austin, Texas. 774 00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:20,479 Speaker 1: I'm just gonna wait. I'm kind. This is me being kind, Jesse. 775 00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:22,080 Speaker 1: I know you guys got a lot of elements there, 776 00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:23,799 Speaker 1: so we got all the time in the world. We 777 00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:26,600 Speaker 1: don't have a heart out on this show. Texas is 778 00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:30,800 Speaker 1: welcoming in Louisiana, Lafayette. I have made the executive decision 779 00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:33,200 Speaker 1: to call them Louisiana on the show. I know it 780 00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:36,520 Speaker 1: upsets a lot of people, but BILLI Napier follows us 781 00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:38,719 Speaker 1: on Twitter. We cannot take this risk, and so we 782 00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:42,160 Speaker 1: are taking Louisiana and we're marching them right into Austin, Texas. 783 00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:45,440 Speaker 1: This is not a trap game. Please stop calling this 784 00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:47,720 Speaker 1: a trap game. This is not sneaking up on anyone. 785 00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:51,160 Speaker 1: Everyone watched the Week one opener last year when they 786 00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:54,120 Speaker 1: went into Iowa State, into my house, into our house, 787 00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:59,400 Speaker 1: and they beat our cyclones no one has Louisiana sneaking 788 00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:02,680 Speaker 1: up on them. If Louisiana beats Texas Saturday, it's because 789 00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:05,920 Speaker 1: they were the better team and they overcame an incredible 790 00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:09,120 Speaker 1: road environment to do. So it's not a trap. Yeah, 791 00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:11,440 Speaker 1: y'all got to learn the definition what a trap game is. 792 00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:15,480 Speaker 1: I've barely heard anything about Louisiana the entire summer, and 793 00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:18,360 Speaker 1: they return every player that they return, like four hundred kids. 794 00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:20,400 Speaker 1: They got Billy Napier at the very top of a 795 00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:23,279 Speaker 1: lot of head coaching wish list, and it just other 796 00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:25,200 Speaker 1: than Alex Scarborough who did a really good feature on 797 00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:27,319 Speaker 1: him on ESPN dot com the other day, I just 798 00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:29,640 Speaker 1: hadn't heard a whole lot about him. Maybe I've had 799 00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:31,560 Speaker 1: my head in the sand, But I mean I do 800 00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:33,640 Speaker 1: this show a few times a week, so I tend 801 00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:36,080 Speaker 1: to think I've got my finger on the pulse. So 802 00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:38,320 Speaker 1: maybe they're sneaking around for some of you. I guarantee 803 00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:40,480 Speaker 1: that Steve Sarkisian can tell you everything you ever need 804 00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:43,240 Speaker 1: to know about this team. How will this whole Texas 805 00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:47,600 Speaker 1: quarterback rotation look? Well, there is somewhat of a skilled 806 00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:50,280 Speaker 1: way to answer this question. We got a starter announced, 807 00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:53,520 Speaker 1: so we know Hudson cars the starter. The other skill 808 00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:55,480 Speaker 1: is if I'm Steve Sarkisian, I have an idea of 809 00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:58,600 Speaker 1: what I want to do. I don't think it's decided though, 810 00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:00,759 Speaker 1: Like it's decided who's going to take the field to start. 811 00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:03,560 Speaker 1: But there's still a lot of conversation in Austin about 812 00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:07,880 Speaker 1: how many series will Casey Thompson get. Certainly, if this 813 00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:10,200 Speaker 1: was a battle this deep into camp, then it truly 814 00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:12,719 Speaker 1: not totally decided. Hey, that may be the case man. 815 00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:16,520 Speaker 1: But even having said that, Hudson Card's gonna determine how 816 00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:19,160 Speaker 1: this goes. You could go into a game and you 817 00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:21,000 Speaker 1: can have it nice and charted out. I'm gonna get 818 00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:23,680 Speaker 1: Casey Thompson one series in the first quarter. I'm gonna 819 00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:25,439 Speaker 1: get him a couple of series before half. So three 820 00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:29,200 Speaker 1: series for Casey Thompson. Well, all right, scenario for you, 821 00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:32,640 Speaker 1: Hudson Card is thirteen for fifteen with two touchdowns on 822 00:38:32,680 --> 00:38:35,000 Speaker 1: two hundred yards passing already at the end of the 823 00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:38,239 Speaker 1: first quarter. Is he coming out? No answer is no, 824 00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:41,440 Speaker 1: he's not coming out. So your quarterback, you're starting quarterback, 825 00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:45,120 Speaker 1: will determine how the rotation works. If there is a rotation, Also, 826 00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:49,640 Speaker 1: I've had from the from the I've got an angle crowd, 827 00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:52,879 Speaker 1: I've had a lot of people say this line's too big. Well, 828 00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:55,120 Speaker 1: it has come down significantly. I think it opened at 829 00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:57,799 Speaker 1: thirteen and it's down to like eight. Now we're gonna 830 00:38:57,800 --> 00:38:59,319 Speaker 1: take a look at it in a second. I've had 831 00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:02,799 Speaker 1: that angle. Tell me, Oh, Louisiana's got this game, I say, 832 00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:07,760 Speaker 1: extremely interesting, Why is it? Well, Billy and Napier Okay, 833 00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:10,640 Speaker 1: odds makers know who he is. Well, remember the Iowa 834 00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:12,960 Speaker 1: State game last year they upset I was to Yeah, yeah, 835 00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:15,319 Speaker 1: odds makers are well aware of that. Well, you know 836 00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:18,600 Speaker 1: Texas has a new staff. That's cool. My point is, 837 00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,360 Speaker 1: have you just revealed any information to me that the 838 00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:23,680 Speaker 1: people who put that number out are not privy to 839 00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:27,319 Speaker 1: Because if you didn't reveal any information to me that's new, 840 00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:29,759 Speaker 1: you don't have an angle. You just have stuff that 841 00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:32,479 Speaker 1: you know. So right now, Jesse effect, let's go ahead 842 00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:34,680 Speaker 1: and take a look at it. The Vegas number is 843 00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:36,839 Speaker 1: sitting there at eight, so it's there to be had. 844 00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:40,000 Speaker 1: If you are confident in Louisiana, they're giving you not 845 00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:42,640 Speaker 1: only some points, they're giving you well more than the 846 00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:45,400 Speaker 1: standard touchdown. They're giving you eight points there. And so 847 00:39:45,640 --> 00:39:48,759 Speaker 1: I thought for all the world as recently as two 848 00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:51,319 Speaker 1: weeks ago, that I was going to be on the 849 00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:54,160 Speaker 1: outright upset here. I want to be cool, I want 850 00:39:54,160 --> 00:39:56,719 Speaker 1: to be the guy who overthought the room. But I'm 851 00:39:56,760 --> 00:39:59,680 Speaker 1: not because we got a little problem. And the problem 852 00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:02,719 Speaker 1: is and the problem is one hundred thousand folks, and 853 00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:06,040 Speaker 1: the problem is a far superior talent roster with better 854 00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:09,880 Speaker 1: leadership now even in year one. And here's the glaring mismatch. 855 00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:13,200 Speaker 1: The glaring mismatch is the depth and size of the 856 00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:16,640 Speaker 1: Texas defensive front against this crew that Louisiana is about 857 00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:19,120 Speaker 1: to take in there. This is a very solid football team. 858 00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:21,000 Speaker 1: This is better than a lot of teams Texas will 859 00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:23,000 Speaker 1: face in the Big Twelve this year. But there is 860 00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:25,359 Speaker 1: a matchup that is going to become more and more 861 00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:28,000 Speaker 1: glaring as the afternoon goes on. And then on the 862 00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:31,280 Speaker 1: other side, if all else fails, if our guy Xavier 863 00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:33,960 Speaker 1: Worthy doesn't hang four scores, they can just hand the 864 00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:36,360 Speaker 1: ball off. And it may not work in the first quarter, 865 00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:39,000 Speaker 1: and it may not work in the third quarter, but eventually, 866 00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:42,080 Speaker 1: late third quarter, early fourth quarter, one yard turns into 867 00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:45,439 Speaker 1: four yards, four yards turns into seven yards and even 868 00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:48,560 Speaker 1: if it's boring at times, Texas, I think is gonna 869 00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:52,200 Speaker 1: win this game. And then, in a somewhat surprising fashion 870 00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:54,440 Speaker 1: for apparently a lot of you, I think Texas is 871 00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:56,359 Speaker 1: gonna win it and they're gonna cover it. I think 872 00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:58,520 Speaker 1: they're gonna win the game by double digits. And our 873 00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:01,520 Speaker 1: model almost agree. It's got it at minus nine, So 874 00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:04,279 Speaker 1: our model actually likes Texas to win and cover as well. 875 00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:09,160 Speaker 1: My point, as I made earlier in the week, that 876 00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:13,120 Speaker 1: I want to reiterate right now. It's okay. If you're 877 00:41:13,120 --> 00:41:15,520 Speaker 1: looking at this and you're saying Texas is going to 878 00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:19,080 Speaker 1: get beaten, that's fine. It may very well happen a 879 00:41:19,120 --> 00:41:22,279 Speaker 1: week one crazy anything can happen. But my point is 880 00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:26,320 Speaker 1: if they don't get beat and you're calling for the upset, 881 00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:29,400 Speaker 1: don't be coming in the chat on Sunday night and saying, 882 00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:31,920 Speaker 1: I don't know why everyone's making such a big deal 883 00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:35,160 Speaker 1: about Texas winning. It was just Louisiana Lafayette. It's just 884 00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:37,760 Speaker 1: a G five team. Can't even find it on a map. 885 00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,800 Speaker 1: Can't do both of those, You can't do both. And also, 886 00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:44,160 Speaker 1: if you expect Texas to well, actually that doesn't work 887 00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:45,960 Speaker 1: the other way. I should have shut up. So just 888 00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:48,200 Speaker 1: forget about the last ten seconds of your life what 889 00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:51,000 Speaker 1: I just said. Gohes, don't be uh, I'm not gonna 890 00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:53,000 Speaker 1: edit that out. Don't be calling for the upset and 891 00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:55,200 Speaker 1: then pooh pooh the win when Texas gets it if 892 00:41:55,239 --> 00:41:57,680 Speaker 1: they do. That's all I'm saying. Or let's roll on here. 893 00:41:57,840 --> 00:42:01,560 Speaker 1: I got to remember how keeping note h k N. 894 00:42:01,600 --> 00:42:03,200 Speaker 1: I gotta remember to tell you something before we go 895 00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:06,440 Speaker 1: off the air. I remember what it was, all right. 896 00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:10,600 Speaker 1: So some things that in your normal day to day life, 897 00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:12,720 Speaker 1: you're just driving around, you're at the office, you're daydreaming 898 00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:14,719 Speaker 1: about college football because it beats whatever else you're doing 899 00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:17,520 Speaker 1: in your life. Some things that just pop in your head. Well, 900 00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:19,520 Speaker 1: my mind works the same way. Or maybe I'm the 901 00:42:19,560 --> 00:42:21,040 Speaker 1: only one and the rest of you are looking at 902 00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:22,799 Speaker 1: me like I'm psychotic right now. But I got some 903 00:42:22,800 --> 00:42:25,279 Speaker 1: stuff I'm looking forward to. This stuff does not fit 904 00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:28,239 Speaker 1: necessarily nice and neatly in a game preview, but man, 905 00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:30,200 Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to some of this. Ohio State at 906 00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:33,799 Speaker 1: Minnesota on Thursday night. CJ. Stroud is a starting quarterback there, 907 00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:35,919 Speaker 1: so number one I'm excited to see him, but number two. 908 00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:38,880 Speaker 1: Just because you're starting quarterback doesn't mean it's your team. 909 00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:42,120 Speaker 1: But maybe it is your team. See, I'm very, very 910 00:42:42,160 --> 00:42:46,239 Speaker 1: interested to watch Ohio State just function offensively. They got 911 00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:49,120 Speaker 1: all the skill and weaponry in the world. They got 912 00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:52,600 Speaker 1: a loaded backfield that I think will find its groove 913 00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:55,040 Speaker 1: a little bit later in the year. Very interesting to 914 00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:57,680 Speaker 1: see how much they play Trevion Henderson in game one, 915 00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:00,320 Speaker 1: game two, Game three versus you know in no remember 916 00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:03,280 Speaker 1: pass pro stuff like that. I mean, it's just hard 917 00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:06,319 Speaker 1: to have a new starter at quarterback and also put 918 00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:09,960 Speaker 1: young tailbacks out there because of the pass protection issues 919 00:43:10,120 --> 00:43:12,640 Speaker 1: and because of the limited ability and the limited leeway 920 00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:14,799 Speaker 1: that maybe sometimes you give a young quarterback. I'm very 921 00:43:14,800 --> 00:43:17,719 Speaker 1: excited to see that because if it's not his team yet, 922 00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:21,719 Speaker 1: eventually if CJ. Strodeerr guy, they'll be that synergy point 923 00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:23,759 Speaker 1: where it is his team. It's going to be fun 924 00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:26,279 Speaker 1: to watch. But some of that stuff takes a little while. 925 00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:28,040 Speaker 1: You could see this with Obama and Bryce Young for 926 00:43:28,080 --> 00:43:29,600 Speaker 1: all we know. I don't know how it's going to 927 00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:32,120 Speaker 1: pan out. That's why I'm excited to watch it. And 928 00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:34,000 Speaker 1: it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if 929 00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:36,040 Speaker 1: Ohio State struggled a little bit out of the gate. 930 00:43:36,200 --> 00:43:38,799 Speaker 1: That's not the worst thing in the world. That North 931 00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:41,200 Speaker 1: Carolina Virginia Tech game, which we just covered a second 932 00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:43,840 Speaker 1: to go. I can't wait to see what kind of 933 00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:46,960 Speaker 1: team I mean, I guess comes out of the visiting tunnel. 934 00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:48,879 Speaker 1: I cannot wait to see what kind of team comes 935 00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:51,879 Speaker 1: out of that visiting tunnel in Blacksburg, Virginia Friday night 936 00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:54,520 Speaker 1: against Virginia Tech. So I remember a couple of years ago, 937 00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:57,279 Speaker 1: I think it was twenty seventh team Clemson went up 938 00:43:57,280 --> 00:44:00,399 Speaker 1: there and it was one of the best producer games 939 00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:03,479 Speaker 1: I've ever seen with ESPN. They really hyped the home 940 00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:06,520 Speaker 1: field aspect, and it's still available on YouTube. I think 941 00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:09,799 Speaker 1: just the video of the pregame is on YouTube. And 942 00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:13,080 Speaker 1: that entrance and inner Sandman, I think we're looking at 943 00:44:13,080 --> 00:44:16,400 Speaker 1: it right here. Awesome environment and you watch from home, 944 00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:19,400 Speaker 1: and especially if you're in person, you're saying, I can't 945 00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:22,160 Speaker 1: believe that a road team is about to come in 946 00:44:22,200 --> 00:44:25,000 Speaker 1: here with grown men jumping around in Turkey outfits to 947 00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:27,239 Speaker 1: the tune of sixty five thousand or seventy thousand, I 948 00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:29,200 Speaker 1: can't believe a team's going to come in here and 949 00:44:29,239 --> 00:44:31,759 Speaker 1: I actually think they're about to withstand this environment. And 950 00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:34,799 Speaker 1: then Clemson came in and they took their hand and 951 00:44:34,840 --> 00:44:37,080 Speaker 1: they reached over to the volume button and they turned 952 00:44:37,120 --> 00:44:40,480 Speaker 1: it down. They took the lead immediately. They shut the 953 00:44:40,520 --> 00:44:42,600 Speaker 1: crowd up. They were never a fact of the rest 954 00:44:42,640 --> 00:44:45,879 Speaker 1: of the night, and Clemson cruised comfortably. That's what great 955 00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:48,120 Speaker 1: teams do, that's what some really good teams can do. 956 00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:51,600 Speaker 1: At the beginning of the season, North Carolina fancies themselves 957 00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,839 Speaker 1: as a program that is either there or on the 958 00:44:54,880 --> 00:44:57,560 Speaker 1: precipice of being there. This is a game you may 959 00:44:57,600 --> 00:44:59,200 Speaker 1: not look back on a few months from now. They 960 00:44:59,280 --> 00:45:02,080 Speaker 1: win it and cut like we think they will. For 961 00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:04,000 Speaker 1: all we know, Virginia Tech would be a five hundred 962 00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:06,840 Speaker 1: team at best this year, but they're not five hundred 963 00:45:06,920 --> 00:45:09,000 Speaker 1: right now. They think they got the entire world in 964 00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:11,279 Speaker 1: front of them. That crowd does too. And if North 965 00:45:11,280 --> 00:45:14,680 Speaker 1: Carolina goes in there and they silence that environment and 966 00:45:14,760 --> 00:45:16,960 Speaker 1: they take control of a game like we've seen elite 967 00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:20,240 Speaker 1: teams do in the past, that's a signifier. That's a sign, 968 00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:22,200 Speaker 1: that's something to tuck away. They didn't beat the most 969 00:45:22,239 --> 00:45:24,640 Speaker 1: talented team in the world, but they did something that 970 00:45:24,800 --> 00:45:27,280 Speaker 1: is a hallmark of teams that are on the rise 971 00:45:27,560 --> 00:45:30,839 Speaker 1: to eventual Tier two, Tier one type status. Cannot wait 972 00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:33,400 Speaker 1: to watch that. What about Penn State at Wisconsin another 973 00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:35,080 Speaker 1: game we just went over, but I left a little 974 00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:39,279 Speaker 1: bit on the table. Apparently I can't wait in this 975 00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:42,560 Speaker 1: Penn State Wisconsin game for the few hinge moments because 976 00:45:42,560 --> 00:45:46,360 Speaker 1: that's absolutely what these games come down to. This probably 977 00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:49,200 Speaker 1: a little bit older school looking big ten game. It's 978 00:45:49,239 --> 00:45:51,799 Speaker 1: not forty four to ten, it's nothing like that. There 979 00:45:51,840 --> 00:45:55,400 Speaker 1: are a few hinge plays, bob plays, bounce of ball plays. 980 00:45:55,520 --> 00:45:58,239 Speaker 1: It could be one bounce, it could be one block, 981 00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:00,239 Speaker 1: it could be one fumble, it could be one two 982 00:46:00,320 --> 00:46:03,279 Speaker 1: yards either way that end up determining a game, and 983 00:46:03,320 --> 00:46:06,520 Speaker 1: then looking at the wild swing in perception off of 984 00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:10,120 Speaker 1: those just microscopic, tiny fractions of benches here and there, 985 00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:14,279 Speaker 1: because whichever team capitalizes on those one or two or 986 00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:17,480 Speaker 1: three hinge plays that will determine this game, they're going 987 00:46:17,560 --> 00:46:19,680 Speaker 1: to capitalize on it to the tune of being shot 988 00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:21,920 Speaker 1: out of a cannon into the twenty twenty one season, 989 00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:23,960 Speaker 1: and they're going to be taken to a different level 990 00:46:24,120 --> 00:46:26,920 Speaker 1: in terms of the national perception because Penn State. If 991 00:46:26,920 --> 00:46:29,120 Speaker 1: they win that thing, they got Auburn white out in 992 00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:30,759 Speaker 1: a couple of weeks, they'll be favored there and then 993 00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:33,000 Speaker 1: they'll be off to the races. Wisconsin's got a couple 994 00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:35,040 Speaker 1: more big time games in the first month of the season, 995 00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:37,800 Speaker 1: but they'll be off to the races. Really interested to 996 00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:40,799 Speaker 1: see which team capitalizes on that, and then the more 997 00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:44,040 Speaker 1: sadistic among us are also interested to see which wounded 998 00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:46,520 Speaker 1: animal walks out of Week one with a loss and 999 00:46:46,640 --> 00:46:48,640 Speaker 1: having to go into must win mode in September. That's 1000 00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:51,200 Speaker 1: always fun too. What about the first game we talked 1001 00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:55,239 Speaker 1: about tonight? What about Georgia and Clemson? J T. Daniels 1002 00:46:55,400 --> 00:46:58,279 Speaker 1: one of the biggest moments of his life, player or 1003 00:46:58,320 --> 00:47:01,600 Speaker 1: otherwise is this Saturday night. You can rep it all 1004 00:47:01,640 --> 00:47:04,319 Speaker 1: you want to, you can study film all you want to, 1005 00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:07,040 Speaker 1: you can go through summer conditioning, you can talk to 1006 00:47:07,120 --> 00:47:09,400 Speaker 1: your coaching staff, you can talk to your position groups, 1007 00:47:09,440 --> 00:47:11,759 Speaker 1: and you can even scrimmage and fall camp. But we 1008 00:47:11,880 --> 00:47:14,640 Speaker 1: all know there's eventually going to come a time where 1009 00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:17,680 Speaker 1: a crowd is it full throat and it's Saturday night, 1010 00:47:17,719 --> 00:47:20,240 Speaker 1: Week one, and you're huddled up there for your last 1011 00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:24,080 Speaker 1: instructions before you break it and you take the field. 1012 00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:27,720 Speaker 1: That's the beginning of a football season. Where's your mind 1013 00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:30,359 Speaker 1: at in that moment? As a quarterback, there is such 1014 00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:34,239 Speaker 1: immense pressure on you at this level, you can't simulate it. 1015 00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:37,200 Speaker 1: Where's your mind at that moment? Are you locked in? 1016 00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:39,640 Speaker 1: Are you like Kevin Costner? And for love of the game, 1017 00:47:39,880 --> 00:47:42,279 Speaker 1: do you just fine tune the mechanism where you shut 1018 00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:45,239 Speaker 1: the noise out? Or is the noise there? I'll be 1019 00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:47,000 Speaker 1: on the sideline. I don't have to focus like that. 1020 00:47:47,080 --> 00:47:48,400 Speaker 1: I can hear that noise. But if you're on the 1021 00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:51,200 Speaker 1: field and you got that exact same experience I got, 1022 00:47:51,719 --> 00:47:53,880 Speaker 1: you could get to capitated. You can't have that. You 1023 00:47:53,960 --> 00:47:55,520 Speaker 1: turn the ball over, You got all kinds of things 1024 00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:59,920 Speaker 1: that go haywire, And the functionality of an offense is 1025 00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:03,120 Speaker 1: totally dependent on that quarterback being able to get to 1026 00:48:03,160 --> 00:48:05,480 Speaker 1: a place mentally that very few people can get to. 1027 00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:07,799 Speaker 1: Truly hard to play this game, surely hard to play 1028 00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:10,120 Speaker 1: that position. And at this level it's a little bit 1029 00:48:10,160 --> 00:48:12,440 Speaker 1: different because you deal with stuff you don't deal with 1030 00:48:12,480 --> 00:48:14,719 Speaker 1: in a D three environment. They're not talking about you 1031 00:48:15,000 --> 00:48:17,399 Speaker 1: eight days a week on radio at a D three 1032 00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:19,839 Speaker 1: level school, you're not dealing with seventy five or eighty 1033 00:48:19,840 --> 00:48:22,360 Speaker 1: thousand people at that level. You are at this level, 1034 00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:25,319 Speaker 1: it's a privilege to play under that pressure, but man, 1035 00:48:25,360 --> 00:48:28,600 Speaker 1: it's a pressure cooking. Nonetheless, JT. Daniels that time is 1036 00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:31,120 Speaker 1: very soon at hand for him, can't wait to see 1037 00:48:31,120 --> 00:48:36,920 Speaker 1: how he handles it. And lastly, Louisiana Lafayette at Texas 1038 00:48:36,960 --> 00:48:40,840 Speaker 1: just touched on this kind of the same deal, isn't 1039 00:48:40,840 --> 00:48:43,800 Speaker 1: it as the whole JT. Daniels dynamic. There's been a 1040 00:48:43,840 --> 00:48:45,400 Speaker 1: lot of talk about Sark. There's been a lot of 1041 00:48:45,440 --> 00:48:47,520 Speaker 1: talk about this quarterback battle. There's been a lot of 1042 00:48:47,560 --> 00:48:50,160 Speaker 1: talk about whether this roster's going to be good enough, 1043 00:48:50,200 --> 00:48:52,520 Speaker 1: and whether this staff's going to be good enough, whether 1044 00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:54,239 Speaker 1: the starting quarterback is going to be good enough. Whoever 1045 00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:57,279 Speaker 1: he chooses. There is good news or bad news though 1046 00:48:57,360 --> 00:49:00,840 Speaker 1: in every football season, depending on what your perspective is, 1047 00:49:00,880 --> 00:49:03,520 Speaker 1: and that is just that the season is eventually going 1048 00:49:03,560 --> 00:49:05,480 Speaker 1: to arrive. And at that point, it doesn't matter what 1049 00:49:05,520 --> 00:49:09,239 Speaker 1: anyone says. It doesn't matter if they're overly critical, overly praiseworthy. 1050 00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:13,120 Speaker 1: It's good news if you possess the ability to silence 1051 00:49:13,160 --> 00:49:16,359 Speaker 1: all your doubters, make their opinion irrelevant. It's bad news 1052 00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:18,439 Speaker 1: if you're going to validate everything negative that they said 1053 00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:20,640 Speaker 1: about you over the course of the past eight or 1054 00:49:20,640 --> 00:49:23,200 Speaker 1: so months. And that in and of itself is what 1055 00:49:23,239 --> 00:49:26,000 Speaker 1: I look forward to with this Texas Louisiana game, because 1056 00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:28,640 Speaker 1: we're rapidly approaching the time to be at hand where 1057 00:49:28,640 --> 00:49:30,839 Speaker 1: it doesn't matter what people are saying, because we got 1058 00:49:30,840 --> 00:49:33,439 Speaker 1: a game every six and a half days, and now 1059 00:49:33,480 --> 00:49:35,799 Speaker 1: we get to find out does Hudson Card have what 1060 00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:38,920 Speaker 1: it takes? Was that quarterback battle really a battle of 1061 00:49:38,960 --> 00:49:41,360 Speaker 1: two guys who were capable of winning? Or was it 1062 00:49:41,360 --> 00:49:43,640 Speaker 1: a battle of the lesser I don't want to say 1063 00:49:43,719 --> 00:49:46,040 Speaker 1: lesser of two evils already did that one time, but 1064 00:49:46,680 --> 00:49:49,799 Speaker 1: you know, the lesser of two average options. What kind 1065 00:49:49,800 --> 00:49:52,600 Speaker 1: of quarterback situation do we have there? Aside from Xavier 1066 00:49:52,640 --> 00:49:54,920 Speaker 1: Worthy in Whittington, I mean, Josh Moore, do we have 1067 00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:58,360 Speaker 1: guys who can emerge as game changing wide receivers. We 1068 00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:00,080 Speaker 1: get to find all that out now. So I'm looking 1069 00:50:00,120 --> 00:50:03,840 Speaker 1: forward to all that. Okay, I'm so proud cause, unlike 1070 00:50:03,880 --> 00:50:05,960 Speaker 1: the other night where I forgot to do an entire segment, 1071 00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:11,359 Speaker 1: actually remembered our housekeeping note. So as you know this 1072 00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:14,680 Speaker 1: schedules all over the place this week. So our schedule 1073 00:50:14,760 --> 00:50:16,560 Speaker 1: is all over the place this week. Now, after we 1074 00:50:16,640 --> 00:50:19,640 Speaker 1: get out of week one, it's always Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday night, 1075 00:50:19,719 --> 00:50:23,680 Speaker 1: eight eastern seventh Central. However, because we have a bunch 1076 00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:25,920 Speaker 1: of teams kicking off a bunch of different times. This 1077 00:50:26,080 --> 00:50:29,120 Speaker 1: Thursday night, we are starting the show an hour early, 1078 00:50:29,400 --> 00:50:32,239 Speaker 1: seven eastern sixth Central. We'll get you out of here 1079 00:50:32,280 --> 00:50:34,560 Speaker 1: in time to watch Ohio State Tennessee's playing, a lot 1080 00:50:34,560 --> 00:50:38,680 Speaker 1: of teams are playing. And then on Sunday night, I've 1081 00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:41,799 Speaker 1: got a quick morning flight back here, hopefully have most 1082 00:50:41,840 --> 00:50:43,680 Speaker 1: of the show already put together because we're going to 1083 00:50:43,719 --> 00:50:46,600 Speaker 1: start an hour early on that night too. So Thursday 1084 00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:51,319 Speaker 1: and Sunday night, seven eastern sixth Central, start times. Tell 1085 00:50:51,360 --> 00:50:54,120 Speaker 1: your uncle, tell your aunt, tell your friends, and we 1086 00:50:54,160 --> 00:50:56,359 Speaker 1: are probably going to have the biggest cross that we've 1087 00:50:56,360 --> 00:50:58,719 Speaker 1: ever had on the show. So I really appreciate you 1088 00:50:58,760 --> 00:51:00,560 Speaker 1: guys tuning in. You got a cat any sports and 1089 00:51:00,560 --> 00:51:02,880 Speaker 1: outdoors on board, and you've got a whole lot of 1090 00:51:02,880 --> 00:51:06,279 Speaker 1: things happening before us. Make sure can't stress it enough. 1091 00:51:06,440 --> 00:51:09,520 Speaker 1: You're following those Instagram and Twitter accounts at late kick Josh. 1092 00:51:09,920 --> 00:51:11,759 Speaker 1: You're going to be rewarded for that before the end 1093 00:51:11,760 --> 00:51:14,680 Speaker 1: of this week, so make sure you're following. There. Can't 1094 00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:16,919 Speaker 1: really say much more because it's not associated with the show, 1095 00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:18,360 Speaker 1: so I can't say it, but make sure you're following. 1096 00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:21,120 Speaker 1: You got late kick Josh for director Colin, for our 1097 00:51:21,280 --> 00:51:23,680 Speaker 1: entire crew in Connecticut. Thank you so much for watching 1098 00:51:23,719 --> 00:51:25,880 Speaker 1: on Josh Baatee. Have yourselves a great rest of the 1099 00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:27,000 Speaker 1: evening and God Books